Month: May 2020

Morning statistics – More bad news from Europe – The status of Turkey – The Democratic primary election in New York – Neil Ferguson – The Defenestrations of Russia – Bank services – Mid-spring – Donald Trump’s sleeping difficulties – The schedule of easing of restrictions in Texas – Cynthia Covert and the alligator – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 3,751,203; # of deaths worldwide: 259,268; # of cases U.S.: 1,238,083; # of deaths U.S.: 72,285. China claims to have brought its number of active cases down to less than 350.  In South Korea the number of active cases is still over 1,200 but only 55 of these are rated as severe.  New Zealand has 101 active cases, with 2 rated as severe.  Australia has 794 active cases, with 27 rated as severe.  Taiwan has 94 active cases, none of them severe.  Vietnam has 39 active cases, 8 of them severe.  The virus has not claimed any deaths in Vietnam to date. 

All of these encouraging figures come from the other side of the Pacific.  In other areas, especially European ones, the figures are grim.  Spain’s death rate is still high.  Russia’s incidence rate is steadily increasing.  Already it is seventh on the list on the scale of absolute number of cases, leading all nations except U.S., Spain, Italy, U.K., France, and Germany.  In Germany the number of cases is growing, but the mortality rate remains relatively low, at a little over 4%.  The mortality rates for France and the U.K., in contrast, are both about 15%.  Sweden’s mortality rate is over 12%, considerably higher than that of its Scandinavian neighbors.   

Turkey has had a fairly large number of cases but its incidence rate is considerably below that of most countries in Western Europe and its mortality rate is less than 3%.  Some of the restrictions there are being lifted, such as inter-city travel and the curfew imposed on the elderly and persons less than 20 years old.   

The state of New York canceled the Democratic primary last week.  Biden is already the presumed Democratic candidate, leading Douglas Kellner, a co-chairman of the New York Board of Elections, to say that such an event was “unnecessary and frivolous.”  However, Andrew Yang, one of the other Democratic candidates, brought a suit to contest this action and the judge has ruled in his favor.  That is encouraging news.  I can understand postponing a primary election under the circumstances but canceling it altogether would set a dangerous trend.   Biden is in all probability destined to run against Trump in November, but he should be duly elected to his candidature, not crowned.

Yet another story that illustrates how public officials believe that rules apply to everyone but themselves:  Neil Ferguson, an epidemiologist from Imperial College and a member of the government’s scientific advisory panel, developed models that were critical in the development of the government’s lockdown restrictions.  The restrictions are more severe than they are in the U.S.; people are prohibited from visiting friends and family that they don’t live with.  Recently it was discovered that his married lover has taken trips across London to visit him at his invitation.  He resigned from his position on the panel after a reporter made public the fact that his disregard of the rules that he himself developed is even greater than his disregard of the seventh Commandment.  This is not the only case in the U.K. of a highly placed official resigning after the disclosure of the assumption of special privileges.  Catherine Calderwood, the chief medical officer of Scotland, also had to resign after a photograph in the papers showed her at her family’s second home, several miles from her Edinburgh address.  What is particularly striking about these violations is that they were not made as a result of pressing domestic difficulties or indeed of any kind of circumstance that might cause a conflict of interest; the people concerned were merely unwilling to endure the inconveniences that they imposed upon millions of others.

I cannot help contrasting these displays with the conduct of the one epidemiologist whom I know personally.  She imposes greater restrictions on herself than the state does on others; she will not, for instance, use public transportation even though the buses and the Metro are still operative and she has not undertaken any unnecessary travel whatever, even though we are permitted to go out for the purposes of recreation and exercise. 

Prague has had a notable defenestration some centuries ago, but several Russian locations have recently been making a similar bid for fame.  The head doctor of a hospital in the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, the head of the emergency medical service at Star City (the main training base for Russia’s cosmonauts), and an ambulance doctor in Voronezh, a city about 320 miles south of Moscow, have all “fallen” out of windows in their hospitals.  Alexander Shulepov, the ambulance doctor, is in critical condition; the other two have already died from their injuries.  Each one of them spoke disparagingly about the nation’s policies and the poor state of Russia’s health care system, and by implication about the Putin administration itself.  Vladimir Putin evidently is not the sort of man who accepts criticism tamely.  No wonder he and Trump are such bosom companions!

I went on some errands today and on the way back I passed by my bank.  It is closed like all of the others, but drive-in services are now available – have been so, in fact, for some days.  It goes against the grain, however, to drive to a building that I can reach within the course of a seven-minute walk.  I will rely on the ATM to the greatest extent possible.  The paperwork associated with my father’s death in November was for the most part completed before the lockdown restrictions began, so I do not foresee the need to get any more documents notarized.

The early spring flowers have faded and new ones are rapidly taking their place.  The irises in the garden began to open up today.  Here and there one sees spiderwort in gardens and growing wild.  The Virginia spiderwort, which is the most common variety here (although it actually is a native of Missouri), is notable for its vivid deep-purple petals. 

Donald Trump announced that he is unable to sleep at nights on account of his concern for the coronavirus victims.  Happily, if his figure provides any indication, his appetite appears unimpaired.

