Month: March 2021

The threat lessens for those who are vaccinated – The threat resumes for those who are not – The departure of Angela Merkel – Merkel contrasted with our statesmen – A new lawsuit against the ex-President – A literary disquisition about “The Ambassadors,” which the judicious reader is advised to skip – Evening statistics

There are some hopeful signs, despite the warnings that the CDC Director issued yesterday.  About 36% of the population in the U.S. has received at least one vaccine dose.  Even one dose has an efficacy rate of about 80%; the second dose is merely a booster that decreases the chances of infection still further.  At this point more than 50,000,000 people are considered fully vaccinated (about 15% of the national population).  Moreover, this rate of effectivity applies to asymptomatic cases as well as symptomatic ones, which means that the risk of vaccinated people transmitting to others is minimal – just as my friend BF maintained yesterday.  In addition, the U.S. is somewhat less vulnerable than many other countries on account of the large number of people who have been infected already and have since produced an antibody response.  The official number of these is over 30,000,000 but the real number may be as much as three times that amount. 

Rochelle Walensky’s concerns are by no means misplaced, however.  Even if, for example, 75% of the population is protected by vaccination or previous exposure, the remaining 25% is at grave risk.  The B.1.1.7 variant (the most common one at this point) is more transmissible and has a higher mortality rate than the earlier ones.  We can expect to see more deaths among younger people in the current surge, as has been occurring in most European nations.  Not all of the unvaccinated will be holdouts.  Significant distribution inequities are appearing in many areas.  In Michigan, as of mid-March, 28% percent of black people over 65 had received one dose of vaccine  and only 15% in Detroit – even though more than 60% percent of all senior citizens in the state have been at least partially vaccinated.  I have seen examples of this close at home.  Various friends of mine who are outside the 1A or 1B categories have made arrangements to get appointments for their doses far from their residences – in rural areas or even in other states.  I certainly don’t blame them.  Virginia’s rollout rate has accelerated, but it is still behind the overall national level; in Fairfax County vaccination rollout will not advance to the 1C category until mid-April.  But the fact remains:  my friends, the overwhelming number of whom are white, have the leisure and the opportunity for such an option, whereas a black or Hispanic person in the DC metro area is somewhat less likely to have the means for it – less likely to have access to a home workstation on which the necessary information can be obtained, less likely to be able to afford a day or several days off from work to travel to a distant vaccination site, less likely (if living in downtown DC) to have a car of one’s own, and so on.

Angela Merkel will be stepping down from her position as Chancellor of Germany.  An astounding 67% of the national population said that they wanted her to serve to the end of her term instead of stepping down earlier, even though she has retained the position for 18 years.  It is easy to see why.  Regardless of her policies, Angela Merkel has not given any of her relatives positions in the government; she has lived a lifestyle in which yachts, private jet planes, huge parcels of real estate, and expensive cars are, for some inexplicable reason, strangely absent; not being an overgrown child, she has no household servants to clean up after her or to prepare her meals; she lives in an apartment of moderate dimensions instead of an ornately furnished mansion; her private life has not been touched by a breath of scandal, either on the personal or the financial level.

Why can’t we get statesmen like this one?  Even the well-meaning ones here are quickly sucked up into the whirlpool of television interviews, photo shoots, book deals, extravagantly paid speeches for academic and corporate events, lavish houses requiring an incredible amount of upkeep, fashion-model-style wardrobes, and all the rest of it.  Trump of course is the most egregious example, but even Obama is working on a new memoir (Michelle’s having already reaped millions), earning 6-figure speaker fees, and striking a deal with Netflix.  Political leaders who were content to lead lifestyles very different from those of Hollywood actors and sports team athletes were not uncommon a century ago; now they have virtually vanished from the American political scene.

And while I’m on the subject of American political leaders, I will mention that yet another lawsuit has emerged against Donald Trump.  Officers James Blassingame and Sidney Hemby, members of the Capitol Police, have filed charges that Trump deliberately encouraged the insurrectionists of January 6th and thereby transformed the police officers into targets of attack.  It is to be hoped that other officers whose lives were placed in danger will be prodded into taking similar action. 

I know that at times I seem to obsess on the matter, but by now nearly three months have elapsed since the wanton and seditious attack on the Capitol as part of a failed coup d’état; and so far its perpetrator has undergone no substantive penalties for his treasonous actions.  Yes, certain organizations have withdrawn their support from him and his corporations; yes, he has been ordered to pay a few fines here and there; yes, he has been deprived of access to his beloved Twitter.  But up to this point he has not been directed to pay any amount that could make a dent in his financial holdings and he is in no immediate danger of serving the slightest amount of the prison time that he so amply deserves.  He still in short has the potential to wreak a great deal of damage; and I am anxious to see this savage wild beast declawed and toothless.

On this rainy afternoon I have been trying, without success, to plow through Henry James’ “The Ambassadors,” which admirers of The Master would have one believe is his crowning achievement.  The sad truth of the matter is that it is poorly written, lamely narrated, and morally askew.  For those unfamiliar with the novel – a group whom I greatly envy – it should be explained that the plot centers about the efforts of Lambert Strether, the protagonist, to reclaim Chad Newsome from living an idle and extravagant life in Paris back to the family business firm in Woollett, Massachusetts.  Chad is the son of Mrs. Newsome, a wealthy widow with whom Strether has a relationship that falls just short of an official engagement.  Mrs. Newsome makes it clear to him that they will marry only if Strether is successful in his mission to retrieve her son.  Within the course of the first few chapters I found myself scratching my head as to how she could imagine he would be capable of it.  He is so hesitant and timid in anything he undertakes, or even in anything that he says, that I began to wonder whether he would be capable of tying his shoelaces without assistance.

To continue, however:  In the course of his inquiries, Strether comes to find that Chad is currently associated with two French ladies, Mme. de Vionnet and her daughter Jeanne.  At first glance Chad seems to be on the verge of becoming engaged to Jeanne, but it soon becomes clear that he in fact is involved with the mother.  However, Strether is assured by one of Chad’s friends that this relationship is “a virtuous attachment”; and, implausible as this claim is, Strether desperately wants to believe it.  He is, as James makes clear (and I will admit that the portrayal of this aspect is one of the strengths of the novel), a deeply traumatized man.  He has lost his wife after a few years of marriage, and, unable to cope with being a single parent, has sent his young son to a boarding school, where the latter has contracted a fatal attack of diphtheria.  His professional career has floundered as well.  At the age of fifty-five, he is nothing more than the editor of a provincial review, which is barely kept afloat by Mrs. Newsome’s financial support.  It is no wonder that he wants to flee from his hometown and, as he begins to realize, from his prospective marriage as well.  When he comes to Paris he is dazzled by its variety and joie de vivre, and he quickly finds himself hoping that Chad’s defection from the plodding American businessman’s lifestyle is justified.

However, the introduction of Jeanne de Vionnet invalidates the entire premise of the novel.  It is possible, I suppose, to argue that the influence of a sophisticated older woman can be thoroughly beneficial for a young man, and in particular for a provincial youth reared in a restrictive Calvinist small town.  It follows that Mme. de Vionnet’s influence over Chad is more wholesome than his mother’s and by extension that – and this is the main theme of the novel – the apparently corrupt European tradition she represents is superior to the hard-and-fast straitlaced American morality that goes hand-in-hand with rampant commercialism.  It is an appealing theme, one that can provoke a great deal of debate on either side of the matter. 

There can be no argument, however, that it is preferable to be a child of Mrs. Newsome than a child of Mme. de Vionnet.  The influence of Woollett may be stifling and rigid, but Mrs. Newsome herself does not appear unduly tyrannical.  Chad is allowed a fair amount of freedom and plenty of money when he travels abroad.  He can have his fling, without too many questions being asked, and afterwards he can come back to be welcomed with open arms.  Sarah Pocock, his sister, comes into the novel later and she proves to be a raucous harridan; but that is much better, on any count, than being the spineless doormat that is Jeanne de Vionnet. 

This unfortunate young woman is deeply to be pitied, for two reasons.  First, she is shamelessly used by her mother and her mother’s lover as a screen for their liaison; and second, she is peremptorily married off, without having the least say in the matter, to a certain M. de Montbron, a man of whom we know nothing except that he has an extremely eligible income.  Mme. de Vionnet herself has been married off in the same way to her husband.  The marriage has not turned out well and the two have been living apart for years, but that does not prevent her from treating her daughter as badly as her own family treated her.  The odd thing is that James, in other novels, shows some degree of awareness of how misguided a system this was.  “The Awkward Age,” a novel written just four years earlier, contains the characterization of Little Aggie, whose chocolate-box style of prettiness appears to correspond with her apparently sweet and submissive nature.  The moment she is married off to a wealthy commoner, she promptly flings aside all restraint, cuckolds her husband, takes her own aunt’s lover for herself, and becomes a loud-mouthed chatterbox speaking nothing but the empty social jargon typical of her set. 

When Sarah Pocock, therefore, succeeds in doing what Strether signally fails to do – that is, persuading Chad to dump Mme. de Vionnet and return to the U.S. – I cannot feel the regret that James evidently intends me to feel.  I think that Chad has been embarked on very murky waters indeed, and that, in disentangling himself from Mme. de Vionnet and her dysfunctional family, he has had a lucky escape.

James could have made a stronger case for his theme if he had allowed Strether to link himself with Maria Gostrey, a clever and charming woman who is kind to him.  She is, in her own way, as sophisticated as Mme. de Vionnet, but without any of the latter’s turpitude (it’s a harsh word to apply to her, but I do not look kindly upon parents who abuse their children), and thus is a better-qualified representative of the beneficial European influence.  But Strether in the end will have nothing to do with her.  She is not a glamorous woman, and for that reason alone he rejects the love that she offers him.   In other words, he is every bit as superficial as the compatriots whom he condemns.

I have concentrated primarily on the thematic failings of the novel, and have said little about the narrative ones.  These, however, are legion.  James writes such clumsy and dreary prose!  Here is a typical sentence, early in the novel when Strether chats with Maria Gostrey for the first time:

“Though he was not shy – which was rather anomalous – Strether gazed about without meeting her eyes; a motion that, in talk, was frequent with him, yet of which his words often seemed not at all the effect.”

The first part may pass as a rather roundabout way of saying that Strether has a mannerism in conversation that makes him seem nervous even when he isn’t.  But, oh, that miserable final clause! –   enough to set any grammarian’s teeth on edge.  The novel is full of broken-backed sentences such as this one.  One is continually halted by the effort to parse the sentences in an attempt to extract some kind of sense out of them. 

Such passages, however, are positively sprightly in comparison with the leaden dialogue.  The sentences spoken by the characters, it is true, are generally less convoluted than the descriptive ones.  But they are equally circuitous.  Maria and Strether at one point discuss the qualifications Americans expect from marriageable young women:

“’I suppose that at Woollett you wanted them – what shall I call it? – blameless.  I mean your young men for your pretty girls.”

“”So did I,’ Strether confessed.  ‘But you strike there a curious fact – the fact that Woollett too accommodates itself to the spirit of the age and the increasing mildness of manners.  Everything changes, and I hold that our situation precisely marks a date.  We should prefer them blameless, but we have to make the best of them as we find them.  Since the spirit of the age and the increasing mildness send them so much more to Paris –‘

“’You’ve to take them back as they come.  When they do come.’”

According to Edith Wharton, Henry James spoke in real life exactly in the manner that Maria and Strether do here, with a seemingly endless stock of circumlocutions and digressions.  But surely no one else has. 

Then there is the lack of specificity, which injures the thematic point of the novel still further.  It is impossible, from the absence of any genuinely evocative passage, to visualize the city whose attractions Strether finds so irresistible.  In this I am not complaining that James makes no set descriptive passages in the style of earlier novelists who at times sounded like tour guides.  When Ford Madox Ford advised Jean Rhys “to introduce some sort of topography of that region [Paris], bit by bit, into her sketches,” she not only refused to follow this advice but “once her attention was called to the matter, she eliminated even such two or three words of descriptive matter as had crept into her work.”  Yet there is no doubt, from the numerous sharp observations of the turns of speech and of types of behavior exhibited by the various characters, that the stories of “The Left Bank” could not take place in any city other than Paris.  In contrast, the “Paris” of “The Ambassadors” could equally well be Cayenne or Yamoussoukro or any other city in which French is the main spoken language.  It is quite a comedown from the author of “The Bostonians,” who was able to give vivid impressions of Boston, New York, and a small Cape Code town, or of “The Aspern Papers,” with its brilliant evocation of Venice.  The enlarged vision Strether receives from his sojourn in this featureless “Paris” is sufficient to make him renounce the security of life in the U.S. forever, but for the reader it is simply a blur.

Why has this work been praised so extravagantly?  It is destitute of the qualities that could endear it to most readers.  Sentences so limp and so tortured as to be positively painful to read, paragraphs that run on for pages, characters who seem more like wraiths than living human beings, attempts at wit that result in tedium, settings that resemble nothing more than the blank wall seen in productions of “Waiting for Godot,” conversations that go round and round because no one seems capable of making a direct statement, let alone a straightforward answer to any question – it is almost like a primer in How Not to Write a Novel. 

I suppose that it is the theme that causes its adherents to overlook the novel’s glaring defects.  The theme is potentially a powerful one.  Capably rendered, it could stand as a thought-provoking challenge to the concept of The American Dream.  But it is too badly executed in this instance for the novel to be of much importance.  Die-hard Jacobites may laud “The Ambassadors” as much as they please, but the remainder of the reading public, as I believe, will continue to give it the cold shoulder.

Today’s statistics as of 10:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 129,454,440; # of deaths worldwide: 2,827,426; # of cases U.S.: 31,166,344; # of deaths; U.S.:  565,256.  

On the Bull Run/Occoquan Trail again – Does facemask wearing apply to the vaccinated? – The millennials compared with the baby boomers – Protestors at Salem, OR – Eric Trump in sorrow – Summer Zervos – Suez Canal unblocked – Tragedy continues in Myanmar – Evening statistics

(A somewhat longer entry than usual, since I was too tired to write one yesterday.)

I was on the Bull Run/Occoquan Trail again today, this time on the southern portion starting from Fountainhead.  I went with the Vigorous Hikers from the southern terminus to Kincheloe Soccer Park, where we had lunch and then turned back.  It was about 16 miles in all, with more than 2450 feet of elevation gain.  We went at a brisk but not a killing pace (about 3 MPH) and the weather couldn’t have been more cooperative:  cloudless sky, no wind, low humidity, temperatures approaching 70 degrees.  “It doesn’t get any better than this,” I remarked to MB as we were striding over the last mile of the hike, and she enthusiastically agreed.  During our return from the soccer field we met several members from the Wanderbirds group, who had started later.  At the trailhead itself we also met GP, the grand old man of hiking (as I call him), along with his wife BH.  I have already mentioned how, despite the fact that he celebrated his 90^th birthday this past December, he is still ascending and descending on the mountain trails.  He is, as he once told me, resigned to the fact that he is slower now than he had been in his prime.  But to remain inactive, to sit at home all day – unthinkable!  If my years prove to be equal to his, I can only hope that my attitude will be as positive.

