Month: July 2021

Plague fatigue – The virus in East Asia and the Antipodes – Patrick Buchanan on the January 6^th riot – The border crisis – Why the investigation is needed – Evening statistics

“I feel more discouraged now than I did a year ago,” one friend told me, “even though the numbers for this new wave are not as much as the other ones.  It doesn’t make sense, does it?” 

I think it makes perfect sense.  In some ways the situation is more difficult psychologically than it was in the earlier phases.  In accounts about plagues not much attention is given to the trials people undergo during the recovery phase.  In general it is assumed that the plague recedes, after which the survivors – weary and sad, undoubtedly, many of them grieving for lost relatives and friends – begin to pick up the pieces again and by degrees embark on the business of restoration.  But this half-and-half situation, in which one part of society lives in an environment in which the plague is effectively contained and matters are nearly restored to normal, while another part continues to get infected and its death toll continues to mount is, I believe, somewhat less common, or at any rate not written about very much.  A year ago the population as a whole were aware that the disease was a threat to everybody and that we all needed to rally together to combat it.  It cannot be said that we Americans were particularly successful in this respect; still, the perception was there and the need to take protective measures was acknowledged, even if we could not reach agreement about the nature of the measures to take.  Now the nation is effectively split in two, with those who are protected as a result of the vaccines are at odds with those who have rejected them.  Many health care professionals in particular resent those who have been hospitalized as a result of their refusal to accept the vaccines – it is not openly discussed, but the resentment is widespread, and some have simply dropped out altogether, saying that they have done enough already and that they are not obliged to fish foolish people out of the mud they have walked into.  The unvaccinated, in turn, feel that they are being bullied into accepting a vaccine that has not obtained full FDA approval (the vaccines have the status of Emergency Use Authorization, full approval being a careful and painstaking process that requires many months to complete).  In short, we are suffering when what I call “plague fatigue,” and everyone’s nerves are a bit on edge as a result.

This new wave, of course, has been affecting many other countries besides our own.  Nations that were previously all but free from the disease have now experienced surges in cases.  Vietnam, which once had known hardly any cases on account of its rigorous controls imposed since the beginning of the pandemic, has by now experienced nearly 150,000 cases of COVID.  It is still quite a small number in proportion to its national population, less than 0.15%.  Malaysia, again, has changed from its status as a national with a minimal number of cases to that of something of a hotspot, with 3.3% of the population having come down with the disease.  Japan, Australia, and Thailand have also seen dramatic increases.  New Zealand, however, has held firm; it has only 45 active cases at this point; out of a population of slightly over 5 million, it has sustained 26 deaths.

Patrick Buchanan wrote an article on the investigation into the riot of January 6^th, which I was sufficiently curious to read.  Patrick Buchanan’s name is, I suspect, less familiar to later generations than to my own.  He was a well-known political commentator in his day, of the type that is sometimes described as “paleo-conservative,” and at one point he ran as an Independent presidential candidate, without, however, any very notable success – he obtained no electoral college votes and a bare 0.4% of the popular vote.  He was always a bit too extreme for my tastes, but he was an honest man in the main; for instance, in the controversy about the confusing design of the Florida ballots in the 2000 election, he said that when he first saw the ballot he could readily understand how it might be possible for a voter to cast a vote for Buchanan himself in the belief that he was voting for Democratic candidate Al Gore instead.  Moreover, Buchanan wrote an eloquent tribute about Ronald Reagan upon the death of the latter; and for that reason alone I was willing to give him a hearing, feeling fairly well-assured that he would not attempt to defend the antics of Donald Trump during the aftermath of the 2020 election.  I may say at once that he did not and that, indeed, he barely mentioned Trump’s name at all.  The argument he gave against having an investigative committee delve into the events of January 6^th is not in line with the usual rhetoric of Kevin McCarthy and his like, and is worth looking at in some detail.

Basically, Buchanan’s position amounts to this:  that the people besieging the Capitol were conducting a demonstration that eventually expanded into a riot, as many political demonstrations have done, and that while the riot was a disgraceful episode – and he uses the word “disgraceful” – it was simply that:  an episode, and not an event deserving a focus that he describes as obsessive.  It would be far better, he argued, that the Congress concentrate on a far more wide-ranging crisis:  namely, the influx at the border of numerous illegal aliens, and the fact that Biden has consistently hampered the efforts of various state governors to contain them.

Biden has certainly been handling the border crisis recklessly and irresponsibly.  Governor Abbott of Texas, for example, recently issued an order allowing Texas Department of Public Safety troopers to reroute civilian vehicles back to their origin point or a port of entry, or to seize the vehicles, if police suspect the driver is transporting migrants who have COVID.  The Biden administration has sued the state on this account and one federal spokesman argued that singling out people for interrogation simply because they are undocumented is an invasion of privacy – completely ignoring the fact that entering a country clandestinely and without documentation of any kind is in itself an invasion, particularly when multiplied by a factor of several hundred thousand.  It has been projected that Biden’s policies will enable about 2 million undocumented foreign nationals to enter the country annually.  He has persisted in this program with dogged obstinacy and – what is particularly remarkable – against his own interests.  He desires to be known as the president who was able to contain the virus and to restore the country to its former degree of health and prosperity.  But the influx of thousands of undocumented people from Latin America, which has one of greatest concentrations of the virus on the planet, cannot fail to introduce a large number of infected people into the general population and thereby to undo, to some extent, the benefits of the vaccines Biden has striven so vigorously to administer.  The issue is a pressing one and it certainly deserves more attention both from Congress and from the popular press than it is currently receiving.

Nonetheless, Buchanan’s claim that the attack on the Capitol was merely an ordinary riot that got out of hand is disingenuous.  It was not an ordinary riot.  It was an attempted coup d’état.  The rioters entered the building with the explicit intention of compelling Congress by threats to rescind its ratification of the Electoral College votes; and, if they had had the opportunity to come in contact with any Congress members, it is more than probable that they would have gone beyond mere threats.  The exact role that Donald Trump played in this event is still unclear.  Presumably the investigation currently ongoing in Congress will shed some light on the matter.  It would be inaccurate to say that he orchestrated it – that would imply strategic abilities and a capacity for detailed planning that he simply does not possess.  At this point no one knows the extent to which he deliberately goaded them in advance or whether he confined himself to cheering them on after the fact.  But there can be no question that they launched their attack with his full approval, that he urged them in their violence, and that, had they succeeded in intimidating Congress to overturn the Electoral College vote, he would have used the opportunity to remain in the Oval Office.  It is bare justice to acknowledge that he has made no secret of his determination to overturn the results of the election by any means that come to his hand, be they fair or foul. 

Boris Johnson’s wife Carrie announced today that she is pregnant with a second child.  She had miscarried earlier this year, but if this birth comes to term it will bring the total number of children fathered by the British Prime Minister to  . . . no one knows, exactly.  He has had four children by a previous wife and another one from a brief liaison with an art consultant.  There were numerous other episodes of this nature, some of which undoubtedly had consequences.  He has refused to disclose how many children he has had from these affairs; possibly he himself has lost count by this time.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 198,499,214; # of deaths worldwide: 4,232,165; # of cases U.S.:  35,743,144; # of deaths; U.S.: 629,310.

Visiting Buzzard Rock – Vaccination regulations for federal workers – Vaccination regulations for Broadway theater participants – Rise in vaccination rate – Evening statistics

Today I went with RS to continue investigating the best way of getting up to the ridgeline on the Virginia side of the Potomac to access Buzzard’s Rock and, what is more to the point, the best way of getting down to the river bank afterwards.  There are the remains of a footpath along part of the ridge, although it is broken in parts here and there, while any way down from the heights to the Potomac remains quite a scramble.  Still, it is something of a surprise that there is no trail cleared out for such a route.  Buzzard Rock provides a bird’s-eye view over the Potomac to Weverton and, from the evidence of saplings cut down in places and of grasses and other low-growing plants trimmed down and pruned on the rudimentary footpath, others besides RS and myself have made our way to see it.  The area is within bounds of park property, so it is possible to reach the rock outcropping without going through private property.  The weather was somewhat less hot than it has been for many days previously, and during all of the time we were on the ridgeline and even when we were descending towards the river, a fresh breeze blew continually, making the hike surprisingly comfortable.  I cannot say that we were entirely successful in finding a good way to get down – we had to scramble over many loose rocks at a very steep incline in places – but at any rate we found a less difficult way than the ones we had chosen during our previous excursions, and we are able, from the knowledge of the terrain we have acquired from this and previous excursions, to determine a route that, while still strenuous, could be made into a serviceable trail.  On the previous occasions that I went with RS to Buzzards Rock, the weather was either too cloudy or too wet to provide much opportunity for viewing, but today was sunny and clear, with the haze from the wildfires nearly gone, and so I had the opportunity to gaze across the river to the town of Sandy Hook and the outcropping on Weverton Cliffs, where I have often ascended in the past.

Federal workers and contractors are now required to supply proof that they are vaccinated or submit to regular testing.  President Biden was initially reluctant to impose extreme measures, but the rising number of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths place all Americans at risk, vaccinated and unvaccinated alike, and also threaten to undermine the economy.   He is paying a political price for sticking to his convictions in this matter.  Several unions, which up to this point have been a significant faction in his political base, are pushing back against this requirement, saying that such a requirement violates employees’ right to privacy.  Such unions include the American Postal Workers Union, the Federal Law Enforcement Officers Association, the National Treasury Employees Union, National Nurses United, and the American Federation of Government Employees, several of which represent well over 100,000 members apiece. 

And another, somewhat unexpected agency is enforcing vaccinations upon its participants – namely, the Broadway theaters.  When various theaters open during the coming weeks, all audience members will be required to wear masks and be able to show proof that they have been vaccinated.  Vaccinations will also be required for all performers, crew members and theater employees.  It will be rather curious to see how theater managers will enforce such regulations – for their own employees the matter is straightforward enough, but how will they be able to check on audience members?  Will each one be required to display his vaccination card (or an authenticated copy of one) along with his ticket before entering?  It does not seem practical; lines of people entering to take their seats will move much more slowly if ushers or ticket-sellers are required to scan vaccination cards of every person entering and, in general, make theater-viewing a less comfortable experience, which discourage many from seeking it.

There is an increase generally in vaccinations as the delta variant continues to spread. The number of first vaccine doses, or new people getting their first shots, is up 31% compared with a week ago and is rising in nearly every state. Nearly 800,000 shots were recorded nationwide on Sunday, the highest single-day total in weeks, while the seven-day average of reported vaccinations, including first and second shots, has risen by 16% over the past week to 615,000 shots per day as of yesterday.  Unquestionably it is time.  Today alone witnessed an increase of more than 90,000 new infections.  The pace of daily shots remains far from peak levels, when more than 3 million daily vaccinations, counting both doses, were being reported in mid-April.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 197,951,334; # of deaths worldwide: 4,223,143; # of cases U.S.:  35,677,736; # of deaths; U.S.: 628,929.   At this point about 500,000 Americans have become infected with the virus over the past week.

