Month: November 2022

Recent hikes – Convictions of Oath Keepers – Declining Christianity in England – Rising influenza rates – Evening statistics

There has been much hiking of late but a dearth of news.  That is to say, I went with RS in a loop of 22 miles around the city, starting from Arlington Cemetery, on Saturday; and I went with the Wanderbirds in the Great Falls area on the Maryland bank Sunday, scrambling over the Billy Goat Trail.  Both of which were extremely enjoyable, although in retrospect it probably was not the best choice to attempt the extremely rocky Billy Goat Trail with rain in the forecast.  The rain in fact did begin to fall some time after I passed the halfway point, making the rocks very slippery.  But I made it to the end without any ill effects.

In the news, however, I saw little beyond reports of various experts proclaiming that something ominous is “going to” happen to Trump as a result of the investigating committee’s findings – as they have been predicting for months on end, and yet somehow this threatened thunderbolt refrains from falling on Trump’s head and he makes his plans for his campaign in 2024 quite unimpeded.  Merrick Garland persists in dragging his feet on the matter, and even the suit in Fulton County, for which I had entertained great hopes in this respect, shows no signs of coming to an issue. 

Today, at any rate, the drop has fallen, if not on Trump himself, at any rate on one of his most prominent supporters.  Elmer Stewart Rhodes, founder of the Oath Keepers, along with Kelly Meggs, who runs this group’s Florida chapter, were both found guilty of seditious conspiracy.  Their colleagues Thomas Caldwell, Jessica Watkins, and Kenneth Harrelson managed to evade conviction on that charge, but were still convicted of obstructing an official proceeding, a charge seen in many of the other trials of those who assaulted the Capitol.  Prosecutors showed stills from security cameras in which defendants could be seen wheeling in large cases of the supplies, which a “QRF,” or quick reaction force, could transport to the Capitol if needed.  Such an arrangement was necessary to further their plans because although DC has very strict gun-control laws, those of our happy state are much more relaxed and Virginian hunters have virtually unrestricted access to weapons that enable them to hunt down deer, bears, elk, turkeys, hikers, bikers, and various other game suitable for the season.  Text messages showed Caldwell debating whether he should have a boat on hand to ferry the weapons across the Potomac River, although Caldwell denied that was ever his plan. He testified that a text-message reference to moving “heavy weapons” was an excerpt out of a screenplay he was writing.  This ingenious defense, apparently, was not taken as seriously as he initially appeared to expect; prosecutors had visible difficulty in keeping a straight face in response.  Sentencing for all five defendants should take place within the next few weeks.

Christianity is no longer the majority religion in England and Wales.  The amount of English and Welsh who classify themselves as Christian is down to 46% of the population, a significant drop from the 59% of a decade ago.  The biggest gainer is the group who declared themselves to be of “no religion,” from 25% a decade ago to 37% now.  Buddhists, Jews, and Sikhs maintained roughly the same ratio as before, while Islam appears to be the only gainer, going up from 5% to 6.5%. 

Two-third of states across the country are reporting either “very high” or “high” levels of influenza-like activity, according to the CDC.  During this time last year, all states were reporting “low” or “moderate” levels of activity, with only New Mexico and Rhode Island reporting “high” levels.  The hospitalization rate, which sits at 11.3 per 100,000, continues to be the highest for this time in the season since the 2010-2011 season.  So far there have been at least 6.2 million illnesses, 53,000 hospitalizations, and 2,900 deaths from influenza.  For those inclined to worry about the rising influenza rates, however, it must be pointed out that COVID still remains the third leading cause of death in the U.S. after heart disease and cancer – which is a comfort, at any rate.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 645,626,817; # of deaths worldwide: 6,635,241; # of cases U.S.:  100,456,053; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,104,743. 

At Cacapon State Park – Travel via public transportation versus travel by car – A quiet Thanksgiving celebration – Consumer spending – Trump causes more difficulties for his supporters – The European Parliament and Russia – COVID steadily accelerates – Evening statistics

The past few days have not been without incident, but I have been arriving back home so late or so tired (or both) that trying to make daily entries was simply too much of an effort.

On Tuesday I went with the Vigorous Hikers to Cacapon State Park in West Virginia.  This hike was not, in the past, a favorite of mine – chiefly because three miles of it is along a gravel road that leads to Cacapon Mountain Overlook, which is a very popular sight among tourists.  We generally have done the hike in the summer, to take advantage of the swimming it offers; and it was not pleasant to walk on the road with cars passing by in both directions and churning dust in the air as they passed.  But, as it happens, the road is closed to automobiles from November to April, and under such circumstances the hike becomes much more satisfying.  The park center is located in the shadow of a folded mountain ridge, and the views of the valley as one ascends are more extensive in this season, when the leaves have fallen.  The route we chose actually ascended the ridgeline twice – both of the ascents are steep and challenging, especially the second one.  The Cacapon Mountain Overlook is the highlight of the hike; it is the highest point in the Eastern panhandle of West Virginia and its vista comprises the mountain range going through four states:  Pennsylvania, Maryland, West Virginia, and Virginia.  We had a splendid day, cold at the beginning but steadily becoming warmer, with clear and intensely blue skies throughout.  However, after 16 miles, 3000 feet of elevation gain, and 2 hours of driving in each direction to the trailhead and back, I felt fairly drained by the time I returned home.

