Author: betula54

COVID waning in the public’s attention – Potential upsurge this coming winter – A Proud Boys member pleads guilty – Evening statistics

COVID has been mentioned with decreasing frequency in this journal, reflecting its status in the news headlines at large.  The President has already declared that the pandemic is over; the CDC, while not going so far as to endorse this, is basically behaving as if special measures are no longer needed.  It will no longer issue daily updates of new COVID cases and deaths; on October 20^th it will switch to issuing to weekly updates instead.  Many individual states and, for that matter, individual counties, have been providing weekly rather than daily updates for some time. 

But aren’t we being just a trifle over-optimistic?  Winter will be coming in a couple of months, and during the previous two winters both case incidence and mortality rates went up dramatically.  COVID cases are rising on the other side of the Atlantic even now.  In the U.K., the number of COVID cases this week went up nearly 11% over the number of cases during the preceding week.  The newer variants up to this point have been less deadly than their predecessors, but they still have a higher mortality rate than that of influenza.  The influx of cold weather and reduced outdoor activity has the potential of generating a new upsurge of deaths.  I would be delighted to be proved wrong.

 Jeremy Bertino, a North Carolina leader of the Proud Boys, is now the first member of that group to plead guilty to seditious conspiracy for attacking the Capitol.  Bertino actually was not present at that event, having been wounded during a previous rally (a violent one, naturally) nearly a month earlier, but he helped to orchestrate the event and recruited others to participate.  His sentencing date has not been set.  His next hearing is scheduled for February, 2023, and during the interim he will not be permitted to hold a passport or have access to a firearm.  Whether this measure will be effectively carried out remains to be seen.  When Enrique Tarrio, for whom Bertino acted as lieutenant, was arrested in March 2021, a search conducted of Bertino’s house discovered six firearms, including an AR-15 rifle with a scope, and more than 3,000 rounds of ammunition, despite the fact that. Bertino had previously been convicted of a felony and was (supposedly) not allowed to own a firearm even then.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 625,278,152; # of deaths worldwide: 6,556,879; # of cases U.S.: 98,465,522; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,087,274.  In two weeks it will be a waste of effort to track statistics on a daily basis – see above.

South Run and Lake Mercer – Contrasting attitudes of New Zealanders and Americans during the pandemic – Restaurant dining (not enforced by travel) – Accusation against Hans Niemann – Evening statistics

Many of Jane Austen’s sentences are a source of delight to me regardless of their context, but there is one from Pride and Prejudice that seems particularly apposite today:  “Mrs. Bennet was restored to her usual querulous serenity.”  Now that I look back upon my recent complaints about the rainy weather, they seem to me fretful and even peevish.  Residents in Florida have felt the effects of the recent hurricane, which has merely brushed by this area, to a much more severe degree than we have.  A popular vacationing spot, Sanibel Island, is now declared to be uninhabitable and its population is being forced to find living quarters elsewhere.  Thousands of people in the Cape Coral-Fort Myers metropolitan area have been without power for days and have been required to boil their water before using it.  What have we had to endure in the mid-Atlantic states by way of contrast?  Some wet and rather chilly days that didn’t even bring in an extraordinary accumulation and that never at any time broke out into a severe downpour:  the rain consisted mainly of drizzle and off-and-on showers. 

The reappearance of the sun today would in itself have been a restorative to my mood, but yesterday also was exceedingly pleasant.  I went with the Vigorous Hikers on a route beginning at South Run and continuing to the Cross County Trail (further south than the portion I covered last week) and then back again via the circuit around Lake Mercer.  The weather was cool and damp but we had no rain, and the stream crossings were not troublesome at all.  (As I said above, the actual amount of rainfall was not enormous, despite the continual hours of overcast skies.)  There were not many of us, but we had the pleasure of the inclusion of MS, who had frequently hiked with us before she became a resident of New Zealand.  She has been paying a visit to the U.S. and was able to join us while staying in the DC area.  We completed 13 miles.  Normally we would have extended the hike by circumnavigating Burke Lake as well, but we decided not to risk starting around the circuit (it is nearly an additional six miles, including the connector trail between South Run and Burke Lake) and being caught by a rainstorm. 

MS and I fell into conversation during the hike, and she gave me a good deal of information about life in New Zealand during the pandemic.  In general, there has been much less turmoil about it than what we have undergone here.  There may have been the odd holdout here and there who resisted taking the vaccines, but by and large people received them with the same sang-froid that Americans displayed about taking the polio vaccine in the early 1960s.  Then, too, New Zealand has seen no counterpart to the displays of screaming hysterics and physical violence from pampered over-indulged women with a grossly exaggerated idea of their personal importance when asked to comply with mask mandates in shops and restaurants.  MS added that the enthusiasm that Jacinda Ardern has evoked from foreign observers is not reciprocated to the same degree by several New Zealanders; but she admitted that at no point did Ardern display anything like the blatant irresponsibility and eventual treasonous conduct of our late President – but I must not belabor this last point, I’ve said too much about it already.

Several of us dined together that same evening.  I have eaten at several restaurants during my recent trips, but that was mainly because it was impossible to get fed otherwise.  I had gotten out of the habit of dining in restaurants while staying back home, so it felt strange at first to see that dining out has become as relaxed and stress-free as it had been before the pandemic began.  The fare was simple but satisfying, and we chatted comfortably together about travel plans and the comings and goings of mutual acquaintances.  Even in this situation, however, we were not completely untouched by the pandemic:  during our conversation it was mentioned that LH, who under normal conditions would have hiked with us that day, had contracted COVID and was currently in self-isolation.

During the hike, also, TK and CC touched upon the recent scandal that is rocking the chess-playing community:  namely, the accusations of cheating by Magnus Carlson against Hans Niemann.  Niemann has admitted to cheating in the past in games played against computers, but denies having cheated in any over-the-board games.  Cheating online is easy enough to do:  one can play against a computer at one workstation and then access the moves recommended by chess engines via a second, independently powered workstation.  But it seems unbelievable that he could cheat in a live tournament.  Even the aid of an unseen accomplice would not be of much use:  the position of the game has a 15-minute time lag time before it can be viewed by the spectators, so that at almost any point in the game it is impossible for anyone except the two players and the officials to know the placement of the pieces at any given time (unless one of the players takes more than fifteen minutes to make a single move, but that does not happen very often in matches that stipulate that players make forty moves in two hours).  On the other hand, Niemann has replicated the moves recommended by chess engines with uncanny accuracy – far greater than that of the other masters.  And he is only nineteen years old.  That is not exactly impossible – for all anyone knows, Niemann might be the greatest player ever in the history of chess – but it is extremely unlikely.  FIDE, the governing organization of international chess competition, is currently investigating the matter.  It may be added that Niemann has stated that he is prepared to play naked, in “a closed box with zero electronic transmission,” in order to prove his innocence – which certainly shows a degree of confidence in the outcome.

Oath Keepers on trial – A fishy competition – Oncoming economic crisis in Turkey – The lifting of travel health notices – The end of the pandemic in sight, at least officially – Evening statistics

Another day of rain, the third one in a row, and on this day I went on no hike and indeed hardly ventured out at all.  The weather and the inactivity have affected my mood, for even the news that five members of the Oath Keepers are formally charged with sedition, which ordinarily would have been a source of great gratification, has aroused little more than a passing interest.  I suppose that all of the arraigning of Trump’s minions on various charges of increasing severity will slowly erode the grip he has been exerting upon the American political scene since 2016, but the operative word in that sentence is “slowly.”  When, oh when, will Trump be formally be charged in his own person?  I realize that he is a former President and that for that reason the cases against him (for there are several) must be carefully prepared, but I have seen glaciers move more rapidly than the district attorneys who claim to be on the verge of arraigning him.

However, at least some of the headlines are less somber. Jason Fischer, director of the Lake Erie Walleye Trail tournament, a fishing competition in Ohio (it must be admitted that his surname is curiously appropriate for such an enterprise), immediately became suspicious when one team turned in fish that weighed nearly twice as much as their size would have indicated.  When he inspected the fish he felt hard objects inside them.  A closer inspection showed that the team stuffed the fish that they caught with lead weights and fish fillets.  One would think that so obvious a subterfuge would be easily detected; but Jacob Runyon and Chase Cominsky, the two team members, have won several similar tournaments in the past, which suggests that most tournament directors can be duped fairly easily.

Turkey is on the verge of an economic crisis similar to that of Germany in the years after World War I.  It now has an inflation rate of 83%, the highest it’s been in a quarter of century.  As the value of the lira plummets, imports such as gas and fertilizers for producing goods (which form a critical portion of Turkish national economy) become prohibitively expensive for the farmers who use them.  It’s all due to President Erdogan’s stubborn insistence on cutting interest rates in an effort, he says, to boost the economy; though, as the majority of the populace are already driven to such straits as cutting down on the amount of food they eat and more than 20% of young men in Turkey are unemployed, he cannot fail to leave them in a more impoverished condition than he found them.

The CDC is dropping the country-by-country COVID-19 travel health notices that it began issuing early in the pandemic.  CDC spokeswoman Kristen Nordlund said the agency will only post a travel health notice for an individual country if a situation such as a troubling new variant of the virus.  Many countries are no longer testing for the virus or reporting the number of COVID-19 cases, which means that the CDC has no longer has the means of calculating the risk of traveling to them.  This is reassuring news in one sense – it means that the logistics of travel become less complicated – but it also means that one could very easily travel to a country that consistently under-reports its mortality rate (Mexico and Brazil come to mind) and thereby land into a hotbed of infection. 

COVID’s classification as a state of emergency may be seeing its final days.  The national state of emergency still remains in effect, but on a state-by-state basis only the following states still give COVID an emergency status:  Washington, California, Colorado, New Mexico, Kansas, Texas, Illinois, Georgia, West Virginia, Delaware, Connecticut and Rhode Island.  For most of these, COVID;s emergency status will come to an end by October 31^st or sooner.  Only California, Kansas, and West Virginia will wait longer.  If the national declaration of the state of emergency is not renewed after October 13^th, of course, then the pandemic may be said to be officially at an end. 

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 623,654,574; # of deaths worldwide: 6,551,590; # of cases U.S.: 98,270,417; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,084,961.  The statistics seem to bear out that the disease is becoming endemic.  Today’s death toll among Americans was well under 100 and the number of new cases is less than 10,000.

Hiking nearly 50 miles in three days – Trump menaces McConnell – Evening statistics

I have been out and about, despite the weather.  On Friday I went with RS on the Fairfax Cross County Trail, starting from Lake Accotink and ending at Difficult Run.  It was a long day, for we took a detour on account of the trail around the lake being closed for repairs; in the end I did about 29 miles.  The rainclouds lowered towards the mid-afternoon, but there was no rainfall until well after 4:00, and even then it was only sprinkles.  I was glad of this, for the last stream crossing along Difficult Run can indeed be difficult if the rocks on the crossing are wet, but we had had so much dry weather earlier that they proved to be quite easy to traverse.

Saturday I went with the Capital Hiking Club on the Appalachian Trail in Pennsylvania, starting from Pine Grove Rd. and ending at Boiling Springs.  The weather was wet – wetter, in fact, than the forecast led us to believe that it would be.  It rained more or less continually from 11:00 onwards, tapering off only about 2:30, when we were approaching the bus.  Boiling Springs is undergoing a rather unfortunate phase that I earnestly hope is only temporary.  It seems to have fallen into disarray and is undergoing a state of repair.  The historic tavern is closed for renovations; Children’s Pond has been drained, and the hot spring is currently not active.  It is still a lovely place, with its array of 19^th-century architecture, but it was something of a letdown that day from the memories I had of past visits there.

The forecast for today was ominous, and in preparation I had included a complete change of clothes after the hike I co-led for the Wanderbirds in Susquehanna State Park.  But this precaution turned out to be unnecessary.  it was a much easier hike than yesterday’s in every respect.  The temperature was warmer than that of the day before; the rain was sporadic and for the most part consisted of mild drizzle; the fact that the hike involved less elevation gain made it possible for me to use one hiking pole only, leaving the other hand free to hold an umbrella whenever the rain became troublesome.  And the Susquehanna River is undoubtedly one of the loveliest rivers in the country, even in these conditions; it had a silvery quality today that contrasted with the low clouds and the mild infusion of moisture in the air.  At the Conowingo Dam, where the bus was parked, gulls and cormorants and terns were skimming over the river’s surface searching for fish as the water flowed through the gates of the dam.  It turned out to be quite a lovely day, despite the gloomy forecasts of the meteorologists.

There is little news of interest, except for the fact the Trump has turned upon Mitch McConnell, declaring in a Truth Social post (Truth Social is Trump’s hastily-cobbled substitute social medium for Twitter, which continues to ban him) that McConnell must have a “death wish” – hinting at a forthcoming assassination.  He included a racist slur on McConnell’s wife, Elaine Chao, for good measure. 

But is this really news?  Surely the fact that Trump has repaid the support of an erstwhile devotee with abuse and insults and death threats cannot come across as a novelty to anyone.  His entire career is littered with cases of men and women who have rallied to his cause in the past and who received castigation and calumny as their reward once his relationship with them soured.  It is a source of continual amazement to me that anyone would trust him for five minutes on end.  But they do, despite all of the warnings his past behavior has provided, and it is difficult to feel sympathy for these victims of his.  As the Chinese proverb has it, “He who falls into the same ditch twice deserves to break his neck.”

