Month: May 2022

Returning to bus hikes – Complications of international travel – North Korea – Evening statistics

There were various administrative matters to deal with on the part of both the Capital Hiking and the Wanderbirds Clubs.  CHC is losing three Board members, including the President, who is taking a well –deserved rest after serving in the position for years and successfully steering the club through the vagaries of the conditions imposed by the pandemic.  CHC resumed bus hikes on April 23^rd, but we need to ensure that hike leaders will be recruited for hikes scheduled for the third quarter.  Hike leader recruitment has always been an issue with CHC, but the two-year hiatus exacerbates the problem. 

Wanderbirds will be resuming bus hikes at the beginning of July, and in this case as well the process of hike leader recruitment must be conducted energetically.  Wanderbirds has the advantage of a rather larger number of members who have regularly led hikes in the past and have continued to lead even during the pandemic.  But the summer season has traditionally been the most difficult time of the year for finding a sufficient number of hike leaders, both on account of the hot weather and of the fact that many people are traveling during those months.  On the other hand, members have long been wishing for the resumption of bus hikes, with the camaraderie that they have fostered and the fact that the use of a bus means that it is not necessary to drive for an hour or more after hiking eight or ten or twelve miles, so there is hope that leaders are willing to be available.  

My first international trip since the pandemic began is rapidly approaching, and it is a source of mixed emotions.  It will be wonderful to be able to travel abroad again and I am eagerly looking forward to hiking on the Kerry Way, but I am a bit concerned about the return.  LM, who managed to get back after testing positive and being quarantined for days in England, said that the experience was “a real pain,” and I see no reason to disbelieve him.  Travel industry representatives have been continually requesting the Biden administration to lift the COVID test requirement for returning to the country, but so far the administration has not them any encouragement that this requirement will end.  International travel by Americans is at this point 15% lower than it had been at pre-pandemic levels.  Many are deterred from fear of undergoing an experience like that of my friends, who after touring the magnificent scenery of the Lake District were forced to sit in a hotel all day long for days on end, making a frustrating termination to what otherwise would have been a thoroughly enjoyable trip.

The administration is not consistent, however, for travelers to this country by way of land ports or ferry terminals, although still required to show evidence of having been vaccinated, are not required to be tested.  Similar rules apply to those who cross the land borders between the U.S. and Canada or between the U.S. and Mexico. 

The EU, by way of contrast, has dropped all mandates for wearing a mask on an airplane and in airports.  Individual airlines may choose to impose mask mandates of their own.  It will be interesting to see whether my flight to Ireland, which is a United Airlines flight, will impose such a rule and, if so, whether passengers will comply with it.  For my part I will wear the mask continuously through the lift-off and through the landing; I am less worried about the portion of the flight when the plane is well above ground and the air filtration system is running.  Even then, however, I probably will keep it on most of the time, except when I am eating or drinking.

Kim Jong Un has criticized various health officials for slow deliveries of medicine and has mobilized the military – presumably to aid with the aforesaid deliveries; but from the way he talks, it sounds like he is directing them to combat the virus as if it were an army that can be opposed with gunfire.  The number of people now sickened from the virus is approximately 1.2 million, about 4% of the population.  That is merely the official figure.  The country lacks test kits and is in no position to detect asymptomatic cases or those with mild symptoms.  The death toll, which is officially stated to be 50, is almost certainly higher.  “When people die, North Korean authorities will say they’ve died of overwork or from natural deaths, not because of COVID-19,” said Nam Sung-wook, a professor at Korea University in South Korea.  It’s too late at this stage to inoculate the North Koreans, although supplies of vaccines might help to reduce the mortality rate in some high-risk segments of the population (elderly, people with pre-existing conditions, etc.).  For the most part, North Korea is relying on isolating people with symptoms at shelters.  As of yesterday, more than ½ million were in quarantine.

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  522,794,375; # of deaths worldwide: 6,289,611; # of cases U.S.: 84,356,883; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,026,898.  

Hiking among the wildflowers – Finland and NATO – Rumors of Putin’s failing health – Biden’s imitation of Trump tweets – Evening statistics

I helped FH to lead a there-and-back hike on the Appalachian Trail between Manassas Gap and the junction with the unnamed trail that leads to the Verlin Smith Trail and the Thompson Wilderness area.  To tell the truth, initially I was not looking forward to it.  Lately we have not had much luck with the weather these past few weekends, and the forecast was for rain.  But the forecast became less and less threatening as the week worn on, eventually predicting only showers; and in the event not only did no rain fall during the entire hike, but on several occasions gleams of sunshine shone through the clouds, dappling the forest floor below.  The trilliums were past their peak but still numerous.  This section of the AT is generally rich in wildflowers in all seasons except winter, and today proved to be no exception:  we saw an abundance of wild geranium, along with starry chickweed, showy orchis, bloodroot, rue anemone, and May apples, which were just beginning to bloom.  It proved to be a lovely hike and, best of all, not difficult to lead:  we were only six in all, others having been discouraged by the misleading weather report, and they were all capable hikers, so I had no worries about any of them running into difficulties.  

Finnish President Sauli Niinisto called Putin to inform him that Finland has applied for membership in NATO.  Finland has previously refrained from joining NATO; it shares a border with Russia 830 miles long and has been anxious to remain on reasonably cordial terms with its giant neighbor.  But, as Ninisto told Putin, the recent invasion of Ukraine has left him no choice in the matter.  Putin’s long-term strategy appears to be backfiring in a rather spectacular way.  Part of the purpose of the invasion was to intimidate NATO and cause it to diminish its activities.  Instead, NATO has started flexing its military muscles, sending weapons and aid to Ukraine; while both Finland and Sweden, hitherto neutral, are on the verge of joining it.