From Wednesday to today I was without a car.  The malfunction indicator light went on during the drive home from Cacapon, so I took it to the dealership on Wednesday.  The mechanics needed more than a day to complete the diagnosis, and of course they were closed on Thursday, so I could not obtain the car again until late this afternoon.  In the meantime I had to rely on public transportation.  It is illuminating to see to the extent to which residents of American cities are dependent on cars for traveling.  You can get to where you want in most cases via public transportation, but it takes longer – significantly so at times – and it requires a good deal more planning.  Thus on Thanksgiving, when I visited my friends DC and JC in Franconia, it took several hours to go to their house and back, whereas it normally takes me less than a half-hour to get there by car.  In fairness it must be noted that the day was Thanksgiving, when the buses and trains have a restricted schedule.  Similarly, today I went to an informal reunion among acquaintances from high school days who live in the area.  The meeting took place close to the Glenmont station, at the northernmost station end of the Red Line, and I had to travel from Vienna, the westernmost station of the Orange line – a journey of well over an hour, not counting the bus rides to the Vienna station and back from the Vienna station upon my return.  By car the total transportation time in both directions is well under 90 minutes.

My relatives had a Thanksgiving celebration in New York, but I was unable to attend because I’m in the middle of having work done on the electrical system in my house.  Still, as the above notes indicate, I was not without resources.  I have in fact celebrated the previous two Thanksgiving Days with DC and JC, and we have always enjoyed being together during this time of the year.  It is somewhat less stressful for my own part as well; traveling to New York during the week of Thanksgiving is exhausting, whether by car, train, bus, or airplane. 

I have made a strenuous effort to avoid the stores, as I generally do on Black Friday.  It appears that on this occasion I am not alone.  The number of shoppers who have gone to stores in person is lower this year than usual.  Many prefer to order online instead.   This doesn’t mean that sales are down – quite the contrary.  Many households have saved money over the past two years, due to spending less on travel and entertainment; low unemployment rates and increases in wages have also been important factors.  They now have money to spend, and they are doing so enthusiastically.  Consumers have been shopping earlier this year and retail spending in October was up 1.3% over a year ago.  Online shopping has gone up to a record $5.29 billion this Thanksgiving, a 2.9% increase over the amount spent last year. 

The unfortunate advocates of Donald Trump are frantically working at damage control after he dined at his club with Kanye West, who has recently been under fire for his avowed anti-Semitism, and a somewhat incongruous fellow-guest:  Nick Fuentes, a notorious white supremacist.  Trump later claimed that Fuentes had been invited by West and that he himself was taken by surprise when West unexpectedly brought Fuentes with him to the dinner.  It seems very unlikely, to put it mildly, that either the security staff at Mar-a-Lago or the Secret Service personnel looking after an ex-President were unaware of Fuentes’ identity, or that they would have failed to inform Trump of the fact.  “This is a fucking nightmare,” said one longtime Trump adviser who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of stoking the former president’s ire at “disloyal” people who criticize him. “If people are looking at DeSantis to run against Trump, here’s another reason why.”  They have another problem to contend with as well:  E. Jean Carroll has filed a suit against Trump for sexual assault, under the Adult Survivors Act, a new law in New York that opened a one-year window for adult victims of such attacks to file claims.  As the case gains momentum, at least a few women who supported Trump in the past are bound to be alienated from him.

The European Parliament designated Russia a state sponsor of terrorism.  The move is largely symbolic, since the European Union does not have a legal framework in place to back it up.  Still, as a mere observation, it is so innocent and so honest that it amounts to a very good thing for a parliament to say. Unfortunately, the U.S. State Department has not followed suit.   Cuba, North Korea, Iran, and Syria are designated as terrorist sponsors, but up to this point Russia has not been added to the list.

Where is COVID in the midst of all of this?  The omicron variant is now a year old, but it is driving COVID case counts higher in many places, forming a prelude to a wave that experts expect to soon wash over the U.S.  As of Tuesday, new COVID cases averaged around 39,300 a day, which is far lower than that of last winter.  However, this figure is a significant undercount because of reduced testing and reporting. About 28,000 people with COVID were hospitalized daily and about 340 died.  Dr. Nicholas Vasquez, a physician in Phoenix, said that his hospital admitted a growing number of chronically ill people and nursing home residents with severe COVID this month.  “It’s been quite a while since we needed to have COVID wards,” he added. “It’s making a clear comeback.”

Today’s statistics as of 9:30 PM – # of cases worldwide: 645,626,817; # of deaths worldwide: 6,635,241; # of cases U.S.:  100,456,053; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,104,743.  The number of COVID-related deaths in this country is still disproportionately high – over 16% of the global total, when we account for only 4% of the global population.  The U.S. ranks 58^th in the list of countries of COVID cases-to-population ratio, but ranks 16^th in the list of countries by COVID mortality rate.

On the Catoctin Trail – Rising incidence of respiratory diseases – Elon Musk and Twitter – Evening statistics

Yesterday was another clear, wintry day and I was on another hike to take advantage of it – this time a considerably easier one than the hike of the preceding day, even though it was longer.  It took place along the Catoctin Trail, from Hamburg Rd. to the Cunningham Manor area, a section with gentle ascents totaling no more than 1100 feet.  It is not a spectacular hike, but it was very lovely under these conditions.  The last of the autumn foliage has fallen, leaving the views though the trees clear and unrestricted; the color of the sky was all the more intensely blue that day, as it generally is when the air is dry and free from the haziness of warmer seasons; the light from the slanting rays of the sun illuminated the vegetation strewing the forest floor with dazzling clarity.  We lunched at the Thurmont Rock Overlook, with its bird’s-eye view of the town of Thurmont across the valley.  Most of us reached that point by 12:30 and all of the hikers completed the hike in the early afternoon, so that even after we partied together for a long while in the parking area close to the bus, we left well before 3:00.  

