Morning statistics – Two right-wing conspiracy theorists and slanderers (I take full responsibility for this tautology) – Marilee Shapiro Asher – More rain and chill – The schedule for lifting restrictions in Virginia – Mexico – Memorial Day celebrations may create issues – Three countries with no reports of the virus – Evening statistics – The doubtful sanity of President Bolsonaro
Today’s statistics as of 7:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 3,934,813; # of deaths worldwide: 271,095; # of cases U.S.: 1,292,879; # of deaths U.S.: 76,942. At the rate Russia is going, it will soon overtake the U.K. and Italy in the absolute number of case counts. Its mortality rate is low (less than 1%) but it will go up as the more recent cases come to a resolution. Brazil’s case count is also increasing rapidly. It is now eighth on the list of nations on an absolute scale of case counts. Sweden’s mortality rate is now 12.5%. The U.K. is now has the highest number of deaths of all the European countries, more than 30,000. Its mortality rate is nearly 15%. On the other hand, Spain and Italy both appear to have flattered the curve; the number of new cases and of deaths per day has been going steadily downwards. China’s number of active cases is now down (reportedly) to 260.
On April 21st Jacob Wohl and Jack Burkman, notorious far-right conspiracy theorists, reported that a woman accused Dr. Fauci of sexual harassment. Shortly afterwards the woman, calling herself Diana Rodriguez, confirmed this account. Ten days later she told a journalist that her real name is Diana Andrade and that she made these allegations only because she was paid to do so by Wohl and Burkman. The attempt to slander Fauci with false accusations was clumsy enough, but this is not the first time that Wohl and Burkman have made such attempts: Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg, Robert Mueller, Kamala Harris, and Ilhan Omar have all endured similar treatment. The two men are nothing but blackmailers, and why they haven’t been arraigned is a mystery.
In all fairness I doubt whether President Trump is personally involved with the two. His attitude towards them is probably like that of Pompey in Antony and Cleopatra when Menas proposes to assassinate Antony, Lepidus, and Octavian while they are too drunk to make any resistance:
. . . Ah, this thou should have done And not have spoke on’t! In me 'tis villainy, In thee’t had been good service.
In all probability Trump has not been in contact with Wohl and Burkman, but he certainly has made no attempt to repudiate them. It is only too likely that he appreciates their “good service.”
Marilee Shapiro Asher, a painter and sculptor whose works have been displayed in the Smithsonian, contracted the virus in March but recovered without having to resort to a ventilator. This is the second pandemic she survived; the first one was the Spanish flu of 1918, when she was 6 years old. She is now 107. At one point the doctor in attendance said that she had no more than 12 hours to live, to which her daughter responded, “Well, he doesn’t know my mother, does he?”
Yet another rainy day! I managed to get out and take a loop of about 7 miles before it started. The rain will pass later on, but tomorrow will be quite cold, less than 50 degrees (10 degrees Celsius). We may even get a touch of snow. Afterwards a warming trend will begin, but we will not be seeing seasonable temperatures until late next week.
Even as Virginia plans to lift restrictions, the number of cases in Fairfax County is increasing exponentially. The greater part of these occurs in the health care industry, particularly those who work in nursing homes. Even if matters are improving in other parts of the state, we are by no means over this hurdle yet. As it is, non-essential businesses will still not be able to open until May 15th. (Originally they were scheduled to re-open today.) At that point one may get haircuts but will require appointments to do so. Dining out will be possible again, but fewer tables will be available on account of spacing requirements. People may go to gyms but may have to wait longer to get in, since there will be limits on how many may use one simultaneously. State parks will be re-opened, but only for use during the daytime. The prognostics for the state seem favorable on the whole. Hospitalizations are no longer overwhelming the health care system and projections are considerably less than they were earlier. Much of the increase in the incidence rate is due to the increased availability of testing. The mortality rate is reassuringly low.
