Month: April 2020

Morning statistics – More traffic on roads than earlier – Variety of houses in Fairfax – Stimulus checks – The upcoming election – Possible setback to Biden’s chances – Larry Hogan outwits Trump – The U.S. as an object of pity – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 9:30 AM — # of cases worldwide: 3,244,586; # of deaths worldwide: 229,182; # of cases U.S.: 1,064,836; # of deaths U.S.: 61,680.  The incidence rate in Russia is accelerating.  In absolute terms it ranks eighth in the number of cases nation-wide.  Proportionately it still has considerably less than the Western European countries and the U.S., but it is rapidly closing the gap.  The mortality rate is about 1%, but this will probably change as the cases that are currently active come to a resolution. 

I visited my mother again today.  She is too sunk in her dementia to recognize me, but her physical health is well enough.  Traffic along the Beltway was more crowded than before.  Part of the reason was that it was raining heavily, but there are definitely more cars on the road than there were earlier this month.  People are beginning to chafe against the lockdown restrictions and are going out more than they have been doing in the past several weeks.  At no point did I feel justified in using cruise control.  During my return drive to Virginia I saw a traffic tie-up on the Inner Loop caused by an accident.  In short, things are getting back to normal.

The rain came down in torrents today but it cleared up in the evening.  I went out briefly when it was still daylight, savoring the freshness of the air (it has such a clean scent after the end of a rainfall) and the chorus of birds in song.  I am fortunate in the neighborhood in which I have chosen to live.  It is older than many of the other neighborhoods in Northern Virginia, and as a result people have had a greater amount of time to alter their houses with additional verandas, patios, sunrooms, even an additional floor in some cases.  Some of these alterations may not be beautiful individually, but the net effect has been to overcome the amount of uniformity among the houses.  Some months ago I visited a neighborhood in Ashburn to meet with a friend; it consisted of townhouses and their interiors were comfortably laid out, but the identical exteriors of every single one of them on block after block had a depressing effect on me.  It was rather like seeing a giant beehive.  Here hardly any two houses look alike.  Individuality extends to the gardens as well.  In some cases people have elected not to have grass lawns at all, but to devote every square inch of their yards to flowers, shrubs, vegetables, and fruit trees.  Luckily we have no homeowner’s association to interfere with such projects.

My stimulus check came through today.  Checks sent through the mail have Donald Trump’s signature on them rather than that of the head of the Treasury Department; but since I elected to have the check sent via direct deposit, I will have to forego the contemplation of that most precious of autographs.  It’s a bit of a blow, admittedly, but I think I’ll be able to weather it.

Speaking of Trump – I wish I didn’t have to so often but the subject is unavoidable – various polls have indicated that Biden is leading him by a large margin in the coming election.  Trump has reacted in the way one might expect; he assailed his opponent with random abuse and concluded by saying “I don’t believe in polls.”  

Sadly, there is one circumstance that may justify Trump’s confidence.  Biden has been accused of sexual assault by Tara Reade, a former staff assistant in Biden’s Senate office.  The incident is alleged to have occurred in 1993, so it is very unlikely that any corroborating evidence will emerge at this point.  But it is the sort of story that could dog Biden during the election.  It doesn’t help matters that the same people in the Democratic party who were the loudest in condemning Brett Kavanaugh on similar evidence when he was nominated for Supreme Court justice in 2018 are the most prominent of Biden’s defenders.  Their public support of him may actually impede Biden’s campaign.

In all candor I admit that I would vote for Biden even if he is discovered to have assembled an entire harem devoted to his private use, so desirous am I of getting rid of Trump.  My attitude is that of Macduff when he importunes Malcolm to rule Scotland in Macbeth’s stead, even when Malcolm tests him out by claiming to be worse:

 . . . Not in the legions
Of horrid hell can come a devil more damned
In evils to top . . .

. . . Trump.

The governor of Maryland appears to agree with me.  Larry Hogan has obtained, after a laborious 22-day period of negotiations and through the use of his wife’s connections with her native land, thousands of testkits from South Korea.  He ensured that the flight delivering them landed at the Baltimore/Washington airport – the first time that a Korean Air passenger plane has landed there – instead of Dulles, which is more distant from the state capital of Annapolis.  When they were unloaded he promptly spirited them away to an undisclosed location protected by the Maryland National Guard.  He has frankly declared that they are being protected against seizure.  He has ample reason to fear interference from agencies acting under Trump’s orders; Governor Charlie Baker of Massachusetts previously ordered 3 million N95 masks for medical care workers in the state, only to see them confiscated by Trump’s thugs (respectfully denominated as “federal officials”) when the masks arrived at the port of New York.  In effect, Governor Hogan has been conducting a clandestine operation to avert the theft of supplies that cost so much effort to acquire – theft not by a terrorist group but by our own president.  This is a scenario that hitherto was more typical of government in Tsarist Russia than of our country.  In fact, it sounds like the plot of a story by Gogol.

From Fintan O’Toole, columnist for the Irish Times:  “The world has loved, hated and envied the U.S. Now, for the first time, we pity it.”  Indeed, our unfortunate country is greatly to be pitied at this point.  It is in the hands of a very bad steward.

Today’s statistics as of 8:30 PM — # of cases worldwide: 3,307,691; # of deaths worldwide: 234,075; # of cases U.S.: 1,095,023; # of deaths U.S.: 63,856.  There does appear to be a slowdown in the progress of the virus.  The amount of new deaths is relatively small; most of these are in Mexico and Brazil.  The case incidence rate is quite high in Ireland, trailing that of Spain and Belgium, although its mortality rate is relatively low (just under 6%). 

Morning statistics – Unseasonable weather – The Eden Center – Consultation with an electrician – The webinar – Visit with friends – Possibility of re-instatement of Brett Crozier – Funeral for a Hasidic rabbi – Boris Johnson’s new son – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 3,160,779; # of deaths worldwide: 219,265; # of cases U.S.: 1,035,765; # of deaths U.S.: 59,266.  No changes in the U.S. figures since last night, so clearly the figures have not been updated yet.  The number of active cases in China, officially, is down to 647.  Russia has seen a huge increase in new cases, almost 6,000.  Spain, sadly, has had an increase of more than 450 deaths.  Its case incidence rate is now over 0.05%.  On the whole, the number of new cases and the number of new deaths appear to be reaching a plateau. 

The weather has been cool, damp, and overcast for the last several days, but today it has cleared up at last.  It is sunny and warm, a near-perfect spring day.  It seems a pity that the weather was not like that yesterday when I was hiking through the concentration of trilliums; but then, if it had been, the trail would doubtless have been much more crowded. 

One of the casualties from the virus may be the Eden Center, the shopping center in Falls Church that was set up by the Vietnamese community in 1984 after shops and restaurants in the so-called “Little Saigon” area were being crowded out by the construction of the Clarendon Metro station and the opening of various shopping areas in Ballston.  It provided a wonderful assortment of restaurants along with an extensive supermarket where one could easily pick up items (such as fresh water chestnuts, for example) that were not readily obtainable anywhere else.  Store after store is being boarded up and it is not certain how many will re-open once the lockdown is over.  How, indeed, can any store remain operative when its rate of business has dropped by as much as 90%? 

Today has been eventful, at any rate by the standards of the solitude enforced by the stay-at-home restrictions.  In the morning I admitted an electrician to my house, since I have recently undergone temporary power outages when the rest of the neighborhood was unaffected.  He explained to me that there were issues with my circuit breaker, which was installed when my house was built sixty years ago and that in all probability it should be replaced soon.  That was certainly not welcome news, but he replaced a faulty breaker that seemed the most likely cause of the outages, and on the whole I consider that I got off lightly.

Then I heard the webinar for which I had signed up earlier in the week.  In brief, the recovery period will probably take a couple of years to complete.  Many people have been thrown out of work, and in some cases the incentive to seek employment is lacking, because they are earning more money through unemployment benefits than they could have earned while working.  Investments will continue as usual, with the investors seeking out those stocks that are most likely to increase as the economy starts to rebound.  It seems likely that we will as a nation experience a measure of inflation, particularly as the interest rates have been abnormally low for years.  Also, some industries will revert to normal more quickly than others.  Only about 30% of the workers will be able to tele-commute; the remainder of them will be forced to be at the workplace in person to discharge their responsibilities, and the restrictions for their being able to commute will not be lifted all at once.  It appears that the stimulus was probably the best course of action to take under the circumstances, and the presenters bestowed some credit on the administration for coming up with it so promptly.  I have often inveighed against Trump, so I must impartially record this praise of him from persons with greater financial expertise than me.

The afternoon I spent in company with close friends, a married couple whom I have known for years, and we walked together in Huntley Meadows Park.  I have not had many social occasions, as may be imagined, in recent weeks.  The hikes with the Vigorous Hikers have not really been group occasions; for the most part, we would meet at the beginning of the hikes, greet one another, and then go at our own paces.  Sometimes we would re-assemble for lunch, but more frequently we continued on our own.  I did join a couple of friends of mine for coffee at their place one morning last week, where we carefully maintained a distance of six feet from one another.  Today’s visit was more extensive.  My friends and I walked together several miles in Huntley Meadows Park, the largest county park in Fairfax County.  It is a preserved wetlands and appears to have a micro-climate of its own, since in some places the trees are unusually tall and slender, reminding me of the growth one sees in the Great Smokies.  Afterwards we returned to their house and ate ice cream together, and chatted about various matters.  They knew that I was keeping a journal and requested beforehand to bring them a copy.  They began to read it and commented on what they called my conversational style.  I hope that they are right.  I am not striving for any great standard of eloquence in these memoirs, but I like to think that my style is reasonably vigorous.

Some sort of justice may be done in the sorry case of the USS Roosevelt.  The Navy’s top leadership, after making an official inquiry of the case, has recommended the re-installation of Brett Crozier as its commander.  One thousand of its sailors, more than 20% total of the crew, have been stricken with the virus, thanks to the Navy’s dragging its feet in this matter as a result of Trump’s anxieties about the bad publicity Crozier’s pleas for treatment of the crew might have aroused.  However, James McPherson, the new acting Secretary of the Navy, knows very well on which side his bread is buttered.  He has launched a broader investigation, which will delay matters.  He says that he has some “unanswered questions” that the preliminary inquiry did not address.  One of these unanswered questions, no doubt, is whether or not Trump will erupt in fury at the notion of Crozier’s presence in the armed services again, where he can only be a walking reminder to all the world of Trump’s folly, vanity, arrogance, conceit, and pride.

A group of Orthodox Jews in New York City have participated in funeral procession for Rabbi Chaim Mertz, thereby incurring the resentment of Mayor De Blasio.  He has addressed a message to “the Jewish community” that participants in any other large gatherings will be subject to arrest.  This in turn has drawn ire from many of the New York Jews, who pointed out that they were no less disapproving than he was of the incident and that it was irrational to hold them responsible for the actions of one small splinter group.  But de Blasio’s response is understandable as well; about 2,500 people crowded to attend the funeral, completely disregarding the lockdown restrictions.   Thus in this case the fundamentalist Jews have shown themselves to be just as negligent as the fundamentalist Christians in other parts of the country. 

Carrie Symonds, Boris Johnson’s fiancée, has given birth to a healthy baby boy.  Symonds had contracted the virus, though in a relatively minor form; whereas Johnson, as previously noted, was incapacitated by the effects of the virus for some time.  But both are in good health now and their child is doing well.  I shall treasure, however, the remark that concluded the article reporting this propitious event:  “The precise number of how many children Johnson has, both inside and outside his previous marriages, is unknown.”

Today’s statistics as of 8:30 PM — # of cases worldwide: 3,217,325; # of deaths worldwide: 228,005; # of cases U.S.: 1,063,863; # of deaths U.S.: 61,635.  The total number of new cases is now highest in Brazil and Russia.  The U.S. has the greatest number of new deaths.  Our mortality rate is now about 5.7%. This rate is better than that of many other countries.  Some examples:  15.7% in the U.K., 13.5% in Italy, 14.4% in France, 12.1% in Sweden, 10.2% in Spain.  Even in Germany the mortality rate has gone up to 4%. 

The trillium hike – Memories of the trail – Illusions of permanence – Suicide of a health care professional – Plans for a virtual memorial service – Ron DeSantis’s gaffe – A presentation in costume – Evening statistics

Today I went on the Appalachian Trail from Manassas Gap off of Rte. 55 to the boundary of Sky Meadows and back – about 18 miles in all, with 3000 feet of elevation gain.  Technically speaking it was a group hike, but because the group was larger than ten people the hike organizer told everyone to go ahead as soon as each pulled up into the parking lot.  Since I arrived a few minutes early, I had the entire way to myself during the first part of the hike.  On the return I encountered some of the others, but they all paused for lunch while I pressed on forward, not wishing to ascend the last long climb immediately after eating.  This segment of the trail is the one noted for going through the area with the greatest concentration of trilliums, and they were in full bloom today, as well as numerous other wildflowers:  wild geranium, blue violets, yellow violets, starry chickweed, rue anemone, columbines, etc.  Redbud and dogwood trees were covered with blossoms.  In many places the hike was a feast for the ears as well as the eyes; the songbirds were caroling in all of their various calls.  I saw numerous cardinals and a pileated woodpecker as well.  This area is a popular place to visit and consequently I expected to encounter more people.  But it was a weekday, and the weather was cool and wet, which probably discouraged hikers.  There were occasional periods of rainfall that was fairly mild and gentle, although it did make the rocky sections slippery in places. 

I have often been on this segment of the AT and it has many memories for me.  There was the time in 2015, when the Appalachian Trail Conference met in Winchester and I led three of the hikes that year, all of them over 15 miles.  The summer was relatively mild, but that particular week the weather took a turn for the worst and became blisteringly hot.  I led one group from Rte. 522 to the parking area close to Trico Tower, and I remember halting the group when we were climbing from Manassas Gap after we had completed the steepest part of the ascent and having them take a drink of water to prevent them from getting dehydrated.  They all complied quite willingly.  It was on this hike that I met David Miller, who is well-known among through-hikers under the nickname of “Awol” and who has written a guidebook for the trail that is often used by them.  Towards the end of the hike we met two hikers coming in the opposite direction, and when they discovered who he was they were greatly excited, rather in the style of fans of a Hollywood celebrity.  He told me that he liked the way that I led the hike and gave me a copy of his book in appreciation; I have it still, and use it frequently.  It is an extremely valuable reference.

There is also the time that the Wanderbirds went on a memorial hike in honor of JM, a long-standing member of the group and a very remarkable man.  He lived to be 96 and retained health and vigor to the last.  On his 90^th birthday he gave himself what he referred to as a “birthday present”:  he went on a hike in the mountains that was nine miles long.  He did a hike of similar length on his 91^st birthday as well.  I cannot discover that he attempted any ambitious hikes after the age of 91.  Nonetheless he continued to get out of doors as much as possible, walking his dogs two or three miles each day.  It was only at the very end that his health failed.  He was stricken with influenza that developed complications.  When he was informed that it was serious he replied simply that he hoped it was mortal; he had no desire to linger on as an invalid for an indefinite number of months or years.  And he got his wish:  he passed away, gently and peaceably, after an illness of two weeks.  His was an old age to be envied.  The hike in his honor was one of the best-attended in the club’s history. 

These and other memories came to me as I was hiking today, and it was an odd sort of consolation for the recent ravages we have endured from the pandemic that the scene had altered so little over the years.  The impression of permanence, to be sure, is an illusion.  The Ice Age is not so very remote in the past, if one reckons by geological units of time, and we are still emerging from it.  Several thousand years ago, before the Ice Age began, the vegetation in this area was much more tropical.  It will doubtless alter again after the passing of hundreds and thousands of centuries.  But it will last my time.  A decade or two hence the trilliums and other blooms will flower at the beginning of May, the foliage will cast its shade, the birds will sing. 

While I have been taking my exercise and drinking in the beauties of spring, more tragedies have been occurring, this one among them:  Lorna Breen, an E.R. doctor in New York who is described as having been on the “front lines” in the battle against the virus for weeks on end, committed suicide during a visit to family in Charlottesville, Virginia.  I have no doubt that everyone in the hospitals must be undergoing a staggering amount of stress.  I noted earlier the story of Danielle Trezzi, the young Italian nurse who committed suicide under similar circumstances and for the same reasons.  One cannot blame them; one can only mourn for them.

As expected, it is not possible to have an in-person memorial service for FP (CC.’s husband).  His sons are compiling a slide show and will be adding text to it.  It should be available to friends next week.  How useless one feels under such circumstances!  You can’t really provide genuine consolation to anyone in mourning; one can only trust to the passage of time to dim their grief.  But to reach out to them in person sometimes a brief moment of solace to the mourners – one cannot expect anything more, of course.  CC says that it may be possible to have a memorial service some months later, when the lockdown is over. 

Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida, has referred to the state as “God’s waiting room.”  An avalanche of criticism has descended upon him for making this perfectly accurate statement:  Florida, after all, has more than its share of elderly retirees, many of whom are ill or disabled. 

Dan Ericksson and Artin Massihi, two doctors from Bakersfield, CA who own urgent care centers in the region, gave a press conference in which they released the conclusions they drew from the test data at their centers.  They claim that the virus is no more dangerous than influenza and that the death rates are greatly inflated.  Their data has not undergone any kind of review, and they have a vested interest in publicizing such conclusions; but apparently their presentation made an impression and various social platforms and media outlets have called them “brave” for presenting their skewed (and possibly fraudulent) data.  Strange as it appears, one of the factors that helped to make such an impact is that they were wearing their scrubs while they made the presentation.  I don’t understand why that circumstance would induce anyone look at them twice.  A broomstick can be dressed up too.

