Month: October 2022

Rumblings of Mauna Loa – Attack on Russian troops at Crimea – The ongoing protests in Iran – Summiting El Capitan – Evening statistics

A great explosion is imminent.  No, Donald Trump has not threatened to release all of the classified data that he purloined to Putin – not yet, anyway – but there are ominous rumblings on the Big Island of Hawaii.   Mauna Loa, which makes up over 50% of the island’s landmass, has delivered several low-intensity earthquakes recently, signs that an eruption may be forthcoming.  The volcano last erupted in 1984.  Lave travels relatively quickly, and in one eruption (in 1950) it took less than three hours to flow from its source to the sea, a distance of 15 miles.  Since the 1984 eruption, the population of the Big Island has more than doubled in size, so substantial damage to homes is a definite possibility.  Several homes are sufficiently close to the vents in the volcano to be reached by the lava flow.

The Ukrainians have carried out a “massive” drone attack on the Black Sea Fleet in the Crimean port city of Sevastopol as part of their large-scale effort to retake some of the territory occupied by Russian troops since the invasion on February 24^th.  The Crimean peninsula was actually annexed by Russia in 2014 and is regarded by Putin as being of supreme strategic importance.  He evidently is unaware of that fine old adage, “Crimea doesn’t pay.”

The head of Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards has told Iranians to end the weeks-long demonstrations that have gripped the country, warning that Saturday would be their “last day” of protest.  Hossein Salami, the Guard’s Commander-in-Chief, called on Iranian young people specifically to desist from protesting, saying “Today is the last day of the riots. Do not come to the streets again. What do you want from this nation?”

Well, at a guess, I’d say that what Iranians want is a government that does not meddle in matters that do not concern them, such as the sort of headgear people wear or whether or not they bare their arms or legs in the midst of the heat of summer.  Then again perhaps they might feel a distinct preference for leaders who do not act as sanctimonious killjoys, forbidding any form of singing or dancing in public.  Oh, and if one may touch upon so delicate a point, perhaps they also yearn for a government that is a trifle less enthusiastic about inflicting the death penalty; the Iranian government has the reputation of executing the greatest number of people per capita of any nation in the world.  This is merely a guess on my part, you understand, and of course I may be mistaken.  But somehow I do not think that I am.

El Capitan is a vertical rock formation in Yosemite National Park, a granite monolith about 3,000 feet from base to summit along its tallest face.  It is a popular objective for rock climbers.  So it is not surprising that Sam Baker completed the climb over the course of several days, resting in hanging camps at appropriate intervals, except for one trifling circumstance:  he is eight years old.  The climb to El Capitan has claimed over 30 deaths since 1905, or about a quarter of all rock climbing deaths in the history of Yosemite.  But Joe Baker, his father, airily brushed aside any concerns onlookers expressed for his son’s safety, because, after all, he was wearing a harness.  Well, I daresay an eight-year old child warning a harness has a better chance of surviving such a climb than a fully-fledged adult without one. I suppose young Master Baker’s next feat will be clambering along Hanshelleren Cave in Flatanger, Norway, widely considered the most challenging rock climb in the world; but it is to be hoped that he will attempt this feat before his thirteenth birthday, for of course he will at that point be past his prime.

Today’s statistics as of 8:30 PM – # of cases worldwide: 635,253,241; # of deaths worldwide: 6,593,193; # of cases U.S.: 99,341,447; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,095,199  .

Our beautiful October – Increases in COVID – Another rioter sentenced – A would-be Senatorial nonagenarian – Lindsay Graham urges truthfulness for everyone except himself – Draft-dodging in Russia – Evening statistics

We have been having a splendid autumn.  Day after day the weather has been wonderful, air without any trace of the haze one sees in the summer months, so that everything is bathed in sunlight.  Today I was outside mainly for the purpose of running errands, but the foliage was so magnificent that I was stopping continually to gaze on the splendid array of scarlet, crimson, burgundy, orange, coral, gold.  It was rather breezy, but not at all cold, such a contrast to the heavy, stagnant air of this past July and August. 

Alas, there is a downside to this shift in weather.  COVID hospitalizations are on the rise.  There were about 1,100 people hospitalized with COVID-19 in New York City on Oct. 24, up from 750 in mid-September.  Influenza and RSV cases have increased as well.  Over the past two years, when people were wearing facemasks as a matter of course, the case rate for influenza had been significantly lower than usual during the winter season, but as people are becoming less cautious the case rates threaten to be at the usual level this year. 

Albuquerque Head has been sentenced to 7½ years in prison, one of the longest terms handed down to the January 6 rioters, but not one iota less long than it should be.  He is the man who grabbed Officer Michael Fanone and threw him to the mob that beat him to such a degree as to cause Fanone to undergo a heart attack and severe brain injury. 

Iowans are facing a momentous decision in the upcoming election:  namely, whether or not to send Republican Chuck Grassley back for an eighth term in the U.S. Senate.  He has served in the Senate since 1980 – that is to say, for 42 years – and is now 89 years old.  If he were to win, he would be 95 by the end of his next term.  No one seems to consider his age to be an issue.  That his own party would brush it aside as a trifle of no importance is hardly surprising; but, amazingly, the Democratic party is equally reticent on this point.  Hardly anyone in the opposition has touched upon it at all.  The phrase “term limits” is clearly anathema to both parties.

Another senatorial election is also of interest.  Hershel Walker, the Republican candidate in the upcoming Georgia election, is a firm anti-abortionist.  Two women have come forward during the campaign to say that in the past Walker impregnated them some years ago and then pressured them afterwards to abort the child.  He has denied both allegations.  The salient point of this episode is not the allegations themselves – whether or not they have any validity I have no way of knowing, nor do any of the voters in Georgia – but the fact that Lindsay Graham has sprung to his defense by saying, “If you’re a conservative, they don’t give a damn about the truth. They’re trying to destroy his life 13 days before the election.”  Considering that Graham has just induced a Supreme Court Justice to relieve him from the responsibility of complying with a subpoena to testify in grand jury investigation, I would say that concern for truth is not one of his strong points.

