Month: August 2022

Illness and recovery – Hiking in Shenandoah – The benefits of continued activity – Continued decline in national life expectancy – Evening statistics

It has taken an effort of will to resume writing in the journal, because directly after the return flight I became ill with the flu – not seriously, but enough to confine me indoors for a few days.  The flight was air conditioned to an unmerciful degree, aggravating the effects of the fever that developed during my travel time.  By degrees I recovered, but then my attention was occupied over the weekend, first by meeting with others for plans about the projected trip to Rocky Mountain National Park in September and then by leading a hike for the Wanderbirds. 

The hike was delightful, starting at the overlook at Jewell Hollow in Shenandoah National Park – one of the most beautiful, in my opinion, in the entire park – and descending down the Nicholson Hollow Trail to the valley close to the base of Old Rag.  The longer hike, which I led, circled around Stony Man before descending to Nicholson Hollow.  We lunched at the Little Stony Man overlook, with its 180-degree to the west into the Shenandoah Valley and its bird’s-eye view of Luray.  The foliage remains unusually green for this time of year, on account of the abundance of rain this summer.  Along the Nicholson Hollow Trail there is a swimming hole that features a little waterfall, so that it is possible to swim towards it and position oneself underneath it.  The water pounding on one’s shoulders has something of the effect of a massage. 

It would appear that activity of this nature contributes to one’s general health well into old age, which should come as a surprise to no one.  The explanation is somewhat complicated.  For a long time it was thought that human cells could replicate more or less indefinitely.  This assumption was challenged by Leonard Hayflick, who discovered the principle of cell senescence in 1960.  The discovery came as a result of an accident.  Dr. Hayflick was cultivating human fetal cells for a project on cancer biology, when he noticed that they stopped dividing after about 50 population doublings.  Although cell cultures often fail on account of factors such as contamination, he discovered that these cell cultures had all stopped dividing at the same point.  This phenomenon eventually was called “the Hayflick limit.”

Cell senescence actually provides a useful function.  Senescent cells suppress the development of cancer by limiting the capacity of cells to keep dividing. It happens throughout our lives, triggered by DNA damage and the shortening of telomeres, structures that cap and protect the ends of chromosomes. Senescent cells also play a role in wound healing, embryonic development, and childbirth.  Unfortunately, when they become too numerous they begin to manifest themselves in the form of old-related diseases (Alzheimer’s in particular).  Our immune system becomes less effective in eliminating senescent cells as we become older, but it appears that regular and vigorous exercise is the best way to keep our immune system efficient in this respect.  It may not make us live longer, but it will help us to be less prone towards the age-related diseases that are now affecting a substantial amount of our populace.

Actually our level of life expectancy has dropped still further in 2021, the second year in a row that this has happened.  During the years of 2020 and 2021, the average lifespan of Americans has diminished by nearly three years.  COVID is largely to blame, but it is not the only factor.  The suicide rate is now on the rise, as is the number of drug overdoses. The suicide rate had actually fallen in 2020, as often happens in early phases of wars and long-term natural disasters; but over the past year suicides have steadily increased.  COVID has also affected our mortality rate in indirect ways.  Many have been subjected to prolonged periods of enforced inactivity after contracting the disease, in correlation, and deaths from heart-related have risen over the past two years.  Again, alcoholism has increased, resulting in a greater number of deaths from liver disease.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 607,791,123; # of deaths worldwide: 6,494,899; # of cases U.S.: 96,343,913; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,071,415.

I took another journey this past week, but a domestic trip, not an international one.  The purpose, primarily, was to attend a Laurel and Hardy Convention.  I am not as much a diehard fan as some of the other attendees are, but they are iconic figures of American film comedy and, in addition, the conventions are grand social events, enabling attendees to meet friends from various part of the country whom they otherwise might not have an occasion to meet for months or even years.

The convention took place in Albuquerque, NM, and I traveled there by airplane.  Although domestic travel is a good deal less complicated than international travel, travel by airplane remains travail.  It simplified matters that I was using carry-on luggage, with none to check in, and that I departed from Reagan National Airport rather than from Dulles.  The flights were on time and I encountered none of the frustrations that I met with on my previous international flights.  But flight routes have diminished over the past several years.  Previously direct flights from Washington to Albuquerque were available; none exist now.  I had to use flights with layovers in Atlanta both coming and going.  The airport at Atlanta is very efficiently run and the ongoing journey, at least, had no particular complications.  Going back was another matter.  The layover was originally only 35 minutes; and since boarding for flights closes 15 minutes before flight departure time, that left only 20 minutes for deplaning, locating the gate for the connection, and scurrying to that gate in time to board.  Fortunately the flight to Atlanta arrived early.  I would have missed my connection had it simply been on time, for it took 15 minutes to deplane. 