RB, one of the Wanderbirds members I met on the return, said that she had never been on the trail before.  That remark puzzled me at first, for the Wanderbirds schedule has long featured an annual hike on the Bull Run/Occoquan Trail.  Then the explanation dawned on me:  the longer hike always began at Bull Run Marina and the moderate hike began at Hemlock Overlook, both of them ending at Bull Run Regional Park (the northern terminus).  It was quite reasonable, therefore, that RB had never seen the segment between Fountainhead and Hemlock Overlook.  I was reminded of an incident that occurred during one of the previous Wanderbirds hikes on this trail.  The Wanderbirds always offered the option of completing the entire length of the trail, provided anyone who chose this option could do so without delaying the majority of the hikers as they gathered at the bus awaiting us at the end of the hike.  On one year, when I selected this option, I was the only one who did so – as I thought.  After I got off of the bus I decided to set myself a challenge and try to complete the trail in 4½ hours; the trail at the time was 18 miles in length (it has since been rerouted slightly, and is now somewhat longer).  Shortly after I left the bus, WG decided that she also would attempt this option.  Had I been aware of this in advance, I would have waited for her.  As it was, however, I thought that I was on my own and went on with all due speed to achieve my goal.  She tried to catch up, asking hikers going in the opposite direction if they had encountered me.  I was about 500 yards ahead, was the answer to the first inquiry; I was about 1000 yards ahead, was the answer to the second.  When she asked a third couple whether they had seen me, they responded, “Oh!  You must mean the Man with a Mission.”  I suppose my expression had an appearance of concentration as I pacing ahead.  At that point she gave up and went on in solitude.  So I was quite taken by surprise when I arrived at the bus and was asked whether I had seen her.  Happily, she came in not much later than I did. 

During this hike we discussed among us how the vaccine would impact social matters generally.  BF, who is a surgeon, said that he does not wear a facemask when he sees patients.  His argument is that seeing the doctor’s face instead of a facemask gives his patients more confidence and that, according to the CDC, vaccinated persons cannot transmit the disease to others.  I can understand his position with regard to meeting people on an individual basis; but for my part, I intend to go on wearing a facemask in public places.  I’m not entirely assured that vaccinated people do not transmit the virus, no matter what the CDC might say.  The tests for the vaccines, as far as I can make out, concentrated primarily on how effective they were for ensuring that the severity of the virus if caught would be at so low a level as not to require hospitalization.  Whether or not vaccinated people could unknowingly become infected with the disease and then transmit it to others was at best a secondary consideration.  In any case, people will not obey a mask mandate in which some people are required to wear a mask and others are not.  For that matter, the CDC has expressed concern in the manner that several states have abandoned the mask mandates, with some reason.  In recent days the deceleration of the rate of increase has come to a halt and there has even been a reversing trend; new COVID cases have gone up 15% in the past two weeks.

My impression that matters are more difficult for generations younger than my own has been borne out by a recent report about the status of the older “millennials,” as they are called.  The eldest of these turn 40 this year.  Nearly 60% of them are homeowners, while 28% still rent, and the remaining 12% live with their parents or other family relatives.  Unsurprisingly, homeownership rates among black and Hispanic older millennials lag behind their white counterparts, as do rates among those who don’t have a college degree. Overall, homeownership rates among older millennials are lower than those of earlier generations.  This trend will affect the generations to come as well.  Children of homeowners are more likely to become homeowners themselves; with more people renting, it seems probable that a greater number of their descendants will become renters in turn.  Since rental payments are a good deal more volatile than fixed mortgage payments, we may see a situation thirty or forty years from now in which a large number of senior citizens face unstable conditions that render them uncertain from one year to the next whether they can afford to live in their current residence.  Savings rates, also, are lower among millennials – not because the millennials are reckless spenders, as the stereotype would lead us to believe, but because a significant number of them are saddled with student debt.  About 59% have saved $15,000 or more, and nearly 25% have saved $100,000 or more.  But the net worth of the average American millennial is less than $8,000.  Median household wealth was roughly 25% lower for those ages 20 to 35 in 2016 than it was for the same age group in 2007.  When adjustments for inflation are made, millennials earn 20% less than baby boomers did at their age. 

Antifa is currently holding a mass protest at the state Capitol in Salem, Oregon.  Those who have been driving by reported to police that their vehicles had been damaged by paint-filled balloons, rocks, and other hard objects being thrown at them as they passed.  Some pointed green lasers at the drivers.  About 200 protestors were equipped with riot gear, as well as handguns, bats, and various other weapons as they headed towards the Capitol.  Police issued a warning to the protestors for – try to take a guess.  Violation of gun laws?  Vandalism?  Assault?  Destruction of private property?  No – none of these.  The warning the protestors received was that they were attending an event without a permit.  So, obviously, if you want to smash other people’s cars, brandish handguns in public, and blind people with lasers, make sure that you first obtain permission from the state government for the occasion.

Eric Trump is heartbroken.  There is no reason to doubt it, for he said so himself.  The reason?  Well, long before he became President, Biden had established a pattern of commuting from Washington to Wilmington, Delaware (a trip that takes approximately 75 minutes by train or 2 hours by car) on weekends while serving in the Senate.  He continued this practice when he became Vice-President and now, having commuted to Wilmington three times in the past seven weeks, seems poised to do the same as President.  This circumstance has plunged Eric Trump into a state of existential despair, as he confided to an interviewer from Fox News.  But perhaps he can find solace in the fact that his own father visited a Trump Organization property, on an average, of once every 3.4 days of his four-year term. He went to one of his properties on 240 of the 418 weekend days of his presidency, i.e., 57% of his weekend days. And he played more than 250 rounds of golf in his term, about one round every 5.6 days.

If this circumstance distresses Eric to such a degree, one can imagine his reaction to the news that New York’s highest court ruled that Summer Zervos may be allowed to sue Donald Trump for defamation after he publicly called a liar for her allegations of sexual assault.  Zervos is a former contestant on “The Apprentice” who came forward with such claims during the 2016 presidential campaign.  Her suit could make no headway as long as Trump was a sitting president, but now that he is a private citizen Zervos will undoubtedly be added to the large number of litigants bringing lawsuits against him.

The Ever Given, the ship that clogged the Suez Canal, was unstuck at last yesterday.  The operation required some care. While the Ever Given was stuck, the rising and falling tides put stress on the vessel, which is 400 meters (a quarter mile) long, raising concerns it could crack.  Now other ships are able to pass through the canal again.  But there is a backlog of over 420 vessels waiting to go through at either end, and it will take at least ten days to clear it.  Dozens of others have taken the long alternate route around the Cape of Good Hope at Africa’s southern tip – a 5,000-kilometer (3,100-mile) detour that costs ships hundreds of thousands of dollars in fuel and in other expenses.

The death toll in Myanmar has now surpassed 520.  International pressure against the junta is finally mounting.  Saturday was the bloodiest day, resulting in 141 deaths; but the military has shot down protestors relentlessly on every day that followed.  Suu Kyi remains in detention at an undisclosed location.  Various other nations, including even China, have expressed concern.  The Biden administration has announced that the 2013 Trade and Investment Framework Agreement would remain suspended until democracy is restored.  The UN Security Council will meet tomorrow to discuss the matter and to determine methods of putting more pressure on the military government to restore the Suu Kyi administration that it has overturned.

Yesterday’s statistics as of 9:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  128,202,572; # of deaths worldwide: 803,547; # of cases U.S.: 31,028,438; # of deaths; U.S.:  563,168.  

I join the ranks of the inoculated – The third wave in Europe – Mistrust of the AstraZeneca vaccine – The Sputnik vaccine in Russia and abroad – COVID in Mexico and Brazil – The danger of a third wave in the U.S. – Our varying state regulations – Evening statistics

I received the second dose this morning and am now fully vaccinated.  As before, the process was admirably efficient.  I actually arrived somewhat early, but stations were available and I was directed to one after my appointment was verified.  I felt only the slightest prick when the needle was inserted and nothing more.  After that I sat in the waiting area for the prescribed ten minutes and then departed, clinging to the vaccine card so as to ensure that it would not be lost.  When I returned home the first thing I did was to scan it so that I would have an electronic copy as a backup. 

It is a great relief, although the modification to my behavior will not at first be very apparent.  I still will wear facemasks in public areas indoors and in crowded locations out of doors, such as Burke Lake.  I will feel somewhat easier about activities such as taking public transportation or dining at restaurants; but even so, I don’t plan to do much of either for the present.  I will undertake some travel, but at this point the only international trip planned is one in September for the French Alps – and even that is tentative. 

For it is apparent that the situation is now worse in Europe than it is here.  Nearly every country on the continent is undergoing a “third wave” of the virus, with daily infection rates ranging from 0.05% – 0.1% of the population of various nations.   The number of COVID patients in intensive care units in France has risen by 10% in the past week.  Doctors report that these patients are significantly younger than those who were infected during the first and second waves:  the majority are in the 30-65 year-old range, and many with no underlying conditions.  France has been losing 200-300 people daily, which, in the words of Benjamin Clouzeau, an ICU doctor at Bordeaux Hospital, is “like a plane crashing every day.”

“A few weeks ago, the people dying were very old, and somehow, we accepted that as a society,” he added.  “Now we are down to 200, 300 deaths a day, but it’s not old people dying anymore. These are people who still had 30 or 40 years to live.”

The variants apparently have played a role in the increase, but the main factor appears to be the delayed rollout of the vaccines, which has been considerably slower than ours.  Many countries relied heavily on the AstraZeneca vaccine; and when concerns about its linkage to blood clots halted its distribution, the virus had the opportunity to spread again.  Foreign travel in Europe may well be restricted for many months to come, despite the fact that many European nations depend on tourism as a major source of income. 

Speaking of vaccines, Russia has been exporting its Sputnik V vaccine to countries in Latin America, Africa and Europe to great fanfare.  But there is one country whose inhabitants have been slow in receiving it – namely, Russia.  The amount that was manufactured for domestic demand became seriously reduced after the vaccine’s export to other countries.  As a result, Russia has now made a deal with GL Rapha, a South Korean firm, to make Sputnik V doses and ship them to Russia.  Russia’s vaccination rollout is even slower than that of the EU.  It has vaccinated 4.4% of its population, compared with 10% in the EU and 26% in the U.S. 

Europe is not the only area facing difficulties.  Mexico’s government has acknowledged that the country’s true death toll from the coronavirus pandemic now stands above 321,000, almost 60% more than the official test-confirmed number of 201,429.  If that is correct, it means that Mexico’s death rate from the virus is one of the highest in the world, exceeded only by the Czech Republic and Hungary.  Even this estimate may be too conservative.  The number of excess deaths since the pandemic began is 417,000.  About 70% of these were listed as COVID-related on the death certificates; but experts say COVID may have contributed to many of the other excess deaths because these people couldn’t get treatment for other diseases on account of hospitals being overwhelmed.

Brazil is another country whose hospitals are on the verge of collapse as a result of the pandemic.  It has accounted for about 24% of the COVID-related deaths worldwide over the past two weeks.  The number of daily deaths average 2,400 in the past seven days; the average rate may go as high as 3,000.  Already there have been spikes of daily death counts well over that figure.  This past Friday the death toll was 3,650.  About a third of the deaths are occurring among people under 60.  The number of new infections is as high as 100,000 per day, putting no little strain on the country’s health care system.  Of Brazil’s 26 states plus its federal district, only one or two on any given day have ICU occupancy rates below 80% and more than half are above 90%.  Dr. José Antônio Curiati, a supervisor at Sao Paulo’s Hospital das Clinicas, the biggest hospital complex in Latin America, said that its beds are full, but that patients keep arriving.

It will not do to become too complacent here at home.  Case numbers are still high and, while we have reached a plateau as far as the daily increase of new cases is concerned, that plateau is at a rate of 60,000.  It is not a comforting figure if we are to experience a surge in cases similar that those going on now in Europe.  Many states are easing restrictions on mask-wearing and social distancing.  We have in fact quite a patchwork of virus-related regulations among the various states.  Consider the following:

In Arizona, planners of events with more than 50 people no longer need to seek approval first and all local mask mandates will be phased out (although face-masking is still “encouraged” – whatever that means).  Georgia, also, encourages mask-wearing but falls short of enforcing it.  Florida is no longer imposing fees or penalties on those who don’t follow social distancing practices and mask mandates, thereby rendering these limitations meaningless.  In Idaho the mask-wearing mandate applies only to visits to long-term care facilities.  In Iowa mask-wearing mandates and other restrictions have been lifted completely.  Mississippi has lifted its mask mandate, with the exception of the interiors of school buildings and restaurants.  Missouri, Tennessee, and Texas have lifted all restrictions, although individual localities may apply their own.  In Montana the statewide mask mandate, limits to gatherings (either social or public events), and curfews on restaurant have been lifted entirely.  North Dakota has had no mask mandate since January.  Oklahoma no longer requires masks in state buildings.  South Carolina no longer requires masks for entering state buildings or restaurants, and has no limit on large gatherings. 

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 127,745,079; # of deaths worldwide: 2,795,557; # of cases U.S.: 30,957,520; # of deaths; U.S.:  562,482.  

CERT training – Resumption of in-person religious services – More violence in Myanmar – Traffic jam in the Suez Canal – Hesitancy to accept the vaccine – Evening statistics

CERT training is now complete.  This last day consisted of a simulation of an emergency situation, that of rescuing people from a house battered by tornados.  The instructors said afterwards that we as a class did well   Although allowances must be made for the reluctance of instructors of volunteers to say anything that might sound like discouragement, I was pleased overall with our performance.  To be sure, we forgot certain details of procedure – for instance, instead of referring to the sides of a house as “A”, “B”, “C”, and “D” when reporting, I would talk of the house’s north or east exterior wall (I tend to think with reference to points of the compass).  But we worked together well, without disagreements and meshing our movements together smoothly; we followed instructions from the commander and reported to her all of the information we could glean; we “rescued” nine victims (only mannequins, of course, but some of them were heavy, and were a bit of a challenge to carry down flights of stairs and over uneven terrain) and then tended to them in the triage area.  The greatest reservation I still feel about participating in an actual emergency is that the protective gear we use can interfere with the tasks we perform:  it is not easy, for instance, to write legibly with hands encased in safety gloves, and the safety glasses tend to fog up when they are worn in conjunction with mask covering the nose and mouth.  But the exercise as a whole gave me more confidence that if an emergency does arrive I will be able at least to acquit myself passably.

It is curious to reflect that I was prodded into taking such training on account of the virus.  Several months ago I contacted the city government to inquire about ways of assisting the health care professionals, who at that time (and for many months afterwards) were undergoing great strain.  But the only positions available for volunteers required some degree of medical training.  Eventually, however, they contacted me to suggest this alternative.

During the drive back home I went by a church that posted a notice that it will be holding in-person services for Easter.  At this point Virginia regulations permit in-person religious services, with certain caveats:  congregants must sit six feet apart, they must wear masks, signage must be posted notifying people with COVID symptoms to stay away, and any items used to distribute food or beverages either must be disposable or washed or cleaned between uses between individuals who are not family members.  It is to be hoped that these relaxations are not premature.  But it is understandable that people wish to worship with one another again.  At this time last year when I wandered in the city on Easter Sunday I passed by a church whose priest was performing the Easter service out of doors – the building, of course, having been closed off – with himself as the sole attendee, patiently going through the entire liturgy even though there was no one present physically.  In all probability his dedicated performance of the service was being viewed by church members via Zoom; but it was a melancholy spectacle nonetheless.

