Month: October 2021

Hiking in Cunningham State Park – The cynicism of Richard Burr – China’s heartfelt concerns about foreign foodstuffs – The tribulations of Russia – Muted Halloween – Evening statistics

I went with the Wanderbirds to hike in Cunningham State Park, going via the Catoctin Trail to the Cat Rock Trail, clambering over the rock formation at Cat Rock, then descending to the Old Misery Trail (much more inviting than its name would suggest), walking along the road to return to the Catoctin Trail, and going from there to the manor parking area.  The day varied between intervals of sunlight and overcast skies with brief sprinkles.  It was a curious experience climbing up Bob Hill.  It has been years since I have last completed it, and at that time I remembered it as being quite strenuous.  Now it did not seem to me especially difficult, for during the interval I have gone up far more challenging ascents.  It was a long climb, to be sure (about 1½ miles in distance) and it ascends about 1000 feet, but much of the grade is moderate and some areas are nearly flat.  For much of the distance from the parking area to the top of Bob’s Hill I scarcely slowed down at all. 

Virginia has had its issues with the pandemic, but those confronting its neighbor to the south are somewhat more acute.  Richard Burr, a senator from North Carolina, is currently under a Securities and Exchange Commission investigation concerning himself and his brother-in-law engaging in insider stock trading.  This particular instance of insider trading was not dubious merely in a financial sense.  Publicly, Burr was co-authoring op-eds reassuring the public that the United States was prepared to confront the virus in early 2020.  Privately he was dumping stocks in anticipation of the virus expanding to pandemic levels, which of course it did.  He never shared the warnings he and other Congress members were receiving from U.S. intelligence agencies, apparently for purely financial reasons.  This willingness to sacrifice the health and safety of his constituents for the sake of his investments marks a degree of turpitude unusual even for a United States Senator.

Chinese state media has been promoting the theory that the spread of the coronavirus is caused by various foodstuffs, such as lobster from the U.S, beef from Brazil, and shrimp from Saudi Arabia.  By an amazing coincidence, China is engaged in trade wars with all three nations.  It probably is not a surprise to anyone that no study outside of the country confirms such claims.  Nonetheless, China is restricting exports on the basis of this study, as well as using it to counter growing international concerns about Wuhan as the epicenter of the virus.

While virus infections are declining in the U.S and much of continental Europe, they are increasing in Russia.  The nation has sustained nearly 41,000 new infections yesterday, the largest recorded since the virus began to be monitored in 2020.  There is reason to believe, also, that both cases and deaths are severely under-reported.  Vladimir Putin has ordered a non-working period from Oct. 30 to Nov. 7, during which most state agencies and private businesses will suspend operations.  Moscow introduced the measure beginning Thursday, shutting down kindergartens, schools, gyms, entertainment venues, and most stores.  Restaurants are restricted to takeout or delivery. Food stores, pharmacies and companies operating key infrastructure remain open.  Unvaccinated people older than 60 have been ordered to stay at their homes.  Only about one-third of all Russians are fully vaccinated. 

Tonight is Halloween.  It always is a gamble trying to gauge how much candy to purchase for the trick-or-treaters.  The turnout in my neighborhood has traditionally been on the low side; the parents prefer to organize private events restricted to families of other children that are friends of their own.  Tonight probably has seen the lowest turnout I can remember.  Only a few children were walking on the streets in costume and hardly any knocked at my door.  I don’t know whether this is a consequence of the pandemic or whether parents are simply becoming more reluctant to allow their children to go trick-or-treating, even with supervision.  Probably a bit of both.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 247,445,338; # of deaths worldwide: 5,014,737; # of cases U.S.: 46,823,785; # of deaths; U.S.: 766,297.

The Crow’s Nest hike – Progress in the investigation of the January 6^th riot – The upcoming Virginia election – Vaccination rates in the area – Evening statistics

Today I led the hike in the Crow’s Nest natural reserve that I had explored about a month earlier for the Capital Hiking Club.  There were only six of us in all, but we thoroughly enjoyed ourselves.  The forecast had been for mostly cloudy weather but we obtained a good deal of sunlight, especially during the morning.  We had lunch at the Boykin’s Landing overlook, which provides the reserve’s most extensive views of the Potomac Creek draining into the Potomac River.  When I had scouted it I had seen several birds, but today we saw none except at this overlook, with a narrow-winged tern in flight and a flock of geese streaming above the water.  Everyone was willing to take the longer option, so we covered over 11 miles in all.  As if in compensation for the paucity of birds, we encountered other varieties of wildlife, including a beaver in Accotink Creek and a few newts and salamanders along the Accotink Creek Loop Trail. 

It appears that the investigation into the events of January 6^th is yielding some tangible results at last.  Trump has filed a lawsuit (no surprises there) to block congressional investigators from accessing hundreds of pages of records they requested from the National Archives, which inherited Trump’s presidential papers.  The latest court filings include more than 700 pages of handwritten notes, draft documents, and daily logs that his top advisers kept related to January 6^th.   “In 2021, for the first time since the Civil War, the Nation did not experience a peaceful transfer of power,” the House Committee wrote. “The Select Committee has reasonably concluded that it needs the documents of the then-President who helped foment the breakdown in the rule of law. . . . It is difficult to imagine a more critical subject for Congressional investigation.”  So there may be a chance of Donald Trump being brought to justice at least, although such a prediction may represent the triumph of hope over experience.

I regret to say that a Republican victory for the gubernatorial election in Virginia is looking more likely.  Officially the polls are slightly in favor of McAuliffe, giving him 49% of the vote vs. 48% for Youngkin.  But only 21% of the voters “strongly” approve of Biden’s performance as President and 44% “strongly” disapprove of him.  The passion and enthusiasm of the opposition party is clearly stronger than that of the party currently in power, and that may prove to be the deciding factor this coming Tuesday.

The mid-Atlantic area is doing relatively well as far as vaccination rates are concerned.  For Maryland, DC, and Virginia, 86.3%, 73.6%, and74.7% respectively of the adult populations are fully vaccinated.  Maryland, as can be seen, has been especially aggressive in promoting the vaccines; in this respect, Governor Larry Hogan provides a vivid (and edifying) contrast to the majority of his Republican counterparts in other states.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 247,104,564; # of deaths worldwide: 5,009,930; # of cases U.S.: 46,799,538; # of deaths; U.S.: 766,117.

Kinzinger steps down – The billionaires’ protests – Lewis on Pride – Vaccines vs. natural immunity – The shrewdness of Glenn Youngkin – The issue of education in Virginia – Pfizer authorized for young children – Evening statistics

Adam Kinzinger has announced that he will not seek re-election for his position in the House of Representatives.  Such a decision is not unexpected, for he has undergone an extremely frustrating experience during the last several months.  He has been consistently maligned for his resolute opposition to Donald Trump’s baneful influence on both the Republican party and the national political scene generally, not only by his own party but – what must be still more bitter for him – by his own church. But it is unfortunate all the same; with his departure, the Republican Party is deprived of one of the few voices of reason it has left and as a result is more firmly than ever in the hands of Trump’s flunkies.  Trump is clearly gratified by the news.  “Two down, eight to go!” was his exultant response – alluding to the decision of Anthony Gonzalez, another Republican to vote for the second impeachment, not to seek re-election.  Kinzinger has stated that he will continue work for Country First, a political action committee he founded for the purpose of combatting Trump’s grip on the Republican Party.  One can only wish him well, though I personally see little chance of his succeeding.

Various billionaires are protesting vociferously to a proposed plan that would tax gains of people with either $1 billion or more in assets or three consecutive years of income of $100 million or more. It would apply to fewer than about 800 people, who would have to pay tax on the value of tradable items, such as stocks, even if they don’t sell them. Under current law, such assets are subject to tax only when they’re sold.  The unenlightened public may be surprised at the intensity of their objections:  why should it matter to Elon Musk, for instance, if his personal fortune is $250 billion instead of $300 billion (the amount of his current estimated wealth).  What they do not realize is that people like Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos cling to money with the fervor that Romeo bestowed upon Juliet; it is the essence of their being, without they would become forlorn shadows of their former selves; they regard it with the protective attitude of a mother towards her infant child, and pennies and farthings remain clutched in their grasp under circumstances that would have driven them abruptly from less devoted hands. 

