Month: December 2020

End-of-year retrospective – A potential challenge to the Electoral College vote – Ben Sasse bucks the Republican Party trend – A notable dissenter from Brexit – Evening statistics

The year comes to an end today, and no one will be sorry to see it go.  In the middle of July I gave a retrospective glance at the months that passed since I began my journal; the end of a year seems a natural occasion for taking stock again.  The pandemic has been affecting matters for many months now, so that the changes since summer are less dramatic that those that occurred from the first few months since early spring. 

As before, my personal health remains intact.  I have been staying active.  In fact, I have hiked over 2,000 miles this year, the most I have done in any single year up to now. The aggregate elevation gain of my hikes has been close to 300,000 feet.  In addition, I have had relatively little contact with others, so that the chances of infection have been relatively low.  Probably my riskiest activities have been shopping for groceries and, on occasion, other types of stores.  Several friends of mine have been unwilling to undergo the risk of entering an enclosed interior of any kind and have resorted to having groceries delivered instead.  I have not come to that yet.  When I purchase produce I prefer to have a look at it beforehand and to do the selecting myself.  But I am aware that such an activity has its hazards.  At least one person of my acquaintance has contracted the virus by (as far as he can judge) an excursion to a grocery store.  If the state government issues an advisory to avoid shopping in person I will probably refrain, but up to this point I prefer to shop in person.

I lost a few pounds earlier this year, when the days were longer and I often hiked over 20 miles in a day; but most of it has come back again.  The recent spurt of bad weather has restricted my outdoor activities to some extent.  Besides, it’s difficult to refrain from feasting in the holiday season, even when one is isolated from one’s friends.  For New Year’s Eve, for instance, I wanted to have a dinner that was out of the ordinary to mark the occasion; so I purchased a pheasant and consumed some of it for my main course tonight.  Pheasant conjures up images of almost decadent indulgence and for that reason I have been curious to try out a pheasant recipe for some time.  For this night’s dinner I followed all of the appropriate steps:  immersing it in brine for four hours, exposing it to air in order to make the skin crisper during the roasting process, allowing the bird to sit for 15 minutes before carving it.  When all is said and done, however, it is a greatly over-rated bird, not appreciably different in flavor from chicken. 

I now wear a mask out of doors as a matter of course, both while walking in the city and in the more popular regional parks.  Whenever I go out for a drive I have a mask in my car, just in case I need to stop anywhere on the road.  I still am not wearing one on the hikes that take me up steep ascents, but I try to confine myself to routes that are less likely to be crowded. 

Social life remains restricted.  There have been meetings with fellow-hikers on the trails once or twice a week and there have been occasional visits with friends (one or two at a time) on outdoor patios or terraces when the weather permitted such meetings, but nothing more.  And at that, I have been having a whirlwind of social activity in comparison with many others.  Other amusements such as theater performances, concerts, museum visits, etc., remain in abeyance; the last time I enjoyed anything of that kind was in early March. 

I did indulge in travel during the late summer and early autumn, at which time the effects of the COVID virus appeared to be stabilizing.  When I traveled on my own I had no contact with anyone except the hotel receptionists.  On two occasions – the longest trips that I took away from home – I stayed with others in the same house.  All of the trips that I undertook, I need hardly say, were by car only.  The only time I used airplane travel was in returning from Maine because I had to leave my car with an auto repair shop and in going back via Bangor to pick up the car once it was repaired.  In retrospect the trips seem rather imprudent, although I and my fellow-travelers were reasonably careful about avoiding contact with others outside of our own group.  Still, other groups of relatives or friends have done something similar, and their precautions did not prevent them from contracting the virus.  It probably is best to avoid travel now until the vaccine becomes available. 

But I have travel plans for 2021 – fairly tentative at this point.  Still, I am scheduled to go with one group to Ireland in late May and with another to King’s Canyon in June.  It will be interesting to see what airline travel will be like then.  I will also try to travel a little on my own.  Since I have completed the portion of the Appalachian Trail that runs through Pennsylvania, moving on to the segment in New Jersey seems like a logical sequel.  In fact, I have covered a little of it already (from Delaware Water Gap to the Mohican Visitor Center).  There are slightly over 60 miles that remain:  a distance that could be traversed within a week, especially if I resort to shuttle services.  New York contains slightly under 90 miles of the Appalachian Trail, and it may be feasible to go over that distance as well.  I have already covered the 50-odd miles in Connecticut; if I complete the AT in New Jersey and New York, there will remain four additional states to tackle, as well as about 60 miles in North Carolina and 100 miles in Virginia:  Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine.  I have done a few miles in New Hampshire and over 70 miles in Maine, but there remains plenty to target in subsequent years. 

Initially we had many shortages during the early months of the pandemic.  These have all been redressed for several months now.  Somehow or other deliveries have resumed their normal schedule and, if the fruit, vegetables, fish, and meat that I routinely see stocked in various food stores provide any indication, our farms are as productive as ever.  Construction, also, goes on at its usual pace.  There are a number of new shopping centers and apartment buildings springing up in several areas just a few miles from my house.  Road construction is ubiquitous in the area.  Crews are working on adding HOV toll lanes for I-66 and on extending the Metro.   Phase 2 of the Silver Line is now tentatively scheduled for completion in this coming July, while six of the Purple Line stations are planned to be operative towards the end of 2022. 

When I wrote my four-month perspective in mid-July I said that our nation would be fortunate if the death toll did not exceed 250,000 by the end of the year.  At that time such a prediction seemed somewhat exaggerated.  Few anticipated the acceleration that occurred in November and December, which has caused our death toll to exceed 350,000.  Christmas and New Year’s celebrations will probably cause more of a spike by mid-January.  Yet the mood is more hopeful now, on account of the vaccines.  It is possible that we will turn the corner by the end of February and see some diminution in the spread of the COVID virus. 

As the year closes we are receiving a parting gift from Trump and his allies.  Senator Josh Hawley of Missouri has announced that he will be joining with Mo Brooks to challenge the Electoral College votes on January 6^th.  It would have been impossible to issue such a challenge from the House of Representatives alone; the support of at least one senator is required.  Now it seems likely that the challenge will go through, and as a result the nation will have to spend next week in a state of wearing suspense as to whether the election results will be properly ratified.  Such a challenge has little chance of succeeding, because the support of both chambers is required, and the Democrats have a majority among the Representatives.  But this development means that the ratification could conceivably be delayed.  It is of primary importance that the transition of administration goes smoothly, particularly while we are in the middle of a pandemic.  Of course one would not expect such considerations to make any impression on Donald Trump, but I am continually surprised by the amount of corruption and sedition he has infused into the Republican Party.  So great is his influence that he has induced them to behave in a manner not only contrary to the interests of the nation at large, but, even more remarkably, to their own self-interest.  They must be aware that in pursuing such a course they are earning the opprobrium of all but the most die-hard members of the Trump cult, and yet they continue to aid and abet Trump in his petulant denials of the obvious.

At least one dissentient voice has been heard.  Senator Ben Sasse of Nebraska has denounced this effort, describing the legislators who plan to spearhead the disruption of the certification as “institutional arsonist members of Congress.”   “When we talk in private,” he added, “I haven’t heard a single congressional Republican allege that the election results were fraudulent – not one. Instead, I hear them talk about their worries about how they will ‘look’ to President Trump’s most ardent supporters.”

The United Kingdom’s divorce from the EU comes into effect tonight, crowning the efforts of Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who has championed the cause for Brexit since the agitation to bring it about began.  There is at least one British citizen, however, who has decided that Brexit is such a deplorable idea that it is best to apply for a French passport under the circumstances:  Stanley Johnson, the Prime Minister’s father. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  83,769,807; # of deaths worldwide: 1,824,373; # of cases U.S.: 20,202,545; # of deaths; U.S.: 353,872. 

Hiking in Rock Creek Park – The pleasure of seeing old friends again – Mansfield Park – Dawn Wells – Evening statistics

I was able to see AD and EB today, after not having met them for at least ten months.  I hiked with AD in Rock Creek Park, a loop starting from the Nature Center, and taking the Valley Trail to Boundary Bridge and the Western Ridge Trail back to the Center.  This park extends 12 miles from the border with Maryland to the Cleveland Park area and – considering that it occupies the middle of the city – offers a variety of hike routes, a few of them having a level of difficulty that is slightly surprising.  I have done loops in the park that attain well over 2000 feet of elevation gain.  Today’s hike was less strenuous but it was still over 6 miles and probably about 1000 feet of elevation gain in all.  The ascents are fairly short for the most part but they are numerous and they add up after a certain distance.  It was another beautiful day, clear and dry; temperatures were in the low-to-mid 40s, very comfortable for hiking.

Afterwards I went to my friends’ house in downtown DC and we ate lunch on their terrace outside.  I have known them for several years, and I have missed their company greatly, so I was very glad to see them again.  We talked together about many topics, of course, including the virus.  AD and EB are both retired from the medical profession, so they are much more knowledgeable about it than I am.  They have participated in a vaccine test program, but they will not find out until mid-to-late February whether they received an actual vaccine or a placebo.  It is more important than ever, as EB observed, to be cautious in matters such as mask-wearing and social distancing.  If we as a nation can get through the next two months without undue mishaps, the vaccines will eventually be able to bring the COVID virus within containable limits.

We touched upon other matters as well, including the works of Jane Austen.  EB had recently finished re-reading Mansfield Park and was curious about my opinion of it.

Mansfield Park is the work that divides the opinions of Austen’s admirers the most – understandably, since it contains some of her best writing and also some of her worst (although even the worst of Jane Austen is far superior to the writings of many other authors).  The defects of the work are, to my mind: 

1. The attempts to make Fanny sympathetic via her supposed appreciation of Nature are not successful.  Her comments about evergreens, for example:   “When one thinks of it, the astonishing variety of nature! – in some countries we know the tree that sheds its leaf is the variety, but that does not make it less amazing, that the same soil and the same sun should nurture plants differing in the first rule and law of their existence” – it simply doesn’t work;  no nature-lover talks like that.  For a convincing description of how the contemplation of Nature affects people, one must go to Wordsworth.
2. The private theatricals are burdened with a symbolic weight that they are too frail to support.  Austen certainly does a brilliant job at describing the various little squabbles and undercurrents of ill-feeling that emerge from the efforts of the Bertram family to perform a play, but it is impossible to agree with either Edmund and Fanny that acting in private is of itself inherently objectionable .  The most balanced reaction to the project comes from Sir Thomas.  When he arrives back home from Antigua and learns that his children have been attempting to do some amateur acting in his absence, he is not particularly concerned.  It’s only when he discovers that they’ve trashed one of the rooms in his house to set up a stage that he shows his displeasure.
3. When Edmund, disappointed in the collapse of his engagement to Mary Crawford, turns to Fanny instead, I can’t believe it, and I don’t think that Austen does either.  Throughout the novel Edmund has been treating Fanny with that mixture of affection and condescension that an elder brother normally shows to a younger sister, and he has been doing so with such consistency that it is difficult to believe that she is transformed to his love interest at the end.  Austen herself seems to have similar doubts:  “I purposely abstain from dates on this occasion, that everyone may be at liberty to fix their own, aware that the cure of unconquerable passions, and the transfer of unchanging attachments, must vary much as to time in different people.  I only entreat everybody to believe that exactly at the time when it was quite natural that it should be so, and not a week earlier, Edmund did cease to care about Miss Crawford, and become as anxious to marry Fanny as Fanny herself could desire.”  It’s a pretty flat and perfunctory description, especially in contrast with extended conversations in penultimate chapters of the other novels in which the hero and heroine come to an understanding.

