Month: May 2021

Another hike in Shenandoah National Park – A Memorial Day weekend party – Fresh bamboo shoots – Memorial Day weekend celebrations – Bear attack in Yellowstone – End of restrictions on South Korean missiles – Change in China’s family size policy – Increase in official death toll of Peru – Evening statistics

I met with AD and RH again yesterday for another hike in Shenandoah National Park.  This time we started at Meadow Springs and went on a 10-mile loop via the Hazel Mountain, Catlitt Mountain, and White Rock Trails.  Its ascents were easily graded for the most part and the elevation gain was about 1800 feet.  The weather was better than forecasted; instead of the rain that was predicted, there was no precipitation and the air was less damp than that of the preceding day.  It was warmer as well, going up to the mid-50s; and while the sky was clouded, it was not gray.  With the sunlight continually trying to break through, the sky for most of the time was a luminous pearly-white.  We saw several pink lady-slippers, as well as bushes of mountain laurel just beginning to bloom. 

And today marked a momentous occasion:  I attended the first indoor party I have experienced since the beginning of the pandemic.  True, it was a fine day and many of the guests spent part of the time sitting outside on the lawn; but we sat together inside as well, gave embraces by way of greeting, and ate and drank together.  I saw RK for the first time in many months; in fact, I believe that the last time we saw one another face-to-face was in March, 2020, when we attended the King’s Singers concert together.  She is now back in the classroom, having returned in April, and is very well-pleased no longer to be teaching via Zoom.  I spoke with her and with her good friend MF about the activities we have been doing during the pandemic; and MF mentioned that she has been looking into the blog from time to time.  Some of the guests entered the house wearing facemasks, still incredulous that we could assemble together without this precaution; but eventually they came to realize it was unnecessary among a group of people who are all vaccinated and discarded them of their own accord.  The hosts were DC and JC, whom I have mentioned in several previous entries, and they received the guests with their usual hospitality, which included several dishes containing fresh vegetables from JC’s garden. 

When I departed JC gave me some bamboo shoots, which she dug from the grove of bamboo in the backyard.  These require a little advance preparation.  They must be peeled of the fibrous outer leaves and then parboiled to remove their taxiphyllin, a toxin that is capable of producing cyanide in the intestines.  There is nothing to worry about after this preliminary treatment; taxiphyllin degenerates very quickly in boiling water.  I mention this as an example of the increased dependence people have been displaying generally during the pandemic upon foods that they make with their own hands:  gardening, bread-making, preserving fruits and vegetables – all have increased significantly during the past months.  It must be added that, in the case of JC, she has been growing vegetables in her garden for years and needed no outbreak of disease to encourage her to supply her kitchen with home-grown produce.

The Memorial Day weekend celebrations have borne a closer resemblance to pre-pandemic conditions than any other public holiday for over a year.  People congregated without wearing masks; after the CDC changed its guidelines on this issue mask mandates are been eased almost everywhere.  At this point only California, Hawaii, and New Mexico are the only states that still enforce mask mandates for everyone.  AAA has estimated that more than 37 million people in the US would travel at least 50 miles from home over the Memorial Day weekend, which is less than the number who did so in 2019 by 13%, but is 60% above last year’s figure.  Come to think of it, I myself fall into that category:  the Thornton Gap entrance to Shenandoah National Park, to which I traveled on both Saturday and Sunday, is well over 50 miles from my house. 

A somewhat ominous event occurred in Yellowstone National Park on Friday.  A solitary hiker was mauled by a grizzly bear in the Mammoth Springs area.  He sustained significant injuries to his legs, but nonetheless managed to get away on his own.  When I visited Yellowstone, it was impressed on me that I should not hike alone there – and I accordingly never ventured onto its trails without the company of others.  Not only bears, but elk and bison have large populations in that area, and they can be skittish and unpredictable.  One hike that we had planned to do had to be re-routed because a trail was closed off on account of grizzly sightings in the neighborhood.  Yellowstone averages about 1 bear attack per year.  There was an incident earlier this year with a less fortunate outcome.  A backcountry guide was attacked by a grizzly bear just outside the park on April 15^th and died from his injuries two days later.  I have had a number of bear encounters over the years, but these were with black bears, not grizzlies.  I’m not anxious to come close to one of them; they are considerably more aggressive than black bears, and stronger as well.  

The U.S. government has ended decades-long restrictions that capped South Korea’s missile development and has allowed the latter nation to develop weapons with unlimited ranges.  Kim Jong-Un, predictably, has reacted with anger, saying that this action could lead to an “acute and instable situation” on the Korean Peninsula.  Biden, clearly, has rejected the conciliatory policy of his predecessor, and observers believe that he will not provide North Korea with major sanctions relief unless it takes concrete denuclearization steps first.

China has changed its policy on limits to family size.  Parents are now allowed to have up to three children instead of two.  The Draconian restriction on family size was instituted some decades before, when China’s over-population threatened to drive the country into economic collapse.  But the situation has altered drastically since then.  The current birth rate averages 1.3 births per mother, well below the 2.1 rate needed to maintain a nation’s population size.  As a result, the population in China is rapidly aging and the number of people in China is expected to peak in a few years, with a decline beginning sooner than previously anticipated.  It is far from certain whether Chinese families will take advantage of this permission to have more than two children.  A large number of Chinese couples have complained that the high cost, professional sacrifice, and the need to take care of elderly parents has caused them to put off having children. 

Peru has increased its official death toll from just under 70,000 to more than 180,000.  Prime Minister Violeta Bermudez said that the number was raised on the advice of Peruvian and international experts, based on the amount of excess deaths in the country.  But – just as is the case with Mexico when its government admitted that its case count and death toll were greatly under-counted and gave updated figures of its own accord – these corrections have been ignored by the official data sites that track the effect of COVID on a country-by-country basis:  neither the Johns Hopkins site nor the Worldmeter site reflects this information.  Whether such obliviousness is deliberate or simply the result of oversight, it undermines the confidence one can place in the figures that they present.  Hence the figures below must be regarded with caution.

Yesterday’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 171,010,454; # of deaths worldwide: 3,556,327; # of cases U.S.: 34,043,010; # of deaths; U.S.: 609,544.   

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  171,385,482; # of deaths worldwide: 3,564,527; # of cases U.S.: 34,048,800; # of deaths; U.S.: 609,767.   These past two days have seen the smallest number of daily increases yet, with less than 8,000 new cases and less than 150 deaths.  Today’s daily increase of cases is about 1.5% of the global daily increases and today’s death toll is about 1.8% of the global deaths.  At long last we are experiencing numbers that are under the ratio of our population to that of the world at large, rather than well over, as has been the case for many months previously.

The pandemic is ending but not yet over – Increase in travel – Mask policies – How masks have controlled other viruses – Hiking in Shenandoah National Park – Response to the kidnapping of Roman Protasevich – Diminution of COVID cases in India – Evening statistics

We may be approaching the end of the pandemic, but we are not at that point yet.  When I visited a grocery store recently I saw a notice at its front door indicating that facemasks were required only for the non-vaccinated, but not many of the vaccinated customers were taking advantage of the permission to go unmasked.  Yesterday the trip that a group of us had planned to hike the French Alps in September had to be canceled.  Currently Americans are restricted from going to France and while in all probability such restrictions will be lifted by September, it’s impossible to be certain.  For the present travel within the country appears much less uncertain that international travel.  We will be going instead to the Sawtooth Mountains in Idaho – not a bad substitute by any means, as I have long wanted to visit that area.   

In any case, travel is definitely on the increase.  The TSA screened more than 1.9 million airplane passengers yesterday, the largest amount since the pandemic began to affect the travel industry in March, 2020.  It is not quite the normal amount one would expect at this time of year.  In 2019, the number of travelers on the Friday before Memorial Day weekend was over 2.5 million.  But it is a dramatic increase all the same:  from March 17 to October 18 last year, the TSA screened fewer than 1 million passengers daily.  Undoubtedly the lifting of restrictions, at any rate against vaccinated passengers, has contributed to this result.  Vaccinated passengers may now travel throughout the US without getting tested for the disease before or after plane, train, and bus trips.

There is no consistency in the mask policies over the various states.  Twenty-one states have no mask requirement at all.  Ten, as well as Washington DC, have mask requirements for unvaccinated people only.  The remaining nineteen have mask requirements for both unvaccinated and vaccinated alike; Maryland and Virginia are among these.  Masks are required for everyone in public transportation vehicles, health care facilities, congregate settings, and K-12 public schools.  It certainly is no great hardship to put on a mask for any of these, and common prudence suggests that it is advisable.  Even though the numbers are declining, we are still getting well over 10,000 new cases every day and several hundred deaths.  The CDC at this point recommends that unvaccinated people continue to wear masks and maintain social distancing; but, short of issuing a vaccine passport after the second dose and requiring all vaccinated people to carry it wherever they go, I don’t see any way of enforcing such measures.

I certainly don’t intend to jettison my facemasks, even when the pandemic officially is declared to be at an end.  It appears that they are very effective in reducing one’s chances of getting infected with other viruses besides COVID, such as colds or the flu.  For instance, the respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV, normally causes 60,000 children under the age of five annually to be hospitalized.  This past year the RSV cases were all but non-existent.  I will probably continue to wear them during the winter months, at any rate when I’m indoors at public facilities. 

One does not ordinarily feel the need for gloves in this area during Memorial Day weekend, but they certainly would have made today’s hike somewhat more comfortable.  I hiked with AD and RH in Shenandoah National Park, where the temperatures at times fell well below 50 degrees; and while it is true we had no rain, the weather was very damp.  The hike was a circuit from Elkwallow Wayside, taking the Appalachian Trail northwards, followed by the Piney Branch, Sugarloaf, Tuscarora, Trace, Matthews Arm, Weddlewood, Heiskall Hollow, and Elkwallow Trails.  We had to modify the original route, which turned from Heiskall Hollow down to the Knob Mountain and the Knob Mountain Cutoff Trails, because that would have involved going down to Jeremy’s Run.  The rain that lasted all night previously has undoubtedly filled the stream to overflowing, and it was best not to chance crossing it.  AD was rather apologetic about this modification, which reduced mileage and elevation gain slightly; but the total distance was 11½ miles and the elevation gain was 2300 feet – which is a respectable amount of exertion.  The air was overladen with fog, which naturally obscured any views from overlooks.  But hiking in the mist has pleasures of its own.  The surrounding trees and vegetation, when swathed in bands of low-lying cloud, acquire an other-worldly appearance, and at times under such conditions one feels that one is wandering through a dream.

The Biden administration has responded to the kidnapping of Roman Protasevich by issuing a travel advisory urging U.S. citizens not to travel to Belarus.  It plans to re-impose sanctions on nine Belarusian state-owned enterprises, beginning on June 3^rd, and to develop increased sanctions against Belarus’s government, among other actions.  In addition, the 2019 agreement that allowed US and Belarusian carriers to use each other’s airspace has been suspended.  Other nations from the EU have imposed flight bans on Belarusian airspace and are planning to impose sanctions on key sectors of the Belarusian economy, including its potash and oil products.

The number of daily new cases is declining in India; for the past two days it was less than 200,000, the lowest amount since mid-April.  It is difficult, of course, to know how much reliance may be placed on that figure.  It is possible, indeed overwhelmingly probable, that many new infections are not being reported, due to lack of dependable testing in the countryside.  But at any rate there is an encouraging reduction in infection among the urban population.

Yesterday’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 170,113,201; # of deaths worldwide: 3,536,895; # of cases U.S.: 34,022,079; # of deaths; U.S.: 608,946.  Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 170,606,970; # of deaths worldwide: 3,547,757; # of cases U.S.: 34,034,505; # of deaths; U.S.: 609,416. 

Places that still require facemasks – A new theatre season – Not all Shakespeare plays bear repeated viewings – Possible lab origin of the COVID virus – Evening statistics

We continue to get mixed messages as to whether or not the pandemic is ebbing to the point of being considered endemic.  Facemasks are still required at the assisted living facility where my mother has an apartment, which seems reasonable enough for a residential building whose inhabitants are old and frail.  Masks are required at the post office as well.  On the other hand, I received an advertisement in the mail for a theater subscription with live performances for the forthcoming season.  Regrettably, of the five plays they offer, three are by dramatists who do not interest me in the least, and although the remaining two are by Shakespeare, they are Much Ado About Nothing and The Merchant of Venice, neither of which I particularly enjoy.

Much Ado About Nothing is a moderately agreeable bit of fluff.  The sparring between Beatrice and Benedick is certainly entertaining, and worthy of a much better setting than the play in which it is to be found.  But the other parts are flat and uninteresting.  I have watched several performances that involved skilled actors tackling the roles of Hero, Claudio, Leonato, Antonio, and Don Pedro, all of them struggling in vain to bring a flicker of life into these cardboard characters.  The humor of Dogberry and the others in his “watch” (police force) I have always found rather feeble.  In short, it may be worth seeing once or even twice, but it is not play that I want to see repeatedly. 

