Author: betula54

A dramatic example of our aging infrastructure – Sarah Palin’s COVID test – Donald Trump’s pending photo book – A new food study – An endangered nation – Evening statistics

As part of President Biden’s plan to promote his drive to rebuild the U.S. infrastructure, he has scheduled a visit to various cities to give a public speech on the matter, starting with an arrival at Pittsburgh today.  As if on cue, a two-lane bridge in Pittsburgh abruptly collapsed at 6:00 this morning, injuring ten people and caused a massive natural gas leak, which prompted the temporary evacuation of several families from their homes until it was brought under control.  This country certainly has many aging bridges, whose support will become increasingly precarious.  Pennsylvania alone has 3,198 bridges rated as being in poor condition. 

Sarah Palin has tested positive for COVID and has been spotted dining indoors at least two restaurants after learning of the test results.  Mayor Eric Adams’ office urged people who had come across her to get tested – for, as everyone knows, stupidity can be extremely contagious.

The publication of Donald Trump’s upcoming photo book has hit a snag.  Winning Team Publishing, its publisher, has encountered difficulties in obtaining sufficient ink, paper, and leather for the number of copies already ordered.  During an interview on Fox News Trump publicly bewailed the incompetence of the publisher in mismanaging such matters – as well he might, considering that one of the firm’s co-founders is . . . Donald Trump Jr.  I am bound to say that it is a great satisfaction to learn that Trump is as ready to abuse his immediate relatives as he does his subordinates, his employees, his business associates, his ex-wives, his discarded mistresses, his friends, his acquaintances, his political allies, and just about anyone else who crosses his path in the long term.

Researchers at the University have conducted a study that found that eating large amounts of cheese did not lead to elevated levels of LDL cholesterol, as has been previously thought.  The study found those who ate low-fat dairy products actually had higher cholesterol than those who didn’t. In fact, the results showed that higher dairy intake was linked with having lower body mass index, lower percentage of body fat, lower waist size, and lower blood pressure.  It may be recalled that a few months ago the Mayo clinic warned seniors over 65 to avoid soft cheeses such as Brie, camembert, and so on.  But that is the reassuring thing about studies such as these; if one sort of food is declared to be harmful, or to be beneficial for that matter, a new study emerges to contradict such a finding sooner or later.  It is possible, on account of the perpetual confusion as to what to ingest and what to avoid, that there may even be a reaction of favor of eating food that is flavorful and appetizing, a phenomenon that this country has not known for decades.   

A group of Mormon missionaries recently landed in the remote archipelago of Kiribati and there they proceeded, if not to spread the faith, at any rate to spread the disease.  Kiribati closed its borders in early 2020 and thereby was able to prevent the occurrence of any COVID cases during the entirety of the pandemic up to this time.  Kiribati finally began reopening this month, allowing the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints to charter a plane to bring home 54 of the island nation’s citizens. Many of those aboard were missionaries who had left Kiribati before the border closure.  More than half the passengers tested positive for the virus, which has now slipped out into the community and prompted the government to declare a state of disaster.  An initial 36 positive cases from the flight has ballooned to 181 cases today, a substantial number for a nation that contains about 120,000 people.  Only about a third of the population are fully vaccinated and the islands contain few intensive care beds at the most.  This outbreak could easily prove to be the end of Kiribati as a viable nation.  However, one must remember the Monty Python motto, “Always look on the bright side of life.”  The sea has already engulfed two of the archipelago’s islets and is projected to rise 20 inches by 2100, which would subject its entire amount of arable land to soil salination and to be largely submerged.  The government has already purchased land in the Fiji islands (about 1250 miles distant) so that the inhabitants will have a place to migrate to once the islands become unlivable.  So it is unlikely that Kiribati could have survived long in any case – and that, you know, is a consolation, as Sheridan’s Mrs. Candour would say.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 370,145,784; # of deaths worldwide: 5,667,199; # of cases U.S.: 75,235,644; # of deaths; U.S.: 905,466.

Various medical matters – Loss of a local mayor – Suicide rates during and after pandemics – Potential increase of suicides due to long COVID – Evening statistics

It was another fine sunny winter day today, clear and bracing.  Alas, I had to spend the greater part of it in doctors’ offices getting checkups, one to determine whether I needed cataract surgery and one to have a dermatologist do a routine examination for any suspicious moles, lesions, etc., that may indicate the advent of skin cancer.  I do have the beginnings of cataract but, as it turns out, these have not advanced far enough to warrant surgery at this stage, which certainly is welcome news.  The dermatologist, similarly, found nothing of concern.  “You obviously go outdoors a lot,” he remarked during the course of his inspection, and I could not deny it.   He did recommend that I wear a hat to guide myself against the sun rays – which, as it turns out, I generally do in the warmer months. 

A local tragedy has occurred:  Kevin Ward, the mayor of Hyattsville, has been found dead in Fort Marcy from a self-inflicted gunshot wound.  Up to the last day of his life, there were no hints that he was contemplating such a step.  He was a popular mayor, well-liked by those who worked with him, such as the members of the city council, and also by mayors of neighboring municipalities.  Condolences have poured in from, among others, Governor Hogan, the Prince Georges County Executive, various council members, the city’s emergency operations manager, the Upper Marlboro Mayor, and the Representative for Maryland’s Fourth District.  He had served on the city council himself twice before becoming interim mayor upon the resignation of his predecessor in 2019, and was then elected mayor last year.  He was only 44 years old and was the father of two adopted children. 

Oddly enough, suicides have not increased dramatically during the pandemic.  In general, suicide rates do not appear to go up during pandemics.  For this particular one, the overall number of suicides in 2020 was 3% lower than in 2019, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Center for Health Statistics. Suicide rates were 2% lower for males and 8% lower for females in 2020. 

It’s the period after the pandemic recedes that suicide rates tend to rise.  The prevalence of “long COVID” may prove a significant factor in this regard as the pandemic recedes.  Several sufferers from long COVID have already taken their own lives rather than drag out their remaining months in pain and debility.  One prominent example is Heidi Ferrer, already mentioned in an earlier entry.  She was a screenwriter for shows such as Dawson’s Creek and, in addition to having an extremely successful career, had an energetic, outgoing personality:  her husband described her as “sunshine in a dress.”  After she had officially “recovered” from a bout of COVID, she experienced racing heartbeat for no apparent reason, gastrointestinal issues, exhaustion from exertions as rudimentary as walking up a single flight of stairs, extreme body aches, brain fog, and numerous other ailments.  “Watching long COVID systematically take her apart, organ system by organ system,” her husband wrote, “was the most terrifying deterioration of a human being I have ever witnessed.”  It is currently unknown how prevalent long COVID is for the omicron variant, since it has emerged so recently.  But if it follows the pattern of other variants, as many as a third of those who contract the disease may be so affected – in which case, there is the potential threat of many other sufferers taking the same option to terminate a cycle of unremitting torment.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 366,535,663; # of deaths worldwide: 5,655,929; # of cases U.S.: 74,695,333; # of deaths; U.S.: 902,140.

Morven Park and Balls Bluff – Traffic tie-up on I-66 – The AARP summary of the COVID situation – A corrective episode for too much optimism – A surprising source of good news – Evening statistics

I helped RS scout a hike that he is leading on March 22^nd.  The hike is a double loop in Morven Park and Balls Bluff, both of them very appealing areas.  Even though it was colder than yesterday it was much more comfortable, being sunny, clear, and nearly windless.  Morven Park features a mansion built in the late 18^th century.  At one point it was occupied by Westmoreland Davis, who served as Governor of Virginia for 1918-22.  The grounds contain several hiking trails, including one that ascends a ridgeline and offers views of mountains to the west.  Balls Bluff is built around the site of a Civil War battlefield.  The Potomac Heritage Trail skirts alongside it and provides magnificent views of the Potomac from above.  The hike is thus of both historical and scenic interest, and it contains a surprising amount of variety within a relatively small compass.

