Month: March 2020

Afternoon statistics – Difficulties of data collection – Non-solitary hiking – Rodney Howard Browne’s punishment – Another unexpected recovery – Fortuitous finds in the stores – Speculations about potential increase in suicides – The goats of Llandudno – The homeless in Los Angeles and Seattle

Today’s statistics as of 4:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 846,156; # of deaths worldwide: 41,494; # of cases U.S.: 181,099; # of deaths U.S.: 3,606.   Italy today saw the lowest rate of increase that it has experienced in the past two weeks.  In China the number of cases still active continues to decline – assuming, of course, one can believe their data.  If they are lying they are at any rate doing so very consistently; the data they give presents a situation in which some new cases occur every day and some deaths as well, but in which generally the rate of increase is shrinking and the aggregate number still afflicted with the disease is declining.  By their own showing, they still have quite a way to go.  Life in Wuhan is getting back to normal; shops are re-opening and food is being transported with greater ease than before.  Nonetheless it is possible that the death count is far higher than claimed; in Wuhan alone some estimates are for 42,000.  Experts say that the count may be further skewed because asymptomatic people may not be included.  That seems probable enough; if they are asymptomatic, how is it possible to know whether they have the virus or not?  For that matter, I myself might have contracted the virus without being aware of it, since it can take up to two weeks following incubation before the symptoms appear; without testing, there is no way to tell, and it simply isn’t practical to test everyone. 

I hiked with the Vigorous Hikers in the area around Bolivar Heights and Loudoun Heights.  I was in two minds about participating:  I wasn’t sure whether I was violating the stay-at-home order (it permits going outside for exercise but it’s unclear regarding the extent one can be out and also the extent one can drive to a trailhead or park), but it was very pleasant to be able to hike with friends after being on the trails in solitude for a week.  The stay-at-home order for Virginia has shut down beaches, and no in-person classes may be held at colleges and universities.  But there are no restrictions for travel for the purposes of recreation, provided one observes social distancing with anyone else he or she may encounter.  Maryland’s stay-at-home order is more stringent; it prohibits people from driving out of state.  But I don’t see how that can enforced without putting up some sort of guard on every road that crosses a state border – and there are dozens of them.  Other than that, it does allow travel for the purposes of exercise.

MC was among the group and we ruefully recalled our conversation of four weeks ago, when France had 204 cases, and how we both felt inclined to believe that the concerns of the experts were over-inflated.  In four short weeks the number of France’s affected population is approaching one in a thousand.  The mortality rate there is over 6½%.  The mortality rate in the U.S. is under 2% — so far, that is.  But since a mere 3% of the people who contracted the virus have recovered and the remainder are still fighting the disease, that figure may alter.

Rodney Howard-Browne was arrested for his gross disregard of the safety of his congregation and his fellow countrymen at large; but since he was released a bare 40 minutes later after putting up a $500 bond, it does not appear that he underwent any great privations for his misconduct. 

Yet another elderly Italian survivor:  Italica Grondona, who tested positive for the virus but whose symptoms were mild, has completely recovered.  She is 102.  And there is a veteran in Oregon, Bill Kelly, who has also recovered, in spite of being 95.

Some useful finds at the stores today.  No wipes; I suppose that’s too much to expect.  But I picked up a package of paper towels and also some rubbing alcohol, which means I can make disinfecting wipes of my own.  The bottle of rubbing alcohol that I bought was the last one on the shelf; it will probably be a while before it gets restocked.

Query:  will the suicide rate go up as a result of so much enforced solitude?  It seems possible, indeed likely.  Ditto for domestic homicides, with so many families forced to live at close quarters and never able to get away from one another.

A truly bizarre episode:  the coastal town of Llandudno has been overrun by a herd of wild goats as a result of the lockdown.  With hardly anyone in the town able to venture onto the streets on account of the lockdown, the goats have descended from the nearby mountains to snack on the hedges that border the gardens, as well as the grass and the flower beds in the gardens themselves. 

The homeless of Los Angeles and Seattle are being infected by the virus.  It has been only a matter of time.  Officials fear that it will sweep like wildfire among them; they are particularly vulnerable, since in general they are subject to many conditions (diabetes, heart disease, lung disease) that can weaken their resistance.

Morning statistics – Canadian website about COVID-19 – Rodney Howard Browne – Trump’s belated prudence – Spring break and aftermath – Laissez-faire attitude of Sweden and Belarus – An unexpected recovery – Liberty University – Field hospital in Manhattan – Evening statistics – Travel plans unravel

Today’s statistics as of 7:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 732,153; # of deaths worldwide: 34,686; # of cases U.S.: 143,055; # of deaths U.S.: 2,513.  Almost half of the American cases are in New York (both city and state).  In China the number of cases still active is actually under 3000 now, so that is one bright spot.  South Korea, similarly, has flattered its curve, to use a phrase that had been making the rounds for the past several weeks.  There are hopes that both Italy and Spain have now reached the peak, but that is far from certain.

Canada has a website about the virus that is a model of clarity and even-handedness.  Essentially its message is:  not all Canadians will contract the disease; of those who do, a relatively small number will die; but it is essential to contain the epidemic as much as possible to minimize the strain on the national health care system, hence the guidelines on social distancing. 

Rodney Howard-Browne has conducted a service in a Tampa church yesterday, with 2000 people packed inside like sardines.  Why he hasn’t been arrested is something of a mystery.  Other states have not hesitated to indict people who violated their injunctions on this matter for organizing gatherings on a much less extensive scale than this one.

In fairness the majority of the church priests and pastors are behaving more sensibly, many of them relying on virtual services rather than telling their congregations to be physically present.

Trump is showing a measure of prudence at last; instead of expecting everything to be back to normal by Easter he is extending social distance guidelines to April 30^th.  This, though slight and late and ungracious, is better than nothing.  He expects, however, everything to be normal by June.

One father has actually banned his son from entering the family home.  Against his advice the son spent the spring break in San Padre Island, a popular partying place, and sent the family photos of him sitting with friends on the porch and listening to music.  His return was somewhat less festive; his flight was repeatedly rerouted, lasting about twice as long as he had anticipated, and when he got to the house he found his car full of groceries and a note explaining that he was not welcome until the risk of contagion had passed.  He took refuge in his off-campus apartment close to his college (which has closed); but as his lease expires in June, it is uncertain where he will be able to reside afterwards. 

