Month: April 2020

Morning statistics – Palm Sunday – The evangelicals as a loose cannon – Another attempt at making a face mask – Brett Crozier pays the penalty for his imprudence – Donald Trump, Monarch of Pointland – Fatal accident in the Chesapeake Bay – The address of Queen Elizabeth II – New Orleans – Loss of holiday celebrations – Evening statistics – Spring continues apace

Today’s statistics as of 7:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 1,213,927; # of deaths worldwide: 65,652; # of cases U.S.: 312,245; # of deaths U.S.: 8,503.  Both Spain and Italy now have a death rate of over 0.025% of their population – that is to say, over one in four thousand have died.  New York City had 562 deaths yesterday, an average of one death every 2½ minutes.

Today is Palm Sunday, and we shall see how much restraint the churches will show in the services ordinarily held for that occasion.  Still, the Catholics are behaving quite sensibly.  Pope Francis is conducting the liturgies via livestream.  Public masses have been suspended in Italy since March 8^th, and the Vatican has followed suit.  And in this country the Catholic churches all appear to have moved their services online.  The Episcopalians and the Lutherans have shown a similar degree of restraint.   

The problem, of course, lies with the evangelicals.  “Satan is trying to keep us apart!” is their banner-cry.  The pastors continue their ostrich-like behavior towards the impending hazard and pretend that it doesn’t exist, or that at any rate it will refrain from harming the holiness of them and their congregations.  The governors of most states have issued stay-at-home orders, but when it comes to these pastors they simply will not touch them, for fear of offending an important bloc of voters.  Satan, if he exists, must be chuckling and rubbing his hands with glee at this outcome.

I tried using a homemade mask today and while it was not perfect it certainly was better than my last attempt in this direction.  I will have to acquire elastic bands, however, like those that women use to bind up their ponytails; rubber bands are too fragile. 

The number of coronavirus cases on the USS Theodore Roosevelt is now 155, an increase of 15% in a day.  Thomas Modly, the Navy Secretary, has said that the firing of its captain was done on his own violation and that he received no prompting from Trump.  But as the normal procedure for relieving an officer of his command involves a preliminary military investigation (which almost certainly would have exonerated Brett Crozier and might even have ended up commending him) that Modly completely short-circuited, this claim is, to put it mildly, suspect.  Trump has followed up venting abuse upon the commander, with that happy combination of insolence and boorishness for which he is so celebrated.  Whether Modly acted on Trump’s orders or acted on his own initiative out of purely disinterested sycophancy remains uncertain, but there can be no doubt that Crozier has become yet another of the myriads sacrificed on the altar of Trump’s ego.

In Edwin Abbott’s classic Flatland, which describes a two-dimensional world in order to satirize the hierarchical nature of Victorian England, one of the last chapters provides a glimpse of yet another world, Pointland, in which an infinitesimal point is its sole inhabitant and monarch.  Since he is unable to see any other object and since the only voice he ever hears is his own, he naturally regards himself as the center of the universe and perceives any variety of communication as a thought originating in his own mind.  And that is a perfect description of Donald Trump:  he is the Man of No Dimensions.

Another tragedy in the midst of this crisis, though unrelated to the disease:  Maeve Kennedy McKean, granddaughter of Robert Kennedy, and her 8-year old son Gideon went on a canoe along the Chesapeake three days ago and have been missing ever since.  Apparently they went on the canoe simply to retrieve a ball that they were using for a game, but the wind or tide or both propelled the canoe from a shielded cove into the bay and at one point afterwards the canoe capsized.  They are now presumed dead.  The Chesapeake can get squally very quickly and quite unexpectedly.  It has proven deadly even to experienced boaters, and the winds were very strong this past Thursday.  David McKean, Maeve’s widower, is now left with two remaining children to bring up on his own. 

Royalty certainly has its uses.  Queen Elizabeth II has addressed the nation, trying to bolster the spirits of the British just as her parents did in World War II.  Indeed, she made reference to the first broadcast she did with her sister in 1940, as a reminder that Britons managed to overcome a great national and international crisis then and that they will be able to do so again.  She is still able, at the age of 93, to send out a message of encouragement and hope and strength of will.  Our own so-called leaders look pitiable in comparison with her.

New Orleans is now a major “hot spot.”  Its death rate is nearly 38 per 100,000 people, or twice that of New York City.  It is an unhealthy area to begin with; the residents have a higher-than-average incidence of obesity, diabetes, kidney problems, and heart disease. 

