The Appalachian Trail in Pennsylvania – Plans to complete the AT in the state – Good news of Governor DeWines – Bad news from Sturgis, SD – Issues with metrics – Evening statistics
I was on the Appalachian Trail in Pennsylvania again today, from Rte. 501 to Rte. 183 and back: 9¼ miles each way or 18½ miles in all. Less than 2000 feet of elevation gain total, but it felt like more because it was very rocky. One section that goes on for a quarter-mile was nothing but rocks; which, however, offered fewer difficulties than the rocky patches closer to Swatara Gap: their surfaces were flatter and only a few of them were loose. Also, the temperatures were pleasant (it never rose about 80 degrees on the ridgeline) and the gnats were much less troublesome. There were a few overlooks giving views of the valley to the south (which does not appear to have a name). It was a good deal less frustrating than the hike I did earlier between Rte. 501 and Swatara Gap; the trail is better maintained in this area and there was no undergrowth on any portion of the footpath. Towards the end (i.e., close to Rte. 183) I came across a marker commemorating Fort Dietrich Snyder, a lookout post in the earlier days of settlement when there was constant tension between the newcomers and the Native Americans.
At this point I have 82 miles to go if I am to complete the entire AT through Pennsylvania. I have planned a short trip from August 17th to 20th that will, if all goes well, enable me to complete about half of that. Forty miles does not sound like much to hike in the space of four days, but it must be taken into account that all of the hiking that I can do at this stage consists of there-and-backs; there is no possibility of shuttling with anyone or of obtaining transportation after reaching the end of a segment. The only way I can get back to my car after I complete a segment is to do the original hike in reverse. That means that all of the AT in Pennsylvania from Boiling Springs to anywhere in the north that I’ve completed so far I have had to do twice over The projected trip will thus involve an average of 20 miles a day, or 80 miles total. But I will be staying in an area close to the various trailheads, and I’m hoping that the greater amount of daylight hours at my disposal on account of the reduced amount of driving will make for more relaxed hikes.
In a reassuring development, the results of Governor DeWines’ COVID test apparently produced a false positive. He has been re-tested and the results are negative. He still is taking precautions, although in light of the second test results he probably will not undergo a complete quarantine.
In a development that is not in the least reassuring, a quarter of a million motorcyclists from all over the nation on converging on Sturgis, South Dakota, with the full blessing of Kristi Noem, the state’s governor, for the annual national motorcycle rally. Those American bikers, you never can keep them down. Many are not wearing masks, which, for that matter, are not required for the event. One couple who claims that they will take appropriate precautions observed, “It looked like South Dakota was plateauing mostly. It will be interesting to see what it looks like in two weeks.” Interesting – well, that is one way to describe it, I suppose. The residents of Sturgis are not particularly enthusiastic about this notable experiment. Daniel Ainslie, the City Manager, shares their concerns but says that he is powerless to intervene. “We can’t block off the entrances to our community, and so on a daily basis we’re getting hundreds of thousands of people saying, ‘It doesn’t matter what happens, we’re coming to your town.'” It sounds like a description of a military invasion.
I’ve been listing metrics at the end of each entry; but, as I’ve frequently observed, caution has to be used about these figures. EB has sent me an article stating that the number of deaths in excess of the average for previous years – a more reliable metric – is about 37% greater than the number of deaths listed as being attributable to COVID-19. Sometimes the virus is not diagnosed in time; sometimes, also, it precipitates other conditions that can have fatal results (heart attacks, diabetes, etc.).
Similarly (although the article does not go into this), the number of people infected with the virus is probably greater than the official estimate, possibly much greater. Many people may have the virus without realizing it. Quite a number of people have not been tested, and even for those who have, it is not possible to get tested on a daily basis. I took a test myself on July 13th as part of the preparation for traveling to New York (which got canceled later, unfortunately) and it came out negative, but that is no guarantee that I am free from it now. I fret about this particularly whenever I visit my mother’s assisted-living facility. That is one reason that my visits have been relatively short and infrequent.
With these caveats, here are today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 19,794,206; # of deaths worldwide: 728,786; # of cases U.S.: 5,149,663; # of deaths U.S.: 165,068. We have had just under 1,000 deaths today and well under 60,000 new cases, which is an improvement. Speaking of unreliable metrics – Brazil’s official case count now exceeds 3,000,000 and its death toll has surpassed 100,000; but the actual figures in both instances are probably much higher.