C. S. Lewis makes the point in “Mere Christianity” that of the seven deadly sins, pride is the most harmful.  As an example, he instances attitudes such as these being the result of pride rather than avarice.  “Greed will certainly make a man want money, for the sake of a better house, better holidays, better things to eat and drink.  But only up to a point. What is it that makes a man with £10,000 a year anxious to get £20,000 a year? It is not the greed for more pleasure. £10,000 will give all the luxuries that any man can really enjoy. It is Pride—the wish to be richer than some other rich man, and (still more) the wish for power. For, of course, power is what Pride really enjoys: there is nothing makes a man feel so superior to others as being able to move them about like toy soldiers.”  Musk himself bears out this assertion.  He claims to base his objections not on the basis of greed but on the assumption that he can put his money to much better use than the U.S. government is capable of doing:  “My plan,” he tweeted yesterday, “is to use the money to get humanity to Mars and preserve the light of consciousness.”  If he is not an embodiment of the deadly sin of Pride, I don’t know what is.

A study by the CDC has found that vaccines confer a higher rate of immunity from the virus than previous infection does.  This, of course, is not conclusive – the CDC, after all, has consistently recommended vaccines from the onset and thus has a vested interest in seeing such a recommendation justified – but it is it, any rate, suggestive.  The study examined 7,000 people hospitalized with COVID-like illnesses, and found that those who were unvaccinated — but had a previous case of the illness — were five times more likely to have a confirmed case of COVID than people who were fully vaccinated and had not had COVID before.  Deepta Bhattacharya, a professor of immunology at the University of Arizona, cautioned such a comparison does not address the main issue.  “The reason to prefer vaccine-induced immunity is that infections can make you really sick, not that they don’t leave you immune.”  And, as I pointed out in an earlier entry, the aftermath of such infections can be severe, even after the original infections have disappeared.

I am bound to admit that Glenn Youngkin has displayed a certain shrewdness in the gubernatorial race.  He cannot say outright that he doesn’t want Trump meddling in his campaign – that would alienate the numerous Trump supporters in the rural areas of the state.  At the same time he cannot afford to be seen as Trump’s puppet, which would forfeit the loyalty of almost every independent and even some Republicans in Northern Virginia, the most heavily populated area.  So he has kept all outside Republican celebrities at a distance, including Trump himself, and has invited none of them to his rallies.  Trump, of course, is not easily kept away when he has a mind to be involved.  He intends to hold a tele-rally on Youngkin’s behalf.  But it will take place on Monday, the day before the election, and it is not likely to have much effect at that late date. 

The issue that has become the central focus of the Virginia election is education.  McAuliffe is decidedly showing to disadvantage here.  “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they need to teach,” he said recently – quite maladroitly.  Parents certainly have a legitimate concern about the curriculum being taught to their children.  Youngkin, on the other hand, has won the confidence of many parents by denouncing the pornographic content of certain books various school boards and the compulsory teaching of critical race theory, and with that I am in thorough agreement.  Critical race theory, as it now stands, is political indoctrination.  It is one thing to teach about the horrific living conditions imposed by slavery and the Jim Crow laws, and the heroic struggles of figures such as Frederick Douglass, Harriet Tubman, Charlotte Fortin, Booker T. Washington, Ralph Bunche, Martin Luther King, and numerous others to overcome them; it is quite another to mislead students into believing that these are the totality of American history.

The Pfizer vaccine has now been authorized for children in the 5-11 age range.  Officially the nation’s vaccination rate is 57.8% but this figure is for people of all ages.  The actual figure of those eligible for vaccination up to this point – that is to say, everyone aged 12 and older – is 67.7%.  It appears likely that the national vaccination as a whole will increase substantially now that younger children may receive at least one of the available vaccines.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 246,719,184; # of deaths worldwide: 5,003,850; # of cases U.S.: 46,765,347; # of deaths; U.S.: 765,645.  Despite the recent declines in cases, we have reached an undesirable milestone:  the global death count is now over 5 million. 

COVID “long-haulers” – A different national health issue – The upcoming gubernatorial election in Virginia – Evening statistics

As pandemics go, COVID-19’s mortality rate, while far from insignificant, is not outstandingly high – about 2% globally.  That may be one reason why certain people, including a small fraction of those in the health care profession, are treating this disease so cavalierly:  the majority of those afflicted with COVID do recover.  But we may want to adjust our ideas of what “recovery” means in light of how some patients have been affected after they have survived the disease.

Alex Castro from Sandy, OR, is a case in point.  He is aged 44, what would ordinarily be the prime of life.  He was formerly a vigorous swimmer and hiker.  When he became stricken with the disease, he spent nearly ten months in hospitalization.  He was on an ECMO, a heart and lung bypass machine, for 108 days.  At this point he is just barely able to walk across his living room, using baby steps and panting with every movement.  He has been out of the hospital for 20 days and is said to be improving each day; nonetheless, his physicians believe that he may need a lung transplant eventually.  He used to work at a Burger King, a job that he liked and that he wishes to resume, but it is very doubtful that he will ever regain the strength to do so.  He is on oxygen around the clock and his doctor said that he will be on it for the rest of his life.

Castro is a “long-hauler,” i.e., a patient who has recovered from the initial infection but is still struggling with persistent debilitating symptoms.  No one knows what causes such cases.  Some have hypothesized that the virus is still “hiding” in the bodies of such patients.  Others suggest that such people’s immune systems have gone into overdrive as a result of the virus.  Not all of the long-haulers have symptoms as dramatic as Castro’s, but many are perpetually plagued with extreme continual fatigue, headaches, dizziness, “brain fog,” difficulty in breathing, and numerous other issues.  It is unclear, also, the fraction of COVID patients who undergo such symptoms.  About one-third appears likely, but estimates have ranged from 5% to 80% of those infected.  In any case, the number amounts to several millions and it will affect our national health for some time to come, even after COVID is a pandemic no longer. 

It appears that the mask mandates, as well as several cases of individual anti-vaxxers belatedly discovering what the consequences of foregoing the vaccine can entail, has had some effect.  Nearly 80% of the population aged 18 or older have received at least one dose and nearly 70% are fully vaccinated.  Among the seniors 65 and older, nearly 97% have received at least one dose and nearly 85% are fully vaccinated. 

The U.S. has another serious health issue to grapple with.  It can’t really be called a pandemic, because it is not linked to a specific disease and in most cases is quite preventable:  namely, obesity.  An obesity rate is defined as the share of adults 20 years and older who report a body mass index of 30 kg/m2 or higher. The dubious honor of being the state with the highest rate of obesity goes to Mississippi, with 39.1% of its adult population considered obese – a fact that should cause no surprise, for 30.4% of the state’s adult population, by its own admission, does not exercise at all.  Colorado has the lowest rate of obesity, but even so its obesity rate for its adult population is 22.4%.  These figures are as of 2017; the current adult obesity rate is probably higher.

Election Day is looming ahead, and it affects our state in particular.  The gubernatorial race between Youngkin and McAuliffe is running so close that it will probably take several days to count the votes and determine the winner.  Sadly, I saw many signs in favor of Youngkin when I recently drove through rural Virginia, as well as several anti-Biden ones.  I even saw the odd Trump/Pence sign here and there; to those who keep them on their lawns, the 2020 election has not ended.  Already Republicans are trotting out accusations of voter fraud for the state election and are busily preparing lawsuits in the eventuality of losing.  I never thought I would be nostalgic for Richard Nixon, but during the 1960 election he categorically refused to consider contesting the election, even though he had grounds to do so on account of the uncertainties of the manner in which votes were counted both in Illinois and in Texas.  His attitude was that a lengthy controversy would diminish the United States in the eyes of the world and that the uncertainty would hurt U.S. interests.  The recent events of the past several months have proved him quite prescient on both counts.

Yesterday’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 245,738,410; # of deaths worldwide: 4,987,021; # of cases U.S.: 46,578,318; # of deaths; U.S.: 761,684.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 246,236,773; # of deaths worldwide: 4,995,822; # of cases U.S.: 46,677,047; # of deaths; U.S.: 763,720.