The convention took place from Thursday (the 18^th) and ended on Sunday.  I flew in on Tuesday (the 16^th) and left on the following Monday to allow myself some leisure in addition to the convention activities.  There was little to do on Tuesday evening except to have dinner and stroll about the Old Town for a bit (the hotel is on the outskirts of Old Town).  On Wednesday I drove to the trailhead for the La Luz Trail and went up to the Sandia Summit.  This trail starts out with a continual but very moderate upward angle and is relatively clear of rocks for the first five miles.  Then it becomes steeper and its switchbacks pass to and fro a talus for about 2½ miles. After that the trail reaches the ridgeline and ends in a junction, with one trail going to the summit and the other going to a tramway.  The trail to the summit is about ¾ mile and is slightly steeper than the preceding trail, but not excessively so.  I had done this route several years earlier and I remembered this last portion as being particularly difficult.  But I suppose I have become accustomed to steep trails over the years, for this time it did not appear especially taxing.  Ironically the best views were not on the summit, where clouds were gathering, but at various overlooks several hundred feet lower.  The entire city of Albuquerque can be seen on the plain below, as well as the cinder volcanoes and Mount Taylor in the distance.  I completed the hike in about 2½ hours – not too bad, when one considers that the total ascent is about 3775 feet. 

I had started early and thus it was not quite 10:30 when I completed the ascent.  I went along the ridgeline in a more leisurely fashion; it is slightly under 2 miles to the tramway if one sticks to the trail, but I detoured from time to time in order to stop at various overlooks and to visit the Kiwanis Cabin midway between the tram and the summit.  From there I took the tram down towards Tramway Rd. and, after getting of the tram, went along the Tramway Trail to a junction with the La Luz Trail, located about 1 mile from the latter’s trailhead, and descended back to the parking area.  This last section is about 4 miles in all and adds another 1200 feet or so of elevation gain (the tram descends to a point considerably lower than that of the La Luz trailhead), so it made for a full day.

I have said the convention began on Thursday, but there actually was a preliminary welcoming event where the attendees gathered at the hotel’s courtyard attached to its restaurant.  Here an overview was given of the upcoming events and, more importantly, attendees had an opportunity to meet with one another, in many cases “catching up” with each other’s activities since the previous convention, which took place four years ago.  Normally the conventions are held at 2-year intervals, but the one originally scheduled for 2020 was canceled on account of the pandemic. 

And, indeed, the convention itself provided a reminder that the pandemic is not yet behind us.  One of the attendees developed symptoms shortly after deplaning and traveling to the hotel.  He administered a self-test and the results came out positive, which resulted in his being confined to his room during the entirety of the convention, not emerging until Sunday, when his illness had subsided.

There was little to do on Thursday morning, which I spent swimming in the hotel’s pool.  We had a picnic, along with various games, in the courtyard.  Then attendees partook of one of three activities (they had to make their choice of the three beforehand, during convention registration).  The choices were going up to the Sandia Mountains on the tramway, taking the crest caravan with a visit to Tinkertown Museum, or visiting Santa Fe.  I was not particularly interested in Tinkertown, which appeared to me to present artwork of a very Disneyfied version of the Old West.  I like Santa Fe very much, but the ride from Albuquerque is about 90 minutes each way, which would have left less than 3 hours for going through the city.  The ridgeline of the Sandia Mountains provides a network of trails in addition to the ones I have traversed the day before (the trail along the spine itself is 26 miles), so I was looking forward to sampling some of these.

But it was a washout.  The slight cloud covering I had encountered the day before at the ridgeline had become denser and stormier, punctuated by thunder and lightning, and the tram operators, of course, would not run the tram under such conditions.  We waited for about an hour, at which point the tour guides decided that it would be best to cut our losses and return to the city.  We did stop on the way at a produce market (the Fruit Basket, as it is called) of some fame in the city and saw a demonstration of how chili peppers were roasted.  So it was not a complete loss, but on the whole it was a disappointing outcome.

