Author: betula54

Another club-like hike – Portugal’s new bridge for pedestrians – Mounting crisis in India – Evening statistics

I met with various Wanderbirds members to take a hike led by PE in the Patuxent River Park.  This park borders Jug Bay on the Patuxent River and contains a network of trails that cross along the marshy area adjacent to the little bay – although the trails themselves, it must be noted, are not at all muddy and are in fact extremely well-maintained.  Although the hike was eight miles, similar in length to the one I led yesterday, it presented quite a contrast in other respects.  The trails of the Massanutten area are almost uniformly rocky, and the ascent to Sherman Gap was long and steep.  Today we had little elevation gain (about 500 feet in all, upon short, gentle hillsides) and there were scarcely any rocks on the trail at all.  The hike offered as much to the ear as it did to the eye; numerous birds of many different species were uttering their characteristic calls.  PE has considerable ornithological knowledge and was able to identify the birds by their individual songs.  And afterwards we had lunch together in the parking area, feasting on various contributions, mainly from PE and AD, such as drinks, cut vegetables, hummus, fruit, and so on.  It was very reminiscent of the post-hike festivities of the Wanderbirds.  FH, with whom I carpooled yesterday, was one of the participants and we agreed that this hike was a good way to wind down from the exertions of the preceding day.

The Arouca Bridge, the world’s longest pedestrian bridge, has been formally inaugurated today.  It is a suspension bridge about 1/3 mile long, spanning the Paiva River in Portugal    Children under age 6 are not allowed on it and all visits must be accompanied by guides.  The cost is 10-12 euros and passage across the bridge must be booked via a local website.  The river flows about 575 feet below the metal walkway, so it is not for the faint-hearted.

India is now facing a grim choice.  Its government has been reluctant to initiate a complete lockdown, although several individual states – such as Odisha, Delhi, Maharashtra, Karnataka and West Bengal – have lockdowns of their own and others, such as Uttar Pradesh, have night curfews or weekend lockdowns.  India has already endured a 68-day lockdown last year, which resulted in millions of migrant workers unemployed and running out of money, while many of the poorest citizens, especially undernourished children and pregnant women who rely on government programs, struggled to access benefits.  Immunization programs came to a halt during this period, and those suffering from serious illnesses (including those other than COVID) had difficulty in accessing crucial health services.  The government’s reluctance to repeat this experience is understandable, but it may have no alternative.  The country’s case count is now well over 19 million, while the official death toll is over 215,000; in all probability the actual number is much higher.   Case rates are projected to continue rising for the next two weeks at a minimum, and the daily death toll may come to exceed 13,000.  Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 153,467,820; # of deaths worldwide: 3,215,537; # of cases U.S.: 33,179,285; # of deaths; U.S.: 591,056.  Today’s daily U.S. case increase is 4.4% of the global total and its death toll is 3.3% of the global total, the first time that they are proportionate to our population in relation to that of the world at large since I can remember.  Part of the reason, of course, is that the case increase and death count in India are now so high.  It is also true, however, that these increases are the lowest that we’ve seen for several months. 

Hiking in the Massanuttens – The road to herd immunity – CDC’s cautious optimism – Evening statistics

I went with some of the Capital Hiking Club hike leaders to the Massanuttens.  It was a sort of conditioning hike.  Several of the leaders have had considerably less opportunity to be out of doors than I have, and they are desirous of getting some training to get them back into reasonable trim.  We started from Elizabeth Furnace and went up the Sherman Gap Trail to the ridgeline, a long ascent that becomes quite steep towards the end.  Then we went along the ridgeline, from where we caught glimpses of the valley below, had lunch at Shawl Gap, and descended from there back to Elizabeth Furnace:  about 8¼ miles and perhaps 1800 feet of elevation gain.  We saw numerous wildflowers, including several not normally seen at lower elevations:  bluets, dwarf iris, and an occasional lady-slipper.  Several butterflies flitted across the paths.  It was a beautiful day, cool enough to prevent us from over-heating ourselves during the steep ascent to the ridgeline.

FH and I drove together to the trailhead.  Since we are both vaccinated, we did not wear facemasks while riding in the car, and FH sat beside me in the front rather than in the back seats.  It felt strangely reckless at first after all of the caution we’ve been forced to exercise over the past several months, but eventually it came to seem not at all strange.  Indeed, the pace of vaccination was one of our principal topics of conversation during the drive to the trailhead.  At this point 44% of the U.S. population has received at least one dose, with 31.2% fully vaccination.  Among adults 18 or older, the figures are 55.8% for having received a single dose and 39.8% for having been fully vaccinated.  Among seniors 65 or older, the figures are 82.6% for having received a single dose and 69.3% for having been fully vaccinated.  This last statistic is particularly significant, for seniors are by far the most likely to require hospitalization after contracting the virus.  We now account for just under 8.5% of the critical cases worldwide, a much lower figure than it was a few months ago. 

As always, any note of optimism must be tempered with caution.  We have not reached the so-called “herd immunity” yet; that condition requires 70%-85% of the adult populace being fully vaccinated.  Eventually the vaccine must be available to adolescents; they are certainly more resistant to the disease than seniors, but they are by no means immune.  Currently the vaccine is available to anyone 16 years or older.  However, the CDC is attempting to make vaccines available to those in their early teens, i.e., from 12 years old to 15 years, as well.  Based upon the decreasing daily case rate, the decreasing daily death rate, and the increasing number of vaccinations, Dr. Rochelle Walensky said that a full re-opening by July 1^st is feasible.  As she noted, however, “the virus has tricked us before,” and it is premature to declare victory at this stage.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 152,783,372; # of deaths worldwide: 3,205,683; # of cases U.S.: 33,145,463; # of deaths; U.S.: 590,700.

The Lag B’Omer celebration on Mount Meron – National optimistic mood reflected by our economy – More tragedy in India – Evening statistics

“Don’t ever get involved with the Hasids,” my grandfather once told me.  “They are terrible people.”

I am bound to say that such advice was superfluous, as I never felt the slightest attraction towards them at any period in my life.  My grandfather was Orthodox, but his piety was of that quiet, unobtrusive variety that never was unduly flurried by the knowledge that other people’s attitudes towards religion differed from his.  The fundamentalist outlook was anathema to him.   

His hostility towards this group would have been reinforced by the episode that occurred in Israel at the celebration of Lag B’Omer on Mount Meron, where a stampede killed 45 people and injured 150 more.  The Israeli Ministry of Health had attempted to discourage this assembly in the first place, on the grounds that it might cause another super-spreader event.  But case rates in the country have been low for some time, and Israel has already vaccinated 58% of its population.  So the Ministry reluctantly gave permission for the event to proceed – not anticipating a cause of death completely unrelated to COVID.  None but the ultra-Orthodox bother themselves much about this holiday at all.  Lag B’Omer occurs in the midst of the 7-week period between Passover and Shavuot.  This interval is regarded as a period of semi-mourning, during which shaving, listening to instrumental music, or conducting weddings, parties, and dinners with dancing are forbidden. Traditionally, the reason cited for these restrictions is in memory of a plague that killed the 24,000 students of Rabbi Akiva (ca. 40–ca. 137 A.D.).  To my mind, such an attitude is a deliberate scorning of the gifts that Nature has chosen to bestow upon us during one of the most beautiful times of the year, but I’m not the one to decide upon such matters.  No doubt these co-religionists of mine would look upon my habit of taking to the mountain trails during this period with pitying wonder and condemnation.  In any case, Lag B’Omer provides a brief relief to this harsh, gloomy observance.  It is a celebration of the memory of Shimon bar Yochai, a sage of the 1^st century and a forerunner of the Kabalists.  Why anything connected with the Kabbalah should be a matter of rejoicing is something of a puzzler for me, but there it is:  the religious authorities have so decreed it, and it is not my business to pass judgment on it.  The celebration is marked by the lifting of the afore-mentioned restrictions, as well as bonfires and singing and dancing, and it is, to use Douglas Adams’ phrase, “mostly harmless.”  But evidently there are exceptions, and so it proved in this instance.  The circumstances that led to the stampede are unclear, but it appears that about 100,000 worshippers emerged from one section of the mountainside compound, down a passageway with a sloping metal floor wet with spilled drinks, leading to a staircase continuing down. Witnesses say that people tripped and slipped near the top of the stairs. Those behind, not knowing of the blockage ahead, continued, crushing the people further down. Five of the dead are Americans, which probably is why this incident has received so much attention in our headlines; otherwise it is doubtful that our journalists would give it more than a brief mention.

Our economy is growing – to a remarkable degree, in light of the recent pandemic.  It has gone up 6.4% in the last quarter. The number of people seeking unemployment aid last week reached its lowest point since the pandemic began. The National Association of Realtors said that more Americans signed contracts to buy homes in March, reflecting a strong housing market as summer approaches.  Economists expect the economy to expand close to 7% for 2021 as a whole, which would mark the fastest calendar-year growth since 1984.  In March, U.S. employers added 916,000 jobs – the biggest burst of hiring since August.  Retail spending has surged, manufacturing output is up, and consumer confidence has reached its highest point since the pandemic began.  There are many factors:  the aggressive scheduling of the vaccine rollout, re-opening of more businesses, the flow from federal spending into domestic economy, the Federal Reserve’s ultra-low interest policy.  But whatever the reason, the national mood is overwhelmingly optimistic – perhaps a little too much so.  The pandemic is not over yet.  Today’s U.S. daily death tally, for example, was 5.5% of the death tally worldwide – far less of a discrepancy than in earlier months, but somewhat high in light of the fact that the U.S. contains only 4% of the world’s population. 

The national situation presents a great contrast to that of India, which continues to unravel.  It is the world’s largest producer of vaccines, but it is nonetheless beset by vaccine shortages.  Mumbai has run out of stock and will be unable to vaccinate anyone from April 30^th to May 2^nd.  During the month of April, the number of COVID cases almost trebled.  Nearly 3,500 Indians have died from the virus on this day alone.  Biden has sent considerable aid to India in the form of equipment, oxygen cylinders, and test kits.  But travel from India to the U.S. has been sharply restricted.  Foreigners who have been in India during the past 14 days will not be permitted to enter the U.S. unless they are permanent residents or close family members of U.S. citizens, while the State Department has included India in its “do not travel” advisory for all Americans.  Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 151,991,376; # of deaths worldwide: 3,193,044; # of cases U.S.: 33,102,238; # of deaths; U.S.: 590,024.

President Biden’s first joint address – India in crisis – Brazil’s death toll – Evening statistics

Biden’s first joint address to Congress yesterday presented quite a contrast to those of his predecessor.  To begin with, there are usually about 1400 people in attendance on such occasions, whereas yesterday only about 200 appeared in person.  Nearly everyone in Congress has been vaccinated, but many are still shunning crowds of people indoors, as indeed the CDC recommends even vaccinated persons to do.  Those who attended had to provide proof of being tested within the previous 48 hours.  Masks were de rigueur; those who have made a point of discarding them in recent days, such as Ted Cruz or Lauren Boebart, wore them on this occasion.  The Capitol remains a fortress, with the roads to it blocked off for a half-mile in any direction. 

And then of course Biden himself is soft-spoken and uses none of the incendiary rhetoric to which we’ve become accustomed to hearing for the past four years.  He is, truthfully, a rather dull speaker; but at any rate he is neither boorish nor vitriolic.  The lack of dramatic highlights means that there is little chance of any part of the speech going viral, except, possibly, that of Ted Cruz enjoying a refreshing slumber during the middle of it.  A blissful smile hovered upon his rosy lips during this interval, which perhaps signifies that he was enjoying dreams about vacationing in Cancun.

India is receiving about $100 million in coronavirus supplies (oxygen materials, personal protection equipment, vaccine manufacturing supplies, test kits, etc.) as the pandemic continues to spiral.  Only 8% of the population has received a single dose of the vaccine, and the case rate continues to expand at well over 350,000 per day.  Fauci has gone on record as stating that India’s problem is a global issue.  If the COVID virus is allowed to run its course there unchecked, the variants developed under these conditions could spread to other countries.  In several cases the vaccines are less effective against the variants than they are against the original virus, meaning that the variants could undo all of the good that the vaccines are doing if they are disseminated to other nations.  Officially India has reported about 150 deaths per million, while Brazil and the United States reported figures of approximately 1,900 and 1,800 respectively.  But medical experts believe that India’s true COVID numbers may be five to ten times greater than the official tally.

In India, at least, the government is willing to admit that it has miscalculated on occasion and is not too proud to accept aid from other sources.  In Brazil the government remains in self-denial.  A mere 13% of its populace has received a single dose of the vaccine and the country has already endured more than 400,000 deaths, the second-highest in the world.  Our own death toll is the highest; but the actual proportion of deaths in Brazil is higher than ours, since it has only two-thirds of our population.  Bolsonaro continues to insist that the country must get back to business as usual, arguing that the economic hardship for Brazilians is equally as bad as the pandemic itself.  He overlooks the fact that the countries such as Vietnam, South Korea, and China that imposed the most rigorous lockdowns in the early stages of the pandemic have had significantly lower death tolls and smaller economic contractions.   Brazil’s gross domestic product contracted 4.1% in 2020, the biggest annual recession since 1996.  Bolsonaro has also consistently undermined mayors and state governors when they tried to impose their own lockdowns, social distancing rules, or mask mandates.  His motives are not merely the result of self-delusion.  In the midst of the pandemic he has initiated, virtually unnoticed, a series of mandates that remove protections for labor and the environment, while opening up indigenous lands for exploitative agriculture and mining. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 151,095,600; # of deaths worldwide: 3,178,095; # of cases U.S.: 33,041,964; # of deaths; U.S.: 589,181.

A temporary hiatus – The vaccine rollout accelerates – CDC guidelines on masks – Prognostics for economic activity – From Raspberry to raid:  the tribulations of Rudy Giuliani – Recent population trends – The lockdown in Turkey – Evening statistics

Fatigue has interfered with composing these journal entries – not the kind of fatigue associated with illness, however.  On Monday I went with RS from Riverbend to Balls Bluff, which proved to be nearly 30 miles on foot, partly on account of an ill-advised “short cut” that wound up providing additional mileage to the original route.  Yesterday I was supposed to go with the Vigorous Hikers on a there-and-back hike from Manassas Gap, but the combination of the effect of my recent exertions (over 95 miles in the last four days) and a couple of blisters on my toes made such a project impracticable.  I did a few chores yesterday, such as mowing the lawn, restocking the larder, and catching up with accumulated Email; but I had little energy remaining for anything else.  A ten-hour bout of sleep, however, was an effective restorative.

This morning while going on errands I noticed that vaccinations are now available at the local Safeway, which is about a ten-minute walk from my house.  Two months ago I was fretting whether a vaccine would be available at all by this time of the year, but after a slow and unsteady start the state of Virginia, and Fairfax County in particular, is vaccinating at a furious pace.  At this date 42.7% of the population has received at least one dose and 29.1% is fully vaccinated.  If we take into account that the majority of vaccinations have been given to those who are 18 years or older, the rate for the adult population is even higher:  54.2% of American adults have received at least one dose and 37.3% are fully vaccinated.  However, it will not do to become too complacent.  The average daily rate of new cases is over 55,000 for the past seven-day period and the average daily death rate is over 650 – still on the high side. 

The CDC has issued guidelines that allow a bit of latitude for those who are fully vaccinated.  For everyone, masks are not needed for outdoor activities such as walking, running, and biking.  But vaccinated people, in addition, do not need to wear masks for dining out of doors with others, regardless of whether the others are vaccinated or not.  Masks are still recommended for everyone for numerous other activities, such as indoor dining, museum visiting, attending a full-capacity worship service, singing in an indoor chorus, and going to an indoor gym.

