Morning statistics – The state of New York – Shopping at Wegmans – Latin-American drug cartels – More illness in the family – The virus affecting how people tend ill or dying relatives – The blithe unconcern of Tony Spell – Evening statistics
Today’s statistics as of 8:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 1,496,055; # of deaths worldwide: 89,435; # of cases U.S.: 432,438; # of deaths U.S.: 14,808. Presumably duplicate records were identified. There must have been some over-reporting last night, because the numbers of cases worldwide and of U.S. deaths are lower than they were thirteen hours ago, which doesn’t make sense otherwise. In Spain the mortality rate now is almost exactly 10%. In Italy and France it is even higher, perhaps one death for every eight cases. Even in the U.K. the mortality rate is over 11%. Belgium and the Netherlands have similarly high mortality rates. The rates for Portugal and Austria, curiously, are much lower. Austria is perhaps understandable; its neighbors are Germany and Switzerland, where the mortality rate are also low, and Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, and Slovenia, which so far have had relatively low numbers of cases. But it also borders Northern Italy, which has had high numbers both of cases and deaths. Portugal is even more puzzling; its sole neighbor is Spain, where the mortality rate is high, but its mortality rate is less than 3%.
New York State now has more cases than Spain or Italy, although its population is much lower than that of either country.
I went to Wegmans today, and that experience seems likely to be a portent of what is to come in future weeks. It was crowded; I arrived just as the doors were opening and there was a line of people waiting to get in. I entered without difficulty or delay, but when I finished and emerged back out I saw several people waiting outside; like many other stores, Wegmans is limiting the number of customers who can be in the store at once. Several shelves were empty. The selection of fruits and vegetables in particular was limited. But the store had bread, which was a good thing; flour and yeast are now scarce items. And they had wipes – only one container per customer, which is quite reasonable, considering how much they are demand; but one container holds 75 wipes, which should be sufficient for some time. I wore my mask, and it worked well. I felt more comfortable with it on. People behaved very well on the whole, but there were times when it was impossible to be more than six feet from at least one of them. Shopping for groceries will become more difficult over the next few weeks. One is reminded of the line in Brecht’s Galileo about the need for cautious doubt rather than blind faith: “By credulity the Roman housewife’s daily battle for milk is lost.”
The Latin American drug cartels, I am delighted to hear, have been affected by the pandemic. Their supply chain of ingredients has been disrupted, especially as many of them come from China. Also, the lower amount of traffic on the streets makes smugglers more conspicuous and easier to track down. Ditto for air traffic; the number of airplanes in the skies has been dramatically reduced, so that drug planes are easier for the authorities to spot. All of this comes at a time when demand is higher than ever in the U.S., due to anxiety over the virus and the stay-at-home orders.
I checked in with my aunt today and she gave me an interesting piece of news: her son (my cousin), his wife, and his son all contracted the virus and were laid up for a couple of days. They have since recovered. I called my cousin afterwards. He told me that he wanted to keep quiet about the matter until it was over, not wanting to be distracted by useless exclamations from relatives – quite sensibly. I would have done the same thing in his place. They are all on the mend now, but he tells me that it pulls you down tremendously when it hits you and it takes a considerable time to get back to normal.
CC, a member of the Vigorous Hiking group, has not been able to join us for some time because she is looking after her husband, who has had cancer that has now spread to both lungs. The restrictions imposed by the virus make matters all the more difficult for her, both physically and emotionally. It seems likely that her husband’s passing will come very soon. She is not even allowed to enter the hospital where he is being treated; and painful as this restriction is, it is a necessary one: hospitals are excellent places in which to contract illnesses.
It appears that even the Hasids restrained themselves and did not congregate in large numbers for the first night of Passover. By way of contrast, Tony Spell refuses to abide by Louisiana’s ban on large gatherings and holds in-person church services, saying that “True Christians do not mind dying.” He faces six misdemeanor charges, each of which has a maximum penalty of six months of jail and a $500 fine. That means that if he is convicted of every single charge he will be out of pocket by a grand total of – $3000? Of course, in such a case he will be liable to some time in prison. We shall see if Governor Bel Edwards has the strength of purpose to punish him as he deserves, but I doubt very much that Spell will end up doing any time in jail.
Today’s statistics as of 8:30 PM — # of cases worldwide: 1,595,350; # of deaths worldwide: 95,455; # of cases U.S.: 461,437; # of deaths U.S.: 16,478. Sweden may have to rethink its laissez-faire attitude towards the virus; it is soaring well ahead of its neighbors in Scandinavia. Our own mortality rate is relatively low (about 3.5%, which is better than the majority of European nations) and the number of deaths with respect to the population at large is also still relatively low (about 1 in 20,000). But these numbers are expected to go up dramatically within the next seven to ten days.