Today’s statistics as of 9:30 PM — # of cases worldwide: 3,137,761; # of deaths worldwide: 217,948; # of cases U.S.: 1,035,765; # of deaths U.S.: 59,266.  Brazil is now becoming an area of concern.  The number of cases is shooting up rapidly.  It is still below the median average rate for all of the countries in the world, but it has far and away the highest in South America.  About a quarter of its people live at the poverty level, so it has the potential of spreading rapidly.  The corruption that is so prevalent there will aggravate the problem. 

Morning statistics – Republican jitters – Rats affected by shortage of garbage – Boris Johnson – Las Vegas – Loss of a recycling center – Economic policy in the coming months – Death of FP – Tony Spell – Brian Kemp – Easing of restrictions – Belarus – Iran – Obliviousness of Trump – China and South Korea – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 11:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 3,017,770; # of deaths worldwide: 208,016; # of cases U.S.: 989,838; # of deaths U.S.: 55,497.  The incidence rate in Spain at this point is just under 0.05%, or one in two thousand per capita.  Virginia has endured a new high point in number of hospitalizations, but the number of new deaths is declining.  Governor Northam says that it will require 14 days of deceleration before beginning the first phase of re-opening businesses.  Non-essential businesses are closed until May 8^th at the earliest.

The Republicans are said to be apprehensive about the elections this coming November.  They must be aware that Trump has not exactly covered himself with laurels during the crisis, and they are worried not only that he will defeated but that his defeat will pull many of them down with them, thereby breaking their control of the Senate and the House.  They’ve been warned often enough about the dangers of associating themselves with Trump and never venturing to take a stand against his numerous follies, and they must bide the consequence of ignoring the warnings. 

Rats are being affected by the coronavirus, indirectly at least.  The shutting down of restaurants and the diminution of trash means that less food is available for them.  The various colonies of rats are fighting amongst themselves and there has been a spike in the cases of rat infanticide as well.  It is possible that they will start migrating to the vicinity of people’s homes as they follow the odor of food in kitchens. 

Boris Johnson has recovered from the virus.  He was inclined to dismiss warnings about the virus’s effects in earlier days, but he seems to have learned a few things from his experience.  He is now urging the U.K. to endure the lockdown restrictions a bit longer.  The British government is hoping to test 100,000 per day for the virus by April 30^th.  The U.K.’s death rate continues to be high and is currently at 13.5%.

Las Vegas is desperately trying to cling to its reputation as “Sin City.”  I have always described the city in my own mind as Malebolge, after the eighth circle of Dante’s Inferno, since its so-called pleasures have always seemed like penances to me.  Currently, however, it bears a closer resemblance to Limbo, with deserted streets and meager handfuls of pedestrians wandering about aimlessly.  The slot machines (which at this point are all electronic) have been shut off, casinos are shuttered, and the famous fountains of the Bellagio are not running.  Tourism, gambling, hospitality, and leisure account for one job of every three in Nevada, which means that the state’s economy is in even worse shape than that of its neighbors. 

On my excursions today I passed by the Fairfax City recycling center and discovered that it has been closed permanently.  The residents of the city may use one of the county facilities instead but this is a bit of an inconvenience.   The closed-up facility is less than a ten-minute drive from my house; the county facility is considerably further away.  However, it is a minor matter amidst the more pressing concerns about the virus and its aftermath.

I have signed up for a seminar on the Web that will discuss the financial situation at the current time and in the near future, when the stay-at-home restrictions will be lifted.  My guess is that economic activity will resume at full speed once the restrictions are lifted and that stocks will rise again.  Therefore the most prudent policy would appear to be to sit on one’s hands and not to sell out prematurely.  Of course, many people do not have the resources to do this, since a large number are coping with a loss of income while many businesses remain inoperative.  They will have to sell out when prices for their portfolio holdings are relatively small in order to keep their heads above water.  Thus the ones who are financially able to wait out the storm will profit at the expense of those who are not.  It all sounds a bit sordid, as so many economic scenarios do, and one hesitates to be in a position rather like profiteering, even by proxy.  But:

He who sins aught
Sins more than he ought.
But he who sins nought
Has much to be taught.
Beat or be beaten,
Eat or be eaten,
Be killed or kill,
Choose what you will.

CC’s husband passed away today.  He had been ill for a long time and of course the restrictions imposed by the virus made the last days of his caretaking more difficult, both physically and emotionally.  Many of us who would have attended the funeral will not be allowed to do so at this point; gatherings of more than ten people are still prohibited.

Tony Spell, as predicted, has ignored the restrictions of his house arrest and held a service packed with people, none of them wearing masks and none practicing social distancing – indeed, they could not have done so even if they had wished to, for there are hundreds of them packed together:  infinite squalor in in a little room. 

Brian Kemp has evidently decided that the lesser of two evils is to ignore the public disavowal he received from the President and to go ahead with the lifting of restrictions in the state of Georgia as originally planned rather than make a sorry spectacle of himself by canceling his schedule after Trump’s tantrum.  I rather wonder that he did not retort on the President with a tu quoque and point out that it was not so very long ago that Trump was urging governors to accelerate the lifting of the stay-at-home orders and even cheering on protestors in other states.  I suppose he wearily concluded that any self-justification would be so much wasted effort.  Indeed, what effect would such an attempt have?  No one’s opinion of Trump would be affected in the least.  The followers of his personality cult will never be persuaded that this demigod of theirs can err and the rest of the nation cannot detest him more thoroughly than they do now.

In general the easement of restrictions is beginning, both in some of the states in the U.S. and in some of the European nations.  Even in Spain children are able to play in the streets and the playgrounds.  Spain now has over 23,000 deaths due to the virus officially, but real number is probably higher; their figure counts only those who have been tested.  Many have died who may have caught the virus without being aware of it.  Still, the hope there is that the worst is over.  The situation is similar in Italy.  About twenty U.S. states are entering the first phase of lifting the lockdown.  Virginia is still holding fast to its June 10^th date for the end of the stay-at-home order. 

Belarus continues its policy of no lockdowns.  The official tally at this point is 11,289 cases and 75 deaths, but observers say that the figures may be as much as four or five times that amount.  The Ukraine, with four times as many people, has only 9,009 cases. Religious masses, soccer games, parades, boxing matches, etc., are all going on usual. But some of the people residing in that country, at least, do not seem to be placing much stock in their leader’s reassurances.  The stadiums are no longer full, and many do not venture out in public without face masks.  Nonetheless, Lukashenko insists that the virus is a “mass psychosis” and orders everything to go on as usual.  One must say that the man practices what he preaches.  On Sunday Orthodox believers attended Easter services, and he himself participated along with his 15-year old son.

In Iran over 700 people have died from ingesting methanol, erroneously believing that it could cure the virus.  Mosques remain closed there and the iftar meals – the meals after sunset during Ramadan, which under normal circumstance involve large groups of friends and relatives – are limited to immediate family members.  Shops have re-opened there, but many officials fear a fresh outbreak and believe that the lifting of the lockdown has been premature.

“There has been so much unnecessary death in this country. It could have been stopped and it could have been stopped short, but somebody a long time ago, it seems, decided not to do it that way. And the whole world is suffering because of it.”  The spokesman is none other than – Donald Trump!  And he seriously hasn’t a clue that the “somebody” he refers to might be himself.

China claims that the number of active cases is now 723.  That would be good news if so; but as always, their data must be taken with caveats.  South Korea seems to be controlling the virus outbreak by now.  It has over 10,000 cases total and of these, at least 8,000 have recovered.  The death count from the virus is only 243 – impressive for a nation with over 51 million in population.  The death rate from the virus in the U.S is more than 34 times higher. 

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 3,064,142; # of deaths worldwide: 211,533; # of cases U.S.: 1,010,356; # of deaths U.S.: 56,797. Some sad milestones passed today:  over three million cases total and over one million of them in the U.S. 

Morning statistics – Shopping at a popular grocery chain – Kim Jong-un – Tony Spell above the law – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 2,938,729; # of deaths worldwide: 203,798; # of cases U.S.: 960,896; # of deaths U.S.: 54,265.  The rate of acceleration in the incidence both of new cases and of deaths appears to be slowing down.  China claims now to have only about 800 active cases remaining.

Today I shopped at Trader Joe’s.  I’ve been avoiding this store for some time.  It is popular and whenever I have passed it during walks in the area I have seen long lines stretching out onto the sidewalk, for it is currently very careful about the number of shoppers who can occupy it at one time.  However, I discovered that the first hour of the morning that it is open is available to seniors only, so I tried it out.  As with Safeway, it is relying on the honor system:  some of the customers could by no stretch of the imagination be over 60 years old.  But in general the experience was less disagreeable than I anticipated.  Indeed it was surprisingly comfortable, for generally in the past it can get quite crowded and there is usually a bit of a wait in the lines for the cashiers.  In the current setup I was able to select what I needed and then go directly to one of the cashiers without waiting at all.  The store had most of the items I needed.  However, there was one section that was devoted to baking needs, whose shelves were completely empty.

There is still no definite word on the status of Kim Jong-un.  He may be dead; he may be in the throes of the coronavirus; he may be recuperating at a resort town – no one knows.  Trump has said that the reports about Kim Jong-un’s illness are “fake news,” which is his favorite expression for any news item that he finds potentially inconvenient or embarrassing.  Why he feels that he has a vested interest in Kim Jong-un’s continuing existence, is something of a mystery.  But then everything about Trump is an enigma – or perhaps there really is no enigma at all, except to those who attempt to find some meaning in it.

Tony Spell, the Louisiana pastor who obstinately defies the mandate against large gatherings, has been placed under house arrest.  He has had a monitor placed on his ankle.  But I’m sure house arrest means nothing to him.  For one thing, his church is a mere fifty yards from his house.  A good long sentence in prison alongside some violent felons perhaps might chastise him effectively, but that is precisely what the state of Louisiana refuses to do.

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 2,994,677; # of deaths worldwide: 206,988; # of cases U.S.: 987,160; # of deaths U.S.: 55,413. 

Morning statistics – Alexandria – Is Kim Jong-un still alive? – Symptoms of the virus – Florida beaches – A solicitous father – Local elections postponed for two weeks – Death of a phlebotomist – The race against time to transport a son to see his father’s last days – Reminiscence of my father’s passing – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 7:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 2,846,467; # of deaths worldwide: 197,855; # of cases U.S.: 925,758; # of deaths U.S.: 52,217. 

I went to Alexandria today.  It has been months since I’ve last seen it.  The riverbank has been built up to an astonishing degree.  The residences extend nearly all the way to the Woodrow Wilson Bridge.  Several people were out but in general were behaving well with respect to the social distancing guidelines.  The Farmers’ Market was open, to my surprise.  It was modified from the usual setup, of course.  In order to make purchases, customers had to do so in advance online, and then go to the market itself to pick up their orders.

I can’t help wondering what will become of areas such as Alexandria.  There are numerous river towns that have built up charming clusters of small independent shops and restaurants, interspersed with walkways that are often decorated with hanging baskets of flowers.  Even after the restrictions imposed by the virus are lifted, it seems to me that people’s shopping habits will alter.  Already ordering online has become more and more common, and small independent shops are less busy than they were in earlier days.  I earnestly hope I am wrong, but I can’t help thinking that the only stores that will survive are the ones that belong to large chains that have the resources to tide their outlets over during slack periods.

Rumors continue to fly about the health of Kim Jong-un.  April 25^th is the celebration of the birth of the nation’s revolutionary army, but he was not present at any of the ceremonies.  His last public appearance was on April11th – two weeks ago.  There is speculation that he has undergone heart surgery.  China has sent a delegation, with some medical experts in attendance, to try to find out more.  Kim Jong-un has no designated heir, and his death could trigger a major upheaval in the country.  China has ample reason to value stability in its neighbor:  a civil war there could end up in driving millions of refugees across the border, most of them malnourished and in poor health.  (NOTE:  an update from later in the day – the report now is that Kim’s surgery was performed as an emergency procedure after he had a heart attack, that the surgery was botched, and that his hopes of recovery are poor.  It is even possible that he is dead by now.)

More symptoms have been listed to determine whether or not one has the virus.  Previously the only ones agreed upon were shortness of breath, fatigue, a dry cough, and fever.  Now chills, muscle pain, headache, sore throat, and new loss of taste or smell have been added to the criteria.  Even those who have recovered have painful stories to tell.  One has reported that she basically had to learn again how to walk; another that he had train himself to breath normally.  Others have been more fortunate, escaping with mild symptoms similar to those of the flu for two weeks or so. 

More beaches are opening in Florida.  This measure may be less risky than previously thought.  Studies have suggested that the virus is caught from being indoors with other people and that it is transmitted much less readily outdoors.  But the studies are tentative and even their authors stress that it would be premature to rely on them just yet.

A strange variant of the story of Lot and his daughters is being acted out on the Internet.  One father was the sole caregiver of his daughter after his wife died in labor.  When she became an adult she moved out to live with her boyfriend, but this relationship floundered and she returned to her father.  She then discovered that she was pregnant.  Three months after her pregnancy was diagnosed, she fell into melancholy and took to spending a great deal of time alone in her room, prompting her father to install a video surveillance camera.  Surely, one would think, talking to her directly would have been a more effective way of dealing with the issue, to say nothing of its being less costly.  However, the camera was installed, and presently he discovered that she was masturbating a great deal.  The concern that her sexual needs were not being met, so he claims, prompted him to initiate a relationship with her that greatly exceeds the limits customarily observed between parent and child.  She complied, apparently quite willingly, and she has even expressed her wish to have a second child with him after she has delivered the first.  Child abuse of this nature is not exactly a novelty, of course; what makes this particular instance odd is that the father had no hesitation in describing it quite openly on the Reddit news aggregation.  Even if that unfortunate young woman is ever to disentangle herself from this obscene predator, she will probably be mentally unhinged for years to come.  There seems to be no opportunity of removing her from his clutches, since he is hiding under a pseudonym.  One can only hope that sooner or later his dissolute habits catch up with him.  Where is the coronavirus when you truly need it?

Local elections have been moved, but not to November as originally suggested.  The election date has been changed from May 5^th to May 19^th, and votes already entered by absentee ballot remain valid.  Governor Northam has urged everyone to use absentee balloting. 

Deborah Gatewood, a phlebotomist at Beaumont Hospital in Detroit, displayed symptoms of the virus on March 18^th.  During the space of five days, as her symptoms were becoming more severe, she attempted four times to get tested for the virus but was denied each time.  On March 27^th she was discovered by her daughter, barely conscious.  Gatewood’s daughter and son-in-law drove her to a hospital, having the sense to select one that was more responsive.  But it was too late.  When she was checked in, she already had a fever of 106 degrees.  Even though she was tended with care and intubated for two weeks, her kidneys began to fail.  She died on April 20^th.  Gatewood had worked at Beaumont for 31 years, but she could not prevail on them to allow her to be tested, although symptoms were becoming increasingly obvious with each successive visit.  If this is how the hospital treats its long-term employees when they fall ill, one can imagine what their reception of their other patients must be like.  But the hospital is probably typical of the Detroit hospitals at large.  I hope and trust that when the ravages of the virus are over, people will flee in droves from this disintegrating city.

I have had more news from CC.  Her husband’s end is soon approaching.  It is always sad to see a loved one slowly dying before your eyes, but in this case the restrictions imposed by the virus make matters even worse.  One son is now racing up to Brooklyn to bring the other son back with him.  Pray Heaven that they will be back in time to see his last moments. 

When my father died I was with friends in central Virginia, and my brother, who was visiting my parents at the time, bore the brunt of the burden.  It was he who checked my father into the hospice and when I called to ask whether I should hasten back, he said that there was nothing I could do and that I might as well adhere to my original schedule and stay where I was.  Indeed, had I driven back at the utmost speed I would have been too late; my father died the day after he was checked into the hospice.  So I was spared the sight of my father’s dying before my eyes and it is doubtful that I could have offered any comfort had I been present – but I regret all the same that my brother had to deal on his own with contacting the funeral home and making the last arrangements. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 2,917,552; # of deaths worldwide: 203,119; # of cases U.S.: 959,143; # of deaths U.S.: 54,228.  The U.S. is now accounting about one-third of the virus cases and one-quarter of the deaths.  The incidence rate has shot ahead those of France and the U.K.  Virginia has had 772 new cases today, the highest increase yet.  The death toll is nearly 6,000 in New Jersey and nearly 22,000 in New York.

Morning statistics – An overdose of detective fiction of the “noir” school – Modern veneration for Eros – How biographies become fiction – Vincent Van Gogh, the film and the reality – Examples of Aphrodite with her attribute of laughter – Time to get out of the house – The middle of spring – The bio-diversity of Appalachia – My aunt in Manhattan – Disinfectant proposed as a cure for COVID-19 – Soda bread – Closure of White Mountain National Forest – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 2,746,954; # of deaths worldwide: 191,899; # of cases U.S.: 886,709; # of deaths U.S.: 50,243.  The number of cases in Virginia is now nearly 11,000.  Non-essential surgeries have been banned in Virginia for over a month; the ban has been extended for another week. 

