June 29-30, 2021

Mask wearing in public – Vaccination rate slows down – Traffic, air and road, for Fourth of July weekend – Evening statistics

The easing in mask-wearing requirements is still sporadic.  Today, when I visited my mother’s assisted-living facility, masks were still required, which seems reasonable enough for a building whose residents all fall within the most susceptible segment of the population at large.  Somewhat more puzzling is the requirement to wear masks at the local bank, in an area where the large majority of stores and services such as barbers no longer impose this restriction.  At this point I still take a face mask with me whenever I leave the house:  it is possible that I won’t have to use it for performing any errands I undertake on a given day, but it still remains not at all certain.

We are not going to reach the goal of 70% of all adults having received at least one dose by July 4th, as Biden had hoped.  At present the amount of adults who have received at least one dose is 66.5% and the amount of fully vaccinated adults is 57.4%.  Still, we should be able to claim that two-thirds of American adults will have received at least one dose by July 4th – quite a respectable number, although of course one hopes for better over the next few months.  These hopes may go unfulfilled; at this point only about 3% of those who have not yet been vaccinated plan to get a vaccine as soon as they can. 

This weekend is expected to be the busiest on the roads since the pandemic began, indeed, the 43 million Americans expected to drive on the Fourth of July weekend will exceed the amount of drivers during that same weekend in 2019 by 5%.  This is so, despite the steadily increasing price of gas, the highest it has been since 2014.  The current national average is $3.09.  Air travel is also supposed to be congested as well.  The destinations are still mainly domestic for the most part, with Miami, Orlando and Las Vegas being the top choices for travelers, but some are venturing on international travel as well, chiefly to Mexico and the Caribbean nations.

Yesterday’s statistics as of 11:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 182,580,354; # of deaths worldwide: 3,953,846; # of cases U.S.: 34,527,493; # of deaths; U.S.: 619,980      .

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 182,953,005; # of deaths worldwide: 3,962,118; # of cases U.S.: 34,542,406; # of deaths; U.S.: 620,212.

June 27, 2021

A winery hike – Joyous return to Rappahannock Cellars – Kim Jong-Un sheds some poundage – A North Korean’s perspective on American college campuses – Evening statistics

I returned to Shenandoah National Park today to hike with LM and four others, with a visit to a winery afterwards.  We started from the Dickey Ridge Visitor Center and covered the Fox Hollow and Snead Farm loops, returning via the fire road from FAA tower at the summit.  It was a fairly brief hike, about 6¼ miles and 1200 feet of elevation gain, but it was not without adventure.  At one point we saw a bear in the distance on the trail.  It was no more eager for an encounter than we were, and immediately turned his back to us and went off into the bushes.  The trails were well-shaded, but we did not receive the refreshing breezes of yesterday.  Still, it was not unduly hot at the elevation where we were hiking. 

Afterwards we repaired to the winery – none other than the Rappahannock Cellars, where LM, LH, MM, and I had received so welcoming a reception nearly a year ago in July. There were more customers today than there had been during our previous visit, and as a result the attention we received was less personal than before; but they were very polite and helpful nonetheless, and we had no difficulty in securing a table in the covered patio on the third floor.  There we laid out the provisions we had brought for the occasion:  various cheeses, bean dip, fruit (including some excellent sour cherries that LH had picked up at a farmer’s market), crackers, lunch meats, and cookies.  There were a few other customers who came up to the patio at times, and the display of eatables that we had assembled seemed to inspire an emotion akin to awe:  one young woman asked, in a voice of wonder, “Are you all retired?” and another customer actually took a photo of us to send to her relatives.  As before, we sat about two hours together, animatedly discussing both political and personal matters while we repeatedly filled our glasses with the wine we had purchased before ascending to the patio.  Social gatherings such as these are now easier to obtain than they were earlier, but they are to be cherished nonetheless.

North Koreans are reportedly concerned about Kim Jong-Un’s “emaciated” appearance.  Kim, who is 5’8” tall, previously weighed about 310 pounds, but now seems to have lost 30-45 pounds in recent months.  His compatriots’ solicitude seems somewhat misplaced:  even with the maximum amount of weight loss he would still amply qualify for the “obese” category.  It is true, however, that no one knows whether this relatively rapid weight loss is the result of deliberate changes in his diet to slim down or the result of health problems.  Both his father and his grandfather died as a result of heart issues.

Yeonmi Park, a defector from North Korea who eventually made her way to the U.S., says that her new country’s future is as bleak as that of the country she left behind her.  She became a student at Columbia University, where, according to her, she was subjected to the same “anti-Western sentiment, collective guilt and suffocating political correctness” that she received from her North Korean educators.  During orientation at Columbia, for instance, she was scolded by a university staff member for admitting she enjoyed classic literature such as Jane Austen.  Then, too, she was nonplussed by the deliberate confusion of language, with every class requesting students to declare their preferred pronouns.  “English is my third language,” she said.  “I learned it as an adult. I sometimes still say ‘he’ or ‘she’ by mistake and now they are going to ask me to call them ‘they’? How the heck do I incorporate that into my sentences?”  Yeonmi added that after getting into several arguments with her teachers she “learned how to just shut up” in order to maintain a good GPA and thereby to graduate.  “Even North Korea is not this nuts,” she said. “North Korea was pretty crazy, but not this crazy.”  Having myself received an education at an Ivy League university, I can readily understand her dismay; although I’m bound to say that the oppressiveness was less apparent at the graduate level.  I believe that she is mistaken in taking the Ivy League campus as representative of the U.S. at large; but there can be no doubt that the amount of double-think that goes on within these campuses has to be heard (and read) to be believed.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 182,173,963; # of deaths worldwide: 3,944,908; # of cases U.S.: 34,509,025; # of deaths; U.S.: 619,568.

June 26, 2021

Hiking from Elkwallow in Shenandoah National Park – The delta variant of the virus – Evening statistics

I went with AD and RH and others on the Appalachian Trail from Elkwallow Wayside to Gravel Springs Hut and back, about 12 miles and 2500 feet of elevation gain in all.  We met some volunteers mowing away various weeds on the trail.  The decline in mountain ashes as a result of the emerald ash borer has led to more direct sunlight and less space occupied by tree roots, both of which encourage grasses and smaller shrubs to flourish and to invade the trails.  Although the sky was gray and overcast, with occasional bursts of rainfall, during the drive to Shenandoah National Park, the ridgeline in the park itself was relatively clear and there was minimal precipitation.  Summer humidity has returned with a vengeance, but the ridgeline was at least 10 degrees cooler than the residential areas below.  This section of the AT had more overlooks than I recollected, and we had many sweeping views to the west of the Shenandoah Valley below.

The delta variant was mentioned during the hike.  The WHO is urging people to continue to wear masks, even if they are vaccinated.  The variant is even more infectious than the original virus and has spread quickly; originally confined to India, it has now surfaced in at least 92 countries.  In the U.K. it is the dominant strain, and it may become so in the U.S. as well.  Already it accounts for as much as a fifth of all new COVID infections nationwide.  The symptoms differ from the original COVID virus; instead of coughing and loss of sense of smell and taste, they resemble those of a bad cold, with headache, runny nose, sore throat, and fever.  It is possible that states will be implementing mask mandates again.  New cases of the COVID virus have been developing at a fairly steady rate for the past several days – about 11,000 cases daily. 

It is unfortunate that the pace of vaccinations is slowing down, having dropped to about 300, 000 per day.  Barely 66% of all adults have received one dose and only 56.5% are fully vaccinated – not very large increases from the figures of a week earlier.  About 13% of all adults say definitely that they will not receive the vaccine, with an additional 7% will take the vaccine only it is required for work or other activities.  There is one slightly optimistic note:  the Pfizer vaccine appears to be effective in warding off the variant, with an effectivity rate of 88% (as opposed to 93% effectivity against the Alpha variant and 94% against the original virus strain).  Data is not available yet for the Moderna vaccine, but it uses a similar technology and the hope is that it will have a similar degree of efficacy. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 181,530,161; # of deaths worldwide: 3,932,276; # of cases U.S.: 34,488,957; # of deaths; U.S.: 619,333.

June 25, 2021

The plague of grasshoppers – Michael Fanone’s pleas on behalf of the Capitol defenders fall on deaf ears – Evening statistics

For all of the commotion that has been made about the swarms of cicadas here – which are perfectly harmless – a much more malevolent type of swarm is appearing in the West as a result of the drought.  Grasshoppers are emerging even as the drought is causing waterways to dry up and wildfires to blaze.  Agriculture officials are launching the largest grasshopper-killing campaign since the 1980s, spraying the pesticide diflubenzuron to kill grasshopper nymphs before they develop into adults.  It’s a fairly drastic solution, since the spraying will kill other insects as well, such as bees and butterflies; but it’s difficult to recommend an alternative.  The grasshoppers thrive in the drought, which lessens exposure of grasshopper eggs to parasites that need moisture, and their number is expected to peak in roughly two months, when the insects will reach 2 to 3 inches in length and become so prevalent they’ll start to eat more plant matter on the ranches they infest than cattle can.

Michael Fanone, a police officer who was severely injured during the riot at the Capitol on January 6th, has pressed Kevin McCarthy to denounce: 1) the 21 House Republicans who voted against the Gold Medal bill that would recognize and honor the officers who fought to secure the Capitol, 2) Representative Andrew Clyde’s statements regarding Jan. 6th that compared the rioters to ordinary tourists, and 3) the theory that the FBI was behind the Jan. 6 insurrection.  He might as well have spared himself the effort.  Fanone underwent a traumatic experience during the riot:  he was tased multiple times, dragged into the mob, and beaten with a flagpole, leading to concussion and a heart attack.  Over 140 police officers were injured that day and one would imagine that the “law and order” party would hasten to show them sympathy and support, but it did not work out that way.  So great is Trump’s baneful influence that even seven months after he has lost the election Republican senators and representatives will not bestow the slightest amount of assistance upon the men who defended the Capitol and may have saved their own lives, for fear of appearing to criticize Trump even indirectly.  After many days of stalling, McCarthy finally did consent to meet with Fanone to discuss the aftermath of the riot, but he dismissed Fanone’s request with frigid indifference.  As might be expected, most of the Republicans were stricken with silence with respect to this episode, with one notable dissentient voice.  Adam Kinzinger, who had shown his independence earlier by voting for Trump’s impeachment, blasted Republicans who have taken to downplaying the severity of the violent insurrection.  “Michael Fanone was tortured,” he said.  “And if we don’t take responsibility for what happened six months ago because we’re so concerned with winning an election in a year and a half, I don’t know what that says about us as a party.”

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 181,158,943; # of deaths worldwide: 3,924,395; # of cases U.S.: 34,481,754; # of deaths; U.S.: 619,134.

June 24, 2021

Hiking around Burke Lake – Giuliani’s license suspended – The Loudoun County school board meeting – Vaccination rates – Evening statistics

Not wishing to drive much today, I fell back on my old standby, the 11-mile Burke Lake/Lake Mercer circuit.  There were fewer people than I expected.  Admittedly today was a weekday, but it was also a day during summer vacation for the schools.  Moreover, the weather was wonderful, in the mid-to-high 70s, not at all humid, a blue sky with many cumulus clouds veiling any glare from the sun, and with many cool breezes in the shade.  No one was wearing a mask out of doors, in great contrast to what I saw during my last visit in February.  There were only a handful of people on bikes, again forming a contrast to what I have seen on this trail earlier. I can only speculate on the possible causes of the difference.  Are more people out of town now that the summer holidays have begun?  Or are people lapsing into their former indolent habits as the COVID-related restrictions have been disappearing?  Whatever the reason, I was able to pause in solitude at the viewpoints along the little peninsulas that jut into the lake, which I have not been able to do for many months.

Justice has been progressing with leaden feet as far as Donald Trump and Rudy Giuliani are concerned, but a measure of retribution has overtaken Giuliani at last.  He is now suspended from practicing law in New York state by an appellate court that found he made “demonstrably false and misleading statements” about the 2020 election.  Of course this judgment makes little difference to him financially and equally of course he has issued a blustery denial of wrong-doing; but at some level he must feel the impact of this rejection from his professional peers.  So one should never despair:  perhaps, after all, that sanguine hope I keep indulging about Giuliani (as well as his master) being reduced both in reputation and in fortune to utter destitution will come to pass eventually. 

