Month: October 2020

Plans for hiking in Pennsylvania – Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is not one to submit tamely – The claims of Donald Trump Jr. vs. reality – Evening statistics

The dreary weather of yesterday has been easing since the morning and during the afternoon it became reasonably sunny.  The forecasts for the mid-Atlantic generally are favorable now that the effects of Zeta have come and gone (and compared with the Gulf Coast area we got off lightly, with only a day of continual rain, and little wind to cause any damage), so I plan to take a brief jaunt over the weekend to further my goal of completing the Appalachian Trail in Pennsylvania by the end of the year.  I don’t know if I can do the complete all that remains but with luck I should be able to cover the distance between LeHigh Gap and Rte. 309 on Sunday (about 13½ miles each way, which should be feasible if I start sufficiently early and if the drive to and from the trailhead is less than an hour). 

I have been critical of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in the past, but in the current contretemps that has erupted about her I stand firmly in her support.  She has been assailed by various conservatives for publicly appearing in expensive clothes – specifically, for a photo on the cover of the Vanity Fair magazine.  There is nothing intrinsically wrong with a woman (or a man, for that matter) wishing to look well-groomed and fashionable, and many conservative figures have done so on numerous public appearances.  Melania, Ivanka, and Tiffany Trump have done precisely the same thing, without so much as a word of criticism directed at them.  At least AOC pays her tailoring bills, which is more than I can guarantee for any member of the President’s family, given the example that its amiable patriarch sets by consistently defaulting on his personal debts.  She has responded to these attacks with characteristic vigor:  e.g., “Listen, if Republicans want pointers on looking your best, I’m happy to share,” and, in a comeback to Laura Ingraham’s comment about wearing outfits costing $14,000 in order to curse out Trump, “100% worth it, would do it again.” 

The First Family has been making headlines on its own account, or at any rate one member has.  Donald Trump Jr., in the course of abusing Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and Attorney General Keith Ellison for limiting attendance at President Trump’s upcoming Minnesota rally to 250 people in order to comply with the COVID guidelines (he is inclined to issue gross insults towards anyone whose opinions differ from his own, a habit he has acquired from his father), claimed that deaths in the U.S. due to COVID-19 are down to almost nothing.  In fact, an average of close to one thousand daily is succumbing to the disease.  We are #10 in the list of nations ranked by mortality rate and two of the nations listed above us – San Marino and Andorra – are micro-states.  Donald Trump Jr. cannot possibly excel his father’s record for blatant falsehoods, but he’s certainly giving it the good old college try.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide 45,890,088; # of deaths worldwide: 1,193,200; # of cases U.S.: 9,314,309             ; # of deaths U.S.: 235,142.  Today’s case increase was nearly 100,000, and we have had yet another day of nearly 1,000 deaths.  Our death toll has doubled since the middle of June; at the rate it is increasing, it will double again in another four months.  So much for the claims about the virus being under control.  At one point it appeared that Brazil’s case count was catching up to ours and would exceed it, but that is no longer true; its case count is now less than 60% of our own. 

Late autumn as soup season – The Islamic attacks in France – Evening statistics

Another relatively brief entry today, partly on account of the rain, which prevented me from doing much of anything.   Late autumn is a good time to experiment with various soups, however, so I ventured on preparing potage St. Germain, or French pea soup.  And it turned out well, but I would not be able to serve it to my vegan friends or even to my vegetarian ones without some modification:  it includes butter, cream, and a touch of salt pork.  It has a better flavor than the standard split pea soup because it corporates fresh peas and mint leaves in addition to the split peas and the texture is lighter and richer.  I’ve seen versions of the recipe that do not use the salt port (the addition it  makes to the flavor is not very noticeable), so I probably can omit that ingredient when catering to vegetarians; making it suitable for vegans will require some more innovation.  Something would have to take the place of the butter and cream in order to duplicate the texture, but I don’t know what can be used as a substitute.  A few of my cousins are vegan, so I will consult them for suggestions.

As far as news is concerned, we are basically in a holding pattern until the election.  Most of the headlines are focusing on details of the campaigns from both candidates.  The main topic outside of the election is the recent spate of killings in the French city of Nice by Muslim extremists.  Except one has to wonder if they should be called extremists.  When Christian fundamentalists commit atrocities, church groups in general are swift to condemn them.  Representatives of mosques are much more reluctant to follow suit when fundamentalists of their own religion commit murder and rapine.  A considerable number of Muslims appear indeed to be supporting them.  The government of Turkey has called for a boycott of French goods after Emmanuel Macron, the French President, gave orders to crack down on the persons who aided the perpetrator of an earlier beheading of a school teacher, while Mahathir Mohamad, a former Prime Minister of Malaysia, has said that Muslims have a right “to kill millions of French people for the massacres of the past.”  The current administration of one Muslim country and a former Prime Minister of another:  that seems fairly mainstream to me.  I do not see that Muslims in general are rushing to denounce and to disassociate themselves from the more extreme actions of their fundamentalists.  Some have issued statements to the effect that such actions are a distortion of Islam; but as Irshad Manji, the most clear-sighted opponent of Islamic fundamentalist violence, has pointed out:  “we Muslims will repeat, ‘This is not Islam.’ But in any religion, beliefs are only theory. The behavior of believers is reality. (Qur’an 4:135)”

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide 45,298,412; # of deaths worldwide: 1,185,618 # of cases U.S.: 9,204,472; # of deaths U.S.: 234,100.  Today has also seen a record number of new cases (over 80,000), with nearly 1,000 additional deaths.  It would seem that we are now, like many European nations, in the so-called “second wave” of the virus, were it not for the fact that we never really came to the end of the first one.  What is certain is that the reduction of outdoor activity as a result of colder temperatures will continue to drive the infection rates upwards. Virginia appears to be a relatively good location to be living in at the moment; it is 32^nd in the list of states ranked by the virus’s incidence rate and 38^th in mortality rate. 

Philadephia:  a retrospective – The rally in Omaha – Evening statistics – The second wave in Europe

In Philadelphia rioting and looting has been ongoing for the second consecutive day following the shooting death of Walter Wallace, policemen have sustained numerous injuries, and residents have been placed under curfew – but I am neglecting my responsibilities.  I should be concentrating on new developments and not dwelling upon such trite tales.  To say that the residents of Philadelphia skulk about in fear and trepidation is like saying that grass is green and that rain is wet; they’ve been doing nothing else for years.  I mention the circumstance for old acquaintance sake, having had the misfortune to live in that gloomy, unwelcoming, violence-plagued, inhospitable city when I was a graduate student.  My movements during that period had to be very circumscribed indeed, not only on account of the hostility (none the less acute for being quite impersonal, being generated out of a love of malice for its own sake) that greeted me whenever I ventured on foot into any neighborhood, black or white, outside of the university campus, but also on account the drivers’ attitudes towards pedestrians, by far the worst of any city I have visited, including Beijing and Rome.  The Boston drivers, who have a reputation of making life miserable for those who walk the streets of their city, are models of courtesy in comparison.  Then there was the matter of the football games; whether the Eagles were victorious or defeated for the day, any game they played was a guarantee of a sleepless night, on account of the enthusiastic expressions of glee or disappointment on the part of their dedicated fanbase on the neighborhood streets, lasting well after 4:00 AM.   So great was my resentment at being forced to restrict my movements on a daily basis and so great was the loathing that I developed for the place, that it reached a point when I began to wonder whether, if I were to hear of a catastrophe that wreaked destruction upon the entire city, I would be able to display the proper amount of grief.  This animus has modified somewhat over the years.  The city is said to have improved since the time I resided there and on the brief visits that I have made on occasion I have seen for myself that the area around the university is much pleasanter than it was in former days – but the city appears to be regressing yet again, and on the whole I would be just as well satisfied not to see it any more. 

The rally for Trump in Nebraska was not without interest.  It took place at the Eppley Airfield in Omaha, with temperatures in the 30s.  Several were taken to the hospital after the event as a result of standing for hours in the freezing cold and some had to walk three miles to the shuttle buses after Trump ended his speech and departed.  This image of Trump’s supporters being left out in the cold is no very inapt emblem of his administrative approach in general, as Biden (among others) was swift to point out. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 44,738,099; # of deaths worldwide: 1,178,513; # of cases U.S.: 9,117,931; # of deaths U.S.: 233,123.  We have sustained nearly 80,000 new cases today, the highest daily total to date, and over 1,000 deaths; of the daily increase in deaths worldwide, we account for 14/6% of the total. 

Ours is not the only nation undergoing difficulties, of course.  Germany has now imposed a new lockdown that will last at least four weeks.  Restaurants, bars, cinemas, theaters and other leisure facilities have been shut down, although restaurants may provide takeout for their customers.  The country had nearly 15,000 new cases today and many more are predicted.  France is also imposing a lockdown; more than half of its intensive care units are occupied by COVID patients.  Belgium, the Netherlands, Spain, Britain and the Czech Republic have all seen a surge of new cases in the past 14 days.  The European region in general (which as defined by the WHO includes Russia, Turkey, Israel and Central Asia) is entrenched in the so-called “second wave”; it accounts for nearly half of the new COVID virus cases this week. 

Hiking in the area of Harper’s Ferry – Mileage for the year – Finding one’s “comfort zone” – The energy of Donald Trump – Unreliability of polls – Evening statistics

I went with the Vigorous Hikers on a hike similar to the one we did on March 31^st, starting at the School Ridge along Bakerton Road.  The difference is that the pedestrian bridge over the Potomac had been closed earlier as a result of a train accident that caused so much damage as to render the bridge unusable, whereas it is fixed now.  We were thus able to go today from School Ridge to the Maryland side of the Potomac and then ascend Maryland Heights via a little-used route that approaches the overlook from the south.  After that we went up to the Stone Fort and descended down to Harper’s Ferry, where we took the Appalachian Trail through the town, cut across to another trail alongside the Shenandoah that eventually led to the Visitor Center, and then back to our parking area via Bolivar Heights.  The forecast had been for a rather cloudy and cool day, but it was a beautiful day in our area, quite sunny and relatively warm.  The views from Maryland Heights in particular were exceptionally clear.  I have not seen the overlook with so few people before.  Normally it is fairly crowded, even on weekdays.  However, it is now fairly late in the season, and fewer people are hiking as a result. 

The hike was 15½ miles, bringing the total amount of mileage hiked on the trails for the year to over 1700.  At this rate it looks like I will be logging in about 2,000 miles by the end of the year.  I hiked just under 1750 miles last year, which gives some indication of the rate of increase in hiking that resulted from the impact of the virus placing restrictions on so many other activities.

The hike on March 31^st was the first one in which I participated after various lockdown restrictions were issued, and I felt rather nervous then about traveling across state lines to meet with others for the purposes of hiking together.  The restrictions for out of doors for recreational purposes were rather vague, and at that point in time – it seems so long ago now – no one was certain about how exactly the restrictions would be enforced.  Now any such restrictions have been removed and I’ve been hiking with others so often that it causes no uneasiness at this point.  Such activities may show a bit of over-confidence, but it seems that out-of-door activity with others is much less likely to lead to infection than indoor gatherings – though of course the potential for catching the virus in this way is always present.  As one member of the group said, “Everyone has to work out his own comfort zone.”  I wear a mask while walking on the streets and entering stores, such social gatherings that I have attended have been with only a few others (never any with more than eight people) and for the most part out of doors, and social activity in general has been greatly reduced.  On the other side, I still do my own shopping rather than relying on deliveries and I go out hiking with others periodically.  I suppose I am pretty much middle-of-the-road as far as taking precautions against the virus is concerned.

I’ve been fluctuating about the prospects of the election results.  Much as I hate to admit it, Donald Trump is certainly energetic.  Despite having been ill so recently, he has taken on a grueling campaign schedule, organizing rallies in state after state, and speaking well over an hour on end at every single one of them.  Perhaps I should not be surprised; he has a great deal at stake.  If he does not secure office again, several lawsuits are pending– including at least one for attempted rape (!) – and their adjudications await him.  Without his high position to protect him, he can anticipate the loss of a great deal of money and even a possible term in prison.  

In the Icelandic saga of Njal, the eponymous character at one point notices a stranger in his household and he asks his wife who this new man is.  “He is one of your servants,” she replies, “I engaged him because he claimed to be ready with his hands.”  Njal guesses that his wife hired the man to do some unsavory task (specifically, to avenge the murder of one servant by stabbing the perpetrator), but his only comment is:  “His work will have vigor enough.  I’m not so sure of its value.”  That is perhaps as good a summation as any of my own opinion about our President’s recent activities.

Also, I have read a rather depressing interview with an experienced pollster who said, in effect, that the polls cannot be trusted.  When Hillary Clinton described those who voted for Trump in the 2016 election as “deplorables,” she unwittingly sowed the seeds of her own defeat.  Many people interviewed by poll-takers were reluctant to identify themselves with such a label, which had been taken up vigorously by several media outlets, and indicated that they would be voting for Clinton while resolving in secret to vote for her opponent.  As a result the poll results were misleading, giving Clinton a false level of confidence.  Biden, to be sure, is showing much less reliance on the polls than Clinton did and he does not personally denigrate those who vote for Trump; but his followers have no such restraint, and their frequent assertions that voters for Biden are better than voters for Trump both on moral and on intellectual grounds have resulted in the same evasive behavior by voters being interviewed by poll-takers. 