On the other hand, the novel has so many excellences that it is impossible to enumerate them all.  Some of them are justly famous:  for instance, the portrayal of Mrs. Norris, one of the most convincingly odious women in fiction, the coruscating wit and vivacity of the two Crawford siblings, the descriptions of the chaotic household of the Prices in Portsmouth.  The chapters centered around the visit to Sotherton, with so many plot threads artfully woven together, have a Mozartean combination of grace and depth.  I find, also, that Fanny grows upon me the more often I re-read the novel.  At times, I admit, she is infuriatingly passive, but a careful reading shows that she is not at all weak-willed.  It is not merely that she resists the pressure put upon her to marry Crawford but that she displays a decided strength of character in her consistent rejection of the role of guardian angel.  Edmund and Mary make no secret of their belief that she is ideally suited for the task, and Henry at one point tries to flatter her on this point by saying “When you give me your opinion, I always know what is right.  Your judgment is my rule of right.”  But she will have none of it:  “Oh, no! – do not say so.  We have all a better guide in ourselves, if we would attend to it, than any other person can be.”

Edmund, again, is a splendid study of a young man of almost painful forthrightness.  In the early stages of their acquaintance Mary Crawford accuses him of being influenced in choosing the church as his profession by the fact that there is a living available for him once he is ordained.  Fanny immediately leaps to his defense – “that I am sure it has not,” she cries; but Edmund himself is resolutely honest about his motives.  He does not pretend to have an overwhelming vocation for a religious life but is quite businesslike about the matter.  There is “no natural disinclination to overcome” and the fact that he knows in advance that he will earn enough to live on by becoming a clergyman has exercised its due influence; just as, say, a college student today might choose to major in engineering because he knows that the company for which he has been an intern will offer him a job once he gets his degree.  Who can say that Edmund is not in the right and that he will not fulfill the responsibilities of his position just as well as the most fervent of devotees?  In the discussion that follows he defends his profession against Mary’s disparagement calmly and reasonably, never making any show of outraged morality, and it cannot be said that she has the better of the argument. 

Edmund has the misfortune to become infatuated with a woman who cannot in the least understand his efforts to do something worthwhile.  For a long time he tries to shut his eyes to Mary’s contempt for the clergy but in the dialog between Edmund and Fanny that occurs just before the ball in Fanny’s honor he breaks out during one of the most emotionally intense scenes in Austen’s oeuvre.  He has been upset by Mary’s continued ridicule of his line of work and he seizes upon Fanny as his confidante:  “Let me talk to you a little.  You are a kind, kind listener.”   And immediately after this plea for a sympathetic hearing comes the heartbreaking cry, “I have been pained by her manner this morning, and cannot get the better of it.”  It has sometimes been said as a criticism of Jane Austen that her male characters are observed only from the outside – which is true; but they are very minutely observed.

And then there is the characterization of Sir Thomas, possibly one of the most subversive portrayals of a family patriarch ever written:  a genuinely kind-hearted and benevolent man, always attentive to his wife’s comforts, earnestly solicitous about the welfare of his sons and daughters, providing for his wife’s poor relations to the greatest extent in his power, who nonetheless by his rigid morality, his reserved manner that “repressed all the flow of their spirits,” and his “most untoward gravity of deportment” – almost the first aspect of him that Fanny notices when she is brought into the family – he alienates his children and winds up doing them a great deal of harm, contrary to his intentions.  Adaptations of the novel invariably go wrong by reducing him to an ill-tempered tyrant or a lecherous hypocrite.  Targets such as these are easy enough to hit.  When Jane Austen goes hunting, she is out for bigger game. 

As can be seen, we delved into the matter a good deal; it was very enjoyable indeed to discuss such matters after many months of social interaction that has, on account of the virus, become increasingly limited and sporadic.  But our discussion was not entirely literary.  We spoke about AD’s recent additions to his collection of Turkish and Persian carpets (he is something of an expert of the subject and has given lectures at the Textile Museum) and various episodes in European history and AD’s and EB’s impressions of life on the kibbutzim during a visit to Israel.  Our conversation was diverted, at one point, by the appearance of a red-bellied woodpecker at one of the bird-feeders in their neighbor’s yard. 

Two hours flew by in this fashion and then I returned home, where I learned, upon scanning the headlines, more sad stories have come about as a result of the pandemic, of which a handful have already been noted in this journal.  One in particular caught my attention:  Sarah Simental, of Tinley Park, IL, contracted the COVID virus on December 23th.  Her condition worsened rapidly and she was airlifted to the University of Chicago hospital, but to no avail:  she died three days later.  She was only 18 years old and, until she fell ill with the virus, was the picture of health.  The virus chiefly affects the elderly but other age groups are by no means immune.

Another victim of the virus today was Dawn Wells, familiar to members of my generation as Mary Ann of Gilligan’s Island.  She was 82 years old and thus cannot be said to have had her life cut short, but her passing is saddening nonetheless.  I met her once at a Nostalgia Convention, and she proved to be every bit as pleasant and approachable as the character she portrayed in the series.  I remarked to her that in the “Mary Ann vs. Ginger” debate that occurred among the men of my generation during its adolescence I was a firm partisan of the Mary Ann camp – which pleased her, as I believe.  Her last years were not easy.  She took a fall in 2018 and she had difficulty paying for the subsequent two months of hospital rehabilitation.  Eventually various fans raised money for her via a GoFundMe page to help her out.  “I don’t know how this happened,” she said afterwards in an interview. “I thought I was taking all the proper steps to ensure my golden years. Now, here I am, no family, no husband, no kids and no money.”

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  83,030,872; # of deaths worldwide: 1,810,610; # of cases U.S.: 20,202,545; # of deaths; U.S.: 350,429.  The past two or three days were seeing a downward trend, but that has been overturned today with a vengeance.  The number of new infections was over 220,000 and the death toll was over 3,500. 

The Arlington Triangle Loop hike – Plans for the future – The vaccines beginning to make an impact – Mike Pence’s dilemma – Evening statistics

I met with the Vigorous Hikers to hike the Arlington Triangle loop, which we generally do at this time of year.  The hike starts from Bluemont Park close to Seven Corners, and takes the Four-Mile Run Trail and the Mount Vernon Trail to Roosevelt Island.  After the hikers have lunch the hike continues with a circuit around the island and then goes through Arlington to the Custis Trail, eventually returning to Bluemont.  It is about 18½ miles, with not much elevation gain – 600 or 700 feet at the most.  It is a good hike to do at this time of year.  The trailhead is very conveniently located for most of the club members – less than a 30-minute drive in my case – and traffic between Christmas and New Year’s tends to be relatively light, so that starting a hike whose trailhead is within the Beltway poses fewer issues during this particular week than at other times.  It also means that one can return home quite early:  we started at 8:30, and I completed the hike and was back at my house before 3:00.  It is not what might be called a spectacular hike, but it is very pleasant to go along the Potomac River, and to contemplate the Virginia river bank and the cityscape of DC across the river. 

The weather was lovely:  beautifully clear and, although the temperature was in the low 40s, it felt comfortably warm in the continual sunlight.  During the hike we conversed together, mainly about plans for the future.  Travel, of course, was a popular topic.  Everyone had plans for trips either abroad or in other parts of the U.S. to make up for lost time.  And other events were mentioned as well.  “I want to have as many large parties as I can organize once this is over,” one hiker said, and another opined that once the virus recedes the prevailing mood will be something like that of the Roaring Twenties.  Already vaccinations have been disseminated among some of them or their near relations.  I myself learned that my cousin’s wife, who is a nurse, received her vaccine today.  One group member, a surgeon, got his recently, and he advises taking Aleve or Tylenol just before receiving the vaccine, because the arm that receives the injection becomes sore afterwards.  Our group has been affected by the virus; one group member was unable to join us because he came down with it.  His symptoms are mild, but he is isolating himself to protect others. 

An impartial observer might, perhaps, be inclined to think us premature in making plans for the future so optimistically.  The national rate of infection is now over 6% of the population.  We will probably have over 20,000,000 total cases (along with over 350,000 deaths) by the end of the year, which takes place just two days from now.  It will take some time for the COVID virus to recede under those circumstances, even with the assistance of vaccines.  But, like my companions, I believe that a hopeful attitude is a better way to cope with the demands of the situation created by the pandemic than a despairing one.

Mike Pence is currently on the receiving end of a bizarre lawsuit by Louie Gohmert, a representative from Texas, which is demanding that he overturn the Electoral College votes next week.  Pence, of course, does not have the slightest authority to make such an attempt, even if he wanted to – and he almost certainly doesn’t.  Having had to endure being Donald Trump’s associate for the better part of four years and forced to act as an unwilling co-conspirator in many of Trump’s more outlandish maneuvers, he is in all probability as eager to be rid of our current President as the most rabidly left-wing Democrat could wish.  The vice-president’s role in the counting of the votes is a purely ceremonial one; he is not even required to be present, as the function he performs during that process could easily be assigned to a number of alternate officials.  Pence has striven over the past years to smooth over Trump’s blunders and to provide the administration with at least a patina of normality, all in the hope of becoming a Presidential candidate himself in 2024.  He has tried to remain discreetly in the background as long as he can, but now he is becoming the center of attention, and not in the way that he desires.  It is difficult to be sorry for him, however.  He is a much more reasonable man than his superior; he has never aroused the visceral loathing that Trump inspires, even among those who disagree with his political stances.  But the situation in which he now finds himself is largely of his own making.  Like the parents of an incurably spoiled child, he has given in to every single one of Trump’s whims in the hopes that such appeasement will make the latter behave more reasonably, and he is now belatedly discovering how very much mistaken such this policy has been.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  82,288,620; # of deaths worldwide: 1,795,111; # of cases U.S.: 19,959,864; # of deaths; U.S.: 346,464. 

Journalists arrested in China and Saudi Arabia – The depressed status of New Orleans – The loss of White’s Ferry – Burke Lake and Lake Mercer – Evening statistics

One has to put things into perspective, I suppose.  I greatly dislike our current administration, as I’ve emphasized many times in previous entries.  Still, it does observe certain limits, as can be seen from recent events in China and Saudi Arabia.  Zhang Zhan, a journalist who reported early about the virus breaking out in Wuhan, has just been sentenced to four years in prison after being accused of spreading false information, giving interviews to foreign media, disrupting public order, and having “maliciously manipulated” the outbreak.  She was arrested in May and she went on a hunger strike following her arrest while awaiting her trial; her captors responded by inserting a tube in her mouth to forcibly feed her and tying her hands 24 hours a day to restrain her from removing the tube.  She is in poor health and is said to be declining rapidly as a result of such treatment – quite the penalty, one would say, for reporting openly about the beginnings of a pandemic, but one which the Chinese government has not the slightest hesitation in exacting.  Loujain al-Hathloul, a leader in the movement to allow women to drive automobiles in Saudi Arabia (they were finally allowed to do so in 2018), has been sentenced for nearly six years in prison for attempting to “destabilize the kingdom.”  She had been detained for interrogation already, before the trial started.  After the trial was held – i.e., 2½ years later – the judges held out the possibility that the amount of time she has already served will count as part of the time she is to spend in prison and it is also possible that part of the time to serve will be suspended.  The fact remains that she has been imprisoned, as well as tortured under the interrogation proceedings, for having the temerity to suggest that women be allowed to drive on their own. 