Loudoun County has come into national prominence today:  specifically, a school board meeting in Ashburn, in which parents re-acted explosively to the school district’s proposed transgender policy, as well as to the claims that critical race theory is being rammed down students’ throats.  The Loudoun County school board has already come under fire about the transgender issue a month earlier, when Tanner Cross flatly refused to refer to biological boys as “she” and biological girls as “he.”  Cross is a physical education teacher, and by the very nature of his position he is familiar with the havoc that a transgender policy can wreak in locker rooms.  He was dismissed from his position in consequence of his refusal to back down, but a Virginia judge ruled that he had to be reinstated.  The school board meeting had to be closed abruptly as a result of the turmoil, which resulted in one person being arrested and charged with disorderly conduct and resisting arrest, and another cited for trespassing.  Brenda Sheridan, the Loudoun County school board chair, denies that critical race theory is part of the curriculum and says that teachers have merely undergone diversity training.   At all events, it appears that the trends being displayed by the Loudoun school board are a fair indication of what is going in public schools in the nation at large, and the trends are anything but wholesome ones.  It requires no gift of prophecy to foretell a great increase in homeschooling at this rate, as more and more parents revolt at the idea of racial division and sexual identity confusion being instilled in their children at an early age.

“Breakthrough” infections in fully vaccinated people accounted for fewer than 1,200 of more than 853,000 COVID-19 hospitalizations in the month of May, or about 0.1%; while about 150 of the more than 18,000 COVID-19 deaths in May were in fully vaccinated people, about 0.8%, or five deaths per day on average.  Currently the nation is averaging about 300 deaths per day, but it appears that this figure could be greatly reduced if the unvaccinated would receive vaccines.  But people are still resistant to the vaccine in various areas:  Arkansas, for instance, has only 33% of its population fully vaccinated, which is the lowest in the country.  Ali Mokdad, a professor of health metrics sciences at the University of Washington in Seattle, said modeling suggests the nation will hit 1,000 deaths per day again next year as the winter season approaches if a large segment of the population will not accept the vaccine.  At this point 56.2% of adults nationwide are fully vaccinated and 65.7% have received at least one dose; for seniors the figures are 77.4% and 87.5% respectively.  Virginia is doing slightly better than the national average, with 60.8% of adults fully vaccinated and 70.3% having received at least one dose.  Maryland is doing very well, with 73.4% of adults fully vaccinated and 76% having received at least one dose. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 180,746,276; # of deaths worldwide: 3,915,450; # of cases U.S.: 34,463,723; # of deaths; U.S.: 618,617.

June 23, 2021

The pandemic and personal diet – Decline in national birth rate – A slap on the wrist – John McAfee – Evening statistics

A friend has recently told me of an odd advantage that she received as a result of the pandemic.  Before the pandemic she chiefly obtained her meals from restaurants, frequently dining out on one night and then using leftovers for subsequent dinners.  When, at the onset of the pandemic, many restaurants closed, she fell back to cooking her meals on her own; and because she had greater control over the ingredients that went into the dishes she consumed and because she was no longer being served the extravagantly large portions for which American restaurants are famous, she was eating less and her diet was healthier.  She lost some weight and was all the fitter and trimmer in consequence.  I myself have missed the opportunity for dining out during the pandemic at its height; but it was only an occasional indulgence for me even before the pandemic began.  For those who up to this point relied on outside services to provide their meals, no doubt many have benefitted in the same way that my friend has done.

The pandemic has affected the country in more wide-ranging ways.  The CDC reports that as of December, 2020 – nine months after the pandemic was declared – our population showed an 8% decline in births in comparison with those of the previous year.  Births have been declining at the rate of about 2% per year for several years running, but anxiety about COVID-19 and economic impact may have played a role in people deciding to put off having children. 

The first sentence connected with the assault on the Capital was handed down today; and if there was any doubt that the rioters are being treated like members of a privileged class, this verdict must put them to rest.  Anna Morgan-Lloyd pleaded guilty to demonstrating in the Capitol building.  After this plea, the prosecutors dropped three other misdemeanor charges.  No felonies were included in the charges leveled against her.  She was ordered by the court to pay a $500 fine and to complete 40 hours of community service in addition to three years of probation.  She will not spend a single day in prison, nor be forced to pay any more than the cost of a new home workstation or of an airplane flight from Dulles to California.

John McAfee, the founder of McAfee Antivirus, was found dead in his cell in a Spanish prison, probably by suicide (there is a report that he hanged himself, but it is not yet confirmed).  The story of his life reads like a morality play.  He developed the most widely-used antivirus software in the late 1980s and became CEO of the company that promoted it.  In 1994, however, he tired of the business, resigned his position, and sold his shares in the company, realizing a fortune of $100 million.  And there, one would think, matters might have rested, he being able to lead an exceedingly comfortable, indeed lavish, lifestyle to the end of his days, merely by living on the interest of his wealth and not spending a penny of his capital.  Instead he went on a massive spending spree to acquire land parcels, mansions, artwork, automobiles, and so on, which quickly reduced his wealth; the housing bubble of 2008 made much of his land and house purchases all but worthless and by 2010 his assets had dwindled from $100 million to $4 million.  Even so, he had merely to accept his losses and reduce his expenditures in order to live well.  He did in fact move to Belize in an attempt to cut down on expenses; but other than that, he went on exactly as he had done before, residing in a house nearly as large as a castle and surrounding himself with an entourage of hangers-on and sycophants.  He also had numerous brushes with the law, including being questioned as a “person of interest” during an investigation of the murder of his next-door neighbor and being briefly imprisoned in the Dominican Republic for of carrying high-caliber weapons and ammunition on his yacht.  As the decade he wore on he became involved in a scam to raise more money:  this past March the Security Exchange Commission charged him with securities fraud, saying that he acquired $23 million in digital assets promoting Initial Coin Offerings (ICO) without disclosing that he was an investor in those ICOs.  From 2014 to 2018 he made an attempt at economy that did more credit to his thrift than to his prudence:  he did not file a single tax return, which prompted the IRS to launch an investigation against him.  He thereupon fled to Spain, where the authorities, after being contacted by the IRS, arrested him for tax evasion.  The U.S. was seeking for his extradition at the time of his death, and the Spanish government announced its intention to comply with the request just hours before his death was discovered.  

It takes a strong head to withstand the effects of a great amount of wealth acquired in a short time, and poor McAfee did not possess it.  Like the Spanish Empire during the latter part of the 17th century, his life fell into a state of collapse as a result of too great an influx of gold.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 180,337,903; # of deaths worldwide: 3,906,593; # of cases U.S.: 34,447,852; # of deaths; U.S.: 618,272.

June 22, 2021

Hiking in Old Rag – Dealing with the unvaccinated in the Philippines and in Pakistan – Crisis in Malaysia – RIP Hong Kong democracy – Democrats in difficulties – Evening statistics

I returned to Old Rag, the celebrated rock scramble of our area, with the Vigorous Hikers today, despite the rain threatened by the weather forecast.  We started a little past 8:30 and I hastened over the rocky portion that begins after ascending the first 1500 feet, wishing to reach the summit before the rain began.  It began, in fact, just as I was in the last stages of the ascent, and those who came only a few minutes after I did told me that the rocks had become very slick in that short interval.  Seven of us went up to the summit and then waited at the Byrd’s Nest shelter for the others; but eventually we decided to move on.  After going to the Old Rag Shelter towards the base of the Saddle Trail, we had lunch and proceeded to the intersection with the Weakley Hollow fire road.  Here we came to a decision point:  should we proceed along the original route that went up to the Corbin Mountain Trail and then descended to the Nicholson Hollow Trail for a longer circuit, or should we cut the hike short by turning along the Weakley Hollow fire road?  With the rashness and inexperience of youth, I was about to voice a preference for the second alternative, as it was still raining; but counsel from soberer and cooler heads prevailed and we accordingly trudged upward along the backside of Robertson Mountain to pursue the original route.  It proved to be the correct choice:  the rain tapered off eventually, the air remained fresh and cool, the vegetation along the Corbin Mountain Trail was in full leaf, as was appropriate for the beginning of summer.  The route involved three stream crossings, but the rain that occurred earlier was only about 0.2 inches in all, so that the boulders used to bridge all three of the crossing were well above the stream level.  The length of the hike was just over 14½ miles, which is slightly under the distances covered by hikes in this group, but it contained about 3870 feet of elevation gain to make up for whatever it may have lacked in mileage. 

Some political leaders have shown little inclination to promote anti-COVID vaccination, but President Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines cannot be included in their number.  On the contrary, he has threatened to arrest Filipinos who refuse to be vaccinated and then to administer a vaccine to them by force, even though Justice Secretary Menardo Guevarra later acknowledged that there is no Philippine law criminalizing refusal to get vaccinated against the coronavirus.  The Philippines has not been unusually hard-hit by the virus in comparison with many other nations.  Only about 1.2% of its population have contracted the disease and its death toll is 215 per million, meaning that about 1.7% of virus cases have been fatal – quite a good record for a country with a population distributed over 7,500 islands and that is the 12th-largest of all nations in the world, a record well below the global average.  Not all of those refusing to take the vaccines are anti-vaxxers; some are waiting for Western vaccines to become available.  Part of the reason for the relatively muted impact of the virus is the strictness with which preventative measures have been enforced.  The Philippines still has a strict mask mandate and, in addition, those who visit or work in hospitals must wear plastic face shields over their masks.  It has imposed a ban on arrivals from India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Oman and the United Arab Emirates until June 30th.   Unfortunately, the vaccines are not readily available.  At this point less than 2% of the population are fully vaccinated and barely 6% have received their first dose.

Duterte is not the only one who is threatening drastic action against the unvaccinated:  the Sindh province in Pakistan said that civil servants who refuse to be vaccinated will not be paid from July onwards and in the Punjab province citizens who refuse vaccinations will have their mobile phones blocked.

Malaysia, once one of the countries with the best records with regard to coronavirus cases and virus-related deaths, has undergone a five-fold increase of cases since the beginning of the year.  The government in response has shut all schools, prohibited dining in restaurants, and banned social activities and inter-state travel, but has resisted calls for a full lockdown because of fears it would cause an economic catastrophe. Its government has set a goal of vaccinating 80% of its population by next year and has ramped up its inoculation program, with nearly 2.5 million of its 33 million people having received at least one dose of vaccine.

The autonomism that once characterized Hong Kong is now obliterated.  Its liberal Apple Daily newspaper, the only independent news outlet in the territory, streamed its last news program yesterday.  Apple Daily has been unable to pay its staff, as the Chinese government has frozen its financial assets. Last week, about 500 police officers raided the headquarters, arresting the editor-in-chief and four top executives.  Jimmy Lai, the founder of the newspaper, is in prison, perhaps for the remainder of his life (he is 72).  He has made numerous calls for full democracy in Hong Kong, and in consequence has been charged with violating national security and foreign collusion, which is the Chinese government’s standard response towards anyone whose point of view differs from its own.

I have spoken of the difficulties Republicans have been undergoing in reaching out to voters, but the Democrats are facing challenges of their own.  Crime has risen dramatically over the past year, and the Democrats are widely perceived as being indifferent to this issue.  The increase in homicides is 25% nationwide, with many urban centers showing much larger spikes:  30% in Miami and 50% in Atlanta.  Progressive activists among the Democrats continue to call for police reform – and it certainly is needed – but their “defund the police” slogan seems calculated to alienate voters who live in the areas most vulnerable to street violence.  Eric Adams, a former New York Police Department captain, is the front-runner for Democratic nomination for New York mayoral candidate.  He stigmatized this slogan as “left-wing dilettantism” and added that affluent young leftists ignore how working-class communities suffer the most when crime rates spike.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 179,905,280; # of deaths worldwide: 3,897,117; # of cases U.S.: 34,433,485; # of deaths; U.S.: 617, 845.

June 21, 2021

Trump’s Father’s Day greeting – The Republican Party’s decline in urban and suburban settings – The “lab leak” theory – Evening statistics

Ex-President Trump has shown, if any further proof is needed, that he is incapable of making what was meant to be a conciliatory gesture without vituperation.  The following is his greeting for Father’s Day:  “Happy Father’s Day to all, including the Radical Left, RINOs, and other Losers of the world. Hopefully, eventually, everyone will come together!”  One can imagine the eagerness of the “losers” to rally behind him after this warm demonstration of friendship.  But perhaps I am being unduly pessimistic; perhaps, after all, the great white dove of Peace will spread its wings wide over the parties of Trump’s adherents and his opponents, to the unspeakable defilement of its plumage.