On account of various social activities being brought to a standstill, I have more time on my hands than usual and I have putting it to use by perusing various examples of modern fiction, such as the works of – but I will be charitable and conceal the names of the authors.  We criticize the Victorians for their over-emphasis of the type of love known as storge (affection, familial love, or companionship among those who have been thrown together by chance) but readers in future generations might find our veneration of Eros equally risible.  This trend is especially prevalent in detective fiction.  The protagonist detective may be happily married or he may be single, but in all cases he is a stallion and the author is continually interrupting the story with episodes designed to show us that, however mean and gritty life is on the streets, every moment in the bedroom is a foretaste of Paradise.  No instances of impotence, no premature ejaculation, no halitosis, no minor discomforts even, and (above all) no failure to stimulate orgasm in his sexual partner.  The female detective, similarly, is the embodiment of allure to every male she encounters, even the criminals whom she is pursuing.  If she does not receive a proposition from one of the good guys or is not the object of attempted rape every alternate chapter, she’s failed.

Even in works that purport to be biographies we see the same craze.  Some months ago I watched a film that professed to be a narrative of the last year of the life of Vincent Van Gogh.  I say “professed” because the account given in the film was very different from the reality.  Van Gogh was not, in life, noted for his success with women.  His first proposal of marriage was to the daughter of his landlady, who turned him down because she was secretly engaged to someone else.  He next focused his attentions on his cousin, who was a widow with a child, and seven years his senior.  Her circumstances made it unlikely that she would have much opportunity of remarrying, but all the same she was not desperate enough to take him on.  When he proposed to her she exclaimed, “No, never!” and when he persisted in his pursuit of her she complained to her father in order to get him to stop stalking her.  After that episode he carried on a relationship with a prostitute that does not seem to have brought much satisfaction to either of them.  It had come to an end well before he moved to Arles.  None of this comes through in the film.  Instead, every woman he meets (including his own sister-in-law and the thirteen-year old daughter of the couple running the inn) is eager to jump his bones.  The idea that someone can be a great artist without necessarily being a great lover has no place in the contemporary movie-makers’ scheme of things.  To be sure, the movie was French; but that, while it may be an explanation, is not an excuse for such a grotesque distortion of the truth.

The ancient Greeks would surely be puzzled by our obsession over erotic love and, above all, the deadly earnestness with which we treat it.  They may have deified it, but they explicitly described Aphrodite as “laughter-loving.”

For it is a curious circumstance that despite all of the breathless descriptions of sexual congress in these volumes, no one appears to be enjoying himself very much.  The authors wish to assure us that they are, no doubt.  They tell us so on every page, almost in every sentence.  The ecstasies provided by these encounters are loaded with superlatives.  They doubtless take place in lofty canopied beds upon bedsheets woven of the finest Egyptian cotton, without wrinkle or crease.  Nonetheless, instead of the palpitating anticipation that the authors so evidently wish to inspire, I find myself exclaiming, “But . . . but . . . I am bored!”  And when I read yet again about how the lovely object of desire possesses the allurements of Hera, Athena, and Aphrodite all rolled up into one, thereby rendering the Judgment of Paris completely superfluous, a suspicion enters my mind, swift and uncontrollable as a minnow darting through the current of a woodland stream, whether there may not be an element of wish-fulfillment involved.  Are you not aware, I mentally address the author, that that commonplace young woman, to whom you could assign no role more significant than that of the fifth murder victim (or is it the eleventh? – I lose track) could, under certain circumstances, provide the excitement and gratification ordinarily associated with an evening in the company of Cleopatra? – just as yonder insignificant-looking plant, when treated with the appropriate care and attentiveness, can be persuaded to yield the loveliest of blossoms?  Again – although here I cannot speak from personal experience – is it not conceivable that the feisty spirited independent gun-slinging heroine might, under certain circumstances, be persuaded to accept without protest the caresses of a man who lacks the physique of a WWE wrestler?  What has become, I am driven to ask, of the healthy, hearty eroticism that enabled Shakespeare to address impassioned sonnets to a woman whose beauty is nothing like the sun and whose breath is far inferior to that of the scent of perfume?  What has become of the cheerful indecency of Richard Sheridan explaining the germination of flowers to his attentive pupil?

In the close covert of a grove
By nature formed for scenes of love,
Said Susan in a lucky hour:
“Observe yon sweet geranium flower.
How straight upon its stalk it stands,
And tempts our violating hands,
Whilst the soft bud, as yet unspread,
Hangs down its pale declining head.
Yet soon as it is ripe to blow,
The stems shall rise, the head shall glow.”
“Nature,” said I, “my lovely Sue,
To all her followers lends a clue.
Her simple laws themselves explain
As links of one continued chain;
For her the mysteries of creation
Are but the works of generation.
Yon blushing, strong, triumphant flower
Is in the crisis of its power:
But short, alas, its vigorous reign;
He sheds his seed, and drops again.
The bud that hangs in pale decay
Feels not, as yet, the plastic ray.
Tomorrow’s sun shall bid him rise,
Then, too, he sheds his seed, and dies.
But words, my love, are vain and weak;
For proof, let bright example speak.”
Then straight before the wondering maid
The tree of life I gently laid.
“Observe, sweet Sue, his drooping head,
How pale, how languid, and how dead.
Yet let the sun of thy bright eyes
Shine but a moment, it shall rise.
Let but the dew of thy soft hand
Refresh the stem, it straight shall stand.
Already, see, it swells, it grows,
Its head is redder than the rose,
Its shriveled fruit, of dusky hue,
Now glows—a present fit for Sue.
The balm of life each artery fills,
And in o’erflowing drops distils.”
“Oh, me!” cried Susan, “When is this?
What strange tumultuous throbs of bliss!
Sure, never mortal till this hour
Felt such emotion at a flower!
Oh, serpent, cunning to deceive,
Sure ’tis this tree that tempted Eve.
The crimson apples hang so fair
Alas! what woman could forbear?”
“Well hast thou guessed, my love,” I cried,
“It is the tree by which she died –
The tree which could alone content her.
All nature, Susan, seeks the centre.
Yet let us still poor Eve forgive,
It’s the tree by which we live.
For lovely women still it grows,
And in the centre only blows.
But chief for thee it spreads its charms,
For paradise is in thy arms …”
I ceased, for nature kindly here
Began to whisper in her ear,
And lovely Sue lay softly panting
While the geranium tree was planting,
’Til in the heat of amorous strife
She burst the mellow tree of life.
“Oh, heaven!” cried Susan with a sigh,
“The hour we taste – we surely die.
Strange raptures seize my fainting frame,
And all my body glows with flame.
Yet let me snatch one parting kiss
To tell my love I die with bliss –
That pleased thy Susan yields her breath;
Oh, who would live, if this be death?”

Which is a great deal more satisfying to read than the endless perorations about the physical perfections and the sexual athletics of the modern-day partners of these novels’ protagonists.

All of the above is quite a departure from concerns about the coronavirus and the impact it has been having on daily affairs.  I have been sitting indoors too much.  I must go outside.

Later . . .

I went out on a 9-mile loop, feeling fairly certain that I would not encounter many people.  The weather was cool and damp, continually threatening to rain.  My expectations were answered:  for the most part, there were few pedestrians.  And yet the walk was quite pleasurable on the whole.  The air was fresh and invigorating, as it often is after a rainfall, and many of the gardens were full of azaleas, whose colors were at the peak of their saturation.  In particular I was pleased to see many clusters of pinxter azaleas, with their distinctive long stamens and narrow white petals edged with pink.  The only disagreeable part occurred during a half-mile stretch through a type of area more common in California than here:  a wealthy neighborhood containing large and handsome houses with extensive parcels of land attached to each, but which for some mysterious reason lacks the resources for sidewalks or even roadside shoulders, thereby forcing pedestrians to walk directly on the asphalt.  Probably the current circumstances make it less unpleasant than it ordinarily would be, on account of the diminished volume of automobile traffic.  Nonetheless I hastened through it as quickly as I could and I was very glad when it ended.  But in general I felt refreshed and re-energized, despite the over-hanging clouds and the dullness of the sky.  Spring is advancing; the leaves of the trees are losing that translucence they display upon their first appearance of the season; wildflowers bestrew the grass wherever they are permitted to grow.  One of the advantages of getting out of doors frequently is that one is continually reminded of the activity among flora and fauna that functions independently of mankind.  Such non-human activity is perhaps especially apparent in the Appalachian forest land and piedmont, which is one of the most bio-diverse areas on the planet.  It is indeed somewhat surprising that so little of this luxuriant ecoregion is reflected on our own fiction – but I must not digress upon modern American fiction again.

I spoke with my aunt after I returned.  She is managing, as I think, remarkably well.  She is living on her own and will be 90 in July, but she is coping by getting her groceries delivered to her and is still preparing her own meals.  She tells me that my cousin was somewhat more ill than my conversation with him led me to believe.  At one point he was worried enough to consider entering a hospital, but happily that proved not to be necessary.

Today Trump advocated either injecting or ingesting disinfectant as a preventative against the virus, much to the consternation of medical experts or indeed of anyone who is familiar with basic chemistry.  Lysol was quick to follow-up with a public announcement not to use its product either internally or externally.  Both medical experts and members of Congress weighed in against this recklessly irresponsible advice.  But the best response perhaps was Hillary Clinton’s:  “Please don’t poison yourself because Donald Trump thinks it could be a good idea.”

I made soda bread today.  It doesn’t have the same texture as bread made with yeast, of course, but it doesn’t disintegrate in my hands the way the peanut butter bread did when I tried out that recipe earlier.  And its flavor is quite good.  I haven’t given up on the starter, though.  It does seem to be bubbling much than it did earlier.  And I will be on the lookout for yeast in the stores as well.  Sooner or later it has to turn up.

New Hampshire has closed the entirety of White Mountain National Forest.  Several miles of the Appalachian Trail go through there.  This is bad news for through-hikers.  Since most of them are “Nobo” – northbound, starting from Springer Mountain and ending at Mt. Katahdin – they probably will not be reaching that area for another two months.  By that time it may re-open.  In any case, it’s a severe blow to the local hikers.

Today’s statistics as of 10:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 2,830,051; # of deaths worldwide: 197,245; # of cases U.S.: 925,038; # of deaths U.S.: 52,185.

Morning statistics – Sending in the ballot – Discussions with neighbors – Fetching a son from New York to be present for his father’s last days – Elizabeth Warren – COVID-19 in California – Fox News makes headlines on its own account – Jim Bakker – How religion has suffered from the influx of emotionalism – Brian Kemp let down by Trump at the last minute – Ramadan – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 7:30 AM — # of cases worldwide: 2,656,671; # of deaths worldwide: 185,192; # of cases U.S.: 849,092; # of deaths U.S.: 47,681. 

The local elections will be held at the originally scheduled dates, so I sent in my absentee ballot.

The weather was cloudy and threatening to rain for most of the early afternoon, so not many people were out today.  But I chatted briefly with a few neighbors who were working in their gardens.  One gave some strands of lemon balm, which adds a pleasant flavoring to drinks.  We exchanged information about the best times to go to various grocery stores in the area.  She told me that Trader Joe’s has a seniors-only hour at 8:00-9:00, so I will try shopping there the next time I need to pick up groceries.  We joined in lamenting that so many farmers are being forced to throw away food at the same time that numerous others are searching everywhere to purchase it. 

I heard from CC.  Her husband FP is in the hospice.  The estimate is that the end will come in 1-3 weeks.  One son is in the area; he will drive up to New York to fetch his brother, who will then reside in the basement for a week in order to quarantine himself.  Then he will be allowed to approach his father, provided he wears a mask and gloves, and does not come too close.  At this point all that the family can do is to hope that FP will last beyond that first week so that he can bid farewell to his son.  What a stressful time this must be for them!  The situation would have been difficult enough during normal times, but the restrictions imposed by the virus make it positively nightmarish.

Don Reed, the eldest brother of Elizabeth Warren, has passed away from the coronavirus.  Warren was undeniably the most able of the candidates for president running during the Democratic primary, a much more vital personality and vigorous intelligence than either Biden or Sanders.  Alas, she is also very far to the left – too far to be accepted by the mainstream.  Still it can hardly be doubted that if she had been President at this time instead of Trump, the national response to the crisis, both on the medical and economic fronts, would have been much less chaotic than it is now.  Her brother was 86 and his death cannot be called a tragedy, but the loss of any sibling must be felt by the survivors.  It is characteristic of Warren that during this private sorrow she took the time publicly to thank the medical care professionals who looked after Reed during his last days. 

The contagion rate of the virus has slowed down in areas, but unfortunately it is still raging in California.  The state experienced 117 new deaths in the past 24 hours, the highest death count in a single day since it began tracking deaths.  The rate of new cases has slowed down in Santa Clara County, in the Bay area, but Los Angeles County continues to see an accelerating rate in new cases and one of the highest death rates from the disease in the nation.  My brother lives in that city; he is active and healthy, with no underlying conditions, but his residence in such a hot spot is a source of worry.

Fox News is making headlines on its own account, probably quite unintentionally.  CNN anchors Brooke Baldwin and Chris Cuomo and reporter Richard Quest have all come down with the virus.  In a touching demonstration of sympathy for her fellow-journalists, Laura Ingraham accused them of setting up a “faux reality show.”  Several viewers tweeted their dismay afterwards, and even some of her co-workers were appalled.  Seth McFarlane described her remark as “insane” and added, “I really cannot fathom that we produce content for the same corporation.”  It may be so, but Ingraham’s heartless, brainless display of callousness is thoroughly in line with the organization’s constant attempts to downplay the effects of the virus and my guess is that Fox will champion Ingraham over McFarlane.  Fox News in general has been assiduous in promoting conspiracy theories of all varieties ever since Trump assumed office, thus bearing out the dictum that it is much less humiliating to believe oneself persecuted than insignificant.

I have already referred to Tony Spell’s effrontery in demanding that his followers donate their stimulus checks to him, but it pales in comparison to the rapacity of televangelist Jim Bakker.  He attempted to sell a silver solution that he claimed as a cure for the virus when it was nothing but quack medicine; and when he was deluged with lawsuits and cut off by his credit card companies in consequence, he has pleaded for donations and said that his massive network will be totally broke if he does not receive financial support from his followers.  That is to say, when he failed to deprive them of money by fraud, he is now reaching out to them for charity – and from people who are much less wealthy than he is.  He is 80 years old and might surely be content with the worldly goods he has already acquired, but he will continue to grasp and claw and gorge on every dollar that has a chance of coming into his hands and, in all probability, with his last audible breath will cry out for “More! More!” of the gold that provides such solace to his soul.  Christ might have said that one cannot serve both God and Mammon, but Bakker, determined sort that he is, has certainly given it the good old college try.

The Romantic movement of the early 19^th century ushered in “the great wallow of emotion which, though often criticized, has lasted ever since.”  C. S. Lewis, whom I have quoted, is surely correct in stigmatizing it as a retrograde development, but I believe that religion has been one of its greatest sufferers.  The American evangelist movement is proof of it.  In this crisis its leaders have shown themselves utterly without scruple, impenetrable in their willful ignorance, unabashed in their greed, never caring how their conduct might endanger the lives of their congregations or of their neighbors at large.  And their followers are no better:  not one voice has been lifted in protest at such disgraceful exhibitions and they are even ready, as is the case of the parents of the unfortunate students of Liberty College, to disregard the health and safety of their own children. 

Brian Kemp, the governor of Georgia, has been promoting an aggressive plan to re-open the state as swiftly as possible, despite the advice of the medical experts.  For a long time he thought that he would be pleasing Trump by doing so.  He had ample reason for this supposition; for Trump has sent out numerous words to encouragement to protestors in other states to defy the stay-at-home orders issued by their governors.  But last night Trump has completely reversed his position, just a few hours after he privately expressed support of Kemp’s plan, he has publicly announced that the plan is too reckless.  So now Kemp either has to go through with the plan, knowing all the while that he will receive no support from the White House if any mishap occurs (such as, for example, hospitals so crowded with patients that it will be necessary set up field hospitals in public parks [as in New York], morgues crammed so much with bodies that it will be necessary to resort to ice rinks for the backlog [as in Spain], several thousand additional deaths, and other trifling inconveniences of that kind) – will he, I say, be forced to go forward with his plan on his own or does he undo the machinery he’s set in motion?  The first phase is scheduled to go into effect tomorrow, so he doesn’t have much time to make up his mind.  It’s his own fault.  He should have taken a lesson from the woman who nearly lost her life after swallowing chloroquine when Trump mistakenly promoted it as a cure for the virus.  After that experience she gave the following advice to the public:  “Don’t believe anything that the president says.”

Ramadan begins today and will last until May 23^rd.  It is a holiday based on a lunar calendar and for that reason is continually shifting every year through different seasons.  For Muslims in the Northern hemisphere, the timing of the holiday this year is nearly the worst possible.  Observance of the holiday involves a sunrise-to-sunset fast every day for a month, and at this time of year the hours of daylight are approaching the maximum.  In Washington the period of fasting will be 15-16 hours per day.  Those relying on restaurants for food delivery may run into difficulties; the hours available for delivery will be sharply curtailed.  Mosques are closed – the Muslim countries in general have been behaving very sensibly about prohibiting large assemblages of people, even for religious purposes – and the appropriate prayers will have to be conducted at private homes.  Religious visits to Mecca and Medina have been suspended, even though under normal circumstances the influx of visitors during Ramadan is an important part of Saudi Arabia’s tourism industry.  Traditionally Muslims gather in large get-togethers during the meals after sundown, as the Jews do for Passover, but this year they will have to confine their celebrations to their individual homes.   I am not religious myself, and of course even if I were I would not be participating in either Easter or Ramadan, but I am always sorry to hear of circumstances that deprive people of innocent enjoyment and of the opportunity to worship in their own way. 