I admit to being somewhat perplexed myself by those who continue to support Trump, particularly in view of the daily statistics:

# of cases worldwide: 44,230,185; # of deaths worldwide: 1,171,188; # of cases U.S.: 9,034,338; # of deaths U.S.: 232,017.  Another day with over 70,000 new cases and nearly 1,000 deaths.  Our case count is now over 9 million, something over 20% of the COVID cases worldwide.  This figure is less disproportionate than it was some months ago, but it is still is a regrettable result for a country with 4% of the world’s population.  Our mortality rate is about 2.56%, slightly under that of 2.64% worldwide.  Even with our slightly lower mortality rate, our nation accounts for 19.8% of the deaths globally resulting from COVID. 

COVID in an assisted-living facility – Amy Barrett’s confirmation – Evening statistics

A brief entry today, with relatively little to record either about private life or the public sector.  I mainly went on various tasks today, shopping for various items, obtaining emissions testing for my car, and so on.  One of the errands was to visit my mother at the assisted-living facility.  Despite the efforts of the administrators running the facility, some isolated cases of the virus have broken out there.  All of the affected inmates have been placed under quarantine and restrictions on visits from outside have increased.  My mother’s caretaker assures me that my mother does not go out at all, while her caretaker goes out only for occasional errands such as picking up medicine at the pharmacy.  The opportunities for getting infected are thus relatively low, but it is disquieting.  Moving my mother elsewhere at this point is not feasible (she is wheelchair-bound and barely responds to outside stimuli of any kind) and all we can do is to wait it out.

The virus has made inroads in the public sector as well.  Mike Pence agreed not to preside over Amy Barrett’s confirmation hearing tonight because several members of his staff have tested positive for COVID and many attendees on both sides were concerned that his presence might expose them to greater risk of infection.  In the event, his vote was not needed.  The Vice President is expected to vote only if the Senate votes both pro and con are equal and a tie-breaking vote is required.  In this case 52 Senators voted in favor of Barrett, and thus she has been pushed through in what must go down as the swiftest Supreme Court Judge appointment in history, a bare 30 days after the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg and just a week before the election.  As many Democrats pointed out, the Republicans objected strongly to the nomination of Merrick Garland during Obama’s last year of administration, delaying matters for 293 days until the reins of power were held by Trump, enabling him to nominate Neil Gorsuch instead.  There thus is not even a pretense of evaluating a nominee upon his or her legal qualifications; ideology appears to be the only criterion that matters.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 43,762,880; # of deaths worldwide: 1,164,191; # of cases U.S.: 8,959,931; # of deaths U.S.: 231,028.  

A canceled hike – A defector from Trump’s policy towards the virus – Mark Meadows’ attitude of surrender – New restrictions in the U.K., Spain, and Italy – Evening statistics

I was supposed to hike with AD and a few others today, but the hike has been called off.  It was raining steadily when I arose this morning and it was supposed to continue to rain all day long.  The rain actually tapered off at times, but for the most part it was fairly dreary outside.  I was prepared to go through it and I have hiked in bad weather before, but it was a relief, all the same, to hear that everyone else decided to bow out.  Hiking in the rain simply isn’t much fun.  The last day of the hiking tour along the coast of Pembrokeshire a year ago our group had to go from Newport to St. Dogmael’s in a continual rain, with sharp winds in addition, over the course of 16 miles, and we were all very weary and dispirited by the end.  The hike that we had planned to do today – the loop from Elizabeth Furnace along Sherman Gap and Shawl Gap – could have been a hazardous undertaking under the circumstances.  The ascent up Sherman Gap in particular is steep and rocky, with numerous streamlets that cross the trail and that overflow very readily.  Even had we gone through with our plans to hike today, we certainly would have had to alter our route to something less risky in wet weather.

At least one prominent Trump supporter has become an advocate of wearing face masks, in defiance of his idol.  Chris Christie, the former governor of New Jersey, was hospitalized for COVID earlier this month, almost certainly as a result of attending an event at the White House.  He is now urging people to wear masks, saying that being without a mask such an event was a “serious failure” for him and that he is “lucky to be alive.”  He has not criticized Trump directly, but he has criticized Mike Pence for continuing to campaign after several of the latter’s senior staff (including Mark Short, Pence’s chief of staff) tested positive for the virus. 

Trump’s policy of ignoring the virus has worked against his own interests.  It is a statistical certainty that some of the members of Trump’s and Pence’s inmost circles currently affected by the virus will either die of it or be so severely ill as to be incapacitated for months.  Yet Donald Trump’s White House chief of staff Mark Meadows has now stated openly said that the coronavirus can’t be contained, ignoring the fact that many other countries have made at least an attempt to contain it and have a much lower casualty rate as a result.

The U.K. now has restrictions all across the country.  The default level is the so-called Tier 1:  no social gatherings indoors with more than six people, any consumption of food in restaurants and bars occurs only by customers who are seated, bars close between 10:00 PM and 5:00 AM, wedding ceremonies are limited to 15 attendees total, and funerals to 30 attendees.  For Tier 2 (which extends to parts of London and several areas in the Home Counties), the restrictions are greater:  no indoor social gatherings at all and no indoor sports or indoor gym exercise except among groups of immediate relatives.  For Tier 3 (much of Yorkshire and Lancashire), bars and pubs must operate as restaurants only and alcohol consumption can take place only at meals.  Travel in and out of such areas is strongly discouraged.  One friend of mine, who lives in Shropshire, was vacationing in Wales when the restrictions were announced; whereupon he hastened to return home, not wishing to take the chance of his area being upgraded to a travel-restricted area and thereby leaving him stranded.

Spain has declared a state of emergency and has imposed a daily curfew lasting from 11:00 PM to 6:00 AM.  Italy has also imposed new restrictions:  Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte ordered that gyms, swimming pools, theaters and cinemas shut down as of tomorrow and not re-open until Nov. 24^th. Both nations were among the hardest hit by the first wave of the pandemic, but for a while it seemed that the amount of contagion had fallen under control.  But new infections have recently been increasing at an alarming rate, and once again its death tolls have been soaring.  

The rise of cases in the U.S. over the past several tests has already been recorded, although there is one re-assuring note:  the percentage of tests that yield positive results has gone down.  The average rate is now a little over 6%, a substantial reduction over the 22% rate that was prevalent during the month of April. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 43,319,804; # of deaths worldwide: 1,158,770; # of cases U.S.: 8,888,328; # of deaths U.S.: 230,507.  For once, a daily death toll of less than 500, the first time in many days. 

Extension of Farmer’s Market schedule – How to handle Halloween? – Hesitation in taking a COVID vaccine when developed – The virus in Poland – The imminent demise of The Strand – Evening statistics

I went to the Farmer’s Market, the last one to be held this year, or so I thought.  In the past they began in May and ended in October.  However, as I found out, this year the season has been extended for three weeks in November, as part of the effort to ensure continual economic activity.  It certainly is convenient; it is very pleasant, for instance, to be able to buy pickling cucumbers (which are the ideal size for including in pack lunches to bring along on hikes) without worrying about their spoiling so rapidly in the manner that packaged cucumbers from the supermarket do.

There is some confusion as to what to do about Halloween this year.  Normally I have candy on hand for trick-or-treaters, but this year I’m reluctant to open the door to interact with numbers of parents and children, and for that matter parents are reluctant to go from door to door with their children.  The risk of infection is not great, but the general attitude seems to be:  why take unnecessary chances?  I suppose I can put out a bowlful of candy with a note asking those who venture out for the evening to take one portion only and leave some for the others, but that hasn’t worked out very well in previous years when I’ve not been at home on Halloween evenings, and there’s no reason to suppose that this year will be any different in that respect.  There generally is at least one teenager roaming on his own who will grab anything that he can get.

A recent survey in the U.K. the U.S., and Spain explored the issue of vaccine hesitancy.  This is not the same as anti-vaccination; people simply are reluctant to accept a new vaccine without any proven record of success.  I myself am among these.  Should a vaccine be completed and approved by the FDA, I will not be rushing to take it.  I will wait some months in order to obtain sampling data as to whether or not its side effects are potentially dangerous.  With an aggressive development schedule such as that for the COVID virus vaccine, such side effects are more likely to occur.  It seems that my attitude is far from unique; of those who responded to the survey, only 46.8% said that they would completely agree with FDA recommendations. 

Yet another national leader has become infected.  Poland’s President Andrzej Duda tested positive for the virus today; he says that he has no symptoms but has placed himself in quarantine.  As is the case with many other countries in Europe, the recent spikes in the virus after a relative flattening of the curve during the summer has strained Poland’s hospital system to the breaking point.  The government is preparing to open field hospitals but it is not sure where it will find the doctors and nurses to staff them.  It has also instituted new restrictions, although it has not gone so far as to impose a complete lockdown. 

Another economic casualty is looming as a result of the COVID virus.  The iconic Strand bookstore in New York, which is nearly a century old and has survived crises such as the Great Depression, World War II, and e-commerce challengers, may be defeated by the virus.  Revenues have declined by 70% this year and the owners have said that they have reached a point at which continuing to operate is no longer feasible.  Independent bookstores generally have undergone great economic stress even before the virus began.  Of the 48 bookstores that used to be neighborhood known as “Book Row,” only the Strand remains.  An online campaign has begun to save the bookstore; one can only hope that it will succeed.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 42,913,857; # of deaths worldwide: 1,154,282; # of cases U.S.: 8,824,114; # of deaths U.S.: 230,045.  India at one point was threatening to overtake our case count and become the country with the greatest number of COVID cases in absolute numbers (though still well below our incidence rate, on account of its much larger population), but that has changed in recent weeks.  Several days of increases well over 70,000 apiece have pushed us firmly into first place with no likelihood of being challenged for the title for some time to come.  Our case count now exceeds India’s by nearly 1,000,000.  Peru is the only nation with a population over 10,000,000 whose incidence rate exceeds our own. 

The last debate – Eric Trump defends his father “not wisely but too well” – Another hiking incident – Recollections of a well-known missing hiker case – Evening statistics

The debate of last night was not the fiasco I was anticipating.  The threat of the mute button appears to have affected both candidates – can we make this feature a permanent one for all future debates?  Trump in particular showed considerable restraint in comparison with his previous performance.  As for Biden – he will never be a great debater and his energy seemed to flag in the second hour, but he made his points with conviction and he managed to slip in some good one-liners, as evidenced in the following exchange about the coronavirus:

TRUMP:  We’re learning to live with it.

BIDEN:  We’re dying with it.

Kristen Welker must be commended; she refused to be bullied or to be deflected from her line of questioning.  At the same time, she did not draw attention to herself; she concentrated on delivering an actual debate between the two candidates and she was far more successful in this respect than the previous moderators.

Trump’s answers to her questions were what might be expected, although he did not make a spectacle of himself in the manner of the first debate.  Truth, as should be evident, is not a high priority for him.  Perhaps that is the case for any politician, but his disregard for it at times has to be heard to be believed.  He said, for instance, that we’re “rounding the corner” as far as the virus is concerned, quite a startling claim in view of the fact that cases are rising in 34 states, hospitalizations have increased in 37 states, and the average daily rate of increase in new infections has been about 59,000 ever since August.  What a good story Trump has to present to us – if only those pesky statistics didn’t get in the way.

At any rate it is over, thankfully over.  No one will change his mind about either candidate as a result, but at least we can end the cycle of debates on a much more sedate note than the one with which it began. One might even go so far as to say that last night’s debate added an element of respectability to the proceedings.  The first debate made us a global laughing-stock, so it is a relief to see our electioneering system redeemed to some extent by this one.

Whatever else may be said about Donald Trump, his children certainly have the quality of loyalty.  Whether they have the quality of intelligence as well is . . . debatable.  Here, for example, is Eric Trump, leaping to his father’s defense concerning the latter’s recent interview with Leslie Stahl:  “Who can blame my father for walking out on Leslie Stahl and 60 Minutes?  That show is simply a waste of half an hour.”  What am I missing here?  Has CBS revamped its schedule on a whim and changed “60 Minutes” to “30 Minutes”?

There is news of another hiking incident, this one concerning a missing hiker.  Such reports are a warning.  As the journal indicates, I hike a great deal, and I don’t always notify people in advance about the route I plan to take if I hike alone, even though I know that I should.  Sam Dubal, an assistant professor at the University of Washington, was reported missing on October 12^th after he didn’t return from a hiking trip in Mount Rainier National Park.  He had left on the 9^th and was supposed to return the following day.  He was 33 years old, in good physical condition, and an experienced hiker, but in the nine days that followed the report searches from rangers, volunteer hikers, and helicopter crews for him found nothing.  His relatives believe that he is still alive and are urging the park service to continue the search, but his chances for survival are minimal at best by this time.

In 2017, when I attended the Appalachian Trail Conference, one of the hikes I led took me past the location where Geraldine Largay had last been traced.  I admit that I was curious to see it, for her story had been repeated many times among the hiking community.  She was hiking the AT four years earlier, starting from Harper’s Ferry and intending to end at Katahdin, for the most part in company with another, more experienced hiker.  But her companion had to bail out in New Hampshire on account of a family emergency, at which point Largay continued on her own.  In central Maine she left the trail to relieve herself and then was unable to find the trail again.  The woods there are very dense and it is easy to get lost even if you step as little as fifty feet away from the trail.  When she realized that she was lost she went up to higher ground, presumably in the hope of getting a better cell phone signal, but also, unfortunately, venturing further from the trail.  Finally she set up camp in a location about 2 miles from the trail and waited in hopes that a search party would find her.  They never did, despite their best efforts.  It was only two years after her death, from exposure and starvation, that a logging company surveyor accidentally came across her campsite and her remains. 

