Morning statistics – Rainy weather – Re-opening schedules – Israel – Closing of the field hospital in Manhattan – Disturbing developments in Brazil – The sourdough starter again – Evening statistics
Today’s statistics as of 9:30 AM — # of cases worldwide: 3,507,442; # of deaths worldwide: 245,241; # of cases U.S.: 1,162,049; # of deaths U.S.: 67,492. Our incidence rate with respect to other nations is steadily growing higher. The nations with the highest incidence rates are now, in decreasing order, Spain, Belgium, Ireland, U.S., Italy, Switzerland, Singapore, France, Portugal, and the Netherlands. Previously we were the seventh on this list, now we are the fourth. The nations with the highest mortality rates are now Belgium, Spain, Italy, U.K, France, the Netherlands, Sweden, Ireland, U.S, and Portugal. We are still the ninth on this list, although the relative rankings of the other nations have shifted.
More rain today! The spring season has certainly been lovely but it has also been quite wet. We normally get a little over three inches of rain for the month of April, but this year it’s been twice that amount.
States have begun to re-open but the death toll in the nation yesterday was nearly 3,000 – the largest amount in a single day. One must not automatically assume a cause and effect between the two. Many of the deaths have undoubtedly been pending for several days. But governors may put a break on the lifting of lockdown restrictions if we don’t see a continual decline in new cases.
Schools are re-opening in Israel. Israel has slightly less than nine million people, but its incidence rate is little over that of the Scandinavian nations and its mortality rate is lower – less than 1.5%. Nonetheless the exit strategy there appears to be nearly as chaotic as our own. For a long time the lockdown restrictions stated that people should venture no more than 500 meters from their homes; this fiat was almost unilaterally ignored. Social distancing is practiced very sporadically and hardly anyone is wearing a mask. The Health Ministry has protested the laxity of this behavior, but it itself is in a state of disarray. Yaakov Litzman – he who stated that the virus is a divine punishment – has been forced to resign, and no one wants to take his place. At this point the nation still has well over 6,000 active cases, although only 103 of them are considered critical; but this policy of rushing matters may alter that happy state of affairs.
The field hospital in Central Park is scheduled to close in two weeks, as the numbers of new cases in New York City are seeing a heartening trend of decline.
Manaus, a city in Brazil of slightly over 2 million, may see as many as 4,200 burials this month. The city’s health care system is in ruins, with all of its intensive-care beds occupied and hundreds of patients left untreated. Brazil officially has 97,100 cases and 6,761 deaths, but experts say that the actual numbers may be – indeed, probably are – about 15 times greater. If that estimate turns out to be correct, it means that Brazil is second only to Spain in the greatest percentages of cases per population and to Spain and Belgium in the greatest percentages of deaths per population. Edmar Santos, the secretary of health for Rio de Janeiro, says that the health care system of the entire nation might collapse within a month.
The weather cleared up towards the end of the day, so I was able to get in a few miles and do some yardwork besides. The early spring blossoms are gone now, but the azaleas are flowering and the irises are beginning to bloom. Afterwards I took a look at the sourdough starter, and it had an encouragingly spongy appearance. So I mixed the batter and set it aside overnight for the first rising. We’ll see if I have more success this time. As an acquaintance of mine who was given to malapropisms would say, “It’s in the laps of the cards.”
Today’s statistics as of 11:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 3,566,197; # of deaths worldwide: 248,285; # of cases U.S.: 1,188,122; # of deaths U.S.: 68,568. China claims to have less than 500 active cases now. In both Spain and Italy the recovery rate is now outpacing the rate of new infections. In both Russia and Brazil, however, the daily number of new cases is accelerating.