Sweden is adopting a more laissez-faire approach than other countries.  Restaurants remain open, public transportation is running normally, schools remain open.  It has been criticized by experts in other countries, but the government maintains that there is no need for extreme measures now.  To be sure, it is doing relatively well – 3,700 cases and 110 deaths – and the Swedes are being fairly conscientious about keeping clean.  Still, they are meeting in large groups from time to time, and it remains to be seen whether more stringent measures will be needed.  In Belarus caution has been flung to the winds; soccer games are going on as usual, and their president has urged everyone to drink vodka and take saunas to stay in good health.   The World Health Organization begs to disagree with this recommendation.

Several other entertainers have come with the virus, including Placido Domingo, one of the greatest of tenors.  He is 79, so his chances of recovery are not good.  However, age alone does not necessarily mean a fatality.  In Italy a man who was born and spent his first years during the Spanish flu epidemic has proven his mettle again by contracting the virus and recovering.  He is 101 years old.

Other than that, the news in Italy is still grim; the number of cases passed 100,000 today and the mortality rate is well over 10%.

Liberty University, in Lynchburg, VA, re-opened last week and is already paying the price for ignoring the clearest of warnings.  At least a dozen students have fallen ill with symptoms consistent with the virus and several hundred have already fled the campus while they were still able to leave.  Its president, Jerry Falwell, has suddenly changed his tune and has professed to feel anxious about the ones who still remain.  State and local officials were furious that Falwell so brazenly defied their injunctions to keep his university closed; what I don’t understand is why the parents are not resentful as well, or why they allowed their sons and daughters to return after spring break in the first place.  They must be absolute sheep!

In New York Central Park has been turned into a field hospital in order to alleviate the shortage of beds in the regular hospitals.  New York and its environs remain the greatest sufferers so far, accounting  for at least 40% of the cases and of the deaths. My aunt says that the city is almost silent and has been so for days.

Today’s statistics as of 6:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 775,306; # of deaths worldwide: 37,073; # of cases U.S.: 159,184; # of deaths U.S.: 2,945.   In China the number of cases still active continues to decline, albeit slowly.  South Korea, once one of the forerunners in the total number of cases, is now 13^th on the list, but there are still some increases. 

My April visit to the Midwest has been canceled; under the circumstances, it’s too risky.  In any case, my friends tell me that everything in Chicago is pretty much shut down, making it not very worthwhile for a casual tourist.  Besides, it appears that road trips are not feasible at this point.  Virginia, Maryland, and DC have all issued a stay-at-home order.  In the case of Virginia this order extends to June 10^th.  It is somewhat less restrictive than Maryland’s order, in that it doesn’t prohibit people from crossing state borders.

Afternoon statistics – A fool-proof method for ensuring social distancing – Restrictions in Moscow – Reductions in airline travel – Our failed judicial system – Ratings for President Trump’s briefings – Joe Diffie – Countries with low incidence of COVID-19

As of 4:00 PM the statistics are — # of cases worldwide:  710,918; # of deaths worldwide: 33,551; # of cases U.S.: 135,499; # of deaths U.S.: 2,381.   Dr. Fauci estimates that by the time the virus has run its course there will be between 1 and 2 million cases, and between 100,000 and 200,000 deaths here.  The number of active cases in China is now a little over 3200 but there have been some new cases; the virus is subsiding there, but it is premature to declare victory just yet.  In the U.S. and Europe it continues to skyrocket.  There is some slight relief in Italy; the number of deaths per day has begun to decline. 

JB, a fellow-member of Wanderbirds, has passed on an excellent tip for persuading people to maintain their distance:  use a hiking pole.  Today I was on the Bull Run/Occoquan Trail and I encountered several little groups that were sprawled out on the full width of the trail, but when I approached them I lifted my pole in a bold, swinging arc every time it left the ground and that maneuver caught their immediate attention; in most cases, they hastened to form a single file on one side of the trail.  I didn’t have say a word to persuade them. 

In Moscow no one is permitted to go outside for exercise except pet owners, and even they can go no further than 100 meters from their homes.  How on earth can they enforce anything like that!  They can’t very well have a patrol car on every street 24 hours of the day.  However, the Russians are probably more docile than we are.

TSA screenings for airplane travel are down to under 200,000 for the second day in a row; normally the count per day is between 2 and 2½  million. 

Shawn Marshall Myers, a registered sex offender, has been arrested for holding a bonfire with 60 people in attendance, in defiance of the Governor’s order against gatherings of 10 people.  All very well, but this scoundrel is not only a sex offender; he murdered a 23-year old man in 2004 during a robbery and was indicted for first-degree murder in 2011 – a delay of seven years after the event!   He made a plea bargain and received a 15-year suspended sentence – in other words, he was not penalized at all for his brutal crime.  Truly, our judicial system is broken.

Mario Rubio has slammed the media for what he calls “grotesque” coverage of the coronavirus and has accused them of displaying “glee and delight in reporting that the U. S. has more coronavirus than China.”  His reasoning – if it may be dignified by such a name – is that journalists are too trusting of China’s self-reported data.  It may be that the number of deaths in China is greater than they claim, but they have lifted the restrictions on Wuhan, the original epicenter of the virus, and they would hardly have done so without cause.  Needless to say, the journalists have reacted swiftly, hotly denying that anyone could feel “glee and delight” at the prospect of a pandemic that threatens to affect millions of people in the country.  Certainly they feel outrage towards our President in his manner of handling it – as well they might.  Today he boasted about the attention his briefings are getting.  “And wretches hang that jurymen may dine” – and similarly, patients die that Trump’s ratings can spike.

Joe Diffie, a country music star, contracted the illness a week ago on Sunday, made an announcement of his illness on Friday, and died today – sometimes the virus can do its damage with extraordinary rapidity.  He was 61, four years younger than me. John Prine, another country star, has been diagnosed with the virus; since he is over 70 and has previously had lung cancer, the prognosis is not good.  His wife Flora contracted the disease earlier and immediately put herself into self-quarantine; even so, it is possible that she passed the disease on to her husband. 

The chief factors in mortality appear to be age and underlying conditions.  While it is true that the majority of deaths occurred among seniors, about 2% of the deaths occurred among cases with no underlying ailments.  Asthma or prior bouts of pneumonia also can increase the risk.  So can smoking.

