Month: March 2022

Making a mark in the hiking community of the area – The U.K. moving towards the endemic stage – Endemic is not synonymous with mild – Evening statistics

Today I received the new edition of “Hikes in Western Maryland,” for which I myself did some exploration upon the Savage River Trail the previous July.  It contained an insert of a pleasant note of acknowledgement for my efforts from the PATC Publications Committee head.  I am also listed in the Introduction as one of the numerous volunteer hikers who verified and updated the trail descriptions in this edition.  Thus in my own small way I have made a contribution to the hiking community at large in the area, first by participating in the efforts to produce this edition and also by my working with the Potomac Heritage Trail Association, particularly in aiding RS to carve out new trails in order to fill in the gaps currently existing in the PHT.  All of which has given me a new appreciation of the effort involved in plotting trails over huge distances and then producing guidebooks and maps to navigate them, trails and guides which in earlier days I took more or less for granted. 

The U.K. appears to be on the verge of declaring COVID to be in the endemic stage, at any rate as far as within its own borders is concerned.  Free COVID testing will no longer be available after the 31^st, except for certain groups who are considered vulnerable, and the government has cut funding to several COVID surveillance programs.  But even if COVID becomes genuinely endemic, i.e., with case numbers constant across the population without any rapid surges or falls, “endemic” does not necessarily imply low severity.  “You get the impression that people are using endemic now to mean that it is a mild infection,” said Professor Paul Hunter, an expert in infectious diseases at the University of East Anglia. “That is not implied in the term endemicity.  Malaria is an endemic disease and that kills hundreds of thousands of children each year.  Nobody would say it is mild.”

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  482,800,117; # of deaths worldwide: 6,150,938; # of cases U.S.: 81,644,016; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,003,950. 

The Workhouse and Occoquan Regional Park – American women suffrage – Brooks turns on Trump – The evanescent quality of Biden’s courage – Why some people have escaped COVID – A long-deferred diploma – Evening statistics

RS led a hike from the Workhouse, a former prison that was shut down in 2001 and then converted, somewhat improbably, to a collection of art studios.  The facility was notable in its time, for several reasons.  When it was first created during the administration of Theodore Roosevelt, it was unusual in that it concentrated on rehabilitation.  The prison contained some acreage that the prisoners worked to raise food for themselves and several worked at other handicrafts in addition, which in some cases served them well once they were released.  On the other hand, it was the prison selected for punishing the suffragettes who protested at the White House during Woodrow Wilson’s administration – and when I say “punishment,” I am not exaggerating.  The prisoners were force-fed, beaten, and abused in the most shameless fashion, even though their offense was ostensibly the minor one of blocking city traffic.  One of the prisoners had her head bashed against a wall, causing her to become unconscious as a result of the concussion, and a second prisoner had a heart attack upon witnessing this assault, in the belief that her companion had actually been killed. 

There is a monument to the events that led to women suffrage in the neighboring Occoquan Regional Park, where one loop of the hike took us.  It was completed quite recently.   I was last there less than a year ago, and the monument was still under construction.  It contains a series of handsome panels outlining the course of events that led to women suffrage in this country – nineteen in all, to coincide with the 19^th Amendment that gave American women the right to vote. 

Indeed the park and its environs are still being developed; the second part of the hike went along an area that when RS and I for the most part bushwhacked when we were last there and which now has well-defined trails.  RS, in fact, plotted out the route of several of these, and he is good enough to say that my accompanying him on his exploratory excursions in this region has been of some use.

Mo Brooks has testified against Donald Trump, stating that Trump had urged him to overturn the 2020 election, including the months after President Biden took office.  This development is to some extent gratifying, marking the first time that a Trump ally has accused the latter of urging illegal actions in order to restore his presidency.  On the other hand, Brooks has maintained a discreet silence about his own conduct on January 6^th, 2021, when he exhorted the rabble – no, no (begging their pardon), the tourists – to undermine the certification of Biden’s win by any means possible.  Still, his admission may not be without its use.  John Eastman, Trump’s legal adviser, has challenged his subpoena from the investigating committee, on the grounds that he was providing legal advice based on his own interpretation of the Constitution in urging Mike Pence to halt the certification.  If Trump is ever forced to mount a legal defense on his own behalf, he is likely to plead along similar lines.  But Brooks’ allegations undermine such claims, since it shows that Trump had continued his campaign after leaving office and long after he could lay any claim to holding on to the White House. 

I have, regrettably, given Biden credit for more spine than he actually possesses.  After he said, with (as I thought) refreshing honesty, that Putin “no longer should remain in power,” he is now backpedaling.  When a reporter asked whether he was advocating a regime change, he simply said “No,” and various officials are anxiously assuring the public that he never even hinted at anything so shocking and improper.  “The U.S. does not have a policy of regime change in Russia,” said Julianne Smith, the U.S. ambassador to NATO. “Full stop.”  And it appears that it indeed is a full stop to any determined opposition on the part of the U.S. against this vicious and bloodthirsty tyrant intent on shattering the peace of the entire European continent.

Ma Sang-hyuk, a physician in South Korea, has provided an explanation of why some people have not yet caught COVID:  they have no friends.  “The adults who have not yet been infected with COVID-19 are those who have interpersonal problems,” he wrote on Facebook for his March 16^th entry – and then hastily deleted it after the amount of backlash it created.  South Korea is only slightly below the U.S. in infection rate – 23.0% as opposed to 24.4% — but that still means that over three-quarters of its population has managed to escape COVID to date.  It strains the imagination a bit to assume that all of them are living in complete isolation.  There are slightly more plausible theories as to why some have escaped the disease after it has been raging for more than two years:

1. The vaccines, use of facemasks, and social distancing have been effective preventatives, even if they are not perfect;
2. A significant number of the immunocompromised have indeed cut back on social interaction as a protective measure, thereby reducing the risks of spreading the infection among their associates;
3. Some people may have contracted the disease without symptoms and thus have not realized that they have been infected (one study suggests that as many as 43% of Americans have actually been infected, even though the official figure is barely over half that amount);
4. Household transmission, though it occurs frequently, is not inevitable, so that even if a member of a household comes down with the disease it does not mean that everyone else in the household will automatically become infected;
5. Some people are just lucky, I guess.  I like to think that I’m one of them.

I have phrased that last one rather facetiously, but in fact Dr. Kevin Dieckhaus, chief of infectious diseases at UConn Health in Connecticut, has said pretty much the same thing:  “There’s a lot of randomness to COVID.  There are people who seem to have minimal exposure who come down with it, and there are people who have heavy exposure who seem to do OK.”

Sometimes a sad story has a happy ending.  Merrill Pittman Cooper had attended Storer College from 1934 to 1938, at which point he was forced to drop out after his family moved away from Harpers Ferry to Philadelphia for financial reasons.  Storer College was founded just after the Civil War to provide black students with an opportunity for education and indeed was the only such resource for them in the entire state of West Virginia for many years – decades, in fact.  Eventually, as restrictions against black students moderated, the institution shut down in 1955.  One can hardly imagine a more beautiful setting for a school.  It is perched high on the hill overlooking the confluence of the Potomac and Shenandoah Rivers, as well as the lower part of Harpers Ferry itself.  I have been on its grounds many times, by means of a spur trail from the town that skirts through the former campus to the Appalachian Trail.  To return, however, to Cooper’s story:  He went on to complete a long and successful career in the transportation industry, eventually becoming union vice president.  Nonetheless, during a family visit to Harpers Ferry in 2018, he uttered some remarks to his relatives about the regret he felt in never having been able to obtain his high school diploma.  Whereupon his family reached out to park service members (Storer College is now part of Harpers Ferry National Park), and they in turn worked with local, regional, and state official partners to honor Cooper with a ceremony and diploma on March 19^th.  So just a few days ago, at the age of 101, he has acquired his diploma at long last.  A photo shows him proudly holding up his diploma for all the world to see, his features radiant with a joyousness that is impossible to forget or describe.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  481,859,155; # of deaths worldwide: 6,147,878; # of cases U.S.: 81,621,888; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,003,467. 

Oxon Cove and Oxon Hill Farm – The Capitol then and now – Biden’s surprising comment about Putin – Second booster is available, but is it needed? – Evening statistics

I went to Oxon Cove Park today, which contains the trailhead for an isolated segment of the Potomac Heritage Trail.  The idea was to determine whether the PHT can be extended and connected to other segments.  I found that it is possible, for it leads to a bike route that can be taken all the way to Anacostia.   From there, a number of routes lead to Georgetown, after which one can go over the Key Bridge to Roosevelt Island and resume the PHT from its parking area.  It must be admitted, however, that the bike route in question presents some difficulties; it runs through some rather drab neighborhoods around the border between Southeast DC and Prince Georges County – not unsafe, but not especially pleasant either.  The route I took skirted by Oxon Cove, a wide expanse of water over which one may view the eastern side of Washington in the distance.  I also went around Oxon Hill Farm, a complex whose earliest buildings date from the early 19^th century.  The farm contains the original manor, a brick stable (unusual for the time—most stables were built from wood), a root cellar that provided the equivalent of a modern-day refrigeration, and examples of 19^th-century farm implements.  The manor is a comfortably-sized house but not a stately mansion by any means.  There was a sobering note among the placards describing the life of the original family living there; even a relatively modest house was largely maintained by slave labor.  Samuel Welby, the original owner, left an estate of about $3225 (a fairly large sum for the time, but again, not enormous), and over three-quarters of its value was reckoned in the slaves attached to it.

