Month: July 2020

Uneventfulness is in the eye of the beholder – Tentative plans for travel to New York – The virus continues to spiral – Evening statistics

One day Louis XVI returned to Versailles from his hunting and wrote the following entry in his journal – “July 14:  Nothing.”  Shortly afterwards one of his courtiers arrived from Paris to inform him that the Bastille had fallen.  So even though it was an uneventful day for me I mustn’t assume that that is the case for the nation at large.  Still, today’s entry will be relatively brief.

Currently I’m investigating whether I can try to get to New York for a visit to my aunt at the end of the month.  She will have a significant birthday at the end of the month, with no one to celebrate it; my cousins either live in areas from where they would not be allowed to travel to New York without quarantining, or have recently been afflicted with the virus and are still wary of social interactions.  It would not be necessary for me to quarantine since I would be coming from Virginia; the question is how to travel there.  Train, airplane, and car all have their respective disadvantages; driving is probably the safest in terms of avoiding infection but there is the question of where to store the car once I get there.  I will try to come to some sort of arrangement this week.

It has been a significant day in one respect; our national case count has passed the three-million mark.  It is true that the rate of new cases has declined slightly in the last few days – less than 50,000 both today and yesterday, but it is not a very steep decline nor one that has as yet lasted very long.  California, Texas, and Florida account for over 40% of the new cases.  It does appear that our mortality rate is declining.  At this point it is about 4.3%.  The global average is about 4.6%, so we are doing slightly better than average – but not breathtakingly so.  At this point 40 states are seeing increases in the rate of new cases.  Our President, of course, continues to brush aside the virus as being insignificant; but this persistent ostrich-like behavior is so familiar to us by now that it no longer counts as news. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 11,731,582; # of deaths worldwide: 540,031; # of cases U.S.: 3,039,647; # of deaths U.S.: 132,952. 

The coronavirus and the Spanish flu epidemic – Contrast between public gloom and personal daily life – A hike with friends – Relative safety of being outdoors – Nick Cordero – Evening statistics

At this point nearly 0.15% of the world’s population has been affected by the virus.  The Spanish flu epidemic ended up by affecting about a third of the world’s population, so that means that the virus would have to increase by a factor of about 220 to be comparable in range.  But that is no reason for complacency.  The number of people affected by the virus has been steadily increasing at nearly 200,000 per day for several days running, there is no sign that the much-vaunted “herd immunity” has even begun to take shape; and at this writing there is no reliable vaccine available.  Already we have seen a tenfold increase in the space of four months.  We may easily see another such increase by November. 

However, as I have so often had occasion to note, life on the personal level presents quite a contrast to what is reported in the news.  There is nothing new in that, of course.  Here is one account from someone living in Paris during the French Revolution:

“Foreigners reading our newspapers imagine us all covered with blood, in rags, and living wretched lives.  Judge of their surprise when they reach our magnificent avenue in the Champs Élysées on either side of which are elegant phaetons and charming, lovely women; and then  . . .  that magical perspective opening over the Tuileries and . . . those splendid gardens, now more luxuriant and better tended than ever.”

It was a similar story for me today.  I had an especially pleasurable excursion with several friends in easy enjoyment.  AD organized a hike with several Wanderbirds members to explore the southern part of the American Chestnut Land Trust.  These included CB, whose wife I had seen earlier during my visit to Brookside Gardens, and who has undergone a round of chemotherapy and radiation treatments that not only have had a successful outcome but have left no visible effects – it would have been impossible to guess, from the vigor of his appearance or demeanor, that he had endured anything of the sort.  Indeed, he has been walking 12-14 miles a day for the past several weeks.  JK, a long-standing friend with whom I frequently hiked together (we were among the faster ones of the group), was also present and I was very glad to see him, after an interval of several months.  There were seven of us in all, and we were fortunate in our weather – only a brief shower at the beginning but no rain afterwards, and less torrid than it has been for the past few days.  In the shade (and most of the hike was through dense foliage) it was quite comfortable.  We had a few breezes as well.  It was very pleasant in particular to see AD savor the breezes in her characteristic fashion, in the style of a connoisseur enjoying a fine wine.  The flowers of middle summer were in bloom:  black-eyed susan and butterfly weed in particular.  Delicious wineberries were available on the bushes throughout the hike.  The ACLT contains a few abandoned buildings, and in one of these we saw a vulture making its home there.  After the hike was complete we snacked together as the Wanderbirds used to do while waiting for everyone to finish and return to the bus.  Several of us brought fruit, drinks, and so on.  I provided some cookies that I had baked the night before; it is not often now that I get an opportunity to bake treats for others.  All in all, the occasion answered to the description Jane Austen gives of Mrs. John Knightley’s visit to Hartfield in Emma:  “a delightful visit – perfect, in being much too short.”