Taiwan, Vietnam, Burma, and Laos – all four much closer to the original epicenter than the U. S. or any European country – have had low incidence of the disease.  Vietnam reacted early, even to the extent of being over-cautious, but its prudence has paid off.  With a population of 96 million – far more than Italy or France or Spain – it has only 194 cases to date and no deaths.  Although Germany has a large number of cases, its mortality rate is low, probably on account of the strength of its health care system; there are 13 nurses for every 1000 people. 

Morning statistics – Exponential increases – Mexico guarding its borders – Evening statistics

As of 9:00 AM the statistics are — # of cases worldwide:  615,519; # of deaths worldwide: 28,717; # of cases U.S.: 104,860; # of deaths U.S.: 1,711.  In the course of a day and a half the number of cases and the number of deaths has gone up by a third.  In the U.S. the increase for the number of cases is over a half and the increase of deaths is nearly two-thirds.

On March 3^rd the number of cases in France was 204.  I remember that figure because that was the day that MC’s plans for travel to France were first discussed and indeed the first time I learned that the virus might prove to be a serious threat.  I looked at a website that had been set up to track the number of cases for each country.  Since France has a population of nearly 67 million, I was inclined to think lightly of the matter and to believe that the gloomy predictions of some of the experts were a bit overblown.

That was a bare 3½ weeks ago.  Since that time, the number of cases in France has increased to 33,437 and has caused nearly 2,000 deaths.  The percentage of the affected population is 0.05% — not a huge fraction at present, but certainly significant.  Even now, with the incidence spike in our country, the percentage is 0.03%.  Switzerland, of all places, has the highest incidence, standing at 0.15%.  (The mortality rate, to be sure, is significantly lower.) 

One of the many ironies that has come about as a result of the pandemic:  Mexico is now guarding its border to prevent Americans crossing over.  It has only 717 cases so far and doesn’t want to see the number increase as a result of infected persons coming in.  Warmer countries have generally been doing somewhat better than colder ones; but still, this particular instance is a bit puzzling.  Texas, whose climate is not greatly different, has more than 2000 cases and Louisiana threatens to be one of the areas of greatest risk. 

As of 9:30 PM the statistics are — # of cases worldwide:  662,073; # of deaths worldwide: 30,780; # of cases U.S.: 122,666; # of deaths U.S.: 2,147.   Very high increases – however, the number of active cases in China is 3600 and is continually decreasing, so it looks like the virus has finished raging there.  There is some leveling off in South Korea as well.  The death rates in Italy, Spain, Iran, and to a lesser extent in France are very high; over 10% in Italy.  Even in the U.K. it is over 5%.  The rate is 1.7% in the U.S. – is this because our health care is better or just that we’re in the early stages and that the number of fatalities will increase proportionately when several who still have the disease ultimately succumb?  Time will tell.

Failures in practicing social distancing – Afternoon statistics – Landon Spradlin – Hardening of attitudes among the evangelicals – Mardi Gras – The threat of Easter – Sad story of a medical care worker – Improvement in air quality – Lament for Italy

I walked today locally, doing about 20 miles in a loop.  It was a fine day and ordinarily I would have rejoiced to see so many out of doors.  I have long contended that our nation as a whole is much too sedentary in its habits.  But such activity is less enjoyable when you are forced to regard anyone in your proximity as a potential source of contagion.  And people are not practicing social distancing here, for all of the lip service that’s paid to it.  Today, for instance, I came across:

• People walking side by side as others were passing from the opposite direction, instead of going into single file
• Bikers passing pedestrians in tandem instead of one falling behind the other
• People with strollers occupying the dead center of sidewalks
• Dog owners with those ludicrous retractable leashes that are almost as bad as no leash at all, failing to reel their dog in as others approached and on occasion blocking the entire footpath

Perhaps matters are different in areas hit harder by the virus, such as New York or Washington State, but here quite a number of people do not seem to care.

At 3:00 PM the statistics are as follows:  # of cases worldwide – 585,040; # of deaths worldwide – 26,455; # of cases in U. S. – 97,028; # of deaths – 1,475.  In less than a day we’ve had an increase of 11% of cases and of 11.5% in deaths.  For the U.S., the increases are nearly 18% of cases and 25% of deaths.

Landon Spradlin, a Virginia pastor who denounced the fears over the coronavirus as “mass hysteria,” went on a missionary trip – to New Orleans, of all places, to “wash it from its sin and debauchery” – collapsed on the way back home, was taken to a hospital in North Carolina, and lived just long enough to be diagnosed with the disease, which in his case was extraordinarily virulent and claimed his life in a matter of hours.

It seems to me – though of course I may be mistaken, for this is hardly my area of expertise – but it seems to me that the evangelicals were somewhat less hostile towards science when I was growing up than they are at this stage.  Certainly they believed then, as they do now, in the literal truth of every word of the Bible, but they appeared to be more or less resigned to the fact that others might have a different opinion.  Now if they come across anything that does not fit in with their point of view, they close their eyes to it and then they close their minds.  It is a pity, for there are many likeable people in their ranks:  kindly, charitable, well-intentioned, quite ready to do one a good turn and even willing to extend their benevolence to those whose religion is not their own.  But the increasing rigidity of their theology is depriving them of the knack of living.  Under the current conditions, this blindness can be deadly.  Going to church services in closely-packed rooms and hugging one another in religious ecstasy might indeed be a demonstration of faith in ordinary times, but to do so when an infectious virus is ravaging the country is little short of madness.  The pastors, who as the leaders of their flocks ought to display at least a measure of responsibility, positively encourage them in this recklessness.  They claim that their prayers will have the power to deflect such threats from the outside.  Like Theobald Pontifex in The Way of All Flesh, they are great believers in the efficacy of prayer.  “And so am I under certain circumstances.  Tennyson has said that more things are wrought by prayer than this world dreams of, but he has wisely refrained from saying whether they are good things or bad things.  It might perhaps be as well if the world were to dream of, or even become wide awake to, some of the things that are being wrought by prayer.  But the question is avowedly difficult.”

Returning to New Orleans, it appears that the Mardi Gras celebrations, which were performed when the virus was already disseminating throughout the nation but when relatively few were aware of it, might have played a role in the current increase of cases in the city and its environs.  Of course the Mardi Gras celebrations in New Orleans are essentially a secular affair, despite their origin.  But religion has its orgies as well, and it appears that one is looming on the horizon that will aggravate the situation still further.

