Month: May 2020

Morning statistics – The African nations amid the virus – Racial relations, then and now – Are our legal advances illusory? – Rioting in the cities – A day in spring – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 6,188,881; # of deaths worldwide: 371,442; # of cases U.S.: 1,817,409; # of deaths U.S.: 105,575.  Brazil’s case count has now surpassed the half-million mark and Russia’s case count is over 400,000.  For that matter, we are approaching an undesirable milestone of our own; in a couple of weeks our case count will probably surpass two million.  China’s case count is just over 83,000 but at this point it claims to have only 63 cases still active and only 3 of these are serious.  New Zealand at this point has one active case only. 

The African nations have been doing comparatively well, even though most of them have a higher level of poverty than in other regions.  A number of explanations have been suggested for this apparent paradox:  warmer weather (the greater part of the continent is in the equatorial region), a relatively young population, lower rates of obesity, familiarity in handling infectious diseases, etc.  The fact remains is that the hospital systems in African nations have not been overwhelmed the way that other countries have been in every other continent except Antarctica.  This is not to say that they have gone unscathed.  The resources diverted for the purpose of containing the virus put a strain on the capacity to combat other diseases.  Because of the disruption of the routine immunizations, as many as 80 million children are now at risk from diseases that could have been prevented by vaccines.  The lockdown restrictions have already taken their toll, and it is possible that over 60 million people will be driven into extreme poverty as a result.  So far, however, they have fared well in this crisis and most of the national leaders deserve credit for responding to threat of the virus effectively.

There are many riots going on all over the country on account of the murder of George Floyd – there is no other way to describe his death at the hands of the police.  I have alluded earlier to the unsatisfactory of racial relations in our country.  In expanding on the subject now, I do so by way of an episode that happened during my childhood; but in order to explain why it had the impact that it did I have to mention something of my background first.

I grew up in one of the numerous new suburbs being built in the Greater DC Metropolitan area during the late 50s and early 60s.  The houses that we and other moved into had just been built and everyone in the community was by definition a new inhabitant.  A few of the families in the area were black – not a great many, but there was a sufficient number to test the dispositions of everyone involved.  No one seemed to care very much.  Segregation was a meaningless word as far as my brother and I were concerned.  The children of all of the families went to the same schools.  An observer who saw children of different races at these schools playing together and, more importantly, studying together in communities such as ours might reasonably conclude that there was every hope for more harmonious racial relations in the rising generation. 

Children, of course, do not often realize that their circumstances are not universal and in some cases may not even be particularly usual.  At one point my parents took my brother and I on a road trip to visit our relatives in Miami Beach, FL.  As we traveled we stopped at a gas station to refuel and also to use the restrooms.  We went to the area indicated and there we were confronted by three doors with the following labels:

MEN                                   WOMEN                                                 COLORED

My brother and I couldn’t believe it.  We stared at the labels in mingled horror and fascination.  I was nine at the time and my brother was six, but we knew – instinctively, without prompting – that we were gazing upon a great evil.  But how was this possible, we asked, turning anxiously to our parents.  Surely there was a mistake somewhere.  And our parents had to tell us, sadly, that it was not only possible but quite a frequent occurrence in our country.  So we had to turn away, sad, frustrated, repelled, thoroughly infused with a sense of hopelessness.

Even more depressing was the realization that was thrust upon me some twenty years later:  that you soon get used to it.  When I began work as a technical writer for an engineering project I fell into conversation with one of the engineers, who was about my age and who had grown up in South Carolina.  I’m not sure how the subject came up, but in the course of our conversation I mentioned this episode and I was quite unprepared for the nonchalance of her reply.  “Oh, yes,” she said.  “That’s how things were.  I just made up my mind that whenever I left the house I would always use the bathroom first, so that I’d never have to use the public restrooms.”

It is not too much to say that I simply gaped at her.  And the reaction came:  of course, she did the right thing; how else do you deal with a situation like that?  It’s so difficult to imagine such a scenario:  knowing that every time you ventured out of doors you could be brought up against such a blatant reminder that there were people – and one’s own countrymen! – who looked upon you as sub-human.

Eventually, of course, the Jim Crow laws were overturned, the segregation in federal offices introduced by Woodrow Wilson (may his bones rot!) has been eliminated, and the justices of the Supreme Court actually managed to come to the astonishing conclusion, in the Loving vs. Virginia case, that the state has no business in interfering with two people who wish to marry.  Nowadays inter-racial marriage carries no particular stigma; on the contrary, mixed-race unions account for about 15% of marriages in the U.S. Theoretically, at least, the difficulties that confronted black men and women in earlier generations have been smoothed away.  And yet . . .

Various accounts have surfaced after the Amaury case and Floyd’s murder, discussing the difficulties undergone in the course of daily living as a black man or woman in the United States.  For example, one man, a university professor, was held by the police because someone had reported an assault and had given a rather unspecific description of the assailant’s physical characteristics.  Such scanty details that were given could have applied to him.  All very well so far; the police were bound to follow up any leads they had.  But they immediately set traps for him in the course of their interrogation.  At one point he was requested to produce identification.  Now if I had been in such a situation, I would automatically have reached into my pocket to produce the wallet containing my identification cards.  He, however, found it necessary to tell them, as a preliminary, “I will be obliged to reach into my pocket in order to produce what you need,”  and only after he had received explicit permission to put his hand in his pocket to draw out the wallet did he feel it safe to do so.  Had he not taken this precaution, he could readily have been accused of threatening the police – they might have claimed that they thought he was reaching for a weapon and thereby would have justified any amount of violence in continuing their interrogation. 

There is also the account of a white woman with a black husband who, like me, was reared to be perfectly unsuspicious and had to undergo a painful learning process of behaving in such a way as to give the police no excuse to pull them over while driving – making certain, for instance, that the license tags were up-to-date, whereas before her marriage she would not have been overly concerned if they had expired for a day or so.  But after her marriage she became very punctilious in such matters to ensure that the police would not be able to use a trivial traffic violation as an excuse to subject her husband to a cross-examination.

If accounts like these are to be believed, and they certainly seem plausible, black men and women must daily employ various defensive stratagems to prevent awkward confrontations with the police from arising, maneuvers that would never occur to me to use.  My black friends have not complained of such casual discrimination to me, but of course these issues are not likely to come up in casual conversation.  Probably, like my engineer acquaintance during the days of the Jim Crow laws, they regard such matters as the natural state of things and have gotten used to it.  I hesitate to ask them about it directly, for what is the use of making them uncomfortable?  Almost certainly they would shift about uneasily in response and ask me to change the subject. 

It would appear that, despite the legal changes, attitudes in the U.S. are not greatly in advance of what I witnessed in childhood.  Those labels that relegate black men and women to a separate bathroom may no longer exist, but there are only too many people who would be happy to restore them.  And their number seems to be growing daily.

The rioting will make matters still worse.  Whatever the root cause, the protests have become an excuse for unbridled looting.  Store owners have lost their entire stock in cities such as Los Angeles, San Francisco, New York, Philadelphia, Washington, Chicago, Seattle, Indianapolis, and Atlanta.  Violent encounters between the protestors and the police have become commonplace, and the National Guard has been called in to restore order in numerous neighborhoods.  Most of the cities are employing curfews. 

It seems so strange to read and hear reports about these things in an area where there is no hint of violence of any kind.  The weather was lovely today, in the mid-70s, not at all humid, with clear skies and sunlight shining through the chinks between the leaves of the trees.  It was a beautiful day in late spring, to all appearances peaceful and serene, without a suggestion of the violence just a few miles away or of the virus that it still ravaging the country.

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 6,262,422; # of deaths worldwide: 373,848; # of cases U.S.: 1,837,170; # of deaths U.S.: 106,195.  Peru has just surpassed Turkey in its case count and is now tenth on the list of nations with the highest counts.  Chile’s incidence rate is now over 0.5% (more than one in two hundred).  Mexico’s case count is also increasing exponentially; it is now fifteenth on the list. 

Shenandoah National Park revisited at last – Reminiscence of a winter hike – An adventure on the trails – Shopping for wine – News from my cousin – Plowing through Henry James – Milly Theale and Linnet Ridgeway – Derek Chauvin – Brazil – Evening statistics

I have been taking things fairly easily for the past several days.  It’s been quite a while since I’ve done a hike with more than 3000 feet elevation gain.  Today I got out of my rut and went to Shenandoah National Park to scout the hike that I am to lead on Tuesday.  Going to SNP was rather like seeing a long-lost friend again.  I haven’t been there for at least three months.  It has been closed for the past six weeks, of course, and even before that the Wanderbirds and Capital Hiking Clubs had suspended their hiking schedules.  The route I did today started at Little Hogback Overlook, where I took the Appalachian Trail to Elkwallow, backtracked to the Piney Ridge Trail, followed the Piney Ridge Trail and the Fork Mountain Trail to the Hull School Trail, used the Hull School Trail to ascend to the Keyser Fire Road, took the fire road to Little Devils Stairs, went up the “stairs” (as the very rocky river gorge is called) to the higher junction with the fire road, and took the fire road and the AT to return to Little Hogback:  about 15 miles in all, and perhaps about 3700 feet of elevation gain.

I have hiked in this particular area of the park so often that it is difficult to recollect all of the memories associated with it all at once, but there is one hike that I especially remember.  It was a hike with the Northern Virginia Hiking Club and it took place in winter, just after a fresh snowfall.  Part of the hike involved going over the Piney Ridge Trail, where the snow was about an inch or so deep – enough to smooth away the irregularities on the trail’s surface without being deep enough to impede progress.  No one had walked there since the snow had fallen and as a result it was unsullied, brilliantly white.  It was one of those days we frequently get in this area just after a snowfall completes and the precipitation moves away:  deep azure sky, with air like crystal, and the little bits of ice that form in the snow displaying opaline glints as the snow reflects the sunlight.  It was optimal weather for that time of year:  dry, clear, no wind, temperature in the mid-20s, sunlight untrammeled by clouds.

Not that today’s weather was anything to complain about.  It was a little cool and damp when I began (I started the hike before 8:00 AM) but it soon became clear and the temperature rose.  Even though the Blue Ridge Mountains are not very high, the difference in temperature between the area where I hiked and the lower elevations was at least 10 degrees.  It never went beyond the low 70s where I was hiking, and it was sunny as well.  Part of the Piney Ridge Trail was covered with pine needles, which is the best surface to hike on.  The hike was not without its share of adventure.  At one point in the Hull School Trail I had to cross Thornton River.  It was flowing very swift and deep, and I had not thought to bring water-shoes with me.  (I will remedy this omission on Tuesday.)  The only alternative to fording the stream without water-shoes was to use a blowdown that had fallen across the stream.  My boots had picked up a great deal of moisture by the time I had reached the river and the tree trunk was moist as well, so I could not rely on my boots having sufficient traction.  I sat down on the trunk and shimmied across instead.  It was not easy; the trunk proved to be quite slippery and it contained little branches which, although they had been trimmed to some extent, had to be scrambled over or around.  Once I got past that obstacle and went to the Little Devils Stairs Trail, I had to navigate several stream crossings as well, but these were relatively easy for those who didn’t mind getting their feet wet.

On the way back I went to the wine store, since I was down to my last bottle in stock.  The store was not at all crowded.  When I went to the cashier only one customer was ahead of me and a second cashier beckoned me to come to her aisle instead.  I picked up twelve bottles in all, enough for at least two months.

I also heard from my cousin, who has looked over this diary now that it has become a blog and is available online.  He had a correction to make:  he said that his illness never reached the point that he was contemplating hospitalization, as I had mistakenly thought earlier.  That was certainly good to hear.  He now sounds thoroughly well again.  He does tell me, however, that even though his case was officially a “mild” case, the experience was quite alarming at times – which was no surprise to me, for the case had been the same with my friends PF from Capital Hiking and BL from Vigorous Hikers.  We were in agreement that we are in no particular hurry as far as the re-opening schedules are concerned.  If the country has managed to contain the virus to some extent we have no desire to see this work undone.

After the hike and the shopping excursion afterwards I felt entitled to some less strenuous activity, and so I settled down with The Wings of the Dove.  But perhaps the exertions of the hike and the pleasurable consciousness of having been active did not put in me in a favorable state of mind for this sort of entertainment.  At any rate my re-reading of the novel was somewhat disappointing.  I think Virginia Woolf got it right when she said, “There is a great flourishing of silk handkerchiefs and Milly disappears behind them.”  At any rate, despite James’ elaborate efforts to gain my sympathy for her and to convince me of her rare refinement, I do not like Milly Theale.

I can’t help remarking that the abominable princess myth, which has been a curse for American women for ages, is not, as some might believe, an invention of Walt Disney but has flourished long before his day and of course ever since.  James was evidently a subscriber to it, even though in his more lucid moments he can show some awareness of the harm it causes.  Maggie Verver and Madame de Vionnet seem to be posing on pedestals from the moment they enter the story, but they are shrinking violets in this respect in comparison with Milly.  Whenever the attention centers on her, we’re expected to see her in a kind of luminous haze, as a personification of a sort of divine excellence.  But if one strips her of the mountains of praise-laden paragraphs bestowed upon her by her author and concentrates on what she actually does, the picture becomes much less attractive.

I know, I know – she’s in a difficult situation.  She is quite alone.  She has lost all of her close relatives as the result of illness, including her third cousins on her mother’s side and even the family’s business acquaintances.  (OK, I’m exaggerating a little here.)  The immense wealth she has inherited isolates her to an even greater degree.  And it’s the first thing that people notice about her.  “She couldn’t dress it away, nor walk it away, nor read it away, nor think it away; she could neither smile it away in any dreamy absence nor blow it away with any softened sigh.  She couldn’t have lost it if she had tried – that was what it was to be really rich.”  James has been accused of being unduly obscure at times, but that is certainly blunt enough.

And of course she is ill.  Her illness is generally assumed to be tuberculosis, although James is never very clear on that point.  In general his later fiction is dogged by a lack of specificity which, though his admirers choose to present it as a mark of his unique intelligence, I find a crippling handicap.  Even if one doesn’t expect a chillingly clinical description like the description of Johann Buddenbrooks’ typhoid fever by Thomas Mann, one does ask for more than a few vague hints of disability and for one or two more symptoms than Milly’s anemia. It does seem possible, however, that she has heart trouble as well.  We first see her on the Brünig, one of the least demanding passes through the Swiss Alps.  I know people in their 80s who could traverse it with ease.  She attempts to go over a certain ascent, and her reaction alarms Susan Stringham.  She appears to be sitting perfectly motionless, perilously close to the edge of a cliff and for a moment Mrs. Stringham imagines that Milly is contemplating suicide.  Why does this particular fear take hold of her?  It is hinted that Mrs. Stringham’s alarm has been triggered by Milly’s physical reaction to the exertion of going up a cliff.  A little later we get confirmation that Milly’s health is not good:  she has been seeing a doctor and she is not altogether confident that he has told her everything she needs to know.  Later still, of course, she consults Sir Luke Strett in order to find out what exactly is wrong with her (he doesn’t tell her very much).

And finally, she is the object of a conspiracy.  Her English friend Kate Croy – almost the only friend of her own age that Milly has ever had – is secretly engaged to Merton Densher, a journalist.  Densher has a nodding acquaintance with Milly, having met her during a trip to the U.S. to write a series of articles about American life.  When Kate discovers that Milly is suffering a mortal illness and also that Milly finds Densher attractive, she conceives the idea of concealing her own engagement, arranging for Densher to marry Milly and thereby become Milly’s sole heir after she dies.  Unsurprisingly, given Milly’s frail state of health, the shock of the discovery of this plot by her best friend and by the man she imagines to be her own admirer proves to be fatal.

So if she is such a pathetic victim, why do I find fault with her?  Chiefly because she falls much too readily into the princess role thrust upon her by Susan Stringham (who explicitly describes her in such terms), taking up residence in a Venetian palace, setting up a quasi-court there, receiving homage from her visitors as if it were her due, and in general acting on the assumption that, as a great lady, she has a right to waste people’s time.   Densher, for instance, is dumbfounded when Susan Stringham, evidently acting on Milly’s orders (or at any rate Milly’s hints) tells him “What we hope . . . is that you’ll be faithful to us—that you’ve not come for just a mere foolish few days.”  He is sent almost into stuttering incoherence by the realization that neither Milly nor her faithful lieutenant can conceive the possibility that he might have work to do elsewhere and that it is financially out of the question for him to linger in Venice on a perpetual holiday to dance attendance on them: 

“The way smooth ladies, travelling for their pleasure and housed in Veronese pictures, talked to plain embarrassed working-men, engaged in an unprecedented sacrifice of time and of the opportunity for modest acquisition!  The things they took for granted and the general misery of explaining!” 

Although he might have been prepared for this earlier on, upon his first meeting with Milly after returning to England, when he explains to her that his holiday is over and that he has to resume his usual employment.  Milly’s reaction is:  “I’m sorry you had to take it . . . at such a different time than ours.  If you could but have worked while we’ve been working –“

Huh?  What did I miss?  Did Milly complete her master’s thesis while I was taking a bathroom break?  But, no . . . on flipping back through the pages I find that Milly has done nothing except attend several parties.  That is her definition of work. 