Burke’s Garden hikes – An encouraging trend – Evening statistics

The hikes from the trip were as follows:

10/17 – AT, Thunder Ridge Overlook to Sulphur Spring Trail and back, 18 miles, 3000’ elevation gain.  This hike and the succeeding one, which I did on my own, were arduous.  The ground was fairly rocky most of the time – not a series of boulder fields like the trail in northern Pennsylvania, but uneven enough to slow my pace.  They were also continually going up and down, with few flat areas.  The weather was favorable, clear and cool.  The hike itself was not exceptional.  There were good views at the Thunder Ridge overlook itself but not many during the remainder of the hike.  As I noted earlier, the change in the foliage was just beginning, and many leaves were already withered by the long summer. 

I checked in that night at Bedford.  From what I saw of it, it appears a fairly prepossessing town; but I was too tired after the hike to do much sight-seeing.  The hotel was modest and unpretentious, but the room was sizeable, clean, and stocked with various amenities.  Outside of myself, no one in the lobby or the corridors wore a mask. 

10/18 – AT, Thunder Ridge to Floyd Mtn. and back, 14 miles, 3900’ elevation.  The hike had many more views than the previous one, including one at Black Rock and one at the FAA tower.  Both of these provided overviews of a complicated network of ridges and valleys partitioned by various land tongues projecting from the ridges.  On this day the change in foliage was more evident, with occasional displays of vivid reds and yellows. 

After the hike I drove to Wytheville, where I had a quick lunch, and from there to the Parsonage in Burke’s Garden.  It was very gratifying to relax in the extensive upstairs sitting room and in my allotted bed chamber instead of retiring to an impersonal hotel room.

10/19 – AT, Groseclose to Rte. 42, 13 miles, 3000’ elevation.  This hike was a key-swap hike, with BM and I going northbound, the more strenuous direction on this segment.  Nonetheless it was considerably less tiring than the hikes I did on my own, much less rocky and with milder grades for both ascending and descending.  The hike provided audial as well as visual stimulation:  numerous birds were caroling during the first few miles, and blue jays flitted above continually.  The trail is not well-blazed in this area and we took a few wrong turns.  BM said that he felt like sending a gallon of paint to the trail maintainers.  The views appeared towards the end of the hike, particularly as we crossed over a field and looked down into the valley while we ascended.  We passed through several rhododendron groves and a couple of them showed one or two flowers, which is very unusual for this time of year.  One highlight of the hike was coming upon a sign that designated completion of one-quarter of the AT for through-hikers going northbound from Springer Mountain, the trail terminus. 

10/20 – AT, Rte. 42 to Walker’s Gap, 13 miles, 3900’ elevation.  This hike was particularly beautiful.  We all went together, shuttling to leave a car to enable us to return.  It was a lovely day, very clear and in the low-to-mid 60s throughout.  During the morning sunlight filtered through the leaves of tulip and hickory trees, imparting a golden-green luminescence beneath the tree canopy.  The hike contained a couple of steepish climbs, but not overly long.  These were, in RH’s phrase, “unceremonious”:  we simply went up to a high point and immediately went down again, with no views or markers to signify that we had completed an ascent.  About five miles into the hike, after the first ascent, we crossed Lick Creek.  The bridge had been washed out over a year ago and the storm that wrecked it must have been quite a powerful one, for the remains of the bridge were massive.  But the weather during the past few days had been dry and as a result one could go over the creek, if not quite dryshod, at any rate without getting one’s socks wet.   We then went up an ascent of 2000 feet of elevation, but spread out over 4½ miles.  Some portions of it were steep, but most of it was well-graded.  During the last mile of the ascent we came to a bald that provided numerous views of ranges and valleys, with Grayson Highlands and Mount Rogers in the distance to the south.  From the shelter at the top, we looked down the other side of the ridgeline, where we obtained a bird’s-eye view of Burke’s Garden, the highest valley in Virginia, with its oval shape, created long ago by the collapse of the limestone underneath, led it to be nicknamed “God’s thumbprint.”  The shelter itself is unusual.  Instead of having three walls like the majority of them, it has a fourth wall and is entered by means of a door, which must be quite a relief to through-hikers who reach it on a rainy day.  From there we descended to the parking area at Walker’s Gap, which is only about a ten-minute ride back to the Parsonage.

10/21 – Great Channels, 6.5 miles, 1200’ elevation.  The hike consists of an out-and-back to sandstone formations that form slot canyons, not as extensive as the ones in the Southwest but quite as narrow in places, the passage being defined by huge boulders and rock walls on both sides.  The day was misty and overcast, limiting the views from above, but autumnal foliage was more advanced in this area, with many patches of reds and russets and yellows throughout.

10/22 – AT/Rte. 615 to Walker Gap, 14 miles, 3450’ elevation.  This hike was the most arduous of the one we undertook as a group.  It was a key-swap hike; BM and I took the southbound direction, which is the more strenuous of the two.  It was a good hike, but not a great one.  It had no views to speak of and the sky was overcast.  However, the foliage between Rte. 615 and Jenkins shelter was brilliant, by far the most colorful I had seen on the trip to date.  BM and I went up one ascent of well over 1500 feet, after which I was anticipating relatively easy going.  The elevation profile on the map displayed little ups and downs with not especially steep grades.  But there were so many of them that we ascended nearly an additional amount of 1000 feet and the ground was rocky, whereas the first portion of the hike had been much smoother.  Even though we had come over the half-way point after the long ascent, we took more time to complete the segment that remained after completing the biggest climb of the hike.

10/23 – Seven Sisters, 9 miles, 1500’ elevation.  After the preceding hike we were all in the mood for an easier one, and in any case we had completed the most difficult hikes on our agenda.  This hike is unspectacular but very pleasant.  It went up to a ridgeline and then over various peaks (the “sisters”) on the ridge.  Views were mainly obstructed, but there were some partial clearings through the trees and the fall colors were on display throughout.  The return consisted of a road walk, but the road had little traffic and wide flat shoulders to walk upon.  In addition, from below we could make out the contours of the peaks clearly.  The weather was also favorable, somewhat cloudy in the beginning but rapidly becoming clear by the time we reached the ridgeline.

10/24 – AT, Rte. 52 to Rte. 615, 8 miles, 1300’ elevation. Several of us had actually completed this hike during the previous visit, but some members of the group had not.  It is an attractive section of the trail, skirting around the mountain rather than ascending all the way to the ridgeline; it may have been developed from an old wagon road.  I had gone ahead of the others for the last ascent and while I was waiting for them at a junction I chatted with a friendly pair of section-hikers who were passing by.  We exchanged our impressions of the AT, especially concerning our experiences in Pennsylvania. 

The hike was well-chosen to round off the trip, long enough to fill up the better part of the day, but leaving sufficient time to return to the house relatively early in order to regroup and organize packing.  We were fortunate in our weather as well.  It was optimal that day; whereas the forecast for the area predicted rain for much of the coming week.

Speaking of the AT in Pennsylvania, when I returned and went through the mail I found a certificate from the Keystone Trail Association for my having completed the entire section of the AT that runs through the state.  I had submitted a form much earlier that described the sections I had done and the dates that I had completed them, but I had heard nothing afterwards for months and assumed that it had gotten lost in the shuffle.  It was a pleasing surprise to obtain it after all.

Some good news for a change:  the current wave of the coronavirus has crested.  The number of new daily cases has declined by 57% since September 1^st, the peak date.  And they have been declining in every state.  How the upcoming winter season and its colder temperatures, which result in less outdoor activity, is yet to be seen.  The wearing of masks, as I indicated earlier, has become much more relaxed, and that may lead to new increases.  There have been flare-ups in Alaska and several states in the Mountain West, but that is more likely due to resistance to vaccines than the chillier weather.  Cases are declining in Canada and in the more densely populated cities, where people are notably more likely to become vaccinated.  Dr. Ali Mokdad, of the University of Washington, predicts a new surge in the virus in November, but adds that its scope will depend on several factors:  1) vaccine mandates; 2) FDA approval and rollout of vaccines for children in the 5-11 age range; 3) boosters; 4) wearing masks indoors. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 245,255,872; # of deaths worldwide: 4,978,197; # of cases U.S.: 46,497,380; # of deaths; U.S.: 759,936.