Easter comes on April 12^th this year.  Easter was never the most benign of holidays to begin with (the number of pogroms it has inspired is legion) but on this occasion it promises to be even deadlier to its adherents than it has been in the past to outsiders.  Will the congregants flock to services on Palm Sunday, Good Friday, Easter Sunday?  Or will they show some common sense and stay at home?  For that matter, Passover begins on April 8^th, but that is principally celebrated at family homes and the pressure to attend a seder of any kind is less intense.  Most Jewish families, I suspect, will quietly resign themselves to a ceremony held among immediate relatives only.  What will the Catholics and the Protestants do?  I agree that it is hard on them to forego a ceremony that many feel to be an important annual milestone, but at this point it simply is not a good idea to sit alongside several dozen people in a crowded room for any length of time.

A sad story:  Danielle Trezzi, a young nurse in the Lombardy region in Italy, committed suicide upon learning she tested positive for the virus.  Apparently fears of infecting others may have played a role.  I have no doubt that men and women in the health care industry must be under tremendous stress.  Need to look into ways of volunteering so as to alleviate (to some small degree) the pressure that the health care professionals in the area are undergoing.

The air is noticeably cleaner as a result of the pandemic.  Los Angeles, for instance, has not had any unhealthy levels of ozone for over a month.  The wildlife seems to be enjoying the benefits of our reduced activity as well.  Today when I was walking I heard a chorus of birdsong in every street and trail I used.

Alas, poor Italy!  More than 8% of the health care workers have the virus. Several doctors have died, including two who came out of retirement to help combat the ravages of the epidemic.  It now has the highest death count of any country.  There is a slight decrease in the incidence of new cases, so perhaps it will eventually get to the stage that China is in now – but at the moment it’s a shambles.  I shouldn’t say “at the moment” – even if the rate of new cases continues to decrease, it will take a minimum of two months before they can even begin to repair the rips and tears in their social fabric.

Morning statistics – Bright spots – More limitations on hiking – Variations in localities of grocery shopping – An attempt at using a face mask – Evening statistics

At 7:00 AM the statistics are:  # of cases worldwide – 480,446; # of deaths worldwide – 21,571; # of cases in U. S. – 69,197; # of deaths – 1,046.  In Italy the mortality rate is far higher – over 10%. And more than 0.1% of the entire population of the nation has been affected by the virus.  About a tenth of those affected have occurred amongst the medical care workers, aggravating the crisis. 

There are some bright spots.  The number of active cases in China continues to go down as more and more people are recovering there.  In South Korea, similarly, the incidence of the virus seems to be stabilizing.  It is expanding in both Africa and South America, but more slowly than in the Northern Hemisphere, perhaps on account of the higher temperatures at this time of year. At this point the U.S. and Europe appear to be the main concentration of contagion.

Some modifications to the hikes with the Vigorous Hikers group:  no carpooling (that was in force already), no hikes that involve shuttles, no newcomers (in order to keep the head count low), no hikes in especially popular areas such as Old Rag or Whiteoak Canyon, everyone keeps their distance from one another at breaks and at lunch stops. 

Also, park service personnel have asked hikers to adhere to the less strenuous or at any rate the less risky hikes.  This is not a good time to be injured while hiking on the trails.  Our medical services are over-burdened as it is.

When I went shopping today I reflected that I’m really very well-off in comparison with many others – certainly many others of my age.  I went on foot to the Oriental supermarket, which is more than two miles away, picked up what I needed, and walked back.  To begin with, many of my contemporaries seem to have difficulty walking more than a mile on end.  Long life to the hiking clubs I’ve joined and to the Wanderbirds in particular for encouraging me in the habit of staying active and not allowing adverse weather conditions to discourage me from venturing out of doors!  Then, too, there are so many other stores to choose from:  a Safeway, a Walmart, an Aldi, a Shopper’s Food Warehouse – all of them at a shorter distance from my house.  I went to H-Mart because even when the supplies of the other stores continue to run low, it seems to have varieties of fresh produce in bewildering profusion – a profusion that’s bewildering to me, at any rate.  How is it that they haven’t run short?  There are a few items in short supply, of course – fewer varieties of fish than usual, and some types of cleaners are unobtainable; but on the whole, I’ve not had to cope with food shortages. I’m sure that other areas are less fortunate.

I tried using a bandana in lieu of a face mask on this walk.  The experiment could not be called successful; when I placed it over my nose I could not breathe easily and when it covers the mouth only it provides little protection.  It does work better within buildings, when I’m not moving quickly, so perhaps I should use it there. 

At 6:00 PM the statistics are as follows:  # of cases worldwide – 526,044; # of deaths worldwide – 23,709; # of cases in U. S. – 82,404; # of deaths – 1,178.  In less than a day we’ve had an increase of 19% of cases and of 12.5% in deaths.  For a long time China held the position of first place with regard to the number of cases, but we have managed to snatch those undesirable laurels from it. 

Morning statistics – Stimulus package – My aunt in Manhattan – Airline travel – The beauties of spring – National park closures — The Passion Play of Oberammergau – A family loss – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 435,006; # of deaths worldwide: 19,625; # of cases U.S.: 55,225; # of deaths U.S.: 802.  In China the number of cases still active is actually declining; it is well under 5,000 now.  Italy continues to be hard-hit.  It has had 6,280 deaths, more than twice the number of those who have succumbed in China.  In Spain as well, the number of deaths is on a par with that of China, even though the number of cases is far less (47,610 as opposed to 81,661).  Several of the cases in Spain have affected health-care workers.  An ice rink in Madrid is being used as a morgue to alleviate pressure on hospitals and funeral homes.  Germany is doing relatively well.  Even though it has 34,009 cases, the death toll is only 172 – a mortality rate of about 0.5%, well below those of other countries. 

A stimulus package deal has been reached by the White House and the Senate; people whose gross income is under $75000 will receive $1200.  Now it will have to pass Congress, and it is not clear how long that will take.  A few members have the virus already and more than 30 others have self-quarantined. 

People who have visited New York are advised to self-quarantine for at least 14 days.  New York City has had nearly 200 deaths.  My Aunt Barbara, who lives in Manhattan, assures me that she remains well; she is just a few months short of 90 and thus is at high risk, but she remains in reasonably good spirits.