Young and not-so-young Russian men are adopting an unusual strategy of avoiding the draft;  they are pretending to be stricken with HIV or, failing that, with hepatitis.  Putin announced on September 21^st that he would draft 300,000 new soldiers, the Internet in Russia has abounded in scams offering potential draftees certificates for either of these ailments for prices in the $600-$900 range.  The falsified HIV and hepatitis diagnoses can be paid via Bitcoin and come alongside forged government documents and currency exchanges.  The buyers are running a considerable risk; if they are discovered to have falsified documents in order to avoid military service, they can be sentenced to up to ten years in prison.

Today’s statistics as of 8:30 PM – # of cases worldwide: 634,509,461; # of deaths worldwide: 6,589,153; # of cases U.S.: 99,278,236; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,094,562        .

The Browntown/Jenkins Gap hike – The worm turns in Iran – Correlation between COVID and coronary disease – Mark Meadows joins the list of those who ignore subpoenas – Evening statistics

Another lovely day and another lovely hike to make the most of it.  I went with the Vigorous Hikers to the little village of Browntown, from where we went up the Browntown Trail to Gravel Springs, then went along the Bluff Trail to the Mt. Marshall Trail, and descended back via the Jenkins Gap Trail:  16 miles in all, and about 2600 feet of elevation gain, most of it fairly gradual.  The day was clear, with the beautiful autumnal light characteristic of this time of year, which for some reason seems fuller and mellower than the sunlight of other seasons.  Towards the Jenkins Gap parking area, the high point of our hike, bands of mist hovered a few feet above and below Skyline Drive, making the color of the sky bordering the clouds all the more vivid in contrast. 

My return home was somewhat less eventful than that of Elnaz Rekabi, the Iranian sports climber who had neglected to don her hijab during the competition in South Korea.  She is now reportedly under house arrest, after having issued a public apology for her grave omission – whether or not under duress is unclear. 

Iranian women generally are growing restive, it seems.  Students are protesting at universities across the nation.  Tensions have been mounting on the eve of planned ceremonies marking 40 days since the death of Mahsa Amini, the young woman who appeared in public with a hijab that did not conform with the imams’ exalted standards of decorum and who was beaten to death for this grave transgression.  (Forty days mark the traditional period of mourning in Iran, and a ceremony is customarily hold upon the 40^th day after a death.)  Security services warned Amini’s family against holding a mourning ceremony and instructed them not to ask people to visit her grave today.  Otherwise, these authorities jovially explained, “they should worry for their son’s life.”  The establishment has responded to the demonstrations at schools and universities with equal mildness, wiping out the lives of at least 141 protestors.  Such is the legacy of Jimmy Carter’s misguided policies that undermined the government of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi and paved the way for the theocrat Ruhollah Khomeini to impose a stranglehold on the country that has lasted nearly half a century.

Deaths from heart attacks have risen over the past two years, particularly among young adults in the 25-44 age range.  In the first year of the pandemic, they went up by 14%. B y the second year of the pandemic, the “observed” compared to “predicted” rates of heart attack death had increased by 29.9% for adults ages 25-44, by 19.6% for adults ages 45-64, and by 13.7% for adults age 65 and older.  It is not clear to what extent that these increases are a direct result of COVID itself and to what extent they are the result of the pandemic’s side effects:  increased levels of stress, decreased levels of exercise, and more failures to undergo medical checkups that could have detected problems in their earlier, and more curable, stages.  There seems little doubt, however, the virus has been triggering or accelerating the incidence of coronary heart disease to an alarming degree.

Mark Meadows has joined the ranks of Trump co-conspirators who think themselves above the law.  He is urging a judge in Pickens County, S.C., where he now resides, to reject an effort by Fulton County, Georgia, to subpoena him for testimony in November.  Meadows was on the line for the infamous phone call from Trump to Brad Raffensperger demanding that the latter “find” enough votes to overturn the Georgia ballot in the presidential election.  Meadows also traveled to Georgia in December 2020 to monitor an audit of the state’s election results in a further effort to cheat the Georgian voters of their choice.  Meadows contends that the probe by Fani Willis – being conducted via a “special grand jury – doesn’t qualify as a criminal investigation, which prevents her from compelling him to appear.  If attempting to undermine a national election isn’t criminal, I don’t know what is.  My mind isn’t flexible enough to digest these legal subtleties, I suppose.

Today’s statistics as of 8:30 PM – # of cases worldwide: 633,563,725; # of deaths worldwide: 6,585,200; # of cases U.S.: 99,139,887; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,093,303.

On Bearfence Mountain – Steve Bannon evades the consequences of his subpoena – Lindsay Grahan evades the consequences of his subpoena – Donald Trump evades the consequences of his subpoena – Does anyone see a pattern here? – The small fry are less favored by fortune – The Trump Organization on trial – The effects of at-home schooling during the past two years of the pandemic – The new British Prime Minister – Evening statistics

Another hiatus in the journal and I have, if not an excuse, at any rate an explanation for it.  I had to lead a hike for the Wanderbirds yesterday.  I scouted it with SW, my co-leader, on Friday and then I led it on Sunday.  The hike included the rock scramble on Bearfence Mountain, a delightful exercise that leads to the top of the rocks at the mountain’s summit.  There one has a 360-degree view of the Shenandoah Valley, wreathed at this season in autumnal splendor. 

During the hike itself I had several “young Turks” at my heels, impelling me to go forward swiftly so that they would not become impatient or complain that I was holding them back.  That is as it should be.  It has been gratifying to know that, at 68 years of age, I am one of the fastest hikers in both the Wanderbirds and the Capital Hiking Clubs, but it is also slightly ridiculous; it is high time for the youngsters to take their natural place in the vanguard.  After the hike we gathered close to the bus, as is our custom, to drink and snack while the hikers gradually assembled.  I was seated with a number of the hikers who arrived back more or less at the same time I did, and by sheer accident it happened that, while most of them were seated on the ground in a circle, I was occupying the space in the center.  We were conversing about various trails and inquiring about the rock scrambles that were available on them.  SW joked that the others were listening attentively to their “Uncle Josh”; and although I wasn’t making any conscious effort to monopolize the conversation, it is difficult at my time of life not to sound avuncular on occasion.  At all events, we had a splendid day; the skies remained clear in the early part of the hike, where the rock scramble took place, and everyone returned to the bus well within the appointed time.