We are not muzzled to anything approaching a similar extent.  In this very journal, for instance, I have made some remarks about Donald Trump that his supporters might consider rather disrespectful (although personally I feel that I have treated him with all of the politeness that he deserves), without any fear of reprisal.   In the unlikely event that this journal were to be brought to his attention, he probably would be irritated, but I doubt that he would do much about it.  If he went about arresting everyone who criticized or mocked him online, nearly half of the nation would be in prison. 

I heard from a friend who lives in Louisiana, and he has given me a very discouraging account of the current situation prevailing in New Orleans.  Its finances are at a very low ebb.  The chief industry of the city is tourism, which for obvious reasons has suffered greatly over the past several months.  Many of the festivities for the upcoming Mardi Gras have been canceled, including the famous parades.   The bars will be open, but they will be subject to whatever COVID-related restrictions are prevailing at the time.  By mid-February (Mardi Gras falls on February 16^th this year) there should be some improvement as the vaccines start making an effect, but it is doubtful that the restrictions on social gatherings (no more than 100 people indoors and 150 outdoors) will be lifted by then.

White’s Ferry has closed operation following a legal dispute.  It has been in operation since 1782, transporting cars over the Potomac between Montgomery County and Loudoun County; but there is no record of the creation of a public landing on the Virginia shore.  The ferry operated under a contract with a private landowner of the Rockland property.  This agreement stipulated that no additional construction was permitted at the Virginia landing without the landowner’s permission.  In 2004, the ferry operators built a new concrete retaining wall to replace a wooden structure damaged by high water following a hurricane.  The property owners contended that this alteration greatly expanded the size of the landing and was in violation of the contract.  The judge ruled in their favor and awarded damages to the property owners.  At this point the group running the ferry announced that they would no longer operate it.  Their decision caught everyone by surprise – including the property owners, who have been roundly denounced on social media and who have protested that they never desired such an outcome.  Some good may come out of this debacle in the long run, for it highlights the need for a bridge between Cabin John and Rte. 15 (they are about 40 miles apart and there is no bridge between them), but in the meantime the commuters who depend on the ferry for crossing the river will be forced to use the over-burdened Rte. 15 bridge instead. 

As if in mockery of these depressing developments, the weather today has been unusually fine, not only sunny but quite warm for this time of year, just touching upon 60 degrees; when I was out I had to take my jacket off at one point.  I used my old standby hike of Burke Lake/Lake Mercer, since the drive to the trailhead is less than 15 minutes.  I was not the only one who had this idea; the parking area adjoining Burke Lake was full and I was forced to use the larger parking area near the amphitheater instead.  Many herons and loons were avidly scanning the water for fish.  Dog owners have become more cautious in recent months as a result of the warnings about social distancing; they are more ready to pull dogs out of the way and to retract leashes when another pedestrian approaches, and generally behaving – by the standards of the typical American dog-owner – rather reasonably on the whole.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  81,653,988; # of deaths worldwide: 1,780,865; # of cases U.S.: 19,774,304; # of deaths; U.S.: 343,087. 

Messages from friends – Relatively low rate of COVID infections within my immediate circle – Brexit transition coming to an end – Evening statistics

The Christmas cards I’ve received from various friends have a strange pathos this year.  There are stories of disappointments that have come about as a direct consequence of the virus-related restrictions:  travel that had to be canceled, reunions with friends and relatives that had to be postponed to a date as yet indeterminate.  There are stories of difficult periods aggravated by the strain that our medical system is undergoing:  surgeries that took required more trouble to schedule than would have been the case under normal circumstances, illnesses that required staying in hospitals for a few days at a time when hospitals were more crowded than usual.  There have been significant birthdays and anniversaries whose celebrations had to be placed on hold (my aunt’s 90^th birthday, which I have referred to before, is one example).  And there is what might be called a running theme through the majority of them:  the strain of the isolation over so many months, the sentiment of “we’ve missed you” from friends I have not been able to see for nearly a year.

There are messages of hope as well.  Some have managed to travel a bit, even if the travel was not what they had originally planned.  My friends are staying reasonably active and keeping their minds busy as well.  There are assurances from various quarters of getting together again once the concerns over the COVID virus have faded; and with the vaccines now having begun distribution, such a hope seems attainable for the coming year. 

The number of friends who have actually contracted the virus is mercifully limited.  One tested positive during the past autumn, but had no symptoms and appears to be undergoing no long-term effects.  Another fell ill with COVID in early April and it took him some weeks to recover, but he is in good health now.  Yet another, who is a health-care professional, tested positive but her symptoms were minimal and disappeared relatively quickly.  My relatives who contracted the virus during the spring have long since recovered.  It would appear that I’m in a social stratum that is significantly healthier than the national average, since the current level of infection in the country is 5.9%, or about 1 in every 17.  Perhaps that is not surprising when so many of my friends have made considerable effort to remain active and vigorous.  Even during the times of the restrictions many of us have managed to get out and to take to the trails.  But much of this is also luck.  As I (and others) have had frequent occasion to remark, many otherwise healthy people have contracted the disease. 

The details of the Brexit deal have been worked out.  The U.K. left the EU on January 31^st, but the transition period is scheduled to last for eleven months, ending on December 31^st.  When the British voted in favor of Brexit, I was not unduly surprised.  I won’t go so far as to say that I predicted it, but I had heard many complaints during my visits to the U.K. about the EU – chiefly about the extravagant amount of red tape it imposed on almost every walk of life.  I personally believe that exiting the EU is a mistake and that the British will have reason to regret this decision in the years to come, but I can understand how it came about.  They will be paying a high price for their withdrawal from the Union: doctors, nurses, architects, dentists, pharmacists, vets, engineers, etc., no longer will have automatic recognition but must apply for it in any EU country in which they work; U.K. nationals no longer have the freedom to work, study, start a business or live in the EU, and visas will be required for stays over 90 days; British business travelers and posted workers – those that stay in the EU to work for a limited period of time – face fines unless they get advance authorization.  How the U.K. will fare once the transition period ends is a source of lively speculation.  Presumably the British hope to exercise global influence in their position of “splendid isolation” (to use one commentator’s phrase) but my belief is that their economy will become less important on the global scale and shrink from year to year, until the U.K. either is forced to petition to rejoin the EU or resign itself to becoming a backwater.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  81,126,414 ; # of deaths worldwide: 1,771,407; # of cases U.S.: 19,567,784; # of deaths; U.S.: 341,138.  There are decidedly fewer cases and deaths today, well below the daily averages we’ve been having for the last several weeks.  It appears that this lull is only temporary; Dr. Fauci has issued a warning today that the worst is yet to come.

Birds in flight – Face masks in cold weather – Apprehensions of the effects of holiday festivities – Ban on travel to Japan – The plight of the African nations – Evening statistics

Many birds were flying about today, just as they were yesterday.  For several days they appeared to be relatively inactive but now they are flying about busily, for the most part searching for food.  I recently discovered that a flock of starlings (the species I have been seeing most frequently in recent days) is called a murmuration, which seems like a perfect name; they are very vociferous birds. 

Almost every day this week has been cloudy and overcast, but today was reasonably sunny at last, in the low 30s, with little wind – quite comfortable for getting outside.  Face masks feel like a positive asset in temperatures such as those of today.  It was not so long ago that people were just getting used to wearing face masks (and in many cases not wearing them at all).  Now it is axiomatic for me not to leave the house without one, and most of the other pedestrians I encountered were wearing their masks even out of doors.  I had to do some shopping today as well, and everyone in the store was wearing a mask.  It is good to see that people are observing this precaution; the masks appear to be the best preventative we have available – apart from the vaccines, which will require many weeks yet to be distributed among the general populace.

There has been a trend towards deceleration in the amount of increase in COVID-related new cases and deaths, but it has lasted only a couple of days up to this point and it is premature to get up hopes that the effects of the virus are diminishing.  Christmas has come and gone, and we will not know until a couple of weeks from now to what extent the festivities have been spreading the infection.  There are still the New Year’s celebrations to get through as well.  We reached 100,000 deaths in late May; it was four months later that the death toll reached 200,000; and the 100,000 deaths that occurred after that (pushing us to over 300,000 in mid-December) took place in a bare eleven weeks. 

Other countries have been undergoing spikes similar to ours, albeit on a smaller scale.  Japan has closed its borders.  Only Japanese citizens and foreign residents will be allowed to travel into the country.  Anyone who enters Japan must show proof of a negative coronavirus test 72 hours before the departing flight and must quarantine for two weeks after arrival.  This ban starts on Monday (December 28^th) and will last throughout the month of January. 

African nations have been undergoing a second wave of the COVID virus.  For a long time the African nations generally were faring much better than European or Asian ones, as a consequence of their rigorous lockdowns.  Even now the reported figures for the entire continent are 2.6 million COVID cases and 61,000, which is smaller than those for many individual countries such as the U.S., India, Brazil, Russia, etc.  But they are almost certainly under-representations.  There are many factors contributing to an acceleration in the spread of the virus.  Keeping reasonably clean is a problem in many areas, where soap can be prohibitively expertise for their residents.  Many also are unable to pay for transportation to a hospital if they become ill, which means that in several cases people are taking to their bed and even dying at home.  No one at this point is able to estimate how many COVID deaths go unreported for this reason.  In several areas, people are showing signs of “coronavirus fatigue” similar to our own:  restaurants are busy, social distancing is rare, large family gatherings are common, and mask wearing is not carried out.  The Proud Boys will no doubt be gratified to learn that several African regions appear to share their belief that mask-wearing carries a stigma.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 80,705,742; # of deaths worldwide: 1,764,329; # of cases U.S.: 19,430,501; # of deaths; U.S.: 339,901. 

An inactive day – Christmas – Biden and Trump observe the holiday – Evening statistics

There was a dearth of news yesterday, as one might expect for the day before Christmas, and there was a dearth of personal activity as well.  The weather was anything but festive, raining off and on every hour, damp and gloomy, despite being relatively warm for the season.  Today was much better, albeit colder and still overcast for the most part, but the rain has stopped and on occasion the sunshine broke through.  When I went out I saw a great quantity of birds in downtown Fairfax, chiefly starlings but also a large number of robins.  Normally I see only one or two of them at a time but today there was a large flock of them mingling with the starlings in their hunt for food. 

Christmas, as many have complained, has been distorted by the incessant commercialization, and yet something of its original intent still comes through, even in our largely secular society.  Some would-be debunkers have pointed out that Christmas has its origins in the Roman Saturnalia – which incidentally was not a series of orgies, despite the popular legend to that effect, but a merry celebration in which servants and slaves got a day off and everyone feasted – a typical winter solstice holiday, in short.  But what matters is not where Christmas comes from, but what the Christians have done with it.  They have taken a holiday that was pleasurable but not especially important and have transformed it into something much more meaningful.  The essential message of Christmas is peace and good will to all mankind – not to members of a specific group or a specific race or even a specific religion, but to everyone.  It is a message that needs to be sent out periodically, and for that reason non-Christians (of which I am one) as well as Christians owe this holiday a debt of gratitude.  As Dickens has said, it is “a good time; a kind, forgiving, charitable, pleasant time; the only time I know of, in the long calendar of the year, when men and women seem by one consent to open their shut-up hearts freely, and to think of people below them as if they really were fellow-passengers to the grave, and not another race of creatures bound on other journeys.”