Airline travel, naturally enough, has reduced significantly; on Monday TSA screened 331,431 people as opposed to 2,434,370 people on the same day last year.  Indeed, travel on the ground is much easier due to the reduction in traffic, both by foot and on car.  I have driven on the Beltway during rush hour without encountering traffic jams and without any need to use the toll lanes, and I can cross streets without fear of getting run over by anyone making a right turn on red who fails to check for pedestrians in his path. 

The early spring season continues to be lovely.  Flowers are in bloom everywhere, some of them nearly two or three weeks earlier than usual.  The leaves are starting to come out and the tendrils of the willows in particular are fresh and newly-green as they trail the ground.

Yellowstone, Grand Teton, and the Great Smokies have closed their gates.  It’s impossible to blame the park services; at this point, one is more likely to encounter a crowd at any national park than in downtown.  The resources for daily exercise are dwindling.  I thought of taking a route today that is 20-odd miles, but the weather is cool and wet, so it probably isn’t a good idea to be out under such conditions for such a long time.

The Passion Play of Oberammergau has been postponed from 2020 to 2022.  It should perhaps be explained that the Passion Play is performed once every ten years to celebrate the passion of Christ, or the short, final period of the life of Jesus from his visit to Jerusalem to the crucifixion. It was composed in 1634 and is the earliest continual survivor of early Christian drama in the vernacular.  It is performed over a period of seven or eight hours, beginning at about 2:30 PM and ending at 10:00 PM, with a three-hour interval for supper.  Visitors from all over Europe flock for this important occasion. The theatre in which it is performed seats about 4700 and it is always sold out.   More than 2000 citizens from the village participate in the performance, and it naturally is a great boon for tourism and the economy in Bavaria and in Germany generally; in fact, when questions of budget come up in the region, one common saying is that “the Passion Play will pay for it.”  The event is rounded off by an elegant and agreeable general massacre of every Jew down to last man, woman, and child residing in the state.

No, on second thought I made that last part up.  But it didn’t require any great stretch of the imagination to do so.  It takes the Germans, and the Bavarians in particular, to treat this vile anti-Semitic screed with the utmost reverence and elevate it to the level of high art.  For nearly four centuries it has been imbuing the fine notion that venomous hatred is a religious duty and that the best way to put the doctrines of Christ into practice is to enter the service of Ba’al, the Carthaginian god whose rituals included feeding victims of human sacrifice to the fire.  How could they fail to erect the death camps of Treblinka and Sobibor!

I have just heard news of the first casualty to affect me on a personal level:  TW, husband of my mother’s cousin NW, died on the 23^rd.  I was not even aware that he had contracted the disease.  He was just short of 73 years old.  Technically, he succumbed to a heart attack; but he had been afflicted by the virus to the extent of having to be put on a ventilator for several days, and eventually his heart was not able to withstand the strain.  I do not know whether his death is listed as one of those claimed by the virus or whether the death is registered as a heart attack, with no mention of the virus.

Statistics as of 5:30 PM — # of cases worldwide:  460,250; # of deaths worldwide: 20,857; # of cases U.S.: 62,873; # of deaths U.S.: 894.

The work ethic of Dan Patrick – Contrast between his attitude and that of Agatha Christie – Dr. Fauci’s dilemma – A cure for malaria fails when applied to COVID-19 – North Korea – China – Appalachian Trail Conservancy – Evening statistics – An afflicted friend

Some curious headlines in the news today:

Dan Patrick, the Lieutenant Governor of Texas, issued a statement urging Americans to “get back to work” – working by means of tele-commuting doesn’t count, apparently – and that people over 70, the ones at the greatest risk from the ravages of the virus, will “take care of themselves.”  Patrick is 69. 

I wish Patrick could have accompanied me during my visit to the assisted living facility yesterday to get some first-hand knowledge of the ability of his elders to look after themselves unassisted.  Most of the residents are bent in figure, halting in movement, and slow in comprehension.  Hardly one in ten can get about without the aid of a cane, a walker, or a wheelchair.  Visiting that place always depresses me.  It is, as I believe, not a good idea to isolate oneself from the presence of younger generations, and I have stubbornly resisted all persuasions to live in an “age-restricted” community.  To move into one of these is an admission that one has been exhausted by life.

It’s easy to make fun of such people or to dismiss them as of no account or even superfluous.  But . . . “people like living, don’t they? . . . Even if you’re old and in pain and you can just crawl out in the sun. . . . those people like living even more than young strong people do. It’s harder for them to die, the struggle’s greater.” 

The author is Agatha Christie, writer of murder mysteries.  The above quotation illustrates what might be the main reason that people continue to read her books while those of other mystery writers, often much more graceful in style and less reductive in characterization, fade into obscurity; she feels very strongly that to deprive anyone of his or her allotted lifespan is a crime and deserves to be punished, whereas her rivals give the impression that they don’t care, at least not to the same degree.  I wish an attitude such as Christie’s could be communicated to some of our national leaders.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told reporters that he can’t very well jump in front of the microphone during Trump’s daily briefings to prevent him from making misstatements about the virus.  I actually feel sorry for the man, but I could have told him in advance that it is simply a lost cause trying to get Trump to shut up.

Among his (numerous) other blunders, Trump has said repeatedly that chloroquine, an anti-malarial drug, is an effective prophylaxis against the virus.  It is nothing of the kind, and can actually be toxic if taken in the wrong dosage.  An Arizona couple took a form of it that is used to clean fish tanks, resulting in both of them getting violently ill, and fatally so in the man’s case.  The woman, who survived, has at any rate reached the appropriate conclusion to be drawn from this experience; in her own words, “Don’t believe anything that the President says.” 

North Korea is dealing with the issue in its own distinctive fashion.  The first case of the virus in the country was diagnosed yesterday.  The police, following the orders of Kim Jong-un, took him out and shot him.  Buried him too, let us hope, although most of the North Koreans have been very hungry lately.

China is lifting the lockdown on Wuhan, where the virus emerged.  The number of new cases in the country has slowed down to a trickle and the Chinese are now, ironically enough, devoting their attention to the prevention of new cases being brought in by visitors from the outside.