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 2,717,934; # of deaths worldwide: 190,630; # of cases U.S.: 880,204; # of deaths U.S.: 49,845.  As noted earlier, our country normally loses about 55,000 people per year to influenza.  The number of people killed by the virus is quickly approaching this amount and it has been active here for only three months. 

Morning statistics – Actions of Fox News contradict its words – Face masks required in some states – A meager penalty for Tony Spell – Spelling as a creative art form – The parable of the talents – A friend’s experiences in flying – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 2,580,630; # of deaths worldwide: 179,063; # of cases U.S.: 819,321; # of deaths U.S.: 45,355.  The countries with the highest death rates per capita are now, in descending order, Belgium, Spain, Italy, France, U.K., Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, Ireland, and the U.S.  Sweden’s mortality rate is climbing steadily upwards, which may cause some of its officials to reconsider its somewhat lax policy towards containment of the virus. 

Fox News, which has consistently downplayed the effects of the virus and has portrayed the reports about it from other news networks as part of a conspiracy to denigrate Trump, has been revealed not to believe a word of what it was claiming.  In a memo to the Fox News staff, the CEO reduced the “staff footprint” at the New York headquarters and other bureaus, urging employees to telecommute instead.  Imaginary as they profess to believe the virus to be, they nonetheless go to considerable lengths to take precautions against it for their own employees.  I am bound to say that Fox News has been putting itself to a needless trouble in trying to promote their theories.  There is no need for a “conspiracy” to circulate the notion that Trump is arbitrary, peevish, irritable, capricious, erratic, fickle, ill-tempered, ill-informed, ill-natured, and ill-bred; his actions alone are sufficient for this purpose.

The following states require wearing a face mask when going out in public:  Connecticut, Hawaii, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island.  It is not clear whether this extends to various outdoor recreational activities such as jogging, where a face mask used to prevent the spread of micro-particles can defeat its own ends.  Intense exercise causes people to pant heavily, and if they are wearing masks they will constantly be infusing these with droplets from the nose and mouth.  For my own part, I wear a mask when strolling on the streets and entering any store or public building, but I do not wear one while hiking. 

At long last Tony Spell, the Louisiana pastor who has constantly defied the stay-at-home order to perform massive services in his church, has been arrested.  But again, his punishment was meted out in such a half-hearted manner as to deprive it of all of its sting.  A protestor was demonstrating against his repeated violations of the stay-at-home order when he happened to be driving a church bus.  Spell attempted to frighten the protestor by driving straight at him and stopping just five feet away.  Spell was charged with aggravated assault.  But he paid a $5000 bond and was released the same day.  So essentially he received no punishment at all.   Five thousand dollars is small change to Tony Spell, who rakes in millions from his duped supporters.  Since the said supporters came out in numbers to cheer him when he walked away from prison, there is no reason to pity them for yielding for his attempt to deprive them of their stimulus checks.  Let them by impoverished by this man, if that’s what they want; they deserve no better.

Numerous photos of the protestors coming out to march against the lockdowns in the various states are being posted all over the Internet.  The home-made signs that many of them display are somewhat curious:  “athletits” for “athletes”; “peaple” for “people”;  “coice” for “choice”.  We seem to be reverting to the literacy level of the generation just before George Eliot’s, as she describes in The Mill on the Floss: “a generation with whom spelling was a matter of private judgment.” 

Our President has recently displayed a greater knowledge of theological matters than I had given him credit for, or at the very least a degree of cognizance of certain passages from the New Testament.  Recently some relief was distributed to members of the restaurant industry.  The big chains swallowed up the lion’s share of it, with the swiftness and rapacity of cormorants, while the small independent restaurant owners, who needed it most, had to content themselves with crumbs from the table.  Trump has thus provided the nation with a practical exposition of the parable of the talents (Matthew, 25:14-30), in which we learn that the rich shall have more.

MF was compelled to take a flight to Miami to help her daughter pack and move her furniture back to Maryland.  The flight was almost empty.  And she was fortunate to obtain one; most flights have been canceled.  She took photos of the airport while she was waiting for the flight; it was nearly deserted. 

Today’s statistics as of 10:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 2,637,673; # of deaths worldwide: 184,217; # of cases U.S.: 848,994; # of deaths U.S.: 47,676.  China’s official number of cases still active has sunk below 1,000. 

Morning statistics – Hiking on the Green Mountain Trail and in Seven Bends State Park – Social distancing not observed on the freeways – Rumors circulating about Kim Jong-un – Ban on immigration – Validity of the virus challenged – The virus triumphantly meets the test – The sourdough starter is a non-starter

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 2,554,568; # of deaths worldwide: 177,402; # of cases U.S.: 817,952; # of deaths U.S.: 45,279.  China’s number of active cases is now just over 1,000 – always assuming that their data can be believed. 

Today the Vigorous Hikers covered the Green Mountain area and the Seven Bends State Park.  I have been hiking in the region for years but I am not familiar with either.  The Seven Bends State Park is new, so it is not surprising that I haven’t been there before.  I was in the Green Mountain area once previously, but only on a trail shared by hikers and ATVs; the experience with ATVs whizzing by the hikers without mufflers was so unpleasant that I’ve been avoiding the area ever since.  However, the trail was closed to ATVs for repairs, and the ascent along the Green Mountain Trail was unfamiliar to me.  After we reached the Massanutten Trail and had lunch, we descended to Seven Bends State Park.  There is still work to be done; several of the trails do not have blazes.  But the ascent from the park back up to the Massanutten Trail was magnificent.  We certainly practiced social distancing; there were eleven of us in all and we walked in groups of four or less.  And we encountered no one else on the trails, except at the end:  during the descent from the Massanutten Trail along the Wagon Road there was a group of five teenagers sitting together and smoking, doubtless in an attempt to fortify their lungs against the virus. 

Some government tests have indicated that sunlight destroys the virus quickly; if so, hiking out of doors appears to be more beneficial than ever. 

Driving back and forth to the trailhead via the freeways has demonstrated that social distancing does not apply to behavior on the roads.  Drivers still prefer tailgating to passing, even when the passing lane to the left is clear for miles on end.

Kim Jong-Un is rumored to be in surgery.  I have to say “rumored” because there is no way of getting verifiable news from North Korea.  He certainly was absent from the annual ceremonies in honor of his grandfather, the founder of the dynasty.  And even though he is only 36, he leads a very unhealthy lifestyle, over-indulging in food, in drink, in sex – in everything, in short. 

Trump has imposed a total ban on immigration.  The Democrats, who have been justifiably critical of Trump’s handling of the virus crisis for months, are now gathering in opposition against him for employing this elementary precaution.  In light of the knowledge of how the virus is transmitted, the less travel between nations the better.  The Democrats are no more to be trusted than Trump is, though they may be less inconsistent.

“Does anybody have the guts to say this COVID-19 is a political ploy? Asking for a friend. Prove me wrong.”  Thus John W. McDaniel, from Ohio, in protest against the lockdown.  This easy assertion, whose sweepingness commands a certain admiration, was posted on March 13^th.  He contracted the virus and died a few days later on April 15^th.  I suppose he might consider that to be proof; unfortunately he’s not in a position to assess it.

The sourbread starter has not turned out well.  I tried making a couple of loaves from it.  It had a good flavor but it simply did not rise enough, even though I kneaded it thoroughly.  There is still some starter left over, so I will let it ripen a bit and then try it again.

Morning statistics – Shooting rampage in Canada – The sourdough starter in progress – Shakespeare on bread-making – The Government’s insatiable appetite for paper – Drive-in movies – Two teenaged bigots – The death of a firefighter’s child – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 7:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 2,419,724; # of deaths worldwide: 165,799; # of cases U.S.: 764,235; # of deaths U.S.: 40,565.  In Spain the case count is over 200,000 and the death count is nearly 21,000.  In Belgium the number of deaths is nearly 6000, or more than 1 in every 2000 per capita.  However, this may be due to how Belgium reports its deaths.  All deaths in nursing homes at this point are automatically attributed to the virus, whereas less than 10% of these are confirmed to be the result of COVID-19.  Since over 50% of the deaths occurred in nursing homes, this method of counting can only lead to skewed data.  It’s one thing to cover your bases and err on the side of caution in order to get the effects of the virus under control; it’s quite another to inflate data until it becomes meaningless.  The country is following a general lifting of lockdown measures just like its neighbors, which suggests that the virus is somewhat less severe there than the statistics would indicate.  Evidently the Belgians themselves don’t place much stock in their own data.

A shooting rampage has occurred in Nova Scotia, in a small town near Halifax.  The perpetrator disguised himself as a policeman and shot 16 people in their homes, apparently at random.  It is not known whether the virus was a contributing factor (if, for example, the lockdown caused him to lose his job). 

Our national debt now exceeds $24 trillion, which is greater than our gross national product – the first time this condition has occurred since WWII.

I’m making progress on the sourdough starter.  This morning the mixture acquired the sponge-like appearance described in the cookbook.  I have added milk and flour to double the amount (otherwise I would have to go through the process of creating a starter again the next time I wanted to bake bread) and am waiting for it to become spongy again.  Starters take a long time to make.  I had to pour out a glassful of milk and wait two days for it to sour; then, after adding the flour, I had to wait another two days for the mixture to become spongy.  The method for making bread will actually require the better part of another two days.  One has to use the starter to make a batter, let it rise overnight, and then complete the process the next day, which means adding more flour, kneading, shaping the loaves, and baking them.  Making a loaf of bread can be an intricate process, as Shakespeare noted in Troilus and Cressida:

PANDARUS:  He that will have a cake out of the wheat must tarry the grinding.
TROILUS:  Have I not tarried?
PANDARUS:  Ay, the grinding, but you must tarry the bolting.
TROILUS:  Have I not tarried?
PANDARUS:  Ay, the bolting, but you must tarry the leavening.
TROILUS:  Still have I tarried.
PANDARUS:  Ay, to the leavening but here’s yet in the word hereafter the kneading, 
the making of the cake, the heating the oven, and the baking.  Nay, you must stay
the cooling too, or ye may chance burn your lips.

(Incidentally, this discussion about bread-making is actually an extended metaphor for Troilus’ desire to bed Pandarus’ niece, and that last reference to burning one’s lips contains a suggestion of venereal disease.  Shakespeare never missed out on an opportunity to be bawdy.)

I had to fax some forms this morning and I was worried as to whether the UPS store would be open.  My concerns were groundless; it is considered an essential service and was operating as usual.  The personnel there were not even wearing face masks.

The forms that I sent were filled out on my mother’s behalf for the Veterans Administration to claim survivor benefits.  My father died this past November and I have been filling out forms for my mother since that time.  I initially had to supply fifty pages of documentation to the VA.  But that, apparently, was insufficient; since that time the accountants have been sending me one form after another to fill out, and when I do so and turn it in, they send me a request for an additional form.  This process has been going on for six months.  Their appetite for paper seems to be insatiable.  In my mother’s case it is less of an issue than for many others.  I have the energy to pursue the matter for her and, since I am retired, I have the leisure as well.  But I have to wonder what happens to the surviving spouses of military men and women who similarly elderly and infirm.  If they don’t get outside assistance, they will be unable to handle the paperwork themselves and consequently they will be deprived of the benefits that they should be receiving.

Drive-in movies may be making a comeback. It obviously is impractical to attempt to run movies in theatres as long as the measures prohibiting large gatherings remain in force.  But if the movies are to be distributed at all, it seems likely that drive-ins will be the answer.  Actually, the current conditions are merely accelerating an existing trend.  Movie theatres have had to face declines in attendance as it has become continually easier to view movies on workstations at home.  It is possible that drive-ins will be a temporary fix only and that once the stay-at-home restrictions are lifted people will revert to watching movies in theatres or at home again.  But it is not a certainty.  People might discover a type of communal enjoyment in watching films in this manner, and the demand for drive-ins could conceivably increase.  If so, it would one of the many unexpected consequences of the pandemic’s aftermath.

Jeffery Hume and Stephanie Freeman, two high school students from Georgia, posted an absolutely disgusting video denigrating African-Americans on TikTok, a video-sharing network.  It is truly remarkable in its way:  one does not expect to see such concentrated malevolence in youngsters not yet eighteen.  The video went “viral,” as the term goes, and this precious pair discovered belatedly that bad actions have bad consequences.  In addition to receiving some well-earned abuse from various viewers, they have been expelled from their high school without the prospect of graduating and getting their diplomas.  Hume, who is a junior wrestler, has been excluded from WWA4, the wrestling organization.  Freeman tried to do some damage control by posting some rather lame apologies, the sincerity of which has been questioned by numerous commentators.  I believe, however, that she truly is sorry for having made a fool of herself on such an enormous scale, for there is nothing as ridiculous as having been found out.  It seems that she has since contracted the coronavirus, giving her the dubious distinction of being the only person afflicted with the illness for whom I cannot feel the slightest sympathy.

Another sad story:  Skylar Herbert, the daughter of a first-responder firefighter, died of the virus at the age of five.  It is not clear how she contracted the virus.  Her father showed symptoms and was tested for COVID-19, but the results were inconclusive.  She herself has been kept at home for weeks and had no pre-existing conditions.  But whatever the reason, she fell ill, was tested, and shown to be positive.  In her case the virus developed into meningitis.  Viral meningitis, as opposed to bacterial meningitis, has a lower mortality rate; but of course a five-year old child does not have the level of resistance common to adults.  It is heart-breaking to look at the photos shown in the articles about her.  She appears to have been of a happy disposition – not merely smiling for the camera, but smiling as a result of a natural zest for life.  She showed promise of beauty as well.  The case occurred in one of the areas in Detroit – in the entire state for that matter – hardest hit by the virus.  In the meantime protestors have been besieging Lansing with cries to rescind the lockdown. 

Today’s statistics as of 10:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 2,481,287; # of deaths worldwide: 170,436; # of cases U.S.: 792,759; # of deaths U.S.: 42,514. 

Morning statistics – Pence at U.S. Air Force Academy – Nick Cordero – Potential under-reporting of the virus – Plans for re-opening in Texas – The fragile economy of New Jersey beaches – Potential for increase of tele-commuting continuing after lifting of restrictions – Social distancing somewhat more carefully observed – A beautiful spring season – A strange accident – Trump vs. the state governors – Tony Spell as schnorrer – Possibility of customers forced to rely totally on deliveries to obtain groceries – Kenya – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 2,349,516; # of deaths worldwide: 161,251; # of cases U.S.: 738,923; # of deaths U.S.: 39,015.  Spain’s number of cases is nearly 200,000 and its number of deaths is over 20,000 – quite significant for a country whose population is a little under 47,000,000.  Nonetheless it has reported that it has had the fewest number of new virus-related deaths this past day for over a month.  In Italy the lockdown will be lifted on May 3^rd.  But traveling to the country will not be feasible for at least a couple of months after that.  Since a significant amount of Italy’s economy depends on tourism, the country will have a difficulty recovery period.  The United Kingdom also has a high death rate; at 13.5%, it is the highest in Europe, excluding the microstates.  Turkey’s number of cases now exceeds Iran’s – assuming, of course, that Iran’s data can be trusted.  Officially, at any rate, Turkey now has the highest number of cases in the Mideast. 

Vice President Pence has given a commencement address to the cadets of the U. S. Air Force Academy.  The members of the audience were placed eight feet from one another and they all wore face masks.  Normally the ceremony is attended by 46,000 people, but on this occasion the amount of distance that the audience members had to maintain from each other meant that none of the cadets’ relatives could attend in order to conserve space in Falcon Stadium. 

My attitude towards Pence differs somewhat from my attitude towards Trump.  I do not care for his political stances and he is to some extent tainted by his association with the current administration, but the man himself certainly does not arouse the visceral reaction that Trump inspires.  He has played his role with some skill.  Trump has publicly quarreled with nearly every one of his Cabinet members and has purged numerous men and women from their positions.  Yet somehow Pence has managed to avoid the limelight amidst this perpetual Sturm und Drang for more than three years, continually contriving to keep at a distance from Trump’s embarrassing displays of ignorance and ill temper.  It is even possible that Trump has a friendly feeling towards him, to the extent that he is capable of liking anyone other than himself.  What arts has Pence employed to placate a man who lashes out at his associates with the unpredictability of a black mamba and who claws and spits at anyone who dares to criticize him like a catamount?  Mere sycophancy is not a sufficient explanation; plenty of people who have assiduously flattered Trump have nonetheless been toppled from their positions in a matter of months.  If I were seeking out a career as a lion-tamer in a circus, I would unhesitatingly go to Mike Pence to take lessons from him.

Nick Cordero, a Broadway star, has had his right leg amputated as a result of complications from the virus.  This is the first time I’ve heard of the virus having such an outcome.  He was originally diagnosed with pneumonia, a diagnosis that was corrected only belatedly.  By that time clots were forming in the leg.  Putting him on blood thinners to control the clots caused internal bleeding, so the physicians had to stop using the blood thinners and remove the leg.  This instance of the disease is particularly troubling because Cordero does not fit the usual profile of patients whose outcomes have turned out badly.  He is not elderly, being only 41 years old; he is not overweight, being quite lanky and lean in build, without an ounce of superfluous fat; and he was, until the virus struck him, a man in excellent physical condition. 