I had a consultation today with the financial advisors managing my mother’s holdings, and they are quite bullish about the market.  People have not spent much during the worst times of the pandemic, and as a result the American consumer is relatively flush with cash.  Now that the pandemic is (apparently) receding in this country Americans are eagerly shopping and buying and flinging money about with that fine reckless abandon for which we are so famous.  Our national economy, in fact, runs on the supposition that Americans are not good savers and are thriftless and improvident in their habits; and it must be said that this assumption is borne out by the results.  Demands for travel, as well, are already rising; airlines are hiring more pilots and stewards, and many cruise trips have been booked well into 2022. 

Rudy Giuliani has been singled out for attention in many different ways over the past several months and recently he has received an accolade thoroughly in keeping with his recent renown.  He is now the proud owner of a Golden Raspberry, awarded for his unwitting performance in the latest Borat film.  Judges agreed that he swept the field in the Worst Supporting Actor category and had no hesitation in bestowing this award for his role of “Rudy Giuliani as Himself.”  This was not the only notice he received; the award for “Worst Screen Combo” was given to “Rudy Giuliani and His Pants Zipper,” in reference to his thinly-disguised attempt to sexually assault the actress whom he believed was a journalist.  This noteworthy achievement, however, pales in comparison with that of his fellow-Trumpkin, Mike Lindell.  The CEO of MyPillow produced a documentary called “Absolute Proof,” which purports to demonstrate that a Chinese cyberattack “flipped” the 2020 election from former President Donald Trump to President Joe Biden.  The film received the Worst Picture award and Lindell himself is the winner of the Worst Actor category – a prize which anyone who has seen the commercials promoting his product would say that he thoroughly deserves.

Giuliani has also been the object of scrutiny from the Federal government, whose investigators raided his Manhattan apartment today.  It is fairly unusual to execute a search warrant against an attorney on account of the issues of client-attorney privilege; to execute a search warrant against an attorney of a former President is quite extraordinary.  Without presuming his guilt, it is apparent that a judge has been persuaded sufficient evidence exists to justify such a search.  Giuliani himself in his earlier career was an extremely successful prosecutor who put five New York Mafia leaders and the “junk bond kind” Mike Milken in prison by using similar methods, so it will be ironic if the investigators uncover the means of making him serve time as well.

The Census Bureau has issued the data that determines the state representation in the lower chamber.  Texas will gain two seats, while Florida, Colorado, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon will gain one.  The following states will lose one seat:  California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia.  California is losing a seat for the first time; people are fleeing as the tax state’s structure becomes increasingly burdensome.  The population has increased by 7.4% in the past decade, the second-lowest increase in history for a ten-year period.  The median age is now 38, as opposed to 37 in 2010. 

India is not the only country that is being ravaged by the COVID virus.  Turkey has instituted a three-week lockdown to combat the soaring number of new cases and deaths.  The lockdown is far more restrictive than any that our nation has undergone.  Residents may not go outside except for grocery shopping and other essential errands, and most businesses have been shut down.  The lockdown is expected to place additional strain on the country’s economy, which already suffers from double digit inflation, sinking national currency, and bankrupt businesses,

Statistics for 4/26 as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 149,312,998; # of deaths worldwide: 3,147,992; # of cases U.S.: 32,926,048; # of deaths; U.S.: 587,350.

Yesterday’s statistics as of 8:30 PM – # of cases worldwide: 147,780,245; # of deaths worldwide: 3,122,415; # of cases U.S.: 32,824,361; # of deaths; U.S.: 586,152. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 150,197,119; # of deaths worldwide: 3,163,021; # of cases U.S.: 32,983,326; # of deaths; U.S.: 588,322. 

Hiking along the Potomac (more or less) –COVID comes to Mount Everest – The Johnson and Johnson vaccine is resumed – Robert Chapman fumbles at Bumble – Evening statistics

Both yesterday and today I continued hiking with RS on routes that more or less parallel the Potomac River.  Yesterday we went from Ft. Belvoir to Roosevelt Island (22 miles, but with little elevation gain) and today we went from Roosevelt Island to Riverbend (23 miles, with numerous ups and downs that totaled to about 2000 feet of elevation gain in all).  The hike yesterday was not without its high points, but RS and I agreed not to use the route again.  The last six miles involved walking along the Mount Vernon Trail from Bellehaven to our end point. Although the segment has extensive vistas of the Potomac and passes along the waterfront of Alexandria, it is marred by the continual traffic on the George Washington Parkway that swerves by noisily just a few feet away from the trail itself.  The trail also skirts the airport, and numerous planes come flying in; as they descend towards the terminal they are so low to the ground that they seem almost to threaten grazing our heads.  Today’s hike was better, although we had to make extensive detours eliminate walking along Georgetown Pike as much as possible. Even the minimal amount that we were forced to do was extremely disagreeable; it is a major traffic artery with no sidewalk and hardly any shoulders to walk on.  However, much of the hike took place along the Potomac Heritage Trail, which is in excellent condition and was not especially muddy in spite of the overnight rainfall.  We caught the remains of the bluebells, as well as numerous other wildflowers.  The weather on both days was nearly ideal:  in the sixties, with no rain during the day and low humidity. 

The coronavirus has now invaded Mount Everest.   Erlend Ness, a mountain climber from Norway, tested positive for the virus at the Mount Everest base camp, the first base camp visitor to do so.  He was quickly flown down to Kathmandu, but one mountain guide has warned that the virus could spread among the hundreds of other climbers, guides, and helpers who are now camped on the base of Everest if all of them are not checked immediately and appropriate safety measures are taken.  Ness lived among them for weeks and the people at the base camp eat and sleep in very close quarters together, so the odds of others getting infected from him are high.  In addition, anyone who is infected while staying at the base camp is at a considerable risk no matter how much of an athlete he may be; the reduced oxygen in the environment will inhibit recovery and healing.

The Johnson and Johnson vaccine is being used again, after temporarily being placed on hold because of isolated cases of persons developing blood clots after receiving it.  The number of these is very small – a bare 15 cases of the nearly 8 million J&J vaccines administered – and so the CDC has lifted the pause after it spent ten days investigating the matter.  It has come to the conclusion that the advantages outweigh the risks, but it is issuing a caveat about the potential side effects.  Women under 50 appear to be particularly vulnerable to this development.  All of the 15 cases reported so far have been women, most of them in their 30s.  Three of them have died.  The condition appears to be treatable if it is detected sufficiently early, so these who receive the J&J vaccine are cautioned to monitor themselves for several days after it is administered.  In my own family, both my brother and my cousin’s daughter received this vaccine several weeks ago, happily with no ill effects.

In an effort to impress a young woman via the Bumble app, Robert Chapman boasted to her that “I did storm the Capitol” and said that he “made it all the way into Statuary Hall.”  The woman was not impressed, replying simply:  “we are not a match.”  However, his remarks did procure the attention of another party – namely, the Justice Department, when his remarks were forwarded to them by the other Bumble user, and they were then able to corroborate Chapman’s claims by comparing his Bumble profile picture to body camera footage from police officers who were inside the Capitol.  Uocovering incriminating social media has become something of a hallmark of investigations for the purpose of identifying the rioters, including posts from (among others) Facebook, Twitter, TikTok, Parler, and Snapchat where they bragged about their exploits.

Yesterday’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 147,039,773; # of deaths worldwide: 3,112,291; # of cases U.S.: 32,788,341; # of deaths; U.S.: 585,875.

Today’s statistics as of 8:30 PM – # of cases worldwide: 147,780,245; # of deaths worldwide: 3,122,415; # of cases U.S.: 32,824,361; # of deaths; U.S.: 586,152.  Today is the first day that our daily number of COVID-related deaths is actually under our percentage of the global population:  our number of new deaths today is 2.8% of the number of new deaths worldwide.

A meeting with an old friend – Mask-wearing in DC – Hiking in the area of Occoquan and Ft. Belvoir – Promising developments in the U.S. – Increasing difficulties in India and Brazil – Evening statistics

Yesterday I met with KT, whom I have known since childhood.  We have both been vaccinated, and as a result felt confident enough to dine indoors at a restaurant – all the more readily since the cool temperatures made outside dining uncomfortable.  It was the second time that I have dined indoors at a restaurant since the vaccination, and it still felt oddly venturesome to do so.  Afterwards we strolled together in the vicinity of the magnificent cathedral of Washington and its grounds, as well as some of the trails in the Tregaron Conservancy and along Newark St., where several 19^th-century houses are still standing.  We had a wonderful time together, with our visit lasting for five hours.  When one meets with someone with whom one’s friendship dates from the time of being an elementary school student, there are numerous memories that recur and there never is any danger of conversation flagging, particularly when circumstances force them apart for several months.  We each had the pleasure of knowing that the other has kept well and active during the trying times when the pandemic was at its height and that we now have the ability to pursue activities that we have been forced to eschew for so many months.

The residents of DC , incidentally, are much more conscientious about wearing masks while walking on the streets.  In the suburban area of Fairfax, many go maskless outside at this point; but in DC every single pedestrian was wearing one.  Occasionally I saw signs exhorting the residents to use masks and to exercise social distancing practices.  It is perhaps just as well to have a uniform practice in such matters.  Those who have been vaccinated may be subject to much less risk if they walk without facemasks and arm-in-arm with others; but it will be a source of great social tension if some are subject to pandemic-related restrictions and others are not.

The weather was considerably warmer today, and I went with RS to explore routes that can be used for hiking along the vicinity of the Potomac and Occoquan Rivers.  We started from Occoquan and skirted around Occoquan Regional Park to Meadowood and Ft. Belvoir, about 21 miles in all, with a few ascents (not very steep ones) that amounted to perhaps 700 feet.  Ft. Belvoir has a network of trails open to the public, some of which lead to views of the Chesapeake Bay or, more precisely, of a few of the inlets that drain into the estuary.  Wildflowers tend to be less numerous in this region than in the piedmont, but we did see many wisteria and dogwood trees in bloom.  On one trail we saw some pinxter azaleas just beginning to blossom. 

Hospitalizations related to COVID have dropped by 80% from the amount at the beginning of January among Americans 65 and older.  This development is encouraging; seniors have accounted for accounted for about 8 in 10 deaths since the pandemic began.  However, the nation appears to be unable at this point to reduce the current average of over 60,000 new cases per day, comparable to the rate seen during the surge of the previous summer.  The new cases are chiefly among younger people who have not yet been vaccinated.  Michigan in particular has seen a substantial increase of cases.  Hospitalizations there among people in their 50s have increased 700 percent since late February, outpacing all other age groups.  The cases that have required hospitalization tend to be less severe on the whole than the earlier ones on account of the younger age and, in consequence, the greater resilience of the patients.  Our overall rates are declining with respect to the global population at large; the U.S. currently accounts for 22% of the COVID infections and nearly 19% of the deaths – still disproportionately high, but significantly less so than even a few months ago. 

The situation in India is diametrically opposed to the one here.  After having case levels plummet to record lows as recently as February, the recent rise in cases is like an explosion.  Nearly 800 variants of the virus have been detected in the country.  The hospital beds are nearly all occupied by now, with next to none available for new patients.  As resources for hospitals become more strained, law and order is beginning to break down.  Oxygen tankers are forced to travel under police guard to forestall looters.  The black market trade in medical equipment has soared.  Today the country endured an increase of over 345,000 new cases and over 2,600 deaths.  High as these figures are, they are almost certainly under-estimates.  With test kits in short supply, the number of reported cases is only a fraction of the number of actual ones; and the deaths are also under-reported because many people have died outside of hospitals and never got tested. 

Brazil, similarly, has seen soaring death rates.  The gravediggers at Vila Formosa cemetery, the largest one in Sao Paolo, had never seen more than 10 night burials in a single 24-hour period until the pandemic began.  By May, 2020, machines were brought in to dig 60 graves per day and at this point the cemetery is trying to accommodate digging 200 graves per day. In 12 months the cemetery has filled in 26 lots, an area that in pre-pandemic times would yield more than two years of burials.

Yesterday’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 145,293,301; # of deaths worldwide: 3,083,663; # of cases U.S.: 32,665,038; # of deaths; U.S.: 584,179.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 146,218,253; # of deaths worldwide: 3,098,834; # of cases U.S.: 32,734,571; # of deaths; U.S.: 585,030.

The recent dearth of political scandal – Bride and groom as gate crashers – An appeal for all-electric vehicles – Vaccine scams – Continued tragedy in India – Evening statistics

I have been fairly dilatory about scanning the news in recent weeks.  The fact is, there is much less report than previously, at any rate on the domestic front.  I may not agree with all of Biden’s policies (his handling of the influx of undocumented emigrants at our borders, for instance, seems to me very ill-advised), but in general he has been conducting himself as a hard-working, straightforward, diligent public official, without any of the offensive manners and corrupt practices of his predecessor.  I thus have been in the position of W. S. Gilbert’s King Gama, who feels aggrieved because he has “nothing whatever to grumble at!”

One item, however, caught my attention today.  Courtney Wilson and Shenita Jones held a lavish wedding at an opulent 16,313-sq. foot mansion, whose features include a bowling alley, a theatre, an elevator, a tennis court, and nine bedrooms.  There was one slight problem:  the mansion in question did not belong to them.  Nathan Finkel, the actual owner, has been trying to sell the house for two years.  Wilson had previously posed as a potential buyer, scouting the scene in advance and calculating that he would be able to hold the wedding at a house that he knew would be vacant.  He didn’t realize that Finkel lived in another home on the same property and, as a result, was an astonished witness of a flock of strangers invading his house.  Eventually Finkel called in the police.  “I have people trespassing on my property. And they keep harassing me, calling me. They say they’re having a wedding here and it’s God’s message,” he told the 911 dispatcher.  This divine message acquired a little postscript when the police arrived and forcibly escorted the groom and other organizers of the event from the scene. 

The governors of twelve states have sent a letter to Biden urging that all vehicles with internal combustion engines by phased out by 2035, including trucks as well as cars.  They do not seem to be aware of what they are asking for.  Electric cars go for relatively limited distances before recharging is necessary.  Outside of the extremely expensive Tesla models, not one of them goes more than 300 miles per charge and the majority of them are not even capable of that much.  Surely the governors cannot be unaware that recharging an electric vehicle is a much more time-consuming process than filling a car’s tank with gas.  For truck drivers who must travel hundreds of miles per day in a country with huge distances between population centers that are likely to have recharging stations available, the all-electric option is not feasible.  The drive that I recently performed traveling from Chicago back to Virginia, for instance, would have taken me three days with an all-electric vehicle; the length of the charging time would have obliged me to stay overnight in the area where the recharging was taking place.   Presumably the technology will improve and the driving range of a newly-charged vehicle will increase over time – but the issue of the time required for recharging is much less easy to overcome. 

It was only a matter of time, I suppose, but the ubiquitous scammers have discovered that vaccines can be exploited just like male “enlargement” treatments, cures for cancer, remedies for hair loss, and various other medical issues.  Counterfeit vaccines have recently been discovered in both Mexico and Poland.  The Mexican government has urged its citizens not to acquire the vaccine from private sellers, since all genuine vaccines are distributed by the government. 

India, once looked upon as having done well in combatting the COVID virus, is now being devastated.  Almost 1.6 million cases have been registered in a single week.  The COVID positivity rate doubled to 17% nationwide in a 12-day period, while in Delhi it hit 30%. Hospitals across the country have filled to capacity.  The patients are now much younger than in the earlier phases; in Delhi, 65% of cases are under 40 years old.  Hospitals have run short of beds and many patients are forced to wait for treatment in the buildings’ corridors.  Over 99% of ICU beds in Delhi hospitals are occupied, and the supplies of oxygen and plasma are being rapidly depleted.  Crematoriums and graveyards are overwhelmed.  On this past Sunday, Delhi’s largest cremation facility, Nigambodh Ghat, ran out of space, despite doubling its funeral pyres to more than 60.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 144,416,137; # of deaths worldwide: 3,070,857; # of cases U.S.: 32,600,201; # of deaths; U.S.: 583,288.