Hiking in Calvert Cliffs and Cypress Swamp – Recurrence of mask mandates in several areas – COVID fells another anti-vaxxer – Further Republican demonstrations of treachery – Evening statistics

I scouted the hike in Calvert Cliffs State Park that I am to lead for the Capital Hiking Club on August 28^th, and it is a good thing that I did.  I have not been there for at least two years, and many of the details of the hike had faded in my memory.  In addition, the boardwalk is closed on account of blowdowns, which necessitated some re-routing.  The long hike is about 9½ to 10 miles, but the elevation gain is only 900 feet, and it seems to be still less on account of the gentle slope of the majority of the hills.  The hike at one point skirts along a marsh that at this season is covered with beautiful pink-tipped, white-petaled water-lilies and it eventually reaches a beach along the Chesapeake Bay, which is the site of numerous shark-teeth fossils.  The water is very warm at this time of year and I enjoyed a swim there, despite the presence of sea nettles.  Sea nettles are a type of jellyfish, but their sting is not especially dangerous or lasting.  They are quite numerous this year on account of temperature of the water, which is higher than usual; but I did not allow them to deter me.  Although I got stung a few times, the tingling quickly faded once I eventually got out of the water and dried myself.    

Afterwards I went to Battle Creek Cypress Swamp, a forested wetland near Prince Frederick that is one of the northernmost sites of naturally occurring bald cypress trees in North America.  We generally stop there after finishing the Calvert Cliffs hike; it is a small place (only 100 acres) with trails totaling to perhaps a mile in all, but these lead through (or over, for much of it is boardwalk) a swamp with the majestic trees (even the smallest of them are well over 30 feet), their densely-growing lacy green leaves forming a protective canopy that provides a cool and comfortable stroll even during a humid day in July.

Many states and cities have been re-instituting the mask mandate as a result of the CDC guidelines.  Washington DC is among these, which is hardly surprising.  Muriel Bowser, the city mayor, lost a sister to the pandemic, so she naturally is fairly wary about the rate of infection within the area in her jurisdiction.  In any case, most DC residents have not ceased to wear masks out of doors even after the CDC relaxed its guidelines.  Other cities that have re-instituted the mask mandates include Atlanta and Kansas City, while the states of New Mexico, Illinois, and Oregon have issued the mandates on a state-wide level.  Phil Murphy, the governor of New Jersey, has not issued a mask mandate for his state yet, citing the fairly low levels of new infections there; but he has indicated that he will put one in place if the infections increase.  On the other hand, the governors of Michigan, Maryland, and Pennsylvania have all said that they have no plans to re-instate a mask mandate at this time. 

Yet another anti-vaxxer has discovered rather late in the day that the vaccines, after all, might have some merit.  William Ball of Mississippi staunchly declined to receive the vaccines after his wife Alicia had received her doses.  In this he is hardly alone:  Mississippi now holds the undesirable title of being the most unvaccinated of all 50 states, with only 34.4% of its residents being fully vaccinated.  He suffered a heart attack and, while he was recovering in the hospital, was stricken with COVID.  At the St. Dominic-Jackson Memorial Hospital, where he was being treated, 59 COVID patients are hospitalized, and as he learned to his cost, the Delta variant in particular is very infectious.  Now he is unable to sit up, his lungs are filled with fluid, and his recovery is uncertain.  In any case, he will be bedridden for days, if not weeks.  Alicia Ball was also infected, but she recovered quickly.  As a result of her husband’s experience, she is vigorously urging others to accept the vaccines.  “We have really tried to, after this, talk to as many of our friends and family as possible that they should get it,” she said.  “I never really realized how bad it would be – how bad this Delta variant would be.”  Quite a number of people are probably echoing her regrets:  today the nation’s daily increase in new cases was nearly 85,000 and the number of new deaths approached 400.

A Festival of Fools was held in the House of Representatives today – no, wait, I’m getting that mixed up with the Festival of Fools held in Burlington, VT, which is an annual 3-day event that brings together musicians and street performers to provide music, circus acts, and comedy for the participants.  While no one can question the folly of the activities of certain members of the House, their intentions are a good deal less benign:  specifically, members of the Freedom Caucus have urged Kevin McCarthy to expel Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger from the House Republican Conference for their temerity in wishing to bring the inciters of the besiegement of the Capitol of January 6^th to justice.   And McCarthy has shown himself to be senseless enough and pusillanimous enough to be likely to cave in to their demand.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 197,298,080; # of deaths worldwide: 4,212,951; # of cases U.S.:  35,571,633; # of deaths; U.S.: 628,467.

Vaccination requirements for some IT professionals – The two increasingly dissimilar groups of U.S. counties – Resistance to the mask mandate recommendation – One dissentient in particular – Evening statistics

Several large companies in information technology are requiring vaccinations for their U.S. employees in to get COVID vaccinations before entering campuses.  This cannot exactly be regarded as an inducement to receive the vaccine, for quite a number of IT professionals are perfectly contented with working from home and have no desire to commute again on highways whose congestion is now approaching pre-pandemic levels.  The strategy is more likely to work in retail, since employees must obviously be on site to sell products to customers.

Rochelle Walensky, the director of the CDC, has been pressured to explain why the vaccinated should pay the penalty of donning facemasks again in the counties label as “red” and “orange” (i.e., the counties with the greatest number of unvaccinated and of rising new cases of the virus, about two-thirds of all of the counties in the U.S.) when it is the recalcitrance of the unvaccinated that has put them at risk.  Indeed, the contrast between areas where the vaccinated are now a majority and those that are largely unvaccinated is a strange one.  In many parts of the Northeastern and mid-Atlantic states, the virus has been described as now being “almost rare” by medical analyst Dr. Jonathan Reiner.  But in much of the Midwest and the South, the virus has been accelerating.  Missouri, for instance, has experienced a five-fold increase of COVID cases in less than four weeks.

Walensky, however, has stood her ground.  The main objective is to limit transmission, and vaccinated people as well as unvaccinated are quite capable of transmitting the disease.  In any case, as I have repeatedly stressed in this journal, wearing a facemask is not exactly a killing sacrifice.  I have recently taken to resuming the wearing of facemasks myself while shopping or visiting public indoor facilities, even though I do not reside in one of the counties falling into the most susceptible categories; the effort is a trifling one and if there is a chance that my undertaking it reduces the amount of infection, why should I wish to shirk it?  How fond my compatriots have become at transforming a trifle as light as air into a crushing burden!

One of them in particular has reacted rather vehemently to such a policy. Thomas Connally, of Greenbelt, MD, is now facing federal charges after sending threatening E-mails to Dr. Anthony Fauci, including one vowing that Fauci and his family would be “dragged into the street, beaten to death, and set on fire.”  His ferocity is understandable:  Fauci has, over the course of his work during the pandemic, inflicted the recommendation that Connally, along with others, adhere a strip of cloth to cover his lips and nostrils when he goes out in public; how could any red-blooded American fail to exact condign revenge for this deadly insult?

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 196,620,360; # of deaths worldwide: 4,202,537; # of cases U.S.:                 35,469,204; # of deaths; U.S.: 628,058.  Our brief superiority to India in number of critical cases has died a swift death:  we are now heading the list again of nations with the greatest number of these.  The number of daily new cases across the globe has increased by 21% within the past week.

Hiking up Robertson Mountain and Stony Man – Possible therapeutics for COVID – The CDC changes recommendations about masks again – The investigation into the January 6^th riot – A failed press conference – Evening statistics

I was not looking forward to today’s hike with the Vigorous Hikers, since the weather was forecast to reach well over 90 degrees, and the hike begins with the ascent up Robertson Mountain, 2200 feet of elevation gain within three miles.  But I need not have worried.  We began the climb fairly early, when it was less hot, and the trail is well-shaded throughout.  The haze at the summit was less dense than what we saw last week, so it appears that the smoke from the wildfires is dispersing.  Afterwards we continued ascending until we reached the summit of Stony Man, where we had lunch.  At well over 3500 feet high, it was considerably cooler than the fire road where we began, and breezy as well – quite comfortable, in fact.  When we returned back via the Corbin Mountain and Indian Run Trails the air became much more sultry as we descended into the hollow.  However, one of the best swimming holes in Shenandoah National Park lies along the Nicholson Hollow Trail (our return route), about a mile from the parking area.  Even though its level was lower than usual, on account of the recent hot, dry days, it was still deep enough to reach over one’s head in some places and large enough to swim a few consecutive strokes without encountering any rocks.  The little waterfall at its end has a massage-like effect when you position yourself so that it pounds the shoulders.  So even though it was a strenuous hike (3800 feet of elevation gain total) at the hottest time of the year, it proved to be surprisingly pleasant. 

We spoke together about the virus, of course, and of the possibility of masks being mandated again.  A couple of the hikers mentioned that various therapeutics being developed in Israel are showing promise.  If these treatments prove feasible, then a combination of a significant portion of the population being vaccinated with therapeutics effective enough to cure those being hospitalized may bring down the virus to the level of a disease such as flu:  an endemic disease that will be an annual issue of concern chiefly during the winter months, but not serious enough to affect how businesses operate or to impinge on most people’s daily habits.  Even at this point the mortality rate is considerably less than it was in earlier stages.  Formerly it was well over 2%; now only 0.6%-0.8% of those who contract the disease result in fatalities. 

In the meantime, however, the CDC is recommending that everyone wear masks indoors, either vaccinated or not, indoors when in areas with “substantial” and “high” transmission of the virus.  These areas include nearly two-thirds of all U.S. counties.  Currently the vaccination rates are as follows:  49.2% of the total population, 57.6% of all Americans over 12 ,  60.1% of American adults, and 79.8% of American seniors are fully vaccinated.  56.9% of the total population, 66.6% of all Americans over 12,  69.1% of American adults, and 89.5% of American seniors have received at least one dose. 

The investigation of the January 6^th riot (or, as I prefer to call it, the January 6^th insurrection) began today.  The only two Republican members on the panel hearing the testimony are Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger.  Kevin McCarthy proved to be so unwilling to cooperate with Nancy Pelosi in the matter that she had little choice but to make her own selections for panel members.  Initially she offered Republicans an independent commission with an equal number of members from both parties. McCarthy refused. Pelosi thereupon invited McCarthy to choose five House GOP members for the special select committee.  He responded with choices of members who clearly had no interest whatever in delving into such matters:  one of them was Jim Jordan, a personal friend of Donald Trump. 

The first day consisted of testimony from four of the police officers who endured the brunt of the violence from the rioters:  Aquilino Gonell, a Capitol Police sergeant; Daniel Hodges, a Metropolitan Police Officer; Michael Fanone, another Metropolitan Police officer; and Harry Dunn, a Capitol Police Officer.  The testimony from each comprised a disheartening catalogue of wanton violence, racial invective, and blatant disregard for the basic principles on which the country was founded on the part of the rioters; and of callous indifference on the part of the GOP law-makers towards the men who risked their lives to protect them.  Fanone in particular had bitter words to say about the latter:  “My law enforcement career prepared me to cope with some of the aspects of this experience. Nothing has prepared me to address those elected members of our government who continue to deny the events of that day and in doing so, betray their oath of office.”  Dunn likened rioters to criminals carrying out illegal orders from a “hit man.”  He did not specify Trump by name, but everyone knew what he meant. 

The Republicans are not likely to come out well as a result of the inquiry no matter what they do, but their current attempts to divert attention from it only makes them look worse. 

A group of Trump’s most vocal allies, including Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene, Matt Gaetz, Paul Gosar, and Louie Gohmert – that is to say, some of the most disreputable people in the two chambers – tried to hold counterprogramming in the form of a press conference outside the Justice Department to demand a status report on imprisoned Capitol riot defendants.  It failed, however, in a ridiculous manner.  A group of counter-protesters continually heckled them until they abruptly terminated the event, fleeing the scene in short order and, in the confusion of their retreat, leaving their microphones behind.  Liz Cheney denounced the attempted distraction as a “disgrace,” and few are likely to disagree with her.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 195,923,263; # of deaths worldwide: 4,192,177; # of cases U.S.:35,343,829; # of deaths; U.S.: 627,379. 