Today is Armed Forces Day in Myanmar.  It originated as Resistance Day, commemorating Burmese resistance during the Japanese occupation during World War II.  Usually this annual holiday is a harmless affair celebrated with parades in various cities.  But on this occasion it led to violence and the deaths of dozens of protestors in many cities.  It is not certain how many were killed, but the death toll today could be as much as 114.  This does not include those who have been imprisoned and have met their deaths through torture or execution since the takeover, their number is estimated to exceed 300.  The top U.S. military commander is making a joint statement with other senior military commanders from countries around the world, including in Asia and Europe, condemning the violence and stating that the country’s military has lost credibility with its people.  International pressure has had little observable effect on the junta at this point, but it is possible that its members may be shaken, if only a little, by condemnation from fellow military commanders.

A giant container ship remains stuck sideways in Egypt’s Suez Canal, having been run aground by strong winds.  It has been immobile for five successive days and there is no definite timetable as to when it can be freed.  This incident has far-reaching implications:  at least 10% of the ships involved in maritime trade pass through the Suez Canal, including those carrying a significant percentage of the world’s oil supply.  Shipments of oil to Europe in particular are affected.  At this point 321 ships are haplessly waiting near Port Said on the Mediterranean Sea, Port Suez on the Red Sea, and in the canal system on Egypt’s Great Bitter Lake while authorities continue to make efforts to make the ship mobile again. 

According to a recent poll, about 25% of Americans will refuse to take any of the COVID vaccines.  This unwillingness to become vaccinated falls mainly among party lines,  with 36% of Republicans saying they will avoid the vaccine, compared to just 6% of Democrats.  I, at any rate, am not one of these holdouts:  my second dose is scheduled for tomorrow morning.

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:                 127,260,352; # of deaths worldwide: 2,788,753; # of cases U.S.: 30,916,454; # of deaths; U.S.:  561,997.  

Scouting on the Bull Run/Occoquan Trail/The shifting status of the COVID virus as news/Passover begins/Evening statistics

The Capital Hiking Club wishes to give its hike leaders the opportunity to take to the trails again in case they have remained relatively inactive over the months as a result of the virus-related restrictions; and to that end, it is setting up several training hikes.  The first of these, which I am to lead, goes along the Bull Run/Occoquan Trail.  The series of hikes is intended as a means of ensuring that the hike leaders will be up to the challenge of leading the proposed bus hikes beginning in August. 

The Bull Run/Occoquan Trail is slightly over 18 miles long.  For the most part it parallels Bull Run up to a point not far from where the stream drains into the Occoquan River; and, like many hikes that parallel streams, it goes up and down numerous ridges as a result of the gorges created by the creeks that run into the stream.  The ridges in this case are neither especially high nor precipitous, but there are several of them and the cumulative elevation gain of the entire trail in one direction is over 3000 feet.  Originally the plan was to begin the hike at Bull Run Regional Park, since the trail at the northern terminus has fewer hills, most of them with mild gradients. 

Accordingly I went there at 9:00 AM to scout the hike, anticipating few problems and expecting to end the hike at an early hour, possibly a little after 12:00.  The plan was to go there-and-back for about six miles to the “M” marker.   But the project proved to be unexpectedly difficult.

To begin with, it was extremely muddy.  The trail goes through a floodplain; and since it had rained overnight, there was scarcely a dry spot to be found.  My progress was slowed considerably; and it was extremely irritating to be forced to concentrate on maintaining my balance without slipping or sliding at every step I took.

Then, just under a mile from the starting point, I came across one creek that used to have a wooden footbridge, which was now completely washed out. 

It still would have been possible for me to continue, since my water shoes were in my backpack.  But I could not in conscience lead others to such an impasse and I was forced to investigate alternatives.  I did ask at the park office whether they had any plans to replace the footbridge, but there were none – at least, no immediate ones.  It could happen that a boy scout troop may be in need of a trail project to undertake as part of their training, in which case this matter would be assigned to them.  But obviously, such a contingency was not to be counted upon within the next couple of weeks.

In the end I drove to Hemlock Overlook, where a spur trail about ¾ mile long leads to the main trail at about 7 miles from the trailhead at Bull Run Regional Park.  Here I went on the trail without too much difficulty.  It was considerably drier than the portion of the trail near the park; there were muddy patches, to be sure, but they were negotiable and they occurred at relatively long intervals.  It is a little more challenging than the stretch beginning at the park, with a couple of rock fields and with three stream crossings that use concrete pylons as stepping stones.  But the hike leaders, as I think, should be able to meet challenges such as these.

The trail is noted-known for its abundance of bluebells, which are beginning to appear now and should reach their peak in mid-April (the usual time for this flower).  The area around the stream features many other wildflowers as well, of which great numbers are already in full bloom:  spring beauties, bloodroot, violets.  I once was assigned to lead a hike in this area for the Wanderbirds during a year when spring arrived exceptionally early – considerably earlier even than this year.  My co-leader TJ and I scouted the hike three weeks in advance; and when we did, we found that the bluebells were nearly at their peak.  TJ and I looked at one another in dismay when we saw this.  If the bluebells were at their peak at this point, there surely would be none left three weeks later, when the hike was to take place.  As it happened, we need not have worried:  true, the bluebells were indeed nearly gone on the day that we led the hike, but there were many other flowers in glorious profusion, including the brilliant yellow trout lilies and the deep purple spiderwort.  

The above may appear to be a good deal of space to devote to personal matters, and yet it is in a sense reflective of the national mood as a whole.  The amount of vaccinations that have been administered and the reduction of daily increases in infections and deaths seem have induced not merely a state of optimism, but one that almost might be described as indifference.  Yet the pandemic is far from over.  The incidence of daily case rates and deaths has gone down, but there are still well over 50,000 new cases and 1,000 new deaths every day.  Hospitals are no longer strained to the breaking point and the health care profession is generally less harried now than it has been in the past, but over 7,000,000 cases of the virus are still active.  About 9.3% of the national population has been affected by the coronavirus; that figure could easily become 20% cumulatively by the end of the year if infections continue even at this reduced rate.

But all the same the virus is no longer dominating the headlines.  There are indeed several other matters of interest.  Georgia has passed a new law that initiates changes to Georgia’s elections, including expanding early voting in most counties, requiring identification information for absentee ballots, and restructuring the State Elections Board to have more control over local election offices.  Two noted authors died yesterday:  Beverly Clearly, who wrote more than 40 children’s books, at 104, and Larry McMurtry, author of “Lonesome Dove” and “Terms of Endearment,” at 84.   The veteran actress Jessica Walter died Wednesday at 80.  Major General William Walker has been appointed by Nancy Pelosi as top law enforcement officer for the House of Representatives, the first African-American to occupy the position.  The suspect in the recent massacre at a shopping center in Boulder, where he killed 10 people, is being held in jail without bail while his attorney prepares his defense.  I’m not saying that these matters are unimportant.  But it is strange to see that the virus is no longer taking its place among them. 

Today is the first day of Passover.  Ordinarily this holiday does not involve mass gatherings in the manner of Easter or Ramadan, but it usually is celebrated with gatherings of numerous relatives under a single roof and various ceremonies at synagogues.  Many of the traditional activities have been reduced to virtual ceremonies, like those of last year; but less rigorously.  I myself plan to be with my relatives in New York next week, where we will celebrate the final day of the holiday in conjunction with my aunt’s 90^th birthday.  (We have the excuse that we will all be vaccinated by then.)  Easter will begin on the 4^th, and it will be interesting to see how many churches will revert to in-person services and how many will remain virtual.

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:                 126,673,096; # of deaths worldwide: 2,778,770; # of cases U.S.: 30,848,248; # of deaths; U.S.:  561,070.  

CERT Training – Buzzard Rock, Eagle Point, and Devil’s Elbow – Biden’s first press conference – Evening statistics

I came back from CERT training at 10:00 last night and was too tired to record the events of the day, which, for that matter, were not numerous.  The training itself was interesting.  We practiced search and rescue techniques, including carrying one of the trainers lying supine on a sheet down two flights of stairs.  Considering that it was the first time for most of us, we did reasonably well.  The trainer deliberately kept her eyes closed while she was being lifted and carried, and she said afterwards that she was hardly tilted at all and was unable to tell at any given moment whether she was being carried down the stairs or along flat ground.  It is not easy, in a narrow stairwell, to negotiate a litter with three people holding it up on each side and a seventh person in back to stabilize the victim’s head.  By sheer accident my position was at the end where her feet were resting, which meant that I and one other person were the first to descend the stairs in semi-darkness.  Even though another member of the class was in front to direct us, my experiences in hiking proved to be useful in such a situation, as it made me accustomed to walking on uneven surfaces and to looking downwards periodically in order to maintain my footing.

I can’t say that I feel a great deal of confidence about my abilities to be of use if a disaster should happen to strike the area, but at any rate I now have some idea of the tasks that need to be done and how to go about participating in them.  The final training session will occur on Saturday, when the class will assemble at the “Workhouse” (a former prison facility that has been converted into a group of artists’ studios) in Lorton and undergo a four-hour simulation of an emergency situation to test whether we can effectively put into practice the techniques we’ve been learning this past month.

I went with RS today to explore a route from his new place, which is located behind the foothills that line the Virginia bank of the Potomac River slightly east of Harpers Ferry.  We went up to the ridgeline, where we struck an unofficial trail to Buzzard Rock (not to be confused with the rock formation of the same name in the Massanuttens), a rounded boulder on top of a rock outcropping.  The fog in the morning was too thick to see much there, but when we went on to Eagle Point – where, even though it was also on a trail that is unofficial and sporadically maintained, features a bench for the convenience of the viewers.  The views there are somewhat too far to the east to see a good deal of Harpers Ferry; the view features the town of Sandy Hook on the Maryland bank, the Rte. 340 bridge, and an unnamed islet just east of the bridge.   From there we descended to the river bank, which was difficult:  there were no defined trails and the gradient was very steep.  Once we came to the bank, however, we went on another unofficial trail, but one that has been maintained somewhat more carefully.  We went to Devil’s Elbow, a rock field located at a bend in the river and then back up a few hundred feet to an unnamed overlook not far from the house.  As the description indicates, this hike reached viewpoints and landmarks not accessible by hiking on regular trails.  This meant, of course, that for many portions of the hike we could not go very quickly, particularly when ascending or descending   The distance we covered was perhaps no more than eight miles, but it was a significant exertion nonetheless – well worth the effort, however. 

On account of the hike I returned home too late to see Biden’s first press conference since he took office.  It’s impossible to access it from the reports:  predictably, all of the pro-Democrat sources say that he acquitted himself well and all of the pro-Republican sources say that he did not.  Fox News in particular called him out on what in their estimation is the gravest of shortcomings in a Presidential speaker:  he referred to notes while delivering his answers, thereby contrasting with the famously unscripted responses of his predecessor.  It would seem that Biden wishes to be certain of the facts before replying to a question, but perhaps he can silence such critics by renouncing this pernicious habit and giving hasty, ill-considered answers instead. Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 126,044,068; # of deaths worldwide: 2,766,595; # of cases U.S.: 30,771,687; # of deaths; U.S.:  559,727.  

COVID and the cherry blossom season at the Tidal Basin – A condolence call – Possibility of sedition charges against the besiegers of the Capitol – Sidney Powell’s defense – Evening statistics

The cherry blossoms are coming out, with peak bloom expected to fall between March 26^th and April 12^th.  At this time of year, people ordinarily congregate to the Tidal Basin to view the flowering there.  This year traffic and parking will be limited; and if the crowds become too full to permit social distancing, the park may be closed.  It is a scenario that is only too likely; ordinarily the crowds on weekends during peak season are so densely packed that walking around the perimeter becomes difficult, particularly along the portion where people are compressed within a narrow walkway going across the Kutz Bridge.  One of the advantages I enjoyed when I worked on a project in a building close to the 14^th Street bridge is that I could walk to the Tidal Basin during lunch break on a weekday, when the crowds were much less full.  That was many years ago, of course.  In recent years, after I retired, I would take the Metro on a weekday to the Smithsonian station in order to reach the Tidal Basin, but that option was out of the question last year.  It may be possible for me this year, since I will be fully vaccinated this coming Sunday.  But the matter becomes an academic one if the park is closed altogether.

JK lost his mother a few days ago and I attended the viewing this evening.  He has been undergoing a difficult time, independently of his loss.  He was an exceptionally vigorous hiker, at one point finishing as one of the lead participants for the One Day Hike (an annual event in which hikers go over 100 kilometers of the C&O Canal towpath in a day).  In early days of my own hiking I encountered him in various group hikes and looked on enviously at the ease and speed he went up precipitous ascents.  Eventually I was able to hold my own with him, but I never was as comfortable on the steepest ascents as he was.  In recent years, however, he has slowed down somewhat; and in November he was hospitalized for treatment of blood clots that had somehow migrated to his lungs.  It is unclear how he could have got them:  he has never smoked in his life, is as lean as a greyhound, and has for years obtained an abundance of fresh air and exercise.  He has regained a measure of strength since he was discharged and is able to go over various hills in Prince Georges County, and he hopes to be able to attempt hiking in the mountains again soon. 

At the viewing there was a slide show of various photographs showing his mother on various occasions and family outings.  She lived to be 91 and appears to have led a full life.  Even so, I have no doubt that her passing came as a shock to her children.  It generally happens that way; the parent is quite elderly and in a precarious state of health, the relatives more or less expect to lose him or her soon; and yet they are caught offguard when death actually occurs.  It was that way with my father, who lived to see his 97^th birthday 

New developments have occurred in the aftermath of the January 6^th riot.  Sara Carpenter, a retired police officer who was arrested today for participating in it, said that she went on Trump’s orders.  There is no word as to whether this claim may lead to charges being brought against Trump himself as a result of the investigation after the riot, but at any rate it is possible.  More importantly, Michael Sherwin, the federal prosecutor, has said that at least some of the rioters could be charged with sedition.  I have held that the rioters, or at any rate the ringleaders, should be so charged from the day that I learned about the besiegement of the Capitol, and felt some dismay that so many of them were charged with misdemeanors only; so it is a gratification to discover at last that these charges are being contemplated.

In addition, Sidney Powell has responded to the lawsuit filed against her by Dominion Voting System, by saying that “no reasonable person” would believe that her false conspiracies about the 2020 election were “truly statements of fact.”  She has made this astonishing claim in a court filing no less astonishing, asking a federal judge to dismiss the $1.3 billion defamation suit on that account.  That is to say, she appears to think that people have a right to slander anyone and anything they please, provided that they don’t believe their own lies.  I fear that I am not among the people whom she would consider “reasonable,” although I will strive to moderate my expectations.  I desire merely to see this infamous wretch’s filing dismissed with insulting speed and decision, followed by her being publicly disgraced, impoverished, and debarred as a result of the adjudication of the Dominion Voting Systems lawsuit.  I do not ask for anything more.

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 124,789,223; # of deaths worldwide: 2,745,378; # of cases U.S.: 30,636,243; # of deaths; U.S.:  556,880.  