The Merchant of Venice, on the other hand, I find positively distasteful – not for the reasons one might imagine.  Yes, I am Jewish and thus might be supposed to be alienated by its anti-Semitism; but this feature actually is a less prominent component of the play than its reputation would lead one to believe.  The real problem of the play is not Shylock, but Portia.  We are obviously supposed to regard her as a vivacious, intelligent, spirited, “feisty” girl; whereas I consider her to be the most disagreeable young woman in the entire range of Elizabethan literature.  Shylock is cast is the villain of the piece, but there is nothing particularly villainous in calling in a loan once it becomes due.  Admittedly, the penalty of losing a pound of flesh for defaulting is somewhat unusual.  Neither is it usual, one might legalistically remind the legalistic Portia, for a woman to set up a riddle contest for winning her hand in marriage and exacting a vow of eternal celibacy from any contestant who fails to guess the answer correctly.  As far as entering a bargain with either is concerned, I cannot see much difference between the two.  At any rate, when Regan, in King Lear, excoriates and tortures the Earl of Gloucester, we are – quite appropriately – meant to recoil in horror; when Portia humiliates and torments Shylock, we are meant to cheer her on.  She makes eloquent and explicit claims to mercy, but she is not in the least merciful.  The entire trial scene, in fact, reads like a weird adumbration of a political trial in China during the Cultural Revolution:  Portia is the officer in charge of making the accusations and orchestrating the abuse of the defendant, Gratiano is the eager lackey anxious to make brownie points with any officials who might be watching, the Duke is the administrator from Beijing visiting to ensure that all is going well with the stage-management of the affair, and Shylock is the unfortunate victim being “struggled against.”  Think of an alternate version of Othello that ends with everyone giving Iago high fives and congratulating him on the ingenuity of the methods he uses to get promoted to lieutenant, and that will give some idea of how jarring this scene is.  At any rate, I have no desire to see it again.

The U.S. intelligence community has said that it is unsure whether COVID-19 originated from a lab leak or through human contact with infected animals, and Dr. Fauci has indicated that he is uncertain as well.  Biden has ordered the community to investigate whether the virus in fact originated from a lab and was inadvertently (or even intentionally) released to the public at large.  This claim has some interesting ramifications.  It would mean, among other things, that Donald Trump was to some degree correct in blaming the Chinese government for originating the virus.  It is certain that the World Health Organization, which is responsible for the original claim that the disease was transmitted from animals to humans, was much too compliant with Chinese authorities in the early stages of the virus, blindly accepting assurances that all was under control and censuring Trump for restricting Americans traveling to China, one of the few responsible steps he took as the crisis accelerated.  The possibility of the virus originating from a lab leak comes from the discovery that three researchers from China’s Wuhan Institute of Virology sought hospital care for sudden illness in November 2019.  It is not clear, at this point, which illness they were treated for.  It is quite possible that they had severe bouts of influenza.  If it were COVID, however, the claim from the Chinese government of the first case of a man falling ill from the virus on December 8, 2010 is invalid.  The Wuhan lab has yet to share raw data or lab records about its work in studying coronavirus in bats, supposedly the most likely origin of the virus.  Now the WHO has back-pedaled:  Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, its director-general, has said that he does “not believe this assessment was extensive enough” and has called for an additional investigation into the Wuhan lab.  The Chinese government has furiously denied the suggestion that COVID-19 could have originated in one of its labs, calling such a theory “slander” and “a conspiracy by the U.S. intelligence agencies” – which naturally leads one to believe that the story might be true.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 169,597,651; # of deaths worldwide: 3,523,179; # of cases U.S.: 33,994,213; # of deaths; U.S.: 606,790.  In absolute numbers, we are now no longer the nations with the greatest number of critical cases:  India, Brazil, Argentina, and Colombia all have higher counts than our own.  We are no longer among the top ten of nations with the highest incidence rate of COVID.  We account for 20% of the world’s COVID cases to date and a little over 17% of the deaths from the virus – considerably lower ratios than they were some months ago.

Shopping without facemasks – The case against Trump Organization – The bears from the Smoky Mountains – Evening statistics

Today, though relatively uneventful, featured a landmark of sorts:  for the first time in months, I went shopping without wearing a facemask.  The sign at the front of the store now says only that facemasks are recommended for those who are not vaccinated.  I asked one of the cashiers (who herself was not masked) whether it was true that vaccinated customers could forego the use of facemasks and she confirmed that such was the case.  I still take a facemask with me when I go out to public areas such as stores or restaurants.  The policy remains too erratic to be certain whether or not they may still be required in some of these places. 

I have refrained from commenting upon the case that has been developed by the criminal probe jointly conducted by Cy Vance Jr., the Manhattan District Attorney, and Letitia James, the New York Attorney General, against the Trump Organization.  There have been indications for months of such a lawsuit being in preparation, but for many weeks I thought it would resemble the proverbial mountain in labor that eventually gave birth to a mouse.  It now appears, however, that the two attorneys’ efforts will be less empty than I had initially feared.   A grand jury has been seated to weigh criminal evidence against Donald Trump and his company, and to decide if indictments should be issued.  Several Trump Organization officials, including Eric Trump and Chief Financial Officer Allen Weisselberg, have already been deposed.  The most encouraging sign of all is that Trump is evidently badly rattled by this development, for he has spoken out yesterday against the charges pending against him, with that modest air and quiet understatement that his past performances would lead one to expect:  “No other President in history has had to put up with what I have had to, and on top of all that, I have done a great job for our Country, whether it’s taxes, regulations, our Military, Veterans, Space Force, our Borders, speedy creation of a great vaccine (said to be a miracle!), and protecting the Second Amendment.” 

The charges include the Trump Organization inflating the value of its properties to lenders and insurers and underpayment of taxes. Prosecutors are also reportedly investigating whether Trump’s business gave employees benefits instead of higher salaries in an attempt to lower the company’s payroll tax burden.  The case will take some time; the probable schedule is for the grand jury to review information for three days a week over the next six months. The evidence it will review contains eight years’ worth of Trump’s tax returns.  None of this is any guarantee, of course, that Trump will undergo an appropriate penalty for his defalcations, but at any rate the lawsuit will occupy his energies for some time to come and perhaps may deter some of the more squeamish in the Republican Party from continuing to align themselves with him. Who knows? – perhaps even Mitch McConnell and Kevin McCarthy may come to realize to hitching their party’s fortunes to a man facing criminal charges and a potential jail term may not be as a good an idea as they have believed up to this point.  But admittedly such a conjecture may in all probability be overly optimistic on my part. 

In Jefferson County the Junior Reserve Officers’ Training Corps (JROTC) attempted to celebrate a party at the Chalet Village in Gatlinburg, which was visited by some unusual gate crashers.  Seven bears from the adjoining Smoky Mountain National Forest wandered into Chalet Village and blithely sauntered into its pool and Jacuzzi to refresh themselves during the 80-degree heat, while the students fled from the scene.   Chalet Village employees say that bears are frequently seen in the area, but that it is rare to see so many at once.  They are apparently becoming aware that the park facilities may be adapted for their own uses.  Some weeks ago a few friends of mine were staying in a cabin in the area, and they returned from one hike to discover that the cabin had been raided by bears.  One of them had even figured out how to open the refrigerator.  Unlike Goldilocks, the unexpected visitor of the three bears, they rejected nothing as being too cold or too hot, and devoured all of the food that they could find. 

 Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 169,056,817; # of deaths worldwide: 3,511,531; # of cases U.S.: 33,969,223; # of deaths; U.S.: 606,141.

Hiking in the southern section of Shenandoah National Park – A Baltimore oriole sighting – The pace of vaccinations in the U.S. – John Cena kowtows – Reminiscence of China’s recalcitrance with respect to COVID – Evening statistics

I led the hike for the Vigorous Hikers that I scouted on the 8^th.  Only three members of the group participated, which is rather a pity.  The hike is really a quite good one, and we enjoyed it thoroughly. The weather, also, was cooperative:  bands of mist periodically wafted over the mountain ridgeline, moderating the heat that prevailed in lower elevations.   The hike consists of a circuit via the Brown Mountain, Rocky Mountain, Big Portal Run, Big Run Loop, and Appalachian Trails.  The first half of the hike goes through a picturesque river gorge, its rock walls on either side adorned with vegetation.  The dry weather of the preceding week favorably affected the stream crossings; the water was so low that it was possible to go through all of them and emerge with dry feet.  The section of the AT used for this hike contains numerous overlooks.  In some cases the cloud cover prevented us from seeing a great deal but in others the views were untrammeled, particularly of the summits of Rockytop and Lewis Mountain.  The foliage is now in full leaf, providing an abundance of shade, with sunlight dappling the trail paths and, in some cases, illuminating the wildflowers with a peculiar incandescence as shafts of light slant through the chinks between the leaves.  The hike appealed to other senses besides those of sight.  Birds of all different varieties caroled continually as we paced the trails and scents from some of the flowers, and from wild azalea in particular, filled the air with their fragrance. 

We had a brief sighting of a Baltimore oriole, the first one I’ve seen in years.  I saw them frequently when I was growing up as they often flew past our garden, but as the years progressed my sightings of them continually diminished.  Small as such a statistical sampling may be, it is an apt representation of their plight as a whole; the population has declined by 24% in the period 1966-2000.  Climate change appears to be the main factor.  At such a rate the species may disappear from the area altogether by 2080.

It is official:  50% of all American adults are fully vaccinated.  The Biden administration has self-imposed a goal of 70% of adult Americans receiving at least one dose by July 4^th.  Currently the number of those who have received at least one dose is 61.6%.  Regrettably, the pace of vaccinations has slowed as a result of those who are unwilling to receive it.  In April, the U.S. administered about 3 million shots per day.  The current daily average is now about 1.8 million shots – not negligible but somewhat disappointing.  It is not clear why people should object to receiving it.  Less than 0.01% of those who have been vaccinated have contracted the disease after vaccination and only 160 have died from it.  By way of contrast, flu shots range from efficacy rates of 40%-60%. 

John Cena, who plays the brother of Vin Diesel’s Dom Toretto in the ninth installment of the popular “Fast & Furious” franchise, gave an interview to Taiwanese broadcaster TVBS for promoting the film.  In this interview he referred to Taiwan as a country in its own right.  He has since offered an apology to the government of China for making such a reference.  This apology is typical of the submission to China that is prevalent in the business world and in Hollywood in particular.  It is spectacularly misplaced.  Taiwan has been a separate nation for over 70 years.  It has a thriving economy, and the average Taiwanese has a great deal more freedom of movement and opportunities for economic advancement than his Chinese counterpart.  There is no more reason for Taiwan to resume its former status as a province of China than there is for Brazil to revert to its former status as a territory of Portugal.  In Cena’s defense, however, it must be admitted that the United Nations itself is every bit as spineless as he in this respect; it has consistently refused to give Taiwan official representation. 

This groveling approach to China generally has had severe ramifications in other respects:  one of the reasons that the coronavirus spread so rapidly from China to other nations in the first place was the reluctance of the World Health Organization during the early phase of the pandemic to find fault with Chinese authorities and to issue warnings to other nations about the severity of the disease in late 2019, when the disease could have been more easily contained.  Initially, it may be remembered, China downplayed the outbreak of the virus in Wuhan, claiming that the government had the virus under control and that there was no evidence that it could be communicated from person to person.  The WHO repeated China’s false reassurances verbatim, although behind the scenes various WHO officials were aware that the virus was more serious than reports from the Chinese government would have led outsiders to believe.  One of the few preventative steps Trump undertook against COVID was to impose travel restrictions upon Americans to China; and the WHO, instead of promoting this measure, protested against it.  Being overly submissive to China has thus already proven detrimental to the health of nations’ populations all over the world; might not their governments consider being a trifle more assertive in future dealings with this country?  Official recognition of Taiwan as a separate entity would be an excellent beginning.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  168,495,753; # of deaths worldwide: 3,498,858; # of cases U.S.: 33,944,565; # of deaths; U.S.: 605,181.

Exploring “Devil’s Forearm” – Aung San Suu Kyi on trial – Belarus hijacks a plane to arrest a dissident – COVID in India – Mayor Warren of Rochester – Evening statistics

I went with RS today to explore a route that he somewhat facetiously nicknamed “Devil’s Forearm,” because it goes upon the ridgeline about 500 feet above Devil’s Elbow, the rock formation on the Potomac a few miles east of Harpers Ferry.  We had to bushwhack a fair amount of the distance, of course, but we also came upon old roadbeds and clearings that could conceivably be used to form an established trail.  The climb up from the south side of the ridge made use of these routes to a considerable extent and was surprisingly easy.  The views from Buzzard Rock, looking down to the river flowing around a large tree-covered ait, were lovely, despite the morning fog.  The descent to the river was the most challenging part, although we were able to establish a route that slabs down to the east, where the gradient is less steep.  The total distance was only about 5 miles, but we spent between 2½ and 3 hours in exploration because our progress while descending the rocky slope was slow.  The weather was cool and damp, but happily we were able to complete our hike before the rain began to fall.  We were within the bounds of park property for the entire hike, so we may be able to give input on trail routes for that area.  Both Buzzard Rock and Devil’s Elbow are worth seeing, but at present they are accessible only to those who, like RS and myself, are willing to struggle through dense woodland in order to reach them.

This placid little adventure provides a great contrast to the considerable amount of distressing news from various quarters abroad.