Mask wearing becoming common again – Mandates may be impending – State governments scale back on COVID reporting – Slight increase in pace of vaccinations – Pressure from employers and government agencies for employees to submit to vaccination – France goes one step further – Evening statistics

I came to a resolve during the weekend to resume wearing masks again in indoor public places.  Clearly a number of people will not receive the vaccine no matter how often they are reminded that the latest hospitalizations consist almost exclusively of the unvaccinated.  The number is large enough not only to enable the delta variant to spread rapidly but also to provide a breeding ground for other variants, against which it is by no means certain that the vaccines will supply full protection.  When I went shopping for groceries today, it was obvious that many others have arrived independently at the same conclusion.  Nearly everyone in the store wore a mask, including all of the cashiers, even though the official policy is that masks are optional for the vaccinated.  The scene was a curious mixture of the old and the new:  the store featured a salad bar and a bar for hot foods, both of which would have been unthinkable last year at this time; but from the behavior of people almost uniformly wearing masks and taking care to ensure that they were at least six feet apart from one another, one could have imagined that we were in the days of the pandemic at its height. 

It would appear to be a matter of time before mask mandates are officially in place again.  Both Anthony Fauci and Jerome Adams (the former U.S. Surgeon General) are in agreement that the CDC is reconsidering its recent abeyance of measures such as mask-wearing, closures of certain businesses such as bars and restaurants, and teaching school students virtually.  COVID cases have increased 171% nationally and the death rate has increased 19% from last week due to the Delta variant.

The surge in new infections has undoubtedly caused some people to be discouraged.  The state governments of Nebraska, Iowa, and South Dakota have such tender hearts that they wish to spare their residents from the effects of depressing news – so they have scaled back reporting of COVID-19 statistics this month, thereby depriving the public of real-time information on outbreaks, cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in their communities.  Nebraska actually stopped reporting on the virus altogether for two weeks after Governor Pete Ricketts declared an end to the official virus emergency.  News reporters were forced to file public records requests or turn to national websites that track state data to learn about COVID statistics. Florida changed the frequency of its virus reporting in early June from daily to weekly, its officials arguing that such a change was appropriate in light of the fact that the number of cases was decreasing and the number of people being vaccinated was increasing.  Shortly afterwards, cases began to soar.  Earlier this week one-fifth of the country’s new coronavirus infections came from Florida.   As a result, Florida’s releases – typically done on Friday afternoons – have consequences on a national level for understanding the current summer surge, with no statewide COVID statistics coming out of the virus hotspot for six days a week.  The notion that ostriches bury their heads in the sand when they feel frightened or threatened turns out to be a myth; but among certain humans, unfortunately, such behavior is only too common.

A slightly hopeful note is being sounded in some areas, at least, where the spiraling rates of COVID infections and the sight of relatives succumbing to the virus are causing people to reconsider whether shunning the vaccines is such a good idea.  The country has averaged 699 first doses per 100,000 residents in the past seven days, whereas in the previous seven-day period the average was only 590 per 100,000. 

Then, too, certain agencies are putting pressure upon their employees to accept the vaccine.  The Department of Veterans Affairs has required Title 38 VA healthcare personnel (including physicians, dentists, and registered nurses, among others) to become fully vaccinated within eight weeks.  New York City municipal workers have a choice between getting vaccinated and undergoing weekly COVID testing.  In California, beginning on Aug. 9^th, state employees and health care workers must show proof of vaccination or get tested regularly.

France, which has only 44% of its population vaccinated, has decided to put more pressure on those who are shunning the vaccines.  A bill has been approved that will mandate “health passes” for anyone traveling within the country or attending restaurants and other public places.  These passes will be used as proof that the owner is either vaccinated, has acquired immunity as a result of recent recovery from the virus, or has shown a negative result for a recent COVID test.  Anyone working in health care must get vaccinated by September 15^th; those who fail to do so shall be suspended. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 195,318,875; # of deaths worldwide: 4,182,144; # of cases U.S.:                 35,275,530; # of deaths; U.S.: 626,998.  We no longer lead the world in the number of critical cases; India now surpasses us and Brazil is catching up as well.  In all probability the numbers in those two countries are considerably greater than the figures officially given.  Despite the recent surge in cases, we now rank 16^th on the list of nations rated by virus infections rates (ours is now about 10.6%). 

Hiking from Keys Gap again – Planning for CHC’s first bus hike – Relatively high vaccination rates in the DC metro area – Heresy concerning the Olympic games – Evening statistics

Another hike today from Keys Gap with AD and others, this time going south instead of north to a viewpoint close to the Blackburn Center.  It was similar in length and elevation gain to the one we took yesterday, but it felt more challenging on account of the heat.  This summer has not been as extreme as the one last year, which had 19 days in succession of temperatures over 90 degrees, but July up to this point has had numerous clusters of very hot days, albeit interspersed with a few days that were less sultry.  The views, as before, were shadowed with haze as a result of the wildfires.  Parts of the trail were overgrown, due to the decline in the mountain ashes, thereby allowing various grasses and shrubs to grow more profusely and encroach more obviously on trails generally. 

Hiking also was very much on my mind this evening, when I attended a virtual meeting with the CHC Board to finalize plans for the first bus hike.  RW and AT, who will be leading this hike, also participated, to ensure that the answers to any questions they might have could be settled in advance.  For example, what is the rule regarding masks?  (Masks are mandated on the bus; this is not only the policy of the bus company but is a regulation for any vehicle used for interstate commerce.  They will not be used on the hike itself.)  Will leaders provide refreshments, as they did before?  (We hope to set up this feature eventually, but for the moment we want the process for resuming the bus hikes to be as streamlined as possible.  Leaders will not provide refreshments for the first few hikes; after that, the question as to whether it is feasible will be discussed by the Board again.  Leaders may provide bottled water to be on hand for any hikers who may run out of water on their own.)  Can people bring their own food for snacking after the hike?  (Yes, provided that they do not eat or drink on the bus.)  Will leaders be expected to verify whether people boarding the bus are vaccinated?  (They are not.  I was fairly adamant during the previous Board meeting in my stance that hike leaders should not be burdened with this additional administrative task.  I must add that I did not receive much resistance on this point.)  And so on.  There were a good many issues concerning the mechanisms for Meetup, which CHC uses as the vehicle for hikers to sign up for their hikes.  It was reassuring to see that the Board had worked out matters well and that all questions could be answered readily.  There are a few details that we will have to verify with the bus company, but in general it appears that the preparations for the first group hike of the season are nearly complete. 

It seems strange to make plans of this nature when we are still technically undergoing a pandemic.  One hopes that the delta variant, and any other new variants for that matter, does not reverse the healing trend too extensively.  There is a hopeful note, as far as this area is concerned at any rate; the DC metro area generally is well above the national average in its rate of vaccination.  DC, Maryland, and Virginia have 64.5%, 70.4%, and 64.8% of their respective adult populations fully vaccinated.  Maryland in particular has done very well:  72.9% of Maryland adults and 90% of Maryland seniors have received at least one dose. 

No doubt readers of a certain mindset will also find it strange that I devote so much space to the concerns and activities of a single hiking club while saying nothing about the Olympic games, the opening ceremonies of which were held four days ago.  That is because, as might be inferred from previous entries on the subject, my attitude towards games funded by mega-businesses and especially towards those held at an international level is similar to George Orwell’s, as expressed in his essay “The Sporting Spirit”:  “sport is an unfailing cause of ill-will” and “international sporting contests lead to orgies of hatred.”  “On the village green,” he continues, “where you pick up sides and no feeling of local patriotism is involved, it is possible to play simply for the fun and exercise: but as soon as the question of prestige arises, as soon as you feel that you and some larger unit will be disgraced if you lose, the most savage combative instincts are aroused. . . . Serious sport has nothing to do with fair play. It is bound up with hatred, jealousy, boastfulness, disregard of all rules and sadistic pleasure in witnessing violence: in other words it is war minus the shooting.”  My own experience bears this out.  When I see students at a junior high school or a high school playing an informal game of football or baseball, I’m delighted that young people are getting the opportunity for exercising out of doors; when I see universities investing millions of dollars in elaborate stadiums and luring students to teams by means of numerous privileges, regardless of their academic ability, I feel an emotion akin to outrage.  In the first case it is perfectly possible for the participants on the opposite teams to party together afterwards; whereas members of an audience cheering the college team of their choice profess an unrelenting hatred of the faction that cheers the other team, and there is every reason to believe that they are thoroughly sincere in their expressions of intense malice and ill-nature.  Well, well, woe be to the man who blasphemes against his national gods!

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 194,796,404; # of deaths worldwide: 4,174,644; # of cases U.S.: 35,199,465; # of deaths; U.S.: 626,762.

On the Loudoun Heights Trail – No way to predict when COVID will become merely endemic – Backlash against Tennessee’s recall of vaccination outreach – Phil Valentine – Possible revival of mask mandates – Evening statistics

Today I went with AD and others on a hike starting from Keys Gap to the Loudoun Heights Trail down to Split Rock and back, about 12 miles and 1800 feet of elevation gain.  This segment of the AT is quite rocky in spots, but it is well-maintained, like most of the trail; and after the experience of attempting to grope along the Big Savage Hiking Trail a couple of days ago, it was such a relief to be walking on a well-defined path without any hesitation about whether or not I was going in the right direction.  As always, the view of Harpers Ferry from Split Rock was splendid, with even more variety than usual provided by the gaily-colored rafts floating in the confluence of the Shenandoah and Potomac Rivers. 

After the hike several of us discussed plans of the Wanderbirds about the circumstances in which proof of vaccination from participants in club hikes should be required.  The discussion was inconclusive on this matter, but at one point I asked EB, who is an epidemiologist, whether experts had any idea as to when COVID would cease to be classified as a pandemic and assume the status of an endemic disease such as flu or diphtheria.  Sadly, the answer was that there are still too many unknown factors to make any firm estimate.  The disease is raging more or less unchecked in many corners of the world, which means that new variants are continually emerging, and the efficacy of the vaccines against such variants is uncertain.  The increased communicability of the newer variants, such as the Delta variant, means that at this point in order to attain so-called herd immunity we would need about 85% of the population vaccinated instead of the previously recommended 70%.  That simply is not going to happen.  The anti-vaccine movement is too firmly entrenched.  At this stage, through extensive outreach from the Biden administration and through some of the state governments, we have just managed to scrape up a total of 60% of adults fully vaccinated, but that total is not likely to increase significantly in the future. 

As an example, the state of Tennessee may be cited.  It has already been related how the state’s Department of Health fired Michelle Fiscus, its top vaccination official, and abruptly halted its vaccination outreach to minors.  Dr. Lisa Piercey, the state’s Health Commissioner, would not discuss Fiscus’s ousting, but she said yesterday that there may be “fringe and nuanced” situations in which a COVID vaccine may need to be given to a minor without parental permission.  This statement contradicts a claim from Republican lawmakers, who said the health commissioner had previously agreed to stop such a practice.  As the tension mounted, Dr. Piercey perceived that the state was receiving a great deal of negative publicity on account of its high-handed maneuvering, and she evidently decided to rid her eyes of this abomination – so she promptly took a flight to vacation in Greece.

One Tennessee resident at least is belatedly regretting his decision not to receive the vaccine.  Phil Valentine, a conservative radio show host, is currently hospitalized in a critical care unit as a result of pneumonia brought on by the virus.  He needs breathing assistance, although he is not as yet on a ventilator.  His family issued a statement saying that he is now ruing his refusal to get the vaccine and that he intends to advocate the vaccine vigorously when he recovers and is able to get back on the air. 