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 623,446,488; # of deaths worldwide: 6,550,572; # of cases U.S.: 98,254,626; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,084,892. 

East of Harpers Ferry along the Potomac along official and unofficial trails – Abortions in India – COVID and the World Cup – The lifting of mask recommendations for medical facilities – Evening statistics

Yesterday I went out with RS from Harpers Ferry to George Mill Rd. in Lovettsville, staying close to the river for most of the length of the hike.  The first part, which went along the Appalachian Trail and then via the Loudoun Heights Trail, took place on established and maintained walkways; but the remainder was either on unofficial paths or, on occasion, through thickets that required a bit of bushwhacking.  Officially the Loudoun Heights Trail ends at Split Rock, but there is now a discernable path to its east for most of the way towards a parking area on Rte. 340, close to the intersection with Rte. 671.  It appears to be only a matter of time before this path is cleared entirely and becomes an extension of the trail in its current state.  After arriving at the parking area, we went to the north side of Rte. 340 and adhered quite closely to the river.  Parts of our progress still involved a bit of effort, but many areas have been cleared.  In some cases there was clear evidence of mowing and of removing blow-downs.  Although it was sufficient dry for us to go along Devil’s Elbow, we instead went along a couple of paths that led over the rocks and then back down to the river to enable us to see the state of an alternate route (Devil’s Elbow is unusable when the river’s water level is high, so this alternate route is necessary if there is to be a continuous trail at all.)  All in all it was quite gratifying to see that progress has been made on making the bank of the river east of Harpers Ferry accessible to pedestrians.  Once again, we couldn’t have asked for better weather.  It has been wonderfully mild and sunny for the entire week.

India’s Supreme Court has ruled that all women, regardless of marital status, may have abortions for up to 24 weeks after conception.  It is not a great change – previously married women could have abortions for up to 24 weeks after conception, while single women were limited to 20 weeks after conception – but it shows how we are retrogressing in comparison with other nations that are generally considered more restrictive in their views about women.  The Indian judicial authorities, in all probability, are not to be swayed by the argument that greater access to abortion will reduce the amount of population growth.  The country is currently home to nearly one-and-a-half billion people, more than a sixth part of all of the men and women in the world.  If there is one threat that India does not have to fear, it is depopulation.

It’s easy to forget about COVID amid headlines about various hurricanes, floods, droughts, earthquakes, Trump, and other natural disasters, but it is still making its presence felt.  Attendees to the World Cup in Qatar, for instance, must present proof of a negative COVID test result taken in the 48 hours before arriving in the country.  Players and staff with the 32 World Cup teams will have to take rapid antigen tests every two days in Qatar, as will referees and match officials.  There is no vaccine mandate, as had been originally proposed; but vaccinations are “strongly recommended.”  Qatar has been relatively fortunately in its struggles against the disease – well under a thousand deaths for a nation of nearly three million people.  No doubt this result is due in part to the fact that Qatar’s population is relatively young, but the country has also resorted to rigorous measures to contain the disease:  Qatar was locked down for several months and areas with migrant workers were cut off. Parks, mosques, shops, restaurants, and other establishments were closed for the better part of a year. Starting in mid-May, 2020, face masks became mandatory in public places, and authorities did not hesitate to arrest those who violated the restrictions.  Over 97% of the population in Qatar has received at least one vaccine dose. 

Our own nation is not exercising anything close to the same level of caution.  After Biden said that the pandemic is over, the CDC rescinded its universal masking recommendations for healthcare settings.  Facemasks and air filtration are no longer required in hospitals, nursing homes, medical offices, and so on.  On a personal level, it has often happened that when I now enter a store, I’m the only one wearing a facemask.  The others may do as they please about such matters; over the past two years, cases of influenza and other bronchial diseases have declined significantly, so I will continue to wear masks no matter how often the pandemic is declared to be over.  Incidentally, COVID is still listed as having a state of emergency status and it will retain that status until October 13^th at the earliest.

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 622,151,564; # of deaths worldwide: 6,546,316; # of cases U.S.: 98,131,638; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,083,976.  Nearly 30% of Americans have contracted the disease since 2020, according to official statistics; if we factor in the numbers of cases that were uncovered in the privacy of home use of testkits without reporting results of tests that were positive, the percetage of those who were infected is probably significantly higher.

My new trail name – Setting up a hiking route between two rivers – Retribution overtakes Fanone’s assailant – Evening statistics

Today I received my trail name.

There is nothing to prevent any hiker from selecting a trail name for himself or herself, but it carries more conviction if it is conferred by others.  The circumstances attending this one were as follows:  I was hiking with RS, trying to work out a route for the “Potomaquan,” i.e., a route from the Potomac to the Occoquan rivers that involves using the Potomac Heritage Trail as much as possible.  We started from the Bazil Newman park in Landsdown and ended at Mount Pleasant Baptist Church in Lucketts, a journey between 23 and 24 miles, with perhaps 1500 feet of elevation gain.  In the course of our wanderings I tended to step ahead of him on several occasions, especially along the numerous ups and downs of Balls Bluff Park, and at one point he dubbed me “Quicksilver.”  I would not have thought of such a name myself, but I confess that it pleases me and I adopt it with alacrity.

The first half of the hike was delightful, going on the PHT alongside Goose Creek and using various other paths that connected us to Morven Park with hardly any amount of road walking.  Alas, the second half was less enjoyable.  The Potomac Heritage Trail simply peters out after Morven Park, and we were reduced to road walking to go over a ridgeline back to Lucketts.  But it was a fine day and we enjoyed splendid views periodically when we summited various hills and saw expanses of rolling meadow land fringed with forest.  At one point we went through a grove of tall pines, and the effect of their straight trucks and their branches shading the walkway was vaguely reminiscent of a cathedral. 

We plan to continue our efforts throughout the week, in hopes of completing the distance between the two rivers in the course of four days.

The efforts of today have made me rather tired, so scanning the headlines, either for political developments or COVID-related articles, will have to wait until another day.

There is one exception,  I am happy to report that Kyle Young, the man who bludgeoned Officer Michael Fanone with a flagpole during the assault on the Capitol, has received seven years in prison, one of the longest sentences given to the rioters.  Fanone suffered a heart attack as he was “grabbed, beaten, tased, all while being called a traitor to my country,” to use his own words.  His career as an officer was brought to an end with this assault; his health has been broken and he may easily be forced to live as in invalid for the remainder of his days.

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 621,168,378; # of deaths worldwide: 6,542,765; # of cases U.S.: 97,989,305; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,082,271. 

On the Little Devils Stairs Trail – Evening statistics

I led a hike along Little Devils Stairs today, a splendid hike the ends up ascending nearly 1500 feet through a river gorge.  The ascent begins gradually but eventually becomes quite steep, on occasion requiring hand-over-hand climbing.  The cliffs enclosing the gorge close in towards the top, great walls of rock covered with leafy trees at the top.  It was the least difficult of the many times I have used this trail, for the stream was so low that the crossings over Keyser Run were no trouble at all and I was able to complete the hike dry-shod.  One might expect a hike such as this would fatigue me, for I had hiked over ten miles before reaching the Little Devils Stairs trailhead, and the trail itself provided an additional two miles, in addition to its elevation gain.  But on the contrary, I was in a euphoric mood when I emerged at the fire road at the trail’s end, refreshed, energized, and feeling quite ready to ascend as much again.  The weather may have had a share in my enjoyment; it was warm enough to warrant short-sleeves but not oppressively hot and not very humid, even though there were a few sprinkles from time to time. 

I can’t bother with political issues today.  They seem so insignificant in comparison with such an experience as this.  I’m a little more concerned with keeping abreast on our progress in overcoming the pandemic, but there appear to be no new developments worth reporting.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 620,237,082; # of deaths worldwide: 6,540,297; # of cases U.S.: 97,905,743; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,081,715. 

How the importance of historical events wanes over time – The fate of another Capitol rioter – Finland closes its border to Russia – A walk in the woods – Evening statistics

“Everything rung and was connected with the Revolution in France.  Everything, not this thing or that thing, but literally everything, was soaked in this one event.”

These words were written by Henry Thomas Cockburn, a prominent Scottish lawyer and judge in his memorials, which essentially were an early 19^th-century version of a blog.  And less than a century later, another and somewhat better-known author alluded to this event in a somewhat different tone:

LADY BRACKNELL:  Mr. Worthing, I confess I feel somewhat bewildered by what you have just told me. To be born, or at any rate bred, in a hand-bag, whether it had handles or not, seems to me to display a contempt for the ordinary decencies of family life that reminds one of the worst excesses of the French Revolution. And I presume you know what that unfortunate movement led to?

In the early decades of the 19^th century the French Revolution was still a momentous episode that created lasting memories in the minds of those who lived through it, even when separated from its immediate ramifications by the English Channel.  And by 1895, Oscar Wilde could make it the subject of his jokes; it becomes a bugaboo for the grotesque Lady Bracknell, as she responds in outrage to the revelation that her daughter’s would-be suitor had been left abandoned as an infant in a handbag at a railway station.  The dialogue preceding her reaction will give an idea of the context in which it takes place:

JACK:  The fact is, Lady Bracknell, I said I had lost my parents. It would be nearer the truth to say that my parents seem to have lost me . . . I don’t actually know who I am by birth. I was . . . well, I was found.

LADY BRACKNELL:  Found!

JACK:  The late Mr. Thomas Cardew, an old gentleman of a very charitable and kindly disposition, found me, and gave me the name of Worthing, because he happened to have a first-class ticket for Worthing in his pocket at the time. Worthing is a place in Sussex. It is a seaside resort.

LADY BRACKNELL:  Where did the charitable gentleman who had a first-class ticket for this seaside resort find you?

JACK:  [Gravely.] In a hand-bag.

LADY BRACKNELL:  A hand-bag?

JACK:  [Very seriously.] Yes, Lady Bracknell. I was in a hand-bag—a somewhat large, black leather hand-bag, with handles to it – an ordinary hand-bag in fact.

LADY BRACKNELL:  In what locality did this Mr. James, or Thomas, Cardew come across this ordinary hand-bag?

JACK:  In the cloak-room at Victoria Station. It was given to him in mistake for his own.

LADY BRACKNELL:  The cloak-room at Victoria Station?

JACK:  Yes. The Brighton line.

LADY BRACKNELL:  The line is immaterial. 

I mention this because it occurs to me that perhaps some of the events I have narrated in this journal that have struck me as being of grave importance, perhaps to the extent of being catastrophes, will in the course of several decades become a subject of mirth and jests.  The assault on the Capitol, for example, may in time become the basis for farces, and a dramatization of this kind would certainly provide a clever comic actor plenty of opportunities to ham it up in the role of Donald Trump.  We may even see comedies about the pandemic itself, or at any rate the various reactions that several political and medical institutions made in response, many of which I admit to be risible.

It is as well that this be so, I suppose.  No doubt survival of peoples and nations would be precarious if humanity as a whole were less resilient.  And yet I cannot help feeling some resentment towards the later generations who will take events such as the treasonable attack of January 6, 2021 or the epidemic as a whole so light-heartedly.  As I believe I have illustrated, and as have the records of many others during the past two years have attested, they were anything but enjoyable to undergo.

Speaking of the attack on the Capitol, yet another rioter has pleaded guilty – to disorderly conduct on Capitol grounds, which carries a maximum of six months in prison.  David Johnston was identified from TikTok and Facebook live videos as one of those storming the Capitol.  He is an attorney from South Carolina and is 66 years old – old enough to know better.  He has already paid heavily since his arrest in May, 2022; he was fired from his law firm and his license to practice law in South Carolina was suspended by the state’s Supreme Court just a few days afterwards. 

In response to the increasing numbers of Russian men in the 18-27 age bracket fleeing to avoid conscription, Finland has declared that it will greatly restrict the number of Russian “tourists” permitted to visit the nation and has, in effect, closed its border, thereby blocking all land border crossings for Russians to enter any of the remaining nations in Europe.  The Baltic nations closed their borders a few days earlier, so the only countries through which Russians can now enter Europe are Belarus, which is not likely to be sympathetic towards men fleeing from Putin’s regime, and Ukraine itself.  Officially the Finnish government has said that issuing thousands of visas to Russian men would cause “serious damage to Finland’s international position.”  But I have no doubt that sheer prudence dictated this policy as well:  after seeing how Russian soldiers have treated Ukrainian civilians over the past several weeks, no nation in its senses would desire to see a large number of Russian youths in its midst.

It is a relief to turn from these political issues at home and abroad to scenes of domestic tranquility I have been enjoying in private:  specifically, to the hike I led today for Capital Hiking Club in Little Bennett Regional Park.  The area provides no spectacular overlooks or panoramic views of mountain scenery, but it is exceedingly pleasant to roam through, with trails crisscrossing the piedmont scenery, none of them particularly steep or rocky; and, moreover, on a day whose conditions were nearly ideal:  clear and dry, with comfortable temperatures never going above 70.  The only outstanding feature was the dappled sunlight filtering through the chinks between the leaves of the branches arching overhead, but that was sufficient to provide a day of thorough enjoyment.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 619,952,013; # of deaths worldwide: 6,539,682; # of cases U.S.: 97,895,860; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,081,708. 