Rumors about Putin’s health continue to circulate but at this stage they are precisely that:  rumors.  An unnamed Russian oligarch claims that Putin is suffering from blood cancer.  It is certainly possible.  Video footage of his recent meeting with Belarus President Lukashenko shows him with repeated tremors in his arms and legs, and in various public events, including Russia’s Victory Day celebration, he has appeared frail.  But all of this may be wishful thinking.  The Kremlin has stated that while Putin is taking strict precautions during the pandemic, including the use of a long table to meet other political leaders, he remains fit and well – which leads one to believe that the rumors may be true.

Biden has not been as egregious as Trump about the use of tweets, but his record in this respect is far from flawless.  This past Thursday the administration posted a tweet that stated that vaccines were unavailable when Biden took office.  This is of course blatantly untrue; they were first distributed in ths country during the month of December, 2020.  By the time Biden took office, more than 18 million Americans had received at least one dose and about 3 million had been fully vaccinated.  Biden himself had already been vaccinated as well.  Dr. Fauci, when asked about this tweet, seemed quite taken aback when it came out and confirmed to Jake Tapper of CNN, who interviewed on the subject, that the tweet was indeed inaccurate. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  520,805,577; # of deaths worldwide: 6,287,528; # of cases U.S.: 84,197,814; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,026,575.  The incidence rate of the U.S. has been steadily sinking with respect to other countries; there are now 57 nations with higher rates of COVID than ours.  Regrettably, our mortality rate with respect to other countries has not changed:  we are still 18^th on the list. 

More COVID news from abroad:  New Zealand and North Korea – Deborah Birx’s portrayal of the initial response to the pandemic – Evening statistics

Jacinda Ardern, the New Zealand Prime Minister, has tested positive for COVID.  Her reaction is characteristic:  even though parliament sessions are scheduled this coming week for two set-piece events in the emissions reduction plan and the budget, she has conformed with the restrictions she has placed on others and has put herself in quarantine.  She will conduct some administrative work remotely, but much of the interaction with the press, for instance, she has delegated to her deputy, Grant Robertson.  “This is a milestone week for the government and I’m gutted I can’t be there for it,” she said.  “Our emissions reduction plan sets the path to achieve our carbon zero goal and the budget addresses the long-term future and security of New Zealand’s health system.  But as I said earlier in the week, isolating with COVID-19 is a very Kiwi experience this year and my family is no different.”  I cannot stress enough how greatly she differs from American politicians, Republican and Democrat alike, who unabashedly act as though they are “different.”  Some decades ago many American politicians would not have dreamed of claiming to be above the law, but that attitude has passed away from the political life of this country long ago. 

North Korea has admitted that 350,000 of its population have been afflicted with “an obscure febrile disease” that has included fever among its other symptoms.  Further than that, not much information is being disclosed – the mortality rate, for instance.  There is, of course, no respiratory disease other than COVID that is currently spreading so rapidly as to affect hundreds of thousands of people in a short time, but the North Korean government seems to regard COVID as the Disease-That-Must-Not-Be-Named, every bit as fearful as Harry Potter’s associates were of uttering the name of Lord Voldemort.  The country’s medical system ranks 193^rd among the 195 nations of the world and well over 40% of the population are suffering from malnutrition, so it seems likely that COVID will be infecting many more North Koreans in the near future.  Any attempt, however, to obtain reliable statistics from that country is simply a lost cause.  Lina Yoon, a Human Rights Watch researcher, summed up the situation as follows:   “Most North Koreans are chronically malnourished and unvaccinated, there are barely any medicines left in the country, and the health infrastructure is incapable to deal with this pandemic.”

Deborah Birx has recently published a book called Silent Invasion, which goes into great detail about how the Trump administration botched the crisis created by the pandemic.  Her book is of interest because most of the coverage up to this point has focused on Trump alone– I have done as much myself in several entries – whereas she provides details about the rest of the team that formulated the disastrous response to the disease in its initial phases.  Chief among this group was Scott Atlas, the radiologist from whom Trump took epidemiology advice.  Atlas had a habit of repeatedly responding to group emails from her by hitting “Reply All” and then removing her from the list before sending.  Others that she names include presidential Chief of Staff Mark Meadows (who, however, has already received a measure of fame, or rather infamy, for his consistent misrepresentations to the public), vice-presidential Chief of Staff Marc Short (who was mainly concerned about protecting his boss), Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar, the entrenched and inflexible staff of the CDC, the out-of-its-depth staff of the Council of Economic Advisers, the politically wobbly World Health Organization, Governor Kristi Noem of South Dakota, and Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida, who, Birx indicates, knew better but caved to political pressure.  She does praise some participants for quietly facilitating a few positive responses, including, rather surprisingly, Mike Pence and Jared Kushner.  Some governors, also, such as Doug Burgum of North Dakota and Doug Ducey of Arizona, took the pandemic seriously from the beginning. 

Birx is known, of course, for failing to stand up to Trump when he went so wildly astray.  In the book she laments her most public lapse:  when Trump seemed to advocate consuming disinfectant in a live televised briefing, and she feebly and quietly uttered, “Not as a treatment.” She should have been more forceful, she writes, and “should have ignored my deeply ingrained, military-honed instinct not to publicly correct a superior” – which, of course, raises the question of how it is possible for any sane person to consider Donald Trump a superior.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  520,269,695; # of deaths worldwide: 6,286,458; # of cases U.S.: 84,159,845; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,026,485.

The second booster – Perils of being stranded abroad – North Korea admits to having COVID cases – Evening statistics

I am going to appear very inconsistent.  After having expressed doubts about the necessity for taking a second booster, I got one myself yesterday.  I had made the appointment to obtain the pneumonia vaccine, but when I finalized the appointment I decided to request the second booster as well.

The fact is, I’m a bit rattled by the story of my two friends being stranded in England on account of having tested positive for COVID.  I do not want to be in a similar position at the end of my forthcoming trip to Ireland and the U.K.  It is not very amusing to be in quarantine in a foreign city, even in a foreign city where people speak English.  The expense is not trivial either.  I cannot see that being forced to spend ten days in London chained to a hotel room and ordering food from the outside can amount to less than $3000.  Then, too, I will be traveling to Iceland just under two weeks after I return from England; if I were to be placed under quarantine at the end of my stay I would barely have enough time to return to the U.S. and then to travel on the flight to Reykjavik that has been reserved for me.  I still have doubts about the efficacy of a second booster, but under the current circumstances I cannot neglect any precaution. 