Trump’s influence on the Republican Party is being felt; the GOP is struggling to elections not only in large cities but in their suburban communities.  Jerry Sanders, who was a Republican mayor of San Diego for two terms in earlier decades, and a moderate who worked with the Obama administration on urban policy, says that the current party is out of touch with metropolitan areas.  He himself left the party on January 7th, following the mob attack on the Capitol.  The trends in Virginia seem to bear out his claims; it has become increasingly “blue” over the years, while states such as Georgia and Arizona, once firmly in the “red” category, have moved into purple battlegrounds as their largest cities and suburbs have expanded and have become more ethnically mixed.  One Democrat has no difficulty in explaining the cause of the Republican decline.  “It’s not the same Republican Party,” said Rep. Donald McEachin of Virginia. “Trump chased off a lot of moderate Republicans, so it’s a much smaller party.”  At the turn of the 21st century, Republican mayors governed cities such as New York, Los Angeles and San Diego, and Republicans occupied many of the gubernatorial seats in mid-Atlantic and New England states.  They are unable to do so now.  Since that time, according to Joseph Lhota, the former Metropolitan Transportation Authority chair who was the Republican nominee for mayor of New York in 2013, the GOP has “completely disappeared” as a force in metro politics.  Jim Himes of Connecticut, whose district is anchored in the wealthy suburbs of New York City, said an older version of the Republican Party, rooted in principles of limited government and support for environmentalism, could still have appeal there.  “They go back to that stuff, I’m in trouble,” he said.  The cheerful laugh with which he delivered that comment illustrated more clearly than words could have done how unlikely a prospect he considered it to be.

The “lab leak” hypothesis of the coronavirus emerging from the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) rather than from a nearby live animal food market continues to gain momentum.  It is known that the WIV was actively doing research on coronaviruses in bats in late 2019 and early 2020, including the bats that carry a strain of SARS-CoV-2 that is the closest known relative to the Covid-19 virus itself.  The secrecy of the Chinese government, who at this point has not yet allowed independent, outside scientists full access to WIV to investigate, hasn’t helped matters.  That does not necessarily mean, however, that the virus was deliberately engineered by the Chinese government; indeed, it seems unlikely, considering that the first country affected was China itself, and there was no indication at the time that it could spread so quickly beyond its borders.  I refer to earlier entries in this journal alone, which record how long a time it took various authorities to look upon the virus as a major threat.  Accidents are rare, but they do happen periodically.  In addition, viruses, as the COVID-19 pandemic has reminded us, can mutate of their own accord very quickly.  The WIV has long embarked on the highly dangerous “gain of function” method of research, which deliberately makes viruses or bacteria more harmful than they are in their natural form (there are numerous laboratories in the U.S. that use this line of research as well, without any restrictions from the CDC).  Experiments could easily have produced a strain that infected humans.  A lab employee who was accidentally infected with such a strain without being aware of it and then mingling with the populace at large would have been sufficient to start the pandemic.  In short, before we rush to discover deep-laid plots on the part of foreign governments, we must not disregard the sage advice of that celebrated philosopher, Lucy Van Pelt of Charles Schultz’s Peanuts:

“Have you ruled out stupidity?”

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 179,532,349; # of deaths worldwide: 3,888,306; # of cases U.S.: 34,418,935; # of deaths; U.S.: 617,443.

June 20, 2021

A hike for the solstice – Blood pressure medications – Gender-affirming operations – Dr. John Money and his victim – Evening statistics

It is the summer solstice today, and a group of us celebrated it accordingly by hiking through the Massanuttens in heat that touched 90 degrees and beyond.  We will have to get accustomed to the heat, which will last for the next three months.  The hike route went from Elizabeth Furnace up to the ridge via the Shawl Gap Trail, then used the Massanutten Trail to traverse the ridge for over two miles, and descended back via the Sherman Gap Trail and the Botts Trail.  For those who desired it there was an additional there-and-back along the Massanutten Trail to an impressive overlook that views the Shenandoah Valley in an area where the Shenandoah meanders in numerous oxbows.  The main loop is about 9 miles, with 1800 feet of elevation; the excursion to the overlook adds slightly over a mile each way, and about 400 feet of additional elevation gain.  The Shawl Gap Trail is very well-graded and would have been quite a moderate hike under cooler conditions, but the heat made it seem more difficult than it actually was.  Similarly, the Massanutten Trail has numerous ups and downs, none of them exceptionally steep; but the trail is rocky and at this time of the year is overgrown.  The luxuriant forest growth is at its height:  leaves thrust themselves in careless disarray in every direction, tendrils from vines hang from the stems to trail the ground.  We had an adventure, also appropriate to the season, when we encountered a rattlesnake on the trail, basking in the heat (it is the sort of weather that they love) and, to all appearances, resting on the ground underneath the bushes after having feasted on prey.  It was evident, at any rate, that it had no intention of moving, and so we were forced to bushwhack off of the trail slightly for a few yards in order to bypass it.  And after the hike, as usual, we ate and drank together as we sat alongside the extensive parking area of Elizabeth Furnace.  The area had several visitors, although few of them appeared to be attempting a hike on such a scale; many were taking a dip in Passage Creek, which flows in parallel to the Botts Trail. 

There was an issue with one member of the group, who had been prescribed medication for high blood pressure.  The physicians who prescribe such medications appear to assume that their patients will remain completely sedentary.  When one undertakes strenuous exercise, such as the one I have just described, medications taken to lower blood pressure will not always have very beneficial results.  The hiker became faint and weary early in the hike and had to turn back.  Physicians, it seems to me, should take such factors into account and be more specific about when such medications should and should not be taken.  I have often encountered hikers in similar difficulties on account of blood pressure medication taken in conjunction with strenuous exertions.

The Veterans’ Administration is moving to make gender-affirming surgeries covered by the department’s healthcare.  Gender-affirming surgeries include operations such as vaginoplasty, phalloplasty, scrotoplasty, masculinizing chest surgery, facial feminine procedures, reduction thyrochondroplasty, voice modification, facial hair removal, genital tucking and packing, and chest binding.

I suppose my opinion of such procedures is readily discernible.  They remind me of nothing as much as the character of Mr. Brocklehurst, the sanctimonious cleric in Jane Eyre who governs Lowood Orphanage with an iron rod, as he reacts to the discovery that one of the girls in his charge has curly red hair:

“Suddenly his eye gave a blink, as if it had met something that either dazzled or shocked its pupil; turning, he said in more rapid accents than he had hitherto used –

“’Miss Temple, Miss Temple, what – what is that girl with curled hair? Red hair, ma’am, curled – curled all over?’ And extending his cane he pointed to the awful object, his hand shaking as he did so.

“’It is Julia Severn,’ replied Miss Temple, very quietly.

“’Julia Severn, ma’am! And why has she, or any other, curled hair? Why, in defiance of every precept and principle of this house, does she conform to the world so openly – here in an evangelical, charitable establishment – has to wear her hair one mass of curls?’

“’Julia’s hair curls naturally,’ returned Miss Temple, still more quietly.

“’Naturally! Yes, but we are not to conform to nature.’”

And in pursuance with this pious resolution that the girls in the orphanage be “children of grace” despite their naturally luxuriant tresses, he orders the hair of every single member of the first-form class to be cropped short.

My objection to surgeries such as these and the entire concept of transgendering generally has nothing to do with anti-same-sex bias:  what people do in their bedrooms is none of my business and I certainly have never set myself up as someone with the authority to disapprove of it.  As long as there is mutual consent, men and women may sleep with anyone they like.  But mutilations such as these serve no useful purpose and can be actively harmful.  People who undergo them do not physically change their genders, despite claims to the contrary; but they can injure themselves irretrievably.  Effects to such surgeries can include delayed wound healing, fluid accumulation beneath the skin (seroma), solid swelling of clotted blood within your tissues (hematoma), changes in skin sensation such as persistent pain, tingling, reduced sensation or numbness, damaged or dead body tissue (tissue necrosis), such as in the nipple and in the surgically created penis (neophallus), blood clots in a deep vein (deep vein thrombosis) or in a lung (pulmonary embolism), abnormal connection between two body parts (fistula), such as in the urinary tract, urinary problems such as incontinence, pelvic floor dysfunction, permanent scarring – and this is only a partial list.

And in this connection may be mentioned the case of Dr. John Money (most appropriately named, for he reaped a fortune from his fraudulent claims about sexual malleability), who urged the parents of David Reimer to be raised as a girl after the latter’s penis was severely injured beyond repair during a botched circumcision in infancy.  The parents duly acquiesced in the recommendation that Reimer at the age of 22 months be given bilateral orchidectomy, in which his testes were surgically removed and a rudimentary vulva was fashioned.  Nonetheless, despite their attempts to raise him as a girl, he never identified as one.  “Brenda,” as the child was now called, angrily tore off her dresses at the age of 2. “She” refused to play with dolls and would beat up her brother and seize his toy cars and guns.  In school, she was relentlessly teased for her masculine gait, tastes, and behaviors.  When, at the age of 14, Brenda made the discovery of having been a boy at birth, he elected to undergo treatment (very painful treatment) to reverse the sexual reassignment, including testosterone injections, a double mastectomy, and phalloplasty operations.  Unsurprisingly, the turmoil he underwent during his childhood and adolescence led to periodic depression and he attempted suicide twice in early 20s.  The effort to conceal the secret about his true gender for years left its mark on other family members as well:  his mother  also attempted suicide; her father lapsed into mute alcoholism; his neglected twin brother Brian eventually descended into drug use, petty crime, and clinical depression.  Brian eventually was to die through an overdose of anti-depressants.  David managed to marry a woman with three children, whom he adopted; but his explosive anger, his cyclical depressions, his fears of abandonment all imposed heavy strains on his marriage.  She bore with him patiently for 14 years, but his spiraling depression at last drove her to suggest to him that they separate for a time.  He stormed out of the house in response and committed suicide two days later.  Such were the consequences of the determination of a latter-day Brocklehurst “not to conform to nature.”

Hmm . . . I seem to have ranged rather far afield from the coronavirus, haven’t I?  In truth it appears to be winding down at last, at any rate in this country.  Today our death toll was less than 100, the first time that this has happened in many months.  We accounted for only 1.5% of the daily new cases and for just under 1.5% of the daily new deaths.  But the pandemic appears to be declining on a global level, despite hots spots here and there.  Even in India the number of new cases today was barely over 53,000 – not a trivial number, admittedly, but a far cry from the 300,000-400,000 range per day earlier in the spring.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 179,239,054; # of deaths worldwide: 3,881,437; # of cases U.S.: 34,405,933; # of deaths; U.S.: 617,166.

June 19, 2021

Good news from Guinea – Two long-haul COVID cases – A drastic remedy – Unusual claims about the vaccines – The situation in Afghanistan – Evevning statistics

The COVID pandemic is not over, but the Ebola outbreak in West Africa is.  Unlike the previous Ebola epidemic, which lasted well over a year and killed more than 11,000 people, this outbreak was confined to 16 confirmed cases and 7 probable cases in Guinea, with a total of 12 deaths.  Ebola, as the figures indicate, is a far deadlier disease than COVID, but it is also much less transmissible.  In addition, the government of Guinea profited by the lessons learned from the previous pandemic:   rapid, coordinated response efforts, community engagement, effective public health measures and the equitable use of vaccines enabled it to contain the disease within the country’s borders and to reduce its effects to a minimum in the space of four months. 

It is easy to sound optimistic after the strides we have made since January, but the effects of the virus have not ended yet, as the following two sad stories indicate:

Jason Kelk has died of complications from COVID.  His name is not familiar here, but he is well-known to Britons, being one of the first COVID patients in the U.K. and one of those who suffered the most from the disease.  He was hospitalized in March, 2020.  He was already afflicted with Type 2 diabetes and asthma, and when the virus damaged his kidneys and lungs, he was bedridden from that time.  In addition, he developed stomach complications that necessitated his being fed intravenously.  Earlier this year he appeared to be recovering, starting to walk and coming off a ventilator and a 24-hour kidney filter, and he had progressed to the point of ingesting tea and soup.  Then his condition worsened in May. He had to be put back on a ventilator, after which he developed two new infections.  In the end he gave up, deciding to withdraw from treatment and to transfer himself to a hospice.  The relatives he left behind include eight grandchildren, two of whom he never was able to meet because they were born in the past year and could not be taken on visits to the hospital where he was treated.

