Author: betula54

The final retrospective

“And now to sum up,” as Virginia Woolf has one of her characters in The Waves say (not recommended reading, incidentally – it is quite a dreary novel).  The Public Health Emergency that was declared over three years ago when COVID first burst onto this country officially ends at midnight.  In practical terms the financial burden on the government will lessen:  it will no longer supply COVID tests gratis, and Americans will have to coordinate with insurance companies to obtain vaccines.  The burden on our health care system has been gradually diminishing, as hospitalizations become less frequent and treatment has become more effective.  The story of COVID is far from being concluded, but the story of COVID as a pandemic is.

What have been the effects of COVID since the pandemic first began?

The first one is fairly obvious:  over one million Americans dead from the disease, a much greater amount than what had been initially predicted when the pandemic began and, it may be said in passing, representing about 17% of out of the total number of COVID-related deaths around the globe, even though we represent a bare 4% of the world’s population.  The United States ranks 58^th among the nations in frequency of COVID infections among its population, but 15^th in mortality rate – not exactly a record to be proud of. 

As to the number of those who have contracted the disease and whose health has been greatly reduced in consequence – the sufferers from long COVID, in fact – it is impossible to obtain anything like accurate data.  A hopeful note appears to be sounded, insofar that the rates are declining and that even those who contract COVID are recovering more quickly than they have been in earlier months.  In very approximate terms, about 15% of all American adults have reported symptoms of long COVID, but such symptoms have lasted not more than a year for the majority of cases. 

The great strain that our health care system underwent during the earlier phases of the pandemic has been alleviated long ago, but the system has been weakened by the onslaught:  not so much from the disease itself, but from the damage inflicted by those who sought to deny its severity or even its existence.  Many health care professionals became tired of the abuse they were receiving from those whom they treated, particularly from those who refused to take the vaccines and who then berated the doctors and nurses when they became ill.  The most experienced among them have retired early and the younger ones have turned to other occupations.  According to one poll of 1,000 health care workers conducted in September 2021, 18% had quit their jobs during the 19-month since February, 2020.  By 2025, the U.S. is estimated to have a shortage of approximately 446,000 home health aides, 95,000 nursing assistants, 98,700 medical and lab technologists and technicians, and more than 29,000 nurse practitioners.

There are other consequences that could not have been predicted when the disease first manifested itself.  Remote work – the practice of working in a location apart from a corporate office – has increased dramatically and, while some corporations are requiring their employees to return to the office, quite a number of them are content to enable their employees to work from home, thereby enabling them to economize on office space.  This trend is bound to have far-reaching consequences.  Traffic congestion will become less of an issue in the larger urban areas.  Social interaction among workers, on the other hand, will sharply decrease.  Several people in the past formed their closest friendships from a selection of their colleagues, but that will be less likely to occur when people work from their homes all day and rarely come into close personal contact with any of their co-workers. 

Education has been similarly affected.  Even if students are now returning to the classroom, home schooling has increased in popularity, with students learning from the Internet rather than from face-to-face encounters with teachers and classmates.  It is unclear how children will deal with such isolation.  It is not a new situation by any means; until government-mandated schooling originated in 16^th-century Germany, many men (and, less frequently, women) were educated at their parents’ homes by tutors.  But up to this point we have not seen home-schooling as so large a scale as in recent years, and currently its long-term results can only be a matter for speculation.   

Depression is now more common among young people than it was in the past.  Research from the Walton Family Foundation indicates that members of Generation Z (those born in the year 1997 or later) are nearly twice as likely to fall into depression as those who are 25 and older:  42% of their group as opposed to 23% of the latter.  One in four of them have a close friend or relative addicted to drugs, and one in five is connected with someone who died by suicide.  Even before the pandemic began, depression was on the increase:  according to the CDC, suicide rates for people ages 10 to 24 increased almost 60% between 2007 and 2018.  Emergency department visits for suspected suicide attempts among adolescents rose 31% from 2019 to 2020.  Nearly 90% of Gen Z members believe their generation is not set up for success and 75% feel they are at a disadvantage in comparison to previous generations (such as the Baby Boomers or Gen X) who are at least 42 years old in 2022. 

I think that they are right.  The younger generation is dealing with economic pressures that members of my generation never experienced.  Our country is currently due to be unable to meet its debt obligations by June 1^st – a bare three weeks from now – and, unlike the political parties of previous decades, neither the Republicans nor the Democrats have the faintest inclination towards fiscal responsibility.   Currently the U.S. is the industrialized country with the fourth highest debt-to-GDP ratio.  Only Japan, Italy, and Greece have higher ones. In addition, the national debt is forecast to be double the United States’ GDP by 2051.

The events associated with the pandemic have highlighted the fact that Americans are, as a nation, not especially healthy.  To an extent this reflects well on our medical community:  many people who in earlier times would have succumbed to diseases resulting from compromised immune systems are now able to survive and even to lead reasonably unrestricted lives as a result of the strides we have made in therapeutic medicine.  But most of us continue to be far too sedentary in our habits, to eat too much, and to venture out of doors too little.  At the beginning of the pandemic there was a flurry of outdoor activity, but that for the most part has subsided.  Obesity continues to affect four out of every ten Americans, and indeed the obesity rate climbed over 3% during 2020 and 2021, the early years of the advent of COVID.  Obesity has played a role during the pandemic, tripling the chances of being hospitalization.  Nearly 20% of American children and adolescents are obese, indicating that as Generation Z matures this issue will worsen. 

On a more parochial level it may be noted that Washington DC is doing relatively well in this respect, with an obesity rate of 24.7%:  much too high, to be sure, but considerably better than most other regions of the country.

Less directly, the pandemic affected this country’s political administration.  In all probability Trump would have won the 2020 election if it had not been for the intervention of the COVID pandemic.  Not all of his decisions were bad.  He certainly showed greater sense than Biden has done with respect to border control:  allowing thousands of undocumented people to enter a country while a pandemic is raging is as thoroughly misguided a policy as harassing health officials and ignoring the advice of the medical organizations appointed to implement appropriate measures of control during times such as these.  The frantic efforts of the Trump administration to deny the reality of the disease when it first appeared and then to advocate quack remedies such as hydroxychloroquine and ivermectin were primarily responsible for the populace as a whole becoming disaffected with him; before the hospitals became overburdened with patients on ventilators and mortuary became overburdened with corpses, the independent voters inclined more towards him than towards any of his Democratic rivals.  Thus Trump’s defeat and the subsequent assault on the Capitol might be said to be among the unpredictable side-effects of COVID.    

But it would be misleading to end on so hopeless a note.  My own experience during the COVID years showed that it was possible to lead a quiet and reasonably satisfying life despite the difficulties we have experienced during this time, and I venture to hope that others have done so as well.  Here, then, is a final retrospective of the COVID years:

My own personal health remains good.  I continue my active habits; on my most recent hiking trip I covered about 70 miles, much of it on challenging terrain.  I cannot say for certain at this point whether I will complete 2000 miles for the entire year, but I should at any rate get within striking distance of that goal by the end of December.

I still bring a facemask with me (either on my person or in the car) whenever I leave my house.  It remains an instinctive habit now, just like checking to ensure that I have my keys in my pocket before I close the house door.   Yet I must admit that I have been laxer about using them, and I daresay I will become laxer still as COVID recedes to the background.  In England I did not bother with facemasks after arriving at the Lake District, despite the numerous bus rides I took there.  No one else was wearing one, and so I became careless in turn.  Here I wear one while using public transit, going to stores (although I’m not always consistent about this), and in enclosed areas such as theaters.  But I no longer wear them in restaurants or in private homes, where indeed they appear to be me to be a pointless exercise. 

Social life and convening in crowds are nearly back to the levels that they have been in pre-pandemic years.  Private visits, restaurant dining, going to museums, sitting through theater performances – I have indulged in more of all of these during the first few months of 2023 than in the entire period from mid-March of2020 to the end of December, 2022, and my experience is probably indicative of how people are behaving as a whole. 

I am detecting a decrease in physical activity.  It is becoming more frequent now to wander on the trails without encountering others.  Still, my experience varies.  On certain hikes, such as the Trillium Hikes that I did last weekend, I saw many outside of the group I was with.  On others I was nearly on my own, which was generally was not the case in 2021 and 2022. 

Travel likewise no longer is attended with the difficulties imposed during the earlier phases of the pandemic.  It is no longer necessary to carry proof of vaccination or to undergo testing before returning to the country.  As for travel within the country, any restrictions have disappeared long ago:  people have to strain their memories to recall a time when inter-state travel was curtailed on a state-by-state basis.

I conclude by posting statistics for the last time.  Flawed though they may be, they should be savored while they are still obtainable.  The end of the Public Health Emergency means that states are no longer required to report their COVID data to the CDC.  The CDC will have to perform estimates from hospital admissions (for hospitals still must report to the CDC even if their state does not) and wastewater analysis, which obviously are going to be less accurate. 

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 688,119,252; # of deaths worldwide: 6,873,389; # of cases U.S.: 106,790,393; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,162,693.

And, as we say at the end of the Passover seder:

CONCLUDED AND DONE

The official end of the public health emergency approaches – Winding down the journal – George Santos in difficulties – The concerns of Judge Kaplan – Russian demographics – Evening statistics

The state of emergency declared over three years ago should, if all goes well, end tomorrow.  As noted earlier, such an announcement constitutes a rather artificial endpoint for a pandemic; but any endpoint we devise will be artificial, more or less.  Over the past several months we have been easing into a situation in which people have generally agreed to accept the disease as part of our social and medical background, just as we have for malaria, influenza, polio, and various other diseases.

As the end of the pandemic approaches there are implications for this record as well.  A journal by definition does not have a well-shaped ending, like that of a novel or a biography.  At one point the author simply stops, either because he decides to do so or circumstances intervene.  Various events will inevitably still be unraveling at whatever point the journal ends.  Consider, for example, the various loose ends that will remain at the end of this narrative.  Will Donald Trump be eventually sentenced to imprisonment for his treasonous assaults on our electoral process?  Will the debacle in Ukraine result in the retribution that Vladimir Putin so richly deserves?  Will Fox News learn a lesson from its recent financial hemorrhage and condescend in future to perform some elemental fact-checking before making its broadcasts public?  Will the Democrats come to find fault with Biden’s policy of admitting hundreds of thousands of undocumented migrants into the nation during a pandemic?  Will Rudolph Giuliani obtain a bottle of hair-dye that is truly colorfast?

Answers to these and other pressing questions must be left to pens other than mine.  Well over three years have elapsed since the pandemic began, and the purpose of this journal was to record the events that unrolled from the time of its inception to its closure.  That purpose is, as I believe, approaching fulfillment; not without various digressions, of course.  It is a personal record, not an official document, and as such is colored by the biases and the circumstances of the person who wrote it.  Undoubtedly a very different journal would have been produced by someone who, for example, is not retired, or is dealing with health issues other than those created by the pandemic itself, or is coping with financial difficulties, or is less active, or is more active.  I hope, indeed, that other journals are being produced in various corners of our nation, so that we will have a more comprehensive record of this time than those that pandemics generally leave behind.  Who can remember, for example, how the influenza epidemic of the early 20^th century affected living conditions generally for the years in which it raged?  My grandparents lived through that period, but to my regret I never thought to ask them about it when I had the opportunity.  The official documents of the time are mainly devoted to statistics about the mortality rate; but the manner in which it affected day-to-day living is absent from them, and such details are all but unobtainable now.  I have tried to put details about activities such as shopping for groceries, performing upkeep for a residence, visiting patients at an assisted-living facility, coping with continually shifting travel restrictions, meeting with others both out of doors and within enclosed spaces, and so on.  It is easy to forget the amount of time that it took to determine when it was safe to resume dining in restaurants, for instance, or attending theatrical performances, or venturing out of the country without having to worry about whether it would be possible to return to it.  These concerns are not as frivolous as they might appear at first glance:  such activities that fill the leisure of myself and others constitute the livelihood of many employees in this nation. 

How coherent the journal may be as a whole is another matter.  In Hugo’s Les Miserables, the opening chapter of Part 1, Book 3 consists of the relation of a series of incidents that occurred during the year of 1817 that seem totally unrelated to one another, while several people are mentioned as celebrated during that day, of whom some are remembered and some have been consigned to oblivion.  “Napoleon was at St. Helena, and since the English would not allow him any green cloth he had his old tunics turned.  Pellegrini was singing, Mlle. Bigottini was dancing, Potier was presiding at the Théâtre des Variètiés, and Mme. Saqui had succeeded Forioso on the tightrope.  There were still Prussian troops in France.  Legitimacy had asserted itself by cutting off first the hands and then the heads of Pleignier, Cabonneau, and Tolleron, convicted of having plotted to blow up the Tuileries.”  And so on.  And at the end of the chapter Hugo concludes:

“Such is a random, superficial picture of the year 1817, now largely forgotten.  History discards nearly all these odds and ends and cannot do otherwise; the larger scene absorbs them.  Nevertheless such details, which are wrongly called trifling – there are no trifles in the human story, no trifling leaves on the tree – are not without value.  It is the lineaments of the years which form the countenance of the century.”

In the meantime odds and ends of a similar nature continue to pile up just as haphazardly while these very words are being written.

George Santos has been indicted on 13 counts, including seven counts of wire fraud, three counts of money laundering, one count of theft of public funds, and two counts of making materially false statements to the House of Representatives.  He was taken into custody this morning on Long Island, was arraigned in the afternoon, and then released on bail.  True pupil of Donald Trump that he is, he has refused to apologize for transgressions such as applying for unemployment benefits while earning $120,000 per year, and he has resisted all suggestions for him to resign.  He is admirably qualified for a political career, that is certain.

Judge Lewis Kaplan sounded more like a worried parent allowing his teenaged children to be out on their own for the evening than a legal official when he strongly recommended the jurors of the E. Jean Carroll case not to identify themselves publicly:  “not now and not for a long time.”  It may sound jarring to hear a judge addressing the jurors of a case over which he has just presided in such a fashion, but no one can question his prudence in the matter.  Considering Trump’s habit of directing violence, threats, and general mayhem against anyone who crosses his path, Kaplan’s concern for the safety of the jurors over the next several months seems only too well-justified.

Russia has a shortage of young men.  No surprises there:  casualties in the Ukrainian war have amounted to several hundred thousand; in addition, about 300,000 have fled the country.  “I feel like we are a country of women now,” one Moscow resident said. “I was searching for male friends to help me move some furniture, and I realized almost all of them had left.”  Russia’s central bank found in a recent survey of 14,000 employers that the country’s supply of available workers has hit its lowest level since 1998, pushing Russia into “its worst labor shortage in decades.”  About 100,000 IT engineers, or 10% of the nation’s IT workforce, left Russia last year and have not returned.  Russia already had a substantial gender imbalance before the war began; results from the 2021 census are expected to show that women outnumbered men by 10½ million, quite a substantial amount for a country whose population is about 143½  million.  If the war continues, birth rates could go down to 1 million between mid-2023 and mid-2024, dropping the fertility rate to 1.2 children per woman, a low mark Russia hit only once, in the 1999-2000 period.  A fertility rate of 2.1 is needed to keep populations stable without migration, and unlike our own favored nation, Russia possesses little attraction for migrants, even unauthorized ones.