The delta variant of the coronavirus now accounts for more than 83% of all COVID-19 infections in the country. The vaccines protect people at a high rate against serious illness or death from the variant; but they are not 100% effective and as community spread increases, so do the number of vaccinated Americans who test positive and transmit the virus to others.  The Biden administration is currently discussing with the CDC as to whether or not mask mandates should be re-instated as infections continue to rise.  While it is true that the CDC says that vaccinated persons can resume normal activities without wearing a mask or social distancing, unvaccinated Americans are also dropping their masks in the absence of mask mandates.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 194,362,619; # of deaths worldwide: 4,167,668; # of cases U.S.: 35,182,105; # of deaths; U.S.: 626,700.

Adventures in West Virginia and western Maryland – Frostburg, its historic district and its college – Governor Ivey’s call for Alabamians to get vaccinated – Resistance to the vaccines – A new challenge to Roe vs. Wade – Evening statistics

I went on a brief trip to hike in West Virginia and in western Maryland, but the hikes were a disappointment.

On Wednesday (7/21) I went to Spruce Knob.  The hike around the knob itself is only a ½-mile circuit, paved, and quite flat.  The path was placed there only because the knob is the highest point in the state.  There are several views from this path, as well as from a watchtower that rises above the tallest trees.  But these were all obscured and dimmed by the smoke from the wildfires in the Western states, which covered everything in sight with a greyish pall.

However, I wasn’t expecting much from this hike.  I was anticipating something more rewarding from another hike that starts from the Spruce Knob parking area, a loop that goes to Seneca Rocks and back.  It turned out to be an obstacle course:  the first trail was full of boulder fields, the second (an old logging road) had numerous and extensive mud puddles strewn with slippery rocks, and a third was so overgrown that grasses and overhanging branches were continually blocking the way.  In the end I got so frustrated that I cut off about 2 miles from the hike; even so, it was 14½ miles and it felt as if it were much, much longer.  It wasn’t as if I was seeing very much in return for all of this exertion.  There are a few views of the mountains from the Horton Trail (the one that has so much overgrowth); but, as with the hike around the knob, they were all blurred by the haze from the wildfire smoke.  The vegetation is a bit unusual for the area, since it is higher than much of the other parts of West Virginia and Maryland.  It consists mainly of spruce forest and it is probably more typical of parts of Canada than the mid-Atlantic states.  But outside of that, there was little to remark upon.  Since the hike began at Spruce Knob, it naturally went down for much of the first half of the hike.  Upon the return, there was 1700 feet of elevation gain to recover, much of which was in the first mile of the ascent.  All in all, the hike was a lot of trouble for something that didn’t amount to very much.

That evening I checked into a motel at which I had booked reservations in advance.  Its exterior was unprepossessing, and I had a brief moment of dread as to whether I would experience a repetition of the memorably repellent motel at Wind Gap.  But my fears were groundless.  I checked in without difficulty.  There were no odd characters lounging about in front.  The room was spacious, clean, and comfortable.  It even had kitchen facilities, which meant that I could make breakfast for myself and thereby get an early start in the morning.  Curiously, the proprietor insisted on showing the room to me first to see if it met my approval – the first time that has ever happened to me at any hotel I’ve checked into. 

The following day I explored the Big Savage Hiking Trail.  This was the main object of the trip, for I was supposed to use a measuring wheel for a revision of a description of this trail in a book of hikes in western Maryland.  The measuring wheel slowed me down considerably, of course, but I had anticipated as much.  What I did not anticipate was the level of difficulty in adhering to the trail.  It is greatly overgrown throughout and at times the only indicator of where to go forward was a blaze on a tree some yards distant.  The trail was quite well-blazed in the beginning; even so, there were many places where I went astray and had to retrace my steps.  All went reasonably well until I crossed under a power line about 2¾ miles into the hike.  On the other side of the power line, the undergrowth became much denser and the blazes less regularly spaced.  And finally, at one point, I could go no further – there were no blazes to be seen and no path was at all discernible.  It was simply a sea of ferns and grasses interspersed with rocks.  Even finding the blaze that I had last left behind me was quite a struggle.  It was no longer necessary to use the measuring wheel going back, and thus my progress on the return was much more rapid.  But I spent nearly 7 hours to complete a round trip of less than 9 miles.

The description on the signboard at the trailhead begins with the phrase “This popular hike  . . .” but I did not see a single other person on the trail and no one else was parked in the parking area.  It could have been quite a pleasant hike if the trail were in better condition.  It is fairly rugged, with rock piles in several areas and numerous small ups and downs, but the forest area is scenic, and there are tantalizing gleams of a view of the valley below now and then.  As it is, I doubt whether it is manageable at all without a GPS.

When I returned I went to the college town of Frostburg, which was a couple of miles from the motel at which I was staying.  It is a pleasing place, with a few blocks of historic district.  The most striking features are St. Michael’s church and the Gunter Hotel.  St. Michael’s church is much more elaborate and imposing than the Episcopal church a few blocks away.  It was built in the latter part of the 19^th century, and its congregation consisted chiefly of Irish Catholics who had emigrated to the area to work in the coal mining industry.  The Gunter Hotel is one of those splendid turn-of-the-century hotels that is filled with original artwork to decorate its halls, including some stained-glass windows, and a grand central staircase along which one can walk from one floor to the next with ease – unlike the system in modern hotels, which places the staircases in forlorn darkened corners of the building to reinforce the impression that walking up and down stairs instead of taking the elevator is rather an indecent and indelicate affair.

The college campus occupies a beautiful setting with vistas of mountain ranges to the south, but it is not beautiful in itself.  It has benches scattered here and there for sitting out of doors, but no parklike enclosures, and the architecture of the majority of the buildings is serviceable rather than stylish, although not especially uncomely.  To my surprise, there was scarcely a single person to be seen.  It was mid-summer, to be sure, and most of the classes are in abeyance, but I would have assumed that at least some courses would be offered during the summer, and in any case the majority of the students reside close to the campus.  But for whatever the reason, going through the campus was like going through a ghost town.

So much for my doings during this three-day interval; what of national developments at large?

Arkansas used to be the state with the smallest percentage of fully vaccinated residents, but now that sorry title has descended to Alabama, with only 33.9% of all residents having received the vaccines.  Governor Kay Ivey has made a plea for the unvaccinated to take the vaccines – unlike the majority of Republican leaders, who either have refrained from doing so or have actively encouraged their followers to decline them.  Average daily cases in Alabama are nearly double what they were a week ago, and more than four times higher than they were two weeks ago.

It is unlikely that Governor Ivey’s exhortations will have much effect.  According to a recent poll among the unvaccinated, 45% say that they definitely will not take the vaccine and an additional 35% probably will not.  It is true that this poll was conducted before Republican leaders such as Ivey have decided to urge followers to abandon their hostility towards the vaccine.  But the main reason for their opposition seems to be a determination to deny Biden any credit for combatting the pandemic, since Biden has displaced their beloved idol Donald Trump.  Trump may be officially out of power, but his malign influence is as potent as ever, like the sting of a dead wasp.

And Alabama’s neighbor, Mississippi, is also in the news.  It has imposed a ban on all abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy in an attempt to challenge the Roe vs. Wade decision.  The case is expected to reach the Supreme Court during the autumn.  A similar attempt was made by Louisiana a year ago, which was blocked by a bare 5-4 majority, with Chief Justice John Roberts casting the deciding vote alongside the court’s four liberal justices.  But the composition of the Court has changed since that time.  Now that Supreme Court consists of six conservative judges and three liberal ones, and it seems unlikely that other conservative judges will follow Judge Roberts’ example. 

Statistics for July 21^st as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 192,772,397; # of deaths worldwide: 4,141,705; # of cases U.S.: 35,135,098; # of deaths; U.S.: 625,790.

Statistics for July 22^nd as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 193,351,571; # of deaths worldwide: 4,150,569; # of cases U.S.: 35,204,521; # of deaths; U.S.: 626,157.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 193,884,439; # of deaths worldwide: 4,157,953; # of cases U.S.: 35,279,835; # of deaths; U.S.: 626,622.  Over the past three days we have had more than 50,000 new cases (today the case count was well over 60,000) and several hundred deaths.  The fourth wave is accelerating.

Hiking in Shenandoah National Park – Haze from the wildfires nearly 3000 miles away – Astonishing behavior of commentators from Fox News – Indiana University permitted to protect itself – Undercounting of deaths in India – The virus interrupts festivities in Muslim countries – Evening statistics

I went with the Vigorous Hikers on a there-and-back along the Appalachian Trail between Thornton Gap and the overlook at Little Stony Man.  Normally this hike features many excellent viewpoints at Mary’s Rock, the Pinnacle, Jewel Hollow, the Pinnacles picnic area, and Little Stony Man itself.  But the views were very disappointing today.  It is normally rather hazy during the summer (with last year being a brilliant exception, on account of the lower industrial and automotive emissions) but today the haze went well beyond the usual loss of clarity.  When I remarked on this, EC said that the smoke from the wildfires in the West have reached the area and have completely enveloped the Shenandoah Valley.

On the other hand, there was an abundance of lilies, both Turk’s-cap and Canada lilies, and numerous butterflies.  The tiger swallowtails were particularly noticeable at the Byrd’s Nest shelter and the ascent on either side of it.  The temperatures were much less hot along the ridgeline than they were on the lower elevations, and at Little Stony Man, where we had lunch while seated upon the rock outcroppings, a breeze blew so steadily that it became pleasantly cool. 

On the return I went together with HL, who gave a rather humorous account about an acquaintance of his who on occasion goes barefoot, not only upon turf and sand, but on trails like the one we covered today, with its plethora of exposed rock and scree.  She spoke to him about the “enlightenment” she receives from being “closer to earth”; we lost no time in agreeing that we prefer to use hiking boots and to receive both less enlightenment and less pain.

There has been a rare occurrence that is surely worthy of national attention, if not stunned disbelief:  namely, that various Fox News commentators have publicly admitted that two and two is four.  Sean Hannity, who earlier claimed that COVID was no more harmful than flu and that Democrats were using it to discredit Donald Trump, is now urging viewers to get vaccinated.  He is not the only one among the Fox staff to do a complete volte-face:  “Fox & Friends” co-host Brian Kilmeade compared skipping the Covid-19 vaccine to cliff diving, saying on Monday that people who don’t survive the disease made the “choice” to die; while co-host Steve Doocy addressed those who have resisted getting the vaccine as follows: “If you have the chance, get the shot. It will save your life.”  Perhaps they are belatedly realizing that the main casualties of the new wave of the virus are Republicans and Trump supporters, from whom the non-vaccinated are overwhelmingly recruited; so that at this rate the Democrats will be able to prevail in the 2022 elections by sheer attrition.

Along these lines, Indiana University has set up a vaccine requirement for students and employees alike; and, although a lawsuit predictably erupted when this requirement was announced, a federal judge has refused to uphold it and has ruled that the university injunction may stay in place.  The number of students, faculty, and staff who access the campus amounts to 100,000, so the concern of the university management is understandable.  As Judge Damon Leichty observed, no one has a constitutional right to a college education and students who do not wish to get vaccinated can simply leave.  It is not at all uncommon for colleges to require vaccinations from its student body:  Indiana requires all public university students to receive vaccinations for diphtheria, tetanus, measles, mumps, rubella, and meningococcal disease.