Oxon Hill provided another cause for interest.  The house is situated on an eminence that overlooks the eastern edge of the capital and the original inhabitants were thus enabled to witness the Battle of Bladensburg during the War of 1812 from a distance.  One of the placards quoted a letter from Mrs. Welby writing to her relatives about the intense distress she felt upon seeing the Capitol in flames.  More than two centuries later, the Capitol again became a source of sympathetic anguish on account of its being besieged, and on this occasion the assailants were not an army of foreign invaders but our own countrymen.

Biden has said that Putin “cannot remain in power” during his visit to Poland.  That remark goes considerably further than anything he has said up to this point about the invasion, and one wonders about the extent it will commit our nation to participate more directly in the Ukrainian resistance than it has done up to this point.  It is not clear whether this statement was part of his prepared speech or was a reaction of spontaneous outrage.  Lviv, the closest major Ukrainian city to Poland, has witnessed several explosions from Russian attacks, and flames and billowing smoke are coming close to the Polish border.   I certainly have no quarrel with advocating Putin’s overthrow; but I would like to know how Biden plans to reach this goal.  The very least he can do, it seems to me, is to equip Ukraine with sophisticated fighter jets for the purpose of assailing the Russian invaders. 

Biden is also offering a free second booster to Americans 50 and older, with distribution beginning as early as next week.  Ordinarily I have little sympathy with the anti-vaxxers, but I can readily understand that sentiment that inspired one to respond “if you make it to 20 without dropping dead, you get that shiny toaster or a VCR.”  One can make a case for an annual booster, but not for getting one just a few months after receiving the first one.  The CDC has said that the Pfizer and Moderna boosters remain 78% effective at least five months after they are administered.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  480,839,751; # of deaths worldwide: 6,145,441; # of cases U.S.: 81,614,255; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,003,418. 

A day of pleasures – Mask mandates in schools – Slight increase in influenza cases – Evening statistics, with a caveat

Today was a good day, at any rate on a personal level.  I met with RK, whom I have not seen for months.  Our friendship has endured for decades, but she has had some health issues and as a result has been much more cautious than I have about during the past year about meeting with people indoors.  But the decrease in COVID infections has given her more confidence, so today we lunched together in Shirlington at a Thai restaurant of which we are both very fond and which has miraculously weathered the pandemic without any loss of quality or of reasonableness in price.  Afterwards we went to Mount Vernon, which I have not visited for years.  We lingered at the museum there, which is relatively new and which delves extensively into George Washington’s life and achievements.  The day was sufficiently warm to allow us to wander down to the old and new tombs and the wharf, as well as to the prominence behind the mansion to view the Potomac from above.  It was good to reconnect with her; in Samuel Johnson’s words, “Friendships must be kept in constant repair.” 

RK, as I have mentioned, is a teacher in a private school.  We discussed how the removal of mask mandates has affected her work.  For a time in the early stages of the pandemic she taught via webcamming, but she has been back to classes in person for well over a year by now.  Until recently both teachers and students were required to wear masks; now, of course, mask mandates have been removed.  Some still wear masks but many do not.  She continually wears masks herself while teaching, as indeed I would do in her place.  The risks of contracting COVID are lower than before, but why take unnecessary chances when being in close proximity with several dozen people five days per week and seven consecutive hours per day?  Free testing is available to staff and pupils alike on a weekly basis, but it is not mandatory; RK has friends in other private schools, in which weekly testing is supplied by the school and which all of its teachers and students are required to undergo. 

Incidentally, the rate of influenza has gone up as the mask mandates have been removed.  Overall this season, an estimated 3.1 million flu cases have been reported. There have been an estimated 1,800 flu-related deaths, including those of 13 children.  This result is still significantly lower than would be the case for a typical flu season, which can cause tens of millions of illnesses and tens of thousands of deaths.  But during the flu season of the previous year, when mask mandates and social distancing directives were firmly in place, there was virtually no flu activity in the U.S.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 479,306,156; # of deaths worldwide: 6,137,741; # of cases U.S.: 81,590,763; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,002,919. 

But these figures need to be treated with caution.  The number of excess deaths (i.e., the number of deaths in excess of the usual annual death rate) in countries across the globe suggests that the death toll from COVID is in reality much higher.  More than 100 countries do not collect reliable statistics on expected or actual deaths at all, or do not release them in a timely manner.  Even in countries that are fairly meticulously in tabulating death statistics, some of them, such as the Netherlands, counted only those individuals who died in hospital after testing positive for COVID.  In countries where reliable statistics are somewhat more difficult to obtain, such as Mexico and Russia, the number of excess deaths is greater than the number of deaths officially ascribed to COVID by a factor of 2 or 3.  India has reported 500,000 COVID-related deaths, but its count of excess deaths may be as much as ten times that amount.  In many countries of sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, even statistics on excess deaths can be difficult to obtain.  All in all, according to demographers, the probabilities are that the amount of deaths from COVID is probably between 12 and 22 million worldwide, or between 0.15% and 0.3% of the global population. 

An explanation for the recent dearth of news in the journal entries – Biden remains non-committal about aiding Ukraine – The abortion law of Idaho – Side-effects of the pandemic, bad and good – A potential pro-active measure for lessening infection – Evening statistics

I have been out and about the past several days, in part because I am helping RS verify a route that will, when finalized, lead from Harpers Ferry to the Occoquan.  On Sunday, we went from Harpers Ferry to Snickers Gap (21 miles); on Tuesday, from Balls Bluff to Morven Park (14½ miles, but since we did this hike as a loop for the Vigorous Hikers, the actual length along the north-south axis covered is considerably less); on Wednesday, from Edwards Landing to Seneca Road (24 miles, but again the actual length is less because we lost some mileage in the course of going off-route during our bushwhacking); today, from Colvin Run Mill to Seneca Road (13½ miles).  There have been other tasks to distract me as well, such as developing the hiking schedule for the Capital Hiking Club for the second quarter of the year and making preliminary plans for the Wanderbirds hiking schedule during the third quarter of the year – these being the times that the two clubs currently plan to revert to bus hikes.  All of which has made me neglect the news for the much of the week. 

Perhaps it is just as well, for the news is rather gloomy.  Biden has held a news conference following his meeting with European leaders in response to Zelinskyy’s pleas for NATO and the U.S. to aid the Ukraine’s resistance to the Russian invasion more substantially.  Biden has, characteristically, striven his utmost to assume an air of gracefulness while sitting on the fence.  He said that there’s a “real threat” of Russia using chemical weapons in Ukraine and he added that “there will be a response” if Russia actually does so, but on what the response will consist he was, to use the most charitable word, vague about the details.  Zelininskyy has asked NATO to provide Ukraine with tanks, fighter jets, and other planes to combat the arms that Russia has deployed, without any restrictions; but so far he has not received an answer and it does not appear likely that he will get one.

Governor Brad Little of Idaho has signed into law a measure that allows people who would have been family members to sue a doctor who performs an abortion after cardiac activity (or what passes for cardiac activity; for, as has already been noted, the human heart is not fully formed until 20 weeks into a pregnancy) is detected in an embryo.  Rapists will not be able to sue under such circumstances, it is true; but their relatives would be allowed to do so.  The law is scheduled to take effect 30 days after the signing.  Court challenges are naturally expected.  Opponents have said repeatedly that many women are not even aware that they are pregnant a bare six weeks after conception.  

What is surprising is not the extremity of the anti-abortion sentiment on behalf of this Republican governor, but his open admission that such a law is probably unconstitutional.  “Deputizing private citizens to levy hefty monetary fines on the exercise of a disfavored but judicially recognized constitutional right for the purpose of evading court review undermines our constitutional form of government and weakens our collective liberties,” he wrote, and he added that a similar approach could be used to restrict gun rights, a measure that would not be very popular in a state where a large number of its residents are enthusiastic hunters.  He also expressed concern about the provision that allowed the relatives of rapists to sue.  But despite these reservations, he has signed in the law, in the hope of currying favor with the faction that currently endorses a far-right opponent for the upcoming gubernatorial election.

Among the many side-effects of the pandemic is the exodus of residents from major metropolitan areas.  New York City was the greatest loser, from which nearly 328,000 citizens moved out.  (It should be added that new residents from abroad and new births have more than made up for this loss.)  Metropolitan Los Angeles lost almost 176,000 residents, the San Francisco area lost more than 116,000 residents, and greater Chicago lost more than 91,000 people from 2020 to 2021.    The San Jose, Boston, Miami, and Washington areas have also lost residents, although to a lesser degree.  The pandemic facilitated these flights from urban areas by driving businesses to direct their workers to operate from their homes.  With daily commuting becoming less common, many are taking advantage of the situation by moving to less expensive neighborhoods without concern for being in the vicinity of the office that employs them. 