It is curious to go through Agatha Christie’s Death on the Nile after perusing The Wings of the Dove.  The resemblance between the plotlines of the two novels is marked, and must have been consciously established; indeed, Death on the Nile might be defined as a retelling of The Wings of the Dove.  Since, however, Death on the Nile is an Agatha Christie novel, the two conspirators take, shall we say, a somewhat more pro-active approach in their maneuvers to acquire the heiress’s money.  The odd thing is that, although Christie is much more explicit about the arrogance of her princess figure, Linnet Ridgeway is in every way a more sympathetic character than Milly.  She is basically well-meaning; her intentions towards others are benevolent most of the time.  If she stoops to stealing her best friend’s fiancé, she pays heavily for it afterwards; and we are made to feel that the penalty exacted from her is excessive.  Towards the end, also, Christie shows us that Linnet, dubbed by the newspapers as the girl who has everything, is in reality the girl who has nothing – nothing that matters, that is:  no parents, no siblings, no genuine friends, and as the events show, no real husband either.  In the final paragraphs one observer says of Linnet that “it didn’t seem fair, her having everything,” and his friend replies, “Well, it doesn’t seem to have done her much good, poor lass.”  Christie may be the lesser writer, but there is more pathos in that brief exchange than in all of the silk handkerchiefs James insists on flourishing.

Well, well – I seem to have gone far astray from the virus and its effects.  However, one is not obliged to think about COVID-19 all of the time, even in a journal.  Perhaps even Donald Trump has moments when he can divert his thoughts to other subjects.  Actually, there is no need for that “perhaps” in the preceding sentence, is there?  Surely he begrudges every second that is taken away from his ecstatic adoration of himself.

 Whatever else may be in store for Derek Chauvin, the man who choked the life out of George Floyd, he has already lost a wife through his ferocity.  Kellie Chauvin lost no time in filing for divorce, while she publicly issued a statement of condolences and bereavement for Floyd’s family.  In such a situation it seems likely that, in addition to any sympathy for the victim she might have, sheer prudence would dictate such a move.  Anyone who discovers that he or she has been married to a murderer is bound to think, “Will the next victim be me?”

Cases are going up precipitously in both Brazil and Russia.  They have left Spain, Italy, and the U.K. far behind.  The death toll of Brazil, in absolute numbers, lags behind only that of the U.S., the U.K., and Italy.  Brazil, of course, has more than three times the population of either the U.K. or Italy, so that the ratio of deaths to total population is considerably lower.  But at the rate Brazil is going, it will not be long before it surpasses either nation in this respect.  Solange Vieira, who leads the Superintendence of Private Insurance, linked to Brazil’s finance ministry and who helped reform the country’s pensions, observed that “It’s good that deaths are concentrated among the old. That will improve our economic performance as it will reduce our pension deficit.”  Which is a comfort, at any rate. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 6,150,262; # of deaths worldwide: 370,500; # of cases U.S.: 1,816,601; # of deaths U.S.: 105,551.

Morning statistics – Status of local stores – Plotting out a hike in Shenandoah National Park – Warming weather – Rioting in Minneapolis – Evening statistics – Ominous prognostics for Latin America

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 5,934,437; # of deaths worldwide: 362,713; # of cases U.S.: 1,768,608; # of deaths U.S.: 103,344. 

I went out today on what might be called a reconnaissance mission.  I visited the certain shopping malls about two miles away to see what stores would be open for me to patronize in the near future.  The answer, it appears is – not very much.  Even though department stores are permitted to open, none of the ones I saw were (although I did see employees inside the stores – perhaps they are preparing for opening within the next few days?).  None of the restaurants had any indoor dining, although I did see a few people eating out of doors at tables.  The shoe stores are still closed.  Several buildings are listed as being available for rent; evidently a number of businesses have not been able to survive the long hiatus. 

Afterwards I went to verify the location of various wineberry and blackberry bushes, which should start bearing fruit within the next couple of weeks.  The mulberries have already ripened but these are not worth gathering, being insipid to the point of tastelessness. 

Afterwards I plotted out the hike that I am to lead for the Vigorous Hikers this coming Tuesday.  It had to be modified from the route that we usually do.  At this point, although Shenandoah National Park is open, all hikes must begin and end at Skyline Drive.  Under ordinary circumstances we generally use trailheads outside of the park and enter across the park boundary, but currently we still do not have this option.  It is rather regrettable, since most hikes from Skyline Drive begin by going downward and end by returning upward, which is opposite from the order one would wish for a hike.  This hike in particular will end with going up the Little Devils Stairs Trail, which is one of the more arduous ascents in the park.  I will be scouting the hike tomorrow just to ensure that the trails on our route are all open and that there are no unpleasant surprises awaiting us. 

It was very warm today, not unpleasantly so; but we are coming to the beginning of the more torrid time of the year.  July and August are the most difficult times of the year to hike in this area; even in the highest and shadiest elevations one has to be on the lookout to avoid dehydration.  Eventually we will be reaching the point when we can relax in various swimming holes along some of the wider streams.  They may be the only places where swimming is available, at any rate for the near future; the public pools will not be opening for some time to come.

More news from Minneapolis.  The policeman who killed George Floyd has been identified.  His name is Derek Chauvin, and he has been placed under arrest.  It is relatively rare for officers to be held accountable for deaths that occur during arrests; but in this case the evidence is unequivocal.  Rioting  has been searing the city for three days, prompting its mayor to impose a curfew from 8:00 PM onwards through the night under 6:00 AM the following morning.  As might be expected, Trump’s idea is to stoke the fire rather than contain it; he has tweeted that the rioters should be shot.  Both the mayor of the city and the state governor are understandably exasperated by the actions of a president that, instead of helping them out, make matters worse. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 6,026,107; # of deaths worldwide: 366,415; # of cases U.S.: 1,793,263; # of deaths U.S.: 104,539. It has taken a mere 11 days for the case count to increase by one million.  As the virus expands through Latin America, we are beginning to see how vulnerable Third World nations are to crises such as these.  In Europe, Canada, the United States, Australia, New Zealand, and some of the wealthier Asian countries such as Taiwan, it is feasible to recommend keeping shopping trips down to a minimum.  But how is it possible to ask a family to shop no more than once every 5-7 days if they have no means of refrigeration?  The hospital systems in countries such as Spain were overwhelmed.  But Spain is relatively wealthy compared with many Latin American and South American nations.  And the conditions of poverty are aggravated by the number of people who have been forced to stop working as the virus continues.  Moreover, the winter season is approaching in South America.  The virus tends to be more active in cooler temperatures.  Already Brazil’s case count and death toll have been steadily increasing relative to North American and European countries, while Peru and Chile are now respectively eleventh and thirteenth on the list of countries with the highest case counts.

Morning statistics – Trump vs. social media – Russian health care workers – Russian nursing homes – Who needs pants? – Racial relations unraveling – Will the handshake become obsolete? – Lightening of restrictions in Northern Virginia – Dinner at home – Ted Cruz defends his father’s defamer – Brett Crozier again – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 5,819,274; # of deaths worldwide: 358,017; # of cases U.S.: 1,746,335; # of deaths U.S.: 102,116. 

I didn’t scan through the news yesterday and now that I’ve gone through it today I almost wish that I had remained in a state of happy ignorance.  The more of it I read, the more depressed I get.  President Trump has threatened to shut down various social media.  Trump, as is very well-known, has been using Twitter continually, far more often than any other prominent politician.  But Twitter has recently issued a fact-checker that appends labels for new tweets, which is considered to be exercising an editorial function.  “The law still protects social media companies like @Twitter because they are considered forums not publishers,” said Mario Rubio, Trump’s staunch ally. “But if they have now decided to exercise an editorial role like a publisher then they should no longer be shielded from liability & treated as publishers under the law.”  And what sort of forum did he use to issue this statement?  Twitter, of course!  Consistency, thou art a jewel; but thou are not likely to adorn Trump’s self-created tiara.

Russia health care workers are facing a challenge unknown to those in the U.S.  In the U.S., the health care workers have generally been lauded as heroes during this crisis.  In Russia they have been treated with fear and disdain; many see them as collaborators with the state in restricting their freedom.  In the meantime thousands of Russian health care workers have contracted the virus.  Official reports say that about 100 workers have died from the virus, but an unofficial tally compiled by the health care workers themselves concludes that over 300 have already succumbed. 

The low death count from the virus in Russia is in part explained by the fact that Russia counts only those who died from the virus directly and not cases in which the virus accelerated other factors.  This effect has been demonstrated by several nursing homes, where the virus has swept through and claimed hundreds of victims; but only a fraction of them are listed as having died from the virus.  In addition, the nursing homes are under pressure to conceal their losses, out of fear of prosecution for negligence.

An odd item from Taneytown, MD:  it seems that some residents have gone walked to their mailboxes and collected their mail without putting on their pants first.  Indecent exposure, in Maryland, is defined as intentionally showing one’s genitals in public, so it is perhaps not surprising that this habit spurred the police to issue a public warning to citizens on its Facebook page.  The good citizens of Taneytown did not respond with the gravity that the police appear to believe such an offense should warrant.  Many posted replies containing facetious GIFs, such as the one showing Winnie the Pooh dancing, captioned “Life’s too short for pants.”

Protests have been disrupting Minneapolis after the death of George Floyd.  He was arrested on a charge of fraud, but there was no sign of his resisting the arrest.  Nonetheless one of the policeman put a choke-hold on him for more than seven minutes, ignoring his cries that he was unable to breathe.  Afterwards a call was made for medical assistance, but Floyd eventually died on his way to the hospital.  This comes after the Ahmaud Arbery murder:  a black man jogging who was shot by Gregory and Travis McMichael, a father-and-son team, while a third man aided and abetted them by driving along and interposing his vehicle wherever Arbery turned to escape his hunters.  William Bryan, the driver, was sadistic enough to videotape the encounter and idiotic enough to post his video to the public.  The three were eventually arraigned, but it took more than two months for charges to be brought against them; the trial has not yet taken place.

The simple handshake may become a casualty of the virus.  Dr. Fauci, for instance, has stated that we should forego this habit to prevent spreading not only the COVID-19 virus but other communicable diseases as well.  Whether this is so or not, we undoubtedly are going to be more wary of touching one another, even after the pandemic is over. 

It was wet this morning, but the rain cleared up by the early afternoon.  It was a little humid but not oppressively so, and there were occasional breezes that prevented one from getting overly heated.  I confined myself to walking locally.  Most of Virginia has already undergone Phase One of the re-opening, but the counties within the Greater Metro area of DC have delayed matters slightly.  Restrictions are starting to ease up now.  There was a little more activity in the city today.  Cafés and delis are open.  They were not doing what I would call a thriving business but they did have some customers.  A couple of them had tables for outside dining, and a few of these were occupied.  People are gradually renewing their outside activities.  Restaurants will be open tomorrow if they confine themselves to 50% seating capacity.  The same is true of retail stores.  Salons, barbershops, and spas will be available by appointment only, and both the employees and the customers must wear masks. 

Today’s dinner, if I may so, was good:  cioppino, with zucchini, rice, cherries, and bread, which I made from the sourdough starter.  The bread came out quite well, but it did not have the distinctive sourdough taste.  The starter is a couple of weeks old, so it should have developed that flavor by now.  We will see if it develops the characteristic winy taste eventually.

Ted Cruz has gotten into trouble – or, more accurately, has stumbled into it – by trying to encourage a reporter to pursue Donald Trump’s far-fetched conspiracy theories about his predecessor, Barack Obama.  Curiously, Trump had floated another conspiracy theory in 2016, when he and Ted Cruz were rivals for the Republican nomination, about Rafael Cruz being involved in the assassin of President Kennedy in 1963.  Now Cruz has become Trump’s ardent partisan, even though the latter has attempted to defame Cruz’s own father.  What love potion has Trump fed Cruz and his like to deprive them of their wits?

Admiral Mike Gilday, the chief admiral of the Navy, received a report from the internal investigation about the debacle of the USS Roosevelt.  This report was demanded by James MacPherson, the acting Navy secretary, after receiving a recommendation that Crozier be restored to his command but who decreed that a report was necessary to address some unanswered questions.  Now MacPherson himself is on the way out, being replaced by Kenneth Braithwaite.  After the report is reviewed by Braithwaite he will send it on to Defense Secretary Mark Esper for yet another review.

It took only a day for an incompetent, corrupt, and foul-tongued bureaucrat to fire Crozier for taking his responsibility towards his crew seriously; and at this rate it will take months to restore him.  If, indeed, that ever happens.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 5,900,627; # of deaths worldwide: 361,773; # of cases U.S.: 1,768,218; # of deaths U.S.: 103,329.  Brazil’s case count and death toll are now both over one-quarter of that of the U.S.  And that’s assuming that the figures are accurate, which almost certainly is not the case. 

Morning statistics – Increased activity of birds – Prognostics of economic depression – Possible after-effects of the virus – A social visit – Working on the blog – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 5,715,075; # of deaths worldwide: 352,901; # of cases U.S.: 1,727,686; # of deaths U.S.: 100,625. 

It is another beautiful day.  I do not know whether I am imagining it, but it seems to me that the birds have been more active than usual this year.  Every time I have gone out for the past two months I have heard them singing vigorously.  During yesterday’s hike they are especially vociferous.  Perhaps I am simply more attuned to them because there is less traffic noise outside. 

The DOW opens today after the Memorial Day Weekend. MC, who is an investment counselor, says that the market is over-valued and has been over-valued for a long time.  I asked about the effects of the economic activity that will occur once all lockdown restrictions have been lifted.  I was doubtful that all of the jobs that have placed on hiatus were recoverable.  He said that 85% recovery is an optimistic estimate, and even at that we would be headed for a significant recession, worse than the one in 2008.  The stock market appears to be betting heavily on the discovery of a vaccine, but even if we get one several jobs simply are going to disappear, particularly in the service industries. 

It is interesting to speculate on the long-term effects of the lockdown.  Now that tele-commuting has been in effect for several weeks, it will become more common in firms that previously relied on employees coming in person to office buildings.  Industries such as legal consultation, investment firms, information technology, and so on, will continue to use to a greater extent than before.  This practice in turn may have a beneficial impact on traffic, which has been a steadily growing problem in many cities.  Air travel, on the other hand, may become more difficult.  Various local carriers will have a difficult time recovering from the long hiatus of people travel both for business and for pleasure.  Services to mid-sized cities such as Sacramento, Birmingham, Cedar Rapids, Syracuse, etc., will probably diminish.

I visited my friends DC and JC again today.  Sometimes when I look at the newspaper articles and compare them with my own life it appears to me as if I’m living in a completely different world.  I suppose sordid behavior makes for more exciting journalism than good nature, upright character, and vigorous intelligence do but – even so.  The friends I have managed to acquire seem to me light years away from the squalid avarice and impenetrable arrogance of our so-called leaders.  This is not merely my own assessment.  When my relatives met some of those who showed up at my father’s funeral they exclaimed to me afterwards, “What nice friends you have!”  How I managed to be so fortunate in this respect I do not know.  The manner in which we spent the afternoon together might not seem very exciting to an outsider, and yet it was extremely pleasurable.  I brought along some brownies made with almond flour – it’s been a long time since I’ve had the opportunity to bake for anyone; we chatted over some tea JC obtained from Taiwan (her home country); we went into the garden, where JC showed me how the bamboo shoots were coming up – she provided me with some before I left; DC and I strolled about together; we dwelt on various memories of the past and also on hopes about the eventual lifting of the restrictions and the restoration to normality.  After that I simply was not in the mood to scan the Internet for news after I returned home. 

I am trying to post these notes onto a blog but I’ve been having trouble with the blog software; so DC, who has worked with blogs himself, gave me some pointers about the issues that were giving me trouble.   I will be working on these tomorrow and I hope to have my blog ready for viewing some time tomorrow.  It’s supposed to rain off and on, so it should be a good day for working on setting the blog up.

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 5,788,312; # of deaths worldwide: 357,406; # of cases U.S.: 1,745,803; # of deaths U.S.: 102,107. 

Social hiking again – Great Falls – The protective dog-owner – Virginians to wear masks indoors – Reports from Latin America – Evening statistics

Today I was with the Vigorous Hikers.  We hiked together this time rather than going at different paces, or if we got separated we waited at various junctions.  There were many turns to make during the route and it is necessary to keep together to ensure that no one got lost.  BF, who is a surgeon, appeared to be relatively unconcerned about the virus.  He said that the great majority of deaths, at least in Virginia, have occurred among people with underlying conditions, obesity and diabetes being two of most pertinent factors.  That was reassuring to an extent, but only to a certain extent.  As MC pointed out, caution has to be exercised when dealing with the unknown.  He gave as an instance the story of what happened to his son while staying at camp.  A bat had entered the son’s room when he was asleep, and when MC made inquiries he learned that if the bat had rabies and if the bat had bitten the young man or even if the young man had breathed in droplets exuded by the bat, he could contract rabies as well; and rabies from bats can be fatal.  The treatment was expensive, painful, and time-consuming; but MC would take no chances – the uncertainty factor was too great.