After dinner I attended an Author’s Panel, in which authors of various film books discussed the subject matter of their works, and then I saw showings of Laurel and Hardy movies:  Way Out West and The Battle of the Century.  Way Out West is considered one of the best films Laurel and Hardy did, and many argue that it is their supreme achievement.  I would not go so far as to advance that claim for it, but it is perfect as far as it goes:  a plotline that is simple, but which never comes across as padded, several musical numbers that provide a showcase for Hardy’s beautiful singing voice and the dancing skills of both of them, an admirable supporting cast (James Finlayson, as the villainous bartender, particularly excels in this film).  The Battle of the Century is of course a much slighter work; and, until recently, could be seen only in a mutilated form.  There is still about a minute and a half of footage missing, but most of the material previously considered lost has happily been located and restored.

On Friday morning we heard presentations from Randy Skretvedt, the author of numerous books on vintage films and, in particular, of “Laurel and Hardy: The Magic Behind the Movies,” the standard reference work on the subject; and from Mike Jones, a member of one of the British “tents” (as the local chapters of the society are called), who discussed how various locations in the northeast of England provide traces of Stan Laurel’s past.  Both were interesting but the latter especially, at least to me; part of Jones’s presentation focused on Ulverston, Laurel’s birthplace, which brought back fond memories of a visit there I had made during a previous convention.

Following that we enjoyed a contest in which some of the more knowledgeable attendees played “Video Jeopardy,” in which they would be given photos of stills from films – but only portions of them – and then identify the film from which they were taken.  I also participated in a “Soup to Nuts” relay in which team members, one at a time, viewed a table setting and then attempted to reconstruct it when moving out of its sight.  The setting was a complicated one, full of tongue-in-cheek references to various films (a tiny playing card, for example, stood for the dinner cards used at place settings for formal dinners at that time) and it took several attempts of the team members to get it right.  It wasn’t until I noticed that the cap for the pepper shaker was unscrewed halfway and I replicated that feature on our reproduction that the judges accepted it as complete.

We had dinner on our own and then went to the Kimo Theater in downtown Albuquerque, a wonderful example of the adobe-style Pueblo Revival Architecture, replete with decorations along the walls with artwork in the indigenous style.  The presentation began with a skit by Laurel and Hardy impersonators Jeffrey Weissman and E. E. Bell.  Frankly, I found it rather thin, but my opinion of these two performers went up on the following day, when they discussed their careers in playing their respective roles.  Afterwards we viewed several films on the screen, where they showed to better advantage than on home projectors.  The films were Towed in the Hole, Sons of the Desert, One Good Turn, Helpmates, and Busy Bodies.  All of these are delightful.

Sons of the Desert, of course, is described as the iconic Laurel and Hardy film; the fraternal organization for which these conventions are provided takes its name from the film’s title.  It is actually in some ways atypical of Laurel and Hardy feature films, being somewhat faster in pace than most of them and providing a dimension to the female characters not often seen in the other L&H films, in which the wife figures are simply shrews or vixens.  It is undoubtedly one of their funniest; and not only are the comic duo at the top of their form, but the other major members of the supporting cast – Charley Chase, Mae Busch, and Dorothy Christy – give standout performers. 

On Saturday a trivia contest was held, with four teams of three members each participating, after which Jeffrey Weissman and E. E. Bell, the impersonators we had seen last night, spoke about their experiences in the course of participating in reconstructions of Laurel and Hardy routines.  Both of their accounts were fascinating, and they gave an insight into the entertainment industry obscured by the wild antics and the heavily publicized acts of charity of the well-known Hollywood stars.  I am bound to say that this second tier of industrious actors and actresses who do not receive the exaggerated acclaim of our top movie stars appears to be by far the more wholesome and the more prepossessing of the two.

After lunch some of us watched two films that were of historical interest:  the Spanish version of Pardon Us, followed by We Faw Down.  For a time Roach Studios created foreign-language versions of their films for export, with Laurel and Hardy and some of the supporting actors supplying the dialogue in French, Spanish, German, or Italian.  The Spanish version of Pardon Us is the only foreign-language version of that film that has survived. 