Another victim, Heidi Ferrer, is more well-known in this country, being a writer for “Dawson’s Creek.”  Technically speaking, the cause of her death was not COVID but suicide; but it was induced by her experiences as a “long-haul” COVID patient.  She first contracted the disease in April, 2020, and by June she was bedridden and virtually immobile on account of several veins bursting in her foot.  She apparently recovered in August, 2020, but eventually her symptoms recurred and began to worsen to the point that she was unable to walk.  By May, 2021 she was bedridden again and in continual pain.  After 13 months of struggling she, like Jason Kelk, decided that she had had enough.  It was not an impulsive decision made during a momentary depression; she had been contemplating suicide for some time as her condition failed to improve, and she deliberately set her financial arrangements in order and completed a memoir that detailed her experiences with COVID before taking her own life.

Joshua Garza, another patient, has not died from COVID, but after declining to receive the vaccine in January he contracted the disease, which ended up by attacking his lungs and necessitating a double lung transplant.  He successfully underwent the surgery on April 13th and was able to regain his strength to the point of being released from the hospital on May 27th.  “It was quick, it was within three weeks, the lungs were already shot,” said Garza afterwards.  “They’re telling you your lungs are failing, so you don’t know if you’re going to go to bed tonight and wake up tomorrow.”  Lung transplants are a rare intervention for COVID patients but Garza’s experience is not unique:  Houston Methodist, the hospital at which he was treated, has already performed eight double lung transplants on COVID-19 patients, and has several more patients who are on life support while they await transplants.

Although, as my inclusion of this last story might indicate, I am a great believer in the efficacy of the COVID vaccines, I do not support all of the claims that some of their adherents advance.  Ramdas Shet, from the Indian state of Karnataka, released a video (which has since gone viral) claiming that the vaccine has endowed him with magnetism and that metal objects have been sticking to him of their own accord ever since he received his first dose.  He and people making similar claims have received offers of up to £1000 if they can validate their condition.  At least the reaction in India is one of approval.  Sherri Tenpenny, a physician in the Cleveland area and an anti-vaxxer, has urged in support of her views a claim that spoons have stuck to people who have received the vaccine; and Joanna Overholt, who previously worked in an intensive care unit and is currently a nurse practitioner student, spoke during Tuesday’s Ohio House Health Committee hearing in an effort to support the good doctor’s assertion by sticking a key and bobby pin to her skin.  “Explain to me why the key sticks to me. It sticks to my neck, too,” Overholt said. “If somebody could explain this, that would be great.”  Since both of these fell off shortly afterwards, I proffer the explanation of pressure from her fingers while her hand was still within a few millimeters from her body as she first applied these objects to her skin.

Amid the reports about how the virus has unfolded in India and Nepal, there is another country in the region that has been overlooked:  Afghanistan.  The number of COVID patients there has risen exponentially within the past few weeks, the hospitals have the familiar shortages of beds and of oxygen canisters, and only one million doses of the vaccine have been administered in this country of 36 million people.  The WHO estimates that about 10 million people have contracted the disease since February.  Officially the reported figures are about 37,000 cases to date and 1,300 COVID-related deaths; but since only 90,000 Afghanis have undergone testing since the pandemic began, these figures are almost certainly gross under-estimates.  Needless to say,  the ongoing internal conflict between the government and Taliban militants also makes the pandemic impossible to control. More than half the districts in Afghanistan are controlled by the militant group, and hardly any tests are available in these regions. The majority of the populace have also largely ignored physical distancing recommendations by health officials.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 178,936,789; # of deaths worldwide: 3,874,803; # of cases U.S.: 34,401,206; # of deaths; U.S.: 617,079.

June 18, 2021

Mike Pence besieged again – American vaccinations – International travel – Evening statistics

Mike Pence was roundly booed today at a so-called “Christian” conference (specifically, the Faith & Freedom Coalition’s “Road to Majority” conference in Kissimmee, FL) because he did not undermine the process that ratified Biden’s victory on January 6th (and indeed he never had the legal power to do so, even in the unlikely event that he wished for it).  He was saluted with such epithets as “traitor” and “Judas” and “King of the Jews” – no, wait, that last one was shouted at a different event.  It’s not that I regard Pence as another Christ figure, surely I cannot be the only one who believes that the members of this crowd are spiritual descendants of those who cried out “Give us Barabbas!” on a certain occasion in the 1st century AD.

Americans have received about three hundred million vaccination shots within the past five months that Biden has been in office.  The pace of vaccinations is still slowing, notably in the Southern states, and the fraction of adults who have received at least one dose will probably be about 67% on July 4th at this rate, rather than the 70% Biden had targeted.  Still, over 55% of all adults have been fully vaccinated.  The figures for seniors are especially encouraging:  77% are fully vaccinated and over 87% have received more than one dose.  The most vulnerable segment of the population might therefore be said to be well-protected.  Both Biden and Harris are vigorously campaigning for more people to receive their doses.  Those who receive only one dose are much more likely than those who are fully vaccinated to contract the so-called Delta variant, which the CDC describes as a “variant of concern” and which accounts for 99% of new cases in the U.K.

The U.S., as well as Albania, Hong Kong, Lebanon, Macau, the Republic of Northern Macedonia, Serbia, and Taiwan, has been added to a so-called “white list” of countries whose residents may travel to nations in the European Union, provided that they are vaccinated.  This does not mean, of course, that international travel will return to normal in the near future.  There are several dozen countries that the CDC rates as “Level 4,” in which COVID is so virulent that travel to them should be avoided by the vaccinated and unvaccinated alike.  Countries such as Belgium, Lithuania, the Netherlands, and Sweden are included in this category; so, interestingly, is North Korea, even though it officially has no recorded COVID cases.  Clearly the CDC does not place much credence on such claims.  France, where a group of us had originally planned to visit in September is now in the “Level 3” category, acceptable for traveling among vaccinated visitors but not recommended for unvaccinated ones.  The trip was canceled on account of the uncertainty as to whether or not travelers would have to spend time in quarantine after deplaning.  It now appears that we could have undertaken the trip after all, but I am just as well satisfied to defer international travel until the situation settles down there a bit and the number of people vaccinated in European and Asian countries increases. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 178,584,785; # of deaths worldwide: 3,866,607; # of cases U.S.: 34,392,666; # of deaths; U.S.: 616,904.

June 17, 2021

Unemployment claims – Two hiker tales – Fighting in Myanmar intensifies – The July 4th goal – Evening statistics

Claims for unemployment have increased slightly, although the numbers remain close to the pandemic low.  Over 559,000 workers found employment this past month.  Employers posted a record 9.3 million job openings in April, close to the number of unemployed Americans in the workforce.  But we still have a way to go to be restored to the pre-pandemic levels of employment.  There are approximately 7 million jobs that will have to be recovered.  The economy is steadily strengthening, but it remains to be seen what will transpire at the end of the month, when about half the country’s states will terminate the enhanced benefits created on account of the pandemic. 

The dismembered body of an unidentified woman has been found in Catoctin Mountain Park.  Her remains were found close to one of the established trails, within a mile of the Camp David presidential retreat.  The proximity to Camp David appears to be fortuitous.  The authorities say that her body had been in the park for about a month.  The cause of death is still undetermined.  It is a shocking story in more ways than one; I and many of my friends have visited the park on numerous occasions, and one doesn’t generally associate a peaceful forest setting with crime, particularly one so gruesome.  But it certainly is feasible to conceal a body there for weeks or even months during this season; the dense foliage makes it possible. 

Another hiker story has ended more happily.  Fina Kiefer was hiking on the Pioneer Ridge Trail some 40-odd miles northeast of Anchorage when she was chased off of the trail by bears.  She was able to ward them off by using bear spray but afterwards she was unable to locate the trail again.  A search was launched but nothing could be found after 35 hours and it had to be called off as weather conditions deteriorated.  The trail is 13.6 miles there-and-back, with at least 5,200 feet of elevation gain.  Nonetheless, somehow she managed to descend the Chugach Mountains and make her way back to the road that leads to the trailhead, where she was spotted by a pair of drivers.  She had equipped herself with waterproof matches as well as bear spray, and thus was able to start a fire to keep her sufficiently warm at night. 

A village in Myanmar has been burned to the ground by the militia forces as the fighting between the junta and the opposition escalates.  Kin Ma, a village of about 800 people in the Magway Region, now has only about 30 houses still standing, while the other 200 have been reduced to piles of ash and bricks.  It is one of many casualties in the struggle there.  Exact figures are impossible to obtain, but at this point it appears that about 860 civilians have been killed in the conflict.

At this point 65% of all American adults have received at least one dose.  This means that if Biden’s goal of 70% of American adults getting at least one dose by July 4th is to be reached, nearly 13 million will have to receive a vaccine within the next two weeks.  In the past week the average has been about 1 million administrations of the vaccines per day.  So the goal still seems achievable, provided the pace of vaccinations does not decline further.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 178,178,128; # of deaths worldwide: 3,857,302; # of cases U.S.: 34,375,573; # of deaths; U.S.: 616,422.

June 14-16, 2021

On the Appalachian Trail – The pace of vaccination – Jubilant mood in California – Easing of restrictions in other states – The virus in India, Brazil, and Nepal – Effects of COVID in North Korea – An odd side effect of the virus – Evening statistics

There has been a delay in resuming the journal entries.  I had little access to the Internet during the stay in Kings Canyon/Sequoia, and there is always much to do after returning from a trip.  In addition, I went with the Vigorous Hikers yesterday along the Appalachian Trail from Panorama to Elkwallow and back, which is nearly 18 miles with about 3000 feet of elevation gain, so I was rather tired after driving back home again.  The hike itself was very pleasant.  The section of the AT has no especially outstanding features, but it goes through dense forest with many wildflowers at all seasons (at this time of year the columbines were especially numerous and various clusters of mountain laurel were still in bloom) and the temperature was pleasantly cool.  I understand that the weather in the area had been extremely hot the week before, while I was traveling, but for the past few days it has been all that could be desired, not overly humid, and warm rather than hot. 

The pace of vaccination is slowing down, but at this point nearly 65% of all American adults have received at least one dose and nearly 55% have been fully vaccinated.  It is not a bad result, although of course one hopes that the figures will increase during the following weeks.  I entered several stores today and each one posted a notice stating that non-vaccinated customers were the only ones who needed to wear masks.  There is no attempt at enforcement, however.  It is all done on the honor system, and my guess is that many non-vaccinated shoppers will not bother to comply. 

The majority of states have eased restrictions or ended them altogether.  Most notably, California has just lifted its mask mandate and its social distancing guidelines.  More than 70% of the state’s adults have received at least one dose and its current infection rate has been under 1% for more than six weeks, one of the lowest in the country.  Businesses and counties can still require masks and impose other restrictions, but most businesses said they would rely on the honor system when it comes to determining whether patrons are vaccinated.  Museums, however, are still requiring its visitors to wear masks.  Disneyland will admit out-of-state visitors for the first time since March, 2020; while in San Francisco the cable cars, which were halted at the start of the pandemic, will start running again in August and rides will be free all month.

New York also has seen at least 70% of its adults receive at least one dose, and restrictions there have been lifted as well.  Not many states have restrictions in effect at this point and those that do plan to lift them soon.  Washington is scheduled to lift all restrictions by June 30th, and Maryland and Michigan by July 1st. New Mexico will set to end its restrictions by July 1st if it reaches a 60% vaccination rate by then. Currently 59.5% of adults in the state have gotten at least one dose of the vaccine.  Hawaii will drop all restrictions once it reaches a 70% vaccination rate; it currently is at 68.5%

In other countries the pandemic is still creating much distress.  It is waning in India, but the nation’s case count is now close to our own.  Moreover, the five-week lockdown has ended and crowds are thronging again all over the country, prompting fears of yet another wave of the virus.  Only 5% of the country’s population has been inoculated at this point.  Similarly, Brazil’s death toll is nearly as large as ours; in proportion to its population, its mortality rate is 25% higher than that of the U.S.  And that, of course, takes into account only the official statistics.  The actual figures, as most Brazilian medical authorities agree, are probably much higher.  Brazil’s rate of vaccination is higher than India’s, but even so, less than 12% of the population has been fully vaccinated.  Bolsonaro continues to display the same insouciance that has characterized him throughout the crisis; on Saturday he led a motorcycle rally in which he and his supporters wore no masks.  The city of Sao Paolo in response has fined him for violation of its mask mandate, which has been in place since May, 2020.  In Nepal, about 40% of COVID tests are coming back positive.  It can take up to two weeks to get test results and in the meantime an infected person can easily spread the virus to many community members. Again, the figures for vaccination are low; only about 3% of the country’s population has been inoculated.