It appears that outside gatherings are much safer than indoor ones, particularly in small groups and, as was the case with us, with its members continually moving.  The recent protest marches, for instance, have not led to the spike in virus cases that was originally expected.  The causes of our current increases seem to be mainly the lifting of restrictions for indoor gatherings – bars and restaurants in particular. 

Matters have been relatively quiescent on the national front, but there was some sad news today.  Nick Cordero, the Broadway actor who battled the coronavirus for months on end, has succumbed at last.  He underwent the amputation of a leg, several days on a ventilator, a tracheostomy procedure, daily lung cleansings, and numerous other medical operations, all to no avail.  He was only 41, in good health before he had contracted the virus, with no underlying conditions; his ordeal is an object lesson that the victims of the virus are by no means confined to the infirm and the elderly.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 11,547,720; # of deaths worldwide: 536,419; # of cases U.S.: 2,981,009 # of deaths U.S.: 132,552.  Today the U.S. had less than 50,000 cases, the first time in days.  India’s case count has surpassed Russia’s.  Italy, which was once the poster child for the nations most heavily affected by the virus, is now tenth on the list of top case counts and will soon be displaced by Iran.  Four European nations – Russia, Spain, the U.K., and Italy – are currently among the top ten case counts, and the last three will not remain there long – too many contenders from Southern America and the Mideast are poised to displace them. 

An eventless Fourth of July – The ghost town of Rausch Gap – Plans to complete hiking the Appalachian Trail in Pennsylvania – The bridge at Harpers Ferry – The British are thirsty – The prudence of Malawi’s new president – The virus in Africa at large – The case of New Zealand – Evening statistics

It’s the Fourth of July with no events to go to!  Actually, that is not quite true:  there was a modified procession in the late afternoon, with an assortment of motorcycles and two or three decorated floats.  They meant well, but it was such a limited and melancholy affair that they would have done better to leave it alone.

The lack of festivities was a disappointment, of course, but I did the best I could by taking advantage of the lessened traffic on the roads to complete a hike I’ve been planning for several weeks.  I went up to the Appalachian Trail via the Cold Spring Trail in the vicinity of Harrisburg, PA, and then went along a segment of the AT that runs through Rausch Gap, an abandoned mining town.  Very little of it remains – mostly an old railroad bed and a cemetery (only a few of the gravestones are still standing).  It was beautiful on the trail, however, and much less oppressive than in the valley below.  Even though it was not very high in altitude, the temperature was below 80 degrees on the ridgeline.  I have mentioned that summer is the most difficult hiking season but it does have its advantages.  The foliage is at its densest, creating a myriad of gradations of mingled green and gold hues from the sunlight falling through the chinks between the variously shaded leaves.  The ascent along the Cold Spring Trail requires some exertion but is not punishingly steep and the trail itself is in excellent condition.  There were not many others on the trail, but I encountered one other hiker on the Cold Spring Trail going down as I was going up, another on the AT as I was going towards the mining town, and four trail-runners when I was returning. 

With the completion of this hike I have now covered the southern half of the portion of the Appalachian Trail that runs through Pennsylvania, from Swatara Gap to PenMar.  For the northern half I will have to stay at hotels on various trips to towns close to the trail, whenever that becomes feasible – probably at Wind Gap and Port Clinton.  The drives back and forth to the trailheads would simply take up too much time if I started traveling from my house in Fairfax.  Today’s drive was a little over 2½ hours each way, and that was with light traffic.  Traffic has increased over the past several weeks as more businesses are becoming operative and the Beltway in particular is resuming its previous degree of congestion during certain hours.  I am more tired by the end of the day on such excursions from the driving than from the hiking.  In addition, the drives eat up too many hours of daylight.  Today’s hike was only about three hours, enabling me to return to my home in good time and without feeling any need for haste; but I would like to have more time at my disposal for future explorations.