On the way to meeting him I was held up in traffic.  An accident occurred that shut down I-66 going westbound for nearly an hour and a half.  After I returned home I scanned the news networks on the Internet for more information about it.  One would think that an accident that caused a 3-mile-long tie-up on a major traffic artery during morning rush hour would generate some headlines, but apparently such an event is not considered newsworthy.  I could not find a single outlet that even mentioned the incident.

The latest AARP Bulletin devoted some space to the current situation with respect to COVID.  The topic is certainly of interest to senior citizens, since about 90% of Americans who died from COVID were 50 or older.  Some of the article’s conclusions are not particularly surprising.  Vaccination, for instance, is strenuously recommended.  People in the 65-79 age group are 20 times as likely to die from COVID if they haven’t been vaccinated.  Natural immunity (as a result of recovering from COVID) is not to be relied upon:  it fades over time in the same manner that the immunity conferred from chickenpox in childhood fades, necessitating vaccination for shingles, a disease caused by re-emergence of the chickenpox virus.  Progress has been made in pharmaceutical remedies, but even emergency use authorization from the FDA for them is still pending.  Vaccine mandates, unpopular though they may be, have been reasonably effective.  Several, of course, refuse to take a vaccine under any circumstances,  But others, although they may be anti-vaxxers in principle, are not prepared to go so far as to lose their jobs over the matter.  United Airlines dismissed less than 1% of its employees for non-compliance.  Novant Health, a hospital system with 35,000 employees, had to dismiss only 175 of them.  In Washington state, less than 35 of the 63,000 workforce chose to quit rather than to take the vaccine. 

The factor that remains the greatest mystery is so-called “long COVID,” in which patients suffer from symptoms months after the infection has run its course.  It is apparently more common than it was previously believed to be.  One survey of 273,000 COVID survivors found that 37% had one or more COVID symptoms 3-6 months after infection.  The risk increases with age.  For people over 65, 61% had symptoms such as breathing difficulty from damaged lungs, cognitive issues (brain fog and memory), muscle pain, and fatigue.  Cameron Wolfe, an infectious disease specialist who is a professor of Duke University, admits that not much progress has been made in figuring out why some patients wind up with long COVID and others do not,.  “I can predict with some accuracy who’s going to get sick enough with COVID to wind up in the hospital.  It’s proportional to your age, your weight, to how bad your hearts or lungs are at the beginning, how bad your diabetic control is.  I have yet to find a good way of predicting who gets long COVID.  I have no idea how that pans out.”

The overall mood continues to be optimistic.  Insurers offering health plans via the Affordable Care Act marketplaces must file plans offering to justify their premiums.  The majority of these are predicting that COVID will have no effect on their 2022 costs.  That prediction would appear to be justified at any rate in the coastal regions, where most of our largest cities are located and where the vaccination rate is high.  Areas that have a vaccination rate of only 40%-50% (there are quite a number of these, mainly in the nation’s interior) are naturally more at risk.  But the aggregate number of vaccinated people is reasonably high, treatments are better, people are more likely to wear masks in situations that involve being indoors with the general public.  “We’re absolutely better,” says Wolfe, “than we were a year ago.”

All of this is very encouraging, but it will not do to be over-confident at this stage.  One recent episode may be taken as an illustration.  Christian Caberra, aged 40, contracted the virus during the Christmas holidays.  Shortly after testing positive, he was hospitalized for pneumonia in both lungs.  “I can’t breathe again,” he texted his brother, Jino Caberra. “I really regret not getting my vaccine. If I can do it all over again I would do it in a heartbeat to save my life. I’m fighting for my life here.”  His struggles were in vain; he died on January 22^nd.  Los Angeles, where Caberra lived, has been particularly hard-hit by the virus.  On January 20^th, it reported 102 deaths.  As of January 24^th, it has been facing 33,000 new infections daily.  No wonder that Dr. Barbara Ferrer, the city’s public health director, said last week:  “Let’s not fool ourselves by not recognizing the danger presented by the Omicron variant, which is capable of spreading with lightning speed and causing serious illness among our most vulnerable residents.”

There is good news from, of all of the places in the world, Myanmar.  It has reported no COVID-related deaths for three consecutive days.  Its infection rate is quite low, affecting less than 1% of the country’s population.  At this point, a citizen of Myanmar is in greater danger of being shot to death or falling victim to an airstrike by its current government than from dying of COVID; the number of civilian deaths since the military takeover is well over 1,000. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 362,859,116; # of deaths worldwide: 5,644,733; # of cases U.S.: 74,121,996; # of deaths; U.S.: 898,294.

Hiking in the Harpers Ferry area, then and now – Indicators of the “endgame” of the pandemic – Evening statistics

I went with the Vigorous Hikers on a hike in the Harpers Ferry area that begins at Schoolhouse Ridge , goes through Harpers Ferry to Maryland Heights (via a back route From Sandy Hook Rd.) and the Stone Fort, then back through Harpers Ferry along the Appalachian Trail.  We continued along the Lower Town Trail to the Harpers Ferry Visitor Center and back over Bolivar Heights to the parking area.  This hike was notable for the number of times we switched from wearing microspikes to going without them and then wearing them again.  Microspikes were advisable for many portions of the hike, particularly along the trail that descends from the Stone Fort.  But there were also parts that involved walking on asphalt or stone slabs, where they were a hindrance.  It was in the mid-to-high 30s today, and yet it felt colder than Sunday, especially in the afternoon, when a wind was blowing steadily. 

The hike brought back memories of when the group went on it nearly two years ago, in late March, 2020.  It was then the restrictions imposed by the pandemic were made unmistakably apparent.  The trailhead is in West Virginia, and the hike took place at the time that various states were issuing warnings and prohibitions against inter-state travel.  Since most of us were coming from either Maryland or Virginia, this condition aroused some concern:  did traveling to the parking area fall under the ban?  Various emails were sent about the subject among the club members, and in the end it was decided that local travel of this nature would not be penalized – an assumption that proved to be correct.  Nonetheless, the uncertainty we felt on this point was an ominous sign of what the future was to bring.

There were no such apprehensions today as we meandered through the environs of that delightful city; and – what made the hike better still – we had the trails to ourselves.  We saw hardly anyone else that day, even when we passed along the streets.  We lunched at Maryland Heights, and it was the first time that I had seen it under such conditions, that is, without anyone outside of our own group.  The combination of the unpromising weather and the ice that remained on the trails, probably, discouraged many from attempting the ascent, and as a result we could enjoy the bird’s-eye view of the city and of the confluence of the Potomac and Shenandoah Rivers without being distracted by the chatter of other onlookers. 

In general, the mood of the group was optimistic, reflecting the opinion of various experts that we are now entering the “endgame” of the pandemic.  There is a way to go, undoubtedly.  We have not reached the peak of the omicron variant yet.  Well over 2,000 Americans died from the virus today.  There will probably be other variants to come.  Indeed, a new one, dubbed the “stealth omicron” variant, has emerged and is being monitored by various health organizations.  At present, however, the CDC says that  it “remains a very low proportion of circulating viruses in the United States and globally.”

Nonetheless the average length of hospitalizations among COVID patients currently is shorter (31% shorter than those who were hospitalized in the previous winter and 27% shorter than those who were hospitalized from the delta variant), the percentage of COVID patients who have to be admitted to intensive care is down, and the percentage of those infected requiring hospital treatment is likewise declining.   In a new commentary published in The Lancet, Christopher Murray, M.D., of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington in Seattle, estimated that 50 percent of the world would be infected by omicron by the end of March, which will change the way countries manage the virus. “After the omicron wave, COVID-19 will return, but the pandemic will not,” he wrote.  “The era of extraordinary measures by government and societies to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission will be over.”

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 358,940,558; # of deaths worldwide: 5,633,158; # of cases U.S.: 73,389,334; # of deaths; U.S.: 894,655.