A winery hike – Prospects for reviving social activity – The lightening of tension as the pandemic begins to recede – Evening statistics

A winery hike is surely one of the most pleasurable ways of enjoying a day of fine weather.  One hikes in the early part of the day, with a sufficient amount of exertion to stimulate the senses and sharpen the appetite while avoiding the dullness that comes with too much fatigue; and afterwards one stops by at a local winery to sip the wine, to dine on various contributions of food from the participants, and to converse at leisure.  My companions were the same three with whom I enjoyed the winery hike we took together in mid-July, along with PF and ML, long-term hiking companions whom I have not seen for months.  We went from Gathland along the Appalachian Trail to the White Rocks overlook and back, about 7 miles in length and about 1000 feet of elevation gain.  From there we drove a few miles to the Big Cork winery in Rohrersville, a beautiful place in the valley on the western side of the mountains, with views on one side of the vineyard on one side and on the other of the range adorned with the fire tower atop Lambs Knoll, just a short distance from the overlook that constituted our turning-point earlier.  We sat at a table on the outdoor terrace and feasted on wine purchased from the management and on viands provided by each of us:  various cheeses, luncheon meats, crackers, vegetable dips, hummus, grapes (of the variety known as “sweet sapphire,” which I had never tasted before, and which are exceptionally sweet and firm-textured), crystallized ginger, chocolate from New Zealand, brownies. 

And we chatted animatedly about several matters, especially about the vaccines.  ML has participated in administering vaccines and she spoke enthusiastically about the increased amount of doses that Northern Virginia now has as its disposal.  At the same time there are certain policies that puzzled us.  It appears that smoking and obesity are regarded as underlying conditions, at any rate in Virginia and North Carolina, so that people who smoke or who are overweight get priority for receiving the vaccine.  In effect they are being rewarded for practicing unhealthy lifestyles.  Quite of a number of people in our circle have obtained one or both doses or are scheduled to receive them, but some have been left out.  LH, for instance, is under 65, has no underlying conditions, and is not in a profession that requires continual encounters with the general public (she works for the Census and currently is doing most of her work online), so she does not qualify for Phase 1A or 1B.  It is possible that Northern Virginia will be able to move on from these two phases next month, but it is not certain.  We spoke also about public matters such as the unresolved issues concerning the AstraZeneca vaccine, the unruly behavior of the college students in the Miami Beach area during spring break, and the crisis of migrants illegally crossing over the border, and also of private matters such as the impending trips to King’s Canyon and to the French Alps (everyone present at the table was scheduled to be on at least one of these) and the possible dates for resuming hikes via a chartered bus for the Capital Hiking and Wanderbirds clubs.  It was a lovely day, just as cloudless as the two previous ones, in the mid-60s, with a cooling breeze; and we were in no hurry to disperse.  We must have spent two hours eating and sipping wine and chatting together. 

Episodes such as these have been very rare indeed over the past year, but it seems likely that they will become more frequent as the vaccine rollout accelerates. Already about one-quarter of the American population has received at least one dose. 

An additional feature of this gathering is that we could discuss the topics in question without the indignation or agitation that would have characterized almost any such discourse a few months earlier.  The new administration has ushered in a calmer mood nationwide.  It’s not that our little group consisted of dedicated Biden partisans by any means:  we were critical, for instance, of the manner in which he has been handling the influx of illegal and underage migrants at the border.  But the rollout of the vaccines has been proceeding, after some initial glitches, smoothly and efficiently.  Without shouting, without posturing, and without elaborate speeches, Biden has been issuing orders with confident authority and with no apparent need to frighten or intimidate anyone, and the work of the reversal of the pandemic is going on quicker and better than it could have done during the chaos of the previous administration.  As the numbers of the inoculated increase, people are in general becoming less jittery, less pre-occupied with news headlines, and more disposed to concentrate on personal affairs.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 124,276,570; # of deaths worldwide: 2,734,784; # of cases U.S.: 30,572,024; # of deaths; U.S.:  555,909.  Slowly our position relative to the other nations of the world is improving.  Today the proportion of national new cases to global ones was 10.4% and the proportion of national deaths to global ones was 8.6% — still on the high side, but much less grossly disproportionate than it has been in earlier months.

Another hike in the ACLT – COVID in the EU – The Kumbh Mela festival – Student break – New developments in Myanmar – Evening statistics

I joined several other hikers with AD and RH in the American Chestnut Land Trust today.  We went along the Prince Frederick to Bay Trail, going there-and-back in both directions.  The overlooks towards the end of the trail are untrammeled by foliage at this time of year and provide a clear view of Parker Creek draining into the Chesapeake Bay.  In contrast to the bare forest within the mountain area, wildflowers are beginning bloom on the ground – bloodroot in particular, with its oval white petals and yellow stamens.  The trail goes over a swamp, where we heard a chorus of frogs peeping; the male frogs, at this time of year, attempt to attract females by the strength and volume of their mating calls.  The hike was about 11 miles and perhaps 1500 feet of elevation gain; although the ACLT is located in the piedmont rather than in the mountains, it has numerous ascents that, while short, can be very steep.  It was another cloudless day, somewhat warmer than yesterday.  The hike was enjoyable but it was marred by an untoward incident:  on the portion of the trail headed towards Prince Frederick, RH slipped and turned his ankle.  At first we were worried that it had been materially injured, but eventually he found that he was able to support his weight on it and that in all probability it was only a sprain.  Nonetheless it was advisable that he walk as little as possible, so he turned back to wait at a gravel road that we had crossed about ¼ mile earlier, while AD and one of the others went back to the parking area to pick up a car and drive to the point where RH was waiting. 

The European nations are undergoing considerable difficulties as a result of the rollout of the vaccines, which has been a good deal less efficient there than here.   Germany is considering an extension of its partial lockdown into April, despite numerous mass protests in several cities.  There have been similar protests in other countries, including the Netherlands, Austria, Bulgaria, and Switzerland.  In Marseille, about 6,500 took part in a carnival parade, openly defying the restrictions that France imposed this weekend.  One consequence of these disturbances is an increased amount of tension between the U.K. and the EU.  AstraZeneca (which is an Anglo-Swedish firm) has delivered only 30% of the amount of doses promised for the first quarter, causing the government in Brussels to accuse the U.K. of operating its own de facto export ban to achieve its vaccine success, a claim furiously denied by the British government. 

India is also facing difficulties.  The Kumbh Mela festival, a huge Hindu religious event held four times every twelve years at four different locations, has been shortened from three months to 30 days.  Nonetheless millions of worshippers are flocking to Haridwar, the location for the festival this year, on a daily basis.  Most of them wear no facemasks and few of them observe social distancing.  Medical authorities are concerned that another super-spreader event may result.  India is already in the midst of its second wave of COVID infections.  In February the number of new daily infections had been reduced to less than 10,000; but currently the average amount is well over three times that amount.

For that matter, we ourselves are undergoing a similar trial, without the excuse of religious fervor to account for lack of restraint:  namely, the annual spring break for our college students.  Miami Beach has imposed a curfew to deal with uncontrollable crowds partying there.  At this point about 13% of the population has been vaccinated, but many seem to be assuming that the pandemic is now completely under control, which is very far from being the case.  Dr. Fauci has urged people to remain cautious and not to risk additional spikes in infections.  “Vaccines are coming on really well,” he said today in a press interview. “If we can just hang on a bit longer, the more people get vaccinated, the less likelihood that there is going to be a surge.”  The number of infected people has been reduced from its peak in January by over 25%, but there are still at least 7,000,000 million who are still active with the virus. 

The situation in Myanmar is worsening.  As the military junta attempts to tighten its grip on power, the Myanmar economy is slowing down with anti-coup strikes, supply chain interruptions, and power outages.  Many areas are now using a barter economy.  Khin Maung Latt, an official in Suu Kyi’s administration who worked as a campaign manager for one of the country’s two Muslim MPs, died last night in custody.  He was badly bruised on the head and body, a fairly clear indication that he had been tortured.  At least 50 people have been killed and over 1,700 are in detention.  Sanctions from various governments outside the nation appear to have had little effect on the junta’s resolution to stay in power.  Regrettably, the only country that could exercise any real influence on it is China.  We are obliged to put some trust in China’s cooperation in the matter, and yet that trust is so woefully misplaced.  A dictatorship in one country is not likely to sympathize with pleas to combat the dictatorship of another.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 123,843,833; # of deaths worldwide: 2,727,284; # of cases U.S.: 30,521,337; # of deaths; U.S.:  555,296.  

The link to the complete journal is:  https://betulacordifolia.com/?order=asc

The first day of spring – Hiking at Big Devils Stairs – The journal’s anniversary – A retrospective – Evening statistics

Today is the first day of spring.  Actually, as I noted earlier, spring has already begun in the DC metro area, at any rate in the lower elevations.  Every day sees new flowers budding and various wildlife creatures emerging from their hibernation.  In the higher elevations, such as the Blue Ridge Mountains, it is a different matter; the landscape is still bare and wintry. 

The hike today I took in Shenandoah National Park with AD and RH went from Little Hogback Overlook along the Appalachian Trail to the Bluff Trail up to its junction with the Marshall Trail, and then backtracked, with a detour down the Big Devils Stairs Trail to the viewpoint that overlooks the gorge of a headwater tributary of the Rush River.  The gorge at this point is so steep that it becomes in essence a slot canyon.  Its cliffs and rock wall consist of metabasalt (a metamorphic form of basalt with the addition of some quartz), and how the river was able to cut through this non-porous hard rock is something of a mystery.  We chose to go to the overlook at this time of year because it is best to attempt it before the foliage emerges, at which point the views of the gorge are obscured.  We lunched at the overlook and then backtracked along the Bluff Trail and Appalachian Trail to the parking area.  The hike was about 13 miles, with 2370 feet of elevation gain, but for the most part the ascents were gradual.  There were eight of us in all, plus two others who did a modified version of the hike, taking the Bluff Trail to the Big Devils Stairs Trail, the Big Devils Trail to the overlook, and then backtracking to the parking area; even that modified hike is at least 8 miles.  It was quite cold in the morning when we began, but it warmed up quickly, without a cloud in the sky.  It was a splendid group hike and, like everything that AD and RH superintend, thoroughly well-organized.

This day has another significance for me.  One year ago today I began writing this journal, anticipating that the virus would have a significant impact on the days to come and desiring to have some sort of record so that after the crisis ended and matters returned back to normal I could look upon these notes and say, “Yes, this is how things were during that time.” 

Some sort of retrospective seems in order.  There will be a kind of mirror-imaging in this entry.  My first entry began with a summation of the events leading up to the present and mused on how privations would increase in the future, noting the inroads that the pandemic had already made in our daily lives.  As I sum up the overall effect of the past year, today I concentrate on how the privations have been lifted and on the likelihood of our returning to normalcy soon.  And, as is appropriate for someone of my preferences, both entries contain a hike description.

I have already noted that grocery shopping (always a factor of importance in any long-term emergency) is almost completely restored to normal.  The only sign seen now from the impact of COVID is the wearing of facemasks by employees and customers alike.  No items are missing from the shelves, and people are no longer hoarding.  Bread-making activity, in all probability, has become less frequent; and yeast, which for several months was one of the most difficult items to obtain, is now available not only in individual packets but in 4-ounce jars. 

Personal health has remained unaffected, chiefly, as I believe, because I have managed to keep active during the entire period of the pandemic.  In this of course I have had certain advantages.  Unlike several countries in Europe, the U.S. never imposed any restrictions on how far one could venture out of doors for exercise.  Consequently I was able to extend my hiking over a fairly wide range, ultimately being able to traverse, in stages, the entire northern portion of the Appalachian Trail in Pennsylvania, journeying to trailheads well over a four-hour drive from my house. 

We are still wearing facemasks while walking out of doors along the streets.  In parts of the country facemasks out of doors have been abandoned altogether, and there are signs that, as a greater number of people become vaccinated, the same practice will prevail here.  The trends that have forced people to lead more isolated lives are beginning to relax, and it seems likely that social life will begin for move again.  I still keep a facemask in the car whenever I drive, even if my destination is a lonely trailhead.  It is always a possibility that I might encounter an emergency and be forced to enter a store for some unforeseen reason.  Again, if a serviceman is scheduled to show up at my house, I put on a mask before the time he is expected to arrive, so that I don’t have to make a mad dash for one before opening the door whenever he knocks.  Eventually such precautions will no longer be needed, but we are not at that stage yet.

Social life now resembles a tentative budding and germination analogous to the re-emerging plant life of early spring, primarily as a result of the rollout of the vaccines.  For instance, I will be receiving my second dose in a week, after which I will at long last be able to visit my aunt in New York and to properly celebrate her 90^th birthday, which occurred last July.  The cousin who lives in Chile is planning to visit her mother in May.  I will be able to visit the homes of people who have been vaccinated and be able to receive inoculated people in my own home.  I have already related how the Capital Hiking Club is planning to resume its hikes in a chartered bus, beginning in August.  The Wanderbirds will probably follow suit, although perhaps beginning hikes with bus rides at a later date. 

Entertainment is still in abeyance.  Some theaters and concert halls are attempting to obtain revenue through streaming performances.  I sympathize with their attempts, but I’m afraid that these are a poor substitute for live performances.  A few Broadway theaters are planning to open for various events next month, but no live productions are currently projected before autumn.  This means that everyone who obtains his or her livelihood through live performance will have been out of work for a year and a half, and how they will be able to sustain themselves over such a period I do not know.

Travel, on the other hand, is beginning to revive.  My projected visit to my aunt, as well as another trip planned in April to the Midwest, are typical of the plans of many who have received their vaccine and feel at liberty to move about after the danger of contracting the virus has become less acute.  The CDC, it is true, has recommended to hold back on travel for the time being.  But it seems likely that such recommendations will have little effect.  People are tired of being nailed down to a single location for months on end; and, with the protection that inoculation confers, the dangers of traveling seem less pressing.  At this point traveling for pleasure is mainly limited within the confines of the country.  But it is possible, even probable, that international travel will become feasible as well in the course of a few months.  Already I have two trips planned with a group of hiking friends:  one, in June, to King’s Canyon and Sequoia National Park, and the second, in September, to the French Alps.

Of course from a national point of view the two main events of the past year were the pandemic with its attendant ravages and the debacle of the national election – and the two are closely intertwined.  Had Donald Trump displayed the slightest sense of responsibility when the pandemic struck and had he encouraged the country to rally behind him in confronting it, he would have had a very good chance of winning the presidential election, in which case the sorry spectacle of his attempting a coup d’état by means of incessant lawsuits and the subsequent besiegement of the Capitol would never have taken place.  A leader who exerts a reassuring presence in the midst of a long-term national crisis is almost certain to secure the support of the electorate.  Even in the case of people whose mindsets are similar to my own – I would still have detested him for his blatant corruption, his nepotism, and his disastrous co-opting of various national agencies; I would still have voted for his opponent no matter who that opponent may have been – but I would not regard him, as I do now, as the president who presided over the most calamitous administration in the history of the nation.  (That dubious distinction would have been awarded instead either to James Buchanan or Woodrow Wilson.)   He would have gone down in history merely as a bad president, but not necessarily one of the worst.

Instead, for some inexplicable reason, from the onset he looked upon the entire pandemic crisis as a conspiracy to discredit him and hindered the efforts of everyone who had the appropriate medical knowledge or administrative powers to prevent the virus from spreading.  The steady decline in the number of COVID infections and deaths that we are currently experiencing cannot be credited to him; the merit of that belongs to Biden, who aggressively promoted the vaccines and supplied the states with resources to roll them out as rapidly as possible.  We still account for nearly 25% of all COVID infections worldwide and over 20% of all COVID-related deaths, although our population is a mere 4% of the population of the world; and this sorry result is the direct consequence of the misguided policies of Trump’s pitifully inept response to the pandemic when it first appeared.