Have patience, readers:  the end is near.  Hmm . . . that didn’t come out quite in the way I intended.  In all seriousness, however, if the public health emergency officially ends to tomorrow, there will be a single additional entry to complete and then the journal will be done.

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 688,049,169; # of deaths worldwide: 6,872,670; # of cases U.S.: 106,787,016; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,162,662.

Another hike in Sky Meadows – The outcome of the E. Jean Carroll case – The approaching end of the national state of emergency – Evening statistics

Another hike yesterday, this time in Sky Meadows with various friends and a stop at a winery afterwards.  We had wonderful weather, despite the humidity; most of the hike was well-shaded and there was a breeze blowing almost continually.  Even though I have been to Sky Meadows many times, it looks so different in the various seasons; today, with the tree leaves creating a canopy so dense that sunlight was filtering through in shafts, it was scarcely recognizable as the place I visited a mere six weeks ago.

There has been, if not a triumph of justice today, at any rate a mild degree of attainment in that direction.  The jury in the E. Jean Carroll case, after a relatively short three hours of deliberation, has declared Donald Trump to be guilty of battery and defamation of character.  It is a very small victory, since the penalty is only monetary and the amount that he is to pay ($1 million in damages, $1.7 million for reputation repair, and $280,000 in punitive damages, for defamation) represents so minute a fragment of his holdings that he would undergo no substantial hardship even if he were to pay the entire amount without hesitation, which of course he won’t.  After the verdict was announced, he erupted into a storm of fury and has vowed to appeal.  But what else is to be expected?  He didn’t even bother to testify on his own behalf; he simply trusted that the judge would meekly accept his abuse and that the jury would cave in the moment he issued orders to dismiss the case.  And truly, when I reflect upon the number of absolutely spineless men and women he encountered during his administration in Washington, not to mention the legions of associates and employees he habitually bamboozled in his numerous business dealings, I cannot feel any surprise at such an expectation on his part.  Not a single one of his rivals for the Republican nomination will venture to criticize him for being accused of rape.  “There’s not really an incentive for Trump to modify or normalize his behavior,” Harrison Kerr wrote in an article for 19FortyFive. “Why would he? In fact, I suspect his popularity would wane if Trump normalized; Trump’s appeal, in large part, depends upon him acting more outlandishly than his contemporaries.”

The end of the state of emergency is swiftly approaching, internationally as well as nationally.  Last week, WHO’s International Health Regulations Emergency Committee met and decided that the Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) should end because of declining Covid-19-related hospitalizations and deaths, and high levels of immunity in the population.  “For more than a year, the pandemic has been on a downward trend,” WHO’s Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said Friday.  The end of the public health emergency, which has been renewed thirteen times, since the pandemic began, does not mean that COVID can be dismissed idly.  It is now on a par with an especially bad season of influenza, and it should be borne in mind that the less than half of Americans receive influenza vaccines (I myself did not start taking them until relatively recently).  But, with COVID vaccinations now in wide use and new therapeutic methods available, a hopeful note has been sounded and it is steadily growing in resonance.  In the words of Dr. Fauci with regard to the disease:  “If you are vaccinated and boosted and have available therapy, you are not going to die, no matter how old you are.”

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 687,959,850; # of deaths worldwide: 6,871,929; # of cases U.S.: 106,772,583; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,162,474. 

The Trillium Hike, repeated – Signs of rejuvenation among the Wanderbirds – Flowerings on the Appalachian Trail in mid-spring – The long-awaited endemic phase – Evening statistics

To do the same hike twice over in two days Is not unheard of, but it is sufficiently unusual to call for an explanation.  Well, then – I wanted the opportunity for the exercise, but was reluctant to drive much, and Wanderbirds, like the Capital Hiking Club, uses a bus now whenever one is available.  But also I wanted to check on how the buses were being filled since the club’s resumption of using them some weeks earlier.

The outcome exceeded all of my expectations.  For the first time since the pandemic began I was reminded of the experience that had led me to join Wanderbirds in the first place:  a bus nearly full, with well over 40 people, many of whom were regulars of whose continued attendance I had given up as gone forever after the disappointing turnouts of the summer bus hikes during the previous year.  It seems that people’s reluctance to board a bus has faded by this time.  The greater number of them were not even bothering to wear masks.  As we filtered in towards the bus at the end of the hike to eat refreshments and converse, the atmosphere was like of old times:  lively, animated, full of little groups of members chatting about recent trips, amusements about town, medical issues related to the pandemic, and so on.  There was a sprinkling of new hikers as well:  the shifting of Wanderbirds to Meetup is starting to attract attention. 

I must not make too much of this.  The Trillium hike is traditionally one of the most popular hikes of the year, and it is not to be expected that subsequent hikes will be such a resounding success.  But it was such a relief to encounter it after the disappointing experiences of the previous year.  Today, for the first time, I began to feel more confident about re-instituting bus hikes in general for the club. 

There were other reasons for satisfaction.  The trilliums actually appeared more numerous today than they did yesterday.  Trilliums thrive best in fairly dry weather, and the absence of rain overnight caused their petals to droop less and several new blooms to appear overnight.  Many other wildflowers were on full display as well, including a couple of yellow lady-slippers on the Appalachian Trail.  The hike was not quite the same as the one I did yesterday:  after departing from the lake and taking the Verlin Smith Trail, we continued on the fire road all the way to the intersection with the AT and then went south towards the parking area.  Finally, the rain predicted for the afternoon failed to materialize until well after everyone had returned to the bus – it did not begin until I started to drive from the Metro center back home, in fact.

I fell into conversation with a member of the medical profession about COVID, just as I had done the day before.  I expressed admiration, and some wonder, at the speed with which the vaccinations had been developed, since they rely on a new technology.  She told me that in fact the experimentation on the technology had been completed over the course of several years earlier, and that the acceleration of disseminating the vaccines consisted primarily of the manner in which they were distributed to the market.  This process, as I have documented in earlier entries, did not progress altogether smoothly at first; but in the long run it came off very well.  The vaccines have undeniably done their work:  by far the greater number of COVID-related hospitalizations and death are among the unvaccinated.

We also spoke, among other topics, about the impending removal of the national state of emergency that is expected this coming week.  We agreed that such an announcement will be issued, as my epidemiologist friend declared yesterday, mainly for political reasons.  But that is not the entire story.  In a sense the official end of the influenza epidemic during the early 20^th century is a political contrivance as well.  Influenza, after all, has not disappeared in the manner that bubonic plague or the sweating sickness has disappeared. It has merely reached a level that society as a whole has agreed to be containable.  Influenza currently causes 12-13 per 100,000 to die annually.  (This figure has to be treated with some reservation; I have seen many different estimates from various sources.)  If the mortality rate for COVID continues to maintain its current levels, the annual mortality rate will be somewhat higher:  about 20 per 100,000, which is certainly not insignificant but which by no definition can be accounted a crippling epidemic.  We have in fact been gradually shifting to the endemic phase, in which we will all (or nearly all; heaven knows some people are stubborn) receive periodic vaccinations and put up with a certain amount of hospitalizations and deaths while we resume our living habits as they were before the pandemic began.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 687,758,500; # of deaths worldwide: 6,870,999; # of cases U.S.: 106,768,296; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,162,431. 

Catching up on the news, such as it is – The Trillium hike – Evening statistics, with caveats

What has happened on the national and international fronts while I have been cavorting in the U.K.?  I admit that I have not been following the news very closely during the past two weeks.  Ascending Scafell Pike and savoring the views of the various fells from its summit, including the Mourne Mountains in Northern Ireland, somehow seemed to be of greater importance than the comings and goings of Donald Trump.  I cannot account for it, but so it is.

I gather, however, that Tucker Carlson is no longer associated with Fox News and that he has been dismissed for “undisclosed” reasons, though I would venture to guess that his having played a major role in the organization’s being forced to disgorged the largest settlement for slander in the history of journalism might have been a factor in this outcome.  As for Trump himself, he recently has visited Scotland, on account of his beloved golf course, though it must be observed that the country does not love him much in return; such comments that I overheard about this episode in Edinburgh were almost universally derisive. 

He has recently hastened back to New York to superintend the lawsuit that E. Jean Carroll has levelled against him, denouncing the judge as “extremely hostile.”   His own lawyer appears to have given up on him; in a conversation with Lewis Kaplan, the judge in question, he said “I know you understand what I am dealing with.”  Joe Tacopina went on to assure Kaplan that he would attempt to control the stream of insults that Trump continues to post on his various media outlets, to which Kaplan responded hope you’re more successful” and went on to say that Trump “may or may not be tampering with a new source of potential liability. . . . And I think you know what I mean.”  Dare I hope that Kaplan will have the strength to impose a few days of imprisonment for Trump’s repeated violations in this respect?  Contempt of court can incur a jail sentence of up to ten days. 

In any case, I continue to roam the forest floors.  I went with the Capital Hiking Club on the Trillium Hike today.  The trilliums reached peak bloom earlier than usual this year on account of the early beginning of spring, but there were still several to be seen, as well as many other wildflowers:  starry chickweed, wild geranium, May apple, bloodroot, rue anemone.  It was gratifying to overhear the remarks of several other riders in the bus to the effect that they were grateful to have the opportunity to access trailheads in this manner – the alternative, since they live in the city and do not possess cars, being to rent out a car and drive on their own, a troublesome and potentially expensive undertaking.

After the hike I conversed with LE, an epidemiologist.  I expressed some relief that the mortality rate of COVID has been declining and that it appears to be approaching the containable rate of influenza.  She was somewhat hesitant in concurring:  a decline was certainly apparent since the advent of the vaccines, she said, but the amount of excess mortality (the number of deaths greater than the expected number as a result of the records of previous years) suggests that the data in this respect are incomplete.  Testing is now performed less frequently than it was in earlier stages and home testing has been all but abandoned.  Several deaths imputed to other causes have in all probability had COVID as their root cause.  I also referred to the expected announcement next week of the end of the national state of emergency that had been declared three years ago, to which she smiled and said, “It’s mainly political.”

The statistics below therefore must be viewed with certain reservations.  Such as they are, however –

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 687,722,214; # of deaths worldwide: 6,870,840; # of cases U.S.: 106,767,388; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,162,427. 

I went on my first long trip of the year, going with several others to hike in the Lake District and to see a couple of friends in England.  I actually returned on the evening of the 2^nd, but it always takes me a few days to get re-organized.  And it takes a fair amount of time to write out an account of the events of a trip, even an abbreviated version. 

April 20-21

A bitter journey!  I left a day before the others in the group to meet with friends in England.  But I booked my flight with British Airways, which manages airplane flights about as efficiently as the government of Queen Victoria handled food distribution in Ireland during the Great Famine.  The flight to Heathrow was canceled, so they put me on a flight with United instead.  But since I was continuing to Edinburgh, I needed to get my baggage checked there; and United would check my baggage only as far as Heathrow, since the connecting flight was still with British Airways.   When I asked the people at the British Airways check-in desk at Dulles about this issue, they told me that I would have to claim my baggage at Heathrow and then check in again at the British Airways desk there.  How they imagined that such a course was feasible is something to marvel at.  It took about an hour-and-a-half to go to the baggage claim area, undergo passport verification, collect my luggage, and take the train from one terminal to another.  Then it took another 40 minutes to go through the line at the British Airways check-in at Heathrow.  By this time, of course, the flight to Edinburgh had long departed.  They put me on another flight, which departed some four hours later from the London City airport.  But I did not have to worry overmuch about how to pass the time during the interval, because the journey on the Metro from Heathrow to London City involved two transfers (one including a walk from one station to another, while it was raining) and consumed another 90 minutes.  It must be added, in fairness, that the flight from London City to Edinburgh was quite efficient and fairly comfortable.

I was afterwards to learn that the remainder of the group, who flew to the U.K. on the following day, fared no better.  The flight from Dulles to Heathrow landed too late for them to make the connection to Edinburgh, and they ended up taking a five-hour ride by Uber to the hotel in the Lake District.  British Airways told their passengers that they were “sorry for the inconvenience” and that, in their eyes, seemed to be the end of the matter.

I was somewhat placated by seeing my first glimpse of Edinburgh, which is an architectural wonder:  indeed, it is one of the finest cities in Europe in this respect.  There was not time to do much, since I was meeting others there, but I did manage to go up to the top of Arthur’s Seat, a high hill on the outskirts of the city.  The hike is about 2½ miles long and involves an ascent of about 800 feet.  It is one of those rare sights that has received an abundance of praise and yet is not a letdown when one actually sees it:  it deserves all of the encomiums that it has received.  It provides a bird-s-eye of Edinburgh, with the castle standing prominently in the distance on a somewhat lower eminence, with all of the massive, imposing buildings clustered around each side of the long street stretching from the palace below all the way to the castle that constitute the Old Town. 

The season was considerably less advanced in this area than it was back home, with many double-blossomed cherry trees in full bloom.

April 22:  Penrith

Due to a rather complicated set of circumstances, I was obliged to stop in Penrith instead of making my way directly to the hotel in Rosthwaite to meet the others.  But Penrith itself proved to be delightful in its way.  It is a market town, with several ancient market sites strung together (one for meat, one for vegetables, one for grain, etc.) and the narrow alleys provided a place of safety during the internal skirmishes that periodically troubled the area during the Late Middle Ages, and during the War of the Roses in particular.  Even today, one can use the alleys to avoid walking along the streets, some of which are heavily trafficked.  The town contains the ruins of a castle that, among other things, served as a home for the Duke of Gloucester in his early years, before he became Rickard III.  It is somewhat small, as castles go – his bachelor pad, as I called it.  The town has literary associations as well.  Mary Hutchinson, the wife of Wordsworth, came from the area; and Coleridge first published in this town, walking about 20 miles to carry his manuscripts to Penrith’s printing press. 

April 23:  Rosthwaite, Watendlath, and Dock Tarn

I made it to the hotel in Rosthwaite at last.  I may say that at this point I became extremely lax about wearing facemasks, despite the numerous bus trips I was to take to various trailheads.  No one else bothered about the matter and I was affected by the general carelessness in this respect.  Nor were people wearing them in stores or other enclosed areas.  Truly the pandemic may be said to have receded, at any rate in theory.

Since the remainder of the group had arrived the day before and were hiking in Keswick, I did a hike on my own after I checked in at the hotel in Rosthwaite.  Ostensibly it was 5 miles long with 1200 feet of elevation gain, but owing to various wrong turns and detours I added at least 1½ miles and 300-400 of ascent.  The first part, ascending over a ridge and then going down to the tarn at Watendlath, was quite straightforward.  It was a somewhat cloudy day, and the reflection of the clouds on the surface of the water gave the lake an oddly pearl-like appearance.  From there I went to Dock Tarn, which was much more difficult.  The trail was extremely marshy in many places and, in addition to being unmarked itself, intersected many other unmarked trails, so that it was not easy to decide where to turn at trail junctions.  At one point I headed to the top of the highest summit in the area, with the most appropriate name of Great Crag.   But this was a profitable detour, for it not only gave me a view of Dock Tarn itself to enable me to head in its direction but in addition provided an overlook of the entire valley, a so-called hanging valley that was formed by glacial erosion.  Great Crag is, as I afterwards learned, a “Wainwright,” one of the 214 Lake District fells described in Alfred Wainwright’s seven volume Pictorial Guide to the Lakeland Fells.  (Wainwright is the man who originated the Coast-to-Coast hike route as well.)  There were many people at Watendlath but I encountered no one at Dock Tarn, which to my mind is the more interesting of the two:  nestled among little hills in the plateau, with numerous waterfowl resting on the water’s surface and along the shoreline.  The final descent was very challenging:  700 feet down in about ½ mile, and extremely rocky as well.  Despite the relatively short distance, the hike took me three hours to complete.