Unusual avian activity – More promising news about the virus – Military coup in Burkina Faso – Evening statistics

Since I had appointments in the morning and could not complete them before 11:30, I did not wish to travel far to hike and so I fell back on the old standby, the circuit around Burke Lake and Lake Mercer.  Towards the end of the hike I saw an extraordinary amount of raptors, including a bald eagle and half-a-dozen herons all searching for prey within a few yards of each other.  Normally I see herons only one at a time, unless I row past Vesper Island during their nesting season.  But on this occasion they were all together – the first time I’ve seen them in such a formation.  A passerby told me, in addition, that this is the first sighting of a bald eagle on the lake in two years.  There were a couple of bald eagle nests among the treetops along the lake shore in earlier years, but they had been abandoned.  The weather was warmer today than it has been for many days, well above freezing; but both lakes still retained a thin coating of ice.  In some isolated areas the ice had broken, and it was along one of these that the herons were lined, which may be an explanation of why they were so close to one another; they were in one of the few places where they could dive for fish below the surface.  Numerous other birds were in evidence as well:  blue jays, cardinals, chickadees, and pileated woodpeckers, among others.

The alpha and beta variants are all but extinct at this point and the delta variant now accounts only for about 0.5% of the COVID cases since January 15^th.  At least 99% of the cases that have recently emerged of the omicron variant – which is fortunate, for the omicron variant is far less severe than the others.  In the U.S., cases have crested and are dropping rapidly, following a pattern seen in Britain and South Africa. Although U.S. deaths are still rising (over 2,000 per day until fairly recently), new hospital admissions have started to fall and a drop in deaths is expected to follow.

There has been yet another military takeover of a government, this one in Burkina Faso.  Capt. Sidsore Kaber Ouedraogo, spokesman for the so-called Patriotic Movement for Safeguarding and Restoration, said that it “has decided to assume its responsibilities before history.” The junta has cited the deteriorating security situation amid the deepening Islamic insurgency and the president’s inability to manage the crisis.  At this point the whereabouts of President Roch Marc Christian Kabore are unknown.  Presumably he is detained somewhere, but nothing has been verified.  In general, as far as it is possible to tell from the very limited amount of evidence available, the takeover appears to have popular approval.  The Islamic insurgency has thwarted all attempts to stabilize the country’s economy.  Health services have become inaccessible to many and tourism, a major source of income, has naturally lessened since many other countries are issuing warnings against unnecessary travel to the area.  Attacks linked to al-Qaida and the Islamic State group have been steadily escalating, killing thousands and displacing more than an estimated 1.5 million people.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 354,771,406; # of deaths worldwide: 5,621,995; # of cases U.S.: 72,913,166; # of deaths; U.S.: 891,544.

Possible winding down of the pandemic – Another misguided cruise – Evening statistics

Hans Kluge, the WHO Europe Director, has said that the Omicron variant has moved the COVID-19 pandemic into a new phase and could bring it to an end in Europe.  The WHO regional office for Africa also said last week that cases of COVID had plummeted in that region and deaths were declining for the first time since the Omicron-dominated fourth wave of the virus reached its peak.  Fauci expressed similar optimism on Sunday, saying that  that with COVID-19 cases have been coming down “rather sharply” in parts of the United States and that “things are looking good”.  The numbers have been declining in the northeastern states and Fauci said that “I believe that you will start to see a turnaround throughout the entire country.”  The peak is now estimated to be occurring some time in mid-February.  This optimism has to be tempered with caution, of course. “There is a lot of talk about endemic,” said Kluge, “but endemic means … that it is possible to predict what’s going to happen. This virus has surprised us more than once so we have to be very careful.”

Those who insist on taking a cruise while a pandemic is going on cannot, of course, be accused of being particularly careful.  And recently yet another cruise has had a bad ending, although not in the manner one might expect.  The good ship Crystal Symphony, a luxury cruise liner, did not pull into Miami, its original destination, at the end of its voyage, to the great surprise of the300 passengers and 400 crew members on board.  As a result of a lawsuit issued by Peninsula Petroleum Far East Pte. Ltd. for $4.6 million in unpaid fuel bills, a U.S. court has issued an arrest warrant.  Whereupon Crystal Cruise, the firm that owns the liner, abruptly suspended operations and landed it in the Bahamas instead.  The company has lost $1.7 billion during the pandemic and is currently scrambling to come to terms with its creditors.  “That was quite extraordinary, to be in a position to have to perform to people, with them knowing the cruise line has gone into liquidation,” said Elio Pace, one of the musicians hired for the trip. “This was a shock to everybody when we got the announcement on Wednesday.”  Customers were then ferried to Fort Lauderdale, so that they were eventually re-patriated; but, as can be imagine, quite a number of them have been forced to reschedule their return flights as best they might.  Crystal Cruises has issued a notification that all cruise operations will be suspended until at least April.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 351,995,586; # of deaths worldwide: 5,614,512; # of cases U.S.: 71,925,931; # of deaths; U.S.: 889,197.

The joys of hiking in winter – Delay of Carnival parades in Brazil – Unexpected application of hydroxychloroquine – More bad news for Giuliani – Ominous proposal in South Dakota – A new form of tradeable commodity – Evening statistics

I had a splendid hike today, one that might be called an optimal winter hike:  that is, the sun was shining brightly from a cloudless sky of a hue that could truly be termed azure, a coating of pristine white snow blanketed the rocks on the trail, and temperatures were well below freezing, thereby ensuring that the trails never became slippery.  There were only four of us in all; a fifth person was prevented from joining us by become stuck on an icy section of a road (we later learned that she eventually managed to extricate herself and did some hiking on her own).  We hiked in Gambrill State Park, taking the Catoctin Trail to the Yellow Poplar Trail and then hiking the greater part of the latter to ascend Catoctin Mountain and to skirt by the park buildings along the high plateau at the top.  There was only one noteworthy overlook, but that one provided a magnificent panoramic view of Frederick, MD. 

It is curious how much difference going a few hundred feet upward can make.  In the DC metro area the rainfall on Thursday had melted much of the snow , and even in the streets and yards in Frederick, as we could discern from the overlook , were virtually free of snow.  But the base of the woodlands in which we roamed had a significant amount of snow (about an inch for the most part) and patches of ice as well.  We wore microspikes for the hike.  Perhaps they were not strictly necessary, since the snow provided sufficient traction for most of the hike, but they certainly provided a firmer footing.  It is the first time that I’ve used microspikes this season.  Last year I used microspikes more than I have done for any previous year; whether the remainder of the season will require me to use them to the same degree of frequency remains to be seen.

The times when one could casually saunter into Nethers and summit Old Rag will soon be gone.  As of March 1, 2022, it will be necessary to obtain a pass in advance to do the Old Rag hike.  Nothing has been been said about whether this affect those who wish to access the Nicholson Hollow Trail; the same parking area is used for both.

The government of Brazil is displaying a surprising amount of prudence, to my astonishment.  The Carnival parades that generally take place towards the end of February, and which can involve hundreds of thousands of participants in street crowds, have been rescheduled for April 21^st.  The explanation is that this caution has nothing to do with Jair Bolsonaro and has been initiated by the municipal governments of Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo, whose mayors are a great deal more careful about their citizens’ health their President is.  Brazil reported a record 131,103 new COVID cases on January 18^th, surpassing the previous daily record of 115,228 set on June 23^rd.

Hydroxychloroquine, although it is absolutely useless for treating COVID, may prove to be effective in slowing the disabling effects of multiple sclerosis.  There is no known cure for the disease and the best that treatment can do at this point is to prevent symptoms from worsening as long as possible; it cannot be either halted or reversed.  A new study tested hydroxychloroquine’s ability to slow the disease’s disabling effects over an 18-month study. Researchers followed 35 people with MS, keeping track of their progress from November 2016 to June 2021. The research team expected at least 40 percent of these patients (14 people) to experience a significant decline in their ability to walk, even after the hydroxychloroquine treatments.  To their surprise, only eight participants saw their MS symptoms worsen, a result nearly twice as beneficial as what they had anticipated. 

Federal prosecutors gained access to thousands of Rudy Giuliani’s communications this week.  The FBI raided Giuliani’s home and office last year and seized 18 electronic devices.  A judge later appointed a “special master” to review documents and records seized in the raid and filter out materials that could be covered under attorney-client privilege.  The filtering process is a gradual one and records have been released to prosecutors in parcels.  The judge has recently ruled that the prosecutors have access to nearly all of the 25,000 communications from one of the seized cellphones.  Prosecutors also gained access to over 3,000 communications from December 2018 to the end of May 2019 from another set of Giuliani’s devices.  It has not yet been revealed whether any of the documentation obtained from the raid has proved to be unreadable due to stains of hair dye.

