Author: betula54

Morning statistics – The virus hits home – The permanency of the virus – The amazing case of Vietnam – Authoritarianism and democracy compared – Hillary Clinton on the protesters of Michigan – Life during retirement – Modified rapture – The new epicenter – The proposed relief bill – Farmers’ Markets and wine tasting rooms – Sourdough bread at last – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 7:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 4,645,386; # of deaths worldwide: 308,990; # of cases U.S.: 1,484,287; # of deaths U.S.: 88,507. 

BL from the Vigorous Hikers has contracted the virus and apparently has had it for the past two weeks.  He is extremely fit but he is also in his late 70s and he has had heart trouble in the past, so he definitely is at risk.  I have had relatively little contact with him in the most recent hikes with the group.  It is unlikely that I would receive any infection from him directly; but I have encountered others who have had more extensive contact with him.  No one else has had any symptoms, but obviously I need to be cautious.  The weather for the next proposed hike of the group is supposed to be fairly miserable, so I probably will not be joining them in any case.  A disturbing feature that emerged from this case is that BL did not undergo any testing because the tests are providing a number of false negatives.  He has had a mild fever which subsided within a few days and has not returned, so his case is presumed not serious.

The WHO has said that the virus will not disappear over the course of time.  This statement is consistent with the views of Dr. Fauci, who said that the chances of the virus being eliminated are virtually nil.  Eventually, it seems, we will simply have to live with it, as we do with the flu, accepting the fact that it will claim several thousand every year.  Vaccines are being developed and treatments are being refined, and in the end it seems likely that we will have to apply a mixture of prevention and cure, just as we do with the flu or any other infectious disease.  The effects of this one are more far-ranging and debilitating than most, but we will have to use the same methods of emerging from the pandemic as we did from the pandemic of 1918.

Vietnam continues to astonish other nations.  Despite the fact that it shares a border with China, it has less than 300 virus cases among it 97 million citizens and no deaths.  The WHO, which has declared its suspicions of data from numerous other countries (Brazil and Iran, for instance) does not see any reason to doubt these figures.  Vietnam instituted travel restrictions even when the WHO was advising against them (it has since done a complete volte face), closed the 870-mile border with China, set up testing labs with admirable efficiency, directed the population to wear masks in public (well in advance of the majority of other countries), banned indoor gatherings of more than 20 people and outdoor gatherings of more than 10 people, and set up continual communication from the government to the populace about such matters as the proper way to wash hands and the need to accept temporary economic hardship for the sake of ensuring public safety.  The Vietnamese have even managed to donate face masks to other countries, even those, such as France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U.K., that are wealthier but that have responded to the crisis much less effectively. 

Sadly, it appears that a country with an authoritarian government is capable of operating more smoothly than a country with a democratic one – assuming, of course, that the head of such a government knows what he is doing.  The problem is that so few of them do.  The attitude of the Vietnamese government appears to be that of Elizabeth I in 16^th-century England; roughly, it can be summarized as “Let people think whatever they like, as long they do what I like.”  Nguyễn Phú Trọng keeps a low profile; he does not set up a cult of personality or live in ostentatious luxury, and as long as you don’t challenge his political supremacy or criticize the Communist party, you are left in peace.  But for every Nguyễn Phú Trọng, there are at least a dozen egomaniacs like Kim Jong-un or Jair Bolsonaro or Vladimir Putin who simply cannot exist without receiving or extorting public declarations of worship on a daily basis.  It is true that our own President has a similar mindset, but here at any rate we cannot be compelled to give him the accolades he so desperately craves.  At this stage people complain about his actions freely and satirists such as Andy Borowitz gleefully mock his numerous follies (though I am bound to say that they appear to have some difficulty in exaggerating the reality). 

Hillary Clinton has condemned the protesters at Lansing, MI, in the strongest possible terms, accusing them of “domestic terrorism.”  Unlike some of my friends, I am not an admirer of this lady.  I have worked in classified environments; and had I been guilty of some of the deeds she committed I would have been fired, and possibly even arraigned, so I do not look kindly upon her taking on special privileges and considering herself above the law in this respect.  Her hedging on this point was a major faction in her losing the 2016 election, and she has only herself to blame.  I indeed ended up voting for her myself – so great was the aversion that Donald Trump inspired in me, even then – but I held my nose when I did so.  On this point, however, I am completely in agreement with her.  Of course the stay-at-home restrictions are inconvenient to many, perhaps even costly to some; but that does not justify their marching on the state capital as if it were an enemy city to be captured and occupied.  And Trump’s essential frivolity in encouraging such a revolt highlights his shortcomings as a leader; instead of working in concert with the state governors, he deliberately tries to undermine their efforts. 

Like the heroine of The Mill on the Floss, I have come into the knowledge of what it is “to get up in the morning without any imperative reason for doing one thing more than another.”  The question may be asked:  wasn’t my condition already like this after I retired?  And the answer is:  most emphatically, no.  I did not, after all, sever all connections with my fellow-creatures when I stopped going to an office every day.  There were arrangements that had to be made to set up pension payments and medical insurance; there were several long-deferred projects on the house to be done; there were events to organize and other events to attend; there were trips with various to hike across various parts of the world.  For three years I was Director of Trails for the Wanderbirds Club, setting up the schedule for weekly hikes and then recruiting leaders for them – quite a time-consuming business, one I could not easily have done had I still been working full-time.  My term with that club has ended but since then I occupied a similar position with the Capital Hiking Club.  Then I generally led two or three hikes every quarter, and of course these had to be scouted and involved various other preliminary and follow-up tasks.  Again, I was able to visit friends who lived out of the state more readily than I could when I was continually working, and I was eager to take advantage of such opportunities.  On the whole, I had no trouble filling up my days.  It is different now.  There are occasional interactions with others, but my life for the most part is solitary.  Even after the restrictions lift, my social life won’t come back all at once.  People will remain cautious even after the stay-at-home orders end, and there will be a reluctance to attend the larger gatherings that will, I suspect, last for some time.

Some good news at last.  Italy has had its lowest death toll in ten weeks and feels confident to begin a staggered re-opening.  Spain and Turkey also have had the lowest death tolls since mid-March, and Ireland has had the least number of new cases since mid-March.  In general, the pace of the virus appears to be slowing down in Western Europe.  Russia, unfortunately, is getting an accelerating rate of new cases. 

The WHO declares that North and South America are the epicenter of the virus at this point.  Brazil has now surpassed Italy in the number of cases, as predicted.  At this point only the U.S, Russia, Spain, and the U.K. have more cases than Brazil.  Mexico’s death toll is listed 4,767 but this is almost certainly an under-estimate.  Tijuana’s morgue, for instance, has run out of space for bodies.  In Juarez a worker has stated that he is now obtaining 80 bodies per week from hospitals, whereas the normal rate is 25 per week. The country has almost one of the lowest test rates in the world, about 1,200 tests for every one million people; even Brazil has three times as many tests per million. 

The proposed relief bill has passed through the House but is reported to be “dead on arrival” for the Senate.  Nancy Pelosi has stated that she is “open to negotiations” but the remarks of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer concerning Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell – “what alternative universe is he living in?” – suggests that any negotiations conducted between the two parties will be undertaken in no very cooperative spirit.

One should speak cautiously of Senate Majority Leaders, to be sure.  One never knows what triumphs may be in store for them.  It is of course extremely doubtful that Mitch McConnell will leave any significant mark on the history of our nation, but he conceivably might one day lead a majority in the Senate.  One never knows.

My gloomy predictions about Farmers’ Markets appear to be mistaken.  The Historic Market of Roanoke re-opened yesterday.  Vendors have to wear face coverings and their stalls have to be some distance apart from one another, but the market is operative again.  Again, wine tasting rooms are open again in Oregon.  Similar restrictions apply but at least they haven’t fallen by the wayside.

I tried setting up a sourdough starter again, and today I had reasonable success.  The loaves did not rise as much as I had hoped but they did rise and the texture was light and firm.  I may have to vary the recipe.  When I began kneading the mixture after the first rising it was so nearly liquid that I felt as if I were kneading gelatin.  It became firmer as I added more flour but I found it difficult to get it to the point that it was no longer sticking to the board.  At this point the bread from the starter does not have the distinctive acid taste one associates with sourdough; that comes later as the starter begins to age.

One factor that may have assisted me was the warm weather this weekend, which helped to accelerate the starter’s rising.  We must value it while we can; the forecast is for rather cool and damp weather this coming week, with rain on Friday and Saturday.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 4,716,793; # of deaths worldwide: 312,380; # of cases U.S.: 1,507,686; # of deaths U.S.: 89,591.

Morning statistics – Dr. Fair – National parks – Walking on the Cross-County Trail – An enthusiastic hiker – Earthquake in Nevada – The USS Theodore Roosevelt again – Beaches in the northeastern states – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 7:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 4,546,070; # of deaths worldwide: 303,863; # of cases U.S.: 1,457,649; # of deaths U.S.: 86,912.  The U.S. currently accounts for over 41% of the active cases worldwide.  The percentage of severe cases is slightly less – a little under 36%; but that is what is known in technical terms as “small consolation.”  

Dr. Joseph Fair, a virologist and epidemiologist, was hospitalized with the virus about three days after taking a crowded flight from New Orleans, where he had traveled to give assistance with the concentration of illness there.  He had taken what are at this stage considered the usual precautions:  wearing a mask, using wipes for his hands, traveling directly to his home once he deplaned, and not venturing out afterwards.  He hypothesizes that he contracted the virus through his eyes – droplets can land on the eyes as well as on the nose and mouth, and they are not protected by the masks.  Initially his symptoms resembled those of flu, but his breathing became more labored.  He asked to be put on oxygen rather than to be intubated and eventually he obtained relief.  He is now in fair condition, but he says of the experience:  “You don’t want to have it, that’s all I have to tell you. You don’t want to spread it on to anyone that is at any point at a high risk, because, you know, looking at me, healthy and exercising and all of that, I can’t imagine being someone with a high-risk condition.”

National parks are re-opening, despite fears that such moves may be premature.  The Everglades, Smoky Mountains, and Glen Canyon are already open, and Zion Canyon is on the verge of opening as well. 

Today was a fine day at last, warm and sunny.  I decided to take full advantage of it, and I did not wish to drive very far.  So I went to a residential neighborhood close to Lake Accotink.  From there I took the Lake Accotink Trail to the Cross County Trail, took the Cross County Trail south to the Occoquan River, and then returned – about 29 miles in all.  There was not any single very challenging ascent, of course, but there were little climbs here and there, amounting to about 1000 feet in all.  The hike was a feast for other senses beside that of sight:  birds were continually in chorus and there were many scents of the forest to savor, particularly honeysuckle, which in some places was almost overpowering.  The parking area for the lake was, as I expected, closed, so I did well to take the approach that I did.  I used my hiking pole, for the CCT has several places where one can be of use, and it also provided a warning to people who otherwise would not obtain social distancing protocol – but whenever I came across a group sprawled across the trail I had only to raise my pole up and down, and they got the message at once, hastening to fall back into single file.  The foliage was thick and green, and there was of course a great variety of trees, very different from the forests of the West:  beeches, with their pewter-grey trunks; birches with bark pealing like paper; mottled sycamores; wide-girthed oaks; tall maples with their lacy leaves.  The Pohick Valley was well-shaded and very refreshing in the heat (the temperature reached the high 80s) and the Occoquan River gleamed and sparkled in the sunlight.  The trail is notable for “fair-weather” crossings – that is, stream crossings along concrete pylons that project above the stream’s surface.  As the name indicates, they can be slippery when wet and if the rain is heavy enough they can get submerged altogether.  On a fine and clear day, as this one was, they provided little difficulty.

I know that I emphasize hiking a good deal in these notes, but I should point out that many have done more than I have.  Sarah Hazlitt may provide an example.  She was the wife of William Hazlitt, the foremost literary critic of the day, intimate friend of Wordsworth and Coleridge, and great promoter of the English Romantic poets generally.  Unfortunately, he was also an incorrigible skirt-chaser.  Sarah Hazlitt had resigned herself to his infidelities early on during the marriage, but when he began to spoil their son rotten (Keats called the child “a little Nero”) she decided that she had had enough and readily agreed when Hazlitt, having gotten infatuated with his latest bimbo, proposed a divorce.  A divorce, in Great Britain during the early 19^th century, was not an easy matter.  The only way it could be obtained within England itself was through an Act of Parliament, which meant that it was barred to all except the very wealthy.  The alternative was to go into Scotland, where the laws were more lenient and the procedure cost considerably less.  Sarah Hazlitt agreed to take up temporary residence in Edinburgh in order to divorce William on the grounds of adultery.  Traveling such a distance for women on their own could be quite hazardous and was certain to be very uncomfortable, so Sarah’s friends were puzzled by her enthusiastic attitude as she made preparations for the trip.  One friend wrote in bewilderment that it was impossible to make her “look on her journey to Scotland in any other light than a jaunt.”  Once she arrived in Edinburgh she did the necessary paperwork and waited for the lawyers’ response.  But if the word “waited” conveys the notion of a forlorn woman in dismal hired lodgings, perhaps knitting dozens of stockings to while away the time – you can dismiss that image.  First she walked to Roslin Castle and back (17 miles); then she went to Glasgow through the Trossachs, going by boat from Newhaven to Stirling, then the rest of the way on foot – 170 miles in a week; then she walked through the highlands for at least another 100 miles; and, after taking a canal boat to Glasgow, crossed the Irish Sea and walked there for another 10 days; finally, after her return, she walked from Edinburgh to Dalkeith to see the Duke of Buccleuch’s painting collection (another 14 miles round trip).  By then the paperwork was completed and she returned to her home in England, a free woman at last, and rid of the encumbrance of her deadbeat husband.  So I seem at times to obsess on the subject, I beg the indulgent reader to consider the case of Sarah Hazlitt, the woman who made her divorce the occasion for a grand hiking tour.

An earthquake whose magnitude is 6.5 struck western Nevada, with tremors being felt from California’s Central Valley to Salt Lake City.  No deaths were reported, although the main highway between Reno and Las Vegas was damaged.

Five sailors on the USS Theodore Roosevelt have tested positive for the virus and are in quarantine.  Will any enterprising lawyer initiate a lawsuit on their behalf against Thomas Modly for so blatantly disregarding his responsibilities and ignoring the warnings of the ship’s commander?  I would like to see him well-punished for his squalid behavior, but unfortunately there is little chance of it.

New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Delaware will open their beaches for Memorial Day weekend.  Contact activities such as volleyball or football will not be allowed, but swimming and walking will be permitted.  So possibly the businesses that are dependent on the beaches’ visitors during the main season will be in less dire shape than originally expected.  But it is difficult to see how restaurants will fare under these circumstances. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 4,621,115; # of deaths worldwide: 308,132; # of cases U.S.: 1,483,994; # of deaths U.S.: 88,485.  Brazil’s case count will probably surpass Italy’s by tomorrow and Russia’s may surpass Spain’s within two days, making it second only to the U.S. in the number of cases.  China claims to have less than100 active cases at this point. 

Morning statistics – Discretion the better part of valor – Shenandoah National Park – Burke Lake and Lake Mercer – Social distancing on the trails – The spring season advances – The bars of Wisconsin – A funeral takes its death toll – Low death rate in Russia – Effects of the virus in Iran – Trump on the immunity of young children – Allergies mimicking the virus – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 4,454,038; # of deaths worldwide: 298,774; # of cases U.S.: 1,430,348; # of deaths U.S.: 85,197. 

Our country has been – but a thought occurs to me, somewhat belatedly perhaps.  During the course of these notes I have been referring to friends and personal acquaintances by their initials only instead of their full names, in case they might not like it if the notes become public.  For figures whose names are already reported in the newspapers I have naturally shown less restraint and have used their full names.  It now occurs to me that if this memoir should be brought to the attention of our President, he might take it into his head to make himself personally disagreeable to me; and he is not without subtlety and some ingenuity when he chooses to make himself disagreeable.  Mere prudence dictates that I observe the same amount of discretion towards him that I have shown to others.

So, as I was saying, our country has been suffering from a sad attack of DT lately . . .

Shenandoah National Park will be re-opening in phases, starting with portions of Skyline Drive and the trails.  The various facilities at Dickey Ridge, Elkwallow, Loft Mtn., etc., will probably remain closed for some time to come.  Even though it is a national park, the management will be taking its cue from Virginia’s schedule of phased re-opening.  At this point no date has been set, but with luck we will be able to hike there in June.  My friend LH reports that she has seen cars parked at the Panorama lot just outside of SNP, which means that people are getting on the trails anyway, despite the fact that they are officially closed and that people are forbidden to cross the boundary into the park itself. 

This observation led me to try getting into Burke Park by parking in a residential area that adjoins the main trail around the lake.  It worked perfectly; there were many cars in the neighborhood where a short dirt path goes between the street and the main lake trail, and when I got onto the trail it was evident that many others had chosen this option.  In addition, as I discovered on my return home, several cars were parked along the shoulder of Rte. 123 nearby to the closed entrances.  Since the circuit around the loop is less than six miles, even when taking the segment that adheres to the curves of the lakeshore instead of the straight paved path, I went along the South Run Trail to do the Lake Mercer loop as well.  Both the South Run Trail and the Lake Mercer loop pass by many other residential neighborhoods, and many people had taken advantage of this proximity to use the trails despite the closure of the official entrances; yet on the whole there were less people than usual.  It was cool and very cloudy, but not cold and without rain.  Both lakes are artificial, being created from dams that are used for flood control.  They are quite scenic nonetheless; Burke Lake in particular contains an islet that is used as a sanctuary for waterfowl, and in addition to the usual geese, ducks, and loons it is possible to see herons as well and even a bald eagle or two on occasion.

People behaved fairly well on the whole.  Bikers were less likely than before to ride in tandem and most people were careful about the social distancing guidelines.  There was room for improvement, of course.  About a third of the couples I encountered would not fall into single file when one approached them from the opposite direction, but the trail was broad enough to make this matter less than it might have done on mountain trails, which tend to be narrower.  The majority of the dog owners had their dogs on leashes and were conscientious about pulling them aside as other pedestrians approached them.  There was indeed one darling Mr. Muffykins without any leash at all, whose playful gambols threatened to impede my progress and to whom I was on the verge of administering a polite kick for the purpose of sending it spinning across the trail; when its owners happily called it back to their side, and the encounter passed without incident.

Most of the flowers of early and mid-spring are past their bloom now.  The blackberry bushes, however, were flowering, which is an encouraging sign.  If by any chance the effects of the virus should lead to a food shortage in the summer, I can venture into certain areas of the forest where I happen to be aware of concentrations of such bushes and pluck as many berries as I may need, and thus of dessert at any rate I will be able to obtain an abundance.

I should perhaps not be overly severe on the lapses of my fellow-pedestrians on observing social distancing when I compare them to the residents of Wisconsin.  Governor Tony Evers’ stay-at-home order was set to expire on May 26^th, but the Wisconsin Supreme Court, urged by the Republicans in the legislature, ruled that the mandate was not valid, since the governor did not work it out with the state legislature.  This decision was announced yesterday, and when it came out the bars immediately opened their doors again and patrons flocked to fill them, none of them wearing masks, as densely packed together as members of the congregation of an evangelical church. 

A group of mourners attended a funeral in South Carolina during the first week of March, before the social distancing guidelines went into effect on March 16^th.  A large number of them congregated together and, unknown to any of them, one of them was already infected.  At this point six of them have died from the virus. 

Although Russia has the third largest number of coronavirus cases in the world at this point, its mortality rate is suspiciously low:  0.9%, while countries such as France, the U.K., and Italy are in the 12%-14% range.  However, Russia does not appear to be counting deaths in which the virus was a proximate factor.  The WHO is currently discussing the matter with Russian authorities, several of whom at any rate profess to be anxious about the accuracy of their assessments and who may be willing to recalculate the death tally.