The Appalachian Trail Conservancy has requested people to avoid using the trail because it is so heavily traveled and in particular to avoid using the privies available at various shelters.  It seems like overkill; but less than a week ago I was hiking in the area close to Duncannon, PA – not the most frequented portion of the trail – and I encountered about two dozen hikers in all, most of them in a stretch between Rte. 850 and the view past Darlington Shelter (about a three-mile segment).  This is the time of the year that most of the through-hikers are in the first stages of their journeys, and frankly I doubt whether such a request from the ATC will have much effect.

Statistics as of 8:45 AM — # of cases worldwide: 392,331; # of deaths worldwide: 17,156; # of cases in U. S.:  46,450; # of deaths in U. S.: 593. 

Poor RK has come up with a bad case of sciatica, severe enough to confine her to her bed most of the time.  I have had it myself, but in a much milder form; it lasted a couple of days and then faded.  I had it when I was in my early 40s; it recurred twice, but in each case lasting only a day or so, and then I have never had a bout of it since.  Possibly the amount of hiking I’ve been doing in later years has staved it away.  She has promised to let me know if she needs me to run errands for her.

Difficulties in obtaining professional assistance aggravated by lockdown restrictions – Morning statistics – Experts’ regrets about the introduction of agriculture – Spring break – College life among the Baby Boomers – Singular attitudes towards younger generations from a senior citizen – My mother at the assisted living facility – Evening statistics

The connection has been fixed.

Contacting Verizon was very troublesome.  I kept getting directed to a text messaging conversation with a “Tech Coach”, and whenever I tried to respond to his texts I kept getting “Message not delivered” prompts from my cell phone.  I know that the hours of live operators have been cut on account of the virus and I was prepared for a long waiting time – with that one would not quarrel.  But this method of putting customers through a veritable maze of call options and leading to false assurances that you are will be in contact with someone, and then getting transferred to an automated message system, is unconscionable.  The service I received when I actually spoke with a living person was quite good, but it took multiple calls made over the course of an hour to reach him.

This morning’s statistics are:  # of cases worldwide – 350,536; # of deaths worldwide – 15,328; # of cases in U. S. 35,241; # of deaths in U. S. – 473.  This is an increase of over 30% incidence of cases worldwide and more than 100% in the U. S. over a period of three days.  It is possible that the increase in U. S. cases is in part due to more rigorous testing and that we are now less under-reported than we had been previously.  The U. S. is now in third place, behind China and Italy – not that this is a contest we’re particularly desirous of winning.  In China the virus seems to have stabilized (several provinces now no longer have active cases), although it is premature to declare victory there; there are still over 5,000 cases still active (i.e., neither dead nor recovered).  The mortality rate there to date is about 4%. 

There are a number of experts who have explained that the virus is linked to our domestication of animals as we made the transition from nomadic life to agriculture and who have deplored such innovations.  I think of myself as being fairly conservative in my outlook, but harkening to a past so remote seems to me too much of a good thing.  Of course, the methods in which they disseminate these pronouncements depend on certain implements that require a stable habitation on the part of the inventors – such as, for instance, a system of writing, the methodologies for creating paper and ink and writing tools (and in later centuries, electronics as well), an economic system for ensuring general access of such materials, an education system that promotes literacy, and so on.  How these pundits expect our species to have developed these while still remaining in the hunter/gatherer stage, goodness only knows; and I must confess that the author of these lines was not sufficiently interested to find out.

This is the time for spring break, and many students flocked to Fort Lauderdale, despite the warnings for them to stay away.  As one of them stated outright, nothing was going to interfere with their plans to party.  There were several comments in Facebook along the lines of “What a selfish generation!”  But I remember my college days very well, and I can assert with some confidence that the Baby Boomers at that age would have done precisely the same thing.  I realize that as a senior citizen it is my sworn and solemn duty to disparage everyone younger than myself, but I find it difficult to believe that the Millennials or Generation X were as coddled, pampered, and indulged as my own generation.  What miserable days I spent in the University of Maryland dormitory, unwilling witness to a continual parade of behavior at once petty and wild, unbridled yet mean-minded!  I remember in particular the shameless way in which my fellow-students lavished praise and adulation on some of the worst tyrants imaginable, and on Mao Zedong in particular – and it was a completely disinterested servility, for they had nothing to gain by flattering these dictators and already possessed all the benefits that prosperity, security, and health could bestow.  They were dirty as well.  Our residence hall was routinely trashed on almost a daily basis, leaving the mess for hired janitors to clean up.  They would do this even on days when they marched in protest against the destruction of the environment.  This was not hypocrisy in the ordinary sense of the word; they honestly were unable to see the slightest connection between the two activities.  We senior citizens are most emphatically not in a position to criticize later generations for being self-centered.

How much harder things are for younger people than they were for me!  I did not have an easy time of it by any means, but I was eventually able to secure a job that paid well and offered a measure of security, and my experience was not unique.  When I bought my house, the rule of thumb given was that the house price should be between three and four times one’s annual income.  That certainly would not hold good today.  People just starting life are saddled with more debt for their education and more expensive prices for shelter (either by rent or mortgage) than I ever had to contend with.  And the situation will worsen.  Both Democrats and Republicans have jettisoned all sense of fiscal responsibility; they squander money from the national treasury with a fine, bold abandon and would blush at the idea of paying their debts.  Now that a real emergency has come to our nation, people are beginning to realize – very dimly — that an empty treasury during a time of crisis is not what might be called an asset.  Trump continues to print more money to provide what he describes as a “stimulus” and in this way buys the present at the expense of the future.

I visited my mother today in the assisted living facility.  To enter I took a temperature scan to ensure that I did not have a fever – a sensible precaution, for if the virus affected anyone within this building filled with elderly and infirm seniors it would be deadly.  I’m a bit surprised that no assisted living residences have been affected yet – perhaps they have, and the fact just hasn’t made the headlines.  The scan said that my temperature was 97.4⁰; I always was a bit cold-blooded. 

My mother has been afflicted with dementia and aphasia (speechlessness) for years and now lives in a dim, twilight world, with only occasional flickers of recognition of familiar faces, such as those of my brother and myself.  Perhaps it is for the best that she is not cognizant of what is going on.  I do not know even if she is aware that she recently became a widow.  She continues to be in reasonable health, despite a complete lack of activity; she has no heart or lung issues. 