Another effect has been a noticeable increase in deaths from heart disease and strokes, due to the over-crowding of hospitals that the pandemic induced.  Deaths from these causes had actually declined during the period 2011-2019, but during the first year of the pandemic deaths from heart disease increased by 6.4% and deaths from strokes increased by 4.3%.  Overall, from 2019 to 2020 the estimated age-adjusted mortality rate increased by 15.9%, largely due to COVID-19 mortality. Sadly, the official death toll from COVID has surpassed 1 million in the U.S.

On the other hand, influenza and various other virus-related respiratory diseases have actually decreased during the pandemic.  The measures to prevent infection from COVID have been effective in curbing other viruses.  Flu activity during the 2020-21 season was the lowest it has been since current reporting began in 1997.  The overall cumulative hospitalization rate for the 2020-21 flu season was 0.8 per 100,000.  By way of contrast, for the 2019-20 flu season, the overall cumulative end-of-season hospitalization rate was 66.2 per 100,000.

Towards the beginning of the pandemic a certain political leader made the following suggestion to physicians treating the emerging disease:

“Supposing we hit the body with a tremendous – whether it’s ultraviolet or just very powerful light.  I think you said that hasn’t been checked but you’re going to test it.”

Incredible as it sounds, Donald Trump may have been correct in this assessment, no matter how widely he has been mistaken in others.  A new paper, published this week in the journal Scientific Reports, has found that filling a room with a special type of ultraviolet light can reduce the presence of microbes in the air by up to 98 percent – effectively making the indoors as safe as outdoors in terms of person-to-person virus transmission.  This light is known as far-UVC .  The technology for producing UVC has actually been in place for well over one-and-a-half centuries.  It has shorter wavelengths and higher photonic energy than both its UVA and UVB brethren.  It was first used for sterilization purposes in 1878.  In 1903, Niels Ryberg Finsen received a Nobel prize for using it to treat disfiguring diseases such as lupus.  By 1910 it was routinely used for disinfecting water supplies. 

UVC light, however, has numerous unpleasant side-effects, including, if the exposure is too high, second-degree burns and eye injuries.  About ten years ago, however, a group of scientists refined UVC light by heavily filtering it so that only the lowest wavelengths were beamed out.  This “far-UVC” light is powerful enough to kill viruses and bacteria, but not sufficiently powerful to affect the human skin or the human eye.  It is inexpensive and easy to produce, and as its use increases it has the potential of reducing not only the rate of infection by COVID through transmission indoors, but of other viruses as well.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 477,733,152; # of deaths worldwide: 6,132,371; # of cases U.S.: 81,548,976; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,001,616. 

Uncertainty of news about the Ukrainian invasion and the pandemic – Personal hiking adventures – Absence of facemasks in a local brewery – A two-year retrospective – Evening statistics

If the previous entries have concentrated mainly on the personal level, it is not because I have lost interest in more pressing issues such as the pandemic or the Ukrainian invasion – very far from it – but on account of the impossibility of getting either new or reliable information about these matters.  With regard to the Ukrainian invasion, for example:  the Russians are passionately protesting against the war and Putin’s regime; the Russians who support the war outnumber those who oppose it by a factor of two-to-one.  The Russian losses are confined to a few hundred; the Russian losses number in the thousands.  The Russians have deployed their arsenal with less expertise than outside observers had expected; the Russians are using hypersonic weapons to great effect, causing much damage and loss of life.  And so on.  I simply find it impossible to determine any clear picture of the war at large from such accounts; and to judge by the contradictory assessments emerging from the Pentagon, our military experts are as perplexed as I am. 

As far as the pandemic is concerned, we seem to be in a holding pattern.  It has been “winding down” for weeks on end, but both the CDC and the WHO have been reluctant to say when it will pass to the endemic stage.  And understandably so – new variants are continually emerging, and no one knows whether any of these will expand to the point of displacing the omicron variant and, if so, whether such a variant will be more lethal in its effects than the relatively benign omicron, whose mortality rate is considerably lower than those of the variants that preceded it.  So the pandemic remains officially a pandemic for some indeterminate period. 

And in the meantime we in the U.S. continue to look after our own affairs, as is usual, buffered as we are by oceans to the west and to the east, and without much regard to what is happening in other countries.  After the winter storm of the previous week, weather in the East has been calm and warm for the most part, and indeed unseasonably warm over this past Friday and Saturday. 

On Saturday I went with other members of the Potomac Appalachian Trail Association to go over a possible extension of the trail route along the grounds of the Noman Cole Pollution Control plant with representatives from the county and from the plant itself.  Going alongside a pollution treatment plant does not, in the abstract, sound like the most attractive route for a trail, but in fact the plant facilities are surrounded by tracts of undeveloped woodland for the purpose of allowing odors from the tanks used for treating the sewage to disperse so that they do not become an irritant for the inhabitants of the nearby housing developments.  It was quite gratifying to see how the various officials reacted with enthusiasm to the possibility of filling in one of the gaps in the PHT, which currently is still non-continuous in places. 

Also, I had an interesting conversation with one of them, who has been a participant in Civil War reenactments.  He was telling me about the differences between hiking for relaxation and going over battlefields such as Antietam in preparation for such reenactments.  The loads they carry (including muskets, which are very cumbersome) hinder them greatly, and of course they wear 19^th-century standard military boots, which are much less comfortable for hiking than the boots I select from outfitters with due regard to their fit and weight.  I mentioned a visit I had taken some years ago to the National Museum of Civil War Medicine in Frederick, MD; he had never been there, but we both discussed various aspects of medical treatment in those days (operations without anesthetics, medicines based on heavy metals such as mercury and antimony, etc.) and concluded with profound thankfulness for living in an age with much more sophisticated treatments both for wounds and for diseases.

The presentation of the proposed route was concluded by noon.  After lunch, RS and I went a few miles together, going from Mason Neck West to Lorton, with most of our route taking place in Meadowood.  It was very warm that day, and although rain had been in the forecast earlier, it remained warm (though not humid) and fairly sunny for the duration of our hike.

Then on yesterday, the first day of spring, RS and I joined the Harpers Ferry Bolivar Trail and Town Alliance for a hike along the Appalachian Trail from Harpers Ferry to Snickers Gap, ending up at the Bear Chase Brewery on Rte. 602:  a hike of well over 21 miles and with about 4000 feet of elevation gain.  The group that went on this hike contained several members considerably younger than RS or myself; but, if the truth must be owned, they were for the most part not especially swift, and RS told me afterwards that they were somewhat confounded by the ease with which I outdistanced them.  There was a bit of confusion at one point.  We were supposed to wait at the David Lesser shelter to regroup.  But I arrived there at 11:10 and a few others came in over a period between 11:25 and 11:40.  We waited for a time but the remainder of the group was slow in coming.  Finally we noticed a couple of group members simply hiking past the intersection between the AT and the trail leading to the shelter, so we decided that it was best to continue.  This day, thankfully, was more seasonal in temperature, for the latter part of the hike included the beginning of the “Roller Coaster,” a 13½-mile segment in the AT that derives its name from going up and down over several steep hills in succession, and it can be unpleasant to cover in extreme heat.  

I arrived at the brewery at about 3:40.  I had expected to see others there, because I thought that a greater number of hikers in our group had bypassed the shelter than was actually the case.  So I was the first to arrive and I spent several minutes looking in vain for some of the others.  The brewery is located on a plateau above Snickers Gap and is unprotected by trees.  The weather became very blustery and I eventually waited inside, venturing out periodically to check whether any other hikers had arrived.  The brewery, to my mind, is a less inviting place to linger than the various wineries that I had visited after various other hikes.  The taproom, which is the main room for the customers, is a large rectangular area enclosed by windows with full-length glass panes to enable one to savor the views of the Blue Ridge Mountains.  But the crowd of people and the background music in an enclosed area make it difficult to hear others even when they are seated next to you, and the seats are little better than stools, consisting of flat metal plated material supported by high thin legs that elevate one’s feet well above the floor when seated.  There is no denying, however, that the grounds are handsome and that, in addition to various brews, they serve wine and various foods as well.  Eventually I found the wife of the hike organizer, who had been tasked to meet with us and provide transport to some of the hikers to the point where we began.  She was accompanied by her 8-month old baby, an infant with a very happy disposition, serenely nestling in her mother’s arms and not displaying the least amount of fretfulness in response to the noise about her.  I was glad to obtain their company, for I had to wait for some time.  With one other exception among the group, the first wave of hikers did not arrive until about 5:00. 

Although I had a facemask in my pack, I did not use it.  None of the other customers or any of the personnel tending the bar was wearing one, and if I had put one on I would have had to remove it in any case whenever I began to drink or eat.  To wear one upon entering therefore would have seemed like an affectation and, since we were in an area that the CDC has declared such measures to be no longer necessary, I decided against using mine in such surroundings. 

Yesterday, in addition to being the first day of spring, marked an anniversary of a sort.  The official declaration of the beginning of the COVID pandemic, of course, took place on March 11, 2020.  But it was on March 20^th of that year when I first embarked upon keeping this record.  It therefore seems appropriate to take a retrospective glance at this point and to see the extent to which matters have changed since the pandemic began.

I am very thankful to say that my personal health remains unaffected during the events of the past two years.  It is not merely that I had escaped the ravages of COVID, but I have not been afflicted with ailments that attend many when they are in their sixties:  no  bursitis, no bone loss, no need for crowns or root canal work, and so on.  I have remained active during this time and my stamina remains unaffected.  The hike of the preceding day was, as I said, nearly 22 miles, but while I was certainly tired when it ended I was not prostrated and I could attend to other tasks (such as the hour-and-a-half drive back home, for example) without strain. 