Iranians appear to be chafing under their regime as a result of its handling of the virus.  Despite the warnings from Iran’s Minister of Health, the government insisted on holding public celebrations for the anniversary of the Islamic Revolution (February 11^th) before issuing guidelines about social distancing, many religious leaders kept mosques open while the infections multiplied, and the Fatimah Masumeh of Qom was also kept open well after infections were detected.  Medical equipment is in short supply at hospitals and many Iranians are voluntarily helping out by contributing masks, gowns, and food.  The numbers of cases and of deaths have been consistently under-reported – by as much as a factor of 8-10, according to some experts. The government is essentially split into two parts:  the elected government headed by President Hassan Rouhani and the Revolutionary Guard of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.  Khamenei has the real power, but the growing unpopularity of the Revolutionary Guard may give Rouhani the opportunity to dislodge them.  The collapse of oil prices is aggravating tensions as well. 

It is difficult to know what outcome to hope for.  I remember working in 1983 for the University Research Foundation on a project whose staff included several Iranian emigrés.  I asked one of them when he thought his country would return to a less authoritarian government after the changes brought about by the 1979 revolution.  He replied sadly, “The country is trashed and it will remain that way for a long time.  It will not be fit to live in during my lifetime.”

Donald Trump has urged re-opening schools on the grounds that “this is a disease that attacks old people” and “it’s had very little impact on young people.”  These remarks contradict the warnings of Dr. Fauci, whom I believe to be slightly better informed on such matters, to say nothing of the documented deaths among children as little as five years old.  And even if it were shown that the virus miraculously spares all children, the teachers are somewhat older and thus more susceptible.  There are times when, even with the most charitable feelings towards President Trump, you can’t help thinking that he ought to be in some sort of a home.

I spoke with RK tonight.  She has been suffering allergies from the pollen.  One complication is that the symptoms can initially be similar to those of the virus.  However, she has no fever and no debilitating fatigue, so the chances are she is undergoing the usual issues she faces at this time of year.  She has been much more cautious than I have, getting all of her groceries delivered and hardly venturing outside at all.  It’s unlikely that she contracted the virus when she has been following such a degree of self-isolation.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 4,520,682; # of deaths worldwide: 303,065; # of cases U.S.: 1,456,268; # of deaths U.S.: 86,895.  Brazil’s case count, having surpassed that of France, is now about to forge ahead of Italy’s.  Spain and Italy continue to get numerous new cases, but the number of cases that are still active has gone steadily downward in both countries. 

Morning statistics – Foxes becoming emboldened – Proposed stimulus package – Protestors in Michigan – Catoctin Creek – A false alarm – Driving under easy conditions – The coronavirus is here to stay – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 4,363,949; # of deaths worldwide: 293,549; # of cases U.S.: 1,408,745; # of deaths U.S.: 83,449.  The U.S. now accounts for nearly half of the active cases worldwide.  Our incidence rate is over 0.42%.  Brazil’s case count is only 11 less than that of France; it will overtake the latter country by this evening.  The gap between Russia’s case count and Spain’s is closing; soon it will be second only to the U.S. in its number of cases.  It continues to get over 10,000 new ones every day.  Moreover, it has admitted that many deaths in April should have been attributed to COVID-19 that were listed as due to other causes (heart attack, organ failure, and other conditions that are aggravated by the onset of the virus). 

Foxes are stealing shoes from local residents.  I have already mentioned that the wildlife has been bolder over the past several weeks, and foxes particularly so.  Formerly seeing a fox during local walks, and especially seeing one who crossed my path, was the rarest of occurrences.  In the past six weeks I have seen no fewer than three of them.  I suppose that the lack of traffic on the roads has encouraged them to be more active.  The Historic Blenheim area possesses about 12 acres, 4 of them wooded, and the foxes have several holes there concealed by the undergrowth.  Many residents in that area have acquired the habit of leaving their shoes outside as a precaution against bringing the virus into their homes, where the foxes find them and drag them to their holes for use as toys for their kits.  At least that is the accepted explanation, but one observer has come up with a different theory, which is not without a certain ingenuity:  “Foxes steal shoes because most shoe stores and malls discriminate against foxes.”

Another stimulus bill is being proposed.  The stimulus would provide funding for state and local governments, hazard pay for essential workers, funding for coronavirus testing, rent and mortgage assistance, an extension of the $600 weekly unemployment expansion, additional funding for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, additional funding for small businesses, emergency relief for the U.S. Postal Service, and provisions for election safety and facilitating voting by mail.  And where is the money to come from?  Is the Government simply going to print more and thereby devalue the currency?  Or simply sink into more debt?  It is true that the economies of other countries have been similarly damaged, so perhaps ours will maintain the same status relative to theirs.

The protestors in Lansing have been transmitting the virus to the rural areas of Michigan, where the majority of them live.  Thus they have been industriously at work to defeat their own ends.  Governor Whitmore has been asking the administration to discourage the activists, but in vain.  She is a Democrat; and for the current administration, party politics is more important than national safety.

Today I hiked with RS through various parts of Loudoun County.  We kept at a distance from one another during the hike and we wore face masks.  We went along a rather meandering route; indeed, the greater part of it was bushwhacking.  We managed to find our way to the bank of Catoctin Creek, which we had glimpsed from above on one of our previous hikes but were unable to discern whether or not any defined trails went along the course of the stream.  There was a trail along certain parts; in other areas we had to push our way through the forest and the undergrowth, but it appears that a trail route going alongside the stream can be devised.  The stream itself is broad and flows gently, with the potential of providing swimming holes for the summer months.  The weather has become favorable at last:  warm but not hot, without rain and with little humidity.  It will become chilly tonight, but after that we should be seeing weather more typical of the season.

RS had not been well for several days, although he has recovered by now.  His symptoms were a temporary attack of conjunctivitis and continual accumulations of sputum.  He wondered whether his ailment could have been a form of the virus.  I did not think it likely, for he had no fever, no dry cough, and no breathing issues.  Nonetheless, he voluntarily placed himself under quarantine for two weeks.  One of the effects of the pandemic is that the slightest symptom of illness triggers alarm that under ordinary circumstances one would brush off as being of little account. 

Once the restrictions are totally lifted I shall miss the ease of driving on the roads.  After the hike was over and I returned, I went by way of Rte. 50, which I ordinarily would not have done because it is clogged with stop lights and generally has a high volume of traffic in the afternoon.  I used that route because I wanted to stop at a winery and replenish my supply of wine.  It was surprisingly easy.  Even though the lights are not especially well-timed, there was little backup at any of the stops.  Going along Rte. 50 at that time of day, stopping at the store, and going on Rte. 50 again back to Fairfax would have taken much longer and would have been a significantly more frustrating drive under normal conditions, which makes me less eager for the lifting of the stay-at-home restrictions than one might expect.

Dr. Fauci has said that the virus will never be eradicated.  It is too readily transmissible and too widespread.  When travel restrictions are allowed to lapse, hundreds of thousands of visitors will be entering the U.S., each one of them a potential carrier.  (The same strictures apply, of course, to other countries receiving American visitors.)  It will be something we’ll always have with us, like flu or the common cold, and the only way we’ll be able to contain it is to develop an effective vaccine.

California appears to have reached a plateau.  There is a continued downward trend in the numbers of new cases and new deaths.  Beaches are being re-opened.  Visitors can pursue activities such as swimming, jogging, surfing, and walking, but volleyball and other group sports are banned.  Visitors must wear masks when they are out of the water.  Retail businesses whose employees cannot easily tele-commute are also re-opening. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 4,425,451; # of deaths worldwide: 297,739; # of cases U.S.: 1,430,243; # of deaths U.S.: 85,192.  Brazil’s case count is now higher than that of France.  Russia’s case count is less than Spain’s but it is rapidly catching up.  The figures from the African nations are reassuringly low, at any rate for the present.  Some island nations are at this point without any active cases, as well as the following mainland ones:  Belize, Suriname, and Western Sahara. 

Hiking in the Massanutten Range – Traffic conditions still light – India allowing trains to run again – President Bolsonaro claims jobs more important than containing the virus – Mexico – Nick Cordero – Evening statistics

I hiked under the auspices of the Vigorous Hikers; I cannot say I hiked “with” them, since I started earlier than most of them and encountered them only in passing.  It was cool today – quite chilly for most of the morning, in fact.  Even in the lower elevations the temperature never went above 60 degrees, and it was fairly cloudy until well into the afternoon.  The hike was in the Massanutten range, something over 16 miles, with 3000 feet of elevation.  It took me 5 hours and 40 minutes.  Most of the time I was moving pretty well, but the hike involved going over both Strickler Knob and Duncan Knob, and these are rock scrambles – it will not do to hurry through them.  In stepping down from Duncan Knob one must take care not to lose sight of the trail below; the last 350 feet one simply climbs over boulders and it is easy to mistake one’s bearings in descending.  In addition, the views are worth lingering upon – those from Duncan Knob in particular.  It is a rock outcropping with a 270-degree view on top, looking down into the valley of the south fork of the Shenandoah River and to the Blue Ridge beyond. 

The drive back was easy and there was no backup of traffic in the other direction, as there generally is under normal conditions.  It is evident that many people are still telecommuting and that many others have nowhere to commute to because they are still out of work.  Conditions will be closer to normal next week, although the most populous counties will probably delay the release of the lockdown restrictions.

Trains are running in India, after several weeks of their being forced to halt due to the country’s lockdown restrictions.  Train travel is one of the mainstays of India, and it must have been a great hardship to do without it.  It is easy to see why they want it resumed as quickly as possible; one hopes that using the trains will be feasible and will not trigger another spike of the virus.  India has had more than 70,000 cases – not a huge number for a country whose population is 1.3 billion, although not insignificant either. Its mortality rate is slightly over 3%.  On the whole, the Indians seem to have managed well so far.  The difficulties that the country is experiencing do not appear at this point on a par with many others – it cannot be considered a “hotspot.”  The greatest damage has been to their economy, but most of the countries in Asia and Europe have suffered the same way.

Brazil is easing restrictions as cases continue to multiply. President Bolsonaro has declared hair salons and gyms to be among the essential services that may remain open.  Construction companies and auto companies are essentially doing business as usual.  Bolsonaro’s attitude is that without a viable economy there will be no funding for anything, including hospitals.  It may be so, but if a sufficient percentage of workers become incapacitated, the jobs that drive the economy won’t last very long.  Many Brazilian cities, however, have locked down – the local authorities, apparently, not sharing his nonchalant attitude.  The country now has more cases than Germany, moving it to seventh on the list of countries with the greatest number of cases.  It will soon overtake France as well.  Its number of critical cases is second only to that of the U.S., but its severity rate is four times greater than ours. 

Mexico’s problems have not been quite as severe as Brazil’s, but the nation has already lost 111 medical personnel to the virus.  Already the hospitals in Mexico City are reaching their maximum capacity.  It is possible that the death toll might as high as three times the amount officially reported. And Mexico City isn’t seeing the silver lining that so many other cities have enjoyed; it is still filled with smog.  Even though traffic has diminished, festering garbage dumps, dirty diesel-fueled generators, and frequent forest fires keep filling the air with pollutants.

Poor Nick Cordero has been undergoing sheer misery ever since he contracted the virus.  To date Cordero’s heart has stopped, he required resuscitation on occasion, and he has endured two mini-strokes, a leg amputation, an MRI to investigate possible brain damage, several bronchial sweeps, a sepsis infection causing septic shock, a fungus in his lungs, holes in his lungs, a tracheostomy, blood clots and a temporary pacemaker to assist his heart.  He has recently emerged from a coma but is very weak, unable to speak and just barely able to open his eyes. There are some people who have deliberately attempted to catch the virus in order to obtain immunity; if they had a closer look at what Cordero has suffered as the result of his illness, they might wish to reconsider.

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 4,339,798; # of deaths worldwide: 292,807; # of cases U.S.: 1,408,636; # of deaths U.S.: 83,425.  China now claims to have only 104 active cases, of which 10 are critical. 

Morning statistics – A hiking incident – Unseasonable weather continues – Tele-marketing spam calls – NFL football season in jeopardy – Another outburst of Trump at journalists – Re-opening of beaches – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 4,210,318; # of deaths worldwide: 284,448; # of cases U.S.: 1,368,036; # of deaths U.S.: 80,789.  As predicted, Russia is now third on the list of number of cases, trailing behind only the U.S. and Spain.  At this rate it will overtake Spain as well in a couple of days.  Spain has been hit very hard.  Its daily death toll is decreasing but it still lost over a hundred people in the last 24 hours.  Its incidence rate is over 0.57%.  Brazil is still eighth on the list of total number of cases, but it is overtaking Germany and France.  The presidents of both Paraguay and Venezuela have denounced Bolsonaro’s attitude as irresponsible.  The incidence rate is also increasing swiftly in Peru, Mexico, and Ecuador.  On the other hand, Belize and Suriname have no active cases.

Yosemite National Park is closed, but a hiker attempted to view Angel Falls a few miles outside of the park’s south entrance.  In attempting to cross the falls he got caught in a whirlpool and would have drowned, had not an off-duty police officer who was also hiking in the area managed to throw a rope to him and then pull him out.  Water from the snow melting during the spring thaws can be treacherous and it is not advisable to cross rapid water in that season.  And it’s easy to under-estimate the force of the flow; some streams and lakes appear fairly placid on the surface but have strong currents underneath.  Still, I saw photos of the stream and I doubt very much whether I would have attempted it. The torrent was flowing swiftly even along the surface and the temperature of the water could not have been more than 50 degrees.

Today’s weather was not disagreeable:  it was in the high 50s, somewhat blustery but not overly so, and cloudy but with a bit of sunshine now and then.  Why, then, did it feel so unsatisfactory?  We continue to have cooler temperatures than usual; today was not at all a bad sort of day for March but by mid-May one expects warmer weather.  One must beware, however, of directing wishes to Heaven in that respect; the forecast is for quite torrid temperatures by the weekend.

The devil can find work for busy hands as well as idle ones, so he sent a commission to the telemarketers, which they undertook immediately.  Today I’ve been getting calls purporting to be from Verizon stating that my account has been suspended.  I knew very well that Verizon would not do so without contacting me first and that it would certainly not convey such a message by means of a recorded voicemail, so I simply blocked the caller.  But it was like eliminating Hydra’s heads; when one was cut off, another took its place.  I am on the Do Not Call list, but it makes no difference.  The only way to eliminate these scams is to ban telemarketing altogether, and this step the Government and the phone companies consistently refuse to take.

Dr. Fauci has strongly urged against resuming football games at this point, since the players are almost certain to infect one another if they meet on the playing field.  The NFL football season doesn’t begin until the fall.  When asked whether we will have NFL football this year, Fauci said “The virus will make the decision for us.”

In today’s press conference about the virus, Trump displayed yet another one of his tantrums, walking out abruptly after a heated exchange with some of the journalists.  Weijia Jiang of CBS asked Trump, who frequently compares the United States’s testing ability and mortality rate with those of other countries, why the statistics surrounding the virus are a “global competition” to him.  “Well, they’re losing their lives everywhere in the world, and maybe that’s a question you should ask China,” Trump responded. “Don’t ask me. Ask China that question, OK? When you ask them that question, you may get a very unusual answer.”  “Why are you saying that to me specifically?” asked Jiang, who was born in China and raised in West Virginia. “I’m not saying it specifically to anybody. I’m saying it to anybody that would ask a nasty question like that,” Trump replied before moving on to another reporter.  And there is no question that if there is one subject on which Trump is an expert, it is nastiness.

Beaches are re-opening all over the country, from Ocean City, MD to Myrtle Beach, SC and even at Lake Tahoe.  New Jersey, the hardest-hit state after New York, has not re-opened beaches yet, but Atlantic City is planning to have hotels and dining available to visitors by June 1^st. 

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 4,253,802; # of deaths worldwide: 287,250; # of cases U.S.: 1,385,834; # of deaths U.S.: 81,795.  The U.K. total case count has shot up again, so that it is now third and Russia is now fourth in the list of nations with the highest counts.  Spain’s case count is significantly higher than either but it does appear to be stabilizing, which is not the case for the other two.  Brazil’s case count is now only slightly less than Germany’s. 

Morning statistics – Household chores – A virtual memorial service – An example of the eighth and highest degree of charity – Phèdre in a modern dress – Odd behavior patterns in Michigan – Encouraging news from New York – Claudia Meza – The disproportionate role professional sports play in the U.S. – President Trump’s priorities – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 7:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 4,121,778; # of deaths worldwide: 280,868; # of cases U.S.: 1,347,318; # of deaths U.S.: 80,040.  The virus now appears to be advancing in Eastern Europe and Latin America.  Russia is getting more than 10,000 new cases every day.  The death toll in Brazil is several hundred per day.  The figures from African nations, however, are still low.  Many of these have taken extensive preventative steps, so there is hope that they may be able to contain the virus and emerge relatively unscathed.

Today has warmed up at last.  I had to go shopping for the week in the morning, and after my return I mowed the lawn.  The outside temperature warmed up gradually and by the time I had completed the mowing I no longer needed a jacket and ski-cap.  And I can open windows in the house again.  I did not venture far from home, however; the virtual memorial service for FP was scheduled for 3:00 this afternoon and I did not want to miss it.

The service featured several reminiscences of FP, and one of speakers had a wonderful story.  He was out of work at one point; and in a desperate attempt to find employment he walked into one of the Hard Times Café restaurants, of which FP happened to be the owner.  FP not only hired him on the spot, but voluntarily loaned him enough to cover his debts, allowing him to pay it back by taking a slight amount out of his paycheck until it was all paid off.  This is an example of what Maimonides calls the highest degree of charity, that of helping a man to help himself.  The man in question is now a successful businessman and a member of the legislature in Iowa.  There were many similarly heartfelt tributes to FP.  I did not know him well; I knew him only as the husband of CC, whom I met through the Vigorous Hikers.  I would go to their annual Christmas parties, but he already was in frail health when I first met him, and so that was the extent of my contact with him.  I am sorry now that I did not know him earlier.  In his professional life, he appears to have been one of those business owners who treat their employees as a kind of extended family.  That type of employer is becoming increasingly rarer, and the after-effects of the virus on the economy will make such employers rarer still.  I do not see how small businesses can adapt once the virus has passed through and completed its devastation – the increased amount of regulations will make it impossible for all but the largest businesses to survive.

French classical theatre may be remote to most Russians or Americans, but quite a number of them have recently been viewing a modern rendition of Racine’s Phèdre.  Marina Balmasheva is currently in the process of getting a divorce from her husband Alexey Shavyrin, after the latter awoke to the sounds of Marina having sex with her lover.  The lover in this case happened to Alexey’s son, Vladimir, from a previous marriage.  Marina entered the household when Vladimir was 7 years old and was his stepmother for 13 years.  This story, however, is a 21^st-century version of the venerable tragedy.  Alexey Shavyrin did not, like Thésée (or Theseus), curse his son and make an invocation to the gods to ensure the latter’s destruction; he contented himself with publicly venting his grievances on a national talk show.  Young Vladimir, far from repulsing his stepmother’s advances, cheerfully acquiesced with them; and Balmasheva, instead concealing her passion in secret shame and confiding to no one except her old nurse, broadcasted the entire story on her webpage, which has over 400,000 followers.  Not content with narrative only, she included before-and-after photographs of herself and her stepson, the first showing her standing alongside a confiding child and the second showing her locked in a passionate embrace with a youth of 20.  Considering that the original story ended with the deaths of Phèdre and Hippolyte, along with the blighting of the remainder of Theseus’ life, I suppose that this outcome is preferable; but it does seem a bit messy nonetheless.