It’s hard on such a great number of people to miss out on the usual Palm Sunday traditions.  There are many merry and festive traditions that have had to be foregone this year.  It’s especially hard on the children who were looking forward to them.  Adults can say, “Well, at any rate there’s always next year,” but to a child a year seems like an obscenely long amount of time.  I am bound to say that the overwhelming majority of church leaders and congregations have been completely serious and responsible; difficult as it undoubtedly was for them to refrain from gathering together for one of the most important religious holidays of the year, they confined themselves to online services and masses.  Passover will be arriving in three days; will the fundamentalist Jews be just as foolish and self-centered as the evangelicals or will they behave more sensibly?  I have no worries about the others, incidentally, at any rate those residing in my own country.  They will not need much persuasion to shy away from synagogue services; the difficulty during normal times is to convince them to attend.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 1,272,115; # of deaths worldwide: 69,374; # of cases U.S.: 337,072; # of deaths U.S.: 9,619.  At this point the number of people affected by the virus is about one out of every thousand in the U.S.  The medical experts have warned the nation that the week to come will be a “week of woe,” with a greater increase of cases than we have seen to this point, though there are some hopes that after ten days or so the rate of increase will recede.

And in the meantime spring continues to advance with an appearance of cheerful indifference.  The grass is becoming greener and taller, the leaves of the trees are beginning to bud and unfurl; the bluebell is in flower.

Morning statistics – Personal under-estimates of speed and magnitude of virus – Spain – More states with stay-at-home orders – Fairfax County – Hospital care for people with issues other than COVID-19 – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 10:30 AM — # of cases worldwide: 1,139,207; # of deaths worldwide: 60,874; # of cases U.S.: 278,537; # of deaths U.S.: 7,193.  In the course of 24 hours the number of cases has increased by more than 100,000 and the number of deaths by more than 5,000.  More than 1,000 of these additional deaths are in the U.S. alone.

I suppose during every epidemic there are people who at first can’t believe what is happening and attempt to downplay its effects.  I plead guilty to that myself.  I didn’t write the matter off as a hoax, as certain somewhat more highly placed persons were known to do – our own President among them – but I certainly did not anticipate the scale it would acquire, nor the speed with which it would increase.  When LE persuaded the Capital Hiking Club to suspend the club hikes and the board agreed, I privately thought her apprehensions a bit overblown.  That was on March 14^th – less than three weeks ago.  Now I see that, if anything, she was showing a great deal of restraint in her predictions.  Influenza carries off, in very rough figures, about 55,000 people in the course of a year in this country.  The death count from the coronavirus has now surpassed 7,000, and this is only the beginning. 

It is said that Spain is approaching its peak.  Today there were 809 deaths – which sounds like an enormous number to me, but apparently it is the lowest Spain has had for a week. 

Alabama, Missouri, and Oklahoma have stay-at-home orders in effect.  The only states without them now are South Carolina, Utah, Wyoming, Arkansas, Iowa, Nebraska, North Dakota and South Dakota.  It is true that these states currently have a low incidence of cases and fatalities.  But that may change.

Some encouraging news, on a local level at least:  the number of cases in Fairfax County has risen by only 15, the lowest increase for the week. 

RK is feeling better, but her experience throws an interesting light on our hospital situation.  She has to undergo treatment for follow-up of the removal of certain cancer cells and the hospital has warned her that patients may have to wait in their cars until their names are called; they do not want to risk having several people sitting together in a waiting room.  Treatments for illnesses outside of the virus have been greatly complicated by the epidemic.

Today’s statistics as of 9:45 PM — # of cases worldwide: 1,201,591; # of deaths worldwide: 64,703; # of cases U.S.: 311,301; # of deaths U.S.: 8,476.  In a little over a week the number of cases in the U.S. has trebled.

Evening statistics – Increasing percentage of cases in U.S. – The advantages of travel on foot – The advisability of stay-at-home orders – The resolution of Governor Hogan – Restrictions on funerals – Lack of bread at stores

Today’s statistics as of 10:30 PM — # of cases worldwide: 1,039,166; # of deaths worldwide: 55,092; # of cases U.S.: 245,646; # of deaths U.S.: 6,068.  The number of active cases in China is now under 2,500, according to their statistics, which of course cannot be taken for gospel.  Spain has surpassed Italy in the number of cases.  And the mortality rate there is now quite high – over 9%.  Like Italy, it has a large elderly population and an overstrained health care system.  It has, in addition, high population densities in cities like Madrid, a pattern of social behavior that strongly encourages physical contact (kissing upon greeting is quite common), and numerous communal buildings; also, the health care system is very fragmented and decentralized, being run by several autonomous regions. 

The U.S. now accounts for a quarter of the cases worldwide.  The New York City area is the most greatly affected; the death toll there is over 1,500 (nearly 3,000 in the state at large).  Its morgues are full.