Our President and our President-Elect have celebrated Christmas, each in his characteristic manner:  Biden has issued a televised message striving to offer some consolation for the COVID-related restrictions on the usual festivities at this time of year and to offer a gesture of national support.  Trump has gone to Florida to play several rounds of golf. Many commentators have complained that Trump is neglecting his responsibilities by taking to the links; but for my part, I would much rather see him there than closeted with his cronies plotting to overturn the results of the election. 

Yesterday’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 79,695,307; # of deaths worldwide: 1,748,243; # of cases U.S.: 19,094,251; # of deaths; U.S.: 336,870. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 80,193,932; # of deaths worldwide: 1,756,946; # of cases U.S.: 19,209,361; # of deaths; U.S.: 338,263. 

Shopping for food, early in the pandemic and now – The latest election lawsuit – The White House faces reality – Evening statistics

Christmas is swiftly approaching.  I’ve been trying to get a sufficient supply of food so that I can avoid the stores during the crowding that occurs in supermarkets and food stores just before the holidays, and in particular I’ve been avoiding the fashionable stores (Whole Foods, Wegman’s, Trader Joe’s).  There are plenty of alternatives in my neighborhood.  It is interesting to note that all of the shortages that I observed earlier this year have completely disappeared by now.  Indeed, three new supermarkets have opened within a two-mile radius from my house during the past four months.  I still am a bit puzzled as to how that is possible.

I’ve been irritated with the news networks because I wasn’t able to find out from them when the Supreme Court is likely to decide on the latest lawsuit filed by Donald Trump to overturn the decisions of the Pennsylvania Supreme Court rejecting his challenges of that state’s election results.  It turns out, however, that there is a good reason for this vagueness:  although Trump has been talking about it for a week, he didn’t actually file the petition until late today.  The petition is asking for results by noon of December 23^rd.  It would seem a basic requirement to submit a petition for a court decision at least a few days before its expected deadline instead of some hours after it.  In other words, this lawsuit appears to be merely a gesture and nothing more.  I should have remembered that he is continuing to raise funding on the basis of contesting the election, which of course is going straight to his pocket.  In my speculations about his motivations I’ve been concentrating on factors such as wounded vanity, personal vendettas, and self-delusion, but I completely forgot about sheer unadulterated greed – which was foolish of me, I admit.  I have the excuse that Trump’s is a multi-faceted personality; it is easy to lose track of the bewildering variety of ways in which he manages to be morally repugnant.

It turns out that a memo was sent within the White House instructing employees how to pack up and what sort of departure schedule to expect.  Trump rescinded the memo after it was sent out – which shows, first, that the White House staff at any rate has no illusions about Trump’s remaining there after January 20^th and, second, that Trump has so little control over his staff that he doesn’t even realize that they are busily organizing their departure, whether he authorizes them or not.  His wife Melania is displaying a considerably more realistic attitude, meticulously itemizing the furniture and art to be shipped to Mar-a-Lago and touring schools in that area in order to select one for Barron.  Maternal instinct she undoubtedly has, and it will be greatly needed in the next several months, when she not only will have to look after her son’s welfare but will have to tend to the whims and poutings and tantrums of that overgrown infantile husband of hers.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 79,031,324; # of deaths worldwide: 1,736,581; # of cases U.S.: 18,915,483; # of deaths; U.S.: 334,174. 

On the Dickey Ridge Trail – The vaccines are underway – Evening statistics

The first hike of winter was completed under appropriate conditions.  Minimal as the recent snowfall was here, the amount of snow was much greater to the west as one approached the Blue Ridge Mountains.  The original hike (over Knob and Neighbor Mountains) had to be canceled because the area of Skyline Drive where we planned to start the hike was closed.  Instead we went to the Dickey Ridge Trail, whose trailhead is located outside of Shenandoah National Park.  Here again we had to modify our intentions.  At first we expected to go from the trailhead to the end of the Dickey Ridge Trail where it meets the Appalachian Trail and then return – about 9 miles each way.  The first few miles up to the Visitor Center were rather icy but well-trodden and it was not unduly difficult for those wearing micro-spikes.  Going past the Visitor Center was something else again.  No one had gone before us on the trail since the snowfall, and we had to go through snow reaching well over our ankles and encrusted with a plate of ice on the top.  It was very fatiguing, and by the time we came to the overlook beyond the Visitor Center we decided to shorten the hike by going to the Snead Farm Trail to the fire road and returning via the fire road and picnic grounds to the Visitor Center, and from there back along the Dickey Ridge Trail to the trailhead – about 11½ miles in all, with a little over 2100 feet in elevation.  It was rather cloudy but the views at the overlook were all the more striking for the patches of snow coating much of the valley below.

There is some pleasant news to report for a change.  There has been a bit of a decrease in the number of new COVID cases for the last few days.  It may be that the vaccines are already starting to have an effect.  Distribution has been moving rapidly and, thankfully, people in the health care profession are getting priority access to it.  Of course it’s a bit premature to declare victory at this point; we still have to get through the Christmas and New Year celebrations, which will lead to numerous social gatherings and subsequent infections.  Also, the number of deaths has climbed upwards continually for the past several weeks.  The American mortality rate is now 0.1% – about one in 1000.  Not an overwhelming amount, but it is far from insignificant.  Still, with the vaccines in place and distribution going as planned, the prospects for improvement by the spring are good. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 78,333,082; # of deaths worldwide: 1,722,483; # of cases U.S.: 18,671,852; # of deaths; U.S.: 330,474. 

The link to the complete journal is:  https://betulacordifolia.com/?order=asc

Kilauea – Holiday travel – Trump’s latest escapade – Evening statistics

An eruption of Kilauea on the Big Island of Hawaii occurred at about 11:30 HST (6:30 EST) and authorities are requesting residents to remain inside to avoid ash exposure.  This item interests me because I have been on Kilauea myself several years ago.  My brother and my parents and I visited Hawaii Volcanoes National Park and I was quite surprised by the lack of restrictions on where visitors could wander over the lava field.  There were indeed barriers posted just before the lava flow started, I could hardly help noticing the patches glowing a dull red in the rock path underneath our feet (at times I wondered if the rubber soles of my shoes would be distorted by the heat emanating from below) and my surprise was increased when we came fairly close to the lava pouring into the sea, resulting in a great plume of mingled smoke and steam.  The obsidian lava mingling with sea water could not fail to fill the surrounding atmosphere with minute particles of glass, and it was strange to me that the park authorities were not more solicitous about its effects on visitors’ lungs.  It was a magnificent sight and I was glad of the opportunity to view it, but if I had had the administration of the park in my hands, I would have placed the barriers somewhat further from the lava flow.  I believe that stricter safety guidelines have been issued since our visit there, which occurred at least two decades ago. 

Holiday travel is on the rise.  More than 1 million people used the airlines today, for the first time since November 29^th.  There has been a slight decrease in the numbers of new cases and of COVID-related deaths in the past two or three days, but these are certain to augment again just as they did as a result of the Thanksgiving festivities.  It has been estimated (by AAA, among others) that about 85 million people will travel between Dec. 23 and Jan. 3, most of them by car. That would be a drop of nearly one-third from a year ago, but it is still a massive movement of people in the middle of a pandemic.

Good old Donald, you never can keep him down.  Undeterred by the failure of at least three cases challenging the results of the Pennsylvania state election results and that were swiftly tossed out of court, he has issued yet another case, this one directed to the Supreme Court.  It is useless asking whether he is aware that the Supreme Court has already rejected cases out of hand concerning challenges to election results or whether he knows how distasteful he is making himself not only to his countrymen at large but to his erstwhile Republican allies.  He knows only that he will be open to attack from various lawyers pursuing the charges levied against him once he steps down from office, and he will resort to any means short of murder to retain his power.  Indeed, I have my doubts about that last qualifying phrase.  Biden will do well to watch his back when he enters the White House on January 20^th.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 77,688,116; # of deaths worldwide: 1,708,249; # of cases U.S.: 18,456,062; # of deaths; U.S.: 326,682. Well over half a million new COVID cases worldwide, of which the U.S. accounts for more than a third.  There was a time when both Brazil and India seemed on the verge of catching up with us in the number of COVID cases, but they’re trailing far behind us now.

Early and late circadian rhythms – The next phase of vaccination – The most likely candidates for COVID – Unanswered questions about the pandemic – Evening statistics

A placid day, spent mainly hiking at Burke Lake and afterwards addressing Christmas cards.  The solstice will occur at about 10:00 tomorrow, so today will be the shortest day of the year. 

During my childhood and adolescence I was quite a late riser, getting up for school very reluctantly and not fully awake until well into the morning.  In graduate school I would arise at 10:00 AM whenever my schedule allowed it.  I frequently got ill during this time of year, and could generally be assured of at least one severe cold or bout of influenza during the first three weeks of December.  When I began to work at an office and, later on, when I hiked periodically during weekends as well, my sleeping schedule necessarily changed.  I have long been a “lark” as opposed to an “owl,” and I remain one even now, when I’m retired and have no obligation to get up early.  The periods of illness in late autumn abruptly disappeared when I changed my sleeping habits.  Can the fact that I was receiving the maximum amount of daylight during the days approaching the solstice be related to this cessation of annual illness?  It is only a theory of mine and I have no substantive data to back it up, but I’d be interested to find out if anyone has made a study of sleeping patterns and their relation to susceptibility to illness.

A CDC advisory panel recommends that the next in line for receiving the vaccines should be elderly people over 75 and essential workers such as emergency responders, teachers, corrections officers, postal workers, public transit workers, and food supply workers.  This seems to me eminently reasonable.  I would like to get the vaccine eventually, but I recognize that others face much greater chances of getting infected than I do, with my relatively limited contact with others and the absence of underlying conditions.  This phase of vaccines will probably continue to the end of February.  People in my situation (over 65, less than 75, with no underlying conditions) are likely to have access to the vaccine in March. 

Some progress has been made in determining who is more likely to get infected.  Age, of course, was known to be a factor from the start.  So is gender:  men are more prone to the COVID infection than women.  Race may also be a factor, although this is less certain; minority races tend to be economically disadvantaged in comparison with the majority, and the fact that, for example, a Hispanic is more likely to have a job for which telecommuting is not an option plays a role in the higher rate of infection.  Obesity, hypertension, and diabetes are all significant underlying factors.  Therapeutic treatment of the disease has improved considerably.  In April the mortality rate was over 6%.  It is now well under 2% cumulatively, and for those who have contracted the disease recently, the rate is closer to 1%. 

There are, however, many unanswered questions, as to why the disease should be so much more severe in some cases than others in the same risk category.  I have frequently have had occasion to mention Nick Cordero, the Broadway performer who contracted the disease and eventually succumbed to it.  He was relatively young, in perfect health before he became infected with COVID, physically fit, with no excess weight.  Why was it so virulent in his case while in the case of Trump – thirty years older, overweight, and physically inactive – it had relatively little effect?  And Cordero’s case is far from unique.  The cases of young and fit men and women becoming severely or even fatally ill as a result of COVID comprise a minority, but they are not insignificant.  There are former marathon runners who now find it difficult to walk from one end of a room to another, people who used to go to the gym every day who now are barely capable of making coffee in the morning, and so on.  One side effect of COVID is damage to the circulatory system, which induces fatigue at the smallest provocation.  But it seems, at the moment, to be quite sporadic.  Some people get it and some don’t.  There appears no way of telling, in advance, how severe the disease is likely to be in any individual case.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 77,157,719; # of deaths worldwide: 1,699,135; # of cases U.S. 18,266,402; # of deaths; U.S.: 324,857.