In Myanmar Aung San Suu Kyi, the ousted leader, has appeared in public for the first time since the coup that overthrew her government at the beginning of February.  Alongside the ex-president Win Myint, she is standing trial for various charges that have been devised to discredit her and to legitimize the military’s seizure of power. If convicted of any of the offenses, she could be banned from running in the election that the junta has pledged to hold within one or two years of its takeover.   Another charge levelled against her is being handled by a separate court, that of breaching the colonial-era Official Secrets Act.  If convicted of this accusation, she could receive a sentence of up to 14 years’ imprisonment, which at her age (she is well into her 70s) would in all probability result in jail time for the remainder of her life.  Her main “crime” is that she won a general election in a landslide victory last November which, without the intervention of the coup, would have given her administration a second term of five years, thereby threatening to weaken the stranglehold that the military has exercised on the country’s government for the past half-century.  She appears sad and resigned in the photo of her that has been released to the public, but reports indicate that she has not knuckled under and that she continues to maintain the legitimacy of the party that elected her, saying that “Our party grew out of the people so it will exist as long as people support it.”

Belarus’ Alexander Lukashenko must take the prize for sheer nerve.  One of his most vocal critics is Roman Protasevich, founder of the social media news channel NEXTA, which played a crucial role in the protests in Minsk last summer.  Protasevich was traveling on a Ryanair flight from Athens to Vilnius, which was diverted to Minsk for an emergency landing because it was notified of a bomb threat. A Belarusian MiG-29 fighter jet was sent to intercept the plane and escorted it to the airport.  The bomb threat was fictitious; it was merely a device to enable Belarus security agents to arrest Protasevich after the plane landed.  Some of the passengers reported that Protasevich went into a panic as the plane was being diverted and that they asked him what was happening.   “He said what it was,” said one of the passengers, “and added, ‘The death penalty awaits me here.’”  Sofia Sapega, his girlfriend, was also taken by the Belarus guards; the whereabouts of both of them are currently unknown.  Various European countries have reacted furiously and the EU foreign ministers are meeting to determine what action to take in response.  Whether they will have the resolution to chastise Lukashenko appropriately or, in the style of the U.N., to content themselves with verbal complaint remains to be seen.

India’s official death toll from the COVID virus is now well over 300,000.  Of these, 100,000 were recorded within the last month.  Mortality data in India is poor and deaths at home often go unregistered, especially in rural areas.  The number of deaths in the country that are medically certified is about 22%, which means that the actual death toll could be well over 1 million.  The vaccine rollout has not been handled effectively by the national government.  Several Indian states have halted the COVID-19 vaccination drive for those in the 18-44 age group due to a shortage of vaccine supplies.  These include Chhattisgarh, New Delhi, Karnakata, Maharashtra and Rajasthan, all of which are among the worst-affected by the current second wave of the pandemic.  Nonetheless, New Delhi plans to ease its lockdown restrictions beginning on May 31^st, citing the declining numbers of new COVID cases.

In the U.S. the virus continues to decline and vaccinations are progressing, despite the slowdown.  At this point just under half of the adult population and nearly three-quarters of all seniors are fully vaccinated. 

In other matters American politics continues to provide its characteristically eccentric style of functioning, as the following example will illustrate.

Mayor Lovely Warren (yes, that is really her name) of Rochester is a fierce anti-gun advocate and a vocal supporter of New York’s restrictive gun-control laws.  Thanks to a recent raid from the city police, several illegally-owned guns have been seized and removed from the owners’ homes – including two from Warren’s own residence.  One was an unregistered pistol in her possession and the second was a rifle belonging to her husband Timothy Granison – who had been convicted of armed robbery in the 1990s and who as a result is unable to legally own a firearm of any kind.  An illicit cache of cocaine was found in Granison’s possession as well.  Warren thus qualifies for membership of that decidedly unlovely group of American politicians who consider themselves above the law that they have sworn to uphold.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 167,970,849; # of deaths worldwide: 3,486,718; # of cases U.S.: 33,919,619; # of deaths; U.S.: 604,388.

How pandemics wind down – Encouraging news from the CDC – Hiking up to Kennedy Peak – Evening statistics

I recently speculated on how pandemics come to an end and in particular how this one will be considered to be over and done with.  To some extent this question was rhetorical, but I may soon obtain an answer all the same. 

In a general sense, all pandemics come to an end because the pathogen stops spreading after a certain portion of the population acquires immunity, either through infection followed by recovery or through immunization.  Our immune systems learn enough about the virus to fend off the deadliest manifestations of infection, at least most of the time. Instead of causing waves of devastating illness, over time the viruses come to trigger small surges of milder illness:  “endemic,” as they are then termed. The influenza that caused the devastating pandemic of 1918, for instance, has over time become seasonal flu.  This transition of COVID from pandemic to endemic could come about fairly soon in our own country, in which a large percentage of the population has acquired immunity either through successfully overcoming the viral infection or through the vaccines.  About 128 million adult Americans (nearly half of the adult population) are fully vaccinated and about 27 million Americans have been infected and subsequently recovered (the others have either succumbed to the disease or are active cases).  There is some overlap between these two categories, but at this stage it seems likely that, in very approximate terms, close to 60% of the adult American population has acquired immunity.  An additional 30 million adults have received one dose and it seems likely that they will eventually receive their second dose, which will increase this figure to 70% or more.  And although the pace of vaccinations with regard to people getting a first dose has declined, it is still ongoing.  The CDC has said that the end is “in sight”; Dr. Walensky is “cautiously optimistic.”  The figures bear out this stance.  Infections and deaths continue to decline in this country.  The total of new infections today was under 15,000; the number of deaths was well under 300.  Even in India the pace of daily new infections and deaths is steadily declining. 

This issue came up during the hike I led today for assisting hike leaders in the Capital Hiking Club to get re-acquainted with the trails in case their skills have grown rusty during the past several months.  Two of the participants are medical professionals and they say that all COVID-related restrictions may be lifted in as short a time as a few weeks – that the CHC goal of resuming bus hikes in early August is not only feasible but may even be on the conservative side.

The hike in question ascended via the Stephens Trail to the Massanutten Trail, and from there to Kennedy Peak.  The deck at the top of the fire tower at the summit affords 360-degree views of the area, which includes the Shenandoah River valley (where the river bends into numerous “oxbows” as it wends its way through the meadows) and the Blue Ridge Mountains to the east.  Mountain laurel, which had barely begun to bud in the area of Shenandoah National Park that I visited yesterday, was in full bloom on much of the Stephens Trail, in some places reaching its peak.  The delicacy of the hue and texture of its petals is unsurpassed, particularly on a day like this one, with blazing sunlight pouring down from a nearly cloudless sky.  We then descended down the Massanutten Trail back to the parking area to complete the circuit:  about 9 miles and nearly 1600 feet of elevation gain.  The temperature was in the mid-to-high 80s, but the atmosphere was not unduly humid and much of the hike was well-shaded, making it a good deal less uncomfortable than I feared it might be.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 167,505,058; # of deaths worldwide: 3,477,721; # of cases U.S.: 33,895,903; # of deaths; U.S.: 603,862.

Summer temperatures arrive – Cicadas – Inconsistency about public use of facemasks – The Eden Center – The roses of Bon Air Park – Travel guidelines revised for the vaccinated – COVID in India and Latin America – The Capitol rioters – Evening statistics

Warm weather – as in close to 90 degrees or more – has come to the area.  It always is somewhat uncertain each year when the milder weather of spring will give way to the fierce heat and accompanying humidity of mid-summer.  Sometimes we are able to enjoy cooler weather until the first or second week of June, but this year the heat has arrived slightly earlier than usual.  Up to this point we have had a number of wonderful days for the season, neither too warm nor too cold, with low humidity – very different from last year, which remained fairly chilly until just a few days before the temperatures became oppressively hot.  And it is still relatively cool in the evenings, so it is not necessary to resort to air conditioning just yet.  I am certainly lazier as a result of the heat; hence the hiatus in entries.

Another sign of the shift in season is the emergence of the cicadas as their 17-year cycle comes to its dramatic end.  North American cicadas spend 99.5% of their lives underground in an immature state (known as a “nymph”).  They emerge upon maturity and are active for 4-6 weeks, looking for mates and reproducing.  The males aggregate in chorus centers and call to attract females; in my area the air is filled with their continual humming.  The females lay their eggs in the stems of woody plants, after which all of the adult cicadas die and the brood disappears.  They are quite harmless, at any rate as far as humans are concerned.  They bite only when they are handled, and their bites are not painful and do not transmit diseases.  They can damage young trees on account of their feeding upon juices flowing through tree roots and the population of squirrels may be negatively affected by a cicada cycle because the egg-laying activity of the females can damage mast crops.  There are about 3,000 species of cicada in all; the North American variety has by far the longest cycle. 

I managed to get out today, despite the warm weather, joining AD and RH with others to go along the Appalachian Trail there-and-back between Jenkins Gap and the Gravel Springs shelter.  It was about 12 miles, with 2400 feet of elevation gain.  The most dominant feature of the hike was the wild azaleas, flamboyantly pink in hue, while the air was continually scented with honeysuckle.  It was at least 10 degrees cooler in the higher elevations than in the lowlands of DC and its suburbs, with clouds to veil the glare of the sun and cool breezes to keep the humidity down.  After the hike we discussed various matters concerning the Wanderbirds club, including the annual picnic (which was canceled last year but which will be held this year) and the possibility of its imitating the Capital Hiking Club in resuming bus hikes.  Its approach, probably, will be somewhat more gradual, resorting to carpool hikes for a few weeks initially and then determining at what point resuming bus rides to the trailheads is feasible.

The managers of retail stores are clearly puzzled as to how to deal with the new CDC guidelines on facemasks.  In one store I visited on Wednesday a notice was posted stating the facemasks were optional for those who were fully vaccinated.  One of the cashiers had no facemask.  On Thursday and Friday I shopped at other stores, and in these masks were required for everyone.  There is no consistency; policies vary from one store to the next, and it is best, as before, to take along a facemask every time one goes outside of the house in case it may be needed. 

I wondered about this time last year whether the Eden Center would survive the pandemic.  It is something of a landmark in Arlington, a shopping center set up by the extensive Vietnamese community that has settled in the area.  The center has several stores that are convenient for obtaining products imported from Southeast Asia.  It certainly underwent some difficult times over the past several months; but the stores, when I visited the center on Friday, appear to be as active as before.  Its extensive supermarket is as well-equipped as ever, with an extensive variety of fish (I picked up some fresh halibut, which is practically unobtainable anywhere else), ducks roasted in the Cantonese style, a selection of vegetables that includes fresh bamboo shoots and water chestnuts., and so on. 

One reason that I went to the center is that I had driven that morning to Bon Air Park, which is about a mile away.  The park is not large but its rose garden has something of a local reputation among the communities of Arlington and Fairfax counties.  Last year the gardens were closed off and one could see the roses only from a distance; but this year there are no such restrictions and many people besides myself were strolling amongst the red, orange, white, pink, and yellow blooms, which are at this point at the beginning of their peak.

The EU is now set to admit vaccinated travelers to their various countries.  By now nearly half of the U.S. population has been fully vaccinated and over 60% have received at least one dose.  Seniors in particular have done well in this respect, with nearly three-quarters of them fully vaccinated and 85% who have received at least one dose.  All of those who obtain their second dose at least 14 days before they travel will be allowed to enter various European countries, although regulations will differ from one to another.  France will be open to vaccinated travelers by June 9^th.  Spain will also be open some time in June, although a specific date has not been set.  Germany requires a negative COVID test from all foreign travelers, regardless of whether they’ve been vaccinated or not.  Croatia, Cyprus, Estonia, Georgia, and Iceland are already open for foreign travel.  Alas, Canada will remain off-limits to American until at least June 21^st. 

The effects of the disease in India are worse than ever.  The country has run out of space to accommodate its dead.  Cremations, which are an important component of Hindu ritual, are now held in public parks because the crematoria have run out of fuel for the funeral pyres.  Burial grounds for Muslims and Christians have reached full capacity.  Only 40 million Indians are fully vaccinated, less than 3% of the nation’s population.  It is true that the rate of infection appears to have peaked.  Earlier in the month, there were over 400,000 new cases a day; now the daily average has been well under 300,000 for the past week. 

Latin America has also lost well over 1 million people, accounting for nearly 30% of the deaths worldwide.  About 89% of these have occurred in five countries:  Brazil, Mexico, Columbia, Argentina, and Peru.  

The Republicans have been trying to block the creation of an independent commission to investigate the events leading up to the storming of the Capitol on January 6^th.  Some have attempted to downplay the violence of the events on that day.  Let us hope, however, that they are not slandering the rioters by claiming that these have been leading a kind of double life, brandishing firearms and shouting death threats at the top of their lungs while all along being peaceful and completely harmless in reality.  That would be hypocrisy.

Statistics for 5/20 as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  165,823,630; # of deaths worldwide: 3,444,033; # of cases U.S.: 33,832,094; # of deaths; U.S.: 602,610.

Statistics for 5/21 statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 166,453,430; # of deaths worldwide: 3,456,978; # of cases U.S.: 33,861,716; # of deaths; U.S.: 603,395.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 167,026,921; # of deaths worldwide: 3,468,001; # of cases U.S.: 33,880,552; # of deaths; U.S.: 603,862.