At this point, incidentally, Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort has closed its dining room and suspended beach club services to guests due to a COVID-19 outbreak among  its staff.  “The mills of the gods grind slowly, but they grind exceedingly small.”

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 123,409,813; # of deaths worldwide: 2,721,187; # of cases U.S.: 30,479,489; # of deaths; U.S.:  554,859.  

The link to the complete journal is:  https://betulacordifolia.com/?order=asc

Volcanic eruption in Iceland – New CDC guidelines for schools – The Capital Hiking Club makes tentative plans – Evening statistics

A long-dormant volcano has erupted about 20 miles away from Reykjavik.  No evacuations are anticipated, since the nearest road is at least 1½ miles from the lava flow, but airplane was disrupted for temporarily on account of the ashes limiting visibility.  The volcano is on the Reykjanes peninsula, where unusual seismic activity has been detected for the past week.  No volcano in this range has erupted for over 800 years and Fagradalsfjall, the mountain in question, has been dormant for 6,000 years.  The lava flow is not expected to affect residents (although they have been cautioned not to travel closer to the area for viewing purposes) but in some neighborhoods closest to the eruption homeowners have been urged to close their windows in case fumes waft through. 

The CDC has relaxed its guidelines for schools, saying that students may now sit 3 feet apart from one another instead of 6 feet.  This recommendation will certainly make matters easier for schools from an administrative point of view.  The 6-foot standard used up to now has forced some schools to remove desks, stagger scheduling, and take other steps to keep children away from one another.  Many schools had already quietly disregarded the CDC guidelines long before this new standard was announced.  The CDC said 6 feet of distance should still be maintained in common areas, such as school lobbies, and when masks can’t be worn, such as when eating.  Students are still to be spaced 6 feet apart in events such as chorus practices, assemblies, and school sports , where many are singing, talking, or cheering simultaneously. 

In general, restrictions are beginning to lighten and people are looking forward to greater freedom of movement.  The Capital Hiking Club board had a meeting today (via Zoom), in which we discussed the possibility of resuming group hikes using  its chartered bus.  The tentative date for beginning these hikes is August 7^th.  Probably the number of people allowed on the bus would be well below its full capacity at first.  Riders would be required to be vaccinated beforehand and would wear masks during the bus trips.  No eating or drinking on the bus would be allowed.  As Director of Trails, I will be setting up a schedule of hikes for a three-month period up to November 6^th.  It is quite possible that the estimate of the date we can resume activity is over-optimistic and that the hikes in any schedule I devise will have to be moved forward for a number of weeks, but at any rate we now have a definite goal to strive for.  I will have a fairly free hand, since the club has not done any of its standard hikes for well over a year and there is no danger of repeating recent hikes.  The board decided that the hikes in this three-month period should be selected from the easier hikes because many in the group have not had much opportunity to get outside during the pandemic and may be out of condition.  In addition, I was asked to use hikes that will not entail a long ride to the trailhead.  But these conditions still leave a wide range of hikes to choose from and I should be able to set one up fairly easily.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 122,866,956; # of deaths worldwide: 2,712,449; # of cases U.S.: 30,423,624; # of deaths; U.S.:  553,931.  

A leisurely day – The migrants at the Mexican border – A killer’s apologist – Another bit of Trumpery – Yo-Yo Ma performs – Evening statistics

I was involved in several errands yesterday, as well as CERT training that ended at about 10:00 PM, so I had little time to follow the news.  Today was somewhat more leisurely, with no pressing errands and with extremely wet weather that discouraged outside activity.  Nonetheless I went out for a time:  walking in the rain when there is little wind and when one is equipped with an effective rain jacket, is not unpleasant.  The air was fresh and cool, but not chilly, and at times it seemed as if leaves and flowers were unfurling before my eyes.  The cherry trees are beginning to blossom and I have no doubt that in DC itself (which tends to be slightly warmer than its suburbs) they are already flowering.

The most pressing news of today is the number of illegal migrants coming over the border with Mexico.  Many of these are minors unaccompanied by parents or older relatives.  Biden has been slow in reacting to this matter and he has even imposed an unofficial gag order upon the Border Patrol as to the amount of information it can disclose to the media.  This response is unfortunate, for it is giving the Republicans fuel for their campaign to discredit him and to promote the Trump faction.  Already Biden’s approval rating has gone down as a result of his irresolution in dealing with the issue.  Several news outlets refer to those opposed to admitting the migrants as the “anti-immigration” party, but the label is an over-simplification.  One doesn’t have to be an opponent of immigration or a white supremacist to be concerned that a large number of people are entering the country without documentation of any kind.  And the dilatoriness of the administration in confronting this influx seems all but suicidal in light of the fact that we are in the midst of recovering from a pandemic.  The good effects of the aggressive policy of vaccination could be completely undone if thousands of people, almost certainly unvaccinated and all of them fleeing from a country whose medical care system is saturated with COVID cases (there are stories in Mexico of oxygen canisters being stolen from deliveries to hospitals, sometimes at gunpoint), enter the country without any sort of tracking.

From a passage in Jane Austen’s Pride and Prejudice concerning the attempt of Mrs. Philips, the sister of Mrs. Bennet, to assist the Bennet family when the youngest daughter elopes with the villainous Mr. Wickham:  she “visited them frequently, and always, as she said, with the idea of cheering and heartening them up, though as she never came without reporting some fresh instance of Wickham’s extravagance or irregularity, she seldom went away without leaving them more dispirited than she found them.”

The Atlanta police have recently been offering consolation in the style of Mrs. Philips.  Earlier this week Robert Long went on a shooting spree at three separate spas in the Atlanta area and killed eight people, the majority of whom were Asian women.  At a press conference Captain Jay Baker solemnly announced that the killings were motivated by the suspect’s sexual addiction rather than racial bias – as if that made any difference to the people who were killed or to their relatives – and rounded off this judicious assessment by saying that Long was having “a bad day.”  It isn’t exactly the same thing, I suppose, but it does appear to me that the eight people whom he slaughtered had undergone a little reverse in fortunes as well.

Donald Trump has proclaimed that the justices of the Supreme Court should be “ashamed” of not having ratified his claims that the presidential election was stolen from him. However, It seems that his influence has been waning since the day he stepped out of the Oval Office.  It could be, of course, that behind closed doors the Supreme Court justices are bewailing their error in sackcloth and ashes; but, externally at least, they appear to have suffered this rebuke with unruffled composure.  For that matter, in more than 60 post-election lawsuits, a total of 86 judges—including 38 Republican appointees and eight chosen by Trump himself—rejected all of the election challenges. Not a single Trump appointee on any court voted to support his fraud claims, not even the three whom Trump appointed to the Supreme Court.

Another regional area is undergoing a lockdown as a result of the suspension of the AstraZeneca vaccine and a growing number of cases.  Paris is now in the grip of a third wave of infections, with an incidence rate of 400 in every 100,000 inhabitants (well over 85000 total in the greater metro area and 43000 in the city alone).  President Macron has imposed a month-long lockdown in the area and in some arrondissements to the north of the city.  Barbers, clothing stores, and furniture shops are directed to close, although bookstores and others selling essential goods can stay open.  Schools will stay open and people will be allowed to exercise outdoors within a 10 km (6.2 miles) radius of their homes. Travel out of the worst-hit areas will not be permitted without a compelling reason.  At this point France will not undergo a nation-wide lockdown, although that measure has not been ruled out for the future.  But the current lockdown is far-ranging in its own right:  the greater metro area of Paris accounts for a fifth of the nation’s population and 30% of its economic activity.

In the midst of all of these stories of distress or chicanery, there is a more pleasant scene to dwell upon.  Those who received their vaccines today at the Berkshire Community College field house in Pittsfield, Massachusetts, were treated to an impromptu concert in the room where the post-vaccination waiting period was held.  The famed cellist Yo-Yo Ma brought his instrument with him and as he waited he played Schubert’s “Ave Maria” to his delighted listeners.  I met him many years ago, when my mother and her friend Eva Hornyak were running the University Community Concert series.  He was a promising young newcomer at the time (Eva Hornyak was the sister of Isaac Stern, the celebrated violinist, so she had extensive contacts in the musical community, and in addition was very shrewd in spotting upcoming young talent), but even during his earliest years his supreme musical gifts were apparent to the dullest comprehension.  And his personality, then as now, was modest and unassuming; it was a great pleasure to meet with him on a purely social level, independently of his music.

Yesterday’s statistics as of 10:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  121,805,497; # of deaths worldwide: 2,691,832; # of cases U.S.: 30,294,798; # of deaths; U.S.:  550,649.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 122,351,719; # of deaths worldwide: 2,702,255; # of cases U.S.: 30,357,206; # of deaths; U.S.:  552,303.  As a result of the third wave of the virus in the European Union nations and our own decelerating incidence rate, the U.S. has gone down on the list of nations with the highest death rates; it is now twelfth on the list instead of the tenth, as it was formerly. 

Hiking on Leading Ridge – The pandemic beginning to retreat as vaccinations increase – Controversy about the Astra-Zeneca vaccine – Evening statistics

Leading Ridge is the steepest ascent in Shenandoah National Park.  The ridge on which the trail rises meets the main ridgeline at a rather curious angle, but it is doubtful that hikers attempt the trail for viewing this configuration, particularly as there are no views at the summit.  The difficulty is the main attraction.  The trail ascends nearly 1700 feet in less than a mile, with an average grade of 31%.  In the past access to the trail was not always certain; one must pass through private property to reach the trailhead.  But in recent years the PATC has acquired an easement, and now the route to the trailhead is clearly indicated by a sign with the trail name (and also a warning not to stray from the trail onto private land) and by blazes. 

Only four of us from the Vigorous Hikers attempted it today.  The weather report in earlier days was somewhat discouraging, at times predicting a wintry mix of sleet and rain, as well as temperatures well below freezing.  But the reports this morning were less daunting and as matters turned out, we had no rain at all and temperatures in the mid-40s.  It was just as well that there were few participants; parking at the area where the trailhead can be reached is very limited.  The weather report must have discouraged others besides members of our own group, for we saw nobody on the trails at all.  To be sure, not many attempt Leading Ridge.  But we proceeded from there to complete a loop using the Hannah Run and Nicholson Hollow Trails, both of which are frequently used under more promising conditions.  The complete hike was 16 miles and somewhat over 4300 feet of ascent.  However, the ascents that we did after we completed Leading Ridge were much less arduous.  We finally descended along the Crusher Ridge Trail, which offered good views of the valley below through the trees.  This is one advantage of hiking in the winter:  when the leaves will unfurl later in the season, such views are obscured entirely.  Indeed, the hike was extremely enjoyable, despite the overcast skies and damp atmosphere.  Much of the hike along Hannah Run, Nicholson Hollow, and Crusher Ridge Trails took place alongside mountain brooks, the sound of whose gentle plashing is unusually soothing. 

There is more news about the vaccines, most of it reassuring.  More than 22 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines will be distributed in the next seven days, a new high that would send the daily average over 3 million vaccinations for the first time.  Mississippi, Alaska, and Arizona have now opened up vaccine eligibility for all state residents.  Over 110 million doses have already been administered, a significant amount for a country with a population of 332 million people.  The vaccines are starting to have an effect.  The seven-day rolling average for daily new cases in the U.S. decreased over the past two weeks from 67,570 on March 1 to 55,332 yesterday, while the average for daily deaths on those same dates dropped from 1,991 to 1,356. 

The controversy about the Astra-Zeneca vaccine, however, has slowed down the decline in cases and deaths in Europe.  It must be admitted that the nations who have placed this particular vaccine on hold have some cause.  Their reservations stem from the fact that a small number of people have developed blood clots after taking the vaccine.  The proponents of the vaccine claim that studies have shown no correlation between blood clots and the vaccine, and that the clots must therefore have been caused by something else.  But none of them have directly addressed the issue of what could have caused them.  Did the people who developed them have underlying conditions?  And why haven’t we seen such cases among recipients of the other vaccines?  Not only do these questions remain unanswered, but no one has even bothered to ask them.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  121,214,690; # of deaths worldwide: 2,681,564; # of cases U.S.: 30,189,911; # of deaths; U.S.:  549,195.

The advancing season – Unexpected benefits of the Pfizer vaccine – Lockdown in Norway – Problems with the AstraZeneca vaccine – Vaccine rollout in Brazil – Evening statistics

The temperatures are somewhat more seasonal today – but still in the mid 40s, which is not particularly chilly for the last week of winter.  Spring continues apace.  Magnolias are starting to bud and a few daffodils are in full flower.  The crocuses are already beginning to droop; theirs is a brief bloom.  Hyacinths are beginning to shoot up in my garden.  The surface serenity is to some extent reflected by the national headlines, which for the past several days have contained relatively little scandal or violence.  International news, as will be seen, is another matter.

There are promising reports of the Pfizer vaccine.  Even a single dose is 71.4% effective in preventing hospitalizations from the virus, so as I pass into the second week after receiving the vaccine my chances of getting severely ill from the COVID virus have been significantly reduced.  Also, the Israeli Ministry of Health confirmed that the Pfizer vaccine is effective in preventing inoculated persons from spreading the disease, even when they are asymptomatic.  That has always been a concern of mine:  that I might contract the disease without knowing it and then transmit the virus to my mother’s assisted living facility during a visit.  I can feel easier about my visits there now.   The vaccine has another characteristic which, however, does not affect me directly:  it may be less effective with obese people. 

Oslo will close all middle and high schools and limit visitors in private homes to two people until early April.  Norway has had a relatively low rate of infection but recently the rate has accelerated and medical experts say that the country is undergoing a third wave of the virus.  Stricter measures will be implemented for 52 municipalities surrounding the capital region, including the closure of non-essential shops and in-restaurant dining, although schools will remain open.

Part of Norway’s difficulties result from issues connected with the AstraZeneca vaccine.  This vaccine is not used here currently (its manufacturers are expected to apply for authorization in two or three weeks), but it is one of three that are being deployed throughout continental Europe.  Reports have indicated that they have led to dangerous blood clots in some recipients, although the company and European regulators claim that these are not a direct result of the vaccine.  The number of people who developed blood clots is small:  37 reports of blood clots out of more than 17 million people vaccinated in the 27-country European Union and Britain.  Nonetheless many countries have now placed the vaccine on hold, including Denmark, Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway, Iceland, Bulgaria, Germany, France, Italy and Spain.  Outside of the EU, Thailand and Congo are holding off on the AstraZeneca vaccine as well.

Health Minister Eduardo Pazuello said today that Brazil has ordered 100 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine and another 38 million of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, seeking to accelerate the hard-hit country’s lagging immunization campaign.  Only about 4.6% of the national population has received at least one vaccine dose.  Matters have not been helped by President Bolsanaro, who refuses to get vaccinated himself and encourages others to follow his example.  Brazil’s rate of infection is lower than ours, but it is still well over 5% of the population (and this data may be under-reported).  Its hospital system, however, is in much worse condition than ours.  ICU occupancy is above 80% in 21 of Brazil’s 26 states and above 90 % in 14 of these.  There are many reports of patients dying as they wait for beds to become available. 