The interest it affords is historical rather than intrinsic.  Pardon Us was the first Laurel and Hardy full-length feature, but it was not the happiest of debuts.  It is in fact a thoroughly unpleasant film, with the prison scenes accomplishing the difficult feat of making the penal system of the day appear even more abusive than it was in reality.  Moreover, it is bogged down by an interlude in which Laurel and Hardy, after escaping prison, daub their faces with mud and take refuge in a cotton plantation to hide among the African-American farmhands.  This sequence is not, to be sure, overtly offensive in the manner of a similar scene in the Marx Brothers’ “Day at the Races”:  Laurel and Hardy simply mingle among the other farm workers and no racial jokes are made.  But it is repellent nonetheless.  The workers happily sing minstrel songs as they work (for ten minutes on end, a fairly significant fraction of a 70-minute film), and the implication is that they are thoroughly contented and could ask for no better living conditions.  What possible need could these cheerful menials have for opportunities of education or for voting rights?

We Faw Down, by way of contrast, is a pleasant bit of fluff.  It is of interest, however, because it provides the basic plot of the much more elaborate Sons of the Desert:  Laurel and Hardy as husbands having an errant night out, only to have their cover story disproved by a disaster overtaking the place that they were claiming to be during their absence from home.  

In the evening we dined together at a banquet, after which several members performed a version of the Match Game, in which the “stars” for whom the contestants attempted to match answers were characters from various L&H films and the judges were Laurel and Hardy themselves.  This was very well-done.  Much of it, of course, had been rehearsed in advance, but the two members who had been selected as contestants had not been coached beforehand and thus their answers to the host’s questions were improvised.  It was a wonderful way to conclude the evening.

The following morning featured a farewell brunch, during which tributes were given to the performers in the films. 

Reactions of Trump’s followers to the FBI search of Mar-a-Lago – The Wanderbirds on the Potomac Heritage Trail – Evening statistics

In 1938 J. R. R. Tolkien was in negotiations with Berlin publisher Rütten & Loening about creating a German-language edition of The Hobbit.  At one point, however, they asked for proof of Tolkien’s “Aryan descent,” due to Goebbels’ regulations on Jews’ participation in German cultural activities. Tolkien indignantly refused to comply and the deal fell through as a result.  Three years later he wrote a letter to his son Michael, in which he said “I have in this war a burning private grudge against that ruddy little ignoramus Adolf Hitler. Ruining, perverting, misapplying, and making for ever accursed, that noble northern spirit, a supreme contribution to Europe, which I have ever loved, and tried to present in its true light.”  Long before opposition to Hitler became fashionable, Tolkien foresaw, and he unfortunately was quite correct in his prediction, that German culture would be forever tainted by association with Hitler.  I mention this episode because I am haunted by fears that we are entering a similar situation at the current time, and that the American heritage will be forever tainted by association with Donald Trump.

Today Senator Rand Paul has called for the repeal of the Espionage Act after the FBI search on Trump’s home in Mar-a-Lago discovered numerous caches of classified documents there.  What is disturbing is not the behavior of Trump himself.  Mendacious, vicious, unprincipled egomaniacs are to be found in every nation and every generation.  What is disturbing is the effect on his followers.  I know that I have repeated myself on this point many times, but I must iterate this attitude yet again:  what spell has this man woven over his adherents that can induce them to sacrifice the best interests of themselves and their country to suit Trump’s convenience?  Paul’s reaction is typical:  Donald Trump has broken the country’s laws, and some of its most fundamental ones – therefore, the laws must be repealed. Nothing too heinous or, for that matter, too ridiculous can shake their obsessive devotion to this juggernaut.  Paul is far from unique:  in Arizona an armed protest was held today against the FBI, with protestors waving signs whose slogans called for the assassination of federal government employees.  If Trump were to announce that the gods must be appeased by a ceremony that sacrifices virgins by hurling them into a pool of molten lava, they would immediately scan the ranks of American young women to cull out the likeliest victims.

Trump’s dominant role is all the more surprising for the complete absence of those qualities that ordinarily would appeal to voters.  Coarse and unprepossessing in feature, graceless and ungainly in build, infirm in temper, boorish in manner, harsh in voice, clumsy and incoherent in speech – such are his surface characteristics; for the rest, he has had a long history of cheating workmen out of their pay, betraying his business associates, abusing any woman who was unfortunate and incautious enough to get involved with him, turning on his closest friends and associates without warning.  What can others see in such a man?  It seems to me that I were to be introduced to any man like him, I would afterwards strive to avoid him as I would an infectious disease; and yet by some mysterious means he is able to inspire a fervid devotion among his followers that the most charming and able of political leaders must envy.  Doubtless many Germans and Italians in the 1930s experienced stupefaction similar to mine as the Fascists came into power, bewilderedly wondering what appeal Hitler and Mussolini could possibly provide for so many of their compatriots; but that does not make this burden any easier to bear.