Two steep ascents in Shenandoah National Park – Obesity and airline flights – Lauren Boebert receives Biblical instruction – Biden’s low-key administration – Evening statistics

I went with the Vigorous Hikers on an excursion that involved two of the steeper climbs in Shenandoah National Park:  Buck’s Ridge and Sam’s Ridge.  The first ascends about 1500 feet in a little under 2¾ miles, while the second goes over 1400 feet in 2¼ miles.  It should be added that in both cases the steepest part of the ascent occurs in the first mile; afterwards the grade becomes much less taxing.  I was apprehensive about the weather, which was forecast to be over 80 degrees; but, happily, temperatures were cooler in higher elevations and extensive shade.  The hike contained no overlooks to speak of, but it did provide an abundance of mountain and forest flora, including one area in which several pink lady-slippers grew close together.  I have never seen as many lady-slippers as in this season:  the group of pink lady-slippers here and that of yellow lady-slippers on the Dickey Ridge Trail a week and a half ago.  During the final descent down the Buck Hollow Trail, I jogged as much as I walked; the path’s angle during the first half made running easier than walking.  The hike was about 16 miles in all, and perhaps 3800 feet total of elevation gain.

Airlines may begin to weigh passengers before allowing them to board planes.  As the obesity rate in the U.S. increases, there is a legitimate concern as to whether planes will be able to accommodate the aggregate poundage of the passengers booked for a flight.  This concept is not new.  I remember an occasion when I once took a shuttle flight between Reagan National Airport and Atlantic City to work on an FAA project more than twenty years ago, along with a co-worker on the same project.  My colleague and I were both light in build, and for that reason we were sent to the rear of the aircraft, which had room for only 15 passengers and, in consequence, was obliged to place as little weight as possible towards the back end of the plane. The new FAA standards are taking into account the steadily increase in bulk of Americans over the years:  airlines are instructed to increase the average weight for female passengers and carry-ons from 145 pounds to 179 pounds in the summer and from 150 pounds to 184 pounds in the winter, while the weight for males with carry-ons will go up from 185 pounds to 200 pounds in the summer and from 190 pounds to 205 pounds in the winter. 

Representative Lauren Boebert asked her followers on Twitter to cite their favorite quotation from the Bible, and she was not slow in receiving responses.  Perhaps the most pertinent was the one who quoted Psalms 101, verse 7:  “He who practices deceit shall not dwell within my house; He who speaks falsehood shall not maintain his position before me” – a fairly blatant reference to Trump’s repeated claims that the election was stolen from him.  Another imaginative responsive came from a user who quoted the Commandment “Thou shalt have no other gods before me” and juxtaposed it with a photo of the fiberglass statue of Trump featured at the recent Conservative Political Action Conference.

There is considerable contrast between Biden’s presidency and those of his immediate predecessors, Republican and Democratic alike.  Staff members of Clinton, George W. Bush, Obama, and Trump were frequently celebrities in their own right.  Mike Donilon, Bruce Reed, Jennifer O’Malley Dillon – all of these are among the most important advisors to the President, but they shun press interviews and their names are barely known to the public.  Biden had a disillusioning experience in 1988, when he ran a presidential campaign that resulted in utter failure, due in a large part to his reliance on Patrick Caddell, a celebrity political consultant credited with electing Jimmy Carter to the White House.  Biden eventually severed relations with Caddell after a disastrous campaign that included accusations of plagiarism and exaggerations of his academic records.  “I got mired in personalities,” he told the press afterwards. “Not my opponents’ but my own political operatives. I never solved the guru problem.”  His current approach is simple:  no one on his staff is a guru.  Paul Begala, a former adviser to President Bill Clinton who himself became a well-known figure after appearing in “The War Room” documentary about the 1992 campaign, described Biden’s approach:  “There’s a blue-collar sensibility with Biden and his team. You carry your pail to work, you punch the clock. You just show up every day and do your job.”  Biden’s presidency to date is the least personality-driven administration in decades.  And after the reality-show aura of Trump’s administration, this development is a most welcome change.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 164,873,674; # of deaths worldwide: 3,417,709; # of cases U.S.: 33,773,707; # of deaths; U.S.: 601,308.

What constitutes the “end” of a pandemic? – New York lifts mandates for the vaccinated – COVID is down in this country, but not out – A measure of alleviation from India – Making bread at home – Evening statistics

How does one determine when a plague comes to an end?  In the various accounts of past epidemics I have not arrived at an answer to this question.  The 1918 influenza pandemic is an example.  It is said to have ended in early 1920, even though influenza is obviously still with us and claims a number of victims every year.  At one point the number of infections certainly dwindled, but how was it decided that it was no longer to be classified as a pandemic and who made that decision?

Such questions seem especially relevant because, in the U.S. at any rate, many government authorities appear to operating under the assumption that the pandemic has come to an end here. For instance, Governor Cuomo has announced that vaccinated people are no longer required to wear facemasks in the state of New York, indoors as well as outdoors.  How businesses are to enforce this policy has not been specified.  There is no way to verify unequivocally whether anyone has been vaccinated or not.  At this point we have no national database that registers the names of those who have been vaccinated (presumably individual states have their own databases, but that is not to be relied upon) and vaccine cards are easy to forge.  New Yorkers can use the New York State Excelsior Pass smartphone app to prove their vaccination status, but those who do not have smartphones and those who are out of state will have to use other means.  If patrons and customers merely assert that they have been vaccinated, how is any business to deny them?  New York’s vaccination rate is somewhat higher than the national average; but, even so, only 43% of its population has been fully vaccinated.  Masks are still required in certain settings, such as nursing homes, medical facilities, public transportation, airports, schools, homeless shelters, and correctional facilities.  But business such as retail stores and restaurants are on their own with regard to verifying customers’ vaccine status. 

How states manage to implement the new CDC guidelines is up to the individual state government; but I think any declaration of victory over the pandemic is premature.  All of the 50 states have reported a decline in COVID cases for the first time since the pandemic began, but we are still getting tens of thousands of new cases every day.  Deaths are now numbering in the hundreds rather than in the thousands, but their number is still far from trivial.  Less than half of our adult population has been fully vaccinated, although it is true that just under 60% have received at least one dose. 

I have already noted that the virus is more virulent in various other nations.  There is, however, some slightly encouraging news from India.  Case rates appear to have reached a plateau and are beginning to decline.  Mumbai, which previously peaked at a rate of 11,000 daily cases, is now seeing fewer than 2,000 a day. Some hospitals are seeing less demand than before, in isolated instances with a reduction of as much as 30%-40%.  The nation as a whole still has more than 3½ million patients and it is not certain the extent to which COVID is still ravaging the rural communities, where testing is only sporadically available.  Stadiums have been converted into COVID hospitals and the nation is still scrambling to obtain a sufficient supply of oxygen tanks, but the outlook is marginally better than before. 

In the midst of all of this, the tasks of daily life obtrude – including, for today, that of bread-making.  An odd little unexpected consequence of the pandemic is my introduction to the technique of baking the bread in a pre-heated Dutch oven, covered for the first 20 minutes and then uncovered for the remainder of the baking time.  The action of the steam condensing gives the loaf a thick crunchy crust that I’ve never been able to obtain through the more traditional method of shaping loaves and placing them on baking sheets.  I found out about this method during the flurry of bread recipes that were exchanged over the Internet in the early months of the pandemic, when bakeries and grocery stores often were short of supplies.  I tend to buy bread less frequently now that I am able to make loaves just as good as I’m able to find in specialty bakeries, and at a fraction of the cost. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 164,254,792; # of deaths worldwide: 3,403,708; # of cases U.S.: 33,744,843; # of deaths; U.S.: 600,507.

The battlefield of Manassas – Increased availability of the vaccine – Progress of COVID in other nations – Evening statistics

Virginia has numerous parks devoted to the sites of Civil War battlefields.  That is hardly surprising, for as the fortunes of the conflict tilted alternately to the North and to the South, soldiers swept through the state that bordered the nation’s capital and many decisive battles were fought there.  The battlefield of Manassas witnessed two important encounters.  The first of these was the first major battle of the Civil War.  Before that event, several contemporary observers believed that the entire conflict was a relatively minor matter that would be settled in the course of a few months.  The battle highlighted the military deficiencies of both sides, and of the Union side in particular:  lack of training, artillery endangered by lack of protection from the infantry, and the inability of either commander to employ his entire force effectively.  Both sides were appalled by the number of casualties, realizing belatedly that the conflict would be likely to be much more drawn-out and bloodier than originally predicted.  Although the end result was a Confederate victory, even in the South the reaction was muted:  the Southerners were well-aware that they had fewer men at their disposal than the North, and that a series of victories such as this one would eventually deplete their forces.  The second battle, in which the number of casualties was much greater, was also a Confederate victory.  This one, however, greatly buoyed Confederate morale on account of the relatively minor loss of life among the Confederate forces, and it gave Robert E. Lee the confidence to conduct the Maryland Campaign, culminating in the Battle of Antietam, which resulted in over 20,000 casualties and is still remembered as the bloodiest conflict on American soil.

The Eastern forest is a cruel graveyard.  Hardly a trace remains of the fierce fighting that took place one-and-a-half centuries ago.  There are occasional depressions in the earth that indicate where forces dug out trenches or improvised hasty graves for fallen soldiers; but for the most part the relentless pace of encroaching vegetation has obliterated any indication of the military maneuvers that at the time seemed to be of such great importance.  Along the trails there are signs posted indicating where such-and-such a battalion advanced or retreated; no doubt they are correct in their surmises, but it is impossible to discern such events from the terrain alone.  For the most part the site is indistinguishable from ordinary groves and meadows in other regional woodlands.  Buildings that functioned as landmarks in various phases of the battle are razed to their foundations; private cemeteries belonging to the families of house-owners are now merely flat patches of ground, the tombstones fallen and afterwards nearly disintegrated by the yearly onslaughts of rain and sun and wind, and preserved from being grown over by trees and undergrowth only through the dedicated efforts of park caretakers.  The park is not like, for instance, the site of the Battle of the Somme, where scars from the fighting have lingered for a century.  The majority of visitors use it as an occasion for a pleasurable stroll or ride on horseback through the woods and fields, with little regard for its sad past.  Indeed, one cannot mourn forever. 

It was to Manassas Battlefield Park that I went today, along with various other Wanderbirds.  The hike was rather a frustrating one to me:  I had gone on with JT to take an additional loop from the main route and upon returning from this loop we were misled by signs for the Second Manassas Trail that led us into a complete circle.  I’m still not certain how it happened:  we followed the signs for the trail and its red blazes without deviation and it is not clear where we could have taken a wrong turn.  But there is no arguing with the results.  What had originally been intended as an 11-mile hike resulted in about 15 miles instead.  We did get back in time to reconnoiter with the others who had taken shorter routes, so the effect of this mishap was predominantly one of irritation as opposed to any more substantive harm.  The additional (planned) loop was one I had never done before, although I have visited the park numerous times in the past.  It went past Brawner’s Farm, where the original house is still intact; it is the site of the opening phase of the second battle that took place in the area.  It has been opened only recently and it contains a small museum dedicated to the history of the fighting that took place there.

At the gathering we held after the hike I saw SM, whom I have not met for many months.  She was telling me how she had recently received her first dose of the vaccine and was looking forward to getting the second soon.  We both commented on how much easier it is now to obtain vaccination than it was a couple of months ago.  At this point nearly 60% of American adults have received at least one dose and 47.2% have been fully vaccinated.  Today’s daily infections and number of deaths were each little over 3% of the global total.  Unfortunately, vaccination rates have fallen as well. In Wyoming more than a quarter of adults said that they will “definitely not” or “probably not” receive the vaccine. In four additional states – Montana, North Dakota, Kentucky and Ohio – more than 20% of adults said the same.  This reluctance of a significant swath of the population to get vaccinated may lead to another surge of the disease in the winter months to come.

In other countries the outlook is less optimistic.

Argentina, which up to this point seemed to have been spared the worst of the pandemic, is now experiencing a second wave of the virus.  Its hospital system has not been strained to nearly the same extent as Brazil’s, but they are now at full capacity with minimal capability to cope with any new influx of patients.  Lockdown measures are in effect until May 21^st and gatherings of more than 10 people are banned.

South Africa retains its unenviable status as the epicenter of the virus in Africa.  Its vaccination rollout has undergone numerous delays.  Only about 500,000 have been fully vaccinated (less than 1% of the population).  Full vaccination rollout is not scheduled to begin until tomorrow.

Turkey will be emerging from its lockdown tomorrow.  Its government has set a goal of getting its daily case rate down to lower than 5,000 in time for the summer tourist season.  Currently the daily case rate is averaging about 15,000 daily – much better than the rate of 60,000 that was seen in mid-April, but such an improvement may not be sufficient to salvage its tourist season.  The country, which has a population of about 82 million, has administered more than 25 million doses.  But vaccination availability has become an issue; Turkey’s health minister has warned that May and June will be difficult months for vaccine procurement.  The country is also striving to develop a vaccine of its own in order to reduce dependence on foreign sources. 

Brazil continues to display widespread disregard for social-distancing rules, a trend encouraged by President Bolsonaro, the other caudillo of the Americas.  As a result, the COVID virus is spreading more rapidly than ever.  At this point more than a third of all deaths in Brazil are attributable to the virus.  Brazil’s vaccination rollout has also been slowed by lack of supply. Less than 8% of the population is fully vaccinated.

