Month: June 2020

The Appalachian Trail in Pennsylvania – More congested traffic conditions – Medicare – News from India and Pakistan – Evening statistics

Restrictions are continually lifting and travel between states no longer appears to be an issue, at any rate for day trips.  I therefore resumed my goal of undertaking as much of the Appalachian Trail in Pennsylvania that appears feasible.  Today I went to Rte. 325, and hiked between the road and the Table Rock view (the end point of my previous hike in the area).  It was 15 miles round trip; however, outside of the initial ascent to the top of Peters Mountain, it was relatively level:  little ups and downs, some of them steep, but none of significant length.  It was rocky in some areas (the AT in Pennsylvania is notorious for this) but not unduly so; however, it had rained heavily last night and sometimes the rocks were slippery.  Even though it was longer than yesterday’s excursion, I was much less tired at the end.  Yesterday I was hiking in temperatures approaching 90 degrees; today I was in higher elevations – not a great deal (Peters Mountain is less than 1300 feet above sea level) but enough to make the air temperature significantly cooler.  I thought that the number of hikers would be fairly low for this section of the AT, but during the first hour I encountered more than a dozen, most of them going northward as I was going south.  After that I hardly saw anybody for the remainder of the hike, both on the way to Table Rock and on the return to Rte. 325.  Why this was so I can only conjecture; my guess is that several hikers were camping overnight and started their trek for the day fairly early. 

Traffic was heavier going back that it has been during the past three months and it seems likely that we’ll be reverting to our usual congestion in and out of the Beltway over the next few weeks.  Traffic on I-66 between Vienna and Fairfax was moving very slowly indeed.

I received my Medicare bill today in the mail.  During the interval between the beginning of my retirement and my 65^th birthday, medical insurance was one of my largest expenses.  Once I was eligible for Medicare, my insurance bill went down by 80% and in addition I am receiving a supplement from my former employer to defray such expenses.  Medical insurance, then, costs me relatively little.  I mention this circumstance because the current bill contained an enclosure stating, somewhat apologetically, that Medicare payments could not be deferred on account of the economic changes that have come about as a result of the virus.  In my case it did not matter at all, but the inclusion of such an announcement must mean that many seniors will be hard-pressed to make their monthly Medicare payments.  Obamacare, during the previous administration, had been instituted for the purpose of guaranteeing medical insurance for all citizens; but it appears that that the effort towards that goal will be thoroughly undermined by the combination of the strain on our health system imposed by the virus and the hostility of our current president towards the achievements of any administration except his own.

India and Pakistan are both seeing large increases of virus cases.  India has eased its restrictions after instituting one of the most rigid lockdowns worldwide in March.  The new spike has come after the restrictions were lifted and may have been a direct consequence of their easement.  But what can they do?  At least 100,000,000 Indians have lost their jobs as a result of the lockdown.  Pakistan has similar concerns; its Prime Minister mulled over extending the lockdown restrictions but in the end decided against it.

 Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 6,839,244; # of deaths worldwide: 397,441; # of cases U.S.: 1,965,551; # of deaths U.S.: 111,375.  At this rate our case count will surpass two million within a day or two.

Morning statistics – Placido Domingo – Nick Cordero – On the Bull Run/Occoquan Trail – Phase 2 of re-opening in Virginia – Difficulties in distinguishing satire from reality – News from abroad – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 6,603,139; # of deaths worldwide: 388,502; # of cases U.S.: 1,902,779; # of deaths U.S.: 109,159. 

News about performers whom the virus has afflicted.  Placido Domingo has made a full recovery and is planning to return to the stage in August.  Nick Cordero, unfortunately, is not doing well.  After two months of continual struggle and any number of special procedures, his condition has worsened and the physicians are holding out little chance of his recovery. 