Martial law has been declared in Yangon, the largest city of Myanmar.  The number of protesters who have been killed by the militia is now approaching 140.  At least 56 died this weekend, including 34 in the Yangon region.  The escalating violence has actually elicited a complaint from the Chinese Embassy – against the protesters.  In the course of the protests several factories for the garment industry, which is a major exporter for Myanmar, were torched by unknown perpetrators.  The majority of these factories are Chinese-run, so the concern of the Chinese ambassadors is understandable.  Property owned by their countrymen must be preserved at all costs; the fact that several dozen people are being slaughtered in as a result of a military coup is an accident for which they are not accountable. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:                 120,747,285; # of deaths worldwide: 2,671,183; # of cases U.S.: 30,135,857; # of deaths; U.S.:  547,963.  Even though the figures are still much too high, it is a pleasure to record the fact we have had less than 1,000 deaths per day for several days running.  Just a couple of months ago 3,000 deaths per day was not uncommon.  And we are accounting now for 13.5% of the new COVID cases and 12.3% of the deaths worldwide; our rates with respect to the world’s nations has been nearly halved.

On the Ridge to River Trail – Vaccination in Maryland and Virginia – Facemasks in Texas – Evening statistics

I met with AD and RH again today, along with three other hikers.  We started at the Cold Spring battlefield, taking the Ridge to River Trail to the junction with the Appalachian Trail.  On the AT we first did a there-and-back south to the Crescent Rock overlook and another one north to the sign designating the beginning of the “Roller Coaster”:  a 13.5-mile segment of the AT with many tightly-packed ascents and descents.  The Ridge to River Trail is about four miles each way and our two round trips on the AT added about 3 miles more, with a total of about 1900 feet of elevation gain.  The view from Crescent Rock looks down into the Shenandoah Valley, with a mixture of woods and cultivated fields.  Signal Knob, the outpost where the Confederate army conveyed information via semaphores to outposts further north, can be seen in the distance, at the end of the ridge in the background.  I have been on this part of the AT many times in the past, but I had never seen (or heard of, for that matter) either the Cold Spring battlefield or the Ridge to River Trail before.  We had a splendid day, somewhat warmer even than yesterday, but feeling less so on account of a steady breeze throughout most of the hike.  The wind accelerated later in the afternoon; during the drive back home one gust was strong enough to cause my car to swerve briefly. 

We conversed on several matters, especially during lunch and back at the cars when we ate snacks together:  the criteria used for determining security classifications of government data, the effect of obesity among our population upon national health, the tendency of physicians to be over-eager in prescribing novel medications and the meekness of patients in swallowing them (my companions even expressed a little surprise when I told them that my first response, whenever I am advised to take any medication, is:  “What are the potential side effects?”), and, above all, the rollout of the vaccines.  Maryland is currently in Phase 1C, which extends to adults age 65-74 and essential workers in lab services, agriculture, manufacturing, and the postal service.   Phase 2 will vaccinate people with underlying conditions who are aged 16-64, but the general populace will not be serviced until Phase 3 begins.  The phase definitions in Virginia are slightly different, but the essential situation is similar:  Virginians under the age of 65 and with no particular health issues must wait an indefinite period before they will be able to register for the vaccination.  However, Dr. Danny Avula, the coordinator of Virginia’s COVID-19 vaccine program, recently announced that the state will have no difficulty in meeting Biden’s call to make the vaccine available to people in all categories by May 1^st.  For both Maryland and Virginia, nearly 22% of the state population has received their first dose and well over 11% are fully vaccinated. 

Governor Abbott’s decision to end the mandate to wear face masks in Texas is already leading to confusion.  Although the mandate is lifted for the state, businesses still have the right to enforce their own facemask requirement on their property, and many have elected to keep such a requirement in place.  On Thursday Terry Lynn Wright entered a Bank of America in Galveston without a mask and refused to don one when requested by the bank management.  She was then asked to leave the building and refused this request as well.  The bank then called in the police – the first time that police have been called to intervene since the statewide mandate was lifted.  Ms. Wright, offended by this affront to her pride, proceeded to make a public display of herself that a better pride would have been ashamed to own.  The policeman told her to wear the mask in compliance with the rules of the bank management or to leave the building.  When she refused to do either, the officer took out handcuffs, at which point she pulled away and began to walk toward the door. The officer stopped her and forced her to the ground.  While being handcuffed, she complained that her foot was injured.  She was treated for minor injuries at a local hospital and then discharged, and was promptly arrested for criminal trespassing and resisting arrest.  Wright is certainly not unique in this queer type of stupidity with regard to facemasks, examples of which have been cited in several earlier journal entries; but Abbott’s decision to lift the mandate simply encourages this type of irresponsible behavior. Such an episode will not be unique; it is the first in what will surely be a long series of similar incidents.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  120,401,660; # of deaths worldwide: 2,664,662; # of cases U.S.: 30,081,296; # of deaths; U.S.:  547,220. 

Hiking on the Rocky Branch and Neighbor Mountain Trails – The status of COVID hospitalizations and deaths locally – Rudy Giuliani wins new nominations, but not the kind he desires – Evening statistics

The hike on which I accompanied AD and RH today was somewhat more well-defined than the one I attempted on Tuesday.  We started from Beahm’s Gap, first going down the Rocky Branch Trail to the end of the park and then backtracking and going to the junction with the Hull School Trail at the other end.  From there we ascended to the Byrd’s Nest shelter, where we had lunch, and continued along Neighbor Mountain Trail to the mountain summit.  Then we backtracked again to the junction with the Appalachian Trail and went a little over a mile on the AT back to Beahm’s Gap:  about 12 miles and 2700 feet of elevation gain.  The weather was perfect:  in the high fifties, with no wind or rain, not cold enough to chill and not warm enough to make one perspire overmuch on the steeper ascents.  I have not been on the Rocky Branch Trail for years, and even the Neighbor Mountain Trail was last visited three or four years ago, so these were practically like new trails for me.  And I don’t believe that I’ve ever been on the Neighbor Mountain Trail at this time of year.  When the foliage has not yet appeared, there are glimpses of the valley below on both sides of the trail.  The Rocky Branch Trail has fewer views to offer, but it skirts by an old cemetery (there are several of these in Shenandoah National Park, which was farmland at one time) and towards its terminus at the park boundary, where it borders private property, it features a pond that the landowner’s cattle use as a watering hole.  We were a group of six in all, and we went at a fairly good pace.  We left after 9:00 and returned well before 2:00.  At the summit of Neighbor Mountain we met two others who arrived at Beahm’s Gap rather later than we did and who took a modified version of the hike, going up Neighbor Mountain but omitting the there-and-back on the Rocky Branch Trail.  And of course, good Wanderbirds that we are, we concluded by drinking and snacking and conversing comfortably together.  How much these casual gatherings out of doors have sustained me over the past several months!  The tone of this journal would have been much gloomier without them.

The numbers for COVID hospitalizations in DC, Maryland, and Virginia have been declining, although we’re not out of the woods yet.  Maryland had 1,101 new cases today, the first time it has had more than 1,000 in a day since February 19^th.  However, the increase in hospitalizations (about 50) is still relatively low.  Virginia had more than 900 new cases today, but the weekly case average had decreased by 96.  DC reported 150 new coronavirus cases today, with two new deaths. This month, hospitalizations have dipped to 150 several times, which previously hadn’t been noted since November. In general, our region has fared better than the national average.  Maryland, Virginia, and DC rank, respectively, 44^th, 42^nd, and 45^th among states in infection rate and 32^nd, 37^th, and 28^th in mortality rate.  Probably DC would have fared even better if so many super-spreader events had not emanated from the White House.

The ultimate fate of Rudy Giuliani with respect to the suit from Dominion Voting Systems – which, if goes against him, could impoverish him for life – remains to be seen; but in the meantime he can console himself for having secured an unexpected new claim to fame.  The Golden Raspberries (affectionately known as “Razzies”) has announced its nominations for the worst film performers of the year, and Giuliani has been awarded two of them, both of which are based in his appearance in the latest Borat film:  first, as Worst Supporter Actor in his role of “Rudy Giuliani as Himself” and second, as Worst Screen Combo, in conjunction with Maria Bakalova, who played the interviewer whom he tried to grope.   In this second contest he is admittedly up against some stiff competition, seeing that the other nominees include “Robert Downey and His Utterly Unconvincing ‘Welsh’ accent” in the remake of Doolittle.  I have confidence, however, that Giuliani will receive the distinction that he fully deserves.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  120,035,427; # of deaths worldwide: 2,658,887; # of cases U.S.: 30,043,499; # of deaths; U.S.:  546,567. 

A quiet day – Don’t walk the roads in South Dakota – The situation in Myanmar worsens – Italy’s new lockdown – Vaccine rollouts – Evening statistics

It was an uneventful day, both at home and on the national front.  A few odds and ends are to be gleaned from the headlines.  The stimulus package has been passed and people should begin receiving checks, perhaps as early as this weekend.  President Biden came out strongly against attacks on Asian-Americans – which perhaps would not be worth remarking upon at all, were it not for the fact that such attacks were rather encouraged under the previous administration, as a follow-up of various xenophobic remarks from you-know-who.  Most of the highlights have been international.

The only exception concerns South Dakota Attorney General Jason Ravnsborg, who struck a pedestrian fatally with his car on the night of September 12^th.  The case has come to court at last, after a five-month investigation, where he pleaded not guilty.  Ravnsborg’s account was that he thought at first that he had struck a deer, and that he had searched the unlit area with a cellphone flashlight and didn’t realize he had killed a man until the following day.  This account would sound more plausible if it were not for the fact that that the man’s face had smashed through the windshield and his glasses had been found in Ravnsborg’s Ford Taurus after the crash.  But the investigation that followed came up with only three misdemeanor charges:  operating a vehicle while using a mobile electronic device, illegal lane change, and careless driving. The maximum penalty for each is 30 days in jail and a $500 fine, meaning he could serve, at most, 90 days behind bars for the crash.  South Dakota, it appears, does not have a negligent homicide law.  Governor Kristi Noem and various law enforcement groups have called for Ravnsborg’s resignation, but up to this point he has refused to step down.  Even if he emerges with no more than misdemeanor charges from the trial, his troubles are by no means at an end; the victim’s widow plans to file a civil suit against him, while South Dakota lawmakers are considering whether he should be impeached after the case concludes, regardless of its outcome. 

There is no word of where Suu Kyi is being held or how she is faring.  The U.S. has been trying to contact her and other officials in the NLD party who are currently in detention, but without success.  Two of them have already been killed.  More than 70 civilians are now dead and at least 2,000 more are in detention.  The U.S. has imposed export sanctions and is urging China to join in pressuring the military government to release its detainees.  The U.S. Secretary of State will be meeting with Chinese officials on the 18^th to discuss various issues and to take steps in thawing the relationship between the two nations; it is unclear whether the situation in Myanmar will be on the agenda.

Italy will be closing shops, restaurants, and schools in Rome and Milan, its most populous regions, as a result of a new surge of COVID infections.  Residents will be required to stay at home except for purposes of work, health, or other essential reasons.  These restrictions will last until Easter, and perhaps beyond.  It sounds extreme, but on the other hand cases have been surging over the past six weeks to the extent of 25,000 new cases per day.  To put that in perspective, the U.S. has lately been seeing about 50,000-70,000 new cases per day, with over five times as much population.  And Italy’s death from the COVID virus is significantly higher than ours, about 3.2%. 

Israel has inoculated more than 50% of its population.  Those who have been vaccinated (both doses) and those who had contracted COVID-19 but have recovered from it are given a “green pass,” which enables them to enter restaurants, gyms, theaters, and other places where people used to congregate in close physical proximity.  Already people are behaving as if the pandemic has been put behind them, dining together in groups and congregating in open air markets – although they are still wearing facemasks.  Israel is well ahead of other countries in this respect.  The United Arab Emirates has the next highest amount of its population inoculated, and plans to see about half its population receive both doses by the end of the month.  The U.K., Chile, Bahrain, and the U.S. are next on the list, with 36, 32, 31, and 29 doses per 100 people respectively.  Chile is aiming for a goal of at least 15 million people receiving at least one dose by the end of June (its total population is about 19 million).  After recording for months on end our nation’s dismal record in coping with the virus, it is a great relief to find that we are actually rolling out the vaccine more efficiently than the majority of other nations.  To my astonishment, we are averaging about three times as many doses per capita than Germany.  Wonders will never cease!

 Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  119,594,324; # of deaths worldwide: 2,650,731; # of cases U.S.: 29,991,077; # of deaths; U.S.:  545,383.  The figures for the U.S. are certainly undergoing a downward trend.  Today Americans accounted for 13.3% of the new cases and 14.6% of the deaths – still disproportionately high, but significantly lower than they were in January. 

What is “normal” body temperature? – Our misaligned social relations – A message of recovery – COVID and obesity – Evening statistics

I omitted in my last entry to mention two moments that stood out during CERT training yesterday.  The first occurred when I had my temperature taken as part of check-in.  The person reading the thermometer was startled by the results when he took my temperature, and he asked me whether I had done a round of vigorous exercise just before coming to the training area.  I had to explain to him that my normal body temperature is typically about a degree below the standard 98.6 degrees. 

I was sufficiently curious to see whether there were others in my situation.  Apparently it is fairly typical; in fact, the 97.5 – 97.7 degree range may be the “new normal.”  The 98.6-degree standard was determined in 1851, at which time a significant number of people suffered from untreated infections such as gum disease, tuberculosis, and syphilis, all of which could have caused persistent fevers.  In addition, temperatures at that date were usually taken under the arm rather than by mouth, and thermometers then were probably not as accurate as those made today.  The data thus may have been skewed when compared to that collected by modern measurement methods.  In any case, body temperatures fluctuate a bit on any given day, and a discrepancy of a degree in either direction does not appear to be serious. 

The other came when one of the trainers was talking about how it was important to be prepared when confronted by cultural differences when attempting to rescue people.  As an example she mentioned that she had been in situations when a person in difficulties was reluctant to accept aid from her because she was black.  I was shocked when I heard this, whereas her own attitude was essentially:  “Hey, it happens, that’s one reason we go in teams.”  But to me It reinforced the message that Martin Luther King once gave:  when injustice is endemic in a society, the entire society suffers.  Whenever a black person meets someone for the first time, he must undergo a moment of doubt as to whether this new acquaintance is going to accept him as a person rather than a representative of his race.  As long as this impasse prevails, we’ll never make any real progress in social relations.

On a less depressing note, President Biden is directing all states to open coronavirus vaccine eligibility to all adults no later than May 1st, a step he will say could allow for small Independence Day gatherings on July 4th.  This measure will represent the most aggressive step towards re-opening to date.  Even so, the gatherings will be limited:  barbecues in the backyard rather than massive crowds at a stadium watching fireworks.  By the end of May the supply of vaccines should be sufficient to provide inoculation for every person who wants it.  The timing of the distribution is another story, particularly in rural areas.  I myself know several people who have been awaiting their turn to get vaccinated with no sign of being able to make an appointment for one for at least several weeks.  The rollout in Virginia has certainly accelerated this week.  All the same, of the 308,086 people who are currently registered in Fairfax County for the vaccine, 111,453 are still on the waitlist – and these all must receive their vaccines for completion of Phase 1b.