Another of Trump’s sharp tools broken and tossed aside – The apparent impossibility of making Trump accountable – A fictional precursor of our ex-President – Evening statistics

Another participant in the assault on the Capitol has been convicted.  Doug Jensen, a firm believer in the conspiracy theories of QAnon, was the man who chased Officer Eugene Goodman up a flight of stairs, possibly with the intent of killing him, certainly with the intent of injuring him.  His sentencing is scheduled for December 16^th.  He faces a heavy penalty:  Thomas Robertson, a former police officer found guilty of similar charges, has received 87 months in prison.

These delinquents are for the most part dull-witted, poorly-educated, readily-deluded men, and obtaining convictions for their seditious actions has been relatively easy.  But how difficult it has been to obtain a conviction to the author of all of this destruction!  We do not appear to be any nearer to placing Trump on trial than we were twenty months ago, when the attack on the Capital occurred.  There are many lawsuits pending, to be sure, but when will one of them actually materialize? 

Fani Willis, at least, has recently floated the possibility of a prison sentence for Trump’s attempt to derail the election in Georgia.  I can only hope she has the resolution to pursue this goal.  Imprisonment is the sole penalty that will make any impression on him.  Fines, however large, are useless:  he has far too much money to be injured materially by any forfeit a court judge may impose on him. 

How strange that Nathaniel Hawthorne, in 1851, appeared to have anticipated a public figure such as Trump when describing Judge Jaffrey Pyncheon in The House of Seven Gables:

“The Judge, beyond all question, was a man of eminent respectability. The church acknowledged it; the state acknowledged it. It was denied by nobody. In all the very extensive sphere of those who knew him, whether in his public or private capacities, there was not an individual – except Hepzibah, and some lawless mystic, like the daguerreotypist, and, possibly, a few political opponents – who would have dreamed of seriously disputing his claim to a high and honorable place in the world’s regard. Nor (we must do him the further justice to say) did Judge Pyncheon himself, probably, entertain many or very frequent doubts, that his enviable reputation accorded with his deserts. His conscience, therefore, usually considered the surest witness to a man’s integrity, – his conscience, unless it might be for the little space of five minutes in the twenty-four hours, or, now and then, some black day in the whole year’s circle, – his conscience bore an accordant testimony with the world’s laudatory voice. And yet, strong as this evidence may seem to be, we should hesitate to peril our own conscience on the assertion, that the Judge and the consenting world were right, and that poor Hepzibah with her solitary prejudice was wrong.  Hidden from mankind, – forgotten by himself, or buried so deeply under a sculptured and ornamented pile of ostentatious deeds that his daily life could take no note of it, – there may have lurked some evil and unsightly thing. Nay, we could almost venture to say, further, that a daily guilt might have been acted by him, continually renewed, and reddening forth afresh, like the miraculous blood-stain of a murder, without his necessarily and at every moment being aware of it.”   

I can only conclude that men of Trump’s mentality were a more frequent a feature of American political life, and one of greater antiquity, than is commonly supposed. Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 619,542,822; # of deaths worldwide: 6,538,186; # of cases U.S.: 97,876,662; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,081,475.

The upcoming end of the pandemic – An impressive example of translating gobbledygook into English – Another Capitol assaulter imprisoned – Abortion ban in Indiana overturned – A reaction against aged statesmen – The strange forlorn hopes of Dan Cox – Evening statistics

There is so much to do after returning from a trip that even the day after I deplaned I was not able to update the journal.  And yet much has happened during the interval. 

President Biden announced that the pandemic is at an end.  This, however, is not quite true from an official point of view.  COVID has been declared to be an emergency on a quarterly basis for several quarters by now and it therefore must remain so until the end of September at the very earliest.  It seems likely, moreover, that its status as an emergency will be renewed on October 1^st for the fourth quarter of the year as well.  However, there is a distinct possibility that for the first quarter of 2023, it will be classified as an emergency no longer.  If so, the pandemic can be said to be officially at an end by that date, at any rate in this country.

During the trip I asked AN, who is involved in medical research, about this issue; and she confirmed that indeed COVID is on the road to becoming truly endemic, just like the flu. 

CDC Director Rochelle Walensky, however, has refrained from endorsing Biden’s claim for the moment.  During an interview with anchor Terry Moran, she gave vent to the following remarks:  “We continue to encourage people to do all the things they can do to protect themselves. We have the tools right now to protect ourselves. You can get your primary series if you haven’t yet gotten it. You can get year updated fall bivalent vaccine. And then, should you actually get an infection, we have tools like Paxlovid so that you can protect yourself against severe disease, hospitalization, and death.  If you look at the big picture, things are very different. Hospitals are not overwhelmed. People are back to work. Schools are open again. I think those are critically important metrics.”  To which Moran responded, “I’ll take that as a no, that it is not entirely over.”  I am somewhat critical of journalists in general but I must admit that they have their uses on occasion; sometimes they are only ones who are able to translate the pronouncements of public officials into intelligible English.

Timothy Hale-Cusanelli is an ex-Army reservist who described his participation in the assault on the Capitol as “exhilarating.” He appears to be somewhat less elated after being sentenced to four years in prison.  One of his attorneys, Nicholas Smith, pleaded that his client’s upbringing was like “something from Oliver Twist” – a somewhat unfortunate comparison, for, as readers of Dickens’ novel might be aware, Oliver Twist displays no criminal tendencies whatever despite his disadvantages; and there are many disadvantaged children in real life who display similar strength of character in resisting the corruption that surrounds them. 

Special Judge Kelsey Hanlon of the Owen County Circuit Court has suspended Indiana’s ban on abortions, which means that they will be available in the state to women up to 20 weeks after fertilization or 22 weeks after the last menstrual cycle.  Hanlon, it may be noted, is a Republican.  Not all Republicans support the anti-abortion movement by any means; there is considerable dissension within the GOP as to the validity of overturning the availability of abortions to so many women who require them and, possibly, as to the advisability of pursuing a policy that is so decidedly misogynistic, thereby alienating at least half of the nation’s voters.

I have repeatedly stressed how the U.S. government is in danger of becoming a gigantic gerontocracy, and I am happy to say that one poll, at least, suggests that many agree with me on this point.  An Insider/Morning Consult poll surveyed 2,200 respondents, of whom 76% said that Biden was too old to serve as President and 57% said the same about Trump.  Regardless of a presidential candidate’s political opinions, it simply is not advisable to have a president in office well into his eighties.  Or a Senator.  Or a Representative. Or a Supreme Court judge. 

Our Supreme Court is actually relatively young at the moment, with four of the justices being in their fifties.  The average age of our Senate, on the other hand, is 63 years, with five members being 80 or older.  Our House of Representatives is slightly younger, with an average of 58 years, 11 of whom are 80 or older.  More than 50 of them (over 10% of the total) are 70 or older. 

Donald Trump will be holding a fund-raiser for Dan Cox, the GOP gubernatorial candidate for Maryland, at Mar-a-Lago.  Cox has not the remotest chance of winning, for Wes Moore, his opponent, currently leads in the polls by 53% to Cox’s 31%.  There are far too many Marylanders who work in Washington or its environs not to resent Trump’s assault on the Capitol and who thus will not be sympathetic to Cox’s endorsement of Trump’s claim of a stolen election.  In any case, Cox’s evident belief that Trump’s exertions will actually place money into his own coffers instead of those of Donald Trump are such patent delusions, so woefully devoid of any basis in reality, so strangely ignorant of Trump’s determination to enrich no one but himself, as to make me who hate him pity him.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 618,968,542; # of deaths worldwide: 6,535,975; # of cases U.S.: 97,786,586; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,080,819.  The last week I recorded statistics was on September 9^th, the day before my trip, nearly two weeks ago.  Since then we have had about 20,000 deaths globally and slightly under 5, 000 nationally – not trivial amounts by any means, but far better for any comparable period of time during the previous year.  The U.S. still accounts for a disproportionate amount of COVID-related deaths; even though it ranks 58^th among nations for the incidence of COVID, its mortality rate is the 16^th-highest among all countries.

I have returned from Estes Park, where I have been staying for over a week to hike along various trails in Rocky Mountain National Park.  Estes Park is a rather sprawling town, despite its small size (its population is less than 6,000), with a minute downtown of a few blocks with an assortment of shops typical of resort areas.  The architecture, though not ugly, is undistinguished.  It does not charm, neither does it repel.  Its most attractive feature is Lake Estes, a reservoir created by the Olympic Dam, which is surrounded by a trail of nearly four miles in circumference that I had occasion to use (as will be seen below) and notable for the number of elk in its proximity.  Our accommodations were quite comfortable and exceedingly spacious. 

The reason for staying at Estes Park, of course, is the access it provides for Rocky Mountain National Park, which is the one of the most frequently visited park in the country.  It is huge, being over 400 square miles, with well over 350 miles of trails, so that it is impossible to cover it all in a single visit.  Our party of nearly two dozen split up into several smaller groups each day to cover various alternatives, knowing very well that no matter which ones we chose there were bound to be many other desirable hikes that we would be obliged to omit.  Here, then, is a day-by-day account of the hikes that I did on ths trip.

9/11, Flattop and various lakes, 12½ miles, 3,500’ elevation

I went with GC, who tends to be my main companion on such trips, since he attempts somewhat more ambitious hikes than the remainder of the group cares to essay.  In order to get to the trailhead we were obliged to use a pass, which I had obtained beforehand, to the Bear Lake area of the park.  The parking area fills up so rapidly, especially on weekends, that it is best to park at a “Park and Ride” area about halfway between the park entrance and the Bear Lake area, and then use a park-provided shuttle to the trailhead.

I was apprehensive about hiking the first day in such high elevation, particularly since I had slept badly the night before.  But my fears were groundless.  Despite feeling somewhat listless upon awakening, I immediately felt better once I began to hike on the trail.  This has happened to me on several occasions in the past – that is, feeling rather weak or even a bit ill upon getting out of bed and riding to the trailhead, only to find my energies reviving once I begin to exert myself.  The trail to Flattop is a fairly steady ascent, with few parts of it unduly steep.  I did feel the effects of the elevation in the latter part of the hike, which is of course is higher; even though the grade of the path did not increase I slowed down considerably upon the approach to the summit.  The views from the summit itself provide extensive vistas of many peaks, including Hallett Peak, and by venturing to the edge of the plateau at the top we obtained views of the Tyndall Glacier.  Moreover, we were able to see from above several of the lakes for which the park is noted; as LM remarked, this area could easily be called the Lake District of North America.  We roamed a little from the trail itself to obtain views of the glacier from other angles and also of Dream Lake and Emerald Lake from above.

Since it was before 1:00 by the time we returned, we added an there-and-back extension to Nymph Lake, Dream Lake, and Emerald Lake.  Nymph Lake had been hidden from our perspective when we were on the trail to Flattop, but it is a clear lake dotted with numerous water-lilies.  Dream Lake is long and narrow, with very clear waters, while Emerald Lake, true to its name, has a gem-like quality to its hue, which was accentuated by the sunlight sparkling on the surface.  It was strange to see these two lakes from the shores after viewing them earlier in the day several hundred feet above them. 

To our great pleasure we encountered LT and TJ at Emerald Lake; they had hiked there separately from the remainder of the group, and we chatted about our experiences of the park to date as we snacked by the lake shore and watched the play of the sunbeams on the lake surface.

9/12, Andrews Glacier and Sky Pond, 14 miles, 3000’ elevation

This hike was lovely, starting from Bear Lake, taking the trail past Nymph Lake and Dream Lake, and then veering towards the main trail leading from the Glacier Creek trailhead.  From there we went up first to the Loch, a beautiful lake with views of Taylor Peak in the background.  Then we ascended to Andrews Glacier along a grade that was moderate at first but which eventually became very precipitous as it went along a mountain wall.  GC and I reached a ridge at the bottom of the glacier and went up some part of the glacier itself.  But it would have been imprudent to ascend all the way to its top; it consisted of ice only, without any snow, and was soft and yielding in temperatures of the day, which were quite warm despite our elevation.  Going up was certainly possible, but getting down again would have presented difficulties.  Instead we had a relaxing lunch when we returned to the ridge, after which we descended to the main trail and went up to Lake of Glass and Sky Pond, both of them exceptionally large and clear.  This part of the hike involved ascending alongside Timberline Falls, which was quite steep and rocky.  One had to take care during the descent upon the return, with much use of the hands and arms.  Both of the lakes were surrounded by numerous granite spires, highlighting their clarity.  Again, we were fortunate in our weather, with untrammeled sunlight reflected on the lake surfaces. 

9/13, Odessa and Fern Lakes, 10 miles, 2400’ elevation

The day began with a disappointment.  I had gone with GC to the Long’s Peak trailhead at  4:00 AM to attempt the ascent to the summit (the only 14-er in the area), when I felt a sudden attack of illness – a fever of some kind – just a few hundred yards after we began.  So we had to return to the hotel and I immediately took to my bed to sleep for an hour or so.  When I awoke I felt somewhat better, although still somewhat weak.  I did not wish, however, to spend the entire day doing nothing, so I decided to go with a few others in the group to the Bear Lakes area and attempt a less strenuous hike, always with the option of doubling back if I felt too weak to continue.  JF, who drove the van to the area, asked me to take a COVID test before I boarded it – which I was quite glad to do, for I could not be certain whether my illness was in fact due to the pandemic.  Happily, the test came out negative.

