Afternoon statistics – Inept national leaders – North Korea – Decline in acceleration – The selflessness of Giuseppe Berardelli – Potential loss of college football season – What goes into the making of a headline? – Tony Spell and Bel Edwards – Contrast of attitudes between Sweden on one hand and Malaysia and Vietnam on the other – Outbreak in a nursing home – The Hajj at risk
Today’s statistics as of 4:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 873,767; # of deaths worldwide: 43,288; # of cases U.S.: 189,633; # of deaths U.S.: 4,081. Our President appears to be facing realities at last, although I must say that it’s bit late in the day. He has warned the nation to expect between 100,000 and 240,000 deaths by the time the virus has finished its course.
I wonder what future historians will make of the abundance of national leaders in our time who are manifestly unqualified for their jobs. There are the thoroughly vicious ones, such as Kim Jong-un, who not only trouble the outside world with their sable-rattling but who bear down on their own serfs – and there is no other word for them – with a rod of iron; there are the “practical” ones, such as Xi Jinping, who sacrifice thousands of citizens and pollute the environment with perfect obliviousness in their pursuit of wealth; there are the buffoons, such as Alexander Lukashenko, who without being actively malevolent manage to do a great deal of harm by a combination of over-weaning self-confidence, complete ignorance of the most basic tenets of science or economics, a constant need for attention as great as that of a spoiled nine-year old child, and unlimited power. Trump definitely falls into this third category.
North Korea claims to have no cases of the virus. That is doubtful, to put it mildly. It is probable, indeed, that the virus at present is far less prevalent than in China or South Korea. North Korea has practiced self-isolation – quarantine, in fact – from most other nations for decades. Still, such photographs and reports that emerge from that nation indicate that the virus is making the rounds; and with the country’s shattered medical care system and the number of North Koreans suffering from malnutrition, it seems probable that there will be considerable devastation in the weeks to come.
Some good news: recently there has been a trend of deceleration in the number of new cases on a day-by-day basis. From March 22nd to March 30th the increase in the number of new cases from the number of new cases of the preceding day has been: 3/23 – 789; 3/24 – 886; 3/25 – 2280; 3/26 – 3869; 3/27 – 1467; 3/28 – 761; 3/29 – 461; 3/30 – 384. We may get to negative acceleration by the end of the month.
Since it sounds like I’ve been bashing religion in these notes I will mention an example of nobility inspired by religious faith. Giuseppe Berardelli, an Italian priest serving in a small village near Milan, was greatly beloved by his congregation and when he contracted the virus they bought him a respirator. He insisted, however, on giving the respirator away to a patient who was younger (he was 72) and struggling for breath on the grounds that this other person, whom he did not know at all, had a greater need than he did. He did this knowing very well that such a deed might result in his death; and so it did. Even though it was impossible under the current circumstances to hold a funeral for him, all of the inhabitants of the village mourned his passing.
If I contract the disease, I must bear in mind that I am 65 and have lived a full life, and that I must not take away resources from others who are afflicted and who have not yet had the opportunities to sample what life has to offer. I sincerely hope that such fine-sounding resolutions never need be put to the test; but if the worst comes, may I have the strength of purpose to adhere to them.
Ironically these who are not felled by the disease are becoming healthier in general, on account of the absence of fast food and the greater reliance on biking and walking to perform errands.
The author of one article speculates that the coronavirus scare could cancel the American university football season. What a boon that would be if so! The college sports programs are not the only factor that is weakening our educational system, but they comprise a major one. A university should be a place for study, not for playing games – at least, not for playing games as a major focal point. Football as a leisure activity is fine. Football as an alternative for concentrated intellectual effort is bad. So it is with baseball, basketball, lacrosse, and so on. These young men and women striving to be professional athletes at their colleges’ expense have badly diluted the quality of the average student on American campuses. I can remember the days that I taught Freshman English at the University of Pennsylvania and was forced to attempt to instill the rudimentary principles of grammar to one player on the university basketball team. He was not arrogant by any means; on the contrary he was very gentle, very anxious to please – but he simply did not belong on a college campus. I took more pains with him than I would have done had he been conceited or assumed that he was entitled to special privileges on account of his position in a sports team; as it was, I spent hours trying to get him to understand such basic principles as parts of speech, tenses, gender. It was a wasted effort. Such concepts were beyond his powers of comprehension. It was the same story in his other classes; he spent most of his classroom time in a state of fuddled bewilderment and was comfortable only on the playing field. I sometimes wonder what became of him. I can only hope that he connected with a capable, strong-minded woman who was able to look after the interests of this man-child.