The warmer weather has begun.  It was over 90 degrees yesterday, but not hazy or humid.  Today was slightly lower in temperature but also a bit hazier – not overly humid as yet.  But we can expect the usual torrid temperatures coming soon.  For me, this is the most difficult season in which to hike.  You can always add more clothes in winter, but there’s a limit to how many you can take off in summer.  Today I went along the Bull Run/Occoquan Trail, which has opened again, starting from Fountainhead, having lunch at Bull Run Marina, and then going back:  about 14 miles in all.  An amusing incident occurred:  at one point during my return, a young woman hiker was ahead of me and as she saw me approach she broke into a run for a short distance.  Then she resumed normal walking speed and I started to close the gap again.  This occurred a few times and finally she stopped, saying to me, “Go ahead – I’ve been half-running to stay in front, but I’m tired out now; you’re just too fast for me.”

Virginia will enter Phase 2 of the re-opening tomorrow.  Farmer’s Markets will be operative again.  Retailers can re-open but will need to limit the stores to 50% occupancy.  Pools will be open, but only lap swimming, diving, exercise, and instruction will be permitted.  Hot tubs will remain closed.  Outdoor performing arts and sports venues will be allowed (with certain seating restrictions) but no indoors ones as yet.  Museums, zoos, and aquariums may re-open, but social distancing has to be maintained within them.  Religious services may resume, but people must sit six feet apart from each other; family groups are allowed to sit together, provided that they are six feet from everyone else.  Beauty salons, barber shops, and spas are encouraged to serve clients by appointment only.  Employees and clients must wear masks while inside the building. 

“Study:  Many of Nation’s Problems Could Be Solved by Having a President.”  As so often happens with the titles of Andy Borowitz’s satirical articles, I had to do a double-take to verify that it is only a joke and is not reporting something that actually happened.  I can easily imagine a study of our national state of affairs undertaken in complete earnest coming to such a conclusion.  Numerous military leaders probably would agree; they have turned on Trump in great numbers for his latest conduct during the protests, condemning him for polarizing the nation instead of trying to unify it. 

The death toll in both Brazil and Mexico are rapidly accelerating.  Brazil is now second only to the U.S. and the U.K., and it will overtake the U.K. in a few days.  Mexico is now seventh on the list; its death toll is exceeded by the U.S., the U.K., Brazil, Italy, France, and Spain.  Its death count is still well below the other six, but I believe it will be a different story in two or three weeks.  Belarus’s case count is now approaching the 0.5% mark.  Sweden’s case count is also steadily rising; and, somewhat unexpectedly, its mortality rate is over 10%.  Chile is in a somewhat better position than these others; its incidence rate is high (over 0.6%) but its mortality rate is still low. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 6,688,679; # of deaths worldwide: 392,123; # of cases U.S.: 1,923,637; # of deaths U.S.: 110,171. 

Morning statistics – President Bolonsaro in Byronic mold – The Republican Convention – Inexplicable behavior of a Fox News commentator – Ebola in the Congo – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 6,483,896; # of deaths worldwide: 383,105; # of cases U.S.: 1,882,148; # of deaths U.S.: 108,104.

“I regret every death but that’s everyone’s destiny.”  Ah, President Jair Bolsonaro, that Byronic figure!  Specifically, he seems a male counterpart of Donna Inez in Byron’s Don Juan:

And then this best and meekest woman bore 
With such serenity her husband’s woes,
Just as Spartan ladies did of yore,
Who saw their spouses killed, and nobly chose
Never to say a word about them more –
Calmly she heard each calumny that rose,
And saw his agonies with such sublimity,
That all the world exclaimed, “What magnaminity!”

Donald Trump has withdrawn the Republican convention from Charlotte, NC, after Roy Cooper, the state governor, insisted on maintaining the option of size restrictions for the number of people occupying the Spectrum Arena.  Cooper has not budged on his conditions and is probably relieved rather than otherwise at the prospect of Trump holding the convention elsewhere.   Trump claims that the convention would have brought wealth and jobs to the state, but he is, I should imagine, likely to prove to be a very troublesome guest.  He is now searching for another state willing to host the convention on his terms:  no limits on crowd size, no face masks.  And even if he finds one there is the matter of organization; normally these conventions take many months to plan in advance.  Nonetheless there are several states vying for this dubious honor:  Tennessee, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona have all expressed interest.  The case of Georgia is especially significant; Governor Kemp evidently has no resentment for the manner in which Trump abruptly let him down in late April.  That is how Trump operates: he deliberately injures people, and they respond by apologizing for having been wronged.