Incidentally, a new study in the British Journal of Sports Medicine suggests that regular physical activity of this nature significantly reinforces the preventative effects of COVID vaccines.  The vaccines have reduced the risk of hospital admission by 60% among fully vaccinated adults in the low physical activity category.  But for adults in n the medium and high physical activity groups, the risk has been reduced by 72% and 86% respectively.  “Low physical activity” is defined as less than 60 minutes of activity per week, “medium physical activity” as 60-150 minutes per week, and “high physical activity” as 150 minutes or more per week – and I do as much as 150 minutes of hiking in a single day, as do many of my friends and acquaintances. 

During this time while I have been joyfully been tramping about in Shenandoah National Park, various events have been occurring on the national and international scene – some of them, alas, the reverse of joyful.

Disregarding subpoenas has become something of a fashion statement among Trump and his faction.  For example, Steve Bannon has been sentenced to four months in prison for his refusal to comply with a subpoena from the House committee investigating the January 6 riot at the US Capitol.  But it’s retribution without teeth; as a matter of course, he plans to appeal the ruling and the judge in the case has decreed that he will not serve any part of his sentence while the appeal process is ongoing. 

Again, Senator Lindsay Graham has been subpoenaed by the investigation conducted in Fulton County by Fani Willis.  He requested a lower appeals court to block this command to testify; and, after a unanimous three-judge panel on the 11th Circuit turned this appeal down with insulting speed and decision, moved it to the Supreme Court itself.  And this appeal has not been in vain:  Justice Clarence Thomas has issued a “temporary” block on the subpoena, of his own accord, not even referring the question to the remainder of the judges on the Supreme Court.  So the investigation initiated by Fulton County has received yet another delay and will no doubt receive as many other delays as Justice Thomas and his fellow Trump cronies have in their power to concoct.

Finally, Donald Trump himself has been formally issued a subpoena by the House investigating committee, but almost certainly he will not testify. He has invoked his fifth-amendment right against self-incrimination more than 400 times in a deposition during the fraud lawsuit by the New York Attorney General.  Does the committee really expect he will behave any differently towards them?  Although it is tempting to speculate whether his ever-present desire to exercise his powers of abuse and maledictions (in both of which he excels) will overcome his prudence.  So far no action has been taken against him for his thorough lack of cooperation in the New York lawsuit, and I do not expect any kind of initiative on the committee’s part either. Everyone is so anxious to handle Trump with kid gloves!

In the meantime the small fry continue to get penalized.  Mark Mazza, a Trump supporter who brought two guns to the Capitol on Jan. 6, and dropped one of them on Capitol grounds, was sentenced to 60 months in prison.  Mazza filed a false police report about the gun he dropped, claiming that it had been stolen from him.  Like many of the rioters, he bitterly regrets having allowed himself to be duped.  Before he was sentenced, Mazza told the court he got “caught up in a mob mentality that I never anticipated” and that he was “not quite the monster that the prosecution has described me as.”  Quite possibly – but, if not a monster himself, he participated in a monstrous uprising and deserves every hour of the sentence handed down to him by the judge.  I have no complaints about what was meted out to him; but as far as the main perpetrator is concerned, unfortunately, the goddess Nemesis appears to ignore him.

Still, there is one bright spot on the horizon.  The Trump Organization, if not Trump himself, is on the defensive.  The trial in which it has been accused of criminal tax fraud has begun today and even if it is doubtful that it will result in any direct penalties administered towards Trump, it does have the potential of eroding a major source of his financial power – and this, although grossly insufficient as a punishment for his numerous misdeeds, is at any rate better than nothing.

We are now beginning to see the effects of children being forced to learn remotely rather than in person for two years running as a result of the pandemic.  Preliminary test scores are confirming that the longer students received lessons via Zoom, the less they learned.  In some cases, third-graders are struggling to sound out words, while ninth-graders are giving up on school altogether because they feel so far behind that they can’t catch up.  From March 2020 to June 2021, the average student in Chicago lost 21 weeks of learning in reading and 20 weeks in math, equivalent to missing half a year of school.  Children whose schools met mostly online in the 2020-2021 school year performed 13 percentage points lower in math and 8 percentage points lower in reading compared with schools meeting mostly in person.  Students in eighth grade, a critical point in educational development, suffered setbacks in nearly every state, with three out of four failing to meet standards.  The Northeast, the area in which schools were the most likely to be closed for months, showed the greatest declines.  On the other hand, students at Catholic schools, which overwhelmingly reopened the fastest, saw no drops in average NAEP scores at all (save for in math among eighth graders). 

Liz Truss’s term as Prime Minister has not lasted long.  After a bare a month and a half, she has been ousted.  Her replacement is Rishi Sunak, who is the first man of Indian descent to occupy the position.  He became chancellor in 2020, and his popularity surged during the COVID pandemic when the Treasury dispensed billions to save jobs and support struggling Britons.  However, his popularity has dimmed somewhat in recent weeks, when it was revealed that his wife, Akshata Murty, had limited her tax exposure (she has since voluntarily paid the extra taxes) and that he himself retained a U.S. green card, hich would allow him to live permanently in the United States. He gave it up before making his first visit to the country as chancellor in October 2021. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:30 PM – # of cases worldwide:  633,055,580; # of deaths worldwide: 6,583,675; # of cases U.S.: 99,116,752; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,093,099.  The mortality rate for Americans is now down to 1.1%, quite a decline from the earlier stages of the pandemic. 

So I attended the Recreational Trails Summit conference for Northern Virginia and, apart from a free lunch (which is never to be despised), what did I gain from it?

It actually was very heartening to see so many state and county agencies involved in the effort to achieve an ambitious goal:  that of enabling all residents of the area to be within a 15-minute walk or a 5-minute bicycle ride to a regionally significant trail. We had representative from the Virginia Department of Health (VDH), the Department of Conservation and Recreation (DCR), and Northern Virginia Regional Commission, among others.  There were also a number of what might be called trail users:  those like myself who without holding any state or county position felt an interest in the status of the trail system in the area and its availability to the residents of Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun, and Prince William counties.

The first piece of information I received filled me with an emotion something like dismay:  the VDH representative told us that 70% of all Virginians can be classified as overweight or obese.  It is clear that, in terms of health care cost alone, it is in the state’s best interest to obtain an infrastructure that provides access to open-air exercise for its residents to the greatest extent possible.

It appears, also, that the effort to fill in the gaps of the Potomac Heritage Trail has accelerated in the past several months.  There was a workshop devoted to prioritizing the gaps that needed to be closed up and to identify any gaps that the agencies may not have included in their analysis.  I put in a plea to attend to the crossing on the PHT at Pimmit Run, which has been washed out for years; time will whether this attempt on my part has any effect.