We have had some good news concerning another section of the AT.  Some months ago the bridge over the Potomac adjoining Harpers Ferry was damaged by a train collision and the crossing was rendered unusable.  The only way to continue was to go via Loudoun Heights to the Rte. 340 bridge to Sandy Hook.  The road has a pedestrian walkway but walking along it is extremely unpleasant nonetheless, as well as forming a detour of several miles.  But the bridge has now been repaired and the old route connecting Harpers Ferry with the C&O Towpath on the Maryland bank has been restored.

I have been critical of my countrymen for their disregard of common sense with respect to assembling in large groups, but it seems that we Americans are not alone in this respect.  Today England allowed pubs and hair salons to re-open, and they lost no time in doing so – the pubs opening at 6:00 in the morning and salons on the stroke of midnight.  Nigel Farage, the leader of the Brexit Party, posted a photo of himself as the first customer at his pub of choice, gleefully holding up a pint in his hand; and his compatriots have eagerly followed suit, crowding in the pubs and sitting just a few inches from one another, without any face masks.  Medical experts and health care professionals have pleaded for people to wear masks in enclosed spaces, but for the most part these appeals have fallen on deaf ears.  The U.K.’s mortality rate, it may be remarked in passing, is over 15% — one of the highest worldwide. 

Lazarus Chekwera, the newly-elected president of Malawi, ordered his inauguration ceremony to be scaled down on account of the coronavirus.  The national stadium will be filled to only half capacity, with people sitting well apart from each other, and 100,000 masks will be distributed to the citizens of Lilongwe, the country’s capital.  Malawi has had less than 1,500 cases (a rate of about 78 per million, well below the international average) and 16 deaths (less than 1 per million), but Chekwera is taking no chances, and is thereby displaying a far greater sense of responsibility than the majority of European, North American, and South American leaders.

The African countries in general have been coping much better to date than those on other continents – the cases in all of them combined account for less than 3% of the world’s total, even though they contain about 15% of the world’s population.  Nonetheless even there the virus has been accelerating.  It took 98 days for the countries to reach their first 100,000 cases but just 18 days to bring the total up to 200,000.  Many countries have released their lockdown restrictions; in addition, the increased rate of testing may have uncovered more people were who previously infected without being aware of it. 

Even New Zealand, which has been such a bright spot for many weeks, is having difficulties.  David Clark, the country’s Health Minister, was twice discovered violating the rules that he himself laid down for the rest of the country – once for going mountain biking and one for taking his family on a beach vacation 15 miles from his home.  After many calls for his being fired, he took the initiative by voluntarily resigning.  He was a key advisor among Jacinda Ardern’s aides, so this episode is a setback for her.  The country currently has 18 active cases – not a large number, to be sure, but definitely a retrograde step after it had achieved a status of no active cases some weeks earlier. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 11,371,756; # of deaths worldwide: 532,856; # of cases U.S.: 2,935,185 # of deaths U.S.: 132,313.  Today’s case increase was slightly less than 200,000, which – sadly – is an improvement over yesterday.  Peru’s case count has overtaken Spain’s, and Chile will do the same in two or three days at the most.  Mexico’s case count has overtaken Italy’s.  Iran is likely to follow suit soon.  Mexico, it may be noted, has insisted on keeping its borders with the U.S. closed for fear of admitting anyone infected with the disease. 

Getting accustomed to face masks – Local road improvements – A social event in Washington – A would-be murderess – The racism of Black Lives Matter – Will the Fourth of July exacerbate the effects of the virus? – Evening statistics

I seem to be getting more acclimatized to wearing a face mask.  Even though it was very hot today (over 95 degrees, or 35 degrees Celsius) I did not find it especially uncomfortable.  We certainly can get used to things quickly.  I look back with some amusement on earlier entries about adjusting to the use of face masks.  I now put on a face mask whenever I go outside of the house on foot, as automatically as I put on pants while dressing in the morning. 