A study in the Bay Area of California suggests that the number of cases may be under-reported and may be as high as 85 times the amount currently supplied by statistics.  This news actually is somewhat encouraging; if the study‘s conclusions are correct, the mortality rate is much lower than the current statistics indicate.  And if less than 1 in 80 cases have discernible symptoms, the odds of succumbing to the virus after it is contracted are considerably reduced.  The study is far from conclusive and it does not explain, for instance, why the rate of contagion appears to be so much greater in some areas more than others.  To paraphrase Oscar Wilde’s Lady Bracknell slightly, “I do not know whether there is anything peculiarly exciting in the air of New York City, but the number of infections that go on seems to me considerably above the proper average that statistics have laid down for our guidance.”

Governor Abbott of Texas has appointed a team of medical and economic experts called the “Strike Force to Open Texas.”  Despite the name, the plan is actually rather cautious.  No businesses will open before April 27^th, and the restrictions will be lifted in stages.  Of course there are many critics, but just about any plan to reopen the businesses of any state would draw the same reaction.  There is considerable pressure to try to revitalize the state’s economy, which already has been greatly affected by the reduction in oil prices. 

The effects of the virus threaten to damage the economy of the Jersey Shore.   Many of the people who own or are renting second homes for the summer do not know when the beaches and the local businesses will be open again.  I have friends living in the Jersey Shore and I have visited the area in all seasons, so I have seen for myself the precarious state of its economy.  During the winter half of the businesses are closed.  They begin to reopen in April but it is only after Memorial Day that the full complement of stores and restaurants are operating.  Then after Labor Day the businesses begin to shut down again, and by November the economy of the area begins to hibernate again.  The loss of an entire beach season, or even of a significant portion of one, will be a serious blow to this scheme of finance.  My own projected visit to my friends at the beginning of May has had to be canceled; it is uncertain when Governor Murphy will lift the stay-at-home order for the state, and in any case the one for Virginia remains in effect until June 10^th.

Air quality has greatly improved as a result of the reduction of traffic on the roads.  It is possible that more and more businesses will encourage their employees to work from home whenever feasible, even after the restrictions are lifted.  I have seen an example for myself when I was working at Northrop Grumman.  For a long time tele-commuting, although theoretically available to employees on any given day, was in practice difficult for an employee to obtain from his or her supervisor.  But then came the winter of 2010/11, which had a record amount of snowfall (56 inches in the DC area).  The management thereupon realized that it was preferable for employees to work from home until the roads were adequately cleared – a process that always takes a long time in the DC metro area, its authorities laboring under the delusion that the city enjoys a Southern climate – and tele-commuting was positively encouraged.  After the snowfalls ceased and winter changed to spring, the management continued their policy of allowing employees to tele-commute on a less draconian basis.  I actually did not tele-commute much myself, since the nature of my work was such that it was easier to perform when I met with co-workers face to face, but whenever I felt the need to do so, permission to get it was much easier to obtain after that harsh winter than it was before. 

I did not wish to drive anywhere today, so I went on a ten-mile loop on local trails and sidewalks.  There were fewer people than I expected, especially since today is a Sunday.  People have become a good deal more observant about the injunctions concerning social distancing.  Groups of two or more would get into single file when approached from the opposite direction; dog owners reined in their pets and on occasion stepped aside altogether; bike riders were not riding in tandem.  All of which was a very agreeable surprise.

It continues to be one of the loveliest springs I can remember.  We have had a number of cool, wet days, which has prolonged the flowers’ period of bloom, and we are now moving into the time of year when the azaleas are coming out, blazing with color.  Washington does not have much in the way of heavy industry in proximity and air pollution has never been an issue to the extent of, say, Los Angeles or Cleveland.  Still, the air is notably clearer.  We will soon be approaching the period when the trillium are in full bloom, and then I do not believe that many people will pay much attention to the ATC’s pleas to stay off the Appalachian Trail:  the segment in the Linden area contains one of the greatest concentrations of trillium in the United States, and hikers are well-aware of the fact. 

The former mayor of Auburn, CA, who stepped down after criticizing Trump harshly (calling him a racist and comparing his followers to KKK members), has died in an airplane crash.  It was a private plane, of which he was the pilot.  It sounds like one of those cliché-ridden movies about a master scheme devised by a rich tycoon in which ordinary people are assassinated for getting in the way of its fruition – but surely that can’t be the case here.  So far, at least, no one has gone so far as to accuse Trump of murder.  I daresay that will come soon.

Trump is being accused by some of the governors for being reckless and unhinged for encouraging protestors to agitate against the various states’ stay-at-home laws.  Governor Inslee of the state of Washington has publicly told reporters that Trump is inciting insubordination and illegal activity.  It is difficult to disagree with him.  Instead of cooperating with the state governors and presenting a united front to combat the ravages of the virus, Trump is subverting the efforts of many governors to prohibit the habits that will cause the virus to spread even more.  If that doesn’t describe the man, he is indescribable. 

Pastor Tony Spell may not be very familiar with Yiddish, but he is the living embodiment of chutzpah.  Not content with defying the state’s stay-at-home order and organizing services with large numbers of people in attendance, he is asking that his followers donate their stimulus checks to the church.   Need I say that not a single one of his followers will raise a voice in protest at this unabashed display of greed?  It is difficult to feel sorry for them when they allow their pockets to be picked so readily.

There is talk now of banning customers from entering grocery stores and having them resort to curbside pickup and home delivery instead.  Indeed, I have been seeing many more delivery robots on the sidewalks than I have in the past, when I encountered them solely on the George Mason University campus.  It is understandable; several workers in grocery stores have contracted the virus, sometimes fatally.  But grocery stores operate on very narrow profit margins, and this additional expense will send many of them out of business altogether. 

Kenya has closed its borders.  Anyone in the country who has arrived from another country and has tested positive for the virus is placed in a quarantine center for 14 days.  The descriptions of the quarantine centers make them sound like prisons.  The toilets are filthy and the water from the taps is unreliable, because many of the inmates touch the taps with their hands.  If any occupant displays symptoms after the 14-day period of quarantine expires, he or she is forced to remain there for another 14 days.  As with the prisons of European nations in previous centuries, people have to pay for residing in them.  Most of the inmates are quite poor already, and this additional expense might easily propel some of them into ruin and destitution.

Today’s statistics as of 10:30 PM — # of cases worldwide: 2,406,905; # of deaths worldwide: 165,059; # of cases U.S.: 763,836; # of deaths U.S.: 40,555. 

Morning statistics – Difficulties in ensuring accurate data collection – Nations with female leaders

Today’s statistics as of 7:30 AM — # of cases worldwide: 2,265,757; # of deaths worldwide: 154,900; # of cases U.S.: 710,272; # of deaths U.S.: 37,175.  There is some deceleration in the rate of new cases and of new deaths.  China’s number of active cases is now listed at 1,058, which means that the low figure reported yesterday was false, and that in turn raises doubts about its statistics as a whole.  The active mortality rate worldwide is close to 7%.  The U.S. mortality rate is about 5.2%, which is better than average but still quite high.  On a local level, Virginia’s incidence count is nearly 7,500 and has had 231 deaths. 

Those who maintain that the reports of the virus are “fake news” – and I personally know a couple of these – argue that the number of deaths is over-reported and that many are due to other causes, along the lines of Bill O’Reilly’s argument quoted earlier.  As it happens, in my career I had had to generate numerous statistical reports and I know something about the difficulties of ensuring the accuracy of data collection.  My relative who died last month is a case in point.  He was over 70 years old and he had an underlying heart condition.  He fell ill, was diagnosed with the virus, was put on a ventilator when his breathing difficulties made it impossible for him to breathe on his own, was eventually removed from the ventilator as this symptom moderated, and had a fatal heart attack shortly afterwards.  Should his death be attributed to the virus or be listed as a heart attack?  One can make an argument either way, and the decision ultimately resides with the doctor who signed the death certificate.  The argument cuts both ways, however; an epidemiologist might argue that many deaths officially attributed to heart failure or asthma should in fact be listed as deaths caused by the virus. 

Whether the numbers of cases and of deaths from the coronavirus are over-reported or under-reported, however, is of secondary importance to a hospital administrator or the director of a funeral home.  One statistic, at least, is beyond dispute – the increase in the number of people requiring treatment in urgent care, which is straining our hospitals to the breaking point, and the larger number of deceased people requiring burial or cremation, which is overwhelming the funeral homes.  New York City alone has had over 13,000 deaths above the median.  Whether they were a direct result of the virus or whether the virus was merely a proximate cause makes little difference to the workers interring or cremating the bodies. 

It has been noted that seven of the nations that have taken the virus seriously and adopted strenuous measures from the beginning – Finland, Norway, Denmark, Germany, Iceland, New Zealand, and Taiwan – have women leaders and this circumstance has been used to hint that women are better qualified as heads of state.  I don’t wish to disparage these leaders, whose policies during this pandemic have displayed a contrast to the ones deployed by our own leader that is rather humiliating for our country; but I should note that several other countries with male leaders – Vietnam and Malaysia come to mind – have also responded fairly effectively.  And if we look back a little in time, we find many women leaders who could be just as irresponsible and power-hungry as their male counterparts.  Empress Cixi, anyone?

Morning statistics – Possibility of under-reporting in Iran – Potential damage inflicted upon African nations – Absentee ballot – Soundness of electoral system on a local level – Florida beaches – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 2,205,976; # of deaths worldwide: 148,634; # of cases U.S.: 678,210; # of deaths U.S.: 34,641.  China’s number of active cases is now listed at 116, but that seems too good to be true.  One reason appears to be that China has revised its death count by over 1,000 and total number of cases by 325.  But it does appear strange that so few new cases have occurred.  It has reported 26 new cases and no deaths in the past 24 hours.  Spain’s case incidence rate is now very close to 0.4%.  At this point the nations with the highest incidence rates (excluding the microstates) are, in decreasing order, Spain, Switzerland, Belgium, Italy, Ireland, France, U.S., Portugal, the Netherlands, and Germany.  The ones with the highest mortality rates are Belgium, Spain, Italy, France, U.K., the Netherlands, Switzerland, Sweden, U.S., and Ireland.  Belgium’s high mortality rate may be due to the fact that testing there has been less rigorous than in Germany or South Korea.  South Korea is generally regarded as having contained the virus within its borders.  Its statistics are a great deal more reliable than China’s.  Iran is not among the top ten on either list, so it just possibly may be doing a better job of containing the virus than the news reports would lead one to expect.  On the other hand, it may be fudging its data.  The latter alternative is the more likely explanation.  One video has emerged showing a morgue crammed with bodies, some of which have been waiting 5-6 days for burial – which is startling if true, because Sharia law requires corpses to be buried soon after expiration.  Also, there are some photographs of trenches being dug to accommodate the victims – a practice that is almost unheard of in that country.  The official death count is close to 5,000 but the actual count may be at least three times as much. 

There is some concern about the effect that the virus will have on African nations if it expands there the way it has in Europe.  About one-third of the people on the continent are living at the poverty level.  Preventative measures, such as shutting down businesses, that have resulted in mere economic hardship in Europe and the U.S. could lead to starvation for many of them. 

I applied for an absentee ballot and received the appropriate forms some days ago.  This morning I went over the websites for the various candidates so that I could make an informed choice.  Government on a local level, as opposed to the national one, appears to be working smoothly.  All of them looked good to me.  Instead of agonizing over which candidate was the lesser evil (which has been my experience in just about every national election that I can remember), I was actually pondering which of the men and women running for the position stood out among their competitors.  Not that there was a great deal of competition to ponder:  two candidates for mayor, seven candidates for the six positions of the City Council, and six candidates for the five positions of the School Board.  But it was heartening to get an impression of honest people striving to do their best for the city.  The positions that they are running for are not in the least lucrative and in consequence the candidates have all have had careers that are not exclusively political – unlike our mandarins in Congress.  However, I will defer submitting my ballot for a few days.  Governor Northam has requested that the election be delayed until November and if this request is approved, all submitted absentee ballots will have to be discarded.  The question will be resolved on April 22^nd, so I will wait until then.

Florida has opened its beaches in Jacksonville and many have been flocking there.  Only exercise such as walking and swimming are permitted, while sunbathing, sitting in chairs, or resting on towels are not – theoretically.  I don’t see how that is going to be enforceable. 

Today’s statistics as of 11:30 PM — # of cases worldwide: 2,250,757; # of deaths worldwide: 154,262; # of cases U.S.: 710,021; # of deaths U.S.: 37,158. 

Afternoon statistics – Status of Germany – Grocery shopping during the “window” for seniors – Yeast unavailable – A sourdough starter – Hiking on the Pimmit Run Trail – Personal disqualifications for Orthodox Judaism – The Baal Shem Tov contrasted with his followers – Justin Trudeau – Losses among health care workers – Work on the Metro – The works of Thomas Mann and prevalence of illness in his fiction – Unhealthiness of American lifestyles – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 12:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 2,118,741; # of deaths worldwide: 141,913; # of cases U.S.: 652,996; # of deaths U.S.: 33,387.  The incidence of occurrence in the U.S. is now 0.2% but in Spain it is almost twice as much. In Belgium the incidence rate is over 0.3% — and, surprisingly, in Switzerland as well. 

Germany is planning to reopen gradually.  Some small businesses will be allowed to operate after April 20^th; schools will open on May 4^th.  But large gatherings are prohibited until the end of August, including religious gatherings.  Angela Merkel voluntarily went into quarantine after coming in contact with a physician who tested positive for the virus, but she ultimately tested negative and returned to her office earlier this month.

Today I went to Safeway during the “window” of time allotted to seniors.  The window is 7:00 – 9:00 AM, Tuesdays and Thursdays.  It evidently is done by the honor system:  no one was checking customers’ ages as people entered the store.  However, it seems to be working; apart from the cashiers, there were no young people to be seen.  I was able to find most of the items on my list, which means that I can avoid the stores for the next three days or so.  One of the items I could not find was yeast, which has virtually vanished off of the shelves of the stores all over the area.  I am now trying to make a sourdough starter on my own.

I went out on the Potomac Heritage Trail near Turkey Run, but had to give it up eventually.  I should have known better; that part of the PHT is best attempted in summer or winter, when the river’s water levels are lower.  In the spring and autumn portions of the trail, especially in that area, tend to get submerged.  After a couple of miles I returned to my car and went to the Pimmit Run Trail, starting at the Marie Leven Preserve and doing a there-and-back to the junction with the PHT.  To my surprise I encountered only one other person on the trail.  It was a chilly day, to be sure, and the section of the Pimmit Run Trail that I covered can be quite a scramble in places – but still, I was surprised to see such a paucity of hikers when so many of the other trails are swarming with them.  Wildlife is becoming bolder.  I saw a fox walking along the bank of the river opposite to mine.  It did not appear overly concerned by my presence, whereas normally foxes run away whenever they spot a human.  This one merely walked by without quickening its pace. The parking area at the Marie Leven Preserve was closed, of course, but there are no restrictions on the residual streets nearby.  Driving back and forth to the trailheads has become very pleasant now that traffic has lightened so much. 

It may be noticed that I mention hiking a good deal in the course of these notes, and it is true that I like to be on the trails as often as possible.  I would not have had much success as an Orthodox Jew.  I take great offence in particular at the following pronouncement: “One who, while walking by the way of reviewing his studies, interrupts his study and says ‘How beautiful is that tree, how beautiful is that field,’ it is as if he is deserving of death” – the silliest statement in the entire Talmud, strong though the competition is.  However, I might have gotten along fairly well with the Baal Shem Tov.  He, at least, enjoyed being out of doors.  As a child he was continually roaming in the woods and the fields, despite the attempts of his elders to restrain him; he savored the magnificent scenery of the Carpathian Mountains during the seven years that he lived in that region (which he later referred to as the happiest period of his life); and one of his parables talks of a naïve boy who experiences religious fervor in a forest rather than in a synagogue.  I suppose all religious movements diverge from the precepts of their founders to some extent, but I believe that he in particular would be rather dismayed at the sight of his professed followers studying Talmudic commentaries to the exclusion of every single other activity and squandering their intellectual energy in debates about minor points of religious etiquette.  However, everyone must choose for himself in such matters.

Since I’ve been so critical of Donald Trump these past several days, it is only fair to note the idiosyncrasies of other national leaders – of the one for our neighbor to the North, for example.  Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, after ordering Canadians to avoid visiting vacation cottages and family reunions as part of the nation’s stay-at-home order (with people being stopped by the police and fined for crossing provincial borders), blithely took a jaunt with his family to Harrington Lake for the Easter weekend.  He seems willing to evade laws that he has laid down for everyone else.  Perhaps he and Donald Trump should meet to exchange pointers with each other on how best to achieve this goal.