I continue to bring a facemask with me (either on my person or in the car) whenever I leave my house.  It has become as much of a habit by this time as checking to ensure that I have my keys in my pocket before I close the house door.

Physical activity appears to have increased generally, even though the impetus to get out of doors in waning.  It is possible that many people, after being forced to go out of doors more often on account of the pandemic, have discovered how beneficial and enjoyable such activity can be, and have therefore incorporated it into their daily lives.  Certainly I encounter more people on the trails than I did formerly.  There were many on the Appalachian Trail yesterday, even though the weather was less encouraging than it had been a day or so previously.

By degrees the inhibitions on social life and convening in crowds have been lifting.  Indoor gatherings are more frequent and all interstate travel restrictions have long since disappeared.  Both the Capital Hiking Club and the Wanderbirds are planning to resume bus hikes.  Details are still being worked out, but it seems likely that we will be reverting to the arrangements we have had in the past.  Masks are still required for public transportation but more people are using buses and the Metro than I had observed previously.

Travel has become easier, although it is still somewhat more complicated than it has been before the pandemic began.  Travel within the country’s border is not difficult.  At this point wearing a mask on airplane flights is the only additional complication.  International travel is still somewhat more cumbersome, although that may change.  Many countries do not require proof of vaccination or a negative COVID test result within 24 hours of the airplane flight.  It is still necessary to submit to such a test to re-enter the country, however, and that circumstance is not likely to change for some time.

Theoretically it should be possible for me to visit museums more frequently and take in entertainment such as concerts or theater performances.  Practically I have not yet done so.  A kind of inertia, I suppose, has set in with regard to such activities, and it will require some effort to overcome it.

It is rather sad to look back at previous predictions and to see how far off of the mark they have become.  In July of 2020 I suggested that the virus case count worldwide could expand to as many as 800 or 900 million – but I did so by way of hyperbole.  The case count is currently approaching 500 million, so such a prediction no longer seems extravagant.   The development and deployment of the vaccines, of course, have slowed down both the infection rate and the mortality rate.  But COVID has claimed the lives of over 6 million to date.  Several months earlier I predicted that our own nation would see over 1 million deaths from the pandemic; it seemed a remote possibility at the time, but currently our death toll is approaching that undesirable milestone.  Over 24% of living Americans have contracted the virus – and that is only the official figure, for many may have received positive results from home testing and have never reported it.

In addition to the toll that the pandemic has taken on our health care system , it has also played a role in damaging the nation’s social structure at large.  But that is so complicated a topic that it must wait for a separate entry to cover it in more detail.

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:471,912,762; # of deaths worldwide: 6,104,113; # of cases U.S.: 81,428,553; # of deaths; U.S.: 998,212. 

Along the Potomac – A new bridge between Europe and Asia – COVID studies – Evening statistics

I went with RS today on a variant of a hike we’ve done in the past along the south bank of the Potomac (i.e., the Virginia side).  We started from Brunswick, crossed the bridge, and eventually ascended to a high meadow that provided an extensive 360-view not unlike some of those I have seen from the so-called “balds” on the Appalachian Trail in Tennessee and North Carolina.  After that we went down to the river bank and then climbed up steeply to Eagle Point, an area along the ridge of the high hills about 1200 feet above the river that provides untrammeled views about 2 miles east of Harpers Ferry, including that of the river winding towards the town in the distance and of several large islets with groves of sycamores.  After that we descended down towards the river again.   This portion of the hike was a bushwhack.  But it was not unusually difficult, since the undergrowth is not dense at this season.  It was, to be sure, somewhat more arduous than walking on defined trails but the unique vistas it provided were worth a certain amount of exertion.  The weather was a great contrast to what it had been a week ago; after the snowstorm of the previous weekend, the temperatures have been steadily rising and today it went up to nearly 80 degrees.  No one would have guessed, without consulting the calendar, that we are still in winter, even if at the very end of the season.

In the midst of the tumult that Europe in general is undergoing, a great achievement has been completed.  The 1915 Canakkale Bridge was officially opened today by Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan.  It spans the Dardanelles, thereby connecting Europe and Asia.  (The “1915” in the bridge’s name refers to the year of an Ottoman victory in battle during World War I.)  There are three other bridges between Turkey’s European and Asian shores, but they are all in Istanbul.  Up to this point, vehicles travelling between the crossing of the Dardanelles between Anatolia and the Gallipoli peninsula required a one-hour ferry journey.  The additional waiting time could prolong the journey’s duration to as much as five hours. Now automobiles will be able to get across in about six minutes.  The bridge is about 3 miles in length and it has the longest main span, or distance between the two towers, of any suspension bridge in the world.

By this time numerous studies have been conducted about the COVID virus.  Some of the conclusions these have reached are:

1. Neurological risks have not been increased by the vaccines.  Bell’s palsy (facial weakness), encephalomyelitis (inflammation of the brain and spinal cord), and Guillain-Barré syndrome (a nerve condition) were no more common in the vaccine recipients than in the general population.  However, there has been a slight increase of these conditions among those who have contracted COVID and have since recovered.  In other words, those who shunned the vaccines for fear of incurring neurological conditions actually increased their chances of becoming afflicted by them. 
2. People who have been bedridden for seven days or more with COVID are at increased risk of anxiety and depression.  I’m not certain why an elaborate research project (the study analyzed data from Denmark, Estonia, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, and the UK collected between March 2020 and August 2021 on more than 247,000 people, including 9,979 who were diagnosed with COVID) was thought necessary to reach this conclusion.  I should think that most people would become anxious if they contracted a disease with a significant mortality rate and an even higher rate of leaving behind a large number of adverse after-effects.  However, for what it is worth, those who had COVID and were bedridden for at least a week had a 61% higher risk for symptoms of depression and a 43% higher risk for anxiety, for up to 16 months after their diagnosis, as compared to those who were never infected.  On the other hand, patients who had COVID-19 but who were not bedridden actually had significantly lower rates of depression than people who had never contracted the virus. 
3. Those who have had an inflamed heart muscle (myocarditis) in the past can safety receive the COVID vaccine from Pfizer and BioNTech without causing the problem to recur. Myocarditis is a common complication of COVID and of other viral infections,  It has been a rare side effect associated with some COVID vaccines, primarily in young males.  But the sampling of those who had previously experienced myocarditis and who had received the vaccines have not recorded a relapse in even a single instance.

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 467,755,956; # of deaths worldwide: 6,093,107; # of cases U.S.: 81,385,104; # of deaths; U.S.: 997,100.   Although cases have been rising again in Europe, COVID-related deaths have not.  Today’s death toll was less than 5,000 worldwide – the lowest it has been in a very long time. 

No VP slot for Pence – The GOP begins to move away from Donald – Surprising effectiveness of Ukrainian resistance – People still wear masks, despite the CDC’s lenient recommendations – Evening statistics

Donald Trump has announced that if he should run for Presidential office again, Mike Pence would not be a potential running mate.  Pence’s reaction to this statement has not been recorded, but in all probability it will be one of intense relief.  He had been Trump’s loyal adherent during the four years he served as Vice-President and he has consistently refused to say as much as a word condemning his former superior’s treasonous attempt to usurp the 2020 election; but even his sycophancy, it appears, has limits and he does not appear at all inclined to associate again with the man whose followers openly advocated his lynching during the assault on the Capitol.

Pence is not alone in his alienation.  It appears that one unexpected side-effect of the Ukrainian invasion is a loosening of the fetters Trump has imposed upon the Republican party.  Trump’s endorsement of Putin – on which he later back-pedaled when he belatedly perceived how it rebounded on him – was so distasteful to the majority of the populace, liberal and conservative alike, that the Republican Party is distancing itself to a further extent than before from Trump and is attempting to out-rival the Democrats in its hawkish attitude towards the Russian invaders.  For example, in the campaign for a North Carolina Senate seat, Pat McCrory has attempted to discredit his rival (and Trump’s favored candidate) Ted Budd by representing him as a Putin sympathizer.  Budd’s comments were actually lifted out of context and he has gone on record as being a supporter of the Ukrainian defenders; but the mere fact that such a tactic can be deployed during a significant mid-term campaign is an indicator of how the Republican Party is at last beginning to shift away from their brazen idol.

While it is clear that the Ukrainian resistance cannot force 150,000 Russian troops out of their country, it has inflicted more damage on its opponents than experts expected.  As many as 7,000 Russian soldiers may have been killed and as much as 10% of its armor has been lost, or at least so the latest estimates would have us believe.  Many Russian soldiers were so poorly briefed they were surprised even to be invading Ukraine, and even more surprised to be shot at once they crossed the border. Special forces “were told it was a three-day excursion,” according to one account.  Peace talks between the two sides have gathered pace in the last 48 hours as the war shows no sign of coming to a resolution.  Zelenskyy has offered to abandon Ukraine’s quest to join NATO and seek a neutral status along the lines of Sweden or Austria. But it is unclear whether Putin will settle for that concession alone, after all of that he has invested into the invasion.