I could hardly believe it when I passed the area in question.  I had imagined it, from the reports I read earlier, to be an almost impossibly remote place, miles away from any human habitation.  In fact, the trail at that point is close to a stream.  Had I been in such a situation, I would have aimed for the stream and followed its course.  In one direction the stream comes to the end of a forest road within 100 yards from her probable point of departure from the AT.  In the other direction it lets out onto a second woods road about 1½ miles away.  In either case I would have walked along the road until I found an occupied house or a car driver.  But of course it is easy to pass judgment.  She was alone, she was prone to anxiety attacks, the woods in that area are nearly impenetrable, and it is not easy to think clearly under such circumstances.  There are currently 23 people listed as missing on the National Parks website, which makes for grim reading.  In several cases the missing person left his or her car at a parking area and began hiking, never to be seen again afterwards.  Searchers are often hampered by not knowing in which direction the missing hiker went.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 42,459,408; # of deaths worldwide: 1,148,687; # of cases U.S.: 8,743,389; # of deaths U.S.:229,273.  Today we experienced an increase of 77,646 new cases, the highest daily increase to date.

Tragedy on a plane flight – Uncertainties of travel – Death of James Randi – Religion without magic – Mall shopping – New games with political motifs – The upcoming debate – Evening statistics

A recent episode shows how uncertain travel has become, especially when using transportation shared by others.  Yesterday a woman died from the COVID virus on a plane flight from Las Vegas to Dallas.  She fell unconscious on the flight and stopped breathing, and all attempts at resuscitation failed.  The autopsy revealed that she was COVID-infected.  She had underlying conditions – morbid obesity and asthma – and recently she had afflicted with shortness of breath, but in all probability she was unaware that she had become infected when she boarded the plane.  She was only 38 years old.  Not only is this story tragic in itself, but all of the other passengers are now in a state of suspense as to whether they might have contracted the virus from her. 

I myself had apprehensions traveling on Tuesday, concerning both the Metro and the flight to Bangor.  The Metro was much less full than it has been in the past, even on late mornings past the rush hour, and everyone wore masks.  The flight, similarly, was less than half full, everyone wore masks, and as the airline provided no food or drink service (there is no need for one, since the flight is about 90 minutes long at the most), no one removed his or her mask at any time.  Still, I’ve been in close proximity in an enclosed space with several people over a sustained period of time.  I plan to get tested to reassure myself that I haven’t become infected.  It seems likely that people will have to take such precautions every time they travel for some time to come.

James Randi died yesterday at 92.  Professional magicians are famously skeptical about anyone who makes claims of possessing supernatural or paranormal powers, but Randi was more active than most, devoting his life to exposing the frauds by which people such as faith healers, astrologers, mind readers, palm readers, tarot card readers, parapsychologists, etc., induced untold numbers of people to part with their money and sometimes with their health as well. 

I’ve never thought of myself as particularly pious, but I am gratified to come from a heritage that made a significant contribution to the world at large:  namely, the concept of a deity who cannot be constrained or conditioned by rites and ceremonies of magic.  The attitude is perhaps best defined by prophet Elijah, laughing at the priests of Baal as they recite their futile charms and incantations, and asking ironically whether Baal is failing to respond because he is out of town at the moment or perhaps taking a nap.  Regrettably, the idea of a deity uncontaminated by magic is one that humanity in general has been very reluctant to accept.  Judaism may have originated the concept, but as time wore on the mystical Gnostic element kept intruding , eventually resulting in the retreat into the Cabala – and a retreat is precisely what it was – and then of course the Hasidic movement made matters worse, blithely ascribing miracles to their favored rebbes and affording them a status that any priest of Baal might envy.  The record of Christianity is no better:  even though Christ himself displayed considerable irritation when people persisted in regarding him as a miracle-monger (see Matthew 16:1-4, for example), the Catholic Church elevates miracles to quasi-divine status – no one can be canonized, for instance, unless evidence of a miracle performed after his or her death is produced – and the Protestant sects have their emotionally overwrought faith-healers.  Nor do secularists do much better; there are legions of non-believers who nonetheless place their faith in astrology, cryptids, Tarot cards, dowsing rods, and who knows what else.  G. K. Chesterton said that they should not be called non-believers but should be labeled as all-believers.  Hardly any group, it seems, can do without some of variety of magic.

And yet how tawdry this impulse is, after all, reducing God to the level of a stage performer!  For those who wish to experience a miracle, I would say:  get outside for a moment and take a look at the variety of leaf colors in autumn or at various plants germinating in the spring; gently touch a baby’s cheek to appreciate its texture, at once soft and firm, like a ripe plum; listen to the chorus of birdsong in the morning; observe a cat walking along the narrow top of fence ten feet high with the ease and confidence we show on treading a sidewalk; go into the kitchen while a loaf of bread is baking and sniff to take in its aroma; plant a seed, a bulb, or a shoot in the earth and watch it transform itself into a flower, or an edible vegetable, or even an entire tree.  These are miracles worth having.  Because they occur every day we take them for granted, but none of our numerous laboratories can even come close to duplicating a single one of them.  This perhaps is the meaning of the verse about the kingdom of heaven belonging to little children:  to very young children almost everything they see and hear and touch is strange and wonderful, and in this attitude they display greater wisdom than their more blasé seniors.

RIP, James Randi.  You will be missed.  People like you are needed.  You may have considered yourself an atheist, but you came far closer to a genuinely religious life than any of the numerous faith healers and self-appointed priests, church-sponsored or secular, whom you helped to debunk.

On a more personal note, I went to the optometrist today to have my eyes dilated for the purposes of inspection for cataract and laser scars as a result of the retina re-attachment operation four years ago.  When it was over she told me not to go outside without sunglasses because the dilation would make my eyes sensitive to the glare of the sun for a few hours.  I had not brought sunglasses with me but I thought:  no problem – the optometrist’s office is within a mall, and surely I can pick up a pair at one of the stores.  And so it was that I discovered at first hand why department stores are going out of business.  The effects of the COVID virus, of course, have been severe upon the retail industry, but department stores have been dwindling in any case.  My present predicament highlighted one reason:  I had quite a difficult time finding what I wanted.  At both Macy’s and Lord & Taylor the sunglasses were placed adjacent to the counters displaying jewelry, and they were every bit as expensive as necklaces.  Had I bought one of them, I would have wound up paying considerably more for a pair without any vision correction than I did for the prescription glasses that I use for reading.  At last I found a selection of quite usable sunglasses at J. C. Penney’s for under $15.  But I’m afraid that in general the typical department store chain at this point is a jack-of-all-trades and master of none.  One can buy better and cheaper products at other stores that specialize in them, and the Internet has made searching for the items with the most affordable prices much easier (including, of course, those that can be ordered by mail).   Already Lord & Taylor’s is closing its doors, and others are certain to follow suit. 

While I was at the mall I amused myself by taking glimpses at a few other stores, although I am not a window shopper in general.  One store specialized in various games, especially in those that appeal to young children.  When I took a look I found, to my surprise, two new games inspired by Donald Trump.  One is a game called “No Trump,” in which each player draws a card in turn.  The card contains four intentionally outrageous quotations, and the player who draws it has to guess which one Trump did not originate.  The player who guesses the greatest number of “no-Trump” quotations wins.  The other operates in a similar manner – that is, of players drawing a card in turns – but in this case the card postulates a certain situation (such as Twitter banning misstatements about the coronavirus, for example) along with three possible reactions from Trump, and the player has to guess which one Trump is most likely to take.  Again, the player with the greatest number of correct guesses wins.  Should Trump be defeated in the upcoming election (as I earnestly hope he will), it will be a great benefit to the country at large, but it must be admitted that our political scene will become significantly less colorful as a result.

The last Presidential debate is scheduled for tonight, and I am bracing myself to watch as much of it as I can stand.  The people running the debate have said that they will cut of the microphone of either candidate who makes an unauthorized interruption..  But I have no doubt that my friend Donald is equal to the occasion.  Surely he can raise his voice and scream and shriek and shout and rant without the benefit of any microphone.  He has been a bit hoarse of late, to be sure; but if he is in need of assistance he should be able to turn to Kimberly Guilfoyle, his Daughter-in-Law Elect, for training in vocal projection.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 41,963,462; # of deaths worldwide: 1,142,085; # of cases U.S.: 8,657,940; # of deaths U.S.: 228,305.  Our figures with respect to the rest of the world have decreased to some extent.  We now account for a little over 20% of the cases worldwide and just under 20% of the deaths.  About 29% of the cases still active are American.  But this (comparative) improvement may not last long; today’s increase of new cases was over 70,000.

The saga of obtaining possession of the car left behind in Maine – The virus’s effects on American driving habits – The COVID virus increasing with renewed vigor, both here and abroad – Evening statistics

I’ve recovered the car at last!  It was something of an adventure, because I had to go to Maine to retrieve it.  Whenever there are many links in a chain of events, there are plenty of opportunities for things to go wrong, and in this case the links were numerous:  taking the Metro to Reagan National Airport, taking the plane from the airport to Bangor, walking from the airport to the bus terminal, taking the bus from Bangor to Medway, and walking from the bus stop in Medway to the hotel where I was staying for the night.   The bus terminal itself was closed, but I was able to pursue the necessary ticket in Medway.  My opinion of the inefficiency of Down-easters generally was intensified by this process; the two cashiers at the Medway stop (which is a gas station) seemed utterly confounded by the process of issuing tickets to the passengers.  To be sure, they were both new at the job, but they had still been there for a couple of weeks at least, and the bus stops there every day; they had adequate time to get used to the procedure by now. 

The walk from the bus stop to the hotel was only about 1/3 mile long, but it is difficult to feel confident walking in the dark to a destination you’ve never seen before.  But all went well.  I reached the hotel without any mishap and it turned out to be plain but comfortable.  I had expected something much worse, because when I made the reservation over the phone, the clerk I spoke with seemed not merely pleased to book a room for me, but incredulous as well.  The hotel is not much used by visitors interested in visiting Baxter State Park, the main attraction of the region, because it is several miles further away from the main park entrance than Millonocket, and most tourists accordingly stay there instead.  But the hotel in Medway was not at all deficient, though certainly not luxurious:  the room was spacious, the bed was comfortable, and both the room and the lobby were very clean.

Then in the morning I left the hotel after sampling what the managers called a “continental” breakfast (merely toast and coffee, but enough to start the day with) to walk four miles to the auto repair shop, where I picked up the car and drove back home – which is easier said than done, because the distance is about 750 miles and I did not arrive at my house until after 8:00 PM. 

A study has shown what anyone who has driven an automobile over the past few months has already known:  namely, that driving habits have altered as a result of the lowered amount of traffic, and not for the better.  The percentage of confirmed collisions occurring at speeds greater than 70 mph increased by 50%, speeding on both side streets and highways has also increased (including driving over 100 mph on highways), and as of June the rate of deaths per 100 million miles driven jumped by 34.4% compared to the previous year.  Not surprisingly, 26% of drivers surveyed reported they would not return to their previous commuting routine once normal activities resumed in their region.

There was plenty of news to listen to on the radio during the drive, and the main news is that the virus is expanding rapidly in North America, Europe, and Asia now that the warm weather is over in the Northern Hemisphere, especially as so many nations have abandoned their lockdown strategies.  There are new centers of a high concentration of virus infections in the Midwest, and in Wisconsin in particular; the massive motorcycle rally in Sturgis two months ago may have played a role in this.  It seems likely that Thanksgiving celebrations in general will be discouraged by officials in various states, because of the risk associated with large gatherings of people.  But the U.S., although it still is in the lead as far as the case count and the death toll are concerned, is far from unique.  The COVID virus is re-asserting itself globally, as a glance at three countries in particular will demonstrate.

The virus has been breaking out with renewed force all over Europe, but the Czech Republic especially has been overwhelmed.  It now has more new COVID cases than any other major country, totaling to nearly 15,000 in the past 24 hours.  In the first 17 days of October, more people have died of the virus than during the previous eight months of the epidemic combined.  Of course, it is not the only afflicted European nation; Belgium has issued a warning about expectations of a “tsunami” of new infections and Ireland has just imposed a new lockdown that is supposed to last six weeks. 

Most of the countries in South America, of course, have long been faring badly, chiefly on account of the sub-par medical systems and the irresponsible attitudes of their leaders – Brazil in particular.  Argentina, however, pursued a rigorous lockdown policy and appeared for several months to have the virus under control.  But in the past week or so the rate of virus infections has spiraled, causing its case count to surpass the 1,000,000 mark (the country with the smallest population to do so).  In the past 24 hours, there have been nearly 13,000 new infections.  Its death toll at present is proportionately just under that of the U. S.  For that matter, of the countries whose death toll in proportion to its population exceeds that of the U.S., no less than five of them – Peru, Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, and Ecuador – are South American, which is saying a great deal for a region with only 13 countries in all.  And the government of Argentina is, understandably, reluctant to impose another lockdown; its economy has suffered greatly as a result and many of its citizens have become impoverished on account of the shrinkage in labor.

The Mideast is another heavily affected region, of which Iran appears to have taken the lead.  It now has well over 500,000 cases and over 30,000 deaths.  These are the official figures; the actual numbers may be considerably higher.  Deputy Health Minister Iraj Harirch recently said Iran’s true death toll was probably twice the official count.  Hospitals in Iran are nearly at full capacity and will have greatly difficulties in absorbing any significant new influx of patients.  Its economy, like Argentina’s has suffered greatly as a result of the virus, and their difficulties have been compounded by the sanctions imposed upon it by the U.S. 