We’ve had losses of health care professionals whom we can ill afford to spare.  Ronald Verrier, initially from Haiti, was a surgeon in the Bronx who worked day after day with an overwhelming number of patients as the virus ravaged New York City.  He developed symptoms in early April and had to take to his bed, but he continued to call in to meetings with his colleagues from his home during the last week of his life until April 7^th, the day before he died.  Vianna Thompson was a nurse in Reno, NV, who treated a colleague who had contracted the virus, came down with it herself, and died four days later.  Daisy Doronilla, a nurse for the Hudson County jail in New Jersey, developed a cough in mid-March, was hospitalized on March 21^st, put on a ventilator on March 22^nd, and died on April 5^th.  Jeff Baumbach, a nurse at a hospital in Stockton, CA, had worked for 28 years with patients suffering from infectious diseases without catching as much as a cold, but in March he developed symptoms, was put on a ventilator on March 26^th, and died on March 31^st.  Technically speaking his death was listed as pneumonia, but the virus undoubtedly precipitated matters, since his health up to time of his final illness had been impeccable.  Alvin Simmons, a cleaner for a hospital in Rochester, NY, displayed symptoms on March 11^th, was hospitalized on March 13^th, and died on March 17^th.  This death is especially worrisome, because it was the first recorded case at the hospital; up to this point, there had been no reason to suspect that any part of the facility was harboring the virus.  Debbie Accad, a nursing coordinator at a hospital in Detroit, complained of feeling ill on March 16^th, was hospitalized on March 20^th, and died on March 30^th.  In all of these cases the speed with which the illness progressed is the most alarming factor.  Verrier, for instance, was reported as being confident and “in good spirits” on April 7^th, but died on the following day. 

Because the ridership of the Metro had decreased so substantially, construction on the Silver Line can be moved ahead of schedule.  It is much easier to shut down lines temporarily.  Initially a complete shutdown was proposed for 15-16 weeks, but it appears that this may be reduced to as little as three weeks.

It is a little curious going over some of the works of Thomas Mann under these circumstances.  Illness is continually recurring.  The Magic Mountain, of course, takes place in a sanatorium, and the protagonist of Death in Venice dies in the middle of cholera epidemic, so it is not surprising that none of the characters in these two works are prime specimens.  But still – it is a bit strange.  In The Magic Mountain, it’s assumed as a matter of course that all visitors, even if they are not in the least tubercular, will need an adjustment period to acclimatize to the altitude of Davos – which is less than that of Denver.  Hans Castorp is orphaned at the age of seven and James Tienappel, one of his few living relatives, is not particularly robust.  In Buddenbrooks hardly anyone is healthy.  Johann gets rheumatic in his early forties.  Thomas has a hemorrhage in his twenties and dies of a stroke at the age of forty-eight.  Klara dies of tuberculosis before she is thirty.  Christian dwells on his cramps and fevers and internal pains at wearisome length, but they are genuine ailments, not the fancies of a hypochondriac (although he certainly is one).  Antonie has digestive issues.  Her second child dies at birth.  Johann the younger succumbs to typhoid when he is in his teens.  Johannes Friedemann (“Little Herr Friedemann”) is another early orphan, his father dying in Johannes’ infancy and his mother following before he turns twenty-one.  Tonio Kröger also loses his father at an early age although his mother, most unaccountably, appears to be still living when he reaches adulthood.  Frau Cornelius (“Disorder and Early Sorrow”) is worn down and chronically fatigued, and she ought to be staying at a spa for a “cure,” except that the family’s precarious financial situation as a result of the runaway inflation makes this course of action impossible – this detail has no bearing on the plot and is merely thrown in casually.  Adrian Leverkühn, in Doctor Faustus, certainly self-destructs by contracting syphilis as a result of his dissipations; but his librettist Rüdiger Schildknapp, despite his imposing physical presence, is actually rather frail, with a tendency to be tubercular, and Adrian’s nephew Nepomuk dies in childhood from meningitis.  There simply is no getting away from disease in his writings.  Since Mann is considered to be one of the great German realistic writers, it leads me to wonder . . .

. . .  can it be?  .  . .

. . . is it possible? . . .

. . . that the Germans of that time, far from being a Herrenvolk, were actually a rather sickly and suffering people?

Today, of course, the boot is on the other foot.  The lifestyle of the average American is much less healthy than that of the average German.  We eat too much and our habits are too sedentary.  The number of obese people among our population, and of morbidly obese in particular, is a matter of wonder to foreign visitors, and our life expectancy is less than that of several European nations, partly on account of the high incidence of heart disease.  When I visited Garmisch-Partenkirchen some years ago, I encountered several people in their seventies and beyond who took to the Alpine trails as a matter of course.  No doubt they were moving more slowly than at the rate they had possessed in their youth, but it never would have occurred to them to remain inactive.  Americans in general disdain to walk, and they pay for this preference in their old age, with bent spines, inflexible knees, and fragile hips.  I see plenty of examples at the assisted-living facility where my mother lives, in some cases among people whose age is not much greater than my own.

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 2,182,058; # of deaths worldwide: 145,516; # of cases U.S.: 677,570; # of deaths U.S.: 34,617.  Our case incidence rate now exceeds 0.2%. 

Morning statistics – Trump vs. the WHO – Africans in China – Another visit to my mother’s facility – More trail closures – Protestors at Lansing, MI – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 7:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 2,014,554; # of deaths worldwide: 127,598; # of cases U.S.: 614,246; # of deaths U.S.: 26,064.  Outside of various microstates whose populations are so small that even a low number of cases can skew statistics (Iceland, Luxembourg, Andorra) the country with the greatest amount of cases with respect to the population is Spain.  At this point nearly 0.4% have come down with the disease.  For the U.S. the incidence rate is 0.186%, but it is rising steadily. 

Trump has cut off American funding to the World Health Organization (WHO), stating that it placed political correctness over lifesaving measures.   There is some truth to this.  Initially China downplayed the outbreak of the virus in Wuhan, saying that everything was under control and that there was no evidence that it could be communicated from person to person.  It even detained Dr. Li Wenliang, who warned his colleagues about the outbreak in December, 2019, and “admonished” him, a process that could have had far-ranging adverse effects both for him and his family, had he not evaded their clutches by contracting the virus from a patient and dying in February.  The WHO simply repeated China’s false reassurances without question, even though senior WHO officials suspected at the onset that the virus was more serious than initial reports would have led laymen to believe.  WHO also protested against Trump’s initial move to impose travel restrictions of Americans to China – one of the few preventative measures he deigned to implement.  One WHO official even publicly cut off an interview with a reporter when she implied that Taiwan was independent of China.  There is no question that the WHO fell down badly in this matter, and that it is much too subservient to China and to Third World nations in general.

Still – what else have we got?  Imperfect as the WHO may be, there is no alternative organization.  Cutting off funds in the midst of a global pandemic will simply make a bad situation even worse.

Speaking of China, a MacDonald’s in that nation recently achieved an unwelcome spotlight.  In Guangzhou, a large industrial city, its MacDonald’s instituted a policy of banning blacks from entering.  One wouldn’t have thought that there were a sufficient number of blacks to bother enforcing such a policy, no matter how racially biased the Chinese may be; but in fact there are over 300,000 Africans residing in the city.  There have been many tensions between these newcomers and the locals, and naturally the threat of the virus has exacerbated them.

I went to see my mother again today, but only for a few minutes, mainly to pick up mail that’s accumulated since my last visit.  I did not stay long; there is general agreement that under the circumstances brief visits are the best.  If the virus gets loose in an assisted living facility such of the one my mother occupies, it would do as much damage as a spark of fire cast upon a field of parched wheat.

There were more trail closures today.  Regional parks such as Burke Lake and Occoquan Regional had their entrances closed; there is a small parking lot on Rte. 123 from which it is possible to enter the park on foot, but that was closed off too.  I settled for going to Occoquan itself; it’s a pretty little town and I haven’t seen it for a while.  There were excellent views from the footbridge over the Occoquan River.  Gulls and loons were flying and swimming in great numbers.  But at this point it seems doubtful that anyone will pay much attention to the Appalachian Trail Conservancy’s pleas to stay off of the AT; the alternatives are drying up.

Along these lines, the Vigorous Hikers will no longer be sending out Email announcements to group members about the hikes; we will have to look them up on the website and then contact the hike leader if we want to join. 

Protestors stormed Lansing today calling for easing up on the stay-at-home order in Michigan.  Many people in Michigan go south for the winter and this year they have had some difficulty in attempting to return to their homes during the spring.  And of course small businesses have been feeling the pinch for weeks.  The governor is trying to cope with the situation as diplomatically as possible; she realizes that it’s impossible to arrest all of the protestors – there simply are too many of them (at least 3,000 in Lansing alone).  In her place I would be pointing out that the more relaxed attitude of Sweden hasn’t done much good; its mortality rate is significantly worse than that of the remainder of the Scandinavian countries.

Today’s statistics as of 10:30 PM — # of cases worldwide: 2,083,304; # of deaths worldwide: 134,615; # of cases U.S.: 644,089; # of deaths U.S.: 28,529.  New cases are still occurring in China, but the number of active cases is now barely over 1,100.  Spain, Italy, France, and Belgium have the highest mortality rates, with the U.K. and the Netherlands trailing not far behind. 

Morning statistics – Hiking among the wildflowers – Decreasing number of trails available – Grocery shopping – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 6:30 AM — # of cases worldwide: 1,929,922; # of deaths worldwide: 120,449; # of cases U.S.: 582,594; # of deaths U.S.: 23,649.  The number of active cases in China has gone down to 1,170.  Italy has had over 161,000 cases, more than 2.5 in every 1000 of its population.  And in Spain the count is nearly 3.7 in every 1000 of its population.  The virus is expanding in the Mideast; both Iran and Turkey have case counts approaching those of China.  In Sweden the number of cases has exceeded that of South Korea, although the virus has been infecting South Korea over a considerably longer period of time.  Its death toll is higher than those of its neighbors, which have comparable population sizes.  Many scientists in Sweden are denouncing the country’s rather relaxed policy towards gatherings of several people.  Similarly, both Chile and Peru have case counts that have exceeded Japan’s. 

I was on the AT again with the Vigorous Hikers, a there-and-back from Rte. 55 to Rte. 522.  The total was 16 miles, with 2800 feet of elevation gain.  We all started at different times and went at different paces, so our social contact was minimal.  Also, we were on a relatively little-used portion of the trail, or so we thought.  For most of the time we encountered nobody except an elderly couple coming from Rte. 522.  On the way back, though, I ran across a dozen people (not all in one group, but in several smaller ones) coming from Rte. 55 – but only within the last two miles.  The remainder of the trail had been deserted.  We started very early, which may have something to do with it.  The day was almost ideal:  temperatures mainly in the 50s and fairly sunny, with little wind.  I thought that the trail would be muddy on account of the rain from the day before, but there were only a few wet patches.  Many wildflowers were in full bloom:  bloodroot, blue violets, yellow violets, spring beauties, starry chickweed, wild geranium. Butterflies have become less frequent in recent years, so I was heartened to see a few tiger swallowtails on this outing.  Birds were caroling everywhere.  I completed the hike in a little under 4 hours and 40 minutes, or close to 3.5 MPH – not too bad for someone in his mid-sixties.

It’s getting to be a challenge to find trails that are open.  All of Shenandoah National Park is closed.  Even the Dickey Ridge Trail, whose trailhead is outside of the park gates, is off-limits.  All of the park visitor centers are of course closed, although some parks, such as Rock Creek, are still available for use. 

Because we started so early and the hike was a relatively short distance away from my home (about a 45-minute drive), I had time to do some grocery shopping after I returned.  I brought my mask, and also I was handed a pair of plastic gloves before I entered the store.  It makes sense – with all of the fresh produce, quite a number of people handle it for inspection before choosing the fruit or vegetable that they want to purchase.  When I select an apple, for instance, I automatically hold it up and inspect it all over to verify whether or not it has any bruises or soft spots, and I assume that other shoppers do the same. 

Today’s statistics as of 11:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 1,981,239; # of deaths worldwide: 126,557; # of cases U.S.: 608,679; # of deaths U.S.: 25,992.  Today was a setback; the number of new deaths is higher than that of yesterday.

Morning statistics – Potential meat shortages – Trump puzzled at failure of anti-biotics to counter-effect a virus – Gerald Glenn – Trump vs. Fauci – A dangerous precedent – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 7:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 1,859,011; # of deaths worldwide: 114,979; # of cases U.S.: 557,590; # of deaths U.S.: 22,023.

One of the largest pork processing plants in the country has been shut down because more than two hundred of its employees have fallen ill.  This episode will have a significant impact on our meat supply.  Even though I don’t eat much pork myself, it will affect me and others like me; if the supply of pork goes down, people will be turning to other meats and the surge in demand will cause shortages of these as well.  Fortunately I have several vegetarian dishes in my repertoire.

Trump’s displays of ineptitude continue to amaze me and, in all probability, the world at large.  Recently he made a speech describing COVID-19 as a “brilliant enemy” – as if it were a hostile nation with whom we are at war – and lamented that it is impervious to anti-biotics.  Of course, since it is a virus, anti-biotics will not be of much use in treating it, but he doesn’t appear to be aware of that.  And people made fun of Gerald Ford and George W. Bush for their malapropisms!  They are geniuses in comparison with this man.

Bishop Gerald Glenn conducted church services in defiance of the restriction of gatherings of more than ten people, saying that “people are healed” at his church and that he provided an essential service because “I am a preacher – I talk to God!”  He held his last service on March 22^nd, contracted the virus shortly afterwards, and died a week after it was diagnosed.  Had he torn himself away from his Biblical studies to have a glimpse at the classics, he would have realized that hubris is inevitably followed by nemesis.

The blunders of Trump are reaping what they have sown.  A member of the crew of the USS Theodore Roosevelt ship has died of the virus.  Trump has publicly quarreled with Dr. Fauci and is now trying to back-pedal and to pretend that he has no wish to deprive Fauci of his post.  I suppose that even he realizes the amount of outrage that would result if he engineered firing Fauci (he cannot do so directly, but he could request the Health and Human Services director to do so – just as he technically is not directly responsible for the firing of Captain Brett Crozier but made use of Thomas Modly as his catspaw). 

I’ve had speculations about life in future even after the virus recedes.  These stay-at-home orders are necessary, and yet – it is a little frightening to realize the degree our government can meddle with our daily lives.  Is it possible that an enterprising demagogue will take advantage of a future crisis of similar magnitude to control our movements and nudge the direction of our country into a police state?  Something similar, it may be remembered, happened in Germany less than a century ago.

Today’s statistics as of 10:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 1,918,855; # of deaths worldwide: 119,588; # of cases U.S.: 581,679; # of deaths U.S.: 23,604.  It does appear that the number of new cases and of deaths is decelerating, but we are a long way from reaching negative deceleration as yet.

Morning statistics – State of emergency for fifty states – Easter’s ambiguous reputation – Why social distancing guidelines are in effect – Lou Dobbs – Decreased pollution – Death of an ER doctor – A lively party in California – Fauci and Birx working under difficulties – Donald Trump’s personal insecurities – How these make him a failed leader – Contrast between Trump and Queen Elizabeth II – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 1,789,985; # of deaths worldwide: 109,691; # of cases U.S.: 530,006; # of deaths U.S.: 20,608.  Many new cases, but on the bright side the increase in the number of deaths since last night is lower than before.

There is now a state of emergency declared for all fifty states at once.  It is the first time in history that this has happened. 

Today is Easter Sunday.  I’m in two minds about this holiday.  Theoretically the liturgies recited at the services should be admonishing the congregations not to allow themselves to have their passions whipped up by unscrupulous demagogues to the point of their participating in lynching and judicial murder.  But in practice it has not worked out that way.  On the contrary, the services have often been used to kindle the most vicious of hatreds and to foment the same kind of mob violence that played such a prominent role in the execution of Christ.  And it is still going on today, albeit to a lesser degree than in earlier epochs and repudiated by a handful of churches here and there.  So it is not surprising that Jews in general tend to regard this holiday with a degree of suspicion.  In fact,

We withstood Christ then? be mindful how 
At least we withstand Barabbas now!        

(Robert Browning, “Holy Cross Day”)

On the other hand, Easter is the source of many parades and gatherings and feasts and numerous other events in which people are made easily and carelessly merry and that are a source of delight to children in particular.  People don their new spring outfits and families get together; in this country the gambolings of the Easter bunny are eagerly looked forward to by thousands of children, and there is generally a lot of festivity and food and laughter.   Sadly, all of these must be foregone for now.  Believers among Christians have been harder hit than believers among Jews this year.  While there are certainly some special services at the synagogue for Passover, the focal point of the holiday is the seder, which is celebrated at home.  To be sure, the big family gatherings that are the usual feature at this time of year had to be given up, but at any rate individual households could celebrate the ceremony.  Easter, however, is emphatically a more communal affair. 

LF, daughter of a hiker friend and with whom I have hiked myself on occasion, is a prominent surgeon.  She has posted a Facebook entry urging that the social distancing regulations in effect are not merely for self-protection but for the protection of others.  I have not entirely lost sight of that.  It is a hardship to avoid people, especially the people I know well, but I have no wish to endanger them by any carelessness on my part.  I am not unduly worried about contracting the virus myself, although naturally I would prefer for it to pass me by.  I am quite healthy and have none of the underlying conditions that can make the disease so deadly.  Even so, no one seems to know with certainty what the after-effects will be.  Still, the main issue in my case is not to infect others; it is, as I know, perfectly possible to have the disease without being aware of it for two weeks or more.  Many have infected others while they were still asymptomatic.  This isolation has been difficult in many ways, but it must be endured if the epidemic is to be contained at all.