Although North Korea officially has no reported COVID cases, Kim Jong Un warned about possible food shortages and urged the country to brace for extended COVID-19 restrictions.  The economy at this point is in a shambles.  Pandemic border closures have choked off trade with China, while devastating typhoons and floods during the previous summer has decimated crops.  It must be said that Kim Jong Un, unlike several other dictators, has taken the COVID threat seriously.  He has closed borders despite the economic hardships such a step entails, and he has enforced measures such as social distancing.  The country has a surprisingly large number of doctors, even if they are less skilled and experienced than their Western counterparts, and the level of personal hygiene is superior to that of many Third World countries.  The claim of the country’s having no instances of COVID is doubtful, but it seems likely that the virus has been contained more readily there for the same reason that it has been in Vietnam:  the government rules with an iron fist and few of its citizens would attempt to flout any regulations it decides to impose.

It’s not exactly a crippling loss, but one of the odd effects of the coronavirus is a glut of unsold Girl Scout cookies.  During the recent spring selling season, many troops decided not to set up the traditional cookie booths in order not to endanger the health of their members.  The Girl Scouts organization forecasted lower sales for this year; but, even so, they were over-optimistic in placing their orders to the bakers.  About 15 million extra boxes were left over as the season wore down.  About 12 million of these remain with the two professional baking firms, Little Brownie Bakers and ABC Bakers.  An additional 3 million remain with the various Girl Scout Councils, who are struggling to sell them.  They are pressed for time in this effort:  the cookies have a 12-month shelf life. 

Yesterday’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 177,362,048; # of deaths worldwide: 3,836,821; # of cases U.S.: 34,350,201; # of deaths; U.S.: 615,679. 

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 177,787,170; # of deaths worldwide: 3,848,157; # of cases U.S.: 34,366,073; # of deaths; U.S.: 616,144. 

June 5-13, 2021: Kings Canyon/Sequoia Trip

Kings Canyon/Sequoia trip (prologue) – Some effects of pandemic on traveling – Mask mandate in California

It may seem odd, in a journal devoted to the effects of a pandemic (albeit at this point in what are presumably its recovery phases) to launch into a description of a group hiking trip.  But it is actually more applicable than may appear at first glance, for two reasons:  first, it is not a bad representation of the sort of activities that people as a whole are doing during the lifting of COVID-related restrictions as travel becomes more frequent and, second, it illustrates how the pandemic is still affecting vacations of this sort, as will appear below.

In the first place, the pandemic had a direct impact on how we, as a group, were forced to make special efforts to coordinate our excursions.  The trip took place in the Kings Canyon/Sequoia National Parks and originally LM, the trip organizer, had arranged for some members of the group to stay in the park’s lodge and others to stay in the cabins nearby.  But shortly before the trip, he was notified that the cabins would not be available on account of the restrictions imposed by the virus.  Adjustments therefore had to be made. A few people brought their tents and used one of the park’s campsites, while five others (I among them) stayed in a house that EF and MJ were able to select via Airbnb.  We met each day in the Grant Grove Visitor Center.  The walk to the Center from the lodge was only a few minutes, the walk from the campsite was somewhat longer, and the drive from the house was about 25 minutes.  It was a minor inconvenience, to be sure, but it had the effect of splitting the group into three subgroups, as far as after-hike activities were concerned.  Those who stayed in the lodge had the option of showering immediately after the daily hike before celebrating at the picnic tables on the lodge grounds, but those in the other two subgroups did not; and as a result we did not always congregate together after the daily hike ended, as is our usual custom on such trips.

Furthermore, meals – and dinners in particular – presented some challenges.  At the best of times the Kings Canyon/Sequoia area does not offer extensive restaurant selections.  The nearest town is Dunlap, which constitutes a drive of about ½ hour, and it contains three places that serve food; there is a fourth eatery somewhat closer to the park (and extremely close to the house that five of us were occupying).   The drives to the various trailheads were frequently long and tiring, and the designated drivers of the vans we rented were understandably reluctant to drive further after the daily hike was completed.  At this point, however, the facility at the Visitor Center offers takeout only, and it is minimally staffed.  One placed an order electronically from a kiosk, after which orders were be picked up by the customers on an individual basis as each one was separately prepared.  It was not a very efficient process for a group of over twenty people.

None of these circumstances, of course, were serious drawbacks; they could easily be overcome with a little patience, and they did not substantially impinge upon our enjoyment of what the park had to offer.  Ostensibly Kings Canyon and Sequoia are two separate parks, but they are contiguous and they are administered together by the National Park Service.  They were both established in 1890, but the Kings Canyon Park was originally much smaller and was expanded to its current size only in 1940.  It contains some of the steepest vertical relief in North America.  Much of it is designated as wilderness and not accessible by roads.  Sequoia, of course, is noted for its numerous giant redwoods (although there are several in Kings Canyon as well).   The descriptions of the individual hikes that we did over the week will have to be deferred until I have the leisure to do them justice; suffice it to say that all of them were enticing and some of them quite memorable.  Detailed descriptions will follow in due course.

The other aspect of the trip worth noting is the effect of the pandemic on California generally, or at any rate the area that we visited.  It has been hit harder than the DC metro area.  Non-essential travel is discouraged and in some cases proof of vaccination may be required (although none of us on the Kings Canyon/Sequoia trip were asked to provide any).  The mask mandate is still in effect until the 15th, and people for the most part were wearing masks even out of doors.  We did not wear masks on our hikes, but we did use them in the courtyard of the Visitor Center, as well as for any store that we entered.  The final day of our trip was spent in Millbrae, which is part of the greater San Francisco area, and it is apparent that many businesses have closed, not to re-open in the distant future. 

Internet access was extremely limited during this trip, and as a result I was unable to track daily virus updates.  These are the results as of 10:30 PM today:

# of cases worldwide: 176,713,470; # of deaths worldwide: 3,819,300; # of cases U.S.: 34,321,158; # of deaths; U.S.: 615,053.  The U.S. is now ranked 14th in highest number of cases per 1,000,000 of population and 20th in mortality rate, a significant improvement in both measurements. 

The pace of vaccinations, regrettably, has slowed down.  At this point nearly 87% (5 out of 6) of all seniors have received at least one dose and 76.2% are fully vaccinated.  These are encouraging figures for the segment of the population most susceptible for the disease.  For adults generally, 64.4% have received at least one dose and 54.1% are fully vaccinated, which is less of an increase since June 4th than one would have hoped.  The Southern and Western states appear to be laggards in this respect.   

6/5/2021 – 6/13/2021 (continued)

Details of the Kings Canyon/Sequoia Trip

Day 1 (6/5):

Since the pandemic is waning, travel is very much on the increase.  At this stage the conditions at Dulles airport provided the same chaotic confusion that I had formerly known and dreaded.  Still, the check-in process was efficient, and it did not take more than 25 minutes between my entering the airport and passing through check-in and security to arrive at the gate.  Everyone was masked, but social distancing was not possible until the circumstances; the lines for the check-in kiosks and for going through security were as densely packed as they had been previously.  I brought copies of my vaccination card in case proof of vaccination was needed, but no one asked me to produce them.

The flight was comfortable and I was rather surprised at how easily I adjusted to travel by plane after such a long hiatus.  The five of us renting the house outside of the park drove together in the same van.  The drive from the airport to the house was well over four hours.  But it passed through interesting country, a part of the agricultural section of California that produces so much fruit and vegetables for the entire nation.  Many crops were bearing fruit:  grapes, apricots, almonds.  We stopped at a fruit stand, where we picked up some fresh produce, including some delicious nectarines and avocados.  We dined in Fresno, at an excellent place that is a fish market as well as a restaurant.  The swordfish I ordered was fresh, firm-fleshed but tender, and not in the least overcooked.  Although masks were required in the stores and the fruit stands, no one was wearing a mask in the restaurant, not even the servers.

From there we proceed to the house, which was somewhat small and not without various inconveniences.  Lighting, for instance, was rather scanty in every room except the kitchen.  But I had a bit of luck:  I had expected to be roughing it by sleeping on a couch in the living room, as per the original arrangement.  We discovered, however, that there was a fold-out bed in a little room (barely more than an alcove) adjoining the main bedroom.  It was a bit lumpy, but it was certainly preferable to the prospect of sleeping in the living room, in which I would be continually be at risk to be awakened by anyone who needed to go to the bathroom during the night or to the kitchen in the early morning. 

We were extremely fortunate in our weather, not only for the day but for the entire week.  It was in the 60s and 70s most of the time, perhaps somewhat cooler at higher elevations; but the temperatures for the following week were projected to reach the triple-digit range and well beyond.  People may talk as much as they please about humidity being the most difficult aspect of summer weather to cope with; whether the heat is dry or moist, hiking on days when the thermometer exceeds 100 degrees is not to be recommended.

Day 2 (6/6): 

For our first hiking day we went on the Redwood Canyon loop, which actually consists of two adjoining loops, the Sugar Bowl loop and the Hart loop.  The Sugar Bowl loop begins with a continual but well-graded climb for about 2½ miles through numerous groves of young sequoias.  I was continually stopping to take photos, not only of the majestic trees, but of the numerous wildflowers and of the views into the canyon below.  The hike then descends to Redwood Canyon, crosses the stream that meanders through, and continues with the Hart loop, a somewhat steeper ascent that continues for 2 miles and contains a passage through a hollowed-out trunk of a sequoia to pass through – which all but the tallest hikers can do without stooping.  Then there is another descent to the canyon and a final climb back to the parking area.  Officially the distance is 10 miles for the two loops combined, but everyone’s measuring device recorded distances between 11 and 12 miles.  My guess is that it is really about 11½ miles, with something over 2100 feet of elevation gain.

It was a hike that appealed to other senses besides mere sight alone.  Birds caroled continually as we passed through the glades and numerous scents wafted through the air, depending on the vegetation:  resinous pine, smoky wood from trees partly burned by past fires (sequoias have very thick bark and in consequence are not readily killed by forest fires), and one plant whose leaves suffused the air with a scent that vaguely resembled steamed artichokes.  The Hart loop contains the Hart Tree, one of the largest trees in the world.  The hike was not without its little adventures:  for instance, at one point during the descent in the Sugar Bowl loop there was a fallen sequoia trunk that stretched directly across the path.  One either had to go around it in an area strewn with scree and fallen branches or to walk along the trunk itself and then leap down on the farther side; I chose the second option. 

It took some time to drive to the hike and since we ended late, the five of us in the rented house returned directly from the park to the local tavern about ½ mile from our place.  The food was of good though not outstanding quality.  We chatted a bit with the restaurant owner, who has a curious history.  He grew up in the area and was a fire-fighter in the park service for several years before acquiring the restaurant, which was a family business.  He had much to tell us about the attractions of the park and about its natural history, and he strenuously urged us to sample the Mineral King area.  But when we returned to the house and did a little research, we rejected the suggestion, since it would have involved a drive of nearly three hours each way.

Day 3 (6/7):

This day consisted of various little hikes:

  1.  Moro Rock

This is a heavily trafficked hike about 1 mile round trip.  As a hike it is somewhat disappointing, consisting chiefly of a long stone staircase that goes up the rock for about 200 feet.  But the rock itself is impressive:  a large granite dome that looms above its surroundings, thrusting above the tree canopy and providing untrammeled views of the San Joaquin Valley and the peaks of the Great Western Divide in the distance.

  • Hanging Rock

A fairly gentle trail leads to a boulder balanced on the rim of the large canyon carved by the Middle Fork of the Kaweah River.  The rim featured a high point on a sloping boulder whose top surface is several dozen feet above Hanging Rock itself, which I ascended and from that viewpoint took photos of the others in the group assembling at Hanging Rock.

  • Eagle View

This 180-degree view is reached by going on the  High Sierra Trail for about 1½ miles, again ascending rather gradually to a lookout into the Kings Canyon Wilderness and (appropriately enough) the high sierra. 

  • General Sherman/Congress Trail

The hike passed by numerous sequoias of mammoth proportions.  General Sherman is the largest tree in the park; by volume, it is the largest living single-stem tree on the planet.  Estimates of its age range from 2,300 years to 3,700.  The tree is said to be named by James Wolverton, a naturalist who actually served as a lieutenant under Sherman during the Civil War (but this story may be apocryphal).  The Congress Trail, whose trailhead is is adjacent to tree, passes by numerous other exceptionally large sequoias that are named after various presidents and other political figures.