I had several errands to run today and I contemplated using the car, especially since I had hiked so much the day before.  But my fate was already decided for me:  there is construction on my street this week and the workers had blocked my driveway for the third day running.  I didn’t need to go anywhere on Wednesday, and yesterday I drove out before the construction workers arrived; but today I was forced to be active whether I desired it or not.  This is not necessarily a bad thing.

I hate to admit it, but people who are accustomed to doing the majority of their errands on foot have a definite advantage in times like these.  This morning I had to go to the Oriental market to pick up fresh fruits and vegetables and other items, to the bank to deposit a check from the IRS in my mother’s account, and to the pharmacy to pick up a prescription.  It was between 6 and 7 miles according to my cell phone app, which consistently underestimates distances and elevation gains – not a bad haul.  It was such a fine day, too, that it would have been a shame to waste it sitting indoors all the time.  Sunny, fresh, clear, brisk, and breezy – what could be better?

Dr. Fauci has said that at this point all states should have stay-at-home orders.  Currently 11 states do not:  Alabama, Missouri, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Utah, Wyoming, Arkansas, Iowa, Nebraska, North Dakota and South Dakota.  Of these, the first six contain individual regions that have such orders but also several regions that do not.  The latter five have no restrictions at all.

Larry Hogan, the governor of Maryland, has proven himself to be a man of some force of character.  Unlike other Republicans, he has not hesitated to criticize Trump for ignoring the crisis at the beginning and he is aggressively attempting to acquire test kits for the state from South Korea.  His wife, who is South Korean, negotiated directly with the South Korean authorities to obtain them.  Nor is he afraid to enforce his directives.  Already two people have been arrested for ignoring his orders restricting gatherings greater than ten persons. 

Funerals are now doubly tragic for families who have undergone a loss; now only ten people may be allowed to attend services and in any case it is impossible for most relatives to travel to participate in them. 

We are starting to feel the pinch here at several of the stores still open.  Today no bread was available at Panera’s; I will have to make my own.

Afternoon statistics – Hiking in Pennsylvania – Factors that increase risk – Brett Crozier commits the unforgivable offense of placing the safety of his men over Trump’s reputation – Medical supplies from Russia

Today’s statistics as of 4:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 1,011,490; # of deaths worldwide: 52,863; # of cases U.S.: 242,182; # of deaths U.S.: 5,850.  At this point we have broken several milestones, which most of us would have preferred to have remained intact:  the number of cases exceeds one million; the number of deaths exceeds fifty thousand; the number of cases in the U.S. exceeds two hundred thousand.

Virginia has 1,706 cases and 41 deaths; of these, Fairfax County has 328 cases and 5 deaths.  So it is coming close to home.

I went hiking on the Appalachian Trail in Pennsylvania today:  18 ½ miles, with about 3000 feet elevation gain.  (For those who wish to follow the route, I parked at the Rte. 225 parking area and did a there-and-back to the west end of the Clarke’s Ferry bridge over the Susquehanna.  This is about 15½ miles round trip, but on the way back I took the Susquehanna Trail to ascend the ridge and rejoin the AT, which cut off a mile.  When I reached the parking lot I went 2 miles in the other direction to the Table Rock overlook and then returned.)  Strictly speaking, I was in compliance with the stay-at-home order, which does allow people to get outside for exercise, but undoubtedly I was obeying the letter of the law rather than the spirit; I doubt if the Virginia governor would approve of my driving 2 ½ hours for this purpose.  I also was not obeying the recommendations of the Appalachian Trail Conservancy, but I rationalized that I was on a rather obscure part of the trail, not much used by other hikers.  And indeed I encountered very few on this segment, although, interestingly, some cars were pulling into the parking area just as I was leaving.  There is no question, however, that hiking up a steep ascent is an excellent way of maintaining one’s health.  I had started from Rte. 225 and as I went towards the bridge I was feeling a bit headachy and flagging in energy, but once I reversed direction and went up via the Susquehanna Trail I immediately felt much better. 

On the radio I heard a piece of news that was, from a purely selfish point of view, quite encouraging.  Over three-fourths of the fatalities occurred among people with underlying conditions such as diabetes, asthma, heart trouble, etc.  I don’t have any of these, so I am relatively low-risk, despite my age.  On the other hand, 20% of the people who contracted the virus are under 40, so I must not get over-confident.

Donald Trump has been tested a second time for coronavirus but it did not turn out happily.  He tested negative.