Texas began easing its lockdown restrictions on May 1^st, with retail stores, restaurants, movie theatres, malls, museums, and libraries re-opening, although subject to occupancy limitations.  All interactive facilities at these remain closed.  Public swimming pools, bars, gyms, cosmetology salons, massage establishments, interactive amusement venues, such as bowling alleys and video arcades, and tattoo and piercing studios have not yet been allowed to re-open.  Even this relatively limited easement of restrictions, however, may have been premature; the state has had some of the highest spikes in the number of cases within the past three days. 

Cynthia Covert, a salon worker, visited Kiawan Island in South Carolina to give her friend a manicure.  She became fascinated by the sight of an alligator in a nearby pond and, despite the pleas of her friend, waded into the pond to pet it.  The friend warned her that the alligator had seized and eaten a deer from that same spot just a few days ago, but Covert airily replied “I don’t look like a deer.”  When she reached the water, the alligator promptly grabbed her and, despite the efforts of onlookers, pulled her under, drowning her.  The alligator then began to feast on Covert’s limbs.  It had never eaten human flesh before, but reportedly it thought that the meat tasted just like chicken.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 3,818,576; # of deaths worldwide: 264,807; # of cases U.S.: 1,262,692; # of deaths U.S.: 74,791.  Russia is quickly imploding.  Already its case incidence count is close to Germany’s.  At this rate it will overtake both Germany and France in 24 hours, which will place it fifth on the list of nations with the greatest absolute number of cases.  Brazil’s incidence rate is also increasing with great speed.  Spain’s incidence rate is now nearly 0.55% of its population.  Peru has taken aggressive quarantine measures, but the virus is spreading there quickly. 

Hiking on the Roller Coaster – Increased traffic on roads – Details of the easing of restrictions – The sourdough starter put to use – The threatened invasion of cicadas in the U.S. – The actual invasion of locusts in Eastern Africa – Evening statistics

Today I hiked with the Vigorous Hikers, although that statement is not quite accurate.  At this point we are not really hiking together.  We assemble at a trailhead and then complete the hike, each starting at a different time and going at a different speed.  It was a there-and-back hike.  I started early, so I did not even encounter any of the others during the first part of the hike except for one who started earlier still and who was returning when I was approaching the turnaround point.  The hike was along a portion of the so-called “roller coaster” of the Appalachian Trail, starting at Snickers Gap and going to the Blackburn Center.  The Center was closed, of course, and in any case I got there before 10:30, much too early to have lunch there.  The Center can be reached by two spur trails, so that made for a small loop at the midpoint, descending to the Center by one of them and ascending back to the AT via the other.  The day was cloudy and overcast, very different from the day before, and it was considerably cooler.  This segment of the AT is very rocky in spots and was rather slow going.  It was 16 miles and 3600 feet of elevation gain, and it took me nearly 5½ hours to complete.  The highlight of the hike was the view at Crescent Rocks overlooking the Blue Ridge Mountains and the Shenandoah Valley to the southeast.

There are decidedly more cars on the roads now.  Not enough to create traffic jams, but there were plenty of cars waiting wherever I had to stop for a red light.  Restrictions are scheduled to be lifted soon, and people are obviously in the mood for it.  At this point the plan is to allow the non-essential businesses to re-open over the following week.  Gatherings of more than ten people will still be prohibited and face masks will still be required for entering stores.  Teleworking will still be in effect wherever possible.  People will be able to get haircuts, but they will have to make appointments in advance.  It will also be possible to dine at restaurants, but less seating will be available than before, so that people can eat at some distance from one another.  It means that restaurants will not be doing as much business; on the other hand, dining out might become less noisy than before and thereby become more comfortable.  Many American restaurants in the past placed tables so close to one another that it could be very difficult to hold a conversation with people at the same table; the ambient chatter from all over the room drowned everything out.  This was true even in many of the expensive ones with the most elaborate menus.  The only exceptions were some of the so-called ethnic restaurants (Japanese, Indian, Thai, etc.). 

The sourdough batter rose a little, but only a little.  Rather than attempt to make it into loaves I added baking powder to it and used it for biscuits.  That worked out pretty well, and I now have plenty to use for breakfasts.  I’m still on the lookout for yeast, though. 

This year will see a new cycle of the cicadas, whose life-cycle is 17 years.  Some articles speak of it as an “invasion” but they are quite harmless.  Certainly we have more important things to worry about at this point.

The same, however, cannot be said of Eastern Africa, where the locust swarms are largest that have been seen for 70 years.  Kenya, Ethiopia, and Somalia are undergoing the greatest impact.  As many as twenty million people have been described as “food insecure.”

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 3,723,745; # of deaths worldwide: 257,975; # of cases U.S.: 1,237,045; # of deaths U.S.: 72,242. 