Rosthwaite itself is a small village in the Borrowdale valley, about six miles from the market town of Keswick, consisting mainly of a couple of farms and a few accommodations for visitors on account of its proximity to numerous trailheads.  It is one of the stops on the Coast-to-Coast hike; and in fact the hotel at which we were lodged was the same one at which I stayed when I went on the Coast-to-Coast hike five years ago.

April 24: Rosthwaite to Keswick via High Spy and Catbells, 9 miles, 2400’

This hike was almost perfect and, rather surprisingly, less arduous than the hike of the day before, despite the greater mileage and elevation gain.  There was a good deal less boggy ground to go over and the grades were somewhat less challenging.  The first two miles were the steepest, leading past an abandoned stone quarry; after this first ascent the remaining uphill portions were relatively short and somewhat gentler in grade.  We went along a wide moor to the summit of High Spy, and as we did so the beautiful Derwent Water emerged into view below, along with many other peaks and valleys, including Catbells.  Much of the trail consisted of rock, some of it carved into steps.  Early in the day the sky was somewhat overcast but it became sunnier as we ascended to High Spy and the temperature, though brisk, was not chilly.  In general we were extraordinarily fortunate in our weather, with no rain for every single day that we hiked.  From High Spy we went along a ridgeline, first descending and then undergoing mild ups and downs to Catbells.  Although the summit of Catbells is lower than that of High Spy, its proximity to the lake provides closer and more detailed views of Derwent Water and of the buildings of Keswick stretching from the shoreline to the town center. 

Keswick itself is a prepossessing place with several pubs, restaurants, and stores, including a central square limited to pedestrians that constitutes the main shopping area.  It lacks, however, the charm of places such as Grasmere and Ambleside; it is simply a pleasant and well-built market town, without any special features to attract the casual visitor’s attention.

April 25: Scafell Pike, 14 miles, 4000’

The hike was a difficult one, but that is to be expected, for Scafell Pike is the highest peak in England:  about 3200 feet above sea level (as compared to 3500 feet for Snowdon in Wales and 4400 feet for Ben Nevis in Scotland).  We took a cab to get to Seathwaite, where the trail begins; but after the hike we had to walk along the road for about 2½ miles back to Rosthwaite – which actually was not a bad way to unwind after the rigors of the day.  The hike goes mainly over rocks and boulders, and much of it is a continual uphill.  At one point the path flattens out and one has the delusion that the most arduous part of the hike is complete; in fact, after going around a bend it continues over shattered rock debris, with steep grades ascending and descending along the boulder fields (it does both before approaching the summit).  Numerous mountain tops are seen from the summit, interspersed with the valleys of Wasdale and Borrowdale.  The weather was fairly sunny at the summit, although there was a sharp wind blowing, causing us to nestle among the rocks to obtain a measure of shelter while eating lunch.  Nonetheless, when we told the man at the hotel desk afterwards about the favorable weather he could hardly believe it.  He had hiked up to the peak on numerous occasions, and each time it was gray and overcast, and often wet as well.

I must here, incidentally, indulge in a diatribe against British dog-owners, who, as I have already observed, are even worse than American dog-owners, difficult though that may be to believe.  Many hikers had brought their dogs with them to the summit and not a single one of them was on a leash, despite the regulations that require one.  Most of the dogs were fairly well-behaved, but not of all of them were.  When I sat down to lunch, one of these over-indulged mongrels came sniffing at the food I was conveying to my mouth, in expectation of some sort of handout.  I told its owners – rather sharply, I will admit – to call it off, and they complied; but they seemed surprised, indeed shocked, that I was not flattered by their darling pet’s singling me out for its attentions.  This propensity for disregarding the offensive effects of their dogs’ playful gambols was emphasized on the day of our departure, when one dog slipped away from its owners and bounded upon one member of our party just as we were loading up on the bus to return to Edinburgh, tumbling her onto the muddy ground.

April 26:  Rosthwaite to Grasmere, 10½ miles, 2900’

Going from Rosthwaite to Grasmere is part of the Coast-to-Coast hike, but we took an alternate route.  We first went up Eagle Crag, quite a difficult climb.  When viewed from the valley, its walls appear vertical.  This is in fact not quite the case, but the grade for the most part is at a very acute angle, and the portion approaching the summit requires the use of hands and arms, as well as a bit of ingenuity in devising toeholds.  Unsurprisingly, the experts do not recommend this route for descending or for attempting it during increment weather.  The views from its summit, however, were spectacular, chiefly of the Borrowdale fells connected by the beautiful valley. 

After this climb we went over a couple of gentle ups and downs to a high meadow, and eventually we made our way to the standard Coast-to-Coast route as it began the descent towards Grasmere.  But we veered from it again, by not taking the straightforward descent down to Grasmere and instead turning east to go along a ridgeline that included numerous peaks:  Calf Crag, Gibson Knott, and Helm Crag.  As always, we had imposing views from the various peaks, particularly as we came closer to Grasmere and could view the town from above.  The weather, however, was becoming threatening, with black rain clouds in the distance heading in our direction.  In response, I fairly hared up and down Helm Crag in my anxiety to get off of the rocks before the rain began.  As it happened, we received no more than a light sprinkling.  Once we regrouped from the descent from Helm Crag, we made our way to Grasmere, passing by the Glenthorne Guest House, where I had stayed for one night during the Coast-to-Coast hike.  I have fond memories of the place:  it is the Quaker Meeting House of the town as well as a B&B, and it thus was of historic interest, in addition to being extremely comfortable.  We did not have the opportunity to stay in Grasmere very long, to my disappointment, since we had to ensure that we were in time to board the last bus of the day to Keswick, and thence to Rosthwaite.  We came into town just as the second-to-last bus pulled in; it was full and could not take on any more passengers.  So most of the group decided to take a taxi back to the hotel after we all had an early dinner.  A few of us, however, took a chance and waited for the last bus of the day to arrive.  It was only half-full and had no difficulty in accommodating all of the passengers who boarded, so we made our way back to Rosthwaite easily.

April 27:  Rosthwaite to Buttermere, 7½ miles, 3150’

This hike repeated the initial climb towards High Spy, going as far as the quarry before turning away to ascend a second peak, which looked formidable from a distance but which was much less arduous than it appeared.  Here again we experienced 360-degree views, including Keswick in the valley below.  We proceeded along a ridgeline, taking a side trail to the summit of Honister that eventually circled back to the ridgeline.  From Honister we saw the peaks we had roamed over three days earlier from above, including High Spy and Catbells.  We then went up another ascent to the top of Robertson before beginning the final descent to Buttermere.  This descent was steep and rocky in places, like so many of the descents in the Lake District.  The weather was windy at the top of Robertson, and overcast as well, but there was no rain.  The descent from Robertson provided the best views of all, focusing on the lakes of Buttermere and Crummock Water, both of them sapphirine-blue, with the little village of Buttermere nestled between them.

We did not linger long in Buttermere, which is said to be quaint and picturesque but which in fact is of little intrinsic interest, and instead took the bus that arrived just a few minutes after we came to the main village square.  The ride back to Rosthwaite was quite interesting, going over a mountain road that barely contained enough room for the width of the bus.  Once Buttermere was out of sight, the area appeared strangely wild and remote, even though we knew that there were several villages just a few miles away.  As we went to Honister Pass we passed by the store at the Honister Slate Mine, which again brought back memories of the Coast-to-Coast hike; the segment from Ennerdale to Rosthwaite passes this landmark. 

April 28:  High Raise and Pike of Stickle, 13 miles, 3100’

Again we had a lovely hike, which was less strenuous than the earlier ones in spite of the extra mileage.  We began by repeating the Coast-to-Coast route from Rosthwaite to Grasmere (bypassing Eagle Crag this time).  We met a pair of Coast-to-Coast hikers from the U.S. on this portion and chatted with them.  Most of the ascent was not steep, with the exception of about 1/10^th mile close to the top of the ridge.  This portion was quite steep and occasionally required the use of hands as well as feet, but it did not last long and we were rewarded with beautiful views of the various crags surrounding Borrowdale Valley.  From there we ascended, much more gradually to High Raise.  The views were obscured by clouds here but we had glimpses of the valley now and then.  After lunch we proceeded to Pike of Stickle.  A “stickle” is a hill with a steep and prominent rocky top and a “pike” is a hill with a peaked summit, so the name is somewhat repetitive.  At any rate, it is certainly accurate as a description; it is a rock pile almost conical in shape, and the path that led up to its top was an enjoyable rock scramble.  At the top we saw Langdale Valley about 2000 feet below us.  After we left Pike of Stickle we went down a long descent, which must be unique in the Lake District:  it was not especially steep and made use of numerous switchbacks.  We skirted by Eagle Crag during the descent to a trail that goes from Langdale Valley to Borrowdale Valley, and as we did so the weather became increasingly sunny.  After several miles we came to a path that led to Stonethwaite, a pretty little village nearly adjacent to Rosthwaite, which we stopped at a pub to relax, leisurely drinking in the garden and savoring the sunlight pouring down from an unclouded sky, quite a rare occurrence in the Lake District.  From there it was a road walk back to Rosthwaite, but this portion of the walk was only a mile long and the roads were almost devoid of cars.  A wonderful day!

April 29:  Rydal Water and Ambleside, 7 miles, 700’

I was in the mood for something less taxing than the hikes we had completed on previous days, and this one fitted in with my expectations.  It was not spectacular, but it was extremely satisfying:  a pleasant ramble around a long lake that was surrounded by fells.  Waterfowl disported on the water’s surface and many people in boats were sculling.  A short spur trail led to a series of caves, with rock walls carved and curiously patterned by the eons of weathering.  A good way to unwind after a strenuous, albeit enjoyable, week.

After the hike we lunched in Ambleside, which is a very attractive town, with numerous houses presenting slate-stone exteriors.  It has literary associations as well: it was the home of Harriet Martineau, that remarkable abolitionist who wrote extensively on numerous other sociological topics as well (she is indeed sometimes seen as the first female sociologist) and who, quite unusually for a woman of the early Victorian era, was able to support herself by her writings.

April 30 – May 1:  Edinburgh

We left Rosthwaite in a bus hired for the group and arrived at Edinburgh during the early afternoon.  Most of us explored the Old Town, although we were somewhat hindered by various rain showers.  It is impossible to describe the architecture of Old Town in a manner that can explain how impressive it is.   The streets are narrow and cobblestoned, and the buildings are great piles of cut stones fitted together, dating back to medieval times, with massive walls to withstand the severe Northern climate.  The Old Town is not large, consisting mainly of the Royal Mile, a street stretching from the castle at the top of the main hill down to Holyrood Palace, with a couple of streets on either side of it and various alleys (which are called “closes” in this city) connecting them.  Since Edinburgh became crowded at an early point in its history, many of the buildings were constructed to make optimum use of the available square footage, rising to ten stories and more.  But the buildings are not simply big; they are graceful as well, with tall paneled windows placed at regular intervals along the exteriors and with triangular pediments on top of the porticos leading to the house entrances.  A long series of gardens separates the Old Town from the New Town, whose architecture is Georgian – although Princes Street, the main street of this area, contains more modern buildings as well.  Princes Street also contains the strange Gothic monument to Walter Scott, rearing 200 feet high:  a “spire without a cathedral,” as it is sometimes called. 

The following day we toured the castle, which was not quite what I expected.  Its status as a royal residence declined in the 17^th century and it was used primarily for military purposes since that time, particularly during the Victorian period.   Many portions of the original castle were destroyed by artillery bombardment and replaced by more modern edifices.  Some older parts survive, such as St. Margeret’s Chapel from the early 12 century, the Great Hall (although even that was altered during the mid-Victorian period), and the Royal Palace, which includes the chamber where Mary Queen of Scots gave birth to the boy who eventually became James I of England.  I had purchased the audio tour, which turned out to be more of a distraction than an aid.  Castle Rock, the hill on which the castle is built, is about 430 feet above sea level, and thus provides sweeping views of all areas of the city in every direction, down all the way to the shoreline of Leith (about 2½ miles from the city itself), 

The weather was sunny in the morning, but during our tour of the castle it became increasingly chilly and cloudy.  By the time we left the castle rain was threatening, and we experienced brief showers from time to time.  A visit to the National Museum of Scotland thus was indicated for the afternoon, and there we according went for a couple of hours.  The museum itself, although containing many interesting artifacts, is rather a jumble, and its lighting leaves something to be desired; in several cases the inscriptions are so dimly lit that it is difficult to read them.  The best part of the exhibits is the section that deals with ancient Egypt, in which the objects are arranged in chronological order and provide a coherent overview of the history of its culture.  I also visited, on my own, the National Gallery, which is small but which contains many superb paintings, including, not surprisingly, several Raeburns. 

I would have stayed longer in the city after the visit to the museum, but the weather was steadily worsening.  In the end I returned to the hotel, where I met with a few other to dine together and then to turn in early.

Edinburgh is a delightful experience in every respect except one:  the swarms of people who habitually sprawl over the entire width of the sidewalks, which sometimes makes progress difficult.  Perhaps this is true of any city that sees hundreds of tourists visiting it on a daily basis, but in Edinburgh this type of behavior is especially noticeable because the walkways can become quite narrow at times.  I believe, however, that I am correct in observing that Europeans in general are more reluctant than Americans to walk in single file in public areas.  On several occasions I would walk along High Street (the main street of Old Town) while people coming in the opposite direction would be walking two, three, or even four abreast, never dreaming of falling back to allow foot traffic to go in the other direction, and causing me to speculate whether or not I had donned Harry Potter’s Invisibility Cloak without being aware of it. 

May 2

There is little to record about this day, except that since the flight departure time was 2:00, there was time in the morning for a pleasant ramble through Gyle Park in the Corstorphine area. 

Going through Customs after we landed was astonishingly easy; I cannot recall a swifter processing among all of the international trips I have taken.  The Customs officer asked only a single question – whether or not I was carrying any food with me – and when I replied that I was not, he waved me through.  No questions at all about whether I had anything to declare, which puzzles me. 

On the following day I could not help noticing how much larger various objects appear after spending nearly two weeks in the U.K.:  streets, trees, sidewalks, houses, lawns, people.  With respect to this last category I am not being entirely complimentary:  I could wish that the morbidly obese were less well represented in our population.