The others in the van were hiking to the lakes I had seen earlier, so I went to Odessa Lake and Fern Lake instead.  I still was walking quite slowly in the beginning, even on areas when the trail was almost flat, but as time went on I began to feel stronger and my pace quickened.  This was just as well, for the hike turned out to be more strenuous than I anticipated.  The notice at the ranger station by the trailhead stated that the trail to Fern Lake was 4.7 miles, with 1200 feet of elevation gain in one direction.  What it did not disclose, however, was that this elevation gain occurred within the first 2½ miles, after which the trail steadily descended first to Odessa Lake and then to Fern Lake.  Fern Lake’s elevation is similar to that of Bear Lake, which meant that I would have to ascend nearly as much upon returning as I did getting there.

Odessa Lake is rather pretty, but less imposing than the lakes I had seen during the previous two days.  Still, it had excellent views of Flattop, which I had summited two days previously.  Fern Lake was quite depressing.  A forest fire had occurred in its vicinity a few years ago; and since the vegetation in the Rockies is much less resilient than that of the eastern American forest, most of the tree limbs around the lake remained blackened and scorched.  Moreover, the shore immediately around the lake is inaccessible, being cordoned off for purposes of restoration.  The views of the surrounding peaks, in consequence, are greatly restricted. 

I don’t mean to exaggerate these defects.  It was not a great hike but it was a reasonably good one.  It accomplished my main goal of restoring myself after my sudden bout of illness in the early morning; and it certainly was a preferable alternative to remaining in Estes Park with nothing to do for the entire day.

9/14, Gem Lake and Balanced Rock, 8½ miles, 2000’ elevation

This hike, in contrast to that of the day before, was splendid in every respect.  I went with several others to the Lumpy Ridge trailhead, so-called because it is a granite ridge with oddly shaped boulders and rock formations.  Many of these are popular among rock climbers.  We ascended to Gem Lake, with many views along the way, including several bird’s-eye views of Estes Park.  Gem Lake itself is small, shallow, and dark-brown in hue, almost coffee-colored, but it is set amid magnificent rock formations and when we went along the rock to one side of the lake, as we had been advised to do by two hikers we met along the way as they were descending, we had a stunning perspective of the granite rock walls encircling it. 

Afterwards we went through a pleasant and shaded forest trail to Balanced Rock, which rather resembles a huge golf ball balanced upon an equally oversize tee. 

We ate lunch after turning back and reaching Gem Lake again.  Dark clouds were forming on the horizon, so we did not linger as much as we might have done under other circumstances.  The descent immediately after the lake is steep and rocky, and would not have been pleasant to attempt during rainy weather.  As I descended, I came across two other hikers who had begun their descent but who were resting for a few minutes.  As I passed them they said to me in awestruck tones, “You must be in a great hurry.”  Well, as I told them, I was to an extent; it seemed to me a matter of some urgency to complete the rockiest portion of the descent before any precipitation started.  However, I did take a slight detour towards the very end, which added a half-mile to the total hike distance and provided views of the area just to the north of Estes Park.

On this day I read a news item stating that the WHO declared that we are near the end of the pandemic.  The WHO compared the current phase of the pandemic to the final stages of a marathon, when the end of the race is in sight but it is still imperative not to allow one’s energies to flag if one is to reach the goal. 

9/15, Timberline Pass, 4 miles, 500’ elevation and Estes Park, 4 miles, minimal elevation

This hike was at once the easiest and the most difficult of the hikes of the trip;  easiest, because the distance was short and the elevation gain hardly noticeable; most difficult, because it was set in tundra 11,000 feet above sea level, resulting in cold temperatures, continual light rain that occasionally turned into sleet, and a sharp wind constantly blowing.  But the views of the tundra were splendid, treeless plateau stretching to strangely weathered rocks and, through the cloud cover, sporadic glimpses of immense green valleys below.  The drifting mist provided a dramatic contrast to the lowlands where the mist did not reach.

We ended the hike and returned to town early.  I therefore completed the trail around Estes Lake, which is impressively large and blue.  At one point I was forced to skirt around a herd of elk reposing upon the trail itself.  A bull elk with immense antlers at some distance from the trail was presiding over his harem; and since it was their rutting season, prudence dictated that I did not approach the females too closely.

9/16, Chasm Lake, 8½ miles, 2500’ elevation

I had completed several hikes up to this point, most of them enjoyable, many of them impressive.  But this hike was by far my favorite.  The first two miles went through dense pine forest, after which it went above treeline.  Lovely and extensive views prevailed as I continued the ascent.  I was slightly confused after the trail went to a ridge and I found myself looking down upon Peacock Pond, which I thought was my destination.  It is a fairly picturesque lake but it did not seem extraordinary.  However, after I met other hikers who told me that there was still some distance to go to Chasm Lake itself, I pressed forward.  The trail descended slightly to the base of a rock wall, which I had to scramble over to reach the lake – easily the most majestic of the lakes that I saw on the entire trip, very large, intense blue-green in color, lined with peaks and cliffs all along its shore. 

I returned somewhat earlier than the others in my group, so I chatted with the ranger while I waited.  I was curious enough to ask that, since the signs stated that park passes were required to park in the lot beside the trailhead, why there was no one to whom we could show the passes when we parked there in the morning.  (We arrived at 6:00, because the parking area fills up very quickly; only two spaces were available by the time we arrived.)  He responded, quite airily, “You can show me yours now if you like.”  He seemed quite nonchalant about the matter, and I could not help contrasting his insouciance to the rigor with which passes to the Bear Lake area are reviewed and verified.  He also mentioned that he was without a partner for part of the day; his associate had been called to rescue a hiker who had broken her ankle while attempting to reach Sky Pond.  Rescue missions of this nature, he told me, occur in the park on almost a daily basis.

9/17, Mt. Chapin, Marmot Peak, Lake Irene, 6 miles total, 1800’ elevation gain

The hike on this day was at once a wonderful experience and a disappointment.  I went with several others to ascend Mt. Chapin.  We started fairly early and went to the trailhead along a steep dirt road.  Although it took a while to reach the parking area, portions of the trail were still featured a light coating of snow from a brief precipitation that had occurred the previous evening.  The trail went through tundra scenery as it ascended, sometimes quite steeply.  At one point the trail leveled out, slabbing a mountain wall.  It was rocky and of course one had to step carefully, for the snow covering was at its thickest at this point.  I put on my micro-spikes along this portion of the trail.  That was perhaps not necessary, but I felt much more confident when I had put them on.  By the time I reached the saddle between Mt. Chapin and Chiquita Mountain, they were no longer needed and I removed them.

There were seven in our party, but two of them turned back and LM accompanied them.  Only four of us remained to go up Mt. Chapin.  The views from the summit were wonderful, a 360-degree panorama, including the Trail Ridge Road and the Alpine Visitor Center in the distance.  The weather was cold and blustery, but dry and very sunny. 

It was an ideal hike as far as it went, but I wished to summit Chiquita as well, since it was a short distance once we descended again to the saddle to the ascent on its other side to the second summit, particularly as the snow had melted by the time we reached the saddle.  But it would have taken us about an hour in each direction to complete Chiquita, and that was too long a period to force the others to wait.  No doubt the views from Chiquita would have been similar to those we saw from Chapin, but the hike would have been splendid all the same.  A wasted opportunity, but it could not be helped!

When we returned and then drove towards the Visitor Center on Trail Ridge Road, we went up Marmot Peak, a brief hike (less than ½ mile in one direction) but very steep in places, going up 300 feet.  It was windy in the extreme at the top.  Again, it provided overwhelming views, including some of the Continental Divide. 

The walk around Lake Irene was not a hike at all, but a gentle stroll around a rather nondescript lake.  But it was sufficiently pleasant way to wind down after the day’s previous exertions.

9/18, Twin Sisters and Lily Ridge, 10 miles, 3000’ elevation

I went with GC this last day to Twin Sisters.  I found the ascent slightly more difficult than the one to Flattop, because it is somewhat steeper in a few places, although never for any great distance.  On the other hand, once the trail went above treeline and approached the saddle between the two peaks, or “sisters,” it was slightly easier than the final approach to the plateau of Flattop.  The views are as extensive here as they were on Flattop and Chapin, and they look down from a great height upon Estes Park and its environs.  I probably would have been more overwhelmed by these views had I seen them earlier in the trip; now, after several overlooks of this type, the views seemed . . . not mundane, exactly, but familiar.  It was an excellent hike and I would have greatly enjoyed it in any case, but it would not have been memorable had it not been for the sequel.

Since we completed the hike at 12:00, we went across to the road to Lily Lake.  The lake is pretty and fairly large, in a setting surrounded by various peaks. We went along the Lily Ridge trail, which goes slightly higher than a second trail that hugs the lake shore.  I was anticipating a tranquil stroll of a mile or so as we began to skirt through various crags.  Then at one point GC said, “I think there’s an unmarked trail that goes up to there.”  An unmarked trail that involved several additional feet of ascent, with no certainty of reaching our objective and also entailing a possibility of getting lost – you can see that it was not even a matter of discussion.  Up we went accordingly; the trail proved to be, though narrow, fairly consistently laid out and not difficult to follow.  As we came to a ledge at the base of the crags, we discovered that the area was a popular site for rock climbers.  One set of crags in particular, known as “Jurassic Park,” had several climbers scaling its heights.  We snacked on top of one of the crags and contemplated the views from the summit.  Even though we were considerably lower than we had been at the top of Twin Sisters, the views were well worth seeing – particularly as from some angles the lake at the base provided a contrast to the surrounding peaks and valleys.  It was a splendid way to round off the trip.

Abortion in South Carolina and Texas — Travel plans — Evening statistics

South Carolina failed to pass a bill that would ban abortions, regardless of whether the mother was a victim of rape or incest, for all fetuses of six weeks and older.  Interestingly, the most determined opposition came from the party whose members sponsored the bill in the first place.  Republican Tom Davis brought the voting on the bill to a halt by filibustering.  The Republican-led Senate did not have a sufficient number of votes to overcome the filibuster and proceed to voting to ratify the bill, so at this point the current ban on abortions for fetuses twenty weeks after conception remains in effect, providing a much greater amount of time for women to find out whether they are in fact pregnant (many do not receive confirmation until well after six weeks past conception) and have time to make their decisions accordingly. 

There are only three women among the Republican Senators, and all of them strenuously opposed the bill.  “Yes, I’m pro-life,” said Senator Katrina Shealy.  “I’m also pro-life with the mother, the life she has with her children who are already born. I care about the children who are forced into adulthood that was made up by a legislature full of men so they can make take a victory lap and feel good about it. You want children raising children who will most likely suffer domestic violence and live in poverty. But you don’t care because you’ve done your job and you will forget about them once they are born.”  It is too early to tell how much ramifications this particular debate may have eventually, but it is possible that it is beginning to dawn upon the Republican Party that misogyny is a very dubious basis for long-term political strategy.

The sort of results that such a strategy can produce was exemplified by the episode of Cade and Kailee DeSpain, of Texas, both of them staunch pro-lifers.  Kailee underwent several miscarriages after their marriage but in November, 2021, she was overjoyed to learn that she was pregnant.  This elation, however, was short-lived, after she learned that the infant in her womb had heart, lung, brain, kidney and genetic defects to such a degree that he would either be stillborn or struggle for breath for just a few minutes after emerging and then expiring.  Moreover, carrying the infant to term would put Kailee at risk for severe pregnancy complications, including blood clots, preeclampsia, and cancer.  But the law of Texas as it currently stands forbade her to obtain an abortion for an infant who could not possibly survive and whose birth would put her own life at risk.  She and her husband had to travel to New Mexico to have the abortion performed.  The procedure and travel costs amounted to $3500. Texas law strictly limits abortion coverage and would not pay the clinic that performed the operation; so it all came out of their own pockets. 

Doctors in Texas are understandably reluctant to perform abortions even when the mother appears to be in imminent risk of dying; if the doctor is mistaken in his diagnosis on this point, he faces heavy fines, loss of his medical license, and a possible life sentence in prison.  In addition, citizens can file lawsuits against physicians whom they believe to have performed an illegal abortion, and if they win, they can receive $10,000.  If the citizen is wrong and the doctor wins the lawsuit, the doctor still has to pay his own legal fees, as Texas law specifically forbids doctors from recouping fees from plaintiffs.  With such a reward for initiating legal harassment, Texans are far too wise not to harry their physicians to the greatest extent possible. 

From such matters I must turn my attention to personal matters and to travel plans in particular.  It is time to pack up for another trip to the mountains; Colorado beckons.  How will I fare in those high altitudes?  I did reasonably well in New Mexico last month, but I was above 10,000 feet for only one day. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 612,928,197; # of deaths worldwide: 6,513,963; # of cases U.S.: 97,021,377; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,075,312. 

Scouting Little Devils Stairs – Death of Elizabeth II – Evening statistics

Since I have two hikes to lead on the weekend immediately following my impending trip to Colorado, I felt that I should scout at least one of them today.  Accordingly I went to SNP to scout the Little Devils Stairs hike, although the hike’s name is actually somewhat misleading:  hiking up the Little Devils Stairs Trail is an option for both long and moderate hikers.  This precaution was taken because in rainy weather hiking along that trail is extremely inadvisable:  it is very rocky, as its name implies (any trail with the word “Devil” in its name, as I have previously noted, will contain an abundance of rocks and boulders) and itinvolves multiple stream crossings. 