Return to a unique area – Decline in use of face masks – The delay in autumn colors – A coup d’état in Sudan – Is the pandemic undermining democracy? – Evening statistics

Approximately a year ago I vacationed with AD, RH, and others in Burke’s Garden for the purpose of hiking along segments of the Appalachian Trail.  The locality is close to several trailheads, and as we had a gap of nearly 40 miles nearby that we had not yet covered, we stayed in the same area and, in fact, in the same house.  The Parsonage, as it is called, was as inviting as ever, with its spacious rooms, well-appointed kitchen, and vistas of the crater-like valley ringed by mountains and of the main road where the Amish children periodically pass by on bicycles and sliders on their way to school.  There were fewer of us this time – six as opposed to eight – and, as before, we each had a separate room.  As before, also, we ate our dinners in the house rather than going to Tazewell, the nearest town with any restaurants.  But the atmosphere was more relaxed than the last time.  We did not wear masks in the house or in the cars when we were riding together, as we had done in 2020; and instead of every person sitting apart from one another at meals, we sat together at the dining table. 

This relaxation was not confined to ourselves.  Even in northern Virginia the policy with regard to face masks varies considerably.  Some places request customer to wear masks (banks and post offices in particular); others allow each customer to decide for himself; and still others do not require the employees to wear masks, let alone customers.  In the southwest of Virginia, where Burke’s Garden is located, masks have been abandoned altogether; no cashier or assistant in any store I entered was wearing one. 

I did not join AD and RH directly in Burke’s Garden, however.  I broke up the journey to Burke’s Garden by staying overnight in Bedford in order to do some hiking on my own along segments of the AT further north of where we were staying.  I hiked on the AT during the late morning and early afternoon of the 17^th before checking in the hotel for the night, hiked again on the 18^th before driving to Burke’s Garden, and then hiked with the others each day up to the 25^th, the day of our departure.  Thus I hiked for 9 consecutive days (including the hike I did on the 16^th, the day before the trip) for a total of over 100 miles. 

We had some difficulty obtaining cable news on the television downstairs, and I cannot say that the lack of it troubled us overmuch.  In general, we spoke very little about current events and our conversations consisted mainly about our impressions on the hikes we took together, along with various gastronomic matters – several members of the party being extremely talented chefs.  Indeed we ate very well, with a pleasant consciousness, on account of each day’s exertions and of the calories they consumed, of it not being necessary to constrain our appetites.  In particular, CB, the member of our group who is a connoisseur of wines, supplied us with vintages that would have gratified crowned heads.

Some of the hikes were key swaps and some involved shuttling to establish cars at either end of the hike.  We also took two hikes at state parks, which started and ended at the same parking area and consequently involved less complicated driving arrangements. Details of the hikes must be postponed for a later entry, when I have more leisure to describe them at length.  But there is one feature that was common to all of them. Ordinarily at this time of year the autumn colors are beginning to move past their peak.  On these hikes the burst of leaf color was just beginning, and it did not reach the peak color even on the final day, although we are past the middle of October.  When I drove back today to areas that are at lower elevations and less further inland, the autumnal colors were just beginning.  This is perhaps the latest time of the year I have ever observed the process of the change in leaf color. 

The news item that primarily occupied my attention while listening on the radio during the drive to return home was the one concerning the military takeover in Sudan.  The military government had grudgingly agreed to share its power with a civilian faction in 2019, following the ousting of former President Omar al-Bashir, and for a time it did appear that the nation had a chance of transitioning into a democracy of sorts and even of being able to conduct the first free vote that it has known for decades.  But that is over now; the military has put Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok under house arrest, along with his wife, and it shows every sign of restoring the harsh autocracy of previous years. 

Democracy has not fared well during the time of the pandemic.  Sudan has succumbed to military rule, as has Myanmar earlier this year, while Afghanistan is now firmly under the iron hand of the Taliban.  And then there was the assault upon our own democratic institutions on January 6^th – “but that way madness lies; no more of that!”  It is unclear whether the pandemic has played a role in the decline of democratic institutions or whether this decline is what philosophers call an epiphenomenon: a secondary directly observable event (or “phenomenon”) that occurs alongside or in parallel to a primary phenomenon, in which the primary phenomenon appears to be a cause of the secondary one without in fact being so.  Historians must eventually decide the nature of the effect that the pandemic has had upon the underpinnings of democratic government. 

I did not get statistics every day that I was away, but I did collect a few of them:

Statistics for 10/17 as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  241,457,249; # of deaths worldwide: 4,913,786; # of cases U.S.: 45,792,111; # of deaths; U.S.: 744,542.

Statistics for 10/18 as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  241,838,063; # of deaths worldwide: 4,919,377; # of cases U.S.: 45,881,767; # of deaths; U.S.: 745,740.

Statistics for 10/23 as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  244,087,379; # of deaths worldwide: 4,958,942; # of cases U.S.: 46,294,210; # of deaths; U.S.: 756,205.

Statistics for 10/24 as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  244,409,806; # of deaths worldwide: 4,963,509; # of cases U.S.: 46,312,782; # of deaths; U.S.: 756,362.

Statistics for 10/25 (today) as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  244,785,410; # of deaths worldwide: 4,969,662; # of cases U.S.: 46,400,879; # of deaths; U.S.: 757,660.

The mortality rate is decelerating.  Today’s death toll was slightly over 400.  But the U.S. now ranks 16^th in the mortality rate for its national population, whereas formerly it was the 21^st.  The rate is now nearly 0.25%, or one in every 400 people.

In Shenandoah National Park – An honest misunderstanding – Youngkin’s predicament – Another COVID tragedy – Evening statistics

It was somewhat imprudent to go hiking the day before starting a trip that will entail more than a week of hiking each day.  But the hike was a good one, and in addition I wanted to ensure that the official Wanderbirds hikes were being kept alive.  There were only four of us today, partly because CB, the leader, specified getting an early start in order to arrive at Shenandoah National Park before the hordes of leaf-observers did and partly on account of the weather forecast, which called for rain by 11 or 12.  The hike went from the Pinnacles parking area up to Stony Man, then down to the fire road and eventually reaching the Corbin Cabin Cutoff Trail back to Skyline.  The ascent along the Corbin Cabin Cutoff Trail is quite steep, with nearly 1000 feet of elevation gain in 1.4 miles, an average grade of 12%, and a maximum grade of 31% in some places.  I managed to get back to the car in time before the rain began shortly after 12, but two of my fellow-hikers were less fortunate.  But the hike itself was worth doing; it may be accounted the first hike I’ve been able to do in the midst of autumn foliage, which is beginning to display its full colors at long last.  The lack of cool weather during September has inhibited the leaf coloring up to this point.  From the Little Stony Man overlook, especially, were extensive views of the various colors of the leaves of the trees in the forest below.

Ted Cruz has just pleaded guilty to the murder of 17 students and staff at a high school in Florida – no, scratch that.  The person in question is Nikolas Cruz, who was 19 years old and an expelled student at the time of the 2018 massacre; it came into my head, however, and I am sure I do not know how I happened to think of it – but it came into my head to wonder whether there was a connection between the two.  The enterprising behavior of the latter during the events that led up to the January 6^th riot may perhaps have something to do with it.

I can almost feel sorry for Glenn Youngkin.  He needs the aid of the Trump faction to win the gubernatorial election and he cannot risk giving an excuse for Trump to turn on him during the final weeks of the race.  But he also cannot afford to be too closely aligned with Trump, who is widely disliked, indeed loathed, in the suburbs of both Washington and Richmond, which are critical swaths among the Virginia voters.  At this point he is on tenterhooks as to whether Trump plans to hold a rally in Virginia; if he does, the vote will almost certainly swing to McAuliffe.  Trump, as many candidates are beginning to realize, is a very dangerous ally.

Another sad tale, one of the many that this pandemic is fueling:  Misty Mitchum, aged 46, died from COVID on September 23^rd.  Her husband Kevin, aged 48, was admitted to the hospital on the day of his wife’s death and he also lost the battle with the virus on October 8^th.  They leave five children behind, ranging in age from 11 to 22.  Neither of them would receive the vaccine, but according to Mike Mitchum, Kevin’s brother, Kevin expressed regret for not doing so once he became ill.  “Part of our pain is anger,” Mike said about himself and other grieving relatives. “Anger because people are still not getting the vaccine. If you think about it, you need to have certain vaccines before you can even go to school. What’s the big deal about this one?”