The number of Americans who live in counties for which the CDC still recommends mask mandates is now about 1.7 million, or well under 1% of the population.  But masks are still worn in this area a good deal; nearly every customer had one in the supermarket where I shopped today.  Habits die hard.  Indeed, Dr. Fauci anticipates a rise in new cases as the latest variant has caused increases in many European nations. 

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  465,616,803; # of deaths worldwide: 6,086,873; # of cases U.S.: 81,350,430; # of deaths; U.S.: 996,066.  

Hiking in Lost River – Echoes from the past in the nooks of Shenandoah National Park – Putin’s onslaught continues – Difficulties confronting occupation of Ukraine – Signs of the waning pandemic – Evening statistics

I spent this past weekend with various friends at cabins in Lost River State Park, a park located in the valley beside the Big Ridge Mountain.  Initially we had planned to have dinner during one of the evenings at a local restaurant, but the snowstorm that came over the weekend forced us to alter our plans and dine together every night at the largest cabin.  That did not matter, for the group (14 of us in all) brought so much food that we easily accommodated the need for eating on our own for an extra evening.   The meal on Friday set the pattern for the rest of the evenings, with us all converging to the largest cabin at about 5:00, snacking on various appetizers until the main courses were produced between 6:30 and 7:00, with much feasting and chatting comfortably together and sitting about a blazing fire until 9:00 or thereabouts.  “Et le vin donc, mes enfants! ça coulait autour de la table comme l’eau coule à la Seine” (And so the wine, my children, flowed about the table like water flows in the Seine” – Ėmile Zola, L’Assommoir); we brought several bottles of wine to contribute to the festivities, and we did justice to all of them.

The snowstorm did not really settle down until well into Saturday morning, and we did not start hiking until 11:00 AM.  It was cold and blustery and overcast – not dull-gray but not bright either.  As we went into higher elevations the snowdrifts added to the challenges of ascending.  Both on this day and on Sunday the drifts on occasion nearly up to my knee.  On Saturday we went along a service road that winds upward to the White Oak Trail, which we used (still ascending) to reach the Cranny Crow overlook, whose view extends over five counties.  The mountains in the distance had a terraced appearance that was enhanced by the snow cover.  I returned by the Howard Lick Trail once I descended and went along a couple of additional short trails before returning to the cabin.  But eventually my hands were getting chilled and so I returned to the cabin rather than risk getting frostbitten.  The hike was only 7½ miles in all, with 1200 feet of elevation gain, but the effort of plowing through the snow made it somewhat more arduous than these figures would indicate.

On Sunday the trails were likewise covered with snow, but it was a splendid day:  sunny, very clear blue sky, hardly any wind at all.  This time we went up along the East Ridge Trail, whose ascent is similar in scope to the one to Cranny Crow.  The others returned by way of the Light Horse Harry Lee Trail, but I extended my hike to going up the Red Fox Trail to the southwest corner of the park – which I had not seen before, although I have been to the park many times.  Then I descended down Piney Ridge Road (the pavement was not visible at all on account of the snow cover) and then the Copse Cove Trail.  This last trail was a bit of a challenge, because the snow covered the trail path completely.  The blazes are sometimes placed rather far apart, and various animal tracks occasionally misled me into veering off of the trail slightly.  But it was easy enough to work out with a little patience.

Today’s hike with the Vigorous Hikers went along the Pocoscin Hollow area, where we did a substantial amount of bushwhacking to obtain glimpses of various objects we would not have been able to see from the established trails:  a grove of immense tulip poplars (one so wide that the only way that six of us could extend our reach around it was to extend a hiking pole in one hand and grasping our neighbor’s with the other), the remains of a few homesteads, an old deserted graveyard, a steam engine used for heating purposes, a machine for making barrel staves.  Shenandoah National Park was formerly a miscellaneous collection of private farms and the majority of their owners were forced by the state’s use of “eminent domain” to sell their land to the government.  It is still possible to come across these reminders of a time, close to a century by now, in which the land was privately owned and consisted of farms rather than forest.   The snow fell much less heavily in this area than it did further west, and most of it had melted by the day of our hike.

Former White House National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster has said that Russia’s intensifying of its onslaught on Ukraine and its attacks on civilians are signs that its government is getting “desperate.”  Last week Putin has also set up a U.N. Security Council meeting to discuss what it called “the military biological activities of the U.S. on the territory of Ukraine” – a patent fabrication, which may be a tactic for bringing in the use of chemical weapons.  It is clear that the passionate resistance of the Ukrainians to the invasion has taken Putin by surprise, but how long can they continue to struggle against such odds? 

Nonetheless, while Putin might very well conquer Ukraine, he almost certainly cannot occupy it.  It takes, on the average, about 1 soldier per 20 inhabitants to contain an occupied country, especially when the inhabitants bitterly resent the intruders.  Even if half of the Ukrainians become refugees, Putin would need a force of about 1 million to occupy the country permanently, and he simply does not have the resources to sustain it.

Slowly the pandemic’s impact is lessening.  At this point about 2% of Americans lives in counties with a “high” COVID community level.  The remaining counties are rated as “low” or “medium,” meaning that there is no recommendation to wear a mask or where the immunocompromised should take extra precautions.  Hospitalizations and deaths continue to fall and probably will decrease as the winter season ends and warmer weather sets in.  Mask mandates are more or less gone (Hawaii, the last state to maintain one, will terminate its mandate on the 25^th), but in this area, at least, people are still wearing them.  My bank requests customers to wear masks and when I go to food stores and other services most customers wear masks voluntarily.  But there are exceptions.  At the office for tax consultation, for instance, none of the employees wear masks and the request for customers to wear them has been scrapped.  As one goes further from the capital, of course, the use of masks sharply decreases.  My fellow-hikers and I stopped at the store of the gas station in Madison, VA.  The area is quite rural:  the town contains less than 300 people, while the population of the entire county is barely over 13,000.  Needless to say, all of the customers and staff were bare-faced.

Yesterday’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  459,229,934; # of deaths worldwide: 6,066,461; # of cases U.S.: 81,207,341; # of deaths; U.S.: 990,920.  

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  461,530,962; # of deaths worldwide: 6,073,176; # of cases U.S.: 81,244,076; # of deaths; U.S.: 992,302.  

Internet-related frustrations – Hiking on the Appalachian Trail – Lifting of mask mandates – The situation in Ukraine – Our damaged electoral system – Evening statistics

I was too out of sorts to make notes yesterday.  It was a busy day and, among other things, I was attempting to reserve flights for a trip to visit some friends out West.  Using both booking.com and expedia.com turned out to be an infuriating experience:  nearly every return flight these sites presented to me left either at midnight or so late in the evening that the time the plane alighted in one of the Washington airports would have been on the following morning.  In desperation I turned to the United website, where I was fortunate enough to find a flight from California to DC had both departure and arrival times scheduled for a reasonable hour.

Today was much more pleasant.  I went to the Appalachian Trail close to Buchanan and hiked from the Sunset Field area, where the Apple Orchard Trail forms a junction with the AT, down to Jennings Creek.  I hired a shuttle between the start and end point, and I am glad that I did.  It would have been very discouraging doing a there-and-back hike, particularly as the point where I started the hike was more than 2000 feet higher than the point where I ended.  It was rather chilly and overcast when I began hiking but the weather quickly became much less cloudy and – somewhat less quickly – rather warmer.  For those who wish to avoid crowds I can heartily recommend this area, at any rate during the winter season.  In the 11½ miles of the hike I encountered only one other person, and the portions of the path that were covered with leaves several inches deep indicated that the trail is not heavily used.  There is only one overlook but the hike was scenic nonetheless, going over numerous ledges and valleys defined by meandering little streams.  The descent to Jennings Creek was particularly dramatic on account of glimpses of the scattered houses of the little village of Arcadia to the east that accentuated the wildness of the setting.

The completion of these 11½ miles means that I have a segment of approximately 40 miles in the Pearisburg area remaining in order to fulfill the goal of hiking all of the AT that goes through Virginia (about 550 miles in all, or one-quarter of the entire AT).  My friends AD and RH, with whom I’ve hiked a large amount of the AT, have already scheduled a trip later this year that will cover this segment, so it is possible that I will have completed the Virginian portion of the AT during 2022.

The mask mandate for public transportation has been extended from March 18^th to April 18^th.  At this point, however, nearly all states have rolled back their indoor mask requirements.  Hawaii, the last state to do so, has announced that its mandate will be lifted on March 25^th. 

It is impossible to get any reliable statistics from the Ukrainian invasion, but the Pentagon has estimated that Russia already lost 4,000 soldiers.  By comparison, 2,461 U.S. troops died in the war in Afghanistan over 20 years.  President Zelinsky has said that Putin will soon negotiate to end the war on account of the unexpectedly strong resistance from the Ukrainians.  It sounds like wishful thinking to me, but it may be so.  The Russian economy has taken a beating as a result of the Western sanctions, as even the Kremlin has acknowledged.  In addition, Russia may not have sufficient manpower to occupy the country.  Approximately 190,000 Russian troops are believed to be in Ukraine now.  That is a substantial portion of Russia’s army, which is estimated to have 280,000 personnel and 900,000 armed forces overall.  Russia claims to have 1-2 million of reserves, but only a minority have had the military training for active war, possibly as few as 4,000-5,000.   Currently Russia is recruiting fighters from Syria and has deployed paramilitary units, including from the Muslim Russian region of Chechnya.   That is, possibly, a sign that the Russian government is unable to sustain the war with its own army unaided. 