The hike on Little Devils Stairs – PATC receives hike leader reports again – Chauvin’s trial and the folly of Maxine Waters – Crisis in Chad – Evening statistics

I led a hike for the Vigorous Hikers today, starting with the Little Devils Stairs Trail.  When the word “devil” is used in any trail title, it means that the trail is extremely rocky.  And so it is in this case.  The trail ascends through the gorge of Keyser Run for about 2 miles, rising about 1500 feet over a series of rocky steps and niches in rock walls, while crossing back and forth over the stream multiple times.  Afterwards we went to the Appalachian Trail via the Pole Steeple and Sugarloaf Trails, then went on the AT for 6½ miles south to the Neighbor Mountain Trail, descended via the Neighbor Mountain and Hull School Trails to the Thornton River, crossed the stream and ascended back up to the fire road and, eventually, returned to the parking area.  The hike was between 17½ and 18 miles, and had a total elevation gain of over 4000 feet, so it was fairly strenuous.  But the weather was perfect, warm without being overly hot or humid, and the members of the group were excellent companions, always cheerful and all of them making good time.  The hike has no outstanding overlooks to speak of, but there are many wildflowers and the rock formations in the ravine carved out by Keyser Run are unique to Shenandoah National Park.  The gorge was created by the erosion of a subterranean geological fault that formed millions of years ago. The basalt columns on the right and the eroded scree on the left are almost 600 million years old and are some of the oldest stones in the park.

In the past the Vigorous Hikes have always provided the Potomac Appalachian Trail Club (PATC), the maintainers of the Maryland and Northern Virginia sections of the AT (as well as of many other trails), with hike reports from the leaders.  For the past year this practice has been suspended, but now the PATC is becoming active again and has requested the club to resume submission of the reports.  Today’s hike was the first one for the Vigorous Hikers since PATC made this request, so I submitted a report this evening; fortunately I still had the link to the report form bookmarked.

Derek Chauvin has been found guilty of the murder of George Floyd.  Unfortunately, public officials who should have known better have handed him grounds for a mistrial.  Maxine Waters not only openly called for a guilty verdict but even threatened the jury members if they failed to deliver one.  And President Biden himself has been scarcely less indiscreet.  It is true that he fell just short of asking for a guilty verdict but he made it clear that he expected one.  “I wish elected officials would stop talking about this case, especially in a manner that is disrespectful to the rule of law and to the judicial branch and our function,” said Peter Cahill, the judge who presided over the trial. “I think if they want to give their opinions, they should do so in a respectful and in a manner that is consistent with their oath to the Constitution, to respect a coequal branch of government.”  His frustration is easy to understand.  I have no doubt that Chauvin’s lawyers will attempt to overturn the case after the jurors have been pressured from the outside in this fashion.  All that Waters had to do was to sit on her hands; a guilty verdict seemed quite probable in any case, since the evidence was fairly obvious and the medical experts who testified on Chauvin’s behalf (their claim was that Floyd had several health issues that were the direct cause of his death rather than his being choked for over 8 minutes on end) were unconvincing.  Now her maneuvers have virtually guaranteed that the verdict will be disputed and that the entire process of the trial will be begun all over again, to the detriment of her declared intentions.

President Idriss Deby of Chad has died while visiting troops on the front line of a fight against northern rebels.  No cause of death has been announced, although it is suspected he was killed by gunfire while leading the troops against the rebels.   Chad is not a democracy in any sense of the word – Deby held the office of President for over 30 years and the power base remains in the hands of an ethnic minority, with other groups (of which there are over 200) allowed only minimal participation in the government   Nonetheless, Deby’s death leaves a vacuum in that region of the world.  His son Mahamat Deby Itno is now the de facto interim President, being the official head of an office called the “Transitional Military Council,” which is supposed to take power for 18 months.  Whether it can do so without violence is extremely doubtful.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 143,517,213; # of deaths worldwide: 3,056,376; # of cases U.S.: 32,533,872; # of deaths; U.S.:  582,412.  Our percentages of the total infections and deaths worldwide are 22.5% and 19.0% respectively, which is substantially lower than they have been for many months.  But in part this result is due to the fact that the virus is accelerating in various regions outside of the country.  More than 5.2 million new cases were recorded last week, the greatest number of any single week since the pandemic began.  The State Department has recommended Americans to reconsider all international travel, even though several European countries have lifted restrictions for vaccinated travelers,

The Appalachian Trail from Gathland to Weverton – A reminiscence about the Hike Across Maryland – A revival of the Wanderbirds club after-hike festivities – The passing of Hester Ford – All American adults now eligible for COVID vaccines – Evening statistics

The hike yesterday organized by AD went along the Appalachian Trail from Gathland to Weverton Cliffs and back, about 12 miles in all and perhaps 1600 feet of elevation gain.  It is not an exciting part of the AT, but it is a pleasant one, keeping mainly to the ridgeline until the descent to the cliffs.  We had beautiful weather, sunny and warm but not overly hot.  The view from Weverton Cliffs  is slightly east of Harpers Ferry and the views do not extend to the town itself, but survey the Potomac flowing at what may be its most rapid pace as a result of the confluence of the Shenandoah and the Potomac Rivers just a short distance away.

The section of the trail has several memories for me, the most vivid of which goes back to the Hike Across Maryland event in which I participated nearly 12 years ago.  The hike contained several checkpoints, one of them being at Gathland, which is 30.5 miles from the starting point.  As I approached I was becoming tired and feeling uncertain whether I would be able to complete the distance that remained.  When I arrived there, however, I received a tumultuous welcome.  The volunteers at the waystation rang cowbells, beat on pots and pans, and broke out into cheers.  (I afterwards learned that they had a reputation for encouraging participants in this fashion.)  They were placed at the far edge of the park, which meant that I had to go uphill the last few yards to reach them; but this reception was so encouraging that I bounded to get there.  The volunteers at all of the checkpoints were solicitous and anxious to feed me, but here they were especially effusive, urging me to eat, laughing with pleasure at what they assured me was a good time for the distance covered, and, in general, making a great deal of my arrival.  It was good psychology on their part, for my spirits lifted at this exhibition of joyous good nature, and even though there were more than ten miles to go, my energy was almost completely restored. 

In contrast to the hike on Saturday, a large number of people participated, well over 20 of us.  We had refreshments afterwards at the tables underneath the pavilion.  Many people contributed to the food that was spread out for our regale:  drinks and fruit from AD and RH, cheeses from CB and MB, rosé wine from CB, sourdough bread from MB, desserts from AM, AO, BB, and myself.  We chatted about the hike, about the activities we have been pursuing individually while the club hikes have been on hold, about the vaccines and our experiences in obtaining them, and various other topics.  The atmosphere was very much like that of the Wanderbirds hikes as people filtered in from the trail to gather at the bus, probably the nearest approach to the party-like atmosphere we enjoyed before the pandemic forced the club to place the arrangement with the chartered bus in abeyance:  a large number of people being easily and carelessly merry together. 

We have lost a link to the past on Saturday.  Hester Ford, the oldest living American, died peacefully at her home.  Her age was at least 115 years and 245 days.  There is some doubt about her actual date of birth.  Her family said U.S. Census Bureau documents suggest she was born in 1905, but another set of Census Bureau documents point to 1904, which would have made her age at the time of her death 116 years.  She lived on her own until the age of 108, when she bruised her ribs in a fall, at which point her relatives insisted on moving in to look after her.  The treatment she received for this fall, incidentally, was the first time in her life that she needed to be hospitalized for any reason.   She had 12 children, who in turn provided her with 68 grandchildren, 125 great-grandchildren, and at least 120 great-great-grandchildren.  No one knows how she managed to live to such an advanced age; but two factors may have contributed to her longevity.  She is described as being unfailingly optimistic, despite having undergone many adversities, and she was also meticulous about getting out of doors every day.

Today the COVID vaccines are officially available to all adults in the U.S.  The nationwide level of daily new coronavirus cases remains at an average of about 67,400, up 26% from last month’s lows but down slightly from one week ago.  The seven-day average of daily shots given has held above 3 million for 12 straight days. Half of all U.S. adults have received at least one dose and nearly a third of American adults are now fully vaccinated.  Dr. Scott Gottlieb, a former Food and Drug Administration chief, predicts that the incidence rate will decline notably in the coming month as a result of the combination of vaccine distribution and warmer weather. 

Yesterday’s statistics as of 9:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 141,987,010; # of deaths worldwide: 3,032,205; # of cases U.S.: 32,404,454; # of deaths; U.S.:  581,061. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 142,677,050; # of deaths worldwide: 3,042,349; # of cases U.S.: 32,468,513; # of deaths; U.S.:  581,523. 

For the first time since I began recording these statistics the national daily death toll in proportion to the worldwide death toll has been consistent with our percentage of the global population at large i.e., in the neighborhood of 4%.  Brazil’s mortality rate now exceeds our own.  India’s infection rate continues to rise; today’s daily totals exceeded 250,000.    

Hiking in Shenandoah National Park – Ominous news from abroad – Beginning of a crisis with water supply from the Colorado River – Evening statistics

It was a quiet hike today with AD, RH, and JI, starting at Beahm’s Gap, taking the Hull School Trail down to the Thornton River, crossing the river, re-ascending to Skyline Drive and the Appalachian Trail via the Thornton River Trail, taking the AT to the Neighbor Mountain Trail, and descending by way of the Byrd’s Nest shelter to Beahm’s Gap.  RH went back to the cars, but I went with AD and JI about a mile more back and forth along the Rocky Ledge Trail before returning:  about 11 miles and 2600 feet of elevation gain.  It was a particularly comfortable temperature for hiking, in the high fifties and low sixties.  The wildflowers in this area are not as varied as in many other sections of the park, but we saw a good deal of starry chickweed, blue violets, yellow violets, and white violets.  Here and there we saw bloodroot and wild geranium and ragwort as well.  It took us a while to identify the ragwort, because it was still budding, and its purplish buds give no indication that the flowers they will eventually produce are bright yellow. 

At this point about half of the population in the U.S has received one dose of vaccination and over 30% are fully vaccinated.  The daily death toll is between 700 and 800, whereas it was up to 3,400 at some point in January.  But new “hot spots” keep emerging in other regions of the world.  Formerly the U.S. and Western Europe bore the brunt of the disease; now the greatest concentrations are in Eastern Europe, South Asia, and Latin America.  The death toll is now over 3 million worldwide (it was under 2 million just three months earlier) and the true number is believed to be higher because of concealment by various countries’ governments. 

In the midst of all of the concern about the virus there is a news item that may go unnoticed but which will have greater ramifications in the years to come.  The man-made lakes that store water for many Western cities dependent on the Colorado River are shrinking to historic lows.  It has long been a matter of astonishment to me that so many cities with massive populations have been built in an area with little direct supply of water.  In Washington we receive nearly 40 inches of rain a year; in Phoenix, whose greater metro area population is comparable to ours, the annual rainfall is 9 inches and the area has undergone periods over 100 days without any rain at all.  The main source of water is the Colorado River, which is relied upon by no fewer than seven states:   Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming.  Since 1963, the only times that the flow of the Colorado River has reached the ocean has been during the El Niño phases; in other years hardly any water gets past Lake Powell.  California, at least, has cities that could obtain an alternate source of water through desalinization of the ocean water; the process is expensive and its environmental impact is not negligible, but at any rate it is a possible solution.  For cities such as Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Tucson, there are no other water sources. 

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 141,292,672; # of deaths worldwide: 3,023,138; # of cases U.S.: 32,371,423; # of deaths; U.S.:  580,631.

The pace of spring – Getting a background check – Easing of school restrictions in Virginia – Upsurges in India and Brazil – International travel restrictions being lifted for the fully vaccinated – Evening statistics

I was at the Fairfax Government County Center today in order to get a background check.  This step will enable me to qualify for certain CERT volunteer activities.  The Center is about four miles from my house; and since I drove yesterday for about 11 hours on end and had little opportunity for exercise afterwards, I decided to walk the distance instead. 

Being away from the area for even a few days and then viewing it again is a reminder of how relentless the pace of spring can be.  The hyacinths in my garden and others are all nearly gone, the hellebore has retreated, the daffodils are fading.  On the other hand, tulips, lilacs, redbud, wisteria, double-blossomed cherries (which bloom later than the single-blossom species) are all in flaunting array.  Sometimes it is difficult to describe the surroundings without sounding like a garden catalog:  the sheer number of plant species in this area is overwhelming.  The Appalachian forest region, in fact, is one of the most biodiverse on the planet, with regard to both flora and fauna. It seemed exceptionally colorful after spending a few days in the sparser and more limited palette of the plains. 

The background check went smoothly.  It involved getting my fingerprints recorded, and the procedure is much better than it was formerly, when the tips of the fingers had to be smeared with ink and then pressed onto paper.  Now the fingers are pressed down on a scanner, remaining perfectly clean and without any possibility of smudging the prints.  On the return from the Center I saw a school bus with children boarding it, another sign of lightening restrictions.  In Virginia, as of April 1^st, school classes, school sports, graduation ceremonies, child care facilities, and school board meetings are not subject to the social gathering limitations, although all participants 5 years and older must wear masks.

India has seen a sharp spike in its number of COVID cases.  For the past three days the amount of daily increase in infections has been over 200,000.  It must be borne in mind that India’s population is about four times greater than our own, so that such a figure is comparable to 50,000 a day for us – and we still are not down to that level.  But India’s hospital system is much more fragile than our own and only 7% of its population has received at least one vaccine dose.  Officially the death rate is listed as 1.2% of the COVID cases, but in all probability the figure is higher in actuality.  Many people die at their homes, and often the cause of death listed on the death certificate is listed as “heart failure” or some other similarly vague term.  Sometimes this is done to spare the feelings of the relatives, for in many communities there is still a stigma attached to dying from the virus.

Still, the government in India is at least aware of the issue and in several of the larger cities is re-imposing lockdowns or social gathering restrictions.  The situation in Brazil is far worse.  It has a higher amount of daily case increases and mortality increases than any other country.  In recent weeks, it has accounted for about 25% of all COVID-related deaths worldwide.  The health care system there is in a state of collapse.  In some hospitals patients are being treated in chairs, for lack of access to unoccupied beds.  Many have run out of sedatives and of intubation drugs.  President Bolsonaro has shown no sense of responsibility whatever, actually encouraging people to gather in large crowds and endorsing the use of anti-malarial and anti-parasitical drugs as remedies, despite health experts’ assertions that these are thoroughly ineffective against the COVID virus.  Brazilians have been slow in getting vaccinated; about 46% have expressed distrust and reluctance to take them, and they continue to crowd busses, streets, beaches, and other public places.  It is possible that its death toll will rival our own in a couple of months, despite having only about two-thirds as much population.

Despite the surges in these countries and elsewhere, travel restrictions are easing, particularly for the fully vaccinated.  A rather motley assortment of countries have relaxed restrictions for vaccinated travelers or removed the quarantine requirement for them entirely:  Iceland, the Seychelles, Guatemala, Ecuador, Belize, Georgia.  Greece plans to be open to outside travelers by mid-May.  The EU is also currently working on a vaccine passport program that will allow fully vaccinated residents to move freely among member states. It hopes to launch the program by mid-June.  It is not yet known when it will open up to travelers from outside of the EU.

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 140,499,889; # of deaths worldwide: 3,011,440; # of cases U.S.: 32,303,500; # of deaths; U.S.:  579,918.

Hiking at Cool Springs – Using a measuring wheel – Visit to friends in Columbus and Chicago – Derek Chauvin on trial – Johnson and Johnson vaccine on hold – Encouraging trends – Evening statistics

I was on travel for a few days, with limited access to Internet access, which is the reason for the hiatus in my entries.  I actually began my trip on the 12^th, but my account of my activities on the 11^th will explain why there was no entry for that day as well.

4/11

I went with AD and several others (a dozen of us in all) back to the Cool Springs area, where we took the Ridge to River Trail to the Perimeter Trail loop, and then back along the Ridge to River Trail:  about 12 miles and 2000 feet of elevation gain in all. 