The moon must have been aligned with Jupiter or some other rare astronomical event must have occurred recently, for yesterday we were treated to the astounding spectacle of a Fox News commentator being scathingly critical of Donald Trump – specifically, of his response to the recent protests.  Tucker Carlson, who normally is as obedient to Trump as any owner of a pet poodle could desire, lambasted the president for failing to protect citizens from the rioters and even delivered a boutade* to Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, that outstanding possessor of high connections without any corresponding merit or ability. 

There is an outbreak of Ebola in Mbandaka, a city in the western part of the DRC.  Ebola is much less contagious then COVID-19 and is therefore easier to contain, but occasional outbreaks have continued to plague the Congo from time to time.  The last one occurred in 2018 and there were some fears that it could spread to Kinshasa, which has a population of over ten million.  But it was contained in time.  Still, as the WHO points out, this outbreak is a reminder that there are numerous other health threats diseases besides COVID-19.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 6,562,481; # of deaths worldwide: 386,784; # of cases U.S.: 1,901,702; # of deaths U.S.: 109,140.  Peru’s case count has just surpassed Turkey’s, making it ninth of the list of nations with the highest counts.  Mexico’s death toll today is the highest it has experienced so far. The following countries, including the microstates, have incidence rates of more than 0.5% (one in two hundred):  Qatar, San Marino, Andorra, Bahrain, Mayotte, Kuwait, Luxembourg, Singapore, Spain, Chile, U.S., Peru, Iceland, Gibralter, Iceland, and Belgium. 

*I am at a loss to find an English equivalent of this energetic French word, which signifies a sudden jerking or kicking from a horse.

Hiking along Little Devils Stairs – Restrictions imposed by Shenandoah National Park – Possible re-opening of REI outfitters – Hesitations about foreign travel – Removal of a landmark in Alexandria – Trump at St. John’s Episcopal Church – Spain’s pension system – Russia and Latin America – Evening statistics

Today I led the Little Devils Stairs hike for the Vigorous Hikers group.  It is the same hike that I scouted on Saturday but the conditions were easier.  Three days of relatively warm temperatures and minimal rainfall combined to make the streams lower and the trails much less muddy.  I did, however, use my water-shoes when crossing the Thornton River – the first time I had an opportunity to do so this year.

Normally when we ascend Little Devils Stairs we do so at the beginning, parking in the lot outside of Shenandoah National Park.  But that cannot be done at this stage, because the current restrictions prohibit parking at such lots and hiking into the park from beyond the boundary.  When I scouted the hike on Saturday I saw several cars in the outside lot, despite the signs stating that it is prohibited.  It seems that the police have taken action since then and that word must have gotten around that cars parked there will be ticketed, for the lot was nearly empty today.  There were only two cars in the lot, and one had already been ticketed.  I was very glad, therefore, that I had rerouted the hike so that it started within the park and thus had not exposed the other members of the group to this risk.  Little Devils Stairs is one of the more arduous ascents in SNP and it is preferable to complete it towards the beginning of the hike if possible, but the situation was mitigated by the fact that we had lunch at the Bolen cemetery about two-thirds of the way into the hike, which allowed us to rest and get the energy for the climb up the rocky gorge.  Initially the weather was cloudy and damp, but it cleared early in the morning and we had a beautiful day.  We noted the effects that the unusually cool spring has had in the higher elevations:  tree foliage is far from complete, and azaleas were still in bloom while the mountain laurel was barely budding.  The low temperatures of the past several weeks have inhibited the butterflies, but now that the weather has been warm for several days they are to be seen flying over numerous portions of the trails.