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 241,147,057; # of deaths worldwide: 4,909,548; # of cases U.S.: 45,773,318; # of deaths; U.S.: 744,381.

Continued suspended animation – A depressing political conversation – Evening statistics

We continue to remain in limbo.  The numbers of new infections and deaths may be slowing, but they are still high:  more than 87,000 new cases today and nearly 1700 deaths.  Yet the stores I visit no longer have waiting lines to get in, people are becoming more careless about wearing masks, and in general everyone seems to be acting on the assumption that the virus is less of a threat than it had been in the past.  It is true that this region is relatively less afflicted.  Maryland, Virginia, and the District of Columbia rank 46^th, 43^rd, and 47^th respectively in the list of states with new cases and 36^th, 40^th, and 37^th in state mortality rates.   Maryland has fully vaccinated over 65% of its population (it ranks 7^th on the list of states by percentage of fully vaccinated population) and Virginia and DC each has fully vaccinated nearly 62%, tieing for 13^th and 14^th place. 

I had a rather curious conversation yesterday with JN, my friend in New Jersey who has voted Democratic all of his list but is becoming increasingly disaffected by the Democratic Party.  I, on the other hand, though an independent, tended to vote Republican more frequently in the past than Democratic – until the advent of Trump, which promptly extinguished any affiliation I may have felt for that entity.  So for a while our exchange consisted of an ex-Republican denouncing the influence of Trump and the craven submission of the party leaders to him, while a disenchanted Democrat was decrying Biden’s incompetent handling of the withdrawal from Afghanistan and his strange irresponsibility in admitting thousands of illegal aliens over our southern border.  JN also spoke angrily of the Far Left’s attempt to denigrate everything that the nation has accomplished and cited, as an instance, the recent attempt by Bill de Blasio to remove the statue of Jefferson from New York’s City Hall.  (Yes, Thomas Jefferson’s character was very imperfect; yes, his conduct as a slave-owner was reprehensible.  But against this we must outweigh his outstanding achievements, including such pivotal ones as the Declaration of Independence and the Louisiana Purchase.)  We did, however, agree in lamenting that there is no political party at this point that is centrist.  The Democrats have fallen increasingly under the sway of the Far Left and the Republicans have become what some call a “zombie party,” having thoroughly jettisoned any kind of cohesive viewpoint in favor of fawning sycophancy for anything that Trump says or does.  Each of the parties has surrendered to a small, but exceedingly vocal minority, leaving the concerns of the vast majority of the populace by the wayside.  Even though we two were in basic agreement, it was a rather depressing conversation on the whole.

But it is difficult to remain depressed for long as preparations are made for a solid week of hiking in one of the loveliest areas of the state.  Burkes Garden, which I visited last year with several friends, beckons.  And I will be staying with the same set of friends and we will actually be in the same place we stayed last year, the wonderful rambling house that once served as the parsonage for the local church. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 240,796,671; # of deaths worldwide: 4,904,045; # of cases U.S.: 45,733,113; # of deaths; U.S.: 743,841.

Getting a flu shot – Visiting with friends – Ordering food online – The threat of Trump’s candidacy in 2024 – The “Great Resignation” – An ancient winery – Evening statistics

I received my flu shot yesterday at CVS.  The storefront displayed a notice that there might be a delay for walk-ins due to the demand, since they administered COVID booster shots as well, and recommended making an appointment.  I therefore entered the store with the intention of setting up a convenient date and time for the inoculation.  But the staff at the pharmacy told me that they were at leisure and could administer it immediately, so I received it without further delay.  Had I requested a COVID booster shot, it would have been available to me with equal expediency.  This scenario appears to reflect the national state of affairs:  the pace of people receiving vaccines has not accelerated, despite their newly authorized availability to children and the recommendation to receive boosters.  I plan to obtain my own booster in late November, eight months after my having received the second Pfizer shot.

Today I spent most of my time with DC and JC, joining them for breakfast and lunch, walking together to a local park, and examining the produce of their garden, which JC has tended assiduously and is now producing a great variety of vegetables and, to a lesser degree, of fruits:  cucumbers, tomatoes, okra, eggplant, persimmons, strawberries.  At one point a great quantity of starlings congregated in the large willow oak towering over the bamboo grove, while a lone mockingbird flew into the recesses of its branches, entertaining us with its range of calls.  It may be noted that most of this visit took place out of doors, although we did have lunch at a restaurant.  Part of this was due to personal preference; part, perhaps, out of an instinctive caution.  The three of us are all vaccinated and we have not had many encounters with crowds of people, but the impression remains that out of doors in the open air is still safer than remaining inside. 

We spoke about different reactions people have made in response to the pandemic.  I mentioned that I have known several people who have gotten their groceries by ordering from the stores or online, whereas I prefer to select the produce that I purchase in person.  But JC said that she has ordered produce from Amazon and that what she has received has been of good quality – and she is, as my account of her garden may indicate, rather meticulous in her standards on such matters.  So I may have to reconsider my stance if the pandemic surges upward again. 

We also expressed disappointment that the various lawsuits against Trump appear to have amounted to nothing.  It may be that we are unduly impatient.  Fani Willis has stated as recently as last month that the investigation of Trump’s attempt to overturn the election in Georgia by fraud is still ongoing.  Letitia James has also assured the public that the investigation into the murky financial undertakings of the Trump Organization is “alive and well.”  And of course the investigation by Congress into the role he played in the January 6^th riot has subpoenaed various officials of Trump’s administration.  But the pace of these is slow, agonizingly slow, and in the meantime he roams about, making speeches, organizing rallies, continuing to undermine public confidence in our nation’s election process, retaining his iron grip upon the Republican Party.  His candidacy in the 2024 is a virtual certainty, and his nomination is only too probable.  In 2016 he won only a plurality of GOP-primary voters, and faced nearly unanimous opposition within the Republican establishment. Now he has a solid bloc of voters slavishly devoted to him, no matter how contemptuously he treats them, and the most members of the Republican establishment are thoroughly intimidated by him. 

An unprecedented number of people have been resigning from their jobs, nearly 3% of workers in August alone.  Women workers are more likely to leave the workforce than men.  They are more likely to resign to undertake childcare responsibilities as schools struggle to re-open and daycare centers become increasingly expensive.  Women are also more likely to work in customer-facing jobs like restaurants and retail, industries that were hard-hit by the Delta variant this summer.  Employers among the industries of personal care/home health, nursing, child care, and driving and transportation are all urgently seeking new employees.  Burnout is also an issue:  in the health care industry, in particular, many have quitted their positions on account of the stress that they have undergone during the pandemic. 

But there is pleasanter news to record on the archaeological front.  An ancient winery has been discovered in the city of Yavne, Israel.  Yavne is a city with a long history, with remains of fortifications going back to the Bronze Ages.  The winery itself is from a much later era – specifically, from the Byzantine period.  It is approximately 1500 years old.  It is a massive complex of winepresses whose aggregate capacity may have been as much as one half-million gallons of wine annually.  The winery is believed to have been in operation for about 200 years, exporting wines throughout the Mediterranean from ports in Ashkelon and Gaza.  Wine was widely consumed during that era, by children as well as by adults, since filtering techniques at that time were primitive and the water, in addition to being somewhat risky to drink, had an unpleasant taste. 

Yesterday’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 239,426,572; # of deaths worldwide: 4,880,411; # of cases U.S.: 45,411,720; # of deaths; U.S.: 737,274.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 239,897,844; # of deaths worldwide: 4,888,533; # of cases U.S.: 45,543,730; # of deaths; U.S.: 739,715.