Before the hike began I underwent a slight adventure.  I arrived at the destination fairly early, but when I turned from Rte. 7 onto the road to the parking area and went about ¼ mile I found a car that had stopped because a tree had fallen across the road.  The driver and his companion had just gotten out of their car to inspect the blockage, and I joined them.  The driver had brought his Swiss-army knife along and, to my astonishment, he was able to saw through some of the slimmer branches.  While his companion and I were removing various branches from the road surface, another tree began to fall and all three of us managed to get out of the way just in time.  This tree was so aged that it split into several pieces, each of which was sufficiently small to lift or drag from the road.  After we did that we managed to remove enough of the first fallen tree to clear a single lane on the road.  If the other driver had not had his Swiss-army knife with him, the hike probably would have had to have been cancelled altogether.

The hike itself was a delightful.  The lower part of the Ridge to River Trail goes along the Shenandoah River, where bluebells flowered in abundance, as well as many other wildflowers:  spring beauties, bleeding hearts, trout lilies.  The Perimeter Trail rises slowly but inexorably upwards until one is able to get glimpses of the river valley below (these views will be unobtainable as the season advances and the trees are in full leaf), 

Regrettably, I had to leave early and miss the after-hike get-together in order to meet the author of a new edition for a book of hikes in Western Maryland.  I will be visiting a few of the hikes described in the earlier version (which was completed in 2014) and verify the description, noting how the trails may have altered since the time of its publication.  In order to do this, I will be using a measuring wheel, and I had to meet the author and several others verifying the hikes to get instructed in their use.  In one sense, they are quite easy to use:  there are no complicated switches or programming involved and it is simply a matter of putting the wheel on the ground at all times.  But using it will certainly make any hike more challenging.  We are expected to ensure that the wheel is on the ground continuously, even if the trail has puddles or rock fields, and to attempt to adhere to the middle of the trail as much as possible to avoid skewing of the measurements, particularly where a train curves sharply.  Using hiking poles will be out of the question when applying a measuring wheel, and steep ascents and descents will have to be taken much more slowly.  It will be impossible to get a completely accurate measurement for a hike that contains, for instance, a rock scramble, but we are expected to do the best we can.

After I returned home I had to cook dinner and make preparations from my trip, and by the time these tasks were done I was too tired to write or even to look up the statistics for the day.  I needed to get an early start on the following day and I therefore was asleep by 9:00 PM.

4/12

After having been vaccinated I am trying to reconnect with various friends.  This trip was one such attempt.  The itinerary consisted of going to Columbus to visit one friend, then to proceed to Chicago to visit another.  This first day of the trip I went to Columbus to meet with RL, who is something of an original.  He has a hobby centered about Ford’s early houseless carriages – perhaps “obsession” would be a more accurate word.  He has a separate garage in the center of the city, where he stores nearly a dozen old Fords (including some Model T’s) carefully refurbished so that they are drivable.  He is also a tax preparer, which meant that his schedule was rather filled up that week; but he had no hesitation in putting me up for the night. 

The drive took something over six hours but was fairly easy, so that for the most part I could rely on cruise control.  After I arrived I went out for a couple of hours on the Olentangy Trail, which goes along the Olentangy River. a tributary of the Scioto River.  Here, too, there were several bluebells, as one might expect on a riverbank at this time of year.  The trail passes through many parks with flowering pear and cherry trees; and since the season changes arrive slightly later in this area than in the DC metro area, they were still covered with blossoms. 

After this amble I rejoined RL and we went out to dinner.  It was something of a challenge to find a place that provided indoor dining, particularly on a Monday night, when many restaurants are closed even under normal circumstances.  We dined at an Asian “bistro,” which was not quite what we expected.  We were not served at our tables, but had to go up to a cashier, place our order, and received a electrical disk that was to buzz when the order was prepared, after which we had to go to pick it up and take it back to our table on trays.  But it was an enjoyable meal all the same, as we chatted about old times and plans for future meetings.  And it felt positively luxurious to be eating inside of a restaurant again after several months of deprivation.

Again, I had little chance that day to consult the Internet, since RL’s workstation held sensitive information about his clients and it would have been injudicious to allow an outsider to access it.

4/13

The drive from Columbus to Chicago is well under six hours and for the most part the roads are not heavily trafficked, so I was not expecting a difficult drive.  Instead, it turned out to be hellish.

About an hour after I left Columbus, the malfunction indicator light went on – just as it had done upon my return from Jim Thorpe in August.  It is a most unpleasant surprise when something like this occurs several hundred miles away from one’s home.  I got off of the interstate to drive to the nearest town that had an auto shop that could diagnose the issue.  The man at the auto shop was able to read the code, but was not able to find much information about it.  So I called the auto shop in Fairfax where I had originally purchased the car to ask them what the code meant and, more importantly, whether it was safe to drive the car for an extended distance.  They told me that the code meant something was wrong with the electrical supply to the battery and that it was advisable to get it checked before attempting to drive the car much further.

I went to three different Kia auto shops in the Dayton area after that.  The first one was so heavily booked that they could not spare a technician to look at the car.  The second could not provide services for hybrids.  The third also had no hybrid technician, but the people there agreed to look at the car and attempt to fix the issue if it did not specifically require a hybrid specialist.  These three shops were all at least a half-hour’s drive from each other and added an appreciable amount of distance to my traveling mileage.  In addition, I was driving from one to another in a state of wearing suspense as to whether the car would hold up while going from one shop to the next. 

Happily, the technician at the third shop who looked at the car was able to fix the problem and I was told that it was safe to continue the trip.  There followed a curious type of haggling that probably is possible only in the American Midwest.  The cashier offered to charge me a bare minimum for the repair, and he seemed embarrassed to be asking even for that trifling amount.  I, on the other hand, knew that the technician had spent the better part of an hour working on the car, and I wanted to ensure that he was compensated for the time he had expended.  We eventually came to a compromise approximately midway between the price he was asking and the full price of the labor – so that the end result was similar to that of the traditional bargaining ritual; it’s just that in this case the roles were reversed, with the buyer trying to raise the price and the seller to lower it.

By this time, of course, it was well into the afternoon, and traffic in the meantime had mounted up.  There was a considerable delay in Indiana on account of an accident that necessitated a lane closure, and another one, less severe, approaching Chicago from the highway from Gary.  I did gain an hour when I entered the Central Standard Time zone; but, even so, it was late afternoon when I checked into the hotel. 

I managed to check on some news items and get some statistics that day.  The principal events were the temporary hold placed on the Johnson and Johnson vaccine and the continued unrest in the Minneapolis area.

The FDA ordered the hold placed on the J&J vaccine because six people – about 1 in a million of those who received the vaccine in the U.S. – developed blood clots after receiving the dose, which in one case proved fatal.  The AstraZeneca vaccine has had a similar issue, and the two vaccines share a similar technology. Both of them are viral-vector vaccines, which introduce a coronavirus gene into the body using a genetically engineered common-cold virus.  At this point it is unknown whether the blood clots could be related to this technique; but it certainly seems advisable to pause on the vaccines’ usage while the matter is being investigated.  Two salient features are to be noted:  first, that the impact on the vaccine rollout is not severe, since the majority of the vaccines distributed in the U.S. are Pfizer and Moderna; and second, that the FDA was able to implement this decision without any interference from the Biden administration.  The president has said repeatedly that he will defer to medical experts in matters in such as these.  This situation is the first test of such an assertion, and he has shown himself to be a man of his word.

In Minneapolis, as residents are following the trial of Derek Chauvin, the ex-policeman responsible for the death of George Floyd, another “incident” occurred, in which a young African-American was shot by a policewoman after his car was pulled over for expired tags.  The details are still unclear – whether, for instance, he was making some sort of resistance or threatening gestures.  Kim Potter, the officer in question, claimed that she was reaching for her taser and pulled out her Glock in error.  It’s difficult to know how much credence can be placed on this account.  A taser and a Glock differ both in size and in weight, but the differences are not enormous and it is conceivable that one could be mistaken for the other in an emergency situation – though one would not expect such an error to occur from an experienced officer who has had training in handling weapons.  At all events, this recurrence of a black youth being shot by police merely on suspicion has exacerbated the tensions in the area still further, leading to more rioting.  Ironically, Brooklyn Center, where the episode occurred and where much of the damage has been caused, has a large number of African-American residents, who thus are among the greatest sufferers from the looters.

4/14

I met with DS in the mid-morning to the afternoon, where again we were pleased at the opportunity to meet in person again.  We talked about old times and about plans for future meetings.  And, of course, the topic of COVID figured largely in our discussion.  In both his case and mine we have been spared from the ravages of the virus.  His daughter contracted it some months ago, but it was a mild case and has had no appreciable after-effect on her health.  He has a close friend, however, who had to be placed on life support and is now scheduled to have a lung transplant.  The prospect of getting a lung transplant is a frightening under the best of circumstances; in the current situation, with hospitals still short of supplies and staff, and the ever-present risk of further infection, it is positively nightmarish.  We may be emerging from the pandemic, but the crisis is not over yet.

DS was obliged to depart after we had met for a few hours, and I had the latter part of the afternoon to myself.  The hotel where I was staying is not in Chicago itself but in a suburb called Orland Park.  I had originally planned to drive to Chicago to enjoy the sights of the city (Chicago is one of the best walking cities in the country), but after the experience of the day before I had no desire for any further driving.  Instead, I walked in the streets of Orland Park itself.  It consists of large avenues with an abundance of shopping centers on nearly every block, so that a resident probably can perform about 90% of his shopping needs within a ten-minute radius by car.  There is no denying that the residents in suburbs like these (and they are fairly common in the Chicago metro area) enjoy a great deal of comfort and prosperity.  But the overall effect is rather dreary.  Part of the reason for this is the landscape.  There are few significant hills that require contouring of the roads, and consequently the road designers have chosen the line of least resistance, setting the roads in a uniform grid pattern.  The main arteries are long, broad, and straight, all of them with a continual flow of traffic – not enough to cause significant congestion, but the cars are endlessly coming and going.  One must use caution in going across them, for few of them have designated crosswalks.  Sometimes drivers would coming speeding along a driveway or side-street and then come to a screeching halt in surprise upon seeing a specimen of that rarest species of wildlife:  a pedestrian. 

The residential blocks interspersed between the main north/south and east/west arteries are pleasanter.  They are sufficiently distanced from the main drags so as to be spared the noise of the traffic.  The homes are solidly built, many of them handsome, and all of them spaced well apart.  Several of the houses are range-style.  There are a few well-laid parks with plenty of facilities for children, and I was pleased to see that several children were playing together in them.  An elderly person with mobility issues would probably find such a setting ideal, living in a house with no staircases and in a neighborhood whose sidewalks contain scarcely any elevation gain.  The absence of hills and of trees would grate on me in the long run.  I do not mean to imply that the area is a treeless desert.  There are indeed several trees in these neighborhoods, but there is usually quite a distance between one and the next, and there is no undergrowth.  In the DC metro area one is continually aware that the area was once dense forest and one is continually coming across little walkways that connect neighborhoods that are shaded by the tree canopy.  A living area like this one would not suit me at all.  But tastes differ.

4/15

The drive back was uneventful, but it is very long and left me little time to do anything else except to stop at a store to restock the larder, prepare dinner, and go over the mail that accumulated in my absence. 

I listened on the radio during the drive to various news items.  The trial of Derek Chauvin is in its final stage.  The defense rested its case today and Chauvin himself declined to testify, pleading the Fifth Amendment.  He certainly has the right to do so, but I’m somewhat surprised that his defense lawyers did not advise him that his refusal to say anything will make a bad impression on the jury.  Perhaps they fear that the jurors’ impression would be even worse if he were to speak at full length. 

Lawmaker Rick Roeber has resigned from his position in the Missouri House of Representatives.  In light of the fact that his children have accused him of sexually abusing them, his choice of wording for explaining this decision of his is somewhat unfortunate: “I want to be closer to my family.”

People are generally much more optimistic than before, with some reason.  At this point about 198 million vaccine doses have been administered in the U.S.  Of the total population, 37.9% has received at least one dose and 23.6% has been fully vaccinated.  Of the adults over 65, about 80% have received at least one dose and about 63.7% have been fully vaccinated.  Vaccines are now available in nearly all states to everyone over 16.  The economic situation is improving in proportion to the amount of people getting vaccinated.  The unemployment claims in early April have gone down by 193,000, the largest decline since August, 2020.  The current number is now about 576,000, the lowest figure since 13 months ago, when the pandemic started.  Several people have saved money by staying indoors most of the time and refraining from travel, and now as the danger of infection is waning they are beginning to spend it, stimulating the economy at a greater rate than previously expected.  Retail sales alone have gone up more than 9% in March.  The stock market has reached a new high.  Treatments for those who come down with the virus are improving.  The average 24-hour mortality rate has been under 900 for two weeks, the lowest since October.

There are a few caveats.  The recent spike in COVID infections is not large, but it is noticeable and it continues to rise.  The group chiefly affected contains adults between 18 and 30 – those who are least likely to have been vaccinated.  It is not certain that the vaccines can contain all variants.  The CEO of Pfizer has indicated that a booster shot may be necessary some months after receiving the second dose and that the vaccine may have to be taken annually, instead of once as originally was hoped.  So all is not rose-color, although hopes run high.

Statistics for 4/13, 10:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 138,006,921; # of deaths worldwide: 2,971,238; # of cases U.S.: 32,070,784; # of deaths; U.S.:  577,179.

Statistics as of 4/14. 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 138,820,156; # of deaths worldwide: 2,984,901; # of cases U.S.: 32,149,223; # of deaths; U.S.:  578,092.

Today’s statistics as of 9:30 PM – # of cases worldwide: 139,670,800; # of deaths worldwide: 2,999,246; # of cases U.S.: 32,224,139; # of deaths; U.S.:  578,993.

Hiking among the bluebells, and other wildflowers – Aftermath at a local winery – The effects of the virus on mental health – Debra Hunter’s questionable repentance – Puzzling reluctance of Marines to receive vaccines – Evening statistics

I led a training hike for Capital Hiking Club hike leaders today at Bull Run/Occoquan.  Not many showed up and those who did probably had less need of trailing than most of the other leaders.  We all kept up a good pace for the entire hike, going from Hemlock Overlook to Ordway Road and back (about 12½ miles round trip, plus a detour of about another mile described below).  We stopped periodically, however, to take photos.  The region is profuse in wildflowers at this time of year, and bluebells in particular, with their characteristic flowers consisting of five petals fused together into a tube shaped somewhat like a chalice; they are at their peak now.  There were great clusters of them on many parts of the trail, chiefly alongside the river bank, and some were to be seen on the opposite bank as well.  In addition, we saw many spring beauties, trout lilies, rue anemone, blue violets, white violets, rue anemones, starry chickweed, and a few early specimens of spiderwort. 

The weather was cool and overcast in the morning, but that worked to our advantage:  people were discouraged by the possibility of rain and consequently the trail was much less crowded than it ordinarily would have been at this time of year.  Even so, the parking area filled up by the time we set off.  On the way back I made a wrong turn without realizing it – it seemed as if I were continuing straight on the trail – but it actually veered off into another trail called the Johnny Moore Trail that is intended principally for horseback riding.  Happily, no one objected to this little detour.  It is the first time that I have heard of this trail or had any knowledge that another trail intersected the Bull Run/Occoquan Trail outside of the spur trails to Hemlock Overlook and to the White Trail Loop at Fountainhead.  We ate lunch on the return segment at the remains of a Civil War emplacement (a military installation used as a site for deploying weapons). 