I therefore scouted the main hike, since that is the route I will actually be leading.  It is a mile less than it would have been had I taken the Little Devils Stairs option, but it is still a bit over 12 miles.  Although it still wants two weeks to the equinox, the hike had a distinctly autumnal quality.  The temperature on the mountains remained below 70 degrees all day and the beginning of the changes in the foliage’s coloration were starting to become apparent.  In the lower elevations it is still uniformly green, but on the mountains one could see, here and there, various trees and shrubs whose leaves were beginning to turn yellow and red.

Today marks the passing of Queen Elizabeth II.  Although she was 96 years old, her death came rather suddenly.  Just two days ago she was photographed smiling and ready to greet her 15th prime minister (the first being Winston Churchill).  It is characteristic that even in her last days she determinedly fulfilled what she felt to be her royal duties.  Her elder grandson shows some signs of similar dedication, which her younger grandson and her sons certainly do not.  Various details, several of them rather sordid, about their private lives have enlivened the headlines.  But she has always remained throughout the decades untouched by scandal. 

It is strange to reflect that this remarkable woman, who seems the embodiment of what everyone expects in a constitutional monarch, was never expected to be queen at all.  It was her father’s elder brother – feckless, weak-willed, fatuous Devid Edward – who came to the throne after the death of George V in 1936.  But he was forced to abdicate before the end of the year and it was his younger brother who succeeded him as George VI.  Elizabeth’s sister Margaret later related “When our father became king, I said to her, ‘Does that mean you’re going to be queen?’ She replied, ‘Yes, I suppose it does.’ She didn’t mention it again.”  She was ten years old at the time, but already she was being trained for royal responsibilities; her father’s health declined precipitously during the 1940s, and she often took on the official functions in his place, well before his death in 1952.  She continued to do so for seventy years afterwards:  the longest reign of any British monarch. 

At this point no official date has been set for the coronation of her son, now Charles III.  It would appear that the British are not displaying any noticeable anxiety to inaugurate her successor. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 612,371,514; # of deaths worldwide: 6,511,201; # of cases U.S.: 96,957,304; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,074,780. 

A possible end to the pandemic phase – Health care in pre-historic times – Evening statistics

It’s taken a while, but it appears that we are finally approaching a phase in which the pandemic is officially at an end.  Dr. Ashish Jha , the White House COVID-19 coordinator, said that the latest vaccine rollout may be the first of what will become an annual shot for Americans, just like the flu shot.  “We are moving to a point where a single annual COVID shot should provide a high degree of protection against serious illness all year.”  In other words, our position with respect to COVID will be similar to that which we have with respect to flu:  it will still take an annual toll of deaths every year, but it will be containable. 

The main test will come during the approaching winter.  The past two winters have seen significant spikes in the number of COVID-related deaths.  There will almost certainly be a spike of some sort during the next several months, but it may be only a small one and the virus mutations may prove to be relatively mild, as the latest ones have been. The virus may “take the track of other coronaviruses” and continue to become less severe but more transmissible over time, according to Dr. Taison Bell, assistant professor of medicine in the divisions of infectious diseases and international health and pulmonary and critical care medicine at the University of Virginia.  Over the next few years, Bell said, COVID-19 “will become much more of a nuisance rather than something that’s a potential death sentence in a small percentage of people.”

Experts agree that even now the virus is still circulating at levels that are too high and unpredictable for COVID-19 to be considered over as a pandemic.  However, differences from conditions as they were a year ago are readily apparent.  Hospitals are no longer overwhelmed with COVID patients.  Very few are on ventilators. 

While we are on the subject of health care, evidence has come to light to show that it is an older profession than is generally supposed.  Researchers exploring a cave in Borneo, in a rainforest region known for having some of the earliest rock art in the world, came across the grave of a young adult whose skeleton was intact except for the left foot and part of the left leg, the result, it appears of an amputation, since the cut in the bone was clean and at a consistent angle.  An accident or an animal bite (such as a crocodile’s) would cause some fracturing, and none was found here.  This discovery raises many questions:  how, for example, was such an operation accomplished without a fatal blood loss or infection?  Those who completed the operation seem to have had some idea about the need for sterilization, staunching the blood flow, and so on.  But one fact is indisputable:  the subject of this operation must have received some sort of care afterwards, since the amputee lived about six to nine years after the operation was performed and could not have gotten about the rugged terrain of the area without assistance. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 611,756,076; # of deaths worldwide: 6,508,705; # of cases U.S.: 96,810,306; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,073,887. 

A case of identity – Boris Johnson returns to his plow – Testimony from Trump for the investigation into Trump Organization – Evening statistics

The influx of social media certainly leads to odd situations on occasion.  Many people have been sending messages – either congratulatory or very much the reverse – to the Twitter account @liztruss, under the impression that they are contacting the new U.K. Prime Minister.  In actuality the messages are being sent to one Liz Trussell, who has no political position whatsoever.  Trussell has had a great deal of fun by responding to messages as if she were the new head of government in person, but in a tone that is anything but ministerial.  For example, when the Swedish Prime Minister tagged Trussell in a congratulatory tweet (which has since been deleted and reposted with the right tag) emphasizing cooperation between the two countries, Trussell’s reply was a breezy “Looking forward to a visit soon!”  When one critic tagged Trussell in a tweet slamming Truss for “refusing” to be interviewed by the BBC, her response included an emoji of a shrugging woman, along with the reply “No one asked me” – which was, strictly speaking, quite true.  .Caroline Lucas doubtless expressed the opinion of many of her compatriots when writing this week that she meant to direct a previous tweet about Tory leadership at Truss, not Trussell, “tho frankly she’d probably make a better job of it.”

This is not the first time that such a state of affairs has occurred.  People with similar names have spoken out about being confused for Hillary Clinton and Rep. John Lewis. Media Matters fellow Matthew Gertz has repeatedly reminded people on Twitter that he is not Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz.  In 2017, Donald Trump meant to tag Theresa May in a tweet but instead tagged @theresamay, a British woman in her 40s with six Twitter followers and a protected account.  She was asleep when the message was transmitted, and only found out about it when she was subsequently bombarded with messages and interview requests.  But there can be no question that Trussell is displaying a joyous irreverence unmatched by the others mistaken for prominent politicians, and that her reaction is deservedly winning her many admirers (myself included).

Speaking of the British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson – who, it may be remembered, was kicked out when his own party decided that they were fed up with his scandal-plagued regime – in his final speech remarked that “Like Cincinnatus, I am returning to my plow.”

Huh?  Boris Johnson as a modern-day Cincinnatus?  What on earth am I missing?  Does he seriously believe that, after vigorously campaigning for the position of Prime Minister and doggedly clinging to it despite numerous calls for his resignation over the course of three years, anyone can mistake him for a modern-day Cincinnatus?  I suppose he could be considered a lover of agriculture in one respect.  He certainly has distributed a great number of plums during his administration.

Moving on to this side of the Atlantic – Donald Trump may be undergoing some sort of penalty for his numerous defalcations at long last.  Today he completed his court-ordered testimony for the New York Attorney General’s office inquiry into alleged financial wrongdoing at the Trump Organization – pleading the Fifth Amendment, naturally, and determinedly not disclosing anything.  However, Letitia James, the Attorney General, has signaled that she will file a massive, long-threatened “enforcement action,” or lawsuit against the Trumps and his Manhattan-based business.  The lawsuit will seek steep financial penalties for an alleged decade-long pattern of playing fast and loose with the assessed values of Trump Organization properties.  Not only will it press for various fines and back taxes, but it may also seek the dissolution of the business itself under New York’s so-called corporate death penalty: a law that allows the AG to seek to dissolve businesses that operate “in a persistently fraudulent or illegal manner.”  If she succeeds in doing this, it will force him to divest himself of a major portion of his real-estate portfolio, including Trump Tower in Manhattan and all of his golf courses.  It does not appear that the outcome will go well for him because, as a well-known authority has told us:  “Only guilty people plead the Fifth.”  Actually, come to think of it, that well-known authority is  . . . Donald Trump.  

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 611,133,676; # of deaths worldwide: 6,506,548; # of cases U.S.: 96,708,430; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,073,273.

A pleasurable reunion – The over-readiness to prescribe medications – Liz Truss, the new U.K. PM – Las Vegas takes precautions about water usage – Declining value of the euro – Biden’s unexpected repartee – Evening statistics

Yesterday I visited my friend MT, whom I have not seen for several years – months before the beginning of the pandemic, in fact.  This visit gave me great pleasure, for MT is one of the few people I know whose fortunes have improved over recent years.  When I last met him, he was under treatment for psychological disorders and the drugs that his physicians administered to him were attended by a host of numerous side-effects.  Since that time he has gotten a new diagnosis and has switched in consequence to a regimen that dispenses with the aforementioned drugs; and the results are as surprising as they are gratifying.  When I last saw him he was haggard, fretful, prone to complaining of how he was ill-used by the world in general.  Now he was cheerful in demeanor, looking younger than when I last saw him (which was nearly five years earlier), the arthritis that afflicted him in the past has completely disappeared, and he has moved out of the cramped little apartment in which he had dwelt for thirty years on end – not so much out of financial necessity as that he seemed to lack the initiative, and possibly even the desire, to seek out more comfortable accommodations – into a lovely apartment with about twice as much space as he has had previously, in a setting that allows him access to numerous country trails, of which he has taken full advantage.  In short, he has taken control of himself and his life:  he is working in an occupation that he likes, he is exercising regularly, he is enjoying all of the amenities provided by the location to which he has moved, and he is displaying resources of cheerfulness I had never in the past suspected him of possessing.  Even his new apartment reflects his altered outlook; in place of the disordered slovenliness I encountered in the previous visits, his new living quarters are admirably clean and well-kept. 

There is an inference from an encounter such as this one – to me, at any rate.  I cannot forebear expressing indignation at the readiness of our medical establishment to prescribe drugs as a reflex action, without any thought as to whether their side effects might outweigh their putative benefits.  I may say that the physician who acted as my GP for about 35 years was generally fairly cautious in his recommendations along these lines – partly, no doubt, because he knew that my first question about any proposed medication I had not heard about before would be “What are the probable side-effects?”  I indeed remember one conversation I had with him when it appeared that my cholesterol was on the high side.  He tentatively suggested a certain statin – I believe it was Lipitor, but I’m not certain at this late date.  I asked my usual question and he admitted that in some cases it can lead to liver damage.  “OK,” I said.  “Now we go to Plan B.”  In short, I made it clear that I was not going to consider any alternative with attendant risks of that nature, and he agreed it probably was not necessary.  He was exceptional as far as his profession goes, and for that matter I probably was not typical of American patients.  Most Americans, as I believe, tend to subscribe much less readily to the idea of refusing to take medications unnecessarily.  Indeed as a nation we are more eager than many others to swallow the nostrums of the “get-healthy-quick” variety.

England has a new Prime Minister.  Boris Johnson, as noted earlier, has been forced out of office by his own MPs after a succession of scandals.  Liz Truss, the new PM, is not entirely free of oddities of her own – she had an affair with MP Mark Field after the Tory Party appointed him as her political mentor, although eventually it terminated and her own marriage survived intact – but at the very least the British need no longer be puzzled as to many children their Prime Minister has given to the world.  She will be facing a difficult time once she assumes office.  The cost of living, which is quite a contentious issue here, is much worse in the U.K.  Both housing and food take up a considerably larger amount of income there than here, as I myself can attest from a recent stay in England and Wales just a few months ago.  Although for the most part I dined with the friends who were hosting me, on occasion I ventured into grocery stores and I was quite taken aback by the prices, which (once I translated them from pounds into dollars) were significantly more expensive for even the most common items.

I have been critical of the large cities in the West that continue to expand even though they are in the midst of a desert.  But it appears that Las Vegas, at least, is taking a few measures to conserve on their water usage:  banning private pools greater than 600 feet for private homes, recycling all indoor water (such as runoffs from showers and emptying water glasses at restaurants), banning grass and irrigation systems on new properties, penalizing home-owners or businesses that waste water, and funneling every drop of water that can be salvaged from the rare rainfalls back into Lake Mead.  These may be insufficient on their own to prevent the cities of the West from undergoing a water crisis – Lake Mead continues to be at record low levels, despite the recent monsoons – but at any rate they show that the civic authorities are not ignorant of the issue, as I had previously thought they were, and are taking active measures to correct it.

The euro now has parity with the dollar; in fact, its value is slightly below that of the dollar, being rated at $0.99.  The reason for this is that the war in Ukraine has restricted continental Europe’s access to natural gas, and as a result the European nations (and the U.K. as well) are dealing with a burgeoning energy crisis.  I have long desired the American dollar to obtain a stronger valuation with respect to various currencies, and with the euro in particular; but this wasn’t the way I wanted it to happen.

Biden has generally been portrayed as a man “slow of speech and of a slow tongue”; but today, when he was heckled by a man apparently offended by his disparaging remarks about “Trumpies,” told the security guards, “Let him go.  Everyone is entitled to be an idiot.”  This response drew laughter and applause from the crowd, and I am bound to say that it displayed a readiness to deal to unexpected situations for which I have not, up to this point, given him credit. Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  610,547,472; # of deaths worldwide: 6,504,663; # of cases U.S.: 96,641,512; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,072,978.  Should I keep tracking these figures, I wonder?  The number of COVID cases certainly keeps accumulating, but the numbers of deaths, at this point, are reassuringly low:  less than 1000 per day globally over the past week and less than 100 per day in the U.S.