  • Topokah Falls

This was the best hike of the day, consisting of a moderate ascent towards the base of the falls, the tallest in Sequoia Park, going alongside a limpid stream that is of a dazzling turquoise color in some areas.  The falls consists of a series of steep cascades.  The trail actually comes to an end several feet above the base itself, and the trek down there is a bit of a scramble – but well worth the effort.  The last half-mile goes through a rocky moraine of a U-shaped canyon. 

The total mileage for the day was about 11 miles and perhaps about 2000 feet.  Afterwards we all congregated at the picnic tables close to the lodge for our “happy hour,” where we shared various items of food and drink such as nuts and cheeses and chocolate and chips and crackers and meats and various fruits of the earth (grape juice being resoundingly included in that category).  Then we had dinner at the Visitor Center’s takeout place, the drawbacks of which I have already mentioned.  But the food itself was acceptable, and in any case we didn’t need much after what we had previously consumed.

Day 4 (6/8):

Since we didn’t wish to do much driving, the hikes today started from Grant Grove Village, where the lodge and Visitor Center are located. We all started together along the Manzanita Trail, a moderate climb up to the junction with a trail to Panoramic Point.  Most of the group went immediately to the Point, but a sub-group detached itself to make an additional there-and-back excursion to the Park Ridge fire tower.  This option was delightful.  It led up upward for about a mile to the tower, which was manned and in operation, and was open to visitors.  The people at the tower were two brothers, who were volunteers, whose job was to watch for and triangulate outbreaks of fire during the summer months.  They had made themselves at home in the little office at the top of the tower, with a dog and an African gray parrot for company.  I thought at first they might object to our intruding upon them, but in fact they welcomed visitors warmly and engaged in conversation with us for about ½ hour.  They asked which hikes we had done and which we were planning to do.  When I mentioned that we were planning to go to Alta Peak they appeared impressed.  “You’re real hikers!” was their response.  Perhaps we bore out this observation by our choice of doubling back; the book recommends using the fire road to return to the junction but we used the same ridge trail by which we came, on the grounds that it was more interesting, as well as being more direct, than the gentler but more closed-in fire road.

From there we went on to Panoramic Point, providing extensive views of the Sierra Nevada and the Snow Range.  Numerous spire-like peaks jutted out in the distance across the canyon, while on the floor of the valley we observed Hume Lake, pellucid and blue, lined with tall pines and firs (reconstituted groves, for the area was heavily exploited for lumber until the mid-20th century).  From there we continued past the parking area along the North Boundary Trail, which was fairly rough and overgrown but which appeared almost like a road in comparison with what followed.

Just before the trail crossed the highway, there was a junction with the Crystal Springs Trail, along which we proceeded.  It appeared fairly rudimentary even at the beginning, but as we pushed on we found that the trail simply petered out and that we were forced to bushwhack.  We never were at any great distance from nearby roads and there was little danger of getting lost, but our progress was slow and we encountered several obstacles that were rather vexatious.  Eventually we came to the road, which we crossed to arrive at a stable, where we confirmed that we were on the correct path to the General Grant tree.  This tree is the second largest tree in the world (General Sherman being the first) and has been declared by President Eisenhower to be a National Shrine, a memorial to men and women who died in war – the only living object to be so designated. 

After that we took a trail that contained little ascents and descents, eventually going through the campground back to the Visitor Center.  The hike was comparable in effort to that of yesterday’s conglomerate, about 11 miles and 2000 feet of elevation gain.  The end of the day was similar to yesterday’s, with a “happy hour” that lasted well over two hours and another dinner ordered from the Visitor Center.  In fact, when those of us using the house returned to eat the food we had taken out, I found that I had eaten so much already that I did not need any more for the evening and I packed the sandwich I had acquired to use for lunch on the following day.

Day 5 (6/9):

The hikes up to this point were attractive, even inspiriting, with glimpses of unique vegetation, cascades, canyons, mountain summits, ravines, gorges, tarns – but they were not especially challenging.  The hike to Alta Peak provided a dramatic contrast.  Only five of us attempted it; the others went (starting at the same trailhead) to a series of mountain lakes – which in itself was quite strenuous, amounting to 14 miles round trip and about 3000 feet of elevation gain.  The hike to the peak is about a mile longer and ascends slightly under 4000 feet in all.  However, the last 2000 feet of elevation gain is completed during the final 2 miles, at the highest altitude.  Many use two days to complete this hike, climbing up to Alta Meadow on the first day, camping overnight, and going up to the peak on the second day.  Alta Peak itself is slightly over 11,000 high.  GC, who lives in Park City, is somewhat more acclimatized to such elevations, but the four of us who were low-landers felt the effects of the thinner air as we ascended. 

The hike begins by trailing through dense forest, chiefly of red fir, with its distinctive purplish bark and bristly needles.  The ascent is fairly gentle for a couple of miles, then it becomes steeper until it leads to Panther Gap, an open space revealing views south over Kaweah Canyon and the Castle Rocks formation.  At this point the trail emerges from forest and goes along a fairly level section along the side of the canyon, then back into forest again and ascending relatively gently to the junction with the trail to Alta Meadow.  At this point the grade becomes much steeper and eventually the path passes above treeline onto granite, strewn with scree, its stark bareness relieved by only a few hardy alpine flowers emerging between cracks on the rocky surface.   The wind blew fiercely as we ascended, with no vegetation to mitigate it.  The trail passes by a rock formation called Tharp’s Rock and climbs above its apex.  Although the rock pile of the peak appeared to be nearby, it still took many minutes to reach as we continued to ascend along the slope in the face of the steadily blowing wind. 

Once we reached the pile, there was a brief scramble to reach the top, with the geodesic stamp at the topmost point.  From there we had unparalleled views of the Great Western Divide and, just visible beyond it, of Mount Whitney.  The vista, in fact, comprises about half of the entire park.  Some have declared that the views are as good from Alta Peak as they are from Mount Whitney.  To the north we could see Kings Canyon and to the south was Kaweah Canyon, whose base (which we could see clearly) was 9000 feet below the point where we were standing.  The intricately carved surfaces of the canyon walls were eloquent testimony to the glacial activity that took place over time.  The ridgeline at some of the highest points of the summits had a razor-like sharpness.  The wind was so fierce that we could stay on the top only briefly; for lunch we went down a little via the north escarpment, where we could get a clear view of Pear Lake (which was one of the lakes included on the hike that the others did).

Going down was relatively uneventful, although I did meet two young men who planned to camp at Alta Meadow and to attempt the peak on the following day.  They asked me if I had gone beyond the pike itself, and I was forced to say that I did not.  I did not see how it was physically possible to do so, since it is a sheer drop in every direction except for the one that we used to approach the peak.  It was cool in the parking area as we waited for everyone to assemble and gray cloud was closing in on us by the time we left to drive back, but happily no rain ensued.

For dinner the five of us renting the house went to the tavern nearby; again, the food was of reasonable quality but the service that night was abominable, with at least 30 minutes elapsing between making our selections and being served the food that we ordered.

Day 6 (6/11):

On this day we went to the end of Kings Canyon and proceeded to Mist Falls, where the south fork of the Kings River drops 100 feet over a steep, rocky, granite incline.  The trail is (nominally) about 9 miles there-and-back, but most of us added a loop at the beginning that goes along the river through a band of forest.  The river itself is exceptionally clear, and of a bright green color that at times deepens to emerald.  The ascent is moderate for the most part, getting rather steep and rocky towards the end, although not at all as difficult as the ascent to Alta Peak (nor, I suspect, the ascent along the trail to the lakes that the others used the day before).  Some of us lunched at the base of the falls; others (I among them) preferred to go to the top and look downwards, where we had a clear view not only of the water cascading below but of the length of the river gorge beyond.

Afterwards we drove back to the lodge for happy hour.  Since those who had rooms in the lodge planned to shower first, the five of us renting the house deliberately delayed along the way, stopping for ice cream at one place on the road.  This concession stand was on a lot that contained a sign advertising lodging and meals, but we could discern no facilities of that nature; and upon inquiring, we learned that the lodge that had formerly been standing there was burnt down by a forest fire six years ago. 

The happy hour was relatively brief that day, and we went on to eat at a restaurant in Dunlap, which has the most extensive menu by far of any eating place in the area.  The meal was surprisingly good, and the service was excellent. 

Day 7 (6/11):

For this day, like the second one, we also used a series of short hikes:

  1. Big Baldy

This hike went mainly along a ridge, fairly gently for the most part, going up 600 feet in the course of 2¼ miles to the top of a granite dome.  It was a good viewing place after having done the preceding hikes, which gave us many points of reference.  In particular, we had extensive views into Redwood Canyon, where we had hiked the first day. 

The trail continued for about ¾ mile to another dome called Chimney Rock.  None of the others wished to go there, but I was curious enough to venture forward.  It was worth the effort: the views of the canyon thus obtained were from a different angle and it was diverting to see the others on Big Baldy appear like tiny colored dots in the distance.

  • Buena Vista

Buena Vista is another dome, nearly level at the top, with numerous large boulders to sit upon.  The views are similar to those of Big Baldy.  Big Baldy is about 500 higher, but the two are sufficiently far apart so that they do not obscure the views from their summits.  We had lunch in this area.

  • Little Baldy

Most of the others wished to take it easy today and returned to the lodge after the first two hikes.  However, JK, WG, EF, and I wanted to get as much out of the park as we could, so we went up to this dome as well.  It is rated as easy but it actually was the most difficult of the three.  Little Baldy ascends about 1000 feet in elevation but most of the climb is within the first ¾ mile and is fairly steep, despite the switchbacks.  At the top we gazed upon Mount Silliman and the Great Western Divide, and we also spotted Alta Peak, which appeared like a tiny cap on top one of the summits. To the west we looked over mountain ranges into the foothills.  Regrettably the air was getting hazy, so the photos we took at this point are less impressive than those we took at the other two domes.

For this hike we experienced what I called a “bonus.”  During the ascent we passed by two young women who were going at a somewhat slower pace than we were.  They were in good physical condition, trim-waisted and reasonably muscular, but clearly they were not used to this type of exercise.  After we had stayed on the summit for some minutes and turned to begin our descent, we encountered the two women as they were just coming up to the top.  One of them greeted us quite cheerily with “Hello, in-shape people!”  It was pleasant to hear such words from someone perhaps 40 years younger than myself.

When we all assembled back at the lodge, the happy hour was an exceptionally joyous one.  We were exalting in the fact that we could now travel and feast together in this manner, without fear of infection or debilitating illness, after a hiatus of more than a year and a half.  I called this occasion an “anti-COVID” and all agreed that it was the right term to use. 

Two members of the group were departing the lodge that night, which meant that JK and WG, who were among the five using the house, could sleep in the lodge instead.  They took advantage of the opportunity, despite the fact that it entailed packing a second time.  Their choice was understandable; the bunk beds that they occupied had no ladder or stepping stool for reaching the upper bunk and the room in which they were located was very small, necessitating their using the living room to store their luggage.  They therefore dined with the others at the lodge that evening, while EF, MJ, and I returned to the restaurant in Dunlap.

Day 8 (6/12):

Since there were only three of us in the house at this point and we had been getting up early all week, we were able to begin the drive back to the hotel close to the airport by 7:30, without making any effort to hurry.  EF and MJ were planning to visit relatives in the afternoon, while I myself wished to spend a few hours in San Francisco; so we had no objection to arriving at the hotel early, even if it meant stowing our luggage there and checking in later in the evening.  As matters turned it, that was not necessary; we were able to enter our rooms upon our arrival, which occurred just before noon.  We made a brief stop on the way, selecting another fruit stand.  I picked up some almonds and pistachios there, as well as a small bag of Rainier cherries. 

Millbrae, where the hotel is located, appears to contain a number of hotels for use by travelers who wish to stay close to the airport, and as a result it has a BART station, from which it is possible to ride directly into San Francisco itself.  I went there without any particular plans in mind.  I wished merely to wander about and enjoy the sights of the city for a few hours.  It is perhaps one of the best walking cities in the nation.  My navigations were anything but thorough, and yet I walked for about eight miles in all, getting off at the Embarcadero station, going along the wharf for several blocks, then up Telegraph Hill to Coit Tower (which unfortunately was closed but good views were available even at its base), then along to Washington Square and Little Italy and Chinatown (where I had some dim sum for dinner) and Market St. and Valencia St., making my way back to the station at 16th and Mission St., and returning thence to Millbrae. 