People have become fairly lackadaisical about wearing masks.  It was somewhat better than usual where I went shopping today, at an Oriental food market.  Those of East Asian origin are more accustomed to wearing facemasks in public; when I visited Beijing in 2000, long before COVID was ever heard of, many people wore them while walking in the street.  But in general, when I go to a store, I tend to be in a minority with regard to mask-wearing.  The effects of this relaxation are beginning to be seen – not so much as COVID is concerned, but influenza instead.  The flu season has come early, with at least 4.4 million cases of flu so far this season, as well as 38,000 hospitalizations and 2,100 deaths.  In the past flu rates have not begun to rise until December or January.  But now, just barely after mid-November, 27 U.S. states have high or very high flu levels.  IN addition, RSV cases are up in record numbers.  The fact that RSV cases were barely detectable for the past two years meant that infants of three years and younger have not been exposed to the virus and thus have not had a chance to acquire immunity. 

All of which is not to say that the COVID viruses have been idle; they account for 3,000 additional hospital admissions on a daily basis. 

Under the regime of Elon Musk, Twitter has restored a number of suspended accounts, including that of Donald Trump.  But as Elon Musk has systematically wreaked havoc in Twitter since his takeover, causing employees to flee in droves and awakening doubts among social media pundits about whether Twitter will be able to survive his management, it no longer has the appeal for Trump that it had formerly.  Strange to say, Trump, who  flooded the Internet with thousands of tweets in the past, claims that he sees “no reason” for returning to Twitter now that it is in the hands of one who, as all the world knows, is continually posing not as a living person but as his own statue erected by public subscription, thus giving an example of the old adage that two of a trade never agree.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 643,324,985; # of deaths worldwide: 6,627,374; # of cases U.S.:  100,250,879; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,102,896.

Big Schloss and Tibbet Knob – A child heroine – Completion of the Silver Line – Turgenev and the war in Ukraine – Campaign donors unenthusiastic about Trump (and who isn’t?) – Our senescent Congress – Evening statistics

I went with the Capital Hiking Club to hike along Mill Mountain to Big Schloss and Tibbet Knob, an area I have not seen for nearly a year.  It was cold along the ridgeline of Mill Mountain, but very clear; and happily, the gusts of the weather forecast never materialized.  The views of the Trout Run Valley to the west and of the Shenandoah Valley to the east had no haze or cloud cover to diminish them, while the wintry temperature (it was at least ten degrees colder than the DC metro area) and our relatively early start meant that we had the viewpoint all to ourselves. 

The hike was somewhat shorter for hikers than usual (5½ miles for the moderate hike and 9 miles for the longer one) but I would say that we compensated for that deficiency in the vertical direction; the moderate hikers alone ascended nearly 2000 feet in elevation gain and the long hikers 1000 feet more.  At all events, I heard no complaints about hikers receiving short measure.  There was a risk in scheduling such a hike at this season.  The drive to the trailhead is well over 1½ hours and the hours of daylight are becoming brief.  But everyone came back to the bus well within the appointed time, and we were able to depart by 3:30.  The members of CHC tend to be younger than the other hiking clubs of which I’m a member, and I was unable to keep pace with a couple of them going up the steepest climbs; but that is as it should be.  One cannot expect to be the swiftest of the lot at 68 years of age.

Of late I have been focusing on those headlines that accentuate the negative (in my defense, I must observe that most of them do), but yesterday I came across one that is more heartening.  Viola Fair went into labor unexpectedly three weeks early at her home in Jennings, MS.  Her daughter, who bears the most appropriate name of Miracle, dialed 911 and then relayed the protocols given by the emergency dispatch operator to her mother so that the latter could ensure a safe delivery.  After the baby emerged, Miracle, seeing that her mother was too weak at this point, picked up her newly-born sister, gently wiped her dry, and rubbed her back to enable the infant to make her first cry.  Miracle is ten years old.

Afterwards the paramedics came and brought the mother and baby to a hospital, where both were given a clean bill of health.  It seems very likely that without Miracle’s intervention, either or both of them could have been seriously impaired.  Miracle was afterwards commended by the St. Louis dispatchers in a ceremony that presented her with a certificate citing the bravery and courage she demonstrated in helping her mother – and, they might have added, for her extraordinary presence of mind.  She herself said that the best part of the experience is that it enabled her to be the first person to see her newborn sister, and also she expressed her desire to be a doctor.  It is of course too early to make predictions about anyone’s future career at this stage, but I earnestly hope that she realizes this ambition of hers.  If she does, she will undoubtedly provide miracles for many others.

The Silver Line has been completed at last!  Actually, the Metro stations and the tracks connecting them have been built over two years ago, but the opening has been delayed on account of testing.  Why such a testing phase should last over two years is something of a mystery (it generally takes place over the span of a few months).  But no matter, it is open now, and at this point Dulles Airport is at long last linked to our city’s public transportation system. 