Morning statistics – The starter is not starting well – Hiking along the Northwest Branch – Childhood memories – Brookside Gardens – Encouraging news from a friend – Invitation to a virtual memorial service – Virtual meeting with hiking board members – PF’s experience with the virus – Schedule of re-openings for Virginia – An example of heroism – Ominous prognostics for Social Security – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 3,585,711; # of deaths worldwide: 248,771; # of cases U.S.: 1,188,870; # of deaths U.S.: 68,606.  The incidence rate in Ireland is now second only to Spain.  However, its mortality rate is far lower.  It is about only a third of that of the U.K.  Sweden’s mortality rate seems to be accelerating.  Both Australia and New Zealand appear to have the virus under control.  In New Zealand none of the active cases are rated as critical.  The two countries are planning to allow travel from one to the other.

The sourdough starter has risen a little but not as much as I had hoped.  I will give it more time but it doesn’t rise any more I will stir in baking powder and salt into the batter and use it to make biscuits.  When I was shopping this morning I was on the lookout for yeast but none was available.  It has been off of the shelves for weeks now.

Today was splendid:  sunny, in the low 70s, without humidity, clear, and dry.  Since I had to shop in the morning I did not wish to drive any great distance, so I went to hike on the Rachel Carson and Northwest Branch Trails, with a side visit to Brookside Gardens.

Hiking along the Northwest Branch of the Anacostia River . . .  that does not, when written down baldly, seem like a particularly enticing description.  Yet it is a sample of the piedmont scenery at its best:  a gently plashing brook meandering through dense woods, with leafy tree limbs arching in a vault over the trail and shafts of sunlight streaming though the foliage, at times illuminating it with a peculiar golden-green tinge.  The two trails are fairly flat, with mild ups and downs; walking along them is not a “workout” but it can provide some very agreeable exertion nonetheless, particularly in the rockier areas of the gorge near Colesville Road.  It is an area that has many memories for me, for I grew in a neighborhood that adjoins one of the trails.

The Northwest Trail is well-maintained now; it was rougher during the days of my childhood and adolescence.  There were no blazes, no signposts, and the Rachel Carson Trail was not even complete; one had to bushwhack a bit on the east side of the river to go all the way from the dam to Kemp Mill Road.  Three rills cross the Northwest Branch Trail as it approaches the dam, and these had no bridges when I was growing up.  Instead we went on top of the cylindrical sewer pipes that projected above the flowing water, which test of balance my brother and I thoroughly enjoyed.  I suppose anxious parents have objected to this arrangement, for there are barriers on top of the pipes now.  There is parking at either end of the trail, but I deliberately parked in my old neighborhood, not far from the house in which I grew up and in which my parents lived for 37 years.  Its exterior, at any rate, has changed curiously little since 1960, the year that we first moved in. Thus in my formative years I always had a fixed point of reference, and perhaps that fact might subtly alter my perceptions from those of men and women who have moved from one place to another during their childhood. 

I look upon my childhood as being rather sheltered for the most part; and yet in some ways it was curiously unsupervised.  I and my brother and nearly every child in the neighborhood would wander in the neighboring woods on his own, and no one then thought that the least odd.  Matters shifted a great deal within the course of a generation.  When I was in my thirties I had a colleague with a step-daughter to whom she was devoted, and it was her custom to take time off work each school day to pick up this girl to transport her home.  When I mentioned how I would walk home from the school or bus stop during my own childhood, she looked at me in horror.  “Oh, I’d never allow her to do that!” she said, in heartfelt tones.  “It’s much too dangerous for anyone that age to be walking alone.”  In the same way, when my brother and I lived in Copenhagen and London during my father’s sabbatical in 1966/67, we used the public transportation on our own as a matter of course.  I was twelve at the time and he was nine.  My British friends assure me that none of them would ever allow a child of theirs to do so now.

A few surprises awaited me when I arrived.  The parking areas at each end had not been closed up, as I had expected them to be.  And there were not many people on the trail.  There were a few, to be sure, but I expected to see a much greater number, considering what a fine day it was and also considering that the two trails are in a network with numerous short spur trails that connect them to various neighborhoods and that provide residents with easy access. 

The loop between the dam and Brookside Gardens using the Northwest Branch Trail on one side of the stream and the Rachel Carson Trail on the other is about 8½ miles.  I extended the hike a bit, however, by going past Colesville Road to the bottom of the gorge before heading back, and then at the other end I spent a good deal of time in Brookside Gardens itself.  That also is very familiar to me; indeed, I was one of its first visitors.  I knew that this time of year was one of the best times to go, since the Azalea Garden would be flowering in full splendor. The approach to the Gude Garden as one ascends, very slightly, from the Azalea Gardens is one of the most artistic I’ve seen in any public garden.  Even at Brookside, though more people were walking there than on the trails, it was not at all crowded. 

I encountered MH, a member of the Wanderbirds club with whom I have enjoyed many hiking trips together.  She gave me news of her husband CB, another club member (indeed I have co-led hikes with him on several occasions).  He had been compelled to undergo chemotherapy recently to contain some cells that might otherwise have formed into tumors, but the treatments are complete now, the cancerous cells have been contained, and he has suffered no bad after-effects.  He is now getting out and covering ten or twelve miles a day on foot.

Upon return, I received a notice about a virtual memorial service for CC’s husband FP.  It uses the Zoom application, which I am not familiar with, so I hope I will be able to use it properly to be able to sign in.