There are numerous other trails that are being developed and extended.  The last time I went along the Occoquan Greenway (which was some years ago), there was not a great deal to see; but it seems to have been improved since that time, and there are plans to extend it to Occoquan Regional Park and eventually to Occoquan itself.  Many new trails are planned for Loudoun County, including a Winery Trail and also a cross-county trail similar to the one in Fairfax. 

Of course all of this effort is not restricted to hikers.  The trails are also designed for bicyclists, especially for the purposes of commuting – the Department of Transportation is, quite naturally, trying to reduce the amount of traffic on the roads.  The use of e-bikes will not only be tolerated but encouraged, even to the extent of setting up charging stations on some of the more widely-used trails. 

Of special interest to me was the workshop on mapping.  There is a need to collect data on features of the trails such as availability of restrooms (many of the trails pass through county or state park with such facilities), benches, picnic tables, etc., and also to identify deficiencies in wayfinding.  I pricked up my ears at this last item, because certain trails, such as the Fairfax Cross-County Trail, are very poorly marked.  So when they talked about the need for volunteers once the methodology of data collection was finalized, I pointed out that there are several local hiking clubs from whom they should be able to find recruits.  I certainly would participate in such an effort willingly.

It was all very far-ranging and elaborate, and at times I wondered whether it was excessively so.  But the conference was not merely formulating a wish-list; quite a lot of money has been allocated by various federal, state, and county agencies, all of whom are anxious to establish a better level of health in the state population than is currently the case.  The reduced health costs alone would justify the funding, and when the reduction of vehicle emissions, increase in tourism, and improvements in the environment are factored in, it is evident that the government agencies are anticipating rich returns for the investment in trail infrastructure. It would be an unexpected development from the pandemic, but not at all an impossible one, if it results in a long-term increase in out-of-door exercise among the American population at large.

Hikes after returning from the trip – An Iranian athlete without a hijab – A possible reversal of declining birth rates – Evening statistics

After returning from the trip, I naturally had to attend to various chores that piled up during the evening after the drive home and the following day:  laundry, going through the accumulated mail, lawn-mowing, etc.  But on Sunday I hiked with the Wanderbirds along a circuit involving the Appalachian Trail in Shenandoah National Park going over North and South Marshall, and returning via the Bluff and Mt. Marshall Trails.  It is strange to look back upon a time in my salad days when I looked upon the ascents of the two Marshalls as being formidable; now they appear to me very easy indeed, involving hardly any effort at all.  Our bus had a much higher attendance than in previous weeks.  To my surprise several hikers from the Capital Hiking Club signed up for this hike; there generally has been little mixing between the two groups, even though some (like myself) belong to both,.  The forecast had initially been for rain, was then modified to being merely cloudy, and in the event we had a sunny day with temperatures in the 60s and low humidity – perfect weather for hiking.  The foliage is less advanced in this area than in the ranges I had hiked in during the previous week, but there was still plenty of color throughout the hike.

On Tuesday I went with the Vigorous Hikers club on the Rose River/Camp Rapidan/Dark Hollow Falls loop.  The group split into two sub-groups, one taking the fire road directly to Big Meadows and eliminating the loop to Camp Rapidan and the Mill Prong Trail that was used by the second sub-group.  This loop adds about 2 miles and 500 feet of elevation gain, for a total of 18 miles and 3000 feet.  I and two others went at a fairly brisk pace, and we were able to meet the other sub-group just at the point where the two routes converged.  From there we went to have lunch at the Big Meadows lodge.  It seemed rather odd to request a table for thirteen people when several of them had not yet arrived, but the wait staff appeared used to such a situation and displayed no surprised as others streamed in at various intervals after the first arrivals (the three of us plus the hike leader) were seated.  The foliage was less vivid than it had been in the area where I had been hiking last week and the temperature was colder than I expected, but eventually the clouds parted and it became a beautiful day during the second part of the hike.

There have been other tasks to attend to, connected with preparing directions for driving and hiking to the various hikes in November for both Capital and Wanderbirds, not to mention the upcoming hike I am lead this coming Sunday (the 23^rd), so I have not been following the news very closely this week. 

There are a few items of interest.  Elnaz Rekabi, a sports climber, competed in South Korea without wearing a headscarf.  She was clearly nervous after the event about what sort of reception she would get from the authorities upon her return to Texas – er, no, I mean Iran (I am always making that mistake).  Rebaki has been at some pains to reassure the public that her omission was quite unintentional.  To be sure, a hijab is not the most useful or convenient garment to wear when scrambling up a rock wall, so that her “forgetting” to don it after putting on her shoes and her gear may been done accidentally on purpose.  Hijabs are mandatory in Iran for women whenever they emerge from their homes.  Recently Mahsa Amini, a 22-year old, was detained by the country’s police merely for wearing her hijab “too loosely” – whatever that means – while venturing out of doors without one and eventually died in a hospital after being beaten repeatedly by them.  This episode sparked several protests, which have been cracked down upon severely; the death toll among the protestors is estimated to be at least 200.  Therefore, it is by no means surprising that Rebaki underwent, in her own words, “a lot of stress and tension” as she traveled back to Austin – there I go again!  I meant Tehran, of course.  It is not at all clear what has happened to her since her arrival in her homeland.  She was greeted by jubilant crowds celebrating her defiance of this repressive law, but after she entered a van and was driven away her whereabouts are currently unknown.

We have recently been having, if not exactly a baby boom, at any rate a “baby bump.”  More women became pregnant during the pandemic, chiefly because the shift from working in offices to working from home made child-rearing easier.  It is the first major reversal in declining U.S. fertility rates since 2007.  Pandemic relief funding may also have played a role.  Birth rates have gone up 6.2% by the end of 2021 for US-born mothers, relative to the pre-pandemic trend.  It will be interesting to see if the trend continues now that relief funding has been cut back.  For the moment, however, the findings are reassuring.

Today’s statistics as of 9:30 PM – # of cases worldwide: 631,411,347; # of deaths worldwide: 6,576,388; # of cases U.S.: 98,987,014; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,092,031.  Increases in cases and deaths still remain gratifyingly low compared with previous months.