Turgenev is generally recognized as one of the three giants of 19^th-century Russian literature (the other two of course being Tolstoy and Dostoevsky), but he tends to be praised more in Europe and the U.S. than in Russia itself, possibly because his opinion of his fellow-countrymen is not particularly flattering – as in, for instance, the following passage from Virgin Soil:  “it is a well-known fact, though by no means easy to understand, that Russians are the greatest liars on the face of the earth, and yet there is nothing they respect like truth – nothing attracts them as much.”  I cannot say that respect for truth is very apparent in Russia at this juncture, but Turgenev might have added that in the art of suppressing evidence Russians are unsurpassed.  They exceed even the Chinese in this respect – and that is saying a great deal.

Consider, for instance, the withdrawal from Kherson a bare month after Russia occupied it.  The reasons for the retreat were delivered in a stilted television interview on November 9^th by Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Gen. Sergei Surovikin, Russia’s chief commander in Ukraine.  But the orchestrator of this campaign was notable for his absence in this scene.  Nor has Vladimir Putin made a single comment on the matter since that date.  He has also refrained from speaking at the Group of 20 summit in Indonesia.  Not only did he decide not to attend, but he didn’t even join it by video conference or send a pre-recorded speech.  He seems to be disassociating himself from the war that he originated.  I can only suppose that he is intending to foist the blame incurred by its disappointing results (from Russia’s point of view) upon some unfortunate scapegoat or other among his administrators.

Donald Trump has declared his intention to run as a Presidential candidate in 2024, but the wealthiest donors – the mega-donors as they are called – are not exactly rallying to his cause.  While Trump’s political machine is starting off with a war chest of more than $110 million, federal law prevents him from using most of that money to advance his White House campaign. In addition, the Trump campaign is also now being held responsible for millions of dollars in legal fees that were being paid by the Republican National Committee.  Many of those who had donated to Trump’s campaign in 2016 have expressed wariness of committing to him again.  The reaction of hedge fund manager Ken Griffin, the second-most prolific donor to Republican campaigns during the midterms, appears to be typical.  “I’d like to think that the Republican Party is ready to move on from somebody who has been for this party a three-time loser,” he said at Bloomberg’s New Economy Forum in Singapore, and has expressed interest in backing DeSantis if the latter declares his intention to run.

Nancy Pelosi has announced her intention to retire at the venerable age of 182.  (On second thoughts, being in a calmer mood than I was when I first drafted the preceding sentence, I voluntarily knock 100 years off of that figure.)  Whatever one may think of her career and its effects, she at any rate deserves credit for not retaining her position until overtaken by death, in contrast to several of our other politicians.  How these worthies cling to their offices of power!  Dianne Feinstein, Charles Grassley, Richard Shelby, James Inhofe, and Patrick Leahy are all well over 80 – and that’s only in our Senate.  I have already mentioned in earlier entries that our Congress is the oldest it has been in history.  And in this context it may be mentioned that Joseph Biden turns 80 tomorrow.  If, as many people say he will, he decides to run again in 2024, he will be 82 at beginning of the campaign – and if, by some miracle, he wins, he will be 86 by the end of his second term, unless of course he is felled by cancer like the late Ruth Bader Ginsburg. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 642,831,036; # of deaths worldwide: 6,625,413; # of cases U.S.:  100,162,437; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,102,457.

Hiking in Gettysburg – Pence’s memoir – Trump’s announcement to run in 2024 – Effects of the pandemic on daily social life – Evening statistics

Yesterday I went with the Vigorous Hikers to Gettysburg.  It was a somewhat overcast day, and the forecast of rain in the afternoon caused us to make the hike slightly shorter than our usual amount (still, it came out to about 13½ miles, which is not bad).  It is undeniably a field of monuments:  practically every regiment that participated in the battle put up a memorial statue there.  I was curious to see whether I could use the hike for either Wanderbirds or Capital Hiking, but I’m afraid it’s not feasible.  Gettysburg, unlike Antietam or Manassas, is geared towards the car driver, and any extensive hike there involves a good deal of road-walking.  On a weekday, especially in the off-season, there is not much traffic to contend with; but on any weekend, even in the dead of winter, the amount of cars to dodge would make hiking there a torment.  There are some trails along the outskirts of the battlefield, notably on Big Roundtop, a peak to the south of the battlefield (but the term “peak” is relative – the ascent to the top is barely 250 feet), but for the most part one must trod pavement to see the area. 

Afterwards a few of us went to the cemetery where Union soldiers who had fallen on the battlefield were hastily interred and we lingered at the site where Lincoln delivered his famed Gettysburg address.  From there we passed through the town of Gettysburg itself.  During my first visit there, many years ago, it had appeared shabby and rundown.  I am happy to say that that is no longer the case; it has a thriving, prosperous air, and the main city square of the historic district is well worth seeing in its own right, featuring as it does many buildings replete with both historic and architectural interest, including the home where Lincoln stayed the night before he delivered his oration.

It was a bit of a letdown, returning from the scene of perhaps the most famous speech of our greatest president, to be regaled with news of one of his decidedly lesser successors.

“Now, my mother never bothered about bringing me up.  She just saw to it that I got whacked at decent intervals and was taught the difference between right and wrong; there is some difference, you know, but I’ve forgotten what it is.”