Chiefly a rant against politically correct euphemisms – Evening statistics

I have come across another change in the naming of our roads that irritates me profoundly.  The road formerly called “Plantation Parkway” has been re-christened “Fair Woods Parkway.”  It follows the same pattern of the recent re-naming of “Old Lee Highway” to “Blenheim Boulevard” and of “Rebel Run” to “Lion Run”; the idea, apparently, being to purge Fairfax City from any taint of Confederacy.  And in this case it’s so completely unnecessary.  “Plantation” is a perfectly innocuous word.  It means a large farm devoted to the cultivation of a single main crop:  often in practice, it is true, of cotton, tobacco, or sugarcane, which in the ante-bellum South were certainly managed by crews of slaves.  But a plantation in itself does not necessarily equate to slavery.  It merely signifies a farm with a certain function.  Many exist in the country today.  It does not mean a farm that uses slave labor.  There is no more need to remove the word from the language than it is to remove “Kristall” (glass) from German simply on account of the Nazis looting and pillaging Jewish shops on “Kristallnacht” in 1938.

Many years ago, Mad Magazine parodied this concern for avoidance of potentially upsetting language by showing us a dining room in a wealthy household full of guests who were avidly discussing the excellence of the broiled chest of chicken served for dinner and their participation in meetings of the Lavatory Birch Society.  If ridicule could kill, this type of pretentiousness would be long gone; but unfortunately it very much alive with us today.

But what does it matter, it may be asked, if the name change is, in Douglas Adams’s phrase, “mostly harmless”?  The answer is that the prurience of such false delicacy is every bit as blatant as that of the 19^th-century lady who sedulously covered snowmen with clothes to shield the supposedly refined sensibilities of young maidens.  It is as thoroughly repellent as it is ridiculous.  It is gestures such as these that characterize the Left at its worst, and which alienate thousands of Americans – my friend JN, for instance, who has worked at blue-collar jobs and has voted Democratic all of his life until 2016, when he was so repelled by Hillary Clinton and, four years later, by Joseph Biden, that he refrained from voting at all. 

To those zealots who are dedicated to refining American modes of thought I would say:  concentrate your efforts on the issues that really matter – for instance, upon those would-be disrupters of elections who clog our judicial system with frivolous and costly lawsuits whenever the results of a ballot turns out not to be to their satisfaction (yes, Kari Lake, I’m looking at you).  That, surely, should absorb your energies to the full.  Oh, yes, and leave linguistics alone:  that field, decidedly, is not your forte.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 685,915,037; # of deaths worldwide: 6,844,203; # of cases U.S.: 106,491,174; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,158,454.  During the past few days the COVID-related deaths have been in the range of 75-150 per day; if this trend continues, COVID will scale back in mortality rate to parity with influenza. 

Fox News has reached a settlement with Dominion Voting Systems in order to avoid the lawsuit levied against the organization:  it will pay $787 million to the latter, just under half of the $1.6 billion Dominion originally asked for but a substantial amount all the same.  The net worth of Fox News is about $16.44 billion, so it will end up paying nearly 5% of its entire holdings.  And the “stolen election” claim of Trump supporters has received some official discredit as well.  But the outcome is disappointing all the same.  The most egregious of the offenders – Tucker Carlson, Sean Hannity, and Laura Ingraham – emerge unscathed.  In effect, Rupert Murdoch is paying to avoid making any public acknowledgement that some of its biggest stars deliberately lied to their viewers and that the viewers were sadly mistaken in believing them: he is paying in order to avoid any negative impact on the network’s ratings.

This outcome illustrates why suits levelled at Trump and his allies that involve only monetary penalties are ineffective.  Their holdings are too great for fines, even substantive ones, to make any impact on them.  The only penalty that can make any impression on such people is prison.

 Vladimir Putin earns about $125,000 annually from his position as President of Russia and his official residence is an apartment with a large open-plan room that serves both as living room and dining room, a kitchen, an office, a bedroom, and three bathrooms – comfortable, but not especially luxurious and not unduly costly for its size and location in central Moscow (slightly over $2000 per month in rent).  It’s so refreshing to see a government leader living a relatively modest lifestyle – that is, assuming you don’t factor in the following other residences in his possession:

1. The Grand Kremlin Palace, which admittedly is a working residence; he doesn’t actually live there. 
2. Novo-Ogaryovo in the elite neighborhood of Rublyovka, aka Russia’s Beverly Hills on the outskirts of Moscow. Putin doesn’t officially own the place but the property was allocated to him in perpetuity after he became Prime Minister in 2008.  The compound includes a 19th-century palace built for Grand Duke Sergei Alexandrovich, a huge villa “in modern Russian style,” a six-story reception building, a private hospital, a vast sports and well-being complex, an ice rink, a deluxe log cabin, a private church for Putin and his family, a heliport, and a private bridge.  A $15 million sauna was built on the property, but it burned down in 2021, never having been used.  One hopes he’ll get around to replacing it soon.
3. Bocharov Ruchey in the Black Sea resort of Sochi, where the 2014 Winter Olympic Games were held.  This is his official summer residence and has been used to host many visiting government leaders, including George W. Bush and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
4. The grandiose Constantine Palace in St Petersburg.
5. The Yantar Palace in Kaliningrad.

And now we come to the un-official ones:

1. A VIP ski resort in the Caucasus Mountains, a château that has been likened to the Palace of Versailles.
2. “Putin’s Palace,” a building on the Black Sea coast (but not to be confused with the official Bocharov Ruchey property listed above) that could easily serve as a good-sized hotel instead of a house for one person, costing about $1.4 billion, about 190,000 square feet (about three times larger than the White House).  Its rooms include a deluxe gilded theatre, a lap-dancing room, and a hookah lounge, along with Putin’s magnificent master bedroom.  Outdoor amenities include an “aqua disco,” an underground ice hockey rink, a Byzantine-style church, a mammoth restaurant and entertainment complex, and, finally, a winery.  (On paper, this property belongs to billionaire oligarch Arkady Rotenberg, but Putin has a habit of concealing his holdings among his network of relatives and close associates.)
3. A retreat on Lake Valdai, which is located in the Novgorod region of north-western Russia between Moscow and St Petersburg.  This is not a single building but a complex, including a 38,000 square-foot mansion; a 75,000 square-foot spa complete with a pool, hammam, and Jacuzzi; a Chinese-style pavilion; a deluxe log cabin; a mini-casino; a private church; a golf course (to accommodate surprise visits from Donald Trump?); and, for good measure, a private railway station, which is part of a larger network that connects Putin’s properties to his private presidential terminal at Moscow-Kalanchevskaya Station.  The mansion’s interior is modeled on that of the Hermitage Museum, and it includes golden and silver living rooms, a music room graced with a $158,000 concert grand piano, and a shimmering “night cellar” with a canopy ceiling covered in petals of gold leaf.
4. A mysterious “Property V”, allegedly worth $200 million, in the elite Greenfield development near Moscow. This 91,500 square-foot residence features a helipad, a football field, stables, and its own forest.
5. A 40,900 square-foot dwelling is located near the Krasnaya Polyana ski resort in the Krasnodar region, whose furnishings include a Blüthner grand piano ($80,900) and a Frette candle holder ($3,700).  It has its own cable car, helipad, and sauna.

Putin is also said to own an estate in Siberia’s Altai Mountains, which houses a nuclear bunker akin to an underground city, as well as a multimillion-euro villa near Marbella in Spain, but since these are only rumors and are not (yet) confirmed by documentation, we won’t count those.

Naturally Putin requires transportation to shuttle to all of those properties, and that he possesses in abundance:

1. A fleet of 43 planes, including a jet kitted out with an $18 million cabin designed by a top jewler, as well as a gold toilet that cost $75,000.
2. A supplemental fleet of 15 top-end helicopters.
3. Several yachts, including:  a) The Graceful, a 267-foot long yacht that cost $119 million initially and takes $10 million per year to run; b) the Scheherazade, a 459-foot beauty Scheherazade, worth about $507 million (Putin had a bit of ill luck with this one; it was seized last year by Italian authorities in the port of Marina di Carrara); c) the Olympia, priced at $22 million Olympia; and d) the Chayka, priced at a relatively modest $18 million.
4. A collection of 700 automobiles, including  an Aurus limo, which cost $1.2 million:  a heavily armored, James Bond-style vehicle that is built to resist bomb and chemical attacks and is decked out with a plethora of state-of-the-art security features.

This man makes Donald Trump look like an ascetic in comparison.

Today’s statistics as of 10:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 685,806,155; # of deaths worldwide: 6,843,505; # of cases U.S.: 106,481,967; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,158,347.

Theodor Diener, in memoriam – A Wanderbirds picnic – Increased amount of travel – Trump’s proposal for government employee examinations – Evening statistics

I was saddened to learn of the death of Theodor Diener, the Swiss-American scientist who discovered “viroids,” the smallest known agents of plant disease (they are about 80 times smaller than a virus).  This discovery enabled the control of diseases in many important crop plants, to the great benefit of the global food supply.  But it was not as a scientist that I knew him, but as a hiker.  During his 90s he had lost his wife and, to obtain some solace for his loss, rejoined the Wanderbirds club, to which he had belonged several years previously, and cheerfully paced the trails despite his advanced age.  There is one hike in particular in which I remember him; it was on our Rachel Carson Trail/Northwest Branch Trail loop, where I met him at the point just after going over the bridge on Colesville Road from the mill to the Northwest Branch and turning to go upward.   He cut quite a gallant figure that afternoon; although age had slowed him down it could not stop him. 

The Wanderbirds held their first picnic hike of the year, at Patapsco.  It was rather a Tantalus-like experience for me, for I had had a medical procedure on the preceding Friday and had been warned by the physicians not to engage in over-strenuous exertion.  However, I was able to go for four other hikers there and back along the Ridge Trail for a round trip of four miles, savoring the piedmont scenery and the abundance of wildflowers; here, as in many other locations, the spring beauties were exceptionally plentiful and fresh-colored.  And afterwards, when everyone had returned from their hike, we gathered in the Avalon area of the park, with its extensive pavilions and easy access to restrooms.  It was sunny in the morning, but it clouded over during the afternoon and the air thereby felt cooler, even though the temperature was over 80 degrees.  And we feasted on appetizers and grilled meats and numerous vegetable dishes and a variety of desserts,   Hiking and eating and socializing:  a typical Wanderbirds celebration, in short.

Much of our conversation centered on trips we had taken or were planning to take, for after the confinement we had been forced to endure during the earlier months of the pandemic the amount of travel hasexpanded almost exponentially during the past year.  In particular, I conversed with members who had taken recent trips to exotic locations, such as Egypt and Cuba.   Both countries, it appears, are extremely hospitable towards tourists, since much of their national economies depends on them.  EF and MJ displayed their new camper, which they will be using in a few weeks to travel across the country, eventually arriving in San Diego, where they will be residing for the next two years.  Yes, matters have changed since the beginning of the pandemic; travel looms large in the future of almost every single member, and a casual eavesdropper who listened to our interchanges that afternoon might be pardoned for mistaking us for a group of nomads.

Donald Trump announced that if he were elected he would require federal employees take a civil service test and fire the workers who do not pass it.  The test would include topics such as command of due process rights, equal protection, free speech, religious liberty, and the Fourth Amendment to the Constitution’s protection against unreasonable search and seizure.  This is actually a surprisingly reasonable idea, coming as it does from such a source.  The only drawback is that if Trump himself were subjected to such a procedure he would flunk his own test.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 685,712,475; # of deaths worldwide: 6,842,781; # of cases U.S.: 106,474,559; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,158,254.  At this point there is a widespread impression that the number of deaths from COVID have decreased to such an extent that one has as much change as dying from a traffic accident as from COVID.  But that impression is false, despite the recent decline in COVID-related deaths.  In August, 2022, for example, the number of people who died in traffic accidents was about 3,850.  The number of people who died from COVID in the last week of August alone was 3,918. 

Strange stories about Putin – Biden’s bid for re-election – COVID precautions in decline, both home and abroad – Difficulties in collecting COVID data – Evening statistics

There are rumors that Putin is ill.  Some of these claim that he is actually dying, but it is impossible to tell one way or the other.  The Kremlin would not release such information even if it were true, and the Ukrainian sources naturally have a bias in the opposite direction.  If he is indeed dying and the state of his health became known, the campaign against Ukraine would be seriously undermined.  Perhaps North Korea itself offers fewer obstacles to reliable information about its national affairs than Russia.  There is some footage showing Putin visibly limping in Sevastopol at the ceremonies celebrating the ninth year of Crimea’s annexation.  But that, of course, may only be a temporary condition and in any case is not necessarily a sign of mortal illness.  Denmark’s military intelligence service believes that Putin probably does not have a terminal illness at all, although it claims to have information to the effect that Putin has been given hormone treatments for cancer in recent months.  He has good reason, other than health issues, for looking grim and concerned.  Russian economy has suffered greatly from the war, not least on account of the number of young men diverted from the work force:  about one million men have been drafted and an additional million have fled the country to avoid being drafted.

We are not in a position to cast stones at a nation whose leader may be too old or disabled to fulfill the functions of his office, for Biden has recently announced he has decided to run for a second term and will formally announce his re-election campaign “relatively soon.”  I can only hope that the Democrats will have the sense to nominate a different candidate.  He is not what might be called an inspiring figure.  Biden’s approval ratings are stuck in the low 40s, and  if elected he would be 86 by the end of a second term, nine years older than the average U.S. male life expectancy.  To be fair, his would-be competitor is a mere four years younger than he and in addition is currently besieged by numerous lawsuits that reflect on him disgrace rather than credit.  But even so, the Democrats would do well to show a little foresight and to stop clinging to so many of their antediluvian representatives in both the executive and legislative branches, whose age could almost be expressed in geological terms. 

What is the status of COVID amid these domestic and international furors?  Very far removed from the public radar at this point.  From both national and international localities I can cull only a few examples:

“I’m hoping it’s true that we are getting to more where COVID is like flu, is like RSV (respiratory syncytial virus),” said Dr. Leisha Nolen, an epidemiologist for Utah’s Department of Health and Human Services.  Utah is planning to stop reporting case counts next month, although other data will continue to be updated weekly. Abroad the indications are the most people are similarly inured to the presence of the disease.  Singapore recently saw an upsurge of nearly double the amount of COVID cases this past week, as compared to the week before, but “cases are mostly mild,” according to its Ministry of Health, and Singapore has no plans to reinstate the mandates it dropped in February.   India has also seen a substantial increase in COVID cases, but the mortality remains at 1.19%:  significant, but not worse than many other diseases that are now relegated to the “endemic” status. 

And of course the data being reported are undergoing continual revision.  Recently Florida removed more than 32,000 COVID cases from its reported tally, a decrease of about 17%.  No explanation was given for the decrease, but other metrics suggest that this modification is justified.  In March the number of COVID-related hospitalizations was 830 throughout the state, much lower that a total of nearly 3,000 reported in January.  The health officials of California’s Sonoma County reported that local COVID statistics are no longer reliable due to dramatic decreases in laboratory testing.  As of April 13^th there were 19 COVID-related hospitalizations in the country.  But local health officials have repeatedly pointed out that many of those cases are what is considered “incidental COVID-19,” where patients seeking care at a local hospital, for some other condition or procedure, also tested positive for the virus.