South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem on Friday unveiled a proposal to ban nearly all abortions.  It is virtually a copy of the new abortion law in Texas.  The proposed law would punish people who aid someone in getting an abortion with a minimum $10,000 penalty, in addition to legal fees and other potential compensation. It makes no exception for rape or incest, except stipulating that a man who commits the rape or incest cannot sue.  The legislation has received an enthusiastic reception from fellow Republicans who dominate the South Dakota Legislature, so the likelihood is that it will pass. 

It is clear by now that unless American women take matters into their own hands and vote every Republican out of office, they will become as downtrodden as women in sub-Saharan Africa.  That party is now nothing more than a rotten reed.  It cannot be salvaged at this point.  Trump has corrupted it for all time.

The notion of what constitutes a tradeable commodity is becoming increasingly flexible and, frankly, downright weird.   Sultan Gustaf Al Ghozali, an Indonesian student, took a photo of himself every day for five years.  He studies computer science and necessarily spends hours at a workstation, and the photos he took reflect the dazed, expressionless appearance that generally is the outcome of staring at an LED for hours on end.  He then started to sell his selfies as non-fungible tokens (NFTs), simply as a joke.  An NFT is a unique digital asset representing ownership of real-world items, and photographs may be included among these.  To his astonishment, a celebrity chef purchased some and promoted them on his social media accounts; other users followed suit, some of them making T-shirts sporting his image and others penning songs about him.  As of Friday, his collection reached a total trade volume of 384 ether (another crypto-currency), equivalent to more than $1 million.  He has yet to disclose his newfound wealth to his immediate family.  “To be honest,” he said, “I still haven’t had the courage to tell my parents. They would be wondering where I got the money from.”

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 349,707,561; # of deaths worldwide: 55,609,684; # of cases U.S.: 71,728,557; # of deaths; U.S.: 888,623.

Murmurings of transition from pandemic to endemic abroad – The current COVID situation in the U.S. – Possible beginning of a baby boom – Giuliani’s fortunes decline – Jude the Obscure – Evening statistics

At least three nations have announced their intentions of treating COVID as endemic, i.e., as a disease regularly recurring and exacting a certain toll periodically, but – as with such diseases as influenza and pneumonia – no longer entailing special preventative measures outside of vaccination.  These three are Spain, Portugal, and the U.K.  France is also loosening restrictions, albeit to a lesser degree.  Stadiums and sports arenas will re-open on February 2^nd and drinking and eating will be allowed in stadiums, cinemas and public transport and while standing at bars as of February 16^th. 

In Spain this step is understandable.  It has one of the highest vaccination rates in the world (81% of the population fully vaccinated, of whom nearly half have received boosters as well).  It has undergone severe restrictions up to this point.  Its populace was ordered to stay home for more than three months. For weeks, they were not allowed outside even for exercise. Children were banned from playgrounds, and the economy virtually stopped.  No wonder that the country is eager to move on to a less restrictive phase.  Portugal’s vaccination rate is still higher: 89% of the population fully vaccinated.  The only other nations with higher vaccination rates are the UAE and Brunei.  France, similarly, also has a high vaccination rate (more than 90% of adults fully vaccinated) and has already implemented the use of a “vaccine pass” to access restaurants, cultural events and most public transportation.

The U.K., however, is a different matter.  Its vaccination rate is lower than that of Austria, where unvaccinated people will soon be fined.  Officially, the percentage of the British population that has developed antibodies against COVID-19 either from infection or vaccination is 95%, but it is difficult to be certain about the number who have become immune from infection.  There are, after all, many instances of people becoming infected with COVID more than once.  Currently the number of active cases is over 3½  million, about 5% of its population.  It is true, however, that the number of severe cases has been declining; currently this number is well under 1,000. 

It will take some time for the U.S. to consider such a transition.  Anti-vaxxers have been allowed to run rampant in this country as in no other, and the results can be seen for themselves.  Currently we account for over 40% of active cases and over 27% of severe cases worldwide.  (And, it bears repeating, we account for only 4% of the world’s population.)  About 7.7% of Americans are currently infected with COVID, about 1 in 13. Nearly 9 million workers have called out sick on account COVID during the first two weeks of 2022, a new record, and an extremely unenviable one.

Our more likely model will during the next several weeks could easily be Germany, where less than 73% of the population has received two doses and infection rates are hitting new records almost daily.  It continues the restrictions posted as of December 21^st:  no gatherings of over 10 people, all of whom must be vaccinated or recovered; no entry to most public places for those who are neither vaccinated nor recovered; all clubs and discos closed; only vaccinated, recovered, or tested people allowed to enter their work offices or to take public transit.  “We still have too many unvaccinated people, particularly among our older citizens,” Health Ministry spokesman Andreas Deffner said on January 17^th.

However, not all of the news here is dreary.  The omicron variant may already be peaking in certain regions, such as the Northeast states.  And it appears that the birth rate, which has been declining steadily for several years and which has fallen precipitously since the onset of the pandemic, may receive a boost from a baby boom this year.  Pregnancy test sales have increased by 13% since the end of 2020, members of the millennial generation are getting older and achieving financial security, and would-be parents who delayed conception at the onset of the pandemic are starting to feel more confident that it will be waning soon.  In fact, the birth rate has already begun to rise:  it increased by 3% this past June.

In other encouraging developments, Igor Fruman, an associate of Rudy Giuliani ‘s, has been sentenced to a year and a day in prison for helping to funnel foreign money to the campaigns of Republican officials.  Lev Parnas, another Giuliani associate, has already been found in guilty in October of participating in similar schemes and is currently awaiting sentencing.  All of which is satisfactory as far as it goes, but how long will it take our legal system to overtake Giuliani himself?  He has undergone one small loss already:  his honorary degree from the University of Rhode Island has been revoked.  Perhaps this is an augury of greater things to come.

The weather has not been especially cheering for much of this week and as a result I have been indoors more than usual.  Among other activities to divert myself I have re-read Thomas Hardy’s Jude the Obscure, whose critical reception was so hostile that Hardy in response ceased novel-writing altogether and which has since been acclaimed by many as his masterpiece.  I’m afraid that Hardy’s contemporaneous critics were right.  Quite simply, it is not a good novel.  Perhaps in a later entry I will attempt to sort out my reaction to it in a more organized form; for now, suffice it to say that the novel is very clumsily constructed, its dialogue is so wooden as to cause the reader to wonder whether the speakers are marionettes instead of living, breathing people, and Sue Bridehead, the heroine, Is one of the most repellent young women in the entirety of British fiction.  She is even worse than Angel Clare, the main male character of Tess of the d’Urbervilles – in which statement I realize that I am making a very large claim indeed, but I stand by it nonetheless.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 346,636,318; # of deaths worldwide: 5,602,769; # of cases U.S.: 71,317,077; # of deaths; U.S.: 887,561.

Example of COVID’s dramatic swiftness – How various nations are bearing down on the unvaccinated – A novel method for evading vaccination requirements – The Fulton County investigation against Trump comes to light – Trump and the Screen Actors’ Guild – Evening statistics

I came across a particularly grim story today about a COVID vaccine “skeptic,” one that illustrates, among other things, how rapidly the virus can do its work.  Hanka Horkà, a popular folk singer in the Czech Republic, deliberately contracted the disease in an attempt to acquire natural immunity.  Many public places in the Czech Republic, such as theaters and bars, require either proof of vaccination or proof of recovery from recent infection.  She did not wish to take the vaccine, so when her husband and son (both vaccinated) became infected during the Christmas holidays, she stayed in the same house with them for the express purpose of exposing herself the virus in order to contract it and afterwards to obtain proof of recovery.  While her husband and son did indeed both recover, her story ended differently.  On January 14^th, she posted on social media that she had recovered without any ill effects, adding “Now there will be theatre, sauna, a concert.”  Two days later she was getting dressed for a walk and felt her back hurting. She went to lie down and in “about 10 minutes it was all over,” her son said. “She choked to death.”