No, the speaker is not Mike Pence in his recent memoir “So Help Me God”; the quotation comes from a story (“Clovis on Parental Responsibilities”) by Saki.  But it would not be out of place in that first-named publication, for Pence’s disclosures are notably disingenuous.  Many of his anecdotes certainly have the ring of truth – such as the one that relates how, on January 1, 2021, he received a virulent tongue-lashing from Donald Trump excoriating the latter’s refusal to prevent Congress from ratifying Biden’s victory.  But the implication that this episode was Pence’s first intimation of how determined Trump was to subvert the election and that in particular he wanted Pence to be the instrument of his doing so – which cannot possibly be the case.  Trump’s tirade, after all, did not emerge from a vacuum.  His conduct during his entire four years of office has provided a consistent pattern of deceit, rage, abuse, and treachery.  But Pence never condemns Trump in so many words and never denounces Trump’s orchestration of the events of January 6^th for what they are:  an act of brazen, unmitigated sedition. 

Such spinelessness on his part is all the more troubling for Pence being a man of a far different caliber than, for example, Steve Bannion or Michael Flynn.  He is not a scheming opportunist and he is not particularly greedy for wealth.  He sincerely believes in his faith and had rigorously adhered to its statutes in his own private life.  During the storming of the Capitol he behaved with admirable courage and decision, to the extent of defying his Secret Service detail and insisting that the process of ratification be completed even in the face of assault and bloodshed.  Yet, although he himself was threatened with mob violence from Trump’s supporters carrying rope and noose and shouting “Hang Mike Pence!”, he still refuses to condemn Trump explicitly; he is much more severe upon Trump’s critics than upon Trump himself.  Fancy an early Christian devising excuses for the excesses of the Roman Emperor Caligula, and you will get some idea of the effect of Pence’s remarks about Trump. Incidentally, with his harsh stream of invective, continual falsehoods, unbridled lusts, and sadistic nature, Trump bears a marked resemblance to that last-named personage, to an extent as to make one whether Trump is channeling the latter’s spirit.

Last night Trump announced his intention to run for Presidential again in 2024, which should come a s a surprise to no one.  The Republican Party has reacted notably less enthusiastically to his candidacy than it did in 2020.  They know very well that the disappointments they endured in the midterm elections – far from being the “red wave” they anticipated, they wound up with only a narrow majority in the House of Representatives and actually lost a seat in the Senate – are in a large measure due to him.  Several Republican governors – DeSantis, Kemp, and Youngkin in particular – have taken pains to distance themselves from him and have proved that they can do very well without his support.  Youngkin, indeed, has clearly looked upon Trump as a liability from the beginning and took vigorous measures to prevent him from interfering in the Virginia gubernatorial contest.  For that matter, even Trump’s own daughter has disassociated herself from the ongoing campaign, publicly announcing her retirement from political life. 

Various people have, like me, been documenting how their daily habits have changed since the advent of the pandemic.  Some are unsurprising:  more people are staying indoors more, traveling less, avoiding physical contact (such as hand-shaking), spending more time watching movies online, wearing face masks in public places, etc.  But there are disquieting reactions as well:  wearing less makeup, dressing less fashionably (one woman said that she now no longer wears a bra unless she “absolutely has to”), and in general, taking less care about one’s appearance; narrowing down of social circles; increased feelings of claustrophobia when being among crowds.  Regular attendance of religious services declined severely during the early months of the pandemic – understandingly, when large gatherings of people in enclosed areas was explicitly forbidden.  They are now gradually recovering, but most churches average above 50% of their pre-pandemic attendance but below 90%. Just over a quarter of churches (26%) say that their attendance is more than 50% but less than 70%, while 31% report a congregation of 70% to less than 90% what it was prior to the pandemic.  Clearly it will take some time to repair all of the social disruption that the pandemic has caused – may continue to cause, indeed, if we see another upsurge this coming winter.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 641,352,690; # of deaths worldwide: 6,619,287; # of cases U.S.:  100,013,831; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,100, 979.

The hike in Patapsco – Reduction in COVID deaths – Possible increase in penalties for dealers of fentanyl – Trump and DeSantis – A festivity at Mar-a-Lago – Evening statistics

Another pause in the narrative, on account of curious sequence of events that occurred over the past couple of days.

I was supposed to lead a hike for the Wanderbirds today, and in preparation for it I scouted the route with my co-leader yesterday, which was the only day that he was available.  It was a most discouraging exploration.  Everything that could conceivably go wrong, did.  The hike route was in Patapsco State Park, and when we arrived there we discovered that numerous closures had taken place.  The park is a strange one in many ways.  It is divided into several discrete areas, some of which are not even contiguous.  However, two of these areas, the Avalon/Orange Grove area along the south bank of the river and the Hilton area along the north bank, are connected by means of a bridge.  The Hilton area contains a trail called the Grist Mill Trail that runs along the shoreline of the river through the area and acts as the spine, so to speak, of the trails that span it; many trails in the area use a junction with this trail as their terminus, and it is difficult to organize a hike of significant length without using this trail to some extent.  Judge, then, of our dismay when we discovered that the trail had been closed for an indefinite period.  Moreover, the parking area that we have sometimes used there was closed likewise.  There is another parking area about a quarter of mile from it, but it is small and crowded, and in any case it would be impossible for a bus to maneuver into it.

It was clear that the hike in its original form would have to be rerouted.  In previous iterations we would park close to the bridge, walk across to hike in the Hilton area, cross the bridge again, and hike in the Avalon area.  Since it was no longer feasible to access the Hilton area at all, we were forced to restrict our scouting to the Avalon area, which has the most extensive parking.