I have said little of other countries during the past few weeks, but the progress of the pandemic in India continues to ravage the country.  Officially the death toll is nearly 420,000.  But a report published by Arvind Subramanian, the Indian government’s former chief economic adviser, and two other researchers at the Center for Global Development and Harvard University, said that the excess deaths in India are in the range of 3-to-4.7 million between January 2020 and June 2021.  In other words, the death toll could be under-estimated by as much as a factor of 10.  The Partition of the British-ruled Indian subcontinent into independent India and Pakistan in 1947 has up to this point been considered the most deadly tragedy in Indian history, since it led to the killing of up to 1 million people as gangs of Hindus and Muslims slaughtered each other.  It now appears, however, that the pandemic has snatched these undesirable laurels from this event, being at least 3-4 times as costly in human life.

Today is Eid al-Adha, the last day of the hajj.  As was the case last year, the hajj has been heavily scaled back, with only 60,000 pilgrims allowed to participate (the average yearly number in normal times is about 2½ million).  The governments in various Muslim nations have taken measures to restrict the usual celebrations.  In Indonesia, Vice President Ma’ruf Amin, who is also an influential Islamic cleric, appealed to people to perform holiday prayers at home with their families, following a new wave of the virus that began in May.  In Malaysia, measures have been tightened after a sharp spike in infections despite a national lockdown since June 1^st.  People are banned from travelling back to their hometowns or crossing districts to celebrate. House visits and customary trips to graveyards are also banned.  Iran on Monday imposed a week-long lockdown on the capital, Tehran, and the surrounding region. The lockdown began today.  India’s Muslim scholars have been urging people to exercise restraint and adhere to health protocols. Some states have restricted large gatherings and are asking people to observe the holiday at home.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 192,205,804; # of deaths worldwide: 4,124,191; # of cases U.S.: 35,077,098; # of deaths; U.S.: 625,244.

Uproar in Fairfax County – Canada announces re-opening of borders – Travel difficulties in the West – Burnout among health care workers – Evening statistics

The Fairfax County school system has been featured in national headlines, for somewhat unfortunate reasons.  Michelle Leete, the Vice President of Training for the Virginia Parent Teacher Association and Vice President of Communications for the Fairfax County PTA, responded to parents who opposed the teaching of critical race theory with the following remarks:  “Let’s deny this off-key band of people that are anti-education, anti-teacher, anti-equity, anti-history, anti-racial reckoning, anti-opportunities, anti-help people, anti-diversity, anti-platform, anti-science, anti-change agent, anti-social justice, anti-health care, anti-worker, anti-LGBTQ+, anti-children, anti-health care, anti-worker, anti-environment, anti-admissions policy change, anti-inclusion, anti-live-and-let-live people. Let them die.”  Parents of students attending Fairfax County schools, being a trifle disconcerted at hearing death threats from one of the officials of their children’s educational system, demanded and eventually obtained her resignation.  Ms. Leete did make an attempt to back-pedal when it became apparent that her speech (which was delivered on video, with a break for applause after the “Let them die” clause) had miscarried, but her efforts were not successful.  She explained that she did not wish death for the opponents of critical race theory; she merely wished for the death of the ideals that inspired such opposition.  In this manner, the meaning of her original remarks was made clear to those who had not grasped it at first.

Canada has announced that vaccinated Americans will be able to cross the border without being quarantined.  The new policy begins on August 9^th.  Vaccinated visitors from other nations will be able to travel to the country on September 8^th.  Vaccinated Canadians are already able to visit the U.S. via air, but travel across the land border is still barred. 

Travel, however, is problematic in many areas, for reasons other than COVID.  At Denver, a major hub in the western part of the nation, hundreds of flights have been delayed by the smoke and haze caused by wildfires, which has limited visibility.  Over three hundred have been postponed and eight have been canceled altogether.  Currently there are 80 wildfires burning in 13 states, having already consumed over 1 million acres. 

 From Erik Frederick, the chief administrative officer of Mercy Hospital Springfield, Missouri:  “You hear ‘post-pandemic’ a lot.  We’re clearly not post-pandemic. New York threw a ticker-tape parade for its health-care heroes, and ours are knee-deep in COVID.”  Many health-care workers are, to use a rather inelegant term, fed up.  Their attitude last year was that combatting the ravages of a potentially fatal disease for which there was no cure and that struck entirely at random was their responsibility, serving their community.  Now they have little desire to be “putting themselves in harm’s way for people who’ve chosen not to protect themselves,” to use the words of Steve Edwards, president and CEO of CoxHealth.  Nearly all of the COVID patients in the hospitals are unvaccinated.  Missouri contains a few counties that have some of the lowest rates in the country:  Greene County, where Mercy and CoxHealth are located, has a vaccination rate of under 40%; in some neighboring counties the rate is as low as 20%. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 191,675,328; # of deaths worldwide: 4,112,279; # of cases U.S.: 35,009,500; # of deaths; U.S.: 624,943.

Hike leader certification – Biden castigates Facebook – State governments vs. vaccines – Masks recommended in Las Vegas – Canada to re-open borders – Evening statistics

I am now an officially certified hike leader.

As the journal entries indicate, I’ve been leading hikes for years.  But I’ve never had any formal training.  The knowledge that I picked up about leading hikes and about behaving on the trails generally has been learned on the job, so to speak. 

However, the Potomac Appalachian Trail Club (PATC) is currently redesigning its hike leader training.  I am well-acquainted with several people on the group that designed the revised course, and as a result I, along with several others whom they know from hiking alongside them, was invited to a test run of the course materials.  A previous test run had been performed this past Wednesday, via Zoom; for this test run, all of the participants met in the same room, although a couple of the course designers had logged in via Zoom to evaluate how well the test run went.

It turned out to be quite worthwhile.  No matter how often one has led hikes, there is always something to be learned from other experienced hike leaders; and on this occasion I picked up several techniques that I either have not often used in the past or have not used at all, but which I will incorporate into any hikes I lead in future.  For example, I always scout my hikes, but I generally have not made note of potential bailout points for hikers who may be undergoing difficulties during the hike itself; now I will do so whenever I scout a hike.  Again, I occasionally have made note of the telephone numbers for contacting land management personnel (park rangers, local police, etc.) while leading a hike but not consistently, and it is a practice that needs to be done for every hike that I lead, even for seemingly trouble-free ones such as the Lake Fairfax loop.  The course is two hours long, but it packs a good deal within a relatively small compass. 

The test run established, among other things, that while the course can be administered both via Zoom and by the traditional method of teachers and students assembled in a single room, a combination of the two, with some students live and some students logging in remotely, is not feasible.  The course designers who were logging in were able, for the most part, to follow our discussions; but it would have been a matter of some difficulty for them to participate in them directly.  This conclusion indeed jibes with the experiences of my teacher friend RK when she was teaching online earlier as a result of the pandemic restrictions, with some students assembled in a classroom and others online; it proved to be a logistical nightmare.  Each method of course has its advantages.  Discussions flow more freely when every participant is in the same room.  On the other hand, the PATC has potential leaders ranging from southern Pennsylvania to Charlottesville, and it may not always be possible to have the participants travel to their headquarters in Vienna, VA; in which case, a course conducted by Zoom is much more convenient. 

After the course is officially approved, trainees will be required to lead two hikes under supervision of the trainers; but because the participants this morning had played a role in testing it out and because each of us has already led hikes under the observation of several of the course designers, the requirement was waived for us; thus, as a result of participating in the class this morning, my status as PATC-trained hike leader has been certified.

The apartment in which we met, incidentally, was one in which visitors had to be admitted via a guard at the front desk or, if the guard is absent, calling the host and asking him to come down to admit them.  In this case the front desk was empty and we had to call our host to admit us.  One of the visitors asked whether facemasks were necessary in the building but he said that it was not for those who are vaccinated.  It is one of the many indicators of how uncertain the wearing of masks can be, at any rate in our area.  For the most part the mask requirement is waived for those who are vaccinated, but one never can tell in advance.  There may always be the odd public building or private apartment that requires one over and above any recommendations that the city or county might impose.  The inference is clear:  never leave home without taking a facemask to have on hand in case it is needed.

There is relatively little going on nationally, although Joe Biden has lashed out against Facebook for allowing misinformation about the vaccines to hinder the U.S. in reaching its goal of more than 70% of the population getting its first dose by July 4^th.  His exasperation against the anti-vaxxers, as they are called, is understandable.  Cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. have increased by 70% over the previous week and deaths by up 26%.  But it seems unfair to point to Facebook as the source of the problem.  About 85% of Facebook users are vaccinated.  Moreover, Facebook has explicit rules against making false claims about COVID-19 and the vaccines for it. 

In Biden’s place, I would have no hesitation in calling out the state governments that have hampered national inoculation efforts.  I have already noted how Tennessee boasts a “Department of Health” that is analogous to the “Ministry of Love” in George Orwell’s 1984.  Just as the latter belies its name by administering fearsome tortures to any perceived enemies of the state, Tennessee’s Department of Health is the most resolute of all state governments in its goal of distributing as few vaccinations as possible.  But it is not alone; states such as Missouri and South Carolina also have numerous government officials seemingly dedicated to keeping the vaccination rate as low and the rate of COVID infection as high as they possibly can.

Other localities are showing a somewhat greater sense of reality.  Las Vegas has followed Los Angeles’ lead in recommending masks indoors for the vaccinated and unvaccinated.  Nevada as a whole has not fared especially badly – it ranks 19^th among the states for its infection rate and 22^nd for its mortality rate – but Clark County, in which Las Vegas is located, has seen a steadily increasing COVID test positivity rate (it is currently about 12%) and the state as a whole has undergone a surge in infections, with hospitalizations now numbering over 700 a day – a substantial amount for a state whose entire population is only a little over 3 million.

Canada is set to re-open borders in mid-August, although a firm date has not been set.  At this point 80% of Canadians eligible for the vaccine have taken their first dose and 50% are fully vaccinated.  Some restrictions have already been eased.  Fully vaccinated Canadians or permanent legal residents may return to Canada without quarantining, although they must prove a negative COVID-19 test before returning and another once they get back.  There is a considerable economic incentive for re-opening the borders:  Canada had about 22 million foreign visitors in 2019, of whom about 15 million of them came from the United States.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 190,744,059; # of deaths worldwide: 4,098,347; # of cases U.S.: 34,953,125; # of deaths; U.S.: 624,713.

COVID’s fourth wave – Mask mandates begin to re-appear – Evening statistics

We have entered our fourth wave of the pandemic, according to the CDC.  Cases of the virus have doubled in the past two weeks.  The experience of the U.K., which has had a similar rate of vaccination, suggests that while infection rates will rise, hospitalizations and deaths will be considerably lower than those of the previous waves, since the vaccines have proven to be quite effective in containing the disease among the relatively small number who contract it even after the vaccines have been administered.  But the wave will target the unvaccinated, including children, and if infection rates are high enough, also the most vulnerable of the vaccinated – the elderly and the immunocompromised.

What is maddening about this wave is that it was entirely preventable.  Had vaccinations been administered at the rate they were being taken in April, probably more than 80% of adults would have been vaccinated by now.  The issue is not lack of vaccines – we have an amount on hand sufficient to vaccinate nearly everyone at this point – but the refusal of people to take them.  I do not know how Trump’s partisans are able to claim that the credit for introducing vaccines to the U.S. belongs to Trump and all the while strive their utmost to dissuade people from taking the vaccines; but the fact remains that they do, with an obsessiveness that borders on insanity.  Well over 99% of the hospitalizations consist of the unvaccinated.  Dr. Luis Ostrosky, chief of infectious diseases at UTHealth and an infectious disease specialist at Memorial Hermann-Texas Medical Center in Houston, said that “We’re going to be living in two pandemic worlds, the world that’s vaccinated and the world that’s unvaccinated.”  Ostrosky added that all of his own COVID patients are unvaccinated and all of them regret not having taking the shots when they had the opportunity.  But there is little use in shutting the barn door once the horse has bolted.