It was very strange to listen to reports of so much distress in various regions of our own country and of many others abroad while driving along highways that for the most part were bordered by woodlands displaying their full autumnal splendor.  The contrast between what I heard on the news and what I saw on the road could hardly be more striking.  Much of the drive went through areas that are all but uninhabited, going through miles of forest uncluttered by urban sprawl, and the scene that unfolded before my eyes for the greater portion of the day appeared quiet, peaceful, and serene. 

Yesterday’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 40,019,315 of deaths worldwide: 1,128,809; # of cases U.S.: 8,516,744; # of deaths U.S.: 226,052.  

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 41,459,816; # of deaths worldwide: 1,135,657; # of cases U.S.: 8,582,588; # of deaths U.S.: 227,369.

Donald Trump (unintentionally) praises Joe Biden – The Satmar congregation’s abortive wedding celebration – The Hasids’ undeserved reputation for tradition – Common traits of fundamentalist religious movements, Christian and Jewish alike – Evening statistics

I hesitate to write any more about Donald Trump when I’ve already urged so much against him.  I want this account to be a blog of life generally as it is while being affected by the ramifications of the COVID virus, not a political diatribe.  There are plenty of those directed at Trump as it is. 

But still . . .

What can he possibly be thinking at times?  In a recent attempt to belittle his opponent he made the dire claim that Biden would “listen to scientists” when making policies to combat the effects of the virus.  It’s as if he’s channeling the spirit of the prophet Balaam, intending to curse but uttering a blessing against his will.  He must know that one of the chief criticisms against him at this point is that he allowed the virus to spin out of control by ignoring the advice of the most prominent immunologists, and now he has tacitly admitted that his critics are correct.  Biden, of course, happily concurred with this statement, not bothering to conceal his delight at the praise his opponent inadvertently bestowed upon him. 

 I have written a great deal about the evangelical Christians, for the most part criticizing them severely, so it is only fair that I direct my attention to another group of fundamentalists:  namely, the Hasidic Jews.  The Satmar congregation had planned a celebration of their rabbi’s grandson that would, if it had gone through, have been attended by 10,000 people.  New York State Health Commissioner Howard Zucker lost no time in signing a Section 16 order barring the event.  Governor Cuomo had issued an executive order earlier this month that limits gatherings in houses of worship in New York City neighborhoods that have seen spikes in Covid-19 cases, including several with large Orthodox Jewish communities.  The order limits gatherings to no more than 25% capacity or a maximum of 10 people in red zone clusters, while those in the orange zone can operate at up to 33% capacity with a maximum of 25 people. Houses of worship in a yellow zone may operate at up to 50% capacity.  Clearly, an event with 10,000 attendees would greatly exceed this limit, no matter how large the house of worship might be.  Amazingly, the organizers backed down.  The Orthodox Jews – in New York, at any rate – have been just as recalcitrant in disregarding such regulations as their fundamentalist Christian counterparts, and as a result the counties in which they are concentrated have a COVID test positivity rate of 5.5%, more than five times the state’s average.

There is a widespread impression that the Hasidic Jews with their long sidelocks and uniform of gabardines are the “real” Jews, the ones with the strongest links to past traditions.  That impression is false:  Hasidic Judaism as we know it today is a recent development.  (In fairness it must be admitted the word “recent” when applied to a people with 3,000 years of recorded history may seem like a fairly long time to some.)  Israel ben Eliezer, the Baal Shem Tov and founder of the Hasidic movement, flourished in the first half of the 18^th century and he probably would have disapproved of some of the developments that occurred after his death – the institution of rabbinic dynasties, for example.  At all events, the Hasids are newcomers in the history of Judaism in the same way that Methodists are newcomers in the history of Christianity – and, interestingly, Israel ben Eliezer and John Wesley are near contemporaries.  It is doubtful that either one of them even heard of the other, but they were both strongly affected by the Romantic movement that was emerging during their lifetimes and incorporated many of the ideas from that movement into their systems of religious belief.  They certainly injected a new vitality into the religious institutions of their day, but they each represent as much a break from tradition as anything else.  Jews in earlier times, for example, did not have a distinctive dress, unless they were compelled to wear one by a hostile state; they probably were somewhat more relaxed about the dietary laws and restrictions on Sabbath activities; and the rabbis among them were expected to be self-supporting..

There is another trait that these religious movements have in common:  in the long run they created more obstacles than avenues to the betterment of the lives of ordinary people.  Initially they offered a vigorous reaction, indeed a rebuke, to the harsh insensitivity of pre-democratic Europe to the needs and claims of the common man.  But their glamorization of ignorance and superstition, their fostering of a tiny priestly upper class at the expense of everyone else in the congregations, and their hostility to developments in scientific advances condemned their followers to a backward, closed-in, marginal existence, frequently mired in impoverished circumstances with no hope of melioration.  We certainly see these trends in the fundamentalist religious movements today.

Having, as I do not doubt, condemned myself to eternal perdition in the eyes of any religious fundamentalist who chances to read this, I move on to the daily statistics as of 8:00 PM:

# of cases worldwide: 40,639,083; # of deaths worldwide: 1,122,932; # of cases U.S.: 8,456,653; # of deaths U.S.: 225,222. 

Returning to the Appalachian Trail in Pennsylvania – The oncoming debate – Evening statistics

I have not visited the section of the Appalachian Trail that runs through Pennsylvania for some time, primarily because I’ve been away on account of the recent trips to Maine and southwestern Virginia.  I decided to get to that area today, starting at Port Clinton.  Originally I intended to go to the Pinnacle and back, about 10 miles each way.  However, the AT from the Pinnacle goes roughly west both northbound and southbound, and I did not realize upon returning that I was on the northbound route until about a mile further.  However, on making inquiries I found that there was a side trail (the Furnace Creek Trail) that runs from one junction with the AT to another, rather like the Ribble Trail that I had done earlier this month.  I thus was able to make a loop that returned me to a point in the trail about 5½ miles from Port Clinton.  An additional advantage is that this route cut off some of the rockier section that I otherwise would have had to backtrack, including a descent from Pulpit Rock.  The route I ended up taking actually was slightly shorter than what I had planned (19 miles total instead of 20).  It had a fair amount of ups and downs, totaling to about 4000 feet of elevation gain, but none of the ascents were very long and there were only a few steep sections.  There were several people on the trail today, but I expected as much – not only on account of the weather (in the mid-sixties most of the day, sunny and clear and dry) and the state of the autumn foliage, but also because there are several campgrounds in the area.  In addition, the Pinnacle is a popular destination and so is Pulpit Rock, another overlook about 2¼ miles west of the Pinnacle itself.

I can thoroughly recommend this section of the trail.  There are some rocky areas and even a couple of boulder fields,, but I never encountered any of the difficulties I experienced on the area further south close to Swatara Gap.  At times the AT gives way to a fire road, so that it has alternating degrees of difficulty throughout and does not become a perpetual struggle to maintain balance.  Pulpit Rock is an enjoyable rock scramble, with lovely views at the top, including one of the Pinnacle to the side.  The rock pile appears to be formed by a glacier; in fact this is not the case, for the southernmost spot the ice flow reached was 45 miles further north on the Pocono Plateau. But the repetitive freeze-thaw cycles occurring a short distance from the glacier itself during the 10,000-year winter caused the ridge-crest rocks to fracture. These rock fragments broke away from the outcrops and slid down the slopes where they accumulated as large masses of talus (rock debris).  I quite enjoyed the ascent but I’m just as well satisfied to have gone back a different way, in the same manner that I did for the ascent from Lehigh Gap.  Rock scrambles of this nature are much more enjoyable going up than going down. 

But the Pinnacle itself is a wonderful sight, easily the most spectacular I’ve seen along the Pennsylvanian AT.  It has something of the scope and range of the views of McAfee Knob in Virginia, so eagerly sought out by professional photographers.  The views at McAfee Knob, of course, are more extensive, surveying numerous distinct mountain ranges, whereas the views from Pinnacle go down directly into Lehigh Valley defined by the surrounding ridges.  Tthe various rural communities at the base provide a vista of fields and farm buildings interspersed with the remains of the forest and with undulating hills that create miniature valleys of their own. 

There now remain 28 miles of the AT in Pennsylvania for me to cover.  Going along this distance there-and-back means, of course, 56 miles total.  I should be able to complete this amount in three long hikes or four hikes somewhat more moderate.  Another trip to a town convenient to the trailheads seems indicated.  I had no problems driving this morning to the trailhead but the drive back was troublesome – lots of traffic along I-270, expanding and contracting like an accordion for miles on end, and in any case the drive was more than three hours each way. 

Yesterday’s entry was very doleful in tone, and I can’t see from the news headlines that matters have changed very much in the course of a day, but it felt reassuring to know that the pleasures of fresh air, forest trails, autumn leaves, and mountain vistas are still within reach.

The third and last presidential debate is scheduled for Thursday.  It seems to me that Trump could borrow a line from Bette Davis’s Margo Channng in All About Eve:   “Fasten your seatbelts, it’s going to be a bumpy night.”

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 40,264,218; # of deaths worldwide: 1,118,167; # of cases U.S.: 8,387,798; # of deaths U.S.: 224,730. 

Autumnal splendor – Women leaving the workplace – Donald Trump’s methods of wooing voters – Trump admitting to the possibility of losing – Savannah Guthrie victrix – Evening statistics

Another lovely day, autumn scenery at its finest.   Everything looked serene today, the mellow October sunlight highlighting the rich assortment of colors from the leaves of maples, sycamores, elms, cherry trees, pear trees, hickories, oaks, birches, beeches – to name some of the bewildering variety of trees in the eastern American forest region, one of the most bio-diverse areas on the planet.  I am reminded of the passage in The Handmaid’s Tale when Offred, languishing in a state of semi-slavery, glances outside at night and notices the new moon:  “a wishing moon, a sliver of ancient rock, a goddess, a wink.  The moon is a stone and the sky is full of deadly hardware, but oh God, how beautiful anyway. “  And so I felt today.  Our country is undergoing continual trial and trouble from the pandemic, the levels of racial tension seem to have reached unprecedented heights, the election threatens to be one of the most violent in our history – but how beautiful it was outside anyway.

Margaret Atwood’s book seems unhappily appropriate at the moment, because one of the effects of the COVID virus has been the reduction of women in the workforce in unprecedented numbers.  With hundreds of thousands of students being forced to obtain their schooling at home and numerous daycare centers going out of business, someone has to supervise the children during the day and that someone is usually the mother of the family.  Sometimes it is possible for a parent to conduct work online, but only about a third of our occupations can be pursued that way.  The others (healthcare, education, factory work, truck driving, cleaning services, utility services, among others) require the worker’s physical presence.  About 865,000 women have dropped out of the workforce, in contrast to 216,000 men.  It’s not only women who will be worse off for this development.  There is a strong correlation between companies hiring women executives and their profitability, resulting in 18% – 69% boosts for the Fortune 500 firms with the best records of promoting women.  It is going to take a long time for our economy to rebound, even after the virus is brought under control. 

Donald Trump certainly has an unusual approach towards attempts at winning people over to him.  When asked whether suburban women no longer liked him, he responded that they should like him because he’s in favor of law and order, and he reinforced this remark as follows:  “So can I ask you to do me a favor? Suburban women, will you please like me?  I saved your damn neighborhood.”  For some inscrutable reason, the suburban women here seem for the most part unmoved by such an appeal.  Perhaps they are more amenable to these tender persuasions in some other neighborhood.

It does appear that he is at last realizing that losing the election is a possibility.  “Could you imagine if I lose?” Trump said Friday evening at a campaign rally in Macon, GA. “My whole life, what am I going to do? I’m going to say, ‘I lost to the worst candidate in the history of politics.’ I’m not going to feel so good. Maybe I’ll have to leave the country. I don’t know.”  If it is any consolation to him, many believe that the distinction of being the worst candidate in the history of politics belongs to him rather than to his opponent.  As far as his leaving the country is concerned, there are two stumbling blocks to this dire threat:  first, he would be hard-pressed to find another country that would accept him (perhaps his buddy Vladimir Putin would take him in?) and second, that he may be somewhat restricted in his movements if he receives a jail sentence after the election for his financial defalcations. 

The NBC network is expressing profound gratitude towards Savannah Guthrie, the moderator of Trump’s town hall yesterday.  Previously NBC was accused, when it agreed to televise his town hall, of rewarding Trump for rejecting the debate commission’s plan to conduct the second debate virtually.  Whatever else might be said about the town hall, presenting Trump with the opportunity to confront Guthrie cannot possibly be described as a “reward.”  The Vox website, among others, said her quick line of questioning, pushbacks, and fact checks “probably made the White House wish they had just done the debate.”

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 39,937,065; # of deaths worldwide: 1,114,183; # of cases U.S.: 8,341,836; # of deaths U.S.: 224,278.  Towards the end of March Dr. Fauci predicted that our country would have between 100,000 and 200,000 deaths as a result of the COVID virus.  In retrospect this forecast seems touchingly modest.  We almost certainly will reach over 300,000 by the end of the year, and to a large extent this is due to the willfully oblivious policies of the administration.