Afterwards we stopped at the Paradise Springs Winery close to the Hemlock Overlook parking area.  Some years ago the Wanderbirds attempted to set up a winery hike ending there, but the project came to nothing when they learned that this particular winery would charge a substantial fee for a group of forty or fifty people  That seemed odd to us at the time; after all, bringing in a large number of people to a winery meant bringing in a number of potential customers, so why would they wish to charge a fee for doing them (as we thought) a favor?  But today I understood the reason.  Paradise Springs has no need of additional crowds.  It is little over 20 miles from Washington and is the winery of choice for people in the city who don’t wish to drive a long distance.  Their parking lot was filled to overflowing, with many people waiting for a space to open up, and the walls of the interior echoed with the chatter and the clatter of people drinking together.  We sat at one of the tables on the grounds instead, along with the great majority of the other customers.  It was actually quite pleasant; but I could not like the place as well as the other wineries I’ve attended in recent months, simply because it was crowded to such a degree and because anything like the individualized attention we received from other wineries in somewhat more remote parts of the Virginia wine country was out of the question here.  The wines themselves, of which we ordered samplers, were mediocre.  Despite these disadvantages, we enjoyed ourselves greatly.  Most of us had not seen one another for months, and we spent the time in conversation that flowed from one topic to the next:  the pleasure we had taken in the hike, plans for other training hikes in future, various experiences each of us have had in tasting wines both here and abroad, the manner in which various areas in DC have been renovated and upgraded, and so on.

The effects of the virus were not absent from our discussion.  RW, who works at a mental health clinic, spoke of how the isolation imposed as a result of the restrictions had aggravated the stress and the loneliness that were afflicting many people, as well as the increase in the use of drugs such as opioids.  Those who, like myself, have had the opportunity during the last year to meet people out of doors in various activities such as hiking have been exceptionally fortunate.  It is staggering to realize how large a number of people have been virtually without social contact over a period of many months.

Bizarre episodes brought about by the virus continue to occur.  Debra Hunter was sentenced on Thursday to serve 30 days in jail, with an additional six months’ probation, pay a $500 fine, and undergo a mental health evaluation along with anger management.  She had been creating a disturbance by arguing over-vehemently with an employee of a Pier One store and Heather Sprague, another customer in the store, started to record this confrontation on video – whereupon Hunter, who was not wearing a face mask, turned upon her with rage and deliberately coughed on her in an attempt to infect her.  Heather Sprague, who is currently being treated for a brain tumor, immediately tested herself afterwards to assure herself that she had not contracted COVID from this experience; Hunter has been directed to pay for this expense as part of her sentence.  Hunter has since apologized profusely, admitting her guilt and imploring various Facebook users not to penalize her children for her conduct; but James Ruth, who presided over the case, was not impressed. “We heard how it changed her life  . . . she’s getting nasty grams on Facebook and things of that nature and can’t go to the country club or where ever,” Ruth said.  “But I’ve yet to see any significant expression of her regret on the impact it had on the victim in this case,”

About 38.9% of all U.S. Marines are declining to receive COVID vaccines.  The official position of the Marine Corps is that vaccines are necessary to control the virus, so it is not clear why so many of them are rejecting it.  Some of the explanations offered are:  allowing others to receive it first, waiting until it becomes mandatory, getting it through other channels, or being allergic to the vaccine.  I don’t understand that last one at all:  how can anyone know whether or not he is allergic to it without receiving it first?  And what is the point of waiting until it becomes mandatory when it is already so patently advisable?  I’m hoping that the third option is the most frequent reason for declining.  I, for instance, applied to Safeway for a vaccine and actually received an appointment to get one—but when I received a notice from Fairfax County that I could get vaccinated some three weeks earlier than the date I had originally scheduled, and in a more professional environment, I immediately opted for that alternative.  It is possible, then, that many who are declining to receive the vaccine when it is offered by the military are actually receiving it from some other source.  Let us hope it is so.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 135,945,439; # of deaths worldwide: 2,938,750; # of cases U.S.: 31,868,478; # of deaths; U.S.:  575,568.

The progress of spring – The vaccine rollout in the U.S. – The vaccine rollout in Canada – Evening statistics

At this time of year the process of germination quickens to an almost breath-taking pace.  The tree branches are rapidly becoming covered with leaves; we are already seeing the last of the cherry and pear blossom petals fluttering to the ground; the redbud is flowering; daffodils and tulips are blooming in the neighborhood gardens; the forest floor is carpeted with wildflowers.  There is a kind of splendid insolence in this triumphant growth as it continues, as it does every year, unimpeded by any trials our species is undergoing. 

The rollout of the vaccines certainly was not without hitches in the beginning, but it is continuing steadily now.  Today as I passed by a CVS store I saw a notice that vaccinations are available; whereas, when I was attempting to get vaccinated earlier, CVS was not an option anywhere in the state.  The Biden administration has announced that anyone 16 and older will be eligible for the vaccine by the 19^th, two weeks earlier than originally scheduled.  Staples is offering to laminate people’s vaccine cards gratis; but I can’t help wondering whether such a step is altogether advisable.  It is possible that the cards will be further updated with records of booster shots in the future. 

At this rate the U.S. is vaccinating slightly over 3 million people daily.  It’s an impressive figure – more than one-sixth of the total global daily distribution – but one should not be over-optimistic.  At this rate it will still take about three months before 75% of the population will be fully vaccinated.

However, for what may be the first time since the pandemic started, Canadians are envious of Americans.  In December Prime Minister Trudeau boasted that he had procured a sufficient supply of vaccines for four times the amount of the nation’s population.  But up to this date only 2% of the population has been fully vaccinated, and in the meantime Canada has been undergoing a third wave of the disease, one severe enough to warrant a new lockdown. The lockdown is being implemented on a province-by-province basis; but Ontario, the most populous of these, yesterday issued a stay-at-home order that will last a minimum of four weeks. The CDC has announced that even fully vaccinated Americans should avoid traveling to Canada.  Canada has not produced any vaccines on its own, relying on imports; and it is evident that the delivery of these has undergone difficulties.  However, Pfizer is scheduled to start delivering 1 million doses per week and AstraZeneca has agreed to deliver 20 million doses.  Moderna and Johnson & Johnson vaccines are also approved in Canada, but neither of these has been able to deliver any appreciable quantity. 

It should be added that even with the recent upsurge Canada’s death rate from the virus is little over one-third of our own and its incidence rate is less than 2.8% of the population, as opposed to 9.5% of ours.

I was too tired to write down any impressions yesterday, so I do not have the statistics for the 8^th.  Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 135,275,791; # of deaths worldwide: 2,927,486; # of cases U.S.: 31,800,130; # of deaths; U.S.:  574,808.

Hiking on the Appalachian Trail and others – The decline of religion in the U.S. – Yet another Trump con game – Evening statistics

I went with the Vigorous Hikers today on the Appalachian Trail from Rte. 522, going over Compton Peak (but not stopping for the detour to the basalt columns, regrettably) to the Jenkins Gap trail, taking the latter to various roads and eventually to the Land’s Run Trail, up Land’s Run to Dickey Ridge, and up Dickey Ridge to the AT via the Springhouse Trail:  about 19 miles and 4200 feet of elevation gain.  The weather was clear, and very warm by the middle of the day.  In fact I could have wished it a few degrees cooler.  That last climb from the stream to return to the parking area at Rte. 522 is only about 400-500 feet, but it felt like much more while scaling it in the midst of 80-degree heat.  There was not a great variety of wildflowers, but the trail featured a large amount of bloodroot.  I don’t remember seeing them in such profusion anywhere else.  I met GP and BH on the last part of the hike.  They questioned me curiously about the plans of the Capital Hiking Club; in particular, I confirmed that the club indeed plans to resume hikes in August, though possibly with buses at greatly reduced capacity.  The Potomac Appalachian Trail Club (PATC), as they tell me, does not plan to resume hikes in the foreseeable future; we will have to wait until 2022 at the earliest before they will begin to consider organizing hikes again.

Religion is on the decline in the U.S.  Just 47% of the population are members of a church, mosque or synagogue, according to a survey by Gallup, down from 70% two decades ago.  Part of the reason is that the younger generations, starting with the millennials, are turning away from religion generally; but also the extreme right-wing politics that many of the mega-churches has alienated many of its followers. 

Perhaps, after all, religion is in a state of transition in this country and elsewhere.  God, says Don Benedetto, the saintly old priest in Ignazio Silone’s Bread and Wine, “does not attach very much importance to His name; on the contrary, at the very beginning of His Commandants, He ordained that His name should not be taken in vain.  Might not the ideal of social justice that animates the masses today be one of the pseudonyms the Lord is using to free Himself from the control of the churches and the banks?” 

It is related that when Robert Browning’s narrative poem “Sordello” was published, Alfred Tennyson tried to get through it, without success.  “There were only two lines in it that I understood,” he reported, “and they were both lies; they were the opening and closing lines, ‘Who will may hear Sordello’s story told,’ and ‘Who would has heard Sordello’s story told!'”

I was reminded of this episode when Donald Trump responded to the allegation that he defrauded campaign donors by including an easily overlooked pre-checked box on the donation page, which most donors did not see, that turned a single donation into a monthly contribution. As Election Day drew closer, the pre-checked box created weekly contributions.  The campaign has since been forced to refund $122 million to the donors (without interest, however – which means that he essentially has received an interest-free loan for this amount).  Today Trump published a disclaimer consisting of two sentences, and they were both lies:  “In fact, many people were so enthusiastic that they gave over and over, and in certain cases where they would give too much, we would promptly refund their contributions. Our overall dispute rate was less than 1% of total online donations, a very low number.”  The people who “gave over and over” did not do so voluntarily and the dispute extended to hundreds of thousands of transactions, amounting to nearly 11% of the total contributions.  Some of the donors have actually gone on record to protest – but only against WinRed, the fund-raising platform built for the GOP, and never against Trump himself.  What does it take to make people realize that this man is nothing but a common swindler? 

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 133,006,775; # of deaths worldwide: 2,885,207; # of cases U.S.: 31,559,735; # of deaths; U.S.:  570,247.  Today the total number of deaths nationwide was just over 7.5% of the global total, a far less disproportionate figure than in earlier months.  I am sorry to see that the published statistics for Mexico have not been updated even after its own government has stated that these are under-reported by half as much as the official totals.  This may be true of other nations as well.

Visit to New York and meeting relatives – Resurgence in NYC – The long-deferred 90^th birthday celebration – My relatives post-COVID – Another attack on the Capitol – Virginia begins Phase 1C – Evening statistics

I have been to New York, seeing relatives for the first time in well over a year.  Actually, there were many “firsts” associated with this trip.  On Friday my aunt and I had dinner together in her apartment, the first time I’ve sat down to dinner with someone indoors since the trip to Burke Gardens in October (and even then we took care to sit far apart from one another).  On Saturday she and I had lunch together at an excellent Indian restaurant, the first time I’ve sat inside a restaurant since the trip to Jim Thorpe in August, and the first time I’ve dined indoors at a restaurant with another person since the pandemic started.  Afterwards we went to the Frick, the first time I’ve been to a museum since January of 2020.  My aunt is still being cautious, which is understandable: the CDC has backpedaled on its previous statement about vaccinated people being unable to transmit the disease.  But my younger relatives are less worried, and I was able to embrace them when I saw them on Sunday – the first time I’ve had physical contact of this nature since the beginning of the pandemic. 

In New York City people are more rigorous about wearing facemasks while walking on the streets than people in the DC suburbs.  Even joggers for the most part wore masks.  Outside of that the city has been rallying with all of the vitality for which it is famous.  Restaurants are limited as to the number of customers they may serve at a time; but they are filled to the limits imposed by the prescribed capacity and are doing a thriving trade in takeout as well.  Greengrocers are stocked with flowers and fruits of all varieties, including several from abroad.  It is true that there are still signs of the toll that the pandemic has taken.  Traffic is much less congested and even the sidewalks are less crowded than before.  Dog-owners, who previously for the most part had been oblivious to the amount of space they and their dogs on leashes took up on the walkways, now step aside much more readily for oncoming pedestrians.  But things are beginning to move again, though perhaps not as rapidly or noisily as one might expect.

Outside of the fact that several relatives reside in the city, New York would not be my first choice for a travel destination.  I have the right to criticize the city, for I was born there.  The skyscrapers that form the chief feature of the cityscape are impressive rather than agreeable to look at, and the much-vaunted Central Park is not a patch on Rock Creek, in my opinion at least.  The proportion of pavement to park there is disproportionately high and there is little opportunity for elevation gain, whereas in Rock Creek Park one can go for miles on end without one’s feet touching either road or sidewalk, and there are numerous hills – some of them quite steep – to provide a bit of contrast to the flatter areas.  Riverdale, where my younger relatives live, is somewhat better, being in proximity to the Hudson as the river bank forms various little acclivities and glades in between them, but I would not make a special trip to see it.  Still, no one can deny the city’s impressive variety of restaurants, museums, theatres, and venues for amusement; and as the city is beginning to open up again, there is an undercurrent of excitement, and hints of future enjoyment to come.

My cousin, who had been a professional chef at a restaurant and who still teaches cooking classes, prepared a splendid meal on Sunday (including a succulent dish of lamb flavored with fresh rosemary and thyme that defies description), while I prepared a Queen Mother cake (a torte made with chocolate and almond flour, with beaten egg whites to provide the leavening); and we were thus able to celebrate my aunt’s 90^th birthday at last – long deferred after the actual event, which took place last July.  My aunt has had to celebrate this milestone piecemeal, so to speak.  Before the pandemic started we were in the stages of setting up a family gathering, so that my other cousins (who live in Chile, Florida, and Georgia) could converge in New York at a mutually convenient date.  Now my aunt must wait until quarantine restrictions in her children’s localities are lifted for them to visit her.  Thus in May my cousin in Santiago plans to arrive with a couple of her children to see her mother; assuming, of course, that such travel is feasible.  Until recently such a project seemed to present no difficulties, but in recent days the rate of infection has increased in Chile as it has elsewhere, and new bans on international travel are now a distinct possibility.  At all events I can get away now to visit her periodically; the quarantine regulations for those who are vaccinated have been greatly modified in most of the states.  For New York, quarantine is no longer required for domestic travel.

My cousin and his family all came down with the coronavirus the preceding year, as I have related in earlier entries, but I was happy to see that it has had no effect on their overall health.  “We were lucky,” as my cousin’s wife told me.  My cousin had the most severe case of the three, but he is quite recovered now.  He is even looking somewhat more fit than before, having taken to exercise more regularly after his health was restored; and the distressing loss of energy that came immediately upon his infection has now completely disappeared.

During this past weekend I was pre-occupied, as can been seen, with family matters; and news items had to take a back seat as far as I was concerned.  I am aware that the Capitol was attacked yet again during my absence from the DC area, this time by a delusional young man who was acting on his own initiative and who was in not a Trump supporter in any way – which is actually somewhat surprising.  But there is no pupil without his teacher:  now that Trump has instructed Americans at large that besieging the Capitol and killing those who guard it is a pleasant and diverting occupation for those who have too much time on their hands, we can expect to see many more demonstrations of this nature in the months to come.

Virginia is now vaccinating people in Phase 1C.  Unquestionably it is time.  Phase 1C includes all of the essential workers not covered in previous phases, which means those working in professions such as energy, water and wastewater removal (including plumbers), construction, food service, transportation, college and university faculty, finance, information technology, legal services, and hair stylists.  Anyone over 16 who does not fall into these categories can qualify for the vaccine, we are assured, by May 1^st, when Phase 2 begins. 

I have fallen down rather on tracking statistics during my weekend in New York.  I did record the cases and fatalities for Friday, April 2, but not those for Saturday and Sunday.

The statistics on April 2^nd as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 130,802,165; # of deaths worldwide: 2,850,152; # of cases U.S.: 31,314,625; # of deaths; U.S.: 567,600.  

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 130,150,894; # of deaths worldwide: 2,839,510; # of cases U.S.: 31,244,639; # of deaths; U.S.:  566,611.  