This evening I participated in a virtual meeting with members of the CHC Board.  We were forced to agree that setting up a hike that involves a busload of people is not likely to happen for several months, possibly even beyond the end of the year.  Nonetheless we will keep monitoring the situation to see when it is possible to charter a bus for a group of 40-50 people.  Any activity involving a group of people this large may have to be postponed for some time.  Shenandoah National Park, where many of the club’s hikes take place, still remains completely closed.  No access is permitted even coming from the outside (there are many trails that cross over the park boundary but at this point they are all off-limits within the confines of the park property). 

Also, PF disclosed some more details about his recent illness.  He initially had a fever, which then subsided, and at one point he felt well enough to resume working.  Then it flared up again with renewed force, making him much weaker.  This symptom is apparently not uncommon.  Another point of interest is that he was not tested.  Both he and his physician believe his illness to have been due to the virus, but since his state was never serious enough to require hospitalization it was easier simply to wait it out.  That means that his case and cases like it are not included in the number of virus incidences.  In one way it is encouraging news:  if the number of cases is under-reported, it means that the mortality rate is proportionately much less.  On the other hand, it means that one is more likely to be infected by it.  Even a so-called “mild” case is a troublesome experience; PF, for example was bed-ridden for three weeks. 

There is also the question of where he could have picked it up.  He has been telecommuting and, like everyone else, has been living in a state of isolation.  The most likely explanation is that he contracted it when shopping for groceries.  So it seems advisable to keep shopping excursions to a minimum.  This echoes the advice of my Facebook acquaintance who works in a grocery store:  make a list in advance, buy sufficient food for several days at a time, don’t dawdle in the aisles, don’t chat with other customers, and keep the length of the visit to the store as brief as possible.

Governor Northam is hoping to re-open non-essential businesses on May 15^th for Virginia.  However, he has given a warning that the virus will remain a threat after that date.  (Shenandoah National Park is on a different schedule, since it is a national park, not a state park.  It may remain closed long after the state resumes activity.)

Amid so many stories of incompetence and even sordidness among our leaders, there emerge examples of quiet heroism by people in less high positions.  Paul Cary, a paramedic from Colorado, traveled 1800 miles to aid the embattled EMS services of New York City.  He drove for 27 hours without stopping, alternating driving shifts with another volunteer, and reached New York on March 29^th.  There he tended patients in the back of his ambulance continually until he fell ill himself with the virus.  He died on April 30^th.  Ambulance workers in dozens of EMS vehicles attended the funeral procession, both in New York, where the procession started, up to the point where the coffin was placed on a plane from Newark to Denver, and in Colorado.  He had retired ten years earlier but was continually working and risking his life on a volunteer basis. 

Some experts are worried about the amount of money available for Social Security and say that it is possible that payments may have to be cut by 24% within 15 years or so.  The problem is wide-reaching.  Over 60% of retirees rely on these payments for at least half of their income.  At least a third of them rely on it for 90%-100% of their expenses.  I can understand why younger people might get impatient at the idea of funding so many elderly people who are no longer working, but it has to be remembered that every one of them was compelled to put money they earned into the program.  They had no choice in the matter.  It is only fair that they get their money back in their old age.

It is true, however, that people are living longer and that the ratio of working people to retirees is shrinking.  It’s not easy to see how the situation can be remedied.  If I, for instance, deferred Social Security payments longer than my planned start date in November and re-entered the work force, I would in a very small way be helping to keep the ratio of working people to retirees larger.  But I would also be taking away a job from someone else in the process, someone who might conceivably need that job much more than I do.  The work shortage, which I alluded to earlier, is not going to go away.

From a purely socio-economic point of view, I suppose that the best thing I could do in order to place as little a burden on my fellow-countrymen would be to expire quietly in my sleep when I reach the Biblical threescore-and-ten, which is less than five years from now.  It is, however, a course of action that does not commend itself to me.  I cannot account for it, but so it is.

Today’s statistics as of 8:30 PM — # of cases worldwide: 3,642,068; # of deaths worldwide: 252,024; # of cases U.S.: 1,212,345; # of deaths U.S.: 69,725.  Just under 80% of the cases in the U.S. are still active.  Of these, “only” about 1.5% are rated critical, but that still amounts to over 16,000 people. 

Morning statistics – Rainy weather – Re-opening schedules – Israel – Closing of the field hospital in Manhattan – Disturbing developments in Brazil – The sourdough starter again – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 9:30 AM — # of cases worldwide: 3,507,442; # of deaths worldwide: 245,241; # of cases U.S.: 1,162,049; # of deaths U.S.: 67,492.  Our incidence rate with respect to other nations is steadily growing higher.  The nations with the highest incidence rates are now, in decreasing order, Spain, Belgium, Ireland, U.S., Italy, Switzerland, Singapore, France, Portugal, and the Netherlands.  Previously we were the seventh on this list, now we are the fourth.  The nations with the highest mortality rates are now Belgium, Spain, Italy, U.K, France, the Netherlands, Sweden, Ireland, U.S, and Portugal.  We are still the ninth on this list, although the relative rankings of the other nations have shifted.

More rain today!  The spring season has certainly been lovely but it has also been quite wet.  We normally get a little over three inches of rain for the month of April, but this year it’s been twice that amount. 