The bill to make COVID vaccines compulsory in Austria has been passed by the lower house of parliament.  Currently, about 72% of Austria’s population is vaccinated, one of the lowest rates in Europe, which has motivated its government to take stern measures. The bill imposes fines of up to 600 euros ($680) on holdouts once checks begin on March 15. Those who challenge that initial fine unsuccessfully face a maximum fine of 3,600 euros.  The bill must now pass the upper house and be signed by President Alexander Van der Bellen, but these steps will largely be formalities. 

Austria’s policy may be extreme but other nations have similar measures.  Italy has made COVID-19 vaccinations compulsory for those aged 50 and older, while Greece has done the same for those over 60, and various other European countries have made vaccines compulsory for certain professions such as medical staff.  The province of Quebec in Canada has confirmed that a tax on the unvaccinated will be going into effect shortly, possibly as early as next month, although the exact amount has not yet been determined.

In another Canadian province, people have been subverting the vaccination regulations in a manner that is, I must admit, rather ingenious.  Alberta has set down a strict law that various organizations, including restaurants, must require proof of vaccination, negative COVID test results, or medical exemption for anyone entering their premises. They are also required to enforce masking.  However, health officials received a complaint that The Granary Kitchen, in the town of Red Deer, was not conforming to the regulation.  They investigated the matter and found that while customers were indeed submitting photos before entering, some customers were submitting a photo of their pet dog instead of one of their vaccination card along with their personal identification.  The facility staff, in turn, were going through a pantomime of using a tablet in a manner that appeared to be scanning a QR code to prevent onlookers from suspecting the truth.  Like Queen Victoria, the Alberta Health Service was not amused.  It directed the owners to immediately close the restaurant’s indoor dining services temporarily, submit a written plan and commitment to implement a restrictions exemption program, train staff to ask for proof of vaccination or a negative test, and provide a written statement that all staff are then fully trained.

The investigation into Donald Trump’s attempts to falsify the votes in Georgia in his favor is now heating up.  Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis has requested a special grand jury as part of her investigation.  A special grand jury cannot issue indictments but may subpoena witnesses, produce documents, and investigate other offices as part of the probe.  This step is part of a larger process that may determine whether Trump will be formally charged in the first half of 2022.  Words cannot express how relieved I am to find, in spite of my fears over the past several months, that this effort has not fallen by the wayside.  

Among the many notable activities that Trump has done since he left office was to write a letter tendering his resignation from the Screen Actors’ Guild after its union notified him that he faced a disciplinary hearing for his role in the Jan. 6 riot and “reckless campaign of misinformation.”  His notice is marked by that candid, uninhibited tone for which he is justly famous and concludes as follows:  “this letter is to inform you of my immediate resignation from SAG-AFTRA.  You have done nothing for me” – which, if true, is very much to the Guild’s credit, it seems to me.

Yesterday’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 339,025,537; # of deaths worldwide: 5,582,237; # of cases U.S.: 976,394,259; # of deaths; U.S.: 880,323.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 342,821,269; # of deaths worldwide: 5,592,617; # of cases U.S.: 70,465,555; # of deaths; U.S.: 883,755.

COVID testkits website – An extreme example of “selfitis” – Plans for new capital in Indonesia – Evening statistics

The U.S. Government has now set up a website to order free COVID testkits.  Since I wished to have some on hand, I clicked on the link and the form for ordering the testkits proved to be surprisingly easy, taking me all of 15 seconds to complete.  A confirmation Email showed up in my Inbox almost immediately afterwards.  It is somewhat ironic to be able to obtain them so effortlessly when pharmacies have been unable to supply them for months and just about the only way to obtain them was to order online from a private vendor at exorbitant cost or travel to regions (such as West Virginia, where one of my friends was able to purchase ten testkits from one of the stores) where the attitude towards the virus is somewhat more cavalier than it is here.

Lynda Douglas, of Ottawa, can certainly respond rapidly when an emergency strikes.   She was driving her car on the Rideau River, whose surface was frozen.  She was unaware, apparently, that rivers have currents and that seemingly solid ice surfaces might not in fact support the weight of an automobile.  The ice broke and the car began to sink.  As various onlookers frantically sent out a kayak and ropes to rescue her, she managed to climb onto the top of the submerging vehicle, whereupon she proceeded to – take a selfie on her cell phone.  One might have thought that she would take the trouble to bestow a glance or two upon the local residents striving to pull her out of the ice-cold water before she sank in and succumbed to hypothermia; but no, her main concern was to secure an exciting photo that she could post on Twitter.  She has been charged with one count of dangerous operation of a motor vehicle under the Criminal Code of Canada. 

Indonesia is making plans to establish a new capital city.  Jakarta, which contains over 10 million people, is, unsurprisingly, extremely congested.  It is also flooded with alarming frequency and, what is worse, is rapidly sinking on account of over-extraction of ground water.  Parts of north Jakarta are falling at an estimated 25 centimeters (10 inches) a year, due to subsidence – including even the seawall designed as a buffer for communities.  Under the project, Jakarta will remain the country’s commercial and financial center, but government administrative functions will move to Kalimantan (the Indonesian portion of Borneo, accounting for about three-quarters of its area), approximately 1,250 miles north-east of Jakarta.  The Indonesian administration has an additional motive for relocating the capital:  redistribution of wealth.  Java, the island on which Jakarta is located, is home to 60% of the country’s population and more than half of its economic activity, even though Kalimantan is almost four times its size.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 334,920,607; # of deaths worldwide: 5,563,112; # of cases U.S.: 67,494,969; # of deaths; U.S.: 874,213.  At this point over 1 in 5 Americans have been afflicted with the virus, over and above those who have died from it.

Canceled hikes – A dearth of passengers on Metro – An eerily quiet Mall – A new conspiracy theory – Evening statistics

What a disappointment!  The MLK hike scheduled for today was canceled – not on account of politics, as was the case last year, but on account of the weather.  The wind level was predicted to increase to such an extent as to make driving (and crossing bridges in particular) during the evening inadvisable, gusting possibly as much as 55 miles per hour.  We are going to try to do the hike some time next month.

I went to the MLK monument nonetheless, as I always do at this time of year.  I took the Metro, using it for the first time in about 15 months.  It did not, in fact, appear to entail any particular risk of infection, for the cars were nearly empty.  There were a few more people on the return journey than in the morning; but even so, everyone had at least three or four rows all to himself. 

The city, as well, seemed empty.  Normally the Mall is quite crowded during a three-day weekend, no matter what the season might be; but that was not the case today.  After visiting the monument I went around the Tidal Basin, where I encountered only a few other pedestrians and no bikers.  From there I went to the Vietnam Veterans Memorial and wended my way through Georgetown and Rosslyn before returning.  Throughout my wanderings the traffic was a great deal less dense than one might expect.  I crossed several major traffic arteries without the slightest difficulty, even for those that do not have traffic lights or crosswalks.  I’m not sure what the explanation is.  The city was not so sparsely occupied when I took an urban hike on December 26^th.  The weather, to be sure, was not ideal, but it was in the 30s, cloudy but not gray, and not especially damp – quite reasonable for this time of year, in fact.  The wind advisory may have discouraged people from driving in from Virginia, but normally the in-town residents and the guests staying at hotels provide plenty of visitors who throng the Mall area at all times of the year.  Even at the MLK monument I saw only a handful of tourists this time, which is practically unheard of on the day of the year that is named in his honor.

The weather has interfered with another hike as well.  Tomorrow I was supposed to hike with the Vigorous Hikers.  But there is too much snow on the originally proposed hike, which is in higher altitudes, and even the backup hike that the hike leader had prepared is unavailable because the parking areas at the trailhead are currently unusable, being covered with ice.