The notoriously contaminated water of Flint, Michigan, appears to have affected the inhabitants of the entire state.  A barber in Owosso has opened his shop in defiance of the state’s lockdown orders.  The Michigan Attorney General has sent orders for him to close, which he simply has ignored.  Militia volunteers have lined up around the shop to prevent the police from shutting it down or arresting him, and in the meantime the shop has a line of steady customers with as many as 15 waiting on the street due to the crowd inside.  None of them are wearing masks or practicing social distancing.  In the meantime, armed protestors are still besieging Lansing, several bearing swastikas and Confederate flags.  One can only wonder at their staggering ignorance of elementary biology and, it may be added, of geography as well.  Has anyone clued them in that Michigan is considerably north of the Mason-Dixon line?

Good news from New York at last:  the hospitalization rate has fallen to what it was seven weeks earlier, when the stay-at-home order was first issued.  This order is scheduled to expire next week, although Governor Cuomo has reserved the option to extend it as needed. 

Another sad story:  Claudia Meza, aged 51, fell ill of the virus and spent 49 days in a hospital, 28 of these on a ventilator.  She finally pulled through, was discharged, and returned to her relatives – only to discover that her sister and her brother-in-law had also contracted the virus and had died within a week of each other. 

Virginia begins Phase 1 of the re-opening next week – on the 15^th, to be precise.  Barber shops, hair salons, and other non-essential businesses will be open then, but indoor dining for restaurants will still be on hold.  Outdoor dining will be allowed, but only at 50% capacity.  Churches and other houses of worship will be allowed to resume services, but the 50%-capacity rule applies to these as well.  Fairfax, Loudoun, and Prince William counties, the most populous of the state, have a slighter higher rate of infection than the remainder of Virginia, so the governor is willing to allow local authorities to impose stricter guidelines at any time.  We may see the stay-at-home orders extended in this area until May 29^th, especially as the number of cases continues to rise.

From a Washington Post article by Norman Chad:  “The pandemic has reminded us: We don’t need more sports in our lives — we need less.”  Some people have claimed that this statement was merely satire designed to provoke the maximum amount of reaction.  But if it should happen that Chad doesn’t stick to his guns, I’m not afraid to say it:  spectator sports play too much of a role in the average American’s life.  The benefits of playing organized games in one’s backyard or in a local park are indisputable, but when they are transformed into a mega-business their influence becomes notably less benign.  Among other things, the time devoted to watching them on television prevents many Americans from getting much exercise on their own.  As one who does not care especially for games, I can, at the age of 65, go for 20 miles without stopping over a mountainous route with an elevation gain of 5000 feet and more in the course of well under a day.  How many professed sports-lovers can claim the same?

Speaking of the beneficent influence of organized sports on our nation, President Trump has just tweeted a commercial for the re-opening of the golf course under his ownership.  We may be undergoing a pandemic that has claimed over 80,000 lives in this nation alone, but business is business after all.  What a comfort to learn how our President is placing his priorities!

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 4,178,154; # of deaths worldwide: 283,734; # of cases U.S.: 1,367,638; # of deaths U.S.: 80,787.  The death toll in the U.K. is now greater than Italy’s, and the mortality rate is not far behind.  Russia’s incidence count is now well over 200,000.  The incidence rate is Belarus is also steadily increasing.  At this rate it will soon be among the ten nations with the highest incidence rates.  On the other hand, Spain has had the lowest death toll today since mid-March.  Increases are also smaller in France and Canada.  Turkey is allowing its senior citizens to go outside for the first time in nearly two months.  Iran, which has been easing its lockdown restrictions, has re-instituted them in one of its southwest counties because its number of new cases went up by 60%.  China claims to have only 141 active cases, of which 9 are severe.  But there is a cluster of new cases in Wuhan.  Also, China does not include asymptomatic individuals in its assessment of active cases. 

Morning statistics – Brazil begins to unravel – Hiking in Leesylvania – Checking in with my aunt – Dana White’s reassurances – Shrinkage of the middle class – Difference of V-Day celebrations between Russia and Belarus – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 7:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 4,032,763; # of deaths worldwide: 276,677; # of cases U.S.: 1,322,164; # of deaths U.S.: 78,616.  The incidence rate in both Russia and Brazil continues to accelerate.  The total number of deaths is Russia is now barely lagging behind that of the U.K. and Italy.  At this rate it will overtake both nations in two or three days.  The Faeroe Islands, the Falkland Islands, and Papua New Guinea have joined that exclusive group of territories now free of the virus (everyone who has contracted it has since recovered). Papua New Guinea has a population of about 9,000,000, which makes it the first entity that is not a microstate that has rid itself of the virus.  That is good news, because the medical care system in that nation is so rudimentary that the virus had the potential of doing a great deal of damage.  Belize and Suriname have no active cases at the moment, but because they share borders with countries with active cases they are not considered free of the virus yet.  The number of active cases in New Zealand is down to 103 and only two of these are considered severe.  Taiwan has 73 active cases, none of them severe.  Australia has 697 active cases, 19 of which are severe.  Vietnam has 47 cases, 8 of which are severe; up to this point it has had no deaths from the virus – and this result, it bears repeating, in a country that borders China.  China claims to have only 208 active cases, 15 of them severe. 

Brazil has the highest rate of transmission of any major country:  anyone there who has contracted the virus infects three others on the average.  In contrast, the average reproduction rate in Germany is 0.8.  The virus is now ravaging Sao Paolo.  Mass burial sites are being carved out on the edge of the city’s residential neighborhoods.  The official count of virus infections places Brazil eighth on the list of total number of cases; if the estimates of under-reporting are correct, it is in reality second only to the U.S. or possibly even claiming the sorry distinction of first place. 

I went along the Potomac Heritage Trail just outside of Leesylvania State Park today.  This hike is one whose route I devised during my last year as Director of Trails for the Wanderbirds.  The club members enjoyed it very much, even though in one respect it did not turn out as I had hoped.  At that time the Neabsco Creek Boardwalk was scheduled to be completed and available by the date for which I had placed the hike into the club schedule.  The ribbon-cutting ceremony for the Boardwalk, however, had to be postponed.  Even after that time, there was an area for about 500-600 feet at the south end of the Boardwalk where the trail was not complete.  The only way to get from where the trail petered out to the end of the Boardwalk was to bushwhack – and that area is not good for bushwhacking, being covered with brambles and boggy to the extent that the suction from the mud is capable of pulling boots off of one’s feet.  The section that continued towards Leesylvania went through a wetlands area and would get very muddy and slippery after even a mild rainfall.  I knew that work had been done on the trail since I last visited it, and I wanted to see if any progress had been made.  It turns out that the trail is now in excellent condition.  An elevated walk has been placed over the bog and there are many wooden planks to aid hikers getting through the muddier portions of the wetlands.  It is now possible to hike continuously from Rippon Landing (the north end of the Boardwalk) to Leesylvania.  The Boardwalk has been closed on account of the lockdown restrictions but once it is re-opened it will be possible to do the hike route that I had originally intended. 

Leesylvania itself is now open, as is the case with most of the Virginia state parks, and so I went along the route I had done with the club in the past.  It is a loop of about nine miles, but the various excursions I made at the two endpoints of the Boardwalk brought the total distance that I covered today closer to twelve.  The park itself is on a small peninsula defined by two streams that drain into the Potomac River:  Neabsco Creek at the north edge and Powell Creek at the south.  The Potomac in this area is considerably broader than it is closer to Washington, continually widening as it approaches the Chesapeake Bay.  Not only does it provide many lovely vistas of both streams and of the Potomac itself, but it is of considerable historical interest.  The Lee and the Fairfax families, both of whom played a large role in shaping the history of Virginia, had estates on the site that the park now occupies.  The various facilities were closed but people were allowed to visit as long as they confined themselves to fishing in the river or walking on the trails.  The restrooms were closed, of course; but to my surprise the porta-potties were available to all comers.  But I did not venture into any of those; that was too much of a risk for my liking. 

It was cold this morning, a little over 40 degrees (5 degrees Celcius) and I was grizzling a bit about the unseasonable weather for this time of year.  But about half-an-hour into the hike the temperature rose by a few degrees, with sunlight pouring down from a nearly cloudless sky, and I actually felt to the need to take off a layer of clothing.  Later still it became cloudier and windy; by the time I returned home it had become chilly again.  It is supposed to be warmer tomorrow and by Thursday or so we should be having temperatures closer to the average. 

I called my aunt when I returned.  She is keeping her spirits up, although the enforced solitude must be more difficult for her than it is for me.  We sent some photographs to each other, with me sending her photos from recent hikes and she sending me photos of relatives and also of New York City in its current state.  The streets are strangely empty, so different from the city I remember from numerous visits.

Americans have been suffering from a lack of professional sports activities since, unlike the inhabitants of Belarus, people here are not yet prepared to crowd themselves into stadiums.  However, the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) has organized a fight between Tony Ferguson and Justin Gaethje, who will battle for the interim lightweight championship on Saturday.  It will be streamed on ESPN.  In the words of UFC president Dana White, “Ferguson vs. Gaethje will be one of the most violent fights you’ll ever see, I can guarantee that.”  I’ve no doubt that such an assurance must be a gratification to sports fans all over the country and that people will tune in by the thousands to witness so pleasing an event.

Our middle class is shrinking as a result of the impact of the virus on the economy.  Many Americans live from paycheck to paycheck, and they are ill-prepared to meet a period of prolonged unemployment.  Last year a Federal Reserve report warned that nearly 40% of American workers could not come up with as little as $400 for an emergency.  Not all of the people who were laid off during the lockdown will necessarily be able to find work again once the lockdown restrictions are completely eliminated, and in any case that will be a matter of several weeks, even months.  In the meantime that monthly payment for rent or mortgage, which I discoursed upon earlier, will not go away.  Many homes have already been placed for sale on the market.  We are relatively fortunate in the DC Metro area, where so many jobs are Government-related and thus have a higher proportion that is considered essential. 

Russia celebrated V-Day today, but the celebrations were muted.   Hardly anyone was in the streets of St. Petersburg or Moscow.  The only military display was a flyover of central Moscow by 75 warplanes and helicopters.  Just across the border, the Belarussians turned out in tens of thousands in Minsk to watch a parade of 3,000 soldiers.  Few of the spectators were wearing masks, and none were practicing social distancing. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 4,098,092; # of deaths worldwide: 280,223; # of cases U.S.: 1,347,125; # of deaths U.S.: 80,036. 

Morning statistics – Two right-wing conspiracy theorists and slanderers (I take full responsibility for this tautology) – Marilee Shapiro Asher – More rain and chill – The schedule for lifting restrictions in Virginia – Mexico – Memorial Day celebrations may create issues – Three countries with no reports of the virus – Evening statistics – The doubtful sanity of President Bolsonaro

Today’s statistics as of 7:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 3,934,813; # of deaths worldwide: 271,095; # of cases U.S.: 1,292,879; # of deaths U.S.: 76,942.  At the rate Russia is going, it will soon overtake the U.K. and Italy in the absolute number of case counts.  Its mortality rate is low (less than 1%) but it will go up as the more recent cases come to a resolution.  Brazil’s case count is also increasing rapidly.  It is now eighth on the list of nations on an absolute scale of case counts.  Sweden’s mortality rate is now 12.5%.  The U.K. is now has the highest number of deaths of all the European countries, more than 30,000.  Its mortality rate is nearly 15%.  On the other hand, Spain and Italy both appear to have flattered the curve; the number of new cases and of deaths per day has been going steadily downwards.  China’s number of active cases is now down (reportedly) to 260. 

On April 21^st Jacob Wohl and Jack Burkman, notorious far-right conspiracy theorists, reported that a woman accused Dr. Fauci of sexual harassment.  Shortly afterwards the woman, calling herself Diana Rodriguez, confirmed this account.  Ten days later she told a journalist that her real name is Diana Andrade and that she made these allegations only because she was paid to do so by Wohl and Burkman.  The attempt to slander Fauci with false accusations was clumsy enough, but this is not the first time that Wohl and Burkman have made such attempts:  Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg, Robert Mueller, Kamala Harris, and Ilhan Omar have all endured similar treatment.  The two men are nothing but blackmailers, and why they haven’t been arraigned is a mystery. 

In all fairness I doubt whether President Trump is personally involved with the two.  His attitude towards them is probably like that of Pompey in Antony and Cleopatra when Menas proposes to assassinate Antony, Lepidus, and Octavian while they are too drunk to make any resistance:

        . . . Ah, this thou should have done
        And not have spoke on’t!  In me 'tis villainy,
        In thee’t had been good service.

In all probability Trump has not been in contact with Wohl and Burkman, but he certainly has made no attempt to repudiate them.  It is only too likely that he appreciates their “good service.”

Marilee Shapiro Asher, a painter and sculptor whose works have been displayed in the Smithsonian, contracted the virus in March but recovered without having to resort to a ventilator.  This is the second pandemic she survived; the first one was the Spanish flu of 1918, when she was 6 years old.  She is now 107.  At one point the doctor in attendance said that she had no more than 12 hours to live, to which her daughter responded, “Well, he doesn’t know my mother, does he?” 

Yet another rainy day!  I managed to get out and take a loop of about 7 miles before it started.  The rain will pass later on, but tomorrow will be quite cold, less than 50 degrees (10 degrees Celsius).  We may even get a touch of snow.  Afterwards a warming trend will begin, but we will not be seeing seasonable temperatures until late next week.

Even as Virginia plans to lift restrictions, the number of cases in Fairfax County is increasing exponentially.  The greater part of these occurs in the health care industry, particularly those who work in nursing homes.  Even if matters are improving in other parts of the state, we are by no means over this hurdle yet.  As it is, non-essential businesses will still not be able to open until May 15^th.  (Originally they were scheduled to re-open today.)  At that point one may get haircuts but will require appointments to do so.  Dining out will be possible again, but fewer tables will be available on account of spacing requirements.  People may go to gyms but may have to wait longer to get in, since there will be limits on how many may use one simultaneously.  State parks will be re-opened, but only for use during the daytime.  The prognostics for the state seem favorable on the whole.  Hospitalizations are no longer overwhelming the health care system and projections are considerably less than they were earlier.  Much of the increase in the incidence rate is due to the increased availability of testing.  The mortality rate is reassuringly low. 

Tijuana, Mexico, has more than twice the incidence rate of the national average, probably on account of its proximity to the United States.  Its mortality rate is 21%, far greater than Mexico’s national average.  It is a source of concern that the virus may sweep from there into the interior, which Mexico’s medical system is ill-equipped to handle.  Mexico’s testing is very limited compared to that of other countries, so the actual number of cases may be far greater than what is actually reported.  Mexico City is particularly vulnerable; it is home to twenty million people, who live in extremely close proximity to one another.  In addition, many Mexicans have underlying factors such as obesity and diabetes. 

Memorial Day is looming ahead.  By that time many if not all states will have lifted the greater part of their lockdown restrictions.  Memorial Day traditionally involves large, indeed enormous, gatherings and also signifies the opening of the beach season in many localities.  It is not realistic to suppose that millions of people will exercise self-restraint.  It is almost certain that the festivities usually observed on this day will greatly impede the effort to stop the virus from spreading and may even initiate a new wave of infections.

Outside of some isolated microstates in Micronesia and Oceania, three countries claim to have been untouched by the virus:  North Korea, Turkmenistan, and Lesotho.  The dubiety of North Korea’s claim, especially in light of its 880-mile border with China, has already been mentioned.  Indeed, fear of contracting the virus may account for the relative infrequency of Kim Jong-un’s public appearances this year.  Turkmenistan is somewhat less totalitarian than North Korea, but its former ruler was a personality cult type of dictator who imposed his extremely eccentric tastes upon the entire nation – for example, he banned both opera and circuses because they were “insufficiently Turkmen.”  Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow, the current president, has eliminated the most peculiar of the prohibitions and has opened up the country to some extent, but torture and suppression are still daily occurrences there.  So the government is no more likely to admit to coronavirus cases than North Korea; in addition, it doesn’t have access to reliable testing.  The situation of Lesotho is rather different.  Its government is fairly chaotic – its Prime Minister, Thomas Thabane, is currently laboring under a change of the murder of his first wife and has just announced that he will be stepping down from office this coming July – but it is also isolated, being landlocked, extremely mountainous, and surrounded entirely by a single country.  It does have some tourism, but not much; and of course the recent travel restrictions have reduced any influx of foreign visitors it might normally receive.  Like many African nations, it has had experience in managing outbreaks of contagious disease, and when the virus became a threat it locked down its border early.  It may well be, therefore, that the number of cases there at the moment is very small.  But the probabilities are that there are a scattered few in the country, and the current instability of the government will prove to be a major distraction from any attempts at controlling the virus if it breaks out within their border.

Today’s statistics as of 7:30 PM — # of cases worldwide: 4,009,472; # of deaths worldwide: 275,914; # of cases U.S.: 1,320,683; # of deaths U.S.: 78,557.  The incidence rate in the U.S. is now greater than that of Italy, once considered the nation in the most dire straits.  The mortality rate, it is true, is considerably lower.  Italy’s lockdown has been more severe than ours, but now the Italians are allowed to go outside for exercise.  Church services will resume on May 18^th, although strict social distancing will be observed.  All worshippers will be required to wear face masks.  Spain’s lockdown has also been severe, with people being greatly limited as to the amount of time that they can spend out of doors; and all streets are patrolled to enforce this restriction.  Both countries have reason to be wary; they have undergone huge losses – nearly 27,000 in Italy, over 30,000 in Spain.  They also have many active cases, but the number of severe cases is steadily declining.  President Bolsonaro of Brazil continues to take the matter with characteristic insouciance.  “Brazilians should be studied, we don’t catch anything. You see people jumping in sewage, diving in it and nothing happens to them.”  And Donald Trump himself might be nonplussed by this touching display of sympathy for the victims in his country who have already been claimed by the virus:  “I’m sorry for the situation we are currently living with due to the virus. We express our solidarity to those who have lost loved ones, many of whom were elderly. But that’s life, it could be me tomorrow.”  In fact, I must say this on behalf of Bolsonaro:  his responses to the crisis are so bizarre that he makes President Trump seem almost normal in comparison.

Morning statistics – President Bolsonaro – Russia – Most likely places to catch COVID-19 – Ambiguous evidence about advantages and disadvantages of smoking – Hiking on the W&OD Trail – Roses at Bon Air – Russia again and Moscow in particular – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 7:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 3,841,666; # of deaths worldwide: 265,589; # of cases U.S.: 1,263,243; # of deaths U.S.: 74,809.

President Bolsonaro of Brazil, when questioned about the mortality rate of the virus in that country:  “Sorry, but what do you want me to do?  My name is Messiah, but I can’t work miracles.”  He makes President Trump seem a model of efficiency and compassion in comparison.  Brazil is now getting several thousand new cases a day.  It is ninth on the list of case numbers by nation on an absolute scale.  Its daily death toll may go up to 800 by May 11^th.  Paraguay has dug a trench along the border with Brazil to prevent people from going across the border undetected.  It has taken the opposite tack from Brazil, initiating a lockdown early and prohibiting travel to and from any other country. 

As predicted, Russia’s case count has also moved it up on the list, now surpassing that of France and Germany.  Only the U.S., Spain, Italy, and the U.K. have a higher number of case counts now.  The Russians are taking the matter somewhat more seriously than the Brazilians.  Borders are closed, the elderly and other groups at risk are in quarantine, Muscovites are obliged to wear gloves and masks when traveling in public, and lockdown restrictions are easing more gradually than in Western Europe.  Its measures may be having some effect, since the death toll is relatively low. 

According to one article the following are the most likely places to catch the virus:  elevators, grocery stores (especially at the checkout counter), airplane travel, subways and buses, public restrooms, hospitals, and being too close with a family member who has already contracted COVID-19.  Of these, the only one that affects me personally is the item about grocery stores.  I’ve been trying to limit my visits to them and I always wear a mask when I enter one, but I end up going to one at least once every five or six days. 