The upcoming election for state governor in Virginia – The Republican candidates – New lawsuits against Powell and Trump – Plans to see relatives – Evening statistics

We will be seeing a gubernatorial election in Virginia this coming November.  Virginia for a long time has been accounted a “red” state, but in recent elections the Republicans appear to have believed that Virginia was more-or-less a shoe-in and that any old candidate would do.  They have paid heavily for such an assumption.  Of the past 10 governors of Virginia, seven have been Democratic.  I still have memories of the 2001 election, when Mark Warner had launched his campaign; and the rival whom the Republicans had put forward was Mark Earley.  It would have been rank flattery to call Earley a “nonentity.”  He was simply a hole in the air.  I tended to vote Republican most of the time at that stage; but, even so, I hesitated to cast my ballot for him, and in the end I decided to opt out of voting that year.  After the election a friend worriedly asked me whether I had voted for a rabid anti-abortionist, which was a revelation to me – this being the first indication I had received that such a robot-like mediocrity was capable of having any opinions at all. 

At all events there will be no shortage of opinions in the upcoming election.  The leader among the seven Republican hopefuls is Amanda Chase, who has openly cheered the January 6^th insurrectionists as “patriots.”  If she indeed becomes the gubernatorial candidate, the Democrats will almost certainly win again.  The leaders among the Republican Party here would do well to remember that a significant number of Virginians live in proximity of Washington DC, many of them commuting there; and Trump and the narrative of the “stolen election” does not sit well with them.  Chase is the one most openly aligned with the seditionists, but at least three other contenders – Glenn Youngkin, Pete Snyder, and Peter Doran – are all using “voter fraud” as one of the planks on their platforms. 

The state government of Wisconsin has filed a suit against Sidney Powell to recover more than $100,000 in legal fees as a result of her failed lawsuit that sought to overturn the state’s presidential results.  Governor Tony Evers has filed a similar lawsuit against Donald Trump himself.  Whatever the results of these may be, they will at the very least bedevil Powell and Trump while they are struggling with numerous other lawsuits.  There is poetic justice that the judicial system that they abused for months on end is now being directed against them.

Tomorrow I go to New York to visit my relatives for the first time in a year.  At long last we can gather for my aunt’s 90^th birthday, more than eight months past its actual date.  The fact that we have all been vaccinated makes this meeting possible.  I am still being relatively cautious, driving up rather than using the train and I will be wearing a facemask in public places.

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 130,150,894; # of deaths worldwide: 2,839,510; # of cases U.S.: 31,244,639; # of deaths; U.S.:  566,611.  

The threat lessens for those who are vaccinated – The threat resumes for those who are not – The departure of Angela Merkel – Merkel contrasted with our statesmen – A new lawsuit against the ex-President – A literary disquisition about “The Ambassadors,” which the judicious reader is advised to skip – Evening statistics

There are some hopeful signs, despite the warnings that the CDC Director issued yesterday.  About 36% of the population in the U.S. has received at least one vaccine dose.  Even one dose has an efficacy rate of about 80%; the second dose is merely a booster that decreases the chances of infection still further.  At this point more than 50,000,000 people are considered fully vaccinated (about 15% of the national population).  Moreover, this rate of effectivity applies to asymptomatic cases as well as symptomatic ones, which means that the risk of vaccinated people transmitting to others is minimal – just as my friend BF maintained yesterday.  In addition, the U.S. is somewhat less vulnerable than many other countries on account of the large number of people who have been infected already and have since produced an antibody response.  The official number of these is over 30,000,000 but the real number may be as much as three times that amount. 

Rochelle Walensky’s concerns are by no means misplaced, however.  Even if, for example, 75% of the population is protected by vaccination or previous exposure, the remaining 25% is at grave risk.  The B.1.1.7 variant (the most common one at this point) is more transmissible and has a higher mortality rate than the earlier ones.  We can expect to see more deaths among younger people in the current surge, as has been occurring in most European nations.  Not all of the unvaccinated will be holdouts.  Significant distribution inequities are appearing in many areas.  In Michigan, as of mid-March, 28% percent of black people over 65 had received one dose of vaccine  and only 15% in Detroit – even though more than 60% percent of all senior citizens in the state have been at least partially vaccinated.  I have seen examples of this close at home.  Various friends of mine who are outside the 1A or 1B categories have made arrangements to get appointments for their doses far from their residences – in rural areas or even in other states.  I certainly don’t blame them.  Virginia’s rollout rate has accelerated, but it is still behind the overall national level; in Fairfax County vaccination rollout will not advance to the 1C category until mid-April.  But the fact remains:  my friends, the overwhelming number of whom are white, have the leisure and the opportunity for such an option, whereas a black or Hispanic person in the DC metro area is somewhat less likely to have the means for it – less likely to have access to a home workstation on which the necessary information can be obtained, less likely to be able to afford a day or several days off from work to travel to a distant vaccination site, less likely (if living in downtown DC) to have a car of one’s own, and so on.

Angela Merkel will be stepping down from her position as Chancellor of Germany.  An astounding 67% of the national population said that they wanted her to serve to the end of her term instead of stepping down earlier, even though she has retained the position for 18 years.  It is easy to see why.  Regardless of her policies, Angela Merkel has not given any of her relatives positions in the government; she has lived a lifestyle in which yachts, private jet planes, huge parcels of real estate, and expensive cars are, for some inexplicable reason, strangely absent; not being an overgrown child, she has no household servants to clean up after her or to prepare her meals; she lives in an apartment of moderate dimensions instead of an ornately furnished mansion; her private life has not been touched by a breath of scandal, either on the personal or the financial level.

Why can’t we get statesmen like this one?  Even the well-meaning ones here are quickly sucked up into the whirlpool of television interviews, photo shoots, book deals, extravagantly paid speeches for academic and corporate events, lavish houses requiring an incredible amount of upkeep, fashion-model-style wardrobes, and all the rest of it.  Trump of course is the most egregious example, but even Obama is working on a new memoir (Michelle’s having already reaped millions), earning 6-figure speaker fees, and striking a deal with Netflix.  Political leaders who were content to lead lifestyles very different from those of Hollywood actors and sports team athletes were not uncommon a century ago; now they have virtually vanished from the American political scene.

And while I’m on the subject of American political leaders, I will mention that yet another lawsuit has emerged against Donald Trump.  Officers James Blassingame and Sidney Hemby, members of the Capitol Police, have filed charges that Trump deliberately encouraged the insurrectionists of January 6th and thereby transformed the police officers into targets of attack.  It is to be hoped that other officers whose lives were placed in danger will be prodded into taking similar action. 

I know that at times I seem to obsess on the matter, but by now nearly three months have elapsed since the wanton and seditious attack on the Capitol as part of a failed coup d’état; and so far its perpetrator has undergone no substantive penalties for his treasonous actions.  Yes, certain organizations have withdrawn their support from him and his corporations; yes, he has been ordered to pay a few fines here and there; yes, he has been deprived of access to his beloved Twitter.  But up to this point he has not been directed to pay any amount that could make a dent in his financial holdings and he is in no immediate danger of serving the slightest amount of the prison time that he so amply deserves.  He still in short has the potential to wreak a great deal of damage; and I am anxious to see this savage wild beast declawed and toothless.

On this rainy afternoon I have been trying, without success, to plow through Henry James’ “The Ambassadors,” which admirers of The Master would have one believe is his crowning achievement.  The sad truth of the matter is that it is poorly written, lamely narrated, and morally askew.  For those unfamiliar with the novel – a group whom I greatly envy – it should be explained that the plot centers about the efforts of Lambert Strether, the protagonist, to reclaim Chad Newsome from living an idle and extravagant life in Paris back to the family business firm in Woollett, Massachusetts.  Chad is the son of Mrs. Newsome, a wealthy widow with whom Strether has a relationship that falls just short of an official engagement.  Mrs. Newsome makes it clear to him that they will marry only if Strether is successful in his mission to retrieve her son.  Within the course of the first few chapters I found myself scratching my head as to how she could imagine he would be capable of it.  He is so hesitant and timid in anything he undertakes, or even in anything that he says, that I began to wonder whether he would be capable of tying his shoelaces without assistance.

To continue, however:  In the course of his inquiries, Strether comes to find that Chad is currently associated with two French ladies, Mme. de Vionnet and her daughter Jeanne.  At first glance Chad seems to be on the verge of becoming engaged to Jeanne, but it soon becomes clear that he in fact is involved with the mother.  However, Strether is assured by one of Chad’s friends that this relationship is “a virtuous attachment”; and, implausible as this claim is, Strether desperately wants to believe it.  He is, as James makes clear (and I will admit that the portrayal of this aspect is one of the strengths of the novel), a deeply traumatized man.  He has lost his wife after a few years of marriage, and, unable to cope with being a single parent, has sent his young son to a boarding school, where the latter has contracted a fatal attack of diphtheria.  His professional career has floundered as well.  At the age of fifty-five, he is nothing more than the editor of a provincial review, which is barely kept afloat by Mrs. Newsome’s financial support.  It is no wonder that he wants to flee from his hometown and, as he begins to realize, from his prospective marriage as well.  When he comes to Paris he is dazzled by its variety and joie de vivre, and he quickly finds himself hoping that Chad’s defection from the plodding American businessman’s lifestyle is justified.

However, the introduction of Jeanne de Vionnet invalidates the entire premise of the novel.  It is possible, I suppose, to argue that the influence of a sophisticated older woman can be thoroughly beneficial for a young man, and in particular for a provincial youth reared in a restrictive Calvinist small town.  It follows that Mme. de Vionnet’s influence over Chad is more wholesome than his mother’s and by extension that – and this is the main theme of the novel – the apparently corrupt European tradition she represents is superior to the hard-and-fast straitlaced American morality that goes hand-in-hand with rampant commercialism.  It is an appealing theme, one that can provoke a great deal of debate on either side of the matter. 

There can be no argument, however, that it is preferable to be a child of Mrs. Newsome than a child of Mme. de Vionnet.  The influence of Woollett may be stifling and rigid, but Mrs. Newsome herself does not appear unduly tyrannical.  Chad is allowed a fair amount of freedom and plenty of money when he travels abroad.  He can have his fling, without too many questions being asked, and afterwards he can come back to be welcomed with open arms.  Sarah Pocock, his sister, comes into the novel later and she proves to be a raucous harridan; but that is much better, on any count, than being the spineless doormat that is Jeanne de Vionnet. 

This unfortunate young woman is deeply to be pitied, for two reasons.  First, she is shamelessly used by her mother and her mother’s lover as a screen for their liaison; and second, she is peremptorily married off, without having the least say in the matter, to a certain M. de Montbron, a man of whom we know nothing except that he has an extremely eligible income.  Mme. de Vionnet herself has been married off in the same way to her husband.  The marriage has not turned out well and the two have been living apart for years, but that does not prevent her from treating her daughter as badly as her own family treated her.  The odd thing is that James, in other novels, shows some degree of awareness of how misguided a system this was.  “The Awkward Age,” a novel written just four years earlier, contains the characterization of Little Aggie, whose chocolate-box style of prettiness appears to correspond with her apparently sweet and submissive nature.  The moment she is married off to a wealthy commoner, she promptly flings aside all restraint, cuckolds her husband, takes her own aunt’s lover for herself, and becomes a loud-mouthed chatterbox speaking nothing but the empty social jargon typical of her set. 

When Sarah Pocock, therefore, succeeds in doing what Strether signally fails to do – that is, persuading Chad to dump Mme. de Vionnet and return to the U.S. – I cannot feel the regret that James evidently intends me to feel.  I think that Chad has been embarked on very murky waters indeed, and that, in disentangling himself from Mme. de Vionnet and her dysfunctional family, he has had a lucky escape.

James could have made a stronger case for his theme if he had allowed Strether to link himself with Maria Gostrey, a clever and charming woman who is kind to him.  She is, in her own way, as sophisticated as Mme. de Vionnet, but without any of the latter’s turpitude (it’s a harsh word to apply to her, but I do not look kindly upon parents who abuse their children), and thus is a better-qualified representative of the beneficial European influence.  But Strether in the end will have nothing to do with her.  She is not a glamorous woman, and for that reason alone he rejects the love that she offers him.   In other words, he is every bit as superficial as the compatriots whom he condemns.

I have concentrated primarily on the thematic failings of the novel, and have said little about the narrative ones.  These, however, are legion.  James writes such clumsy and dreary prose!  Here is a typical sentence, early in the novel when Strether chats with Maria Gostrey for the first time:

“Though he was not shy – which was rather anomalous – Strether gazed about without meeting her eyes; a motion that, in talk, was frequent with him, yet of which his words often seemed not at all the effect.”

The first part may pass as a rather roundabout way of saying that Strether has a mannerism in conversation that makes him seem nervous even when he isn’t.  But, oh, that miserable final clause! –   enough to set any grammarian’s teeth on edge.  The novel is full of broken-backed sentences such as this one.  One is continually halted by the effort to parse the sentences in an attempt to extract some kind of sense out of them. 

Such passages, however, are positively sprightly in comparison with the leaden dialogue.  The sentences spoken by the characters, it is true, are generally less convoluted than the descriptive ones.  But they are equally circuitous.  Maria and Strether at one point discuss the qualifications Americans expect from marriageable young women:

“’I suppose that at Woollett you wanted them – what shall I call it? – blameless.  I mean your young men for your pretty girls.”

“”So did I,’ Strether confessed.  ‘But you strike there a curious fact – the fact that Woollett too accommodates itself to the spirit of the age and the increasing mildness of manners.  Everything changes, and I hold that our situation precisely marks a date.  We should prefer them blameless, but we have to make the best of them as we find them.  Since the spirit of the age and the increasing mildness send them so much more to Paris –‘

“’You’ve to take them back as they come.  When they do come.’”

According to Edith Wharton, Henry James spoke in real life exactly in the manner that Maria and Strether do here, with a seemingly endless stock of circumlocutions and digressions.  But surely no one else has. 

Then there is the lack of specificity, which injures the thematic point of the novel still further.  It is impossible, from the absence of any genuinely evocative passage, to visualize the city whose attractions Strether finds so irresistible.  In this I am not complaining that James makes no set descriptive passages in the style of earlier novelists who at times sounded like tour guides.  When Ford Madox Ford advised Jean Rhys “to introduce some sort of topography of that region [Paris], bit by bit, into her sketches,” she not only refused to follow this advice but “once her attention was called to the matter, she eliminated even such two or three words of descriptive matter as had crept into her work.”  Yet there is no doubt, from the numerous sharp observations of the turns of speech and of types of behavior exhibited by the various characters, that the stories of “The Left Bank” could not take place in any city other than Paris.  In contrast, the “Paris” of “The Ambassadors” could equally well be Cayenne or Yamoussoukro or any other city in which French is the main spoken language.  It is quite a comedown from the author of “The Bostonians,” who was able to give vivid impressions of Boston, New York, and a small Cape Code town, or of “The Aspern Papers,” with its brilliant evocation of Venice.  The enlarged vision Strether receives from his sojourn in this featureless “Paris” is sufficient to make him renounce the security of life in the U.S. forever, but for the reader it is simply a blur.

Why has this work been praised so extravagantly?  It is destitute of the qualities that could endear it to most readers.  Sentences so limp and so tortured as to be positively painful to read, paragraphs that run on for pages, characters who seem more like wraiths than living human beings, attempts at wit that result in tedium, settings that resemble nothing more than the blank wall seen in productions of “Waiting for Godot,” conversations that go round and round because no one seems capable of making a direct statement, let alone a straightforward answer to any question – it is almost like a primer in How Not to Write a Novel. 

I suppose that it is the theme that causes its adherents to overlook the novel’s glaring defects.  The theme is potentially a powerful one.  Capably rendered, it could stand as a thought-provoking challenge to the concept of The American Dream.  But it is too badly executed in this instance for the novel to be of much importance.  Die-hard Jacobites may laud “The Ambassadors” as much as they please, but the remainder of the reading public, as I believe, will continue to give it the cold shoulder.

Today’s statistics as of 10:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 129,454,440; # of deaths worldwide: 2,827,426; # of cases U.S.: 31,166,344; # of deaths; U.S.:  565,256.  