A significant segment of the population, despite having been exposed to the virus, have never come down with it, and no one knows why this should be the case.  It is possible that, having been unaffected by the virus for so long a period, I may be among this fortunate group.  But such matters cannot be counted upon.  I would have said that my two friends were in as little danger of getting infected as anyone I know, being in excellent health, unusually active for their age, and reasonably cautious in their personal habits.  But of course while they were traveling in England they dined out at numerous restaurants and were in other milieus in which they mingled with a large mass of people.  I will of necessity be doing the same in Ireland, where I will be on a hiking tour and will be dining in restaurants every morning and evening.  Nor can I claim to have been exceptionally cautious in my own country.  I have not dined out much, but I have shopped in person at grocery stores regularly, have patronized other stores (hardware, electronics, barber shops, etc.) in person as well,  have taken public transit, have traveled on long airplane rides – in short, I have tried to behave as normally as the circumstances attending the pandemic would admit.  For domestic travel the risks are not high, but international travel is another matter and will remain so as long as we need to get tested every time we return to our home country. 

Kim Jong-Un has at long last brought himself to admit that two and two are four.  More specifically, he has acknowledged the presence of COVID in his country and has declared it to be a “severe national emergency ”– as well he might, given that hardly anyone out of the country’s 25 million have been vaccinated.  Areas of Pyongyang have been in lockdown for two days and a rush of panic buying has ensued because no one is certain when the lockdown will end.  The country had closed its borders to nearly all trade and visitors at the start of the pandemic but it tentatively re-opened railroad freight traffic with China in January, which is quite sufficient to provide a vector for the virus.  In fact, the Chinese authorities have shown their private opinion about the claims that the cases are the first that North Korea has endured:  they halted trade last month after a COVID outbreak in Dandong, a city close to the border.  By that time the virus has taken a firm hold on the North Korean population, which its abysmal health care system and the consistent avoidance of the government to admit unpleasant facts can only exacerbate. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  519,619,561; # of deaths worldwide: 6,284,280; # of cases U.S.: 84,032,416; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,025,992.

Hiking in the southern portion of Shenandoah National Park – A near-perfect day – A new member’s impressions of the hiking group – How one descends into squalor – Tom Reed’s change of career – Evening statistics

Today I repeated the hike I led with the Vigorous Hikers nearly a year ago, consisting of a circuit via the Brown Mountain, Rocky Mountain, Big Portal Run, Big Run Loop, and Appalachian Trails.  As was the case last year only three hikers participated.  It is a shame that the long drive seems to discourage so many of the hikers in the group from taking part in it, but we have driven just as far to other hikes, and to my mind this one is as good as any of them.  It is particularly notable for the number of birds that flit through the region:  today, for instance, I saw no fewer than three indigo buntings.  The first part of the hike goes through the Big Run valley, defined by nearly perpendicular rock walls and carpeted with numerous wild flowers, such as starry chickweed, wild geranium, pinxter azaleas, phlox, and even a few dwarf irises.  Then, after lunching at the Big Run Overlook (with its view of the Rockytop ridge joining the main Blue Ridge and of the cliffs of Rocky Mountain and its talus slopes of white Erwin quartzite), it goes east of Skyline Drive along the Appalachian Trail, a section that provides several dramatic overlooks of the valleys both to the east and the west of the ridgeline that the trail traverses. 

It felt like an eon since I had hiked in such conditions, with warm but not sultry temperatures and a cloudless sky.  This spring has been relatively chilly to date and it has had numerous wet days as well.  It is true that the recent rains had filled Big Run to abundance and that the stream crossings proved troublesome at times, but every other respect the hike was ideal.  The ascents are not especially steep, but the one from the bottom of the Big Run valley to the overlook covers 1500 feet in 2.2 miles, and there are three relatively brief but rather steep climbs on the AT whose total adds nearly 1500 additional feet – so it stimulates sufficiently to get the blood flowing in one’s veins. 

I met a new club member at the Centreville commuter area and we carpooled together.  He had hiked a good deal in the past, but he ran into difficulties during the first part of the hike and decided to bail out when we reached Skyline Drive, preferring to wait until I had completed the hike and could drive back to pick him up.  I was a bit reluctant to agree to this, for it meant that he would have to wait for two hours.  In the end, however, I agreed.   I was expecting to find him somewhat aggrieved with the way matters turned out for him, but when I drove back, I found him awaiting me with perfect good humor.  He was quite satisfied with the amount of hiking he had done (nearly 10 miles and at least 1500 of elevation gain) and said that he intended to hike more regularly to be able to withstand the demands of other hikers in the Vigorous Hikers’ schedule.  He also insisted on treating me to coffee at a place where we stopped together on the way back to Centreville – which was, indeed, very refreshing under the circumstances.  He commented with some wonder about the speed with which we moved and he made one remark that I found rather curious:  “How thin and trim you all are!” he exclaimed.  “Not an ounce of superfluous fat on any one of you” – which is an interesting observation from someone who once served in the Israeli army.  I would not describe any of us in precisely those terms, but I suppose it is possible that to some onlookers we might appear to have a lean and hungry look. 