Hiking in central Virginia, the individual hikes

10/7, Beagle Gap to Rockfish Gap and back, 11 miles, 1000 feet

I had not completed one last little bit of the Appalachian Trail in Shenandoah National Park.  Since the south entrance involved only a minor detour from the trip to the house we were renting, I decided to complete this segment.  Ironically, AD had the same idea and we actually met on the trail, when she was going north and I was heading south.  AD had merely a one-way hike, since she was being shuttled by RH.  I, on the other hand, was on my own, so my hike was a there-and-back.  The hike itself was not especially interesting.  The sole viewpoint (at the communications tower) was obstructed by clusters of trees.  But it was a lovely day and it was very pleasant to walk amid the foliage as it was just beginning to change color.

10/8, Rte. 621 to Rte. 630, 10.7 miles, 2400 feet

Most of the hikes I started with BM from one end of the route while AD, RH, and others started from the other, so that we could access cars at both ends of the segment and were not obliged to spend time on shuttling.  BM and I generally received the options with the greater amount of elevation gain.  On this hike the two groups met almost at the precise center of the segment, where we lunched together.  The route that BM and I used started with an ascent that lasted for four miles.  It never was very steep but it contained several short rocky patches that sometimes were a bit of a scramble.  Towards the summit we passed the Eastern Continental Divide.  There were many views along rock slabs on the north side of the ridgeline.  One part of the valley below displayed autumn foliage in full color, contrasting with the green-leafed slope above.  The second half of our hike contained several minor ascents, never lasting very long and not at all difficult.  We met two very pleasant women section-hikers, whom we were to see again on several of the subsequent hikes.  There were several curious stone structures close to the trail.  They could not be kilns or ovens, for they had no hollow area, and the rocks were too carefully fitted to one another to be stones discarded by farmers as they were plowing the land.  My guess is that they are some sort of burial mound, but it is only a guess on my part.  The final descent was easier than I anticipated; it contained several stone steps cut in to aid the hikers.  This was the coolest hike of the week, after which the weather became steadily warmer; but even on this day it was never cold and the sunny skies made the air seem warmer.

10/9, Rte. 632 to Rte.630, 8.3 miles, 2400 feet

The first half was a pleasant but average hike.  But the final few miles were more memorable.  We began by ascending about 2½ miles, a shorter ascent that the one we experienced yesterday, but somewhat steeper.  We met the same two section-hikers we had seen yesterday, after which we went along a rather steep descent to a shelter, where we had lunch.  From there we came to Sinking Creek Valley, where we saw lovely, far-ranging views of farmland flanked by mountains.  The overlooks were different from the ones usually seen from “balds” (mountain summits with few or no trees); the views are similarly expansive, but seen only a few feet above the fields instead of hundreds of feet above them. 

10/10, Rte. 632 to Rte. 635, 11.2 miles, 2300 feet

This hike was somewhat less enjoyable than the preceding ones.  BM and I started with two friends of his (they eventually turned back 3.7 miles into the hike) up an ascent that was fairly gradual.  But after it became relatively level there was a two-mile segment that was covered with rocks, almost as bad as some of the worst parts of northern Pennsylvania, especially as they were strewn with wet fallen leaves. Parts of the path were overgrown as well.  Then the trail became less rocky and led to the Wind Rock overlook, which provided 180-degree views of the valley below.  Again we met the two section-hikers, who were completing a period of backpacking and planning to return to their cars in the afternoon,  The final descent was quite steep for the first mile, but afterwards became more gradual. 

10/11, Rte. 635 to Groundhog Trail, 10.7 miles, 2300 feet

With this hike both AD and I completed the portion of the Appalachian Trail that runs through Virginia, nearly one-quarter of the entire trail.  But it was somewhat anti-climactic.  The beginning consisted of rolling ups and downs, followed by a very gradual ascent to the Peters Mountain ridgeline, with numerous switchbacks.  There were no overlooks to speak of.  The only highlight was an encounter with a herd of goats that obviously had belonged to a farm at one point.  They were quite bold in approaching me, and in any case wild goats are not native to the eastern American forests.  When they seemed to be coming too close I banged my hiking poles together to intimidate them with the clacking noise.  It worked; they turned and fled, going along the trail in front of me.  They would run on for a bit, then slow down, and as I started coming towards them along the trail they would run again.  The descend along the Groundhog Trail, which leads from the ridgeline to a parking area, was easier than I expected.

10/12, Groundhog Trail to Pearisburg, 15 miles, 2800 feet

On this hike five of us all went together, using shuttling to have cars at the beginning and end points.  AD, RH, and I had actually done this hike before, but it was several years ago and the trail has been slightly rerouted since that time – so at least we were assured.  It was difficult to see where any rerouting had taken place; possibly in the area at the summit of Peters Mountain, near the powerline.  The ascent along the Groundhog Trail contained nearly half of the total elevation gain for the hike.  Once we reached the ridgeline we went along minor ups and downs for six miles, eventually reaching the Ricefield shelter.  There were several views at Symms Gap Meadows and more in the vicinity of the communication tower, where the contours of the valley were highlighted by the bird’s-eye view of Pearisburg to the south and various unincorporated villages in West Virginia to the north.  After we lunched at the overlook close to the shelter we descended very gently through forest that contained autumn foliage at its peak.  A brief ascent to Hemlock Ridge broke up what could otherwise have been a monotonous continual downhill.  The only drawback was the last mile of the route, which went along a major traffic artery (Rte. 460) and the bridge over the New River—noisy, with an abundance of exhaust fumes from the trucks on the road.  After going over the river the trail returned, thank Heaven, to quiet forest canopy.  The five of us covered the 15 miles in 5¾, and we spent over 15 minutes for our lunch break, which meant that our average moving speed was about 2.75 MPH for the entirety of the hike.

10/13, Hanging Point Observatory, 2 miles, 850 feet

Most of us were inclined to take things easy, partly because the forecast originally called for rain (which never materialized).  AD, CB, and I went to the Hanging Point Observatory in the morning.  The hike is brief, slightly over a mile in each direction to the tower and back, but rich in results; the views from the tower are spending.  At the tower we met “Mischief,” a bilateral foot amputee who has hiked the entire Appalachian Trail and who intends to hike dozens of other trails for a total of over 25,000 miles.  I will not recount his story in detail, since he has several websites of his own that describe his experiences; suffice it to say that his feet became frostbitten after an accident in 2019, forcing him to undergo operations that removed portions of both feet.  Doctors told him that he would never be able to walk again, but he has managed not merely to resume walking on paved ground to hike hundreds of miles on trails, a truly amazing study in sheer determination.