There is a recent article that claims that smokers are less likely to be infected by the virus than non-smokers.  On the page for that article there is a link to another article that says that smokers are 14 times more likely to develop severe respiratory disease from the virus.  So what are we to do?  Should we take up smoking or avoid it at all costs?  As Alexander Pope said, who shall decide when doctors disagree?

Today I walked along the W&OD Trail.  One cannot really call it a hike.  It is flat and paved, and shared by bicyclists and pedestrians.  In some areas there is a parallel path of crushed stone that is meant for pedestrians only, but it is not continuous and in any case bicyclists frequently disregard the restrictions.  I started at Vienna and went as far as Bon Air Park, about seven miles each way.  At Bon Air I went about the Rose Garden.  The Garden itself is closed, but one can view the roses from the perimeter.  It is a little early for full bloom, especially on account of the cool and wet weather we have been having.  It has been very wet – rain in 12 days out of the last 14 – and the temperatures have been more typical of spring in Chicago than here.  We will be continuing to have cool temperatures until a week from now.  But the roses were beginning to appear, especially on a couple of trellises in the garden, and their scent was faint but readily discernable. 

Even at this stage people still do not fall back into single file when approaching someone coming from the opposite direction.  And the women in this respect are even more discourteous than the men.

More news from Russia:  there are now three Cabinet members who are afflicted – the Prime Minister, the construction minister, and the Minister of Culture.  Moscow’s lockdown (much more restrictive than that of any of the states here) is extended to May 31^st.  Officially Moscow has 92,676 cases but the actual number may be as high as 300,000.  The tests that the city has been using are unreliable at detecting the virus in early stages, resulting in thousands of false negative results. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:30 PM — # of cases worldwide: 3,913,559; # of deaths worldwide: 270,422; # of cases U.S.: 1,292,594; # of deaths U.S.: 76,926.  The incidence rate in the U.S. is now nearly 0.4% of the population. The number of new cases is said to be declining in Spain and Italy; but still the increase today was over 3,000 in Spain and nearly 1,500 in Italy. 

Morning statistics – More bad news from Europe – The status of Turkey – The Democratic primary election in New York – Neil Ferguson – The Defenestrations of Russia – Bank services – Mid-spring – Donald Trump’s sleeping difficulties – The schedule of easing of restrictions in Texas – Cynthia Covert and the alligator – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 3,751,203; # of deaths worldwide: 259,268; # of cases U.S.: 1,238,083; # of deaths U.S.: 72,285. China claims to have brought its number of active cases down to less than 350.  In South Korea the number of active cases is still over 1,200 but only 55 of these are rated as severe.  New Zealand has 101 active cases, with 2 rated as severe.  Australia has 794 active cases, with 27 rated as severe.  Taiwan has 94 active cases, none of them severe.  Vietnam has 39 active cases, 8 of them severe.  The virus has not claimed any deaths in Vietnam to date. 

All of these encouraging figures come from the other side of the Pacific.  In other areas, especially European ones, the figures are grim.  Spain’s death rate is still high.  Russia’s incidence rate is steadily increasing.  Already it is seventh on the list on the scale of absolute number of cases, leading all nations except U.S., Spain, Italy, U.K., France, and Germany.  In Germany the number of cases is growing, but the mortality rate remains relatively low, at a little over 4%.  The mortality rates for France and the U.K., in contrast, are both about 15%.  Sweden’s mortality rate is over 12%, considerably higher than that of its Scandinavian neighbors.   

Turkey has had a fairly large number of cases but its incidence rate is considerably below that of most countries in Western Europe and its mortality rate is less than 3%.  Some of the restrictions there are being lifted, such as inter-city travel and the curfew imposed on the elderly and persons less than 20 years old.   

The state of New York canceled the Democratic primary last week.  Biden is already the presumed Democratic candidate, leading Douglas Kellner, a co-chairman of the New York Board of Elections, to say that such an event was “unnecessary and frivolous.”  However, Andrew Yang, one of the other Democratic candidates, brought a suit to contest this action and the judge has ruled in his favor.  That is encouraging news.  I can understand postponing a primary election under the circumstances but canceling it altogether would set a dangerous trend.   Biden is in all probability destined to run against Trump in November, but he should be duly elected to his candidature, not crowned.

Yet another story that illustrates how public officials believe that rules apply to everyone but themselves:  Neil Ferguson, an epidemiologist from Imperial College and a member of the government’s scientific advisory panel, developed models that were critical in the development of the government’s lockdown restrictions.  The restrictions are more severe than they are in the U.S.; people are prohibited from visiting friends and family that they don’t live with.  Recently it was discovered that his married lover has taken trips across London to visit him at his invitation.  He resigned from his position on the panel after a reporter made public the fact that his disregard of the rules that he himself developed is even greater than his disregard of the seventh Commandment.  This is not the only case in the U.K. of a highly placed official resigning after the disclosure of the assumption of special privileges.  Catherine Calderwood, the chief medical officer of Scotland, also had to resign after a photograph in the papers showed her at her family’s second home, several miles from her Edinburgh address.  What is particularly striking about these violations is that they were not made as a result of pressing domestic difficulties or indeed of any kind of circumstance that might cause a conflict of interest; the people concerned were merely unwilling to endure the inconveniences that they imposed upon millions of others.

I cannot help contrasting these displays with the conduct of the one epidemiologist whom I know personally.  She imposes greater restrictions on herself than the state does on others; she will not, for instance, use public transportation even though the buses and the Metro are still operative and she has not undertaken any unnecessary travel whatever, even though we are permitted to go out for the purposes of recreation and exercise. 

Prague has had a notable defenestration some centuries ago, but several Russian locations have recently been making a similar bid for fame.  The head doctor of a hospital in the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, the head of the emergency medical service at Star City (the main training base for Russia’s cosmonauts), and an ambulance doctor in Voronezh, a city about 320 miles south of Moscow, have all “fallen” out of windows in their hospitals.  Alexander Shulepov, the ambulance doctor, is in critical condition; the other two have already died from their injuries.  Each one of them spoke disparagingly about the nation’s policies and the poor state of Russia’s health care system, and by implication about the Putin administration itself.  Vladimir Putin evidently is not the sort of man who accepts criticism tamely.  No wonder he and Trump are such bosom companions!

I went on some errands today and on the way back I passed by my bank.  It is closed like all of the others, but drive-in services are now available – have been so, in fact, for some days.  It goes against the grain, however, to drive to a building that I can reach within the course of a seven-minute walk.  I will rely on the ATM to the greatest extent possible.  The paperwork associated with my father’s death in November was for the most part completed before the lockdown restrictions began, so I do not foresee the need to get any more documents notarized.

The early spring flowers have faded and new ones are rapidly taking their place.  The irises in the garden began to open up today.  Here and there one sees spiderwort in gardens and growing wild.  The Virginia spiderwort, which is the most common variety here (although it actually is a native of Missouri), is notable for its vivid deep-purple petals. 

Donald Trump announced that he is unable to sleep at nights on account of his concern for the coronavirus victims.  Happily, if his figure provides any indication, his appetite appears unimpaired.

Texas began easing its lockdown restrictions on May 1^st, with retail stores, restaurants, movie theatres, malls, museums, and libraries re-opening, although subject to occupancy limitations.  All interactive facilities at these remain closed.  Public swimming pools, bars, gyms, cosmetology salons, massage establishments, interactive amusement venues, such as bowling alleys and video arcades, and tattoo and piercing studios have not yet been allowed to re-open.  Even this relatively limited easement of restrictions, however, may have been premature; the state has had some of the highest spikes in the number of cases within the past three days. 

Cynthia Covert, a salon worker, visited Kiawan Island in South Carolina to give her friend a manicure.  She became fascinated by the sight of an alligator in a nearby pond and, despite the pleas of her friend, waded into the pond to pet it.  The friend warned her that the alligator had seized and eaten a deer from that same spot just a few days ago, but Covert airily replied “I don’t look like a deer.”  When she reached the water, the alligator promptly grabbed her and, despite the efforts of onlookers, pulled her under, drowning her.  The alligator then began to feast on Covert’s limbs.  It had never eaten human flesh before, but reportedly it thought that the meat tasted just like chicken.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 3,818,576; # of deaths worldwide: 264,807; # of cases U.S.: 1,262,692; # of deaths U.S.: 74,791.  Russia is quickly imploding.  Already its case incidence count is close to Germany’s.  At this rate it will overtake both Germany and France in 24 hours, which will place it fifth on the list of nations with the greatest absolute number of cases.  Brazil’s incidence rate is also increasing with great speed.  Spain’s incidence rate is now nearly 0.55% of its population.  Peru has taken aggressive quarantine measures, but the virus is spreading there quickly. 

Hiking on the Roller Coaster – Increased traffic on roads – Details of the easing of restrictions – The sourdough starter put to use – The threatened invasion of cicadas in the U.S. – The actual invasion of locusts in Eastern Africa – Evening statistics

Today I hiked with the Vigorous Hikers, although that statement is not quite accurate.  At this point we are not really hiking together.  We assemble at a trailhead and then complete the hike, each starting at a different time and going at a different speed.  It was a there-and-back hike.  I started early, so I did not even encounter any of the others during the first part of the hike except for one who started earlier still and who was returning when I was approaching the turnaround point.  The hike was along a portion of the so-called “roller coaster” of the Appalachian Trail, starting at Snickers Gap and going to the Blackburn Center.  The Center was closed, of course, and in any case I got there before 10:30, much too early to have lunch there.  The Center can be reached by two spur trails, so that made for a small loop at the midpoint, descending to the Center by one of them and ascending back to the AT via the other.  The day was cloudy and overcast, very different from the day before, and it was considerably cooler.  This segment of the AT is very rocky in spots and was rather slow going.  It was 16 miles and 3600 feet of elevation gain, and it took me nearly 5½ hours to complete.  The highlight of the hike was the view at Crescent Rocks overlooking the Blue Ridge Mountains and the Shenandoah Valley to the southeast.

There are decidedly more cars on the roads now.  Not enough to create traffic jams, but there were plenty of cars waiting wherever I had to stop for a red light.  Restrictions are scheduled to be lifted soon, and people are obviously in the mood for it.  At this point the plan is to allow the non-essential businesses to re-open over the following week.  Gatherings of more than ten people will still be prohibited and face masks will still be required for entering stores.  Teleworking will still be in effect wherever possible.  People will be able to get haircuts, but they will have to make appointments in advance.  It will also be possible to dine at restaurants, but less seating will be available than before, so that people can eat at some distance from one another.  It means that restaurants will not be doing as much business; on the other hand, dining out might become less noisy than before and thereby become more comfortable.  Many American restaurants in the past placed tables so close to one another that it could be very difficult to hold a conversation with people at the same table; the ambient chatter from all over the room drowned everything out.  This was true even in many of the expensive ones with the most elaborate menus.  The only exceptions were some of the so-called ethnic restaurants (Japanese, Indian, Thai, etc.). 

The sourdough batter rose a little, but only a little.  Rather than attempt to make it into loaves I added baking powder to it and used it for biscuits.  That worked out pretty well, and I now have plenty to use for breakfasts.  I’m still on the lookout for yeast, though. 

This year will see a new cycle of the cicadas, whose life-cycle is 17 years.  Some articles speak of it as an “invasion” but they are quite harmless.  Certainly we have more important things to worry about at this point.

The same, however, cannot be said of Eastern Africa, where the locust swarms are largest that have been seen for 70 years.  Kenya, Ethiopia, and Somalia are undergoing the greatest impact.  As many as twenty million people have been described as “food insecure.”

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 3,723,745; # of deaths worldwide: 257,975; # of cases U.S.: 1,237,045; # of deaths U.S.: 72,242. 

Morning statistics – The starter is not starting well – Hiking along the Northwest Branch – Childhood memories – Brookside Gardens – Encouraging news from a friend – Invitation to a virtual memorial service – Virtual meeting with hiking board members – PF’s experience with the virus – Schedule of re-openings for Virginia – An example of heroism – Ominous prognostics for Social Security – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 3,585,711; # of deaths worldwide: 248,771; # of cases U.S.: 1,188,870; # of deaths U.S.: 68,606.  The incidence rate in Ireland is now second only to Spain.  However, its mortality rate is far lower.  It is about only a third of that of the U.K.  Sweden’s mortality rate seems to be accelerating.  Both Australia and New Zealand appear to have the virus under control.  In New Zealand none of the active cases are rated as critical.  The two countries are planning to allow travel from one to the other.

The sourdough starter has risen a little but not as much as I had hoped.  I will give it more time but it doesn’t rise any more I will stir in baking powder and salt into the batter and use it to make biscuits.  When I was shopping this morning I was on the lookout for yeast but none was available.  It has been off of the shelves for weeks now.

Today was splendid:  sunny, in the low 70s, without humidity, clear, and dry.  Since I had to shop in the morning I did not wish to drive any great distance, so I went to hike on the Rachel Carson and Northwest Branch Trails, with a side visit to Brookside Gardens.

Hiking along the Northwest Branch of the Anacostia River . . .  that does not, when written down baldly, seem like a particularly enticing description.  Yet it is a sample of the piedmont scenery at its best:  a gently plashing brook meandering through dense woods, with leafy tree limbs arching in a vault over the trail and shafts of sunlight streaming though the foliage, at times illuminating it with a peculiar golden-green tinge.  The two trails are fairly flat, with mild ups and downs; walking along them is not a “workout” but it can provide some very agreeable exertion nonetheless, particularly in the rockier areas of the gorge near Colesville Road.  It is an area that has many memories for me, for I grew in a neighborhood that adjoins one of the trails.

The Northwest Trail is well-maintained now; it was rougher during the days of my childhood and adolescence.  There were no blazes, no signposts, and the Rachel Carson Trail was not even complete; one had to bushwhack a bit on the east side of the river to go all the way from the dam to Kemp Mill Road.  Three rills cross the Northwest Branch Trail as it approaches the dam, and these had no bridges when I was growing up.  Instead we went on top of the cylindrical sewer pipes that projected above the flowing water, which test of balance my brother and I thoroughly enjoyed.  I suppose anxious parents have objected to this arrangement, for there are barriers on top of the pipes now.  There is parking at either end of the trail, but I deliberately parked in my old neighborhood, not far from the house in which I grew up and in which my parents lived for 37 years.  Its exterior, at any rate, has changed curiously little since 1960, the year that we first moved in. Thus in my formative years I always had a fixed point of reference, and perhaps that fact might subtly alter my perceptions from those of men and women who have moved from one place to another during their childhood. 

I look upon my childhood as being rather sheltered for the most part; and yet in some ways it was curiously unsupervised.  I and my brother and nearly every child in the neighborhood would wander in the neighboring woods on his own, and no one then thought that the least odd.  Matters shifted a great deal within the course of a generation.  When I was in my thirties I had a colleague with a step-daughter to whom she was devoted, and it was her custom to take time off work each school day to pick up this girl to transport her home.  When I mentioned how I would walk home from the school or bus stop during my own childhood, she looked at me in horror.  “Oh, I’d never allow her to do that!” she said, in heartfelt tones.  “It’s much too dangerous for anyone that age to be walking alone.”  In the same way, when my brother and I lived in Copenhagen and London during my father’s sabbatical in 1966/67, we used the public transportation on our own as a matter of course.  I was twelve at the time and he was nine.  My British friends assure me that none of them would ever allow a child of theirs to do so now.

A few surprises awaited me when I arrived.  The parking areas at each end had not been closed up, as I had expected them to be.  And there were not many people on the trail.  There were a few, to be sure, but I expected to see a much greater number, considering what a fine day it was and also considering that the two trails are in a network with numerous short spur trails that connect them to various neighborhoods and that provide residents with easy access. 

The loop between the dam and Brookside Gardens using the Northwest Branch Trail on one side of the stream and the Rachel Carson Trail on the other is about 8½ miles.  I extended the hike a bit, however, by going past Colesville Road to the bottom of the gorge before heading back, and then at the other end I spent a good deal of time in Brookside Gardens itself.  That also is very familiar to me; indeed, I was one of its first visitors.  I knew that this time of year was one of the best times to go, since the Azalea Garden would be flowering in full splendor. The approach to the Gude Garden as one ascends, very slightly, from the Azalea Gardens is one of the most artistic I’ve seen in any public garden.  Even at Brookside, though more people were walking there than on the trails, it was not at all crowded. 

I encountered MH, a member of the Wanderbirds club with whom I have enjoyed many hiking trips together.  She gave me news of her husband CB, another club member (indeed I have co-led hikes with him on several occasions).  He had been compelled to undergo chemotherapy recently to contain some cells that might otherwise have formed into tumors, but the treatments are complete now, the cancerous cells have been contained, and he has suffered no bad after-effects.  He is now getting out and covering ten or twelve miles a day on foot.

Upon return, I received a notice about a virtual memorial service for CC’s husband FP.  It uses the Zoom application, which I am not familiar with, so I hope I will be able to use it properly to be able to sign in.

This evening I participated in a virtual meeting with members of the CHC Board.  We were forced to agree that setting up a hike that involves a busload of people is not likely to happen for several months, possibly even beyond the end of the year.  Nonetheless we will keep monitoring the situation to see when it is possible to charter a bus for a group of 40-50 people.  Any activity involving a group of people this large may have to be postponed for some time.  Shenandoah National Park, where many of the club’s hikes take place, still remains completely closed.  No access is permitted even coming from the outside (there are many trails that cross over the park boundary but at this point they are all off-limits within the confines of the park property). 

Also, PF disclosed some more details about his recent illness.  He initially had a fever, which then subsided, and at one point he felt well enough to resume working.  Then it flared up again with renewed force, making him much weaker.  This symptom is apparently not uncommon.  Another point of interest is that he was not tested.  Both he and his physician believe his illness to have been due to the virus, but since his state was never serious enough to require hospitalization it was easier simply to wait it out.  That means that his case and cases like it are not included in the number of virus incidences.  In one way it is encouraging news:  if the number of cases is under-reported, it means that the mortality rate is proportionately much less.  On the other hand, it means that one is more likely to be infected by it.  Even a so-called “mild” case is a troublesome experience; PF, for example was bed-ridden for three weeks. 

There is also the question of where he could have picked it up.  He has been telecommuting and, like everyone else, has been living in a state of isolation.  The most likely explanation is that he contracted it when shopping for groceries.  So it seems advisable to keep shopping excursions to a minimum.  This echoes the advice of my Facebook acquaintance who works in a grocery store:  make a list in advance, buy sufficient food for several days at a time, don’t dawdle in the aisles, don’t chat with other customers, and keep the length of the visit to the store as brief as possible.

Governor Northam is hoping to re-open non-essential businesses on May 15^th for Virginia.  However, he has given a warning that the virus will remain a threat after that date.  (Shenandoah National Park is on a different schedule, since it is a national park, not a state park.  It may remain closed long after the state resumes activity.)

Amid so many stories of incompetence and even sordidness among our leaders, there emerge examples of quiet heroism by people in less high positions.  Paul Cary, a paramedic from Colorado, traveled 1800 miles to aid the embattled EMS services of New York City.  He drove for 27 hours without stopping, alternating driving shifts with another volunteer, and reached New York on March 29^th.  There he tended patients in the back of his ambulance continually until he fell ill himself with the virus.  He died on April 30^th.  Ambulance workers in dozens of EMS vehicles attended the funeral procession, both in New York, where the procession started, up to the point where the coffin was placed on a plane from Newark to Denver, and in Colorado.  He had retired ten years earlier but was continually working and risking his life on a volunteer basis. 