Shenandoah River State Park – Rudy Giuliani – Evening statistics

Today I went with the Capital Hiking Club to Shenandoah River State Park.  We covered much of its network of trails, with numerous views of the Shenandoah River winding through the valley.  It was very warm, but not oppressively humid, and there was a great deal of shade.  As a result of the higher levels of rain than usual in July and much of August, as I noted earlier, the leaves have not shrunk and withered as they tend to do at this time of year, just before the leaves change color.  I and two others took a slight detour along the Wildcat Ridge Trail, which views the valley from a higher level, adding about ½ mile round trip and 300 feet of elevation gain to the hike.  The age level of this group is considerably younger than that of the Wanderbirds, particularly under current conditions, when it has not received any new members for many months as a result of the pandemic.  I must try to hike with this group more often, not only because I am its Director of Trails but also because it is just as well to measure my abilities with those in younger generations. 

Rudy Giuliani is, it must be admitted, displaying a good deal of spirit, considering his difficulties.  Not only is he currently the subject of investigation from Fani Wallis for his role in the attempt to derail the electoral results in Georgia and is in danger of paying heavy penalties should the lawsuit by Dominion Voting Systems be ruled in the latter’s favor, but his ex-wife has also recently sued him, alleging that he owes her more than a quarter of a million dollars according to the terms of their divorce agreement. Her attorney has claimed that Giuliani could be held in contempt of court for skipping out on the payment.  But he seems to be daunted not at all by these threats.  Last week he was merrily partying in Times Square Bar Halswell Green’s for the birthday party of Lauren Conlin, a veteran radio broadcaster, along with his current girlfriend, laughing, enjoying the band music, and even dancing.  “People were actually excited about him,” said one onlooker. “There was kind of a commotion when he arrived and then once someone asked him for a picture, a whole load of people wanted a picture. I think it probably felt like the old days for him.”  A few of the attendees even asked him whether he would consider running for office again.  Is his behavior a display of confidence in the face of adversity? an attempt to recapture the adulation he received in happier days? or simple bravado?  Who can say?

Today’s statistics as of 10:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 609,891,484; # of deaths worldwide: 6,502,640; # of cases U.S.: 96,616,505; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,072,930.

Another casualty of the assault on the Capitol – Decline in student academic scores – Defeat of Sarah Palin – The dangers of Russian hospitals – Abortion in Michigan – Evening statistics

Here is a sad story, one of collateral damage by those grand schemes of politicians who scarcely deign to notice the tools they have employed on their behalf and have been ruined in the process.  Thomas Webster, a former NYPD officer, was sentenced to ten years of prison for assaulting a police officer during the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol.  Webster broke down utterly during the sentencing, pleading the judge for mercy and adding that “I can never look at my kids the same way again. The way they look at me, it’s different now. I was their hero until Jan. 6.”   He was one of the many caught up in the orgiastic frenzy Trump orchestrated, and it is probable that, now that he has returned to a state of sobriety, he is fully aware of his culpability in doing so:  he was, until recently, a police officer himself, with a record of 20 years of service.  Whatever the outcome may be for any of the other participants, he will almost certainly emerge from his sentence a broken man, possibly impoverished, certainly destitute in reputation amongst his friends and his relatives. 

But when, oh when, will retribution overtake Trump himself?  It is long overdue.

Speaking of collateral damage, there is some from the pandemic I have not yet mentioned.  For the first time since the National Assessment of Educational Progress tests began tracking student achievement in the 1970s, 9-year-olds lost ground in math, and scores in reading fell by the largest margin in more than 30 years.  How can it be otherwise?  The education process has been continually disrupted by the pandemic, with students being obliged to vacate their classrooms and attempt to learn via Internet and via Zoom in particular – and, as I mentioned in an earlier entry, not all children take readily to this mode of instruction.  Scores in reading, and especially math, have generally trended upward or held steady since the test was first administered in the early 1970s.  The late 1990s to the mid-2000s in particular was a period of strong progress.  Over the last decade, scores had leveled off, with an increasing gap between the highest-performing students and the low-performing students.  The pandemic has exacerbated this issue.  It has been estimated that the low-performing students would require about 36 weeks (9 months) of additional instruction to make up for the ground they have lost.

Sarah Palin – she who played the role of John the Baptist to Trump’s – but I suppose I should not push this analogy too far.  Where was I?  Oh, yes – Sarah Palin has expressed stunned disbelief upon hearing the news of her defeat in the special election to fill the state’s only House seat to Mary Peltola, who is not only a Democrat but who – worse still, at any rate from her point of view – is of native Alaskan descent (Yup’ik in particular).  “I mean, really?” Palin stuttered.  “Alaskans want Joe Biden and Nancy Pelosi ?”  The possibility that voters might have preferred a sober, industrious judge to a flighty, weak-minded flibbertigibbet who happened to become a Vice-Presidential candidate by sheer accident never appears to have occurred to her.  Perhaps, however, she will be able to console herself for her defeat by contemplating the views of Russia from her house.

While we are on the subject of Russia, that nation’s hospitals continue to be a source of strange fatalities.  In the spring of 2020 a number of defenestrations occurred amongst those who criticized the administration’s handling of the pandemic.  Today Lukoil Chairman Ravil Maganov died after falling from a window of the Central Clinical Hospital in Moscow.  Lukoil is Russia’s second-largest producer of oil, and Maganov was one of the few industrial business heads who criticized Putin’s involvement in Ukraine.  As I have said repeatedly, those who criticize Putin’s regime in his own country would do well to avoid hospital windows.

The state of Mishegoss¹ – no, I should say, Michigan – has decreed that so controversial a matter as abortion should not be allowed to be decided by mere commoners.  A Michigan elections panel has rejected a ballot initiative which would ask voters whether abortion rights should be incorporated in the state constitution and another which concerned expanded access to voting.  Sorry, Michiganders:  this is too important an issue for the hoi polloi to have a voice in the matter.  Best to leave such decisions in the hands of the evangelists, who, of course, are much better qualified to pass judgment on such concerns than you are.

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 608,533,619; # of deaths worldwide: 6,497,947; # of cases U.S.: 96,462,062; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,072,120.

¹Mishegoss – an expressive Yiddish term meaning folly, senselessness, or lunacy.

Illness and recovery – Hiking in Shenandoah – The benefits of continued activity – Continued decline in national life expectancy – Evening statistics

It has taken an effort of will to resume writing in the journal, because directly after the return flight I became ill with the flu – not seriously, but enough to confine me indoors for a few days.  The flight was air conditioned to an unmerciful degree, aggravating the effects of the fever that developed during my travel time.  By degrees I recovered, but then my attention was occupied over the weekend, first by meeting with others for plans about the projected trip to Rocky Mountain National Park in September and then by leading a hike for the Wanderbirds. 

The hike was delightful, starting at the overlook at Jewell Hollow in Shenandoah National Park – one of the most beautiful, in my opinion, in the entire park – and descending down the Nicholson Hollow Trail to the valley close to the base of Old Rag.  The longer hike, which I led, circled around Stony Man before descending to Nicholson Hollow.  We lunched at the Little Stony Man overlook, with its 180-degree to the west into the Shenandoah Valley and its bird’s-eye view of Luray.  The foliage remains unusually green for this time of year, on account of the abundance of rain this summer.  Along the Nicholson Hollow Trail there is a swimming hole that features a little waterfall, so that it is possible to swim towards it and position oneself underneath it.  The water pounding on one’s shoulders has something of the effect of a massage. 

It would appear that activity of this nature contributes to one’s general health well into old age, which should come as a surprise to no one.  The explanation is somewhat complicated.  For a long time it was thought that human cells could replicate more or less indefinitely.  This assumption was challenged by Leonard Hayflick, who discovered the principle of cell senescence in 1960.  The discovery came as a result of an accident.  Dr. Hayflick was cultivating human fetal cells for a project on cancer biology, when he noticed that they stopped dividing after about 50 population doublings.  Although cell cultures often fail on account of factors such as contamination, he discovered that these cell cultures had all stopped dividing at the same point.  This phenomenon eventually was called “the Hayflick limit.”

Cell senescence actually provides a useful function.  Senescent cells suppress the development of cancer by limiting the capacity of cells to keep dividing. It happens throughout our lives, triggered by DNA damage and the shortening of telomeres, structures that cap and protect the ends of chromosomes. Senescent cells also play a role in wound healing, embryonic development, and childbirth.  Unfortunately, when they become too numerous they begin to manifest themselves in the form of old-related diseases (Alzheimer’s in particular).  Our immune system becomes less effective in eliminating senescent cells as we become older, but it appears that regular and vigorous exercise is the best way to keep our immune system efficient in this respect.  It may not make us live longer, but it will help us to be less prone towards the age-related diseases that are now affecting a substantial amount of our populace.

Actually our level of life expectancy has dropped still further in 2021, the second year in a row that this has happened.  During the years of 2020 and 2021, the average lifespan of Americans has diminished by nearly three years.  COVID is largely to blame, but it is not the only factor.  The suicide rate is now on the rise, as is the number of drug overdoses. The suicide rate had actually fallen in 2020, as often happens in early phases of wars and long-term natural disasters; but over the past year suicides have steadily increased.  COVID has also affected our mortality rate in indirect ways.  Many have been subjected to prolonged periods of enforced inactivity after contracting the disease, in correlation, and deaths from heart-related have risen over the past two years.  Again, alcoholism has increased, resulting in a greater number of deaths from liver disease.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 607,791,123; # of deaths worldwide: 6,494,899; # of cases U.S.: 96,343,913; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,071,415.

I took another journey this past week, but a domestic trip, not an international one.  The purpose, primarily, was to attend a Laurel and Hardy Convention.  I am not as much a diehard fan as some of the other attendees are, but they are iconic figures of American film comedy and, in addition, the conventions are grand social events, enabling attendees to meet friends from various part of the country whom they otherwise might not have an occasion to meet for months or even years.

The convention took place in Albuquerque, NM, and I traveled there by airplane.  Although domestic travel is a good deal less complicated than international travel, travel by airplane remains travail.  It simplified matters that I was using carry-on luggage, with none to check in, and that I departed from Reagan National Airport rather than from Dulles.  The flights were on time and I encountered none of the frustrations that I met with on my previous international flights.  But flight routes have diminished over the past several years.  Previously direct flights from Washington to Albuquerque were available; none exist now.  I had to use flights with layovers in Atlanta both coming and going.  The airport at Atlanta is very efficiently run and the ongoing journey, at least, had no particular complications.  Going back was another matter.  The layover was originally only 35 minutes; and since boarding for flights closes 15 minutes before flight departure time, that left only 20 minutes for deplaning, locating the gate for the connection, and scurrying to that gate in time to board.  Fortunately the flight to Atlanta arrived early.  I would have missed my connection had it simply been on time, for it took 15 minutes to deplane. 

The convention took place from Thursday (the 18^th) and ended on Sunday.  I flew in on Tuesday (the 16^th) and left on the following Monday to allow myself some leisure in addition to the convention activities.  There was little to do on Tuesday evening except to have dinner and stroll about the Old Town for a bit (the hotel is on the outskirts of Old Town).  On Wednesday I drove to the trailhead for the La Luz Trail and went up to the Sandia Summit.  This trail starts out with a continual but very moderate upward angle and is relatively clear of rocks for the first five miles.  Then it becomes steeper and its switchbacks pass to and fro a talus for about 2½ miles. After that the trail reaches the ridgeline and ends in a junction, with one trail going to the summit and the other going to a tramway.  The trail to the summit is about ¾ mile and is slightly steeper than the preceding trail, but not excessively so.  I had done this route several years earlier and I remembered this last portion as being particularly difficult.  But I suppose I have become accustomed to steep trails over the years, for this time it did not appear especially taxing.  Ironically the best views were not on the summit, where clouds were gathering, but at various overlooks several hundred feet lower.  The entire city of Albuquerque can be seen on the plain below, as well as the cinder volcanoes and Mount Taylor in the distance.  I completed the hike in about 2½ hours – not too bad, when one considers that the total ascent is about 3775 feet. 

I had started early and thus it was not quite 10:30 when I completed the ascent.  I went along the ridgeline in a more leisurely fashion; it is slightly under 2 miles to the tramway if one sticks to the trail, but I detoured from time to time in order to stop at various overlooks and to visit the Kiwanis Cabin midway between the tram and the summit.  From there I took the tram down towards Tramway Rd. and, after getting of the tram, went along the Tramway Trail to a junction with the La Luz Trail, located about 1 mile from the latter’s trailhead, and descended back to the parking area.  This last section is about 4 miles in all and adds another 1200 feet or so of elevation gain (the tram descends to a point considerably lower than that of the La Luz trailhead), so it made for a full day.

I have said the convention began on Thursday, but there actually was a preliminary welcoming event where the attendees gathered at the hotel’s courtyard attached to its restaurant.  Here an overview was given of the upcoming events and, more importantly, attendees had an opportunity to meet with one another, in many cases “catching up” with each other’s activities since the previous convention, which took place four years ago.  Normally the conventions are held at 2-year intervals, but the one originally scheduled for 2020 was canceled on account of the pandemic. 

And, indeed, the convention itself provided a reminder that the pandemic is not yet behind us.  One of the attendees developed symptoms shortly after deplaning and traveling to the hotel.  He administered a self-test and the results came out positive, which resulted in his being confined to his room during the entirety of the convention, not emerging until Sunday, when his illness had subsided.