During the hike I conversed with JC, who had been a lawyer before he retired and who had in the course of his career had occasion to prosecute prominent officials, including several well-known lawyers, who had indulged in questionable practices in order to support their expensive lifestyle.  In some cases they had been former colleagues and friends of his, and he spoke of them with more compassion than I would have shown in his place.  But he had known many of them at the beginning of their careers, when they certainly had no intention at that time of indulging in nefarious practices – had even, in some cases, displayed a certain amount of idealism.  It takes a strong head, however, to withstand the pressures that accompany the sudden possession of large amounts of money.  These promising young attorneys, originally spoken of as being exceptionally fortunate, would win a few cases that provided large rewards, and then they would get swept up into a lifestyle that involved an expensive city residence, a yacht, a country house, and so on.  And then it might happen that a case from which they anticipated lavish fees would be decided against them or other similar accidents would occur that provided a disastrous blow to their scheme of finance.  And they would be forced to borrow money in order to maintain their expensive way of living – only temporarily, to be sure – and by degrees they would get deeper and deeper in debt, until finally to be driven to obtain money by any means, fair or foul.  And so they would degenerate into the final phase, being discovered in their defalcations or malpractices and being arraigned in court.  In most of these cases all traces of spirit or manliness desert them by the time of that sad last phase, even to the point of their sobbing in public and groveling for mercy from the judge passing sentence upon them. 

It was a strange sort of milieu that he described, to my notions at any rate.  For most of my professional life I have associated with engineers, and such stories are much less frequent among them – not because engineers are necessarily more virtuous than lawyers, but because the opportunities for their breaking the law on an extravagant scale are much less common.  But certainly no profession is immune from such temptations.  The fate of the unfortunate John McAfee, who retired from his career as inventor of security software with a fortune of $100 million and who descended in the course of two decades to bankruptcy, tax evasion, imprisonment, and, eventually, suicide, provides a melancholy example of the adage that Mammon has as many martyrs as God Himself.  

Republican Congressman Tom Reed of New York announced that he will resign his seat, effective at the end of today, cutting his last term a few months short. Reed announced his retirement from Congress after being accused of sexual misconduct. He is leaving to join Prime Policy Group, a Washington D.C. bipartisan lobbying group.   Happily, he will in his new position continue to carry the banner for his party’s principles.  He vows in particular to lobby for legislation that would compel all of the women he abused to carry any children to term that they may have conceived after succumbing to his enforced embraces  – no, on second thought I think I made that last part up.  

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  518,335,259; # of deaths worldwide: 6,279,988; # of cases U.S.: 83,778,713; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,025,104.

Hikes in Shenandoah and Sky Meadows – Another winery visit – COVID and international travel – More nation-wide contention about abortion – Evening statistics

Friday and Saturday were wet and dreary.  The clouds lingered on Sunday but thankfully the rain came to an end after falling almost continually for 48 hours.  It was not the most promising of conditions under which to lead a hike, but nonetheless MM and I led a bus hike for the Capital Hiking Club on Sunday.  Normally this club hikes on Saturdays, but on this weekend the bus was not available on the 7^th.  In the event, it worked out to our advantage; we were leading a hike that ascended Hawksbill and ended at the Stony Man Overlook and the trails, which are very rocky in some areas, would not have been pleasant to navigate under constant rainfall. 

Despite the fog and mist that obscured most of the views, the hike came off splendidly.  Capital Hiking Club is based on Meetup, and while this system has advantages, it has drawbacks as well.  In particular, many sign up for a hike or two almost at random, in some cases greatly over-estimating their capabilities.  I have been on several in the past that ended in the group waiting at the end for a long time for one or two stragglers.  But nothing like that occurred today.  Every one of the hikers, even those hiking with the club for the first time, handled the trails well and the amount of time between the first and the last of the hikers to arrive at the bus was brief for both the moderate and the long hikes.  On the overlook itself the clouds had lifted and we had birds-eye views of the Page Valley and the town of Luray, the vegetation appearing unusually lush and green as a result of the recent rain.  They all enjoyed the hike.  A few of the first-time members became club members and we received two volunteers to act as hike leaders – who, indeed, are greatly needed. 

Today was the first mild and sunny day we have had in the course of a week.  Various hiking friends and I went together to the Lost Mountain section of Sky Meadows.  We have hiked within Sky Meadows fairly frequently during the pandemic – it is a convenient distance from DC and is reached via major traffic arteries without necessitating the use of any gravel roads – but we do not go to the Lost Mountain section very often.   I “led” a hike there, but “explored” would be a better word for what I actually did, for it had been a long time since I had been there and I was not altogether certain of the route to take.  But I managed to piece it together.  We used the counterclockwise route for the loop, the preferable way to ascend the mountain:  the steeper portion occurs during the beginning of the ascent, making the descent towards the end more gradual.  In addition, the views are better; as we descend, the there is one switchback that emerges from the belt of trees to provide a clear view of the meadow below and of the ridgeline over which the Appalachian Trail runs, whereas anyone who ascends by the way we went downward would have to look backward to see the same view. 

Afterwards we went to the Delaplane winery, a first visit for many of us.  We had a wonderful time there.  The winery allows customers to bring their own food to the tables on the deck, which overlooks Sky Meadows and the surrounding area, and the weather was perfect:  warm but not hot and not at all humid – somewhat surprisingly, in view of all of the precipitation for the past several days; and of course everyone provided food and there naturally was an abundance of wine.  There were eight of us in all and we emptied at least three bottles among us.

But even among this idyllic setting we had a reminder that the pandemic is still to be reckoned with.  The hike was originally organized by LM, who planned to lead it after his return from the Lake District in England.  But just the day before we received news that he and one of the other members of the group with whom he was traveling tested positive for COVID and are currently quarantined in England for at least ten days. 

We commented among ourselves about the futility of the regulations that the U.S. has imposed upon travelers.  Initially it seemed advisable to test travelers from abroad and to delay their return until their recovery:  we were still trying to contain the virus, and the effects of the virus were much more severe than they are now.  But at this point the virus has spread all over the country – as noted earlier, it is quite possible that as much as 60% of the population has been affected – while the prevalence of newer and milder variants, combined with the fact that three-quarters of the adult population has been vaccinated, indicates that such precautions are no longer needed.  The European countries have jettisoned them:  it is not necessary to get tested to enter them.    This past Thursday major U.S. airlines, business and travel groups, and other companies urged the White House on Thursday to abandon the pre-departure testing requirements for international travelers.  It is not the first appeal of this nature; many corporations in the tourist industry, as well as several health experts, have asked the administration repeatedly during March and April to imitate the example of Great Britain, Germany, and Canada, among others, in this matter.  So far the White House has not responded. 