It is as exhilarating as ever, changing in character almost from one block to the next, with numerous weekend celebrations going on in various corners.  Many were picnicking on the lawn of Washington Square and the restaurants along Valencia Street appeared to be operating at full capacity.  Two young men performed a demonstration in Chinatown, donning dragon’s-head costumes and displaying various movements for the amusement of the crowds and of the children in particular. 

But amid all of these demonstrations of easy and careless merriment there were signs that the city has suffered during the pandemic.  Several businesses were boarded up, and there are no signs of their re-opening at any time in the near future.  There were many more homeless people than I remembered from previous visits.  San Francisco has always had a sizable number of homeless on its streets, but it was my impression – and I may be mistaken, for it is many years since I last visited the city – that there were more of them than I had seen on earlier visits and that they are in worse condition:  more obviously under-nourished, more despondent in bearing. 

On returning to the hotel I sat with some of the others in the pool area during the evening.  The pool was closed on account of the pandemic restrictions, but we could sit on the chairs underneath the canopies in the tranquil setting of the courtyard surrounded by clusters of roses and oleander.  We had an animated discussion on numerous topics.  ML and JF, who have had extensive experience in hospital work, spoke about the stresses that nurses have been undergoing during the pandemic, which are driving them to the point of exhaustion.  I mentioned to JF how my cousin, who is an operating room (OR) nurse, prefers to be assisting in even the most distressing operations than dealing with the emotional stress of attending patients in a hospital room, and she nodded in immediate comprehension. 

In the course of the conversation ML mentioned how a description in the hiking book directs user to “wind” up a certain path; and that there was no way outside of context to tell whether this word referred to an air movement or to traversing a curving route.  From here we went on to a discussion of the difficulties of the English language generally; and since I have had to devote some study to this matter in college, I was asked to expound on the matter.

English, then, is a rather uneasy marriage of convenience between two greatly different language groups:  the original Anglo-Saxon belonging to the Teutonic, or Germanic, branch of the Indo-European language family and the overlaying Norman French being, in essence, a Latin dialect just like Spanish, Italian, Portuguese, Romanian, and so on.  Although the original Anglo-Saxon provides the roots of less than half of the words  in use for modern English, these words are the most basic and most commonly used, and they tend to sound more straightforward than their Latinate equivalents.  We place greater value, for instance, on a “hearty welcome” than on a “cordial reception.” 

In some ways the enforced melding of two languages with highly dissimilar grammars and syntaxes worked out to the English speakers’ advantage.  English grammar is simpler than those of either of its parents.  English, for instance, features biological gender; the pronouns “he” and “she” refer almost exclusively to objects that are obviously masculine or feminine.  We do not have to puzzle out, as Germans do, as to why “wein” is masculine and “bier” is neuter, why every “katze” – including tomcats – is feminine, or why (perhaps most ridiculous of all) a “mädchen” (maiden) is neuter.  Declensions of nouns by case are so simple that the term “declension” is hardly ever mentioned in discussion of English grammar; nouns use the same word whether they are employed as subjects, direct objects, or indirect objects.  Articles (“the” and “a”) are not declined at all.  Contrast this with German, in which the article for each noun is governed by the noun’s gender and has a different form for each of the four cases in which a noun can be used.  In other words, if one wishes to precede a noun with the equivalent of “the” without being aware of the noun’s gender, there are eight possible separate words to choose from, with only one of them being correct.  Again, English uses the subjunctive mood far less frequently than French or German, and it is quite possible to dispense with it altogether.  No one will be puzzled if an English speaker says “I wish I was” instead of “I wish I were”; the meaning is obvious no matter which option is used.

But gains such as these do not really eliminate the rating of English as “difficult.”  English spelling provides almost as little guide to pronunciation as Chinese ideographs.  Sometimes the spelling reflects the language’s Germanic roots and sometimes it reflects its Latin roots.  “Colonel” is a notorious example of a word in which spelling has not kept up with changes in pronunciation.  The word came to English from the mid-16th-century French word “coronelle,” meaning commander of a regiment of soldiers.  By the mid-17th century, the spelling and French pronunciation had changed to “colonnel.” In English the spelling was changed but the pronunciation was simply shortened to two syllables.

English is also a great borrower of words from numerous other languages, some of them that do not even use the same alphabet as we do, and there is no attempt to impose any kind of uniformity upon them.  Again, “wind” is not the only word that has two different pronunciations with differing sets of definitions.  “Read” is an especially confusing word; when it is pronounced like the color “red” it is the past tense of the verb, and when it is pronounced like the “reed” that grows in a river it is the present tense of the same verb.  Speaking of definitions, certain words in English can be employed for an astonishing variety of meanings.  The Oxford English Dictionary description of the definitions of “set” runs to about 60,000 words, well over the length of several novels.

Then there is the issue of dialects, which we actually did not touch upon and which is too complicated a subject to be described in a few paragraphs.  Suffice it to say that when even native speakers of English read fiction by novelists who specialize in regionalized speech, such as Thomas Hardy, a miniature dictionary has to be supplied. 

Such was the manner in which we wound up the trip on which we had traveled together.  It had been a long time since we had been able to spend our days in this fashion, traveling together, hiking together, eating and drinking together, conversing together.  There had been be various meetings among members of the group during the course of the pandemic, but nothing on so large a scale or for such an expanded amount of time.  The trip, as I mentioned, was not unaffected by the conditions of the pandemic; but on the whole, I hope, it may be regarded as an indicator that the pandemic is indeed coming to an end.

June 4, 2021

A delinquent who is juvenile to the extreme – Trump’s inexplicable mesmerism – Wegovy as an obesity drug – Evening statistics

It’s been a rather uneventful day, with me being mainly focused on preparations for the trip to California.  It has been uneventful on a national scale as well, and there is little in the news except for odds and ends.

A strange case has occurred in Brasher Falls, a small community in upstate New York.  A young male has been arrested on a charge of third-degree rape and will be tried as a juvenile delinquent.  Nothing particularly unusual in that, one would say – except that, in this case, the accused is seven years old.  Few details about the case have emerged, on account of the young ages of both the accused and the victim.  An incident occurred during a Thanksgiving celebration that prompted troopers to be called in, and they ended by arresting this fearsome menace from the second grade.  He was cited and later released.  The case has since been sent to a family court.  Child advocates are up in arms about the matter, solemnly proclaiming that arrests of children traumatize them and lock them into the prison system, making it likely that they will become repeat offenders.  No one appears to be overly perturbed by the fact that the charge in question is a physical impossibility.  I have no doubt that some sort of bullying occurred, but a seven-year old boy, however dishonorable he may be in intention, lacks certain  . . . equipment, shall we say, to carry out that particular operation. 

Even though he is out of office, Donald Trump continues to exercise his strange ability to rob people of their common sense and self-respect.  George P. Bush, the son of Jeb Bush, announced this week that he was going to be running for Texas’ attorney general in 2022, and in the course of this effort he has been attempting to gain Trump’s endorsement, even to the extent of releasing merchandise featuring the former President.  Trump has repeatedly attacked Bush’s father and for good measure he has referred to Columba Bush, George P.’s mother, as a “Mexican illegal.”  Bush’s case is hardly unique, of course.  Ronna McDaniel, chair of the Republican National Committee, is the niece of Mitt Romney, Trump’s determined opponent; and she is quite blatant about giving Trump her preference.  Mitch McConnell endorsed Trump after the latter insulted his wife; and Ted Cruz went one better, becoming Trump’s adherent after Trump not only insulted his wife but accused his father of being involved in the assassination of John F. Kennedy.  Greg Pence is the brother of Mike Pence, and although Trump supporters repeatedly shouted “Hang Mike Pence!” when they assaulted the Capitol, he has voted against investigating the attack.  For that matter, Mike Pence himself has refused to condemn Trump overtly for his role in that treasonous attempt.  In the words of CNN anchor Briana Keilar, “Blood may be thicker than water, but apparently it’s not thicker than Kool-Aid.”

The FDA has approved Wegovy, currently used as a diabetes medication, to be sold as a weight-loss drug.  In various experiments, participants have lost about 15% of their body weight over a period of 16 months, after which they reach a “plateau.”  The current obesity drugs have up to this point achieved no better than a 5%-10% weight loss reduction.  Obesity is certainly a problem in this country, as I have noted in previous entries.  The amount of the national population considered obese is now about 36.2%, one of the highest rates in the world.  Only various micro-states (mainly island nations in Micronesia) have a higher ratio of obese citizens.  Nations with comparable lifestyles have significantly lower rates:  29.4% in Canada, 22.3% in Germany, 4.3% in Japan.  Sometimes such drugs are necessary.  Physicians may prescribe them for patients whose body-mass index (BMI) is 30 or higher, or for patients whose BMI is over 27 and who medical complications such as diabetes or high blood pressure.  Unfortunately many people seem to be unaware that such drugs are meant as supplements to diet control and exercise, not as substitutes.  Like most drugs, they can have unpleasant side effects:  palpitations, increased heart rate, nausea, insomnia, hypertension, diarrhea, flatulence, abdominal pain, dyspepsia, among others. 

It’s difficult to say what to do about this issue.  Dependence on drugs is obviously a second-best solution; but the medical establishment has repeatedly stressed the importance of leading a healthy lifestyle and its warnings have apparently had little effect.  When I was working, I customarily took a two-mile walk during my lunch hour.  My colleagues looked upon such a practice as something unusual, and there were very few occasions when any of them could be persuaded to accompany me – and this attitude, I think, encapsulates the attitude of a large segment of our population towards physical activity.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  173,299,985; # of deaths worldwide: 3,726,677; # of cases U.S.: 34,191,257; # of deaths; U.S.: 612,202.

June 3, 2021

Restrictions continue to diminish – The July 4 vaccine goal – Increased risk for anti-vaxxers – The Democratic nomination for New York mayor – An unusual radio interview – A last-minute wedding – Evening statistics

More adjustments in the guidelines provided by the CDC were announced today.  Vaccinated people are not expected to get tested or to quarantine under most circumstances.  There are exceptions: 1) those who display symptoms of COVID, such as fever, coughing, and fatigue; 2) those who work in facilities that potentially may have a greater concentration of disease, such as hospitals, homeless shelters, prisons, etc.; 3) those who are returning from international travel.  Even these recommendations may be relaxed in the near future.  There is a considerable amount of unnecessary testing going about at the moment, since the symptoms for COVID to a great degree overlap with those of the common cold. 

Nearly seven-eighths of all seniors have received one dose and 75% are fully vaccinated.  For adults over 18, the figures are 63% who have received one dose and 52% who are fully vaccinated.  We still need to see about 18 million people receive a first dose to meet Biden’s goal of 70% of the adult population having at least one dose by July 4th.  Various corporations are providing encouragement to take the vaccine doses.  Childcare chains BrightHorizons, KinderCare, and Learning Care Group, as well as about 500 YMCA outlets in 28 states, are supplying provide free service while parents get vaccinated. Younger people, who are less vulnerable to the virus – although they can still transmit it to others readily enough – have shown less eagerness to get vaccinated than other segments of the population.  They have therefore been given an incentive that hardly any American college student can resist:  namely, free beer.  Anheuser-Busch declared on Wednesday morning that it would buy beer for all Americans of legal drinking age if Biden’s goal for Independence Day was met.  Regrettably (for I greatly prefer wine to beer) none of the major wineries have followed this example. 

The results of the vaccines have already been felt.  COVID cases have fallen by 45% over the past two weeks.  Hospitalizations have gone down by 72% and deaths by 44%.  The goal of 70% of adults receiving their first shot by July should be feasible; the 70% mark has already been reached in twelve states.  It would require about 550,000 people getting a first shot each day between now and July 4th.  Before Memorial Day, the average was over 700,000 daily, although the vaccination rate is falling. 

Even if we fulfill that goal it means, of course, that 30% of the adult population will still be unvaccinated, and several variants a good deal more contagious than the original are now spreading throughout the world.  The unvaccinated will be at greater risk as the restrictions ease and facemasks and social distancing are no longer enforced, and most of the COVID-related hospitalizations and deaths in future will, in all probability, come from this group.  The anti-vaxxers may appear to have undergone a more severe fate than mere folly warrants.  I leave them to all of the pity that others may bestow upon them.