There was little to do on Thursday morning, which I spent swimming in the hotel’s pool.  We had a picnic, along with various games, in the courtyard.  Then attendees partook of one of three activities (they had to make their choice of the three beforehand, during convention registration).  The choices were going up to the Sandia Mountains on the tramway, taking the crest caravan with a visit to Tinkertown Museum, or visiting Santa Fe.  I was not particularly interested in Tinkertown, which appeared to me to present artwork of a very Disneyfied version of the Old West.  I like Santa Fe very much, but the ride from Albuquerque is about 90 minutes each way, which would have left less than 3 hours for going through the city.  The ridgeline of the Sandia Mountains provides a network of trails in addition to the ones I have traversed the day before (the trail along the spine itself is 26 miles), so I was looking forward to sampling some of these.

But it was a washout.  The slight cloud covering I had encountered the day before at the ridgeline had become denser and stormier, punctuated by thunder and lightning, and the tram operators, of course, would not run the tram under such conditions.  We waited for about an hour, at which point the tour guides decided that it would be best to cut our losses and return to the city.  We did stop on the way at a produce market (the Fruit Basket, as it is called) of some fame in the city and saw a demonstration of how chili peppers were roasted.  So it was not a complete loss, but on the whole it was a disappointing outcome.

After dinner I attended an Author’s Panel, in which authors of various film books discussed the subject matter of their works, and then I saw showings of Laurel and Hardy movies:  Way Out West and The Battle of the Century.  Way Out West is considered one of the best films Laurel and Hardy did, and many argue that it is their supreme achievement.  I would not go so far as to advance that claim for it, but it is perfect as far as it goes:  a plotline that is simple, but which never comes across as padded, several musical numbers that provide a showcase for Hardy’s beautiful singing voice and the dancing skills of both of them, an admirable supporting cast (James Finlayson, as the villainous bartender, particularly excels in this film).  The Battle of the Century is of course a much slighter work; and, until recently, could be seen only in a mutilated form.  There is still about a minute and a half of footage missing, but most of the material previously considered lost has happily been located and restored.

On Friday morning we heard presentations from Randy Skretvedt, the author of numerous books on vintage films and, in particular, of “Laurel and Hardy: The Magic Behind the Movies,” the standard reference work on the subject; and from Mike Jones, a member of one of the British “tents” (as the local chapters of the society are called), who discussed how various locations in the northeast of England provide traces of Stan Laurel’s past.  Both were interesting but the latter especially, at least to me; part of Jones’s presentation focused on Ulverston, Laurel’s birthplace, which brought back fond memories of a visit there I had made during a previous convention.

Following that we enjoyed a contest in which some of the more knowledgeable attendees played “Video Jeopardy,” in which they would be given photos of stills from films – but only portions of them – and then identify the film from which they were taken.  I also participated in a “Soup to Nuts” relay in which team members, one at a time, viewed a table setting and then attempted to reconstruct it when moving out of its sight.  The setting was a complicated one, full of tongue-in-cheek references to various films (a tiny playing card, for example, stood for the dinner cards used at place settings for formal dinners at that time) and it took several attempts of the team members to get it right.  It wasn’t until I noticed that the cap for the pepper shaker was unscrewed halfway and I replicated that feature on our reproduction that the judges accepted it as complete.

We had dinner on our own and then went to the Kimo Theater in downtown Albuquerque, a wonderful example of the adobe-style Pueblo Revival Architecture, replete with decorations along the walls with artwork in the indigenous style.  The presentation began with a skit by Laurel and Hardy impersonators Jeffrey Weissman and E. E. Bell.  Frankly, I found it rather thin, but my opinion of these two performers went up on the following day, when they discussed their careers in playing their respective roles.  Afterwards we viewed several films on the screen, where they showed to better advantage than on home projectors.  The films were Towed in the Hole, Sons of the Desert, One Good Turn, Helpmates, and Busy Bodies.  All of these are delightful.

Sons of the Desert, of course, is described as the iconic Laurel and Hardy film; the fraternal organization for which these conventions are provided takes its name from the film’s title.  It is actually in some ways atypical of Laurel and Hardy feature films, being somewhat faster in pace than most of them and providing a dimension to the female characters not often seen in the other L&H films, in which the wife figures are simply shrews or vixens.  It is undoubtedly one of their funniest; and not only are the comic duo at the top of their form, but the other major members of the supporting cast – Charley Chase, Mae Busch, and Dorothy Christy – give standout performers. 

On Saturday a trivia contest was held, with four teams of three members each participating, after which Jeffrey Weissman and E. E. Bell, the impersonators we had seen last night, spoke about their experiences in the course of participating in reconstructions of Laurel and Hardy routines.  Both of their accounts were fascinating, and they gave an insight into the entertainment industry obscured by the wild antics and the heavily publicized acts of charity of the well-known Hollywood stars.  I am bound to say that this second tier of industrious actors and actresses who do not receive the exaggerated acclaim of our top movie stars appears to be by far the more wholesome and the more prepossessing of the two.

After lunch some of us watched two films that were of historical interest:  the Spanish version of Pardon Us, followed by We Faw Down.  For a time Roach Studios created foreign-language versions of their films for export, with Laurel and Hardy and some of the supporting actors supplying the dialogue in French, Spanish, German, or Italian.  The Spanish version of Pardon Us is the only foreign-language version of that film that has survived. 

The interest it affords is historical rather than intrinsic.  Pardon Us was the first Laurel and Hardy full-length feature, but it was not the happiest of debuts.  It is in fact a thoroughly unpleasant film, with the prison scenes accomplishing the difficult feat of making the penal system of the day appear even more abusive than it was in reality.  Moreover, it is bogged down by an interlude in which Laurel and Hardy, after escaping prison, daub their faces with mud and take refuge in a cotton plantation to hide among the African-American farmhands.  This sequence is not, to be sure, overtly offensive in the manner of a similar scene in the Marx Brothers’ “Day at the Races”:  Laurel and Hardy simply mingle among the other farm workers and no racial jokes are made.  But it is repellent nonetheless.  The workers happily sing minstrel songs as they work (for ten minutes on end, a fairly significant fraction of a 70-minute film), and the implication is that they are thoroughly contented and could ask for no better living conditions.  What possible need could these cheerful menials have for opportunities of education or for voting rights?

We Faw Down, by way of contrast, is a pleasant bit of fluff.  It is of interest, however, because it provides the basic plot of the much more elaborate Sons of the Desert:  Laurel and Hardy as husbands having an errant night out, only to have their cover story disproved by a disaster overtaking the place that they were claiming to be during their absence from home.  

In the evening we dined together at a banquet, after which several members performed a version of the Match Game, in which the “stars” for whom the contestants attempted to match answers were characters from various L&H films and the judges were Laurel and Hardy themselves.  This was very well-done.  Much of it, of course, had been rehearsed in advance, but the two members who had been selected as contestants had not been coached beforehand and thus their answers to the host’s questions were improvised.  It was a wonderful way to conclude the evening.

The following morning featured a farewell brunch, during which tributes were given to the performers in the films. 

Reactions of Trump’s followers to the FBI search of Mar-a-Lago – The Wanderbirds on the Potomac Heritage Trail – Evening statistics

In 1938 J. R. R. Tolkien was in negotiations with Berlin publisher Rütten & Loening about creating a German-language edition of The Hobbit.  At one point, however, they asked for proof of Tolkien’s “Aryan descent,” due to Goebbels’ regulations on Jews’ participation in German cultural activities. Tolkien indignantly refused to comply and the deal fell through as a result.  Three years later he wrote a letter to his son Michael, in which he said “I have in this war a burning private grudge against that ruddy little ignoramus Adolf Hitler. Ruining, perverting, misapplying, and making for ever accursed, that noble northern spirit, a supreme contribution to Europe, which I have ever loved, and tried to present in its true light.”  Long before opposition to Hitler became fashionable, Tolkien foresaw, and he unfortunately was quite correct in his prediction, that German culture would be forever tainted by association with Hitler.  I mention this episode because I am haunted by fears that we are entering a similar situation at the current time, and that the American heritage will be forever tainted by association with Donald Trump.

Today Senator Rand Paul has called for the repeal of the Espionage Act after the FBI search on Trump’s home in Mar-a-Lago discovered numerous caches of classified documents there.  What is disturbing is not the behavior of Trump himself.  Mendacious, vicious, unprincipled egomaniacs are to be found in every nation and every generation.  What is disturbing is the effect on his followers.  I know that I have repeated myself on this point many times, but I must iterate this attitude yet again:  what spell has this man woven over his adherents that can induce them to sacrifice the best interests of themselves and their country to suit Trump’s convenience?  Paul’s reaction is typical:  Donald Trump has broken the country’s laws, and some of its most fundamental ones – therefore, the laws must be repealed. Nothing too heinous or, for that matter, too ridiculous can shake their obsessive devotion to this juggernaut.  Paul is far from unique:  in Arizona an armed protest was held today against the FBI, with protestors waving signs whose slogans called for the assassination of federal government employees.  If Trump were to announce that the gods must be appeased by a ceremony that sacrifices virgins by hurling them into a pool of molten lava, they would immediately scan the ranks of American young women to cull out the likeliest victims.

Trump’s dominant role is all the more surprising for the complete absence of those qualities that ordinarily would appeal to voters.  Coarse and unprepossessing in feature, graceless and ungainly in build, infirm in temper, boorish in manner, harsh in voice, clumsy and incoherent in speech – such are his surface characteristics; for the rest, he has had a long history of cheating workmen out of their pay, betraying his business associates, abusing any woman who was unfortunate and incautious enough to get involved with him, turning on his closest friends and associates without warning.  What can others see in such a man?  It seems to me that I were to be introduced to any man like him, I would afterwards strive to avoid him as I would an infectious disease; and yet by some mysterious means he is able to inspire a fervid devotion among his followers that the most charming and able of political leaders must envy.  Doubtless many Germans and Italians in the 1930s experienced stupefaction similar to mine as the Fascists came into power, bewilderedly wondering what appeal Hitler and Mussolini could possibly provide for so many of their compatriots; but that does not make this burden any easier to bear.

Thankfully I’m still able to find refuge in other activities.  I went today with the Wanderbirds on the Potomac Heritage Trail from Algonkian to Great Falls.  The weather was perfect, warm but not overly hot or humid, and the river scenery contained an abundance of avian wildlife, including a pair of cormorants surveying the river for prey with Trumpian intensity.  The bus ride recaptured the past experience of riding with the Wanderbirds in a manner that the previous bus hikes did not:  it was somewhat fuller (the numbers are still low, but at any rate the bus was half-full), with a greater number of regulars, and with animated discussions ongoing during the ride among various groups of passengers.  I must not despair of the club eventually being restored to its former condition.  During a meeting with the Board to discuss measures for recruiting hikers, AD reminded the group that the club had undergone a much more severe crisis in the 1990s, when it was unclear from one week to the next whether it would have sufficient funds for a bus hike and there was a real possibility of the club’s dissolution.  Matters may be improving as the weather moderates and as fewer members of the club are on travel for the summer months.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 595,056,244; # of deaths worldwide: 6,454,322; # of cases U.S.: 94,688,168; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,062,343.

Long COVID – How will the pandemic end? – Southern Shenandoah National Park – Evening statistics

COVID has been with us for two years, and now the effects of long COVID are becoming more apparent.  About 6% of those affected by COVID will never recover their sense of smell and taste.  About 13.3% of COVID patients will take a month or longer for their symptoms to resolve.  It is difficult to predict recovery times because COVID affects so many different organs:  nerves, lungs, and heart in particular.  The CDC says that 2.5% of COVID patients are predicted to have lingering side-effects, including but not limited to difficulty breathing, muscle pain, and trouble concentrating, for three months or more.  Other, more troubling symptoms have emerged in some cases as well:  amnesia, apraxia (inability to perform familiar movements), bowel incontinence, erectile dysfunction, hallucinations, and limb-swelling. 

“I would never have expected, you know, in the middle of summer in a heatwave, we would have a surge in cases two and a half years into this pandemic,” said Dr. Scott Roberts, associate professor and associate medical director for infection prevention at Yale School of Medicine.  It’s becoming clear that the pandemic will not “end” in the sense of the virus no longer affecting a large number of people.  The virus will continue to mutate and new variants will continue to emerge:  probably, if the recent trend continues to hold, in cycles of two months or so.  Rather than the pandemic ending upon a specific calendar date, the most likely scenario is the gradual shift to “more of this endemic response,” according to Neysa Ernst, nurse manager for the Johns Hopkins Biocontainment Unit.  Already COVID is no longer overwhelming hospitals or interfering to any great extent with travel plans.  Dr. Taison Bell, assistant professor of medicine in the divisions of infectious diseases and international health and pulmonary and critical care medicine at the University of Virginia, said that over time COVID “will become much more of a nuisance rather than something that’s a potential death sentence in a small percentage of people.”  It is difficult to predict when such a state of affairs will occur; Bell’s estimate is that it will take two-to-four years “to get to the long-term steady state.”  According to Roberts, we probably will not reach true endemicity until 2024. 