Some experts are worried about the amount of money available for Social Security and say that it is possible that payments may have to be cut by 24% within 15 years or so.  The problem is wide-reaching.  Over 60% of retirees rely on these payments for at least half of their income.  At least a third of them rely on it for 90%-100% of their expenses.  I can understand why younger people might get impatient at the idea of funding so many elderly people who are no longer working, but it has to be remembered that every one of them was compelled to put money they earned into the program.  They had no choice in the matter.  It is only fair that they get their money back in their old age.

It is true, however, that people are living longer and that the ratio of working people to retirees is shrinking.  It’s not easy to see how the situation can be remedied.  If I, for instance, deferred Social Security payments longer than my planned start date in November and re-entered the work force, I would in a very small way be helping to keep the ratio of working people to retirees larger.  But I would also be taking away a job from someone else in the process, someone who might conceivably need that job much more than I do.  The work shortage, which I alluded to earlier, is not going to go away.

From a purely socio-economic point of view, I suppose that the best thing I could do in order to place as little a burden on my fellow-countrymen would be to expire quietly in my sleep when I reach the Biblical threescore-and-ten, which is less than five years from now.  It is, however, a course of action that does not commend itself to me.  I cannot account for it, but so it is.

Today’s statistics as of 8:30 PM — # of cases worldwide: 3,642,068; # of deaths worldwide: 252,024; # of cases U.S.: 1,212,345; # of deaths U.S.: 69,725.  Just under 80% of the cases in the U.S. are still active.  Of these, “only” about 1.5% are rated critical, but that still amounts to over 16,000 people. 

Morning statistics – Rainy weather – Re-opening schedules – Israel – Closing of the field hospital in Manhattan – Disturbing developments in Brazil – The sourdough starter again – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 9:30 AM — # of cases worldwide: 3,507,442; # of deaths worldwide: 245,241; # of cases U.S.: 1,162,049; # of deaths U.S.: 67,492.  Our incidence rate with respect to other nations is steadily growing higher.  The nations with the highest incidence rates are now, in decreasing order, Spain, Belgium, Ireland, U.S., Italy, Switzerland, Singapore, France, Portugal, and the Netherlands.  Previously we were the seventh on this list, now we are the fourth.  The nations with the highest mortality rates are now Belgium, Spain, Italy, U.K, France, the Netherlands, Sweden, Ireland, U.S, and Portugal.  We are still the ninth on this list, although the relative rankings of the other nations have shifted.

More rain today!  The spring season has certainly been lovely but it has also been quite wet.  We normally get a little over three inches of rain for the month of April, but this year it’s been twice that amount. 

States have begun to re-open but the death toll in the nation yesterday was nearly 3,000 – the largest amount in a single day.  One must not automatically assume a cause and effect between the two.  Many of the deaths have undoubtedly been pending for several days.  But governors may put a break on the lifting of lockdown restrictions if we don’t see a continual decline in new cases.

Schools are re-opening in Israel.  Israel has slightly less than nine million people, but its incidence rate is little over that of the Scandinavian nations and its mortality rate is lower – less than 1.5%.  Nonetheless the exit strategy there appears to be nearly as chaotic as our own.  For a long time the lockdown restrictions stated that people should venture no more than 500 meters from their homes; this fiat was almost unilaterally ignored.  Social distancing is practiced very sporadically and hardly anyone is wearing a mask.  The Health Ministry has protested the laxity of this behavior, but it itself is in a state of disarray.  Yaakov Litzman – he who stated that the virus is a divine punishment – has been forced to resign, and no one wants to take his place.  At this point the nation still has well over 6,000 active cases, although only 103 of them are considered critical; but this policy of rushing matters may alter that happy state of affairs.

The field hospital in Central Park is scheduled to close in two weeks, as the numbers of new cases in New York City are seeing a heartening trend of decline.

Manaus, a city in Brazil of slightly over 2 million, may see as many as 4,200 burials this month.  The city’s health care system is in ruins, with all of its intensive-care beds occupied and hundreds of patients left untreated.  Brazil officially has 97,100 cases and 6,761 deaths, but experts say that the actual numbers may be – indeed, probably are – about 15 times greater.  If that estimate turns out to be correct, it means that Brazil is second only to Spain in the greatest percentages of cases per population and to Spain and Belgium in the greatest percentages of deaths per population.  Edmar Santos, the secretary of health for Rio de Janeiro, says that the health care system of the entire nation might collapse within a month.

The weather cleared up towards the end of the day, so I was able to get in a few miles and do some yardwork besides.  The early spring blossoms are gone now, but the azaleas are flowering and the irises are beginning to bloom.  Afterwards I took a look at the sourdough starter, and it had an encouragingly spongy appearance.  So I mixed the batter and set it aside overnight for the first rising.  We’ll see if I have more success this time.  As an acquaintance of mine who was given to malapropisms would say, “It’s in the laps of the cards.”

Today’s statistics as of 11:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 3,566,197; # of deaths worldwide: 248,285; # of cases U.S.: 1,188,122; # of deaths U.S.: 68,568.  China claims to have less than 500 active cases now.  In both Spain and Italy the recovery rate is now outpacing the rate of new infections.  In both Russia and Brazil, however, the daily number of new cases is accelerating.

Morning statistics – Local hiking – Effects of virus on Farmers’ Markets – Dinner at home – The new Press Secretary – Decrease in car crashes and accident fatalities – Protests in Lansing – Michigan’s high mortality rate – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 3,422,291; # of deaths worldwide: 240,334; # of cases U.S.: 1,131,856; # of deaths U.S.: 65,782.  The websites supplying the data duly note that the following territories have no active cases of the virus at this point:  Anguilla (population 17,400), St. Barthélemy (population 10,000), Greenland (population 55,500), and the Falkland Islands (population 4,000).  But these are so isolated and have such tiny populations that they are insignificant statistically.  More significant are countries such as Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan, and New Zealand.  Vietnam in particular has had no deaths from the virus to date and only eight cases still active.  The CDC has double-checked the data coming from Hanoi and has confirmed its validity.  Vietnam’s measures have been very pro-active:  banning of domestic flights in late March, a lockdown that began on April 1^st and is continuing, 791 people tested for every single confirmed case (one of the highest ratios of any country, perhaps the highest). 

The weather has been wet this past week, and even when it has not been raining the sky for the most part was dark and overcast.  But today the “busy old fool, unruly sun” was displayed in a cerulean sky amid pale cumulus clouds as dainty in appearance as puff pastry; hence it was only natural that I spent most of the day outside.  I had no wish to drive in a car, so I simply set forth from my house, walked to Miller Heights, went along the Cross County Trail to Reston where it intersected the W&OD Trail, followed the W&OD Trail to Vienna, meandered along the streets to the Vienna Metro Station, and from there walked home – about 23 miles in all and, perhaps, with all of the little ups and downs taken into account, about 1000 feet elevation gain.  During this journey I passed the area where normally the first Farmer’s Market of the year would be held, close to the courthouse; but of course it was silent and empty.  Will Farmer’s Markets generally be a casualty of this crisis?  The marketers will lose at least six weeks of the season, which is from May to October.  Along the CCT I skirted by several great concentrations of broad-leaf plantain, which I had not noticed before, even though I’ve been on the trail at least a dozen times.  It was muddy in many areas, but that was only to be expected after the amount of rain we had earlier.  We are now in the middle of spring; the leaves no longer possess the diaphanous quality that characterizes their initial appearance, and as a result the depths of the forest are darker and shadier.  At Vienna I went around the Whole Foods store, with a vague idea of going in and pursuing a fast snack or two, but that idea had to be quickly abandoned; there was a long line of customers waiting patiently on the sidewalk leading to the store.  When I arrived at home I was rather tired, of course, but I was also hungry and so I lost little time in preparing dinner:  broiled salmon, rice seasoned with various herbs, zucchini stir-fried with garlic, and fresh pineapple for dessert.  It was a simple enough meal and took little time to prepare, but I could not help reflecting that I was eating a better meal than was available to people living in neighborhoods less plentifully stocked with food stores than mine is. 

Such was my day; what has been going on in the nation at large?

Kayleigh McEnany has been appointed as Trump’s new press secretary and she held a formal briefing with reporters, the first time in over a year that that has happened.  During this exchange she said that “I will never lie to you, you have my word on that” to her auditors.  I doubt if the reporters were greatly reassured – what is to prevent that statement in itself to be a lie?  And the fact that she feels compelled to give such a reassurance speaks volumes about how reporters were treated by the administration in the past.  She may, perhaps, be quite well-meaning, but she will have her work cut out for her, trying to relay information from an administration that habitually deals in equivocations, half-truths, and outright falsehoods.

Car crashes, and fatal ones in particular, have decreased dramatically as a result of the lockdown measures.  In California the number of deaths on the freeways has decreased by a startling 84%.  New York City has not had a single pedestrian death in 46 days – which has never been heard of before. 

Carmen Gentile, a reporter who has covered military war zones such as Afghanistan, Iraq, and Haiti, is currently on the scene at Lansing, MI, and he says that he is more frightened now than he has been on any other assignment.  Armed protestors are not only calling for the end of a lockdown but for the imprisonment of the state governor, although she has been elected by due process and has not broken any law.  Several of the lawmakers are so fearful for their lives that they have donned bullet-proof vests to protect themselves.  Comparisons with Germany before WWII are easy to make, but this state of affairs does bear some resemblance to the conditions that enabled Hitler to make his putsch.

Michigan, incidentally, has the highest death rate from the disease of any state.  The number of fatalities from the virus now stands at 9.13%, whereas the national average is 5.8%.  Most of the fatalities occur in Detroit and the surrounding counties, which should come as a surprise to no one. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 3,479,521; # of deaths worldwide: 244,581; # of cases U.S.: 1,159,430; # of deaths U.S.: 67,391.  We have had 28,400 new cases and 1,638 more deaths in the course of a day.

Morning statistics – Hopeful developments in Southeast Asia and New Zealand – Discouraging news from Eastern Europe and Latin America – Slowdown in easing of restrictions in various states – Reminiscences about the purchase of my home – The all-important monthly mortgage payment  — House-buying, then and now – Job security less frequent – Potential diminishment of available jobs – Our legislators removed from these evils – The pious rich man and the rabbi – Nick Cordero – Hungary and gender by birth – Kim Jong-un regrettably still alive – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 7:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 3,325,620; # of deaths worldwide: 234,485; # of cases U.S.: 1,095,304; # of deaths U.S.: 63,871.  China at this point claims to have fewer than 600 active cases.  More reliable are the data from South Korea:  it has had 10,774 cases to date, with 9,072 recoveries and 248 deaths, leaving 1,454 still active.  Of these, 55 are rated critical.  Taiwan and Vietnam have both been doing well.  Taiwan has had only 429 cases and 6 deaths, with 99 still active.  None of the ones still active are rated as critical.  Vietnam has had 270 cases and no deaths at all, with 51 still active.  Of these, 8 are rated as critical.  New Zealand has had 1,479 cases and 19 deaths.  There are 208 cases still active, with only 1 rated critical.  So there are many bright spots. 

Unfortunately none of them are in Europe or North America.  There have been significant increases in Russia, Mexico, and Brazil.  Eastern Europe has in general been less severely affected by the virus than Western Europe, but the number of new cases in Russia is a troubling sign.  In general, the medical care systems of Eastern European nations are more vulnerable than those of the Western European ones.  If the virus gains momentum there it will be difficult to contain. 

Various states are slowing down on the relaxation of restrictions.  California has closed some of the beaches it had previously opened.  Governor Newson apparently was contemplating closing all of the beaches but he has limited the closure to the beaches in Los Angeles and Orange Counties.  Governor Mike DeWine, of Ohio, has announced that the stay-at-home order, scheduled to end today, will be extended; no new date has been given.  Dr. Fauci has warned the states planning to re-open to do so slowly, and not to make such an attempt unless they have at least a two-week decline in the number of new cases.  

Today is an anniversary for me.  On May 1, 1986, I quitted the apartment that I was renting in Reston and moved into the house in which I am living now.  On that day my status changed from that of renter to house-owner.  Several memories are still fresh from that time.  I could relate here, for example, that the actual date of purchase, when the contract was signed, occurred on April 15^th but that the previous owners wished to stay in the house two weeks longer.  I readily agreed to this proposal, for the arrangement was convenient for me as well; I would be getting full value for the rent payment I had made for April and I would in addition be receiving a rental payment for one half-month.  And then, when I first moved in, the house seemed strangely large and half-empty, for the apartment in which I had lived consisted of a bedroom, a living room, and a den, and the number of rooms in the house was greater.  And numerous other circumstances linger in my memory – the fact, for instance, that the contract was signed on the same day that income taxes were due, and the complications that ensued because the bank was behindhand in its paperwork, and the manner in which the realtor precipitated matters by calling on one of his golfing friends who was also an official at the bank for assistance, and so on.  But the circumstance that pressed most vividly upon my consciousness when the house passed into my hands was the sum still owing on the house:  $90,000 in all, which does not sound like a large amount today but which at the time represented nearly three years of salary for me. 

Inflation had taken a turn for the worse during the years of the Carter administration and double-digit interest rates on loans were the norm, but the policies of Reagan were bringing the interest rates down.  The mortgage rate on which I procured the loan was 10%, which was on the low side for that era.  The interest rates continued to fall over the years, and at one point I re-financed the loan, locking in at a rate of 7.25% and at the same time converting my 30-year mortgage to a 15-year one.  It was, moreover, a loan without penalties for pre-payment, and I took advantage of that by making additional payments in the early years.  The earliest payments of a mortgage have a high proportion of interest to principal, and by pre-paying I was able to eliminate a substantial fraction of the total amount of interest paid on the loan.  By the year 2001 the mortgage was payed off entirely.

Those mortgage payments were a kind of riverbank that shaped my life.  For other expenditures one could delay payment on them – with a penalty of a certain amount of interest, it is true, and a penalty that I strove to incur as seldom as possible – but that option was always available.  But the mortgage payments were a different matter.  Those could not be deferred.  Every month a portion of my after-tax salary had to be set aside for that purpose.  What remained could be devoted to other expenses and even to menus plaisirs – and, indeed, I did not stint myself over the years.  But always, always I was conscious of the payment that had to be made at the end of the month.  There is nothing unusual about such a mindset; it is, I should imagine, fairly common among householders whose mortgage is not paid off in full and among renters of houses or apartments. 

After the mortgage was paid off I became a great deal less conscious of monetary pressures.  If there was the prospect, once the mortgage was free and clear, of my being laid off, such a threat no longer seemed as alarming as it previously had been; whatever else might befall me, I would have a place in which to live.  In actual fact, matters went well with me.  At no point was my career in jeopardy; my skills were always in demand, I lived in comfort, I was able to build up a portfolio; and so matters continued until I elected to retire.  I am in a good position now, perhaps even an enviable one.  Perfect security of course is not to be expected under any circumstances, but between pensions and yields from investments and eventual Social Security payments, my position is probably as secure as anyone could desire.

I muse upon these circumstances because I am now driven to speculate how the experiences of renters and householders today will differ from mine, particularly during the economic aftermath of a crisis that has already reduced our GNP by 4.8%.  My successful outcome was in part the result of careful management, no doubt.  I always budgeted for the monthly payment and when the opportunity came to make that payment as little burdensome as possible, I was quick to seize upon it.  But part of it was also luck – or more precisely, the national economic conditions that were favorable for leading up to such a result.  And there were other factors that worked in my favor.  I had a skillset that happened to be in demand, and when I saw opportunities to obtain new skills the organizations for which I worked were happy to supply me with training.  Occasionally I fretted about what the future would hold when the project on which I was currently working came to an end, but as time passed it became apparent that a long period of unemployment was unlikely. 

So the question arises:  How does a young man or woman of the present day, just beginning to make his or her way, grapple with the issue of shelter?

To begin with, inflation rates will undoubtedly go up.  Rent and mortgage payments will become higher and they will buy less.  Then, too, there is the matter of house prices and their ratio to income.  When I went house-hunting the standard advice was to look for a dwelling whose price was 3-4 times one’s annual salary.  I do not believe that such a guideline holds true today. 

Again, job security will probably become less common.  During the period of my own career job security was certainly sporadic enough.  Employment in the Government sector was fairly stable. So, too, was the information technology industry in which I worked, at any rate in certain regions.  Those who worked in retail were in a more precarious situation.  And those whose skillset was more limited always had to contend against the threat of automation.  

At this point the problem of the work shortage will become more acute.  Jobs in industries such as travel, tourism, hospitality, and so on, will probably be reduced.  Restaurants will have a more difficult time making a profit if they are prohibited from placing its customers in close proximity to each other.  So will food markets and department stores.  Small independent shops will diminish in number as ordering online becomes more common.  In short, I do not see how a sufficient amount of income sources will be available for the number of people who need them to obtain housing.

How these evils are to be remedied I do not know.  One feature, however, seems clear:  we can expect no help whatever from our law-makers.  They simply do not have first-hand experience of such matters.  The average holdings of the members of our Senate amount to something in the neighborhood of nine-to-ten million dollars.  Unless they are unusually empathetic or imaginative, they can have no conception of that all-important monthly payment.  Our system, indeed, makes it virtually impossible for persons of moderate income to run for such offices.  The only one I know of who was not wealthy in his or her own right during the time of election is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez; and once she assumed office she has not been a friend to the wage-earners.  On the contrary, she has consistently advocated policies that tax them to such a degree that they hardly have any discretionary funds of their own.

There is a story concerning a pious rich man who was questioned by a prominent rabbi about his habits.  When the subject of his meals came up, he said that he ate very simply, chiefly upon bread and salt, with water to drink. Whereupon the rabbi turned on him with scorn.

“Why do you not eat meat and drink wine,” he said, “suitable to a man of your position?”

And he continued to assail the man in this fashion until the rich man, in bewilderment, promised faithfully that in future he would eat meat and drink wine.

After the rich man departed, the rabbi’s disciples bombarded the rabbi with questions.  Why he had been so severe on the rich man for living simply?  What difference did it make whether he ate meat or not?  Or if it did, was he not rather to be commended for not indulging his appetites and abstaining from gluttony?

The rabbi heard out all of their questions and comments patiently, and when they were done he gave the following reply.

“This man,” he said, “is a rich man.  If he eats meat and drinks wine, then he will be able to grasp the concept that a poor man may eat bread and drink water to satisfy hunger and thirst.  But if he abstains from meat and confines himself to bread and water, even out of motives of piety, he will eventually wind up thinking that the poor ought to eat stones.”

And so it is with the wealthy men and women who sit in the House and the Senate.  They are, for the most part, well-intentioned.  They earnestly wish to help many in need:  the homeless, the refugees fleeing from impoverished countries, the youth driven by the conditions of the ghetto into crime.  But in the process they continually absorb greater and greater portions of income from the wage-earners, without reflecting that expenditures that may be a trifling inconvenience for people in their own walk of life can be killing sacrifices for those whose income is far less than their own.  Sooner or later they lose sight of that all-important monthly payment for rent or mortgage.  Sooner or later they end up thinking that the lower and the middle classes ought to eat stones. 

But on to other matters –

Nick Cordero, the Broadway actor who had to have a leg amputated as a result of complications from COVID-19, is not done with his battle with the virus.  His lungs have been damaged.  Holes have developed in the lungs and they continually fill up with fungus, necessitating periodic cleanings.  His prospects for ultimate survival are far from certain.  It has to be reiterated:  he was relatively young, in good health, and in excellent physical condition before the virus struck.  Having no underlying complications may increase the chances of emerging from an attack of the virus unscathed, but it is by no means a guarantee.