On the Bull Run/Occoquan Trail again – Does facemask wearing apply to the vaccinated? – The millennials compared with the baby boomers – Protestors at Salem, OR – Eric Trump in sorrow – Summer Zervos – Suez Canal unblocked – Tragedy continues in Myanmar – Evening statistics

(A somewhat longer entry than usual, since I was too tired to write one yesterday.)

I was on the Bull Run/Occoquan Trail again today, this time on the southern portion starting from Fountainhead.  I went with the Vigorous Hikers from the southern terminus to Kincheloe Soccer Park, where we had lunch and then turned back.  It was about 16 miles in all, with more than 2450 feet of elevation gain.  We went at a brisk but not a killing pace (about 3 MPH) and the weather couldn’t have been more cooperative:  cloudless sky, no wind, low humidity, temperatures approaching 70 degrees.  “It doesn’t get any better than this,” I remarked to MB as we were striding over the last mile of the hike, and she enthusiastically agreed.  During our return from the soccer field we met several members from the Wanderbirds group, who had started later.  At the trailhead itself we also met GP, the grand old man of hiking (as I call him), along with his wife BH.  I have already mentioned how, despite the fact that he celebrated his 90^th birthday this past December, he is still ascending and descending on the mountain trails.  He is, as he once told me, resigned to the fact that he is slower now than he had been in his prime.  But to remain inactive, to sit at home all day – unthinkable!  If my years prove to be equal to his, I can only hope that my attitude will be as positive.

RB, one of the Wanderbirds members I met on the return, said that she had never been on the trail before.  That remark puzzled me at first, for the Wanderbirds schedule has long featured an annual hike on the Bull Run/Occoquan Trail.  Then the explanation dawned on me:  the longer hike always began at Bull Run Marina and the moderate hike began at Hemlock Overlook, both of them ending at Bull Run Regional Park (the northern terminus).  It was quite reasonable, therefore, that RB had never seen the segment between Fountainhead and Hemlock Overlook.  I was reminded of an incident that occurred during one of the previous Wanderbirds hikes on this trail.  The Wanderbirds always offered the option of completing the entire length of the trail, provided anyone who chose this option could do so without delaying the majority of the hikers as they gathered at the bus awaiting us at the end of the hike.  On one year, when I selected this option, I was the only one who did so – as I thought.  After I got off of the bus I decided to set myself a challenge and try to complete the trail in 4½ hours; the trail at the time was 18 miles in length (it has since been rerouted slightly, and is now somewhat longer).  Shortly after I left the bus, WG decided that she also would attempt this option.  Had I been aware of this in advance, I would have waited for her.  As it was, however, I thought that I was on my own and went on with all due speed to achieve my goal.  She tried to catch up, asking hikers going in the opposite direction if they had encountered me.  I was about 500 yards ahead, was the answer to the first inquiry; I was about 1000 yards ahead, was the answer to the second.  When she asked a third couple whether they had seen me, they responded, “Oh!  You must mean the Man with a Mission.”  I suppose my expression had an appearance of concentration as I pacing ahead.  At that point she gave up and went on in solitude.  So I was quite taken by surprise when I arrived at the bus and was asked whether I had seen her.  Happily, she came in not much later than I did. 

During this hike we discussed among us how the vaccine would impact social matters generally.  BF, who is a surgeon, said that he does not wear a facemask when he sees patients.  His argument is that seeing the doctor’s face instead of a facemask gives his patients more confidence and that, according to the CDC, vaccinated persons cannot transmit the disease to others.  I can understand his position with regard to meeting people on an individual basis; but for my part, I intend to go on wearing a facemask in public places.  I’m not entirely assured that vaccinated people do not transmit the virus, no matter what the CDC might say.  The tests for the vaccines, as far as I can make out, concentrated primarily on how effective they were for ensuring that the severity of the virus if caught would be at so low a level as not to require hospitalization.  Whether or not vaccinated people could unknowingly become infected with the disease and then transmit it to others was at best a secondary consideration.  In any case, people will not obey a mask mandate in which some people are required to wear a mask and others are not.  For that matter, the CDC has expressed concern in the manner that several states have abandoned the mask mandates, with some reason.  In recent days the deceleration of the rate of increase has come to a halt and there has even been a reversing trend; new COVID cases have gone up 15% in the past two weeks.

My impression that matters are more difficult for generations younger than my own has been borne out by a recent report about the status of the older “millennials,” as they are called.  The eldest of these turn 40 this year.  Nearly 60% of them are homeowners, while 28% still rent, and the remaining 12% live with their parents or other family relatives.  Unsurprisingly, homeownership rates among black and Hispanic older millennials lag behind their white counterparts, as do rates among those who don’t have a college degree. Overall, homeownership rates among older millennials are lower than those of earlier generations.  This trend will affect the generations to come as well.  Children of homeowners are more likely to become homeowners themselves; with more people renting, it seems probable that a greater number of their descendants will become renters in turn.  Since rental payments are a good deal more volatile than fixed mortgage payments, we may see a situation thirty or forty years from now in which a large number of senior citizens face unstable conditions that render them uncertain from one year to the next whether they can afford to live in their current residence.  Savings rates, also, are lower among millennials – not because the millennials are reckless spenders, as the stereotype would lead us to believe, but because a significant number of them are saddled with student debt.  About 59% have saved $15,000 or more, and nearly 25% have saved $100,000 or more.  But the net worth of the average American millennial is less than $8,000.  Median household wealth was roughly 25% lower for those ages 20 to 35 in 2016 than it was for the same age group in 2007.  When adjustments for inflation are made, millennials earn 20% less than baby boomers did at their age. 

Antifa is currently holding a mass protest at the state Capitol in Salem, Oregon.  Those who have been driving by reported to police that their vehicles had been damaged by paint-filled balloons, rocks, and other hard objects being thrown at them as they passed.  Some pointed green lasers at the drivers.  About 200 protestors were equipped with riot gear, as well as handguns, bats, and various other weapons as they headed towards the Capitol.  Police issued a warning to the protestors for – try to take a guess.  Violation of gun laws?  Vandalism?  Assault?  Destruction of private property?  No – none of these.  The warning the protestors received was that they were attending an event without a permit.  So, obviously, if you want to smash other people’s cars, brandish handguns in public, and blind people with lasers, make sure that you first obtain permission from the state government for the occasion.

Eric Trump is heartbroken.  There is no reason to doubt it, for he said so himself.  The reason?  Well, long before he became President, Biden had established a pattern of commuting from Washington to Wilmington, Delaware (a trip that takes approximately 75 minutes by train or 2 hours by car) on weekends while serving in the Senate.  He continued this practice when he became Vice-President and now, having commuted to Wilmington three times in the past seven weeks, seems poised to do the same as President.  This circumstance has plunged Eric Trump into a state of existential despair, as he confided to an interviewer from Fox News.  But perhaps he can find solace in the fact that his own father visited a Trump Organization property, on an average, of once every 3.4 days of his four-year term. He went to one of his properties on 240 of the 418 weekend days of his presidency, i.e., 57% of his weekend days. And he played more than 250 rounds of golf in his term, about one round every 5.6 days.

If this circumstance distresses Eric to such a degree, one can imagine his reaction to the news that New York’s highest court ruled that Summer Zervos may be allowed to sue Donald Trump for defamation after he publicly called a liar for her allegations of sexual assault.  Zervos is a former contestant on “The Apprentice” who came forward with such claims during the 2016 presidential campaign.  Her suit could make no headway as long as Trump was a sitting president, but now that he is a private citizen Zervos will undoubtedly be added to the large number of litigants bringing lawsuits against him.

The Ever Given, the ship that clogged the Suez Canal, was unstuck at last yesterday.  The operation required some care. While the Ever Given was stuck, the rising and falling tides put stress on the vessel, which is 400 meters (a quarter mile) long, raising concerns it could crack.  Now other ships are able to pass through the canal again.  But there is a backlog of over 420 vessels waiting to go through at either end, and it will take at least ten days to clear it.  Dozens of others have taken the long alternate route around the Cape of Good Hope at Africa’s southern tip – a 5,000-kilometer (3,100-mile) detour that costs ships hundreds of thousands of dollars in fuel and in other expenses.

The death toll in Myanmar has now surpassed 520.  International pressure against the junta is finally mounting.  Saturday was the bloodiest day, resulting in 141 deaths; but the military has shot down protestors relentlessly on every day that followed.  Suu Kyi remains in detention at an undisclosed location.  Various other nations, including even China, have expressed concern.  The Biden administration has announced that the 2013 Trade and Investment Framework Agreement would remain suspended until democracy is restored.  The UN Security Council will meet tomorrow to discuss the matter and to determine methods of putting more pressure on the military government to restore the Suu Kyi administration that it has overturned.

Yesterday’s statistics as of 9:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  128,202,572; # of deaths worldwide: 803,547; # of cases U.S.: 31,028,438; # of deaths; U.S.:  563,168.  

I join the ranks of the inoculated – The third wave in Europe – Mistrust of the AstraZeneca vaccine – The Sputnik vaccine in Russia and abroad – COVID in Mexico and Brazil – The danger of a third wave in the U.S. – Our varying state regulations – Evening statistics

I received the second dose this morning and am now fully vaccinated.  As before, the process was admirably efficient.  I actually arrived somewhat early, but stations were available and I was directed to one after my appointment was verified.  I felt only the slightest prick when the needle was inserted and nothing more.  After that I sat in the waiting area for the prescribed ten minutes and then departed, clinging to the vaccine card so as to ensure that it would not be lost.  When I returned home the first thing I did was to scan it so that I would have an electronic copy as a backup. 

It is a great relief, although the modification to my behavior will not at first be very apparent.  I still will wear facemasks in public areas indoors and in crowded locations out of doors, such as Burke Lake.  I will feel somewhat easier about activities such as taking public transportation or dining at restaurants; but even so, I don’t plan to do much of either for the present.  I will undertake some travel, but at this point the only international trip planned is one in September for the French Alps – and even that is tentative. 

For it is apparent that the situation is now worse in Europe than it is here.  Nearly every country on the continent is undergoing a “third wave” of the virus, with daily infection rates ranging from 0.05% – 0.1% of the population of various nations.   The number of COVID patients in intensive care units in France has risen by 10% in the past week.  Doctors report that these patients are significantly younger than those who were infected during the first and second waves:  the majority are in the 30-65 year-old range, and many with no underlying conditions.  France has been losing 200-300 people daily, which, in the words of Benjamin Clouzeau, an ICU doctor at Bordeaux Hospital, is “like a plane crashing every day.”

“A few weeks ago, the people dying were very old, and somehow, we accepted that as a society,” he added.  “Now we are down to 200, 300 deaths a day, but it’s not old people dying anymore. These are people who still had 30 or 40 years to live.”

The variants apparently have played a role in the increase, but the main factor appears to be the delayed rollout of the vaccines, which has been considerably slower than ours.  Many countries relied heavily on the AstraZeneca vaccine; and when concerns about its linkage to blood clots halted its distribution, the virus had the opportunity to spread again.  Foreign travel in Europe may well be restricted for many months to come, despite the fact that many European nations depend on tourism as a major source of income. 

Speaking of vaccines, Russia has been exporting its Sputnik V vaccine to countries in Latin America, Africa and Europe to great fanfare.  But there is one country whose inhabitants have been slow in receiving it – namely, Russia.  The amount that was manufactured for domestic demand became seriously reduced after the vaccine’s export to other countries.  As a result, Russia has now made a deal with GL Rapha, a South Korean firm, to make Sputnik V doses and ship them to Russia.  Russia’s vaccination rollout is even slower than that of the EU.  It has vaccinated 4.4% of its population, compared with 10% in the EU and 26% in the U.S. 

Europe is not the only area facing difficulties.  Mexico’s government has acknowledged that the country’s true death toll from the coronavirus pandemic now stands above 321,000, almost 60% more than the official test-confirmed number of 201,429.  If that is correct, it means that Mexico’s death rate from the virus is one of the highest in the world, exceeded only by the Czech Republic and Hungary.  Even this estimate may be too conservative.  The number of excess deaths since the pandemic began is 417,000.  About 70% of these were listed as COVID-related on the death certificates; but experts say COVID may have contributed to many of the other excess deaths because these people couldn’t get treatment for other diseases on account of hospitals being overwhelmed.

Brazil is another country whose hospitals are on the verge of collapse as a result of the pandemic.  It has accounted for about 24% of the COVID-related deaths worldwide over the past two weeks.  The number of daily deaths average 2,400 in the past seven days; the average rate may go as high as 3,000.  Already there have been spikes of daily death counts well over that figure.  This past Friday the death toll was 3,650.  About a third of the deaths are occurring among people under 60.  The number of new infections is as high as 100,000 per day, putting no little strain on the country’s health care system.  Of Brazil’s 26 states plus its federal district, only one or two on any given day have ICU occupancy rates below 80% and more than half are above 90%.  Dr. José Antônio Curiati, a supervisor at Sao Paulo’s Hospital das Clinicas, the biggest hospital complex in Latin America, said that its beds are full, but that patients keep arriving.

It will not do to become too complacent here at home.  Case numbers are still high and, while we have reached a plateau as far as the daily increase of new cases is concerned, that plateau is at a rate of 60,000.  It is not a comforting figure if we are to experience a surge in cases similar that those going on now in Europe.  Many states are easing restrictions on mask-wearing and social distancing.  We have in fact quite a patchwork of virus-related regulations among the various states.  Consider the following:

In Arizona, planners of events with more than 50 people no longer need to seek approval first and all local mask mandates will be phased out (although face-masking is still “encouraged” – whatever that means).  Georgia, also, encourages mask-wearing but falls short of enforcing it.  Florida is no longer imposing fees or penalties on those who don’t follow social distancing practices and mask mandates, thereby rendering these limitations meaningless.  In Idaho the mask-wearing mandate applies only to visits to long-term care facilities.  In Iowa mask-wearing mandates and other restrictions have been lifted completely.  Mississippi has lifted its mask mandate, with the exception of the interiors of school buildings and restaurants.  Missouri, Tennessee, and Texas have lifted all restrictions, although individual localities may apply their own.  In Montana the statewide mask mandate, limits to gatherings (either social or public events), and curfews on restaurant have been lifted entirely.  North Dakota has had no mask mandate since January.  Oklahoma no longer requires masks in state buildings.  South Carolina no longer requires masks for entering state buildings or restaurants, and has no limit on large gatherings. 

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 127,745,079; # of deaths worldwide: 2,795,557; # of cases U.S.: 30,957,520; # of deaths; U.S.:  562,482.  

CERT training – Resumption of in-person religious services – More violence in Myanmar – Traffic jam in the Suez Canal – Hesitancy to accept the vaccine – Evening statistics

CERT training is now complete.  This last day consisted of a simulation of an emergency situation, that of rescuing people from a house battered by tornados.  The instructors said afterwards that we as a class did well   Although allowances must be made for the reluctance of instructors of volunteers to say anything that might sound like discouragement, I was pleased overall with our performance.  To be sure, we forgot certain details of procedure – for instance, instead of referring to the sides of a house as “A”, “B”, “C”, and “D” when reporting, I would talk of the house’s north or east exterior wall (I tend to think with reference to points of the compass).  But we worked together well, without disagreements and meshing our movements together smoothly; we followed instructions from the commander and reported to her all of the information we could glean; we “rescued” nine victims (only mannequins, of course, but some of them were heavy, and were a bit of a challenge to carry down flights of stairs and over uneven terrain) and then tended to them in the triage area.  The greatest reservation I still feel about participating in an actual emergency is that the protective gear we use can interfere with the tasks we perform:  it is not easy, for instance, to write legibly with hands encased in safety gloves, and the safety glasses tend to fog up when they are worn in conjunction with mask covering the nose and mouth.  But the exercise as a whole gave me more confidence that if an emergency does arrive I will be able at least to acquit myself passably.

It is curious to reflect that I was prodded into taking such training on account of the virus.  Several months ago I contacted the city government to inquire about ways of assisting the health care professionals, who at that time (and for many months afterwards) were undergoing great strain.  But the only positions available for volunteers required some degree of medical training.  Eventually, however, they contacted me to suggest this alternative.