The sad case of Keith McCants – The opioid crisis during the pandemic – Autumn foliage – Evening statistics

Keith McCants played professional football from 1990 to 1995, for a total of 88 games in his career.  After he left the NFL he became the first black marine police officer for the state of Alabama, working for the Department of Conservation and Natural resources.  But as a result of the painkillers doled out to him by various coaches during his NFL years, he became addicted to opioids, an addiction that led to the dwindling of the wealth he had acquired as a celebrity player and eventually to his living on the streets for two years, as well as some months in prison, during which at one point he attempted to hang himself.  He had made strenuous attempts to overcome his addiction, seeking professional help on numerous occasions, but to no avail; he died of an overdose this past Thursday at the age of 53.

McCants is one of the many victims of the rising toll of opioid addiction.  In 2019 the number of opioid overdoses was just short of 50,000; this past year the number was 93,000.  The COVID pandemic has exacerbated the situation.  In particular, the supply chains for fentanyl, an extremely potent synthetic opioid, have been interrupted, and authentic drugs have been replaced with deadlier synthetics.  Moreover, the pandemic has cut people off from churches, cultural centers, and family events that provide social support to combat such addictions. 

The American medical profession is far from guiltless in this sorry state of affairs.  It has prescribed painkillers with reckless abandon.  I can remember an incident in which I bruised a rib in an accident and went to the hospital to have it X-rayed.  The X-ray verified that there was no fracture and that only soft tissue had been affected.  I felt a certain amount of pain and some constriction in the chest that would restrict physical exertion for a time because breathing heavily increased the discomfort.  I was told that it would take several days for this condition to subside.  The course that was indicated, I therefore assumed, was to put with the pain until it diminished and to refrain from activities that aggravated it during the interim.  To my astonishment, however, the physician who examined me asked if I needed him to write out a prescription for Vicodin – a suggestion that I turned down with what may have been, in his estimation, an overly brusque display of speed and decision.  He meant well, but I was not pleased to be offered such a treatment when it seemed quite unwarranted.  I would, I suppose, resort to opioids to cope with pain that was severe and long-lasting, but they seemed to me (and still do) thoroughly inappropriate for a condition as limited and temporary as this one.  I am told that initially some medical experts were taken by surprise by the addictive properties of synthetic opioids when they were first developed; which seems odd to me, considering that the addictive properties of opium itself – which after all is the substance that these drugs are supposed to emulate – have been thoroughly documented for over 5,000 years.  

On a somewhat more pleasing note, the foliage is beginning to change color at last.  The previous month has been warmer than usual, and as a rate the transformation of the leaves to russet and scarlet and golden-yellow has been delayed; but the cooler nights of this past week are beginning to have their effect and the leaves of the maples are now fringed with scarlet on the edges.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 238,994,058; # of deaths worldwide: 4,872,270; # of cases U.S.: 45,298,560; # of deaths; U.S.: 734,476.

A hike of significance – Unwanted advice – SNL on the Senate – Hopeful prediction with regard to COVID – Evening statistics

The weather was damp and even wet at times today, but I went out nonetheless with AD, RH, and JK on the Trico Fire Road Loop, about 8½ miles, with 1900 feet of elevation gain.  It was misty throughout, but not unpleasantly so, and at times the sky above was not quite overcast – not at all gray but white, with a kind of subdued luminousness perceptible behind the cloud cover.  Although in appearance the hike was of the same format as many others I have done over the past several months that AD and RH have organized, this one had a special significance.  This weekend provided the first official hikes under Wanderbirds auspices since they had been suspended in March, 2020.  The club will be leading hikes every weekend now (I will be leading one myself in November), and at long last the club, having remained dormant for nineteen months, has come to life again.  Eventually, as the pandemic recedes, the club will revert to using a chartered bus again, but even in this abbreviated format its return is very welcome.

The Mayo Clinic has issued a warning for seniors over 65 to avoid soft cheeses such as Brie, camembert, and so on.  I am reminded of the incident in which Queen Elizabeth I of England was rebuked by a bishop for her love of finery, to which she promptly retorted that he was not to mention the subject again, lest he reach Heaven before his time.  I am generally amenable to medical advice from a reputable source; but If the good doctors at the Mayo Clinic wish to preserve their health, they will do well not to separate me from my cheeses. 

The recent case of a whistleblower accusing Facebook of having gotten out of control as a result of its determination to extract the maximum amount of profit from its customers has inspired a Saturday Night Live sketch in which Frances Haugen, the aforesaid whistleblower (played by Heidi Gartner) is interrogated by various senators.  The sketch turns out to be not so much a parody of the Facebook case as of the U. S. Senate.  The senators, as played by various SNL cast members, display a staggering lack of knowledge of social media, a reflection of the fact that our current Senate is by far the oldest in American history.  It echoes, in short, an impression of my own that has been repeated in many entries, that both parties are showing signs of exhaustion and that its most prominent representatives are now frozen into their position, having had no experience of any profession outside of politics for their entire lives – mandarins, as I call them.

A hopeful note was sounded recently by Dr. Scott Gottlieb, the former commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, who says that the U.S. may reach 90% immunity by the end of Thanksgiving.  At this point 66% of the population 12 years or older are fully vaccinated, while an additional 35 million (more than 10% of the population) have contracted the virus and have recovered, thereby acquiring antibodies.  Now that vaccines have been authorized on an EUA basis for children, the pace of vaccinations is increasing.  “I don’t think we’re going to reach true herd immunity where this just disappears,” he added, “but it’s certainly not going spread at the kind of levels we’re seeing right now.  The prevalence will decline.”

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 238,624,744; # of deaths worldwide: 4,866,866; # of cases U.S.: 45,201,382; # of deaths; U.S.: 733,568.

Hiking to Buzzard Rock – Visit to Ocean City, NJ – The Trumpster rallies in Iowa – His disturbing cult of personality – The faltering investigation into the January 6^th riot – Brazil’s new milestone – An anti-vaxxer demonstration backfires – Vaccinations and the homeless – Evening statistics

This past Tuesday I went with the Vigorous Hikers on a hike that started from Brunswick, crossing the Potomac and continuing westward along the bank and eventually up the ridgeline to Buzzard Rock.  From there we came down to the Harpers Ferry Adventure Center and returned by way of the C&O Canal.  The results were rather a mixture.  Some were quite pleased with the hike; others were disconcerted by the bushwhack it entailed.  I should have vetted the hike description more carefully, so as to warn those who signed up that the bushwhack was long and arduous.  Originally the hike was intended to continue with another bushwhack to Split Rock and from there to Loudoun Heights, but I persuaded RS, the hike leader, to cut the hike short and cross the Potomac back to Maryland via the Rte. 340 bridge.  As it was, the hike was between 16 and 17 miles; the excursion to Loudoun Heights would have added between 4 and 5 miles more.  But we had splendid views from Buzzard Rock and the return along the C&O canal was a good way to wind down after clambering up and down along the steep slope of the ridgeline along the Virginia bank.

Then from Wednesday to this morning I visited JF, my friend in Ocean City, NJ.  JF is not a devotee of mountain trails, but on city streets he is an excellent walker, and we covered over 40 miles in three days. 

On Wednesday we went to Cape May, spending less time in the city itself and more on the beach along the bay, digging for so-called “Cape May diamonds.”  These are actually bits of transparent quartz that are washed down by the Delaware River into the bay.  They can be cut and polished to resemble diamonds, although they are of course much less valuable ($8 per carat at the most).  Afterwards I went up to the top of the lighthouse and then we both went to the park area and the Nature Conservancy to see the various points used for bird-watching.  One portion of the bay had a large number of trumpeter swans, and we saw egrets, herons, and sandpipers as well.  Afterwards we dined at an Irish pub in the main shopping center of the city and spent part of the evening, upon our return, walking the Ocean City boardwalk (2½ miles each way, or 5 miles total). 

Then on Thursday we went to Princeton.  The town itself is pleasant and interesting, but the focal point of any visit to the city must be the university itself.  As a graduate student, I went to the University of Pennsylvania, which is one of the universities designated as “Ivy League”; but its campus is not very distinctive – certainly not worth a visit on its own account.  Princeton, on the other hand, is well worth seeing:  reminiscent of the campuses of Oxford and Cambridge, with imposing architecture, numerous “quads,” shaded walks bordered with flowers:  a poster child, in short, for what is called “higher education.”  From there we went to a very different venue, namely, the flea market at Columbus:  a vast array of outdoor stalls proffering all sorts of merchandise at cut-rate prices:  clothing, artwork, outdoor sports equipment, furniture, house decorations, and so on.  The facility included a building rather like a warehouse, where vendors sold various produce.  Even though I had not intended to buy anything, I wound up purchasing sundry articles such as sneakers, a ski-cap, and a pair of sunglasses, as well as a basket of ripe plums.  The plums in the supermarkets are all but tasteless, and as it has been some time since I’ve tasted a truly ripe plum, I could not resist when I saw them.