The traffic light at the intersection between Rte. 7 and Battlefield Parkway will be coming down once it is replaced by an overpass and interchange ramps.  The transformation of Rte. 7 over the years has been remarkable.  I can remember a time when it was clogged with traffic lights and people would go out of their way to avoid it during travel between Fairfax and Loudoun Counties.  But over the years the traffic lights have been replaced with overpasses and interchange ramps, and it is now nearly as easy to use as a freeway – indeed it is a freeway in everything but name.  Construction has been tying up traffic in the metro area for many months, so it is gratifying to see at least some of it obtaining positive results for the long term.

Ashley Taylor Bronczek, a D.C. socialite, hosted a catered dinner for about 20-25 guests in her backyard on June 18^th, when the lockdown restrictions at the time limited social occasions to no more than ten people.  On her Instagram account she discoursed about this important event.  She had sent out invitations to scads of the most divine people; and she connected with a fabulous new number, one of those people you can really talk to; and everything was just too hysterical by the time she showed up (because she can’t bear to be the first one at her own party); and the evening couldn’t have been more perfect – couldn’t have been more people absolutely plastered.  Well, I may not have gotten the wording quite right; but that was the gist of it.  The only little drawback was that she developed symptoms a few hours later and was diagnosed with the virus.  Fearful of the social fallout, she did not exactly rush to inform her companions.  They ended up feeling much less friendly towards her when she finally texted the information to them, causing them to stampede to get testing.  Her neighbors are rather resentful as well, for at this point nobody in the area knows to what extent the virus might have spread.  The sentiments of the caterers have not been recorded; but since they have now been quarantined for circulating among the infected guests and will be unable to obtain work for several days to come, we may assume that they also are not particularly delighted.

Claira Janover issued a video on TikTok threatening to stab anyone who responds with “all lives matter” to the “black lives matter” motto.  Deloitte, her employer, was understandably dismayed by the discovery of a budding young psychopath in its midst and was quick to fire her.  Janover now claims that the video was a joke and has issued a second video, bemoaning the loss of her job and blaming the debacle on Trump supporters.  Janover is a Harvard graduate, but evidently she has not yet learned that issuing death threats on public media is not a joking matter; and indeed that does not appear to be a lesson that Harvard or our collegiate system in general wishes to teach.

The media in general has covered the Black Lives Matter movement favorably, but it is every bit as racist and vicious as the bigots it professes to condemn.  On Wednesday the BLM advocates were marching through the streets of Washington, chanting the ancient blood libel against the Jews and calling for their extermination.

Tomorrow is the Fourth of July.  Most of the celebrations in Northern Virginia have been canceled.  For example, in the park of the central block in Fairfax City, there is a banner wishing everyone a happy Fourth and underneath, in smaller letters, “There’s no place like home” – as a hint not to expect the parade and the fireworks show we generally have at this time of year.  But many celebratory events will be held in other places and this circumstance, in conjunction with the fact that the lockdown restrictions are being eliminated in most states, will probably cause yet an additional spike in the virus cases. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 11,180,053; # of deaths worldwide: 528,376; # of cases U.S.: 2,890,406 # of deaths U.S.: 132,101.  Today the increase in the number of cases worldwide was over 200,000.  The increase has been over one million in the past week.  And in the U.S. we have had yet another day with an increase of greater than 50,000.  India’ case count is nearly equal to Russia’s (its national population, to be sure, is nearly ten times as large) and both the case counts of both Peru and Chile are just a little less than Spain’s.  Mexico, Iran, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa are also rapidly gaining. In fairness it must be said that the number of cases rated as severe are considerably less – under 60,000 worldwide and under 16,000 in the U.S.  The mortality rate is now at about 4.7% worldwide, which is certainly significant but it is not at this stage catastrophic.