Point Reno – The beauties of Washington D.C. – Another sad COVID story – Donald Trump manages to surprise again – Evening statistics

In pursuit of my new goal of covering state high points in the region I went to Point Reno today in Tenleytown.  It is strange to reflect that in all of the years I’ve lived in the DC metro area, I have never been there before.  But in truth it is not especially interesting in itself.  It is a pleasant municipal park and nothing more.  The geodesic marker occurs on a very modest eminence (a little over 400 feet above sea level) from which the ground slopes at a slight gradient and much of the surrounding area is little more than 50 feet lower, so that the views at the top of the hill are not especially dramatic. 

Still, the excursion gave me a chance to visit downtown Washington again, which I’ve hardly done at all since March.  How beautiful the city is!  Whatever else may be said about the United States, we have reason to be proud of our national capital.  It was not always so; during much of the 19^th century it was raw and unfinished and inelegant, according to many reports from foreign visitors.  Even as recently as 1960 John Kennedy famously described it as a city of “Northern charm and Southern efficiency.”  It has taken a long time for it to come into its own, but it has bloomed during the decades that I have lived in the area, its architecture an admirable mix of old and new set perfectly within the natural setting of piedmont hills with a network of various creeks draining into the broad Potomac and with numerous earthen footpaths  connecting various neighborhoods with one another.  We owe, in addition, a debt of gratitude to the restriction that limited the height of the buildings and prevented the downtown from being transformed into a wilderness of skyscrapers – as is the case of Manhattan, for instance, where the buildings’ gloomy shadows engulf Central Park during nearly every hour of the day.  One must also mention, in this connection, the administration of Anthony Williams, who not only improved services, lowered tax rates, and upgraded the performance of city agencies, but who managed to revitalize and in some cases redesign several neighborhoods that were in a state of decline.  The neighborhood immediately north of the Mall, for instance, which had been rather shabby during the time I was growing up, is now exciting and bustling, full of activity. 

This has been one of the consequences of the virus:  the opportunities for visiting the city have diminished because of the dangers of using public transportation.  Driving in the city streets always remains difficult and parking can be quite an issue in some neighborhoods; and in the past I always used the Metro to travel to the city.  I hesitate to use the Metro now, at any rate as long as the risk of infection continues to loom as large as it currently does.

As an illustration thereof, I came across yet another sad story today.  Vanessa Gonzalez of Whittier, CA, was diagnosed with COVID 19 days before she delivered her daughter.  She was not allowed to hold her child for fear of infecting the infant and could see her only via Facetime on her cellphone.  As matters turned out, she never had the opportunity to hold her child by hand.  Two days after she was discharged (during which time she was quarantined from her family members) she suffered a heart attack induced by the virus and died less than a month later.  The bereaved husband not only has the daughter but two young sons to look after on his own.  It’s easy to forget, when looking at statistics, the suffering of the individuals that these figures represent.  There are thousands of stories like these, and they are increasing daily.

Donald Trump has not said much about challenging the election results in recent days but he has still managed to slip in some strange eccentricities.  Of all things – he started abusing John McCain a couple of nights ago:  McCain, who could not possibly represent a threat to Trump in any way, having been dead for more than two years.  As one of the hobbits in The Lord of the Rings says about “Sharkey” (actually Saruman using an alias) giving orders to fell and burn trees, pollute the air and water, and mess up the environment generally without providing the slightest financial improvement, “There’s no longer even any bad sense in it.”  What can he possibly hope to gain from such behavior?  The only effect it can have is to alienate the very people upon whom he is depending to support his continued challenges to Biden’s victory.  There are not many cases of sheer personal spite being stronger than one’s self-interest, and it is rare indeed to see a public display of such an emotion in the political world; but our President is an exception to all rules, particularly those that involve self-respect and any sense of decency. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 76,600,942; # of deaths worldwide: 1,691,113; # of cases U.S.: 18,073,736; # of deaths; U.S.: 323,391.

The states’ highest peaks – Strange silence in the White House – Evening statistics

I noticed an article today describing the highest peaks in each state, and it occurred to me to tally which ones I’ve summited to date.  These are, listed from lowest to highest, Mount Katahdin (Maine), Mount Rogers (Virginia), Mount Washington (New Hampshire), Clingman’s Dome (Tennessee), Mount Mitchell (North Carolina), and Wheeler Peak (New Mexico).  However, it occurred to me that I will have the leisure in the following weeks to visit a few more:  Point Reno (District of Columbia), Ebright Azimuth (Delaware), Mount Davis (Pennsylvania), Backbone Mountain (Maryland), Mount Davis (Pennsylvania), and Spruce Knob (West Virginia) – all of which are in driving distance from my residence for a day trip.  Also, as it becomes easier to stay in hotels I will be resuming my attempts to complete segments of the Appalachian Trail, and in the course of covering the portion that runs through New Jersey I will be able to summit High Point.  Some friends of mine and I have tentative plans to visit Sequoia National Park as well, which would give me the opportunity to summit Mount Whitney.  If all of these are realized, I will have a total of 14 state high points to my credit.  Again. lf I travel to the Midwest to visit friends in 2021, as I probably will once the virus is brought under control, I may perhaps visit the high points in some of those states as well.  It is, I admit, not a particularly pressing goal:  many of the “high points” are little more than hills.  The peaks I have already covered were done for the sake of the hikes they provided; the fact that they are the high points in the state in which they are located was merely a bonus.  But it is just as well to have a project of some kind during the months when the possibility of long-term visits to anywhere out of state will be limited.

There is not much news from the White House.  I don’t know whether or not this is a good thing.  There seems little probability that Trump, after futilely initiating lawsuit after lawsuit to keep him in office, has suddenly become amenable to reason.  Perhaps the defection of Mitch McConnell hit him harder than anticipated.  At any rate, he has said little for the past few days.  Nor has he responded to suggestions that he lay the groundwork for running again in 2024.  He has been spending a considerable amount of time in the Oval Office, sometimes not retiring to the residential portion of the White House until after 8:00 PM, and conferring with a coterie of various advisors, including Mike Pence and Mark Meadows.  But these discussions appear to be focusing on vaccine distribution and the proposed second stimulus check more than anything else.  Perhaps he realizes at last that he will have to make arrangements for himself and his family after January 20^th.  Among other things, his continued residence at the Mar-a-Lago club is disputed by its members because of an agreement he signed specifying that guests could stay at the club no more than three non-consecutive weeks in any given year.  If he wishes to reside in Florida he will have to look elsewhere for a long-term stay.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 75,983,592; # of deaths worldwide: 1,680,225; # of cases U.S.: 17,884,427; # of deaths; U.S.: 320,813.

French winters and our own – A brilliant day after a snowfall – An unexpected side benefit from use of face masks – Mingled hopes and fears – Evening statistics

When I took a French class in high school, one of the texts that we were given to read was “Silence de la mer” (“Silence of the Sea”) by Vercors.  Not much of this novella lingers in my memory but there was one detail that made an impression.  Throughout the story the “pale wintry sun” is mentioned numerous times, with heavily symbolic emphasis – symbolic of what, I’m no longer sure at this date, but there is no question that it was symbolic of something or other.  The reason that I remember this phrase is that it did not (and does not) tally with my own observation:  the sun in winter, at any rate in this area, can be wonderfully luminous, particularly during the aftermath of a snowfall.  Perhaps matters are different in continental Europe.  Victor Hugo’s description of winter in Les Miserables is certainly forbidding:

“Winter:  no warmth, no light, no noonday, the evening passing on to the morning; fogs, twilight; the window is gray; it is impossible to see clearly through it.  The sky is but a vent-hole.  The whole day is a cavern.  The sun has the air of a beggar.  A frightful season!”

Nothing could have presented a greater contrast to this passage than what unfolded before us today:  brilliant sunlight emanating from a nearly cloudless sky, air like crystal, snow and ice on the ground glittering in the sunshine with opaline glints here and there, the atmosphere smelling fresh and clean as if it had been newly washed.  The temperature certainly was cold, but the continual sunshine made it feel warmer than it actually was.  It simply was a delight to be outside and when I returned to my home, as dusk was falling, I did so with reluctance.

Incidentally, wearing a face mask turns out to be unexpectedly convenient in these temperatures; I felt quite warm all over when I was outside, instead of being chilled at the chin and the tip of my nose (which is what usually happens when I go out of doors during this season).  I may take to using one during future winter seasons even after the pandemic is over. 

Matters are in a curious state at present; we are currently at a stage of hope and also one of profound discouragement.  The Moderna vaccine has been approved and distribution of it is beginning.  With two vaccines, each of them rated at a success rate of 94% or higher, we have a good chance of containing the virus at last.  On the other hand, it is gaining even more momentum than it has displayed previously.  The increase of cases yesterday was the second-highest on record and the number of deaths is at an all-time high.  My guess is that the effects of the vaccines will be felt some time late in the first quarter of 2021, but that in the meantime we will continue to be buffeted by the COVID virus with accelerating casualties.  I do not see how we can escape with less than ½ million deaths by the end of June.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 75,247,918; # of deaths worldwide: 1,667,124; # of cases U.S.: 17,617,659; # of deaths; U.S.: 317,660.

The first snowfall of the season – Jane Austen and Ludwig van Beethoven – The perplexities of Mitch McConnell – Evening statistics

The first winter snowstorm has been something of a washout.  It started off with a fine spirited show of swirling snowflakes, but as it progressed it quickly became mixed with rain and the actual accumulation is well under an inch.  When I cleared the sidewalk and driveway I was doing more of pushing slush to the side than of shoveling snow.  There is still some degree of precipitation going on, but it is more drizzle than anything else.  It certainly will be inadvisable to drive tomorrow if it is avoidable, since the combination of half-melted snow and rainfall will be transformed to ice overnight. 

Today is the 245^th anniversary of the birth of Jane Austen and the 250^th anniversary of the birth of Beethoven.  Actually, there is some doubt about the latter date:  Beethoven’s baptism, which occurred December 17^th, 1770, is officially recorded, but his birth certificate is lost.  He himself regarded the 16^th as his birthday, and we may as well do the same.  The works of both endure while various seemingly decisive historical events that occurred during their lifetimes are the most distant of memories.  Who, for example, is familiar with the crisis that raged over Great Britain concerning the trial that resulted from George IV’s desire to divorce his wife Caroline of Brunswick, or even of the scandal that rocked France and indeed the rest of Europe of the execution of the Duc d’Enghien by one of Napoleon’s kangaroo courts?  Both of these were burning issues during Austen’s and Beethoven’s lifetimes.  But now such episodes are known only to a handful of historians, while millions continue to read Austen’s fiction and listen to Beethoven’s music.  And so, perhaps, in due time the numerous frolics and vagaries of the current administration will diminish to the status of mere footnotes.  I cannot honestly offer any contemporary authors or musicians as comparable in stature to these two giants, but still I allow myself to hope that with the passage of time Trump will cease to claim the attention he is now receiving from his compatriots and will dwindle into his natural insignificance.