In the meantime one does what one can to stave illness off by staying as active as possible – at any rate, I do.  Today I was in the southern region of Shenandoah National Park, hiking in the Turk Mountain area, a lovely location that I don’t often have the opportunity to see through my hiking clubs.  The drive is a rather longer than most people are willing to undertake, and indeed it was tiring to drive back for more than two hours after having hiked a dozen miles.  I may have to arrange to stay overnight in Waynesboro or Staunton if I wish to explore the area further.  The views in the southern part of SNP are somewhat different than those further north:  the summits are a bit lower but they contain several rock outcroppings whose bare surfaces contrast vividly with the green forest foliage.  The southern area of the park also tends to be less crowded than the northern and central sections, since it is not as easy to reach from the greater DC metro area.  Even though the elevation was lower than that of, for example, the Hawksbill area, it was high enough for the temperatures to remain in the 70s for the entire day – very refreshing after the torrid temperatures earlier this week, especially in the lowlands.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 594,549,458; # of deaths worldwide: 6,453,284; # of cases U.S.: 94,678,926; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,062,333.

A funeral – The relaxed attitude towards mask-wearing – The COVID “plateau” – The enforced delivery of a dead fetus – The sequel of the FBI search of Mar-a-Lago – Evening statistics

Today I attended the funeral of EP, She had been a member of the Wanderbirds and, although I did not know her very well, I felt that some members of the club should have been present.  I’m sorry now that I did not get to know her better, for she was by all accounts a most extraordinary person:  fluent in six languages, a respected figure on Capitol Hill (she worked for the Library of Congress as a specialist in foreign law), and an accomplished musician, excelling both at singing and piano-playing..  Whenever her relatives and friends spoke of her, their features brightened with animation and a delighted laugh came to their voices.  She had strength of will as well:  she had become rather frail during her last years, but she came to the club hikes on a continual basis, even after the pandemic intervened with the bus hikes and forced the club to resort to carpooling instead. 

The ceremony was of interest for another reason.  I and the other two members of the Wanderbirds who attended were the only ones wearing face masks.  The church where the service was held was very spacious and the attendees were not crowded together at close quarters; but it still was a striking illustration of how relaxed people have become in such matters.  The CDC has become very tentative in its recommendations.  Currently about 35% of counties in the U.S. are designated at the “high” level for risk of COVID, 40% are “medium,” and 25% are “low.”  At this point the CDC is not explicitly recommending masks for anyone living in a low-level county and only for the immuno-compromised in a medium-level county.  Fairfax County is currently rated as low, but many of its neighbors are not:  Arlington is rated as medium and both Montgomery and Prince Georges are rated as high.  Given the amount of interaction between residents of these counties, it is only a matter of time that Fairfax’s rating will change, and not for the better.

We have been on a COVID “plateau” for several weeks, with something over 40,000 hospitalizations and about 400 deaths per day over the last month or so.  These numbers are certainly an improvement over the ones of the past winter, when the hospitalizations were four times that amount and the daily death toll could easily reach 2,500; but they are still disappointingly high.  The new variants and sub-variants are certainly less deadly than their predecessors, but they account for a death toll more than twice as high as the flu has attained in its worst seasons. 

“What will Ofwarren give birth to?  A baby, as we all hope?  Or something else, an Unbaby, with a pinhead or a snout like a dog’s, or two bodies, or a hole in its heart or no arms, or webbed hands and feet?  There’s no telling.  They could tell once, with machines, but that is now outlawed.  What would be the point of knowing, anyway?  You can’t have them taken out; whatever it is must be carried to term.”

Margaret Atwood’s The Handmaid’s Tale, which appeared to be a dystopian fantasy when it was first published in 1985, has become sober fact.  Dr. Valerie Williams, an OB-GYN in New Orleans, was prevented from performing a dilation and evacuation (an abortion procedure) to remove a non-viable fetus from a patient whose water broke while she was 16 weeks pregnant.  The pregnant woman was already traumatized from her experience and felt that an induction, which would require labor and delivery of the fetus, would be too much for her.  But the hospital lawyer said that it was too risky from a legal point of view to perform the operation, because nearly all abortions now are banned in Louisiana.  So she was forced to go through an hours-long labor to deliver a non-viable fetus, which of course was dead long before it emerged from the womb, despite the woman’s own declared wishes and despite the medical advice given to her.  She hemorrhaged about a liter of blood in the process.  I am somewhat puzzled, in reading about cases such as these (and they are legion), to explain how the people who have crafted the laws that create such situations can describe themselves as “pro-life.”

As a result of their search at Mar-a-Lago, the FBI has removed eleven sets of classified documents.  Somewhat oddly, Trump did not oppose Merrick Garland’s release of the search warrant.  Up to this point he has been reacting along predictable lines, vilifying the Department of Justice and claiming that the FBI agents planted evidence; but for the moment, at least, he seems to realize that mere denials are not going to resolve his difficulties.  This episode, however, does not appear to have dented his stranglehold on the Republican Party in the slightest.  Rep. Troy Nehls of Texas – who formerly was a sheriff – has openly attacked the Department of Justice and the FBI, while yesterday the Ohio police were engaged in an hours-long standoff, and eventually a fatal one, with an armed man clad in body armor who tried to breach the FBI’s Cincinnati office.  The party is now encouraging its most vicious elements to grow unchecked, while its ablest exponents are immediately expelled from their ranks at the first sign of a humane passion. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide 593,861,995; # of deaths worldwide: 6,451,212; # of cases U.S.: 94,643,632; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,062,151.

Various political matters (not pleasant to linger upon, but unavoidable) – Evening statistics

Normally I go hiking with the Vigorous Hikers on Tuesdays but today I had to forego this pastime on account of an appointment with my financial advisor.  Indeed I was not sorry for an excuse to remain indoors most of the day, for it was very hot and oppressive. Thus this entry focuses more on political than personal concerns.

Matters are not going well for Trump and his adherents.  Today Rudy Giuliani was supposed to appear in Atlanta in response to a subpoena in the Fulton County investigation of the pressurizing of Georgia’s Secretary of State to tamper with the state’s ballot in the 2020 election.  Yesterday Giuliani filed an emergency application to postpone his appearance. His lawyers cited a doctor who said Giuliani is unfit for air travel following a heart stent operation earlier this summer.  But today Fulton County Judge Robert McBurney, who is overseeing the special grand jury, ordered Giuliani to appear for grand jury testimony on Aug. 17^th, saying that if Giuliani is unable to take an airplane flight he can travel by car or bus.  William Thomas, Giuliani’s attorney, said that the district attorney has not responded to questions as to whether Giuliani is also a target.  To judge from his reluctance to appear in court, Giuliani certainly believes that he will not fare well in this investigation and will doubtless continue to try to wriggle out of appearing in the courtroom for as long as he can.

And Trump himself is now being subjected to some legal embarrassment.  Specifically, the FBI is currently searching his Mar-a-Lago residence to determine whether or not he stored any classified documents there after leaving the Oval Office. 

As a matter of course, Republicans such as Kevin McCarthy, Rick Scott, and Marco Rubio are claiming that Trump is the victim of political conspiracy, conveniently ignoring the fact that Christopher Wray, the FBI Director, is a Trump appointee who has been in his position for five years, and also ignoring the fact that when Hilary Clinton, Trump’s opponent in the 2016 election, was accused of similar charges, Trump was among the most vehement in his condemnation of her, even going to the extent of firing James Comey, the FBI Director at the time, for pursuing the matter with insufficient zeal.  Andrew McCabe, a former Deputy Director of FBI, commented that the agency would not have undertaken such a drastic step if Trump had merely forgotten to remove a few documents from his personal belongings; they must have received some indication of willful violation on his part if they are prepared to proceed to such lengths.

Unsurprising also, but depressing, is that one of these would-be vindicators of the party’s brazen idol is  . . . Mike Pence.  The man whose execution was expressly urged by Trump’s adherents was among the first to demand an accounting from Merrick Garland and to write that “the appearance of continued partisanship by the Justice Department must be addressed.”  He forgets that an independent federal judge had to sign off on the warrant after establishing that FBI agents had shown probable cause before they could descend on Trump’s home.  Or rather, he has forgotten that a man ought to be able to stand upright on two legs and instead prefers to grovel on all four limbs, so desperate is he to curry favor with the extremists of the GOP party.

There are two encouraging factors in this new episode:  first, that Mitch McConnell has taken some care to distance himself from Trump, on the grounds that his attention is occupied with flood victims in his state of Kentucky, and, better still, Trump is currently in New York and thus unable physically to interfere with the agents’ search. 

Biden is providing cause for concern as well.  Today he made a speech from the South Lawn, just before signing the CHIPS and Science Act.  This act is a major legislative victory for the administration, but its triumph was diminished by the fact that the President was continuously coughing throughout his address, despite repeated doses of water and cough drops.  He also appeared, after shaking hands with Chuck Schumer, to have forgotten that he had done so a bare five minutes afterwards, extending his hand for a second time and apparently nonplussed when Schumer did not respond.  Biden has twice tested negative after having had a bout of COVID. White House physician Dr. Kevin O’Connor declared this past Sunday that Biden has fully recovered and could “safely return to public engagement and presidential travel,” His performance today, however, did not inspire confidence.  He has previously suffered from asthma, and his symptoms could simply be the result of this underlying condition, but the possibility of long COVID cannot be ruled out. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  590,801,306; # of deaths worldwide: 6,440,702; # of cases U.S.: 94,114,447; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,059,582.

Pauses in the journal — COVID here and abroad — Long COVID — The approach to the endemic phase — Surface serenity while hiking — Evening statistics

Another hiatus in this journal, for similar reasons.  My time has been filled up. I led hikes on July 31^st and yesterday as well, while I scouted for a third hike on the 6^th.  During the middle of last week I visited friends in New Jersey, where access to a workstation was limited.  Then, too, the amount of COVID-related events has greatly diminished over the past several months.  One might easily suppose that the pandemic is over at last.

That, however, is a delusion.  COVID is still with us.  For example, we received two cancellations for the hike yesterday, one upon learning that he tested positive the day for the hike, and one who had to cancel because his son had contracted the disease and, to use his own words, “it was just a matter of time” before he would become infected himself.  At the hike yesterday, LH remarked that she knew hardly anyone who had not fallen ill with COVID at one time or another.  As far as I know, I have not had the disease myself, but I can’t be certain.  If I have contracted the disease without symptoms at one point in the past, there is no way of detecting that now.  I have been vaccinated and received boosters as well, so the antibodies would be present if I were to take a test. 

In other parts of the world, COVID is still wreaking havoc.  China has just locked down Hainan Island, a popular resort location that is sometimes known as “China’s Hawaii.”  Some 80,000 tourists are stranded in the resort town of Sanya, where they are required to stay for seven days and clear five COVID tests before leaving.. 

However, we can always turn to the example of North Korea for consolation.  Recently its government has announced that all of its COVID patients have recovered, marking the end of its first wave of the pandemic. State media has said the “anti-epidemic situation has entered a definite phase of stability.”  It also is offering a bridge in Brooklyn for sale – no, wait, I made that last part up.

The effects of long COVID are now starting to become apparent.  Many are unable to resume their old jobs even after recovering from the disease.  Some estimates place the number of people too greatly weakened by long COVID to recover their former lifestyle in the millions.  A typical example is Georgia Linders, who fell ill with COVID two years ago and who still labors under debilitating symptoms to this day:  heartbeat suddenly accelerating for no apparent reason, bouts of fever on an almost daily basis, continual fatigue, brain fog.  She had to be terminated from her position (which coordinated health services for the military) because her productivity rate dropped to about a quarter of what her co-workers were doing, even though she had previously excelled at her profession.  Recent data from the CDC suggests that one person in every five infected with COVID are suffering from long COVID.  Based on data from the Census Bureau, the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, and the Lancet, Katie Bach, a senior fellow with the Brookings Institution, estimates that 4 million former full-time employees are out of work because of long COVID, about 2.4% of the American workforce.

James McDeavitt, the vice president and dean of clinical affairs at Baylor College of Medicine, claims that we are now entering the endemic phase and that in fact this phase may already have begun.  “It’s going to be with us for the long-term like flu is with us for the long-term,” he said.  Although COVID test rates have increased, hospitalizations and death rates have not.  About 99% of COVID patients in ICUs are unvaccinated.  Therapeutic treatments such as Paxlovid are becoming more effective.  COVID is thus settling down into a disease whose status resembles that of influenza, although with somewhat mlore extensive consequences.  Flu kills between 20,000 and 80,000 Americans a year. McDeavitt expects COVID to settle in around 100,000 deaths per year and to remain a top-ten cause of death in the country.

It seems strange that all of this turmoil has no apparent effect on one’s daily tasks and leisure activities.  Everything I see during the course of my recent wanderings looks as tranquil as ever.  Indeed, the mountain forests are unusually green for this time of year as a result of the abundance of rain this summer (generally the driest season in the area).  From the Jewell Hollow Overlook of Shenandoah National Park, where I and my two co-leaders scouted our hike planned for the 28^th, there was none of the usual browning and withering of tree leaves in the summer heat:  the Shenandoah Valley spread out below us, with the Massanuttens on the valley’s western edge and the Alleghanies beyond, dotted with the houses and buildings of the town of Luray, looking positively Alpine.  Yesterday’s hike, which covered the Appalachian Trail from Weverton to Turner’s Gap (about 14 miles), was densely shaded throughout.  I may say that the hike yesterday was the easiest of them all to lead; only one other person elected to take this longer option (the others started from Gathland, which is 7½ miles from Turner’s Gap), which meant that we could hike together and that there was no need for me to pause to lay down markers at junctions.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  589,856,088; # of deaths worldwide: 6,437,895; # of cases U.S.: 93,962,966; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,058,891.