Never take security for granted – Outside dining in Fairfax – Rte. 123 – Death toll remains steady – Evening statistics

 “. . . the Schegel household continued to lead its life of cultured but not ignoble ease, still swimming gracefully on the grey tides of London.  Concerts and plays swept past them, money had been spent and renewed, reputations won and lost, and the city herself, emblematic of their lives, rose and fell in a continual flux . . .”  Substitute “Washington” for “London,” and the Schlegel siblings’ mode of living in E. M. Forster’s Howard’s End sounds rather like my own since retirement.  I did not, to be sure, come into such a position through inheritance; it took a fair amount of effort to reach this degree of security.  But one must not allow oneself to become complacent – of that I was aware long before the pandemic started.  In this context one of my heroines should be mentioned:  Letizia Ramolino, the mother of Napoleon.  After her son came to power he made one of his brothers King of Spain, another King of Holland, one of his sisters Queen of Naples, and so on; and in addition he gave his mother a handsome allowance.  She was later asked why she lived so quietly and deposited most of the money she received from her son into a Swiss bank, and her reply was:  “Someday I may have to provide for all of these kings and queens.”  When her son was crowned as Emperor her reaction was to say “pourvu que ça dure!” – “if only it lasts!”  After Napoleon’s downfall, she lived comfortably on her savings and managed, as she foresaw would be necessary, to support several of her descendants.  Never during my lifetime has an outlook such as hers been more appropriate than at the present moment. 

The City of Fairfax has set aside some areas along its central block for outside dining, complete with chairs and tables set at an appropriate distance from one another.  This arrangement will last until the end of the summer.  I can’t help wondering how restaurants will manage once the cold weather sets in and outside dining becomes less feasible.  Will the virus subside by then?  At this point it does not seem likely.  Dr. Fauci says that our daily increase of new cases may rise to as many as 100,000 daily, which means that every month about 1% of the national population would be newly infected. 

It looks like the construction on Rte. 123 is in the final stages at last.  For more than a year this road, which is the major north/south traffic artery through the city, has blocked off its northbound traffic and compelled it to detour through various local roads, thereby increasing the city’s traffic burden not a little.  The purpose of this construction has been to put a new sidewalk on the west side of the road, and it certainly was needed.  Walking along the road in that area could be quite hazardous; the shoulder came to an abrupt end at the point where the new sidewalk has been put in, and one either had to dart across the street to reach the other side or attempt to walk within the road itself, dodging the traffic.    But the construction has lasted well over a year, and everyone is in hopes that this traffic barrier will disappear within a few days.

Today’s entry is mainly about domestic matters; national and international ones will have to wait for another day.  There is one puzzling aspect of the pandemic to be noted:

The case count has been increasing at an exponential rate but the death toll has remained steady up to now.  There are numerous theories to explain this.  One is that the spikes are relatively recent and the time-lag from infection to death is generally two weeks or more.  Another is that the spikes have affected a greater number of younger people, who have more resistance to the disease and better chances of survival.  Yet another explanation is that testing is now being conducted on a much larger scale, so that we are now identifying a greater of number people who have been infected by the virus but who have remained asymptomatic.  Any or all of these may be true.  We shall see within the next week or so whether the death toll will spike in the manner that the cases have done.  At this point we have nearly 16,000 persons whose state is considered serious, or slightly over 1% of the cases that are still active. Our mortality rate to date is about 4.6%, very slightly less than the worldwide average.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 10,970,706; # of deaths worldwide: 523,171; # of cases U.S.: 2,833,686 # of deaths U.S.: 131,417.  Yet another day with a case increase of more than 50,000 for our country and more than 200,000 worldwide.  Peru and Chile have now surpassed the U.K. in their case counts.  Chile’s case rate is particularly high, nearly 1.5% of its population. 

The picture darkens – National aversion to discipline – The oncoming football season – Consequences of being caught off-guard – In Catoctin Mountain National Park – Evening statistics

When I began this journal the entries were relatively light-hearted in tone, but that has become difficult to sustain over the past several days.  Even as late as the middle of June – just two weeks ago – it was possible to believe that the effects of the virus, though far-reaching, were containable.  But the lockdown restrictions almost entirely disappeared at about that time and now, for the past week, we have had a case count increase in excess of 40,000 per day.  This increase is occurring as countries in continental Europe (excluding Russia) have a much lower rate of increase, perhaps less than a sixth of our own from the totals of all of the continental European nations combined.  The EU at this point will not open its doors to American travelers, and it is difficult to blame them.  They must look upon us as one of the least disciplined national groups in the world.    