So with all of these caveats to be borne in mind, the daily statistics that I glean from various sources must be treated with caution.  Here they are nonetheless:  # of cases worldwide: 685,600,450; # of deaths worldwide: 6,842,351; # of cases U.S.: 106,464,679; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,158,158.  If COVID were to retain the death rate seen in the last week, it would be about twice as deadly as influenza in the U.S.  But this is much better than the rate it had when it first came out; in 2020 it claimed more than 16 times the number of people who succumbed to influenza.

At Manassas Gap – The Tennessee General Assembly remains unchanged – Flight of a Russian MP – Evening statistics

A brief entry today, for nothing much has happened either in the news or with regard to the pandemic.  I went with a few fellow-hikers on the Appalachian Trail from Manassas Gap to the shelter and beyond.  This area, although not quite as rich in wildflowers as Bull Run, still has a large variety, and it is much visited somewhat later in the season on account of the trillium, more numerous here than in any area in the country.  We actually found a few tentative blooms, although it is a bit early for them; normally they appear in late April and early May.  There were many other flowers in bloom, however, and, as in the Bull Run area, the spring beauties were exceptionally profuse and colorful. 

Afterwards we lunched at the Dark Horse Irish Pub, formerly known as the Griffin Tavern, which has a good deal of local fame, and deservedly so.  It was very warm today, but nonetheless we sat outside; even if it is somewhat warmer than usual for this time of year the humidity of the summer months has mercifully not set in yet.  We actually could do with a bit more rain; when I returned home I watered the plants in my garden, as they are somewhat worse for wear after a succession of dry days.

Justin Pearson is now reinstated in the Tennessee General Assembly, not much later than Justin Jones’ reinstatement.  Shelby County’s commissioners voted unanimously to restore him, just as Nashville’s city council representatives voted unanimously to restore Jones.  Politically the expulsion of these two men has accomplished nothing.

Sergei Zakharov, formerly a regional MP in Perm, a Russian city near the Urals mountain range, has fled to Germany after calling Putin a “petty dictator” who is ruining the country, particularly with his misguided policy of invading Ukraine.  He had served as MP for seven years and, until he publicly criticized Putin, was not expected to resign in the near future.  Zakharov actually spoke out against Putin before turning in his resignation and then, wisely remembering the fate that has overtaken Putin’s other critics, left the country before Putin had the opportunity to imprison him.  He acknowledged that even in Germany his life is at risk.  He would do well to avoid approaching windows too closely, especially those on higher stories. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 685,215,849; # of deaths worldwide: 6,839,471; # of cases U.S.: 106,402,060; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,157,346. 

On the Bull Run/Occoquan Trail – At the theatre again – My Fair Lady – A new Trump trial approaches – Reinstatement of Justin Jones – Evening statistics

I was unable to go with the Wanderbirds on the Bull Run/Occoquan Trail on Sunday, on account of a theater performance I saw in the evening.  It would have been impossible to meet with RK for dinner if I hiked all day and arrived at Vienna in the late afternoon.  I was sorry for this, since normally on this hike, which occurs annually, I take the option of hiking the trail in its entirety from Fountainhead to Bull Run Regional Park, about 18½ miles in all.  Happily, however, the Vigorous Hikers had set up a hike on the same trail today, beginning from the soccer field, going slightly over 10 miles to Bull Run Regional Park, and then returning to the soccer fields, so I cannot complain of getting short measure.

And what a hike it was!  One might have supposed that the goddess Flora presided over it.  The river banks were carpeted with bluebells, of course; that is normal for this time of year.  But there were many other varieties of flower as well:  bloodroot, bluets, rue anemone, cutleaf toothwort, white violets, blue violets, yellow violets.  I have never seen spring beauties in such profusion before, nor more vividly pink-and-white; they were every bit as magnificent as the bluebells.  And here and there a few spiderwort were blooming, and that is a flower that I never tire of contemplating:  the violet hue of its petals is so deeply saturated as to make the flowers that we call violets look almost grayish in comparison.  The day became warm but neither overly hot or humid, and the sky was clear, and in color somewhat deeper and more intense than the usual azure or cerulean that characterizes the clear spring days here. 

The performance that I saw on Sunday with RK was that of My Fair Lady at the National Theater, the second stage performance I’ve seen since the pandemic began.  The house was not very full.  I don’t know whether that was on account of that particular Sunday being Easter or the fact that it was the last performance to be held in the city (it ran in Washington only from the 6^th to the 9^th, after which it was moved to Broadway) or that fear of COVID is still discouraging people from live performances.  A combination of all three, in all probability.  There were notices stating the facemasks were “strongly encouraged”; even so, the majority of audience members were not wearing them.  The process of obtaining tickets was somewhat peculiar, at any rate to my old-fashioned notions:  instead of being given paper slips, as was the case of theater tickets in the past, I received a text on my cell phone that contained a link which, when opened, displayed QR codes onscreen that the ushers scanned in order to admit us to our seats.  I suppose that this method saves on expenses connected with printing tickets on colored paper, but what is done for theater patrons who do not possess cell phones?  There are a few such benighted beings left, even in the 21^st century.

It was extremely well mounted and staged, although RK and I were not altogether pleased with the performances of Madeline Powell (Eliza) and Jonathan Grunnert (Higgins).  Powell has a good singing voice and a fine presence, but she appeared to be laboring under a speech impediment (even when she was no longer speaking Cockney in the later scenes) that at times made it difficult to understand what she was saying or singing.  Grunnert was by no means deficient, but he lacked the sharp incisiveness that Rex Harrison had brought to the role when he originated it.  On the other hand, some of the other roles were delightfully rendered by John Adkinson (Pickering), Nathan Haltiwanger (Freddy), and Michael Hegarty (Doolittle).  The musical holds up remarkably well, nearly seventy years after its first appearance.  Every song in it is as brilliant as ever. 

The ending was left deliberately ambiguous as to whether Eliza actually returns to live with Higgins in his house, which pleased me.  In George Bernard Shaw’s Pygmalion, the play on which the libretto is based, it is fairly broadly hinted in the final scene that Eliza will not pair off with Higgins but will live independently.  Shaw even went to the trouble of writing a prose epilogue in which he said explicitly that Eliza winds up marrying Freddy and eventually comes to run a successful florist and greengrocer shop after their marriage.  In 1913, when the play first appeared, the idea of a clever managing woman who molds her own destiny and that of others no doubt seemed more unusual than it does now (although the concept was far from unknown then).  By the 1950s plenty of women had entered the marketplace; there was no need for the reassurance, supplied by the original musical, that women have no further ambition than the marriage altar. 

Speaking of Shaw’s epilogue, the following excerpt explaining why the prospect of a subordinate existence possesses no charms for the strong-minded Eliza has a good deal of relevance to today’s political scene:

“Eliza has no use for the foolish romantic tradition that all women love to be mastered.  ’When you go to women,’ says Nietzsche, ‘take your whip with you.’  Sensible despots have never confined that precaution to women: they have taken their whips with them when they have dealt with men, and been slavishly idealized by the men over whom they have flourished the whip much more than women.”

I would not exactly describe Donald Trump as sensible, but a despot he incontestably is, and he has wielded the whip on numerous occasions, with no apparent resentment from the numerous associates and followers he has used and has afterwards flung aside. 

His perplexities are increasing.  After the first deposition he has been required to give last week he will be forced to deal with a second lawsuit on April 25^th:  the one instituted by E. Jean Carroll, accusing him both of rape and of defamation of character.  Louis Kaplan, the judge who will preside over the case, addressed the defendant:  “Mr. Trump, I hate to sound inquisitive, but would you kindly inform me whether you intend to be present at the trial?”  Well, he didn’t put it in precisely those terms, but that was gist of it.  If Trump were to attend the case physically, as he did for the deposition for the charges brought against him by Alvin Bragg, special security arrangements would have to be made – so Kaplan’s desire for clarification on that point is understandable.  The judge has also pledged that the jurors will remain anonymous, in order to safeguard them after attacks from Trump’s supporters:  a by no means unnecessary precaution, given that Trump’s calls for violence against Juan Merchan, the judge in the case at which he deposed last week, have led to death threats against the judge and against his family members as well.

Justin Jones has been reinstated in the Tennessee Assembly General, a mere three days after his expulsion.  The city council of Nashville voted unanimously to restore him.  Supporters are currently underway to reinstate Justin Pearson as well.  The Republicans who ousted him have gained nothing from their maneuverings, except the enmity of the capital of the state they purport to represent. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 685,082,227; # of deaths worldwide: 6,838,374; # of cases U.S.: 106,385,356; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,157,194. 

Hiking on the AT – A Passover dinner – In Central Park – Expulsions from the Tennessee General Assembly – Afternoon statistics

I spent the past few days visiting my relatives in New York.  The occasion was a dinner for Passover at my cousin’s residence, but several of us spent time together doing other activities as well.  I stayed with my cousin, who lives in the Bronx, and for that reason I drove instead of taking the train, as I generally do when I stay with my aunt in Manhattan.  Since my cousin lives fairly close to various trailheads along the Appalachian Trail, I stopped at one on Rte. 17A in Bellvale on Wednesday before heading to his place.  This had the advantage of providing a hike along the way and also of approaching the Bronx from the north, which is much easier than driving to it via the George Washington Bridge.

The hike was a frustrating one in many ways.  Several miles of it were bare rock, not jagged and broken as in the AT in Pennsylvania, but still very wearing in the long run.  The sky was dull and overcast, and it was very cool, almost chilly, and damp as well.  Even though I was less than 200 miles north of the forest area close to my residence, the season had advanced much less in New York; there were no leaves on the trees and no wildflowers in bloom anywhere.  But it did provide extensive views of Greenwood Lake, picturesquely framed by the village of the same name.  It is a seven-mile long lake that straddles the border between New York and New Jersey, the very same lake that is featured in several paintings by Jaspar Cropsey. 

On Thursday we gathered for the dinner itself.  We did not recite the seder.  The seder is recited by most Jews on the first day of Passover but less frequently on the second day.  There were no children among our gathering, and the seder is a very child-oriented ceremony; it lacks something if no children are present.  It was simply a quiet family gathering without any special holiday observance, at which we conversed about our recent activities in the manner that close friends and relatives do when they haven’t met for several months, and of course we feasted. My cousin has been a professional chef and he still teaches cooking classes, so we ate very well indeed.

Then on Friday some of us got together in Manhattan and went along the paths of Central Park for a few hours.  Central Park is, ordinarily, not one of my favorite parks.  There is a disproportionate amount of paved path to trees and meadows and it is surrounded by skyscrapers that cast their long shadows over the park for most hours of the day.  However, my cousin-in-law is very knowledgeable about the park and was able to lead us along several paths I had not seen before.  The odd weather of the past few months – the warmer-than-usual February followed by a succession of cold nights in March – had a surprising effect on the wildflowers, which we saw in great profusion and in many varieties not often seen simultaneously.  It was odd to see hellebore, bluebells, and rhododendron all in bloom at the same time.  This difference in seasonal phases between New York and Washington, incidentally, received dramatic confirmation on my return home, upon crossing the Susquehanna River.  Up to that point the tree branches were still bare, while on the south bank of the Susquehanna and beyond the leaves were already unfurling.

After our explorations of the park we stopped at the bar where one of my younger cousins works as a bartender and we ate a light dinner there; after the feast of the preceding day we did not want an elaborate meal that evening.  Finally we converged at my aunt’s apartment and again conversed together and spoke of possible plans for future get-togethers.

The drive home on Saturday was uneventful, but even though I was able to use cruise control for most of it I felt fairly drained by the end of it, as I generally do after long drives along interstate highways.  Even when the traffic is relatively light one must be constantly vigilant in case a driver ahead on the road does an unexpected maneuver, and at no point is it advisable to relax completely. 

As the reactions towards Trump’s indictment have more or less stabilized, another news item has given rise to widespread indignation among some and rapturous applause among others.  The Tennessee General Assembly voted to expel three of its members for participating in a protest against gun violence.  The protestors did nothing illegal – they did not, for instance, organize an assault upon nearest available Capitol building, as certain protestors did on a similar occasion.  It is true that the legislators violated House rules against encouraging demonstrations and bringing a bullhorn and posters to the state House floor.  Still, while legislators can be reprimanded, censured, fined, stripped of committee assignments, and expelled for a wide variety of conduct by their fellow-legislators, such a sanction has rarely been applied in the past.  The Assembly expelled Justin Jones and Justin Pearson, but did not expel Gloria Johnson.  Jones and Pearson are black, while Johnson is a white woman; and most onlookers are not sufficiently credulous to believe that this is mere coincidence.  It is not clear that the expulsion will have any long-term effect, other than to diminish the creditability of those who initiated it. The Metro Council of Nashville has already called a special meeting for tomorrow to fill Jones’ seat.  Nashville Mayor John Cooper said that he believes that the council will re-elect Jones without hesitation.  Similarly, Shelby County Commissioner Mickell Lowery said Thursday night he plans to call a special meeting over Pearson’s expulsion, with the intention of restoring him to his position.

Since I will be out this evening and the hiatus in the journal is already long enough, I am posting this entry during the afternoon.  Today’s statistics as of 4:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 684,955,585; # of deaths worldwide: 6,837,710; # of cases U.S.: 106,363,748; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,156,898.  Although the rate of COVID infections and mortalities is declining we should not be entirely lulled; during the interval between this entry and the previous one nearly 145,000 Americans contracted the disease and over 1850 died from it.

Hikes in Sky Meadows, Cool Spring, and Lake Frederick – How social media has exacerbated rewriting of history – Finland and NATO – Donald Trump in New York – Evening statistics

More hiking, of course, over the weekend, at Sky Meadows on Saturday with LM and others, and at Cool Spring on Sunday with AD and RH leading the Wanderbirds hike.  Both of them had this peculiarity:  the weather at the beginning of the hike was rather cold and unpleasant, but as the morning wore on it became much dryer and more comfortable.  But that, of course, is not unusual for days in early spring.  The Sky Meadows hike was relatively brief, because we gathered after the hike to discuss our plans to traveling to the Lake District later in the month.  The Cool Spring hike was longer, nearly 12 miles, and part of it took place close to the bank of the Shenandoah River, where bluebells were in profuse bloom.  From there we went into the Rolling Ridge conservatory and took the Perimeter Trail that goes close to the ridgeline in the Blue Ridge Mountains.  There were numerous other flowers in bloom during this hike, especially spring beauties, which we saw i great numbers upon the return descent. 

And today I went with the Vigorous Hikers to Lake Frederick.  This trail is a perimeter around a lake created by a dam, and is eight miles in circumference.  We went around it twice, first going counter-clockwise and then, after lunch, going clockwise.  It is more challenging that it might appear at first.  Even though it does not ascend a great deal at once, there are several small ascents that total to about 900 feet in each direction.  The trail, in fact, is rarely completely flat anywhere.  Also in some places the trail surface slants towards the lake, so that one has to make an effort to keep one’s balance.  Since the temperature today went up to the 80s, it is unsurprising that the hike made me very thirsty:  my water bladder contains 100 ounces, which I had thoroughly drained by the end of the second loop, and I drank about a quart of lemonade once I returned home.  The trail is very scenic, with views of the lake everywhere and numerous birds flying about, including great blue herons and red-tailed hawks.  There were no bluebells on this hike, but spring beauties and violets were ubiquitous and some areas contained numerous bloodroot as well. 