Kenya is undergoing a third wave of the virus.  Its number of daily infections and daily deaths is still relatively low, but fewer than 2% of the population has been inoculated and vaccine supplies have up to this point depended primarily on India, which of course is now in no position to export vaccines to other countries. 

Iran is undergoing a fourth wave of the pandemic.  Hundreds of Iranian cities and towns have been categorized as “Red Zones” and placed under semi-lockdown with all non-essential businesses closed.  Hospitals in Tehran are running at 100% capacity.  It has been using the Russian Sputnik vaccine but, like Turkey, is also attempting to develop a vaccine of its own in order not to be dependent on other nations for vaccine supply. 

Russia itself has been one of the worst-hit countries in recent months.  The official figure for COVID infections to date is 4.8 million, while the number of deaths is reported to be 112,000.  However, experts say that these statistics represent serious under-reporting.  Basing their calculations upon the expected number of deaths for the year and the actual number of deaths reported, they believe that the real figures are likely to be as much as five times higher.  Only 10 million Russians have been fully vaccinated, less than 7% of the nation’s population.  The Russians have not shown any great trust of the Sputnik vaccine, with many members of its health-care system among its greatest skeptics.  It actually has been rated by international medical communities as having an efficacy rate of over 91%, but the haste with which the vaccine was developed and the grandiose claims Putin has made its behalf have combined to make its reception lukewarm in the country of its origin. 

Nigeria is encountering a gradual surge in infections.  Its government, however, is taking several pro-active measures to contain it. Fresh restrictions against movement and mass gatherings have been introduced nationwide. Bars and nightclubs remain closed, and a nationwide 12 AM. to 4 AM. curfew is now in effect. Travel from Brazil, India, and Turkey is heavily restricted.  Less than 1% of its population has received vaccines, but it is making vigorous attempts to obtain more in order to continue its rollout.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 163,690,235; # of deaths worldwide: 3,392,583; # of cases U.S.: 33,712,142; # of deaths; U.S.: 600,139.

Hiking in Sky Meadows – Picnicking after the hike – Vaccination in the U.S. and other nations – Marjorie Taylor Greene’s psychological disorders – The lifting of mask mandates – Deteriorating conditions in India and Nepal – Evening statistics

Yesterday was a day for what I call “regrouping,” i.e., attending to various chores that piled up while I was on the trails:  mowing the lawn, shopping for groceries, etc.  Today, however, I joined LM and several others to hike in Sky Meadows.  It was a beautiful day – one of the many beautiful days we’ve been enjoying during this season – and we went on a 7-mile circuit hike that included the best views that the park contains, one at an upper point on the South Ridge Trail and one at the junction of the Ambassador Whitehouse and Appalachian Trails, the latter of which is known as the Paris Overlook (“Paris” is the name of the little hamlet that adjoins the park to the north).  This hike had several purposes:  1) to enjoy the scenery of the park, affording views of the valley located between the Blue Ridge Mountains and the foothills to the east; 2) to discuss arrangements for a trip LM has organized to King’s Canyon and Sequoia; and 3) by far the most important, to repair afterwards to a local winery, where we sampled the wines and shared the various dishes supplied by several of us.  We spent about two hours enjoying our picnic lunch on the winery grounds.  It is noteworthy that we spoke about the COVID virus very little, if at all.  Restrictions are lessening, vaccinations are readily obtainable, and the general atmosphere is much more cheerful and confident than it has been for a long time. 

There is ground for optimism, certainly.  Vaccines have been approved for the 12-to-15 year-old age group, and as vaccines are administered to young adolescents our rates continue to drop.  The nationwide average of new cases per day is now about 36,700, the lowest it has been since mid-September.  The latest seven-day average of daily deaths is 618, a 9% decrease from a week ago.  Of the senior citizens, 84.4% have received at least one dose and 72.4% are fully vaccinated.  The figures are somewhat less encouraging for the total population 18 years or older:  55.7% have received at least one dose and 43.5% are fully vaccinated.  It’s a substantial number, but we still are a long way from the goal of 70% fully vaccinated.  Of those who are hospitalized as a result of the COVID virus, 99.7% are unvaccinated.  We are still accounting for about slightly over 4% of daily new cases and daily deaths – much better than before, of course; but still not lower than the number of Americans in proportion to the global population. 

Other countries are steadily vaccinating as well, with varying degrees of success.  In China the rate of vaccination has doubled in the past month and is comparable to that of the U.S.  China now accounts for a third of the daily vaccinations worldwide.  The rate of vaccination in the EU, after a slow start, is now outpacing both the U.S. and China; at least 30% of the population has received one dose.  India’s vaccination rate has slowed on account of lack of access to vaccines; only 10% of the population has had a single dose.  Russia’s domestic rollout has been slow, since even its medical establishment is vary of the vaccine developed within that nation; only 9% have received one dose.  Japan’s rollout has been even slower, for a different reason.  The Japanese have not felt the urgency to get vaccinated that other countries have, since the efforts to control the COVID virus there have been more successful than in the U.S. or the EU.  As a result, only 3% have received one dose.  Of the African nations as a whole, only 1% have received one dose.  Vaccines are in short supply there.  Currently, an average of 397,000 doses is being administered per day. At that rate, it will take 11 years for 60% of the continent’s population to be fully vaccinated

Once again, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) has demonstrated her mettle.  When Marjorie Greene confronted her outside the House chamber and hurled various insults at her (scandalizing even some Republicans in the process), AOC simply walked right by her without deigning to respond, and noted afterwards that Greene is the same type of obnoxious loudmouth that she threw out of bars when she worked as a bartender.  Representative Jimmy Gomez, a Democrat member from California, has declared his intention to get Greene expelled from the chamber; and one can only hope that his attempt to dislodge this undeniably schizophrenic woman from her current position will be successful. 

Certain retailers, such as Trader Joe’s, Costco, Sam’s Club, and Walmart, say that vaccinated customers are not required to wear masks at stores in certain locations.  They might just as well say that they are rescinding their mask mandate altogether; there is no way that they can verify whether an unmasked customer has been vaccinated or not.  I certainly don’t carry my vaccine card with me every time I enter a store, and I expect that most shoppers feel the same way.  In any case, the vaccine cards are proving to be easy to forge.  Some of the more elaborate forgeries even use different hues of ink color for the two vaccine dose entries on the card to enhance the impression that the card is recording doses administered on separate occasions.

In India the crisis continues to rage.  More than a dozen of its states are reporting a 20% positivity rate.  The death toll is officially over 310,000; but the actual number may be as much as five times higher.  This figure would still leave India’s mortality rate significantly less than our own – 1000 per million of population, as opposed to 1800 per million here – but we have been losing people over a period of many months, at a steadily decreasing rate in recent months, while they were relatively unaffected until recently, with deaths going steadily upwards at a rate whose velocity greatly exceeds that of nearly every other nation.  The rates appear to be stabilizing now that lockdowns are in place for most of the states, but they are still losing 4,000 per day.

Nepal is now reporting more cases per million than India.  Nepal has long been one of the poorest countries in Asia, and its medical care system was rudimentary at the best of times, with fewer than 600 ventilators and about 18,000 doctors for a population of over 29 million.  In a rather bizarre development, mountaineers have been asked to return the oxygen cylinders they use while scaling Everest so that they can be refilled for COVID patients.  China has canceled all permits for climbers to approach Everest from its side of the mountain range, for fear of contracting the virus from contacts between climbers from the Chinese side and climbers from the Nepalese side.  May is traditionally the best month for attempting to scale the summit, and a significant amount of Nepal’s economy depends upon the tourism provided by mountain climbers.  But at least one guide, Lukas Furtenbach of Austria, has called off his attempt to complete the climb along with his team of over a dozen mountaineers, because of concerns about the COVID virus, stating that the crowded conditions at the base will probably cause the virus to spread rapidly among the hundreds of other climbers, guides and helpers who are now camped there.

Yesterday’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 162,517,550; # of deaths worldwide: 3,370,738; # of cases U.S.: 33,662,564; # of deaths; U.S.: 599,296. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 163,162,033; # of deaths worldwide: 3,383,004; # of cases U.S.: 33,695,864; # of deaths; U.S.: 599,862.  Sweden has recently surpassed us in percentage of population that has been infected with COVID, pushing our nation down the list to #10 in the nations with the greatest proportion of cases.  Our number of critical cases is no longer the largest in the world; that dubious honor goes to India.  Brazil outranks us now as well.

Completing the route from Occoquan to Harpers Ferry – Liz Cheney – Lifting of mask mandates – Evening statistics

I hiked yesterday and today with RS, completing our investigation of a multi-day route from Occoquan to Harper’s Ferry that has the potential of being the basis for a hiking event to be organized in the autumn.  Yesterday we went from Balls Bluff Park to Georges Mill Road, which terminates close to the Virginia bank of the Potomac, and today we went from Georges Mill Road to the Shenandoah St. parking area in Harpers Ferry.  Yesterday’s hike was 29 miles (including a detour we tried that did not work out) while today’s hike was much shorter, 8 miles in all.  Each hike involved about 1000 feet of elevation gain, but the ascents were never very long or steep.  We couldn’t have asked for better weather:  a few clouds, but mainly sunny, no rain, low humidity, temperatures in the high 50s and low-to-mid 60s.  During the hike yesterday we saw several views of Sugarloaf Mountain in the distance, its summit in proud isolation from the surrounding piedmont.  We spent 10 hours in our wanderings and I was too tired, when I arrived back home at about 8:30, to do much more than to take a bath in order to wash away an acre or so, eat dinner, and go to sleep. 

The hike today was rather a scramble.  The area between the proximity of Georges Mill Road and the Rte. 340 bridge does not have a formal trail, although some attempt at defining a path has been made in various places along this section of the river bank.  It provided splendid views of the Potomac, particularly at Devil’s Elbow, an extremely rocky area along one of the bends in the river.  We also visited the waterfall of a creek that passes under Rte. 340 just beyond the bridge.  The last part of the hike involved going over a new trail route, which RS helped to plot out.  Once it is complete, trail users will be able to avoid walking along Rte. 340 when going from the Harpers Ferry Adventure Center to Harpers Ferry. The trail leads from Rte. 340 parking area alongside the gas station to Split Rock, at which point the Loudoun Heights Trail can be used to go to the Appalachian Trail and thereby to proceed to the town.   It was exhilarating to be testing out a trail that eventually will be ready for general use.  The trail in its current state represents a significant improvement over the bushwhack I was forced to perform when I was last in the area.  However, there is a way to go.  Some clearing of deadfall is required and it needs to be marked; it is impossible, at this point, for a trail user to follow the path unaided.  Once we completed this portion of the hike, we used the Loudoun Heights/AT route to reach the Shenandoah St. parking area on the west side of the bridge.  As always, this route provided beautiful views of Harper’s Ferry and the Potomac River from above.

Liz Cheney has been removed from the Republican House conference chair.  Many people have optimistically predicted that Donald Trump’s influence on the Republican Party, pernicious though it may have been, would pass away like a head cold and leave no trace.  Such people are deluding themselves: Trump’s ability to make associates kowtow to him appears undiminished by his recent electoral defeat or his incitement of the raid on the Capitol.  The Republicans who ousted her are clearly embarrassed about their cravenness.  They held the meeting that dismissed her in private and they used a “voice vote,” i.e., one that recorded no numbers and no attribution to individual members as to how each of them voted.  Some of the members who favored Cheney’s retention of her post did not even learn about the timing of the vote until after it was concluded.  It is worth noting that when a formal roll-call vote was held in February for the same purpose, the vote in Cheney’s favor was 145-61. 

The CDC has lifted mask mandates for those who are fully vaccinated.  There are some caveats:  people with compromised immune systems (for example, those who have undergone medical treatment for cancer or lupus that impacts the ability to produce antibodies) should consult their physiciasn before abandoning their masks, and everyone is expected to wear masks for public transportation and in areas such as hospitals and other health care facilities.  It is unclear how this policy will be enforced:  a system that has one set of guidelines for the vaccinated and another for those who are not doesn’t seem workable, at any rate to me.  I think it best to continue to wear masks in public indoor settings (stores, restaurants, bars, gyms, etc.), and I intend to do so until the mandate has been lifted generally rather than for a specific cross-section of the population. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 161,816,462; # of deaths worldwide: 3,358,143; # of cases U.S.: 33,624,721; # of deaths; U.S.: 598,522. (I was too tired yesterday to record the statistics for May 12^th.)  It’s not easy to infer trends merely from recording statistics from one day to the next, but the average number of daily deaths from COVID is about 600, the lowest level since last July.  In some states the figures are reassuringly low:  Indiana had only one fatality yesterday and Massachusetts had none.  Even Michigan, which for weeks has reported the nation’s worst infection rate, is starting to see a decline in mortality. Over the past two weeks, cases in the state plunged from a daily average of almost 4,860 to about 2,680 on Monday.