Tijuana, Mexico, has more than twice the incidence rate of the national average, probably on account of its proximity to the United States. Its mortality rate is 21%, far greater than Mexico’s national average. It is a source of concern that the virus may sweep from there into the interior, which Mexico’s medical system is ill-equipped to handle. Mexico’s testing is very limited compared to that of other countries, so the actual number of cases may be far greater than what is actually reported. Mexico City is particularly vulnerable; it is home to twenty million people, who live in extremely close proximity to one another. In addition, many Mexicans have underlying factors such as obesity and diabetes.
Memorial Day is looming ahead. By that time many if not all states will have lifted the greater part of their lockdown restrictions. Memorial Day traditionally involves large, indeed enormous, gatherings and also signifies the opening of the beach season in many localities. It is not realistic to suppose that millions of people will exercise self-restraint. It is almost certain that the festivities usually observed on this day will greatly impede the effort to stop the virus from spreading and may even initiate a new wave of infections.
Outside of some isolated microstates in Micronesia and Oceania, three countries claim to have been untouched by the virus: North Korea, Turkmenistan, and Lesotho. The dubiety of North Korea’s claim, especially in light of its 880-mile border with China, has already been mentioned. Indeed, fear of contracting the virus may account for the relative infrequency of Kim Jong-un’s public appearances this year. Turkmenistan is somewhat less totalitarian than North Korea, but its former ruler was a personality cult type of dictator who imposed his extremely eccentric tastes upon the entire nation – for example, he banned both opera and circuses because they were “insufficiently Turkmen.” Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow, the current president, has eliminated the most peculiar of the prohibitions and has opened up the country to some extent, but torture and suppression are still daily occurrences there. So the government is no more likely to admit to coronavirus cases than North Korea; in addition, it doesn’t have access to reliable testing. The situation of Lesotho is rather different. Its government is fairly chaotic – its Prime Minister, Thomas Thabane, is currently laboring under a change of the murder of his first wife and has just announced that he will be stepping down from office this coming July – but it is also isolated, being landlocked, extremely mountainous, and surrounded entirely by a single country. It does have some tourism, but not much; and of course the recent travel restrictions have reduced any influx of foreign visitors it might normally receive. Like many African nations, it has had experience in managing outbreaks of contagious disease, and when the virus became a threat it locked down its border early. It may well be, therefore, that the number of cases there at the moment is very small. But the probabilities are that there are a scattered few in the country, and the current instability of the government will prove to be a major distraction from any attempts at controlling the virus if it breaks out within their border.
Today’s statistics as of 7:30 PM — # of cases worldwide: 4,009,472; # of deaths worldwide: 275,914; # of cases U.S.: 1,320,683; # of deaths U.S.: 78,557. The incidence rate in the U.S. is now greater than that of Italy, once considered the nation in the most dire straits. The mortality rate, it is true, is considerably lower. Italy’s lockdown has been more severe than ours, but now the Italians are allowed to go outside for exercise. Church services will resume on May 18th, although strict social distancing will be observed. All worshippers will be required to wear face masks. Spain’s lockdown has also been severe, with people being greatly limited as to the amount of time that they can spend out of doors; and all streets are patrolled to enforce this restriction. Both countries have reason to be wary; they have undergone huge losses – nearly 27,000 in Italy, over 30,000 in Spain. They also have many active cases, but the number of severe cases is steadily declining. President Bolsonaro of Brazil continues to take the matter with characteristic insouciance. “Brazilians should be studied, we don’t catch anything. You see people jumping in sewage, diving in it and nothing happens to them.” And Donald Trump himself might be nonplussed by this touching display of sympathy for the victims in his country who have already been claimed by the virus: “I’m sorry for the situation we are currently living with due to the virus. We express our solidarity to those who have lost loved ones, many of whom were elderly. But that’s life, it could be me tomorrow.” In fact, I must say this on behalf of Bolsonaro: his responses to the crisis are so bizarre that he makes President Trump seem almost normal in comparison.