Since conspiracy theories are in such vogue these days, I’ve decided to broadcast one of my own.  It is my firm conviction that Ty and Charlene Bollinger, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Joseph Mercola, Sherri Tenpenny, Rizza Islam, Rashid Buttar, Erin Elizabeth, Sayer Ji, Kelly Brogan, Christiane Northrup, Ben Tapper, and Kevin Jenkins, the “dirty dozen” collectively responsible for issuing about 65% of the anti-vaccine posts on the Internet , are deliberately manipulating the weather for the express purpose of interfering with all hiking activities in the area.  Proof, you say?  Who needs proof for a conspiracy theory?  I think that mine reads pretty well on the whole, considering that I’m a mere novice in comparison with the aforementioned experts.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 331,128,123; # of deaths worldwide: 5,563,112; # of cases U.S.: 67,494,969; # of deaths; U.S.: 874,213.

A typical winter for the DC Metro area – Plans for Martin Luther King Day – The advent of Governor Youngkin – Floridians ignore their Surgeon General’s sage advice – European nations take a hard line against the unvaccinated – Evening statistics

The winter is shaping up to be one more typical of the area than it has been in recent years.  Little snow was seen during the winters of 2019 and 2020.  There was quite a bit of precipitation in the winter of 2021, but for the most part it took the form of ice and sleet and rain.  For this winter, however, we have already had one significant snowfall and we are undergoing another (although its accumulation is predicted to be less than the amount we have endured from the previous storm); and it is still only the middle of January.  This morning was no colder than it was yesterday, but it felt much less comfortable, with blanched skies and that peculiar chill in the air that signifies the onset of rain or snow to come. 

The roads will probably be difficult to navigate by tomorrow morning, and I am expected to be downtown by 10:00; but I plan to take the Metro in any case.  If worse comes to worst, I can always walk to the station; the distance is about 3½ miles.  There is also a local bus system available, although its timetable will almost certainly fall behind schedule tomorrow.  Unless the conditions are unusually bad, I should be able to get there in time.

The event for which I am journeying is a meeting with various others to visit the Martin Luther King monument and pay the tribute of respect to this man who has contributed so much to our national welfare; and afterwards to embark on a 15-mile loop afterward.  It is an activity I have done annually for many years running; although it was impossible the preceding year, thanks to the aftermath of the 1/6/21 riot. 

Governor Youngkin was inaugurated yesterday and he has certainly begun his administration vigorously.  Today he signed nine Executive Orders and two Executive Directives at the Virginia State Capitol.  The first of these is the banning of “inherently divisive concepts” in the state educational system.  These include, of course, Critical Race Theory, although it is not explicitly mentioned in the Executive Order.  The actual wording lists the following concepts that are covered by the ban:

“(i) one race, skin color, ethnicity, sex, or faith is inherently superior to another race, skin color, ethnicity, sex, or faith; (ii) an individual, by virtue of his or her race, skin color, ethnicity, sex or faith, is racist, sexist, or oppressive, whether consciously or subconsciously, (iii) an individual should be discriminated against or receive adverse treatment solely or partly because of his or her race, skin color, ethnicity, sex or faith, (iv) members of one race, ethnicity, sex or faith cannot and should not attempt to treat others as individuals without respect to race, sex or faith, (v) an individual’s moral character is inherently determined by his or her race, skin color, ethnicity, sex, or faith, (vi) an individual, by virtue of his or her race, skin color, ethnicity, sex, or faith, bears responsibility for actions committed in the past by other members of the same race, ethnicity, sex or faith, (vii) meritocracy or traits, such as a hard work ethic, are racist or sexist or were created by a particular race to oppress another race.”

And I’m afraid that until the advocates of Critical Race Theory rein in their more extreme adherents, it will not obtain a hearing.  I am far from desirous of cloaking the history of slavery in our country with a discreet silence or to conceal the heinousness of the Jim Crow laws following the failure of Reconstruction or to minimize the corrosive effects of racial tension that have persisted to the present day.  But neither do I desire to see children and adolescents told that they are inherently racist because they are white or to be held responsible for actions committed by their ancestors centuries earlier. 

Other Executive Orders include an investigation of the Virginia Parole Board for failing to send crime victims and prosecutors notification whenever a violent offender has been released (it has failed to do so in the past on numerous occasions, in violation of the laws of the General Assembly), sterner measures to combat human trafficking, the establishment of a Commission to combat antisemitism, and an investigation of the Loudoun County School Board.  This last one refers to a particularly distasteful episode that occurred on May, 2021.  A girl was raped in the bathroom of the school she attended by a 15-year old boy, who was wearing a dress at the time.  He was, or at any rate claimed to be, transgender.  The School Board responded in a thoroughly discreditable manner, immediately transferring the rapist to another school without informing the victim or her family that her assailant had been allowed to remain in the school system.  The promising olive branch upon whom the School Board members lavished their protection proceeded to justify their confidence by assaulting a second girl at his new school, and was arrested in October.  He pleaded no contest to the charge of sexual assault by the following month. To add insult to injury, at a school board meeting a month after the attack school officials justified their transgender policy and announced that no rape had occurred in the bathroom at all; and when Scott Smith, the victim’s father, protested against this misrepresentation, he was dragged out of the board meeting with a bloodied mouth after the police were called to intervene.  Actually, the phrase “insult to injury” gives a somewhat misleading impression of the activities of this enterprising School Board, does it not?  To be strictly accurate, I should have said “to add injury to injury.”

All in all, this is not a bad beginning on the part of our new governor.  I would feel less apprehensive about him than I have been up to this point, were it not for the fact that some of the new directives are fairly ominous:  one that re-evaluates Virginia’s participation in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (and virtually directs the aforesaid re-evaluation to recommend Virginia’s withdrawal from it), one that lifts the mask mandates from Virginia schools, and one that rescinds the vaccine mandate for all state employees, on the grounds that this measure is a violation of individual freedoms and personal privacy.  Of course, it is just possible that he may reverse this last one with a new Executive Directive later on, after the offices of state administration become steadily depleted by their employees calling in sick all the time as a result of having been stricken with COVID. 

From The Importance of Being Earnest, by Oscar Wilde, after Jack Worthing, the protagonist, having been abandoned (or properly speaking, mislaid) as an infant, is informed that Lady Bracknell can provide him some information about his parentage: 

“Lady Bracknell, I hate to seem inquisitive, but would you kindly inform me who I am?”

I daresay that the inhabitants of Florida also hate to seem inquisitive, but nonetheless wish that some qualified person would kindly inform them about their state of health.  At any rate, when Florida Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo deprecated the demand for COVID testing and said, “It is really time for people to be living, to make the decisions they want regarding vaccination, to enjoy the fact that many have natural immunity” – the state residents were having none of it.  In Miami-Dade County, at any rate, some 70,236 residents have expressed a wish to be tested, the highest number to date.  There is, you see, the trifling circumstance that contracting COVID can be fatal (the mortality rate in this country is currently about 1.3%), not to mention the fact that they might prefer to avoid infecting others, and that an early diagnosis could conceivably lower the chances of spreading the disease still further and even improve chances of survival.  Despite this disregard of his advice, Ladapo has certainly his main objective:  that is, to curry favor with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, whose attitude towards the threat from the virus is equally oblivious.

Austria, by way of contrast, is bearing down heavily on the unvaccinated, announcing that as of March, 2022, citizens will be fined if they cannot produce proof of COVID vaccination.  Its attitude is far from unique among European nations.  Germany has banned unvaccinated people from most areas of public life.  France’s President Emmanuel Macron last week said that he “really wants to piss off” the unvaccinated.  Claims about individual freedoms, which are repeated as a mantra in this country, are for the most part brushed aside in Europe.  European countries with highly vaccinated populations, such as Spain and Portugal, have been less badly affected by more recent waves of infection and have been able to open up their economies; and the other European nations, where vaccine rollout has been slower, are anxious to imitate their example.  “When my freedom threatens that of others, I become irresponsible,” Macron said. “An irresponsible person is no longer a citizen.”

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 328,674,108; # of deaths worldwide: 5,557,596; # of cases U.S.: 66,995,533; # of deaths; U.S.: 873,564. 