Hiking on the Appalachian Trail in Maryland – Dr. Fauci on mask-wearing – India’s neighbors – Evening statistics

I went with the Vigorous Hikers along the Appalachian Trail from the Washington Monument State Park to the Thurston Griggs Trail, descended to the parking area, and then returned via the same route:  about 16.5 miles and 3170 feet of elevation gain.  The Thurston Griggs Trail is the steepest part of this hike, covering about 900 feet in a little over a mile.  The monument, or at any rate the original building, is the first monument to George Washington to be completed.  It was built in 1827, whereas the more well-known monument in DC was not completed until 1885.  This monument was vandalized a good deal, especially during the Civil War, and eventually reduced to rubble.  The stone tower was rebuilt in 1882, but a crack in the wall that went unnoticed and thus was not repaired again reduced the structure to ruin.  The current tower was completed in 1936.  Even though it was closed, we still were able to obtain the view of the Cumberland Valley from the top of South Mountain, on which the monument is located.  This valley is part of a migratory route for raptors such as hawks and it can get crowded in September, when the hawks pass through; but during the spring season it is less well-frequented and our group had the area to ourselves as we gazed upon the valley below.

The segment itself is a pleasant section of the AT, going through forest that seems, on account of the dense growth that screens out noises from the roads that intersect it, much more remote than it is in actuality.  The hike included an excursion along the 1/4-mile spur trail to Annapolis Rocks, which provides a 180-degree vista into the valley.  Although Hagerstown is nearby, it is is not visible from the rocks (which may be just as well) but the hamlet of Boonsboro and the lake in Greerbrier Park are readily discernable.  The cliff top is visible from I-70 close to the Hagerstown exits.  This viewpoint is a popular destination, since the parking area on Rte. 40 is only about 2¼ miles from the rocks.  Happily, it is much less crowded on weekdays.  The AT section contained an abundance of wildflowers, of course, including numerous May apples, whose creamy-white petals and vivid yellow stamens are usually well-hidden under the umbrella-like leaves but which in this area were prominent enough to be seen without necessitating any stooping. 

Dr. Fauci announced that rules for mask-wearing indoors may be relaxed “soon,” i.e., within a year’s time.  I believe that states will be reversing policy on this matter considerably earlier.  It is important to remain prudent but the nation as a whole has been vaccinating to some purpose.  Of the population 18 years of age or older, 58.4% have received a single dose and 44.7% are fully vaccinated.  Among seniors 65 years and older, 83.8% have received a single dose and 71.6% are fully vaccinated.  The vaccines are now available to young adolescents 12 years of age or older, and this group is beginning to receive them as well.  Biden has a target date of 70% of the population getting vaccinated by July 4^th.  He may be hindered in this goal by the segment of the population that has refused the vaccines to date, but these holdouts may change their minds as they see how much more freedom of movement the vaccinated have over the unvaccinated.

The severity of the pandemic in India has been spreading to its neighbors.  Nepal has closed many of its border crossings with India and has extended its lockdown to the end of May.  The situation with regard to availability of ICU beds and ventilators is similar to that of its neighbor; virtually none are now available to new patients.  Pakistan has imposed a 10-day lockdown, despite the fact that this period includes Eid-al-Fitr, one of the most important holidays in the Muslim calendar.  Health officials have warned that hospitals are operating at close to capacity and they are struggling to increase the number of ICU beds.  International flights have been slashed and border crossings with Iran and Afghanistan are closed, except for trade. In Sri Lanka cases are undergoing a similar spike, with over 2500 new cases per day, by far the largest it has seen since the pandemic began.  All travelers from India are currently barred from entering the country.  In Bangladesh, case numbers rose in early March, prompting its government to impose a national lockdown on April 5th. The lockdown has been extended to May 16th.  It also closed its land border with India for two weeks since April 26^th.  These measures appear to have been effective; the daily case rate has since diminished significantly.  In all of these instances, the figures for new case rates and mortality rate are suspect; they are probably much higher in reality than the numbers reported.  India is not exporting vaccines at this point, which means that all of its neighbors will have to get them from donor nations such as the U.S.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 160,305,091; # of deaths worldwide: 3,330,324; # of cases U.S.: 33,549,724; # of deaths; U.S.: 596,946.

Hiking in Shenandoah National Park – Land’s Run – The Republican gubernatorial convention – Tragic conditions of India – Nigeria at risk – Evening statistics

Yesterday I went with AD and RH, with several others from the Wanderbirds, along the Dickey Ridge Trail.  We had done the hike earlier this year in January, but the difference was striking.  In January, of course, the trees were bare of foliage and the groundcover was sparse.  Now, in mid-spring, the trees are in full leaf and forest vegetation is dense and verdant.  Wildflowers in abundance, of course:  starry chickweed, bluets, violets, wild geranium.  One part of the trail featured lady slippers – the yellow variety, which is less common than the pink one, at any rate in the Eastern forests – and with a profusion I have never seen anywhere else.  They are difficult to find in any case.  Usually I consider myself fortunate if I come across one at a time; on occasion I’ve seen them in twos and threes, but never in dozens.  The various species of lady slippers are becoming rarer because a number of their habitats have been destroyed.  They require an alkaline soil, and the amount of acid rain has caused their numbers to shrink.  Warming temperatures and the increase in the whitetail deer population (which browses on these and other wild orchids indiscriminately) have also taken their toll.  Why so many flourish in this one tiny section of Shenandoah National Park when they are so uncommon elsewhere remains a mystery.

There were fourteen of us in all.  The hike included a visit to the Land’s Run waterfall, where we managed to get an angle where we could view it properly (the path runs along the top of the falls), with the clear water plashing over the rocks and sparking in the sunlight.  We were rather fortunate in our timing, for the greater part of the day was rather overcast; by the time we reached the waterfall, however, the skies had cleared to some extent.  Afterwards we gathered together and had a bit of a party, as we generally do. 

One topic of discussion was the recent Republican convention in Virginia for the gubernatorial candidate.  The convention was held the day before (May 8^th) but the counting of the votes is expected to last several days.  The candidates all evaded answering the question of whether they thought Biden won the election legitimately or whether, as Trump claims, the election was stolen.  The most egregious in this respect was Amanda Chase, who has described herself as “Trump in heels.”  She openly praised the seditious rioters who stormed the Capitol as “patriots.”  As I have noted earlier, this stance is not likely to go over well in Virginia.  Northern Virginia, which contains over a third of the population of the entire state, is in close proximity to Washington D.C. and many commute there.  Donald Trump is not popular among this group, especially after the events of January 6^th.  In the recent election, 54% of Virginia’s votes went to Biden and only 44% went to Trump.   One would think that these numbers would cause the Republican candidates to distance themselves from this brazen idol of theirs; but none of them has voiced the tiniest breath of criticism towards him, let alone called him out for his treasonable behavior during the aftermath of the national election.  Amanda Chase is already showing herself to be a worthy disciple of the master she has chosen; she has vowed to call for an audit if she does not receive the nomination.  Such scenarios may be the norm for some time to come:  a losing candidate may call for an audit after any election, which will last for days and cost the state hundreds of thousands of dollars.  It may not affect the end result, but the more often such audits are held, the less confidence people will have in the electoral process – unless indeed our legislature has sufficient courage to enforce substantial penalties upon politicians who initiate ballot audits with no justification.

The U.S. cases and deaths in proportion to the global ones have fallen to 21.0% and 18.0% respectively.  Our daily increases are now 4% or less, and they are steadily declining.  But as we seem to be emerging from the pandemic, the situation is deteriorating elsewhere.

The situation in India is worse than ever.  The medical care is nearly completely destitute of beds for new patients.  In a particularly gruesome development, several dozen bodies have washed up on the banks of the Ganges River in the northern part of the country.  Several of these were partially burnt.  The explanation appears to be that they were cremated after succumbing to the virus but the shortage of wood and the increasing cost of funerals left their relatives no alternative but to put the bodies directly into the river.  Most of the country’s crematoriums have run out of spaces altogether.

And experts are expecting another “hot spot” to emerge in the near future:  Nigeria.  It has managed to control the COVID virus so far but its situation is similar to India in many ways:  densely populated cities, deep poverty, and rudimentary health care system.  Indeed, a comparison of the two would show Nigeria to be worse off than India in all three respects.  In addition, India is the world’s largest manufacturer of vaccines, whereas Nigeria must import of all its vaccines.  Only 1% of its population has received a single dose and virtually none of it has been fully vaccinated.  It does not appear possible that Nigeria could vaccinate three-quarters of its population until well into 2022. 

Yesterday’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 158,950,997; # of deaths worldwide: 3,306,142; # of cases U.S.: 33,476,570; # of deaths; U.S.: 595,812. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 159,587,806; # of deaths worldwide: 3,317,058; # of cases U.S.: 33,513,053; # of deaths; U.S.: 596,172. 

Hiking in the southern section of Shenandoah National Park – Sights along the trails – COVID and Social Security – Evening statistics

Today was quite productive, after my being rather inactive as a result of the wet weather for much of this past week.  I scouted the hike that I am scheduled to lead for the Vigorous Hikers group towards the end of the month.  The route is a new one of my devising, so it was necessary to check it out beforehand.  It turned out to be easier than I expected.  I thought it would take me about six hours and I finished it in less than five.  For once I over-estimated both the distance and the level of difficulty.  I thought the distance would be well over 17½ miles, but it is only 16½ at the most.  There is a significant amount of elevation gain – probably about 3000 feet – but the ascents for the most part are not especially steep.  As a result of this preliminary scouting I was able to get back home by 4:00 and write up the hike description with the accompanying map before dinner.  The hike is a circuit via the Brown Mountain, Rocky Mountain, Big Portal Run, Big Run Loop, and Appalachian Trails.  The section of the AT used for this hike is 8 miles, or about a half of the hike’s total.  It has numerous overlooks, with views of the Shenandoah valley to the west and of the piedmont to the east. 

I was fortunate enough to see two colorful birds, a goldfinch and an indigo bunting.  Indigo buntings are shy and even though they frequent forests like the ones in the Blue Ridge Mountains, it is not easy to see one.  I doubt whether I’ve seen more than a dozen during all of the years I’ve hiked in this region.  Goldfinches are somewhat bolder and will visit residential areas without any apparent hesitation. In some years I have encountered them on several consecutive days, but for the last few years I have not seen any and I have wondered whether their population is declining.  It was heartening to see this one; more of them to follow, I hope.

Many wildflowers were also on view:  starry chickweed, bluets, buttercups (these were especially vivid in the clear sunlight).  Pinxter azaleas were blooming in great quantities.  Some of the wildflowers that I saw will probably be gone in a couple of weeks, when I lead the hike for others; but to compensate for that, the mountain laurel is beginning to bud and will probably be in full flower by the time I come to these trails again. 

The Social Security program has actually benefitted from the virus, for a depressing reason:  80% of the COVID-related deaths in this country were 65 or older.  The number of people who received retirement benefits from the Social Security Administration rose 900,000 to a total of 46.4 million in March, the smallest year-over-year gain since April 2009. Even though many are retiring or hoping to retire earlier than they had originally planned, deaths are removing hundreds of thousands of beneficiaries from Social Security rolls.  It has already been noted how the pandemic has affected life expectancy as a whole in the U.S.:  it has decreased by an entire year, from 78,8 years in 2019 to 77.8 years in 2020.  The pace of vaccination has slowed down in recent weeks, on account of the reluctance of a substantial amount of the population to receive the vaccine; but seniors, at any rate, are taking no chances:  83% of them have received at least one dose and 71% are fully vaccinated.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:                 158,298,857; # of deaths worldwide: 3,295,950; # of cases U.S.: 33,452,659; # of deaths; U.S.: 595,580.  We have had fewer than 35,000 new cases today, which is the lowest figure for many weeks.  The U.S. is now the 19^th of countries ranked by COVID-related deaths per capita, as opposed to being among the top ten for months on end. 

The link to the complete journal is:  https://betulacordifolia.com/?order=asc

Increased social activity – Sei Shonagon, the diarist par excellence – Under-reporting of COVID cases and deaths – Will Nepal undergo India’s fate? – Evening statistics

Social life has been resuming in the past week and promises to gain momentum.  Two days ago SC visited me at my house and we had lunch together at a local restaurant.  Yesterday I went to see DC and JC at their house, where we had breakfast together, then went on a stroll in Huntley Meadows Regional Park, and lunched upon returning to their house.  All of us have been vaccinated, so we did not use facemasks.  SC’s visit marked the first time that I have had a guest indoors other than a repairman or service provider of some sort.  We tried walking together as well, but the rainy weather of two days ago cut that attempt short.  It was sunny and clear yesterday, however, and DC, JC, and I enjoyed the scenery of Huntley Meadows.  The park is the largest non-tidal wetland in the area, and a good part of the walkways consists of boardwalks, as the ground is too marshy to accommodate all but the most determined pedestrians otherwise.  The vista around the marsh is open, affording many opportunities for bird-watchers; waterfowl such as herons and red-winged blackbirds are numerous.  Frogs were continually croaking.  In the woodlands that border the marsh, many of the trees have grown to an unusual height on account of the amount of water accessible by the roots, and in parts the scene is reminiscent of the Smokies in this respect. 

DC and JC have both worked in the State Department.  Because they are fluent in both Chinese and Japanese (and JC is from Taiwan originally), the greater part of their assignments abroad have been in East Asia.  We spoke of current affairs in that region, but we also touched upon the literature of the two great East Asian cultures.  In particular, we talked of Sei Shonagon, the foremost diarist of Japan in the Heian era; and that subject is not without relevance to journals such as these.  As will be seen, she provides insight on how such diaries are written in the first place.

Sei Shonagon is not well-known in this country, but in Japan her diary has undergone a fate similar to that of George Eliot’s Silas Marner:  that of being foisted upon high school students at a time when they are too young to appreciate it.  There, however, the resemblance ends.  A woman more different in character than George Eliot can scarcely be imagined.