But even here we ran into difficulties.  The park has several trails are blazed, but it likewise contains trails with no blazes (or even names) at all.  The blazed trails have numerous junctions with the unblazed ones, and at several of these the blazes are not particularly well-placed for the purpose of adhering to the correct, named trail.  On one of trails we explored, called Rockburn Branch, we soon found ourselves diverted onto a trail with no blazes that led to a small stream.  I had no recollection of this detail from previous visits, but it had been several years since I had been to the park and of course I could not rely on my memory at so distant a date – so we pressed on, despite my misgivings.  We found our way back eventually, but it was a time-consuming detour.  There were similar opportunities for going astray at other junctions and the park maps were not especially illuminating – all in all, we must have covered about four miles in detours.  Then, too, we got a late start because we spent part of the morning investigating the state of the parking at the Hilton area, and we completed our wanderings just a few minutes before the park closed for the day.

At this point I was tempted to cancel the hike altogether.  Such a course is somewhat more feasible for the Wanderbirds than it is for Capital Hiking, because the hike fees used to pay for the bus are not collected in advance.  But about thirty people had already signed up for it, and canceling the hike, especially at such short notice, would have been a drastic measure, one that would have done no good for the club’s reputation.

So I spent yesterday night tabulating the information we obtained from the scouting to devise a hike to use for today.  Organizing a two-tier hike, a longer and a shorter one, would be impossible at this stage.  The hike would have to a compromise between the two, sufficiently long to satisfy those expecting to go 10-13 miles and yet not too taxing for those who normally hike 7-9 miles.  Eventually I came up with a route that seemed to meet these conditions. 

I started leading the hike this morning with considerable unease. To begin with, there were many potential wrong turns I could take and thereby mislead others in the process.  At least on this occasion I knew which ones to look out for.  Then again, I had had no time to verify whether the hike, which I projected to be about 9 miles, was too long or too short.  If it was too long, some of the attendees might not be able to complete it, and if it was too short, some of the attendees might resent spending a day being driven to a hike not sufficiently challenging to interest them.

All of these worries turned out to be needless.  The hike was indeed longer than my original estimate (about 10½ miles in all) but everyone completed it well within the appointed time.  We had almost ideal weather:  brisk, certainly (in the mid-40s) but sunny and breezy and perfectly dry.  The hikers all expressed enjoyment – and, in some cases, delight – from this introduction to the river valley, which many of them had never seen before.  I had hoped that the timing of the hike would enable us to arrive at the park’s waterfall, which is its most prominent feature, at the right time for lunch.  This hope was realized; several of us arrived there between 11:30 and 12:00.  The waterfall is not large, but its streaming waters make a vivid contrast with the black rock behind the falls as they spill into a small shallow pellucid pond at its base.  There were numerous large and fairly flat rocks to sit upon, and we saw the play of the sunlight on the pond and we heard the continual soft plashing of the water in the background as we consumed our meal.

 After the hike, as usual, we snacked and drank soft drinks and beer.  Many members had contributed various chips and baked goods, and conversation as we grouped about the bus and waited for all members to filter in became extremely lively and animated.  It was, in fact, the closest approximation I have seen to the sort of aftermath of club hikes that occurred before the pandemic began.  So it might be said (perhaps somewhat hyperbolically) that I have plucked victory from the jaws of defeat.  In any case, I was well-satisfied with the outcome.

During all of this I have not been following the headlines to any great extent; and I’m not sure, from glancing at them this evening, that they are worth much attention.

There is some encouraging news.  COVID deaths have decreased by almost 90% since February, according to the WHO.  Nine months ago, about 75,000 died from COVID on a weekly basis; this week’s death toll was 9,400.  If we can maintain this diminished rate over the winter season, the pandemic be fairly said to be at an end.

The upsurge in fentanyl use, and in fentanyl overdosing in particular, has prompted one city to propose more stringent legislation against its dealers.  Currently the maximum sentence in California law for anyone who sells fentanyl is three years.  Todd Gloria, the mayor of San Diego, announced plans to pursue state legislation to enhance sentences when the dealing of fentanyl results in death.  The proposed change in legislation would charge those who sell fentanyl would be charged with murder when such deals result in death.  It seems an eminently sensible proposal.  The amount of overdoses is growing dramatically. The number of fentanyl overdose deaths in San Diego was 825 between January and June of this year.  The death count was 84 five years ago. 

Among a certain political party, the wolves are beginning to devour each other – or rather, one wolf is snarling and baring its teeth, while the other refuses to play.  Donald Trump has in the past couple of weeks spoken about Ron DeSantis with his usual freedom and candor, calling him “DeSanctimonious,” accusing him of disloyalty (which is, of course, the ultimate crime in Trump’s eyes), and denouncing him for not displaying the usual response of gratitude for unkindness that Trump has come to expect from his followers.  For all of the differences between them, DeSantis is following the same strategy that Biden pursued during the 2020 election:  allowing Trump to condemn himself out of his own mouth, while remaining obstinately unresponsive to Trump’s provocations.  It does indeed appear to be a strategy that is virtually foolproof, and why some of Trump’s other competitors have not used it is something of a mystery.

In the meantime Trump’s younger daughter Tiffany has tied the knot with Michael Boulos, a Lebanese businessman, at the far-famed family residence in Mar-a-Lago.  Originally the wedding was set to be on a lavish scale, with 500 guests invited.  The damage caused to Florida neighborhoods by Hurricane Nicole forced them to scale back and reduce the guest list to a mere 250.  Well, one can’t have everything.