Hungary, a nation with a long history of marching under its own banner, is in the process of passing a law that will compel people to use the gender assigned to them at birth on official ID documentation such as passports, drivers’ licenses, etc.  As a matter of course, several LGBT and transgender representative groups are up in arms and are calling upon the European Union to put pressure on Hungary to quash the law.  I sincerely hope that the European Union will not squander their energies on this folly, especially when they have so much more pressing business at hand.  If a man wishes to wear dresses, adorn himself with women’s cosmetics, and admit none but men to his bed, let him indulge these preferences to his heart’s content; but he has no business calling himself a woman.  Certain matters are pre-determined at conception.  My height, for instance, is slightly under5’8” (172 centimeters).  But if I were to hobble about on shoes with heels of 4 inches or more and declare that my mindset has always been that of a tall man, I doubt very much that the six-footers would clasp me to their bosom and embrace me as one of themselves.  These so-called “transgender women” are nothing but glorified castrati.  Similarly, if a woman takes testosterone supplements, crimps her breasts in the manner that Victorian ladies compressed their waists, and conducts amorous dalliance with other women only, she still is not a man.  She is a male impersonator.  Salud to you, Hungary, for standing firm on that point.  Or should I say egészségére?

Kim Jong-un has apparently been seen again.  At least, the North Korean news agency stated that he has just attended the completion of a fertilizer plant north of the capital.  There is no independent confirmation of this report, but the stories about his possible botched surgery or his death have become more doubtful.  He may even not have undergone any surgical operation at all.  President Trump has addressed this issue in his usual statesmanlike fashion; when asked about Kim’s health he growled out, “I don’t want to talk about it.”

Today’s statistics as of 8:30 PM — # of cases worldwide: 3,398,473; # of deaths worldwide: 239,448; # of cases U.S.: 1,131,030; # of deaths U.S.: 65,753.  Russia has had its highest daily increase and Mikhail Mishustin, the Prime Minister, has been diagnosed with the virus.  It now has more cases than China and Iran.  The virus is making its way through Brazil.  Even though the death toll is relatively low at the moment (less than 7,000 in a country whose population is 211,000,000) the upsurge is high enough to create a shortage of coffins.  It is possible that both the incidence of cases and the mortality rate is higher than reported, due to the difficulty of getting accurate data from some of its more remote areas.  The actual number of cases may under-reported by as much as a factor of ten.  It borders nearly every other country on the continent and its neighbors have been greatly alarmed, especially since Brazil has not imposed any travel restrictions on its citizens going in or out of the country.  Ecuador is undergoing similar difficulties; in Guayaquil morgues and cemeteries have been so overwhelmed that some families have had to leave their relatives’ remains exposed on the street.  From Venezuela it is almost impossible to obtain reliable data.  In all probability the incidence rate and the mortality rate are much higher than reported.  At this point most Venezuelans do not have access to a reliable water source, which makes it difficult for them to clean themselves.  Chile is issuing “release certificates” to those who have had the virus and have since recovered, even though the WHO says that there is no evidence that having contracted the virus once confers immunity. 

Morning statistics – More traffic on roads than earlier – Variety of houses in Fairfax – Stimulus checks – The upcoming election – Possible setback to Biden’s chances – Larry Hogan outwits Trump – The U.S. as an object of pity – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 9:30 AM — # of cases worldwide: 3,244,586; # of deaths worldwide: 229,182; # of cases U.S.: 1,064,836; # of deaths U.S.: 61,680.  The incidence rate in Russia is accelerating.  In absolute terms it ranks eighth in the number of cases nation-wide.  Proportionately it still has considerably less than the Western European countries and the U.S., but it is rapidly closing the gap.  The mortality rate is about 1%, but this will probably change as the cases that are currently active come to a resolution. 

I visited my mother again today.  She is too sunk in her dementia to recognize me, but her physical health is well enough.  Traffic along the Beltway was more crowded than before.  Part of the reason was that it was raining heavily, but there are definitely more cars on the road than there were earlier this month.  People are beginning to chafe against the lockdown restrictions and are going out more than they have been doing in the past several weeks.  At no point did I feel justified in using cruise control.  During my return drive to Virginia I saw a traffic tie-up on the Inner Loop caused by an accident.  In short, things are getting back to normal.

The rain came down in torrents today but it cleared up in the evening.  I went out briefly when it was still daylight, savoring the freshness of the air (it has such a clean scent after the end of a rainfall) and the chorus of birds in song.  I am fortunate in the neighborhood in which I have chosen to live.  It is older than many of the other neighborhoods in Northern Virginia, and as a result people have had a greater amount of time to alter their houses with additional verandas, patios, sunrooms, even an additional floor in some cases.  Some of these alterations may not be beautiful individually, but the net effect has been to overcome the amount of uniformity among the houses.  Some months ago I visited a neighborhood in Ashburn to meet with a friend; it consisted of townhouses and their interiors were comfortably laid out, but the identical exteriors of every single one of them on block after block had a depressing effect on me.  It was rather like seeing a giant beehive.  Here hardly any two houses look alike.  Individuality extends to the gardens as well.  In some cases people have elected not to have grass lawns at all, but to devote every square inch of their yards to flowers, shrubs, vegetables, and fruit trees.  Luckily we have no homeowner’s association to interfere with such projects.

My stimulus check came through today.  Checks sent through the mail have Donald Trump’s signature on them rather than that of the head of the Treasury Department; but since I elected to have the check sent via direct deposit, I will have to forego the contemplation of that most precious of autographs.  It’s a bit of a blow, admittedly, but I think I’ll be able to weather it.

Speaking of Trump – I wish I didn’t have to so often but the subject is unavoidable – various polls have indicated that Biden is leading him by a large margin in the coming election.  Trump has reacted in the way one might expect; he assailed his opponent with random abuse and concluded by saying “I don’t believe in polls.”  

Sadly, there is one circumstance that may justify Trump’s confidence.  Biden has been accused of sexual assault by Tara Reade, a former staff assistant in Biden’s Senate office.  The incident is alleged to have occurred in 1993, so it is very unlikely that any corroborating evidence will emerge at this point.  But it is the sort of story that could dog Biden during the election.  It doesn’t help matters that the same people in the Democratic party who were the loudest in condemning Brett Kavanaugh on similar evidence when he was nominated for Supreme Court justice in 2018 are the most prominent of Biden’s defenders.  Their public support of him may actually impede Biden’s campaign.

In all candor I admit that I would vote for Biden even if he is discovered to have assembled an entire harem devoted to his private use, so desirous am I of getting rid of Trump.  My attitude is that of Macduff when he importunes Malcolm to rule Scotland in Macbeth’s stead, even when Malcolm tests him out by claiming to be worse:

 . . . Not in the legions
Of horrid hell can come a devil more damned
In evils to top . . .

. . . Trump.

The governor of Maryland appears to agree with me.  Larry Hogan has obtained, after a laborious 22-day period of negotiations and through the use of his wife’s connections with her native land, thousands of testkits from South Korea.  He ensured that the flight delivering them landed at the Baltimore/Washington airport – the first time that a Korean Air passenger plane has landed there – instead of Dulles, which is more distant from the state capital of Annapolis.  When they were unloaded he promptly spirited them away to an undisclosed location protected by the Maryland National Guard.  He has frankly declared that they are being protected against seizure.  He has ample reason to fear interference from agencies acting under Trump’s orders; Governor Charlie Baker of Massachusetts previously ordered 3 million N95 masks for medical care workers in the state, only to see them confiscated by Trump’s thugs (respectfully denominated as “federal officials”) when the masks arrived at the port of New York.  In effect, Governor Hogan has been conducting a clandestine operation to avert the theft of supplies that cost so much effort to acquire – theft not by a terrorist group but by our own president.  This is a scenario that hitherto was more typical of government in Tsarist Russia than of our country.  In fact, it sounds like the plot of a story by Gogol.

From Fintan O’Toole, columnist for the Irish Times:  “The world has loved, hated and envied the U.S. Now, for the first time, we pity it.”  Indeed, our unfortunate country is greatly to be pitied at this point.  It is in the hands of a very bad steward.

Today’s statistics as of 8:30 PM — # of cases worldwide: 3,307,691; # of deaths worldwide: 234,075; # of cases U.S.: 1,095,023; # of deaths U.S.: 63,856.  There does appear to be a slowdown in the progress of the virus.  The amount of new deaths is relatively small; most of these are in Mexico and Brazil.  The case incidence rate is quite high in Ireland, trailing that of Spain and Belgium, although its mortality rate is relatively low (just under 6%). 

Morning statistics – Unseasonable weather – The Eden Center – Consultation with an electrician – The webinar – Visit with friends – Possibility of re-instatement of Brett Crozier – Funeral for a Hasidic rabbi – Boris Johnson’s new son – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 3,160,779; # of deaths worldwide: 219,265; # of cases U.S.: 1,035,765; # of deaths U.S.: 59,266.  No changes in the U.S. figures since last night, so clearly the figures have not been updated yet.  The number of active cases in China, officially, is down to 647.  Russia has seen a huge increase in new cases, almost 6,000.  Spain, sadly, has had an increase of more than 450 deaths.  Its case incidence rate is now over 0.05%.  On the whole, the number of new cases and the number of new deaths appear to be reaching a plateau. 

The weather has been cool, damp, and overcast for the last several days, but today it has cleared up at last.  It is sunny and warm, a near-perfect spring day.  It seems a pity that the weather was not like that yesterday when I was hiking through the concentration of trilliums; but then, if it had been, the trail would doubtless have been much more crowded. 

One of the casualties from the virus may be the Eden Center, the shopping center in Falls Church that was set up by the Vietnamese community in 1984 after shops and restaurants in the so-called “Little Saigon” area were being crowded out by the construction of the Clarendon Metro station and the opening of various shopping areas in Ballston.  It provided a wonderful assortment of restaurants along with an extensive supermarket where one could easily pick up items (such as fresh water chestnuts, for example) that were not readily obtainable anywhere else.  Store after store is being boarded up and it is not certain how many will re-open once the lockdown is over.  How, indeed, can any store remain operative when its rate of business has dropped by as much as 90%? 

Today has been eventful, at any rate by the standards of the solitude enforced by the stay-at-home restrictions.  In the morning I admitted an electrician to my house, since I have recently undergone temporary power outages when the rest of the neighborhood was unaffected.  He explained to me that there were issues with my circuit breaker, which was installed when my house was built sixty years ago and that in all probability it should be replaced soon.  That was certainly not welcome news, but he replaced a faulty breaker that seemed the most likely cause of the outages, and on the whole I consider that I got off lightly.

Then I heard the webinar for which I had signed up earlier in the week.  In brief, the recovery period will probably take a couple of years to complete.  Many people have been thrown out of work, and in some cases the incentive to seek employment is lacking, because they are earning more money through unemployment benefits than they could have earned while working.  Investments will continue as usual, with the investors seeking out those stocks that are most likely to increase as the economy starts to rebound.  It seems likely that we will as a nation experience a measure of inflation, particularly as the interest rates have been abnormally low for years.  Also, some industries will revert to normal more quickly than others.  Only about 30% of the workers will be able to tele-commute; the remainder of them will be forced to be at the workplace in person to discharge their responsibilities, and the restrictions for their being able to commute will not be lifted all at once.  It appears that the stimulus was probably the best course of action to take under the circumstances, and the presenters bestowed some credit on the administration for coming up with it so promptly.  I have often inveighed against Trump, so I must impartially record this praise of him from persons with greater financial expertise than me.

The afternoon I spent in company with close friends, a married couple whom I have known for years, and we walked together in Huntley Meadows Park.  I have not had many social occasions, as may be imagined, in recent weeks.  The hikes with the Vigorous Hikers have not really been group occasions; for the most part, we would meet at the beginning of the hikes, greet one another, and then go at our own paces.  Sometimes we would re-assemble for lunch, but more frequently we continued on our own.  I did join a couple of friends of mine for coffee at their place one morning last week, where we carefully maintained a distance of six feet from one another.  Today’s visit was more extensive.  My friends and I walked together several miles in Huntley Meadows Park, the largest county park in Fairfax County.  It is a preserved wetlands and appears to have a micro-climate of its own, since in some places the trees are unusually tall and slender, reminding me of the growth one sees in the Great Smokies.  Afterwards we returned to their house and ate ice cream together, and chatted about various matters.  They knew that I was keeping a journal and requested beforehand to bring them a copy.  They began to read it and commented on what they called my conversational style.  I hope that they are right.  I am not striving for any great standard of eloquence in these memoirs, but I like to think that my style is reasonably vigorous.

Some sort of justice may be done in the sorry case of the USS Roosevelt.  The Navy’s top leadership, after making an official inquiry of the case, has recommended the re-installation of Brett Crozier as its commander.  One thousand of its sailors, more than 20% total of the crew, have been stricken with the virus, thanks to the Navy’s dragging its feet in this matter as a result of Trump’s anxieties about the bad publicity Crozier’s pleas for treatment of the crew might have aroused.  However, James McPherson, the new acting Secretary of the Navy, knows very well on which side his bread is buttered.  He has launched a broader investigation, which will delay matters.  He says that he has some “unanswered questions” that the preliminary inquiry did not address.  One of these unanswered questions, no doubt, is whether or not Trump will erupt in fury at the notion of Crozier’s presence in the armed services again, where he can only be a walking reminder to all the world of Trump’s folly, vanity, arrogance, conceit, and pride.

A group of Orthodox Jews in New York City have participated in funeral procession for Rabbi Chaim Mertz, thereby incurring the resentment of Mayor De Blasio.  He has addressed a message to “the Jewish community” that participants in any other large gatherings will be subject to arrest.  This in turn has drawn ire from many of the New York Jews, who pointed out that they were no less disapproving than he was of the incident and that it was irrational to hold them responsible for the actions of one small splinter group.  But de Blasio’s response is understandable as well; about 2,500 people crowded to attend the funeral, completely disregarding the lockdown restrictions.   Thus in this case the fundamentalist Jews have shown themselves to be just as negligent as the fundamentalist Christians in other parts of the country. 

Carrie Symonds, Boris Johnson’s fiancée, has given birth to a healthy baby boy.  Symonds had contracted the virus, though in a relatively minor form; whereas Johnson, as previously noted, was incapacitated by the effects of the virus for some time.  But both are in good health now and their child is doing well.  I shall treasure, however, the remark that concluded the article reporting this propitious event:  “The precise number of how many children Johnson has, both inside and outside his previous marriages, is unknown.”

Today’s statistics as of 8:30 PM — # of cases worldwide: 3,217,325; # of deaths worldwide: 228,005; # of cases U.S.: 1,063,863; # of deaths U.S.: 61,635.  The total number of new cases is now highest in Brazil and Russia.  The U.S. has the greatest number of new deaths.  Our mortality rate is now about 5.7%. This rate is better than that of many other countries.  Some examples:  15.7% in the U.K., 13.5% in Italy, 14.4% in France, 12.1% in Sweden, 10.2% in Spain.  Even in Germany the mortality rate has gone up to 4%. 

The trillium hike – Memories of the trail – Illusions of permanence – Suicide of a health care professional – Plans for a virtual memorial service – Ron DeSantis’s gaffe – A presentation in costume – Evening statistics

Today I went on the Appalachian Trail from Manassas Gap off of Rte. 55 to the boundary of Sky Meadows and back – about 18 miles in all, with 3000 feet of elevation gain.  Technically speaking it was a group hike, but because the group was larger than ten people the hike organizer told everyone to go ahead as soon as each pulled up into the parking lot.  Since I arrived a few minutes early, I had the entire way to myself during the first part of the hike.  On the return I encountered some of the others, but they all paused for lunch while I pressed on forward, not wishing to ascend the last long climb immediately after eating.  This segment of the trail is the one noted for going through the area with the greatest concentration of trilliums, and they were in full bloom today, as well as numerous other wildflowers:  wild geranium, blue violets, yellow violets, starry chickweed, rue anemone, columbines, etc.  Redbud and dogwood trees were covered with blossoms.  In many places the hike was a feast for the ears as well as the eyes; the songbirds were caroling in all of their various calls.  I saw numerous cardinals and a pileated woodpecker as well.  This area is a popular place to visit and consequently I expected to encounter more people.  But it was a weekday, and the weather was cool and wet, which probably discouraged hikers.  There were occasional periods of rainfall that was fairly mild and gentle, although it did make the rocky sections slippery in places. 

I have often been on this segment of the AT and it has many memories for me.  There was the time in 2015, when the Appalachian Trail Conference met in Winchester and I led three of the hikes that year, all of them over 15 miles.  The summer was relatively mild, but that particular week the weather took a turn for the worst and became blisteringly hot.  I led one group from Rte. 522 to the parking area close to Trico Tower, and I remember halting the group when we were climbing from Manassas Gap after we had completed the steepest part of the ascent and having them take a drink of water to prevent them from getting dehydrated.  They all complied quite willingly.  It was on this hike that I met David Miller, who is well-known among through-hikers under the nickname of “Awol” and who has written a guidebook for the trail that is often used by them.  Towards the end of the hike we met two hikers coming in the opposite direction, and when they discovered who he was they were greatly excited, rather in the style of fans of a Hollywood celebrity.  He told me that he liked the way that I led the hike and gave me a copy of his book in appreciation; I have it still, and use it frequently.  It is an extremely valuable reference.

There is also the time that the Wanderbirds went on a memorial hike in honor of JM, a long-standing member of the group and a very remarkable man.  He lived to be 96 and retained health and vigor to the last.  On his 90^th birthday he gave himself what he referred to as a “birthday present”:  he went on a hike in the mountains that was nine miles long.  He did a hike of similar length on his 91^st birthday as well.  I cannot discover that he attempted any ambitious hikes after the age of 91.  Nonetheless he continued to get out of doors as much as possible, walking his dogs two or three miles each day.  It was only at the very end that his health failed.  He was stricken with influenza that developed complications.  When he was informed that it was serious he replied simply that he hoped it was mortal; he had no desire to linger on as an invalid for an indefinite number of months or years.  And he got his wish:  he passed away, gently and peaceably, after an illness of two weeks.  His was an old age to be envied.  The hike in his honor was one of the best-attended in the club’s history. 

These and other memories came to me as I was hiking today, and it was an odd sort of consolation for the recent ravages we have endured from the pandemic that the scene had altered so little over the years.  The impression of permanence, to be sure, is an illusion.  The Ice Age is not so very remote in the past, if one reckons by geological units of time, and we are still emerging from it.  Several thousand years ago, before the Ice Age began, the vegetation in this area was much more tropical.  It will doubtless alter again after the passing of hundreds and thousands of centuries.  But it will last my time.  A decade or two hence the trilliums and other blooms will flower at the beginning of May, the foliage will cast its shade, the birds will sing. 

While I have been taking my exercise and drinking in the beauties of spring, more tragedies have been occurring, this one among them:  Lorna Breen, an E.R. doctor in New York who is described as having been on the “front lines” in the battle against the virus for weeks on end, committed suicide during a visit to family in Charlottesville, Virginia.  I have no doubt that everyone in the hospitals must be undergoing a staggering amount of stress.  I noted earlier the story of Danielle Trezzi, the young Italian nurse who committed suicide under similar circumstances and for the same reasons.  One cannot blame them; one can only mourn for them.

As expected, it is not possible to have an in-person memorial service for FP (CC.’s husband).  His sons are compiling a slide show and will be adding text to it.  It should be available to friends next week.  How useless one feels under such circumstances!  You can’t really provide genuine consolation to anyone in mourning; one can only trust to the passage of time to dim their grief.  But to reach out to them in person sometimes a brief moment of solace to the mourners – one cannot expect anything more, of course.  CC says that it may be possible to have a memorial service some months later, when the lockdown is over. 

Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida, has referred to the state as “God’s waiting room.”  An avalanche of criticism has descended upon him for making this perfectly accurate statement:  Florida, after all, has more than its share of elderly retirees, many of whom are ill or disabled. 