I recently listened to a lecture about Margaret Beaufort, the mother of Henry VII.  I feel an interest in her not only for historical reasons but also because on a hiking tour in Wales I visited Pembroke Castle, where she lived as a child-bride and gave birth, at the age of 13, to the son who eventually became king of England.  The lecture was enlivened by an indignant discursion from the narrator about the attempts of various revisionists to pin the deaths of the Princes in the Tower on her, in defiance of all probability and a complete lack of evidence.  The lecturer’s indignation is of course thoroughly justified; the Richardians must be pretty desperate at this point to entertain such a theory.  The original proposition of this group that the perpetrator was Henry Tudor – despite a fourteen-year absence of the latter from England – is obviously unworkable even to the dullest comprehension.  But it goes to point up a more widespread issue, namely, the increasing amount of history being rewritten to suit the convenience of those doing the rewriting, often for no other purpose than that of entertainment.  This increase is one of the unintended consequences of social media, in which any theory, however baseless and absurd, can be posted online and in due time attract thousands of gullible subscribers. 

Finland is now a member of NATO, which means, among other things, that the border between Russia and NATO-member nations has doubled in length.  This development has ominous implications for the Russian military.  The weaknesses in the Russian army have been thoroughly exposed by Putin’s excursion into Ukraine, whereas the Finnish soldiers are not only substantial in number but well-trained and every bit as capable of enduring cold weather as Russian soldiers. Unlike most members of the European Union, Finland did not did not cut defense spending and investment after the Cold War.  It has a large reserve army and is investing heavily in new equipment, including dozens of U.S.-made F-35 fighter jets. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine was in part motivated by an attempt to intimidate NATO and to discourage its expansion towards Russia; it appears to have had exactly the opposite effect of what he intended. 

And what would one of these journal entries be without a mention of Donald Trump?  Something a good deal more cheerful than it actually is, in all probability – but that’s beside the point.  Where was I?  Oh, yes; Trump has been arraigned today and it must in all fairness be said that his responses when he was formally charged with 34 counts of felony were delivered with commendable brevity.  He simply pled “Not guilty” to the charges.  When he was asked whether he understood that he was entitled to “conflict-free counsel” (Joe Tacopina, Trump’s attorney, cannot be allowed to represent him in this case on account of a conflict of interest), he said “Yes” and “Thank you”’;  when asked whether f he understood that the court could proceed without him if he were to “become disruptive,” Trump answered, “I do”; when asked if he understood that the judge could impose a sentence without him present, if needed, Trump answered, “Yes” – a total of eight words in all.  Both Trump supporters and anti-Trump demonstrators congregated around the courthouse, but at no time did any sort of violence resembling the attempt on the Capitol erupt on this occasion – a circumstance that ordinarily would not give rise to comment at all, were it not for the fact that Trump had hinted earlier that if some sort of uproar along the lines of the January 6^th assault ensued, he would not take it amiss.  He has returned to Florida by now, and will no doubt speaking at much greater length than he permitted himself to do in the courtroom; but for now, at least, he has displayed an amount of restraint of which I never would have supposed him capable.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 684,181,115; # of deaths worldwide: 6,832,963; # of cases U.S.: 106,267,910; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,155,541.  The number of COVID-related deaths is slightly over 500 in the course of four days, a most welcome decline.

Hikes in Banshee Reeks and Broad Run Trails – Donald Trump indicted – Vanishing COVID states of emergency – Evening statistics

I’ve been doing a good deal of scouting lately.  On Wednesday I went to Banshee Reeks to verify the route I had laid out for the Capital Hiking Club there; the hike will take place towards the end of April.  It was just as well that I did so.  There are so many turns and junctions that several of them are not apparent on the park map.  Also, although there are over 20 miles of trails, the park is contained in a relatively small area and I had to verify whether the proposed route would be long enough.  In the end I modified it a bit to ensure that the shorter hike was at least seven miles.  It is lovely area, and significantly different from that of the mountain ranges that we habitually frequent, being located along Goose Creek, with riparian flora and fauna.  The park is beautifully maintained and trail names are posted at all junctions. 

Then on Thursday I returned to Broad Run, which I had scouted with the hike leaders the preceding week.  There wasn’t any actual need to do this, but I wanted to see for myself whether the bluebells were in flower; they were just beginning on the day that we scouted.  They are in full bloom now, not quite at their peak, but a magnificent spectacle nonetheless.  The leaders also rerouted the hike to eliminate a portion of road walking, and on trying it out I found that the hike mileage is about the same and the change is very much for the better.  It involves more there-and-back portions than the original route, but that is no disadvantage, for it enables the hikers to see the bluebells twice on the various paths that the route uses.  The temperature throughout the hike I did yesterday was in the mid-40s, but it was so sunny and windless that it felt much warmer.

Donald Trump has been indicted at last.  He is to be arraigned on Tuesday.  The indictment, unfortunately, is not one of those that I have been waiting for, with increasing exasperation at the delay:  namely, for his seditious attempts to interfere with the election results of Georgia in November, 2020, and his subsequent orchestration of the assault upon the Capitol in January, 2021.  Those cases are still pending.  I must continue to possess my soul in patience, it appears.  If fashion dictates to lawyers that when a felony is committed in 2020, the proper time to indict the perpetrator is 2025 or 2030, no eloquence of mine will teach them a nearer approach to punctuality. 

The indictment in question concerns the hush money he paid to Stephanie Clifford, AKA Stormy Daniels, an actress in pornographic films who claims that she had an affair with Trump and that he paid her hush money to keep quiet about it during Trump’s campaign in the 2016.  There seems to be little doubt about the money he paid to her, although, for what it is worth, Trump denies having had any kind of affair.  The payment made to Daniels is a violation of campaign finance laws and is also a falsification of business records, but neither of these is likely to involve prison sentences if Trump is found guilty.  They will most likely result in fines; and fines, as I have noted in past entries, will have little effect on Trump’s activities; his holdings are too large for any amount of judicial fines to reduce them substantially.  Nor does the indictment prevent him from pursuing his campaign for the 2024 election. 

Still, it is progress of a sort.  The indictment may prod the participants of other investigations to bring charges against him as well, and in any case he now is handicapped by being the first man who occupied Presidential office to be indicted of criminal charges, a factor that one hopes will hinder him in future political undertakings.  I say “one hopes” because the Republican Party has shown no signs of distancing themselves from their brazen idol even now.  On the contrary, the leaders have erupted in fury upon hearing news of the indictment – including Ron DeSantis, the man who stands to benefit the most by it.  Trump is his greatest rival in his bid for the Presidential nomination; yet he was among the first to denounce Alvin Bragg, the prosecuting attorney, and he added that the state government of Florida would play no role in extraditing Trump to New York.  Trump himself has expressed bewilderment at this reaction of sympathy from his fellow Party members.  “It’s the craziest thing,” he said Saturday at his rally in Waco, Texas. “I got bad publicity and my poll numbers have gone through the roof. Would you explain this to me?”  If only one could!

Los Angeles County, the most populous county in the U.S., has formerly ended its declaration of a state of emergency on account of COVID.  The state of emergency is already over in California generally, but there are a few isolated areas that have localized state of emergency declarations.  Hollywood’s is still in force, although it is scheduled to end on May 12^th – just one day after the national state of emergency is to be lifted.  As in other parts of the country, the rate of COVID infection has been steadily declining.  Over the last nine months, there has been a 94% decrease in demand for in-person testing at DHS testing centers.  Various localized states of emergency remain in effect.  New Jersey, for instance, still has an active COVID state of emergency in place, even though the state’s public health emergency was lifted in 2021.  The expiration date for the federal state of emergency is still set for May 11^th, less than six weeks from now.

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 683,930,289; # of deaths worldwide: 6,831,536; # of cases U.S.: 106,218,929; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,155,038.  

Hikes on Kennedy Peak and in the Hazel Mountain area – French insouciance during the rioting – Dissent in Russia – Russian economic woes – Evening statistics

On Sunday FH and I led the Kennedy Peak hike that we had scouted earlier.  When we scouted the hike the day had been cool and misty, and the chill wind blowing at Kennedy Peak did not encourage us to linger.  Sunday was very different, warm without being oppressively hot, and beautifully clear.  This meant that others besides ourselves would be using the same hike route, and there were a good deal many more people on the trails than the day that we scouted it.  But everyone enjoyed themselves, and indeed it is one of the most rewarding hikes in the area, with the views from the west side of the Shenandoah Valley looking over the river where it bends and curves into numerous oxbows.  The trees were still bare of leaves on the upper elevation, but the meadows below were richly green and many wildflowers were blossoming.

Today I went with the Vigorous Hikers on a route from Nicholson Hollow to the Hazel Mountain area, which was 16 miles and involved about 4000 feet of elevation gain; yet it seemed less strenuous than the Roller Coaster hike of two weeks ago, even though the elevation gain was slightly greater today.  But it had a good deal less scree on the trails, so there were not as many problems about footing as on the other hike.  The Hazel Mountain area is an attractive one, although it is not rich in wildflowers; much of the forest in this region is old forest, predominantly deciduous (although there are belts of pine here and there).  This was perhaps the best day for it; the weather was cool but not chilly, just right for a hike that involves so much ascent, some of it quite steep.  The leaves were just beginning to form today.  Not many people attended this hike, and I don’t know why:  one couldn’t ask for better hiking conditions and the drive to the hike is not especially long.

Much of the news worth relating is coming from France at this point.  The French are rioting in opposition to Macron’s determination to raise the retirement age from 62 to 64, since the rate at which retirees are receiving income from the government is currently not sustainable.  Indeed, I have often wondered how French industries sustain themselves at all.  I can remember when working on a project for NATO, the American, British, and Dutch participants would work overtime as a matter of course.  The French would not – they could not, in fact, for their union rules forbade them from working more than 39 hours per week.  The French, I am bound to say, infuse even their insurrections with a certain amount of élan that our compatriots notably lack.  There is one interesting piece of footage from Bordeaux that shows a pair of diners placidly sitting outside of a café and savoring their glasses of wine, daintily sniffing the wine’s bouquet – and completely oblivious, apparently, to the fact that just behind them the rioters have set the street on fire. 

As repressive as Russia has been in the past, the crackdown on dissent is becoming even more draconian.  Some months ago Maria Moskalyov, a 13-year old student, drew an antiwar picture at her school that that depicted missiles flying over a Russian flag at a woman and child and said, “Glory to Ukraine.”  The apartment of Alexei Moskalyov, her father, was thereupon raided in December and a criminal case was opened against him this month. He was put under house arrest and his daughter was placed into the orphanage.  (The girl’s mother left the family when Maria was three years old and has started a new family of her own in another city; she seems to have no interest in her daughter by her first marriage.)  Today a Russian court convicted him of making social media posts critical of the war in Ukraine and sentenced him to two years in prison.  Knowing how ruthless the regime is, Moskalyov was sufficiently astute to free himself of the bracelet that had been clamped on his wrist to track his movements and to flee the area to avoid arrest.  He is currently at large.  His lawyer visited the orphanage afterwards, but he was not allowed to see Maria.  He was allowed, however, to photograph a letter that she wrote to her father, which ended with, “Daddy, you’re my hero.”

Putin is in fact having difficulties.  Initially the war against Ukraine caused prices of oil and natural gas to surge around the world.  For a time, that meant that Russia could increase its own costs of oil and gas, making a more significant profit.  But that is no longer the case.  NATO has held firm and the sanctions on Russia products are taking their toll.  Russian economy is now entering a long-term regression, according to Alexander Prokopenko, a former Russian Central Bank official who fled Russia after the invasion.  The ruble is down over 20% against the dollar in the past five months. The military draft has resulted in over 22,000 Russians fleeing to the United States. The draft also means that young people are being pulled from the labor force and sent to war, which is starting to impact Russian businesses.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 683,455,468; # of deaths worldwide: 6,827,921; # of cases U.S.: 106,113,981; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,153,880.  

A canceled hike – Working in the garden – Evening statistics

We were obliged to cancel the Capital Hiking Club hike today because it was scheduled for the Camp Rapidan area, which has been temporarily closed off on account of a recent wildfire.  This, however, is to be borne with resignation, for it rained steadily most of yesterday and the morning of today, and in all probability it would not have been enjoyable.  I will be leading the Kennedy Peak hike with the Wanderbirds tomorrow, when fair weather is predicted.  The paths will be muddy and slippery as a result of the recent rain, but there will be at least a little time for the water to drain off and the puddles to recede slightly.

In the meantime I worked on the garden at home today.  I am no expert gardener but I managed to dig up some old bulbs that no longer produce flowers, and I planted some pansies and violas in their stead, and I weeded the plots a bit, and I distributed mulch on their surfaces.  It is not a bad time to work on the garden just after a rainstorm clears; it is easier to dig and loosen the soil when it is soft and wet.  The garden looks quite colorful now,

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 682,970,802; # of deaths worldwide: 6,823,199; # of cases U.S.: 106,042,628; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,152,582.   COVID rates continue to decline, happily.  In Virginia the 7-day COVID positivity rate has gone down by 5.9% and new cases have dropped 18% from last week.

Dining in downtown Washington – Scouting the Bluebell hike – Investigation of Tiktok – An unlucky choice of getaway car – Evening statistics

I had fallen behindhand in working out the maps and hiking directions for Wanderbirds and CHC hikes scheduled for April, so I spent much of yesterday trying to complete these. In the late afternoon I went to the Tidal Basin to see the cherry blossoms, which are almost at their peak; and since I was there on a weekday, it was less crowded than it would have been on a Saturday or Sunday.  From there I went on to a restaurant in the Shaw district, where I met up with GT – the “grand old man of hiking,” as I call him, for he remains an avid hiker even though he is well into his nineties – and his wife BH and four others whom I know from the Vigorous Hikers.  The Convivial, where we dined, is elegant without being stiflingly formal and its prices are surprisingly reasonable for such an upscale menu.  It was a wonderful evening, as we all ate the rich food and drank the fine wines that accompanied the dishes, and we conversed animatedly among ourselves.  Our topics, as may be imagined, were concerned with outdoor matters:  the status of various trails, the best places to view certain varieties of wildflowers, the varieties of edible mushrooms available in the area, various trips we had planned in the upcoming months for hiking and biking,, the techniques to use for kayaking and canoeing and whitewater rafting.  Towards political topics (to which – alas! – I must revert to presently) we gave scarcely a passing mention, and that is perhaps not unusual in a Washington colloquy, for we are so saturated here with comings and goings of politicians that most of us are – not to put too fine a point on it – sick to death of the subject.