Autumnal splendor – Women leaving the workplace – Donald Trump’s methods of wooing voters – Trump admitting to the possibility of losing – Savannah Guthrie victrix – Evening statistics

Another lovely day, autumn scenery at its finest.   Everything looked serene today, the mellow October sunlight highlighting the rich assortment of colors from the leaves of maples, sycamores, elms, cherry trees, pear trees, hickories, oaks, birches, beeches – to name some of the bewildering variety of trees in the eastern American forest region, one of the most bio-diverse areas on the planet.  I am reminded of the passage in The Handmaid’s Tale when Offred, languishing in a state of semi-slavery, glances outside at night and notices the new moon:  “a wishing moon, a sliver of ancient rock, a goddess, a wink.  The moon is a stone and the sky is full of deadly hardware, but oh God, how beautiful anyway. “  And so I felt today.  Our country is undergoing continual trial and trouble from the pandemic, the levels of racial tension seem to have reached unprecedented heights, the election threatens to be one of the most violent in our history – but how beautiful it was outside anyway.

Margaret Atwood’s book seems unhappily appropriate at the moment, because one of the effects of the COVID virus has been the reduction of women in the workforce in unprecedented numbers.  With hundreds of thousands of students being forced to obtain their schooling at home and numerous daycare centers going out of business, someone has to supervise the children during the day and that someone is usually the mother of the family.  Sometimes it is possible for a parent to conduct work online, but only about a third of our occupations can be pursued that way.  The others (healthcare, education, factory work, truck driving, cleaning services, utility services, among others) require the worker’s physical presence.  About 865,000 women have dropped out of the workforce, in contrast to 216,000 men.  It’s not only women who will be worse off for this development.  There is a strong correlation between companies hiring women executives and their profitability, resulting in 18% – 69% boosts for the Fortune 500 firms with the best records of promoting women.  It is going to take a long time for our economy to rebound, even after the virus is brought under control. 

Donald Trump certainly has an unusual approach towards attempts at winning people over to him.  When asked whether suburban women no longer liked him, he responded that they should like him because he’s in favor of law and order, and he reinforced this remark as follows:  “So can I ask you to do me a favor? Suburban women, will you please like me?  I saved your damn neighborhood.”  For some inscrutable reason, the suburban women here seem for the most part unmoved by such an appeal.  Perhaps they are more amenable to these tender persuasions in some other neighborhood.

It does appear that he is at last realizing that losing the election is a possibility.  “Could you imagine if I lose?” Trump said Friday evening at a campaign rally in Macon, GA. “My whole life, what am I going to do? I’m going to say, ‘I lost to the worst candidate in the history of politics.’ I’m not going to feel so good. Maybe I’ll have to leave the country. I don’t know.”  If it is any consolation to him, many believe that the distinction of being the worst candidate in the history of politics belongs to him rather than to his opponent.  As far as his leaving the country is concerned, there are two stumbling blocks to this dire threat:  first, he would be hard-pressed to find another country that would accept him (perhaps his buddy Vladimir Putin would take him in?) and second, that he may be somewhat restricted in his movements if he receives a jail sentence after the election for his financial defalcations. 

The NBC network is expressing profound gratitude towards Savannah Guthrie, the moderator of Trump’s town hall yesterday.  Previously NBC was accused, when it agreed to televise his town hall, of rewarding Trump for rejecting the debate commission’s plan to conduct the second debate virtually.  Whatever else might be said about the town hall, presenting Trump with the opportunity to confront Guthrie cannot possibly be described as a “reward.”  The Vox website, among others, said her quick line of questioning, pushbacks, and fact checks “probably made the White House wish they had just done the debate.”

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 39,937,065; # of deaths worldwide: 1,114,183; # of cases U.S.: 8,341,836; # of deaths U.S.: 224,278.  Towards the end of March Dr. Fauci predicted that our country would have between 100,000 and 200,000 deaths as a result of the COVID virus.  In retrospect this forecast seems touchingly modest.  We almost certainly will reach over 300,000 by the end of the year, and to a large extent this is due to the willfully oblivious policies of the administration.

Trump and Biden interviewed by AARP – The town halls for Biden and Trump – Evening statistics

I was out much of yesterday, enjoying the fine weather, and did not return home until fairly late.  Little of interest was to be found in the news and it did not appear worthwhile to compose a journal entry for the day.  Either that, or maybe I simply was too tired to write one after walking 20 miles.

This morning I read the latest issue of the AARP magazine, which included interviews with both presidential candidates.  The AARP editor noted that they each responded eagerly to the opportunity to be interviewed and that they treated the interviewers with great respect.  In all fairness Trump did not show to disadvantage in this setting.  He was able to sound fairly reasonable and balanced, at any rate in print.  On the subject of Social Security, for example; he denied that his plan to eliminate the payroll tax would deplete the funds for the program and he outlined methods in which Social Security would still be funded.  The actuaries disagree with him on this point, but that’s a detail.

I mention this, not because, as should be apparent, I wish Trump to succeed, but because I have several friends, ardent partisans of Biden, who continually exclaim about his opponent, “How can anyone vote for a man like this?”  And I’m afraid that when they do so, they are being naïve.  If anyone were to read the AARP interview without listening to him in person and was in ignorance of the headlines that occurred during his administration, he might conclude that Trump is in control of the national situation and is making far-sighted plans for ensuring the comfort and security of the nation’s senior citizens.  Donald Trump can sound plausible when he chooses.  There is nothing surprising in even quite intelligent people being duped by a clever fraud; and Trump can be clever on occasion, though he certainly is very unwise. 

Then, too, however one might feel about his style of delivery on the podium (which to me is about as alluring as a bedizened, obese drag queen), he does project an aura of confidence that Biden does not.  In watching Biden’s town hall last night my impressions of the former vice-president acquired over the past several months were reinforced:  he is earnest, well-intentioned, invariably courteous towards anyone who converses with him, devoid of the bombast that characterizes his opponent; but he is also long-winded and circuitous in his answers, and – as is the case with both of the vice-presidential candidates – he seems incapable of delivering an unequivocal “Yes” or “No.”   One can hardly fault him for not wishing to give hasty, ill-considered responses to the questions posed by the participants, but one wishes that he could speak more forcibly once in a while.  He did speak quite well about Trump’s inadequacies in handling the virus, it is true (not a difficult task), but he hedged on the issue of packing the Supreme Court and I doubt if his response to the question about his by-now notorious remark about African-Americans not supporting him being “ain’t black” brought much reassurance to black voters.

By all accounts, though, he did much better than Trump did when the latter had the effrontery to set up a hastily-arranged town hall meeting of his own at exactly the same time as Biden’s after he called off the second Presidential debate in panic at the prospect at going virtual.  It would appear that Savannah Guthrie, the moderator, was intent on getting a direct answer to the questions she was directed to ask and, to that end, pressed Trump on certain matters in a style to which he is not generally accustomed.  According to the transcripts, she managed to extort from him an admission that he is in debt to the tune over $421,000,000 to his creditors and that he supported a claim (quite baseless, needless to say) by QAnon that Biden arranged to have a Navy Seal team killed.  When he tried to backtrack on this latter issue, the following exchange ensued:

Trump:  That was a retweet!  People can judge for themselves!

Guthrie: “I don’t get that. You’re the president, not someone’s crazy uncle.”

As one might easily predict, Mary Trump was swift to post a tweet of her own shortly afterwards, suggesting that Guthrie could be mistaken on this last point.

If the intellectual level of Trump’s town hall was consistent throughout with this exchange, as I suspect it was, I think that I did well to watch the Biden town hall instead.

In recent weeks Trump has made several blunders like this ill-judged last-minute town hall, some of them so egregious as to lead a few acquaintances of mine to speculate whether he desires to lose the election in reality.  I have heard such a theory in the past, but I believe it to be the result of wishful thinking.  A criminal prosecution almost certainly awaits Trump the moment he ceases to be President, and he will cling onto the position as long as he is capable of doing so.  But such maneuvers on his part make me somewhat more hopeful about the results of the upcoming election.  I believe his flailing about in this manner is a sign that he is becoming more and more despondent about his chances of winning, and that our nation will be free of this incubus at long last.  It is now 18 days to the day of the election (actually 17 days, 13 hours, 3 minutes, and 37 seconds as of writing this sentence to the closing of the last polls in Hawaii; but who’s counting?) and there is not a single poll that shows Trump to be in the lead anywhere in the country.

Yesterday’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 39,150,748; # of deaths worldwide: 1,102,404; # of cases U.S.: 8,214,803; # of deaths U.S.: 222,698.  

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 39,544,938; # of deaths worldwide: 1,108,175; # of cases U.S.: 8,285,824; # of deaths U.S.: 223,612.   Our case count is showing an upward trend again; today’s increase was nearly 70,000.  But the COVID virus is increasing generally, and in Europe in particular; at this point we account for 20% of the deaths from the virus and 30% of the active cases – very greatly out of proportion to our population count, but still somewhat less so that these were a month earlier.

Some American politicians – Trump turns upon Barr – Celebrating a convalescence – Evening statistics

Although the news about the election remains comparatively restrained over the past few days, the activities of various politicians from municipal and judicial branches are not without interest.  Witness the following:

Ethan Berkowitz, the mayor of Anchorage, Alaska, resigned his position after he attempted to break off an illicit relationship with Maria Athens, the anchor at a Fox/ABC combined station in that city.  Ms. Athens took her revenge in a fairly dramatic fashion when he tried to terminate their relationship:  she publicly threatened to report that he had posted nude photos of himself on a website directed at an under-age audience.  Although he vehemently denied her allegations, he resigned a mere four days afterwards. 

In Buffalo, NY, Maria Grisanti was arrested following a dispute with her neighbors in which her shouts and threats were heard the length of the street.  Her husband, Mark Grisanti, came running up to the altercation, shirtless, as the police handcuffed her, shoving one of the officers and violently demanding leniency because he is on intimate terms with the mayor and has a daughter and son-in-law in the police force.  His abusive behavior towards the police resulted in his being handcuffed as well.  Such a display would appear to be typical behavior of a member of what is commonly called “trailer trash.”  But it is not.  Mark Grisanti is a justice of the New York State Supreme Court.

These two stories have their comic aspect but the story concerning South Dakota’s Attorney General Jason Ravnsborg is anything but laughable.  He struck and killed a pedestrian while driving in the middle of the night of September 12^th.  When he realized that he had been in a collision, he called the 911 dispatcher, leading to the following dialog:

Caller: It sure hit me . . .smashed my windshield…

Dispatcher: Oh no. Okay, do you think it was a deer or something?

Caller: I have no idea…

Dispatcher: Okay…

Caller: Yeah . . . It could be . . . I mean…it was right in the roadway . . .

When it was discovered that the “deer” was in reality one Joseph Boever, who died from his injuries, an investigation was duly launched.  This revelation, incidentally, did not occur immediately after the crash but on the following morning, which meant that Boever’s body was lying beside the road for hours.  So far, the investigators are not inspiring much confidence.  Boever’s relatives have questioned how Ravnsborg could have mistaken a man for a deer, especially in a state where collisions with deer are a common hazard of driving on rural highways.  Ravnsborg was tested for alcohol – some fifteen hours after the event, at which point anyone who had been drinking,, even heavily, would not have any detectable alcohol in his system.  In all fairness it must be said that Ravnsborg’s voice was not slurred in the exchange with the dispatcher.  Kristi Noem, the state governor, has promised a transparent investigation; but she has refused to pressure Ravnsborg to take a leave of absence while the investigation is pending.. Boever’s family have expressed displeasure at the extremely slow pace of the investigation; a month has elapsed since the crash and no report has been issued.  In the words of Boever’s cousin Victor Nemec, “I believe this state is going to try to cover this up as much as possible.”

I have mentioned, in an earlier entry, how Jacinda Ardern, Prime Minister of New Zealand, waited patiently at a restaurant amid other patrons waiting for tables to become available and how she declined to receive priority above any of them.  In the same vein, Angela Merkel, of Germany, when asked by a reporter how it happened that she was wearing the same dress that she had donned for an interview with him twelve years earlier, replied that when she ran for office she had done so with the idea of being of service to her countrymen, rather than that of becoming a fashion model.  She also does her own grocery shopping and does not disdain to attend to various household chores.  But the aggressively egalitarian politicians – egalitarian in word, at least – of our happy democratic land have no patience with such antiquated notions from the effete nations of the Old World; the moment they obtain office they look upon themselves as uncrowned kings and would blush at the notion of being subject to the same laws that mere commoners are expected to obey.  Rvansborg, for instance, appears to feel not a twinge of guilt for the man he has killed; he has expressed no remorse, has not taken any leave of office during the investigation, has sent no condolences to the man’s family, and, from the way he described the accident to the emergency 911 team, seems to feel that the entire matter was Joseph Boever’s fault for having gotten in the way of his car.  How could Donald Trump, or anyone in his place for that matter, fail to renege on his taxes?  It would seem that cheating on an extensive scale and snubbing the law are virtual pre-requisites for the position.

Few, admittedly, are as blatant about it as he.  Trump has now announced that he is “not happy” with Attorney General Barr and has hinted that Barr will not serve a second term in that position.  And for what reason?  A very simple one:  Barr has not been able to provide him the support for his allegations of illegality by his political opponents, and time is running out for Trump to fling a spanner into the works of the upcoming election.  The investigation conducted by John Bash, a federal prosecutor handpicked by Barr, to determine whether Obama administration officials had mishandled classified intelligence relating to the Russia concluded that it was all a mare’s nest.  Similarly, John Durham has obstinately stood his ground and has refused to be pressured into delivering before November 3^rd a report that might have given Trump the opportunity to see Biden indicted.  (The operative word in that last sentence is “might”; it is quite possible that Durham will conclude that Biden is not guilty of anything in particular.)  Barr seems likely to follow the fate of so many who have associated with our President:  having abased himself and degraded his office in order to obtain Trump’s favors, he is to be discarded like the rind of an orange after it has been squeezed for its juice.  Why anyone consents to enter the employment of that man – I refer to Trump, of course – remains a mystery.  Surely by this time it must be common knowledge that the net result will be betrayal and abuse. 