Thankfully I’m still able to find refuge in other activities.  I went today with the Wanderbirds on the Potomac Heritage Trail from Algonkian to Great Falls.  The weather was perfect, warm but not overly hot or humid, and the river scenery contained an abundance of avian wildlife, including a pair of cormorants surveying the river for prey with Trumpian intensity.  The bus ride recaptured the past experience of riding with the Wanderbirds in a manner that the previous bus hikes did not:  it was somewhat fuller (the numbers are still low, but at any rate the bus was half-full), with a greater number of regulars, and with animated discussions ongoing during the ride among various groups of passengers.  I must not despair of the club eventually being restored to its former condition.  During a meeting with the Board to discuss measures for recruiting hikers, AD reminded the group that the club had undergone a much more severe crisis in the 1990s, when it was unclear from one week to the next whether it would have sufficient funds for a bus hike and there was a real possibility of the club’s dissolution.  Matters may be improving as the weather moderates and as fewer members of the club are on travel for the summer months.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 595,056,244; # of deaths worldwide: 6,454,322; # of cases U.S.: 94,688,168; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,062,343.

Long COVID – How will the pandemic end? – Southern Shenandoah National Park – Evening statistics

COVID has been with us for two years, and now the effects of long COVID are becoming more apparent.  About 6% of those affected by COVID will never recover their sense of smell and taste.  About 13.3% of COVID patients will take a month or longer for their symptoms to resolve.  It is difficult to predict recovery times because COVID affects so many different organs:  nerves, lungs, and heart in particular.  The CDC says that 2.5% of COVID patients are predicted to have lingering side-effects, including but not limited to difficulty breathing, muscle pain, and trouble concentrating, for three months or more.  Other, more troubling symptoms have emerged in some cases as well:  amnesia, apraxia (inability to perform familiar movements), bowel incontinence, erectile dysfunction, hallucinations, and limb-swelling. 

“I would never have expected, you know, in the middle of summer in a heatwave, we would have a surge in cases two and a half years into this pandemic,” said Dr. Scott Roberts, associate professor and associate medical director for infection prevention at Yale School of Medicine.  It’s becoming clear that the pandemic will not “end” in the sense of the virus no longer affecting a large number of people.  The virus will continue to mutate and new variants will continue to emerge:  probably, if the recent trend continues to hold, in cycles of two months or so.  Rather than the pandemic ending upon a specific calendar date, the most likely scenario is the gradual shift to “more of this endemic response,” according to Neysa Ernst, nurse manager for the Johns Hopkins Biocontainment Unit.  Already COVID is no longer overwhelming hospitals or interfering to any great extent with travel plans.  Dr. Taison Bell, assistant professor of medicine in the divisions of infectious diseases and international health and pulmonary and critical care medicine at the University of Virginia, said that over time COVID “will become much more of a nuisance rather than something that’s a potential death sentence in a small percentage of people.”  It is difficult to predict when such a state of affairs will occur; Bell’s estimate is that it will take two-to-four years “to get to the long-term steady state.”  According to Roberts, we probably will not reach true endemicity until 2024. 

In the meantime one does what one can to stave illness off by staying as active as possible – at any rate, I do.  Today I was in the southern region of Shenandoah National Park, hiking in the Turk Mountain area, a lovely location that I don’t often have the opportunity to see through my hiking clubs.  The drive is a rather longer than most people are willing to undertake, and indeed it was tiring to drive back for more than two hours after having hiked a dozen miles.  I may have to arrange to stay overnight in Waynesboro or Staunton if I wish to explore the area further.  The views in the southern part of SNP are somewhat different than those further north:  the summits are a bit lower but they contain several rock outcroppings whose bare surfaces contrast vividly with the green forest foliage.  The southern area of the park also tends to be less crowded than the northern and central sections, since it is not as easy to reach from the greater DC metro area.  Even though the elevation was lower than that of, for example, the Hawksbill area, it was high enough for the temperatures to remain in the 70s for the entire day – very refreshing after the torrid temperatures earlier this week, especially in the lowlands.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 594,549,458; # of deaths worldwide: 6,453,284; # of cases U.S.: 94,678,926; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,062,333.