Hiking on the “Roller Coaster” – Canada now rejects unvaccinated truckers crossing the border – A cruise vacation gone awry – Improved survival rate for pancreatic cancer – A promising day in Northern Ireland – Evening statistics

I went with the Wanderbirds today to a section of the Appalachian Trail that I have not visited for at least two years.  The hike was a there-and-back south from Snickers Gap on the “Roller Coaster,” so-called because it passes over several ridgelines in succession and consists of almost continual ascending and descending.  Many hikers shy away from this section of the AT, and it must be admitted that it has few views to offer in compensation for the exertion.  But it is less daunting than it sounds.  The ascents in either direction are not very long (about three-quarters of a mile at the most) and although the gradients are not negligible they are never punishingly steep – not like, for instance, the mountains in the Presidential Range in New Hampshire.  The weather was similar to that of the hike I led on Tuesday, although it was somewhat cloudier, especially during the morning.  It became sunnier as the day progressed.  But it was clear, cold, and dry, so that there were no muddy patches to deal with.  We did have to navigate over a few rock fields that were iced up, but navigating them was not especially difficult.  There was a sufficient amount of firm surface everywhere and one only had to use a little caution in threading the way through the iciest portions.

We had the best part of the day on this hike.  When I returned I stopped by at the Oriental market to pick up some groceries, and the sky was overcast and grayish by then.  The market was crowded, because a snowstorm is predicted for tomorrow and many were stocking up on provisions.  I have heard that in some areas people are having difficulty in obtaining various commodities of produce, canned goods, and so on; but that certainly was not the case here.  There were no empty shelves and I was able to obtain all that I needed quite easily. 

The government of Canada has announced that unvaccinated truckers will be turn away from the border.  This regulation will have considerable repercussions because, according to the American Trucking Associations, 40%-50% of American truck drivers are not vaccinated.  The rule applies as well to Canadian truck drivers who drive to the U.S. for delivery and then attempt to re-enter the country.  For that matter, the U.S. will soon follow suit, requiring all truckers from a foreign country to show proof of vaccination.  The American Trucking Associations says to expect supply-chain disruptions in both countries unless exemptions are made. 

If anyone doubted that taking a cruise in the middle of a pandemic is a bad idea, that doubt should be dispelled by the experiences of the passengers on a ship managed by Norwegian Gem.  On the 6^th day of a 10-day cruise, the passengers were greeted with an abrupt announcement that all sailing within the Caribbean had been canceled.  The passengers are in effect trapped on board for the remaining four days.  “Without the islands and ports to break up the sea days, this is turning into a nightmare,” on passenger said. “I really can’t imagine four more sea days back to back without much to do.” 

Not all of the news from the medical industry is bad.  The survival rate for pancreatic cancer has increased to 11%, the highest it has ever been, and five percentage points higher than it was during the previous decade.  Julie Freshman, the president of the Pancreatic Cancer Action Network (PanCAN), described herself as “thrilled” by the news but added that “11% is still the lowest survival rate of all major cancers.”  PanCAN has set a goal of establishing the five-year survival rate increase to 20% by 2030.  I earnestly wish them well.  I feel strongly about the matter, having lost a close friend to pancreatic cancer some years earlier.  And he was one of the lucky ones:  in his case, the cancer was detected in the earlier stages and the treatments he received enabled him to live nine years past the date that it was first diagnosed. 

And there is another encouraging development:  Northern Ireland has undergone one day (Saturday) without a single death from COVID.  Its Department of Health reported 2,668 new cases today, down from the 2,954 cases reported on Friday.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 326,774,343; # of deaths worldwide: 5,553,642; # of cases U.S.: 66,664,283; # of deaths; U.S.: 873,149. 

A conscientious attempt to avoid misleading the pollsters – The leader of the Oath Keepers charged with sedition – Signs that the decline in the omicron variant is beginning – Evening statistics

Late last night I saw a poll circulating on the internet – on Facebook, to be particular – that read like this:

YOU’VE BEEN SELECTED

ARE YOU ABANDONING TRUMP AND THE REPUBLICANS?

And this raises a rather interesting question of semantics.

Strictly speaking, of course, the answer is “No.”  You cannot abandon anyone you’ve never supported in the first place.  Before Trump assumed office I had merely written him off – on the rare occasions that I bothered about him at all – as an ignorant, obnoxious dullard.  This distaste intensified to loathing shortly after his inauguration, with the seemingly endless bacchanalian chaos that he and his revolving-door staff conducted for the duration of his regime.  I honestly did not think that my opinion of him could sink to an even lower level than it has been since January 20, 2017; but it did, thanks to his utter irresponsibility during the onset of the pandemic and his shameless attempts to invalidate a national election, culminating in an armed insurrection in our own capital.  If I had been a judge in an earlier era and his case had come before me, I would have had no hesitation in sentencing him to the rope.

Thus if I were to say “No,” I would certainly be truthful but I would be giving a misleading impression of being a Trump supporter; whereas if I responded “Yes” it might give the – equally misleading – impression that I have been a Trump supporter up to this point.  Under the circumstances I thought it best to take a third option by ignoring the poll entirely.  Most internet users, I suspect, will look upon this choice as the wisest alternative.

With regard to the aforesaid insurrection, incidentally, I feel a distinct sense of relief to hear that Stewart Rhodes, the founder and leader of the far-right Oath Keepers militia group, has been arrested and charged with seditious conspiracy.  I have frequently lamented in previous entries that none of the participants up to this point have been charged with treason and sedition.  Perhaps, however, it is best that such changes be reserved for the leaders of the riot, instead of for their witless pawns.  The indictment against Rhodes alleges Oath Keepers formed two teams, or “stacks,” that entered the Capitol. The first stack split up inside the building to separately go after the House and Senate. The second stack confronted officers inside the Capitol Rotunda. Outside Washington, the Oath Keepers had stationed two “quick reaction forces” that had guns “in support of their plot to stop the lawful transfer of power.”  All of which charges, if they can be proven, will confirm that the riot was not, as various people trying to minimize it have claimed, simply a political demonstration that got out of hand but an event that was pre-meditated and carefully planned in advance.

Charges of similar gravity are said to be in motion for other leaders of the riot.  One can only hope that they will target as many of the movers and shakers as possible, not excluding, of course, our former President.

The omicron variant appears to be peaking in various localities already.  In the U.K., the seven-day average of new COVID cases declined to 138,268 Monday (the most recent day data was available) from a high of 183,084 on January 2^nd.  Researchers from the company Biobot tracking the viral load in wastewater in Boston, reported that the city “​​has passed its Omicron peak,” roughly one month after the variant was first detected in waste from the area.  The seven-day average of new cases in Texas declined to 49,830 Tuesday, down slightly from a high of 53,116 on Saturday.  The numbers in New York City and the state of New Jersey have plateaued.  In the U.S. as a whole, the total number of new cases on Monday was 1.35 million, a number that has not been exceeded since that day.  Today the number of new cases, as of 8:00, was 788,464.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 320,655,117; # of deaths worldwide: 5,538,414; # of cases U.S.: 65,218,446; # of deaths; U.S.: 869,124. 

Premier Legault’s proposal for the unvaccinated – Decline in popularity of smoking and of cancer rates – Encouraging prognostics for the future – Less encouraging data for the present – Evening statistics

The province of Quebec, the second-most populous of Canada, is proposing a measure to prevent the unvaccinated from flooding its hospital system.  The province’s premier, François Legault, is attempting to impose a “sin tax” on the unvaccinated, similar to that levied on alcohol and cigarettes, on the grounds that the unvaccinated are placing a crippling burden on Quebec’s hospitals and should be made to pay for it.  It appears that the proposed tax is not in violation of the Canada Health Act, which is constructed to guarantee universality and accessibility of health care.  But human rights activists are understandably alarmed about the Big Brother overtones of such a measure. McGill University biomedical ethicist Phoebe Friesen, for instance, is concerned the logic of taxing unvaccinated people could be extrapolated to other behaviors seen as driving health spending, such as obesity, but that are tied to marginalization.