Dan Ericksson and Artin Massihi, two doctors from Bakersfield, CA who own urgent care centers in the region, gave a press conference in which they released the conclusions they drew from the test data at their centers.  They claim that the virus is no more dangerous than influenza and that the death rates are greatly inflated.  Their data has not undergone any kind of review, and they have a vested interest in publicizing such conclusions; but apparently their presentation made an impression and various social platforms and media outlets have called them “brave” for presenting their skewed (and possibly fraudulent) data.  Strange as it appears, one of the factors that helped to make such an impact is that they were wearing their scrubs while they made the presentation.  I don’t understand why that circumstance would induce anyone look at them twice.  A broomstick can be dressed up too.

Today’s statistics as of 9:30 PM — # of cases worldwide: 3,137,761; # of deaths worldwide: 217,948; # of cases U.S.: 1,035,765; # of deaths U.S.: 59,266.  Brazil is now becoming an area of concern.  The number of cases is shooting up rapidly.  It is still below the median average rate for all of the countries in the world, but it has far and away the highest in South America.  About a quarter of its people live at the poverty level, so it has the potential of spreading rapidly.  The corruption that is so prevalent there will aggravate the problem. 

Morning statistics – Republican jitters – Rats affected by shortage of garbage – Boris Johnson – Las Vegas – Loss of a recycling center – Economic policy in the coming months – Death of FP – Tony Spell – Brian Kemp – Easing of restrictions – Belarus – Iran – Obliviousness of Trump – China and South Korea – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 11:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 3,017,770; # of deaths worldwide: 208,016; # of cases U.S.: 989,838; # of deaths U.S.: 55,497.  The incidence rate in Spain at this point is just under 0.05%, or one in two thousand per capita.  Virginia has endured a new high point in number of hospitalizations, but the number of new deaths is declining.  Governor Northam says that it will require 14 days of deceleration before beginning the first phase of re-opening businesses.  Non-essential businesses are closed until May 8^th at the earliest.

The Republicans are said to be apprehensive about the elections this coming November.  They must be aware that Trump has not exactly covered himself with laurels during the crisis, and they are worried not only that he will defeated but that his defeat will pull many of them down with them, thereby breaking their control of the Senate and the House.  They’ve been warned often enough about the dangers of associating themselves with Trump and never venturing to take a stand against his numerous follies, and they must bide the consequence of ignoring the warnings. 

Rats are being affected by the coronavirus, indirectly at least.  The shutting down of restaurants and the diminution of trash means that less food is available for them.  The various colonies of rats are fighting amongst themselves and there has been a spike in the cases of rat infanticide as well.  It is possible that they will start migrating to the vicinity of people’s homes as they follow the odor of food in kitchens. 

Boris Johnson has recovered from the virus.  He was inclined to dismiss warnings about the virus’s effects in earlier days, but he seems to have learned a few things from his experience.  He is now urging the U.K. to endure the lockdown restrictions a bit longer.  The British government is hoping to test 100,000 per day for the virus by April 30^th.  The U.K.’s death rate continues to be high and is currently at 13.5%.

Las Vegas is desperately trying to cling to its reputation as “Sin City.”  I have always described the city in my own mind as Malebolge, after the eighth circle of Dante’s Inferno, since its so-called pleasures have always seemed like penances to me.  Currently, however, it bears a closer resemblance to Limbo, with deserted streets and meager handfuls of pedestrians wandering about aimlessly.  The slot machines (which at this point are all electronic) have been shut off, casinos are shuttered, and the famous fountains of the Bellagio are not running.  Tourism, gambling, hospitality, and leisure account for one job of every three in Nevada, which means that the state’s economy is in even worse shape than that of its neighbors. 

On my excursions today I passed by the Fairfax City recycling center and discovered that it has been closed permanently.  The residents of the city may use one of the county facilities instead but this is a bit of an inconvenience.   The closed-up facility is less than a ten-minute drive from my house; the county facility is considerably further away.  However, it is a minor matter amidst the more pressing concerns about the virus and its aftermath.

I have signed up for a seminar on the Web that will discuss the financial situation at the current time and in the near future, when the stay-at-home restrictions will be lifted.  My guess is that economic activity will resume at full speed once the restrictions are lifted and that stocks will rise again.  Therefore the most prudent policy would appear to be to sit on one’s hands and not to sell out prematurely.  Of course, many people do not have the resources to do this, since a large number are coping with a loss of income while many businesses remain inoperative.  They will have to sell out when prices for their portfolio holdings are relatively small in order to keep their heads above water.  Thus the ones who are financially able to wait out the storm will profit at the expense of those who are not.  It all sounds a bit sordid, as so many economic scenarios do, and one hesitates to be in a position rather like profiteering, even by proxy.  But:

He who sins aught
Sins more than he ought.
But he who sins nought
Has much to be taught.
Beat or be beaten,
Eat or be eaten,
Be killed or kill,
Choose what you will.

CC’s husband passed away today.  He had been ill for a long time and of course the restrictions imposed by the virus made the last days of his caretaking more difficult, both physically and emotionally.  Many of us who would have attended the funeral will not be allowed to do so at this point; gatherings of more than ten people are still prohibited.

Tony Spell, as predicted, has ignored the restrictions of his house arrest and held a service packed with people, none of them wearing masks and none practicing social distancing – indeed, they could not have done so even if they had wished to, for there are hundreds of them packed together:  infinite squalor in in a little room. 

Brian Kemp has evidently decided that the lesser of two evils is to ignore the public disavowal he received from the President and to go ahead with the lifting of restrictions in the state of Georgia as originally planned rather than make a sorry spectacle of himself by canceling his schedule after Trump’s tantrum.  I rather wonder that he did not retort on the President with a tu quoque and point out that it was not so very long ago that Trump was urging governors to accelerate the lifting of the stay-at-home orders and even cheering on protestors in other states.  I suppose he wearily concluded that any self-justification would be so much wasted effort.  Indeed, what effect would such an attempt have?  No one’s opinion of Trump would be affected in the least.  The followers of his personality cult will never be persuaded that this demigod of theirs can err and the rest of the nation cannot detest him more thoroughly than they do now.

In general the easement of restrictions is beginning, both in some of the states in the U.S. and in some of the European nations.  Even in Spain children are able to play in the streets and the playgrounds.  Spain now has over 23,000 deaths due to the virus officially, but real number is probably higher; their figure counts only those who have been tested.  Many have died who may have caught the virus without being aware of it.  Still, the hope there is that the worst is over.  The situation is similar in Italy.  About twenty U.S. states are entering the first phase of lifting the lockdown.  Virginia is still holding fast to its June 10^th date for the end of the stay-at-home order. 

Belarus continues its policy of no lockdowns.  The official tally at this point is 11,289 cases and 75 deaths, but observers say that the figures may be as much as four or five times that amount.  The Ukraine, with four times as many people, has only 9,009 cases. Religious masses, soccer games, parades, boxing matches, etc., are all going on usual. But some of the people residing in that country, at least, do not seem to be placing much stock in their leader’s reassurances.  The stadiums are no longer full, and many do not venture out in public without face masks.  Nonetheless, Lukashenko insists that the virus is a “mass psychosis” and orders everything to go on as usual.  One must say that the man practices what he preaches.  On Sunday Orthodox believers attended Easter services, and he himself participated along with his 15-year old son.

In Iran over 700 people have died from ingesting methanol, erroneously believing that it could cure the virus.  Mosques remain closed there and the iftar meals – the meals after sunset during Ramadan, which under normal circumstance involve large groups of friends and relatives – are limited to immediate family members.  Shops have re-opened there, but many officials fear a fresh outbreak and believe that the lifting of the lockdown has been premature.

“There has been so much unnecessary death in this country. It could have been stopped and it could have been stopped short, but somebody a long time ago, it seems, decided not to do it that way. And the whole world is suffering because of it.”  The spokesman is none other than – Donald Trump!  And he seriously hasn’t a clue that the “somebody” he refers to might be himself.

China claims that the number of active cases is now 723.  That would be good news if so; but as always, their data must be taken with caveats.  South Korea seems to be controlling the virus outbreak by now.  It has over 10,000 cases total and of these, at least 8,000 have recovered.  The death count from the virus is only 243 – impressive for a nation with over 51 million in population.  The death rate from the virus in the U.S is more than 34 times higher. 

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 3,064,142; # of deaths worldwide: 211,533; # of cases U.S.: 1,010,356; # of deaths U.S.: 56,797. Some sad milestones passed today:  over three million cases total and over one million of them in the U.S. 

Morning statistics – Shopping at a popular grocery chain – Kim Jong-un – Tony Spell above the law – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 2,938,729; # of deaths worldwide: 203,798; # of cases U.S.: 960,896; # of deaths U.S.: 54,265.  The rate of acceleration in the incidence both of new cases and of deaths appears to be slowing down.  China claims now to have only about 800 active cases remaining.

Today I shopped at Trader Joe’s.  I’ve been avoiding this store for some time.  It is popular and whenever I have passed it during walks in the area I have seen long lines stretching out onto the sidewalk, for it is currently very careful about the number of shoppers who can occupy it at one time.  However, I discovered that the first hour of the morning that it is open is available to seniors only, so I tried it out.  As with Safeway, it is relying on the honor system:  some of the customers could by no stretch of the imagination be over 60 years old.  But in general the experience was less disagreeable than I anticipated.  Indeed it was surprisingly comfortable, for generally in the past it can get quite crowded and there is usually a bit of a wait in the lines for the cashiers.  In the current setup I was able to select what I needed and then go directly to one of the cashiers without waiting at all.  The store had most of the items I needed.  However, there was one section that was devoted to baking needs, whose shelves were completely empty.

There is still no definite word on the status of Kim Jong-un.  He may be dead; he may be in the throes of the coronavirus; he may be recuperating at a resort town – no one knows.  Trump has said that the reports about Kim Jong-un’s illness are “fake news,” which is his favorite expression for any news item that he finds potentially inconvenient or embarrassing.  Why he feels that he has a vested interest in Kim Jong-un’s continuing existence, is something of a mystery.  But then everything about Trump is an enigma – or perhaps there really is no enigma at all, except to those who attempt to find some meaning in it.

Tony Spell, the Louisiana pastor who obstinately defies the mandate against large gatherings, has been placed under house arrest.  He has had a monitor placed on his ankle.  But I’m sure house arrest means nothing to him.  For one thing, his church is a mere fifty yards from his house.  A good long sentence in prison alongside some violent felons perhaps might chastise him effectively, but that is precisely what the state of Louisiana refuses to do.

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 2,994,677; # of deaths worldwide: 206,988; # of cases U.S.: 987,160; # of deaths U.S.: 55,413. 

Morning statistics – Alexandria – Is Kim Jong-un still alive? – Symptoms of the virus – Florida beaches – A solicitous father – Local elections postponed for two weeks – Death of a phlebotomist – The race against time to transport a son to see his father’s last days – Reminiscence of my father’s passing – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 7:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 2,846,467; # of deaths worldwide: 197,855; # of cases U.S.: 925,758; # of deaths U.S.: 52,217. 

I went to Alexandria today.  It has been months since I’ve last seen it.  The riverbank has been built up to an astonishing degree.  The residences extend nearly all the way to the Woodrow Wilson Bridge.  Several people were out but in general were behaving well with respect to the social distancing guidelines.  The Farmers’ Market was open, to my surprise.  It was modified from the usual setup, of course.  In order to make purchases, customers had to do so in advance online, and then go to the market itself to pick up their orders.

I can’t help wondering what will become of areas such as Alexandria.  There are numerous river towns that have built up charming clusters of small independent shops and restaurants, interspersed with walkways that are often decorated with hanging baskets of flowers.  Even after the restrictions imposed by the virus are lifted, it seems to me that people’s shopping habits will alter.  Already ordering online has become more and more common, and small independent shops are less busy than they were in earlier days.  I earnestly hope I am wrong, but I can’t help thinking that the only stores that will survive are the ones that belong to large chains that have the resources to tide their outlets over during slack periods.

Rumors continue to fly about the health of Kim Jong-un.  April 25^th is the celebration of the birth of the nation’s revolutionary army, but he was not present at any of the ceremonies.  His last public appearance was on April11th – two weeks ago.  There is speculation that he has undergone heart surgery.  China has sent a delegation, with some medical experts in attendance, to try to find out more.  Kim Jong-un has no designated heir, and his death could trigger a major upheaval in the country.  China has ample reason to value stability in its neighbor:  a civil war there could end up in driving millions of refugees across the border, most of them malnourished and in poor health.  (NOTE:  an update from later in the day – the report now is that Kim’s surgery was performed as an emergency procedure after he had a heart attack, that the surgery was botched, and that his hopes of recovery are poor.  It is even possible that he is dead by now.)

More symptoms have been listed to determine whether or not one has the virus.  Previously the only ones agreed upon were shortness of breath, fatigue, a dry cough, and fever.  Now chills, muscle pain, headache, sore throat, and new loss of taste or smell have been added to the criteria.  Even those who have recovered have painful stories to tell.  One has reported that she basically had to learn again how to walk; another that he had train himself to breath normally.  Others have been more fortunate, escaping with mild symptoms similar to those of the flu for two weeks or so. 

More beaches are opening in Florida.  This measure may be less risky than previously thought.  Studies have suggested that the virus is caught from being indoors with other people and that it is transmitted much less readily outdoors.  But the studies are tentative and even their authors stress that it would be premature to rely on them just yet.

A strange variant of the story of Lot and his daughters is being acted out on the Internet.  One father was the sole caregiver of his daughter after his wife died in labor.  When she became an adult she moved out to live with her boyfriend, but this relationship floundered and she returned to her father.  She then discovered that she was pregnant.  Three months after her pregnancy was diagnosed, she fell into melancholy and took to spending a great deal of time alone in her room, prompting her father to install a video surveillance camera.  Surely, one would think, talking to her directly would have been a more effective way of dealing with the issue, to say nothing of its being less costly.  However, the camera was installed, and presently he discovered that she was masturbating a great deal.  The concern that her sexual needs were not being met, so he claims, prompted him to initiate a relationship with her that greatly exceeds the limits customarily observed between parent and child.  She complied, apparently quite willingly, and she has even expressed her wish to have a second child with him after she has delivered the first.  Child abuse of this nature is not exactly a novelty, of course; what makes this particular instance odd is that the father had no hesitation in describing it quite openly on the Reddit news aggregation.  Even if that unfortunate young woman is ever to disentangle herself from this obscene predator, she will probably be mentally unhinged for years to come.  There seems to be no opportunity of removing her from his clutches, since he is hiding under a pseudonym.  One can only hope that sooner or later his dissolute habits catch up with him.  Where is the coronavirus when you truly need it?

Local elections have been moved, but not to November as originally suggested.  The election date has been changed from May 5^th to May 19^th, and votes already entered by absentee ballot remain valid.  Governor Northam has urged everyone to use absentee balloting. 

Deborah Gatewood, a phlebotomist at Beaumont Hospital in Detroit, displayed symptoms of the virus on March 18^th.  During the space of five days, as her symptoms were becoming more severe, she attempted four times to get tested for the virus but was denied each time.  On March 27^th she was discovered by her daughter, barely conscious.  Gatewood’s daughter and son-in-law drove her to a hospital, having the sense to select one that was more responsive.  But it was too late.  When she was checked in, she already had a fever of 106 degrees.  Even though she was tended with care and intubated for two weeks, her kidneys began to fail.  She died on April 20^th.  Gatewood had worked at Beaumont for 31 years, but she could not prevail on them to allow her to be tested, although symptoms were becoming increasingly obvious with each successive visit.  If this is how the hospital treats its long-term employees when they fall ill, one can imagine what their reception of their other patients must be like.  But the hospital is probably typical of the Detroit hospitals at large.  I hope and trust that when the ravages of the virus are over, people will flee in droves from this disintegrating city.

I have had more news from CC.  Her husband’s end is soon approaching.  It is always sad to see a loved one slowly dying before your eyes, but in this case the restrictions imposed by the virus make matters even worse.  One son is now racing up to Brooklyn to bring the other son back with him.  Pray Heaven that they will be back in time to see his last moments. 

When my father died I was with friends in central Virginia, and my brother, who was visiting my parents at the time, bore the brunt of the burden.  It was he who checked my father into the hospice and when I called to ask whether I should hasten back, he said that there was nothing I could do and that I might as well adhere to my original schedule and stay where I was.  Indeed, had I driven back at the utmost speed I would have been too late; my father died the day after he was checked into the hospice.  So I was spared the sight of my father’s dying before my eyes and it is doubtful that I could have offered any comfort had I been present – but I regret all the same that my brother had to deal on his own with contacting the funeral home and making the last arrangements. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 2,917,552; # of deaths worldwide: 203,119; # of cases U.S.: 959,143; # of deaths U.S.: 54,228.  The U.S. is now accounting about one-third of the virus cases and one-quarter of the deaths.  The incidence rate has shot ahead those of France and the U.K.  Virginia has had 772 new cases today, the highest increase yet.  The death toll is nearly 6,000 in New Jersey and nearly 22,000 in New York.

Morning statistics – An overdose of detective fiction of the “noir” school – Modern veneration for Eros – How biographies become fiction – Vincent Van Gogh, the film and the reality – Examples of Aphrodite with her attribute of laughter – Time to get out of the house – The middle of spring – The bio-diversity of Appalachia – My aunt in Manhattan – Disinfectant proposed as a cure for COVID-19 – Soda bread – Closure of White Mountain National Forest – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 2,746,954; # of deaths worldwide: 191,899; # of cases U.S.: 886,709; # of deaths U.S.: 50,243.  The number of cases in Virginia is now nearly 11,000.  Non-essential surgeries have been banned in Virginia for over a month; the ban has been extended for another week. 

On account of various social activities being brought to a standstill, I have more time on my hands than usual and I have putting it to use by perusing various examples of modern fiction, such as the works of – but I will be charitable and conceal the names of the authors.  We criticize the Victorians for their over-emphasis of the type of love known as storge (affection, familial love, or companionship among those who have been thrown together by chance) but readers in future generations might find our veneration of Eros equally risible.  This trend is especially prevalent in detective fiction.  The protagonist detective may be happily married or he may be single, but in all cases he is a stallion and the author is continually interrupting the story with episodes designed to show us that, however mean and gritty life is on the streets, every moment in the bedroom is a foretaste of Paradise.  No instances of impotence, no premature ejaculation, no halitosis, no minor discomforts even, and (above all) no failure to stimulate orgasm in his sexual partner.  The female detective, similarly, is the embodiment of allure to every male she encounters, even the criminals whom she is pursuing.  If she does not receive a proposition from one of the good guys or is not the object of attempted rape every alternate chapter, she’s failed.

Even in works that purport to be biographies we see the same craze.  Some months ago I watched a film that professed to be a narrative of the last year of the life of Vincent Van Gogh.  I say “professed” because the account given in the film was very different from the reality.  Van Gogh was not, in life, noted for his success with women.  His first proposal of marriage was to the daughter of his landlady, who turned him down because she was secretly engaged to someone else.  He next focused his attentions on his cousin, who was a widow with a child, and seven years his senior.  Her circumstances made it unlikely that she would have much opportunity of remarrying, but all the same she was not desperate enough to take him on.  When he proposed to her she exclaimed, “No, never!” and when he persisted in his pursuit of her she complained to her father in order to get him to stop stalking her.  After that episode he carried on a relationship with a prostitute that does not seem to have brought much satisfaction to either of them.  It had come to an end well before he moved to Arles.  None of this comes through in the film.  Instead, every woman he meets (including his own sister-in-law and the thirteen-year old daughter of the couple running the inn) is eager to jump his bones.  The idea that someone can be a great artist without necessarily being a great lover has no place in the contemporary movie-makers’ scheme of things.  To be sure, the movie was French; but that, while it may be an explanation, is not an excuse for such a grotesque distortion of the truth.