Some background is necessary.  In the Heian era, as the period following the establishment of Kyoto as the capital in 794 is known, the literature it produced has a peculiarity that, as far as I know, has not been duplicated in any other country or any other era:  namely, that its most important authors are all women.  The explanation given for this is that the men tended to write in a stilted would-be “classical” Chinese, just as in many European countries authors wrote in Latin before vernacular literatures were developed.  The women, on the other hand, were restricted to their own language, in which authors naturally were more eloquent.  Still, that is not the entire story.  Unlike many other cultures in antiquity and, for that matter, unlike Japan itself in many later eras, literacy in women (among the upper classes) was expected and prized.  Sei Shonagon writes of one gifted young woman whose father regarded her as a prodigy and encouraged her to become an expert about Japanese poetry – a literary scholar, in fact.

The most notable achievement of this flowering was The Tale of Genji, an extraordinary work, containing hundreds of characters portrayed with a psychological realism not at all usual until much more modern times.  The novel features convoluted genealogy trees, in which there is never any discrepancy about the relationship of even the most obscure of these men and women to each other, and a completely consistent internal calendar that covers events over a period of decades.  For the most part, however, the women authors wrote diaries rather than novels.  “Diaries” is the term to use; they are not journals in the ordinary sense and do not record events on a day-to-day basis; but rather they concentrate on impressions of the moment as well as past recollections of various events that are written down without much regard for chronological order.

The majority of the diaries are heavily influenced by the Buddhist attitude of the transitory nature of pleasures and possessions, and an overwhelming number of them contain poems of a melancholy tone that sometimes appears formulaic.  There can be no question, however, that many of the authors suffered greatly from ennui.  The upper-class women of the period literally had nothing to do.  Phrases such “suffering from leisure” or “relieving one’s leisure” frequently crop up in reference to them.  The author of the “Gossamer Diary,” as it is generally translated, contains several passages complaining about the tedium of her life, of which the following is typical:  “There is a slow drizzle.  My direction today is unlucky and so I can expect no visitors.  The world seems a dreary, cheerless place.”  (Traveling in an unlucky direction was discouraged, and a direction could become unlucky on any given occasion, depending on the movements of various divinities, as interpreted by the priests.)  The author of the Gossamer Diary, to be sure, was in a somewhat unfortunate position, being the neglected wife of a nobleman who had lost his love for her and had turned his attentions to other women; but most of the authors of the period display a kind of continual sighing and a sensation of lacrimae rerum (“the tears of things”).

Sei Shonagon, however, is the exception.  She had many personal shortcomings, but a tendency towards passive depression was not one of them.  It is quite startling, in the midst of descriptions of festivals and and ceremonies and customs that are by now thoroughly obscure, to encounter passages whose breezy freshness leaps out over the space of ten centuries:

“A preacher ought to be good-looking.  If we are properly to understand the worthy sentiments of his sermon, we must keep our eyes fixed on him while he speaks; by looking away we may forget to listen.  An ugly preacher may accordingly be a source of sin.”

Like many women of the Heian court, Sei Shonagon was quite promiscuous and experimented with a variety of partners.  At one point she was linked with a certain Narinobu, but she lamented that he “has several other attachments, not to mention his wife, and he cannot visit very often.”  To be sure, if one gets involved with a prominent official who has a crowded work schedule, I suppose his wife could be included among the unwelcome distractions that divert his attention from the important business of love-making.  For this activity in general she displays what might be regarded as a typically Japanese concern about the etiquette with which it is conducted.  She stresses, for example, the importance of the man making a suitable display of reluctance upon quitting the bedchamber on the morning afterwards:

“A woman’s attachment to a man depends largely on the elegance of his leave-taking.  If he jumps out of bed, scurries about the room, tightly fastens his trouser-sash, rolls up the sleeves of his Court cloak, hunting costume, or whatnot, stuffs his belongings into the breast of his robe, and then briskly secures the outer sash – one really begins to hate him.”

Later commentators were shocked by her laxness in amatory matters, her readiness to make others less quick-witted than herself (i.e., nearly everyone she met) the butt of her jokes, and her complete indifference to the disadvantaged living conditions of anyone of a lower rank than herself.  It was they who spread the rumor that she died in lonely and impoverished old age; but in absence of first-hand evidence this sounds like a pious fancy.  To judge by the diary itself, she was well-qualified to look after her own interests.  She was on excellent terms with the Empress, and at the same time she contrived to be good friends with the Empress’s uncle, who represented the main rival to the Empress’s own father for the position of the power behind the throne.  On occasion some of the other courtiers made deliberate attempts to embarrass her in public, but she managed, thanks to her coruscating wit, to escape scot-free nearly every time. 

In the last entry she describes how she acquired several notebooks of good-quality paper from the Empress (it was a commodity in short supply even at the Court).  With this stock of writing material on hand,

“I wrote these notes at home, when I had a good deal of time to myself and thought no one would notice what I was doing.  Everything that I have seen and felt is included.  Since much of it might appear malicious and even harmful to other people, I was careful to keep my book hidden. . . . I set about filling the notebooks with odd facts, stories from the past, and all sorts of other things, including the most trivial material.  On the whole I concentrated on things and people that I found charming and splendid; my notes are also full of poems and observations on trees and plants, birds and insects.’

It’s an accurate description of the diary as a whole.  Sei Shonagon migrates from topic to topic as the fancy takes her, sometimes recounting recent events, sometimes recollecting episodes from the past, sometimes making observations on natural history (the first entry, for instance, discusses which portion of the day is the most beautiful in each of the four seasons), sometimes making observations about social behavior, sometimes sketching the characters of people she knows, sometimes simply compiling lists (“Hateful Things”, “Elegant Things”, “Things That Are Distant Though Near”, “Things That Are Near Though Distant”, etc.).  It seems quite random at times, and yet as one progresses through the various entries, a vivid picture of life in the Heian court emerges.  It is indeed one of the most important historical documents of the age, although she had no such intention while writing it.

I can’t quite equal her claim; this journal certainly does not include everything I have seen and felt.  I have dwelt a good deal less, for instance, on personalities – necessarily, since for the past year I have spent the greater part of my time alone.  But I have tried to divert my mind in these entries from dwelling on the COVID virus exclusively and to focus on occasion on other matters.  Observations on “trees and plants, birds and insects” also obtrude; I have the advantage of Sei Shonagon here, who like the ladies of the court in general, rarely ventured outside except on specific occasions to view cherry blossoms or to hear the song of a bird related to the nightingale.  My descriptions are not as good, but they are somewhat more varied.  And, like her, I had a good deal of time to myself, thanks to the restrictions imposed upon me by the pandemic.  Perhaps, also, some of the entries may appear malicious, at any rate to certain public figures.  Some of the material will be trivial to critical minds.  To those who make that charge I can only echo her own words:  “After all, it is written entirely for my amusement and I put things down exactly as they came to me.”

The virus, of course, is still to be reckoned with.  On occasion I have referred to the probabilities of COVID-related deaths being under-reported in several countries, including our own.  The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) appears to agree.  A few days ago it published a new study that estimates the death toll in the U.S. from the pandemic is over 900,000, a figure 57% higher than the official amount.   The global death toll, similarly, is estimated to be close to 7 million instead of 3.68 million.  As these figures suggest, under-reporting may be even worse in other countries than it is here.  The government of Mexico has already admitted in late March that its figures are under-reported by at least 60%.  India and Russia both have similar undercounts, with death tolls under-reported by 400,000 apiece.  The incidence rates of nations such as Japan, Egypt, and various Central Asian countries may be under-reported by a factor of 10.  National pride is not the only reason for under-reporting.  It can be difficult to track down the data, particularly in Third World nations, where registration of deaths can be uncertain. 

Not everyone in the scientific community agrees with this study.  Other studies have confirmed that the number of excess deaths here and in other nations has exceeded the official count of COVID-related deaths, but that does not necessarily mean that all of these can be accounted for by COVID.  Sometimes the causes of death may be indirect:  for example, the pandemic fueled a surge in the use of opioids, which in turn led to a greater number of overdose deaths.  Again, the strain on hospital systems in beleaguered nations such as India has led to deaths of patients suffering from other diseases that under normal circumstances could have been avoidable. 

Nepal, like India, is undergoing a frightening increase in COVID cases and deaths.  The country’s population is about 30 million.  Case rates have increased from 100 per day in March to more than 8000.  Nepal has only about 1600 intensive care beds and fewer than 600 ventilators for its entire population. There are 0.7 doctors per 100,000 people, as compared with 0.9 doctors per 100,000 in India.  The situation is aggravated by the porous border it shares with India.  Nepalis are not required to show their passport or ID card to enter their country; and since many Nepali people have businesses in India and many Indians have businesses in Nepal, cross-border traffic is high. In recent weeks, some Indians have fled their country’s second wave, hoping to access health care in Nepal or simply to escape to another country,

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  157,523,926; # of deaths worldwide: 3,283,183; # of cases U.S.: 33,416,915; # of deaths; U.S.: 594,895.

Fringe benefits of facemasks – Lowered birth rates and life expectancy in the U.S. – The power of Trump out of office – Twitter triumphs again – Potential re-opening of Broadway – Potential re-opening of schools – Evening statistics

There is a side benefit to the mask-wearing that has come into practice as a result of the COVID virus.  The masks, after all, are not specifically designed for COVID or for any other single virus specifically; they are effective against air-borne viruses in general, including those that cause influenza.  Influenza cases have dropped dramatically this year.  Cumulative hospitalization for influenza this season is about 0.8 per 100,000.  This rate is about a tenth of the rate reported in the 2011-2012 season, which in itself had a relatively low severity rate.

Face masks have been widely used in East Asia, long before COVID was ever heard of.  I have noted in earlier entries how, during my visit to Beijing in 2000, people habitually wore face masks to screen out the particles in the atmosphere as a result of air pollution.  In addition, Beijing is subject to wind storms from the Gobi desert and one frequently encounters grains of sand hurtling through the air from the gales.  In many East Asian cities people wear masks during the flu season as a matter of course – quite a sensible precaution, in view of the fact that population density of such cities is much higher than, for example, New York or Los Angeles.  It is possible that even when the COVID virus is no longer a threat the habit of wearing face masks during the colder months will remain in place for Americans as well, not as a result of any mandate but, as in East Asia, on account of citizens’ preference in such matters. 

Birth and fertility rates dropped to record lows in 2020.  The number of U.S. births in 2020 fell 4% from 2019, the lowest level since 1979. The figure is double the average annual rate of decline of 2% since 2014 and marks the sixth consecutive year that the number of births has dropped.  The fertility rate was below replacement level:  i.e., more people died in the U.S. than were born during the past year.  Concerns about the pandemic have fueled the trend but the cost of rearing children is also a contributing factor.  Life expectancy, similarly, has been affected by the pandemic.  From January through June of 2020, the average was 77.8 years for the entire U.S. population, down from 78.8 years in 2019. That is the lowest level since 2006.

Liz Cheney will be facing a vote within the Republican Party to remove her from her position as conference chair.  The vote may be held as early as next week.  Cheney has been one of the most vocal of Trump’s critics within the party, and she is one of the ten representatives who voted for his second impeachment. The fact that her leadership position is jeopardized on this account – and her accusers make no secret of the matter, not even pretending to find fault with her for any reason – shows plainly the extent to which the Republican Party is still in the thrall of Trump. He has been impeached twice, grotesquely mismanaged the pandemic crisis, botched his bid for re-election, and has overseen an administration continually mired in scandal and chaos since its inception – and it makes no difference.  Even on the day that his suspension from Facebook has been extended for at least six months and regardless of the fact that he currently holds no office whatever, he still has the power behind the scenes to issue orders and get them carried out by his lackeys. 

But at any rate there is always Twitter to cheer us up.  The spinelessness of the Republican Party, happily, is not contagious.  Donald Trump attempted to set up a new Twitter account via his staff.  The account was called “@DJTDEsk” and its intended purpose was the posting of statements from Trump and broadcasting updates on his new website “From the Desk of Donald Trump.”  But the administrators of Twitter saw through this maneuver and took down the new account within 24 hours.  I have fantasies of Trump reacting like the Witch in “The Wizard of Oz” after receiving the news:  “Oh, what a world, what a world!  Who would have thought that a good little social media network could destroy all my beautiful wickedness?”

On a more optimistic note, Broadway is re-opening in September.  All shows have been closed since March 2020.  It is not clear yet whether the regulations currently in place regarding social distancing will be enforced at performances.  It simply is not economically feasible for shows to perform to audiences of 50% capacity; theater is dependent on contributions from patrons even under optimal conditions.  Robert Mujica, the New York State budget director, has announced that show openings will occur on a rolling basis and that the state will conduct pilot programs in indoor spaces, during which the capacity will gradually increase.   

Similarly, Education Secretary Miguel Cardona announced that he expects all schools to re-open fully in September.  About 40% of the nation’s schools are still teaching remotely at this point, while an additional 20% are using hybrid systems, partly online and partly in-person.  If this goal proves to be feasible, it is good news indeed; as Cardona himself has remarked, students do not learn as well from online classes, to say nothing of the loss of social conditioning at a critical period in one’s development.  My friend RK has on occasion spoken to me about the difficulties that she has encountered from online teaching.  If the students’ attention wanders and they decide to concentrate on their cell phones instead of the lessons she is trying to impart, she is powerless to prevent them. 