Journalists sometimes have very peculiar ideas of what constitutes newsworthy items. I’ve seen a number of articles devoted to the topic of John Cusack calling for Trump’s impeachment. And who, a historian a century or so in the future may ask, is John Cusack? A prominent Senator? A state governor? A Cabinet member? None of these things – he is a movie actor! Quite a good actor, for all I know, but nonetheless a man with no legal qualifications whatever. I dislike Trump myself, as I’ve noted repeatedly, and I would gladly see him impeached and removed from office; but I would not expect these opinions of mine to be reported in the national news.
Tony Spell, a pastor in central Louisiana, persists in holding crowded church services, despite the order from Bel Edwards, the state governor, banning gatherings. Edwards says that he has been “extremely patient” with the pastor and has made an appeal for “one more time: please stop what you’re doing.” In the same way, parents of spoiled brats persist in making idle threats of punishment that they are too faint-hearted to carry out and which, of course, the children completely ignore. Why are priests and pastors handled with kid gloves? If I were a governor and had issued an order banning gatherings, I’d go after anyone who defied it so brazenly, be he cleric or laic. There seems to be hardly one governor in power who could make such a claim.
Here is a list of the current death rates in the top ten countries in terms of their overall population: Italy, 0.0207%; Spain, 0.0193%; France, 0.0053%; UK, 0.0027%; Sweden, 0.0024%; Denmark, 0.0017%; USA, 0.0012%; Germany, 0.0010%; Norway, 0.0009%; Finland, 0.0003%. Sweden, as can be seen, is fifth on this list. Yet the Swedes continue to adopt a “business as normal” attitude. There are prohibitions against gatherings of more than 50 and restaurants must seat people at tables rather than allowing them to sit at bars; but other than that, they are acting as if there is no threat at all. I suppose that their government is doing an excellent job of reassuring them from fear; whether such a policy is conducive to overall national health (and international as well – after all, the virus does not recognize borders) remains to be seen.
Incidentally, both in Malaysia and Vietnam the fear of contracting the virus runs very high indeed, and both countries have taken rigorous measures to contain it. Malaysia has had 45 deaths so far (out of a population of 31 million people) and Vietnam has had none, so their reaction appears to have been a better approach than Sweden’s. Malaysia has banned all sports, religious, social, and cultural activities, and everyone in the country appears to be in compliance. This must be a fairly unusual example of fundamentalist Muslims showing much more restraint than fundamentalist Christians.
Another sad story: Richard Bliss, 38, fell into despair as a result of the spread of the virus causing him to lose his job. He shot his girlfriend four times, then turned the gun on himself. He died, but happily the girlfriend managed to escape with a wound to the back and she is expected to survive. The loss of my job at that age, with no immediate prospect of finding a new one, certainly would have depressed me; but I don’t believe I would have committed suicide. But it’s so easy to pass judgment on someone else under such circumstances. I am now financially secure, with the house paid off long ago and investment payments and pensions from corporations, with the prospect of getting Social Security as well in seven months. I am well-aware that concern about money can lead people to do strange things. I certainly feel less judgmental towards him than I do towards Tony Spell.
There has been an outbreak in a Maryland nursing home, brought in by an asymptomatic worker. But how was he to know? The home tested people by taking their temperatures whenever they entered the building. Since he was asymptomatic, his temperature was normal. Once he came into the building and made his rounds, the virus spread with astonishing speed and thoroughness. Of the 95 residents, 77 tested positive for the disease. Such situations are bound to become more common. It could occur in the assisted living facility where my mother lives. And the carrier might conceivably be me.
There is the possibility that the Hajj may be canceled. Saudi Arabia has warned pilgrims to hold off on booking reservations, although it has not canceled the event just yet. It takes place in July and August, and it is possible matters will be somewhat more settled then – though whether it will be prudent to set up an event involving 2 million people is still far from certain. In general, the Muslim religious authorities seem to be showing a much greater sense of responsibility than the Christian ones, at any rate the evangelical Christian authorities. The Umra, a shorter holy expedition to Mecca that may be performed at any time in the year, has already been banned for the time being.