LH, a member of the group who has been working part-time for REI, gave us a welcome piece of news.  REI has been closed for several weeks as a result of the lockdown restrictions, but LH said that his supervisor called him to ascertain if he was willing to resume work.  Not everyone is willing, on account of the risk of infection.  But an inquiry of that sort must mean that REI is contemplating opening its outlets soon.  His news certainly interested me, for I am anxious to get new hiking boots.  This year I have hiked over 900 miles so far and the traction on my boots is getting worn.  Boots can be ordered online, of course; but I prefer to try them on before I commit myself to buying a pair, which means purchasing them by means of physically visiting a store.

TK, another group member, spoke to me about his uncertainty of the status of an impending trip to France in late summer.  I myself am not prepared at this stage to travel in a foreign country; if I become ill with the virus I would prefer it to happen where I know something about the hospital system and am familiar with the language spoken by the physicians and nurses.  He agreed somewhat ruefully when I expressed this point of view, saying that he himself had similar concerns. 

The statue in Alexandria at the intersection of Prince and Washington Streets has been removed.  It has been something of a landmark since 1889 – a landmark, one might say, of doubtful quality.  It is a bronze statue commemorating the Confederate soldiers of Alexandria.  The United Daughters of the Confederacy, which owns the statue, moved it to an undisclosed location, probably fearing that it would otherwise by vandalized as a result of the recent protests.  It was an interesting sight – a statue in the center of a cobblestoned intersection, cast in the classical style that was popular in the late 19^th century.  On the whole, though, its absence is not to be regretted.  No doubt that the youths whom the statue commemorates freely donated their lives to their cause, but the cause was a bad one.  For all of the blather that is spoken about “states’ rights,” the right for which the Confederacy fought for was the “right” of men to own slaves – a thoroughly repugnant notion, which can only result in the most unfavorable opinion of both the heads and the hearts of the men who championed it.

Donald Trump emerged from his bunker yesterday and I daresay his acolytes were agog to see what bold stroke of leadership he would perform next.  What he did was to arrange a photo-op, displaying him holding up a Bible while standing in front of St. John’s Episcopal Church.  Trump did not notify the church officials beforehand that he was planning to visit, seeking to take them by surprise – as well he might, considering that his church-going has far from assiduous.  Maryann Budde, the bishop of the Washington D. C. diocese, strenuously denied that the diocese received any notification of his visit, and declared herself astonished at Trump’s proximity in the church at all, adding that “The only time that President Trump has been at St. John’s church as president was on the morning of his inauguration.”  Various leaders of other denominations expressed disapproval of the use of the Bible as a prop.  Indeed, even his supporters must be somewhat dismayed by this apparent defection from the service of Mammon, who is of course the chief deity of the one and only true religion.  But I have confidence in our leader.  I have no doubt that he will eventually atone with numerous acts of penitence, such as cheating a contractor, depriving an employee of his wages when they are due, or embezzling some of the Treasury funds.

A strange but not unexpected result of the coronavirus system has been to improve the sustainability of the pension system in Spain.  Spain’s death toll from the virus is estimated at over 27,000, of which 80% consists of people over 70.  This result has in turn affected the old-age dependency ratio, which has gone up from 2.3 in April to 2.56 in May.  Until the virus made its impact, the ratio had been going steadily downward, to a degree that would have made the system unworkable.  In all probability the nations with a high proportion of elderly (i.e., most of the European ones) will ultimately be affected in the same way.

Russia, Brazil, and Mexico have had surges in new cases and new deaths but they are easing their lockdowns all the same.  Putin claims that Russia has now passed its peak of infection; such statistics that are available suggest that there is a fair amount of wish-fulfillment involved in this statement.  But Latin America in general appears to be undergoing the greatest concentration of the virus at this point.  Peru is now tenth on the list of nations with the greatest number of cases.  Brazil’s case count is nearly 30% of that of U.S. – up from less than 25% about a week ago. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 6,473,097; # of deaths worldwide: 381,706; # of cases U.S.: 1,880,529; # of deaths U.S.: 108,057.

