Morning statistics – Pence at U.S. Air Force Academy – Nick Cordero – Potential under-reporting of the virus – Plans for re-opening in Texas – The fragile economy of New Jersey beaches – Potential for increase of tele-commuting continuing after lifting of restrictions – Social distancing somewhat more carefully observed – A beautiful spring season – A strange accident – Trump vs. the state governors – Tony Spell as schnorrer – Possibility of customers forced to rely totally on deliveries to obtain groceries – Kenya – Evening statistics
Today’s statistics as of 8:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 2,349,516; # of deaths worldwide: 161,251; # of cases U.S.: 738,923; # of deaths U.S.: 39,015. Spain’s number of cases is nearly 200,000 and its number of deaths is over 20,000 – quite significant for a country whose population is a little under 47,000,000. Nonetheless it has reported that it has had the fewest number of new virus-related deaths this past day for over a month. In Italy the lockdown will be lifted on May 3rd. But traveling to the country will not be feasible for at least a couple of months after that. Since a significant amount of Italy’s economy depends on tourism, the country will have a difficulty recovery period. The United Kingdom also has a high death rate; at 13.5%, it is the highest in Europe, excluding the microstates. Turkey’s number of cases now exceeds Iran’s – assuming, of course, that Iran’s data can be trusted. Officially, at any rate, Turkey now has the highest number of cases in the Mideast.
Vice President Pence has given a commencement address to the cadets of the U. S. Air Force Academy. The members of the audience were placed eight feet from one another and they all wore face masks. Normally the ceremony is attended by 46,000 people, but on this occasion the amount of distance that the audience members had to maintain from each other meant that none of the cadets’ relatives could attend in order to conserve space in Falcon Stadium.
My attitude towards Pence differs somewhat from my attitude towards Trump. I do not care for his political stances and he is to some extent tainted by his association with the current administration, but the man himself certainly does not arouse the visceral reaction that Trump inspires. He has played his role with some skill. Trump has publicly quarreled with nearly every one of his Cabinet members and has purged numerous men and women from their positions. Yet somehow Pence has managed to avoid the limelight amidst this perpetual Sturm und Drang for more than three years, continually contriving to keep at a distance from Trump’s embarrassing displays of ignorance and ill temper. It is even possible that Trump has a friendly feeling towards him, to the extent that he is capable of liking anyone other than himself. What arts has Pence employed to placate a man who lashes out at his associates with the unpredictability of a black mamba and who claws and spits at anyone who dares to criticize him like a catamount? Mere sycophancy is not a sufficient explanation; plenty of people who have assiduously flattered Trump have nonetheless been toppled from their positions in a matter of months. If I were seeking out a career as a lion-tamer in a circus, I would unhesitatingly go to Mike Pence to take lessons from him.
Nick Cordero, a Broadway star, has had his right leg amputated as a result of complications from the virus. This is the first time I’ve heard of the virus having such an outcome. He was originally diagnosed with pneumonia, a diagnosis that was corrected only belatedly. By that time clots were forming in the leg. Putting him on blood thinners to control the clots caused internal bleeding, so the physicians had to stop using the blood thinners and remove the leg. This instance of the disease is particularly troubling because Cordero does not fit the usual profile of patients whose outcomes have turned out badly. He is not elderly, being only 41 years old; he is not overweight, being quite lanky and lean in build, without an ounce of superfluous fat; and he was, until the virus struck him, a man in excellent physical condition.
A study in the Bay Area of California suggests that the number of cases may be under-reported and may be as high as 85 times the amount currently supplied by statistics. This news actually is somewhat encouraging; if the study‘s conclusions are correct, the mortality rate is much lower than the current statistics indicate. And if less than 1 in 80 cases have discernible symptoms, the odds of succumbing to the virus after it is contracted are considerably reduced. The study is far from conclusive and it does not explain, for instance, why the rate of contagion appears to be so much greater in some areas more than others. To paraphrase Oscar Wilde’s Lady Bracknell slightly, “I do not know whether there is anything peculiarly exciting in the air of New York City, but the number of infections that go on seems to me considerably above the proper average that statistics have laid down for our guidance.”
Governor Abbott of Texas has appointed a team of medical and economic experts called the “Strike Force to Open Texas.” Despite the name, the plan is actually rather cautious. No businesses will open before April 27th, and the restrictions will be lifted in stages. Of course there are many critics, but just about any plan to reopen the businesses of any state would draw the same reaction. There is considerable pressure to try to revitalize the state’s economy, which already has been greatly affected by the reduction in oil prices.