It was a lovely day, warm but not overly hot and not humid.  In the shade it was delightful.  It feels so good to have seasonable weather at last after this long period of cool and wet days.  We hiked in the Great Falls area, which is now open to the public.  Nonetheless we started from the parking area which I had scouted the previous week.  The lines for entering the park tend to be long and especially at this time of year, just after Memorial Day.  Actually there were not many people on the trails when we began our hike (we started a little before 8:00 AM) but after we had gone along the Matildasville Trail past the Visitor Center and covered several miles in Riverbend Park, we encountered numerous visitors upon our return via the River Trail.  We also went to the confluence of Difficult Run and the Potomac, where to our surprise we found some people swimming.  The Potomac is very swift and has deep currents; they were staying in the area where Difficult Run drains into the Potomac, which is somewhat calmer, but it was still a risky thing to do.  It was a splendid day, covering over 16 miles and perhaps 1500 feet of elevation gain.  We all moved swiftly and returned to our cars will before 2:00.

An episode occurred in Central Park today that illustrated both the poor state of racial relations in our country and the overweening arrogance of dog-owners.  A black man was strolling through the Ramble in Central Park where a white woman was allowing her dog to roam freely, although there are signs everywhere stating that dogs have to be leased.  The dog tearing through the various plantings placed in the park for replenishment and racing after any wildlife that caught its fancy.  The woman was of course looking on indulgently and never doubting that all passersby felt a reciprocal enjoyment.  So when he requested her to put her dog on a leash she refused, immediately whipping out her cell phone to call the police to complain that a black man was molesting her.  That turned out to be a costly mistake.  As it happened, he videotaped the incident and posted it, where it immediately went viral.  She was an employee of Franklin Templeton, an investment firm, and when the incident came to their attention they promptly fired her.  So justice was done for once, but it will have little impact on dog-owners who persist in treating their pets like spoiled children.

Governor Northam has announced that Virginians are to wear masks on public transportation and in public indoor places such as retail stores.  Compliance is voluntary, since the governor says that criminal prosecutions will not be made against those who fail to observe the guideline. 

Formerly the discouraging reports came chiefly from Europe; now Latin America is becoming the focus of unwelcome attention.  The number of new cases in Brazil, Peru, and Chile has accelerated.  Chile’s case incident rate is already over 0.4%, about one case in every 250 of the nation’s population.  Two prominent members of the Chilean government have tested positive for the virus.  Peru had taken several precautions and at the onset appeared to have the virus under control, but the ubiquitous crowded outdoor food markets and the fragility of their medical care system defeated all of their preventative measures.  It is now twelfth on the list of nations with the highest case counts.  The travel ban for people from Brazil entering the U.S. goes into effect tomorrow; Americans currently in Brazil are frantically scrambling to get out while there is still time.  Brazil has had more deaths today than the U.S.  It may lose as many as 125,000 by early August. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:30 PM — # of cases worldwide: 5,678,021; # of deaths worldwide: 351,667; # of cases U.S.: 1,725,150; # of deaths U.S.: 100,579.

Morning statistics – Donald Trump and social distancing – Sa’di’s advice to rulers – Sad news from the U.K. – Plight of Mexico City – Aftermath of Memorial Day festivities – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 5,525,299; # of deaths worldwide: 347,114; # of cases U.S.: 1,686,807; # of deaths U.S.: 99,311.  Russia’s case count continues to increase and the number of its cases still active is second only to the U.S.  The mortality rate has risen slightly, but it is still low – slightly over 1%.  It has been estimated that its medical workers are 16 times more likely to die than their counterparts in other European countries. 

Deborah Birx has stressed to journalists that there is clear scientific evidence that facemasks are an effective prophylaxis for the virus.  When she was thereupon asked why President Trump refuses to wear one whenever he goes out in public, she assured her interviewer that he is “able to maintain social distancing.”  And indeed, I don’t see why anyone would go nearer than six feet to Donald Trump if he can possibly help it.  Living as I do within 20 miles of his proximity is punishment enough.

In this indulgent mood towards our esteemed leader I must protest against the criticisms some have directed at Trump for enjoying a game of golf during the Memorial Day Weekend.  The man is entitled to his relaxations like everyone else.  There are other considerations besides.  “An unjust king asked a holy man, saying. ‘What is more excellent than prayers?’ He answered: ‘For you to remain asleep ’till mid-day, that for this one interval you might not afflict mankind.’”  (Sa’di, Gulistan)  Trump, as I noted earlier, is well past 70 and doubtless spends fewer hours in sleep than he did during the days of his youth; but a game of golf will answer the purpose just as well.

I received a sad Email from a friend in Great Britain.  He has lost several friends in the course of four weeks:  one from a cancer that had previously gone undetected, one from a fall, one from a brain tumor, one from pancreatic cancer, and one from an auto accident.  Even though none of these are attributable to the virus, the conditions created by the pandemic make matters even more stressful for mourners than usual.  He has been permitted to attend only one of the funerals, and funerals are not allowed to include a wake or any kind of physical contact.  There is need for a great deal of caution in the U.K., which has one of the highest mortality rates in the world:  14% of its cases have been fatal, and only Spain and Belgium exceed it in the proportionate number of deaths for the country’s population.

Mexico City has issued over 8,000 more death certificates than the average for the same period in the past this year.  They may not all be due to COVID-19, but this figure suggests that the number of deaths due to the virus is seriously under-reported.  The number of deaths from the virus for the entire country is reported at less than 7,500.  Mexico has one of the lowest numbers of tests per population globally, which means that a significant number of people could have the virus without being aware of it.

Memorial Day weekend is over, and now it will be seen whether its celebrations have impeded the decline in the spread of the virus.  There have been crowds at numerous beaches, in Florida in particular, and at the Lake of the Ozarks, where tourists flooded restaurants and bars, as well as in the lake itself, with no attempt at social distancing.  St. Louis and Kansas City both have residents with vacation homes there, and when they return to these two cities the number of cases is almost certain to surge.  In this area, at least, celebrations were muted, but there were still several large gatherings here and there.

Today’s statistics as of 8:30 PM — # of cases worldwide: 5,584,211; # of deaths worldwide: 347,613; # of cases U.S.: 1,706,226; # of deaths U.S.: 99,805.  The number of deaths worldwide appears to be decreasing, so that is to the good.  Brazil is steadily gaining.  Its case count went up by nearly 3.5% today, as opposed to our 1.1% increase.  Chile is also having difficulties, despite having the best economy of all of the South American nations.  Its healthcare system is under strain from the 70,000 virus cases In Russia, Moscow has a strict lockdown.  People have to download a QR “pass” onto their phones if they want to go more than 100 yards from their homes.  Police are monitoring the streets to ensure that people don’t travel beyond prescribed limits and cameras are tracking drivers to verify that they are on the routes that they declared they were going to take when they downloaded the pass.  This is quite an ominous development inasmuch as the Russian government is learning a great many lessons in how to employ technology to ensure authoritarian control. 

Morning statistics – Unreliable CDC data – Memorial Day – Eid al-Fitr – Lockdown easing in Europe – Fairfax City pending the release of the stay-at-home order – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 5,429,234; # of deaths worldwide: 344,488; # of cases U.S.: 1,667,284; # of deaths U.S.: 98,691.  The U.S. at this point has nearly 40% of the active cases worldwide.  We have joined that undesirably exclusive club of nations whose case incidence is more than 0.5%, or one in two thousand, Spain and Singapore being the two others, as well as various microstates (San Marino, Qatar, Andorra, Luxembourg, Mayotte, Bahrain, and Iceland). 

For all of the criticism directed at data collection from other countries, and from third-world countries in particular, our home-grown data collection may not be very reliable either.  Recently it has been reported that the CDC has been conflating the results from the viral tests and the results from the antibody tests.  A negative result has a different meaning for each test.  Anyone who gets a negative result from the viral test is not currently infected with COVID-19; anyone who gets a negative test result from the antibody test has probably never been infected.  In addition, the antibody tests tend to be less accurate on an individual level.  The skewed metrics that result are more than simply a theoretical error; state governors have been using them to determine their policies for re-opening guidelines.  At the very least the CDC has been over-stating our ability to test people who are sick with COVID-19.  The results from the antibody test drive down the positive rate, which means that our nation’s case count may be under-reported as badly as many other countries. 

It’s Memorial Day weekend, and many beaches, boardwalks, and other attractions are just as crowded as they might be any other year.  Some restrictions are still being enforced in this area.  The Memorial Day Parade through DC has been canceled, and the Memorial Day Concert is available through livestream only.  The Rolling Thunder event has been canceled, although a few thousand riders have been rolling through anyway.  Many of the motorcycle drivers who would ordinarily be here are restricting themselves to riding through their local communities instead.  Arlington Cemetery is allowing pass holders only to enter its grounds.  DC remains a “hot spot” as other areas are showing declining rates of infection; the number of new cases each day is sporadic, sometimes going up, sometimes going down. 

Today is the first day of Eid al-Fitr as well.  Many Muslims are spending this day under strict stay-at-home orders.  It’s a melancholy way of celebrating what is usually the most joyous of holidays.  In Turkey a lockdown has been imposed for the entire weekend.  Saudi Arabia and Egypt, two of the Mideast region’s nations hit hardest by the virus, have implemented overnight curfews.  Mosque services have been canceled in many countries, and homes are confining their festivities to immediate family members only.  Not all of the countries with Muslim majorities are showing such restraint.  In Amman, Jordan, queues of people swarmed the bakeries and nut retailers (sweetmeats and nuts are used in large amounts for the usual festivities) as if the virus did not exist.  Mosques have been closed in Iran, but prayers are allowed just outside the mosque buildings, provided that social distancing guidelines are observed.  Pakistan has recently lifted various lockdown restrictions and has only the usual guidelines; no special precautions are being enforced.  Worshippers in countries such as Sudan, Indonesia, Afghanistan, and Israel have been congregating in crowded mosques without any regard for the guidelines for social distancing.  It must be added that the incidence rate in all of these countries is relatively low.

Lockdown restrictions are gradually being lifted in various European countries.  The details are too numerous to be listed here, but in general terms:  border controls have been relaxed, shops have been allowed to re-open, people may attend funerals (but only 15 for any single interment), visitors are permitted to go to beaches, social visits to other households are permitted, restaurants under certain conditions can allow dining again, some museums are now accessible, religious services are no longer livescreen only. 

It will be a few days still before similar restrictions are lifted here.  I went through downtown Fairfax today, and it had surprisingly few people for a weekend, and especially for a Memorial Day weekend.  Restaurants still are not allowed to have diners on the premises but the take-out places (Subway, Potbelly, etc.) are operating on more or less the same basis as before.  Still – the city under ordinary circumstances would be bustling at this time of year. 

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 5,497,650; # of deaths worldwide: 346,675; # of cases U.S.: 1,686,436; # of deaths U.S.: 99,300.  Brazil’s case count continues to go up even relative to our own.  President Trump has banned travel from Brazil into the U.S., and although I do not in general share his opinions, in this case I find myself in the disagreeable position of approving his decision.

Morning statistics – End of Ramadan – Eid al-Fitr – Ending the stay-at-home orders – Shenandoah National Park – Warm weather at last – A productive day – Re-opening of local parks – Culinary pleasures – Brazil is the country of the future, and always will be – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 5,329,722; # of deaths worldwide: 340,537; # of cases U.S.: 1,645,646; # of deaths U.S.: 97,663. There is a kind of seesawing between Russia and Brazil at this point.  Russia’s case count has shot up again, inching it over Brazil’s.  That will change again by the end of the day.  There is one mitigating factor for Brazil and for Latin America generally:  the average age of the population is considerably lower than that of Europe or the U.S.  Younger people have more resistance against the disease, which means that the mortality rate should be lower.  But that won’t do much good if the case count continues to multiply the way it is currently doing.  The African nations are doing much better in containing the disease.  South Africa has the highest case count of the African countries, and it is only 35^th on the list, with barely over 20,000 cases, and its number of active cases is already beginning to decline. 

Ramadan ends at sunset today, and tomorrow will begin Eid al-Fitr, the three-day holiday that marks the breaking of the month-long fast.  Usually this festival is marked by going to mosques to pray together and to greet friends there, as well as parties (frequently quite lavish ones) with a great deal of feasting.  Attention is focused on children, who usually get gifts of new clothes, shoes, and cash, so naturally they look forward to the holiday for the greater part of the year.  As with the Easter and Passover celebrations, all of this will have to be modified.  The holiday will be something of a test for the countries with Muslim majorities as to how they are handling the pandemic; but in general they seem to be acting much more prudently than the predominantly Christian ones.  The Hajj begins on July 28^th, but Saudi Arabia has not yet ruled out canceling it – which is quite a sacrifice, considering that the influx of visitors to the Hajj accounts for 5% of its GNP. 

Dr. Fauci announced that it is now time for the stay-at-home orders to lift and that prolonging them to undue length can do as much damage as ending them too soon.  States have been easing the restrictions, for the most part gradually.  Today Shenandoah National Park has re-opened to a certain extent.  Hikes must begin from Skyline Drive; parking is still shut off from the boundary trailheads.  Old Rag and its associated trails, and the Whiteoak Canyon/Cedar Run loop with its associated trails are still off-limits.  All other facilities, including visitor centers, picnic areas, campgrounds, lodges, gift shops, and restaurants are closed. But all trails except the ones mentioned above and all overlooks are open.

The forecast for today couldn’t have been more mistaken.  The rain passed away yesterday and the temperature rose, making today the first really warm day for about two months.  I wished to mow the lawn but the grass was too wet in the morning for that.  So I went to the Workhouse art studio complex, picked up the Cross-County Trail from there, went south to Occoquan Regional Park and went on the loop around there, went north to Laurel Hill Park, did the loop around Giles Run, and then returned to the Workhouse – perhaps nine miles in all.  There is a great deal of vetch in the area; from its purple color and smooth stem, as well as its proximity to land that once belonged to a farm, my guess is that it is cow vetch.  After I returned home and had lunched, I mixed the ingredients for a lamb and lentil stew, put it on low heat to simmer gently, mowed the lawn, took the stew off of the heat, and refreshed the sourdough starter that had been in the refrigerator for several days and was starting to separate.  Not an exceptionally busy day, but a reasonably productive one.

People are becoming less cautious.  I wore a mask while I was in Occoquan Regional, which I knew would have several visitors; but I was one of the few who did.  And when I left the park I took off my mask as well.  I encountered hardly anyone during the remainder of my route.  For local walking I still am wearing the mask continually.

Many local parks are open now.  The parking area at Occoquan Regional had several cars and I saw as I drove past it that Burke Lake is open.  That means that all of the ingenious routes I worked out to circumvent the entrance closures are unnecessary now.  But every silver lining has its cloud.

Making a stew is satisfying.  One is not bound to a specific recipe but can toss in as many different vegetables and roots as he likes, as well as any combination of herbs, and it can provide a balance of protein, starch, and carbohydrates in a single dish, making it sufficient for an entire meal.  It’s economical as well.  I used a pound of meat for the stew, and I will have enough dinner for three days, perhaps even four. 

“When the biggest science denier in the country is the president himself, what can we scientists do?”  This remark may sound like another complaint against Donald Trump but it actually comes from Brazil.  Brazil’s case count has surpassed Russia’s again.  The disease is sweeping the favelas, which account for more than eleven million people.  In Rio de Janeiro alone they comprise nearly one-quarter of the population.  It seems almost frivolous to recommend social distancing in areas where the population density is about 100,000 per square kilometer.  The only way people in these areas can quarantine themselves from their neighbors is vertically.  One person who experienced difficulty in breathing, expired in one of these neighborhoods and his body lay in the sidewalk for 30 hours.  Someone placed a sheet over the corpse and arranged traffic cones around the body so that people wouldn’t trip over it – such a touching display of thoughtfulness – but no one could be bothered to take charge.  The city ambulance service said that its responsibilities did not include the removal of corpses.  The police said that they could interfere only for criminal cases.  It’s like the Russian joke about the police’s response to a man who complained of being threatened with murder:  “Threats do not concern us.  If he kills you, come and tell us.”  Finally some relatives contacted a funeral home that was willing to undertake the removal.  In addition, there are 900,000 indigenous people who are dying off at an alarming rate.  Few of them have access to hospitals or health care of any kind.

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 5,401,222; # of deaths worldwide: 343,799; # of cases U.S.: 1,666,828; # of deaths U.S.: 98,683.  Brazil officially has about 20% of our case count and slightly over that for its death toll.  If the estimates of its under-reporting are correct, it has already exceeded the U.S., possibly having two or even three times as many cases.

Morning statistics – Biden vets Amy Klobucher – The need for a third party – Travel along the Beltway – Dangers of public restrooms – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 5,220,599; # of deaths worldwide: 335,162; # of cases U.S.: 1,622,333; # of deaths U.S.: 96,363. 

Joe Biden’s campaign is now vetting Senator Amy Klobuchar as his vice-presidential running mate.  She is a moderate and would probably go over reasonably well with the electorate, but the vetting process is highlighting some of the weaknesses in the Biden campaign.  The choice for vice president is arousing much greater interest than it ordinarily does during presidential elections, because Biden is now 77 years old.  He has already hinted that he plans to be a transitional president who would serve only one term.  That is a half-hearted way of approaching an election, and I greatly fear that it makes Trump being elected for a second term more likely.  Whatever else may be said about Donald Trump, he cares passionately about winning and makes no secret of his desire to retain as much power as he can for as long as he can. 

Nor is Biden without a degree of arrogance on his own.  Today he said in a radio interview that anyone who is black and who voted for Trump in 2016 “ain’t black.”  I can think of no more effective way to alienate a large bloc of voters than to tell them that you take their votes for granted.  Many black voters have already in response expressed their indignation, as well as a determination to have nothing to do with Biden.  Who can blame them?