During the hike on Tuesday, one member of the group and I discussed the question of why the rate of infection and death from COVID is much less in countries such as India.  We speculated about many possible explanations, but we overlooked the most obvious one.  The World Obesity Federation recently issued a report showing a clear link between excess body weight, obesity in particular, and COVID-19 mortality. Being overweight was more predictive of severe COVID-19 illness than any factor with the exception of age. In countries where less than half the adult population was classified as overweight, the risk of death from the coronavirus was about one-tenth the level found in nations where more than half are overweight or obese.  Mexico, for example, has an age distribution comparable to India’s.  But only 3.9% of India’s adult population is categorized as obese, whereas Mexico’s obesity rate is 28.9%.  The correlation between obesity and risk of COVID-related infection and death is borne out by a comparison of the two countries’ rates:  India has little over half of the infections per capita than Mexico’s and well under one-tenth of the deaths. 

The U.S., incidentally, has an obesity rate of 42.4%.  The rate has been steadily rising; in 2008 the obesity rate was a comparatively modest 26%.  As recently as 2012, no state had an adult obesity rate above 35%; in 2000 no state had an adult obesity rate above 25%. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  119,097,838; # of deaths worldwide: 2,640,870; # of cases U.S.: 29,922,897; # of deaths; U.S.:  543,599. 

An “epic” hike – The CHC considers resumption of bus rides – Merrick Garland confirmed as Attorney General – Evening statistics

GC, a friend with whom I have performed some of my most ambitious hikes, has particular criteria for a hike to deserve the epithet of “epic.”  It is not sufficient for a hike merely to be strenuous.  It must involve going off of defined trails, provide a measure of difficulty in finding the way to the destination, and offer a challenge in the ruggedness of the terrain.  The hike that I participated in yesterday amply fulfilled these conditions.

The hike consisted of two bushwhacks, one of which I had done several years ago, albeit in the direction that was the reverse of the one we used yesterday.  Still, it offered no surprises.  We descended down a trail that went outside of Shenandoah National Park to a country road until we reached the park boundary again.  From there we crossed a stream and bushwhacked upwards along the stream.  The object of the bushwhack is to see a waterfall that cannot be reached by the defined trails, and it is well worth seeing.  The water streams over a rock wall several dozen feet high, culminating in a limpid pool at the base.  The weather, moreover, provided the ideal conditions in which to view it; clear and warm, without being oppressive or humid.  After we left the falls the ascent became much steeper and the undergrowth was dense at times, which slowed our progress considerably.  But we were able to locate the trail that returned to Skyline Drive without too much difficulty.  The trail ended at an overlook, where we had lunch, and then we began the second part of the hike.

So far, this description does not sound especially toilsome.  And indeed the second part was deceptively easy in the beginning.  We descended about 3½ miles along a fire road to a stream crossing, and then we followed an old trail until it came to a point where it was no longer maintained.  Even so, the undergrowth was not difficult to get through and it was easy to follow for a time.  Eventually, however, it petered out and we had to struggle through, snaking our way through breaks in the rock wall of the river gorge and crossing the stream on occasion.  Eventually we came upon another trail that led to a junction with an old road and, after about a tenth of a mile further on, to the second waterfall.  This waterfall was a bit of a disappointment.  We could view it only from a distance, partly obscured by trees.  And here we made our great mistake.

Some of the group members wanted to view the waterfall at a better angle, so we left the trail and went upwards through an area that not only was steep but was covered with undergrowth.  As matters turned out, even as we got closer it was impossible to get a full view of the falls; we never could find an angle at which the trees did not get in the way. 

At this point we had to begin our return.  We had descended about two thousand feet and we knew that the way upward would be strenuous.  The old road that we had passed offered the most straightforward way of getting back up to one of the park trails.  But we had climbed a couple of hundred feet and had crossed a branch of the stream in pursuit of this elusive better view of the falls, and some were reluctant to reverse the effort we had made in arriving at our current position.  I was dubious about the proposal to continue going straight upwards, for the incline was very steep.  We had had dry weather for the past few days, but I was apprehensive the amount of rainfall in the previous week would make the soil underneath loose in places.  But complaint or argument would have been idle, for I could not possibly have found the return route on my own.  So we went on, and as we did so the footing became more and more insecure. 

Then one of the members in our group stepped in a spot where the earth gave way and he took a bad fall, causing his ankle to brush against a rock.  There had been other falls earlier in the hike – I took one myself at the end of a stream crossing, but it ended in nothing worse getting my shoes and socks and some portion of my trousers wet, not a significant issue when the atmosphere is warm enough to provide no danger of chilling or frostbite.  But this fall caused a serious injury.  At first we were apprehensive that the ankle had been broken, but after he attempted to get up on his feet and put his weight on it, he found that he was able to walk.   The ankle, however, was badly gashed and bled copiously.  We had to bind it up before we continued our journey.

It was clear that we could no longer go straight upward.  DG, the hike leader, set out on a new route that went parallel with the trail that we had used between the road and the waterfall.  Eventually the road would begin to ascend and the idea was that we would eventually be able to reach it.  Going through this area was sheer torment.  The footing undoubtedly was firmer and there no longer was much danger of sliding downwards, but there was no path of any description and everywhere we turned overhanging twigs and branches constantly impeded the way.  And when DG and I finally reached the old road, we made the belated discovery that none of the other members of the group were behind us.

Eventually RT, another member of the group who had taken a different route to the old road, rejoined us, but there were five other members that had to be accounted for.  DG retraced his steps and called and blew his whistle to signal them, but they were out of hearing.  By this time it was past five o’clock and we were forced to continue if we were to reach our cars by twilight.  There were several different possible scenarios to look forward to:

1. We could reach the parking area and meet the others there waiting for us.  They had gotten a significant head start on us because DG had searched for them for several minutes, so this outcome was not only possible, but likely.
2. We could reach the parking are only to find the cars of the others gone.  In that case we would have inferred that they reached the parking area and had taken off, after growing tired of waiting for us.
3. We could overtake them on the trail that led to the parking lot.  Since one of the five had been injured, they almost certainly were going at a slower pace than we three were.
4. We could arrive at the parking area and not find them there, with the cars parked in the position we had left them in the morning.  At that point we would have to notify the rangers that five hikers were missing.

We earnestly hoped that this last scenario would not be the one we would have to face.  The rangers would not have been pleased.  Searching for people who have become lost wandering on trails is always difficult and it becomes doubly so after nightfall; when the people to be rescued are known not to be on any recognized trail at all, the situation becomes nightmarish. 

Matters turned out reasonably well in the end.  We followed the old road, which had not been maintained and contained a few obstacles in the form of fallen tree limbs and patches of undergrowth, but which on the whole was relatively easy to follow.  From there we reached the trail that led back to Skyline Drive.  Within the last mile we came across four of the hikers who had separated from us.  The fifth had gone ahead to the parking area because they thought we had already arrived there and she was dispatched to tell us that they were safe.

That was not quite the end of the adventure.  The hiker who had fallen and been injured earlier had been weakened by loss of blood and dehydration, and his legs had cramped to the extent that he was having difficulty in moving.  When we joined up with the others he was resting on the ground and was uncertain whether he could manage the distance that remained (about half a mile, a formidable distance if you’re in a state in which it causes sharp pain for every step you take).  Fortunately, being subject to such cramps myself after over-exertion, I always carry salt tablets with me while hiking.  I provided a few of these to him and they were reasonably effective.  At length he was able to get to his feet and move again without pain.

The hike was over fifteen miles and involved more than 4200 feet of ascent.  It would have been a significant undertaking in the best of circumstances.  It was not surprising that we were all very tired by the end.  When I add that the return drive took about two hours, no one will astonished at the fact that by the time I reached home I was conscious of two imperative needs:  first, to prepare food and consume a much-needed dinner and second, to take a warm shower, as much to drive off the chill derived from being clad in clothes moist with perspiration as for cleansing purposes.  During these activities a third pressing need became apparent to me as well:  namely, to take to my bed and collapse in a kind of torpid stupor that might conceivably pass for slumber.

I was too tired to compose an entry for yesterday after these events, or even to obtain the daily statistics.  After a brief repose of 9 hours or so, however, my spirits and energy are restored and I am able to contemplate the hike I have described in a somewhat calmer state of mind.  It was not a wasted effort by any means.  The first waterfall of the hike was lovely; the streams that we paralleled contained many smaller cascades that sparkled and danced in the sunlight; the views from the Hazeltop Ridge overlook provided views of the distant peaks in the southern section of the park; the area enclosing the Conway River, the second of the two streams we explored, has a wild beauty of its own.  If it were not for the mistake we made in straying from the pre-prepared route, it would have been a strenuous but quite a rewarding hike.  As it was, it was an object lesson in what should be a fixed rule for any hiker:  never hesitate to backtrack if you have reason to believe that you have made a wrong turn along the way.

Among the emails awaiting me upon my return – which, however, I did not open until today, being too tired yesterday to use the workstation at all – was one from PF, the director of the Capital Hiking Club, asking board members to meet on a day in the coming week, with a view of discussing the resumption of the club’s hikes.  It is possible that setting up rides in chartered buses, as we have done in the past, may become feasible during the next few months.

Various errands claimed my attention today, and consequently I have not spent much time looking at the news.  There is, however, at least one noteworthy item:  Merrick Garland is now the Attorney General, five years after the motion spear-headed by Mitch McConnell prevented him from securing a place in the Supreme Court, determined that he would never obtain a prominent position in the national judicial system.  Latterly, however, McConnell has not been particularly successful in his resolutions, and on the current occasion he actually voted in Garland’s favor, perceiving that he would gain nothing by opposing the nomination. 

Today’s statistics as of 10:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  118,630,045; # of deaths worldwide: 2,631,996; # of cases U.S.: 29,862,124; # of deaths; U.S.:  542,191.  I cite the numbers from a later time than usual because I was occupied with CERT training tonight.

Guidelines for the vaccinated – First travel plans – The shift in emphasis in the entries – The last of Trump’s lawsuits against the election – Evening statistics

The CDC has released guidelines for Americans who are fully vaccinated.  They may get together with other fully vaccinated individuals in small groups inside their homes without masks or physical distancing. They can also visit with unvaccinated people from one other household who are at low risk for severe disease.  In addition, they will not have to quarantine or take a COVID test for traveling across state borders.  At this point about 18% of the population has been vaccinated, so it is still advisable to wear masks and practice social distancing in large gatherings, if only to protect others.

All of which means that, on a personal level, I will soon be able to visit the homes of friends who have been vaccinated and to invite them as guests.  The first such visit has already been planned.  The trip to New York to see my aunt and to celebrate her 90^th birthday, originally scheduled for July, 2020, will occur in April.  I will also be making arrangements later on for staying a night or so in the Monongahela Forest area to hike in West Virginia and in the area close to Buchanan to hike in central Virginia.  Perhaps, still later in the year, I will be able to stay in a convenient location to tackle the New Jersey portion of the Appalachian Trail as well.

The personal note is recurring in these memoirs, for two reasons.  The first is that, as the new guidelines suggest, things are starting to move again.  In future months my calendar will no longer consist solely of doctor or dentist appointments and visits from repairmen.  As more people in my circle receive the vaccine, parties will begin – small and tentative at first, no doubt, but by degrees getting back to normal.  I don’t intend to rush matters and, despite the recommendations of Governor Abbott of Texas, I have not jettisoned my facemasks.  But no longer will I feel obligated to confine my activities within the compass of a two- or three-hour radius from my home once I receive my second dose.

The other reason is that there is a good deal less to report on the national front.  By that I do not mean that business is at a standstill in the White House or that there is not the usual assortment of national and international situations that require careful handling – such as the recent coup in Myanmar, for instance.  But the extraordinary atmosphere of calm now prevailing in the nation’s capital may be gauged when I relate that during the past six weeks of the current administration, not one member of the White House staff has been abruptly sent packing, not one highly placed official has been caught in the middle of financial defalcations or of forcing his attentions on nubile young women, and, most remarkable of all, there has not been a single temperamental rant or any display of pitiably unjustified boasting on the part of our President.  It seems incredible.  Over the past four years it appeared almost a law of nature that every 5 days or thereabouts the news headlines would broadcast the unceremonious dismissal of a White House staff member, accompanied by maledictions stigmatizing him or her as incompetent, stupid, or crazy, perhaps for no worse offense than omitting the mandatory daily grovel; or an outbreak of churlish disparagement of a judge who asserted his judicial independence by favoring the law over the President’s wishes to cover up some murky financial skullduggery; or an ignominious squabble with a state governor of the opposing political party at the expense of the health and welfare of all of the state’s residents; or a speech gloating about his achievements with such an exaggerated degree of rhodomontade as to cause murmurs of alarm among members of his own party; or – but I omit the other (and numerous) categories of scandal that afflicted the previous administration, for fear of being tedious.  At all events, there is nothing of that nature to report now, which perhaps has the effect of making my daily entries less lively than before.

Trump has not quite eluded the headlines today, albeit not in the manner he desired:  the Supreme Court has rejected both his lawsuit to challenge the state’s election results by alleging Wisconsin officials imposed “unauthorized absentee voting practices” without the state legislature’s consent and the lawsuit brought by pro-Trump attorney Lin Wood against Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger and other election officials in the state, which tried to stop the Jan. 5 Senate runoff elections in the state.  These are the last two lawsuits remaining of the dozens Trump has lobbied in his attempt to remain in office after he was voted out, so he will have to rely on other means to win his way back to power.  As the events of January 6^th have shown, he is not particularly fastidious in choosing them.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  117,737,737; # of deaths worldwide: 2,611,556; # of cases U.S.: 29,693,959; # of deaths; U.S.:  537,827. 

First dose at last! – The vaccination procedure – Effects of the vaccine on short-term behavior and long-term travel plans – Evening statistics

I received the first dose of the Pfizer vaccine today.  The procedure was somewhat different than what I had imagined it to be.  When I took tests earlier to determine whether or not I was virus-free there generally was a bit of a wait.  People were tested one at a time and that circumstance made for a waiting line – not a particularly troublesome one, but there was a delay between checking in and getting the test.  On this occasion the bulk of the time was taken up by check-in to verify that I had a valid appointment and a 10-minute waiting time afterwards to ensure that I had no severe allergic reaction to the vaccine.  The vaccination itself was completed in a couple of minutes.  Once my appointment was verified I was directed to go to a large room containing several dozen stations, each of them manned by two nurses, one for administering the vaccine and one for entering data for the vaccination (name of patient, date of birth, time of vaccine, etc.) into the database.  Nurses, in my experience, have become increasingly adept at administering vaccination shots, but the nurse I met today was simply amazing.  I felt just the slightest possible touch on my arm and a faint tingle as the needle entered, so slight and so quickly injected that I couldn’t believe at first that she had completed the insertion.  Afterwards I was sent to a waiting room and directed to wait for ten minutes.  Then I left to return back home, where I immediately made an appointment for my second dose and scanned the vaccination card given to me at the time of the vaccine.  The Pfizer doses are administered at slightly briefer intervals than the Moderna one.  In this case it will be exactly three weeks:  my next appointment is for the 28^th.  I had no sense of fatigue or feverishness afterwards; only a slight soreness on my arm, so mild that there was no need to take aspirin or Tylenol (which was recommended if I were to feel significant pain). 

To what extent this experience is typical remains to be seen.  I know of others who have received their vaccinations under considerably more chaotic considerations.  My vaccination occurred at an INOVA hospital and medical research center, and the appointment was made through Fairfax County (as opposed to pharmacies such as CVS or Safeway), so those may be factors in the streamlining of the process I witnessed today.