Morning statistics – Potential second wave of COVID-19 – The new “normal” – The deceptions of nostalgia – Donald Trump takes refuge – Loot and pillage if you must, but stay healthy – Suburban calm – On the Neabsco Creek Boardwalk and the Potomac Heritage Trail – South Korea backtracks – News from other countries – Another Russian defenestration – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 6,291,969; # of deaths worldwide: 374,369; # of cases U.S.: 1,837,830; # of deaths U.S.: 106,208. 

It was quite a doleful entry yesterday and I don’t know that today’s will be much better.  There will probably be more clashes between protestors and police over the next several days.  Also, the fact that people have been congregating in swarms during these protests means that an acceleration in the number of the virus cases is likely.  Many states have shown a downward trend in recent days, and the mass gatherings might undo all of the progress made on containing the virus.  For that matter, lockdowns are being eased all over the world, despite the fears of a second wave of COVID-19.  Health officials in the U.K. have issued a plea to the government to defer the lifting of the restrictions, but it is unlikely that the government will comply.  National governments in general are getting increasingly anxious to get their economic structure in place again.  The national debt of nearly every country on the planet has increased to alarming degrees as a result of the pandemic. 

Certainly a modified version of the precautions will continue to be in place for some time to come.  Work has been underway on various possible vaccines, but until one is confirmed to be safe and effective, face masks, hand sanitizer, and standing six feet away from people will be the new “normal” behavior. 

From Ursula K. LeGuin’s “The New Atlantis,” a story set in the future, when its narrator tries to relax by reading a novel from a previous age:  “It was about small-town sex life in the last century, the dear old 1970s when there weren’t any problems and life was so simple and nostalgic.”  The joke, of course, is that the story itself was written in the 1970s, when life seemed anything but simple and nostalgic to those who were actually living in that era.  Still, however strong the tendency is to idealize the past, it seems doubtful that future generations will look upon this moment of our history with longing. 

Donald Trump has taken to shelter in a secure underground bunker in response to the protests being held close to the White House.  During the past several days while the protests were ongoing, Trump made no public address to the nation and instead delivered inflammatory messages on Twitter urging violent retaliation on the protestors, which of course did nothing to subdue their resentment.  Many of the local authorities pleaded with him to stop making a bad situation worse with his provocative tweets.  They might just as well as spared themselves the effort.  So now he is residing in the same bunker that sheltered Vice President Cheney during the attacks of 9/11 nearly twenty years ago.  Cheney, of course, was being protected against potential threats from a foreign terrorist organization; Trump needs to be defended from his own countrymen.  I do not believe that any previous president I have experienced during my lifetime has inspired the degree of hatred that he has.  Even when people passionately disagreed with the policies of Kennedy, Johnson, Ford, Carter, Reagan, the two Bushes, Clinton, or Obama, these men were not loathed and despised by their opponents to such a degree on a mere personal level.  Perhaps Nixon aroused a more visceral reaction than the others, but it was less widespread and less intense; he had many defenders even at his most beleaguered moments, he had not alienated his own political party by running roughshod over them, and once he resigned the resentment against him died down relatively quickly.  It is impossible at this stage to predict how long Trump will be held in odium once his term of power comes to an end (whether it happens in November or four years from now), but I believe people will be speaking of him with abhorrence for a long time to come.

Sometimes medical experts display a naïveté which, if a little surprising, is not altogether unpleasing.  A number of doctors have urged the protestors to wear face masks during their demonstrations.  While the majority of the protestors may be non-violent, those who are taking advantage of the situation to loot stores and torch buildings are not likely to be troubled overmuch with scruples over potential infections.

