Afternoon statistics – A fool-proof method for ensuring social distancing – Restrictions in Moscow – Reductions in airline travel – Our failed judicial system – Ratings for President Trump’s briefings – Joe Diffie – Countries with low incidence of COVID-19
As of 4:00 PM the statistics are — # of cases worldwide: 710,918; # of deaths worldwide: 33,551; # of cases U.S.: 135,499; # of deaths U.S.: 2,381. Dr. Fauci estimates that by the time the virus has run its course there will be between 1 and 2 million cases, and between 100,000 and 200,000 deaths here. The number of active cases in China is now a little over 3200 but there have been some new cases; the virus is subsiding there, but it is premature to declare victory just yet. In the U.S. and Europe it continues to skyrocket. There is some slight relief in Italy; the number of deaths per day has begun to decline.
JB, a fellow-member of Wanderbirds, has passed on an excellent tip for persuading people to maintain their distance: use a hiking pole. Today I was on the Bull Run/Occoquan Trail and I encountered several little groups that were sprawled out on the full width of the trail, but when I approached them I lifted my pole in a bold, swinging arc every time it left the ground and that maneuver caught their immediate attention; in most cases, they hastened to form a single file on one side of the trail. I didn’t have say a word to persuade them.
In Moscow no one is permitted to go outside for exercise except pet owners, and even they can go no further than 100 meters from their homes. How on earth can they enforce anything like that! They can’t very well have a patrol car on every street 24 hours of the day. However, the Russians are probably more docile than we are.
TSA screenings for airplane travel are down to under 200,000 for the second day in a row; normally the count per day is between 2 and 2½ million.
Shawn Marshall Myers, a registered sex offender, has been arrested for holding a bonfire with 60 people in attendance, in defiance of the Governor’s order against gatherings of 10 people. All very well, but this scoundrel is not only a sex offender; he murdered a 23-year old man in 2004 during a robbery and was indicted for first-degree murder in 2011 – a delay of seven years after the event! He made a plea bargain and received a 15-year suspended sentence – in other words, he was not penalized at all for his brutal crime. Truly, our judicial system is broken.
Mario Rubio has slammed the media for what he calls “grotesque” coverage of the coronavirus and has accused them of displaying “glee and delight in reporting that the U. S. has more coronavirus than China.” His reasoning – if it may be dignified by such a name – is that journalists are too trusting of China’s self-reported data. It may be that the number of deaths in China is greater than they claim, but they have lifted the restrictions on Wuhan, the original epicenter of the virus, and they would hardly have done so without cause. Needless to say, the journalists have reacted swiftly, hotly denying that anyone could feel “glee and delight” at the prospect of a pandemic that threatens to affect millions of people in the country. Certainly they feel outrage towards our President in his manner of handling it – as well they might. Today he boasted about the attention his briefings are getting. “And wretches hang that jurymen may dine” – and similarly, patients die that Trump’s ratings can spike.
Joe Diffie, a country music star, contracted the illness a week ago on Sunday, made an announcement of his illness on Friday, and died today – sometimes the virus can do its damage with extraordinary rapidity. He was 61, four years younger than me. John Prine, another country star, has been diagnosed with the virus; since he is over 70 and has previously had lung cancer, the prognosis is not good. His wife Flora contracted the disease earlier and immediately put herself into self-quarantine; even so, it is possible that she passed the disease on to her husband.
The chief factors in mortality appear to be age and underlying conditions. While it is true that the majority of deaths occurred among seniors, about 2% of the deaths occurred among cases with no underlying ailments. Asthma or prior bouts of pneumonia also can increase the risk. So can smoking.
Taiwan, Vietnam, Burma, and Laos – all four much closer to the original epicenter than the U. S. or any European country – have had low incidence of the disease. Vietnam reacted early, even to the extent of being over-cautious, but its prudence has paid off. With a population of 96 million – far more than Italy or France or Spain – it has only 194 cases to date and no deaths. Although Germany has a large number of cases, its mortality rate is low, probably on account of the strength of its health care system; there are 13 nurses for every 1000 people.