States have begun to re-open but the death toll in the nation yesterday was nearly 3,000 – the largest amount in a single day.  One must not automatically assume a cause and effect between the two.  Many of the deaths have undoubtedly been pending for several days.  But governors may put a break on the lifting of lockdown restrictions if we don’t see a continual decline in new cases.

Schools are re-opening in Israel.  Israel has slightly less than nine million people, but its incidence rate is little over that of the Scandinavian nations and its mortality rate is lower – less than 1.5%.  Nonetheless the exit strategy there appears to be nearly as chaotic as our own.  For a long time the lockdown restrictions stated that people should venture no more than 500 meters from their homes; this fiat was almost unilaterally ignored.  Social distancing is practiced very sporadically and hardly anyone is wearing a mask.  The Health Ministry has protested the laxity of this behavior, but it itself is in a state of disarray.  Yaakov Litzman – he who stated that the virus is a divine punishment – has been forced to resign, and no one wants to take his place.  At this point the nation still has well over 6,000 active cases, although only 103 of them are considered critical; but this policy of rushing matters may alter that happy state of affairs.

The field hospital in Central Park is scheduled to close in two weeks, as the numbers of new cases in New York City are seeing a heartening trend of decline.

Manaus, a city in Brazil of slightly over 2 million, may see as many as 4,200 burials this month.  The city’s health care system is in ruins, with all of its intensive-care beds occupied and hundreds of patients left untreated.  Brazil officially has 97,100 cases and 6,761 deaths, but experts say that the actual numbers may be – indeed, probably are – about 15 times greater.  If that estimate turns out to be correct, it means that Brazil is second only to Spain in the greatest percentages of cases per population and to Spain and Belgium in the greatest percentages of deaths per population.  Edmar Santos, the secretary of health for Rio de Janeiro, says that the health care system of the entire nation might collapse within a month.

The weather cleared up towards the end of the day, so I was able to get in a few miles and do some yardwork besides.  The early spring blossoms are gone now, but the azaleas are flowering and the irises are beginning to bloom.  Afterwards I took a look at the sourdough starter, and it had an encouragingly spongy appearance.  So I mixed the batter and set it aside overnight for the first rising.  We’ll see if I have more success this time.  As an acquaintance of mine who was given to malapropisms would say, “It’s in the laps of the cards.”

Today’s statistics as of 11:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 3,566,197; # of deaths worldwide: 248,285; # of cases U.S.: 1,188,122; # of deaths U.S.: 68,568.  China claims to have less than 500 active cases now.  In both Spain and Italy the recovery rate is now outpacing the rate of new infections.  In both Russia and Brazil, however, the daily number of new cases is accelerating.

Morning statistics – Local hiking – Effects of virus on Farmers’ Markets – Dinner at home – The new Press Secretary – Decrease in car crashes and accident fatalities – Protests in Lansing – Michigan’s high mortality rate – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 3,422,291; # of deaths worldwide: 240,334; # of cases U.S.: 1,131,856; # of deaths U.S.: 65,782.  The websites supplying the data duly note that the following territories have no active cases of the virus at this point:  Anguilla (population 17,400), St. Barthélemy (population 10,000), Greenland (population 55,500), and the Falkland Islands (population 4,000).  But these are so isolated and have such tiny populations that they are insignificant statistically.  More significant are countries such as Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan, and New Zealand.  Vietnam in particular has had no deaths from the virus to date and only eight cases still active.  The CDC has double-checked the data coming from Hanoi and has confirmed its validity.  Vietnam’s measures have been very pro-active:  banning of domestic flights in late March, a lockdown that began on April 1^st and is continuing, 791 people tested for every single confirmed case (one of the highest ratios of any country, perhaps the highest). 

The weather has been wet this past week, and even when it has not been raining the sky for the most part was dark and overcast.  But today the “busy old fool, unruly sun” was displayed in a cerulean sky amid pale cumulus clouds as dainty in appearance as puff pastry; hence it was only natural that I spent most of the day outside.  I had no wish to drive in a car, so I simply set forth from my house, walked to Miller Heights, went along the Cross County Trail to Reston where it intersected the W&OD Trail, followed the W&OD Trail to Vienna, meandered along the streets to the Vienna Metro Station, and from there walked home – about 23 miles in all and, perhaps, with all of the little ups and downs taken into account, about 1000 feet elevation gain.  During this journey I passed the area where normally the first Farmer’s Market of the year would be held, close to the courthouse; but of course it was silent and empty.  Will Farmer’s Markets generally be a casualty of this crisis?  The marketers will lose at least six weeks of the season, which is from May to October.  Along the CCT I skirted by several great concentrations of broad-leaf plantain, which I had not noticed before, even though I’ve been on the trail at least a dozen times.  It was muddy in many areas, but that was only to be expected after the amount of rain we had earlier.  We are now in the middle of spring; the leaves no longer possess the diaphanous quality that characterizes their initial appearance, and as a result the depths of the forest are darker and shadier.  At Vienna I went around the Whole Foods store, with a vague idea of going in and pursuing a fast snack or two, but that idea had to be quickly abandoned; there was a long line of customers waiting patiently on the sidewalk leading to the store.  When I arrived at home I was rather tired, of course, but I was also hungry and so I lost little time in preparing dinner:  broiled salmon, rice seasoned with various herbs, zucchini stir-fried with garlic, and fresh pineapple for dessert.  It was a simple enough meal and took little time to prepare, but I could not help reflecting that I was eating a better meal than was available to people living in neighborhoods less plentifully stocked with food stores than mine is. 