I turn with relief from the miry slough of our political scene to something a great deal more pleasant.  Several members of the Vigorous Hikers visited BL today, who has had a difficult struggle over the past several months but who is now recovering very thoroughly, thanks to his powers of resilience.  From his appearance, indeed, I never would have guessed that he had been so ill.  His voice is firm and resonant, his eyes bright, his bearing upright.  He is no longer on dialysis, his chemo treatments have ended, and his hemoglobin count is returning to normal levels. We sat outside on his lawn (well apart from each other, of course) and snacked together and conversed about various matters, including the hikes planned under club auspices for November and December, and also possible hiking trips by sub-groups of various members for the coming year.  It was a lovely afternoon, warm and clear, as we sat on chairs upon a grassplot amid trees with sunlight slanting through their multi-colored leaves.  It is easy to forget, relying on the headlines and social media alone, that placid scenes of companionship like these are still possible amid the turmoil that is continually being reported. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 38,723,557; # of deaths worldwide: 1,096,187; # of cases U.S.: 8,147,358; # of deaths U.S.: 221,807.   While the numbers in the U.S. are not declining, Europe is not doing well either.  The COVID virus is regaining traction there, and in Italy in particular.  Today its case count increased by over 7,300, a record for new infections in a single day.  The total number of new infections for all of Europe is nearly 140,000. 

Activity along the Potomac Heritage Trail – The progressing change in leaf color – George Mason University – Possibility of a Biden landslide – Increasing signs of desperation in Trump’s campaign – Evening statistics

The Potomac Heritage Trail Association held a Zoom meeting today, which I attended.  It was heartening to hear that work on the PHT and on other trails in Fairfax, Arlington, Prince William, and Loudoun counties is being pursued, despite the restrictions imposed by the virus.  We discussed many areas of the trail that need attention, and in particular the segment of the PHT that runs between the Scott Nature Preserve and the junction with the Pimmit Run Trail.  The PHT runs parallel with the Potomac River there, and the river has several creeks draining into it, which sometimes form gorges of significant depth and which in any case have to be crossed.  Since I had completed the McLean loop just a couple of months ago, I was able to supply input about some of the more difficult of these:  Scott Run and Pimmit Run in particular.  Both of these had had rocks set in the streambed to aid people crossing on foot, but recent floods have swept the rocks away and it is now all but impossible to cross these dryshod.  We plan to go on a fact-finding hike in the near future; the date at this point has not yet been set.

After the meeting I went out to enjoy the day.  The dreary weather has passed and the skies are clear again, thereby allowing the foliage to be displayed in full glory.  The leaves are swiftly changing color now, and several of the Japanese maples are beginning to show their characteristic shade between red and orange.  The change in color is occurring somewhat later in the year than usual, on account of the length of this past summer, but now that we have been having a succession of warm days and cool nights, the leaf colors are not dulled, as at one point I feared they would be.  We should be reaching peak coloration in a couple of weeks.

During my walk I visited the George Mason University campus, which is not far from where I live.  It felt strangely deserted.  Normally the campus is swarming with pedestrians, but now many of the classes are being held virtually and the number of students who are physically present has dwindled considerably.  Even though in theory I applaud the decision to ensure the safety of students and teachers alike, the absence of people upon the usually bustling campus had a somewhat depressing effect.

There is not much to report about the upcoming election apart from the usual rhetoric on both sides; but the possibility of a Biden landslide is quietly emerging.  Even in the rural areas that I have recently visited in both Maine and southwestern Virginia I noticed the occasional signs posted for the Biden-Harris slate.  According to the polls, Biden is leading in most of the swing states:  7 points ahead in both Michigan and Pennsylvania, 4 points in Florida, 10 points in Wisconsin, and 8 points in Michigan.  Biden is trying to reinforce that lead by making vigorous attempts to woo the senior citizens; and since Trump declared his intention to raid the Social Security funds not too long ago, this strategy appears promising. 

Nonetheless the Democrats in general are displaying much less complacency than they did under similar circumstances four years ago – quite properly.  Donald Trump is now a desperate man, and desperate man require close monitoring.  He has just filed an emergency request with the Supreme Court to block the release of his tax returns, following a federal appeals court decision issued last week that Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus Vance can enforce a subpoena for his business and tax records.  He claimed before the 2016 election that he would release these returns, but has never done so; it has since been revealed that he paid a bare $750 in taxes during 2016 and 2017.  In short, little beyond his current position in power stands in the way of a criminal prosecution followed by a long, stiff jail sentence.  What maneuvers he will attempt between now and November 3^rd is anyone’s guess; but a wounded boar is among the most dangerous of animals and it is not to be supposed that he will do less than his utmost to disrupt the election, either by fair means or foul.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 38,347,804; # of deaths worldwide: 1,090,179; # of cases U.S.: 8,089,929; # of deaths U.S.: 220,827.  As noted earlier, our case incidence rate is nearly 2.5%, just under 1 in 40 for our population.  The worldwide case incidence rate is just under 0.5%, or about 1 in 200 for the global population.  The average American is thus five times as likely to contract the virus as the average inhabitant worldwide.

Apprehensions among the Democrats – Trump’s support among populist leaders – A day of relative calm – Evening statistics

Despite Biden’s lead in the polls, the Democrats are jittery about the election.  The defeat of Hillary Clinton in 2016 has left not a few psychic scars:  Hillary Clinton was also well ahead of her rival in the polls at this time before the election (by a smaller margin, it is true, but still a substantial one), and she and most of her supporters assumed that she would have no difficulty in defeating him.  For my part, I’d rather find the Democrats overly nervous rather than overly complacent.  My attitude is similar to that of Neera Tanden, president of the Center for American Progress, a liberal think-tank, who says that Trump being re-elected would be a “cataclysmic disaster,” in which sentiment I thoroughly concur. In four short years he has brought down our level of national government to that of a Latin-American country with a caudillo at its head – the only difference being that Trump, who in his youth obtained a draft deferment on account of bone spurs, has no pretensions whatever to military prowess.

“If I told you there was just a 25% chance your house would be bombed tomorrow,” Tanden added, “that wouldn’t be reassuring to you.”

Various national leaders who are dignified with the adjective “populist” – which does not, however, mean even for a moment that they are popular among their countrymen – are, on the other hand, worried about the prospect of Trump being defeated.  Isn’t it reassuring to know that Trump’s administration provides so much sympathy and support to worthies such as Matteo Salvini (Italy), Narendra Modi (India), Viktor Orban (Hungary), and of course everyone’s favorite commissar, Vladimir Putin?

Other than that, today was similar to yesterday:  not very eventful, and not a great deal that was newsworthy.  But the weather has moderated a bit, drizzling more than raining and the skies were somewhat less gloomy to look at – pale and blanched, indeed, but that is preferable to the dark, dingy color of the clouds on the preceding day.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 38,028,430; # of deaths worldwide: 1,085,091; # of cases U.S.: 8,037,193; # of deaths U.S.: 220,010.  We have surpassed the 8,000,000 milestone in our case count today.  It took a mere three weeks for our case count to increase by 1,000,000. 

A day without incident – Speculation about duration of the COVID virus – The saga of Brazil continues – Evening statistics

After the almost perfect weather of the preceding week, today was quite dreary and tomorrow promises to be more of the same – not merely raining, but so overcast that the sky was barely illuminated at all.  The headlines, such as they were, did not report much that is new and altogether it was a fairly uneventful day. 

“This blog of yours might turn out to be a life-time project,” RK remarked to me during our conservation a few days earlier.  I hope that she is not right, but it does seem that I’ve been overly optimistic in entitling my blog the Journal of the Plague Year.  Some epidemics have indeed lasted for about a year:  the Great Plague of London, the Great Plague of Vienna, the Manchurian Plague, the Asian flu epidemic, and so on.  Others have taken longer to run their course, sometimes much longer – the Black Death pandemic, for instance, which lasted for seven years.   It seems likely that the COVID virus will be expanding for some months to come at the very least.  We have completed our season of warm weather; the more comfortable temperatures we are now enjoying will in a few weeks be followed by colder days; and the virus flourishes in colder temperatures and in interior settings, where most of the people will be spending the majority of their time in winter and early spring.  The figure of 2.5% of the population that I mentioned earlier certainly represents an extensive amount of damage, but it falls far short of conferring herd immunity.

Oddly enough, the rate of infection appears to be slowing down in Brazil, where most of the people are no longer observing the rules of social distancing.  Experts fear that it will undergo its second wave of virus infections before the first is under control, but for the moment the majority of the Brazilians seem to be as insouciant in their attitude towards COVID as Jair Bolsonaro himself – whose popularity, incidentally, has reached record approval levels. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 37,732,511; # of deaths worldwide: 1,081,146; # of cases U.S.: 7,991,069; # of deaths U.S.: 219,695. 

Vacationing with friends – Adjusting to COVID – Hiking on the Appalachian Trail – Removal of President Trump from Walter Reed – Ineptitude of school administrators – The Vice-Presidential debate – Mount Katahdin proves deadly – Attempt to kidnap Governor Whitmer – Trump’s attempts to downplay the virus – The Russia investigation – Evening statistics

The week I spent with friends renting a house together and hiking in southwestern Virginia forms quite a contrast to the news I hear from the world at large.  The latter seems to be nothing but turmoil and distress; the former was not only peaceful and full of enjoyment, but almost idyllic.  This trip is the third I’ve taken in three months, all of them for the purposes of outdoor recreation.  I’m not sure whether or not I appear to be similar to the oblivious revelers in Poe’s The Masque of Red Death, dancing and banqueting without seeming to be aware that Death is lurking in the room all the while.  The reader must decide.  To be sure, I do have the example of some highly-placed personnel in our federal government who set the example of determinedly ignoring the virus at all costs – but this is advancing matters.  

The virus certainly impacted our trip in some ways.  Normally when we rent a house some of the guests share rooms if these contain multiple beds.  This time everyone had a separate room.  It meant, of course, that the amount we paid was somewhat more expensive than usual (but the cost of renting a house when divided among eight to twelve people is fairly moderate in any case), and it also meant that our accommodations were more luxurious.  We stayed in a 19^th-century house that had initially served as the parsonage for the village church:  a lovely rambling building, with very spacious bedrooms, two sitting rooms, an extensive porch in the back overlooking fields of the various nearby farms amid a backdrop of mountain ranges whose contours define the valley in which Burke’s Garden is located.  (The valley is an elongated oval and has the appearance of having been formed by volcanic activity, although in actuality it was created by the collapse of several limestone caverns.)  We wore face masks while we were together in the house, except in the privacy of our designated bedrooms and when we were eating.  We sat well apart from one another at meals.  Most of the hikes were either loops or, if they were one-way, involved key swaps (i.e., one group of hikers at either end, with the driver taking somebody else’s car to the start of the hike and driving his own car back).  At no point were there ever more than three people in any single car:  the driver, a passenger in the front, and a passenger in the back.  During the drives all passengers wore face masks. 

It was not, perhaps, the perfect method for protecting ourselves; but it seemed a reasonable compromise under the circumstances.  No one in the group has a job that requires him or her to come in contact with large numbers of people; some (like myself) are retired; interactions with outsiders were minimal.  A few of us went out of the way to get tested beforehand.  Since I had recently been forced to travel by plane upon the return from Maine, I would have taken the test in any case simply to reassure myself that I had not picked up any infection as a result.

The hikes themselves did not stand out in the manner of some of the hikes on my other trips, such as the one going up Katahdin in Maine just a couple of weeks ago.  For the most part there were few or no overlooks.  The most dramatic view we saw occurred on the one day we were not on the Appalachian Trail itself.  But they took place in beautiful woodlands just as the autumnal colors were beginning to display themselves and after all they each involved a fair amount of exercise.  They were, in order:

10/4 – AT, James River Bridge to Sulphur Spring Trail and back, 9.5 miles, 2000’ elevation gain.  I did this hike on my own.  We were not supposed to check in until 4:00.  The drive there is approximately six hours.  However, I wanted to leave early in order to avoid the traffic that tends to pile up on I-81 during the weekends.  Pausing during the drive to take in a hike along the way seemed the best way of filling in the time.  The hike started out at the James River bridge, went over about a mile of flat ground along the river, then it climbed steadily upward but never at any extreme gradient.  The highlight of the hike was the bridge itself, which is the longest bridge on the AT limited to foot traffic only, with extensive views of the river.

10/5 – AT, Rt. 605 to 612, 13 miles (including a brief excursion to a shelter located about 0.3 miles from the trail), 2600’ elevation.  This was a key-swap hike.  I went with RH and MB; the others used the route going in the opposite direction, which has slightly less elevation gain but (as I believe) gave them a somewhat steeper ascent at the beginning of their hike than any climb that we three had.

10/6 – AT, Ribble Trail to Rte. 608, 11 miles, 1750’ elevation.  Another key-swap hike; the three of us had a little more elevation gain than those going in the opposite direction, but only by a margin of 100-200 feet.