The ancient Greeks would surely be puzzled by our obsession over erotic love and, above all, the deadly earnestness with which we treat it.  They may have deified it, but they explicitly described Aphrodite as “laughter-loving.”

For it is a curious circumstance that despite all of the breathless descriptions of sexual congress in these volumes, no one appears to be enjoying himself very much.  The authors wish to assure us that they are, no doubt.  They tell us so on every page, almost in every sentence.  The ecstasies provided by these encounters are loaded with superlatives.  They doubtless take place in lofty canopied beds upon bedsheets woven of the finest Egyptian cotton, without wrinkle or crease.  Nonetheless, instead of the palpitating anticipation that the authors so evidently wish to inspire, I find myself exclaiming, “But . . . but . . . I am bored!”  And when I read yet again about how the lovely object of desire possesses the allurements of Hera, Athena, and Aphrodite all rolled up into one, thereby rendering the Judgment of Paris completely superfluous, a suspicion enters my mind, swift and uncontrollable as a minnow darting through the current of a woodland stream, whether there may not be an element of wish-fulfillment involved.  Are you not aware, I mentally address the author, that that commonplace young woman, to whom you could assign no role more significant than that of the fifth murder victim (or is it the eleventh? – I lose track) could, under certain circumstances, provide the excitement and gratification ordinarily associated with an evening in the company of Cleopatra? – just as yonder insignificant-looking plant, when treated with the appropriate care and attentiveness, can be persuaded to yield the loveliest of blossoms?  Again – although here I cannot speak from personal experience – is it not conceivable that the feisty spirited independent gun-slinging heroine might, under certain circumstances, be persuaded to accept without protest the caresses of a man who lacks the physique of a WWE wrestler?  What has become, I am driven to ask, of the healthy, hearty eroticism that enabled Shakespeare to address impassioned sonnets to a woman whose beauty is nothing like the sun and whose breath is far inferior to that of the scent of perfume?  What has become of the cheerful indecency of Richard Sheridan explaining the germination of flowers to his attentive pupil?

In the close covert of a grove
By nature formed for scenes of love,
Said Susan in a lucky hour:
“Observe yon sweet geranium flower.
How straight upon its stalk it stands,
And tempts our violating hands,
Whilst the soft bud, as yet unspread,
Hangs down its pale declining head.
Yet soon as it is ripe to blow,
The stems shall rise, the head shall glow.”
“Nature,” said I, “my lovely Sue,
To all her followers lends a clue.
Her simple laws themselves explain
As links of one continued chain;
For her the mysteries of creation
Are but the works of generation.
Yon blushing, strong, triumphant flower
Is in the crisis of its power:
But short, alas, its vigorous reign;
He sheds his seed, and drops again.
The bud that hangs in pale decay
Feels not, as yet, the plastic ray.
Tomorrow’s sun shall bid him rise,
Then, too, he sheds his seed, and dies.
But words, my love, are vain and weak;
For proof, let bright example speak.”
Then straight before the wondering maid
The tree of life I gently laid.
“Observe, sweet Sue, his drooping head,
How pale, how languid, and how dead.
Yet let the sun of thy bright eyes
Shine but a moment, it shall rise.
Let but the dew of thy soft hand
Refresh the stem, it straight shall stand.
Already, see, it swells, it grows,
Its head is redder than the rose,
Its shriveled fruit, of dusky hue,
Now glows—a present fit for Sue.
The balm of life each artery fills,
And in o’erflowing drops distils.”
“Oh, me!” cried Susan, “When is this?
What strange tumultuous throbs of bliss!
Sure, never mortal till this hour
Felt such emotion at a flower!
Oh, serpent, cunning to deceive,
Sure ’tis this tree that tempted Eve.
The crimson apples hang so fair
Alas! what woman could forbear?”
“Well hast thou guessed, my love,” I cried,
“It is the tree by which she died –
The tree which could alone content her.
All nature, Susan, seeks the centre.
Yet let us still poor Eve forgive,
It’s the tree by which we live.
For lovely women still it grows,
And in the centre only blows.
But chief for thee it spreads its charms,
For paradise is in thy arms …”
I ceased, for nature kindly here
Began to whisper in her ear,
And lovely Sue lay softly panting
While the geranium tree was planting,
’Til in the heat of amorous strife
She burst the mellow tree of life.
“Oh, heaven!” cried Susan with a sigh,
“The hour we taste – we surely die.
Strange raptures seize my fainting frame,
And all my body glows with flame.
Yet let me snatch one parting kiss
To tell my love I die with bliss –
That pleased thy Susan yields her breath;
Oh, who would live, if this be death?”

Which is a great deal more satisfying to read than the endless perorations about the physical perfections and the sexual athletics of the modern-day partners of these novels’ protagonists.

All of the above is quite a departure from concerns about the coronavirus and the impact it has been having on daily affairs.  I have been sitting indoors too much.  I must go outside.

Later . . .

I went out on a 9-mile loop, feeling fairly certain that I would not encounter many people.  The weather was cool and damp, continually threatening to rain.  My expectations were answered:  for the most part, there were few pedestrians.  And yet the walk was quite pleasurable on the whole.  The air was fresh and invigorating, as it often is after a rainfall, and many of the gardens were full of azaleas, whose colors were at the peak of their saturation.  In particular I was pleased to see many clusters of pinxter azaleas, with their distinctive long stamens and narrow white petals edged with pink.  The only disagreeable part occurred during a half-mile stretch through a type of area more common in California than here:  a wealthy neighborhood containing large and handsome houses with extensive parcels of land attached to each, but which for some mysterious reason lacks the resources for sidewalks or even roadside shoulders, thereby forcing pedestrians to walk directly on the asphalt.  Probably the current circumstances make it less unpleasant than it ordinarily would be, on account of the diminished volume of automobile traffic.  Nonetheless I hastened through it as quickly as I could and I was very glad when it ended.  But in general I felt refreshed and re-energized, despite the over-hanging clouds and the dullness of the sky.  Spring is advancing; the leaves of the trees are losing that translucence they display upon their first appearance of the season; wildflowers bestrew the grass wherever they are permitted to grow.  One of the advantages of getting out of doors frequently is that one is continually reminded of the activity among flora and fauna that functions independently of mankind.  Such non-human activity is perhaps especially apparent in the Appalachian forest land and piedmont, which is one of the most bio-diverse areas on the planet.  It is indeed somewhat surprising that so little of this luxuriant ecoregion is reflected on our own fiction – but I must not digress upon modern American fiction again.

I spoke with my aunt after I returned.  She is managing, as I think, remarkably well.  She is living on her own and will be 90 in July, but she is coping by getting her groceries delivered to her and is still preparing her own meals.  She tells me that my cousin was somewhat more ill than my conversation with him led me to believe.  At one point he was worried enough to consider entering a hospital, but happily that proved not to be necessary.

Today Trump advocated either injecting or ingesting disinfectant as a preventative against the virus, much to the consternation of medical experts or indeed of anyone who is familiar with basic chemistry.  Lysol was quick to follow-up with a public announcement not to use its product either internally or externally.  Both medical experts and members of Congress weighed in against this recklessly irresponsible advice.  But the best response perhaps was Hillary Clinton’s:  “Please don’t poison yourself because Donald Trump thinks it could be a good idea.”

I made soda bread today.  It doesn’t have the same texture as bread made with yeast, of course, but it doesn’t disintegrate in my hands the way the peanut butter bread did when I tried out that recipe earlier.  And its flavor is quite good.  I haven’t given up on the starter, though.  It does seem to be bubbling much than it did earlier.  And I will be on the lookout for yeast in the stores as well.  Sooner or later it has to turn up.

New Hampshire has closed the entirety of White Mountain National Forest.  Several miles of the Appalachian Trail go through there.  This is bad news for through-hikers.  Since most of them are “Nobo” – northbound, starting from Springer Mountain and ending at Mt. Katahdin – they probably will not be reaching that area for another two months.  By that time it may re-open.  In any case, it’s a severe blow to the local hikers.

Today’s statistics as of 10:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 2,830,051; # of deaths worldwide: 197,245; # of cases U.S.: 925,038; # of deaths U.S.: 52,185.

Morning statistics – Sending in the ballot – Discussions with neighbors – Fetching a son from New York to be present for his father’s last days – Elizabeth Warren – COVID-19 in California – Fox News makes headlines on its own account – Jim Bakker – How religion has suffered from the influx of emotionalism – Brian Kemp let down by Trump at the last minute – Ramadan – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 7:30 AM — # of cases worldwide: 2,656,671; # of deaths worldwide: 185,192; # of cases U.S.: 849,092; # of deaths U.S.: 47,681. 

The local elections will be held at the originally scheduled dates, so I sent in my absentee ballot.

The weather was cloudy and threatening to rain for most of the early afternoon, so not many people were out today.  But I chatted briefly with a few neighbors who were working in their gardens.  One gave some strands of lemon balm, which adds a pleasant flavoring to drinks.  We exchanged information about the best times to go to various grocery stores in the area.  She told me that Trader Joe’s has a seniors-only hour at 8:00-9:00, so I will try shopping there the next time I need to pick up groceries.  We joined in lamenting that so many farmers are being forced to throw away food at the same time that numerous others are searching everywhere to purchase it. 

I heard from CC.  Her husband FP is in the hospice.  The estimate is that the end will come in 1-3 weeks.  One son is in the area; he will drive up to New York to fetch his brother, who will then reside in the basement for a week in order to quarantine himself.  Then he will be allowed to approach his father, provided he wears a mask and gloves, and does not come too close.  At this point all that the family can do is to hope that FP will last beyond that first week so that he can bid farewell to his son.  What a stressful time this must be for them!  The situation would have been difficult enough during normal times, but the restrictions imposed by the virus make it positively nightmarish.

Don Reed, the eldest brother of Elizabeth Warren, has passed away from the coronavirus.  Warren was undeniably the most able of the candidates for president running during the Democratic primary, a much more vital personality and vigorous intelligence than either Biden or Sanders.  Alas, she is also very far to the left – too far to be accepted by the mainstream.  Still it can hardly be doubted that if she had been President at this time instead of Trump, the national response to the crisis, both on the medical and economic fronts, would have been much less chaotic than it is now.  Her brother was 86 and his death cannot be called a tragedy, but the loss of any sibling must be felt by the survivors.  It is characteristic of Warren that during this private sorrow she took the time publicly to thank the medical care professionals who looked after Reed during his last days. 

The contagion rate of the virus has slowed down in areas, but unfortunately it is still raging in California.  The state experienced 117 new deaths in the past 24 hours, the highest death count in a single day since it began tracking deaths.  The rate of new cases has slowed down in Santa Clara County, in the Bay area, but Los Angeles County continues to see an accelerating rate in new cases and one of the highest death rates from the disease in the nation.  My brother lives in that city; he is active and healthy, with no underlying conditions, but his residence in such a hot spot is a source of worry.

Fox News is making headlines on its own account, probably quite unintentionally.  CNN anchors Brooke Baldwin and Chris Cuomo and reporter Richard Quest have all come down with the virus.  In a touching demonstration of sympathy for her fellow-journalists, Laura Ingraham accused them of setting up a “faux reality show.”  Several viewers tweeted their dismay afterwards, and even some of her co-workers were appalled.  Seth McFarlane described her remark as “insane” and added, “I really cannot fathom that we produce content for the same corporation.”  It may be so, but Ingraham’s heartless, brainless display of callousness is thoroughly in line with the organization’s constant attempts to downplay the effects of the virus and my guess is that Fox will champion Ingraham over McFarlane.  Fox News in general has been assiduous in promoting conspiracy theories of all varieties ever since Trump assumed office, thus bearing out the dictum that it is much less humiliating to believe oneself persecuted than insignificant.

I have already referred to Tony Spell’s effrontery in demanding that his followers donate their stimulus checks to him, but it pales in comparison to the rapacity of televangelist Jim Bakker.  He attempted to sell a silver solution that he claimed as a cure for the virus when it was nothing but quack medicine; and when he was deluged with lawsuits and cut off by his credit card companies in consequence, he has pleaded for donations and said that his massive network will be totally broke if he does not receive financial support from his followers.  That is to say, when he failed to deprive them of money by fraud, he is now reaching out to them for charity – and from people who are much less wealthy than he is.  He is 80 years old and might surely be content with the worldly goods he has already acquired, but he will continue to grasp and claw and gorge on every dollar that has a chance of coming into his hands and, in all probability, with his last audible breath will cry out for “More! More!” of the gold that provides such solace to his soul.  Christ might have said that one cannot serve both God and Mammon, but Bakker, determined sort that he is, has certainly given it the good old college try.

The Romantic movement of the early 19^th century ushered in “the great wallow of emotion which, though often criticized, has lasted ever since.”  C. S. Lewis, whom I have quoted, is surely correct in stigmatizing it as a retrograde development, but I believe that religion has been one of its greatest sufferers.  The American evangelist movement is proof of it.  In this crisis its leaders have shown themselves utterly without scruple, impenetrable in their willful ignorance, unabashed in their greed, never caring how their conduct might endanger the lives of their congregations or of their neighbors at large.  And their followers are no better:  not one voice has been lifted in protest at such disgraceful exhibitions and they are even ready, as is the case of the parents of the unfortunate students of Liberty College, to disregard the health and safety of their own children. 

Brian Kemp, the governor of Georgia, has been promoting an aggressive plan to re-open the state as swiftly as possible, despite the advice of the medical experts.  For a long time he thought that he would be pleasing Trump by doing so.  He had ample reason for this supposition; for Trump has sent out numerous words to encouragement to protestors in other states to defy the stay-at-home orders issued by their governors.  But last night Trump has completely reversed his position, just a few hours after he privately expressed support of Kemp’s plan, he has publicly announced that the plan is too reckless.  So now Kemp either has to go through with the plan, knowing all the while that he will receive no support from the White House if any mishap occurs (such as, for example, hospitals so crowded with patients that it will be necessary set up field hospitals in public parks [as in New York], morgues crammed so much with bodies that it will be necessary to resort to ice rinks for the backlog [as in Spain], several thousand additional deaths, and other trifling inconveniences of that kind) – will he, I say, be forced to go forward with his plan on his own or does he undo the machinery he’s set in motion?  The first phase is scheduled to go into effect tomorrow, so he doesn’t have much time to make up his mind.  It’s his own fault.  He should have taken a lesson from the woman who nearly lost her life after swallowing chloroquine when Trump mistakenly promoted it as a cure for the virus.  After that experience she gave the following advice to the public:  “Don’t believe anything that the president says.”

Ramadan begins today and will last until May 23^rd.  It is a holiday based on a lunar calendar and for that reason is continually shifting every year through different seasons.  For Muslims in the Northern hemisphere, the timing of the holiday this year is nearly the worst possible.  Observance of the holiday involves a sunrise-to-sunset fast every day for a month, and at this time of year the hours of daylight are approaching the maximum.  In Washington the period of fasting will be 15-16 hours per day.  Those relying on restaurants for food delivery may run into difficulties; the hours available for delivery will be sharply curtailed.  Mosques are closed – the Muslim countries in general have been behaving very sensibly about prohibiting large assemblages of people, even for religious purposes – and the appropriate prayers will have to be conducted at private homes.  Religious visits to Mecca and Medina have been suspended, even though under normal circumstances the influx of visitors during Ramadan is an important part of Saudi Arabia’s tourism industry.  Traditionally Muslims gather in large get-togethers during the meals after sundown, as the Jews do for Passover, but this year they will have to confine their celebrations to their individual homes.   I am not religious myself, and of course even if I were I would not be participating in either Easter or Ramadan, but I am always sorry to hear of circumstances that deprive people of innocent enjoyment and of the opportunity to worship in their own way. 

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 2,717,934; # of deaths worldwide: 190,630; # of cases U.S.: 880,204; # of deaths U.S.: 49,845.  As noted earlier, our country normally loses about 55,000 people per year to influenza.  The number of people killed by the virus is quickly approaching this amount and it has been active here for only three months. 

Morning statistics – Actions of Fox News contradict its words – Face masks required in some states – A meager penalty for Tony Spell – Spelling as a creative art form – The parable of the talents – A friend’s experiences in flying – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 2,580,630; # of deaths worldwide: 179,063; # of cases U.S.: 819,321; # of deaths U.S.: 45,355.  The countries with the highest death rates per capita are now, in descending order, Belgium, Spain, Italy, France, U.K., Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, Ireland, and the U.S.  Sweden’s mortality rate is climbing steadily upwards, which may cause some of its officials to reconsider its somewhat lax policy towards containment of the virus. 

Fox News, which has consistently downplayed the effects of the virus and has portrayed the reports about it from other news networks as part of a conspiracy to denigrate Trump, has been revealed not to believe a word of what it was claiming.  In a memo to the Fox News staff, the CEO reduced the “staff footprint” at the New York headquarters and other bureaus, urging employees to telecommute instead.  Imaginary as they profess to believe the virus to be, they nonetheless go to considerable lengths to take precautions against it for their own employees.  I am bound to say that Fox News has been putting itself to a needless trouble in trying to promote their theories.  There is no need for a “conspiracy” to circulate the notion that Trump is arbitrary, peevish, irritable, capricious, erratic, fickle, ill-tempered, ill-informed, ill-natured, and ill-bred; his actions alone are sufficient for this purpose.

The following states require wearing a face mask when going out in public:  Connecticut, Hawaii, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island.  It is not clear whether this extends to various outdoor recreational activities such as jogging, where a face mask used to prevent the spread of micro-particles can defeat its own ends.  Intense exercise causes people to pant heavily, and if they are wearing masks they will constantly be infusing these with droplets from the nose and mouth.  For my own part, I wear a mask when strolling on the streets and entering any store or public building, but I do not wear one while hiking. 

At long last Tony Spell, the Louisiana pastor who has constantly defied the stay-at-home order to perform massive services in his church, has been arrested.  But again, his punishment was meted out in such a half-hearted manner as to deprive it of all of its sting.  A protestor was demonstrating against his repeated violations of the stay-at-home order when he happened to be driving a church bus.  Spell attempted to frighten the protestor by driving straight at him and stopping just five feet away.  Spell was charged with aggravated assault.  But he paid a $5000 bond and was released the same day.  So essentially he received no punishment at all.   Five thousand dollars is small change to Tony Spell, who rakes in millions from his duped supporters.  Since the said supporters came out in numbers to cheer him when he walked away from prison, there is no reason to pity them for yielding for his attempt to deprive them of their stimulus checks.  Let them by impoverished by this man, if that’s what they want; they deserve no better.

Numerous photos of the protestors coming out to march against the lockdowns in the various states are being posted all over the Internet.  The home-made signs that many of them display are somewhat curious:  “athletits” for “athletes”; “peaple” for “people”;  “coice” for “choice”.  We seem to be reverting to the literacy level of the generation just before George Eliot’s, as she describes in The Mill on the Floss: “a generation with whom spelling was a matter of private judgment.” 

Our President has recently displayed a greater knowledge of theological matters than I had given him credit for, or at the very least a degree of cognizance of certain passages from the New Testament.  Recently some relief was distributed to members of the restaurant industry.  The big chains swallowed up the lion’s share of it, with the swiftness and rapacity of cormorants, while the small independent restaurant owners, who needed it most, had to content themselves with crumbs from the table.  Trump has thus provided the nation with a practical exposition of the parable of the talents (Matthew, 25:14-30), in which we learn that the rich shall have more.

MF was compelled to take a flight to Miami to help her daughter pack and move her furniture back to Maryland.  The flight was almost empty.  And she was fortunate to obtain one; most flights have been canceled.  She took photos of the airport while she was waiting for the flight; it was nearly deserted. 

Today’s statistics as of 10:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 2,637,673; # of deaths worldwide: 184,217; # of cases U.S.: 848,994; # of deaths U.S.: 47,676.  China’s official number of cases still active has sunk below 1,000.