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 640,345,263; # of deaths worldwide: 6,615,396; # of cases U.S.:  99,898,467; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,100,127.

Many meetings – A winery hike – The defeat of the “born alive” measure – Grinding down of Afghan women – Increase of vaccinations and boosters – The zero-tolerance policy in China – Evening statistics

“Is it not a pleasure to greet guests from afar?” as Confucius observed in his Analects.  And the distance can be in time as well as space, especially as the events of the pandemic have cut across so many types of social interaction.  Today I went with LM and others on a winery hike, and the members of the group included PF, whom I have not seen for months.  She and her husband have moved to the Front Royal area, and in addition the opportunities for meeting on group hiking events have been limited. And while our group was hiking in Sky Meadows, I ran across SM, who, among other things, was responsible for my joining Wanderbirds in the first place.  We were co-workers on a project many years ago (in 1999, in fact) and when we discovered our mutual interest in hiking she directed my attention to the club, which I had not known about before. It was very gratifying to see her again; I do not believe that we have had an opportunity to meet since the beginning of the pandemic. 

The hike went up the Piedmont Overlook, which we normally do not cover during our standard Wanderbirds and Capital Hiking Club hikes, and it offered somewhat clearer views that those of the Paris overlook, which is becoming overgrown.  Afterwards we went to the Blue Valley winery, where we ate and drank together for nearly two hours.  We sighted a Baltimore oriole, the first that I have seen in many a long year.  They were fairly common in the neighborhood where I grew up until a certain time – some time in the late 1960s – when they suddenly became much rarer.  I am not sure why this should be the case; they are not endangered, as far as I know.

In a victory for women’s rights (not to mention safety), the “born alive” measure proposed in Montana has been formally defeated.  The measure, which was deceptively innocuous in its wording, was in fact a thinly-disguised device for throwing obstacles in the way of medical practitioners to administer abortions.  The voters of Montana were sufficiently astute to see through the intent of this measure, and in effect told the state administrators to mind their own business in such matters.

In a crushing defeat for women’s rights, the government of Afghanistan has banned women from attending gyms and visiting public parks.  At this point Afghan girls are prevented from attending middle school and high school, while all Afghan women are restricted from most fields of employment and are required to wear clothing from head to foot whenever they appear in public.

“Commemorate Kristallnacht – treat yourself to more soft cheese and crispy chicken. Now at KFCheese!”  Such was the message that KFC sent out to amazed Germans yesterday, the 84th anniversary of the Night of Broken Glass in which Nazis led gangs in the torching, vandalizing, and ransacking of Jewish shops, businesses, and synagogues across Germany.  It would appear that the message was computer-generated, automatically attaching itself any time that a significant anniversary is mentioned in the headlines.  Nonetheless, social media experts in Germany said that they were astounded that the company had no checking mechanism to pick up on the blunder.  The majority of Germans look upon the Hitler era as a profound embarrassment and disgrace (or proclaim that they do, at any rate), but perhaps even the most right-wing among them would regard eating Kentucky Fried Chicken with cheese as a very odd way of celebrating the Nazi regime. 

More than 5.6 million COVID vaccine and booster shots were administered in the past week, the highest seven-day total in the U.S. since January.  Most of them were bivalent boosters, designed to combat the most virulent Omicron strains.  COVID cases and hospitalizations have come down over the past several months, which has led the White House to stress not allowing it to dictate daily life, even while still regarding it as a serious threat.  “After 20 months of hard work, the pandemic no longer controls our lives. It’s still a concern, but it no longer controls our lives,” Biden said in a news conference yesterday.

China, by way of contrast, has been more cautious, to put it mildly.  Places in which even only a few cases have materialized are abruptly locked down, sometimes for very long periods.  In the city of Ruili, which is close to the Myanmar border, residents spent a total of 119 days barred from leaving their homes during the period from March, 2021 to April, 2022.  Mandatory testing has been so frequent that infants have been swabbed six dozen times by their first birthdays.  Officials have the authority at any given time to instruct people not to leave specific districts, compounds, or residences. They are empowered to lock compound and building doors, and to construct gates or walls around residences with little or no notice. Officials may also require people to transfer to a quarantine facility.  Travel – even internal travel – has been greatly hampered.  Beijing in particular is difficult to enter, even for those who have negative test results.  Visitors from outside the country are subject to quarantine for ten days.  The U.S. Department of State advises American visitors to carry a two-week supply of water, food, and medication, because whenever an area becomes locked down, groceries, deliveries, and public transportation may be unavailable.  Even so, COVID has been rising slightly in the country. China reported 10,729 new infections on Nov. 10, compared with 9,005 a day earlier.  China counts symptomatic and asymptomatic cases separately; 1,209 cases on Nov. 10 were symptomatic and 9,520 were asymptomatic, while 1,185 cases were symptomatic and 7,820 asymptomatic on Nov. 9. 

Today’s statistics as of 10:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 639,313,342; # of deaths worldwide: 6,611,644; # of cases U.S.: 99,859,908; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,099,856.