Such was my day; what has been going on in the nation at large?

Kayleigh McEnany has been appointed as Trump’s new press secretary and she held a formal briefing with reporters, the first time in over a year that that has happened.  During this exchange she said that “I will never lie to you, you have my word on that” to her auditors.  I doubt if the reporters were greatly reassured – what is to prevent that statement in itself to be a lie?  And the fact that she feels compelled to give such a reassurance speaks volumes about how reporters were treated by the administration in the past.  She may, perhaps, be quite well-meaning, but she will have her work cut out for her, trying to relay information from an administration that habitually deals in equivocations, half-truths, and outright falsehoods.

Car crashes, and fatal ones in particular, have decreased dramatically as a result of the lockdown measures.  In California the number of deaths on the freeways has decreased by a startling 84%.  New York City has not had a single pedestrian death in 46 days – which has never been heard of before. 

Carmen Gentile, a reporter who has covered military war zones such as Afghanistan, Iraq, and Haiti, is currently on the scene at Lansing, MI, and he says that he is more frightened now than he has been on any other assignment.  Armed protestors are not only calling for the end of a lockdown but for the imprisonment of the state governor, although she has been elected by due process and has not broken any law.  Several of the lawmakers are so fearful for their lives that they have donned bullet-proof vests to protect themselves.  Comparisons with Germany before WWII are easy to make, but this state of affairs does bear some resemblance to the conditions that enabled Hitler to make his putsch.

Michigan, incidentally, has the highest death rate from the disease of any state.  The number of fatalities from the virus now stands at 9.13%, whereas the national average is 5.8%.  Most of the fatalities occur in Detroit and the surrounding counties, which should come as a surprise to no one. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 3,479,521; # of deaths worldwide: 244,581; # of cases U.S.: 1,159,430; # of deaths U.S.: 67,391.  We have had 28,400 new cases and 1,638 more deaths in the course of a day.

Morning statistics – Hopeful developments in Southeast Asia and New Zealand – Discouraging news from Eastern Europe and Latin America – Slowdown in easing of restrictions in various states – Reminiscences about the purchase of my home – The all-important monthly mortgage payment  — House-buying, then and now – Job security less frequent – Potential diminishment of available jobs – Our legislators removed from these evils – The pious rich man and the rabbi – Nick Cordero – Hungary and gender by birth – Kim Jong-un regrettably still alive – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 7:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 3,325,620; # of deaths worldwide: 234,485; # of cases U.S.: 1,095,304; # of deaths U.S.: 63,871.  China at this point claims to have fewer than 600 active cases.  More reliable are the data from South Korea:  it has had 10,774 cases to date, with 9,072 recoveries and 248 deaths, leaving 1,454 still active.  Of these, 55 are rated critical.  Taiwan and Vietnam have both been doing well.  Taiwan has had only 429 cases and 6 deaths, with 99 still active.  None of the ones still active are rated as critical.  Vietnam has had 270 cases and no deaths at all, with 51 still active.  Of these, 8 are rated as critical.  New Zealand has had 1,479 cases and 19 deaths.  There are 208 cases still active, with only 1 rated critical.  So there are many bright spots. 

Unfortunately none of them are in Europe or North America.  There have been significant increases in Russia, Mexico, and Brazil.  Eastern Europe has in general been less severely affected by the virus than Western Europe, but the number of new cases in Russia is a troubling sign.  In general, the medical care systems of Eastern European nations are more vulnerable than those of the Western European ones.  If the virus gains momentum there it will be difficult to contain. 

Various states are slowing down on the relaxation of restrictions.  California has closed some of the beaches it had previously opened.  Governor Newson apparently was contemplating closing all of the beaches but he has limited the closure to the beaches in Los Angeles and Orange Counties.  Governor Mike DeWine, of Ohio, has announced that the stay-at-home order, scheduled to end today, will be extended; no new date has been given.  Dr. Fauci has warned the states planning to re-open to do so slowly, and not to make such an attempt unless they have at least a two-week decline in the number of new cases.  

Today is an anniversary for me.  On May 1, 1986, I quitted the apartment that I was renting in Reston and moved into the house in which I am living now.  On that day my status changed from that of renter to house-owner.  Several memories are still fresh from that time.  I could relate here, for example, that the actual date of purchase, when the contract was signed, occurred on April 15^th but that the previous owners wished to stay in the house two weeks longer.  I readily agreed to this proposal, for the arrangement was convenient for me as well; I would be getting full value for the rent payment I had made for April and I would in addition be receiving a rental payment for one half-month.  And then, when I first moved in, the house seemed strangely large and half-empty, for the apartment in which I had lived consisted of a bedroom, a living room, and a den, and the number of rooms in the house was greater.  And numerous other circumstances linger in my memory – the fact, for instance, that the contract was signed on the same day that income taxes were due, and the complications that ensued because the bank was behindhand in its paperwork, and the manner in which the realtor precipitated matters by calling on one of his golfing friends who was also an official at the bank for assistance, and so on.  But the circumstance that pressed most vividly upon my consciousness when the house passed into my hands was the sum still owing on the house:  $90,000 in all, which does not sound like a large amount today but which at the time represented nearly three years of salary for me. 