The damage that Donald Trump has inflicted on our electoral system is both ugly andlasting.  About 20% of election workers are at this point considering leaving the profession altogether.  They are frustrated both by interference from politicians after the latter lose elections and by threats to their physical safety.  The Brennan Center for Justice at the New York University School of Law conducted a poll that, among other things, documented more than 900 threatening and hostile messages to election administrators and staff in 17 states, almost all alluding to Trump’s mendacious of a stolen election.  Of those who said they are “somewhat unlikely” or “very unlikely” to remain in their posts through the next presidential election, about a third said a key factor in their decision is that “too many political leaders are attacking a system that they know is fair and honest.”

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  453,251,646; # of deaths worldwide: 6,050,491; # of cases U.S.: 81,107,413; # of deaths; U.S.: 990,220.   With only 4% of the world’s population, Americans account for over 16% of COVID-related deaths – lower than before, but still four times greater than the worldwide average.  This pandemic is not over yet.

A strenuous hike – A hiker who lacks judgment – Guy Reffit’s conviction – The Freedom Convoy – Further economic penalties for Russia – COVID still a pandemic – Evening statistics

Today I went with the Vigorous Hikers on a hike that was . . . vigorous.  Specifically, we took the Appalachian Trail from Rte. 522 to Compton Peak, then descended down to Lands Run Road, ascended up to the Dickey Ridge Trail, ascended again to the AT, and then descended back to the parking area, which included another ascent during the last mile that MC, our hike leader, referred to as “Heartbreak Hill” because it was rather discouraging to encounter a 400-foot climb after hiking 18 miles and climbing over 4000 feet before arriving at it.  But the day was not unseasonably warm, as it has been for the past couple of days, and the weather for the most part was rather cool but comfortable.  Wildlife is beginning to stir after being relatively inactive during the winter season.  We saw many deer roaming through the forest and numerous birds flying above, including pileated woodpeckers and bluejays. 

On lower elevations, spring has definitely arrived.  The early plants, such as forsythia, crocus, and hellebore, are in full bloom and the cherry trees are flowering.

I write about hiking a good deal and in general I like to believe that it promotes both good health and greater mental alertness.  But occasionally I have my doubts about the latter, especially upon hearing reports of how erratically certain hikers behave.  This past Wednesday a hiker from New York, whose name was not released, called 911 at about 7 PM to say he got lost while hiking on the Humphreys Trail in the San Francisco Peaks north of Flagstaff.  Fair enough – it is a difficult trail, ascending nearly 3400 feet in the course of about 5½ miles on rocky terrain between the Arizona Snowbowl ski resort and Humphreys Peak, the state’s highest point (12,633 feet, quite sufficient to cause altitude sickness if one is not careful).  Snowcat vehicles from the ski resort drove the man off the mountain and he declined medical attention.  But the very next day he called 911 again to say he needed help after injuring himself in a fall near the saddle area of Humphreys Trail.  A helicopter was dispatched to pick him up, along with another hiker who had stopped to aid him.  Understandably, officials from the Sheriff’s office of Coconino County, after providing the hiker with some preventative education about trail conditions during the winter season, “encouraged him to not attempt the hike again.”

Guy Reffit has been convicted.  He is the January 6^th rioter whose case had been taken to a jury trial, at his own request.  The jury unanimously found him guilty of all charges and his sentencing is set for June 8^th.  Nicole Reffit, his wife, said that the verdict was “against all American people” and that she and her husband were planning to appeal the guilty finding.  The trifling circumstance that Reffit threatened his own children with gunshot if they testified against him seems to have made no impression on her at all.  In any case, the most negative evidence against Reffit was produced by Reffit himself.   He recorded himself in various forums talking about what he planned to do and of what he eventually did. He even bragged about his conduct on a Zoom call that he recorded himself and that the government afterwards located on an external hard drive.

The Freedom Convoy has gone down to sorry defeat after encountering one of the most formidable enemy forces of all time:  the DC metro rush-hour traffic.  Many participating truck drivers got separated and lost amongst the numerous commuters in their cars, while a white pickup truck’s hood flipped open on the Greenbelt area in the afternoon and several vehicles broke down near the Temple Hills and Landover exits.  Just as the smaller, lighter, swifter English craft assailed and dodged the unwieldy ships of the Spanish Armada, the car drivers of the Maryland and Virginia suburbs zoomed around the trucks and shoehorned themselves in front, causing many truckers to jam frantically on their brakes, in typical Beltway fashion. 

It’s very difficult to obtain definite news about the invasion of the Ukraine, because both sides continually exaggerate the amount of casualties they’ve inflicted on their opponents.  But Russia is certainly paying a heavy price economically for its ill-judged foray. 

Major companies are ending decades of business with Russia, including BP, Estée Lauder, Apple, Spotify, Ikea, Disney, Warner Bros., Expedia, Adidas, Exxon, Harley-Davidson, General Motors, Paypal, Visa, Mastercard, American Express, Netflix, Tiktok, Puma, Airbnb, Lego, IBM, and Levi’s.  This last one might be the most devastating of all to the Russians, who are obsessed with obtaining blue jeans. 

The U.S. has banned imports of Russian oil, which, however, accounts for less than 10% of U.S. imports.  More to the point is a similar resolution from the U.K. and the EU to be independent of Russian oil by 2030.  Indeed, it is quite possible that one of the long-term results of the conflict in the Ukraine will be a lessened dependence on fossil fuels generally. 

Despite the decline in hospitalizations and deaths, COVID remains the nation’s third-greatest killer, after heart disease and cancer.  A loss of about 1,150 deaths per week from flu and other respiratory diseases such as RSV (Respiratory Syncytial Virus) is considered an acceptable rate for an endemic disease.  As of the first week of this month, the U.S. was still experiencing 35,000 hospitalizations per day and 12,000 deaths per week from COVID.  So it appears that COVID will not lose its pandemic status for some time to come.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 449,490,158; # of deaths worldwide: 6,034,438; # of cases U.S.: 81,012,694; # of deaths; U.S.: 987,608.  

Possibility of attending live performances again – Hantavirus cases – The People’s Convoy in Washington – Signs of Russia’s flailing – Putin and judo – The death toll, reported and actual – COVID on a local level – Evening statistics

Yesterday was an anniversary of sorts.  On March 6, 2020, I went with RK to a performance of the King’s Singers, the first performance I attended after the pandemic began and the last one I attended for many months afterwards – not until December 12^th of this year, in fact, do I go to one and even that was on a reduced scale, taking place in a local church rather than in a concert hall.  Presumably going to concerts and theater performances is feasible now, but it takes a while to get into the mindset of being willing to venture into crowds of people indoors again.

Yesterday we received a reminder that there are other diseases besides COVID.  Rat infestation has caused the first hantavirus outbreak in Washington, DC.  A report was recently issued about two people contracted the virus, experiencing severe hemorrhagic and respiratory problems.  One of these occurred in May, 2018 and the second occurred in November, 2018.  This episode is not the first instance of the hantavirus in the country; since 1993, over 800 cases have been reported in various areas of the country.  As the figures indicate, it is not very widespread but it is severe; the mortality rate is about 35%. 

The so-called People’s Convoy has arrived at Washington.  As protests go, it is a bit understated.  Possibly the participants feel somewhat at a loss protesting mandates that no longer exist while everyone’s attention is currently fixed on an international war crisis across the Atlantic.  At all events, the truckers convened Saturday at the Hagerstown Speedway, a racetrack in Maryland about 80 miles northwest of the city, and both yesterday and today they drove slow laps around the Beltway.  Most residents would agree that driving around the Beltway is not a particularly pleasurable activity.  I am reminded of the remark of Bertie Wooster when he found his valet Jeeves having tea with a depressed-looking colleague alongside the spoiled brat whom the latter was obliged to chaperon (Wodehouse, incidentally, is particularly good with his spoiled brat characters):  “If that’s your idea of a large afternoon, go ahead.”

The People’s Convoy, by the way, does not seem to be very familiar with the patterns of traffic in the DC Metro area.  In clogging up the Beltway, they have succeeded in preventing drivers from reaching many of the suburban streets that ordinarily are very cluttered during certain hours of the day, but which have been blissfully traffic-free as a result of their maneuvers.  For this reason, many of us locals are regarding them with a sort of amused indulgence that one usually bestows upon little children.

Russia has told Ukraine it is ready to halt military operations if Kyiv meets a list of conditions:  cease military action, change its constitution to enshrine neutrality, acknowledge Crimea as Russian territory, and recognize the separatist republics of Donetsk and Lugansk as independent states.  Outrageous as these demands are, they are in a sense encouraging, being an indication that Putin is getting dispirited by the fierce resistance that the Ukrainians have been displaying, as well as the economic hardships as a result of various sanctions and the numerous protests among the Russians themselves.  One must not exaggerate the number of those involved in such protests.  For the most part Putin has been popular among his fellow-countrymen.  Throughout their history the Russians have invariably shown a fondness for the boot that stamps upon their faces, and they appear to have no doubt than other nations, once they submit to such dominance, will feel a reciprocal enjoyment. 