Lou Dobbs, a Fox News presenter who has steadily maintained that the virus is a hoax overblown by the media, has tested positive for the virus and has been in self-quarantine for three weeks.

The inhabitants of heavily polluted cities such as Beijing, Sao Paolo, Mumbai, etc., are seeing clean air for the first time in decades.  I remember visiting Beijing in 2000, where for the first time in my life I saw a brown sky.  Commentators are reporting that the air is now quite clear and the sky has returned to its natural color.  The implication is that a trifling pandemic or so does wonders for a city’s appearance.  I can foresee the time when dedicated environmentalists will be sighing for the good old days when the virus was at its height.

New York City has over 6,000 deaths, and it is unclear why its mortality rate is so much higher than that of the rest of the country.  Population density has something to do with it, but the virus has ravaged Queens more thoroughly than Manhattan, even though Manhattan is the more densely populated borough of the two.  New York City has provided us with the first casualty among American ER doctors:  Frank Gabrin, who on account of the general shortage in masks was forced to use the same mask for several shifts until it provided virtually no protection.  This episode, as we know from a message texted to a friend expressing concern about the lack of medical supplies, occurred on March 19^th.  He displayed symptoms of the disease on March 26^th, was confined to his bed on March 29^th, and died on March 30^th.  His last moments were especially traumatic; he woke up in the morning gasping for air; his anxious spouse immediately called 911 and a close friend for help; by the time they arrived he had already passed away in his spouse’s arms.  Arnold Vargas, the spouse, also contracted the disease but eventually recovered.  They had been married for only seven months.

A very large party of about 400 people was held in California in violation of the stay-at-home order, and sure enough it came to grief, although not in the way that one might have expected.  The party was as “lively” as the one provided by Judge Brack in Ibsen’s Hedda Gabler and it ended in the same way – with gunfire.  Six people were shot, none of them with life-threatening injuries.  No arrests have been made as yet, but no one is cooperating with the authorities, not even the victims. 

Dr. Fauci says that the virus appears to be slowing down and that the country could open again to some extent next month.  Fauci also confirmed that Trump initially pushed back when recommendations came earlier in the year to shut down all but the essential businesses.  So this report about a potential return to normalcy in May could very well be a sop flung to Trump to keep him quiet.

I feel sorry for Dr. Fauci and also for Deborah Birx, Coronavirus Response Coordinator for the Trump Administration’s White House Coronavirus Task Force.  They are obviously doing all that they can to help the nation through this crisis, but the need to stoke Trump’s ego continually must be a great distraction.

I have said much about the President, but I should clarify my position a little.  I am not trying to demonize him.  He is not a monster in the style of Hitler or Stalin or Mao Zedong.  He would not consign hundreds of thousands of people to the gulag or round them up to be assassinated in concentration camps.  He does have some redeeming qualities.  While it is true that he treated his first two wives abominably, he appears to have a genuine attachment to Melania.  He has donated his salary as President to the treasury.  Supporters of Trump – and there are still many of these – say that people in the country should rally behind him in order to fight the inroads of the pandemic effectively; and they are right to an extent.  If Trump were to show any degree of true leadership, most people would be glad to march under his banner.

But that is what he consistently refuses to do.  At every turn, his insatiable craving for praise and approval obtrudes, perpetually hampering the efforts of everyone who is trying to do something useful.  One has only to compare his behavior to that of Queen Elizabeth II.  Queen Elizabeth, at the age of 93, provided an impressive speech to bolster the spirits of the nation.  In the course of that speech she referred to the first speech she made in 1940, not for the purposes of self-aggrandizement, but to remind the Britons of a time when a crisis of similar import threatened the well-being of the country and of the sturdy fortitude they displayed in responding to it.  The emphasis was on her countrymen at large, not on herself.  And I have no doubt that a majority of Britons will be inspirited by this example and that her efforts will play a role in inspiring others to imitate the courage shown by their parents or grandparents eighty years earlier.

Who can doubt that if Trump were to give such an address that the emphasis would be on what he alone has done and that no mention would be made of the labors of anyone else? or that he shuts his ears to anything that he does not wish to hear and penalizes anyone whose views do not echo his own?  If I had the misfortune to be working in a capacity that involved coming into physical contact with him, I would strive to attract as little notice as possible, as in Griboyedov’s Woe from Wit:  “God spare us from the worst of woes, the master’s wrath, the master’s love.”  I have no doubt that such an attitude has infiltrated many Government departments as a result of his influence; it is clear that they are wilting after more than three years of capricious and arbitrary rule.

Today’s statistics as of 10:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 1,846,963; # of deaths worldwide: 114,101; # of cases U.S.: 555,398; # of deaths U.S.: 22,023.

Morning statistics – Anak Krakatau, child of Krakatoa – Fortuitous discovery of a dust mask – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 1,709,014; # of deaths worldwide: 103,536; # of cases U.S.: 501,613; # of deaths U.S.: 18,277.  Nearly 100,000 new cases in 24 hours, and about 35,000 of these in the U.S.

Krakatoa has been erupting.  Not, thankfully, on the scale with which it erupted in 1883, causing the “year without a summer,” but erupting nonetheless.  Actually, the original volcano was literally blown away in the 1883 eruption and the name of the peak that is now active is “Anak Krakatau,” and was formed from lava from subsequent eruptions – “anak” means “child” in Indonesian, the lingua franca of the archipelago.  The fumes and ash have gone 1,640 feet into the air, but unlike a similar eruption two years ago, it does not appear forceful enough to create a deadly tsunami.  (The one in 2018 killed over 400 people.) 

Today I found a dust mask used and left behind by some workers who had done some repairs in the laundry room several years ago.  I washed it and then wore it when I went out, and I am bound to say it works better than my home-made mask.  It’s much less cumbersome and covers my nostrils and mouth more effectively.  I will use this mask primarily, and use the home-made masks as backups.

Today’s statistics as of 11:30 PM — # of cases worldwide: 1,777,517; # of deaths worldwide: 108,862; # of cases U.S.: 529,887; # of deaths U.S.: 20,604.  Our death toll has now surpassed that of Italy, which up to this point has been the nation with the greatest number of deaths.  Its death toll is 19,468.  However, its mortality rate is still considerably higher.  The number of deaths from the virus in this country is now about 35% of the annual number of deaths from influenza.   But of course the mortality rate is much greater, so as the number of cases continues to expand the number of deaths will also.  I mention this because until recently it was still possible to see articles downgrading the severity of the epidemic by pointing out how many people we lose to other diseases every year and to influenza in particular.  The ostrich instinct is very strong among certain political partisans, but I believe matters have come at this point to be so obvious that even the most obstinate can no longer ignore the severity of the disease.

Morning statistics – High mortality rate of the U.K. – Deterioration of standard of public debate – Groups of people at higher risk – Potter’s Field – Boris Johnson – Ralph Northam – More developments on the case of the USS Roosevelt – Good Friday – Trump cries “Encore” for the crucifixion – A drug for reducing the impact of a disabling childhood disease approved by the FDA – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 8:30 AM — # of cases worldwide: 1,611,981; # of deaths worldwide: 96,783; # of cases U.S.: 466,299; # of deaths U.S.: 16,686.  More than 16,000 new cases and more than 1,000 deaths in the space of less than 12 hours.  There are bright spots here and there.  The rate of the death toll in Spain is going down.  In New York the increase of newly hospitalized patients in New York is now 1%, considerably lower than before.  Nearly a quarter of the people who contracted the virus have since recovered.

Why is the mortality rate in the United Kingdom so high?  It is over 12% — worse than that of Spain and comparable with that of Italy. I can’t believe that its medical system is worse than either of those two countries, or that our own is so much better than theirs.  (Our own rate is currently about 3.5%.) It may be that their testing is more extensive and that they have diagnosed the number of people afflicted by the disease more effectively.  We know that many people are going about who have the disease but who have not been diagnosed.  That’s one reason the virus is spreading so quickly.  The total actual number of cases in any country is simply not known.  Also, many of the people who have contracted the virus are not yet recovered or dead, so that the mortality rate may go up for any single country within any projected time.  I’m certain that it will go up in the U.S.  Still, all of these factors do not quite explain why the figures in the U.K. are not closer to those of Switzerland or Germany.

Bill O’Reilly has said that those who died of the virus “were on their last legs anyway,” adding that “I don’t want to sound callous about that.” 

This is a good example of how much the quality of public debate has deteriorated in our nation.  Party politics were every bit as partisan and emotionally charged when I was growing up as they are now, but the tone of public discourse was notably more civil and – to use an old-fashioned word – even gentlemanly, at least at times.  During the course of the Vietnam War people from both parties became much more prone to unbridled abuse of one another and any code of manners that existed became completely unraveled.  At this point casual brutalities such as O’Reilly’s comments have become commonplace.  As to the gist of his argument – it certainly is true that many of the deaths occurred among people who had other issues, such as obesity, diabetes, etc., but it is also true that many others were quite healthy before fatally contracting the virus.  In every epidemic those who are less healthy to begin with are at greater risk than those who are more robust, but that does not make the epidemic any the less injurious. 

Potter’s Field on Hart Island, traditionally used for burials of people who have no known next of kin or whose relatives are unable to arrange a funeral, is now receiving so many bodies that a special labor force has been hired to bury them.  There is a distinct possibility that its buildings will be used for storage of other bodies as New York City’s morgues reach full capacity.  Work has begun on large trenches in which to bury the bodies en masse.

Boris Johnson is out of intensive care and appears to be recovering, but he will require several days of rest before resuming his political responsibilities. 

Governor Northam, the only governor in the country who has had experience as a professional doctor, has banned neckties for physicians and orderlies working in hospitals, on the grounds that these can be vectors for the disease.  In general, his demeanor has inspired much more confidence than Trump’s, to say the least.  He can speak with greater authority, having personally treated soldiers in a hospital in Germany during the first Gulf War, and (as might be expected from a professional physician) he has a good bedside manner when speaking about the pandemic, calm and dispassionate, greatly contrasting with Trump’s displays of temper and petulant remarks whenever the tiniest breath of criticism reaches his ears.  Basically he is setting his own guidelines for the state and ignoring Trump’s proposed national ones.  Thus the stay-at-home order for Virginia remains in effect for June 10^th, long after Trump’s projected return to normal activity at the end of April. 

Yet another development for the USS Theodore Roosevelt fiasco:  one of the sailors diagnosed with the virus is now in intensive care.  Despite this not unexpected result, there seems to be little chance of Brett Crozier getting restitution for being unjustly penalized for seeking medical attention for his men as expeditiously as possible.  He seems to have been forgotten within the course of a few days, even by the Democrats who lauded him chiefly in order to display their hostility to Trump.

Today is Good Friday.  Most Christians are sadly resigned to the fact that their church services will have to be virtual.  Indeed, it is impossible not to be sorry for those who truly believe and who naturally wish to be together on such an important ritual as this one.  Under the circumstances, “let this cup pass from me” is peculiarly appropriate for this year.

Trump, incidentally, has issued a tweet wishing everyone “HAPPY GOOD FRIDAY” – which is akin to wishing Jews a merry Yom Kippur.  He does not seem to be aware that Good Friday commemorates the crucifixion and that, far from being happy, is the most somber day of the year for believing Christians.  Even an outsider like me knows that much.  One would have expected some adverse comments or at least an expression of surprise about this display of ignorance from his fundamentalist Christian supporters but they all appear to be stricken with silence on the matter.

Some good news amidst all of this ferment:  selumetinib, a drug proved to be effective for plexiform neurofibromatosis Type 1 (pediatric elephant’s disease) has been approved by the FDA.  My good friend Austin Doyle* played a prominent, indeed a central role in its development, and his efforts were critical in persuading the company that manufactures it not to abandon the necessary research.  He retired last year, but he was recognized by the National Cancer Institute for his untiring efforts on the project, which lasted from 2008 to the day of his retirement.

Today’s statistics as of 8:30 PM — # of cases worldwide: 1,691,719; # of deaths worldwide: 102,525; # of cases U.S.: 496,535; # of deaths U.S.: 18,586. 

*I have deviated here from my convention of referring to personal acquaintances by initials only because his name came up in a public context.

Morning statistics – The state of New York – Shopping at Wegmans – Latin-American drug cartels – More illness in the family – The virus affecting how people tend ill or dying relatives – The blithe unconcern of Tony Spell – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 1,496,055; # of deaths worldwide: 89,435; # of cases U.S.: 432,438; # of deaths U.S.: 14,808.  Presumably duplicate records were identified.  There must have been some over-reporting last night, because the numbers of cases worldwide and of U.S. deaths are lower than they were thirteen hours ago, which doesn’t make sense otherwise.  In Spain the mortality rate now is almost exactly 10%.  In Italy and France it is even higher, perhaps one death for every eight cases.  Even in the U.K. the mortality rate is over 11%.  Belgium and the Netherlands have similarly high mortality rates.  The rates for Portugal and Austria, curiously, are much lower.  Austria is perhaps understandable; its neighbors are Germany and Switzerland, where the mortality rate are also low, and Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, and Slovenia, which so far have had relatively low numbers of cases.  But it also borders Northern Italy, which has had high numbers both of cases and deaths.  Portugal is even more puzzling; its sole neighbor is Spain, where the mortality rate is high, but its mortality rate is less than 3%. 

New York State now has more cases than Spain or Italy, although its population is much lower than that of either country.

I went to Wegmans today, and that experience seems likely to be a portent of what is to come in future weeks.  It was crowded; I arrived just as the doors were opening and there was a line of people waiting to get in.  I entered without difficulty or delay, but when I finished and emerged back out I saw several people waiting outside; like many other stores, Wegmans is limiting the number of customers who can be in the store at once.  Several shelves were empty.  The selection of fruits and vegetables in particular was limited.  But the store had bread, which was a good thing; flour and yeast are now scarce items.  And they had wipes – only one container per customer, which is quite reasonable, considering how much they are demand; but one container holds 75 wipes, which should be sufficient for some time.  I wore my mask, and it worked well. I felt more comfortable with it on.  People behaved very well on the whole, but there were times when it was impossible to be more than six feet from at least one of them. Shopping for groceries will become more difficult over the next few weeks.  One is reminded of the line in Brecht’s Galileo about the need for cautious doubt rather than blind faith:  “By credulity the Roman housewife’s daily battle for milk is lost.”

The Latin American drug cartels, I am delighted to hear, have been affected by the pandemic.  Their supply chain of ingredients has been disrupted, especially as many of them come from China.  Also, the lower amount of traffic on the streets makes smugglers more conspicuous and easier to track down.  Ditto for air traffic; the number of airplanes in the skies has been dramatically reduced, so that drug planes are easier for the authorities to spot.  All of this comes at a time when demand is higher than ever in the U.S., due to anxiety over the virus and the stay-at-home orders. 

I checked in with my aunt today and she gave me an interesting piece of news:  her son (my cousin), his wife, and his son all contracted the virus and were laid up for a couple of days.  They have since recovered.  I called my cousin afterwards.  He told me that he wanted to keep quiet about the matter until it was over, not wanting to be distracted by useless exclamations from relatives – quite sensibly.  I would have done the same thing in his place.  They are all on the mend now, but he tells me that it pulls you down tremendously when it hits you and it takes a considerable time to get back to normal.

CC, a member of the Vigorous Hiking group, has not been able to join us for some time because she is looking after her husband, who has had cancer that has now spread to both lungs.  The restrictions imposed by the virus make matters all the more difficult for her, both physically and emotionally.  It seems likely that her husband’s passing will come very soon.  She is not even allowed to enter the hospital where he is being treated; and painful as this restriction is, it is a necessary one:  hospitals are excellent places in which to contract illnesses. 

It appears that even the Hasids restrained themselves and did not congregate in large numbers for the first night of Passover.  By way of contrast, Tony Spell refuses to abide by Louisiana’s ban on large gatherings and holds in-person church services, saying that “True Christians do not mind dying.”  He faces six misdemeanor charges, each of which has a maximum penalty of six months of jail and a $500 fine.  That means that if he is convicted of every single charge he will be out of pocket by a grand total of – $3000?  Of course, in such a case he will be liable to some time in prison.  We shall see if Governor Bel Edwards has the strength of purpose to punish him as he deserves, but I doubt very much that Spell will end up doing any time in jail. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:30 PM — # of cases worldwide: 1,595,350; # of deaths worldwide: 95,455; # of cases U.S.: 461,437; # of deaths U.S.: 16,478.  Sweden may have to rethink its laissez-faire attitude towards the virus; it is soaring well ahead of its neighbors in Scandinavia.  Our own mortality rate is relatively low (about 3.5%, which is better than the majority of European nations) and the number of deaths with respect to the population at large is also still relatively low (about 1 in 20,000).  But these numbers are expected to go up dramatically within the next seven to ten days.

Morning statistics – Comic interlude – Streetfight in Detroit – A much-needed haircut – Cash going out of style – Illness looked upon as crime, à la Erewhon – Mask working at last – Eye trouble – Bernie Sanders – A conservative driven to the Democratic Party – Failures of liberalism – Worse failures of Republican Party – Passover – Charlotte Figi – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 6:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 1,441,128; # of deaths worldwide: 82,992; # of cases U.S.: 399,929; # of deaths U.S.: 12,991.  The U.S. now accounts for nearly 28% of the cases in the world and over 15% of the deaths.  These figures will undoubtedly increase.  The virus is levelling off to some extent in the European countries, but not here.  It is said, however, that the curve in New York is flattening at last.  It certainly is high time; New York City accounts for 4,000 of the deaths.

