Morning statistics – Discretion the better part of valor – Shenandoah National Park – Burke Lake and Lake Mercer – Social distancing on the trails – The spring season advances – The bars of Wisconsin – A funeral takes its death toll – Low death rate in Russia – Effects of the virus in Iran – Trump on the immunity of young children – Allergies mimicking the virus – Evening statistics
Today’s statistics as of 8:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 4,454,038; # of deaths worldwide: 298,774; # of cases U.S.: 1,430,348; # of deaths U.S.: 85,197.
Our country has been – but a thought occurs to me, somewhat belatedly perhaps. During the course of these notes I have been referring to friends and personal acquaintances by their initials only instead of their full names, in case they might not like it if the notes become public. For figures whose names are already reported in the newspapers I have naturally shown less restraint and have used their full names. It now occurs to me that if this memoir should be brought to the attention of our President, he might take it into his head to make himself personally disagreeable to me; and he is not without subtlety and some ingenuity when he chooses to make himself disagreeable. Mere prudence dictates that I observe the same amount of discretion towards him that I have shown to others.
So, as I was saying, our country has been suffering from a sad attack of DT lately . . .
Shenandoah National Park will be re-opening in phases, starting with portions of Skyline Drive and the trails. The various facilities at Dickey Ridge, Elkwallow, Loft Mtn., etc., will probably remain closed for some time to come. Even though it is a national park, the management will be taking its cue from Virginia’s schedule of phased re-opening. At this point no date has been set, but with luck we will be able to hike there in June. My friend LH reports that she has seen cars parked at the Panorama lot just outside of SNP, which means that people are getting on the trails anyway, despite the fact that they are officially closed and that people are forbidden to cross the boundary into the park itself.
This observation led me to try getting into Burke Park by parking in a residential area that adjoins the main trail around the lake. It worked perfectly; there were many cars in the neighborhood where a short dirt path goes between the street and the main lake trail, and when I got onto the trail it was evident that many others had chosen this option. In addition, as I discovered on my return home, several cars were parked along the shoulder of Rte. 123 nearby to the closed entrances. Since the circuit around the loop is less than six miles, even when taking the segment that adheres to the curves of the lakeshore instead of the straight paved path, I went along the South Run Trail to do the Lake Mercer loop as well. Both the South Run Trail and the Lake Mercer loop pass by many other residential neighborhoods, and many people had taken advantage of this proximity to use the trails despite the closure of the official entrances; yet on the whole there were less people than usual. It was cool and very cloudy, but not cold and without rain. Both lakes are artificial, being created from dams that are used for flood control. They are quite scenic nonetheless; Burke Lake in particular contains an islet that is used as a sanctuary for waterfowl, and in addition to the usual geese, ducks, and loons it is possible to see herons as well and even a bald eagle or two on occasion.
People behaved fairly well on the whole. Bikers were less likely than before to ride in tandem and most people were careful about the social distancing guidelines. There was room for improvement, of course. About a third of the couples I encountered would not fall into single file when one approached them from the opposite direction, but the trail was broad enough to make this matter less than it might have done on mountain trails, which tend to be narrower. The majority of the dog owners had their dogs on leashes and were conscientious about pulling them aside as other pedestrians approached them. There was indeed one darling Mr. Muffykins without any leash at all, whose playful gambols threatened to impede my progress and to whom I was on the verge of administering a polite kick for the purpose of sending it spinning across the trail; when its owners happily called it back to their side, and the encounter passed without incident.
Most of the flowers of early and mid-spring are past their bloom now. The blackberry bushes, however, were flowering, which is an encouraging sign. If by any chance the effects of the virus should lead to a food shortage in the summer, I can venture into certain areas of the forest where I happen to be aware of concentrations of such bushes and pluck as many berries as I may need, and thus of dessert at any rate I will be able to obtain an abundance.
I should perhaps not be overly severe on the lapses of my fellow-pedestrians on observing social distancing when I compare them to the residents of Wisconsin. Governor Tony Evers’ stay-at-home order was set to expire on May 26th, but the Wisconsin Supreme Court, urged by the Republicans in the legislature, ruled that the mandate was not valid, since the governor did not work it out with the state legislature. This decision was announced yesterday, and when it came out the bars immediately opened their doors again and patrons flocked to fill them, none of them wearing masks, as densely packed together as members of the congregation of an evangelical church.
A group of mourners attended a funeral in South Carolina during the first week of March, before the social distancing guidelines went into effect on March 16th. A large number of them congregated together and, unknown to any of them, one of them was already infected. At this point six of them have died from the virus.
Although Russia has the third largest number of coronavirus cases in the world at this point, its mortality rate is suspiciously low: 0.9%, while countries such as France, the U.K., and Italy are in the 12%-14% range. However, Russia does not appear to be counting deaths in which the virus was a proximate factor. The WHO is currently discussing the matter with Russian authorities, several of whom at any rate profess to be anxious about the accuracy of their assessments and who may be willing to recalculate the death tally.
Iranians appear to be chafing under their regime as a result of its handling of the virus. Despite the warnings from Iran’s Minister of Health, the government insisted on holding public celebrations for the anniversary of the Islamic Revolution (February 11th) before issuing guidelines about social distancing, many religious leaders kept mosques open while the infections multiplied, and the Fatimah Masumeh of Qom was also kept open well after infections were detected. Medical equipment is in short supply at hospitals and many Iranians are voluntarily helping out by contributing masks, gowns, and food. The numbers of cases and of deaths have been consistently under-reported – by as much as a factor of 8-10, according to some experts. The government is essentially split into two parts: the elected government headed by President Hassan Rouhani and the Revolutionary Guard of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Khamenei has the real power, but the growing unpopularity of the Revolutionary Guard may give Rouhani the opportunity to dislodge them. The collapse of oil prices is aggravating tensions as well.
It is difficult to know what outcome to hope for. I remember working in 1983 for the University Research Foundation on a project whose staff included several Iranian emigrés. I asked one of them when he thought his country would return to a less authoritarian government after the changes brought about by the 1979 revolution. He replied sadly, “The country is trashed and it will remain that way for a long time. It will not be fit to live in during my lifetime.”
Donald Trump has urged re-opening schools on the grounds that “this is a disease that attacks old people” and “it’s had very little impact on young people.” These remarks contradict the warnings of Dr. Fauci, whom I believe to be slightly better informed on such matters, to say nothing of the documented deaths among children as little as five years old. And even if it were shown that the virus miraculously spares all children, the teachers are somewhat older and thus more susceptible. There are times when, even with the most charitable feelings towards President Trump, you can’t help thinking that he ought to be in some sort of a home.
I spoke with RK tonight. She has been suffering allergies from the pollen. One complication is that the symptoms can initially be similar to those of the virus. However, she has no fever and no debilitating fatigue, so the chances are she is undergoing the usual issues she faces at this time of year. She has been much more cautious than I have, getting all of her groceries delivered and hardly venturing outside at all. It’s unlikely that she contracted the virus when she has been following such a degree of self-isolation.
Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 4,520,682; # of deaths worldwide: 303,065; # of cases U.S.: 1,456,268; # of deaths U.S.: 86,895. Brazil’s case count, having surpassed that of France, is now about to forge ahead of Italy’s. Spain and Italy continue to get numerous new cases, but the number of cases that are still active has gone steadily downward in both countries.