There are some alleviations to the current wave of infections.  Nearly 80% of seniors have been fully vaccinated, and nearly 90% have received at least one dose.  The most vulnerable segment of the population is thus well-protected.  People who have caught COVID and who have since recovered are also likely to be at low risk for at least a year after their recovery.  In the U.S. this number is between 29 and 30 million:  close to 9% of the population.  But about 35% of all people over 12 years of age remain unvaccinated.  When children under the age of 12 are factored in, the figure is nearly 45%. 

Los Angeles County will be re-implementing a mask mandate for indoor public spaces.  As the fourth wave gains in intensity, other counties are likely to follow suit in the coming months as the summer ends.  The coronavirus is a seasonal virus, which means, just as with the flu, people are more vulnerable to it in the fall and winter.  For my own part, I intend to wear a facemask for indoor public areas as the colder weather sets in.  The vaccines, while effective, are not perfect, and in addition it may be possible for me to infect others.  In any case, the facemasks have shown themselves to be effective in screening out other airborne diseases besides COVID, such as influenza and streptococcus.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 190,257,164; # of deaths worldwide: 4,091,251; # of cases U.S.: 34,925,998; # of deaths; U.S.: 624,600.

The pandemic and overdoses – The firing of Michelle Fiscus – Increase in new cases – Evening statistics

I speculated some months ago that the amount of suicides, particularly by means of overdoses, would probably increase as a result of the pandemic; and I regret to say that this prediction was accurate.  The number of overdoses in 2020 was about 93,000, a 29% increase over the amount of overdoses in 2019.  The pandemic not only isolated those struggling with drug addiction, but made treatment more difficult ot obtain on account of the resources being diverted to combat the ravages of COVID.  Ironically, the fact that suspensions of evictions and extended unemployment benefits leaving addicts with more money than usual was also a factor; with the increased amount of funds on hand, they stocked up on the drug supply.

Michelle Fiscus, Tennessee’s top immunization official, was fired this week after distributing a memo that said some teenagers could be eligible for the COVID-19 vaccine without their parents’ consent.  Tennessee’s State Supreme Court made a ruling, 37 years earlier, that allows health care providers to treat minors age 14 and above without parental consent if the providers decide those teenagers are mature enough.  But the state’s Department of Health not only has fired Fiscus for reaching out to minors, but has halted all advertising about vaccines (not only those for COVID)  aimed at adolescents, had stopped all vaccine events on school properties, and plans to exclude teenagers from receiving the postcards that adults receive to remind them to get their second doses of the vaccine.  The so-called Department of Health seems determined to ensure that the state’s vaccination rate will be as low as possible.  If that is their goal, they have certainly succeeded.  At this point only 37.5% of its adults are fully vaccinated, making it one of the states with the lowest vaccination rates in the country. 

In this connection it may be mentioned that as the Delta variant continues to circulate, our infection rates are going up again.  Both yesterday and today witnessed more than 30,000 new cases apiece and over 300 deaths.

Yesterday’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 189,131,853; # of deaths worldwide: 4,073,941; # of cases U.S.: 34,846,846; # of deaths; U.S.: 623,806.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 189,692,150; # of deaths worldwide: 4,082,495; # of cases U.S.: 34,882,725; # of deaths; U.S.: 624,184.

Hiking to Rapidan Camp and Big Meadow Lodge – A chance encounter – Evening statistics

Yesterday I was fairly inactive, other than dealing with details connected with my mother’s transfer from an independent-living apartment to an assisted-living one.  Today, however, I went out with the Vigorous Hikers, starting from Syria, VA to Rapidan Camp and from there to the Big Meadows Lodge; then after lunch, we descended via Dark Hollows Falls and the Rose River fire road back to the parking area.  I was not looking forward to this hike when I arose this morning, for today was supposed to be the hottest of the entire week, and humid as well.  But it turned out much better than I expected.  The temperatures were slightly less warm in the elevations we were frequenting and since most of the ascent occurred in the morning, when the temperatures were lower, the climbs were far less uncomfortable than I anticipated.  In the Big Meadows area, which is about 3500 feet high, breezes were continually blowing, moderating the heat and dissipating the humidity.  This hike is traditionally the one in which the Vigorous Hikers pauses for a lunch longer than usual, dining at the lodge rather than eating pre-packaged lunches on the hike route itself.   We spent over 90 minutes there, despite the efficiency of the service, being inclined to linger over our meal and converse at leisure.  The latter part of the hike is mainly descent; by that time the temperatures grew warmer and somewhat more oppressive as we came down to lower elevations.  However, we took advantage of a swimming hole close to the parking area at the end of the hike.  The water was quite cool, as mountain streams and pools tend to be, but not frigid, and it was deep enough to submerge oneself entirely, and even to swim a few strokes consecutively.  Wineberries and, to a lesser extent, blackberries grew in abundance close to the trailhead and many of them were fully ripe, providing an excellent dessert for the lunch we had enjoyed earlier. 

I met a young father with his two young sons upon my return.  We chatted a little, he showing me where blackberries grew in the greatest profusion.  He was curious about my activities, and when I mentioned that I was part of a group that hiked for 18 miles with 3000 feet of elevation gain his eyes widened in surprise.  “In one day?” he asked.  He was by no means unfit himself, but an exertion of that kind seemed unusually arduous to him, or at the very least eccentric.  I suppose it is by many standards.  It is perhaps imprudent at my age to perform such undertakings.  I daresay as I grow older I will restrict myself according to the example set by GP, who confines himself to undertaking day-hikes of no more than 12 miles or so now that he has reached the age of 90.

Yesterday’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 188,030,820; # of deaths worldwide: 4,055,269; # of cases U.S.: 34,761,520; # of deaths; U.S.: 623,011.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 188,571,052; # of deaths worldwide: 4,065,184; # of cases U.S.: 34,804,976; # of deaths; U.S.: 623,396.  More than one half-million new cases occurred globally today, of which well over 25,000 originated in the U.S.; we are far from seeing the end of the pandemic yet.

Decreasing frequency of diary entries – The two nations of the healthy and the unhealthy – The Capitol fencing torn down – Hiking at Manassas Gap – The Wanderbirds picnic – Evening statistics

My entries have become less frequent of late as the pandemic wanes.  It is inevitable:  during the earlier phases there were new restrictions, new conditions in daily living that required adjustment on a personal level, new guidelines governing public behavior in general.  And then, by degrees, the majority of these have been gradually reverting to conditions as they were before.  At this stage, changes imposed either by the virus or by its recession are no longer occurring on a daily or even a weekly basis.  There is, to be sure, no dearth of other news – a calamitous collapse of a multi-floored building on a Florida beach, the withdrawal of national troops from Afghanistan, the assassination of the President of Haiti, the flight of Richard Bronson to 50 miles above the earth’s surface that constitutes (symbolically at least) the first manned commercial vehicle flight to space – but events fueled by the pandemic directly are becoming less and less common. 

We are increasingly becoming two countries contained in a single national boundary.  Vaccinations are now progressing at a snail’s pace, despite an ample supply of vaccines.  The Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) broke out into cheering following an announcement that the government has not achieved 90% vaccinations.  That is to say, they are exulting in the prospect of numerous hospitalizations and deaths that could easily be prevented.  Donald Trump, as has already been noted, has been attempting to claim the credit of introducing the vaccines for himself.  So in this case the Republicans are not even in alignment with the man whom they claim to be his greatest devotees.  We appear to be on the road to the partitioning of our citizens into two groups, one with a high rate of inoculation and thus with a high degree of resistance against the virus, and the other with a much lower rate of inoculation and a correspondingly higher rate of hospitalizations.  The difference can be seen in discrepancies among various states.  In Maryland, for instance, 75.5% of all adults have received at least one dose.  In Tennessee, less than 45% of its adults have received one dose.

In connection with the CPAC, it may be mentioned that the metal fencing around the Capitol is going down.  It seems that it has at last been deemed safe enough to restore the Capitol to its original state, allowing visitors to enter after going through a security check, and that the building is no longer in danger of being besieged and plundered by zealots rallied by a defeated and sullen Presidential candidate.   Up to now, there has not been a need since 1812 to worry especially about the Capitol being targeted by foreign invaders; but the events of January have shown that we cannot be too optimistic about forestalling attacks from our own compatriots.

As so often happens, life on a personal level offers a great contrast to the turmoil of the national one.

Yesterday I went with AD and several others from Manassas Gap to the turnoff to Thompson Lake and back along the Appalachian Trail, with a slight detour via the Trico Tower Trail and the tower fire road, about 12 miles in all.  The weather was in the 80s by the mid-afternoon, but not humid; we started relatively early, when the temperatures were cooler, and the trail was well-shaded, so that the hike was quite comfortable.  I discovered that the lilies I had seen on this section of the trail earlier are not tiger lilies, as I had originally supposed, but Canada lilies or (as they are sometimes called) meadow lilies.  The flowers are similar in color and in their speckled appearance to tiger lilies but their leaves are whorled (radiating from a single point) instead of alternate (one node for each single leaf).   Towards the end of the hike we passed by several wineberry bushes bearing fruit and a number of us ate them by the handfuls during our descent back to the parking area.

We ended, as most of these hikes have ended, with feasting and chatting and general relaxation.  But today saw what was, for me, a more significant event, the first group social event I have attended since the pandemic began.  The Wanderbirds picnic was held at one of the numerous pavilions in Seneca Creek Park.  During the morning I led a group of eight or nine hikers along the route I had scouted the previous Wednesday.  We went at a fairly brisk pace, which I was prepared to slacken if anyone so requested, not being overly worried about arriving back at the pavilion after the food was laid out.  But as they all were striding vigorously whenever I looked back to check on them, I saw no reason to slow them down.  The weather was unexpectedly cooperative.  The forecast had been for a high degree of humidity and possible rainstorms.  It was indeed very sultry when we began the hike, but at one point that sun emerged from the clouds and the sunlight appeared to lighten the humidity.  The paths were well-shaded and there were hints of a breeze now and then.  It was not as comfortable as it had been yesterday but it was quite pleasant, and we had lovely views of the lake within the park and of the creek running along the park’s side.  There was an abundance of ripe wineberries and blackberries along the trails and I sampled a few as I passed by them – not as many as I would have ordinarily done, since I knew that a feast was being prepared against our return.

And so indeed it proved.  This being a Wanderbirds event, food and drink was supplied in abundance:  roasted chicken, salads of every description imaginable, homemade breads, fresh fruits such as strawberries and blackberries and grapes and chunks of melon and pineapple, and numerous desserts (I contributed a home-made almond tart) and at least half-a-dozen varieties of ice cream.  We had containers of lemonade and ice tea to quench our thirst, and alcoholic beverages were not neglected, with numerous varieties of beer and a few bottles of wine.  We gathered plates of food and sat at the tables underneath the spacious pavilion and conversed at leisure and gradually approached that state of mind described by Virginia Woolf in A Room of One’s Own about the experience of lunching at “Oxbridge”:

“And thus by degrees was lit, half–way down the spine, which is the seat of the soul, not that hard little electric light which we call brilliance, as it pops in and out upon our lips, but the more profound, subtle and subterranean glow which is the rich yellow flame of rational intercourse. No need to hurry. No need to sparkle. No need to be anybody but oneself. We are all going to heaven and Vandyck is of the company – in other words, how good life seemed, how sweet its rewards, how trivial this grudge or that grievance, how admirable friendship and the society of one’s kind . . .”

