Hot weather relief – The Trump Organization indicted – The economy rebounds, but national debt remains high – Evening statistics
We have had a series of extremely humid days in the high 90s – not quite as bad as the record-breaking temperatures in the normally cool Northwest, but very oppressive nonetheless: going about a few errands on foot yesterday left me exhausted, and probably a bit dehydrated as well. But it was less extreme today and the rain that began during the afternoon is expected to lower temperatures for a few days at least.
The Trump Organization and its chief financial officer Allen Weisselberg have been formally charged by New York prosecutors with criminal fraud, attempting to cheat the IRS by giving its executives various fringe benefits without the recipients reporting any of these as income. For example, Weisselberg received perks such as rent on an Upper West Side apartment, utilities and garage expenses; a leased Mercedes-Benz (as well as a second one for his wife’s use); nearly $30,000 in cash over a six-year period for personal holiday gratuities; furnishings such as new beds, flat-screen TVs, carpeting, and other furniture for his home in Florida; and $359,058 in tuition payments for Columbia Grammar & Preparatory School for two of his grandchildren, none of which was listed on any of his returns. Trump himself is not charged, regrettably, but at least he is referenced. Those payments were made by checks from Donald Trump’s account signed by Trump himself, and later from the Donald J. Trump revocable trust. The investigation is still ongoing, however, and much depends on Weisselburg’s response. For the moment he is pleading not guilty, but if he changes his mind and decides to assist prosecutors, they could use his testimony and evidence to pursue others. One must hope for the best. Even if the case ends up not accusing Trump directly, it has the potential of inflicting considerable financial losses upon him and of creating the extremely desirable effect of deflecting his energies from campaigning and issuing directives to the Republican Party.
There is both good news and bad news on the economic front. The good news is that jobless claims have dropped to the lowest level since the beginning of the pandemic and the number of announced layoffs in June fell to a 21-year low. Now that the risk of infection has diminished and mask mandates are nearly gone, more consumers now have the confidence to shop, travel, eat out, and attend public events. This trend in turn fuels the demand for workers, notably at restaurants and tourism businesses. Some employers are now actually struggling to fill jobs. Posted job openings reached a new high in May, and some workers are successfully negotiating for more pay or improved working conditions.
On the other hand, the pandemic has taken a huge toll on the national budget. The U.S. deficit will reach $3 trillion this year, about 13% of the gross domestic product. The GDP is projected to increase by 7.4% in 2021 as the economy rebounds from the pandemic-driven recession, but will then fall to an annual average of 1.6% between 2026 and 2031. Inflation is projected to rise 2.8%. The legal limit on the federal debt will be reached on August 1st. Republican lawmakers will not raise the debt ceiling without spending cuts or other debt reduction measures, and it is unlikely that the Democrats will agree. So we may expect a government shutdown in a month or so.
Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 183,388,992; # of deaths worldwide: 3,970,595; # of cases U.S.: 34,560,646; # of deaths; U.S.: 620,639.