Today I met with FH and RR to scout the Broad Run hike that is scheduled for a week from Saturday.  To my pleased surprise, the bluebells are just beginning to bud, which means that they will be in flower by the day that the hike is scheduled and will not, as I had originally feared, be past their prime when it takes place.  The recent cold evenings have delayed their growth to some extent, and the season of their bloom will be more typical this year than I expected.  The weather was cool and windy when we began but it warmed up considerably, and the three of us had a thoroughly enjoyable time strolling along the trails and admiring the wildflowers.  We saw many spring beauties and bloodroot in addition to the bluebells, and it seems likely that the trout lilies will be blooming soon in the area as well.  Unfortunately I will not be able to attend the hike on the day that is scheduled for the club, having another engagement; but I may saunter there some time in the coming week. 

TikTok is currently undergoing a Congressional investigation for its ties to China.  During this investigation Representative Richard Hudson, from North Carolina, displayed a remarkable ignorance about Wifi, a fairly basic concept in the field of network engineering.  His first question to Shou Zi Chew, the TikTok CEO, was “Mr. Chew, does TikTok access the home Wifi network?”  That’s rather like asking whether a car’s fuel task needs to be filled with gasoline before it can be driven or whether a house needs connection to a source of electricity for its lights to be turned on. 

It is true that one variety of automobile does not use gas at all, which, as two would-be robbers discovered, is not necessarily an advantage. Two thieves stole about $8000 worth of gaming systems at a store in Gwinnett County, GA, and then proceeded to drive off in a Tesla as their escape vehicle.  However, the car had already been driven many miles and in the process of their flight the drivers discovered that its battery was in need of recharging. Police found them just 15 minutes down the road from the theft scene, waiting for their Model X getaway car to top up at a location in Duluth, the nearest location that had charging stations. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 682,970,802; # of deaths worldwide: 6,823,199; # of cases U.S.: 106,042,628; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,152,582.   

The first hike of spring – Unpopularity of Mike Pence – Evening statistics

Yesterday RS was unable to come to my place, and in truth I was not sorry for the opportunity to regroup a bit after three consecutive days of hiking.  Today, however, I went with the Vigorous Hikers on a hike suitable for ushering in the spring season, going to Caledonia State Park and doing a circuit of 18 miles.  I have been to Caledonia many times in the past, but this was the first time I was on the trails east of Rte. 233, and thus part of the hike was new to me.  The remainder, which went along the Beaver and Rocky Knob Trails, I had done before, but going in the opposite direction, so in a sense that part of the hike was new to me as well.  The weather could not have been better:  it was cold when we began, but it warmed up rapidly, and the sky, in contrast to the somewhat clouded conditions at lower elevations, was perfectly clear.  We came across a group of hikers going along the Beaver Trail and continuing around the reservoir; but outside of that, we encountered no one until we reached Quarry Gap.  Even there, there were surprisingly few people on the AT.  The shelter remains as elegant as ever.  I felt completely energized by the end of the hike, not exhausted as I was last week on the group’s hike of comparable distance – though to be sure its elevation gain was greater, nearly 4000 feet as opposed to 2770.  At one point some members of the group commented that we could have taken a clockwise route instead of a counterclockwise one, which would have allowed us to lunch alongside the beautiful Long Pine Run reservoir.  Nonetheless I thought that our lunch spot at the Milesburn Cabin was thoroughly comfortable, situated amid rhododendron thickets, with a stream rippling nearby with the delightful sound of its plashing, and dotted with various wildflowers, including some large purple crocus that are blooming somewhat later here than done in the DC metro area. 

It’s difficult to concentrate on the headlines after such a glorious experience, and indeed I do not see much of new development.  The only item that caught my attention was a headline that said:  “Nobody likes Mike Pence.”  Is this really news?  It has seemed fairly obvious to me for a long time.  Pence’s consistent hedging of bets by refusing either to align himself with Trump openly or to criticize Trump has alienated both Trump supporters and Trump opponents.  At all events, comments from people interviewed about his presidential ambitions ran along the lines of “it’s over, it’s retirement time” and “he’s only gonna get the vote from his family, and I’m not even sure if they like him.”

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 682,687,925; # of deaths worldwide: 6,820,990; # of cases U.S.: 105,986,345; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,151,851.  There have been less than 1,000 deaths from COVID today worldwide, if the statistics are to be believed.  The U.S. now ranks 59^th among nations for COVID infections, but, alas, 15^th for mortality rate.

Effects of the pandemic, from a three-year perspective – An unexpected side effect of COVID, or so it is alleged – Evening statistics

Having devoted the greater part of recent entries to personal matters and to hiking in particular, I turn my attention to the effects of the pandemic at large, now that it seems to be receding.  This is inspired in part by a publication by AARP received recently, which discussed the long-term results of the COVID pandemic.

Not all of them are bad.  Tele-commuting, which increased enormously after the pandemic set in, is here to stay; it is estimated that the number of people physically commuting to offices has been reduced by a third.  This means many workers are spending more time in the communities where they reside and also that they are moving to places whose cost of living is lower.  As a result, small towns, which had been declining in earlier years, are becoming revitalized.  Again, telehealth sessions have become more common, resulting in less need for waiting in an office for a physician appointment. 

Rather curiously, seniors have fared better than middle-aged and young people psychologically.  I myself have recorded how I endeavored to maintain social relationships even while the pandemic was at its height.  Although it is obvious that people in their sixties and seventies could not all hike together dozens of miles each month with like-minded friends, they used other means to stay in touch with their relatives and acquaintances.  Members of later generations have social ties of much shorter duration and in addition have had less leisure time than those who have retired to organize meetings with their friends. 

People have been getting out of doors more often.  I have encountered many younger people on the trails than before, in many cases taking their children and even infants with them.  The divorce rate has decreased and relationships appear to have become more stable.  Families with multiple generations under one roof have done especially well:  nearly 80% of these report have better interactions with their relatives and children. 

Although staffing remains an issue, our traditional leisure activities have returned in full force.  Weddings have jumped up from 2.1 million in 2019 to 2.5 million in 2022, an increase of 19%.  Travel has resumed, including cruise lines.  I have been critical of the sports industries in general, but it must be admitted that the dedication of professional players who quarantined together, tested constantly, and played on many occasions in nearly empty arenas have preserved a valuable source of entertainment that is now bringing pleasure to hundreds of thousands.  And the process of viewing them has improved;  ticketing has become paperless, and refreshments are ordered in advance through various apps and screens, making attendance in a stadium a less chaotic experience.

Of course there are downsides as well.  Children born in 2016 or after appear to be slower to develop.  Infants born during the pandemic speak much less than their pre-pandemic counterparts.  Babies learn in part by watching mouths move, so the practice of wear facemasks is almost certainly affecting their verbal processing.  Then, too, many of them have been isolated in their earliest years by home-schooling.  Even though the older generation has done better than younger ones, not all of its members have weathered the crisis triumphantly:  the amount of substance abuse among older adults has increased, in the cases of alcohol-related and opioid-related deaths.  People of all ages are also deferring routine medical checkups such as colonoscopies and mammograms, leading to delayed discoveries of cancers, at a stage when they are more difficult to treat. 

On a personal level, in some ways I am in line with these social trends and in some cases I am bucking them.  My behavior in attempting to maintain contact with friends and relatives during the time such an attempt required a special effort appears to be typical for someone in my age group.  As travel restrictions lifted, I have taken various airplane flights to numerous locations, including international flights. On the other hand, I have done less online shopping than most of my compatriots, particularly with respect to groceries, which I prefer to select in person.  And I have been so atavistic in my behavior as actually to tender cash for such transactions on occasion.  I am doggedly clinging to facemasks, at any rate during public transit and excursions to stores and other places with crowds.  I certainly have been doing a good deal of physical activity, but it doesn’t seem to me that the pandemic is directly responsible for it; I would have taken to the trails in any case.  I do not see that I am less active now that the pandemic is receding. 

If a certain Department of State employee is to be believed, COVID has one side effect that no one could have predicted.  Dean Cheves, aged 63, has recently been convicted of paying two girls in Manila, aged 15 and 16, about $60 to film him as he engaged in sexual acts with them.  In his defense he pleaded that he contracted COVID in December 2020, becoming so ill that he thought that he was at death’s door, and that as a result his behavior during that time became “uncharacteristic.”  This amazing diagnosis that COVID can transform someone into a sexual predator, however, is unconfirmed by medical science; and prosecutors accordingly took a much harsher view of his offenses, noting that the age of consent in the Philippines is 18 and that moreover Cheves had repeatedly boasted to one of his victims that he had previously abused a 14-year-old in Brazil, taking her to a “sex motel” and recording the rape – a hint, perhaps, that his behavior in such matters was less uncharacteristic than he claimed.  At all events, they requested that the judge deliver a “significant sentence” along with a lifetime of supervised release.  The judge sentenced him to 15 years in prison, the mandatory minimum, and moreover ordered him to pay thousands of dollars to his victims.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 682,578,816; # of deaths worldwide: 6,820,145; # of cases U.S.: 105, 977,097; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,151,732.

Hiking at Seven Bends – Trump’s new incitement to violent demonstrations – Evening statstics

Another excellent hike today, this time with the Wanderbirds at Seven Bends State Park, situated along the North Fork of the Shenandoah River.  We went up several trails today, some of them quite steep, to the ridgeline of the Massanuttens and then went over 2½ miles further to an impressive overlook of the valley between Massanutten and Great North Mountain, with a bird’s-eye view of the town of Woodstock.  The weather was cold but clear, so that it felt much warmer than the temperature would indicate.  Nor was it not especially windy except at the overlook itself, which faces west and therefore tends to be more exposed to gales.  This hike was a carpool hike, as the next two hikes will be, but we are resuming bus hikes during the second week of April.

I have been relatively inactive outside of the days that I’ve hiked with the clubs, for which the weather is in part responsible. But this week is making up for the lack, thanks to scouting responsibilities.  I have hiked three consecutive days and will be hiking Monday and Tuesday as well, and I will be leading hikes for both Saturday and Sunday next weekend.  It has helped matters that I have not had to drive much; FH drove her car from my place to the trailhead on Friday; Saturday was a bus hike; and LH drove me from Vienna Metro to the trailhead today.  It is so much easier when there is no long drive to undertake after the hike is over!

Donald Trump announced yesterday that he expects to be arrested on Tuesday.  Greatly desirable as such an event would be, it is not at all likely, since he has not even been formally accused in any of the cases pending against him, let alone brought to trial.  I take this to be yet another conceit of his intended to rouse his rabble followers to a demonstration of violence similar to that of the raid on the Capitol.  It is possible that such followers may take warning from the fate that the January 6^th rioters are currently undergoing, with one after another being fined and imprisoned.  But such a supposition is put forward with more hope than confidence.  Long before he even thought of entering politics, Trump had developed a reputation for skullduggery of the most sordid description, consistently cheating his business associates of profits and his contractors and employees of their wages.  Yet despite his long history of being thoroughly unreliable in financial matters, people persisted in entering business deals with him and applied for employment for every one of his mismanaged operations.  It is not to be expected that his followers will be any shrewder in political matters than in financial ones.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 682,466,312; # of deaths worldwide: 6,819,419; # of cases U.S.: 105,921,589; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,151,282.

From Skyland to Thornton Gap – After-hike festivities – Another over-indulged child rioter – Evening statistics

A splendid hike today with the Capital Hiking Club, led by MM, who has already been mentioned in this journal during the misadventure some months ago on the Appalachian Trail south of Skyland, when he discerned two hikers undergoing great difficulties and guided them to Skyline Drive, and then proceeded to jog seven miles on the road to the bus in order to instruct the driver to drive back to them and transport them to the endpoint.  His jogging abilities were very much in evidence today:  during the first half of the hike he literally ran along the descents.  It was quite an effort to keep up with him.  Of course I was not obligated to run after him directly and I could easily have dropped behind to walk on the trail at my own pace, but run after him I did – out of vanity, I suppose.  It was a glorious day, somewhat cold to be sure, but not frigid, and much more sunny than the forecast led me to expect.  This hike consisted of hiking the AT from Skyland to Thornton Gap, with a side trip to Mary’s Rock.  There we had untrammeled views of the valley spreading out more than two thousand feet beneath us and of Skyline Drive weaving along the mountain range. 

The last 1¾ miles is a long and rocky descent to the Thornton Gap parking area.  I was going at that point with someone hiking with us for the first time, but who lived in New Mexico until recently and has had extensive experience in hiking and skiing, including ascending several 14-ers in Colorado and several sections of the Via Ferrata in Italy.  Nevertheless even she said after we completed this portion of the hike that the descent was “brutal.”  But we made good time, starting at 10:20 and arriving at the parking area before 1:10; the distance is about 9½ miles, with 1550 feet of elevation gain.

Afterwards we went to the Copper Fox Distillery in Sperryville.  CHC has previously visited this distillery after a hike, although the last time it did so was several years ago, well before the pandemic started.  During that last visit, we took a tour of the facility, which, even though I care little for whisky, I quite enjoyed.  I was particularly taken with the cats who were lying about in the granary; their presence discourages the invasion of rodents who would otherwise be swarming over all of the grain strewn on the floor of the barn.  No tour was available on this occasion, but we ordered drinks and sat outside, where the temperature was somewhat warmer at this lower elevation, and conversed among ourselves as we sipped our drinks and admired the sunlight sparkling on the swift-moving little stream of the Thornton River. 

Among the hikers was LE, whom I had not seen for some time, and we discussed current affairs, agreeing that the news programs of late have become too depressing to watch for any appreciable amount of time.  From their numerous stories of incompetence, corruption, and general national malaise I will select only one:

Yet another drama related to the January 6^th riot was played out in the courtrooms today when Amy Bilyard protested mightily upon hearing Judge Reggie Wilton sentenced her 21-year old son Aiden to 40 months in prison for assaulting police with a deadly or dangerous weapon when he sprayed Capitol officers with a pepper gel.  Ms. Bilyard of course declared that her beloved Little Lord Fauntleroy was “warm, intelligent, and Kind,” and such a trifling lapse on his part should have been dismissed with a reaction something like the following:  “You shouldn’t have done that.  Oh, well, never mind.”  I’m happy to report that Judge Wilton stood his ground, saying that the young man was old enough to know that assaulting police while they were fighting for their lives was criminal.  He also noted the Bilyard’s subsequent flight to North Carolina immediately the riot ended showed that he was aware of the potential penalties for his actions and was taking steps to evade them.  Aiden Bilyard’s photograph, incidentally, gives a rather curious impression:  he resembles the somewhat androgynous youths painted by Botticelli. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 682,428,457; # of deaths worldwide: 6,818,967; # of cases U.S.: 105, 822,264; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,151,259.

Windy days – Hiking to Kennedy Peak – Homage to an artist – Our unreliable memories – Why the journal was written – Differences in the aftermath of the riot between the participants and the main perpetrator – Evening statistics

“Rough winds do shake the buds of May.”  And the buds of March as well, as it turns out.  It has been blustery, off and on, for the last several days, but the winds increased in power Tuesday, gusting to 50 miles per hour in some places, and Wednesday was even worse.  I had arranged with RS to hike together that day, but we had to postpone it; it was so windy in his area that it was too dangerous for him to drive any significant distance.  Later in the afternoon the wind died down and it became quiescent on the following days.

