Hiking in Washington on MLK Day – Hiking in Manassas Battlefield Park – Indications that Putin is in difficulties – Decreasing rate of COVID mortality – Evening statistics
Yesterday RS and I celebrated Martin Luther King Day in our usual fashion: visiting the monument, listening to a portion of the remarks delivered there to commemorate the man for whom this holiday was created, and then walking with others about the city for 20 miles or so (it actually came out to 24 miles on this particular occasion) in his honor. It was a splendid day and a splendid route, which, in addition to visiting many familiar sites, took us to some that we had not seen before: the east bank of the Anacostia River, Union Market, various paths in the Dumbarton Oaks Park. There is so much to see in this city that it seems that a lifetime devoted to exploring it could not exhaust all that it has to offer.
Today I went with the Vigorous Hikers on another hike with historical aspects, one in Manassas Battlefield. Normally when I go there I use the First and Second Manassas Battle loops, but this one took us to other regions of the park that are less well-known: Brawner Farm, Stuart’s Hill, Sudley Church. This visit to the park was particularly interesting because DG, our hike leader, is a descendent of one of the thousands of soldiers who participated in the Battle of Second Manassas (and who participated in many other Civil War battles as well). He has traced his ancestor’s movements, some of which we went over today. Presumably DG’s ancestor did not have to contend with the extremely muddy conditions we encountered today as a result of a light but steady rain during the morning; on the other hand, both battles took place in mid-summer, during which the paths may have been drier but must have been excruciating on account of the intense heat, the debilitating effects of which were almost certainly aggravated by the amount of baggage each soldier was expected to carry on his back.
Numerous military experts claim to see “desperation” in Putin’s naming of a new military leader after a succession of embarrassing defeats in its war with Ukraine. From a former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine William Taylor: “My sense is that Putin is flailing because he’s not getting what he wants.” From John Herbst, another former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine now with the Atlantic Council: “The incompetence of the Russian military has now been thoroughly demonstrated.” From Brigadier General Pat Ryder, the Pentagon’s top spokesman: Gerasimov’s promotion reflects “some of the systemic challenges that the Russian military has faced since the beginning of this invasion.” From Richard Dannatt, the United Kingdom’s former chief of the general staff: the decision to replace Surovikin with Gerasimov, just three months after the former took charge, can be seen as a “sign of desperation.” And so on.
I would dismiss such claims as wishful thinking, especially in view of the fact that the Russian assault shows no signs of lessening, if it were not for an incident that suggests that the Russian military is indeed undergoing difficulties. Andrei Medvedev, who commanded a squad of the infamous Wagner paramilitary forces in eastern Ukraine, today escaped to Norway to claim asylum, climbing through barbed-wire fences, evading border patrol dogs, running away from guards’ bullets, and running through a forest and over an icy lake in order to cross the border. Once he arrived, he immediately asked to be taken to the police. The Wagner group consists largely of ex-convicts, whom Medvedev claims – only too believably – were used as cannon fodder. The fact that he prefers to be imprisoned in Norway for an indefinite period to enjoying the privileges given to a commander in the Russian army suggests that there may be some truth in the aforementioned experts’ assertions.
More than 267,000 people died of COVID in 2022, according to preliminary data from Johns Hopkins University, compared with more than 350,000 COVID deaths in 2020 and more than 475,000 COVID deaths in 2021. This reduction, however, has not affected its status as the third leading cause of death for the year, as it was for 2020 and in 2021. About 7,000 COVID deaths have already been reported in 2023. If this amount of COVID deaths remains consistent throughout the year, the number of deaths would still be smaller than that of previous years. But it seems probable that the increase of COVID deaths per month will diminish as the weather gets warmer again. We may even emerge this year with fewer than 100,000 deaths from the disease. How horrifying this figure would have seemed to most people during the early months of the pandemic and, if it indeed becomes the statistic for the full year of 2023, what welcome news it would be now!
Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 671,872,961; # of deaths worldwide: 6,733,384; # of cases U.S.: 103,614,411; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,125,895.