Captain Brett Crozier has been relieved of his command of the USS Theodore Roosevelt.  And what was his offense?  He made an appeal for the removal of the (roughly) forty-eight hundred crew members on the carrier because several tested positive for the virus and pleaded for them to receive medical attention.  That was bad publicity, you see, and of course we mustn’t have that.  Silly man – doesn’t he know that our President values his image far more than several thousand lives?

Russia has delivered several medical supplies to the U.S. and to New York in particular, where the medical facilities are very glad to get them.  There seems to be little chance of their getting adequate resources from the current administration.

Afternoon statistics – Inept national leaders – North Korea – Decline in acceleration – The selflessness of Giuseppe Berardelli – Potential loss of college football season – What goes into the making of a headline? – Tony Spell and Bel Edwards – Contrast of attitudes between Sweden on one hand and Malaysia and Vietnam on the other – Outbreak in a nursing home – The Hajj at risk

Today’s statistics as of 4:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 873,767; # of deaths worldwide: 43,288; # of cases U.S.: 189,633; # of deaths U.S.: 4,081.  Our President appears to be facing realities at last, although I must say that it’s bit late in the day.  He has warned the nation to expect between 100,000 and 240,000 deaths by the time the virus has finished its course.

I wonder what future historians will make of the abundance of national leaders in our time who are manifestly unqualified for their jobs.  There are the thoroughly vicious ones, such as Kim Jong-un, who not only trouble the outside world with their sable-rattling but who bear down on their own serfs – and there is no other word for them – with a rod of iron; there are the “practical” ones, such as Xi Jinping, who sacrifice thousands of citizens and pollute the environment with perfect obliviousness in their pursuit of wealth; there are the buffoons, such as Alexander Lukashenko, who without being actively malevolent manage to do a great deal of harm by a combination of over-weaning self-confidence, complete ignorance of the most basic tenets of science or economics, a constant need for attention as great as that of a spoiled nine-year old child, and unlimited power.  Trump definitely falls into this third category. 

North Korea claims to have no cases of the virus.  That is doubtful, to put it mildly.  It is probable, indeed, that the virus at present is far less prevalent than in China or South Korea.  North Korea has practiced self-isolation – quarantine, in fact – from most other nations for decades.  Still, such photographs and reports that emerge from that nation indicate that the virus is making the rounds; and with the country’s shattered medical care system and the number of North Koreans suffering from malnutrition, it seems probable that there will be considerable devastation in the weeks to come.

Some good news:  recently there has been a trend of deceleration in the number of new cases on a day-by-day basis.  From March 22^nd to March 30^th the increase in the number of new cases from the number of new cases of the preceding day has been:  3/23 – 789; 3/24 – 886; 3/25 – 2280; 3/26 – 3869; 3/27 – 1467; 3/28 – 761; 3/29 – 461; 3/30 – 384.  We may get to negative acceleration by the end of the month.

Since it sounds like I’ve been bashing religion in these notes I will mention an example of nobility inspired by religious faith.  Giuseppe Berardelli, an Italian priest serving in a small village near Milan, was greatly beloved by his congregation and when he contracted the virus they bought him a respirator.  He insisted, however, on giving the respirator away to a patient who was younger (he was 72) and struggling for breath on the grounds that this other person, whom he did not know at all, had a greater need than he did.  He did this knowing very well that such a deed might result in his death; and so it did.  Even though it was impossible under the current circumstances to hold a funeral for him, all of the inhabitants of the village mourned his passing.

If I contract the disease, I must bear in mind that I am 65 and have lived a full life, and that I must not take away resources from others who are afflicted and who have not yet had the opportunities to sample what life has to offer.  I sincerely hope that such fine-sounding resolutions never need be put to the test; but if the worst comes, may I have the strength of purpose to adhere to them.

Ironically these who are not felled by the disease are becoming healthier in general, on account of the absence of fast food and the greater reliance on biking and walking to perform errands.

The author of one article speculates that the coronavirus scare could cancel the American university football season.  What a boon that would be if so!  The college sports programs are not the only factor that is weakening our educational system, but they comprise a major one.  A university should be a place for study, not for playing games – at least, not for playing games as a major focal point.  Football as a leisure activity is fine.  Football as an alternative for concentrated intellectual effort is bad.  So it is with baseball, basketball, lacrosse, and so on.  These young men and women striving to be professional athletes at their colleges’ expense have badly diluted the quality of the average student on American campuses.  I can remember the days that I taught Freshman English at the University of Pennsylvania and was forced to attempt to instill the rudimentary principles of grammar to one player on the university basketball team.  He was not arrogant by any means; on the contrary he was very gentle, very anxious to please – but he simply did not belong on a college campus.  I took more pains with him than I would have done had he been conceited or assumed that he was entitled to special privileges on account of his position in a sports team; as it was, I spent hours trying to get him to understand such basic principles as parts of speech, tenses, gender.  It was a wasted effort.  Such concepts were beyond his powers of comprehension.  It was the same story in his other classes; he spent most of his classroom time in a state of fuddled bewilderment and was comfortable only on the playing field.  I sometimes wonder what became of him.  I can only hope that he connected with a capable, strong-minded woman who was able to look after the interests of this man-child.