Abortion continues to be a rallying cry for both parties.  Democrats are attempting to pass legislation that explicitly entitles women to decide their own fate when they become impregnated, while Mitch McConnell has openly stated that a national abortion ban would be “possible” once the Republicans gain control of the Senate and the House as a result of the midterm elections.  Perhaps the most arbitrary pronouncement on the subject came from Governor Tate Reeves of Mississippi.  Mississippi has a trigger law set to ban abortion immediately if the Supreme Court overturns the Roe v. Wade decision.  An interview he conducted with CNN correspondent Jake Tapper including the following exchange:

JAKE TAPPER: Assuming SCOTUS overturns Roe, Mississippi will force girls & women who are victims of incest to carry the child to term. Can you explain why that is the law?

GOV. REEVES: Because in 2007 the Mississippi legislature passed it.

This argument is roughly in alignment with that of Ring Lardner’s character in “The Young Immigrunts”:  “’Shut up,’ he explained.”

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  517,592,255; # of deaths worldwide: 6,277,573; # of cases U.S.: 83,664,501; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,024,718.

COVID and excess deaths – An unfortunate cruise ship – Women in Afghanistan and in the U.S. – The cautionary tale of Matthias Rimmi – Evening statistics

We have received reminders recently that it may be premature to declare the pandemic over just yet. 

Officially the death toll from COVID is something over 6 million – something under 0.1% of the global population.  But this week the WHO announced that the number of excess deaths, for which COVID undoubtedly accounts the greater part, is much higher, possibly as much as 15 million, nearly one in 500.  In India particularly, the number of excess deaths is 4.7 million – about a third of the global excess deaths and about 9 times the amount of officially reported COVID-related deaths.  Other nations show similar signs of under-reporting of deaths:  twice as high as the government’s official tally of COVID-19 deaths in Mexico, about 12 times as great as the official COVID-19 toll in Egypt, eight times as high in Pakistan, seven times as high in Indonesia, three times as high in Russia.  In the U.S. the death toll may well be over twice as high as the official number.  Although most of the excess deaths were caused by COVID-19 itself, some of the deaths were caused indirectly by the disease:  the pandemic has made it more difficult to get medical care for ailments such as heart attacks and treatments such as surgical operations.

The CDC has dropped all warnings for cruise travel, but today a Carnival Cruise Line ship docked at Seattle, with over 200 passengers who have been stricken with COVID.  They are now currently strung out in various hotels in Seattle, undergoing quarantine.  It is unclear how much of a crisis this situation is:  at this point most of those who tested positive are asymptomatic.  But it is obvious that the cruise company was unprepared for handling such a scenario.  Passengers complained about long waits for meals, not being about to get ahold of medical staff, and not being properly isolated.  For my own part, I am ready to take off my mask on an airplane during flight, where the air is continually filtered, but I would not venture on what some have called “floating Petri dishes” while we are still in a pandemic. 

This is not a good time to be a woman.  In Afghanistan the new government decreed that all women must veil their faces in public.  And by “veils” they do not mean those thin light gauzy ones that brides in this country customarily wear on their wedding day, but thick, heavy, uncompromising burqas that cover the entire body from the top of the head down to the feet, with a mesh screen that allows the wearer to see only what is directly in front of her.  One can imagine the comfort such garments provide during the summer, where temperatures in many parts of the country average 90 days during July and August.   The Taliban government has also closed girls’ high schools and recently introduced rules limiting women’s ability to travel without a male chaperone.

Somewhat closer to home, not only are various states attempting (and in some cases succeeding) to make abortions all but impossible to obtain, but Justice Samuel Alito of the Supreme Court has drafted an “opinion” endorsed by a majority of other Supreme Court justices for overturning the Roe vs. Wade decision that enabled women to have access to abortions.  Justice John Roberts denounced in ringing terms the iniquity of those who leaked this draft to the public; about the iniquity of the Supreme Court stepping outside of its judicial function and attempting to legislate on its own, completely bypassing the Senate and the House in the process, he is stricken with silence.

The body of Matthias Rimml, a 35-year-old professional mountain guide from Tirol, Austria, was located on Denali, the tallest peak in North America.  He had already acclimated to the altitude by means of recent climbs and, although he had planned to climb Denali “alpine style” (traveling fast with light gear) he still was carrying a sufficient amount of fuel and food for ten days.  He began his climb April 27^th from the Kahiltna Glacier base camp at 7,200 feet, and his last known call to his friend was on April 30^th , when he “reported being tired, but he was not in distress.” It was unclear whether he intended to climb higher or to return to his camp at 14,000 feet. 

My cousin recently asked me whether I knew of another mountain climber (a relative of one of his friends) who had also met his death on difficult peak (Snowdonia).  This person’s name was not familiar to me, and I explained to my cousin that while I certainly spend much of my time on mountains I am not a mountain climber in any sense of the word.  I have gone up several “fourteeners” in Colorado and have been on the Via Ferrata in Italy, but none of these excursions required any special equipment and they never lasted longer than half a day.  Still, the story of Matthias Rimmi is something of a warning.  He was not a novice who blundered his way into snowy oblivion, but an experienced climber who habitually ascended thousands of meters during a single season.   One reason that his body was found relatively quickly was that even though he was ascending on his own he periodically issued bulletins to a close friend, and when that friend heard no check-in calls for a few days, he notified the park authorities.  The most likely explanation was that he fell while attempting the steep traverse between Denali Pass at 18,200 feet and the 17,200-foot plateau, a notoriously treacherous stretch of the West Buttress route.  He took risks, certainly, but they were controlled risks based upon the experience of many past excursions.  It took only a single misstep to result in his death.  And I also take risks on some of my hikes – risks that are by no means as daunting as the ones he faced, but risks nonetheless – it is possible that one could end in misfortune if I grow too careless or over-confident.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  516,905,372; # of deaths worldwide: 6,275,649; # of cases U.S.: 83,567,707; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,024,525.