In her portrayal of Lady Catherine de Bourgh in Pride and Prejudice, incidentally, Austen seems to have been describing Trump’s spiritual ancestress:

“When the ladies returned to the drawing room, there was little to be done but to hear Lady Catherine talk, which she did without intermission until coffee came in, delivering her opinion on every subject in so decisive a manner as proved that she was not used to have her judgment controverted.  She inquired into Charlotte’s domestic concerns familiarly and minutely, and gave her a good deal of advice as to the management of them all; told her how everything ought to be regulated by so small a family as hers, and instructed her as to the care of her cows and her poultry.  Elizabeth found that nothing was beneath this great lady’s attention, which could furnish her with an occasion of dictating to others.”

Not that everyone is submitting tamely at this point to Trump’s dictatorialness.  Mitch McConnell, while not displaying anything remotely comparable to the amount of spirit of an Elizabeth Bennet, is showing at least a degree of genuine resolution by calling upon his fellow-Republicans to accept the Electoral College vote and move on.  It is conceivable that at least one Republican Senator will align himself with Mo Brooks’s intention to challenge the vote on January 6^th.  Several are convinced that the party base remains behind Trump despite his loss. Those who wish to run for president in 2024 – e.g., Ted Cruz or Josh Hawley – may well believe that there is no political gain in sitting on the sidelines and, potentially, a major upside for being the one willing to stand up and appear as Trump’s advocate.  We shall see if McConnell has the ability to contain them. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 74,512,236; # of deaths worldwide: 1,654,266; # of cases U.S.: 17,388,570; # of deaths; U.S.: 314,539.  This has been one of the worst days yet:  more than 243,000 new cases, well over a third of the amount of new cases today worldwide, and nearly 3,500 deaths. 

Snow in the forecast – A rhapsodic tribute to the Electoral College – A second vaccine – Evening statistics

Snow is forecast for tomorrow, and the streets have already been strewn with salt in preparation.  My attitude towards snow has varied over the years.  I loved snowfalls as a child, particularly. I admit, if there was any likelihood of its leading to our getting a day off at school; once I started driving a car my attitude towards it became notably less whole-hearted; and when I became a commuter I regarded it with dread.  For many years, also, I regarded it as an insuperable barrier to hiking, and it was only when I started associating with various hiking clubs and getting accustomed to winter hikes that I learned how mistaken this notion was.  Little by little I became more appreciative of it in later years; and now, in retirement, when I can drive or refrain from driving as I choose, I am recapturing my old childhood enthusiasm for it.  In this area the aftermath of snowstorms is often particularly alluring:  the air becomes unusually clear, as if being run through a filter (which in a sense it has, since the snowflakes as they fall will absorb many of the impurities in the atmosphere created by pollution) and the blue of the sky is more intense than usual. 

When I was a graduate student I sometimes had to teach the concept of the “Homeric simile,” a detailed comparison used in epic poems with the form of a simile many lines in length.  The comparison generally takes the format of a type of event, i.e., “like [an object] when it [performs an action].”  One such simile has occurred to me under the current circumstances:

Just as caterpillars, sickly in color and pulpy in texture,
Drop ignominiously to the ground on their backs,
After having striven in vain to obtain sustenance
From a withered tree long barren of seeds and fruit,
Only to discover that its rank and rotting interior
Yields absolutely nothing of nutritive value,
So have many prominent Republican politicians,
Upon learning the results of the Electoral College vote,
Ceased to support recent endeavors to suborn the election
And abandoned that decrepit and tainted hulk
That is known to the world as Donald Trump. 

In other words, various legislators have, after the Electoral College balloting, at long last realized that there is nothing to be gained, and much to lose, by aligning themselves with Trump’s flailing attempts to obtain the Presidency by illicit means, and many are now formally congratulating Biden on his victory.  Mitch McConnell is among these, and he is calling upon his colleagues to stop lobbying on Trump’s behalf.  Even Trump’s allies from abroad have decided that it is best to come to terms with his successor – for example, Vladimir Putin, disappointed though he must be in losing this kindred spirit as his valued associate, has wished “the president-elect every success.”  Even the Newsmax network, which stridently denied Biden’s victory up to this point, has announced that its reporters will start referring to him as the President-Elect.  Furthermore, Trump’s devoted lackey William Barr has submitted his resignation from the position of Attorney-General, doubtless on the principle that it is better to jump than to be pushed.  To do Trump justice, he is not one to be easily deflected from his unceasing attempts at self-aggrandizement; but I believe that even he must be somewhat taken aback to discover how swiftly he has lost friends in high places.

The Moderna vaccine is now being vetted by the FDA.  If it is approved, it could be administered as early as Monday.  It has certain advantages over the Pfizer vaccine – for example, it does not require to be packaged at -70⁰ Celsius (-94⁰ Fahrenheit) and does not need special equipment for storage.  On the other hand, it cannot be administered to children.  But the two vaccines have approximately the same rate of efficacy, and a second supply of vaccines will help to contain the virus a bit more quickly. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 73,782,191; # of deaths worldwide: 1,640,477; # of cases U.S.: 17,138,735; # of deaths; U.S.: 310,989.   

The hope of resuming Wanderbirds activities again – The Electoral College vote – Dissension among Republicans – Evening statistics

A fellow-member of Wanderbirds sent a note that touched upon the Christmas festivities we generally had at this time of year.  I needed no reminder of how much I miss the activities that the group has organized in the past.  The loss – a temporary one, as I devoutly hope – of the society of the Wanderbirds club has been one of the greatest restrictions for me since the onset of the virus, even with the meliorating factor of occasional hikes with subsets of the group members.  At this point most of the material conveniences I noted in the early months of the pandemic have disappeared:  the food stores are well-stocked again and articles such as toilet paper, paper towels, disinfecting wipes, flour, bread, etc., that used to be in short supply are readily obtainable once more.  But I would gladly barter these for the opportunity of riding with a large group of fellow-hikers to a common destination and then partying together after a hike as the hikers gradually assemble at the bus again once the hike was completed.  However, one cannot choose in such matters.  With luck we will be able to begin resumption of such activities some time in the third quarter of 2021, and in the meantime we must wait in patience.

It is official:  the electoral votes have been cast and Biden is now President-Elect, no matter what any lawsuit may contend.  It’s an important hurdle that has been cleared but it’s not the only one.  There are some more significant dates to come:

• December 23^rd – the date that the states are due to send their vote results to Capitol Hill
• January 3^rd – the swearing in of the new Congress
• January 6^th – electoral votes counted in Congress
• January 20^th – Inauguration Day

I would give a good deal to know what move Trump is planning next.  Lawsuits are even less likely than formerly to have any effect now that Biden has been formally designated at President-Elect.  But I regard it as a given that Trump will not concede and that he will attempt to derail the election results to the utmost of his ability.  He has too much at stake to do otherwise.  The moment he becomes a private citizen, he will be forced to given an accounting for his massive private debts, to say nothing of various charges pending against him of sexual harassment, defrauding various relatives out of their inheritance, and tax evasion.

There is at any rate some dissension among Republican ranks concerning Trump’s conduct, which (to use Jane Austen’s phrase) “though late and reluctant and ungracious, was yet better than nothing.”  Governor Hogan of Maryland has urged other Republicans to accept the election results and move on, while Representative Paul Mitchell from Michigan has formally quitted the party and labeled himself as an Independent, stating openly that he has been driven to this expedient by the efforts of Trump’s supporters to attack our electoral process.  Who knows? – possibly the Republican party is a stage of flux and transition similar to that of the Whig party in the 1850s.  Unquestionably it is high time.  Both the Republican and Democratic parties are showing signs of exhaustion. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 72,627,681; # of deaths worldwide: 1,627,262; # of cases U.S.: 16,936,102; # of deaths; U.S.: 308,017.    

Death of a legislator – The Electoral College process – What comes next?  — Evening statistics

Another uneventful day on a personal level, but there are a few headlines worthy of note.

Dick Hinch was sworn in as Speaker of the House of the New Hampshire Legislature on December 2^nd, but he died of the COVID virus on December 9^th, just one week later.  As has happened so often in the course of this pandemic, in this case it became fatal with extraordinary rapidity.  It is not known for certain how he contracted it, but several have suggested that he attended a gathering of Republican legislators where no masks were used and social distancing was not observed.  The New Hampshire legislature contains at least 60 members (out of 400 total) who have denounced the use of masks and who refuse to wear them.  Not all Republicans in this legislature are so oblivious; several of them have repudiated the lax attitude of their colleagues while Governor Sununu, a Republican, has urged everyone to wear masks and scolded those “who are out there doing just the opposite just to make some bizarre political point.”

The Electoral College convenes tomorrow.  There appears little doubt about the outcome; the question is what Trump and his supporters will do next.  Trump did say on November 27^th that he would concede if the Electoral College voted for Biden; and for those who place their reliance on such an assurance, I have a bridge in Brooklyn I’m offering for sale.  It is possible for a senator and a congressman acting jointly to contest the vote count of an individual state.  Representative Mo Brooks (a Republican from Alabama) has declared his intention of doing so, but at this point no senator has expressed any willingness to join him.  If he does find a partner, the count would stop and the Senate and the House would separately debate the objection on the disputed state’s vote for up to two hours. Then the House and the Senate would vote on whether to sustain the objection.  The approval of both houses would be needed for this purpose.  Since the House of Representatives is under Democratic control and the Senate has a very narrow Republican majority, of whom several already loathe Trump in secret, the chances of this happening are virtually nil.  There are only two cases of such objections even being mooted, once in 1969 over a “faithless elector” (one who failed to vote in accordance with the state’s voting results) and once in 2005 over voting irregularities in Ohio. Neither attempt was successful.

Living under the Trump regime is certainly an educational experience.  I never bothered to find out much about the Electoral College process until now, since in the past it all went like clockwork in nearly every other election in which I participated.  Even the debate occasioned by the voting in Florida in the 2000 election focused on various irregularities in a single state and did not call the electoral process as a whole into question. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 72,627,681 # of deaths worldwide: 1,618,486; # of cases U.S.: 16,735,332; # of deaths; U.S.: 306,451.  Our case incidence rate is now just over 5% and the number of deaths is nearly 0.1%, about one in a thousand. 

Vaccination begins – Evening statistics

A short entry for today, for there was little noteworthy, either privately or publicly.  The vaccine is now in the initial stages of distribution, but it will be a while before it becomes generally available.  Supplies are limited; it appears that there are less than 7,000 for Washington, DC; and of course the health care professionals have priority, since they come in contact with infected people on a daily basis.  Presumably other vaccines will be approved within the next several months or even weeks as well; but I do not anticipate a vaccine being available for general use until the spring.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 72,084,888; # of deaths worldwide: 1,610,771; # of cases U.S.: 16,544,568; # of deaths; U.S.: 305,051.  I have been focusing on American statistics in this journal, but in purely global terms this pandemic is one of the more notable ones.  Nearly 1% of the entire world’s population has been infected by now.  The overall mortality is 2.2% (our rate is a little below the average), which is why the virus has claimed more than 1½ million lives worldwide to date.  In actual numbers this pandemic has one of the largest death tolls, although as a percentage of the global population it is relatively modest at this point.  It certainly is one of the most widespread.  The Plague of Justinian (especially when taking all of the subsequent outbreaks into account) and the Black Death had far greater death tallies, but they were also more localized, being mainly in Europe.  Pandemics that range over all continents are fairly rare, at any rate until recent times.  The pandemics from the past with comparable ranges include:  1) the influenza epidemic of 1847-48 (death toll unknown); 2) the plague pandemic that began in 1855 and continued for a century (death toll 12 million, but the effects of this disease were concentrated in China and India); 3) the influenza epidemic of 1889-90 (death toll 1 million); 4) the encephalitis lethargica epidemic of 1915-26 (death toll 1.5 million); 5) the “Spanish flu” epidemic of 1918-1920 (death toll at least 17 million and perhaps as much as 100 million) 6) the “Asian flu” epidemic of 1957-58 (death toll between 1 and 4 million); 7) the “Hong Kong” flu of 1968-70 (death toll 1-4 million, but again the concentration was mainly in the Far East).  It is impossible to tell what the long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic will be, but there is no doubt that it is a major historical event.It is impossible to tell what the long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic will be, but there is no doubt that it is a major historical event.