I scouted the Kennedy Peak hike with FH today, since we are to lead it on the 26^th.  It is curious how the trails shape up in memory.  I had had the impression that the Stephens Trail, which comprises the main part of the ascent, as being quite challenging, but it is fairly level for about three-quarters of its length and the remaining portion is moderate.  Again I remembered the descent from Kennedy Peak as being rocky in the extreme, but it is not:  it is rocky in some places, to be sure, and one must take care about footing during these areas, but these are neither long or numerous.  I daresay some of my recent experiences, such as the boulder fields of the Appalachian Trail in Pennsylvania, made such a trail seem like a trifle in comparison.  The hike is slightly over 9 miles and we completed it in just over 3 hours, including a break for lunch, which is very good time.  On the way back we noticed daffodils along the grassplots that run beside I-66, in greater profusion this season than I have seen in previous years.

FH told me of an episode that reflects well upon the art scene of Washington.  Yesterday evening on the Spanish Steps, a soprano and a tenor performed a five-minute opera especially commissioned on behalf of Robert Darling, who has had a long and distinguished career as a director and a set designer for theaters.  I myself have seen some of his sets (including an especially imaginative one of The Winter’s Tale at the Folger).  He is, regrettably, losing his health and has recently become blind in addition.  FH told me that he and his wife have put up their house for sale and are planning to live in a farm in rural Pennsylvania; which reminded me of the discussion I and my fellow-hikers of the Vigorous Hikers earlier this week about the solitary house espied from Raven Rocks – such retreats certainly are beautiful in fair weather, but are inconvenient at best and are downright dangerous under the current circumstances, for his wife as well as he is in declining health.  His wife confided to FH that she now was entertaining doubts about this decision, but that they had committed themselves to this course and had no choice but to adhere to it.

In connection with this hiking experience that demonstrated the unreliability of memory – DC sent me a link to a recent article in the Washington Post that discussed how the populace as a whole has already lost memories of what life was like during the pandemic at its height.  At all times some loss of memory of events immediately after they happen is inevitable, but in the case of COVID, the sheer amount of information to be processed (mandates, social distancing guidelines, the seemingly endless number of variants and sub-variants, etc.) made it impossible for most people to remember all that we as a nation have undergone.  “Even for such salient emotional events and salient life-threatening events,” said Suparna Rajaram, psychology professor who researches the social transmission of memory at Stony Brook University, “that the more you have of it, the more you will have trouble capturing all of them.”  This is not, of course, an especially novel discovery.  Marcel Proust says much the same thing in Remembrance of Things Past.  Then, too, many simply do not wish to remember such troubling times.  The influenza epidemic in the early years of the 20^th century infected a third of the world’s population and killed 50 million people, statistics that make those of COVID seem almost benign in comparison.  Yet it faded from consciousness fairly rapidly.  “Will the COVID-19 pandemic have the same fate and memory?” Rajaram said. “I think to the extent that the past is a predictor of the future, the answer is yes.”

At all events, that has been my main reason for initiating and maintaining the journal.  I knew in advance that my powers of memory were not be relied upon.  Sooner or later my personal impressions of the pandemic must and will fade.  But they can be recalled now whenever I consult my notes from the past; and I believe this ability to recall them to be of importance.  Perhaps that is merely egotism on my part.

Of course the journal of any single person can provide only a small sampling of the events and of people’s reactions to them.  As I have repeatedly stressed in my entries, my experiences during this time were significantly less stressful than those of the majority of others:  no substantive health issues, no loss of close relatives or friends to the disease, secure financial conditions, a social network that provided support even during the days when isolation was at its most intense.  I hope other people have been keeping notes in some odd corners of our nation, people who have been affected more directly by the disease.  But it may well be that such an effort is proportionately too painful for those people best qualified by their experiences to tell us just how devastating the pandemic proved to be.

From Through the Looking Glass, when Alice asks the Knight whether the song he is preparing to sing for her is long:

“‘It’s long,’ said the Knight, ‘but it’s very beautiful.  Everybody that hears me sing it – either it brings tears into their eyes, or else –‘

“‘Or else what?’ said Alice, for the Knight had made a sudden pause.

“‘Or else it doesn’t, you know.’”

And so it is with the participants of the January 6^th riots.  Either the remorse they undergo for their treason brings tears into their eyes,

– as in the case of one Robert Palmer, who wept repeatedly when he pleaded guilty today to attacking Capitol Police with a fire extinguisher at the Capitol riot while dressed in a red, white, and blue Trump jacket, with his lawyer naturally citing these tears as evidence of the regret he feels in hopes of inducing the judge to mitigate the upcoming sentence –

or else it doesn’t, you know: 

“Patriotic Americans are being prosecuted for peacefully protesting a stolen election.  Let them go! They were convicted, or are awaiting trial, based on a giant lie, a radical left con job.”  Need I say that the speaker is none other than Donald Trump?

But although the tinsel-winged butterflies who allowed Trump to use them as his instruments have been have been repeatedly broken on the wheel by our courts, he himself remains unscathed.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 682,345,663; # of deaths worldwide: 6,818,554; # of cases U.S.: 105,810,271; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,151,166.

Circumstances when name changes have their uses – On the Appalachian Trail – The disadvantages of picturesque house settings – A tragedy from the time of COVID’s early phase – Prisoners deployed in the Ukrainian war – Evening statistics

I have complained about the recent mania for changes of names of streets, buildings, etc., when they are nothing but a futile gesture but that does not mean that I would have all names retained when better ones are available.  Recently a school in our neighborhood named for Sidney Lanier has been renamed in honor of Katherine Johnson.  Lanier was, irrespective of his Confederate associations, quite a minor poet, whose works are read now only by academics.  The interest of his productions is mainly historical rather than intrinsic, since he was writing at a time when American poetry was in its infancy.  But few persons could read his poetry with pleasure today if they were unaware of the identity of its author.  Whereas Katherine Johnson was one of the pivotal mathematicians of the 20^th century, whose participation in the Apollo project was specifically requested by John Glenn, to the extent of his saying that he would not venture in the mission that was to make him the first American to orbit in space unless he had her expertise and accuracy in calculations to provide him with a guarantee of his safety.  It seems fairly obvious that Johnson is by far more significant figure of the two.  I have no objection to changing the name of a school or a street when such a change is a clear gain.

A difficult hike today! – going along the Appalachian Trail from Snickers Gap to the boardwalk about 1½ miles north of the Blackburn Trail Center and back again.  The first four miles, which comprise the northern end of the so-called Roller Coaster, are extremely rocky and in some areas reminiscent of the trail in Northern Pennsylvania at its worst.  And the weather was not very cooperative – not wet, indeed, but cold and blustery, especially in the afternoon.  But we had some good fortune when we lunched outside the Blackburn Trail Center, when the wind moderated and the clouds parted temporarily.  In addition, the bird’s-eye views of Winchester Valley from Raven Rocks are as splendid as ever and although there were numerous clouds in the sky the sun managed to shine through them. 

It was while contemplating the various summits of the range on the other side of the valley that we noticed one house perched in the mountains in glorious isolation, commanding extensive views from its terrace.  One of the hikers commented on how enviable such a house location must be; to which I responded that such residences look idyllic under fair weather but that they are far from convenient for the purposes of daily tasks such as shopping for groceries and other necessities, and that during emergencies such as sudden illness the residents would have to pray for a dearth of rain or snow, which have the potential of making roads in such areas impassable.  After some discussion, the others agreed.  In this connection MW mentioned one couple of his acquaintance who moved into just such a location, only to move back barely a year later to a more urban setting as he and his wife began to suffer from deteriorating health and symptoms that required continual medical treatment.

Alas, medical safety in urban areas can be precarious as well.  The Silverado Beverly Place, an assisted-living facility in Los Angeles County, has just been charged with elder endangerment (which is a felony) after thirteen residents and one nurse died there from a COVID outbreak.  A new resident was admitted on March 19, 2020, without first being tested for COVID or quarantined for 14 days prior to admission, as required by California health protocols, even though the patient had just arrived from a “hotspot” in New York. The new patient began showing COVID symptoms a day after arrival and tested positive for the virus that evening.  Eventually sixty residents and forty-five employees at the facility contracted the disease.  One should remember, even in these days when the virus has to a great extent been brought under control as a result of the vaccines, the mortality rate of COVID in its early phases before condemning what some critics call our national “over-reaction.”

Russia appears to be running out of men to send to the war in Ukraine.  There are reports of a train in the Donetsk region transporting prisoners to the battlefields, women as well as men.  Several thousand male prisoners have been recruited, with promises of reduced sentences or even pardons if they acquit themselves well (and also, obviously, if they survive the battles in which they participate).  It is estimated that about 100 women prisoners have been recruited, chiefly to work as farm laborers in nearby greenhouses and cowsheds to supply the army with food.  There will probably be more to come. Such a move is not likely go over well with the Russians generally, since on the whole they disapprove of women serving in the military.  Many women sought to join ranks in the 2010s, but they were not permitted in frontline combat roles, barred from holding ranks higher than colonel, and denied jobs such as driver, mechanic, sniper, or gunner.  During a 2020 poll conducted by the state-run Russian Public Opinion Research Centre, 63% of Russians said they didn’t want a daughter of theirs to join the military and 42% said that “the army is not a woman’s business, the army is for men.” 

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 681,761,350; # of deaths worldwide: 6,813,307; # of cases U.S.: 105, 665,981; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,149,253.

An explanation of the decreasing frequency of journal entries – Trump still dominates the GOP, despite their struggles – Some manifestations of anti-Confederate sentiment – The progress of spring – A visit to the theatre – Evening statistics

When I began the journal, writing a daily entry was almost a matter of course.  Every day seemed to bring in some new development:  generally an unfortunate one, to be sure, but at any rate it was something worth recording and it provided an element of variety.  Now, in our so-called recovery phase, there is less to record, at least with respect to the COVID virus.  Are all recovery periods from epidemics as long and drawn-out as this one, I wonder?  There are many accounts of plagues and epidemics throughout history, but accounts of the transition from these back to normality are much harder to track down. 

Yes, various events have occurred during the interval between this entry and the previous one:  various hikes, of course – scouting for a hike in the Camp Rapidan area that I will be leading for CHC at the end of the month, leading a loop from Colvin Mill via Lake Fairfax and the Cross-County Trail.  Various legal experts continue to predict dire consequences for Donald Trump as a result of various criminal investigations (the Manhattan hush money probe, the Fulton County investigation into attempted election fraud, the January 6^th community investigation, the investigation about the classified documents Trump stored in his private residence).  These investigations having taken months to complete and the experts have been maintaining the aforesaid predictions for months on end, without seeing a single one of them come to pass.  The GOP is becoming increasingly jittery about espousing Trump, especially since he has recently described the January 6^th rioters as “patriots” – a statement that has reinforced the decline in his approval rating among the populace at large.  But, as the Republicans have belatedly come to realize, they are stuck with him.  “Ignore it, deflect it all you want,” said Mike Noble, the chief of research and managing partner at the polling firm OH Predictive Insights. “This is, right now, going to be the Trump show . . .  The oxygen is just going to be sucked out of the room focusing on Trump.”  “The press likes him – he’s the story, he’s conflict,” said longtime GOP strategist Beth Miller. “How do you continue not to write about him?”

Then, too, the revulsion against the long-standing legend of the heroic Confederacy is in recent days being carried to unusual extremes, some of them rather ludicrous.  For example, the road running through Fairfax that used to be called Old Lee Highway has been renamed to Blenheim Boulevard, taking this new name from that of a substantial farm whose main house is still standing in the neighborhood and is maintained as a historic site.  Since Blenheim, like the majority of substantial households beneath the Mason-Dixon line, was a slave-owning farm during the days of antebellum South, I do not see what advantage this name-change confers.  Similarly, when I recently went along the Appalachian Trail between Rtes. 522 and 55, I noticed that the signpost for the Mosby campground had been taken down, so that the turnoff to the spur trail that leads to the campground has become barely noticeable.  Mosby is quite a sympathetic figure, to my mind.  He disapproved of slavery in general and entered the Civil War without enthusiasm.  Although he was an effective soldier for the Confederacy, he displayed no nostalgia for the antebellum after the war was over, refused to cater to Southerners who resisted the Reconstruction, became a firm friend of Ulysses Grant, and said openly that the cause of the Civil War was slavery and nothing else, in the teeth of all of the excuses that various apologists for the secession maintained.  Although he kept a slave during the Civil War, he seems to have treated the man well – sufficiently well, at any rate, for them to maintain a friendly correspondence with each other after the war up to the 1890s.  I don’t see the advantage of eradicating his name from the trail, particularly as the subsequent absence of signage makes the campground more difficult for hikers to locate than it was before.

Spring progresses with the riotous profusion that is characteristic of the region here.  Many bushes are already covered with leaves, hellebore is in full bloom, the tendrils of the willows are newly green.  Pear trees and cherry trees, hyacinth and forsythia are all flowering; the crocuses, first blossoms of the season, are nearly gone by now.  Every year I see this transformation I am struck as much by its relentlessness as by its beauty.  Each day at this time of the year sees a new change and any wish for a brief halt to provide sufficient leisure for savoring a particular stage of this process is a wish made in vain; the growth can be contained by no one. 

So there is no shortage of new developments.  But they are not, or at least not directly, COVID-related.  The only episode this week on a personal level that marks the waning influence of the disease is my attendance of a theatre performance – the first one I’ve been to December, 2021, and even that one was at a church that contained a much smaller number of seats than an ordinary theatre.  This one took place at the Klein Theatre (formerly the Shakespeare Theatre), which can seat nearly 800 people.  I wore a face mask, both in the theatre itself and on the Metro rides I took back and forth to the city.  (As noted earlier, it is much easier to use public transportation to go downtown than to drive there.)  But I felt démodé, like one who has clung to a style of dressing months after it has gone out of fashion, for not many others were taking this precaution.  Evidently people have become sufficiently confident to revert to pre-pandemic behavior in this respect, although personally I do not think that the data justify this conclusion. 

It is true that the hospitalization and death rates from COVID continue to decline.  As of this writing there are fewer than 17,000 COVID patients in hospitals throughout the nation, a much smaller amount than there had been a year earlier.  At this point the death rate is under 300 per day, also a significant decrease.  But it is still fairly substantial.  Over the past twelve months we lost slightly under 42,000 to influenza, which works out to about 115 per day.  Thus even at this reduced rate, which has been in effect for only a few weeks, COVID is still more than twice as deadly as influenza. 

Returning to the theatre visit, I received the evening program in rather an unexpected fashion.  Instead of a printed program of several pages I was given a single page with QR code on it, which I scanned with a phone – adjusting the phone’s settings, of course, to use the theatre’s Wifi – and thereby downloaded the program to view on the phone’s screen.  Doubtless such a procedure, although a novelty to me, will become standard practice in future. 

As to the play itself, it was a performance of King Lear. Since the play is a favorite of mine and it is difficult for me to resist the temptation to be profuse on the subject, I will defer my impressions of this interpretation to another entry.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 681,603,603; # of deaths worldwide: 6,812,235; # of cases U.S.: 105,608,305; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,148,828.