How admirable friendship and the society of one’s kind received special emphasis from the fact that several of the attendees were people whom I had not seen since the beginning of the pandemic or even longer.  There was GM, who moved to Delaware some years ago following his retirement but who used to attend Wanderbirds hikes now and then when they took place in Maryland before the pandemic put them to a halt, and with whom I had participated in the Hike Across Maryland in 2009.  There was CM, who had been a fairly constant club hiker until she developed foot trouble and had to refrain from long hikes for a time; she has recovered now and indeed was one of the stalwarts who went with me on the 9-mile hike during the morning.  There was BP, a long-time associate with whom I had co-led many hikes, including one that was particularly memorable for being the first our club had been physically able to perform after a series of snowfalls during “Snowmaggedon” (the winter of 2010/11, which deposited a record 56 inches of snow upon the DC area and made hiking trails impassable for weeks on end) and that took place among my old haunts at the Northwest Branch.  There was . . . but it would be tedious to list all of the old friends whom I was seeing anew, chatting with them as if the pandemic had never intervened and broken off our intercourse. 

We spoke of past memories and of plans for the future.   SM, the club president, outlined the manner in which the club will eventually be restored to its former condition.  It will proceed at a somewhat more cautious pace than the Capital Hiking Club, which will resume bus hikes in early August.  The Wanderbirds will organize hikes in which people will meet at the trailhead, and hike leaders will not be expected to supply food or maps.  Attendance will be restricted to current members.  The date for the resumption of bus hikes is still uncertain, but some time in early 2022 appears likely. 

We were not the only party within the park by any means.  The pavilions, as I mentioned, are numerous and several of them were occupied that day, for the most part by large groups devoting themselves, like our own group, to eating and drinking and socializing.  Other hikers besides ourselves were enjoying the trails, some visitors were carrying fishing poles as they went down to the lake, at the Boat Center several were renting rowboats and canoes.  It was quite easy to imagine, from the overall effect, that the pandemic was only a distant memory.  AN, one of the club members with whom I reconnected, is a medical professional, and she commented on how illusory such an impression is – the relatively large number of the unvaccinated and the virulence of the Delta variant are virtual guarantees of a substantial increase in cases this coming autumn – but for today, at least, all seemed peaceful, serene, and festive.

Yesterday’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 187,237,902; # of deaths worldwide: 4,042,192; # of cases U.S.: 34,725,797; # of deaths; U.S.: 622,819.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 187,615,494; # of deaths worldwide: 4,048,856; # of cases U.S.: 34,732,753; # of deaths; U.S.: 622,845.

Indications of the receding pandemic – COVID waning but not yet over – Evening statistics

It is interesting to see how much changes as a result of the passage of a few months.  During the month of February I was eagerly on the lookout for the opportunity to receive one of the COVID vaccines and fretting that I might not get inoculated in time for the trip to California in June.  Many people I know traveled miles away from their homes during that period to get vaccinated, in some cases even going out of state.  And yesterday, a bare five months later, I went into the local supermarket and saw a poster urging customers to take advantage of the vaccines available at its pharmacy.  No appointments were necessary, walk-ins were accepted without difficulty, and a 10% discount on any grocery purchases by the vaccine recipient was offered as an inducement for receiving getting the dose.

And in contrast to the deserted schoolyards that were a commonplace last year, today when I went past the local elementary school I saw and heard children playing joyously, the meadows ringing with their shouts and their laughter.  The silent and empty yards that I remembered from less than half a year ago seemed like a bad dream. 

But we are still far short of victory.  Nearly one half-million new cases were diagnosed today worldwide, and the daily death toll is over 8,000.  The complete global death toll is now over 4 million, or roughly one out of every 2,000.  As far as pandemics go, it is not an especially large figure, but it is significant nonetheless.  On the national level, there are areas here and there where the virus continues to expand.  In Missouri, for example, new cases have increased by 46% in the past two weeks, and new hospital admissions have increased by 30%.  Missouri has one of the lowest vaccination rates, with only 46% of residents who have received at least one dose and 40% who are fully vaccinated.  In one hospital, 88% of those admitted to the ICU are on ventilators.  “This is the absolute worst that I’ve ever seen it,” one of the nurses said.  “These patients are a lot sicker, and a lot younger, than what we saw the last go around, so it’s just really sad to see. And a lot of the population is unvaccinated.”

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 186,801,504; # of deaths worldwide: 4,034,575; # of cases U.S.: 34,708,382; # of deaths; U.S.: 622,690.

Masks at a residence home for the elderly – Scouting a hike for the upcoming Wanderbirds picnic – Eric Adams in New York – Rise of the Delta variant – Marjorie Taylor Greene in the news again – Evening statistics

I spent much of yesterday making arrangements to have my mother moved from the independent-living room she now occupies (with a full-time caretaker) to an assisted-living room.  There is naturally a certain amount of paperwork involved, but on the whole matters went smoothly.  I underwent a slight surprise when I entered the facility:  several residents and even a couple of the staff members were not wearing masks.  I remarked on this to MB, the caretaker, who told me that the requirement is now being less rigorously enforced as the virus is perceived to be receding, particularly as almost everyone in the building has been vaccinated.

The Wanderbirds club will be having a picnic on Sunday, the first official group event in well over a year.  As part of this festivity there will (of course) be some hiking available to those who want to go on the trails before the food is served.  Typically our picnics have featured shorter hikes than usual to allow us to devote the afternoon to feasting and other amusements.  In this case the longer of the two hikes offered will be about 10 miles.  I have volunteered to lead it, so I went out to scout it today.  I went as early in the morning as possible, because the temperatures rose to the upper 90s later in the day.  Even during early hours and even while walking in shady glades, the atmosphere became oppressive by mid-morning.  But the hike makes a circuit around a beautiful lake and there were numerous clusters of wineberries and blackberries, both of which taste best fresh off of the bush.   The weather forecast for Sunday, happily, is more favorable than today’s, in the mid-80s and with clouds to mitigate the glare of the summer sun. 

Eric Adams has secured the Democratic nomination for mayor of New York City.  That is welcome news, for Adams has consistently opposed the “defund the police” mantra of the far left flank of the party.  Police reform is certainly needed and, in addition, the police should to be relieved of certain tasks that can be more appropriately assigned to social workers.  But, as Adams noted, “You can have all the reforms you want. You can have a kinder, gentler police department. But if your streets are filled with guns and you’re dealing with a lot of violence, you are still going to have a lot of children being shot. . . . If you erode that trust [in law enforcement], you are going to erode public safety.”  Adams himself is not only a former police captain, but has had first-hand experience in his youth of the sort of harassment to which many blacks are being subjected.  It is no accident that while in the early stages of the primary he was not one of the front-runners, the recent surge in crime steadily pushed his platform to the fore.  People assuredly do not wish to be harassed, but neither do they wish to be unprotected from the numerous felons who prey upon them as the police is deprived of the ability to combat them.

The Delta variant of the COVID virus is now the dominant strain in the U.S, accounting for 51.7% of the new cases over a two-week period ending on July 3^rd.  The average age of these new cases is considerably younger than of cases from previous phases of the pandemic – not surprisingly, since adults in the range of 18 to 29 years account for nearly a quarter of those adults still unvaccinated.  In Maryland alone, every single person who died of COVID during the month of June was unvaccinated.  The unvaccinated also accounted for 95% of all new infections and 93% of all new hospitalizations during that period. 

Speaking of vaccinations, Marjorie Taylor Greene has compared Biden’s vaccine push to Nazi-era “brown shirts” just a few weeks after she was forced to apologize for her remarks comparing Capitol Hill mask-wearing rules to the Holocaust.  When asked about this comment by CNN, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said simply the White House does not take medical advice from Greene.  It would be pleasant to write this latest antic of Greene’s off as another desperate bid for attention, but it would not be true.  She raised $3.2 million during her first three months in office, an exceptional amount for a freshman member of the House.  She is as toxic as Trump himself; the scale on which she operates is somewhat more limited, but not limited enough to prevent her from doing an appalling amount of damage.

Yesterday’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 185,349,814; # of deaths worldwide: 4,008,455; # of cases U.S.: 34,616,333; # of deaths; U.S.: 621,563.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 185,807,906; # of deaths worldwide: 4,016,953; # of cases U.S.: 34,639,016; # of deaths; U.S.: 621,819.

Hiking in the G. Richard Thompson Wildlife Management area – Mask wearing in abeyance locally – Request for mask wearing in Los Angeles – Evening statistics

Today was warmer and more humid than yesterday, but nonetheless a group of us hiked in the G. Richard Thompson Wildlife Management area.  We went from the Upper Ted Lake parking area via the Trillium Trail to the Appalachian Trail up to the Trico Tower Trail, and then we went up to the tower.  It was about 6½ miles in all.  There are, of course, no trilliums in bloom at this time of the year, but the area is rich in wildflowers even at this season and we saw numerous phlox and tiger lilies.  And afterwards we went to the Fox Meadow winery nearby, enjoying a leisurely lunch at one of the picnic tables; the winery has customers bringing their own food eat outside of their main building, but we wished to be outside in any case, and the sun umbrella attached to the table, as well as some cloud cover that moved in, greatly mitigated any glare from the sun.  It was a great pleasure to eat on the lawn with a vista of mountain ranges before us, all covered with the rich green foliage of the season. 

At the winery itself, customers and staff alike were not wearing masks.  When I returned from the winery and went to a grocery store most of the customers were likewise without masks.  A few customers and one or two staff members were wearing masks, but they were in a minority.  At this point 62.1% of adults in the state are fully vaccinated and 71.5% have received at least one dose.  This does not quite meet the criteria of so-called “herd immunity” but it is close enough to make people confident – particularly in the counties close to DC, where the average amount of adults who have received at least one dose is close to three-quarters.  This relaxed attitude is typical of most of the country but there are exceptions. 

The Los Angeles County health officials have requested residents – even vaccinated ones – to wear masks in public places.  About 51% of the county residents are fully vaccinated, which is considerably lower than the percentage of residents in other populous counties in California such as San Francisco and Santa Clara (68% and 66% respectively).  The recent spike in cases as a result of the Delta variant has prompted this concern.  Hospitalizations had hit a record low on June 12, but since that time there has been a 30% increase of patients.  “The data is clear,  said Dr. Mark Ghaly, California Health and Human Services Secretary.  “Nearly all new COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths are preventable.”  Of the fatalities that have occurred in the nation since December, 99.8% were unvaccinated. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 184,909,389; # of deaths worldwide: 4,000,177; # of cases U.S.: 34,598,307; # of deaths; U.S.: 621,335.

The current Fourth of July and the previous one – Hiking in Shenandoah National Park and Prince Williams County Park – Not quite up to the 70% goal – Surprising dress code of the Ukrainian army – Evening statistics

What a contrast this Fourth of July weekend makes to the last one!  Last year at this time there were no parades, no musical events, no fireworks; now all of the usual festivities have been restored, while the muted and melancholy atmosphere associated with the previous Fourth of July has been utterly dissipated.  The parade took place on Saturday and the fireworks took place this evening.  With respect to this latter event I have seen numerous messages on Facebook from various grave personages discoursing about the heinousness of imposing trauma on various animals by such a display, including birds and dogs (cats, apparently, being able to take the matter in stride and shrug it off as one of the many peculiarities of the odd human creatures they live with).  These amiable moralists profess great anxiety over the welfare of species other than our own and a profound concern for the environment generally, and they possess, in fact, a genuine aversion towards anything resembling ease and enjoyment.  For the present, at least, their reproaches have had no effect.  Firework displays have been held across the nation, to the delight of the spectators and to children in particular, all the more intense for having been deprived of this pleasure during the previous year.