Journalists sometimes have very peculiar ideas of what constitutes newsworthy items.  I’ve seen a number of articles devoted to the topic of John Cusack calling for Trump’s impeachment.  And who, a historian a century or so in the future may ask, is John Cusack?  A prominent Senator?  A state governor?  A Cabinet member?  None of these things – he is a movie actor!  Quite a good actor, for all I know, but nonetheless a man with no legal qualifications whatever.  I dislike Trump myself, as I’ve noted repeatedly, and I would gladly see him impeached and removed from office; but I would not expect these opinions of mine to be reported in the national news.

Tony Spell, a pastor in central Louisiana, persists in holding crowded church services, despite the order from Bel Edwards, the state governor, banning gatherings.  Edwards says that he has been “extremely patient” with the pastor and has made an appeal for “one more time:  please stop what you’re doing.”  In the same way, parents of spoiled brats persist in making idle threats of punishment that they are too faint-hearted to carry out and which, of course, the children completely ignore.  Why are priests and pastors handled with kid gloves?  If I were a governor and had issued an order banning gatherings, I’d go after anyone who defied it so brazenly, be he cleric or laic.  There seems to be hardly one governor in power who could make such a claim.

Here is a list of the current death rates in the top ten countries in terms of their overall population:  Italy, 0.0207%; Spain, 0.0193%; France, 0.0053%; UK, 0.0027%; Sweden, 0.0024%; Denmark, 0.0017%; USA, 0.0012%; Germany, 0.0010%; Norway, 0.0009%; Finland, 0.0003%.  Sweden, as can be seen, is fifth on this list.  Yet the Swedes continue to adopt a “business as normal” attitude.  There are prohibitions against gatherings of more than 50 and restaurants must seat people at tables rather than allowing them to sit at bars; but other than that, they are acting as if there is no threat at all.  I suppose that their government is doing an excellent job of reassuring them from fear; whether such a policy is conducive to overall national health (and international as well – after all, the virus does not recognize borders) remains to be seen. 

Incidentally, both in Malaysia and Vietnam the fear of contracting the virus runs very high indeed, and both countries have taken rigorous measures to contain it.  Malaysia has had 45 deaths so far (out of a population of 31 million people) and Vietnam has had none, so their reaction appears to have been a better approach than Sweden’s.  Malaysia has banned all sports, religious, social, and cultural activities, and everyone in the country appears to be in compliance.  This must be a fairly unusual example of fundamentalist Muslims showing much more restraint than fundamentalist Christians.

Another sad story:  Richard Bliss, 38, fell into despair as a result of the spread of the virus causing him to lose his job.  He shot his girlfriend four times, then turned the gun on himself.  He died, but happily the girlfriend managed to escape with a wound to the back and she is expected to survive.  The loss of my job at that age, with no immediate prospect of finding a new one, certainly would have depressed me; but I don’t believe I would have committed suicide.  But it’s so easy to pass judgment on someone else under such circumstances.  I am now financially secure, with the house paid off long ago and investment payments and pensions from corporations, with the prospect of getting Social Security as well in seven months.  I am well-aware that concern about money can lead people to do strange things.  I certainly feel less judgmental towards him than I do towards Tony Spell.

There has been an outbreak in a Maryland nursing home, brought in by an asymptomatic worker.  But how was he to know?  The home tested people by taking their temperatures whenever they entered the building.  Since he was asymptomatic, his temperature was normal.  Once he came into the building and made his rounds, the virus spread with astonishing speed and thoroughness.  Of the 95 residents, 77 tested positive for the disease.  Such situations are bound to become more common.  It could occur in the assisted living facility where my mother lives.  And the carrier might conceivably be me.

There is the possibility that the Hajj may be canceled.  Saudi Arabia has warned pilgrims to hold off on booking reservations, although it has not canceled the event just yet.  It takes place in July and August, and it is possible matters will be somewhat more settled then – though whether it will be prudent to set up an event involving 2 million people is still far from certain.  In general, the Muslim religious authorities seem to be showing a much greater sense of responsibility than the Christian ones, at any rate the evangelical Christian authorities. The Umra, a shorter holy expedition to Mecca that may be performed at any time in the year, has already been banned for the time being.