Biden is 77 and Trump is 73.  For all of the rhetoric that both the Republicans and the Democrats have made about the need for change, the best that either of them can provide are old men who aspire to prominence well after the age that most people have retired.  When will a third option emerge that will provide an alternative to these ossified parties?  We have never had a greater need for one.

I went again to my mother’s place today.  She is neither any better nor any worse.  I picked up some accumulated mail and chatted a bit with MB, her caretaker, for whom I signed the reports she needs to turn in to the long-term care health provider.  It was curious driving back and forth on Beltway, which I have been long trained to regard as an invariable source of traffic jams; traffic is still light and there were no tie-ups, with one exception.  There was an accident close to the Connecticut Ave. exit, so I had to get off on the Wisconsin Ave. exit instead.  On my return I saw that the accident had not yet been cleared from the Inner Loop and there was a long line of traffic backed up much further than it had been earlier.  It was just like old times, in fact.

Health officials are warning against using public restrooms.  For my own part, I have been avoiding them for some time.  Various porta-potties have been available for use on some of the trails, but I have not ventured into them.  There is hardly any need for them when hiking in secluded areas, because at this season the foliage is dense enough to provide adequate cover.  I believe it will take several months before I feel confident enough to venture into a public restroom of any description, no matter how frequently it is cleaned.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 5,297,989; # of deaths worldwide: 339,413; # of cases U.S.: 1,644,878; # of deaths U.S.: 97,635.  Brazil has triumphantly shot up to second place.  The way President Bolsonaro is behaving, at any rate, indicates he at least appears to consider it as a triumph.  The country has had nearly 20,000 new cases today and nearly a 1,000 deaths.  And we can be pretty confident that both the case count and the death toll have been under-reported.  One research team has suggested that the number of infections is about 16 times higher than the official figures, which would place it well in the lead of the U.S.  The WHO has declared that South America is the new epicenter for the virus, a verdict for which Bolsonaro’s policies are largely responsible.  However, he’s in good company; Sweden, which has had a similar policy of ignoring the obvious, has one of the highest mortality rates in the world for the virus.  China has reported its first day without any new cases or deaths from the virus. 

Along the southern bank of the Potomac in Loudoun County – A new face mask – Possible accelerated schedule for vaccine – Desperate remedies – Evening statistics

Today I went on a combination hike/exploring expedition with RS to determine possible routes of extending the Potomac Heritage Trail.  It was about 12 miles in all, with perhaps 1000 feet in elevation gain.  This hike had everything:  fording Catoctin Creek, climbing over a few fences, a fair amount of bushwhacking, and even a brief sally along a field full of grazing cattle.  I took the lead in fording Catoctin Creek, where the water was deep enough to come more than halfway up to my knees – which doesn’t sound like much, but can be troublesome when the current is both swift and strong.  I looked chiefly for – not where the water was the most shallow – but where the surface underneath provided rocks instead of silt to walk on.  I threaded my way through without too much difficulty.  It was worth the effort to get the opportunity to go alongside Catoctin Creek up to the point of the confluence with the Potomac River, and afterwards to continue east and south skirting past Beaver Island.  Loudoun County at this point has no formally designated trails going alongside the Potomac – which is rather curious.  Some of the land in the vicinity of Beaver Island has been designated as a future public park, but when it will actually become one is still rather uncertain.  

We had parked in the back lot of a gas station and afterwards we visited their convenience store, where I picked up another mask.  I was glad to obtain one, since the face mask I have been using for some time now is getting worn and probably has become less effective in shielding me from infection.  No one at this point is able to say when the recommendations from wearing masks upon leaving one’s home will no longer be issued.  In some areas it is more than a recommendation.  In at least a few of the cities of California people are fined for not wearing them in public places.

Dr. Fauci has given encouraging reports about a vaccine becoming available, perhaps as early as January.  It is of course uncertain at this stage whether such a time-table is feasible, but if a vaccine can be developed then it will appear that the coronavirus will be reduced to a status similar to that of the flu:  a disease that can be serious enough and that will account for some fatalities every year, but at any rate containable. 

In the meantime, of course, people are turning in desperation to other methods:

“Zinc, Zinck, zinco:  they make tubs out of it for laundry, it is not an element which says much for the imagination; it is gray and its salts are colorless, it is not toxic, nor does it produce striking chromatic reactions; in short, it is a boring metal.”  Such is Primo Levi’s verdict in The Periodic Table, that wonderful collection of stories that are each based on a single element.   If it has no particular appeal to a professional chemist, however, it has been hypothesized that zinc can help in staving off the virus.  Zinc lozenges have sometimes been recommended for inhibiting colds in the past.  The evidence is conflicting as to whether or not they have been effective.  At the very least, however, they can do no harm.  The same cannot be said about hydroxychloroquine, an anti-malarial drug whose virtues have been extolled by that far-famed expert, Medicinae Doctor Donald Trump.  It has virtually no effect as far as mitigating the disease is concerned, but it does have other features, such as the promoting of heart arrhythmia – not a condition that is particularly helpful to a body already tasked with fighting off a virus.  Some studies have suggested that COVID-19 patients ingesting this drug have a 37%-increase risk of death. 

There have been other supplements that have been touted as well, such as Vitamin D, ultra-violet light from exposure to the sun, and so on.  Even cannabis has been suggested as a possible treatment.  (There’s no evidence that it has any effect one way or the other, but those who smoke it don’t seem to care.)  And of course there are all sorts of fringe theories about various foods.  The WHO has already gone out of its way to debunk the notion that eating lots of garlic or adding hot peppers to one’s soup are effective virus preventatives. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:45 PM — # of cases worldwide: 5,189,178; # of deaths worldwide: 334,072; # of cases U.S.: 1,620,457; # of deaths U.S.: 96,295.  Our incidence rate is now nearly 0.5% — that is to say, nearly one in every two hundred has been infected by the virus.  Brazil’s case count has shot up enormously today.  At this rate it may catch up with Russia within a day or so, making it second only to the U.S. 

Morning statistics – Food for a week – China’s data suspect – Unreliability of the WHO – A sad loss – Local excursion – National parks – Appalachian Trail – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 5,011,361; # of deaths worldwide: 325,454; # of cases U.S.: 1,571,131; # of deaths U.S.: 93,558.  Cambodia, of all places, has been reporting no new cases for several days.  Its last patient being treated for the virus was discharged from the hospital, which means that it has no active cases.  It remains vigilant, however:  no easing of the restrictions on school closures and border entry.  Anyone who travels to the country must carry an approved certificate stating that he is free from the virus; and even then he is required to quarantine himself for 14 days after arriving in the country.  Gatherings in large groups are still discouraged.

I got up early today and could not go back to sleep, so I spent the hours of dawn doing laundry and going out for grocery shopping.  I drove to the local Safeway instead of walking there, contrary to my usual habit.  I have not been in a grocery store for over a week and I knew that I would have to purchase more than I could carry. 

After all of the reassuring news from China, it has done an abrupt reversal and announced that the Jilin province, which contains about 27 million people, may be forced into a lockdown as a result of a new spike in virus cases.  This news, of course, casts doubts on the numbers that they have been reporting over the past several weeks.  Even now they claim to have only 87 active cases left, but in light of the recent report this figure cannot be trusted.  The WHO is also a co-conspirator; it has excluded Taiwan from participating in the World Health Assembly at China’s insistence – as if the virus heeds political distinctions.  China may regard Taiwan simply as a rebel province, but there is no reason that the WHO should follow suit.  Much as I hate to credit Trump for doing anything sensible, his hard-line attitude towards the WHO may not be a bad idea; if it puts political considerations over those of world health, it is unfit for its designated role.  This policy of fawning on China could easily help to promote a second wave of the virus.

We have had another loss among the health care workers.  Dr. James Mahoney, 62, purposely delayed his retirement when the virus came to New York City, to continue leading the Intensive Care Units at King’s County Hospital and SUNY Downstate.  He had worked frontline during the 9/11 attacks and the AIDS epidemic, and was known for his constant concern for patients.  He came down with fever during the second week of April, but continued consulting with patients while isolating at home.  Dr. Mahoney began to have difficulty breathing and could barely walk when he was admitted to the hospital April 20^th.  He died on the 27^th.  When our attention is occupied by politicians and pastors and corporate executives scrambling for all that they can get out of this crisis, it is easy to overlook heroes such as this man, who quietly and unobtrusively risked his life daily in order to minister to others.

It was cloudy today, not as dreary as Monday but a bit more oppressive than it was yesterday.  It was cool and windy as well, never getting above 60 degrees.  It was not an especially bad sort of day, but it is a bit unexpected for the second half of May.  I did not wish to drive, so I walked locally.  But I went along some dirt paths I had not covered before – the city has been carving out new ones to make the area more pedestrian-friendly – and it was the perfect time of year to stroll past people’s gardens, now in the peak of their bloom.  I also went by two shopping areas that are under construction. The old areas that they occupied were rather rundown and the buildings were unattractive; these have been torn down and new ones are being built.  I’m not sure, however, how quickly the shops will fill up once the construction is complete.  We already have several empty retail buildings scattered among the shopping areas of the city, and the economic climate is not going to be favorable for new businesses in the months to come.  When I began the walk I was a bit discouraged by the weather, but eventually I got into stride and ended up walking about eight miles or so.  Later in the day, though, it cleared up considerably and became warmer, so I went out again.  I felt that I might as well enjoy it while I can.  Tomorrow is supposed to be rather gray again and the next two days will be wet.

Many national parks have been re-opened.  Yellowstone opened its gates yesterday, although it is still not allowing overnight lodging or camping within the park boundaries.  Visitors have entered the park in shoals and, apparently, hardly any of them wore masks.  Shenandoah remains closed, with no date set for re-opening.  The Appalachian Trail Conservancy has relaxed its guidelines slightly.  It still prefers people to avoid the trail altogether, but it has resigned itself to the inevitable; it simply is not possible to prevent people from accessing a trail nearly 2,200 miles in length.  It now says that people may hike the trail if they have no symptoms of the disease, are not planning to hike in an area where the AT is closed, and have the appropriate protective gear (masks and sanitizer).  The ATC wants hikers to 1) stay local, so that they won’t have to stop for gas or meals anywhere; 2) not use privies, shelters, or picnic tables, since their surfaces may harbor the virus; 3) hike in groups of six or less.  Through-hikers have been asked to postpone their plans.  Staying in local communities is impossible and requires frequent stops in towns for resupply and shuttles to/from communities, creating multiple opportunities for contracting or spreading the virus.  Hikers planning to stay anywhere overnight must carry their own tents instead of using shelters.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 5,082,083; # of deaths worldwide: 332,233; # of cases U.S.: 1,591,415; # of deaths U.S.: 94,933.  Brazil has registered over 20,000 cases in one day and as a result is now well ahead of Spain, placing it in third place of nations with highest case count.  It may overtake Russia as well later this week. The mayor of Sao Paulo says that the city’s health care system could collapse in two weeks.  Many nurses have already died from the virus.  Russia’s numbers are beginning to stabilize.  Restrictions are beginning to be lifted, but cautiously. 

Morning statistics – An unusual lawsuit – The American Chestnut Land Trust – Manna from Heaven in the form of yeast – The last of the easy traffic conditions – A delicate matter of terminology – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 4,915,587; # of deaths worldwide: 320,520; # of cases U.S.: 1,550,539; # of deaths U.S.: 91,985. 

The American judiciary system has seen its share of odd lawsuits, but the one brought about by Sylvia Driskell must be one of the most unusual.  She brought a suit against all homosexuals – not merely the ones in this country but all homosexuals on the planet.  Her petition is written entirely in cursive and cites no case laws, although she does quote the Bible and Webster’s Dictionary.  She claimed to be an ambassador of God and His Son, Jesus Christ; in which case, no doubt, she would have been able to produce the appropriate letters of accreditation when called to depose.  It’s difficult to understand what she expected to gain by this suit, even in the very unlikely event that it had been decided in her favor.  She said that she wants the judge to rule that homosexuality is a sin, seemingly unaware that no judge can determine the sinfulness or virtuousness of any human activity; he can only determine whether or not it is legal.  Judge John Gerrard dismissed the suit in a rather strongly-worded response, declining to recognize her self-appointed ambassadorship, rejecting the notion of a suit against a group of unidentified individuals, and saying outright that “the United States Federal Courts were created to resolve actual cases and controversies arising under the Constitution and the laws of the United States. A federal court is not a forum for debate or discourse on theological matters.”  He did not allow her to amend her complaint for the purposes of re-submission, doubtless feeling that he had already wasted time enough on this silly, vain, addle-pated woman.

I learned from AD about a hiking area that I had not known about before:  the American Chestnut Land Trust, a lovely park close to the Chesapeake Bay with 22 miles of trails.  The weather prophets turned out to be beautifully wrong about today’s forecast.  It was cloudy, but not dark and gloomy as it had been yesterday.  At times the clouds overhead became pearly-white in color and glimmerings of sunlight periodically shone through.  I hiked about 16 miles in all, with about 2000 feet of elevation gain.  The trails are not at all rocky, which meant that even though I took time to verify at junctions that I was going in the right direction and also to stop for lunch, I could complete the route in just under five hours.  It is not a very long drive either – a little under an hour and fifteen minutes from my house.  It undoubtedly will take longer once traffic conditions are restored to normal.  It is little-known; during the entirety of the hike I encountered only four hikers and one ranger working on a blowdown. There were, however, a couple of people just getting out of their cars when I was returning.  It’s not clear to me how much hiking they expected to do when they were just getting started at 3:00 PM.

My indefatigable aunt discovered a health food store that had a supply of yeast and she sent some to me in the mail, which arrived today.  It is an amount sufficient for making enough bread for two months.  By then yeast should be somewhat easier to obtain, or so one hopes.  In any case, I have a working starter as well.  It is even possible that the bakeries will resume bread-making again, but that is not to be counted on.

The relatively benign traffic situation will probably be coming to an end soon.  Metro will be shutting down parts of the Orange Line and all of the Silver Line starting from Memorial Day and lasting through all of the summer in order to accommodate construction.  This change will force more traffic on the roads just as the lockdowns in Maryland, Virginia, and DC will be lifting. 

Nancy Pelosi has drawn criticism for referring to Donald Trump as “morbidly obese” during a recent interview with CNN.  Trump is 6’3” and 243 pounds, according to his most recent physical less than a year ago, which gives him a body mass index of 30.4.  This would put him in the “overweight to moderately obese” category.  Trump’s partisans have chastised her for this inaccuracy (one is tempted to say “for this gross inaccuracy”) and point out that Trump would have to gain at least 77 additional pounds to be considered “morbidly obese.”  As someone who loves to promote social harmony I suggest that both parties come to an amicable compromise by calling him simply “fat.”

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 4,985,656; # of deaths worldwide: 324,889; # of cases U.S.: 1,570,583; # of deaths U.S.: 93,533.  Brazil’s case count is now about 7,000 less than that of Spain’s.  It sounds like a great number, but at the rate that Brazil is reporting new cases every day, my guess is that it will overtake Spain by the end of the day tomorrow.  This past weekend many revelers were out in Rio de Janeiro, most of them not wearing face masks.  There have been more deaths in the state of Sao Paulo – the most populous in Brazil – than in all of China, at least all that China has reported officially.  Bolsonaro has approved a relief bill that grants aid to informal laborers and unwed mothers; but since they are lining up in long queues at the bank to put in their claims, their risk of contracting the virus increases.  Mexico has been 17^th in the list of nations with the greatest number of cases, but it now appears to be on the verge of overtaking Belgium.  Yet it will be lifting its lockdown restrictions tomorrow, which will probably aggravate matters.  Russia’s case count is just under 300,000.  Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin has recovered sufficiently to resume his responsibilities.  The death toll is suspiciously low – still under 1%.  Alexander Gintsburg, the head of Russia’s Gamalei Research Center for Epidemiology and Microbiology, has said that Russia’s population has acquired herd immunity.  But that doesn’t explain why the same is not true for other countries – Germany, for instance, which has a much more robust health care system than Russia’s. 

Morning statistics – Encouraging news from New York – Leisure activities of football players – A common fallacy – Comic opera president of Brazil – Unpromising weather again – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 4,821,561; # of deaths worldwide: 317,004; # of cases U.S.: 1,527,951; # of deaths U.S.: 90,980. 

The outbreak is ebbing in New York.  Hospitalizations have fallen by more than a third.  This is welcome news, for New York State accounts for about 30% of the number of deaths nation-wide.  Restrictions have been eased in central and upstate New York, where construction and manufacturing work has been allowed to resume.  Retail businesses offering curbside pickup or in-store pickup for orders placed ahead have been allowed to reopen.  New York City and the more densely-populated regions are still under more restrictive guidelines until May 28^th at the earliest. 

As the NFL season remains in doubt, several football players are turning to robbery as an alternate profession.  Cody Latimer, a wide receiver for the Washington Redskins, has been arrested in Colorado for illegal discharging of a firearm, as well as of second-degree assault, menacing, prohibited use of a weapon and reckless endangerment.  NFL cornerbacks DeAndre Baker (New York Giants) and Quinton Dunbar (Seattle Seahawks) were at a house party in Florida where several attendees allege the two football players stole thousands of dollars in cash from them as well as valuable watches while armed with weapons. 

