Morning statistics – High mortality rate of the U.K. – Deterioration of standard of public debate – Groups of people at higher risk – Potter’s Field – Boris Johnson – Ralph Northam – More developments on the case of the USS Roosevelt – Good Friday – Trump cries “Encore” for the crucifixion – A drug for reducing the impact of a disabling childhood disease approved by the FDA – Evening statistics
Today’s statistics as of 8:30 AM — # of cases worldwide: 1,611,981; # of deaths worldwide: 96,783; # of cases U.S.: 466,299; # of deaths U.S.: 16,686. More than 16,000 new cases and more than 1,000 deaths in the space of less than 12 hours. There are bright spots here and there. The rate of the death toll in Spain is going down. In New York the increase of newly hospitalized patients in New York is now 1%, considerably lower than before. Nearly a quarter of the people who contracted the virus have since recovered.
Why is the mortality rate in the United Kingdom so high? It is over 12% — worse than that of Spain and comparable with that of Italy. I can’t believe that its medical system is worse than either of those two countries, or that our own is so much better than theirs. (Our own rate is currently about 3.5%.) It may be that their testing is more extensive and that they have diagnosed the number of people afflicted by the disease more effectively. We know that many people are going about who have the disease but who have not been diagnosed. That’s one reason the virus is spreading so quickly. The total actual number of cases in any country is simply not known. Also, many of the people who have contracted the virus are not yet recovered or dead, so that the mortality rate may go up for any single country within any projected time. I’m certain that it will go up in the U.S. Still, all of these factors do not quite explain why the figures in the U.K. are not closer to those of Switzerland or Germany.
Bill O’Reilly has said that those who died of the virus “were on their last legs anyway,” adding that “I don’t want to sound callous about that.”
This is a good example of how much the quality of public debate has deteriorated in our nation. Party politics were every bit as partisan and emotionally charged when I was growing up as they are now, but the tone of public discourse was notably more civil and – to use an old-fashioned word – even gentlemanly, at least at times. During the course of the Vietnam War people from both parties became much more prone to unbridled abuse of one another and any code of manners that existed became completely unraveled. At this point casual brutalities such as O’Reilly’s comments have become commonplace. As to the gist of his argument – it certainly is true that many of the deaths occurred among people who had other issues, such as obesity, diabetes, etc., but it is also true that many others were quite healthy before fatally contracting the virus. In every epidemic those who are less healthy to begin with are at greater risk than those who are more robust, but that does not make the epidemic any the less injurious.
Potter’s Field on Hart Island, traditionally used for burials of people who have no known next of kin or whose relatives are unable to arrange a funeral, is now receiving so many bodies that a special labor force has been hired to bury them. There is a distinct possibility that its buildings will be used for storage of other bodies as New York City’s morgues reach full capacity. Work has begun on large trenches in which to bury the bodies en masse.
Boris Johnson is out of intensive care and appears to be recovering, but he will require several days of rest before resuming his political responsibilities.
Governor Northam, the only governor in the country who has had experience as a professional doctor, has banned neckties for physicians and orderlies working in hospitals, on the grounds that these can be vectors for the disease. In general, his demeanor has inspired much more confidence than Trump’s, to say the least. He can speak with greater authority, having personally treated soldiers in a hospital in Germany during the first Gulf War, and (as might be expected from a professional physician) he has a good bedside manner when speaking about the pandemic, calm and dispassionate, greatly contrasting with Trump’s displays of temper and petulant remarks whenever the tiniest breath of criticism reaches his ears. Basically he is setting his own guidelines for the state and ignoring Trump’s proposed national ones. Thus the stay-at-home order for Virginia remains in effect for June 10th, long after Trump’s projected return to normal activity at the end of April.
Yet another development for the USS Theodore Roosevelt fiasco: one of the sailors diagnosed with the virus is now in intensive care. Despite this not unexpected result, there seems to be little chance of Brett Crozier getting restitution for being unjustly penalized for seeking medical attention for his men as expeditiously as possible. He seems to have been forgotten within the course of a few days, even by the Democrats who lauded him chiefly in order to display their hostility to Trump.
Today is Good Friday. Most Christians are sadly resigned to the fact that their church services will have to be virtual. Indeed, it is impossible not to be sorry for those who truly believe and who naturally wish to be together on such an important ritual as this one. Under the circumstances, “let this cup pass from me” is peculiarly appropriate for this year.
Trump, incidentally, has issued a tweet wishing everyone “HAPPY GOOD FRIDAY” – which is akin to wishing Jews a merry Yom Kippur. He does not seem to be aware that Good Friday commemorates the crucifixion and that, far from being happy, is the most somber day of the year for believing Christians. Even an outsider like me knows that much. One would have expected some adverse comments or at least an expression of surprise about this display of ignorance from his fundamentalist Christian supporters but they all appear to be stricken with silence on the matter.
Some good news amidst all of this ferment: selumetinib, a drug proved to be effective for plexiform neurofibromatosis Type 1 (pediatric elephant’s disease) has been approved by the FDA. My good friend Austin Doyle* played a prominent, indeed a central role in its development, and his efforts were critical in persuading the company that manufactures it not to abandon the necessary research. He retired last year, but he was recognized by the National Cancer Institute for his untiring efforts on the project, which lasted from 2008 to the day of his retirement.
Today’s statistics as of 8:30 PM — # of cases worldwide: 1,691,719; # of deaths worldwide: 102,525; # of cases U.S.: 496,535; # of deaths U.S.: 18,586.
*I have deviated here from my convention of referring to personal acquaintances by initials only because his name came up in a public context.