The long “final” stage of the pandemic – Another January 6^th participant pleads guilty – Evening statistics

From a social point of the view the pandemic is over already.  The mask mandate, of course, has been overturned and people are deciding for themselves whether or not to wear masks.  As I could perceive while performing various shopping errands, several are not bothering.  Today, for instance, I went to a supermarket, where not only were the majority of the customers mask-less, but the cashiers, while nominally each wearing one, tended to let their masks slip continually to expose their noses and mouths, thereby rendering the masks useless.  The anti-vaxxers continue to denounce the “conspiracy” of the pharmaceutical companies and to promote alternative quack remedies, but only occasionally.   They seem to be realizing that they have lost their self-imposed battle:  over 75% of everyone in the country 18 years or older are fully vaccinated and nearly 50% have received at least one booster. 

The omicron variant of COVID is one of the most infectious diseases among humans known to science, but its mortality rate and that of its sub-variants remain relatively low.  The mortality rate of the omicron variant is about 0.13%, as opposed to 4.25% during the height of the pandemic, when the delta variant was dominant.  The rate is not quite at the level of seasonal flu, which ranges from 0.06% to 0.09%, but it is at any rate comparable to a disease that has long been accepted as endemic.  And indeed the status of COVID greatly resembles the status of influenza in this nation at this point.  It is now regarded as severe, but not so severe as to warrant disrupting everyday activities, while people are more or less becoming resigned to the prospect of getting a COVID vaccine periodically just as we now receive annual influenza vaccines. 

Our health care system is no longer undergoing the great strain it endured while the pandemic was at its height.  Hospitalizations of patients afflicted with COVID have declined by nearly 90% since January.  Many countries, such as the U.K., Denmark, and Spain, are treating COVID as an endemic disease already.  Dr. Fauci said last week that we are currently out of the pandemic phase, although he later back-pedaled, saying that we are “out of the full-blown explosive pandemic phase,” but that he was not officially declaring COVID to be endemic yet. 

We appear to be at the point where fluctuations in the disease cause only minimal change in people’s economic and social behavior – what is sometimes referred to as “individual endemicity.”  But we have not yet reached the stage at which COVID-19 exists at a predictable level and does not require society-defining intervention, nor are we quite at the stage where the economic impact of the disease has resolved.  The difficulties we are currently enduring as a result of supply chains being under stress is an example of the economic aftermath of COVID that we are still enduring.  That is likely to last for some time even after the pandemic comes officially to an end. 

This official pronouncement is not likely to occur in this week or even within the next several weeks.  We do not know at this point when significant new variants will emerge, nor whether they will be comparable with omicron or more severe or milder.  And while the rate of infections is steadily declining in most parts of the world, it is still rising in several nations, chiefly those in Latin America and Africa. 

In other news, William Todd Wilson has become the third Oath Keepers member to plead guilty to seditious conspiracy for his participation in the riot of January 6, 2021.  Fellow-members Joshua James and Brian Ulrich pleaded guilty to the charge earlier this year and agreed to cooperate with the government.  This enterprising vacationer drove to DC on January 5 equipped with an AR-15-style rifle, a pistol, ammunition, body armor, a camouflaged combat uniform, pepper spray, a large walking stick intended for use as a weapon, and a pocketknife:  the sort of gear that I must admit many visitors to the nation’s capital in the past have decided to be most appropriate for touring the city.  The Wikitravel website contains an extensive entry about Washington, but it does not mention assaulting and beating up law enforcement officers as one of its attractions:  an inexplicable omission, which Wilson and other holiday-makers of his stamp will doubtless be glad to correct whenever a new edition of the entry is required.  During this week alone, Thomas Webster, a retired NYPD officer, was found guilty of injuring a DC police officer with a flagpole during the attack on the Capitol; Kevin Creek, a former Marine from Georgia, pleaded guilty to hitting and kicking a police officer; and Marshall Neefe, a civilian from Pennsylvania and a member of QAnon, pleaded guilty to conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding and assaulting, resisting, or impeding officers during a court hearing.  Neefe’s case is especially noteworthy:  he had brought nothing more than a wooden club to proceedings, proclaiming after the attack that he would be “bringing the next time.”  But he along with several of the other wayfarers hoisted and pushed a large metal sign frame, at least 8 feet tall and 10 feet wide, and “supported by large casters that were approximately the size of a man’s head” into a defensive line of Metropolitan Police Department officers attempting to prevent the crowd from further advancing on the west front plaza of the Capitol.  The image on the sign was a large photo of Donald Trump, which certainly is a most suitable insignia for hindering and maiming members of the police.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  515,203,960; # of deaths worldwide: 6,268,096; # of cases U.S.: 83,336,115; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,022,329.

Requiem for a (mental) lightweight – Obliviousness of the Capitol rioters – Selection for the grand jury investigating Trump’s actions in Georgia during the election – Putin’s questionable health – Debate about the second booster – Evening statistics

Philip Anderson has provided, with tears in his eyes, a eulogy for Roseann Boyland, one of the attendees of the invasion of the Capitol on January 6, 2021, and who, as he claims, suffocated under a pile of 30 bodies of people who collapsed after the police sprayed them in order to render them unconscious.  He himself nearly underwent the same fate that day, but had gotten his arm over his head before the others fell on top of him, thereby giving him enough space in which to breathe even after he fell into unconsciousness.

As a matter of course, he places all of the blame upon the police for the stress he endured and for this woman’s death, with none whatever allotted to himself and his fellow conspirators.   As it happens, the autopsy tells a different story:  the cause of Boyland’s death was an amphetamine overdose.  She had, it appears, been struggling with drug addiction for some time.  But Anderson’s account is typical of the majority of the people who assailed the Capitol.  “It was all very confusing,” said Shawn Bradley Witzeman, who attended the rally and was subsequently arrested and charged with violent entry and disorderly conduct on Capitol grounds. “I don’t think the large majority of people who were there had any idea that what they were doing was illegal.” 