I had a rather disturbing conversation with a friend when we discussed the growing pressures confronting the majority of Americans as a result of the pandemic.  He was advocating a course of action that would have the Government give more and more handouts, and I had some difficulty in getting him to understand that if the Government simply prints more money and increases the national debt to unwieldy amounts (it has already, as I noted earlier, exceeded our GNP), the currency will eventually be devalued, resulting in a decreased purchasing power of the dollar and a return to the very impoverishment that the suggested handouts are designed to solve.  And yet he is an educated man, and he had even studied for a while in Heidelberg – an experience that should have given him some knowledge of the history of a country whose inhabitants at one point saw their life-savings rendered worthless by spiraling inflation.  It seems only too probable that the majority of voters are in a similar state of ignorance of economics, and that they will push for policies that must impose a crushing burden on the generations to come.

I have complained about President Trump a great deal in these pages, but the example of Brazil shows that we could be worse off.  Brazil’s case count has overtaken that of the U.K.; at this point only the U.S., Russia, and Spain have more.  Sao Paulo now has nearly 40,000 cases and its hospitals are now nearly out of beds.  Yet President Bolsonaro not only refuses to work with the various state governors to contain the virus; he flouts social distancing guidelines, fires health ministers when they do not tell him what he does not want to hear, and participates in protests against the lockdown procedures.  Thus Brazil presents the bizarre picture of a president leading a protest march against his own country’s government – that is to say, against himself. 

It’s been dreary today – not merely cloudy, but gray and dingy and dim, without a trace of sunshine.  It was so gloomy that I was inclined to remain indoors all day, “but that way madness lies, no more of that!”   The more-or-less continual solitude enforced by the restrictions is bad enough; never stirring out of the house can only make matters worse.  In any case, the weather is supposed to be like this for most of the week, culminating in rain on Friday.  Fortunately there were a few errands to do and all of them within walking distance.  Tomorrow I will hike somewhere no matter how the weather turns out, unless it’s a complete downpour.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 4,887,842; # of deaths worldwide: 319,960; # of cases U.S.: 1,550,083; # of deaths U.S.: 91,976.  At this rate Brazil’s case count will overtake Spain’s in two days, at which point it will be contending with Russia for the position of the country with the second highest case count.  The number of new cases in Russia appears to be declining, although it is still high.  Spain’s death toll is steadily dropping; it was well under 100 today.  Its number of severe cases is now encouragingly low, so that there is less strain on its health system than in earlier weeks.  For that matter, the virus appears to have spent its fury in most of the Western European nations.  The U.K. is still struggling, though; it had over 2,700 new cases today.

Morning statistics – Eric Trump, naïf – Lori Lightfoot’s priorities – J. B. Pritzker restricts the movements of every family except his own – Hiking in Great Falls and Riverbend – The hurricanes begin – Nigerian reaction to air flight violation – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 4,744,867; # of deaths worldwide: 313,738; # of cases U.S.: 1,507,798; # of deaths U.S.: 90,113.  Russia’s case count now exceeds that of Spain; it is second only to the U.S. at this point.  China maintains that it has only 87 active cases, 10 of them severe; yet it has doubled the number of tests for the virus in Wuhan after it revealed that a new cluster of infections emerged after the release of its lockdown on April 8^th.

Eric Trump has claimed that the coronavirus – which at this stage has killed well over 300,000 people and possibly many more not officially ascribed to it – is a ploy devised by the Democrats to discredit the administration and that it will “magically disappear” after Election Day in November.  This statement brings up an interesting question:  the familiar issue of nature vs. nurture, in fact.  Has Eric Trump arrived at such conclusions because he is inherently credulous or because he has been taught by example and upbringing to believe whatever is most convenient for him, regardless of evidence?  Either way, it shows that inanity is a family trait.

Lori Lightfoot appears to be light-hearted and even a bit light-headed in her attitudes towards homicide.  Forty-six people were shot during the first weekend in May in Chicago, four of them fatally.  During that same weekend, there were rumors of half-a-dozen parties being held without proper social distancing.  It was these latter offenders whom Lightfoot scolded in her most recent press conference.  “We will shut you down, we will cite you, and if we have to, we will arrest you,” the city mayor said.  “Don’t make us treat you like a criminal, but if you act like a criminal and you violate the law and refuse to do what’s necessary to save lives in the middle of a pandemic, we will take you to jail, period.”  The Cook County Jail has recently released over 1,300 inmates, several of them convicted rapists and murderers. Perhaps a slightly more effective way of saving lives, whether during a pandemic or not, would be to restrain people with a history of violence; but that aspect of the matter does not appear to have occurred to her.  However, she doubtless will be able to obtain solace for the city’s loss of human life by means of another private haircut from her personal salon stylist.

In fairness to the mayor, she has the excuse that J. B. Pritzker, the governor of Illinois, has evidently decided that the stay-at-home order does not apply to him or his family, and has reinforced precept with example by sending his wife to Florida, in violation of the restrictions on travel that he has laid down for the entire state.

Today I went via the Cross-County Trail at Leigh Mill/Ramey Meadows along Difficult Run to the Great Falls National Park and to Riverbend State Park.  The park entrances are closed but trails themselves are open.  It was cloudy today but not wet and the temperature was agreeably cool.  The falls are as glorious as ever, being especially full as a result of the recent rains.  I have never seen spiderwort in such profusion and the mountain laurels, with their distinctive ten-sided blossoms and petals fused together, creamy white tinged with pink at the edges, are just beginning to open.  Many birds were flying overhead, each species making its distinctive call.   I saw one species of sparrow, with metallic green feathers covering its head and back, eating at one of the bird feeders in Riverbend.  The hike was about 14 miles in all, with perhaps 1200 feet of elevation gain.  My total mileage for this year is now over 800.  I did just under 1750 miles last year, but this year I may reach as much as 2000.  I went on this hike in part because BL was supposed to lead the Vigorous Hikers on a route in this area on the 26^th.  Since he has been ill, I agree to lead it instead, which is why I scouted it today.  It appears that we can hike using the original route; we will merely be starting and ending at a different place.

The hurricane season has begun.  Tropical Storm Arthur is evolving several miles ashore from the Southeastern states.  It will be close to the North Carolina shoreline by Monday.  It is not expected to do a great deal of wind damage, but it will end up by dumping a great deal of rain in the area.  We may get as much as 3-4 inches of rain this coming week.

Nigeria has impounded a British airplane for breaking the coronavirus restrictions imposed by that nation.  Passenger flights into the country, with the exception of ones to evacuate people or repatriate Nigerian citizens, have been banned for weeks. The ban will remain in place until at least June 4.  Flights conducted for humanitarian purposes (shipment of medical supplies, for example) are permitted, but no others.  Aviation Minister Hadi Sirika has said of the matter, “The craft is impounded, crew being interrogated. There shall be maximum penalty.”  One hesitates to imagine what the maximum penalty can be.  Nigerian law can be fairly severe.  Terrorism-related offenses are among the crimes considered capital, and so is robbery; the crew will have to hope that they will not be charged with one or the other.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 4,798,952; # of deaths worldwide: 316,514; # of cases U.S.: 1,527,352; # of deaths U.S.: 90,973.  Brazil’s official case count is just barely under that of the U.K.  It’s still fifth on the list of nations with the highest count, but the real incidence is probably a great deal more.  For instance, it possesses over 13 million people alone living in favelas, where accurate testing is virtually unobtainable.  Sao Paulo’s hospital beds are already filled to 90% capacity.  Cases in Mexico continue to spike, but its lockdown is ending tomorrow all the same.  Even though the number of active cases in Spain is declining, its incidence rate is close to 0.6% of the population.  Russia recently became second on the list of nations with the highest count, but Sergey Sobyanin, the mayor of Moscow, states openly that the actual infection rates are about three times higher than reported.  He has made it clear that he has no intention of ending the lockdown in the capital.  In comparison, Putin remains strangely passive, confining himself to his private residence and delegating the work of easing lockdown restrictions to the various regional governors.  Some officials have announced that the impact of the virus there is stabilizing, but the validity of this claim remains to be seen.

Morning statistics – The virus hits home – The permanency of the virus – The amazing case of Vietnam – Authoritarianism and democracy compared – Hillary Clinton on the protesters of Michigan – Life during retirement – Modified rapture – The new epicenter – The proposed relief bill – Farmers’ Markets and wine tasting rooms – Sourdough bread at last – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 7:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 4,645,386; # of deaths worldwide: 308,990; # of cases U.S.: 1,484,287; # of deaths U.S.: 88,507. 

BL from the Vigorous Hikers has contracted the virus and apparently has had it for the past two weeks.  He is extremely fit but he is also in his late 70s and he has had heart trouble in the past, so he definitely is at risk.  I have had relatively little contact with him in the most recent hikes with the group.  It is unlikely that I would receive any infection from him directly; but I have encountered others who have had more extensive contact with him.  No one else has had any symptoms, but obviously I need to be cautious.  The weather for the next proposed hike of the group is supposed to be fairly miserable, so I probably will not be joining them in any case.  A disturbing feature that emerged from this case is that BL did not undergo any testing because the tests are providing a number of false negatives.  He has had a mild fever which subsided within a few days and has not returned, so his case is presumed not serious.

The WHO has said that the virus will not disappear over the course of time.  This statement is consistent with the views of Dr. Fauci, who said that the chances of the virus being eliminated are virtually nil.  Eventually, it seems, we will simply have to live with it, as we do with the flu, accepting the fact that it will claim several thousand every year.  Vaccines are being developed and treatments are being refined, and in the end it seems likely that we will have to apply a mixture of prevention and cure, just as we do with the flu or any other infectious disease.  The effects of this one are more far-ranging and debilitating than most, but we will have to use the same methods of emerging from the pandemic as we did from the pandemic of 1918.

Vietnam continues to astonish other nations.  Despite the fact that it shares a border with China, it has less than 300 virus cases among it 97 million citizens and no deaths.  The WHO, which has declared its suspicions of data from numerous other countries (Brazil and Iran, for instance) does not see any reason to doubt these figures.  Vietnam instituted travel restrictions even when the WHO was advising against them (it has since done a complete volte face), closed the 870-mile border with China, set up testing labs with admirable efficiency, directed the population to wear masks in public (well in advance of the majority of other countries), banned indoor gatherings of more than 20 people and outdoor gatherings of more than 10 people, and set up continual communication from the government to the populace about such matters as the proper way to wash hands and the need to accept temporary economic hardship for the sake of ensuring public safety.  The Vietnamese have even managed to donate face masks to other countries, even those, such as France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U.K., that are wealthier but that have responded to the crisis much less effectively. 

Sadly, it appears that a country with an authoritarian government is capable of operating more smoothly than a country with a democratic one – assuming, of course, that the head of such a government knows what he is doing.  The problem is that so few of them do.  The attitude of the Vietnamese government appears to be that of Elizabeth I in 16^th-century England; roughly, it can be summarized as “Let people think whatever they like, as long they do what I like.”  Nguyễn Phú Trọng keeps a low profile; he does not set up a cult of personality or live in ostentatious luxury, and as long as you don’t challenge his political supremacy or criticize the Communist party, you are left in peace.  But for every Nguyễn Phú Trọng, there are at least a dozen egomaniacs like Kim Jong-un or Jair Bolsonaro or Vladimir Putin who simply cannot exist without receiving or extorting public declarations of worship on a daily basis.  It is true that our own President has a similar mindset, but here at any rate we cannot be compelled to give him the accolades he so desperately craves.  At this stage people complain about his actions freely and satirists such as Andy Borowitz gleefully mock his numerous follies (though I am bound to say that they appear to have some difficulty in exaggerating the reality). 

Hillary Clinton has condemned the protesters at Lansing, MI, in the strongest possible terms, accusing them of “domestic terrorism.”  Unlike some of my friends, I am not an admirer of this lady.  I have worked in classified environments; and had I been guilty of some of the deeds she committed I would have been fired, and possibly even arraigned, so I do not look kindly upon her taking on special privileges and considering herself above the law in this respect.  Her hedging on this point was a major faction in her losing the 2016 election, and she has only herself to blame.  I indeed ended up voting for her myself – so great was the aversion that Donald Trump inspired in me, even then – but I held my nose when I did so.  On this point, however, I am completely in agreement with her.  Of course the stay-at-home restrictions are inconvenient to many, perhaps even costly to some; but that does not justify their marching on the state capital as if it were an enemy city to be captured and occupied.  And Trump’s essential frivolity in encouraging such a revolt highlights his shortcomings as a leader; instead of working in concert with the state governors, he deliberately tries to undermine their efforts. 

Like the heroine of The Mill on the Floss, I have come into the knowledge of what it is “to get up in the morning without any imperative reason for doing one thing more than another.”  The question may be asked:  wasn’t my condition already like this after I retired?  And the answer is:  most emphatically, no.  I did not, after all, sever all connections with my fellow-creatures when I stopped going to an office every day.  There were arrangements that had to be made to set up pension payments and medical insurance; there were several long-deferred projects on the house to be done; there were events to organize and other events to attend; there were trips with various to hike across various parts of the world.  For three years I was Director of Trails for the Wanderbirds Club, setting up the schedule for weekly hikes and then recruiting leaders for them – quite a time-consuming business, one I could not easily have done had I still been working full-time.  My term with that club has ended but since then I occupied a similar position with the Capital Hiking Club.  Then I generally led two or three hikes every quarter, and of course these had to be scouted and involved various other preliminary and follow-up tasks.  Again, I was able to visit friends who lived out of the state more readily than I could when I was continually working, and I was eager to take advantage of such opportunities.  On the whole, I had no trouble filling up my days.  It is different now.  There are occasional interactions with others, but my life for the most part is solitary.  Even after the restrictions lift, my social life won’t come back all at once.  People will remain cautious even after the stay-at-home orders end, and there will be a reluctance to attend the larger gatherings that will, I suspect, last for some time.

Some good news at last.  Italy has had its lowest death toll in ten weeks and feels confident to begin a staggered re-opening.  Spain and Turkey also have had the lowest death tolls since mid-March, and Ireland has had the least number of new cases since mid-March.  In general, the pace of the virus appears to be slowing down in Western Europe.  Russia, unfortunately, is getting an accelerating rate of new cases. 

The WHO declares that North and South America are the epicenter of the virus at this point.  Brazil has now surpassed Italy in the number of cases, as predicted.  At this point only the U.S, Russia, Spain, and the U.K. have more cases than Brazil.  Mexico’s death toll is listed 4,767 but this is almost certainly an under-estimate.  Tijuana’s morgue, for instance, has run out of space for bodies.  In Juarez a worker has stated that he is now obtaining 80 bodies per week from hospitals, whereas the normal rate is 25 per week. The country has almost one of the lowest test rates in the world, about 1,200 tests for every one million people; even Brazil has three times as many tests per million. 

The proposed relief bill has passed through the House but is reported to be “dead on arrival” for the Senate.  Nancy Pelosi has stated that she is “open to negotiations” but the remarks of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer concerning Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell – “what alternative universe is he living in?” – suggests that any negotiations conducted between the two parties will be undertaken in no very cooperative spirit.

One should speak cautiously of Senate Majority Leaders, to be sure.  One never knows what triumphs may be in store for them.  It is of course extremely doubtful that Mitch McConnell will leave any significant mark on the history of our nation, but he conceivably might one day lead a majority in the Senate.  One never knows.

My gloomy predictions about Farmers’ Markets appear to be mistaken.  The Historic Market of Roanoke re-opened yesterday.  Vendors have to wear face coverings and their stalls have to be some distance apart from one another, but the market is operative again.  Again, wine tasting rooms are open again in Oregon.  Similar restrictions apply but at least they haven’t fallen by the wayside.

I tried setting up a sourdough starter again, and today I had reasonable success.  The loaves did not rise as much as I had hoped but they did rise and the texture was light and firm.  I may have to vary the recipe.  When I began kneading the mixture after the first rising it was so nearly liquid that I felt as if I were kneading gelatin.  It became firmer as I added more flour but I found it difficult to get it to the point that it was no longer sticking to the board.  At this point the bread from the starter does not have the distinctive acid taste one associates with sourdough; that comes later as the starter begins to age.

One factor that may have assisted me was the warm weather this weekend, which helped to accelerate the starter’s rising.  We must value it while we can; the forecast is for rather cool and damp weather this coming week, with rain on Friday and Saturday.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 4,716,793; # of deaths worldwide: 312,380; # of cases U.S.: 1,507,686; # of deaths U.S.: 89,591.

Morning statistics – Dr. Fair – National parks – Walking on the Cross-County Trail – An enthusiastic hiker – Earthquake in Nevada – The USS Theodore Roosevelt again – Beaches in the northeastern states – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 7:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 4,546,070; # of deaths worldwide: 303,863; # of cases U.S.: 1,457,649; # of deaths U.S.: 86,912.  The U.S. currently accounts for over 41% of the active cases worldwide.  The percentage of severe cases is slightly less – a little under 36%; but that is what is known in technical terms as “small consolation.”  

Dr. Joseph Fair, a virologist and epidemiologist, was hospitalized with the virus about three days after taking a crowded flight from New Orleans, where he had traveled to give assistance with the concentration of illness there.  He had taken what are at this stage considered the usual precautions:  wearing a mask, using wipes for his hands, traveling directly to his home once he deplaned, and not venturing out afterwards.  He hypothesizes that he contracted the virus through his eyes – droplets can land on the eyes as well as on the nose and mouth, and they are not protected by the masks.  Initially his symptoms resembled those of flu, but his breathing became more labored.  He asked to be put on oxygen rather than to be intubated and eventually he obtained relief.  He is now in fair condition, but he says of the experience:  “You don’t want to have it, that’s all I have to tell you. You don’t want to spread it on to anyone that is at any point at a high risk, because, you know, looking at me, healthy and exercising and all of that, I can’t imagine being someone with a high-risk condition.”