At 8:00 PM the statistics are:  # of cases worldwide – 378,287; # of deaths worldwide – 16,497; # of cases in U. S. – 43,667; # of deaths – 552.  Our mortality rate at this stage is well below the world average, but on the other hand no one in our country has fully recovered.  Italy continues to be hard-hit; over 60,000 cases, with a mortality rate of nearly 10%.  The number of deaths does appear to be slowing down, but while that is somewhat encouraging news it has to be weighed against the growth of the number of cases in general:  42% in less than half a week. Many states have “stay-at-home” orders now, but in practice this means to avoid going to restaurants, bars, entertainment venues, and other places where people ordinarily gather in large groups.  It does not apply, as yet, to going outside for exercise, as long as people keep six feet from each other.  Will it come to the point when such stay-at-home mandates will become more restrictive and prevent us from leaving our homes except for purposes such as grocery shopping or medical appointments?  One other exception: people can go to restaurants for takeout or ordering food delivery.  That too may change; and in any case fewer and fewer restaurants are offering these options, preferring to close altogether.  I’m thankful that I taught myself how to cook!

The delights of meandering – Statistics – Issues with Internet

I went with RS to explore various options for extending the route of the Potomac Heritage Trail and other loops in the Loudoun County area.

Hiking with RS, inevitably, means going on long excursions with a route that is not necessarily filled in with all of the details and that may involve several digressions before arriving at the designated end point.  If your goal is to make a straightforward path to your final destination, you might find such an attitude frustrating; if you accept the fact that the search can often be as rewarding as its resolution, such hikes can be a delightful experience.  We investigated a certain option that ended up taking us several miles out of our way and that resulted in a hike of 28 miles and 2000 feet elevation gain, but we traversed several interesting routes, some of which may form the basis for future paths and/or extensions of the Potomac Heritage Trail.  It was a beautiful day, with pear and cherry trees in full flower and many lovely vistas, some of them reminiscent of the Coast-to-Coast hike I took about 1½ years ago.

U S. # of cases today:  33,276.

And, of course, the other causes of death have not taken a holiday.  This evening I heard on the news that a young woman in Southeast Washington DC has been murdered.

I found my Internet not to be working on my PC today; have to contact Verizon in the morning – because of restricted hours due to the precautions against the virus, no direct service during weekends.

Daily statistics – New policies of the Vigorous Hikers – Hiking on the Appalachian Trail – Travel plans become increasingly tentative – New cases arising within a short time

As of 4:30 PM today the figures are – # of cases worldwide:  299,125; # of deaths worldwide:  12,762; # of cases in U.S.: 24,148; # of deaths U.S.: 285.  The virus appears to be exploding in Italy, which is rapidly approaching the number of cases in China, with a much smaller population.

The Vigorous Hikers group has abandoned its carpooling; we will still have hikes, but we will meet at the trailhead.  We figure that since we’re a relatively small group and since we hike at different paces, our activity should be reasonably safe – safer, perhaps, than walking along the streets, which at this point have a much greater concentration of pedestrians

“Stay home!  Practice social distancing!”  I see that everywhere when I drive on the freeways on the signs normally used for estimating times to various destinations.  Well, I haven’t been staying home much (is staying in one place and never venturing out really such a good idea?) but I certainly have been practicing social distancing; the trails I hike for the most part are miles away from human habitations.  Several others seem to agree.  Today I went on the AT from the Rte. 850 parking area, first doing a there-and-back to Darlington Shelter (or actually to the junction with the Tuscarora Trail – it seemed pointless not to complete the entire ascent) and then a there-and-back to the view at the pipeline:  9 ½ miles in all, with about 1500 feet of elevation gain.  I encountered about two dozen other hikers in various groups – from a safe distance, of course.

This now completes the segment of Pennsylvania for me from Pen Mar to the Clarks Ferry bridge of the Susquehanna River.  Imagine – I have only 144.6 miles to go for completing the state!  However, it’s unlikely I can do so under the current conditions.  Eventually I will reach a point where it will take me more than 3 hours of driving to reach a trailhead unless I stay at a hotel; and at this point hotel bookings are extremely precarious.

The following are the trips or excursions scheduled for the year:

• April 7-10, visit to the Midwest to look up various friends
• May 6-7, visit to JF in Ocean City, NJ
• June 6-14, hiking trip to Kings Canyon and Sequoia, and staying in Napa a couple of days afterwards
• July (date not set), segment hiking of the AT somewhere in Vermont
• September 5-12, hiking trip to Rocky Mtn. National Park

We shall see how many of these (if any) actually come to fruition.  Some of us were planning to segment-hike the AT together in central Virginia at the end of May, but that idea has now been abandoned.

In the time it’s taken to write today’s entry, the # of cases has shot up to 303,001 and the # of deaths to 12,950.

Indeterminate symptoms – Driving through rush hour – Daily statistics – Retrospective –Concerns of daily life during a crisis – Travel plans become tentative – An attempt to write about President Trump with judicious impartiality – The attempt abandoned after two paragraphs – A side glance at the evangelicals

I woke up this morning with a bit of a dry throat that necessitated a few coughs to clear it and also with a slight feeling of fatigue.  And yet I was not alarmed, and I did not rush out immediately for testing.

I sleep with a nightguard, so I generally have to clear my throat every morning after awakening, and sometimes this involves coughing.  And since I hiked 18 miles on a particularly rocky segment of the Appalachian Trail the preceding day, a faint sense of fatigue the morning after is not particularly surprising.

But that is part of the problem.  How does one determine whether various symptoms are innocuous or not?  Coronavirus symptoms are not very distinctive:  dry cough, fatigue, fever, shortness of breath – these can be symptoms of the virus or of influenza or even of the common cold (of which there are many different varieties). 

For the hike yesterday, I began at the trailhead in Duncannon, PA, and the drive there was illuminating.  I went via the Beltway to I-270 and thence to Rte. 15 North.  I started later than I had hoped to do and was on the Beltway during morning rush hour, yet the traffic was light enough to enable me to use cruise control for most of the way.  Going back, similarly, presented no difficulties.  Almost everyone is working from home now.

The total number of cases as of this writing (about 4:00 PM EST, 3/20/20) is 266,115.  Of these, 87,363 have recovered and 11,153 have died, which means that nearly 168,000 cases are still active.  For the U.S, there are 16,638 cases, of which 216 have died and 121 have recovered, with 16301 cases still active.  I will try to track the rate of increase during the oncoming days.  I regret that I did not do so earlier, but I seriously under-estimated how quickly the virus would spread.