The effects of the virus threaten to damage the economy of the Jersey Shore. Many of the people who own or are renting second homes for the summer do not know when the beaches and the local businesses will be open again. I have friends living in the Jersey Shore and I have visited the area in all seasons, so I have seen for myself the precarious state of its economy. During the winter half of the businesses are closed. They begin to reopen in April but it is only after Memorial Day that the full complement of stores and restaurants are operating. Then after Labor Day the businesses begin to shut down again, and by November the economy of the area begins to hibernate again. The loss of an entire beach season, or even of a significant portion of one, will be a serious blow to this scheme of finance. My own projected visit to my friends at the beginning of May has had to be canceled; it is uncertain when Governor Murphy will lift the stay-at-home order for the state, and in any case the one for Virginia remains in effect until June 10th.
Air quality has greatly improved as a result of the reduction of traffic on the roads. It is possible that more and more businesses will encourage their employees to work from home whenever feasible, even after the restrictions are lifted. I have seen an example for myself when I was working at Northrop Grumman. For a long time tele-commuting, although theoretically available to employees on any given day, was in practice difficult for an employee to obtain from his or her supervisor. But then came the winter of 2010/11, which had a record amount of snowfall (56 inches in the DC area). The management thereupon realized that it was preferable for employees to work from home until the roads were adequately cleared – a process that always takes a long time in the DC metro area, its authorities laboring under the delusion that the city enjoys a Southern climate – and tele-commuting was positively encouraged. After the snowfalls ceased and winter changed to spring, the management continued their policy of allowing employees to tele-commute on a less draconian basis. I actually did not tele-commute much myself, since the nature of my work was such that it was easier to perform when I met with co-workers face to face, but whenever I felt the need to do so, permission to get it was much easier to obtain after that harsh winter than it was before.
I did not wish to drive anywhere today, so I went on a ten-mile loop on local trails and sidewalks. There were fewer people than I expected, especially since today is a Sunday. People have become a good deal more observant about the injunctions concerning social distancing. Groups of two or more would get into single file when approached from the opposite direction; dog owners reined in their pets and on occasion stepped aside altogether; bike riders were not riding in tandem. All of which was a very agreeable surprise.
It continues to be one of the loveliest springs I can remember. We have had a number of cool, wet days, which has prolonged the flowers’ period of bloom, and we are now moving into the time of year when the azaleas are coming out, blazing with color. Washington does not have much in the way of heavy industry in proximity and air pollution has never been an issue to the extent of, say, Los Angeles or Cleveland. Still, the air is notably clearer. We will soon be approaching the period when the trillium are in full bloom, and then I do not believe that many people will pay much attention to the ATC’s pleas to stay off the Appalachian Trail: the segment in the Linden area contains one of the greatest concentrations of trillium in the United States, and hikers are well-aware of the fact.
The former mayor of Auburn, CA, who stepped down after criticizing Trump harshly (calling him a racist and comparing his followers to KKK members), has died in an airplane crash. It was a private plane, of which he was the pilot. It sounds like one of those cliché-ridden movies about a master scheme devised by a rich tycoon in which ordinary people are assassinated for getting in the way of its fruition – but surely that can’t be the case here. So far, at least, no one has gone so far as to accuse Trump of murder. I daresay that will come soon.
Trump is being accused by some of the governors for being reckless and unhinged for encouraging protestors to agitate against the various states’ stay-at-home laws. Governor Inslee of the state of Washington has publicly told reporters that Trump is inciting insubordination and illegal activity. It is difficult to disagree with him. Instead of cooperating with the state governors and presenting a united front to combat the ravages of the virus, Trump is subverting the efforts of many governors to prohibit the habits that will cause the virus to spread even more. If that doesn’t describe the man, he is indescribable.
Pastor Tony Spell may not be very familiar with Yiddish, but he is the living embodiment of chutzpah. Not content with defying the state’s stay-at-home order and organizing services with large numbers of people in attendance, he is asking that his followers donate their stimulus checks to the church. Need I say that not a single one of his followers will raise a voice in protest at this unabashed display of greed? It is difficult to feel sorry for them when they allow their pockets to be picked so readily.
There is talk now of banning customers from entering grocery stores and having them resort to curbside pickup and home delivery instead. Indeed, I have been seeing many more delivery robots on the sidewalks than I have in the past, when I encountered them solely on the George Mason University campus. It is understandable; several workers in grocery stores have contracted the virus, sometimes fatally. But grocery stores operate on very narrow profit margins, and this additional expense will send many of them out of business altogether.
Kenya has closed its borders. Anyone in the country who has arrived from another country and has tested positive for the virus is placed in a quarantine center for 14 days. The descriptions of the quarantine centers make them sound like prisons. The toilets are filthy and the water from the taps is unreliable, because many of the inmates touch the taps with their hands. If any occupant displays symptoms after the 14-day period of quarantine expires, he or she is forced to remain there for another 14 days. As with the prisons of European nations in previous centuries, people have to pay for residing in them. Most of the inmates are quite poor already, and this additional expense might easily propel some of them into ruin and destitution.
Today’s statistics as of 10:30 PM — # of cases worldwide: 2,406,905; # of deaths worldwide: 165,059; # of cases U.S.: 763,836; # of deaths U.S.: 40,555.