I have been severe upon President Trump throughout this journal and, as I think, justifiably; but in a sense he epitomizes the nation as a whole.  The concept of deferring a gratification in the immediate present in order to provide for the future appears to be as incomprehensible to the populace at large as it is to him.  The dangers of assembling in large groups during the pandemic have become apparent to the dullest comprehension; and yet people seem unable to resist any opportunity of doing so – whether it is in bars or in churches, on beaches or in vacation resorts, in political rallies or protest marches, in large private parties or official galas.  Can we really be the same nation that a bare 80 years ago entered a world war and endured privations that lasted for years? – if not uncomplainingly, at any rate with a degree of stoicism.  We now transform a trifle as light as air into a crippling imposition – as in, for example, the wearing of face masks.  Service workers in stores have been assaulted on numerous occasions by customers for requesting them to comply with the face mask mandates.

In a similar vein, preparations are underway for inaugurating the football season, both for the NFL and on the collegiate level, without a single dissenting voice.  One might say, for the sake of argument, that the games will be held out of doors and that the dangers of contagion may be substantially less than, say, a rally like the recent one in Tulsa; but it is significant that cancelation of the games for the coming season is not even considered as a possibility.  Our health care workers are being strained to the point of collapse from the continual influx of new coronavirus patients on a daily basis; but we mustn’t allow a trifle like that to interfere with so vital a public amusement.

Actually I am in error when I say that there is no dissenting voice, for Dr. Fauci has dared to attempt to pull down the idols in high places by suggesting that it might be just as well not to have any games while the pandemic is still expanding.  But you see that our President and the NFL officials and the college administrators and the coaches and the players are men of spirit, and will not of course allow themselves to be dictated to by a mere immunologist.  And the majority of the populace is completely in accord with them, being addicted to the panem et circenses dispensed by the powers that be – and at this stage they appear to attach more importance to the circuses than to the bread.

There is a recent episode that could be taken as a kind of morality tale.  Thomas Macias, a truck driver in California, was going out only when necessary from late March to early June.  He was keeping himself in a kind of modified quarantine because he was overweight and had diabetes, which are the two main complicating factors for coronavirus patients.  But at last he relaxed his guard and during the first week of June he attended a large party in Lake Elsinore, about 70 miles southeast of Los Angeles.  One of the guests had tested positive for the virus, but didn’t tell anyone until afterwards – believing that, as he was asymptomatic, he wouldn’t be able to infect anyone else.  Macias was one of a dozen attendees who came down with the virus; and in his case it proved fatal.  As in so many of these stories, the speed with which the illness progressed is startling.  He met with his sister and brother-in-law on June 11^th, before he was aware that he had been infected, although the brother-in-law thought that he looked ill.  His symptoms worsened; he was tested for the virus on June 16^th and received a diagnosis of positive on June 18^th.  On June 21^st he had to be rushed to a hospital at 11:00 AM; he was put on a ventilator between 6:00 and 7:00 PM, and died by 9:00 PM.    

One continues under the circumstances as best one might.  I went out today to Catoctin Mountain Park, which is a convenient distance from my house (a little over an hour’s drive) and, despite its relatively low elevations, has several scenic overlooks, including the ramble over the quartzite ledge of Wolf Rock and the view from Chimney Rock of blue hills in the distance.  I went in the clockwise direction, starting from the Visitor Center and going toward Cunningham Falls first, then along Hogback Overlook and Thurmont Vista.  It was a considerably easier hike than yesterday’s but not without its challenges.  The last part (the trail that parallels Rte. 77 back to the Visitor Center) is rockier than I remembered.  Catoctin Mountain Park is not especially high in elevation, but even the slight increase in altitude and the abundance of shade made the temperatures there about ten degrees cooler than they were at home.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 10,592,673; # of deaths worldwide: 518,037; # of cases U.S.: 2,778,130 # of deaths U.S.: 130,785.  We have had over 50,000 new cases today.  The rate of new cases is holding steady in only nine states (Connecticut, Indiana, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New Jersey, New York, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Virginia) and decreasing in only three states (Maryland, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island) plus the District of Columbia.  In all other states the rate is steadily increasing.