National parks are re-opening, despite fears that such moves may be premature.  The Everglades, Smoky Mountains, and Glen Canyon are already open, and Zion Canyon is on the verge of opening as well. 

Today was a fine day at last, warm and sunny.  I decided to take full advantage of it, and I did not wish to drive very far.  So I went to a residential neighborhood close to Lake Accotink.  From there I took the Lake Accotink Trail to the Cross County Trail, took the Cross County Trail south to the Occoquan River, and then returned – about 29 miles in all.  There was not any single very challenging ascent, of course, but there were little climbs here and there, amounting to about 1000 feet in all.  The hike was a feast for other senses beside that of sight:  birds were continually in chorus and there were many scents of the forest to savor, particularly honeysuckle, which in some places was almost overpowering.  The parking area for the lake was, as I expected, closed, so I did well to take the approach that I did.  I used my hiking pole, for the CCT has several places where one can be of use, and it also provided a warning to people who otherwise would not obtain social distancing protocol – but whenever I came across a group sprawled across the trail I had only to raise my pole up and down, and they got the message at once, hastening to fall back into single file.  The foliage was thick and green, and there was of course a great variety of trees, very different from the forests of the West:  beeches, with their pewter-grey trunks; birches with bark pealing like paper; mottled sycamores; wide-girthed oaks; tall maples with their lacy leaves.  The Pohick Valley was well-shaded and very refreshing in the heat (the temperature reached the high 80s) and the Occoquan River gleamed and sparkled in the sunlight.  The trail is notable for “fair-weather” crossings – that is, stream crossings along concrete pylons that project above the stream’s surface.  As the name indicates, they can be slippery when wet and if the rain is heavy enough they can get submerged altogether.  On a fine and clear day, as this one was, they provided little difficulty.

I know that I emphasize hiking a good deal in these notes, but I should point out that many have done more than I have.  Sarah Hazlitt may provide an example.  She was the wife of William Hazlitt, the foremost literary critic of the day, intimate friend of Wordsworth and Coleridge, and great promoter of the English Romantic poets generally.  Unfortunately, he was also an incorrigible skirt-chaser.  Sarah Hazlitt had resigned herself to his infidelities early on during the marriage, but when he began to spoil their son rotten (Keats called the child “a little Nero”) she decided that she had had enough and readily agreed when Hazlitt, having gotten infatuated with his latest bimbo, proposed a divorce.  A divorce, in Great Britain during the early 19^th century, was not an easy matter.  The only way it could be obtained within England itself was through an Act of Parliament, which meant that it was barred to all except the very wealthy.  The alternative was to go into Scotland, where the laws were more lenient and the procedure cost considerably less.  Sarah Hazlitt agreed to take up temporary residence in Edinburgh in order to divorce William on the grounds of adultery.  Traveling such a distance for women on their own could be quite hazardous and was certain to be very uncomfortable, so Sarah’s friends were puzzled by her enthusiastic attitude as she made preparations for the trip.  One friend wrote in bewilderment that it was impossible to make her “look on her journey to Scotland in any other light than a jaunt.”  Once she arrived in Edinburgh she did the necessary paperwork and waited for the lawyers’ response.  But if the word “waited” conveys the notion of a forlorn woman in dismal hired lodgings, perhaps knitting dozens of stockings to while away the time – you can dismiss that image.  First she walked to Roslin Castle and back (17 miles); then she went to Glasgow through the Trossachs, going by boat from Newhaven to Stirling, then the rest of the way on foot – 170 miles in a week; then she walked through the highlands for at least another 100 miles; and, after taking a canal boat to Glasgow, crossed the Irish Sea and walked there for another 10 days; finally, after her return, she walked from Edinburgh to Dalkeith to see the Duke of Buccleuch’s painting collection (another 14 miles round trip).  By then the paperwork was completed and she returned to her home in England, a free woman at last, and rid of the encumbrance of her deadbeat husband.  So I seem at times to obsess on the subject, I beg the indulgent reader to consider the case of Sarah Hazlitt, the woman who made her divorce the occasion for a grand hiking tour.

An earthquake whose magnitude is 6.5 struck western Nevada, with tremors being felt from California’s Central Valley to Salt Lake City.  No deaths were reported, although the main highway between Reno and Las Vegas was damaged.

Five sailors on the USS Theodore Roosevelt have tested positive for the virus and are in quarantine.  Will any enterprising lawyer initiate a lawsuit on their behalf against Thomas Modly for so blatantly disregarding his responsibilities and ignoring the warnings of the ship’s commander?  I would like to see him well-punished for his squalid behavior, but unfortunately there is little chance of it.

New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Delaware will open their beaches for Memorial Day weekend.  Contact activities such as volleyball or football will not be allowed, but swimming and walking will be permitted.  So possibly the businesses that are dependent on the beaches’ visitors during the main season will be in less dire shape than originally expected.  But it is difficult to see how restaurants will fare under these circumstances. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 4,621,115; # of deaths worldwide: 308,132; # of cases U.S.: 1,483,994; # of deaths U.S.: 88,485.  Brazil’s case count will probably surpass Italy’s by tomorrow and Russia’s may surpass Spain’s within two days, making it second only to the U.S. in the number of cases.  China claims to have less than100 active cases at this point. 

Morning statistics – Discretion the better part of valor – Shenandoah National Park – Burke Lake and Lake Mercer – Social distancing on the trails – The spring season advances – The bars of Wisconsin – A funeral takes its death toll – Low death rate in Russia – Effects of the virus in Iran – Trump on the immunity of young children – Allergies mimicking the virus – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 4,454,038; # of deaths worldwide: 298,774; # of cases U.S.: 1,430,348; # of deaths U.S.: 85,197. 

Our country has been – but a thought occurs to me, somewhat belatedly perhaps.  During the course of these notes I have been referring to friends and personal acquaintances by their initials only instead of their full names, in case they might not like it if the notes become public.  For figures whose names are already reported in the newspapers I have naturally shown less restraint and have used their full names.  It now occurs to me that if this memoir should be brought to the attention of our President, he might take it into his head to make himself personally disagreeable to me; and he is not without subtlety and some ingenuity when he chooses to make himself disagreeable.  Mere prudence dictates that I observe the same amount of discretion towards him that I have shown to others.

So, as I was saying, our country has been suffering from a sad attack of DT lately . . .

Shenandoah National Park will be re-opening in phases, starting with portions of Skyline Drive and the trails.  The various facilities at Dickey Ridge, Elkwallow, Loft Mtn., etc., will probably remain closed for some time to come.  Even though it is a national park, the management will be taking its cue from Virginia’s schedule of phased re-opening.  At this point no date has been set, but with luck we will be able to hike there in June.  My friend LH reports that she has seen cars parked at the Panorama lot just outside of SNP, which means that people are getting on the trails anyway, despite the fact that they are officially closed and that people are forbidden to cross the boundary into the park itself. 

This observation led me to try getting into Burke Park by parking in a residential area that adjoins the main trail around the lake.  It worked perfectly; there were many cars in the neighborhood where a short dirt path goes between the street and the main lake trail, and when I got onto the trail it was evident that many others had chosen this option.  In addition, as I discovered on my return home, several cars were parked along the shoulder of Rte. 123 nearby to the closed entrances.  Since the circuit around the loop is less than six miles, even when taking the segment that adheres to the curves of the lakeshore instead of the straight paved path, I went along the South Run Trail to do the Lake Mercer loop as well.  Both the South Run Trail and the Lake Mercer loop pass by many other residential neighborhoods, and many people had taken advantage of this proximity to use the trails despite the closure of the official entrances; yet on the whole there were less people than usual.  It was cool and very cloudy, but not cold and without rain.  Both lakes are artificial, being created from dams that are used for flood control.  They are quite scenic nonetheless; Burke Lake in particular contains an islet that is used as a sanctuary for waterfowl, and in addition to the usual geese, ducks, and loons it is possible to see herons as well and even a bald eagle or two on occasion.

People behaved fairly well on the whole.  Bikers were less likely than before to ride in tandem and most people were careful about the social distancing guidelines.  There was room for improvement, of course.  About a third of the couples I encountered would not fall into single file when one approached them from the opposite direction, but the trail was broad enough to make this matter less than it might have done on mountain trails, which tend to be narrower.  The majority of the dog owners had their dogs on leashes and were conscientious about pulling them aside as other pedestrians approached them.  There was indeed one darling Mr. Muffykins without any leash at all, whose playful gambols threatened to impede my progress and to whom I was on the verge of administering a polite kick for the purpose of sending it spinning across the trail; when its owners happily called it back to their side, and the encounter passed without incident.

Most of the flowers of early and mid-spring are past their bloom now.  The blackberry bushes, however, were flowering, which is an encouraging sign.  If by any chance the effects of the virus should lead to a food shortage in the summer, I can venture into certain areas of the forest where I happen to be aware of concentrations of such bushes and pluck as many berries as I may need, and thus of dessert at any rate I will be able to obtain an abundance.

I should perhaps not be overly severe on the lapses of my fellow-pedestrians on observing social distancing when I compare them to the residents of Wisconsin.  Governor Tony Evers’ stay-at-home order was set to expire on May 26^th, but the Wisconsin Supreme Court, urged by the Republicans in the legislature, ruled that the mandate was not valid, since the governor did not work it out with the state legislature.  This decision was announced yesterday, and when it came out the bars immediately opened their doors again and patrons flocked to fill them, none of them wearing masks, as densely packed together as members of the congregation of an evangelical church. 

A group of mourners attended a funeral in South Carolina during the first week of March, before the social distancing guidelines went into effect on March 16^th.  A large number of them congregated together and, unknown to any of them, one of them was already infected.  At this point six of them have died from the virus. 

Although Russia has the third largest number of coronavirus cases in the world at this point, its mortality rate is suspiciously low:  0.9%, while countries such as France, the U.K., and Italy are in the 12%-14% range.  However, Russia does not appear to be counting deaths in which the virus was a proximate factor.  The WHO is currently discussing the matter with Russian authorities, several of whom at any rate profess to be anxious about the accuracy of their assessments and who may be willing to recalculate the death tally.

Iranians appear to be chafing under their regime as a result of its handling of the virus.  Despite the warnings from Iran’s Minister of Health, the government insisted on holding public celebrations for the anniversary of the Islamic Revolution (February 11^th) before issuing guidelines about social distancing, many religious leaders kept mosques open while the infections multiplied, and the Fatimah Masumeh of Qom was also kept open well after infections were detected.  Medical equipment is in short supply at hospitals and many Iranians are voluntarily helping out by contributing masks, gowns, and food.  The numbers of cases and of deaths have been consistently under-reported – by as much as a factor of 8-10, according to some experts. The government is essentially split into two parts:  the elected government headed by President Hassan Rouhani and the Revolutionary Guard of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.  Khamenei has the real power, but the growing unpopularity of the Revolutionary Guard may give Rouhani the opportunity to dislodge them.  The collapse of oil prices is aggravating tensions as well. 

It is difficult to know what outcome to hope for.  I remember working in 1983 for the University Research Foundation on a project whose staff included several Iranian emigrés.  I asked one of them when he thought his country would return to a less authoritarian government after the changes brought about by the 1979 revolution.  He replied sadly, “The country is trashed and it will remain that way for a long time.  It will not be fit to live in during my lifetime.”

Donald Trump has urged re-opening schools on the grounds that “this is a disease that attacks old people” and “it’s had very little impact on young people.”  These remarks contradict the warnings of Dr. Fauci, whom I believe to be slightly better informed on such matters, to say nothing of the documented deaths among children as little as five years old.  And even if it were shown that the virus miraculously spares all children, the teachers are somewhat older and thus more susceptible.  There are times when, even with the most charitable feelings towards President Trump, you can’t help thinking that he ought to be in some sort of a home.

I spoke with RK tonight.  She has been suffering allergies from the pollen.  One complication is that the symptoms can initially be similar to those of the virus.  However, she has no fever and no debilitating fatigue, so the chances are she is undergoing the usual issues she faces at this time of year.  She has been much more cautious than I have, getting all of her groceries delivered and hardly venturing outside at all.  It’s unlikely that she contracted the virus when she has been following such a degree of self-isolation.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 4,520,682; # of deaths worldwide: 303,065; # of cases U.S.: 1,456,268; # of deaths U.S.: 86,895.  Brazil’s case count, having surpassed that of France, is now about to forge ahead of Italy’s.  Spain and Italy continue to get numerous new cases, but the number of cases that are still active has gone steadily downward in both countries. 

Morning statistics – Foxes becoming emboldened – Proposed stimulus package – Protestors in Michigan – Catoctin Creek – A false alarm – Driving under easy conditions – The coronavirus is here to stay – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 4,363,949; # of deaths worldwide: 293,549; # of cases U.S.: 1,408,745; # of deaths U.S.: 83,449.  The U.S. now accounts for nearly half of the active cases worldwide.  Our incidence rate is over 0.42%.  Brazil’s case count is only 11 less than that of France; it will overtake the latter country by this evening.  The gap between Russia’s case count and Spain’s is closing; soon it will be second only to the U.S. in its number of cases.  It continues to get over 10,000 new ones every day.  Moreover, it has admitted that many deaths in April should have been attributed to COVID-19 that were listed as due to other causes (heart attack, organ failure, and other conditions that are aggravated by the onset of the virus). 

Foxes are stealing shoes from local residents.  I have already mentioned that the wildlife has been bolder over the past several weeks, and foxes particularly so.  Formerly seeing a fox during local walks, and especially seeing one who crossed my path, was the rarest of occurrences.  In the past six weeks I have seen no fewer than three of them.  I suppose that the lack of traffic on the roads has encouraged them to be more active.  The Historic Blenheim area possesses about 12 acres, 4 of them wooded, and the foxes have several holes there concealed by the undergrowth.  Many residents in that area have acquired the habit of leaving their shoes outside as a precaution against bringing the virus into their homes, where the foxes find them and drag them to their holes for use as toys for their kits.  At least that is the accepted explanation, but one observer has come up with a different theory, which is not without a certain ingenuity:  “Foxes steal shoes because most shoe stores and malls discriminate against foxes.”

Another stimulus bill is being proposed.  The stimulus would provide funding for state and local governments, hazard pay for essential workers, funding for coronavirus testing, rent and mortgage assistance, an extension of the $600 weekly unemployment expansion, additional funding for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, additional funding for small businesses, emergency relief for the U.S. Postal Service, and provisions for election safety and facilitating voting by mail.  And where is the money to come from?  Is the Government simply going to print more and thereby devalue the currency?  Or simply sink into more debt?  It is true that the economies of other countries have been similarly damaged, so perhaps ours will maintain the same status relative to theirs.

The protestors in Lansing have been transmitting the virus to the rural areas of Michigan, where the majority of them live.  Thus they have been industriously at work to defeat their own ends.  Governor Whitmore has been asking the administration to discourage the activists, but in vain.  She is a Democrat; and for the current administration, party politics is more important than national safety.

Today I hiked with RS through various parts of Loudoun County.  We kept at a distance from one another during the hike and we wore face masks.  We went along a rather meandering route; indeed, the greater part of it was bushwhacking.  We managed to find our way to the bank of Catoctin Creek, which we had glimpsed from above on one of our previous hikes but were unable to discern whether or not any defined trails went along the course of the stream.  There was a trail along certain parts; in other areas we had to push our way through the forest and the undergrowth, but it appears that a trail route going alongside the stream can be devised.  The stream itself is broad and flows gently, with the potential of providing swimming holes for the summer months.  The weather has become favorable at last:  warm but not hot, without rain and with little humidity.  It will become chilly tonight, but after that we should be seeing weather more typical of the season.

RS had not been well for several days, although he has recovered by now.  His symptoms were a temporary attack of conjunctivitis and continual accumulations of sputum.  He wondered whether his ailment could have been a form of the virus.  I did not think it likely, for he had no fever, no dry cough, and no breathing issues.  Nonetheless, he voluntarily placed himself under quarantine for two weeks.  One of the effects of the pandemic is that the slightest symptom of illness triggers alarm that under ordinary circumstances one would brush off as being of little account. 

Once the restrictions are totally lifted I shall miss the ease of driving on the roads.  After the hike was over and I returned, I went by way of Rte. 50, which I ordinarily would not have done because it is clogged with stop lights and generally has a high volume of traffic in the afternoon.  I used that route because I wanted to stop at a winery and replenish my supply of wine.  It was surprisingly easy.  Even though the lights are not especially well-timed, there was little backup at any of the stops.  Going along Rte. 50 at that time of day, stopping at the store, and going on Rte. 50 again back to Fairfax would have taken much longer and would have been a significantly more frustrating drive under normal conditions, which makes me less eager for the lifting of the stay-at-home restrictions than one might expect.

Dr. Fauci has said that the virus will never be eradicated.  It is too readily transmissible and too widespread.  When travel restrictions are allowed to lapse, hundreds of thousands of visitors will be entering the U.S., each one of them a potential carrier.  (The same strictures apply, of course, to other countries receiving American visitors.)  It will be something we’ll always have with us, like flu or the common cold, and the only way we’ll be able to contain it is to develop an effective vaccine.