Inflation had taken a turn for the worse during the years of the Carter administration and double-digit interest rates on loans were the norm, but the policies of Reagan were bringing the interest rates down.  The mortgage rate on which I procured the loan was 10%, which was on the low side for that era.  The interest rates continued to fall over the years, and at one point I re-financed the loan, locking in at a rate of 7.25% and at the same time converting my 30-year mortgage to a 15-year one.  It was, moreover, a loan without penalties for pre-payment, and I took advantage of that by making additional payments in the early years.  The earliest payments of a mortgage have a high proportion of interest to principal, and by pre-paying I was able to eliminate a substantial fraction of the total amount of interest paid on the loan.  By the year 2001 the mortgage was payed off entirely.

Those mortgage payments were a kind of riverbank that shaped my life.  For other expenditures one could delay payment on them – with a penalty of a certain amount of interest, it is true, and a penalty that I strove to incur as seldom as possible – but that option was always available.  But the mortgage payments were a different matter.  Those could not be deferred.  Every month a portion of my after-tax salary had to be set aside for that purpose.  What remained could be devoted to other expenses and even to menus plaisirs – and, indeed, I did not stint myself over the years.  But always, always I was conscious of the payment that had to be made at the end of the month.  There is nothing unusual about such a mindset; it is, I should imagine, fairly common among householders whose mortgage is not paid off in full and among renters of houses or apartments. 

After the mortgage was paid off I became a great deal less conscious of monetary pressures.  If there was the prospect, once the mortgage was free and clear, of my being laid off, such a threat no longer seemed as alarming as it previously had been; whatever else might befall me, I would have a place in which to live.  In actual fact, matters went well with me.  At no point was my career in jeopardy; my skills were always in demand, I lived in comfort, I was able to build up a portfolio; and so matters continued until I elected to retire.  I am in a good position now, perhaps even an enviable one.  Perfect security of course is not to be expected under any circumstances, but between pensions and yields from investments and eventual Social Security payments, my position is probably as secure as anyone could desire.

I muse upon these circumstances because I am now driven to speculate how the experiences of renters and householders today will differ from mine, particularly during the economic aftermath of a crisis that has already reduced our GNP by 4.8%.  My successful outcome was in part the result of careful management, no doubt.  I always budgeted for the monthly payment and when the opportunity came to make that payment as little burdensome as possible, I was quick to seize upon it.  But part of it was also luck – or more precisely, the national economic conditions that were favorable for leading up to such a result.  And there were other factors that worked in my favor.  I had a skillset that happened to be in demand, and when I saw opportunities to obtain new skills the organizations for which I worked were happy to supply me with training.  Occasionally I fretted about what the future would hold when the project on which I was currently working came to an end, but as time passed it became apparent that a long period of unemployment was unlikely. 

So the question arises:  How does a young man or woman of the present day, just beginning to make his or her way, grapple with the issue of shelter?

To begin with, inflation rates will undoubtedly go up.  Rent and mortgage payments will become higher and they will buy less.  Then, too, there is the matter of house prices and their ratio to income.  When I went house-hunting the standard advice was to look for a dwelling whose price was 3-4 times one’s annual salary.  I do not believe that such a guideline holds true today. 

Again, job security will probably become less common.  During the period of my own career job security was certainly sporadic enough.  Employment in the Government sector was fairly stable. So, too, was the information technology industry in which I worked, at any rate in certain regions.  Those who worked in retail were in a more precarious situation.  And those whose skillset was more limited always had to contend against the threat of automation.  

At this point the problem of the work shortage will become more acute.  Jobs in industries such as travel, tourism, hospitality, and so on, will probably be reduced.  Restaurants will have a more difficult time making a profit if they are prohibited from placing its customers in close proximity to each other.  So will food markets and department stores.  Small independent shops will diminish in number as ordering online becomes more common.  In short, I do not see how a sufficient amount of income sources will be available for the number of people who need them to obtain housing.

How these evils are to be remedied I do not know.  One feature, however, seems clear:  we can expect no help whatever from our law-makers.  They simply do not have first-hand experience of such matters.  The average holdings of the members of our Senate amount to something in the neighborhood of nine-to-ten million dollars.  Unless they are unusually empathetic or imaginative, they can have no conception of that all-important monthly payment.  Our system, indeed, makes it virtually impossible for persons of moderate income to run for such offices.  The only one I know of who was not wealthy in his or her own right during the time of election is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez; and once she assumed office she has not been a friend to the wage-earners.  On the contrary, she has consistently advocated policies that tax them to such a degree that they hardly have any discretionary funds of their own.