I first was aware of the issue about 2 ½ weeks ago – on March 3^rd, to be precise.  I had known about it earlier, of course, because of the news that was emerging from Wuhan, but I was not anticipating a particularly large impact here.  We had had earlier alarms about the Ebola virus (2014) and SARS (2003), and these were a nine-days wonder for the most part, having little long-term effects on our medical care system.

However, during a hike with the Vigorous Hikers group one member (MC) mentioned that he was planning to travel to France.  Some of the other members said that he would have to quarantine himself for two weeks after his return before he could be allowed to hike with us again.  He (and I) thought that this was being overly cautious.  At that point France had only 204 cases in all, out of a population of nearly 67 million.  In the space of 17 days that number has increased to 1479 – more than a seven-fold increase.  Now, of course, international travel has been canceled altogether, so poor MC’s trip has fallen by the wayside. 

On March 14^th, the Capital Hiking Club held a tele-conference to determine whether hikes should be converted to carpool hikes rather than using the bus, in which I, as a board member, participated.  LE, another board member and an epidemiologist, strenuously argued for canceling them altogether, and in the end she prevailed.  Even at that point I was not convinced – I thought carpool hikes were feasible – but I went along with the majority.

At the same time, the Wanderbirds club decided to change the next several hikes to carpool hikes.  Since I was to lead a hike on March 29^th, my co-leader and I worked out a substitute hike suited for carpools and scouted it out on March 15^th.  Then, on March 17^th, the hikes for this club were canceled as well.

In accounts about epidemics, details such as how to acquire the necessities of life are barely mentioned.  Grocery shopping has become – interesting, for want of a better word.  One Facebook member who works in a grocery has admonished people not to get only a few items at a time but to make a shopping list and buy for several days in advance in order to minimize visits to the stores.  And I would gladly follow this advice, but for one problem – when I make out such a list and then go to a store, several items on the list are missing.  Getting fruits and vegetables, in particular, can be very troublesome.  There were very few available at the Safeway within walking distance of my house.  As for meat, the only things available appeared to be pork chops and sausage.  I therefore drove to the H-Mart (the Korean supermarket), where to my surprise there was plenty of fresh produce. 

I have not been hoarding, although in one case I have had a piece of luck.  There has been a rush on toilet paper, a source of numerous jokes on our social media; and I happened to purchase a package of 24 rolls just a couple of days before the panic started.  It was sheer accident; I was down to the last couple of rolls at the time I made the purchase.  Now people seem to have acquired what they need and toilet paper is appearing on the shelves again, so I don’t anticipate any problems on that particular issue.  I still have been unsuccessful in finding a store that has housewipes, but that is a luxury item when all is said and done.  So we are not too badly off in my area, which possesses numerous food stores within a 2-mile radius.  But how do communities with only one or two stores fare?  Not very well, is my guess.

I have a visit planned to the Midwest in the second week of April to connect with various acquaintances there.  So far I have not canceled it, but we will see how matters stand as time progresses.

During this crisis one’s attention naturally focuses on our leaders.  Here I run into a difficulty.  I intensely dislike President Trump.  I was appalled on the day that he secured the nomination of the Republican Party in 2016.  I thought then (and still do) that he was thoroughly unqualified for the job and morally bankrupt in the bargain:  a man who used women shamelessly, with numerous trivial affairs that were sensual without being passionate, who caused several people to lose their fortunes by incurring debts with them that he refused to pay, who went bankrupt on several occasions and never once owned a corporation that was financially solvent, who showed thorough ignorance of governmental matters, military matters, diplomatic matters, and even matters of commerce, and who was proud of his ignorance in addition.   And his conduct during his term of office has proven to be even worse than my expectations.  Personnel from the Department of State, the EPA, and even the military have fled Government employment en masse, unable to put up with his whims; scarcely a month has gone by without some scandal or other besetting one or more of the members of his administration; and in open defiance of the law he conducts business transactions while holding high office and has given his son, his daughter, and his son-in-law political appointments, despite their glaring lack of talent. 

It is therefore difficult for me, as the above synopsis probably shows, to write about him dispassionately.  I honestly cannot fault him for initially under-estimating the scope of the virus, when I had done the same thing myself.  It was only a few years ago that we underwent the Ebola virus scare, which, though not trivial, proved to be nothing like the pandemic that some of the experts predicted.  The difference, of course, is that the coronavirus is highly contagious, whereas Ebola was not.  The fact remains, however, that many people in the early stages, including some medical experts, had not expected the virus to erupt on so large a scale.  So on that account alone I would not be as severe on Trump as some of the other commentators now are.

Still, it seems evident that the President has denuded the CDC of its ability to forestall such matters and that he resolutely ignored warnings until the number of cases was too great for the matter to be swept under the carpet.  At this point he has instituted certain measures that seem to me prudent (such as banning international travel) and others that look like panicking (some of the so-called stimulus measures come under this category).  The number of cases is still relatively small, and yet already our hospitals are showing signs of strain.  This virus is something of a test of the strength of our health system, and our health system appears to be on the verge of flunking, largely on account of the resources that he has stolen from it.  So it appears that I can loathe Donald Trump with a clear conscience.

Incidentally, the adulterous nature of these above-mentioned affairs of his does not appear to trouble his Evangelical Christian supporters in the least.  It seems that the seventh Commandment is not a matter of much consequence for them.  I wonder what their attitude is towards the other nine?

I started keeping a journal on March 20th, 2020, when it became clear to me that the COVID-19 virus had become a pandemic. It does not pretend to be a scientific account of the virus and its ramifications. Historical accounts of plagues necessarily focus on generalities, and it is not always easy to infer the details of daily life during such times — what it was like, for example, to shop for food on a periodic basis, or how ordinary social activities were impacted. So this journal combines both personal details and news from the nation at large and from other nations as well.

I use the full names of public figures, but for personal friends and acquaintances I have used initials only in order to protect their privacy.

When the virus has completed its course, many conditions will change. For the most part social arrangements will revert to the way they were before; in some matters the effects of the virus may impact how matters are arranged now, or at least how they were arranged before the virus made its presence. In any case, the peculiar mood of this time will fade and eventually become a distant memory. It is possible, therefore, that journals such as this one kept during the days of the pandemic will eventually have a historical interest.