California appears to have reached a plateau.  There is a continued downward trend in the numbers of new cases and new deaths.  Beaches are being re-opened.  Visitors can pursue activities such as swimming, jogging, surfing, and walking, but volleyball and other group sports are banned.  Visitors must wear masks when they are out of the water.  Retail businesses whose employees cannot easily tele-commute are also re-opening. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 4,425,451; # of deaths worldwide: 297,739; # of cases U.S.: 1,430,243; # of deaths U.S.: 85,192.  Brazil’s case count is now higher than that of France.  Russia’s case count is less than Spain’s but it is rapidly catching up.  The figures from the African nations are reassuringly low, at any rate for the present.  Some island nations are at this point without any active cases, as well as the following mainland ones:  Belize, Suriname, and Western Sahara. 

Hiking in the Massanutten Range – Traffic conditions still light – India allowing trains to run again – President Bolsonaro claims jobs more important than containing the virus – Mexico – Nick Cordero – Evening statistics

I hiked under the auspices of the Vigorous Hikers; I cannot say I hiked “with” them, since I started earlier than most of them and encountered them only in passing.  It was cool today – quite chilly for most of the morning, in fact.  Even in the lower elevations the temperature never went above 60 degrees, and it was fairly cloudy until well into the afternoon.  The hike was in the Massanutten range, something over 16 miles, with 3000 feet of elevation.  It took me 5 hours and 40 minutes.  Most of the time I was moving pretty well, but the hike involved going over both Strickler Knob and Duncan Knob, and these are rock scrambles – it will not do to hurry through them.  In stepping down from Duncan Knob one must take care not to lose sight of the trail below; the last 350 feet one simply climbs over boulders and it is easy to mistake one’s bearings in descending.  In addition, the views are worth lingering upon – those from Duncan Knob in particular.  It is a rock outcropping with a 270-degree view on top, looking down into the valley of the south fork of the Shenandoah River and to the Blue Ridge beyond. 

The drive back was easy and there was no backup of traffic in the other direction, as there generally is under normal conditions.  It is evident that many people are still telecommuting and that many others have nowhere to commute to because they are still out of work.  Conditions will be closer to normal next week, although the most populous counties will probably delay the release of the lockdown restrictions.

Trains are running in India, after several weeks of their being forced to halt due to the country’s lockdown restrictions.  Train travel is one of the mainstays of India, and it must have been a great hardship to do without it.  It is easy to see why they want it resumed as quickly as possible; one hopes that using the trains will be feasible and will not trigger another spike of the virus.  India has had more than 70,000 cases – not a huge number for a country whose population is 1.3 billion, although not insignificant either. Its mortality rate is slightly over 3%.  On the whole, the Indians seem to have managed well so far.  The difficulties that the country is experiencing do not appear at this point on a par with many others – it cannot be considered a “hotspot.”  The greatest damage has been to their economy, but most of the countries in Asia and Europe have suffered the same way.

Brazil is easing restrictions as cases continue to multiply. President Bolsonaro has declared hair salons and gyms to be among the essential services that may remain open.  Construction companies and auto companies are essentially doing business as usual.  Bolsonaro’s attitude is that without a viable economy there will be no funding for anything, including hospitals.  It may be so, but if a sufficient percentage of workers become incapacitated, the jobs that drive the economy won’t last very long.  Many Brazilian cities, however, have locked down – the local authorities, apparently, not sharing his nonchalant attitude.  The country now has more cases than Germany, moving it to seventh on the list of countries with the greatest number of cases.  It will soon overtake France as well.  Its number of critical cases is second only to that of the U.S., but its severity rate is four times greater than ours. 

Mexico’s problems have not been quite as severe as Brazil’s, but the nation has already lost 111 medical personnel to the virus.  Already the hospitals in Mexico City are reaching their maximum capacity.  It is possible that the death toll might as high as three times the amount officially reported. And Mexico City isn’t seeing the silver lining that so many other cities have enjoyed; it is still filled with smog.  Even though traffic has diminished, festering garbage dumps, dirty diesel-fueled generators, and frequent forest fires keep filling the air with pollutants.

Poor Nick Cordero has been undergoing sheer misery ever since he contracted the virus.  To date Cordero’s heart has stopped, he required resuscitation on occasion, and he has endured two mini-strokes, a leg amputation, an MRI to investigate possible brain damage, several bronchial sweeps, a sepsis infection causing septic shock, a fungus in his lungs, holes in his lungs, a tracheostomy, blood clots and a temporary pacemaker to assist his heart.  He has recently emerged from a coma but is very weak, unable to speak and just barely able to open his eyes. There are some people who have deliberately attempted to catch the virus in order to obtain immunity; if they had a closer look at what Cordero has suffered as the result of his illness, they might wish to reconsider.

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 4,339,798; # of deaths worldwide: 292,807; # of cases U.S.: 1,408,636; # of deaths U.S.: 83,425.  China now claims to have only 104 active cases, of which 10 are critical. 

Morning statistics – A hiking incident – Unseasonable weather continues – Tele-marketing spam calls – NFL football season in jeopardy – Another outburst of Trump at journalists – Re-opening of beaches – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 4,210,318; # of deaths worldwide: 284,448; # of cases U.S.: 1,368,036; # of deaths U.S.: 80,789.  As predicted, Russia is now third on the list of number of cases, trailing behind only the U.S. and Spain.  At this rate it will overtake Spain as well in a couple of days.  Spain has been hit very hard.  Its daily death toll is decreasing but it still lost over a hundred people in the last 24 hours.  Its incidence rate is over 0.57%.  Brazil is still eighth on the list of total number of cases, but it is overtaking Germany and France.  The presidents of both Paraguay and Venezuela have denounced Bolsonaro’s attitude as irresponsible.  The incidence rate is also increasing swiftly in Peru, Mexico, and Ecuador.  On the other hand, Belize and Suriname have no active cases.

Yosemite National Park is closed, but a hiker attempted to view Angel Falls a few miles outside of the park’s south entrance.  In attempting to cross the falls he got caught in a whirlpool and would have drowned, had not an off-duty police officer who was also hiking in the area managed to throw a rope to him and then pull him out.  Water from the snow melting during the spring thaws can be treacherous and it is not advisable to cross rapid water in that season.  And it’s easy to under-estimate the force of the flow; some streams and lakes appear fairly placid on the surface but have strong currents underneath.  Still, I saw photos of the stream and I doubt very much whether I would have attempted it. The torrent was flowing swiftly even along the surface and the temperature of the water could not have been more than 50 degrees.

Today’s weather was not disagreeable:  it was in the high 50s, somewhat blustery but not overly so, and cloudy but with a bit of sunshine now and then.  Why, then, did it feel so unsatisfactory?  We continue to have cooler temperatures than usual; today was not at all a bad sort of day for March but by mid-May one expects warmer weather.  One must beware, however, of directing wishes to Heaven in that respect; the forecast is for quite torrid temperatures by the weekend.

The devil can find work for busy hands as well as idle ones, so he sent a commission to the telemarketers, which they undertook immediately.  Today I’ve been getting calls purporting to be from Verizon stating that my account has been suspended.  I knew very well that Verizon would not do so without contacting me first and that it would certainly not convey such a message by means of a recorded voicemail, so I simply blocked the caller.  But it was like eliminating Hydra’s heads; when one was cut off, another took its place.  I am on the Do Not Call list, but it makes no difference.  The only way to eliminate these scams is to ban telemarketing altogether, and this step the Government and the phone companies consistently refuse to take.

Dr. Fauci has strongly urged against resuming football games at this point, since the players are almost certain to infect one another if they meet on the playing field.  The NFL football season doesn’t begin until the fall.  When asked whether we will have NFL football this year, Fauci said “The virus will make the decision for us.”

In today’s press conference about the virus, Trump displayed yet another one of his tantrums, walking out abruptly after a heated exchange with some of the journalists.  Weijia Jiang of CBS asked Trump, who frequently compares the United States’s testing ability and mortality rate with those of other countries, why the statistics surrounding the virus are a “global competition” to him.  “Well, they’re losing their lives everywhere in the world, and maybe that’s a question you should ask China,” Trump responded. “Don’t ask me. Ask China that question, OK? When you ask them that question, you may get a very unusual answer.”  “Why are you saying that to me specifically?” asked Jiang, who was born in China and raised in West Virginia. “I’m not saying it specifically to anybody. I’m saying it to anybody that would ask a nasty question like that,” Trump replied before moving on to another reporter.  And there is no question that if there is one subject on which Trump is an expert, it is nastiness.

Beaches are re-opening all over the country, from Ocean City, MD to Myrtle Beach, SC and even at Lake Tahoe.  New Jersey, the hardest-hit state after New York, has not re-opened beaches yet, but Atlantic City is planning to have hotels and dining available to visitors by June 1^st. 

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 4,253,802; # of deaths worldwide: 287,250; # of cases U.S.: 1,385,834; # of deaths U.S.: 81,795.  The U.K. total case count has shot up again, so that it is now third and Russia is now fourth in the list of nations with the highest counts.  Spain’s case count is significantly higher than either but it does appear to be stabilizing, which is not the case for the other two.  Brazil’s case count is now only slightly less than Germany’s. 

Morning statistics – Household chores – A virtual memorial service – An example of the eighth and highest degree of charity – Phèdre in a modern dress – Odd behavior patterns in Michigan – Encouraging news from New York – Claudia Meza – The disproportionate role professional sports play in the U.S. – President Trump’s priorities – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 7:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 4,121,778; # of deaths worldwide: 280,868; # of cases U.S.: 1,347,318; # of deaths U.S.: 80,040.  The virus now appears to be advancing in Eastern Europe and Latin America.  Russia is getting more than 10,000 new cases every day.  The death toll in Brazil is several hundred per day.  The figures from African nations, however, are still low.  Many of these have taken extensive preventative steps, so there is hope that they may be able to contain the virus and emerge relatively unscathed.

Today has warmed up at last.  I had to go shopping for the week in the morning, and after my return I mowed the lawn.  The outside temperature warmed up gradually and by the time I had completed the mowing I no longer needed a jacket and ski-cap.  And I can open windows in the house again.  I did not venture far from home, however; the virtual memorial service for FP was scheduled for 3:00 this afternoon and I did not want to miss it.

The service featured several reminiscences of FP, and one of speakers had a wonderful story.  He was out of work at one point; and in a desperate attempt to find employment he walked into one of the Hard Times Café restaurants, of which FP happened to be the owner.  FP not only hired him on the spot, but voluntarily loaned him enough to cover his debts, allowing him to pay it back by taking a slight amount out of his paycheck until it was all paid off.  This is an example of what Maimonides calls the highest degree of charity, that of helping a man to help himself.  The man in question is now a successful businessman and a member of the legislature in Iowa.  There were many similarly heartfelt tributes to FP.  I did not know him well; I knew him only as the husband of CC, whom I met through the Vigorous Hikers.  I would go to their annual Christmas parties, but he already was in frail health when I first met him, and so that was the extent of my contact with him.  I am sorry now that I did not know him earlier.  In his professional life, he appears to have been one of those business owners who treat their employees as a kind of extended family.  That type of employer is becoming increasingly rarer, and the after-effects of the virus on the economy will make such employers rarer still.  I do not see how small businesses can adapt once the virus has passed through and completed its devastation – the increased amount of regulations will make it impossible for all but the largest businesses to survive.

French classical theatre may be remote to most Russians or Americans, but quite a number of them have recently been viewing a modern rendition of Racine’s Phèdre.  Marina Balmasheva is currently in the process of getting a divorce from her husband Alexey Shavyrin, after the latter awoke to the sounds of Marina having sex with her lover.  The lover in this case happened to Alexey’s son, Vladimir, from a previous marriage.  Marina entered the household when Vladimir was 7 years old and was his stepmother for 13 years.  This story, however, is a 21^st-century version of the venerable tragedy.  Alexey Shavyrin did not, like Thésée (or Theseus), curse his son and make an invocation to the gods to ensure the latter’s destruction; he contented himself with publicly venting his grievances on a national talk show.  Young Vladimir, far from repulsing his stepmother’s advances, cheerfully acquiesced with them; and Balmasheva, instead concealing her passion in secret shame and confiding to no one except her old nurse, broadcasted the entire story on her webpage, which has over 400,000 followers.  Not content with narrative only, she included before-and-after photographs of herself and her stepson, the first showing her standing alongside a confiding child and the second showing her locked in a passionate embrace with a youth of 20.  Considering that the original story ended with the deaths of Phèdre and Hippolyte, along with the blighting of the remainder of Theseus’ life, I suppose that this outcome is preferable; but it does seem a bit messy nonetheless.

The notoriously contaminated water of Flint, Michigan, appears to have affected the inhabitants of the entire state.  A barber in Owosso has opened his shop in defiance of the state’s lockdown orders.  The Michigan Attorney General has sent orders for him to close, which he simply has ignored.  Militia volunteers have lined up around the shop to prevent the police from shutting it down or arresting him, and in the meantime the shop has a line of steady customers with as many as 15 waiting on the street due to the crowd inside.  None of them are wearing masks or practicing social distancing.  In the meantime, armed protestors are still besieging Lansing, several bearing swastikas and Confederate flags.  One can only wonder at their staggering ignorance of elementary biology and, it may be added, of geography as well.  Has anyone clued them in that Michigan is considerably north of the Mason-Dixon line?

Good news from New York at last:  the hospitalization rate has fallen to what it was seven weeks earlier, when the stay-at-home order was first issued.  This order is scheduled to expire next week, although Governor Cuomo has reserved the option to extend it as needed. 

Another sad story:  Claudia Meza, aged 51, fell ill of the virus and spent 49 days in a hospital, 28 of these on a ventilator.  She finally pulled through, was discharged, and returned to her relatives – only to discover that her sister and her brother-in-law had also contracted the virus and had died within a week of each other. 

Virginia begins Phase 1 of the re-opening next week – on the 15^th, to be precise.  Barber shops, hair salons, and other non-essential businesses will be open then, but indoor dining for restaurants will still be on hold.  Outdoor dining will be allowed, but only at 50% capacity.  Churches and other houses of worship will be allowed to resume services, but the 50%-capacity rule applies to these as well.  Fairfax, Loudoun, and Prince William counties, the most populous of the state, have a slighter higher rate of infection than the remainder of Virginia, so the governor is willing to allow local authorities to impose stricter guidelines at any time.  We may see the stay-at-home orders extended in this area until May 29^th, especially as the number of cases continues to rise.

From a Washington Post article by Norman Chad:  “The pandemic has reminded us: We don’t need more sports in our lives — we need less.”  Some people have claimed that this statement was merely satire designed to provoke the maximum amount of reaction.  But if it should happen that Chad doesn’t stick to his guns, I’m not afraid to say it:  spectator sports play too much of a role in the average American’s life.  The benefits of playing organized games in one’s backyard or in a local park are indisputable, but when they are transformed into a mega-business their influence becomes notably less benign.  Among other things, the time devoted to watching them on television prevents many Americans from getting much exercise on their own.  As one who does not care especially for games, I can, at the age of 65, go for 20 miles without stopping over a mountainous route with an elevation gain of 5000 feet and more in the course of well under a day.  How many professed sports-lovers can claim the same?

Speaking of the beneficent influence of organized sports on our nation, President Trump has just tweeted a commercial for the re-opening of the golf course under his ownership.  We may be undergoing a pandemic that has claimed over 80,000 lives in this nation alone, but business is business after all.  What a comfort to learn how our President is placing his priorities!

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 4,178,154; # of deaths worldwide: 283,734; # of cases U.S.: 1,367,638; # of deaths U.S.: 80,787.  The death toll in the U.K. is now greater than Italy’s, and the mortality rate is not far behind.  Russia’s incidence count is now well over 200,000.  The incidence rate is Belarus is also steadily increasing.  At this rate it will soon be among the ten nations with the highest incidence rates.  On the other hand, Spain has had the lowest death toll today since mid-March.  Increases are also smaller in France and Canada.  Turkey is allowing its senior citizens to go outside for the first time in nearly two months.  Iran, which has been easing its lockdown restrictions, has re-instituted them in one of its southwest counties because its number of new cases went up by 60%.  China claims to have only 141 active cases, of which 9 are severe.  But there is a cluster of new cases in Wuhan.  Also, China does not include asymptomatic individuals in its assessment of active cases. 

Morning statistics – Brazil begins to unravel – Hiking in Leesylvania – Checking in with my aunt – Dana White’s reassurances – Shrinkage of the middle class – Difference of V-Day celebrations between Russia and Belarus – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 7:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 4,032,763; # of deaths worldwide: 276,677; # of cases U.S.: 1,322,164; # of deaths U.S.: 78,616.  The incidence rate in both Russia and Brazil continues to accelerate.  The total number of deaths is Russia is now barely lagging behind that of the U.K. and Italy.  At this rate it will overtake both nations in two or three days.  The Faeroe Islands, the Falkland Islands, and Papua New Guinea have joined that exclusive group of territories now free of the virus (everyone who has contracted it has since recovered). Papua New Guinea has a population of about 9,000,000, which makes it the first entity that is not a microstate that has rid itself of the virus.  That is good news, because the medical care system in that nation is so rudimentary that the virus had the potential of doing a great deal of damage.  Belize and Suriname have no active cases at the moment, but because they share borders with countries with active cases they are not considered free of the virus yet.  The number of active cases in New Zealand is down to 103 and only two of these are considered severe.  Taiwan has 73 active cases, none of them severe.  Australia has 697 active cases, 19 of which are severe.  Vietnam has 47 cases, 8 of which are severe; up to this point it has had no deaths from the virus – and this result, it bears repeating, in a country that borders China.  China claims to have only 208 active cases, 15 of them severe. 