In the afternoon CB and I went to Lost World Caverns, a cave filled with stalactites and stalagmites, and rock walls with intricate natural filigree patterns and many unique formations.  The “Bridal Veil,” a column of sparkling white calcite, is perhaps the most striking of these.  We liked it much better than Luray; it is self-guided, which meant that we were spared the annoyance of a guide flooding us with irrelevancies, and there were no gimmicky artifacts such as the famous (or should I say notorious?) Stalacpipe Organ.  The tour contained various placards alongside the main trail winding through the cavern providing brief explanations of the factors that created the unique formations which visitors could read at their leisure; outside of these aids, the beauties of the rock wonderland were allowed to speak for themselves. 

Hiking in central Virginia – The renewal of COVID as a state of emergency – Nemesis overtakes Alex Jones – Evening statistics

I have just returned from completing a section of the Appalachian Trail in central Virginia.  As with all such trips organized by AD and RH, we stayed in a house in a rural location convenient for driving to parking areas for the AT.  As always, we relied on ourselves for meals rather than going to restaurants and we dined very well indeed.  The description of the individual hikes will have to be deferred to a later entry (it will take a while to write), but there are a few general characteristics that can be noted.  We had splendid weather throughout the week, most of the days clear and sunny, and all of them moderate in temperature.  The sole day that had rain in the forecast eventually turned out to be merely cloudy at times.  The section of the trail that we covered – from Rte. 621to Pearisburg – is not an especially striking portion of the AT, but our hikes coincided with the beginning of the peak autumn foliage.  The colors are more vivid in that area than they will probably turn out here, since the valleys and peaks we went through have had the optimum combination of warm (but not hot) days and cool nights.  The house in which we stayed was by far the best-equipped of any in our experience, including a particularly well-stocked kitchen.  There were only two bathrooms, but each bedroom contained a washstand as well.  It was located in the Greenbrier Valley, and every morning and evening we had beautiful views of the range containing Peter’s Mountain.  The drives to the parking areas frequently involved roads that had to accommodate the contours of the ridges they passed over, and they could be narrow and winding as a result.  But the roads are well-maintained and the majority of them are paved.  The group as a whole covered about 55 miles in all.  For AD and myself, the hikes that we took during the trip completed hiking the entirety of the Appalachian Trail that runs through Virginia – and it should be borne in mind that Virginia contains nearly 550 miles of the AT, about one-quarter of the AT total mileage.

A significant COVID-related event occurred yesterday.  The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) renewed the declaration of COVID as a state of emergency.  The next time of re-evaluation of COVID’s status will occur in January.  This seems a prudent measure to take, in view of the fact that winter is approaching, and COVID-related deaths have spiked dramatically during the preceding two winters.  In all probability any spike that occurs this coming winter will be considerably less damaging, but it is just as well to wait until the most dangerous season has passed and to assess its effects before declaring that the pandemic is over.  Even as it is, nearly all of the states have ended the state of emergency status individually.  After October 31^st, only California, Kansas, and West Virginia will maintain the state of emergency that has been renewed by HHS. 

It will be seen that defining the end of the COVID pandemic is a matter of some difficulty.  Daniel Defoe’s Journal of the Plague Year, which inspired the title for this record, described the Great Plague of London.  Bubonic plague had been endemic in European cities, but it still broke out into massive epidemics from time to time.  This particular one caused over 100,000 deaths in London, about a quarter of the city’s population.  However, when it ended, it proved to be the last major outbreak of plague that England was to experience – hence the note of finality towards the end of Defoe’s journal:

“However, it pleased God, by the continuing of the winter weather, so to restore the health of the city that by February following we reckoned the distemper quite ceased, and then we were not so easily frighted again.”

We already know that COVID is not in the least likely to become “quite ceased” and that in all probability we (not merely Americans but the global population at large) will have to be resigned to a certain amount of debilitating disease and loss of life on an annual basis, just as we do now with several diseases such as malaria and the flu.  So when does a disease transition from a state of emergency to a merely endemic one?  Perhaps we will learn the answer this coming winter.

Alex Jones, after having been found liable for suppressing evidence of his defaming the victims of the Sandy Hook massacre, has just undergone a trial assessing the damages to be awarded to the families of the murdered school-children whom he traduced.  The jury handed down 15 individual awards that ranged from $28.8 million to $120 million, totaling $965 million in compensatory damages.  And this amount does not include the punitive damages, which have as yet to be determined.  Some post-trial motions undoubtedly will be held, and a court has the option of reducing the amount to what it considers to be reasonable damages, but the likelihood is that even in such a scenario Jones will still be liable for hundreds of millions of dollars.  His assets total to less than a third of the amount he has been ordered to pay, so he may very well be reduced to a subsistence lifestyle for many years to come – a fitting climax to a story of a fortune acquired by a career of years of lying and chicanery with the deliberate intention of tormenting relatives mourning the victims of murder.  And so the whirligig of time brings in his revenges!

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 629,276,649; # of deaths worldwide: 6,569,648; # of cases U.S.: 98,811,369; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,090,287.  For the current season, at any rate, COVID now appears containable.  The mortality rate is well under 1%, both nationally and globally.

COVID waning in the public’s attention – Potential upsurge this coming winter – A Proud Boys member pleads guilty – Evening statistics

COVID has been mentioned with decreasing frequency in this journal, reflecting its status in the news headlines at large.  The President has already declared that the pandemic is over; the CDC, while not going so far as to endorse this, is basically behaving as if special measures are no longer needed.  It will no longer issue daily updates of new COVID cases and deaths; on October 20^th it will switch to issuing to weekly updates instead.  Many individual states and, for that matter, individual counties, have been providing weekly rather than daily updates for some time. 

But aren’t we being just a trifle over-optimistic?  Winter will be coming in a couple of months, and during the previous two winters both case incidence and mortality rates went up dramatically.  COVID cases are rising on the other side of the Atlantic even now.  In the U.K., the number of COVID cases this week went up nearly 11% over the number of cases during the preceding week.  The newer variants up to this point have been less deadly than their predecessors, but they still have a higher mortality rate than that of influenza.  The influx of cold weather and reduced outdoor activity has the potential of generating a new upsurge of deaths.  I would be delighted to be proved wrong.