I have, I admit, been over-hasty in writing off all of the participants as being activated by malice and treachery.  I should have remembered the dictum of my favorite philosopher, Lucy Van Pelt from Charles Schultz’s Peanuts:

“Have you ruled out stupidity?” 

It appears that progress has at long last been made in the investigation concerning Trump’s attempt to derail the voting result of the election in Georgia.  A special grand jury was selected today, consisting of 23 grand jurors and three alternates.  It is a beginning, but there is a long way to go.  The jurors won’t convene until next month and even then they won’t be meeting every week – understandably, for the grand jury investigation may take months to complete.  There was a pool of over 200 people from whom the jurors were selected, and they were selected amid a set of fairly rigorous requirements.  To qualify, a grand juror must be at least 18, must be U.S. citizens and must have lived in Fulton County for the past six months. Anyone who was an elected official or has been for the last two years, anyone convicted of a felony, or anyone who served on a Fulton County jury or grand jury in the last year was disqualified to serve on this one.  In addition, anyone who was convinced beforehand that a crime was committed during Trump’s attempt to force Brad Raffensperger to “find” the votes needed for him to win the state was similarly eliminated.  This last criterion certainly would have excluded me.

Vladimir Putin is set to undergo cancer surgery and to delegate power to Nikolai Patrushev, head of the Russian federal police’s Security Council, while he is incapacitated during and after the procedure.  The surgery and its aftermath are predicted to incapacitate Putin for two or three days.  An anonymous Russian insider said that Putin’s cancer is progressing but added that he didn’t want to give anyone “false hope.”  Putin has appeared sickly of late and uncharacteristically fidgety as well, causing some observers to surmise that he is afflicted with several other maladies, including Parkinson’s disease, in addition to his cancer.  Indeed, some rather odd rumors are circulating about the nature of the remedies he has resorted to – such as bathing in the blood extracted from deer antlers, which are hacked off while they are growing and still full of fresh blood (an “alternative therapy” used in the Altai region, as well as in Khazakstan and Mongolia).  How his condition will affect the war in Ukraine is very uncertain.  Patrushev is said to be even more hardline than Putin but his grip on the nation’s government is less secure.  If Putin is incapacitated longer than predicted, the Russian government officials who are concerned about the nation’s economic and military losses from the conflict (Russia has already lost several generals, an almost unheard-of result in any other instance of a major nation waging war) may push back against continuing to pursue operations in Ukraine, but this is not to be counted on.

The fourth dose of the vaccine has become widely available, but there is still considerable debate as to whether it is necessary or even desirable.  A recent study concludes that although a fourth dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine offers protection against serious illness for at least six weeks after the shot, it provides only short-lived protection against infection, which wanes after just four weeks.  In any case, Americans who have already been boosted have shown low rates of hospitalization and mortality from COVID and it is unclear what benefit, if any, a second booster will provide.  Dr. Marty Makary, a medical commentator and public policy expert from Johns Hopkins University, criticized the FDA for approving fourth doses for all Americans 50 years and older:  “At the crux of the broad opposition to second boosters is the recognition of B- and T-cells, which public-health officials have long ignored.  They talk only about antibody levels, which tend to decline in the months after vaccination.  B- and T-cells, activated by the primary vaccine series or an infection (and augmented by a single booster in older patients), are highly and durably effective at preventing serious illness from COVID.” 

Several other medical professionals agree with this assessment.  “There are very few, if any, people who in my opinion require a fourth dose” (Dr. Anna Durbin, an international public health expert at Johns Hopkins University).  ‘In general, it’s too early to recommend a fourth dose, except for those who are immune-compromised” (Dr. Paul Goepfert, professor of medicine at the University of Alabama at Birmingham).  “Where’s the evidence that somebody over 50 benefits from a fourth dose? Because the evidence to date appears to support the possibility for those over 65, although I haven’t, we haven’t, seen all the data . . . but where’s the evidence for a 50-to-64 year old? Where’s that evidence? Because absent that evidence, then there shouldn’t be this recommendation” (Dr Eric Rubin, editor in chief of the New England Journal of Medicine, and member of the FDA’s Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee).  This last statement refers to the fact that Pfizer asked FDA approval only of second boosters for people 65 and older, and corporate officials were probably as surprised as everyone else when the FDA recommended them all those over 50 as well.

All in all, it seems best to defer the second booster until more evidence comes in.  Take medicine because you must, not because you can – that has always been my attitude in such matters, and I see no reason to alter it in this case.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  513,794,980; # of deaths worldwide: 6,262,846; # of cases U.S.: 83,122,109; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,020,958.

Increased activity – A social visit – Considerations for international travel – Difficulties of using Irish transit websites – Wildflowers in the Hazel River area – Leading a bus hike – Mask mandates – Indirect adverse effects of the pandemic – Evening statistics

Although the amount of activity I’ve done over the past several days would not have been unusual before the pandemic started, it seems like a great deal after the leisurely existence imposed by COVID restrictions.  During the past several days my time has been filled up, not only with hiking, but with social visiting, auto maintenance, organizing hiking events, making trip arrangements for the forthcoming hiking tour in Ireland, registering for the AT Vista conference in August, and so on. 

Wednesday was relatively uneventful, consisting of dropping the car off in the morning for an oil change and recharging the air conditioning system, mowing the lawn, tending the yard, and performing various errands.  I’m not sure why, but I fell into a fit of lassitude during the evening and felt too drowsy to write much.  Part of the reason is that so little is changing, as far as the pandemic is concerned.  We seem to be perpetually on the cusp of emerging from it, but never quite managing it.  Whatever else may be said of the earlier months, they certainly did not lack for drama.  Now we’ve been in a state of suspended animation for weeks on end, and there appears to be no prospect of a change in this respect for the near future.