10/7 – Hungry Mother State Park, 7.5 miles, 1425’ elevation.  Hungry Mother is named after the possibly apocryphal Molly Marley, a mother who fled from a raid by Native Americans with her child and wandered through the wilderness, eating berries to survive.  Eventually Molly, in her efforts to keep her child alive, collapsed.  Shortly afterwards, a search party found the child, whose only words were pleas to them to help “hungry mother.”  They went to the foot of the mountain where Molly had collapsed, but she was already dead.  Whether the story is true or not, the mountain is now named Molly’s Knob.  The loop we did went up the knob to the summit, which provided a beautiful vista of the lake formed by a river dam at the edge of the park and of the numerous mountains and the gullies that intersperse them.  The park is also of historical interest, being one of the six original CCC parks that opened in June, 1936.  The facilities built by the CCC are still extant and are frequently used by the population in the local counties.

10/8 – AT/Ribble Trail loop, 10.5 miles, 2050’ elevation.  The Ribble Trail has two junctions with the AT.  The junctions are 8 miles from one another, but the AT loops in such a manner that the Ribble Trail that connects them is only 2.5 miles.  We also went down to the Dismal Creek waterfall along the way to the trailhead.  The waterfall is actually very scenic; it is called “dismal” because the area consists mainly of pyrite overlaid by shale; when pyrite decomposes it leaves the soil very acidic and not well-suited for farming.  The surrounding area, by way of contrast, contains very fertile valleys formed on limestone, whose soil is much less acidic.  This hike featured the steepest and longest ascent of the entire trip, at the end of which was a rock outcropping that featured good views of the valley below.

10/9 – AT, Rte. 612 to Rte. 615, 8 miles, 1300’ elevation (RH says that it was actually 1380’, but to me that seems an over-estimate). We wished to do an easier hike on the last day in order to get back to the house early and prepare for travel back home on the following day.  The ascents were very gentle and there was an excellent overlook about halfway through the hike.  We met other section-hikers along the way:  three doing day hikes like us and three going via backpack.

The nearest restaurants were in Tazewell, well over a half-hour each way; and in any case on the trips that AD organizes we cook most of our meals on our own.  The house had an extensive kitchen and it will give an idea of the enthusiasm of the participants when I say that we dined on leftovers for the last two evenings and still had a great amount of food remaining this morning – everyone was eager to contribute to the communal meals and the aggregate of what all of us brought was more than sufficient to feed us. 

While we were enjoying ourselves with getting outdoors, feasting every evening, savoring the weather (which couldn’t have been better – high sixties to low seventies, low humidity, and no rain at all until the day of our departure), and spending the intervals between hiking and food preparation in animated conversation, the news from the outside world was a good deal less tranquil.  Here are some of the highlights of what occurred during my stay away from home:

10/5 – President Trump was taken back from Walter Reed Hospital to the White House.  There was a good deal of speculation about the extent to which he had recovered.  AM, who is a medical professional, said that the virus leaves people depleted for a  minimum of 10 days and that in any case he should quarantine for two weeks in order to avoid infecting others.  Such courtesies, however, are not in Trump’s vein, as subsequent events were to show.

I had a long telephone conversation with RK, my friend who teaches in a private school.  She has managed to obtain a promise from the administrators that she can teach from home and not attend a classroom in order to avoid infection.  (She had some cancerous cells removed several months earlier, which places her, as far as the virus is concerned, in a somewhat higher-risk category than others, such as myself, of comparable age.)  At first the setup she was given went smoothly.  She taught on Zoom, which provided results that were satisfactory to teachers and students alike.  However, the school administrators decided that the students should not have lessons that were entirely virtual, and decreed that they attend the classroom physically on a staggered basis.  Unfortunately, the school does not have sufficient bandwidth to provide every student who attends with a workstation – in fact, the maximum they can afford is two workstations per classroom.  And, of course, the classroom appears as a tiny square barely larger than a postage stamp on RK’s screen when she uses the Zoom application at her home.  She has no way of telling who is speaking whenever a remark from the classroom is made, unless the proctor monitoring the students repeats it for her.  Repeating the students’ remarks is necessary for another reason; the students cannot get close enough to the workstation for their voices to be intelligible, because crowding one another in such a manner would violate the social distancing mandate.  Thus the administrators have taken a perfectly valid process that would have generated relatively trouble-free lessons and have ruined it.  RK says that this year is the worst of her teaching career; the manner in which the administrators have interfered has made it impossible for her to obtain meaningful interaction with her students.

10/7 – We watched the Pence-Harris debate, for a time at any rate.  It certainly was a good deal less of a fiasco than the first Presidential debate.  Mike Pence’s views may not differ from Trump’s to any great degree, but he is much better-mannered and he can be well-spoken at times; in comparison with his superior in command he seems positively eloquent.  Altogether he did not make out a bad case for himself and the administration, at any rate when he went on the offensive.  Defending the policies of the administration, and with respect to the virus in particular, was something else again.  But that was not much of a reflection on Pence personally – the magnitude of such a task would have been too large for anyone.

Kamala Harris, too, showed to advantage in comparison with her associate; unlike Biden, she was invariably calm, self-assured, even regal in bearing, never showing the slightest discomposure when her opponent interrupted her.  She was not sparing in her words when discussing the failures of Trump’s administrator, not only with respect to COVID but in several other matters.  It was heartening to hear her.  Nonetheless, I was a bit disappointed.  She spoke in generalities a good deal and did not bolster her arguments with much in the way of statistics, which were readily obtainable and would have greatly strengthened the points she was trying to make.

It would appear that whenever anyone achieves a certain level of eminence in American politics, the words “Yes” and “No” are banished from his vocabulary.  At any rate, both of the candidates evaded the issues raised by the moderator on numerous occasions.  One example occurred early in the debate when Susan Page asked whether there had been a discussion on either side as to transition of power in case the elected President became disabled – a perfectly reasonable question, in view of the age of both Trump and Biden, and all the more so in view of the fact that a pandemic is raging in our midst.  All that either of the debaters needed to do by way of response would have been an answer like the following:

“Yes, we have discussed the matter.  I am happy to say that the state of President Trump’s/Senator Biden’s health is excellent and that such a possibility is unlikely, but he likes to make contingency plans and we have gone over details as to how to proceed in the event of any crisis that may incapacitate him temporarily or permanently.  I may add that one of the reasons he has selected me as his running mate is that he believes that I can be trusted to carry out the policies that he himself wishes to pursue.”

Or, failing that, the answer could have taken a different tack:

“No, we did not believe that such a discussion was appropriate to hold before the election.  Currently our energies are focused on securing the position.  Should we would win the election, there will of course several matters that have a high priority as we design the strategies to pursue during the course of administration, and one of these is the issue that you have mentioned.”

The responses that both Pence and Harris actually gave would gratified the heart of a Zen Buddhist, bearing as little relation to the original question as the most obscure koan ever devised.  Pence spent his two minutes talking about a question that had occurred earlier in the debate, while Harris indulged in a bit of laudatory auto-biography.  I admit that, had I been in the moderator’s place, I probably would have interjected a remark like the following before going on to the next topic:

“Thank you, Vice-President Pence, Senator Harris.  I may note, in passing, that neither of you gave a direct answer to my question, and I wish to express a hope that you will be somewhat less evasive in your responses to the topics that remain.”

Clearly, my disqualifications for involvement in American politics are legion; my tendency towards direct speech would in itself suffice to render me unsuitable for political office or for a position as spokesman of any description.

10/7 – The case counts on a day-by-day basis will be listed below, but this particular evening is notable as marking Brazil’s case count exceeding 5,000,000.

10/8 – There were several disturbing news items reported this evening.  One of them affected me on a personal level. Donald MacGillis, a Massachusetts journalist, died while attempting to summit Mt. Katahdin.  He had a 50-foot fall and, although he survived the fall, the combination of the injuries he sustained and the exposure he underwent while waiting to be rescued proved in his case to be fatal.  Since I myself have summited this mountain a bare two weeks ago, the news was sufficiently perturbing.  MacGillis was ten years my senior and he had used a different route than I had – but still, he was described as a veteran hiker.  Just a day later, a second hiker lost his life on the mountain as well.  I am somewhat surprised.  Katahdin has its dangers, certainly, but it is by no means the most hazardous peak I have ascended.  Then again, I’m not in a position to judge on the basis of my experience alone.  The Saddle Trail, which is the route I took, is said to be one of the easier ones; in addition, the weather on the day that I went, although windy at the plateau at the top, was otherwise not particularly troublesome.  I have no doubt that it became significantly worse during the two weeks that the season was advancing towards winter.

The FBI foiled an attempt by a white supremacist group to kidnap and then execute Governor Whitmer of Michigan.   The abuse that this unfortunate woman has undergone as a result of her strenuous effects to protect her state’s residents from the COVID virus simply defies belief.  In April, Michigan had the third-highest incidence rate of COVID of any state in the country.  At this point it is well within the bottom third.  The Michiganders do not seem in the least grateful for this reduction in illnesses and deaths; they have consistently led disruptive marches protesting against the restrictions that were instrumental in saving their lives. aided and abetted by the state legislature, which is dominated by Republicans.  And, as noted in previous entries, during these struggles she was thwarted at every turn by the very organization that should have been underpinning her effects to contain the virus, i.e., the federal government.

Speaking of which . . .

President Trump claimed that he felt fine and for that reason he rejected the proposed virtual debate, saying that there was no need for it.  The fact that he should isolate himself even he is no longer in danger in order to protect others is, of course, a trifle beneath anyone’s consideration – beneath his consideration, at any rate. 

One could say, if one were feeling charitable, that he was making a laudable show of resilience in order to encourage others who had contracted the virus and demonstrating the recovery was well within the bounds of possibility.  I am not feeling at all charitable.  Trump seems to have learned nothing from his experience with the virus.  It is clear that it has affected him much more than he is willing to admit, possibly more than he himself is aware of.  His bearing is notably less upright and his voice is hoarse and strained.  He remains a source of infection to others; at least 34 in the White House alone have been infected as well.  But he refuses to alter his campaign plans, is determined to hold rallies where the recommendations for wearing face masks and practice social distancing will be blatantly ignored, and continues to pressure the CDC to relax its guidelines for containing the virus.

This animus against the President was reinforced by a piece of news that emerged the following evening.

10/9 – President Trump requested Attorney General William Barr to indict Joe Biden.  Ostensibly the charge against Biden is that of employing Russian agents to undermine Trump’s campaign.  In reality, of course, Biden’s offense was to have the temerity to run against Trump in the first place.  It should be added that when Trump makes what he calls a “request,” it is impossible for the most obtuse to mistake his meaning.  He forced Robert Redfield, the head of the CDC, to declare that persons without symptoms of the virus should not be tested – over the serious objections of its own scientists; and he defined this ukase as a request, and considered it a very dexterous piece of diplomacy.  He has made another such request to Barr, very much to the consternation of the latter – Barr being, if not especially concerned about political non-interference in the Justice Department, is very solicitous to maintain the appearance of it.   

Amazingly, Barr, who has not inaptly been described as Trump’s toady – and he has, in fact, a rather batrachian appearance – has refused to pressure John Durham, the prosecutor who is leading the investigative inquiry, into producing his report prematurely, even if that means waiting until after November 3^rd, the date of the election.  Durham, by all accounts, is not the sort of man who can be easily pressured.  During his career he has not brought a case against anyone that has not been extremely well-prepared.  And, of course, it is not entirely out of the bounds of possibility that Durham’s report will conclude that the accusations are baseless.  No wonder that Trump is becoming increasingly agitated as the date of the election closes in with no scandal to pin upon his rival.  To be sure, he can always resort to slander if all else fails.  Knowing him, he probably will.

Although words do not fail me when I contemplate this man, prose does, and I am forced to fall back upon the following verse:

Trump’s mind, body, belly, hands, son, daughter, cronies, and all the rest
Are twisted, tainted, flabby, blood-stained, stoned, corrupt, craven, and possessed.

There remain the statistics for the days that have passed, including today’s, once again illustrating how rapidly the virus is increasing:

10/4 – # of cases worldwide: 35,388,157; # of deaths worldwide: 1,041,537; # of cases U.S.: 7,636,185; # of deaths U.S.: 214,609.

10/5 – # of cases worldwide: 35,613,538; # of deaths worldwide: 1,045,849; # of cases U.S.: 7,678,495; # of deaths U.S.: 214,994.

10/6 – # of cases worldwide: 36,038,274; # of deaths worldwide: 1,054,093; # of cases U.S.: 7,727,760; # of deaths U.S.: 215,904.

10/7 – # of cases worldwide: 36,375,798; # of deaths worldwide: 1,059,907; # of cases U.S.: 7,772,795; # of deaths U.S.: 216,781.

10/8 – # of cases worldwide: 36,734,356; # of deaths worldwide: 1,066,337; # of cases U.S.: 7,881,355; # of deaths U.S.: 217,658.

10/9 – # of cases worldwide: 37,089,652; # of deaths worldwide: 1,072,087; # of cases U.S.: 7,892,913; # of deaths U.S.: 218,615.

10/10 – # of cases worldwide: 37,450,065; # of deaths worldwide: 1,077,218; # of cases U.S.: 7,944,862; # of deaths U.S.: 219,281.

Our case rate is just short of 2.5% of the population, meaning that the virus has infected us at a rate of 1 in every 40.  Of the countries whose population exceeds 10 million, only Peru and Chile now have a greater case rate than ours.