 Jeremy Bertino, a North Carolina leader of the Proud Boys, is now the first member of that group to plead guilty to seditious conspiracy for attacking the Capitol.  Bertino actually was not present at that event, having been wounded during a previous rally (a violent one, naturally) nearly a month earlier, but he helped to orchestrate the event and recruited others to participate.  His sentencing date has not been set.  His next hearing is scheduled for February, 2023, and during the interim he will not be permitted to hold a passport or have access to a firearm.  Whether this measure will be effectively carried out remains to be seen.  When Enrique Tarrio, for whom Bertino acted as lieutenant, was arrested in March 2021, a search conducted of Bertino’s house discovered six firearms, including an AR-15 rifle with a scope, and more than 3,000 rounds of ammunition, despite the fact that. Bertino had previously been convicted of a felony and was (supposedly) not allowed to own a firearm even then.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 625,278,152; # of deaths worldwide: 6,556,879; # of cases U.S.: 98,465,522; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,087,274.  In two weeks it will be a waste of effort to track statistics on a daily basis – see above.

South Run and Lake Mercer – Contrasting attitudes of New Zealanders and Americans during the pandemic – Restaurant dining (not enforced by travel) – Accusation against Hans Niemann – Evening statistics

Many of Jane Austen’s sentences are a source of delight to me regardless of their context, but there is one from Pride and Prejudice that seems particularly apposite today:  “Mrs. Bennet was restored to her usual querulous serenity.”  Now that I look back upon my recent complaints about the rainy weather, they seem to me fretful and even peevish.  Residents in Florida have felt the effects of the recent hurricane, which has merely brushed by this area, to a much more severe degree than we have.  A popular vacationing spot, Sanibel Island, is now declared to be uninhabitable and its population is being forced to find living quarters elsewhere.  Thousands of people in the Cape Coral-Fort Myers metropolitan area have been without power for days and have been required to boil their water before using it.  What have we had to endure in the mid-Atlantic states by way of contrast?  Some wet and rather chilly days that didn’t even bring in an extraordinary accumulation and that never at any time broke out into a severe downpour:  the rain consisted mainly of drizzle and off-and-on showers. 

The reappearance of the sun today would in itself have been a restorative to my mood, but yesterday also was exceedingly pleasant.  I went with the Vigorous Hikers on a route beginning at South Run and continuing to the Cross County Trail (further south than the portion I covered last week) and then back again via the circuit around Lake Mercer.  The weather was cool and damp but we had no rain, and the stream crossings were not troublesome at all.  (As I said above, the actual amount of rainfall was not enormous, despite the continual hours of overcast skies.)  There were not many of us, but we had the pleasure of the inclusion of MS, who had frequently hiked with us before she became a resident of New Zealand.  She has been paying a visit to the U.S. and was able to join us while staying in the DC area.  We completed 13 miles.  Normally we would have extended the hike by circumnavigating Burke Lake as well, but we decided not to risk starting around the circuit (it is nearly an additional six miles, including the connector trail between South Run and Burke Lake) and being caught by a rainstorm. 

MS and I fell into conversation during the hike, and she gave me a good deal of information about life in New Zealand during the pandemic.  In general, there has been much less turmoil about it than what we have undergone here.  There may have been the odd holdout here and there who resisted taking the vaccines, but by and large people received them with the same sang-froid that Americans displayed about taking the polio vaccine in the early 1960s.  Then, too, New Zealand has seen no counterpart to the displays of screaming hysterics and physical violence from pampered over-indulged women with a grossly exaggerated idea of their personal importance when asked to comply with mask mandates in shops and restaurants.  MS added that the enthusiasm that Jacinda Ardern has evoked from foreign observers is not reciprocated to the same degree by several New Zealanders; but she admitted that at no point did Ardern display anything like the blatant irresponsibility and eventual treasonous conduct of our late President – but I must not belabor this last point, I’ve said too much about it already.

Several of us dined together that same evening.  I have eaten at several restaurants during my recent trips, but that was mainly because it was impossible to get fed otherwise.  I had gotten out of the habit of dining in restaurants while staying back home, so it felt strange at first to see that dining out has become as relaxed and stress-free as it had been before the pandemic began.  The fare was simple but satisfying, and we chatted comfortably together about travel plans and the comings and goings of mutual acquaintances.  Even in this situation, however, we were not completely untouched by the pandemic:  during our conversation it was mentioned that LH, who under normal conditions would have hiked with us that day, had contracted COVID and was currently in self-isolation.

During the hike, also, TK and CC touched upon the recent scandal that is rocking the chess-playing community:  namely, the accusations of cheating by Magnus Carlson against Hans Niemann.  Niemann has admitted to cheating in the past in games played against computers, but denies having cheated in any over-the-board games.  Cheating online is easy enough to do:  one can play against a computer at one workstation and then access the moves recommended by chess engines via a second, independently powered workstation.  But it seems unbelievable that he could cheat in a live tournament.  Even the aid of an unseen accomplice would not be of much use:  the position of the game has a 15-minute time lag time before it can be viewed by the spectators, so that at almost any point in the game it is impossible for anyone except the two players and the officials to know the placement of the pieces at any given time (unless one of the players takes more than fifteen minutes to make a single move, but that does not happen very often in matches that stipulate that players make forty moves in two hours).  On the other hand, Niemann has replicated the moves recommended by chess engines with uncanny accuracy – far greater than that of the other masters.  And he is only nineteen years old.  That is not exactly impossible – for all anyone knows, Niemann might be the greatest player ever in the history of chess – but it is extremely unlikely.  FIDE, the governing organization of international chess competition, is currently investigating the matter.  It may be added that Niemann has stated that he is prepared to play naked, in “a closed box with zero electronic transmission,” in order to prove his innocence – which certainly shows a degree of confidence in the outcome.

Oath Keepers on trial – A fishy competition – Oncoming economic crisis in Turkey – The lifting of travel health notices – The end of the pandemic in sight, at least officially – Evening statistics

Another day of rain, the third one in a row, and on this day I went on no hike and indeed hardly ventured out at all.  The weather and the inactivity have affected my mood, for even the news that five members of the Oath Keepers are formally charged with sedition, which ordinarily would have been a source of great gratification, has aroused little more than a passing interest.  I suppose that all of the arraigning of Trump’s minions on various charges of increasing severity will slowly erode the grip he has been exerting upon the American political scene since 2016, but the operative word in that sentence is “slowly.”  When, oh when, will Trump be formally be charged in his own person?  I realize that he is a former President and that for that reason the cases against him (for there are several) must be carefully prepared, but I have seen glaciers move more rapidly than the district attorneys who claim to be on the verge of arraigning him.