Daily habits will not be much affected by the inoculation.  I will still be wearing a mask in public places such as grocery stores and in heavily frequented areas out of doors.  The Pfizer vaccine is the most affective of the three vaccines currently in circulation, but a 95% efficacy rate means that there is a 1-in-20 chance of getting infected even after the vaccination.  More importantly, it is quite possible to get exposed to the disease and to have all symptoms suppressed by the vaccine, in which case I could conceivably be a source of danger to others without knowing it if I go unmasked in public areas.  But visiting friends who have been inoculated will become much easier – it will no longer be necessary, for example, to hold all friendly calls out of doors. 

After I receive the second dose I will feel easier in my mind about traveling, so I hope to see my aunt next month and celebrate her 90^th birthday in person, which is long overdue; her birthday is in July.  Also I can stay overnight in places so that I can attempt certain hikes without driving three or four hours each way – for instance, the hike at Spruce Knob and Seneca Creek.  My goal of hiking the Appalachian Trail through New Jersey is more problematic; at this date; the state applies quarantine requirements for all out-of-state travelers, even if they have been vaccinated.  Pennsylvania has recently rescinded its quarantine requirements, so at the worst I could stay for a night or so in Delaware Water Gap while pursuing this project. 

More ambitious travel is planned for later in the year.  LM has organized two trips, one to King’s Canyon and Sequoia National Park in June (this trip was originally scheduled for 2020 and had to be abandoned on account of the travel restrictions) and one in the French Alps during September.  The John Muir Lodge and the Grant Cove Cabins, where we are supposed to be staying for the King’s Canyon/Sequoia trip, are scheduled to re-open on April 2^nd, so our group will be among its earliest visitors.  Each of us will bring a supply of masks, whether vaccinated or not; the masks are, thankfully, required in the airport and on the airplane.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  117,431,172; # of deaths worldwide: 2,604,787; # of cases U.S.: 29,693,959; # of deaths; U.S.:  537,827.  Less than 40,000 new cases today and a little over 700 deaths, the lowest amounts seen in days.  As Napoleon’s mother would say, “Pourvu que ça dure!”  (If only it lasts.)

The Fort Duncan hike – The effect of COVID on the entertainment industry – The malevolently uncanny power of Donald Trump – State restrictions being lifted, perhaps prematurely – Evening statistics

We had a splendid hike today, one of the most enjoyable I’ve experienced in a long time.  Starting from the NPS parking area close to Fort Duncan, we bushwhacked to the site of the fort, where the trench lines and the pits for storing ammunition are easy to discern.  From there we went down one ridge and over another, in the course of which we stopped at an overlook with extensive views of the Potomac River and the bank slightly north of Harper’s Ferry.  From there we descended to the C&O Canal, went along the canal path to the Maryland Heights Trail, went to the Maryland Heights overlook and back, and stopped for lunch close to the point where we descended.  Finally we went along the canal path in the opposite direction, went on the remains of an old road to go through the shaft of an abandoned iron mine, and bushwhacked back to the parking area.  The forest trees were fairly densely spaced and there were obstacles in the form of numerous tree limbs and branches on the ground, but there was relatively little undergrowth and few brambles; so that the bushwhacking portions were not unduly difficult.  Part of the enjoyment I received came from the fact that I’ve never done this hike before, and it is always pleasant to embark on a new hike; but the views of the Potomac flowing rapidly with its wavelets brushing against the banks, and the scrambling through the mine shaft, with its nearly perpendicular rock walls on either side, were especially satisfying.  There were twelve of us in all, a good number for a group that had to keep closely together so as not to get lost during the bushwhacks; and afterwards we partied as usual with drinks and snacks in the parking area.  The parking area is rather limited and we nearly filled it with our cars, but it is also rather difficult to find and it does not abut any recognized trailhead; so we occupied it in undisputed possession. 

Today is an anniversary of sorts.  Last year on this date I went with RK to the Harris Theater at George Mason University to attend a concert by the King Singers.  The memory is notable because I have not been able to attend any theater performance since that time.  I mention this not in the spirit of feeble complaint, but as an indication of the fact that even though we have recovered some of the ground lost since the onset of the pandemic, we have a long way to go.  From a strictly personal point of view, of course, the lack of opportunities to attend concerts and theater performances is merely an inconvenience.  But for many people it is a source of livelihood:  not only those whom we see on stage, such as actors, musicians, conductors, singers, and dancers, but also those who work behind the scenes, such as directors, producers, set designers, lighting crews, ticket office workers, and so on.  It has been a hard year for them indeed, with their main source of income having dried up and with no immediate relief in sight.  One friend of mine is a part-time clown, and before the pandemic started a substantial amount of his income came from performing at private parties.  That sort of activity is out of the question now.  Broadway has been closed since March 12, 2020.  There is talk of allowing the shows to reopen in May, but October seems to be a more probable date.  Live performers will thus be without visible means of support for more than a year and a half.  My brother is one of the more fortunate ones:  he is an animator, and most of the work he and his colleagues execute can be done comfortably via online meetings and at desktops from their homes. 

If I sometimes seem to be obsessed with our former president, I have my reasons.  The man himself at this point is of small account in his own right, but even in his defeat he manages to possess his strange power of depleting every vestige of manhood from his former associates. The latest example of this phenomenon is Mike Pence, who recently issued an op-ed criticizing the “irregularities” of the November election.  Pence, it may be remembered, was one of the targets of the Capitol rioters because he would not interfere with the electoral process, even to the extent of their uttering death threats against him.  After the riot occurred, those closest to him reported that he was deeply angered, particularly against Trump, who refused to call off the rioters’ actions and who spoke of him dismissively.  Yet all of that appears to be forgotten a bare two months after the event, as he aligns himself solidly with the very same people who attempted to lynch him.  If I lived in an earlier age, I probably would end up accusing Trump of witchcraft.  If he were at all charismatic or possessed a winning personality I could better understand the grip he exerts upon his followers, however mistaken I might believe them to be.  But his manners seem to me every bit as objectionable as his morals.  Can someone explain to me why so many respectable men and women treat him with the craven subservience of eunuchs in the court of an Oriental potentate?

More states are lifting restrictions, despite the warnings of health authorities such as Fauci.  Capacity limits on businesses in Arizona are abolished, although masks are still required. South Carolina’s mask mandate in government buildings has been lifted, although masking in restaurants is still required.   California will allow amusement parks, outdoor sports, and live events at stadiums to restart April 1, with reduced capacity and mandatory masks.  New York City now has limited indoor dining, while Connecticut’s capacity limits on restaurants, offices, and gyms will end this month. We seem to be repeating the mistake of the previous summer.  The virus had appeared to reach a plateau in June; and instead of consolidating and waiting for a definite reverse trend, governors across the nation eased restrictions, at which point the rate of infection promptly increased.  The recent figures are certainly encouraging, but they don’t seem to justify the optimism that some state governors are displaying.  For instance, over the past seven days the average number of new cases was about 61,000, the lowest amount since October.  But it is still the same as the rate of increase during the summer of 2020 at its peak.  Again, the number of new deaths has been falling steadily.  But it is still about 2,000 per day. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  117,067,001; # of deaths worldwide: 2,599,176; # of cases U.S.: 29,653,190; # of deaths; U.S.:  537,118.  The number of new cases here was 14% of the number of new cases worldwide, and the number of deaths was 19% of deaths worldwide, so I suppose that’s an improvement.

Appointment for the first vaccine dose – The vaccine boycotters – Calculating risks in a probabilistic world – A rioter from the Trump administration – Evening statistics

Today was occupied with many mundane errands, income taxes among them.  But I have at last obtained an appointment to receive the COVID vaccine.  The process for setting it up was somewhat convoluted.  Fairfax County sent a text to me, stating that I was eligible for an appointment and to check my Email for a notice with details on how to schedule an appointment.  I accordingly checked my Email and found no notice from the county at all.  So I called the number for contacting the county operations and eventually (the use of the adverb is justified, for the process over half-an-hour) spoke with a representative who told me to set up an online account with INOVA, from which I would be able to make the appointment.  This I have done, and indeed I was able to make an appointment for Sunday.  I do not see how setting up such an account can be done by those who are not what is called “computer-literate.”  Among other things, it required a scanned image of the fronts and backs of my medical insurance cards.  I have a printer/scanner at my home, so I could supply these without difficulty; but those who do not have the appropriate equipment would probably have to go to a store to scan the cards for them and then transfer them from either a disk or an Email attachment. 

I have written about how the demand for COVID vaccines has been far exceeding the supply (and indeed I know several in neither Phase 1A or 1B who are getting increasingly anxious about the length of time they will have to wait to receive one), but a significant amount of Americans claim that they will refuse the vaccine.  About 23% of Republicans said that they “definitely” will not receive one of the available vaccines and an additional 21% said that they “probably” would not get immunized.  Among the Democrats, by way of contrast, only 7% have said that they will not get vaccinated. 

These objectors cite safety concerns and it is true that there is some risk involved:  the vaccines are new, and we can’t be certain about how effective they will be in the long run.  All the same, this type of reaction demonstrates what my late father observed about the difficulties people have in coping with what he called the “probabilistic universe,” which he attributed to the average American student’s lack of mathematical training.  There are two separate issues here.  Some people have gone into anaphylaxis, which is a severe and potentially life-threatening condition.  Some have contracted the disease after receiving the vaccine – which is only to be expected, for there is no vaccine that has a 100% success rate.  The efficacy rate for the Pfizer, Moderna, and Janssen vaccines are 95%, 94%, and 85% respectively; in negative terms, about 5%, 6%, and 15% respectively may contract the disease after receiving the vaccine.  It is still a little early to get firm data about the risk of incurring anaphylaxis after receiving the vaccine, but so far the results indicate that it is about 4.7 cases per million doses for the Pfizer vaccine and 2.5 per million doses for the Moderna vaccine; in most cases, moreover, the people thus affected have had a medical history of severe allergies and, in some instances, previous episodes of anaphylaxis. 

The risks attendant on taking the vaccine, however, have to be weighed against the risk of being getting infected with the disease, which at this point has been contracted by nearly 9% of all Americans.  The death rate among those who contract the disease is currently about 1.8%, which works out to 1.6 deaths per every 1000 of the total population.  The rate of those who have sustained significant organ damage (to the lungs in particular) as a result of the virus is at this point unknown, but it is higher than the mortality rate.  No one can guarantee total safety or total immunity after taking the vaccine, but the risk of declining to receive it is significantly higher.  As the mathematicians would say, “QED.” 

The Justice Department has by now charged more than 300 people who participated in the January 6^th Capitol siege, but one in particular is noteworthy.  Federico Klein is the first official appointed directly by Trump to face the DOJ’s allegations.  Klein was seen on video assaulting police officers, attempting to take items from them, and assaulting them with a riot shield. The court documents allege he ‘violently shoved the shield into an officer’s body in an attempt to breach the police line.”  Klein was an employee of the Department of State and possessed a Top Secret clearance; he resigned on January 19^th, the day before Biden’s inauguration.  He is the first member of the Trump political administration to be charged in connection with the riot.  He occupied a fairly low-level position, but possibly this case may pave the way for the proverbial bigger and better things. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  116,650,517; # of deaths worldwide: 2,591,104; # of cases U.S.: 29,593,006; # of deaths; U.S.:  535,560. 

The approach of spring – Peace at the Capitol – Escalation of violence in Myanmar – The investigation of the election in Georgia – Evening statistics

Spring is coming early this year.  I went along the Burke Lake/Lake Mercer route, where I saw numerous crocuses and hellebore in full bloom.  Buds are beginning to form on the cherry trees.  I passed by several vernal ponds, where frogs were continually peeping.  The trees on Vesper Island in the center of Burke Lake were adorned with heron’s nests and in the thick of the woods starlings were flocking by the thousands, chattering at a volume that made the term “murmuration” something of an understatement. 

Sometimes the absence of news is a good deal better than the alternative.  The attempt on the Capitol anticipated today failed to materialize, either because it was called off or because the rumors about it were overblown.  The House of Representatives had already canceled their session today in advance, not wishing to undergo a repetition of the experience of January 6^th.  But the deployment of National Guard troops does not appear to overstep the bounds of common prudence.  It is just as well to err on the side of caution, especially after such a proof that QAnon members have given of their disdain for the law.

The death toll in Myanmar is rising.  At least 54 protesters have been shot by the militia.  The Commerce Department has imposed trade sanctions against the military government and the Federal Reserve of New York blocked an attempt by the country’s rulers to move $1 billion in funds.  The U.N. has condemned the violence as “unacceptable,” and their rebuke has been met with all of the success that U.N. resolutions against oppressive regimes generally have. 

The criminal investigation about Trump’s attempted interference with the election in Georgia has entered a new phase.  Two grand juries have convened today, and Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis already notified Georgia state officials in February, requesting them to preserve relevant documents.  Trump could potentially be charged with the solicitation of election fraud, conspiracy, and racketeering, all of which are felonies that incur significant amounts of time in prison.  This brings up an interesting question:  if she is able to obtain a verdict of “Guilty” from a grand jury, will any judge have the firmness to impose a jail sentence upon a former President of the United States?  

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  116,206,172; # of deaths worldwide: 2,580,784; # of cases U.S.: 29,525,224; # of deaths; U.S.:  531,652. 

The pandemic begins to wane – Precautions at the Capitol – CERT training – Evening statistics

More good news on the virus front:  hospitalizations have dropped by half in many states since the records set in January.  Only three states – Florida, New York, and Texas – have reported more than 5,000 cases yesterday.  During the month of January, 29 states had over 300 people hospitalized per million residents.  Now only four states – Georgia, New Jersey, New York, and D.C. – have between 200 and 300 people hospitalized per million residents, and all the others have less than 200.   The 54,248 new cases reported yesterday is the lowest number of new cases reported on a Tuesday since October 13^th.

Over 5,000 National Guard troops are being deployed around the Capitol.  The QAnon group has claimed that Trump will return to power on March 4^th, the original date for a presidential inauguration in the Constitution, prior to the ratification of the 20th Amendment in 1933 that changed it to Jan. 20^th.   It is only too probable that they will take action to make that prophecy become reality and attempt a second besiegement.  National Guard troops will remain in DC through at least March 12^th because of fears of extremist activity.

Recently I went through an online course of Community Emergency Response Team (CERT) training.  I got involved in this training because I contacted the Fairfax City government some months earlier to see if there was any way in which I could provide services for medical care professionals during the pandemic.  There was nothing specifically for volunteers with no previous training, but eventually the CERT training was recommended to me.  Tonight I attended the first live training session.  Five of these in all are given, held at weekly intervals, after completion of the online course.  For a subject that involves a good deal of physical activity, live classroom sessions make a great difference.  The focus of tonight’s session, for example, was on the response to fires.  I saw and physically handled several different fire extinguishers and put out a simulated fire with one of them.  (Note:  CERT responders are not fire-fighters and are not supposed to handle large-scale fires, but they can handle small ones that can be extinguished in five seconds or thereabouts.)  I have not used a fire extinguisher for years until tonight; now that I’ve had some brief hands-on experience with one, I feel a good deal more confident about handling an extinguisher if a real emergency should materialize.  The experience brought home forcibly to me how difficult it has been for students this past year who must rely primarily on online instruction without any live interaction with teachers or other students.

Today’s statistics as of 11:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  115,765,405; # of deaths worldwide: 2,571,756; # of cases U.S.: 29,456,377; # of deaths; U.S.:  531,652.