In the Great North Mountain region – Under-reporting of the virus – Latest developments in Ukraine – Evening statistics
Today’s hike with the Vigorous Hikers was beautiful and one which took me upon trails I had never seen before, although I’ve hiked in the region for years. We went along the Cedar Creek Trail and the Bread Road up the ridge of Great North Mountain to the Little Sluice Mountain Trail, and then down via the Bread Road to the Little Stony Creek Trail, all of which were entirely out of my knowledge. I have indeed gone over the Little Sluice Mountain Trail many times and have passed by the intersection with the Bread Road (which was, as the name indicates, originally a road used for transporting food when the area was inhabited by loggers), but the Bread Road itself I have never been on before. The portion that descends from the Little Sluice Mountain Trail to the Little Stony Creek Trail is not even an official trail on the maps, but it is quite reasonably well-maintained nonetheless. Afterwards the hike fell into more familiar lines, continuing up along the Little Stony Creek Trail and eventually returning via the Tuscacora Trail, with a side excursion to the White Rocks Overlook, which peers down into the western portion of the Shenandoah Valley. The weather was cool in the morning but not cold and eventually it went up to the high 40s in the higher elevations and to the 50s as we descended. Like many late-winter hikes it was rather miry in spots but not unduly so, especially considering the amount of rain we received last hike. It covered about 3600 feet of ascent but the gradients were gradual and it did not feel unduly strenuous.
Officially the number of Americans who have been infected by the coronavirus is something over 80 million, about 24% of the nation’s population. But the actual figure may be closer to 140 million, or 43% of the population. The omicron variant caused about 500,000 cases of the virus per day at the beginning of the year, according to data from 72,000 blood samples in January. In a sense the news is reassuring: the virus has been asymptomatic in a larger percentage of cases than has been previously supposed. It does mean, however, that the disease is even more widespread than the official figures would indicate.
In this connection I may mention a story I heard from MG on the hike today. Her brother and his wife are currently housing their two grandsons, young men in their twenties. One of them fell ill with COVID and the grandparents rapidly came down with the virus in turn. The grandparents had been vaccinated and boosted but the two grandchildren, it seems, have not. It is unclear whether the grandparents were aware of this when they offered their grandsons a home. The grandsons profess to be extremely religious but they seem to be unaware of the injunction of loving one’s neighbor as oneself. I daresay they would be quite surprised if they were to hear themselves accused of being guilty of heartlessness by exposing those who offered them shelter to infection on their own account. The fact that the two elder residents of the house were vaccinated prevented them from being ill to the point of requiring treatment in an ICU; but the case of the grandmother, at any rate, was severe, and the road to her recovery was slow and painful.
At today’s meeting of the UN Human Rights Council, diplomats staged a walkout from a speech by Sergey Lavrov, Russia’s Foreign Minister. This diplomatic snub presented a dramatic contrast to the standing ovation in reaction to a speech by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Russia, indeed, is showing a strange hesitation in its attacks. Its deployment of its air force has been far more restrained than military experts had predicted. The Russian air force appears uncoordinated with ground troop formations. Multiple Russian columns of troops have been sent forward beyond the reach of their own air defense cover, leaving them vulnerable to attack from Ukrainian forces, including those newly equipped with Turkish drones and U.S. and British anti-tank missiles. The military convoy north of Kyiv now extends nearly 40 miles. But it is less formidable than it appears. Some Russian forces are surrendering to Ukrainian forces without any resistance, being demoralized by lack of fuel and supplies. It appears, also, that many of the soldiers were hastily conscripted youths who were never even told to expect to be in combat before the war was declared and who have had little or no training.
Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 438,395,601; # of deaths worldwide: 5,983,116; # of cases U.S.: 80,697,287; # of deaths; U.S.: 977,386.