It seems a shame to forego the greater part of such amusements after so many people went to the trouble of organizing them, but I have been inactive for several days on account of the heat of the past week, and I felt the want of exercise and getting out of doors.  I therefore elected to go hiking with AD and RH both yesterday and today.  On Saturday we started from Jenkins Gap in Shenandoah National Park, taking a there-and-back along the Mount Marshall and Bluff Trails to Big Devils Stairs.  The view is somewhat less extensive than it was in March, when I last visited the overlook, since the foliage is now in full leaf.  Nonetheless it remains a splendid view of the gorge below and of the numerous ranges in the distance.  The temperature was astonishingly mild for the time of year.  Even in the lower elevations the temperature never rose above 80 degrees, while in the Jenkins Gap area it was quite cool during the morning and the temperature probably never rose to more than 71 or 72 degrees at the most.  Today we went to Prince William County Park and went on a 13-mile loop from the Visitor Center.  The park does not boast extensive panoramic views, but it goes through dense forest that perhaps shows to its greatest advantage at this time of year.  There is a particularly exhilarating quality from the mosaic-like effect of the chinks of blue sky dappled here and there with fluffy cumulus clouds appearing in the background of the lace-like patterns created by the leaves of the tree canopy arching about the trails.  It was considerably warmer today, without any of the cooling breezes we enjoyed yesterday, but it was well-shaded and – again quite surprisingly – there were very few insects, considering the warmth of the day and the fact that many small streams course through the park.  Lest my choice of activity for the weekend seems unpatriotic, I should add that many others decided to celebrate the holiday in the same fashion:  during the return drive from Jenkins Gap to the park entrance every parking area that I passed was completely full, and I meet numerous other hikers on the trails in Prince Williams County Park today. 

I had been feeling somewhat out of sorts on Saturday, quite tired and listless even after I arose in the morning; and although I perked up a bit after the first substantial climb on the Bluff Trail, I still was tired and disinclined to do much after I returned home.  But the hike did me good, for I rested well the preceding night and today I felt much more active, being able to cover the full circuit of today’s hike without feeling any particular fatigue.

As of today, 67.1% of American adults have received at least one vaccine dose and 55.4% have been completely vaccinated.  We are thus somewhat short of the goal Biden set on May 4 of having 70% of American adults receive one dose of the vaccine.  When Biden announced this goal, Americans were being vaccinated at the rate of 820,000 per day.  Had this rate been kept up over the past two months, we would have reached the goal easily, but as of today the daily rate of vaccination is barely 300,000.  Younger people between 18 and 24 have been particularly reluctant to get the vaccine – which is rather surprising; one would have expected an older generation to be more conservative and hidebound in such matters.  A considerable number of the unvaccinated told pollsters that they would be more likely to get the shots if they were required to return to their normal lives, such as flying on an airplane or attending large gatherings. But few businesses are able to levy more than cursory checks to verify if customers are fully vaccinated.  The immunization records across the nation are a disjointed patchwork, making it all but impossible to issue so-called “vaccination passports” even if state governors were willing to enforce them – and of course most of them are not.  Both Pfizer and Moderna have begun their Biologics License Applications (BLAs) to obtain full approval from the FDA and promote the vaccines from their current emergency status.  That circumstance may encourage some of the unvaccinated to accept the vaccines as safe.  Typically BLAs require eight months to be completed, but the FDA has indicated its willingness to expedite the process in this instance.  There is precedence for accelerated BLAs as a consequence of national outbreaks:  in 2014, for instance, an outbreak of meningococcal B prompted the FDA to complete the BLAs for the vaccines manufactured for this disease in roughly 3-4 months.

The Ukraine has imposed a somewhat unusual uniform regulation upon their female troops.  Commentators erupted with wonder, not unmingled with disapproval, when the Ukrainian ministry published photos on its Facebook page of their women soldiers marching in camouflaged pants, shirts, hats, and – high heels.  What strategic whiz among the top brass came up with this bizarre fashion statement?  And how exactly will they deploy these troops should the latter be called upon to participate in an actual battle?  Will they be expected to walk down a runway that leads into the main battleground and dazzle their opponents with the latest military chic as conceived by Calvin Klein, Ralph Lauren, Tom Ford, and Estée Lauder?   The residents of Crimea must be frantically brushing up on their fluency in Russian after discovering this latest development among the army that is supposedly defending them from invasion. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 184,546,101; # of deaths worldwide: 3,993,035; # of cases U.S.: 34,592,076; # of deaths; U.S.: 621,293.  The death toll was only 38 today, at least officially.  It sounds like a suspiciously low figure but even in India the death toll was well under 800.  The numbers of new infections and deaths worldwide are under 325,000 and under 6,000 respectively, so the virus does appear to be receding on a global level. The U.S. is now 15^th on the list of nations with the highest infection rates and 20^th on the nations with the highest mortality rates, a great improvement since January. 

Guests for brunch at home – Growing national confidence – When does a pandemic officially cease to be a pandemic? – Winning the struggle, but not quite victorious yet

This morning marked a significant step in the return to normalcy, at any rate on a personal level.  For the first time since the pandemic began I was able to invite visitors to a meal indoors.  My guests were EG and HG, who were one of the main links I had to any kind of social life outside of the after-hike gatherings I had with fellow-hikers after we finished wandering on the trails.  The leisurely conversations we enjoyed as we drank coffee together in their lovely backyard garden were a great restorative under conditions that otherwise would have caused my spirits to flag.  I will admit that it was a pleasure to prepare food for more than myself alone at long last, and I rather indulged myself (and, it is to be hoped, them as well) in preparing and selecting several foods that for the most part are occasional treats only, on the grounds that they are too caloric or too high in cholesterol or are improper in other ways that our health experts have laid down for the preservation of our virtue:  such as bacon, and smoked salmon, and whipped cream to accompany the raspberries and blackberries,  and Port Salut and Brie cheeses.  We sat down to brunch in the mid-morning and ate in a leisurely fashion in the sun room, which has glass walls on two of its sides and had a cheerful aspect even in the muted sunlight of a cloud-covering morning. 

It would seem that this little episode is indicative of the national mood at large.  For the upcoming holiday, private gatherings such as backyard barbecues have none of the restrictions or prohibitions seen a year ago, and firework displays are scheduled all over the country.  Biden has said that July 4^th will be the celebration of U.S. “independence from the coronavirus.”   It’s a little difficult to know how to take this.  Does he mean that the pandemic is officially over and that at this point the coronavirus is simply another endemic disease like influenza or shingles?  I think it is rather early to claim that we have reached that stage, and the CDC appears to agree.  The Delta variant is still spreading rapidly in much of the world, especially in India, which now officially has recorded more than 30 million cases and more than 400,000 deaths.  (As noted in several previous entries, the actual numbers are in all probability much higher.)  It has had little effect on vaccinated people (India has vaccinated only 4.4% of its population to date) but it is extremely contagious among the unvaccinated.  Currently this variant is making the rounds in several areas of the country, notably in places such as Arkansas, which has seen the biggest surge in cases since the winter.  The variant now accounts for about a quarter of all new COVID infections.  It is true that over 55% of all American adults are fully vaccinated, but just over 47% of the entire population has received both doses (or the Johnson and Johnson single dose vaccine).  It can hardly be otherwise; the vaccines are still under emergency authorization use, which excludes theire being administered to younger children.

Towards the end of the original Journal of the Plague Year, Defoe says that “it pleased God, by the continuing of the winter weather, so to restore the health of the city that by February following we reckoned the distemper quite ceased, and then we were not as easily frighted again.”  One supposes that a certain number of days with no new cases elapsed before medical authorities determined that the plague had “quite ceased.”  Whether we will ever reach that stage is questionable (the virus will probably become a sustainable ailment, taking away a certain number of people every year like influenza) but the present conditions are somewhat less reassuring, even though they are a substantial improvement on what we have undergone earlier.  We’re still getting several thousand new cases every day, and today we sustained over 300 deaths.  If we get a sufficient number of people vaccinated so that the risks of new clusters of infection become relatively small, then we can say with some assurance that the coronavirus no longer has the status of a pandemic; but with nearly 5 million cases still active, any declaration of victory at this point seems premature.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 183,830,490; # of deaths worldwide: 3,979,313; # of cases U.S.: 34,578,872; # of deaths; U.S.: 620,969.

Hot weather relief – The Trump Organization indicted – The economy rebounds, but national debt remains high – Evening statistics

We have had a series of extremely humid days in the high 90s – not quite as bad as the record-breaking temperatures in the normally cool Northwest, but very oppressive nonetheless:  going about a few errands on foot yesterday left me exhausted, and probably a bit dehydrated as well.  But it was less extreme today and the rain that began during the afternoon is expected to lower temperatures for a few days at least. 

The Trump Organization and its chief financial officer Allen Weisselberg have been formally charged by New York prosecutors with criminal fraud, attempting to cheat the IRS by giving its executives various fringe benefits without the recipients reporting any of these as income.   For example, Weisselberg received perks such as rent on an Upper West Side apartment, utilities and garage expenses; a leased Mercedes-Benz (as well as a second one for his wife’s use); nearly $30,000 in cash over a six-year period for personal holiday gratuities; furnishings such as new beds, flat-screen TVs, carpeting, and other furniture for his home in Florida; and $359,058 in tuition payments for Columbia Grammar & Preparatory School for two of his grandchildren, none of which was listed on any of his returns.  Trump himself is not charged, regrettably, but at least he is referenced.  Those payments were made by checks from Donald Trump’s account signed by Trump himself, and later from the Donald J. Trump revocable trust.  The investigation is still ongoing, however, and much depends on Weisselburg’s response.  For the moment he is pleading not guilty, but if he changes his mind and decides to assist prosecutors, they could use his testimony and evidence to pursue others.  One must hope for the best.  Even if the case ends up not accusing Trump directly, it has the potential of inflicting considerable financial losses upon him and of creating the extremely desirable effect of deflecting his energies from campaigning and issuing directives to the Republican Party.

There is both good news and bad news on the economic front.  The good news is that jobless claims have dropped to the lowest level since the beginning of the pandemic and the number of announced layoffs in June fell to a 21-year low.  Now that the risk of infection has diminished and mask mandates are nearly gone, more consumers now have the confidence to shop, travel, eat out, and attend public events.  This trend in turn fuels the demand for workers, notably at restaurants and tourism businesses.  Some employers are now actually struggling to fill jobs.  Posted job openings reached a new high in May, and some workers are successfully negotiating for more pay or improved working conditions. 

On the other hand, the pandemic has taken a huge toll on the national budget.  The U.S. deficit will reach $3 trillion this year, about 13% of the gross domestic product.  The GDP is projected to increase by 7.4% in 2021 as the economy rebounds from the pandemic-driven recession, but will then fall to an annual average of 1.6% between 2026 and 2031.  Inflation is projected to rise 2.8%.  The legal limit on the federal debt will be reached on August 1^st.   Republican lawmakers will not raise the debt ceiling without spending cuts or other debt reduction measures, and it is unlikely that the Democrats will agree.  So we may expect a government shutdown in a month or so.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 183,388,992; # of deaths worldwide: 3,970,595; # of cases U.S.: 34,560,646; # of deaths; U.S.: 620,639.