Friday was a relatively relaxed day, but we took in the boardwalk at Sea Isle (1½ miles each way, or 3 miles round trip) and went to Cold Spring Village, an open-air museum consisting of 27 historic buildings, some of them listed on the National Register of Historic Places.  It is a re-created New Jersey town of the Colonial era, with various buildings (blacksmith, poultry house, inn, residual houses, barns, etc.) provided with various furnishings from that period.  Then we lunched in Stone Harbor, the most upscale of the beach communities in South Jersey, with several elegant restaurants to choose from even in the off-season.  The lunch we had turned out to be so elaborate that we needed no more than a mere snack for the evening meal.  We visited the Ocean City museum on our return.  Even the museum occupies no more than a large room at the community center, it contained a surprising amount of information.  Among other things, it mentioned that Grace Kelly’s family had a summer home in the city and that she spent many of her summers there while growing up.  This information impelled JF and I to see the house owned by the Kelly family.  It is by far the most elaborate in the city, built in the Spanish Mission Revival style.  Curiously, the building has no plaque indicating that she had resided there, so it is quite easy for the casual tourist to pass it by without realizing its significance.  She retained her connection with Ocean City during her movie career and after her marriage to Prince Rainier, visiting it frequently, swimming on the beach and strolling along the boardwalk.  She would come with other members of the royal family to spend as much as two weeks in the year there, generally at the time of the annual Labor Day barbecue. 

Afterwards we had a light dinner and, since it was still early, we then walked along the main street to the center of the city and returned via the boardwalk.  Both Asbury Avenue, the main street, and the boardwalk were busier than I would have expected for the off-season.  It is still the aftermath of the influx of visitors during the Labor Day weekend, of course, and these areas of the city will undoubtedly become much quieter as the season advances into winter.

In many of the stores both customers and vendors wore no masks.  Both JF, who works for a nursing home facility, and I were more cautious:  we wore masks whenever we went inside of a store or a restaurant.  However, the situation was different than it had been in Idaho during my excursion there earlier last month.  New Jersey has a high rate of vaccination and a correspondingly high rate of availability of ICU beds.  At this point 45% of the state’s ICU beds are occupied – not an insignificant number, it is true, but much better than the complete absence of ICU beds that prevailed during the time that I was visiting Idaho. 

The visit, like all good things, had to come to an end; and today I drove back home to cope with the mail that piled up during my absence (both snail mail and Email), shopped for groceries, mowed the lawn, and went on various other errands. 

Donald Trump is now no longer on Forbes’ list of the nation’s richest people.  At this point he has a mere two-and-a-half billion to cover his nakedness.  And, most appropriately, a considerable amount of the reduction in his fortunes is due to the pandemic he treated so cavalierly.  Much of his wealth comes from big-city properties; and as urban businesses and tourism were adversely affected by the pandemic, his properties fell dramatically in value.  This is an encouraging development, but it is far from sufficient.  The only way he can be prevented from inflicting even greater damage than what he has already done is to separate him from his money – preferably as a result of large financial penalties imposed by various lawsuits should they ever be decided against him, but perhaps Melania will perform some genuine public service for once by divorcing him and exacting an exorbitant amount of alimony and child support as part of the settlement.  Whether he will be unable to inflict more harm on our electoral system once he is impoverished is uncertain, but he most assuredly cannot be prevented from exercising his baneful influence under any other set of circumstances.

I know that at times I seem unhealthily obsessed with Trump, but to my mind he represents a great danger to our nation.  He is doing his utmost to undermine public confidence in our electoral system, and I regret to say that he is succeeding.  Today he held a rally in Des Moines, IA, signaling that he intends to run for Presidential office again in 2024.  The large turnout indicates that he has a good chance of securing the nomination.  And he is continually hammering on his claim that he was defrauded by the 2020 election, with evident effect.  “I feel in my heart that there was a lot of cheating going on,” one observer said, and this man seems to be voicing the view of a large percentage of the Republican base.  Fifty-three percent of Iowans hold a favorable view of the former president and only 45% hold an unfavorable view, according to a Des Moines Register/Mediacom survey released on Monday. Among Republicans only, he retains a favorability rating of 91%.  The parallels with Mussolini’s growing hold on the populace and the cult of personality that fuels it are marked, and I sometimes wonder whether Trump is deliberately emulating Mussolini’s career path.    

It is doubtful that the current investigation by Congress concerning the January 6^th riot will amount to much.  Trump has openly told the members of his staff who have been subpoenaed to disregard these summonses, and at least one of them, Steve Bannon, has followed his advice.  To do Bannon justice, I doubt whether he needed Trump’s incitement to brush aside the law.  It just comes naturally to him.  He could, of course, be held for contempt of court; but he has already once ignored a subpoena during the 2018 investigation by a House Intelligence Committee; and while the Democrats considered holding him in contempt for his refusal to comply, they ultimately declined to do so.  I cannot see that their resolution has increased during the interval.  They will wring their hands and make a few feeble plaints about how unbecoming such behavior is, and then they will end up by doing nothing.

In the meantime, Brazil has achieved a thoroughly undesirable milestone:  its death toll from COVID has exceeded 600, 000, just under 0.3% of its population (about 1 death per 350).   Bolsonaro, who has boasted about his unvaccinated status in the past, was forced to isolate shortly after attending the United Nations General Assembly in September after he and one of his aides tested positive for coronavirus.  Now he is urging those who are vaccinated to throw aside their masks, “because if they are vaccinated, there is no way the virus can be transmitted.”  Whatever one might think about the scientific basis of such reassurances, they are for the most part irrelevant in any case:  at this point only 12% of Brazil’s population is fully vaccinated.

One scene in the never-ending drama of the protests of the anti-vaxxers was enacted this past Thursday that, I think I am safe in saying, could not have occurred in any country except our own.  In Los Angeles on Hollywood Boulevard, a group of anti-vaccine protesters were carrying picket signs and American flags.  “Do you see all of these homeless people around?” the lead protester yelled through a bullhorn. “Are they dead in the streets with COVID? Hell no! Why?”  Whereupon a man pushing a shopping cart down the street provided the following response:  “Because I’m vaccinated, you dumb fuck!” 

Vaccinations, as it turns out, have been widely available for the homeless; and as the man’s reaction indicates, they have not been slow in taking advantage of the opportunity.  In Los Angeles the Housing for Health unit of the city’s Department of Health Services has managed to inoculate 75% of the homeless population.  That is a higher percentage than the Republicans in the same community can claim. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 238,327,262; # of deaths worldwide: 4,862,309; # of cases U.S.: 45,179,038; # of deaths; U.S.: 733,057.

The Lost Mountain hike – Lunch at a winery – Slight progress on the lawsuits against Trump – New Zealand unable to contain the virus – Declining cases and hospitalizations in the U.S. – Evening statistics

Today I went with LM and four others on a winery hike, doing 7½ miles that went over Lost Mountain in Sky Meadows State Park.  We went on the loop that goes up and down the mountain in the counter-clockwise direction, the first time that I had done so.  We all agreed that this is the preferable route:  it provides a steep ascent first and a gradual downhill towards the end, and the descent provides a better angle for the views of the meadows below.  (If one goes uphill in that direction one has to look continually over one’s shoulder to see the same views.)  It was very warm today, and humid as well; it was pleasant in the shaded areas and occasionally breezes moderated the heat in the ones exposed to direct sun, but it was surprising how tired we were at the end of such a short hike. 

The visit to the winery provided a welcome restorative.  We went to the Blue Valley winery in the vicinity of Delaplane, purchased a few bottles, and lunched rather elaborately on various contributions from the group while sitting on the terrace, with its wide-ranging views of the valley and of the ridgeline of the Blue Ridge Mountains, along which the Appalachian Trail wends its way.  Not many people were present, since it was a weekday and well past Labor Day.  We thus had our choice of seats and we were able to find a table almost completely in the shade, where we sat and ate in comfort. 