Brazil has the highest rate of transmission of any major country:  anyone there who has contracted the virus infects three others on the average.  In contrast, the average reproduction rate in Germany is 0.8.  The virus is now ravaging Sao Paolo.  Mass burial sites are being carved out on the edge of the city’s residential neighborhoods.  The official count of virus infections places Brazil eighth on the list of total number of cases; if the estimates of under-reporting are correct, it is in reality second only to the U.S. or possibly even claiming the sorry distinction of first place. 

I went along the Potomac Heritage Trail just outside of Leesylvania State Park today.  This hike is one whose route I devised during my last year as Director of Trails for the Wanderbirds.  The club members enjoyed it very much, even though in one respect it did not turn out as I had hoped.  At that time the Neabsco Creek Boardwalk was scheduled to be completed and available by the date for which I had placed the hike into the club schedule.  The ribbon-cutting ceremony for the Boardwalk, however, had to be postponed.  Even after that time, there was an area for about 500-600 feet at the south end of the Boardwalk where the trail was not complete.  The only way to get from where the trail petered out to the end of the Boardwalk was to bushwhack – and that area is not good for bushwhacking, being covered with brambles and boggy to the extent that the suction from the mud is capable of pulling boots off of one’s feet.  The section that continued towards Leesylvania went through a wetlands area and would get very muddy and slippery after even a mild rainfall.  I knew that work had been done on the trail since I last visited it, and I wanted to see if any progress had been made.  It turns out that the trail is now in excellent condition.  An elevated walk has been placed over the bog and there are many wooden planks to aid hikers getting through the muddier portions of the wetlands.  It is now possible to hike continuously from Rippon Landing (the north end of the Boardwalk) to Leesylvania.  The Boardwalk has been closed on account of the lockdown restrictions but once it is re-opened it will be possible to do the hike route that I had originally intended. 

Leesylvania itself is now open, as is the case with most of the Virginia state parks, and so I went along the route I had done with the club in the past.  It is a loop of about nine miles, but the various excursions I made at the two endpoints of the Boardwalk brought the total distance that I covered today closer to twelve.  The park itself is on a small peninsula defined by two streams that drain into the Potomac River:  Neabsco Creek at the north edge and Powell Creek at the south.  The Potomac in this area is considerably broader than it is closer to Washington, continually widening as it approaches the Chesapeake Bay.  Not only does it provide many lovely vistas of both streams and of the Potomac itself, but it is of considerable historical interest.  The Lee and the Fairfax families, both of whom played a large role in shaping the history of Virginia, had estates on the site that the park now occupies.  The various facilities were closed but people were allowed to visit as long as they confined themselves to fishing in the river or walking on the trails.  The restrooms were closed, of course; but to my surprise the porta-potties were available to all comers.  But I did not venture into any of those; that was too much of a risk for my liking. 

It was cold this morning, a little over 40 degrees (5 degrees Celcius) and I was grizzling a bit about the unseasonable weather for this time of year.  But about half-an-hour into the hike the temperature rose by a few degrees, with sunlight pouring down from a nearly cloudless sky, and I actually felt to the need to take off a layer of clothing.  Later still it became cloudier and windy; by the time I returned home it had become chilly again.  It is supposed to be warmer tomorrow and by Thursday or so we should be having temperatures closer to the average. 

I called my aunt when I returned.  She is keeping her spirits up, although the enforced solitude must be more difficult for her than it is for me.  We sent some photographs to each other, with me sending her photos from recent hikes and she sending me photos of relatives and also of New York City in its current state.  The streets are strangely empty, so different from the city I remember from numerous visits.

Americans have been suffering from a lack of professional sports activities since, unlike the inhabitants of Belarus, people here are not yet prepared to crowd themselves into stadiums.  However, the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) has organized a fight between Tony Ferguson and Justin Gaethje, who will battle for the interim lightweight championship on Saturday.  It will be streamed on ESPN.  In the words of UFC president Dana White, “Ferguson vs. Gaethje will be one of the most violent fights you’ll ever see, I can guarantee that.”  I’ve no doubt that such an assurance must be a gratification to sports fans all over the country and that people will tune in by the thousands to witness so pleasing an event.

Our middle class is shrinking as a result of the impact of the virus on the economy.  Many Americans live from paycheck to paycheck, and they are ill-prepared to meet a period of prolonged unemployment.  Last year a Federal Reserve report warned that nearly 40% of American workers could not come up with as little as $400 for an emergency.  Not all of the people who were laid off during the lockdown will necessarily be able to find work again once the lockdown restrictions are completely eliminated, and in any case that will be a matter of several weeks, even months.  In the meantime that monthly payment for rent or mortgage, which I discoursed upon earlier, will not go away.  Many homes have already been placed for sale on the market.  We are relatively fortunate in the DC Metro area, where so many jobs are Government-related and thus have a higher proportion that is considered essential. 

Russia celebrated V-Day today, but the celebrations were muted.   Hardly anyone was in the streets of St. Petersburg or Moscow.  The only military display was a flyover of central Moscow by 75 warplanes and helicopters.  Just across the border, the Belarussians turned out in tens of thousands in Minsk to watch a parade of 3,000 soldiers.  Few of the spectators were wearing masks, and none were practicing social distancing. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 4,098,092; # of deaths worldwide: 280,223; # of cases U.S.: 1,347,125; # of deaths U.S.: 80,036. 

Morning statistics – Two right-wing conspiracy theorists and slanderers (I take full responsibility for this tautology) – Marilee Shapiro Asher – More rain and chill – The schedule for lifting restrictions in Virginia – Mexico – Memorial Day celebrations may create issues – Three countries with no reports of the virus – Evening statistics – The doubtful sanity of President Bolsonaro

Today’s statistics as of 7:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 3,934,813; # of deaths worldwide: 271,095; # of cases U.S.: 1,292,879; # of deaths U.S.: 76,942.  At the rate Russia is going, it will soon overtake the U.K. and Italy in the absolute number of case counts.  Its mortality rate is low (less than 1%) but it will go up as the more recent cases come to a resolution.  Brazil’s case count is also increasing rapidly.  It is now eighth on the list of nations on an absolute scale of case counts.  Sweden’s mortality rate is now 12.5%.  The U.K. is now has the highest number of deaths of all the European countries, more than 30,000.  Its mortality rate is nearly 15%.  On the other hand, Spain and Italy both appear to have flattered the curve; the number of new cases and of deaths per day has been going steadily downwards.  China’s number of active cases is now down (reportedly) to 260. 

On April 21^st Jacob Wohl and Jack Burkman, notorious far-right conspiracy theorists, reported that a woman accused Dr. Fauci of sexual harassment.  Shortly afterwards the woman, calling herself Diana Rodriguez, confirmed this account.  Ten days later she told a journalist that her real name is Diana Andrade and that she made these allegations only because she was paid to do so by Wohl and Burkman.  The attempt to slander Fauci with false accusations was clumsy enough, but this is not the first time that Wohl and Burkman have made such attempts:  Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg, Robert Mueller, Kamala Harris, and Ilhan Omar have all endured similar treatment.  The two men are nothing but blackmailers, and why they haven’t been arraigned is a mystery. 

In all fairness I doubt whether President Trump is personally involved with the two.  His attitude towards them is probably like that of Pompey in Antony and Cleopatra when Menas proposes to assassinate Antony, Lepidus, and Octavian while they are too drunk to make any resistance:

        . . . Ah, this thou should have done
        And not have spoke on’t!  In me 'tis villainy,
        In thee’t had been good service.

In all probability Trump has not been in contact with Wohl and Burkman, but he certainly has made no attempt to repudiate them.  It is only too likely that he appreciates their “good service.”

Marilee Shapiro Asher, a painter and sculptor whose works have been displayed in the Smithsonian, contracted the virus in March but recovered without having to resort to a ventilator.  This is the second pandemic she survived; the first one was the Spanish flu of 1918, when she was 6 years old.  She is now 107.  At one point the doctor in attendance said that she had no more than 12 hours to live, to which her daughter responded, “Well, he doesn’t know my mother, does he?” 

Yet another rainy day!  I managed to get out and take a loop of about 7 miles before it started.  The rain will pass later on, but tomorrow will be quite cold, less than 50 degrees (10 degrees Celsius).  We may even get a touch of snow.  Afterwards a warming trend will begin, but we will not be seeing seasonable temperatures until late next week.

Even as Virginia plans to lift restrictions, the number of cases in Fairfax County is increasing exponentially.  The greater part of these occurs in the health care industry, particularly those who work in nursing homes.  Even if matters are improving in other parts of the state, we are by no means over this hurdle yet.  As it is, non-essential businesses will still not be able to open until May 15^th.  (Originally they were scheduled to re-open today.)  At that point one may get haircuts but will require appointments to do so.  Dining out will be possible again, but fewer tables will be available on account of spacing requirements.  People may go to gyms but may have to wait longer to get in, since there will be limits on how many may use one simultaneously.  State parks will be re-opened, but only for use during the daytime.  The prognostics for the state seem favorable on the whole.  Hospitalizations are no longer overwhelming the health care system and projections are considerably less than they were earlier.  Much of the increase in the incidence rate is due to the increased availability of testing.  The mortality rate is reassuringly low. 

Tijuana, Mexico, has more than twice the incidence rate of the national average, probably on account of its proximity to the United States.  Its mortality rate is 21%, far greater than Mexico’s national average.  It is a source of concern that the virus may sweep from there into the interior, which Mexico’s medical system is ill-equipped to handle.  Mexico’s testing is very limited compared to that of other countries, so the actual number of cases may be far greater than what is actually reported.  Mexico City is particularly vulnerable; it is home to twenty million people, who live in extremely close proximity to one another.  In addition, many Mexicans have underlying factors such as obesity and diabetes. 

Memorial Day is looming ahead.  By that time many if not all states will have lifted the greater part of their lockdown restrictions.  Memorial Day traditionally involves large, indeed enormous, gatherings and also signifies the opening of the beach season in many localities.  It is not realistic to suppose that millions of people will exercise self-restraint.  It is almost certain that the festivities usually observed on this day will greatly impede the effort to stop the virus from spreading and may even initiate a new wave of infections.

Outside of some isolated microstates in Micronesia and Oceania, three countries claim to have been untouched by the virus:  North Korea, Turkmenistan, and Lesotho.  The dubiety of North Korea’s claim, especially in light of its 880-mile border with China, has already been mentioned.  Indeed, fear of contracting the virus may account for the relative infrequency of Kim Jong-un’s public appearances this year.  Turkmenistan is somewhat less totalitarian than North Korea, but its former ruler was a personality cult type of dictator who imposed his extremely eccentric tastes upon the entire nation – for example, he banned both opera and circuses because they were “insufficiently Turkmen.”  Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow, the current president, has eliminated the most peculiar of the prohibitions and has opened up the country to some extent, but torture and suppression are still daily occurrences there.  So the government is no more likely to admit to coronavirus cases than North Korea; in addition, it doesn’t have access to reliable testing.  The situation of Lesotho is rather different.  Its government is fairly chaotic – its Prime Minister, Thomas Thabane, is currently laboring under a change of the murder of his first wife and has just announced that he will be stepping down from office this coming July – but it is also isolated, being landlocked, extremely mountainous, and surrounded entirely by a single country.  It does have some tourism, but not much; and of course the recent travel restrictions have reduced any influx of foreign visitors it might normally receive.  Like many African nations, it has had experience in managing outbreaks of contagious disease, and when the virus became a threat it locked down its border early.  It may well be, therefore, that the number of cases there at the moment is very small.  But the probabilities are that there are a scattered few in the country, and the current instability of the government will prove to be a major distraction from any attempts at controlling the virus if it breaks out within their border.

Today’s statistics as of 7:30 PM — # of cases worldwide: 4,009,472; # of deaths worldwide: 275,914; # of cases U.S.: 1,320,683; # of deaths U.S.: 78,557.  The incidence rate in the U.S. is now greater than that of Italy, once considered the nation in the most dire straits.  The mortality rate, it is true, is considerably lower.  Italy’s lockdown has been more severe than ours, but now the Italians are allowed to go outside for exercise.  Church services will resume on May 18^th, although strict social distancing will be observed.  All worshippers will be required to wear face masks.  Spain’s lockdown has also been severe, with people being greatly limited as to the amount of time that they can spend out of doors; and all streets are patrolled to enforce this restriction.  Both countries have reason to be wary; they have undergone huge losses – nearly 27,000 in Italy, over 30,000 in Spain.  They also have many active cases, but the number of severe cases is steadily declining.  President Bolsonaro of Brazil continues to take the matter with characteristic insouciance.  “Brazilians should be studied, we don’t catch anything. You see people jumping in sewage, diving in it and nothing happens to them.”  And Donald Trump himself might be nonplussed by this touching display of sympathy for the victims in his country who have already been claimed by the virus:  “I’m sorry for the situation we are currently living with due to the virus. We express our solidarity to those who have lost loved ones, many of whom were elderly. But that’s life, it could be me tomorrow.”  In fact, I must say this on behalf of Bolsonaro:  his responses to the crisis are so bizarre that he makes President Trump seem almost normal in comparison.

Morning statistics – President Bolsonaro – Russia – Most likely places to catch COVID-19 – Ambiguous evidence about advantages and disadvantages of smoking – Hiking on the W&OD Trail – Roses at Bon Air – Russia again and Moscow in particular – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 7:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 3,841,666; # of deaths worldwide: 265,589; # of cases U.S.: 1,263,243; # of deaths U.S.: 74,809.

President Bolsonaro of Brazil, when questioned about the mortality rate of the virus in that country:  “Sorry, but what do you want me to do?  My name is Messiah, but I can’t work miracles.”  He makes President Trump seem a model of efficiency and compassion in comparison.  Brazil is now getting several thousand new cases a day.  It is ninth on the list of case numbers by nation on an absolute scale.  Its daily death toll may go up to 800 by May 11^th.  Paraguay has dug a trench along the border with Brazil to prevent people from going across the border undetected.  It has taken the opposite tack from Brazil, initiating a lockdown early and prohibiting travel to and from any other country. 

As predicted, Russia’s case count has also moved it up on the list, now surpassing that of France and Germany.  Only the U.S., Spain, Italy, and the U.K. have a higher number of case counts now.  The Russians are taking the matter somewhat more seriously than the Brazilians.  Borders are closed, the elderly and other groups at risk are in quarantine, Muscovites are obliged to wear gloves and masks when traveling in public, and lockdown restrictions are easing more gradually than in Western Europe.  Its measures may be having some effect, since the death toll is relatively low. 

According to one article the following are the most likely places to catch the virus:  elevators, grocery stores (especially at the checkout counter), airplane travel, subways and buses, public restrooms, hospitals, and being too close with a family member who has already contracted COVID-19.  Of these, the only one that affects me personally is the item about grocery stores.  I’ve been trying to limit my visits to them and I always wear a mask when I enter one, but I end up going to one at least once every five or six days. 

There is a recent article that claims that smokers are less likely to be infected by the virus than non-smokers.  On the page for that article there is a link to another article that says that smokers are 14 times more likely to develop severe respiratory disease from the virus.  So what are we to do?  Should we take up smoking or avoid it at all costs?  As Alexander Pope said, who shall decide when doctors disagree?

Today I walked along the W&OD Trail.  One cannot really call it a hike.  It is flat and paved, and shared by bicyclists and pedestrians.  In some areas there is a parallel path of crushed stone that is meant for pedestrians only, but it is not continuous and in any case bicyclists frequently disregard the restrictions.  I started at Vienna and went as far as Bon Air Park, about seven miles each way.  At Bon Air I went about the Rose Garden.  The Garden itself is closed, but one can view the roses from the perimeter.  It is a little early for full bloom, especially on account of the cool and wet weather we have been having.  It has been very wet – rain in 12 days out of the last 14 – and the temperatures have been more typical of spring in Chicago than here.  We will be continuing to have cool temperatures until a week from now.  But the roses were beginning to appear, especially on a couple of trellises in the garden, and their scent was faint but readily discernable. 

Even at this stage people still do not fall back into single file when approaching someone coming from the opposite direction.  And the women in this respect are even more discourteous than the men.

More news from Russia:  there are now three Cabinet members who are afflicted – the Prime Minister, the construction minister, and the Minister of Culture.  Moscow’s lockdown (much more restrictive than that of any of the states here) is extended to May 31^st.  Officially Moscow has 92,676 cases but the actual number may be as high as 300,000.  The tests that the city has been using are unreliable at detecting the virus in early stages, resulting in thousands of false negative results. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:30 PM — # of cases worldwide: 3,913,559; # of deaths worldwide: 270,422; # of cases U.S.: 1,292,594; # of deaths U.S.: 76,926.  The incidence rate in the U.S. is now nearly 0.4% of the population. The number of new cases is said to be declining in Spain and Italy; but still the increase today was over 3,000 in Spain and nearly 1,500 in Italy.