The debate for the Democratic candidacy of New York City mayor was long and bitter; but on one point most of the contenders were in firm agreement.  Of the eight striving to be nominated, seven emphatically declared that they do not want Bill DeBlasio, the current mayor, to endorse them.  Only Andrew Yang expressed any willingness to receive an endorsement if offered, and it did not appear to be a matter of great concern to him whether he was endorsed or not, since he continually assailed DeBlasio during the debate, accusing him of squandering the relief money that the city received for COVID relief and paving the way for massive deficits.  DeBlasio responded to this unenthusiastic response to his endorsement by saying “It just proves they’re politicians now.”  What he meant, poor man, who can say?  Can anyone who is not a politician run in an election for mayor of the largest city in the country?

Louise Fischer of Radio 4 went to extraordinary lengths yesterday to deliver all the news that is fit to print . . . or to be heard, at any rate.  In reporting on Swingland, a sex club in Copenhagen that had recently re-opened after COVID-related restrictions were lifted, she was propositioned by one of the men she was interviewing – and she accepted.  According to her, the offer was made tactfully and she did not feel pressured in any way.  “I don’t have a boyfriend,” she added; “that definitely made it a lot easier.”  Radio listeners that morning were greeted by the sounds of her ecstatic moans and of bodies slapping together as she conducted on-the-record intercourse.  Her relatives do not appear to be unduly upset by her initiative.  “My mother just thinks it’s funny and laughs,” she said, “my father thought it was really cool.”  Radio subscribers seem have agreed; the reaction was overwhelmingly positive.  Tina Kragelund, Radio 4’s head of news, said that the station approved of the move – not surprisingly, since the ratings spiked after this journalistic coup.  “I just think it’s cool when the reporters try to make the stories in a different way,” she explained. 

From this rather ludicrous story I move on to one that is both sad and grotesque.  In Uttar Pradesh a woman named Surabhi and man named Mangesh Kumar were getting married and in the midst of the the jaimala (the ritual of exchanging of garlands by the bride and the groom in a Hindu wedding), when Surabhi collapsed as she suffered a heart attack.  A doctor was called in, but she died within minutes.  However, the relatives of both the groom and the bride decided that a wedding ceremony must not go to waste; so they produced Surabhi’s younger sister Nisha as a substitute.   The couple were married after Surabhi’s body had been removed.  It made no difference to Mangesh Kumar, apparently; about 90% of marriages in India are arranged (and for that matter, about 55% of marriages are arranged worldwide) and since all of the appropriate financial negotiations had already been made, the identity of the actual woman he was to marry was a secondary consideration.  The only dissentient voice came from Saurabh, brother to both Surabhi and Nisha.  “It was a bizarre situation,” he said, “as the wedding of my younger sister was being solemnized while the body of my dead sister was lying in another room.”

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 172,882,944; # of deaths worldwide: 3,716,227; # of cases U.S.: 34,173,426; # of deaths; U.S.: 611,572.

June 2, 2021

John Calvin and critical race theory – Accident in Sequoia – An anti-vaxxer infected with COVID – Evening statistics

In 1536 the first edition of that enormously influential book, Institutio Christianae Religionis (or Institutes of the Christian Religion), was published and disseminated throughout Europe.  It contains, among other topics, an expansion of the concept of original sin.  The concept was not new, of course; many Church fathers were adherents of this doctrine even before Augustine (354-430), one of its most vigorous proponents.   But this work not only expounded the idea more systematically than any of its predecessors but included the idea of “particular election,” that some few individuals – chosen, apparently, completely at random – are designated by God for salvation, with everyone else being condemned to eternal punishment.

It is obvious that the proponents of the so-called “critical race theory” think exactly along the same lines.  Kate Slater, an assistant dean of Brandeis University, recently announced that “all white people are racist” and that she hates “whiteness.”  Brandeis University is a private institution that costs about $57,000 a year per student, and its student body is only about 5% black; but that makes no difference.  According to Slater and her ilk, I am condemned to eternal hellfire (or at any rate its secular equivalent) on account of my race and sex, and there is nothing I can do about it.  On the other hand a black person, and a black woman in particular, has a chance of being one of the “elect.”  The proponents of critical race theory are thoroughly orthodox Calvinists, although they probably don’t know it.

A disquieting event occurred on Monday, when a man lost his balance and fell, fatally, about 500 feet from the summit ridge of Mt. Russell in Sequoia National Park.  He was hiking with two others; one of these tried to catch him but was unable to break his fall and she herself fell about 30 feet.  She was injured but is in good condition.  Considering that a group of us will be going to Sequoia National Park ourselves in a few days to hike there and that some of the planned hikes are in the Mount Russell area, this occurrence is a fairly dramatic reminder about the need to exercise caution.  Sequoia is one of the most dangerous national parks in the U.S., with only three others exceeding it in the number of deaths over the past ten years:  Grand Canyon, Yosemite, and Great Smoky Mountains.  I have hiked in all three of these, with no noticeable ill effects, but it is just as well not to be over-confident when venturing on the trails that any national park contains.  Incidentally, Shenandoah National Park, which I and my friends visit so frequently, is by no means free from risk; it has had 25 deaths over the past ten years.

Pastor Rick Wiles, a fervent opponent of vaccination (he has described the COVID vaccines as “global genocide”) has come down with the COVID virus and is now so severely ill as to warrant being sent to a hospital for treatment.  His church has posted a request for congregants to pray on his behalf and to repost this request on their own social media pages so that “there’s an army of people praying.”  I fear that this episode will not end happily.  He may recover.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 172,391,667; # of deaths worldwide: 3,705,311; # of cases U.S.: 34,151,486; # of deaths; U.S.: 610,951.

The link to the complete journal is:  https://betulacordifolia.com/?order=asc

June 1, 2021

On the Austin Mountain and Furnace Mountain Trails – Carpooling – Hay bales – The recount in Arizona – Wuhan Institute – Millennials and home-owning – Reduction in incidence of other viruses – Evening statistics

One would expect a hike organized by the Vigorous Hikers, from the group’s very name, would not fail to produce an occasion for considerable exertion; and so it proved today, when we went up the Austin Mountain Trail, then down to the Doyles River Falls, up again via the Jones River Trail, ascending to Blackrock Mountain, and then returning via the Furnace Mountain Trail.  A talus is the main feature of the side of Austin Mountain traversed by the Austin Mountain Trail, which crosses over it numerous times, offering the usual challenges to maintaining balance that walking on fields of scree generally involve; the ascent from the Doyle River to Skyline Drive via the Jones River Trail, though fairly moderate in grade most of the time, goes upwards continually for over 4 miles; and the Furnace Mountain Trail is nearly as rocky as the Austin Mountain Trail.  The hike amounts to about 17 miles in length and slightly over 4100 feet in elevation gain.  But there are suitable rewards for these efforts.  We passed among several groves of mountain laurel in full bloom, and many clusters of columbine as well, there are numerous waterfalls along the descent to Doyle’s River, and the views from Blackrock are some of the best in Shenandoah National Park.   When we reached Blackrock, of course, we climbed up the boulders to reach the summit and observe the views of Trayfoot Mountain to the west and Austin Mountain to the north, in addition to the Shenandoah Valley and the Massanutten Mountain beyond.  Even though the weather became rather warm in the afternoon, a fresh breeze at the summit cooled us down after the effort of ascending the Jones River Trail.

This particular hike represented another landmark:  carpooling for hikes has begun again and, as one of the other hikers volunteered to be the driver, I rode as a passenger on the trips to and from the trailhead – the first time I have done so for about 16 months.  How good it felt to be spared the effort of driving after a hike of many miles! 

During the drive we passed through the pretty little village of Port Republic, a river port at the confluence of the North and South Rivers, which converge to form the South Fork of the Shenandoah River.  It was incorporated as a town in 1802 and was the site of many mills, on account of its proximity to water power.  We also saw several hay bales, shaped into cylindrical forms and wrapped in plastic.  I was curious enough to look up how such bales are created (and encouraged in such an effort by BR and EP, my fellow-hikers in the car).  In earlier times, hay was stacked in a manner that made it waterproof.  Eventually the hay would compress under its own weight and “cure” (dry out to such a degree that forestalls development of toxins that would otherwise be created by moist, wet hay).   In modern forms a farm machine known as a baler is used to compress cut and raked crops into bales configured to dry.  The most common type of bale today is the rounded bale, which are more moisture-resistant and allow the hay to be packed more compactly than square bales.  Bales are often encased in wrappers (as was the case with the ones we saw today), which accelerate a fermentation process for better preservation of the hay from rot.

On the ride back we spoke of the recount of the electoral vote in Arizona.  EP said that the recount uncovered evidence of 20,000 votes cast by illegal immigrants.  I am not certain from which source she obtained this information.  I could not find confirmation of it anywhere on the Internet.  The audit is still pending and will continue for some time, possibly as late as the end of June.  Donald Trump has indeed claimed that the entire database of votes in Maricopa County has been deleted; and he has further alleged that “seals were broken on the boxes that hold the votes, ballots are missing, and worse.”  Maricopa County Stephen Richer, a Republican, responded afterwards by calling such claims “unhinged” and “insane lies.”  Considering Trump’s track record on such matters (and indeed on all others), I allow that Richer has given a very rational account of the matter; and until someone produces solid evidence, as opposed to mere assertions, of outside interference, I must take such accusations on Trump’s part to be nothing more than examples of his folly, his vanity, and his pride.

We also discussed the possibility of the COVID virus originating from a laboratory in Wuhan rather than from animal-to-human transition, as was originally believed.  This hypothesis is becoming increasingly more probable.  Lab accidents occur fairly frequently.  The Wuhan Institute studies coronaviruses in bats, and it is quite possible that it conducted “gain of function” research, in which diseases are deliberately made more virulent.  Virologists have been using such methods for years, despite warnings by various safety experts that they are playing with fire.  Moreover, the Institute may well have been conducting such research at the behest of the American medical establishment.  Dr. Fauci has admitted that the National Institute of Health earmarked $600,000 for the Wuhan Institute over a five-year period to determine whether bat coronaviruses could be transmitted to humans.  If the accusation of the COVID virus emerging from the lab is indeed proved, we can expect shockwaves reverberating for some time to come.  The backlash that they will inspire may have the regrettable result of enabling Trump to regain the presidency; he has announced his intention to run for the office in 2024.

My belief that younger generations are contending with more economic difficulties than my own had to deal with received some corroboration today by a poll that suggests that nearly two-thirds of millennials regret having bought a home.  High prices and tight inventory have created new affordability challenges for millennials, who have reached peak age for first-time homeownership.  The estimates for the housing shortage range from 2.5 to 3.8 million, as a result of contractors under-building houses for about a dozen years, a lumber shortage, and the pandemic.  As a result of the intense competition among would-be house-owners, many millennials acquire a home by paying well above market price.  A significant number have bought what in my day was known as a “handyman’s special,” i.e., a house whose price was lowered on account of the numerous repairs that it required.  Even those with extensive carpentering experience have been forced to pay out much more in fixing up their home than they anticipated.  In the poll cited above, 20% of millennial home-owners said that they regretted buying a house on account of expensive maintenance costs, while 13% said that they overpaid for their homes.  In addition, more millennials are saddled with crippling amounts of student debt, to the extent of making it impossible for them to obtain enough for a down payment.   

Although the pandemic is waning – in the U.K. it is reported that the nation has passed a 24-hour period without a single COVID-related death – certain practices that were used to counter it should probably still be continued.  The wearing of facemasks and the use of disinfecting sanitizers has dramatically reduced a large number of childhood ailments.  Influenza cases diminished this past year by 99% in Europe, the U.S., and other parts of the Northern Hemisphere.  The U.S. recorded just 1 influenza-related death of a child in the 2020/2021 winter season, as opposed to 199 during the preceding winter.  Chickenpox cases in the U.S. fell by two-thirds, with similar results in Japan and Europe.  The rotavirus, a common cause of diarrhea and vomiting among children, was down this past year by 99% in Japan and by 95% in Germany.  The norovirus, another cause of nausea and diarrhea, was down by 94% in Germany this past year.  As people weary of the pandemic no doubt many of the preventative measures will no longer be followed; but it still seems advisable to wear facemasks during the winter season, when viral infections are at their peak.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:                 171,899,564; # of deaths worldwide: 3,575,254; # of cases U.S.: 34,133,807; # of deaths; U.S.: 610,380.