There is a story concerning a pious rich man who was questioned by a prominent rabbi about his habits.  When the subject of his meals came up, he said that he ate very simply, chiefly upon bread and salt, with water to drink. Whereupon the rabbi turned on him with scorn.

“Why do you not eat meat and drink wine,” he said, “suitable to a man of your position?”

And he continued to assail the man in this fashion until the rich man, in bewilderment, promised faithfully that in future he would eat meat and drink wine.

After the rich man departed, the rabbi’s disciples bombarded the rabbi with questions.  Why he had been so severe on the rich man for living simply?  What difference did it make whether he ate meat or not?  Or if it did, was he not rather to be commended for not indulging his appetites and abstaining from gluttony?

The rabbi heard out all of their questions and comments patiently, and when they were done he gave the following reply.

“This man,” he said, “is a rich man.  If he eats meat and drinks wine, then he will be able to grasp the concept that a poor man may eat bread and drink water to satisfy hunger and thirst.  But if he abstains from meat and confines himself to bread and water, even out of motives of piety, he will eventually wind up thinking that the poor ought to eat stones.”

And so it is with the wealthy men and women who sit in the House and the Senate.  They are, for the most part, well-intentioned.  They earnestly wish to help many in need:  the homeless, the refugees fleeing from impoverished countries, the youth driven by the conditions of the ghetto into crime.  But in the process they continually absorb greater and greater portions of income from the wage-earners, without reflecting that expenditures that may be a trifling inconvenience for people in their own walk of life can be killing sacrifices for those whose income is far less than their own.  Sooner or later they lose sight of that all-important monthly payment for rent or mortgage.  Sooner or later they end up thinking that the lower and the middle classes ought to eat stones. 

But on to other matters –

Nick Cordero, the Broadway actor who had to have a leg amputated as a result of complications from COVID-19, is not done with his battle with the virus.  His lungs have been damaged.  Holes have developed in the lungs and they continually fill up with fungus, necessitating periodic cleanings.  His prospects for ultimate survival are far from certain.  It has to be reiterated:  he was relatively young, in good health, and in excellent physical condition before the virus struck.  Having no underlying complications may increase the chances of emerging from an attack of the virus unscathed, but it is by no means a guarantee.

Hungary, a nation with a long history of marching under its own banner, is in the process of passing a law that will compel people to use the gender assigned to them at birth on official ID documentation such as passports, drivers’ licenses, etc.  As a matter of course, several LGBT and transgender representative groups are up in arms and are calling upon the European Union to put pressure on Hungary to quash the law.  I sincerely hope that the European Union will not squander their energies on this folly, especially when they have so much more pressing business at hand.  If a man wishes to wear dresses, adorn himself with women’s cosmetics, and admit none but men to his bed, let him indulge these preferences to his heart’s content; but he has no business calling himself a woman.  Certain matters are pre-determined at conception.  My height, for instance, is slightly under5’8” (172 centimeters).  But if I were to hobble about on shoes with heels of 4 inches or more and declare that my mindset has always been that of a tall man, I doubt very much that the six-footers would clasp me to their bosom and embrace me as one of themselves.  These so-called “transgender women” are nothing but glorified castrati.  Similarly, if a woman takes testosterone supplements, crimps her breasts in the manner that Victorian ladies compressed their waists, and conducts amorous dalliance with other women only, she still is not a man.  She is a male impersonator.  Salud to you, Hungary, for standing firm on that point.  Or should I say egészségére?

Kim Jong-un has apparently been seen again.  At least, the North Korean news agency stated that he has just attended the completion of a fertilizer plant north of the capital.  There is no independent confirmation of this report, but the stories about his possible botched surgery or his death have become more doubtful.  He may even not have undergone any surgical operation at all.  President Trump has addressed this issue in his usual statesmanlike fashion; when asked about Kim’s health he growled out, “I don’t want to talk about it.”

Today’s statistics as of 8:30 PM — # of cases worldwide: 3,398,473; # of deaths worldwide: 239,448; # of cases U.S.: 1,131,030; # of deaths U.S.: 65,753.  Russia has had its highest daily increase and Mikhail Mishustin, the Prime Minister, has been diagnosed with the virus.  It now has more cases than China and Iran.  The virus is making its way through Brazil.  Even though the death toll is relatively low at the moment (less than 7,000 in a country whose population is 211,000,000) the upsurge is high enough to create a shortage of coffins.  It is possible that both the incidence of cases and the mortality rate is higher than reported, due to the difficulty of getting accurate data from some of its more remote areas.  The actual number of cases may under-reported by as much as a factor of ten.  It borders nearly every other country on the continent and its neighbors have been greatly alarmed, especially since Brazil has not imposed any travel restrictions on its citizens going in or out of the country.  Ecuador is undergoing similar difficulties; in Guayaquil morgues and cemeteries have been so overwhelmed that some families have had to leave their relatives’ remains exposed on the street.  From Venezuela it is almost impossible to obtain reliable data.  In all probability the incidence rate and the mortality rate are much higher than reported.  At this point most Venezuelans do not have access to a reliable water source, which makes it difficult for them to clean themselves.  Chile is issuing “release certificates” to those who have had the virus and have since recovered, even though the WHO says that there is no evidence that having contracted the virus once confers immunity.