A funeral – The relaxed attitude towards mask-wearing – The COVID “plateau” – The enforced delivery of a dead fetus – The sequel of the FBI search of Mar-a-Lago – Evening statistics

Today I attended the funeral of EP, She had been a member of the Wanderbirds and, although I did not know her very well, I felt that some members of the club should have been present.  I’m sorry now that I did not get to know her better, for she was by all accounts a most extraordinary person:  fluent in six languages, a respected figure on Capitol Hill (she worked for the Library of Congress as a specialist in foreign law), and an accomplished musician, excelling both at singing and piano-playing..  Whenever her relatives and friends spoke of her, their features brightened with animation and a delighted laugh came to their voices.  She had strength of will as well:  she had become rather frail during her last years, but she came to the club hikes on a continual basis, even after the pandemic intervened with the bus hikes and forced the club to resort to carpooling instead. 

The ceremony was of interest for another reason.  I and the other two members of the Wanderbirds who attended were the only ones wearing face masks.  The church where the service was held was very spacious and the attendees were not crowded together at close quarters; but it still was a striking illustration of how relaxed people have become in such matters.  The CDC has become very tentative in its recommendations.  Currently about 35% of counties in the U.S. are designated at the “high” level for risk of COVID, 40% are “medium,” and 25% are “low.”  At this point the CDC is not explicitly recommending masks for anyone living in a low-level county and only for the immuno-compromised in a medium-level county.  Fairfax County is currently rated as low, but many of its neighbors are not:  Arlington is rated as medium and both Montgomery and Prince Georges are rated as high.  Given the amount of interaction between residents of these counties, it is only a matter of time that Fairfax’s rating will change, and not for the better.

We have been on a COVID “plateau” for several weeks, with something over 40,000 hospitalizations and about 400 deaths per day over the last month or so.  These numbers are certainly an improvement over the ones of the past winter, when the hospitalizations were four times that amount and the daily death toll could easily reach 2,500; but they are still disappointingly high.  The new variants and sub-variants are certainly less deadly than their predecessors, but they account for a death toll more than twice as high as the flu has attained in its worst seasons. 

“What will Ofwarren give birth to?  A baby, as we all hope?  Or something else, an Unbaby, with a pinhead or a snout like a dog’s, or two bodies, or a hole in its heart or no arms, or webbed hands and feet?  There’s no telling.  They could tell once, with machines, but that is now outlawed.  What would be the point of knowing, anyway?  You can’t have them taken out; whatever it is must be carried to term.”

Margaret Atwood’s The Handmaid’s Tale, which appeared to be a dystopian fantasy when it was first published in 1985, has become sober fact.  Dr. Valerie Williams, an OB-GYN in New Orleans, was prevented from performing a dilation and evacuation (an abortion procedure) to remove a non-viable fetus from a patient whose water broke while she was 16 weeks pregnant.  The pregnant woman was already traumatized from her experience and felt that an induction, which would require labor and delivery of the fetus, would be too much for her.  But the hospital lawyer said that it was too risky from a legal point of view to perform the operation, because nearly all abortions now are banned in Louisiana.  So she was forced to go through an hours-long labor to deliver a non-viable fetus, which of course was dead long before it emerged from the womb, despite the woman’s own declared wishes and despite the medical advice given to her.  She hemorrhaged about a liter of blood in the process.  I am somewhat puzzled, in reading about cases such as these (and they are legion), to explain how the people who have crafted the laws that create such situations can describe themselves as “pro-life.”

As a result of their search at Mar-a-Lago, the FBI has removed eleven sets of classified documents.  Somewhat oddly, Trump did not oppose Merrick Garland’s release of the search warrant.  Up to this point he has been reacting along predictable lines, vilifying the Department of Justice and claiming that the FBI agents planted evidence; but for the moment, at least, he seems to realize that mere denials are not going to resolve his difficulties.  This episode, however, does not appear to have dented his stranglehold on the Republican Party in the slightest.  Rep. Troy Nehls of Texas – who formerly was a sheriff – has openly attacked the Department of Justice and the FBI, while yesterday the Ohio police were engaged in an hours-long standoff, and eventually a fatal one, with an armed man clad in body armor who tried to breach the FBI’s Cincinnati office.  The party is now encouraging its most vicious elements to grow unchecked, while its ablest exponents are immediately expelled from their ranks at the first sign of a humane passion. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide 593,861,995; # of deaths worldwide: 6,451,212; # of cases U.S.: 94,643,632; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,062,151.