We had deplored, in the parking area of Sky Meadows just before departing for the winery, the manner in which the various lawsuits against Trump seem to have made no progress.  But this very evening provided a tiny bit of encouragement.  A judge has ruled that Trump can be deposed in the lawsuit brought against him by Summer Zervos, who has sued Trump for calling her allegations of his groping and harassment of her as “lies” and “a hoax.”   If he can be maneuvered into courtrooms in which he is bound to make a public spectacle of himself, there is at least a chance that the members of the Trump faction less emotionally dependent on their idol than the majority will turn away from this strange false god in high places. 

New Zealand has been forced to admit that it is impossible to contain the COVID virus within its borders, despite a rigorous lockdown policy.  One should not exaggerate the extent of the virus there:  in a country of over 5 million people, there have been only 27 deaths, while less than 0.1% of the population have been infected.  But the country has been fairly slow to receive vaccinations, with only 40% of the population fully vaccinated, although 65% have received a single dose.

In the U.S. 56% of the population are fully vaccinated.  Case rates and hospitalizations are going down.  A week ago the daily average of new cases and new hospitalizations were 112,311 and 77,983 respectively; this week they are 86,801 and 64,217.  The reductions are substantial, but, as the figures indicate, we have a long way to go.  The following states have more than 60% of the population fully vaccinated:  Vermont, Connecticut, Maine, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Maryland, New York, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Washington, Oregon, Virginia, and the District of Columbia.  Deaths have also been declining; today’s death toll was less than 500, while in the past it was close to 2,000. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 236,098,583; # of deaths worldwide: 4,821,206; # of cases U.S.: 44,640,564; # of deaths; U.S.: 721,317.

Hiking in the ACLT – The Wanderbirds begins its restoration – The hospital situation begins to moderate but is still stressed – A music radio station that provides its own interruptions – Evening statistics

I went with AD and others to hike in the American Chestnut Land Trust, whose nearly rock-free paths felt very good to the feet after going over the stony trail between Keys Gap and Loudoun Heights.  It was somewhat warmer today than yesterday, and although the park is well-shaded, our hike included one section that passed under electric cables and was completely exposed.  But we were in luck:  a steady breeze was blowing when we passed upon it, and at no time did we become uncomfortably hot.  The views of Parker Creek were beautiful, its gray-green waters reflecting the sunlight under a canopy of oak and hickory trees, one of the few old growth forests in the state.  Despite the pleasant weather, we saw surprisingly few hikers besides ourselves:  only a handful on the portion of the Parker Creek Loop that descends from the parking area to the creek in about ½ mile and hardly anyone on the Prince Frederick to Bay Trail. 

AD told us that the Wanderbirds will be starting to conduct official hikes soon, starting on the following weekend.  These will be trailhead hikes, each hike conducted by two leaders and with a maximum number of hikers capped at a figure from 10 to 25, depending on the leaders’ preference.  Hikers will be confined to club members.  It is now over a year and a half since the club has sponsored hikes, so it is gratifying to know that club activities will be re-activated even to this limited degree.  Hikes will take place both on Saturdays and Sundays, but hikers will be requested to select only one hike per weekend in order to provide an opportunity for as many club members as possible to participate in club hikes.  Perhaps, as the pandemic recedes, we will able to resume bus hikes again, but at present it is idle to speculate as to when that might occur. 

The number of hospitalizations is going down, but the virus is too prevalent to declare it merely endemic. Nearly 56% of the total US population, or about 65% of those ages 12 and up who are eligible, are fully vaccinated.  But fifteen states have not yet fully vaccinated more than half of their residents: Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, West Virginia and Wyoming.  Four states are currently using more than 40% of their hospital ICU beds for COVID patients:  Idaho, Wyoming, West Virginia, and Georgia. 

“Music like this raises the spirit.”  Such were the words I heard on the radio, spoken over the music actually being played at the time, and eventually extinguishing it.  WETA, the music station in question, appears to have hit upon a foolproof method of depressing the spirits after they have been raised, by breaking off the pieces being aired in order to give their announcers the opportunity to sprout bromides such as these.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 235,683,841; # of deaths worldwide: 4,815,130; # of cases U.S.: 44,515,364; # of deaths; U.S.: 719,925.

On the Loudoun Heights Trail – COVID claims a centigenarian – The effect of COVID on bird species – Grisham’s new book – Evening statistics

Today I repeated the hike on the Loudoun Heights Trail that I did with AD and others in late July.  There was a large group of us on today, 13 in all – not surprising, for the day was lovely:  clear skies, low humidity, comfortable temperatures.  At the junction between the Appalachian Trail and the Loudoun Heights Trail I encountered a group of boy scouts with two women who were providing a bit of training.  The boys were deciding which route they were expected to take and the two trainers maintained an impassive reserve, forcing them to choose the correct route on their own.  I was a little apprehensive that they would more or less take possession of Split Rock before our group could reach it, but I was mistaken.  In the first place, they paused again when the Loudoun Heights Trail reached the ridgeline, thereby enabling our group to arrive first; and when they did come to Split Rock they approached so quietly and kept their voices so low while they were lunching there that I was not aware of their presence for some time after they arrived.  The views from Split Rock of Harpers Ferry, the pedestrian bridge, the confluence of the Potomac and the Shenandoah, Maryland Heights, and the C&O towpath were enlivened by sightings of pedestrians on the bridge, the overlook, and the towpath and by rafters sliding over the rapids of the river.

Primetta Giacopini, who was 2 years old during the 1918 influenza epidemic, has died at the age of 105 of COVID.  Her mother was one of the influenza epidemic victims, and her father, unwilling to bring up his children on his own, gave Primetta to the care of a foster family in Italy, which eventually moved to Italy in 1929.  Since she was still an American citizen, her situation became precarious as Mussolini gained power and allied himself with Hitler, and she was eventually able to flee to the U.S.  There she worked at a General Motors plant in Bristol grinding steel to cover ball bearings for the war effort.  She met her husband on the job, and they remained married until his death in 2002.  She appears to have received the infection from her caretaker, whose husband contracted COVID after attending a wedding in Idaho.  All three had been vaccinated, but of course the immune system is more susceptible when one is past 100 years of age.  It is sadly ironic that one who survived a global pandemic when just out of her infancy should has died as a result of another pandemic more than a century later.

Birds have been indirectly affected by the pandemic.  The decrease in vehicular traffic and airplane travel has resulted in a substantial increase in 80% of the 82 species studied by a joint effort between the University of Manitoba and the Cornell Lab of Ornithology.  The study examined records of around 4.3 million birds between the months of March and May in the years 2017 through 2020.  Bald eagle sightings increased in cities with the strongest lockdowns, and red-throated hummingbirds were three times as likely to be within two-thirds of a mile of an airport.  Red-tailed hawks, interestingly enough, declined in numbers; the decrease in vehicle traffic has led to significantly less roadkill, which is one of their main sources of food. 

A new book by Stephanie Grisham, one of Trump’s press secretaries, is to be published next week, and extracts have been confided to various reporters, who re-confided them to the public at large.  Predictably, readers are exclaiming over the “revelations” of the non-stop dishonesty that was characteristic of the previous administration; whereas in my view revealing that Trump is dishonest is like “revealing” that Virginia is one of the fifty states of the nation.  Some details, admittedly, are new:  for example, that his visit in 2019 to Walter Reed Hospital, which was shrouded in secrecy and gave rise to all sorts of wild conjectures of possible ailments, was simply to have a routine colonoscopy and that he insisted on this elaborate concealment because he was afraid of the jokes from comics on late-night TV that might ensue if this information were disclosed.   Grisham is showing some humor in her tell-all account:  famous as the press secretary who never held a press conference, she has entitled her book “Now I Will Take Your Questions.”

Yesterday’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 235,018,908; # of deaths worldwide: 4,804,849; # of cases U.S.: 44,427,437; # of deaths; U.S.: 718,870.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 235,392,978; # of deaths worldwide: 4,810,796; # of cases U.S.: 44,490,464; # of deaths; U.S.: 719,674.