Morning statistics – President Bolsonaro – Russia – Most likely places to catch COVID-19 – Ambiguous evidence about advantages and disadvantages of smoking – Hiking on the W&OD Trail – Roses at Bon Air – Russia again and Moscow in particular – Evening statistics
Today’s statistics as of 7:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 3,841,666; # of deaths worldwide: 265,589; # of cases U.S.: 1,263,243; # of deaths U.S.: 74,809.
President Bolsonaro of Brazil, when questioned about the mortality rate of the virus in that country: “Sorry, but what do you want me to do? My name is Messiah, but I can’t work miracles.” He makes President Trump seem a model of efficiency and compassion in comparison. Brazil is now getting several thousand new cases a day. It is ninth on the list of case numbers by nation on an absolute scale. Its daily death toll may go up to 800 by May 11th. Paraguay has dug a trench along the border with Brazil to prevent people from going across the border undetected. It has taken the opposite tack from Brazil, initiating a lockdown early and prohibiting travel to and from any other country.
As predicted, Russia’s case count has also moved it up on the list, now surpassing that of France and Germany. Only the U.S., Spain, Italy, and the U.K. have a higher number of case counts now. The Russians are taking the matter somewhat more seriously than the Brazilians. Borders are closed, the elderly and other groups at risk are in quarantine, Muscovites are obliged to wear gloves and masks when traveling in public, and lockdown restrictions are easing more gradually than in Western Europe. Its measures may be having some effect, since the death toll is relatively low.
According to one article the following are the most likely places to catch the virus: elevators, grocery stores (especially at the checkout counter), airplane travel, subways and buses, public restrooms, hospitals, and being too close with a family member who has already contracted COVID-19. Of these, the only one that affects me personally is the item about grocery stores. I’ve been trying to limit my visits to them and I always wear a mask when I enter one, but I end up going to one at least once every five or six days.
There is a recent article that claims that smokers are less likely to be infected by the virus than non-smokers. On the page for that article there is a link to another article that says that smokers are 14 times more likely to develop severe respiratory disease from the virus. So what are we to do? Should we take up smoking or avoid it at all costs? As Alexander Pope said, who shall decide when doctors disagree?
Today I walked along the W&OD Trail. One cannot really call it a hike. It is flat and paved, and shared by bicyclists and pedestrians. In some areas there is a parallel path of crushed stone that is meant for pedestrians only, but it is not continuous and in any case bicyclists frequently disregard the restrictions. I started at Vienna and went as far as Bon Air Park, about seven miles each way. At Bon Air I went about the Rose Garden. The Garden itself is closed, but one can view the roses from the perimeter. It is a little early for full bloom, especially on account of the cool and wet weather we have been having. It has been very wet – rain in 12 days out of the last 14 – and the temperatures have been more typical of spring in Chicago than here. We will be continuing to have cool temperatures until a week from now. But the roses were beginning to appear, especially on a couple of trellises in the garden, and their scent was faint but readily discernable.
Even at this stage people still do not fall back into single file when approaching someone coming from the opposite direction. And the women in this respect are even more discourteous than the men.
More news from Russia: there are now three Cabinet members who are afflicted – the Prime Minister, the construction minister, and the Minister of Culture. Moscow’s lockdown (much more restrictive than that of any of the states here) is extended to May 31st. Officially Moscow has 92,676 cases but the actual number may be as high as 300,000. The tests that the city has been using are unreliable at detecting the virus in early stages, resulting in thousands of false negative results.
Today’s statistics as of 8:30 PM — # of cases worldwide: 3,913,559; # of deaths worldwide: 270,422; # of cases U.S.: 1,292,594; # of deaths U.S.: 76,926. The incidence rate in the U.S. is now nearly 0.4% of the population. The number of new cases is said to be declining in Spain and Italy; but still the increase today was over 3,000 in Spain and nearly 1,500 in Italy.