Dr. Fauci and the new administration – A (possibly exaggerated) conjecture of the nature of his previous White House consultations – The new illness in India – The rejection of Paxton’s lawsuit – An appropriate blessing  for our departing President – Evening statistics

Biden has requested Dr. Fauci to remain in his current role and to be a chief medical advisor in the upcoming administration; and Fauci accepted the offer quickly, indeed with joyful alacrity.  The relief that he must be feeling as we transition into the new administration is more readily imagined than described.  Does anyone doubt that his previous discussions with our current president have been something like the following? –

DOCTOR:  So, I assume you have seen the recommendations in my report.

PRESIDENT:  Yes, Doctor, I’ve read it carefully, very carefully I assure you.

DOCTOR:  I realize these may seem rather extreme under the circumstances:  a lockdown for a minimum of six weeks, a mandate for wearing facemasks, extensive testing in order to get a handle on how fast the virus is increasing, temporarily shutting down bars and gyms and restaurants, a prohibition on social gatherings of more than ten people, even in houses of worship; but I assure you there is no alterna—

PRESIDENT (cutting in):  Yes, Doctor, I see what you mean.  Let’s discuss these in detail.

DUET – PRESIDENT AND DOCTOR

 PRESIDENT
 The virus is serious, as we all can see,
 But so is the nation’s economy,
 The lockdown that you and the rest recommend
 Would cause businesses to come to an end.
 Their claims, they would be beyond belief
 On funds designated for their relief.
 It would seriously drain our Treasury,
 Which is bad for them and worse for me.
 So you’ll see, being a man of sense,
 With the lockdown we must entirely dispense.

 DOCTOR
 But, Mr. President –

 PRESIDENT
 So much for that.  Now I must ask
 Why this insistence upon the mask?
 It’s so unbecoming; besides, I fear
 Their strings, they grievously pinch the ear.
 And my constituents, as you must see,
 Resent all restraint on their liberty.
 Their united voices I always heed
 To secure re-election, the most pressing need.
 Is the mask worth the risk?  Decidedly, no:
 The mask, dear Doctor – the mask must go.

 DOCTOR
 But, Mr. President –

 PRESIDENT
 We move on to the issue of the virus test.
 Really, Doctor, I must protest,
 If infections have gotten out of hand
 And are spreading virulently throughout the land,
 There’s no need to advertise the fact;
 It would show a preposterous want of tact.
 With no test results to stoke their fears
 And dampen our good people’s smiles and cheers
 There’s less chance of unrest.  Since ignorance is bliss,
 These virus tests I must dismiss.

 DOCTOR
 But, Mr. President –

 PRESIDENT
 Shutting down of bars – hmm, let’s see;
 No, with that suggestion I can’t agree.
 My public’s approval I never can win
 If I deprive them of their bourbon and gin.
 It’s no wonder they need the solace of drink
 When fearmongers have made them, as I think,
 Jittery, nervous, worried, ill at ease,
 Recent news has increased their anxieties
 And put them all in a hell of a funk;
 That being so, let ‘em get drunk.

 DOCTOR
 But, Mr. President –

 PRESIDENT
 Religion is hokum, between you and me –
 I’m sure as a scientist you must agree.
 But my voting bloc that goes to church
 I can’t leave those poor slobs all in the lurch.
 I admit freely it’s true what you say
 That whenever they assemble to pray
 And share in a room their mutual breath
 They increase the risk of illness and death.
 If to you and me their choice seems odd –
 It’s not our problem, the outcome’s up to God.

 DOCTOR
 But, Mr. President –

 PRESIDENT
 Believe me, I value beyond all price
 The benefit of your good advice.
 We must discuss these matters again
 Some time soon; I’m not sure when.
 But I really must leave now; one of my goals
 Today is to get in eighteen holes.
 Oh, well, with so many meetings to align
 I may have to make do instead with nine;
 I regard you, Doctor, as a cherished friend –
 And now this conference has come to an end.

 DOCTOR
 But, Mr. President – but, Mr. President – 

(The PRESIDENT departs while DOCTOR is making this last attempt to get in a word edgewise.  The DOCTOR’s words trail off as he realizes that the attempt is hopeless.)

Actually, now that I look back upon this account I can see that there is something improbable about it.  Setting aside the unlikelihood of anyone speaking, let alone singing, in verse during an administrative conference, is it really imaginable that our current President would jeopardize his golfing schedule by holding a meeting just before he is due to show up at the course?   I think we can all agree that such a contingency is not in the least plausible.  Again, is it all possible that he would pause in the course of his elephantine tread in order to attempt to soothe the feelings of a subordinate with assurances of friendship?  Quite a dubious assumption, it seems to me.  But what really perplexes me is why authors choose to write about such subjects.  I confess that that is completely beyond my comprehension.

In a somewhat less facetious vein, the news from India is better than originally feared.  The illness that was reported a few days ago is still serious and its causes are obscure, but it does not appear that it will become another pandemic.  There are traces of heavy metals such as lead and nickel in several of the patients’ blood samples, and it is also possible that excessive use of bleach and chlorine in sanitation programs has played a role.  It obviously is not to be ignored but at this point its primary causes seem to be environmental factors rather than infection.

Another encouraging development occurred today when the Supreme Court unanimously decided to toss out Ken Paxton’s ludicrous (but seditious) lawsuit to overturn votes in states over which he has not the slightest jurisdiction.  The court order did not go into great detail, but stated simply that the state of Texas has no authority to dictate to other states about how they conduct their electoral process.  Trump’s immediate relatives have resigned themselves by this time to the fact that the election is over, even if he hasn’t.  Melania Trump has begun overseeing shipments of family furniture and art to Mar-a-Lago, where they will move in January, while his daughter and son-in-law, both senior advisers at the White House, are in the process of purchasing bay-front property in Florida.  I am tempted to repeat the old joke from Fiddler on the Roof, when the rabbi is asked whether the Jews, who are supposed to have a blessing for everything, have one for the Czar.  Certainly, he says, and I now apply his blessing for the Czar to our President:  “May the Lord bless and keep Donald Trump – far away from us.”

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 71,410,367; # of deaths worldwide: 1,600,314; # of cases U.S.: 16,287,609; # of deaths; U.S.: 302,727.  Our rate of infection is now close to 5%, or 1 in every 20 of our population. 

Hiking in Caledonia – The Quarry Gap shelter – A glimmering of hope – Evening statistics

This entry will, I trust, be somewhat more cheerful than the previous one.  To begin with, it was a beautiful day – one of the many beautiful days we’ve been having this autumn – and I took advantage of it by going to Caledonia and hiking the various trails in the park and surrounding it.  Normally the Wanderbirds visit this area in the early summer, when the rhododendrons are in full bloom.  This year, of course, the Wanderbirds were not hiking as a group during the summer and I did not go there on my own.  The past summer was extremely warm and humid, and Caledonia, being at a fairly low altitude, tends to be steamy under such conditions.  But late autumn and early winter are good times to visit it as well.  It is a good deal less crowded then and the trails have a great variety of flora, including several groves of rhododendron, mountain laurel, and pine.  I used several of the trails that were included in previous group hikes and wound up doing 17 miles in all.  This hike has pushed my total mileage for the year to over 2,000.  I had made two resolutions the past New Year:   to complete the Appalachian Trail in Pennsylvania and to hike at least 2,000 miles for the year, and now both goals have been reached.

What made the hike especially pleasant, however, was that I was able to do something I had wanted to do for a long time:  that is, to have lunch at the Quarry Gap shelter.  We passed the shelter numerous times on various Wanderbirds hikes, but always within the last two or three miles of our endpoint, when everyone was eager to get back to the bus.  One of the loops I did today covered 3-4 miles of the Appalachian Trail and the shelter was within that segment, so that is where I took my main break and ate at leisure.  There are a few shelters on the Appalachian Trail more elaborate than the Quarry Gap shelter (the Blood Mountain shelter in Georgia and the Jim and Molly Denton shelter in Virginia come to mind) but none are as elegant.  The approach itself is beautiful, particularly from the south, via a series of stone steps surrounded by rhododendron. The wood looks freshly varnished at all times, there is an abundance of seats and tables for people who wish to stop there, and it is always decorated with fresh flowers – the only shelter I’ve ever seen where this occurs.  I got there at 1:00 and I happened to meet one of the shelter’s maintainers.  She was performing several tasks associated with upkeep, such as restocking it with cut wood and sweeping out the floors.  She said that someone comes up at least once every week for maintenance purposes.  She was pleased when I expressed my enjoyment of eating lunch in such a beautiful setting and admitted that she and the others take a bit of pride in making it as comfortable and supplying as many amenities as possible.  They are planning to equip it with special decorations for the upcoming Christmas festivities.

On the radio during my drive home (which, incidentally, takes about as long as getting to the Thornton Gap entrance of Shenandoah National Park from my area, i.e., less than two hours), I heard Dr. Fauci being quoted to the effect that, if the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine receives FDA approval and if it is distributed with sufficient efficiency, matters will be nearly back to normal by the beginning of the third quarter in 2021.  And in fact the FDA did approve the use of the vaccine later in the day.  It was not an especially resounding endorsement – there are still unknown factors about the vaccine.  But the need is pressing.  The death toll was more than 3,100 yesterday, the largest daily amount to date.  Canada as well as the U.K. has begun to use it, and the consensus is that its benefits outweigh its potential risks. It will still be a difficult struggle during the winter as the number of infections increase after the Christmas and New Year celebrations, but with luck the vaccine will start to dent the impact of the COVID virus in February or March. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 70,681,549; # of deaths worldwide: 1,587,463; # of cases U.S.: 16,022,964; # of deaths; U.S.: 299,596.

Interval of calm – Evening statistics – The increasing death toll

After the events of yesterday, today was comparatively subdued.  On the personal level, I took things rather easily, focusing mainly on mundane errands.  In the national news, all states have certified their results and Biden’s expected electoral college vote count this coming Monday is 306, well over the number of 270 required votes as the minimum. 

The most dramatic news comes from today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 69,208,167; # of deaths worldwide: 1,574,722; # of cases U.S.: 15,817,225; # of deaths; U.S.: 296,637.  The death count for today was over 3,000, which is a new record.  We’ve had over 2,500 deaths per day for several days running now.  We are beginning to see the results of the various social gatherings during Thanksgiving; there will be worse to come as cold weather drives more people indoors most of the time and as people gather for Christmas and New Year celebrations.  Our mortality rate is relatively low (about 1.8%, a little over half of those for the U.K. and Italy); therapeutic treatments have improved over the past few months and have driven this rate down substantially.  But the increasingly high numbers of new cases translates into a large number of deaths all the same.  The number of deaths will probably be over 500,000 by the end of January.