Putin certainly has invested a great deal in this invasion, far too much to make it likely that he will retreat.  Senior Defense Department officials said last Thursday that Russia had moved roughly 90% of its pre-staged combat power across the border into Ukraine. Officials increased that estimate to roughly 92% last Friday and to roughly 95% yesterday.

No doubt Putin was particularly hard-hit by the announcement from the International Judo Foundation that he and Arkady Rotenberg (the co-founder of SMP Bank and co-owner of SGM, which is the largest gas pipeline construction company in Russia) were stripped of their honorary titles and removed from all positions held in the organization.  Putin likes to promote an image of extreme manliness and takes great pride in his black belt status, even to the point of having co-authored a book on the sport. 

The death toll from the pandemic is now over 6 million worldwide.  At least, that is the number of reported deaths.  But if various nations’ excess mortality rates are examined, the actual number may range between 14 million and 23.5 million.  India, for instance, has recorded more than 500,000 deaths.  But experts believe its true toll is in the millions, primarily from the delta variant.

I had a conversation with one of my neighbors today that showed how the pandemic has been affecting people on an individual level.  He, his wife, and his children all came down with the virus in the autumn of 2020.  The cases were mild but, even so, the time they spent while struggling against the virus was “a rough two weeks,” in his words, and his wife in particular was greatly affected, although she eventually recovered.  They took to home-schooling their children as the pandemic continued and the schools stopped holding classes in-person.  Their children simply did not adjust very well to receiving instruction via Internet, whereas they have been making great strides as a result of getting lessons at their home.  Even now, when restrictions have been lifted and children are returning to classrooms, they have elected to continue home-schooling.  It seems probable that the pandemic has encouraged this trend and that home-schooling will remain more prevalent even after the virus recedes completely.

Yesterday’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  446,611,495; # of deaths worldwide: 6,019,434; # of cases U.S.: 80,917,522; # of deaths; U.S.: 984,020. Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  447,684,355; # of deaths worldwide: 6,015,048; # of cases U.S.: 6,026,362; # of deaths; U.S.: 985,556.  

In the southern portion of Shenandoah National Park – Trump’s new social media falls flat – Vagueness about the end of the pandemic – Evening statistics

The weather has become spring-like, even though officially we still have over two weeks of winter left.  I took advantage of the conditions today (in the high fifties-to-low-sixties, dry and clear) to go to the southern portion of Shenandoah National Park and finish up bits and pieces of the Appalachian Trail I’ve missed out in the past.  Even though the southern third of the park between Swift Run Gap and Rockfish Gap is by far the least used, there were several people on the trails.  I was particularly pleased to encounter a hiking group of African-Americans.  In general, people of color are under-represented on the trails, but I’m in hopes that this trend is being reversed.  The party included a few conscientious hike leaders, who were carefully monitoring the others and communicating with one another by walkie-talkies.  But none of the hikers appeared to be having any particular difficulties during the ascent to Hightop Mountain (about 900 feet over the course of two miles) and they were all enjoying themselves. 

“Your wait is over! Tap here to start using Truth Social.”

And what might Truth Social be?  It is nothing less than Donald Trump’s response to his being banned from using Twitter.  He has set up a social media app of his own for his followers to use.  Tweets or posts are labeled as “Truths” and retweets are called “ReTruths” (the capital T in the middle is not a misprint).  Quite simply, there is not much activity on this application.  It has fewer than 1 million users, far below the much-quoted figure of 75 million who voted for Trump in the 2020 election.  Twitter, by way of contrast, has an estimated 6 million unique visitors per month. 

Moreover, a good number of these who access Truth Social are doing so in order to troll it.  For example, one user, who called himself “Jon Conn,” made the following post about a partnership between Planned Parenthood and Walmart:  “We are pleased to partner with Planned Parenthood in offering abortions in all Walmart locations up to 1 year after birth.”  In another parody account, this same user issued the following “Truth”:  “In honor of gay pride month, we will be restricting access to @truthsocial for non-LGBTQ users on the App Store.”   Both of these created something of an uproar.  Trump’s followers tend to be behindhand in technological matters, and so far the trolls have had no difficulty in baiting them unmercifully.

“I don’t think people should get the impression that we’re saying that this is all over,” Dr. Fauci said in a video interview with Samantha Manning of the Cox Media Group. “We are going to be dealing with SARS-CoV-2 for quite a while. We want to prevent the necessity of shutting anything down.”  I could wish him to be a little more specific.  It acknowledged in most quarters the COVID will be with us for a long time to come.  The question is:  what are the conditions that will enable us to say that it is no longer a pandemic?  We seem to be close to such conditions now, with mask mandates disappearing and travel requirements easing.  Masks are still required on public transportations (although a few people appear to believe that the virus will in some mysterious way offer them a dispensation when they remove their masks to talk on their cell phones).  But even that may change by the middle of the month.

According to Johns Hopkins University, which has been maintaining daily measurements since the onset of the pandemic, deaths from COVID have dropped 11% from last week.  But the U.S. is still averaging over 1,500 new deaths per day, which is much worse than a disease such as the flu. Many are still vulnerable.  About a third of the population is unvaccinated (though it is true that a large number of these are children, who tend to be less vulnerable to COVID than adults) and the immunocompromised, about 3% of Americans, or 9 million in all.  “Clearly, it isn’t over yet. There are still people we need to protect,” said Dr. Claudia Hoyen, the director of pediatric infection control at UH Rainbow Babies and Children’s Hospital in Cleveland . “But hopefully, maybe, just maybe this is the beginning of the end. Wouldn’t that be wonderful?” 

It would indeed.  But when exactly is “soon”?

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  445,122,961; # of deaths worldwide: 6,015,048; # of cases U.S.: 80,912,619; # of deaths; U.S.: 983,837.  

More developments in Ukraine – The truck convoy as anti-climax – Evening statistics

The fears that radiation would be released after the Russian forces set fire to one of the reactors of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant have been put to rest.  But the plant remains under Russian control, which is a severe blow to the Ukrainians.  It supplies about a fifth of Ukraine’s power.  As President Zelensky has pointed out, the very fact Russia is launching attacks in the vicinity of Ukrainian nuclear plants is extremely dangerous, especially in light of that country’s incompetent response to the meltdown of Chernobyl in 1986.  “There are 15 nuclear reactors in Ukraine. If one of them blows, that’s the end for everyone, that’s the end of Europe. All of Europe will have to evacuate,” he said.  Indeed, the Russians may use the threat of deliberately releasing radiation to intimidate the European nations currently lending aid to Ukraine.

The Russian stock market has been closed for four consecutive days, the longest period it has done so since that nations’ economic crisis of 1998.  Equity index provider MSCI Inc. called Russia’s equity markets “uninvestable” after the U.S. and other western countries imposed their sanctions.  “The reclassification decision will be implemented in one step across all MSCI Indexes, including standard, custom and derived indexes, at a price that is effectively zero and as of the close of March 9,” MSCI said in its statement.

Lindsay Graham has urged Russians to assassinate Putin, and for once I agree with him.  It was injudicious for someone in his position to say as much aloud, I suppose, but undoubtedly the world at large would breathe much more easily once Putin was out of the way.  There is little chance of that happening, however; reckless as he may be about the safety of his fellow-Russians, the Ukrainians, and the inhabitants of other European nations, he takes good care that his own skin is well-protected. 

At the moment he is ensuring that not the tiniest breath of criticism may be heard within the borders of the country.  He has just signed a bill that threatens up to 15 years in prison for what the Russian government deems to be “fake” reports about the war.  He has also blocked Facebook, Twitter, and five foreign media organizations (the BBC, Voice of America, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, German broadcaster Deutsche Welle, and Latvia-based website Meduza) that publish news in Russian.

There is a fable about a mountain that went into labor, emitting a great deal of smoke and causing quakes that sent trees crashing to the ground and rocks tumbling, only to produce a single mouse at the end of its upheaval.  That story is no inapt analogy of the truckers’ convoy currently on its way to Washington.  Presumably its intention is to protest various mandates, but what mandates are left to protest?  More than 90% of the population is no longer required to wear masks anywhere.  Then, too, public attention has been diverted from them.  Their grievances seem somewhat trivial alongside with those of the Ukrainians whose country is being invaded.  They are scheduled to arrive in the DC metro by Sunday, and we shall see whether people will greet them with any enthusiasm or indeed even notice them at all.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  443,703,298; # of deaths worldwide: 6,009,162; # of cases U.S.: 80,894,257; # of deaths; U.S.: 983,440.   The death rate is not slowing as it should be: there were more than 1400 COVID-related deaths today.  This figure is lower than it has been earlier and it is of course to be expected that there is a certain lag time between the deceleration of the infection rate and of the death rate.  Still – of the world’s new COVID cases today, the U.S. accounted for less than 3% of them.  But it accounted for more than 18% of today’s deaths from COVID worldwide.  I had expected the two rates to show more parity by now.  No one among the CDC or the various other medical experts appears to be particularly concerned, and it may be that I’m fretting too much and that the rates will even out in time.  But I would feel a bit easier in my mind if someone addressed this issue.