During the drive back home I went by a church that posted a notice that it will be holding in-person services for Easter.  At this point Virginia regulations permit in-person religious services, with certain caveats:  congregants must sit six feet apart, they must wear masks, signage must be posted notifying people with COVID symptoms to stay away, and any items used to distribute food or beverages either must be disposable or washed or cleaned between uses between individuals who are not family members.  It is to be hoped that these relaxations are not premature.  But it is understandable that people wish to worship with one another again.  At this time last year when I wandered in the city on Easter Sunday I passed by a church whose priest was performing the Easter service out of doors – the building, of course, having been closed off – with himself as the sole attendee, patiently going through the entire liturgy even though there was no one present physically.  In all probability his dedicated performance of the service was being viewed by church members via Zoom; but it was a melancholy spectacle nonetheless.

Today is Armed Forces Day in Myanmar.  It originated as Resistance Day, commemorating Burmese resistance during the Japanese occupation during World War II.  Usually this annual holiday is a harmless affair celebrated with parades in various cities.  But on this occasion it led to violence and the deaths of dozens of protestors in many cities.  It is not certain how many were killed, but the death toll today could be as much as 114.  This does not include those who have been imprisoned and have met their deaths through torture or execution since the takeover, their number is estimated to exceed 300.  The top U.S. military commander is making a joint statement with other senior military commanders from countries around the world, including in Asia and Europe, condemning the violence and stating that the country’s military has lost credibility with its people.  International pressure has had little observable effect on the junta at this point, but it is possible that its members may be shaken, if only a little, by condemnation from fellow military commanders.

A giant container ship remains stuck sideways in Egypt’s Suez Canal, having been run aground by strong winds.  It has been immobile for five successive days and there is no definite timetable as to when it can be freed.  This incident has far-reaching implications:  at least 10% of the ships involved in maritime trade pass through the Suez Canal, including those carrying a significant percentage of the world’s oil supply.  Shipments of oil to Europe in particular are affected.  At this point 321 ships are haplessly waiting near Port Said on the Mediterranean Sea, Port Suez on the Red Sea, and in the canal system on Egypt’s Great Bitter Lake while authorities continue to make efforts to make the ship mobile again. 

According to a recent poll, about 25% of Americans will refuse to take any of the COVID vaccines.  This unwillingness to become vaccinated falls mainly among party lines,  with 36% of Republicans saying they will avoid the vaccine, compared to just 6% of Democrats.  I, at any rate, am not one of these holdouts:  my second dose is scheduled for tomorrow morning.

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:                 127,260,352; # of deaths worldwide: 2,788,753; # of cases U.S.: 30,916,454; # of deaths; U.S.:  561,997.  

Scouting on the Bull Run/Occoquan Trail/The shifting status of the COVID virus as news/Passover begins/Evening statistics

The Capital Hiking Club wishes to give its hike leaders the opportunity to take to the trails again in case they have remained relatively inactive over the months as a result of the virus-related restrictions; and to that end, it is setting up several training hikes.  The first of these, which I am to lead, goes along the Bull Run/Occoquan Trail.  The series of hikes is intended as a means of ensuring that the hike leaders will be up to the challenge of leading the proposed bus hikes beginning in August. 

The Bull Run/Occoquan Trail is slightly over 18 miles long.  For the most part it parallels Bull Run up to a point not far from where the stream drains into the Occoquan River; and, like many hikes that parallel streams, it goes up and down numerous ridges as a result of the gorges created by the creeks that run into the stream.  The ridges in this case are neither especially high nor precipitous, but there are several of them and the cumulative elevation gain of the entire trail in one direction is over 3000 feet.  Originally the plan was to begin the hike at Bull Run Regional Park, since the trail at the northern terminus has fewer hills, most of them with mild gradients. 

Accordingly I went there at 9:00 AM to scout the hike, anticipating few problems and expecting to end the hike at an early hour, possibly a little after 12:00.  The plan was to go there-and-back for about six miles to the “M” marker.   But the project proved to be unexpectedly difficult.

To begin with, it was extremely muddy.  The trail goes through a floodplain; and since it had rained overnight, there was scarcely a dry spot to be found.  My progress was slowed considerably; and it was extremely irritating to be forced to concentrate on maintaining my balance without slipping or sliding at every step I took.

Then, just under a mile from the starting point, I came across one creek that used to have a wooden footbridge, which was now completely washed out. 

It still would have been possible for me to continue, since my water shoes were in my backpack.  But I could not in conscience lead others to such an impasse and I was forced to investigate alternatives.  I did ask at the park office whether they had any plans to replace the footbridge, but there were none – at least, no immediate ones.  It could happen that a boy scout troop may be in need of a trail project to undertake as part of their training, in which case this matter would be assigned to them.  But obviously, such a contingency was not to be counted upon within the next couple of weeks.

In the end I drove to Hemlock Overlook, where a spur trail about ¾ mile long leads to the main trail at about 7 miles from the trailhead at Bull Run Regional Park.  Here I went on the trail without too much difficulty.  It was considerably drier than the portion of the trail near the park; there were muddy patches, to be sure, but they were negotiable and they occurred at relatively long intervals.  It is a little more challenging than the stretch beginning at the park, with a couple of rock fields and with three stream crossings that use concrete pylons as stepping stones.  But the hike leaders, as I think, should be able to meet challenges such as these.

The trail is noted-known for its abundance of bluebells, which are beginning to appear now and should reach their peak in mid-April (the usual time for this flower).  The area around the stream features many other wildflowers as well, of which great numbers are already in full bloom:  spring beauties, bloodroot, violets.  I once was assigned to lead a hike in this area for the Wanderbirds during a year when spring arrived exceptionally early – considerably earlier even than this year.  My co-leader TJ and I scouted the hike three weeks in advance; and when we did, we found that the bluebells were nearly at their peak.  TJ and I looked at one another in dismay when we saw this.  If the bluebells were at their peak at this point, there surely would be none left three weeks later, when the hike was to take place.  As it happened, we need not have worried:  true, the bluebells were indeed nearly gone on the day that we led the hike, but there were many other flowers in glorious profusion, including the brilliant yellow trout lilies and the deep purple spiderwort.  

The above may appear to be a good deal of space to devote to personal matters, and yet it is in a sense reflective of the national mood as a whole.  The amount of vaccinations that have been administered and the reduction of daily increases in infections and deaths seem have induced not merely a state of optimism, but one that almost might be described as indifference.  Yet the pandemic is far from over.  The incidence of daily case rates and deaths has gone down, but there are still well over 50,000 new cases and 1,000 new deaths every day.  Hospitals are no longer strained to the breaking point and the health care profession is generally less harried now than it has been in the past, but over 7,000,000 cases of the virus are still active.  About 9.3% of the national population has been affected by the coronavirus; that figure could easily become 20% cumulatively by the end of the year if infections continue even at this reduced rate.

But all the same the virus is no longer dominating the headlines.  There are indeed several other matters of interest.  Georgia has passed a new law that initiates changes to Georgia’s elections, including expanding early voting in most counties, requiring identification information for absentee ballots, and restructuring the State Elections Board to have more control over local election offices.  Two noted authors died yesterday:  Beverly Clearly, who wrote more than 40 children’s books, at 104, and Larry McMurtry, author of “Lonesome Dove” and “Terms of Endearment,” at 84.   The veteran actress Jessica Walter died Wednesday at 80.  Major General William Walker has been appointed by Nancy Pelosi as top law enforcement officer for the House of Representatives, the first African-American to occupy the position.  The suspect in the recent massacre at a shopping center in Boulder, where he killed 10 people, is being held in jail without bail while his attorney prepares his defense.  I’m not saying that these matters are unimportant.  But it is strange to see that the virus is no longer taking its place among them. 

Today is the first day of Passover.  Ordinarily this holiday does not involve mass gatherings in the manner of Easter or Ramadan, but it usually is celebrated with gatherings of numerous relatives under a single roof and various ceremonies at synagogues.  Many of the traditional activities have been reduced to virtual ceremonies, like those of last year; but less rigorously.  I myself plan to be with my relatives in New York next week, where we will celebrate the final day of the holiday in conjunction with my aunt’s 90^th birthday.  (We have the excuse that we will all be vaccinated by then.)  Easter will begin on the 4^th, and it will be interesting to see how many churches will revert to in-person services and how many will remain virtual.

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:                 126,673,096; # of deaths worldwide: 2,778,770; # of cases U.S.: 30,848,248; # of deaths; U.S.:  561,070.  

CERT Training – Buzzard Rock, Eagle Point, and Devil’s Elbow – Biden’s first press conference – Evening statistics

I came back from CERT training at 10:00 last night and was too tired to record the events of the day, which, for that matter, were not numerous.  The training itself was interesting.  We practiced search and rescue techniques, including carrying one of the trainers lying supine on a sheet down two flights of stairs.  Considering that it was the first time for most of us, we did reasonably well.  The trainer deliberately kept her eyes closed while she was being lifted and carried, and she said afterwards that she was hardly tilted at all and was unable to tell at any given moment whether she was being carried down the stairs or along flat ground.  It is not easy, in a narrow stairwell, to negotiate a litter with three people holding it up on each side and a seventh person in back to stabilize the victim’s head.  By sheer accident my position was at the end where her feet were resting, which meant that I and one other person were the first to descend the stairs in semi-darkness.  Even though another member of the class was in front to direct us, my experiences in hiking proved to be useful in such a situation, as it made me accustomed to walking on uneven surfaces and to looking downwards periodically in order to maintain my footing.

I can’t say that I feel a great deal of confidence about my abilities to be of use if a disaster should happen to strike the area, but at any rate I now have some idea of the tasks that need to be done and how to go about participating in them.  The final training session will occur on Saturday, when the class will assemble at the “Workhouse” (a former prison facility that has been converted into a group of artists’ studios) in Lorton and undergo a four-hour simulation of an emergency situation to test whether we can effectively put into practice the techniques we’ve been learning this past month.

I went with RS today to explore a route from his new place, which is located behind the foothills that line the Virginia bank of the Potomac River slightly east of Harpers Ferry.  We went up to the ridgeline, where we struck an unofficial trail to Buzzard Rock (not to be confused with the rock formation of the same name in the Massanuttens), a rounded boulder on top of a rock outcropping.  The fog in the morning was too thick to see much there, but when we went on to Eagle Point – where, even though it was also on a trail that is unofficial and sporadically maintained, features a bench for the convenience of the viewers.  The views there are somewhat too far to the east to see a good deal of Harpers Ferry; the view features the town of Sandy Hook on the Maryland bank, the Rte. 340 bridge, and an unnamed islet just east of the bridge.   From there we descended to the river bank, which was difficult:  there were no defined trails and the gradient was very steep.  Once we came to the bank, however, we went on another unofficial trail, but one that has been maintained somewhat more carefully.  We went to Devil’s Elbow, a rock field located at a bend in the river and then back up a few hundred feet to an unnamed overlook not far from the house.  As the description indicates, this hike reached viewpoints and landmarks not accessible by hiking on regular trails.  This meant, of course, that for many portions of the hike we could not go very quickly, particularly when ascending or descending   The distance we covered was perhaps no more than eight miles, but it was a significant exertion nonetheless – well worth the effort, however. 

On account of the hike I returned home too late to see Biden’s first press conference since he took office.  It’s impossible to access it from the reports:  predictably, all of the pro-Democrat sources say that he acquitted himself well and all of the pro-Republican sources say that he did not.  Fox News in particular called him out on what in their estimation is the gravest of shortcomings in a Presidential speaker:  he referred to notes while delivering his answers, thereby contrasting with the famously unscripted responses of his predecessor.  It would seem that Biden wishes to be certain of the facts before replying to a question, but perhaps he can silence such critics by renouncing this pernicious habit and giving hasty, ill-considered answers instead. Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 126,044,068; # of deaths worldwide: 2,766,595; # of cases U.S.: 30,771,687; # of deaths; U.S.:  559,727.  

COVID and the cherry blossom season at the Tidal Basin – A condolence call – Possibility of sedition charges against the besiegers of the Capitol – Sidney Powell’s defense – Evening statistics

The cherry blossoms are coming out, with peak bloom expected to fall between March 26^th and April 12^th.  At this time of year, people ordinarily congregate to the Tidal Basin to view the flowering there.  This year traffic and parking will be limited; and if the crowds become too full to permit social distancing, the park may be closed.  It is a scenario that is only too likely; ordinarily the crowds on weekends during peak season are so densely packed that walking around the perimeter becomes difficult, particularly along the portion where people are compressed within a narrow walkway going across the Kutz Bridge.  One of the advantages I enjoyed when I worked on a project in a building close to the 14^th Street bridge is that I could walk to the Tidal Basin during lunch break on a weekday, when the crowds were much less full.  That was many years ago, of course.  In recent years, after I retired, I would take the Metro on a weekday to the Smithsonian station in order to reach the Tidal Basin, but that option was out of the question last year.  It may be possible for me this year, since I will be fully vaccinated this coming Sunday.  But the matter becomes an academic one if the park is closed altogether.

JK lost his mother a few days ago and I attended the viewing this evening.  He has been undergoing a difficult time, independently of his loss.  He was an exceptionally vigorous hiker, at one point finishing as one of the lead participants for the One Day Hike (an annual event in which hikers go over 100 kilometers of the C&O Canal towpath in a day).  In early days of my own hiking I encountered him in various group hikes and looked on enviously at the ease and speed he went up precipitous ascents.  Eventually I was able to hold my own with him, but I never was as comfortable on the steepest ascents as he was.  In recent years, however, he has slowed down somewhat; and in November he was hospitalized for treatment of blood clots that had somehow migrated to his lungs.  It is unclear how he could have got them:  he has never smoked in his life, is as lean as a greyhound, and has for years obtained an abundance of fresh air and exercise.  He has regained a measure of strength since he was discharged and is able to go over various hills in Prince Georges County, and he hopes to be able to attempt hiking in the mountains again soon. 

At the viewing there was a slide show of various photographs showing his mother on various occasions and family outings.  She lived to be 91 and appears to have led a full life.  Even so, I have no doubt that her passing came as a shock to her children.  It generally happens that way; the parent is quite elderly and in a precarious state of health, the relatives more or less expect to lose him or her soon; and yet they are caught offguard when death actually occurs.  It was that way with my father, who lived to see his 97^th birthday 

New developments have occurred in the aftermath of the January 6^th riot.  Sara Carpenter, a retired police officer who was arrested today for participating in it, said that she went on Trump’s orders.  There is no word as to whether this claim may lead to charges being brought against Trump himself as a result of the investigation after the riot, but at any rate it is possible.  More importantly, Michael Sherwin, the federal prosecutor, has said that at least some of the rioters could be charged with sedition.  I have held that the rioters, or at any rate the ringleaders, should be so charged from the day that I learned about the besiegement of the Capitol, and felt some dismay that so many of them were charged with misdemeanors only; so it is a gratification to discover at last that these charges are being contemplated.

In addition, Sidney Powell has responded to the lawsuit filed against her by Dominion Voting System, by saying that “no reasonable person” would believe that her false conspiracies about the 2020 election were “truly statements of fact.”  She has made this astonishing claim in a court filing no less astonishing, asking a federal judge to dismiss the $1.3 billion defamation suit on that account.  That is to say, she appears to think that people have a right to slander anyone and anything they please, provided that they don’t believe their own lies.  I fear that I am not among the people whom she would consider “reasonable,” although I will strive to moderate my expectations.  I desire merely to see this infamous wretch’s filing dismissed with insulting speed and decision, followed by her being publicly disgraced, impoverished, and debarred as a result of the adjudication of the Dominion Voting Systems lawsuit.  I do not ask for anything more.

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 124,789,223; # of deaths worldwide: 2,745,378; # of cases U.S.: 30,636,243; # of deaths; U.S.:  556,880.