Hiking the Great North Mountain region – A nonagenarian hiker – The day of safe harbor – The new ailment in India – The vaccine in the U.K. – The ravages of COVID accelerate – Evening statistics

This has been a day “crowded with incident,” both on the personal and on the national level.

I met with the Vigorous Hikers at the Wolf Gap Recreational Area, where we hiked over the Great North Mountain region along the Mill Mountain, Tuscacora, and Stoney Creek Trails.  We split up into two sub-groups.  The hike included a bushwhack, but it was possible to avoid the bushwhack via a detour that added three miles to the total.  Four of us took this option, of which I was one; I am not overly fond of bushwhacking, although I’ve done it on occasion.  The weather was clear and, initially, quite cold; it was very windy at Wolf Gap and it was only when we went beyond Big Schloss that we got into an area that was sheltered from the wind.  Still, the wind died down and the temperature went up as the day progressed, and it was quite comfortable by noon. 

The four of us who took the longer detour to avoid the bushwhack arrived at the point where the two routes converged well before the others, and in the end we decided to leave after we ate lunch.  The hike leader had given me a walkie-talkie so that I could communicate with him, but generally these do not function very well over a distance of more than a half-mile, and in this instance most of my attempts to notify him of our status failed.  We did have one brief moment when we established contact, but it ended all too quickly, and eventually I had to turn it off because its battery was running low.  At the point of convergence, therefore, I left a note for the hike leader telling him that we had moved on, so that he would not wait for us when he arrived and found that we were not there.  From this point we continued along FS 92 to Rte. 675, where one of the members of our sub-group returned to Wolf Gap, while I and the other two went along various fire roads to the Tibbett Knob Trail – where, unfortunately, the wind picked up again and discouraged lingering at the overlook on the knob’s summit.  But it was worth seeing all the same, especially since my two companions had never seen it before.  (Those who took the bushwhack, as I later learned, followed the shorter route back to Wolf Gap and did not access Tibbett Knob at all.)  Once we got past the worst of the windy areas it was a beautiful day, and it has been such a long time since I’ve been on the Stoney Creek Trail that it was almost like going on a new trail for me.  The complete hike was 18 miles in all, with about 3000 feet of elevation gain, but most of the ascent occurred at the beginning, going up to the ridge on the Mill Mountain Trail, and the remaining ascents were relatively short and gentle.

What made the hike particularly notable, however, was our meeting at the beginning with GP, the “grand old man” of hiking in our area.  He and BH, his wife, generally meet the Vigorous Hikers and undertake a shortened version of the group’s route.  He will be celebrating his 90^th birthday on Thursday, and BH brought some homemade cake (delicious!) for the occasion.  People like GP are nothing short of an inspiration.  It is inevitable that I will lose some of my agility and speed as I grow older, but at any rate there is hope that I may still aspire to activity on the trails even in my old age.  I have seen far too many examples of people withdrawing into a mole-like existence as they grow older and I will be striving to avoid such a fate as long as I can.  GP, as well as several others I have associated with on Wanderbirds hikes, have shown me that this is possible.  Today, for instance, after we had congratulated him and gave him our best wishes, he and BH were cheerfully beginning their hike along the Mill Mountain Trail, which ascends over 600 feet within the first mile.

Alas, one has to come down from the mountain eventually, literally as well as metaphorically.  Not all of the news I heard on the radio and gleaned from the Internet articles was bad, but it was a decided letdown after the revitalizing exertions of the main part of the day.

As predicted, the case brought to the Supreme Court that challenged the results of the Pennsylvania election has been overturned.  The lawsuits initiated by Sidney Powell on behalf of Trump to contest the voting results in Michigan and Georgia have been similarly unsuccessful.  We have now reached the so-called “safe harbor,” the date at which states are supposed to certify their results, set at six days before the casting of the electoral college ballots.  Nonetheless some attempts to derail the election process are still ongoing.  More than 60 Republican law-makers (so-called – in this instance “law-breakers” would be the more accurate term) have made a motion to the state’s congressional delegation to reject Biden’s victory in the state.  And in a truly bizarre development, Texas has mounted an effort to overturn the election results in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, and Wisconsin by filing a lawsuit against them directly to the Supreme Court.  One can imagine the delight of the residents of those four states to learn that they are taking their marching orders from Austin.

There is no additional information about the mysterious new ailment in India.  It is unrelated to COVID, and tests for other viruses such as dengue have come up negative.  Water contamination and air pollution have also been ruled out.  Officials are currently conducting blood tests for pathogens such as E. Coli, which can cause nausea and vomiting, but not typically do not cause seizures as well.  At this point it defies classification and the full extent to which it has spread is unknown.

The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is now being administered in the United Kingdom.  The U.K. has had an especially severe mortality (even worse than our own) and its government has secured 800,000 doses of the vaccine so far, enough to give 400,000 people two doses each.  The FDA is likely to follow this example of approve the emergency use of the vaccine, but it still may be a matter of several days before the vaccine is administered here.

This news provides a much-needed note of hope, for the deaths from the virus in the U. S. have now been averaging more than 2,200 per day; and we have not even accounted for the fallout from the recent Thanksgiving celebrations.  The gatherings typically massed during Christmas and New Year’s will exacerbate the situation.  The news from various states is consistently grim.  To take a few examples – In California more than 22,000 residents test positive for the coronavirus each day, with about 12% inevitably showing up at hospitals in two to three weeks.  Riverside University Health System Medical Center, one of the state’s intensive care units, has opened an ICU in a storage room.  North Carolina’s patient count has doubled in the past 12 days.  In Georgia, the number of confirmed or suspected coronavirus infections has soared more than 70% in the past week, and hospitals are already warning state officials about their ability to absorb new COVID patients.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 68,546,837; # of deaths worldwide: 1,562,031; # of cases U.S.: 15,589,681; # of deaths; U.S.: 293,363. 

A visit to the bank – The upcoming certification deadline – A n innovative electoral principle – Unknown disease in India – Evening statistics

Banks have re-opened – at any rate, my local one has.  I found this out when I tried using the ATM and it could not read a check properly when I tried to deposit it.  To my surprise the door to the bank lobby was unlocked and cashiers were at their counters, so I was able to deposit the check without difficulty.  But it is a bit puzzling.  Matters are certainly not safer now than they were a few months ago.  In fact, infections have been increasing at the rate of close to 200,000 a day nationally for some time and not a day has passed these past two weeks without at least 1,000 deaths.  I kept my visit there to a bare minimum, getting out as quickly as I could and doing all other transactions at the ATM.  Not many customers were present, even though it was a Monday, so I suppose that others have similar concerns.

New Jersey has certified its voter count today – not that there was any doubt about the outcome – and at this point Hawaii and Missouri are the only states yet to certify.  Biden now officially has 288 electoral college votes, 18 more than required to secure his office.  There is one last-gasp hope for the Trump contingent.  Congressman Mike Kelly has filed a petition to the U. S. Supreme Court to cancel Pennsylvania’s certification of a Biden win on the grounds that the state law setting up this year’s election rules violated the U.S. Constitution by restricting state legislative control of the process.  The hearing date is set for tomorrow, but it seems unlikely that anything will come of it.  Most legal experts regard such a claim as fairly clumsy. Tomorrow, the 8^th, is the deadline for a final certification of all states.  It’s still a week before the official casting of Electoral College ballots, but tomorrow will at any rate signify the end of a significant hurdle.

The Trump groupies are clearly starting to get desperate.  They are now contending that the election is suspect because Biden won little over 16% of the counties in the U. S.  Of course, that claim omits a factor – ignored by people quoting this statistic – known as “population density.”  For instance, the county in which I live has more residents than the entire state of Wyoming (or, for that matter, several other states such as Vermont and Montana), by several hundred thousand; and it is far from being the most populous county in the nation.  I realize that the Electoral College has been established to ensure that the states with the greatest concentrations of residents don’t run roughshod over those with less, but this is the first time I’ve anyone argue that we apply this principle on a county-by-county basis.

There is a new disease that has come to the surface in India.  Its symptoms have more in common with epilepsy than the flu:  seizures, headaches, and vomiting.  The persons affected with it have tested negative for the COVID virus.  More than 400 people have been hospitalized by this as yet unidentified illness, and it is increasing just at the rate as the COVID virus was during its early stages.  It is fairly localized at the moment and there are no reported cases outside of India, but it needs to be monitored.  The last thing we need at this point is another pandemic.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 67,921,471; # of deaths worldwide: 1,549,733; # of cases U.S.: 15,365,416;  # of deaths; U.S.: 290,438.  At this rate we will reach a total of well over 300,000 deaths by the end of the month. 

Burke Lake – Winter hiking is soon to come – Giuliani and the virus – A long list – Evening statistics

I wanted to enjoy the day but not to drive very much, so I took the Burke Lake/Lake Mercer double-loop hike.  Ordinarily I do not wear a mask while hiking, but this trail is so flat and encounters with other hikers are so frequent that I put it on for the entire hike (which is about 11 miles in all).  It was chilly but sunny and only slightly breezy.  This is one of the loveliest autumns I can remember, not so much for its foliage – we’ve had other years when it was slightly more colorful – but for the clarity of the air and the absence of haze in the sky.  This past spring was very cool and wet, and the summer had some of the most punishing heat I can remember; but the autumn has more than made up for it.

There were indeed many people outside.  I was somewhat premature in my lamentations of yesterday, I perceive.  People are still getting out, to the local parks in the area at any rate.  I’m glad it is so.  I hope that this trend will continue in winter and that people won’t be transformed into moles, as they usually are during that season.  I can remember how, when I was working, my colleagues were intrigued by my habit of hiking every weekend and how they would ask, “But what you do in winter?”  “I go out hiking,” was my reply, and they were always taken aback, even amazed on some occasions.  I’ve already spoken about the advantages of hiking in winter (see the entry for August 7^th) but I will admit that it took me a while to get used to the idea myself.  Once I learned how to dress for such hikes I was able to appreciate the advantages of hiking during that season.  I’m actually looking forward to the first snowfall; it can be such a delight to hike on a trail covered with an inch or two of snow.

Yesterday’s entry was premature in yet another way – or was it eerily prescient?  After my dirge about the reputation of Giuliani I find that he has just been stricken with the COVID virus.  And it appears that he could conceivably have infected many others, since he has been resolute in wearing no mask for all of his public appearances.  In his case, it has been serious enough to necessitate to his checking into a hospital.  He is one of the latest of those in Trump’s orbit who have contracted the virus, the roster including:  the President himself, ever disdainful of taking the most elementary precautions in this matter, his wife Melania, his eldest son Donald Trump Jr., his youngest son Barron, Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany, campaign advisor Corey Lewandowski, Communications Director Hope Hicks, Senior Policy Advisor Stephen Miller, US Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Ben Carson, White House aide Nicholas Luna, Principal Assistant Press Secretary Chad Gilmartin, Counselor to the President Kellyanne Conway, campaign manager Bill Stepien, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Republican Senator Mike Lee (Utah), Republican Senator Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Republican Senator Ron Johnson (Wisconsin), and Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel.  You’d think that people would be getting the message that working alongside Donald Trump may be hazardous to one’s health.  Hazardous to one’s mental health too, perhaps, although that is less certain:  if the conduct of the President’s staff during various press conferences provides any indication, diminished mental stability appears to be a pre-requisite for entering Trump’s service.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 67,375,271; # of deaths worldwide: 1,541,350; # of cases U.S.: 15,159,490; # of deaths; U.S.: 288,906.