Nicholson Hollow and Old Rag – The difficulty of making travel plans – Encouraging statistics from the WHO – A precautionary test – “Constitution? What constitution?” – Evening statistics
Great news! I called Shenandoah National Park to ask about the Nicholson Hollow Trail, which is accessed from the same parking lot as Old Rag. I was told that one will need permits only for the three trails that go over Old Rag, not for the parking area itself. Hikes that use Nicholson Hollow as a starting point will not be affected – and there are a great number of these, since the Nicholson Hollow Trail intersects several other trails within the park and one can create literally dozens of circuit hikes with the trail as its basis. SNP told me that they had sent an answer to my Email on the subject some weeks ago, but it must have been shunted to my spam folder.
The precaution about Old Rag is well-advised, for by now it is greatly overused. I never go there on weekends, when it can get nearly as congested as Disneyland. And going to Old Rag is not something that I do on the spur of the moment. It takes me about 1½ hours to get to the parking area, so I would have to plan in advance to hike there in any case. Getting a permit in advance merely adds another step to the planning process.
I had a rather melancholy conversation with HC this evening. She was in great perplexity about plans to travel internationally during the spring and asked me for advice on the matter. It seems that some of my acquaintance are regarding me as an authority on the subject, although I certainly have no such pretension. I do, as the journal exemplifies, try to keep abreast with statistics concerning the COVID virus. My view of the situation is rather like that of Sherlock Holmes: “Data! data! data!” he cried impatiently. “I can’t make bricks without clay.” Alas, in the current instance I fear I was not of much use. I said that I myself was planning to travel during May and June to other countries and was reasonably optimistic about these trips, since the virus appears to be declining at this stage. But I added that there was the possibility of a new variant emerging and expanding to the point of prolonging the pandemic still further, and that I had to show flexibility and be prepared to lose some or all of the money I had paid in advance if these plans should be disrupted. It was a very indecisive variety of advice, but what else could I say?
Speaking of data: COVID case counts have fallen by 17% worldwide over the last week, including a 50% decline in the United States. However, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, head of the World Health Organization, has said that “COVID isn’t finished with us.” The WHO reported more than 19 million new COVID-19 cases and just under 68,000 new deaths from Jan. 31 to Feb. 6. It will be seen that the mortality rate is much lower than it has been with previous variants. Nonetheless, in the eastern Mediterranean region (including countries such as Afghanistan, Iran and Jordan) cases rose by 36%. And poorer countries have not been able to access vaccines to the extent that richer ones have done. In the continent of Africa, only 8% of the population has been vaccinated. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said that rich countries have administered 14 times more doses of life-saving vaccines and carried out 80 times more tests than have low-income countries.
One of the friends with whom I was sitting together in a winery last week has tested positive for COVID, experiencing only mild symptoms but going into quarantine nonetheless. Those who sat with her, including myself, have gotten tested. In my case I got tested today and I will get the results in 2-3 days. To tell the truth, I am not particularly concerned on my own behalf. Indoor contact with others after this episode has been minimal – various excursions to stores, in which I always wear a facemask. It has already been nine days since the encounter; and only yesterday I went on a hike that was 17 miles long, with 4000 feet of elevation gain, a fairly challenging bushwhack, and an arduous ascent along one trail (the Indian Run Trail) covered with old snow in which one’s foot sank with every step. It seemed to me that I was not tackling the hike with less energy than usual. It is true that the period of potential incubation has not yet run to the end of its course, but surely if I had contracted it I would feel some loss of energy by now? However, as I say, I am far from being an expert on such matters.
Huntington High School, of Huntington, WV, has included a curious addition to its curriculum. Between calculus and European history classes, the students were led to the auditorium for a Christian evangelical revival assembly. There they were instructed to close their eyes and raise their arms in prayer. After that they were told to give their lives over to Jesus to find purpose and salvation. Those who did not follow the Bible would go to hell when they died. Afterwards Cameron Mays, one of the students coerced in this fashion, sent a text to his father, asking “Is this legal?”
The answer, of course, is no. This ceremony took place in direct opposition to the provisions of the U.S. constitution. Jedd Flowers, the Cabell County Schools spokesmen, said afterwards that the event was voluntary and that there was supposed to be a sign-up sheet for the students interested in attending it, but that two of the teachers misunderstood and directed their entire class to attend, regardless of their inclinations. I doubt very much that the organizers won any converts by such high-handed methods. More than 100 of the students staged a walkout today from their homerooms in protest.
Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 403,436,956; # of deaths worldwide: 5,794,633; # of cases U.S.: 78,815,753; # of deaths; U.S.: 935,748.