Some of the stories that emerge are unexpectedly comic.  Brant Walker, mayor of Alton, IL, announced the he directed the police department of the town to issue citations and arrests for those who failed to comply with Illinois’ stay-at-home order.  Two days later the police broke up a gathering at a bar in downtown and issued citations of reckless conduct to everyone who participated.  Walker’s wife was among them.  Walker, at least, has openly admitted his embarrassment.  He has assured citizens that his wife will be penalized as heavily as the others and has referred to her “stunning lack of judgment.” 

And then there are other tales that are downright sordid.  In the eastern part of Detroit two young women met on the streets for the express purpose of “fighting it out” – to use their own words – and many people gathered together to watch this thrilling spectacle.  Some of the more responsible residents called the police and begged them to interfere, but the police declined, citing their stretched resources.  Detroit’s sorry living conditions have been common knowledge for years, but there can be no doubt that this city has completely rotted.

Lori Lightfoot, the mayor of Chicago, had her hair cut and styled by a professional, although barbershops and salons are closed.  Lightfoot brushed aside criticisms of her behavior, stating that she is in the public eye and therefore needs to look her best.  In Her Honor’s own words, “I felt like I needed a haircut.”  Well, I guess that clears that up.

From Margaret Atwood’s The Handmaid’s Tale, set at some unknown time in the future, when the unnamed protagonist is reminiscing about an earlier age:  “You had to take those pieces of paper with you when you went shopping, though by the time I was nine or ten most people used plastic cards.  Not for the groceries, though, that came later.  It seems so primitive, totemistic even, like cowry shells.”  We are undeniably heading in that direction, approaching the time when credit will displace cash entirely, and the restrictions imposed by the virus will accelerate this trend.  Paying with cash is discouraged at the moment, because notes and coins passing through various hands are potential sources of contagion.  I like paying with cash myself:  a habit retained from my days as a graduate student, when I was living on a very restricted budget and wanted to know the state of my bank balance at all times.  When you pay with credit, it’s easier to lose track of your expenditures and then be unpleasantly surprised by the monthly statement from the credit card company.  It’s going to be even more difficult to practice the habit of thrift in the future than it is now, but then again it’s a habit that most of my compatriots have never thought of acquiring.

Speaking of future projections, we may be coming to a time when social conditions will be rather like those described in Erewhon, in which bad health of any kind is regarded as disreputable and even criminal.  Persons whose health is less robust than the average may be forced to subterfuges such as those used by Mahaina, the sickly young woman who conceals her illnesses by pretending to be a drunk.  As an invalid she would have been shunned by society; but as it is, her lady friends are very sympathetic towards her and inquire solicitously after her “poor dipsomania.”

Today I tried out a home-made mask again, and this one was reasonably successful:  I could walk about with my nostrils and mouth completely covered, and yet my breathing was not affected.  I don’t know whether it is entirely satisfactory – that is, I am uncertain as to how effective it might be in shielding me from any droplets from others.  Also, it was an unusually warm day for the time of day (about 80 degrees) and it was not altogether comfortable under such conditions.  Still, it was usable and I should be able to go out with it on in future.  I have a second mask as well, so that I can wash one out on the same day that I’m wearing another.

I had a bit of a scare this morning.  When typing at the workstation an area in the left eye became blurry.  I had had a detached retina in the right eye some years ago, and I wondered if the left one was going to follow suit.  So I left the workstation and went outside to perform an errand that I needed to do anyway, that of depositing a check from long-term care insurance into my mother’s account.  The bank is about a mile and a half away, and I deliberately returned on a rather circuitous route, walking about four miles in all.  By that time the blurriness had disappeared.  It was probably just eyestrain, but I will be monitoring the condition.  I do not want to see an eye doctor just now; appointments for any kind of medical treatment can be difficult to obtain at present.  My annual eye exam is due for June, so I hope I can wait until then.  By that time, one hopes, the worst of the virus’s effects will be over.  But if the condition recurs I will be forced to consult someone earlier.

Bernie Sanders has resigned from the race in the primaries, paving the way for Joe Biden to be nominated.  Sanders has not the least chance of winning an election, being completely devoid of economic sense or of sense of any other description for that matter.  Biden is certainly no Solomon, as the English would say, but he is honest, decent, and cultivated, and in all of these characteristics provides a most refreshing contrast to the man who currently holds office.

I never thought that I would live to see the day that I would become an ardent Democrat.  But the Republicans have brought this upon themselves; I suspect many with relatively conservative views feel as I do.  The Democrats, it is true, have mortgaged themselves to the Far Left.  I disagree heartily with many of their policies, such as opening up our doors to aliens entering illegally or striving to abolish the electoral college or making airplane travel so prohibitively expensive that none but the wealthiest will be able to afford it.  Their so-called liberalism has fallen into disrepute because it is littered with broken promises.  It is not a release from the forces of orthodoxy and dogmatism but their intensification; it has come to represent a compulsory yoke to the Marxist philosophy that has repeatedly paved the way to tyranny and oppression; and its adherents have already effected a merciless grinding down of the wage-earning classes that they have not known for decades – perhaps have never known.  

But the Republicans have done even worse.  They have tamely submitted to a thorough egomaniac who is concerned only with staying in power and is indifferent to every other consideration.  His folly and incompetence in dealing with the pandemic (or indeed with any other problem) are apparent even to the dullest comprehension, and its results will be little short of catastrophic in a matter of weeks:  thousands of people dead, many thousands of businesses ruined, and a health care system left in a shambles as a result of the strain it will undergo.  Like well-bred spaniels, they flatter him without stint whenever he falls into a paroxysm of rage – a fairly frequent occasion – express gratitude for the unkindness with which they are treated, and grovel at his feet whenever he addresses them.  They have almost all become Trump’s menials, and their association with him appears to have drained every vestige of sense or manhood from them.

Such is the current state of the two parties that hold the fate of the nation in their hands.  I wish that there were an alternative to them, but there is none.

I am forced, therefore, to fling in my lot with the Democrats and to hope that Biden, if and when he comes to power, will be able to impose a measure of restraint on the more extreme members of his party – and hope, also, that in four years’ time the Republicans will have learned something from their ignominious association with a man who would have assumed the powers of a satrap if he could, and bring forth a candidate for the 2024 election somewhat more suited to the leadership of a free country.  This last hope, however, remains precisely that – a hope, little supported by conviction or confidence.  The Republicans have become so used to crawling on their bellies during the past four years that it will be no easy matter for them to learn how to stand upright again.

Tonight will begin the first seder of Passover.  This ceremony tends to be the occasion for family get-togethers, but these will have to be abandoned this year.

Charlotte Figi is dead at the age of 13, one of the youngest victims of the virus.  She suffered from epilepsy, and the only treatment that gave her relief was the application of oil obtained from cannabis; her situation was a major catalyst that led to the legalization of marijuana in medical treatments.  And in fact, it has proven effective in cases of epilepsy when the more usual array of pharmaceuticals has failed.  The treatment enabled her to get relief from seizures and eventually to wean her from the feeding tube that her condition originally necessitated.  And now, having successfully overcome that hurdle and having thus obtained a childhood somewhat less free from perpetual invalidism, she was attacked by the virus and succumbed just as life was opening up to her.  Poor child, poor child!

Today’s statistics as of 7:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 1,511,104; # of deaths worldwide: 88,338; # of cases U.S.: 429,052; # of deaths U.S.: 14,695.  In about half a day the number of cases here has increased by 30,000 and the number of deaths by nearly 2,000.

Evening statistics – Driving early in moonlight – The “Redbud” hike – Boris Johnson – Removal of a parasite – Yaakov Litzman – Rand Paul – Reluctance of black men to wear masks – John Prine

Today’s statistics as of 6:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 1,415,415; # of deaths worldwide: 81,200; # of cases U.S.: 386,617; # of deaths U.S.: 12,285.  The number of active cases in China has fallen to below 2,000.  But in Spain and Italy they continue to increase, albeit somewhat less rapidly than before.  The totals in France and Germany have also spiraled.

I had to get up early to drive to a hike today.  It was still dark and the moon was visible.  It was a full moon, somewhat yellow in color, almost golden but with overtones of pink.    

The hike I completed was the “Redbud” hike with the Vigorous Hikers.  It has a somewhat interesting history.  For many years the PATC sponsored a 32-mile hike in the Massanuttens called the “Dogwood.”  In those days I did not feel confident enough to hike such a distance, but one year I decided that, although I could not participate that year because of schedule conflicts, I would enter myself for the event on the following year.  But there was no event for the following year; one of the hikers died from a fall in the event and although she, along with every other participant, had signed a waiver, her widower threatened to sue the PATC if they sponsored another such event.  So it was dropped.

The Vigorous Hikers club thereupon decided to take it up, albeit in a modified form.  For many years it set up a long hike called the “Redbud”, which generally consisted of starting from one end of the Catoctin Trail and ending at the other:  26 miles in all.  However, that route was not feasible this year, since it would have required a shuttle.  Instead, we did a route in the Great North Mountain area, starting and ending at the Bucktail parking area:  about 8½ miles on the Long Mountain Trail to Rte. 591, about 2 miles on Rte. 591 to the Tibbett Knob Trail, about 2 miles on the Tibbett Knob Trail to Wolf Gap, about 6 miles on the Mill Mountain Trail to the Tuscarora Trail, about 1½ miles on the Tuscarora Trail to the Halfmoon Trail, about 2 miles on the Halfmoon Trail to the Bucktail Cutoff Trail, and about 3 miles on the Bucktail Cutoff Trail back to the parking lot – about 25 miles total, with about 5000 feet elevation gain.  For those who (as I did) added the scramble up to Big Schloss, an additional half-mile of distance and nearly 200 feet of elevation gain should be factored in.  As with the hike in Pennsylvania five days earlier, I had an uneasy feeling that we were adhering to the letter of the law rather than the spirit.  We are allowed to go out for exercise and recreation, and there are no limits set on the distance we may drive to obtain it or the amount of time we spend outside for the purpose.  But I think that if Ralph Northam were aware that I and the others drove 1½ -2½ hours to a trailhead and then proceeded to hike 8 to 11 hours on end, he would not approve.  And yet we certainly were practicing social distancing; there were only eight of us and we rapidly dispersed, since we go at different paces; and we were hiking on trails that were not heavily used; in all of that distance I saw only six other hikers who were not part of our group.  But in California going outside for recreational activity has now fallen under the ban; it is not out of the question that the Mid-Atlantic states will follow suit.

Boris Johnson continues to be in critical condition.  His symptoms are serious but he is considered stable.

Thomas Muddle – er, Modly – has been ousted for the very thing he accused Brett Crozier of doing:  publicly leaking an audio of his profanity-laced address to the USS Theodore Roosevelt crew, in which he called Crozier “stupid” for elevating the issue of the effects of the virus on the crew to the media.  The difference, of course, is that Crozier was motivated by concern for the health of the men for whom he felt responsible, whereas Modly’s motives consisted mainly of desiring to earn brownie points from President Trump, who evidently is his tutor in manners.  I wouldn’t be surprised to learn that sheer personal spite was a factor as well.  The outraged reaction from the crew, the media, and the Congressional representatives was so intense as to make it clear even to him that he was no longer wanted by anyone, in any capacity.  This news is well enough as far as it goes – it certainly is good to know that this destructive barnacle has been scraped off of the deck once and for all – but who is to compensate Crozier for the loss of his command, the blighting of his career, and the public humiliation he has received from the President of the United States?

Yaakov Litzman, the Israeli health minister, claimed that the coronavirus is a divine punishment for the sin of homosexuality.  He has since been diagnosed with the virus.  I can only infer that his love life is more varied than is generally supposed.

Rand Paul has become the first senator to test positive for the coronavirus.  He has since recovered and is doing volunteer work at the hospital where he was treated; he was a doctor before he became a politician.  His father, who is also a doctor, claimed that the coronavirus is a hoax.  The virus has since infected nearly 400,000 people in this country alone.  I wish some of my hoaxes were as effective.

Several black men are reluctant to wear masks, because when they do people assume that they contemplating a hold-up or some other crime.  We have not as a nation made much progress in racial relations.

John Prine died today from the virus.  I noted his contracting of the virus a little over a week ago; it can wreak its destruction with horrifying speed.

Morning statistics – Tony Spell again – Boris Johnson – Margaret Cirko – A friend with the virus – Reminders of life in graduate school – The mask still needs work – Brett Crozier and Thomas Modly – Wildlife growing bolder – Virginia – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 7:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 1,280,046; # of deaths worldwide: 70,356; # of cases U.S.: 337,993; # of deaths U.S.: 9,653.  In China the number of active cases is just over 2,000; this number at least is steadily diminishing – if only their statistics could be trusted!  The incidence of the virus has greatly expanded in Germany, with over 100,000 cases and 1,500 deaths.  In some European nations the curve appears to be flattening, but this trend is sporadic.  In Denmark, for example, they are thinking of easing the stay-at-home policies on account of the diminishing number of new cases; whereas the U.K. has had a large increase of both cases and deaths.  It is a puzzle to me why the mortality rate is so high there:  over 10%.  Their health care system is not in the state of disarray that prevails in Spain and their population does not have quite as much preponderance of the elderly.

Tony Spell continues to defy the stay-at-home order issued by Bel Edwards, governor of Louisiana, and to hold church services despite the ban against gatherings of ten people or more, and Governor Edwards continues to fail to take action against him.

Boris Johnson, the Prime Minister of the U.K., is hospitalized, ten days after being diagnosed with the virus.  He is now in intensive care.  His fiancée, Carrie Symonds, also has symptoms of the virus but has not required hospitalization. 

Margaret Cirko, a woman in Luzerne County, PA, has charged with felony counts of terrorist threats, threats to use a “biological agent,” and criminal mischief.  She intentionally coughed and spat on the produce of a grocery store, forcing it to throw away $35000 worth of produce.  The charges sound extreme; but Ms. Cirko seems to be as low a creature as ever walked on two legs, so I am not inclined to quarrel with the authorities for slamming the book at her.

PF, president of the Capital Hiking Club, was affected by the virus this past weekend.  He says, however, that it was a mild case and that he has recovered.  The club’s hikes are to be postponed indefinitely.  The visit to California to hike in Kings Canyon, initially set to June 6-14, will probably be canceled.  In all probability the visit to my friends in New Jersey next month will be canceled as well.  At this point only the trip to September to Colorado has not been affected, and even the plans for that remain uncertain.

The pattern of my life now reminds me to an extent of my life in Philadelphia when I was a graduate at the University of Pennsylvania.  It was not a happy time in many ways, and yet there is a strange satisfaction in looking back on it.  For several years I was dependent on my teaching stipend, which was $4000 per year, later raised to $5000.  Of course these figures were for the late 1970s and early 1980s, so they were less scandalously low than they may appear.  Still, it made for living on a very narrow margin.  Excursions for grocery shopping had to be planned in advance and it was necessary to adhere to a very strict budget.  Also, I rarely ate out, a practice which restricted social activities with my fellow-students.  In order to save time, I would cook food in bulk and refrigerate or freeze it.  I was not living in poverty in the strictest sense of the word; I would spend the summers in my parents’ house and I always had the knowledge that if I ever got hopelessly mired in debt, they would bail me out.  Nonetheless an experience such as mine has this advantage if it is successfully sustained:  the prospect of living again on a reduced scale does not hold any terrors for me.  I like to think that I looked after myself rather well.  I even managed to put by a little nest egg during this time.  My mother was actually a bit disappointed that I never brought back any laundry of mine for her to wash whenever I visited home; she would have done it gladly, but I did not wish to be waited upon in that way in my early twenties, like a child at nurse. 

I tried using a homemade mask today when I went out, but I still have to work on it; it practically stifled me when I put it on.  And in this context it may be mentioned that President Trump refuses to wear a mask at all, despite the recommendations of the CDC.  That is rather surprising, since his sense of self-preservation is in general tolerably keen.  Is it simply that personal vanity prevents him from covering up his face in public?  Surely he does not suppose that people’s gazes linger upon his features in contemplation of their beauty; that would be too much self-delusion, even for him.

Brett Crozier must be ruing the day that he ever joined the Navy.  Not only has he been abused by the Navy Secretary and showered with contempt from the President on account of his pleas to preserve the lives of the men on the USS Theodore Roosevelt under his command, but he has now contracted the coronavirus as a result of serving on that ill-fated vessel.  Elaine Luria, a member of the House of Representatives, is calling for the ouster of Thomas Modly, Trump’s sordid apparatchik who shunted Crozier off so unceremoniously.  I am happy to say that she represents a district from Virginia.  I hope she has the strength of purpose to pursue this objective and get other Congressional members to rally behind her. 

The wildlife is growing bolder as a result of the reduction of human activity.  While walking in suburban Fairfax today, I saw a fox cross a street and dash through the back yard of one of the houses.

Virginia has a relatively low number of cases.  It is the 12^th most populous state in the country, but 23^rd on the list of number of positive cases.  But there is a shortage of testing supplies in the state and in all probability only a fraction of people who are actually infected in Virginia have been tested. 

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 1,345,048; # of deaths worldwide: 74,679; # of cases U.S.: 367,507; # of deaths U.S.: 10,908.  In 14 hours the U.S. incidence of cases has increased by about 30,000 and the number of deaths by 1,000.