Life goes on amidst all of this turmoil, to be sure.  I mowed the lawn yesterday; today I brought my car to the local service supplier for a filter and oil change.  When I walked back from the car service to my house (they are little over a mile apart and it is much pleasanter after dropping the car off to spend the interval before the repairs are complete at home than in a waiting room), I noticed that the T. J. Maxx in the local shopping area was opening its doors for the first time in several weeks as a result of the Phase One easing of lockdown restrictions.  Various other stores were showing signs of greater activity than before.  I’ve always admired that touch in Zola’s Germinal when, at the end of the mass demonstration by miners besieging the mine-owner’s home, a pastry-cook’s van follows the gendarmes quelling the disturbance and an errand-boy jumps out to deliver an order of vol-au-vents to the family.  Indeed, probably many of us in the area will be taking advantage of today’s fine weather to walk and bike and hold picnics with their families.  It is doubtful that anyone will be overly perturbed by the image of Trump cowering in a bunker.

In compliance with this sentiment I went out after the car was released back to me, and since it was not returned until the early afternoon, I did not wish to drive very far.  But I went to Rippon Landing and from there I walked along the Neabsco Creek Boardwalk, which has been re-opened.  The creek (wide enough to be accounted a river in England) is now in the full glory of a wetlands in late spring:  cattails in cottony ripeness, red-winged blackbirds soaring overhead in great numbers, large yellow water lilies just beginning to flower, tiger swallowtails and zebra swallowtails fluttering among the reeds.  It was gratifying as well to see people of all races enjoying themselves along the boardwalk, perfectly at ease with one another.  I had thought merely to stroll along the boardwalk and afterwards through the wetlands to the border of Leesylvania before turning back, but the best-laid plans, etc., etc.  When I got to the boundary of Leesylvania the afternoon was still young and I thought I might as well press further onward; and so I did, for several miles, until I came to where this particular segment of the Potomac Heritage Trail ends at Rte. 1 – about six miles each way.  The trail bypasses many private houses and occasionally I saw children of different races playing together in concord.  One would never imagine that protests based on racial issues were being held in a city that is less than 35 miles away. 

And it was as I predicted:  the plight of Donald Trump fleeing to the bunker did not appear to dampen anyone’s spirits overmuch.  Trump’s supporters are said to be somewhat more numerous in proportion as the area one traverses becomes more rural, and I could only suppose that several of the house-owners whose properties I skirted were among this faction.  If there was any wailing and gnashing of teeth on his behalf, however, it left few traces on any of their faces as they tended their barbecues and relaxed in their hammocks. 

Almost everyone was not wearing a mask when being out-of-doors.  The accepted wisdom at this point is that masks are not necessary for activity that takes place outside, because droplets dissipate and disperse much more rapidly than indoors.  We may, however, need to rethink this policy.  South Korea has just closed numerous schools, museums, and parks on account of a new spike in coronavirus cases after easing its lockdown restrictions.  The numbers are not huge – 177 new cases in three days – but they are sufficiently discouraging for a country that had believed to have gotten the virus under control. 

There is good news from Spain:  no deaths from the virus in the last 24 hours – the first time in months that this has happened.  But many countries are showing substantial daily case incidence increases:  India, Pakistan, Peru, Iran, Chile, and those two perennial favorites Russia and Brazil.  Italy’s death toll in the past 24 hours was 60, which is lower than it has been in previous days; but it still has had more deaths than that of any other country except the U.S. and the U.K. 

Russia has had yet another accident involving someone falling out of a window in a hospital:  a police lieutenant colonel who was also a forensics expert.  She was a patient being treated for the virus at the time.  She survived the fall and is now in intensive care.  I think I have the solution to the dangers posed by Russian hospitals.  The government should declare every single hospital in the country a classified area, and as such unable to have access to any windows at all.  Such an approach would have the additional advantage of appealing to that preference for mystification and confusion that among Russians appears to be all but innate.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 6,361,889; # of deaths worldwide: 377,150; # of cases U.S.: 1,859,451; # of deaths U.S.: 106,923.