Familiarity, even with a pandemic, breeds contempt – Possibility of acceleration of lawsuits against Trump – Abortion and the mid-term elections – The relative sedateness of the midterm elections – Evening statistics

It will be observed that the intervals between journal entries are becoming longer.  Part of the reason is the number of hikes I’ve been leading over the past several months.  It is time-consuming to prepare for them (including the scouting for them that is involved) and on the days of the hikes themselves I often feel too tired to write after the hikes are completed and I have driven back home.  But there is also psychological fatigue to reckon with as well.  When I first began the idea of striving against the ravages of a steadily increasing epidemic was at any rate a source of stimulation.  But when a plague or a war drags on for months and years, without any noticeable change from one day to the next, a reaction of indifference, or at any rate a nullification of the intensity of one’s earlier emotional response, can set in.  In Aldous Huxley’s “After Many a Summer Dies the Swan,” which is set in 1939, as the state of the world was worsening on a daily basis, the reaction of one character to a news headline announcing yet another international misfortune must have been typical of many living through that dismal time:  “’Franco claims gains in Catalonia,’ Jeremy read, and turned away.  The frightfulness of the world had reached a point at which it had become for him merely boring.” In the early stages, when we were devising methods to combat the pandemic both through technological advances and the institution of various social measures, was in an odd way inspiriting; our current state of passively waiting for it to become a pandemic no longer is – not to put too fine a point on it – dull. 

Something similar must be said about the ongoing saga of the momentum of the various cases levied against Donald Trump is supposedly attaining.  The Democrats have performed better than expected during the midterm elections and Trump will not be receiving the protection he hoped to receive from an overwhelmingly Republican Congress, so perhaps prosecutors will feel more emboldened to bring him to court – but what a time they’ve taken about it!  After all, many of the rioters who attacked the Capitol have been charged and are serving time by now.  Several of them have been formally convicted of sedition.  It is high time that the principal person concerned in setting up the riot be brought to book as well. 

Speaking of midterm elections – abortion played a significant role in them.  Five states voted on changes to abortion rules.  Vermont, California, and Michigan all voted in favor of including the right to reproductive freedom in the state constitution.  In Kentucky, the question was the opposite: whether or not to specifically exclude the right to abortion in the state constitution. This measure was rejected by a narrow margin.  In Montana the issue is somewhat more convoluted.  Voters were not asked about abortion directly. Instead they were asked to decide on a so-called “born alive” measure that would guarantee any newborn infant, even those born as a result of abortion, the right to medical care that will preserve life and would criminalize health care providers who do not make every effort to save such an infant’s life – a measure that would obviously discourage providers from attempting abortions.  As of this writing, the measure appears on the verge of being defeated.  The majority of Americans, it is clear, do not wish the government to meddle in such matters; and it is to be hoped that the Republicans will get the message and stop adhering to a policy that is clearly untenable in the long run.

On the whole, midterm elections have gone more smoothly than I would have predicted.  Candidates on both sides have conceded when it became apparent that they failed to obtain a superior number of voters to that of their rivals.  There were no large-scale displays of violence and – so far at least – no one is initiating lawsuits claiming that an election was “stolen” from him.  So perhaps my fears about the damage that Trump has inflicted on our electoral process have been gratifyingly wrong; the electoral contests of 2022 have been, to put it mildly, much more decorous than those of 2020.

Today’s statistics as of 10:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 638,843,596; # of deaths worldwide: 6,609,952; # of cases U.S.: 99,809,767; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,099,494.

This past Halloween – The mountain forests in autumn – Trump signals his intentions of running again – Bolsonaro imitates Trump, his mentor – Evening statistics

We continue to have comfortable weather, but it rained a bit on the evening of Halloween.  The number of children going from house to house for trick-or-treating was probably lower than usual on that account.  I doubt if more than twenty knocked on my door during the course of the evening.  I noticed that virtually all of them were accompanied by adults. Such a precaution would not be thought necessary when I was growing up, but they are now, sadly. 

In the mountains the foliage is getting to be past its “peak,” i.e., the time when the greatest number of leaves have changed color without having yet fallen.  To my mind this current stage is equally lovely, if not more so; as the leaves fall, the sunlight brightens and reinforces the colors of the leaves still remaining with even greater intensity, almost to the point of glowing.  It is delightful, also, to hear the sound of the fallen leaves crunching underfoot; although, it must be admitted, these fallen leaves can be a source of risk:  when they cover up the trail, it is not always easy to find one’s way, and they hide the rocks or tree roots that can cause a walker to trip.  I have had many opportunities to observe the progress of autumn in the forests, for during this week alone I hiked Sunday, Tuesday, and today, and I will be hiking this coming Friday, Saturday, and Sunday as well.  The combination of the temperate weather and the continually changing phases of the foliage is too good to resist.

Recently ex-President Trump delivered a speech to a group of his supporters in Texas in which he gave tolerably broad hints that he intends to run again in 2024.  “In order to make our country successful, safe and glorious again,” he said, “I will probably have to do it again.”  It requires no gift of prophecy to foretell that the word “probably” will soon be omitted for future such pronouncements.  Is it by design or simply coincidence that the name of the place in which he made this speech is Robstown?  For he is undeniably the Prince of Robbers.

Jair Bolsonaro has been imitating Trump in his own amateur fashion.  He was defeated in the recent Brazilian presidential election by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva but has refused to concede formally.  He has wavered since the results were announced, meeting with seven of the country’s Supreme Court judges and indicating that he has indeed lost the election, but never saying so outright.  Shortly after the election results were tallied, several of his supporters began to blockade roads and demand a military uprising, bringing traffic chaos to many cities such Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo.  The inhabitants of Brasilia will do well to place guards around its National Congress Building over the next several weeks, lest it suffer the fate of our own Capitol.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 636,202,875; # of deaths worldwide: 6,596,765; # of cases U.S.: 99,438,740; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,096,153.