Various political matters (not pleasant to linger upon, but unavoidable) – Evening statistics

Normally I go hiking with the Vigorous Hikers on Tuesdays but today I had to forego this pastime on account of an appointment with my financial advisor.  Indeed I was not sorry for an excuse to remain indoors most of the day, for it was very hot and oppressive. Thus this entry focuses more on political than personal concerns.

Matters are not going well for Trump and his adherents.  Today Rudy Giuliani was supposed to appear in Atlanta in response to a subpoena in the Fulton County investigation of the pressurizing of Georgia’s Secretary of State to tamper with the state’s ballot in the 2020 election.  Yesterday Giuliani filed an emergency application to postpone his appearance. His lawyers cited a doctor who said Giuliani is unfit for air travel following a heart stent operation earlier this summer.  But today Fulton County Judge Robert McBurney, who is overseeing the special grand jury, ordered Giuliani to appear for grand jury testimony on Aug. 17^th, saying that if Giuliani is unable to take an airplane flight he can travel by car or bus.  William Thomas, Giuliani’s attorney, said that the district attorney has not responded to questions as to whether Giuliani is also a target.  To judge from his reluctance to appear in court, Giuliani certainly believes that he will not fare well in this investigation and will doubtless continue to try to wriggle out of appearing in the courtroom for as long as he can.

And Trump himself is now being subjected to some legal embarrassment.  Specifically, the FBI is currently searching his Mar-a-Lago residence to determine whether or not he stored any classified documents there after leaving the Oval Office. 

As a matter of course, Republicans such as Kevin McCarthy, Rick Scott, and Marco Rubio are claiming that Trump is the victim of political conspiracy, conveniently ignoring the fact that Christopher Wray, the FBI Director, is a Trump appointee who has been in his position for five years, and also ignoring the fact that when Hilary Clinton, Trump’s opponent in the 2016 election, was accused of similar charges, Trump was among the most vehement in his condemnation of her, even going to the extent of firing James Comey, the FBI Director at the time, for pursuing the matter with insufficient zeal.  Andrew McCabe, a former Deputy Director of FBI, commented that the agency would not have undertaken such a drastic step if Trump had merely forgotten to remove a few documents from his personal belongings; they must have received some indication of willful violation on his part if they are prepared to proceed to such lengths.

Unsurprising also, but depressing, is that one of these would-be vindicators of the party’s brazen idol is  . . . Mike Pence.  The man whose execution was expressly urged by Trump’s adherents was among the first to demand an accounting from Merrick Garland and to write that “the appearance of continued partisanship by the Justice Department must be addressed.”  He forgets that an independent federal judge had to sign off on the warrant after establishing that FBI agents had shown probable cause before they could descend on Trump’s home.  Or rather, he has forgotten that a man ought to be able to stand upright on two legs and instead prefers to grovel on all four limbs, so desperate is he to curry favor with the extremists of the GOP party.

There are two encouraging factors in this new episode:  first, that Mitch McConnell has taken some care to distance himself from Trump, on the grounds that his attention is occupied with flood victims in his state of Kentucky, and, better still, Trump is currently in New York and thus unable physically to interfere with the agents’ search. 

Biden is providing cause for concern as well.  Today he made a speech from the South Lawn, just before signing the CHIPS and Science Act.  This act is a major legislative victory for the administration, but its triumph was diminished by the fact that the President was continuously coughing throughout his address, despite repeated doses of water and cough drops.  He also appeared, after shaking hands with Chuck Schumer, to have forgotten that he had done so a bare five minutes afterwards, extending his hand for a second time and apparently nonplussed when Schumer did not respond.  Biden has twice tested negative after having had a bout of COVID. White House physician Dr. Kevin O’Connor declared this past Sunday that Biden has fully recovered and could “safely return to public engagement and presidential travel,” His performance today, however, did not inspire confidence.  He has previously suffered from asthma, and his symptoms could simply be the result of this underlying condition, but the possibility of long COVID cannot be ruled out. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  590,801,306; # of deaths worldwide: 6,440,702; # of cases U.S.: 94,114,447; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,059,582.