However, at least some of the headlines are less somber. Jason Fischer, director of the Lake Erie Walleye Trail tournament, a fishing competition in Ohio (it must be admitted that his surname is curiously appropriate for such an enterprise), immediately became suspicious when one team turned in fish that weighed nearly twice as much as their size would have indicated.  When he inspected the fish he felt hard objects inside them.  A closer inspection showed that the team stuffed the fish that they caught with lead weights and fish fillets.  One would think that so obvious a subterfuge would be easily detected; but Jacob Runyon and Chase Cominsky, the two team members, have won several similar tournaments in the past, which suggests that most tournament directors can be duped fairly easily.

Turkey is on the verge of an economic crisis similar to that of Germany in the years after World War I.  It now has an inflation rate of 83%, the highest it’s been in a quarter of century.  As the value of the lira plummets, imports such as gas and fertilizers for producing goods (which form a critical portion of Turkish national economy) become prohibitively expensive for the farmers who use them.  It’s all due to President Erdogan’s stubborn insistence on cutting interest rates in an effort, he says, to boost the economy; though, as the majority of the populace are already driven to such straits as cutting down on the amount of food they eat and more than 20% of young men in Turkey are unemployed, he cannot fail to leave them in a more impoverished condition than he found them.

The CDC is dropping the country-by-country COVID-19 travel health notices that it began issuing early in the pandemic.  CDC spokeswoman Kristen Nordlund said the agency will only post a travel health notice for an individual country if a situation such as a troubling new variant of the virus.  Many countries are no longer testing for the virus or reporting the number of COVID-19 cases, which means that the CDC has no longer has the means of calculating the risk of traveling to them.  This is reassuring news in one sense – it means that the logistics of travel become less complicated – but it also means that one could very easily travel to a country that consistently under-reports its mortality rate (Mexico and Brazil come to mind) and thereby land into a hotbed of infection. 

COVID’s classification as a state of emergency may be seeing its final days.  The national state of emergency still remains in effect, but on a state-by-state basis only the following states still give COVID an emergency status:  Washington, California, Colorado, New Mexico, Kansas, Texas, Illinois, Georgia, West Virginia, Delaware, Connecticut and Rhode Island.  For most of these, COVID;s emergency status will come to an end by October 31^st or sooner.  Only California, Kansas, and West Virginia will wait longer.  If the national declaration of the state of emergency is not renewed after October 13^th, of course, then the pandemic may be said to be officially at an end. 

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 623,654,574; # of deaths worldwide: 6,551,590; # of cases U.S.: 98,270,417; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,084,961.  The statistics seem to bear out that the disease is becoming endemic.  Today’s death toll among Americans was well under 100 and the number of new cases is less than 10,000.

Hiking nearly 50 miles in three days – Trump menaces McConnell – Evening statistics

I have been out and about, despite the weather.  On Friday I went with RS on the Fairfax Cross County Trail, starting from Lake Accotink and ending at Difficult Run.  It was a long day, for we took a detour on account of the trail around the lake being closed for repairs; in the end I did about 29 miles.  The rainclouds lowered towards the mid-afternoon, but there was no rainfall until well after 4:00, and even then it was only sprinkles.  I was glad of this, for the last stream crossing along Difficult Run can indeed be difficult if the rocks on the crossing are wet, but we had had so much dry weather earlier that they proved to be quite easy to traverse.

Saturday I went with the Capital Hiking Club on the Appalachian Trail in Pennsylvania, starting from Pine Grove Rd. and ending at Boiling Springs.  The weather was wet – wetter, in fact, than the forecast led us to believe that it would be.  It rained more or less continually from 11:00 onwards, tapering off only about 2:30, when we were approaching the bus.  Boiling Springs is undergoing a rather unfortunate phase that I earnestly hope is only temporary.  It seems to have fallen into disarray and is undergoing a state of repair.  The historic tavern is closed for renovations; Children’s Pond has been drained, and the hot spring is currently not active.  It is still a lovely place, with its array of 19^th-century architecture, but it was something of a letdown that day from the memories I had of past visits there.

The forecast for today was ominous, and in preparation I had included a complete change of clothes after the hike I co-led for the Wanderbirds in Susquehanna State Park.  But this precaution turned out to be unnecessary.  it was a much easier hike than yesterday’s in every respect.  The temperature was warmer than that of the day before; the rain was sporadic and for the most part consisted of mild drizzle; the fact that the hike involved less elevation gain made it possible for me to use one hiking pole only, leaving the other hand free to hold an umbrella whenever the rain became troublesome.  And the Susquehanna River is undoubtedly one of the loveliest rivers in the country, even in these conditions; it had a silvery quality today that contrasted with the low clouds and the mild infusion of moisture in the air.  At the Conowingo Dam, where the bus was parked, gulls and cormorants and terns were skimming over the river’s surface searching for fish as the water flowed through the gates of the dam.  It turned out to be quite a lovely day, despite the gloomy forecasts of the meteorologists.

There is little news of interest, except for the fact the Trump has turned upon Mitch McConnell, declaring in a Truth Social post (Truth Social is Trump’s hastily-cobbled substitute social medium for Twitter, which continues to ban him) that McConnell must have a “death wish” – hinting at a forthcoming assassination.  He included a racist slur on McConnell’s wife, Elaine Chao, for good measure. 

But is this really news?  Surely the fact that Trump has repaid the support of an erstwhile devotee with abuse and insults and death threats cannot come across as a novelty to anyone.  His entire career is littered with cases of men and women who have rallied to his cause in the past and who received castigation and calumny as their reward once his relationship with them soured.  It is a source of continual amazement to me that anyone would trust him for five minutes on end.  But they do, despite all of the warnings his past behavior has provided, and it is difficult to feel sympathy for these victims of his.  As the Chinese proverb has it, “He who falls into the same ditch twice deserves to break his neck.”

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 623,446,488; # of deaths worldwide: 6,550,572; # of cases U.S.: 98,254,626; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,084,892.