The delights of October – The stock market – Unreliability of reports of the President’s health – A searching question – An online memorial service – Evening statistics

If T.S. Eliot is correcting in asserting that April is the cruelest month, October might reasonably claim to be the most benign, at least in the mid-Atlantic states.  The weather is at its best in this area; the stifling heat of the summer has gone; the skies are at their clearest – and since the skies were remarkably free from haze even during the summer this year, they naturally have not become less so now that we are enjoying lower temperatures and less humidity.  The leaves are just barely beginning to change color, having been delayed by the lack of cool nights even during most of September; but a few trees at least are displaying tinges of red and yellow.

Not everyone shares my rosy view of this month, of course:

“October. This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February.”  (Mark Twain, Pudd’nhead Wilson, Ch. XIII)

The stock market has indeed been a-flutter with agitation yesterday and probably will be for some weeks to come.  In addition to the usual fears and doubts about quarterly reports and end-of-fiscal-year reports, the state of the President’s health, along with that of a good portion of the administration generally, has been making speculators wary.  The uncertainty regarding how the President is faring is of a degree that would rouse Kim Jong-Un himself to envy.  The reports from the White House are simply not to be relied upon.  Even on the rare occasions in the past when they have sought to disseminate some amount of truth, no one in the current administration seems to have any idea of fact-checking – witness, for example, the recent risible claim about Amy Barrett being a Rhodes scholar.  In this case, the spokesmen have a vested interest in putting as good a face on the situation as possible, and in all probability would claim that Trump is doing very well even if he were to be on his deathbed. 

“Why do you hate Donald Trump so much?” a friend whose views of Trump are somewhat more favorable than mine recently asked me.

“Well,” I hedged, “I don’t know that I’d call it hatred, exactly.”

He looked at me for a moment and then said, “What would you call it?”

And I was reminded of a certain passage I encountered on re-reading Anthony Trollope’s Framley Parsonage about two weeks ago:

“In her heart of hearts Mrs. Grantly hated Mrs. Proudie – that is, with that sort of hatred one Christian lady allows herself to feel towards another. Of course Mrs. Grantly forgave Mrs. Proudie all her offences, and wished her well, and was at peace with her, in the Christian sense of the word, as with all other women. But under this forbearance and meekness, and perhaps, we may say, wholly unconnected with it, there was certainly a current of antagonistic feeling which, in the ordinary unconsidered language of every day, men and women do call hatred.”  (Anthony Trollope, Framley Parsonage, Ch. XVII)

In all fairness I had to admit that my attitude towards Donald Trump is rather analogous to that of Mrs. Grantly towards Mrs. Proudie, even though I am neither Christian nor a lady.  I don’t want him to suffer, especially, and I have no particular wish for his death as opposed to recovery, but my attitude towards him remains as hostile as ever.  Yes, my right-wing friend certainly had the better of me there.

There is possibly some personal animus involved as well.  This evening I attended a Zoom memorial service for TW, the husband of my mother’s cousin, who was one of the earliest victims of the virus.  It was rather an emotionally draining affair.  I did not know him well, but many friends and relatives spoke of him with lively affection and with several displays of grief.  My cousin in particular was devastated by his death, which was completely unexpected; even at this interval, more than six months afterward, she could not trust herself to speak directly during the service, for fear of breaking down completely.

I can honestly claim, however, that this hostility does not extend to Trump’s relatives.  I have little love for any of them, but I am sorry that Melania has come down with the virus; I hope that the report is correct that a slight cough and headache are the extent of her symptoms; I am glad to hear that Trump’s children all tested negative, particularly 14-year-old Barron; and I am positively relieved to learn that Mike Pence tested negative as well, since it means we will have some sort of guidance in the event that Trump is temporarily incapacitated. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 35,121,850; # of deaths worldwide: 1,037,520; # of cases U.S.: 7,600,420; # of deaths U.S.: 214,273.  In the past two days about 100,000 Americans in addition to Trump have fallen ill with the virus.  With our current mortality rates, that means that between 2,500 and 3,000 will die of the disease from these cases alone.  At this point we have well over 2½ million cases still active, meaning that at least 50,000 more Americans will die from the virus even if we get no other cases from this day forward.  I wish that this could be emphasized more than it is in our media.  Unfortunately, the most likely source for such information, i.e., the Democratic campaign, has abandoned this approach; Biden has decided that the time has come to show solidarity and has suppressed all of his negative ads.  I disagree with this policy.  It should be possible to express sympathy for a man on a personal level and still be critical of the policies he initiated that have led to such a disastrous result.

The coronavirus visits the White House – Overview of the results of Trump’s COVID policies – Biden’s reaction – Minneapolis City Council – The pleasures of autumn weather and scenery – Evening statistics

The Internet is abuzz with the news that Donald and Melania Trump have tested positive for the coronavirus.  They will be in quarantine for 14 days.  I am sorry for her – but with regard to the President himself, I have little sympathy.  His heedlessness during the past several months has been a death sentence to thousands and has been the cause of disabling many more for life, and I am vengeful enough to hope that his infection may have long-term consequences.  It is quite possible that such hopes will be realized, for he does has certain risk factors, chiefly his age and his tendency towards being overweight. He has already developed symptoms that are described as “mild” and has checked into Walter Reed hospital for a few days.  However his illness turns out, he will be prohibited from active campaigning for the next two weeks and will in all likelihood be plagued with fatigue well into November, which is bound to lower his chances of being re-elected.

There is in addition a certain appropriateness to this event, which is the outcome to be expected from his continual disregard of the CDC’s guidelines towards COVID prevention.  Last night he said that “the end of the pandemic is in sight,” only to discover shortly afterwards that Hope Hicks, one of his closest aides, tested positive for the infection, thereby bringing the disease into his innermost circle.  Trump and his aides have consistently ignored the recommendations for social distancing and the wearing of face masks; and during the Presidential debate this past Tuesday he frequently mocked Biden for following them.  Since the President has come in close contact with a large number of people on his staff, they all will have to be monitored (and in all probability quarantined) as well.  “The President takes the health and safety of himself and everyone who works in support of him and the American people very seriously,” White House spokesman Judd Deere said to reporters.  Well, we know that the first part of that statement is true:  he certainly attaches the utmost importance to the health and safety of himself.  Whether he is capable of displaying the smallest degree of solicitude for the health and safety of anyone else is, to say the least, debatable.

If I sound rather callous about the President’s prospects, there are a few consequences to bear in mind about how his policies have affected the country at large.  It is true that our position is slightly better now with respect to other nations that it was previously; but that is not because there is any marked degree of improvement in our own status but because other nations have also been deteriorating.  Our death rate from the virus is now about 2.8%, which is certainly a significant decline from what it was three months ago, but it is still on the high side.  Over 2¼% of our population has been infected already; this figure threatens to be doubled by the end of the year.  We still account for over 20% of the deaths from the virus worldwide and for over 32% of the cases currently active.   The only countries whose population is over 10,000,000 that exceed our incidence rate are Peru, Chile, and Brazil.  By way of contrast, Nigeria – whose population is comparable to ours but otherwise is not a country known for its wealth or its advanced medical system – has an incidence of 284 COVID cases per million of its population and a death rate of 5 per million.  I have noted in previous entries how many leaders in Third World countries such as Malawi, Malaysia, and Vietnam have taken the threat of the virus much more seriously than our government has, and that their efforts to contain the virus have had a great deal more success.  Even an inhabitant of countries such as Mongolia and Cameroon has a better chance of avoiding infection than the average American, and a better chance of surviving the disease if he gets infected.  Such are the results of the manic behavior of a President who has been continually at odds with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention – an agency specifically created to safeguard the health of our citizens – and who has consistently thwarted efforts of the more responsible of our state governors to impose restrictions that offer a chance of containing the virus.

Joe Biden has a more forgiving nature than mine.  With that fundamental decency that characterizes him, he was among the first to send his wishes for Trump’s recovery.  Unfortunately he has started to lessen the pace of his own campaign on that account, taking down all ads that say negative things about his opponent.  I think that that is unwise.  It should be possible to express sympathy for a man on a personal level, and at the same time to remind the public that this very same man is largely responsible for the havoc that the virus is wreaking on our country.

Another set of oblivious politicians have come to regret the consequences of their reckless irresponsibility.  The Minneapolis City Council, after having unanimously voted to defund the city’s police, have now reversed themselves after a surge in carjackings, robberies, assaults and shootings, asking “Where are the police?”  Medaria Arradondo, the police chief, didn’t even bother telling them that their own vote to defund the police was the primary cause of this sorry state of affairs; he merely told them that more than 100 officers have quit or taken leaves of absence, more than twice the usual rate.

Amid all of this upheaval the day was quite placid on a personal level.  The results of my own COVID test that I took on Tuesday came back today, and I tested negative.  I was not seriously worried, but I did want to get some confirmation that I had not exposed myself during my return from Maine via airplane, particularly as I am going to be in a house full of friends this coming week.  In the afternoon I went to my father’s gravesite in Falls Church.  The gravestone was completed recently, so I went there to see it and to take a photo of it that I could distribute to various relatives. 

The gravesite is about 8 miles from my house and the day was so beautiful out that I walked instead of driving there.  The weather is something to savor after the long and sweltering summer.  One is continually reminded, in the suburbs at least, that the area was originally forest and that the areas that have been carved out for setting up our dwellings can readily become forest again after even a short period of neglect.  Trees are the dominant feature of the landscape, even from primary traffic arteries.  The autumnal colors are just beginning here – not as brilliant as those in Maine, of course, but still it seems a providential arrangement that the timing of the leaves’ transformation coincides with the mellowness of the October sunlight, so that the changing hues appear at their most intense saturation. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 34,817,610; # of deaths worldwide: 1,032,709; # of cases U.S.: 7,549,299; # of deaths U.S.: 213,523. Amid all of this concern over the President’s health, I feel bound to point out that over 50,000 other Americans contracted the virus today as well, and that over 850 have died from it.

Optimum weather conditions – Flying from Bangor – The new Supreme Court Justice nominee – Brad Parscale’s adventure – Trump’s self-estimate after the debate – Biden nominated for Nobel Peace Prize – Evening statistics

It is the time of year when the weather is at its best:  not too hot, not too cold, relatively dry, and clear of the haze we usually receive during the summer – although, as I have noted, the haze was much less in evidence these past several months on account of the reduction in car traffic emissions.  It is a promising weather phase for the trip in central Virginia I am taking with several others starting on the 4^th and ending on the 10^th.  The forecast there is for somewhat cooler weather, and it will get cold at nights; but during the day the current prediction is for temperatures in the 60s. 

I omitted to mention that I returned from Maine by means of an airplane flight from Bangor.  The airport is small and not especially crowded, and everyone was very conscientious about wearing masks.  Still, people had to remove their masks during the flight whenever they were eating or drinking.  I therefore decided to get tested for the virus again after my return, and I underwent the test two days ago.  With luck I should be getting the results tomorrow or Saturday.

President Trump has decided that Amy Coney Barrett, a judge whose most salient attribute is her hostility to the Roe vs. Wade decision permitting abortions without government interference, is the person most eligible to replace Ruth Bader-Ginsberg on the Supreme Court.  To that end Kayleigh McEnany, the White House Press Secretary, has announced that, among Barrett’s other qualifications, she is a Rhodes scholar, and so indeed she is – not, to be sure, a recipient of the Rhodes scholarship that is an international postgraduate award for students to study at the University of Oxford, founded to promote leadership marked by public spirit and good character, and to render war impossible by promoting friendship between the great powers, and whose numbers include eight future heads of state and numerous notable names in the fields of law, education, epidemiology, space exploration, and cosmology; but the well-known category of scholar who graduates from Rhodes College in Memphis, Tennessee.  But I can actually feel grateful to McEnany for making such a claim, as it promptly inspired various readers and auditors to make some wonderfully snarky comments on the Web, such as:  “I’ve been to Rhode Island so I, too, am a Rhodes Scholar”; “I did a book report on Dusty Rhodes once. Does that make me a Rhodes Scholar?”; “I was a Rhodes Scholar in that I drove on some roads to grad school”; “One of my favorite poems I sometimes re-read when making difficult decisions is “The Road Not Taken” by Robert Frost. Does that also make me a Rhodes Scholar?”  The Internet is a harsh mistress.

Brad Parscale,  President Trump’s former campaign manager, has stepped down both from the president’s re-election campaign and the management of his digital firm after an apparent suicide attempt.  Parscale was hospitalized after his wife told Fort Lauderdale police that he had guns and he was threatening to harm himself.  Upon arriving at Parscale’s home, the police reported that his speech was slurred as though he were intoxicated and that he seemed to be crying.  They seized 10 firearms in the house in the process of taking him into custody. 

Suicide would appear to be a logical outcome for anyone who has the misfortune to work for Donald Trump.  As one advisor in the White House confided to a friend, who re-confided it to the Vanity Fair magazine, “Trump doesn’t let anyone else speak. He really doesn’t care what you have to say. He demeans people. He talks over them. And everyone around him thinks it’s getting worse.”  According to inside sources, he believes that he has emerged as the winner from the debate earlier this week, and no one has the courage to tell him that the debate was a disaster from the point of view of his campaign. 

One of Trump’s selling points, that of his being nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize, has been neutralized; a member of the British Parliament has nominated Biden as well.  So now our election consists of two candidates who have each been nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize, in a contest that promises to be as belligerent as any this nation has undergone in the course of its entire history.  It is not at all certain that some sort of armed conflict can be prevented if Biden wins the majority vote and the Electoral College vote as well, and Trump refuses to concede. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 34,463,609; # of deaths worldwide: 1,023,659; # of cases U.S.: 7,493,802; # of deaths U.S.: 212,628.