PHTA meeting – The Ukrainian invasion worsens – COVID declines; mask mandates diminish – Evening statistics

I met with the Potomac Heritage Trail Association today.  It is one of the few live meetings I’ve attended since the pandemic began.  We convened at the PATC headquarters in Vienna, which is about six miles from my house.  Since my car has been having some difficulties I had to leave it at the auto dealer’s to fix it and I went there by foot, both coming and going, so that I may claim that I have not eaten the bread of idleness today.  The meeting itself had some interesting features.  WN, the chairman, informed us about a study that has been done by the Northern Virginia Regional Commission Economic Benefits Study, which concluded that a system of hiking trails provides benefits in the form of reduced health costs (as a result of people getting more exercise and being more of doors more frequently) and increased employment amounting to $490 million per year.   This finding, obviously, will be of some use in helping to persuade state and county officials to support our efforts to connect the trails with one another. 

Ironically, the further one gets from the city the less supportive such officials tend to be.  One issue that the PHTA is grappling with is the Nice Memorial Bridge that connects Rte. 301 in King George County, VA, to Newburg in Charles County, MD, about 50 miles south of the Beltway.  It has no facilities for pedestrians and is not likely to get any.  The bridge is not heavily used by commuters, since neither King George County nor Charles County provides much in the way of employment; the Morgantown Generating Station, which is the main source of employment in Newburg, is being phased out and will be completely inactive by 2027.  The trail system at this point includes one that goes through Dahlgren, but it will take some doing to connect it to any point on the Maryland shore.

The Russian invasion gets uglier and uglier.  Currently one of the reactions of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant near Kyiv – the largest one in Europe – is on fire as a result of Russian shelling.  Firefighters cannot access it because they are being shot at.  In addition, many towns and cities along Ukraine’s eastern border with Russia have been reduced to rubble by Russian forces.  Both Kyiv and Kharkiv, the biggest cities of the country, have been bombarded relentlessly with missiles and artillery shells.  Russia has made important strategic gains in recent days across southern Ukraine’s Black Sea coast. Securing the south would cut off the Ukrainian government’s access to vital ports and could allow Russia to bring troops and supplies in by sea. 

Does anyone remember when COVID dominated the headlines?  It’s still around, even if the turmoil in Europe has diverted everyone’s attention.  At this point less than 10% of the population lives in areas where facemasks are recommended when indoors in public places.  Masks are still required for planes, trains, and buses.  This requirement will expire on the 18^th; it is not yet known whether the CDC will extend it.  Hospitalizations are down 77% from the peak level during the omicron wave. About 35,000 people were hospitalized with COVID today, down from nearly 153,000 on Jan. 20^th.   

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  441,809,948; # of deaths worldwide: 6,000,648; # of cases U.S.: 80,841,877; # of deaths; U.S.: 981,720.

The elephantine pace of the pandemic waning – A Capitol raider’s eulogy – The Ukrainian invasion continues – Evening statistics

Fairfax County has a ranking of “low-risk,” meaning that masks are worn on the basis of personal preference.  Yet when I was out doing a few errands today, virtually all store employees and the overwhelming majority of customers were wearing masks.  This behavior is a dramatic contrast to that of various counties which are still rated as high-risk, where as often as not people decline to wear masks in defiance of the mandates that still exist there.

In the State of the Union address, Biden outlined the strategy that the government will be pursuing towards ending COVID-related restrictions.  Shutdowns are no longer in place and “most Americans in most of the country can now be mask free.”  The fact remains, however, that while the pandemic began at a steady relentless pace, the wind-down is occurring in fits and starts.  We are still losing several hundred per day and, although mask mandates are being lifted in many areas, masks are still required for public transport and for airplanes.  Several experts have been saying for weeks that we are “going” to enter the endemic phase shortly, but no one will venture to give a firm date as to when this will happen. 

“Matthew Lawrence Perna died on February 25, 2022 of a broken heart,” his family said in an obituary. “His community (which he loved), his country, and the justice system killed his spirit and his zest for life.” 

Who exactly was the man who inspired such a touching tribute?  Why, he was one of the rioters who vandalized the Capitol on January 6^th of last year, and who was afterwards charged with witness tampering, entering and remaining in a restricted building or grounds, and two counts of disorderly conduct.  He pleaded guilty to all charges and was awaiting sentence for them, when he decided to take matters into his own hands by committing suicide.  Video footage showed that he was in the Capitol for 20 minutes that day.  Afterwars he posted claims on his Facebook page that individuals with Antifa were “chiefly” responsible for breaking the doors and windows at the Capitol and then added, “It’s not over, trust me. The purpose of today was to expose Pence as a traitor.”  If these are typical results of his “zest for life,” it is just as well that this enthusiast is no longer with us.

Russia has captured the first major Ukrainian city since it began its invasion last week:  Khersov, a city of nearly 300,000 residents on the Black Sea.  Its heavy shelling and missile attacks have hit residential buildings, an orphanage, kindergartens, and a children’s hospital. 

The International Criminal Court has opened an investigation into possible war crimes committed by Russia in its invasion of Ukraine.  Even if Putin were tried and convicted, it would have little immediate effect.  But it would discourage other senior Russian figures from participating in Putin’s crimes.  If convicted, he would have to avoid traveling outside of Russia afterwards, at any rate if he wishes to avoid the fate of Charles Taylor, former president of Liberia, who is now in prison for life as a result of his arrest in Nigeria in 2006 for his crimes against civilians in Sierra Leone.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 440,114,577; # of deaths worldwide: 5,992,054; # of cases U.S.: 80,760,362; # of deaths; U.S.: 979,637.

In the Great North Mountain region – Under-reporting of the virus – Latest developments in Ukraine – Evening statistics

Today’s hike with the Vigorous Hikers was beautiful and one which took me upon trails I had never seen before, although I’ve hiked in the region for years.  We went along the Cedar Creek Trail and the Bread Road up the ridge of Great North Mountain to the Little Sluice Mountain Trail, and then down via the Bread Road to the Little Stony Creek Trail, all of which were entirely out of my knowledge.  I have indeed gone over the Little Sluice Mountain Trail many times and have passed by the intersection with the Bread Road (which was, as the name indicates, originally a road used for transporting food when the area was inhabited by loggers), but the Bread Road itself I have never been on before.  The portion that descends from the Little Sluice Mountain Trail to the Little Stony Creek Trail is not even an official trail on the maps, but it is quite reasonably well-maintained nonetheless.  Afterwards the hike fell into more familiar lines, continuing up along the Little Stony Creek Trail and eventually returning via the Tuscacora Trail, with a side excursion to the White Rocks Overlook, which peers down into the western portion of the Shenandoah Valley.  The weather was cool in the morning but not cold and eventually it went up to the high 40s in the higher elevations and to the 50s as we descended.  Like many late-winter hikes it was rather miry in spots but not unduly so, especially considering the amount of rain we received last hike.  It covered about 3600 feet of ascent but the gradients were gradual and it did not feel unduly strenuous. 

Officially the number of Americans who have been infected by the coronavirus is something over 80 million, about 24% of the nation’s population.  But the actual figure may be closer to 140 million, or 43% of the population.  The omicron variant caused about 500,000 cases of the virus per day at the beginning of the year, according to data from 72,000 blood samples in January.   In a sense the news is reassuring:  the virus has been asymptomatic in a larger percentage of cases than has been previously supposed.  It does mean, however, that the disease is even more widespread than the official figures would indicate.

In this connection I may mention a story I heard from MG on the hike today.  Her brother and his wife are currently housing their two grandsons, young men in their twenties.  One of them fell ill with COVID and the grandparents rapidly came down with the virus in turn.  The grandparents had been vaccinated and boosted but the two grandchildren, it seems, have not.  It is unclear whether the grandparents were aware of this when they offered their grandsons a home.  The grandsons profess to be extremely religious but they seem to be unaware of the injunction of loving one’s neighbor as oneself.  I daresay they would be quite surprised if they were to hear themselves accused of being guilty of heartlessness by exposing those who offered them shelter to infection on their own account.  The fact that the two elder residents of the house were vaccinated prevented them from being ill to the point of requiring treatment in an ICU; but the case of the grandmother, at any rate, was severe, and the road to her recovery was slow and painful.

At today’s meeting of the UN Human Rights Council, diplomats staged a walkout from a speech by Sergey Lavrov, Russia’s Foreign Minister.  This diplomatic snub presented a dramatic contrast to the standing ovation in reaction to a speech by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Russia, indeed, is showing a strange hesitation in its attacks.  Its deployment of its air force has been far more restrained than military experts had predicted.  The Russian air force appears uncoordinated with ground troop formations.  Multiple Russian columns of troops have been sent forward beyond the reach of their own air defense cover, leaving them vulnerable to attack from Ukrainian forces, including those newly equipped with Turkish drones and U.S. and British anti-tank missiles.  The military convoy north of Kyiv now extends nearly 40 miles.  But it is less formidable than it appears.  Some Russian forces are surrendering to Ukrainian forces without any resistance, being demoralized by lack of fuel and supplies.  It appears, also, that many of the soldiers were hastily conscripted youths who were never even told to expect to be in combat before the war was declared and who have had little or no training. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 438,395,601; # of deaths worldwide: 5,983,116; # of cases U.S.: 80,697,287; # of deaths; U.S.: 977,386.