Thursday was more agreeably occupied, visiting my friends EG and HG, lunching with them in their beautiful house (they have an extensive collection of intaglios that adorn the walls), admiring the burst of color in their garden as a result of the mid-spring flowering and of their azaleas in particular, and conversing about their recent travel experiences to visit their daughters’ families and, eventually, about the gradual diminishing of travel restrictions and what to expect for trips abroad in the future. 

Trips to European nations have been considerably easier.  It is no longer necessary to undergo COVID testing in advance to entering them, for instance.  The lifting of the mask mandate does have some positive aspect.  There is no doubt that it is not especially comfortable to wear one during a flight that lasts eight hours or more.  It does not appear much of a risk to forego mask-wearing on an airplane when its filtration system is actively running; but certainly it is prudent to don one before the plane reaches about 10000 feet in elevation to ensure that the filtration system is active (it takes some time to ramp up) and after landing, when the system is shut down. 

Apart from that EG and HG tell me that they are experiencing something of my own sense of being swamped by activity and events after the somewhat glacial pace of existence we have been undergoing while the pandemic was at its height.   Indeed, one reason for the timing of the visit is that we’re not sure when we’ll have the opportunity to repeat it.  I will be leaving for Ireland in the middle of May and will be away for nearly three weeks, and then I will be in Iceland during the latter part of June; while they have several commitments of their own.  Not only is social life beginning to move again, but people are afflicted by a sense of having to make up for lost time, which in some cases is making the pace of our lives all but frenetic.

Friday was devoted to making various trip arrangements.  The main part of the trip to Ireland is a hiking tour, which has already been plotted out in advance.  But I will then be going to England to visit friends there, which means traveling to Dublin, booking a hotel to stay overnight, booking a flight for the following day, and purchasing the necessary train tickets to make the appropriate connections.  The websites for Irish transit are not user-friendly.  This is not merely my personal assessment; at one point I became so frustrated in trying to obtain the tickets I needed that I logged into various travel forums to obtain advice from other, more experienced travelers.  They all said the same thing:  the Irish websites are to all practical purposes unusable.  Part of the problem is that the train and the bus stations all have two names, one English and one Gaelic.  Still, I have booked train trips in Wales, where the same condition applies, without any particular difficulty.  It appears, however, that both trains and buses are rarely full and that purchasing tickets on the spot is feasible for all but the most exceptional cases.

I also was occupied plotting out the hiking schedule for the Wanderbirds during the third quarter of the year, having recently assumed the position of Director of Trails for the club, as well as exchanging Emails with my co-leader for the hike I led today.  These exchanges carried over into Saturday, whose main activity, however, was joining various Wanderbirds friends in the Hazel Mountain area for the purpose of viewing various wildflowers:  rue anemone, wood betony, bloodroot, showy orchis (just beginning to flower), bluets, trillium, among others.  The highlight of the trip was a patch of pink lady-slippers along the White Rocks Trail, on one of its highest points before the trail descends to the Hazel River. 

Finally, today I led a hike for the Capital Hiking Club on the Appalachian Trail from Raven Rocks Rd. to the U.S. 40 parking area adjacent to the bridge over I-70.  It was notable for being the first bus hike I have led for over two years, with the exception of the Calvert Cliffs I led in August, 2021, during that brief period when CHC resumed the use of buses and then was forced to fall back on carpool hikes after one month, on account of the resurgence of the virus.  But now CHC has reverted again to bus hikes, very much to the gratification of the club members.  Many of these live in DC itself and do not have cars, relying on public transportation for the purposes of commuting, running daily errands, and pursuing such diversions as restaurant dining, concert-going, museum-visiting, and so on. 

Officially CHC has a mask mandate in place for the bus hikes, but recently the Board decided to rescind it after the CDC mask mandate was overturned, and to permit eating and drinking on the bus.  The vote to do away with the club’s mandate was nearly unanimous, with only one Board member voting in favor of retaining it:  me. 

Without delving into the political implications of Judge Mizelle’s decision, I must observe that this decision was based on legal considerations only.  Judge Mizelle claims that in imposing the mandate, the CDC overstepped its authority.  This may possibly be true; I do not have the legal expertise to argue one way or the other on the question.  But from the medical point of view, at least, this decision does not make the wearing of masks on public transportation any the less advisable. 

I will admit, however, that it would have been difficult to enforce the mandate on this particular occasion.  The weather forecast called for only occasional showers, but the amount of rain was much greater than predicted, and accompanied at times by chilly winds.  It would have been impossible for the hikers to hover outside the bus while consuming snacks and drinks under these circumstances, as we usually did and presumably will continue to do whenever the weather conditions are more favorable.  Under the current conditions, my co-leader and I had no choice but to bring the snacks onto the bus and allow the hikers to eat them within the bus, which of course meant that they removed their masks while eating and drinking. 

Despite the bad weather, the hike was a success.  Many of the hikers expressed gratitude for the opportunity of being able to go so far afield without being forced to drive such distances on their own (and several, as noted above, do not have cars of their own) and thereby to have the opportunity to hike long distances again.  Indeed, many who in the past relied on the bus for transport to trailheads have become slower and less agile as a result of the hiatus in hiking activities imposed by the pandemic.  There were two long hikers in particular, whom I knew from past experience to be strong hikers, who had great difficulty in completing the hike.  FH, who was the sweep for the hike, told me that accompanying them during the first ascent (from Raven Rocks Rd. to Buzzard Knob) was agonizingly slow.  It was fortunate that an experienced hiker like her was the sweep; towards the end she prodded them by taking the lead and urging them to quicken their pace.  They managed to reach the bus in slightly over 5 hours (the hike is about 13 miles long and 2300 feet of elevation gain), so the end result was not bad.  But they provided an example, all the same, of how the pandemic has obtruded in the otherwise active habits of many and the toll taken by the inertia that have been thrust upon them.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 513,524,301; # of deaths worldwide: 6,261,385; # of cases U.S.: 83,081,982; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,020,851.