Pauses in the journal — COVID here and abroad — Long COVID — The approach to the endemic phase — Surface serenity while hiking — Evening statistics

Another hiatus in this journal, for similar reasons.  My time has been filled up. I led hikes on July 31^st and yesterday as well, while I scouted for a third hike on the 6^th.  During the middle of last week I visited friends in New Jersey, where access to a workstation was limited.  Then, too, the amount of COVID-related events has greatly diminished over the past several months.  One might easily suppose that the pandemic is over at last.

That, however, is a delusion.  COVID is still with us.  For example, we received two cancellations for the hike yesterday, one upon learning that he tested positive the day for the hike, and one who had to cancel because his son had contracted the disease and, to use his own words, “it was just a matter of time” before he would become infected himself.  At the hike yesterday, LH remarked that she knew hardly anyone who had not fallen ill with COVID at one time or another.  As far as I know, I have not had the disease myself, but I can’t be certain.  If I have contracted the disease without symptoms at one point in the past, there is no way of detecting that now.  I have been vaccinated and received boosters as well, so the antibodies would be present if I were to take a test. 

In other parts of the world, COVID is still wreaking havoc.  China has just locked down Hainan Island, a popular resort location that is sometimes known as “China’s Hawaii.”  Some 80,000 tourists are stranded in the resort town of Sanya, where they are required to stay for seven days and clear five COVID tests before leaving.. 

However, we can always turn to the example of North Korea for consolation.  Recently its government has announced that all of its COVID patients have recovered, marking the end of its first wave of the pandemic. State media has said the “anti-epidemic situation has entered a definite phase of stability.”  It also is offering a bridge in Brooklyn for sale – no, wait, I made that last part up.

The effects of long COVID are now starting to become apparent.  Many are unable to resume their old jobs even after recovering from the disease.  Some estimates place the number of people too greatly weakened by long COVID to recover their former lifestyle in the millions.  A typical example is Georgia Linders, who fell ill with COVID two years ago and who still labors under debilitating symptoms to this day:  heartbeat suddenly accelerating for no apparent reason, bouts of fever on an almost daily basis, continual fatigue, brain fog.  She had to be terminated from her position (which coordinated health services for the military) because her productivity rate dropped to about a quarter of what her co-workers were doing, even though she had previously excelled at her profession.  Recent data from the CDC suggests that one person in every five infected with COVID are suffering from long COVID.  Based on data from the Census Bureau, the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, and the Lancet, Katie Bach, a senior fellow with the Brookings Institution, estimates that 4 million former full-time employees are out of work because of long COVID, about 2.4% of the American workforce.

James McDeavitt, the vice president and dean of clinical affairs at Baylor College of Medicine, claims that we are now entering the endemic phase and that in fact this phase may already have begun.  “It’s going to be with us for the long-term like flu is with us for the long-term,” he said.  Although COVID test rates have increased, hospitalizations and death rates have not.  About 99% of COVID patients in ICUs are unvaccinated.  Therapeutic treatments such as Paxlovid are becoming more effective.  COVID is thus settling down into a disease whose status resembles that of influenza, although with somewhat mlore extensive consequences.  Flu kills between 20,000 and 80,000 Americans a year. McDeavitt expects COVID to settle in around 100,000 deaths per year and to remain a top-ten cause of death in the country.

It seems strange that all of this turmoil has no apparent effect on one’s daily tasks and leisure activities.  Everything I see during the course of my recent wanderings looks as tranquil as ever.  Indeed, the mountain forests are unusually green for this time of year as a result of the abundance of rain this summer (generally the driest season in the area).  From the Jewell Hollow Overlook of Shenandoah National Park, where I and my two co-leaders scouted our hike planned for the 28^th, there was none of the usual browning and withering of tree leaves in the summer heat:  the Shenandoah Valley spread out below us, with the Massanuttens on the valley’s western edge and the Alleghanies beyond, dotted with the houses and buildings of the town of Luray, looking positively Alpine.  Yesterday’s hike, which covered the Appalachian Trail from Weverton to Turner’s Gap (about 14 miles), was densely shaded throughout.  I may say that the hike yesterday was the easiest of them all to lead; only one other person elected to take this longer option (the others started from Gathland, which is 7½ miles from Turner’s Gap), which meant that we could hike together and that there was no need for me to pause to lay down markers at junctions.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  589,856,088; # of deaths worldwide: 6,437,895; # of cases U.S.: 93,962,966; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,058,891.