Yesterday’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 155,811,206; # of deaths worldwide: 3,254,809; # of cases U.S.: 33,320,094; # of deaths; U.S.: 593,130.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 156,669,459; # of deaths worldwide: 3,268,945; # of cases U.S.: 33,367,076; # of deaths; U.S.: 593,992.

Chauvin’s verdict in doubt – “Breakthrough” COVID cases – Giuliani appeals (vainly) to Trump for aid – Evening statistics

Some depressing news:  Brandon Mitchell, one of the jurors in the Derek Chauvin, has admitted to concealing his having attended a Black Lives Matter rally calling for Chauvin’s imprisonment before the trial began – an offense that may invalidate the verdict and necessitate the trial being conducted a second time.  People do not seem to comprehend that the Queen of Hearts’ motto, “Sentence first – verdict afterwards,” was intended as satire and has no place in real-life trials.  If I had been summoned to be a juror in such a case I would have admitted during the screening process to believing beforehand in the defendant’s guilt; but if ordered to serve on the jury I would have listened attentively to the arguments on both sides before participating in the decision for the verdict.  Mitchell’s dishonesty on this point may easily result in a mistrial and he himself could be charged with jury tampering.  At times it seems as if those who are the most greatly affected by Chauvin’s crimes are the ones most determined to shield him from their consequences.  Already Eric Nelson, Chauvin’s attorney, has filed a motion for a mistrial on account of the jurors not being sequestered for the duration of the trial (which meant, among other things, that while pondering their verdict they were thoroughly aware of Maxine Waters’ threats against them if they failed to find Chauvin guilty); and the sole result of this episode of juror misconduct will be to bolster his case.

There is a cautionary tale in the headlines as well.  Alan Sporn, the owner and president of Spornette International – a firm that supplies brushes for the beauty supply industry – died of COVID about six weeks after being fully vaccinated.  He contracted the disease through attending dinner in a restaurant with friends, one of whom was discovered afterwards to have been infected.  Sporn had been diagnosed with chronic lymphocytic leukemia in 2019; and although he had not required treatment, this condition had lowered his antibody count by a considerable margin.  Anyone who has had an auto-immune disease such as lupus or cancer or HIV, it turns out, is at risk even after getting the vaccine.  In one study from King’s College, data showed that three weeks after one dose of the Pfizer vaccine, an antibody response was found in 39% of solid cancer patients and just 13% of people with blood cancer, compared to 95% in healthy individuals.  Up to this point about 5,800 people have become infected after getting vaccinated and 74 have died – which actually is a fairly small number, considering that over 106 million Americans are fully vaccinated by now and nearly 148 million have received at least one dose. 

Rudy Giuliani’s allies are pressing Donald Trump’s team to help him pay for his growing legal bills.  They might just as well have spared themselves the effort.  We all know by this time how Trump repays the loyalty lavished upon him by his followers and how he clings to his money with a fidelity that his wives have never experienced.  In addition to the recent seizure of his records by the Justice Department, Giuliani is contending with defamation suits from two voting machine companies, Dominion and Smartmatic, each of which is seeking over $1 billion in damages.  Giuliani is certainly in need of assistance; about a year ago he complained (thinking that he was off-line when in fact he had forgotten to terminate his telephone conversation with a reporter from the Daily News) that he had “about five friends left.”  That number has certainly not increased over the past several months.  He will wind up like the majority of Trump’s erstwhile supporters:  ruined in reputation, mired in lawsuits, mocked, scorned, and deserted. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:                 154,963,911 # of deaths worldwide: 3,240,515; # of cases U.S.: 33,273,847; # of deaths; U.S.: 592,396.  There is a sobering statistic in the midst of the current optimistic mood.  The cumulative number of COVID infections reached just over 10% today:  over one person in 10 in our nation has by now been infected with the disease.  Our mortality rate is slightly under 1.8%, which is lower than the global average but which has resulted, as can be seen above, in nearly 600,000 deaths.

Fox News immune to romance – The imprecision of the concept of herd immunity – COVID continues to wane in the U.S. – New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut plan to lift restrictions – How COVID aggravated the opioid crisis – The good results of the Nigerian response to COVID – Evening statistics

From time to time journalists indulge in a species of spitefulness that is occasionally described as “feline” – although real felines would have much more sense.  Last week President Biden, while walking with his wife, bent down, plucked a dandelion from the grass, and presented it to her as a gesture of affection.  Whereupon Laura Ingraham and Fox News contributor Raymond Arroyo mocked Biden for handing Jill Biden a “weed.”  Clearly it hasn’t occurred to this precious pair that a plant that might appear as a weed to them is a pleasing saffron-colored flower to others.  Then again, in all probability they do not consider anything that is not especially ordered from a florist’s shop to be a legitimate flower at all and that wildflowers, on the rare occasions that they bother to notice them, register in their minds simply as blurs.

Experts have recently warned that “herd immunity” to the COVID virus, in the traditional sense of the phrase, will probably not occur in this country, or anywhere else.  The number of vaccinations being administered is slowing down on account of the reluctance of a certain segment of the population to receive them.  In addition, the percentage of vaccinations varies from location to location.  For example, even if the U.S. were to achieve a 90% vaccination rate as a whole (which is unlikely) and an isolated rural area has only 70% of its population vaccinated, the virus will accordingly make headway among the 30% who are unvaccinated. The virus is not going to go away, but it should at any rate become containable, just as influenza is.  When COVID expanded during this past autumn, our hospitals were overwhelmed.  At this point the number of new daily infections requiring hospitalization is relatively small and it continues to decrease.  

For example, the seven-day average of daily new cases is below 50,000, the lowest figure to date since October.  This figure represents a decrease of 17% from that of the previous week.  Nearly 45% of Americans have received at least one dose of a vaccine, and 32% are fully vaccinated.  Of those aged 18 and older, 56% are at least partially vaccinated and 40% are fully vaccinated.  Biden has said that Americans may be able to celebrate the Fourth of July in the usual manner by gathering with family and friends. 

New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut all plan to lift most of the COVID-related restrictions on May 19^th.  Curfews will no longer be in force, businesses will re-open, and offices, restaurants, museums, and theaters will no longer be subject to capacity limits, although they will need to maintain the 6-foot social distancing requirements recommended by the CDC. 

Earlier in these notes I speculated whether drug addiction would increase as a result of the isolation enforced in previous months by the pandemic.  Recently the CDC estimated that 90,237 people in the U.S. died of opioid overdoses between October 2019 and September 2020. The figure is the highest ever recorded since the opioid crisis began in the late 1990s.  The number of American adults who reported symptoms of anxiety or depression between April 2020 and February 2021 rose by 27% over the previous year, while emergency room visits for drug overdoses increased by 36% in the same period.  The figures are saddening but not surprising.  It needed no gift of prophesy to foresee that stress from the pandemic, the increased number of people forced to live on their own, and the increased unemployment would create an environment in which drug addiction would flourish.

Passengers who have visited India, Turkey, or Brazil within the past 14 days will be denied entry to Nigeria as being unsafe.  Nigeria, in fact, has taken effective steps against the virus from the very beginning.  At this point it has a case rate of 785 per million of its population and a mortality rate of 10 per million, an extraordinarily low number for a country with nearly two-thirds as populous as the United States and one with a health care system much less developed.  The recent campaign against polio has assisted them; the facilities that were developed to vaccinate the population against polio were reused once vaccines for COVID became available. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 154,165,915; # of deaths worldwide: 3,226,589; # of cases U.S.: 33,229,108; # of deaths; U.S.: 591,514.

Another club-like hike – Portugal’s new bridge for pedestrians – Mounting crisis in India – Evening statistics

I met with various Wanderbirds members to take a hike led by PE in the Patuxent River Park.  This park borders Jug Bay on the Patuxent River and contains a network of trails that cross along the marshy area adjacent to the little bay – although the trails themselves, it must be noted, are not at all muddy and are in fact extremely well-maintained.  Although the hike was eight miles, similar in length to the one I led yesterday, it presented quite a contrast in other respects.  The trails of the Massanutten area are almost uniformly rocky, and the ascent to Sherman Gap was long and steep.  Today we had little elevation gain (about 500 feet in all, upon short, gentle hillsides) and there were scarcely any rocks on the trail at all.  The hike offered as much to the ear as it did to the eye; numerous birds of many different species were uttering their characteristic calls.  PE has considerable ornithological knowledge and was able to identify the birds by their individual songs.  And afterwards we had lunch together in the parking area, feasting on various contributions, mainly from PE and AD, such as drinks, cut vegetables, hummus, fruit, and so on.  It was very reminiscent of the post-hike festivities of the Wanderbirds.  FH, with whom I carpooled yesterday, was one of the participants and we agreed that this hike was a good way to wind down from the exertions of the preceding day.

The Arouca Bridge, the world’s longest pedestrian bridge, has been formally inaugurated today.  It is a suspension bridge about 1/3 mile long, spanning the Paiva River in Portugal    Children under age 6 are not allowed on it and all visits must be accompanied by guides.  The cost is 10-12 euros and passage across the bridge must be booked via a local website.  The river flows about 575 feet below the metal walkway, so it is not for the faint-hearted.

India is now facing a grim choice.  Its government has been reluctant to initiate a complete lockdown, although several individual states – such as Odisha, Delhi, Maharashtra, Karnataka and West Bengal – have lockdowns of their own and others, such as Uttar Pradesh, have night curfews or weekend lockdowns.  India has already endured a 68-day lockdown last year, which resulted in millions of migrant workers unemployed and running out of money, while many of the poorest citizens, especially undernourished children and pregnant women who rely on government programs, struggled to access benefits.  Immunization programs came to a halt during this period, and those suffering from serious illnesses (including those other than COVID) had difficulty in accessing crucial health services.  The government’s reluctance to repeat this experience is understandable, but it may have no alternative.  The country’s case count is now well over 19 million, while the official death toll is over 215,000; in all probability the actual number is much higher.   Case rates are projected to continue rising for the next two weeks at a minimum, and the daily death toll may come to exceed 13,000.  Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 153,467,820; # of deaths worldwide: 3,215,537; # of cases U.S.: 33,179,285; # of deaths; U.S.: 591,056.  Today’s daily U.S. case increase is 4.4% of the global total and its death toll is 3.3% of the global total, the first time that they are proportionate to our population in relation to that of the world at large since I can remember.  Part of the reason, of course, is that the case increase and death count in India are now so high.  It is also true, however, that these increases are the lowest that we’ve seen for several months. 

Hiking in the Massanuttens – The road to herd immunity – CDC’s cautious optimism – Evening statistics

I went with some of the Capital Hiking Club hike leaders to the Massanuttens.  It was a sort of conditioning hike.  Several of the leaders have had considerably less opportunity to be out of doors than I have, and they are desirous of getting some training to get them back into reasonable trim.  We started from Elizabeth Furnace and went up the Sherman Gap Trail to the ridgeline, a long ascent that becomes quite steep towards the end.  Then we went along the ridgeline, from where we caught glimpses of the valley below, had lunch at Shawl Gap, and descended from there back to Elizabeth Furnace:  about 8¼ miles and perhaps 1800 feet of elevation gain.  We saw numerous wildflowers, including several not normally seen at lower elevations:  bluets, dwarf iris, and an occasional lady-slipper.  Several butterflies flitted across the paths.  It was a beautiful day, cool enough to prevent us from over-heating ourselves during the steep ascent to the ridgeline.

FH and I drove together to the trailhead.  Since we are both vaccinated, we did not wear facemasks while riding in the car, and FH sat beside me in the front rather than in the back seats.  It felt strangely reckless at first after all of the caution we’ve been forced to exercise over the past several months, but eventually it came to seem not at all strange.  Indeed, the pace of vaccination was one of our principal topics of conversation during the drive to the trailhead.  At this point 44% of the U.S. population has received at least one dose, with 31.2% fully vaccination.  Among adults 18 or older, the figures are 55.8% for having received a single dose and 39.8% for having been fully vaccinated.  Among seniors 65 or older, the figures are 82.6% for having received a single dose and 69.3% for having been fully vaccinated.  This last statistic is particularly significant, for seniors are by far the most likely to require hospitalization after contracting the virus.  We now account for just under 8.5% of the critical cases worldwide, a much lower figure than it was a few months ago. 

As always, any note of optimism must be tempered with caution.  We have not reached the so-called “herd immunity” yet; that condition requires 70%-85% of the adult populace being fully vaccinated.  Eventually the vaccine must be available to adolescents; they are certainly more resistant to the disease than seniors, but they are by no means immune.  Currently the vaccine is available to anyone 16 years or older.  However, the CDC is attempting to make vaccines available to those in their early teens, i.e., from 12 years old to 15 years, as well.  Based upon the decreasing daily case rate, the decreasing daily death rate, and the increasing number of vaccinations, Dr. Rochelle Walensky said that a full re-opening by July 1^st is feasible.  As she noted, however, “the virus has tricked us before,” and it is premature to declare victory at this stage.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 152,783,372; # of deaths worldwide: 3,205,683; # of cases U.S.: 33,145,463; # of deaths; U.S.: 590,700.