Our country has seen an advance in overall health that has gone unnoticed.  Deaths from cancer fell from its peak in 1991 by 32% at the end of 2019.  The main factors are earlier diagnoses, better treatments, and fewer smokers; but especially this last-named one.  Indeed it is quite astonishing how quickly the habit of cigarette smoking has fallen out of fashion in this country.  When I was growing up, commercials for various cigarette brands were quite frequent – not excluding those interspersing programs geared towards child audiences, incidentally – and people smoked in the workplace as a matter of course.  But by the time I was working smoking in the office was banned and I would often encounter little clusters of men and women assembled at one of the back doors indulging in a hasty smoke before re-entering the building.  On public transportation, most people would no more consider smoking a cigarette than they would consider denuding themselves.  When one goes to anywhere in Europe or Asia, the difference is felt at once:  smoking there is a great deal more prevalent in these areas and many look upon our regulations concerning tobacco as an unfortunate sequel of Prohibition.  They may want to reconsider this attitude in light of the data just revealed.

With regard to the pandemic, there is also some encouraging news.   A recent study suggests that the percentage of deaths from patients who contract the omicron variant is 91% less than those who contract the delta variant.  The analysis also found a 53% reduction in symptomatic hospitalization and a 74% reduction in admission into intensive care units.  Omicron now accounts for about 98% of the new COVID cases in the U.S., so that it seems likely that after the initial spike caused by its high degree of contagion, hospitalizations and deaths from COVID generally will decline.

However, the effects of this spike will be considerable while they last.  The CDC has gone on record as stating that most Americans will eventually come down with the disease.  Today more than 800,000 Americans tested positive for COVID – and this is merely the official figure.  Those who test positive at their homes and who then do not report it to the health authorities are necessarily excluded from this tally.  By way of perspective, on the same day the previous year, also the peak of a winter surge, an average of 251,232 people tested positive for the virus.  The much lower mortality rate of the omicron variant is offset by the greatly increased numbers of new cases.  Today alone saw an increase of well over two thousand deaths.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 317,247,076; # of deaths worldwide: 5,529,799; # of cases U.S.: 64,304,444; # of deaths; U.S.: 866,872.

The McLean Loop hike – Dr. Fauci makes a shrewd diagnosis – Possible peaking of the omicron variant – An unusual alternative proposed for vaccines – Evening statistics

I led the McLean Loop hike for the Vigorous Hikers.  I had begun the hike with very low expectations, for I had seen some of the streams yesterday and they were filled to overflowing as a result of the rainfall on Sunday and the subsequent snowmelt.  I did not take into account, however, that if these little creeks fill up very quickly, they recede with equal quickness; and today the water levels were much lower than I had anticipated, to my great relief.  We were blessed with ideal weather as well:  sunny, clear, almost windless, and best of all, temperatures that never rose above freezing, which made nearly all of the muddy areas  firm underfoot.  There were ten of us in all, and we kept up a good pace together, starting after 8:30 and ending before 3:30, with a half-hour break for lunch, and covering 17 miles in all.  The does not feature any long extended climbs or rock scrambles, but it is fairly challenging – surprisingly so, for a hike set within densely populated suburbs.  I did note in my hike report to the PATC afterwards, however, that the crossings at Scott’s Run and Pimmit Run are virtually non-existent and constitute a hazard in inclement weather; these stream crossings have been washed out for some time and there are all sorts of nebulous plans for reinstating them, but to date nothing has come of them.

There was more entertainment than usual during a Senate hearing in which Senator Roger Marshall  (R‑KS)  accused Dr. Fauci of failing to provide public financial disclosure.  Fauci reminded Marshall that his finances were readily available, and had been “for the last 37 years or so.” He added that Marshall, who blamed “the big tech giants” for concealing Fauci’s finances, simply had to file a public information act request to view his disclosures. “You are so misinformed that it’s extraordinary,” he added. As Senator Patty Murray (D-WA) shut Marshall down and regained control of the proceedings, Fauci could be heard on a hot mic muttering to himself, “What a moron. Jesus Christ.”  It’s reassuring to know that even in an emotionally wrought Senate hearing Dr. Fauci retains his habit of scientific precision.  Senator Marshall opposes face mask mandates even while conceding that masks are effective in halting the spread of the virus, has promoted conspiracy theories that falsely suggest that the CDC are inflating coronavirus death numbers (leading to Facebook to removing his posts  as a violation of its rule against “harmful misinformation”), and promotes hydroxychloroquine as a COVID preventative.  All in all, I would say that “moron” is a pretty accurate description of him.

The omicron variant may already have peaked in Great Britain and perhaps even in the East Coast as well.  The variant is so wildly contagious that it simply is running out of people to infect.  The U.S. has recently seen an average of more than 668,000 new cases every day, a six-fold increase from just five weeks ago.  Several medical experts, however, say that this surge could end soon.  One of these, Dr. Ashish Jha of Brown University, stated “I expect this surge to peak in the next couple of weeks.  It will peak at different places in America at different times, but once we get into February, I really do expect much, much lower case numbers.”  Alessandro Vespignani, director of the Network Science Institute and Sternberg Family Distinguished Professor at Northeastern, agrees:  “Omicron was fast and furious in its growth and will be fast – hopefully not furious – but very fast also in its decline.  It should be receding sooner than other waves that we experienced in the past.”  Vespignani predicts that the bulk of infections will occur in mid-January and begin to decline in the second half of January. 

Anti-vaxxer Christopher Key has come up with an alternate method for combatting the virus, which, however, is not likely to win widespread acceptance:  drinking one’s own urine.  After railing against the COVID vaccines, he launched out in fervent praise of “urine therapy”:  “This vaccine is the worst bioweapon I have ever seen!  I drink my own urine!”  Perhaps the most appropriate response came from TV host Jimmy Kimmel:  “If this guy’s kids ever set up a lemonade stand in your neighborhood, run.”

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 313,900,612; # of deaths worldwide: 5,520,673; # of cases U.S.: 63,352,955; # of deaths; U.S.: 863,828.

The ordeal of Ted Cruz – Jan Psaki demolishes a reporter – Vandalism in Big Bend – Yearning for opening up of international travel – Evening statistics

It is disputed who originated the comment, but a jest currently making the rounds is that there is one simple answer to the question of why so many people dislike Ted Cruz on sight:  “it saves time.”  He is paying heavily at present for his sycophancy of Trump and his allies, for earlier this week he underwent an experience astonishingly similar to that of dissidents in Mao Zedong’s regime being “struggled against.”  At a Senate hearing this past Wednesday, Cruz said that the nation was approaching “an anniversary of a violent terrorist attack on the Capitol.”  Instantly Tucker Carlson’s hackles were raised by any criticism of his fellow Trump supporters and on the following day he denounced Cruz for this comment.  Cruz became alarmed and, like the tower of jello that he is, immediately backtracked:  “The way I phrased things yesterday — it was sloppy, and it was, frankly, dumb.”  But Carlson, that most fervent of Trump devotees, found this sniveling apology inadequate, and lost no time in making his displeasure known; in response to which Cruz groveled still more, saying that he was just talking about a “limited number” of people who assaulted police officers – not the “thousands of peaceful protesters” supporting former President Donald Trump.” He sounded exactly like a cowed dissident in Marxist China voicing a self-criticism, without having the excuse, however, of his party having the power to subject him to physical torture and dismemberment.  They aspire to possess such authority, in all probability, but as yet they have not attained it.  Despite these limitations, Carlson has doubtless given considerable gratification to his Supreme Leader in Beijing – no, sorry, I meant to say, in Mar-a-Lago.

Fox News, however, is discovering that not all holders of public office are as docile as Cruz, as the following Twitter exchange between Fox News Pete Doucy and White House Press Secretary Jan Psaki can attest:

DOUCY:  I’m triple-vaxed … You’re triple-vaxed, still got COVID. Why is the president still referring to this as a pandemic of the unvaccinated?”

PSAKI: “You are 17x more likely to go to the hospital if you’re unvaccinated, 20x more likely to die.”

Oddly enough, Doucy’s own father Steve Doucy, of Fox & Friends , compared the vaccine to a bullet-proof vest, saying that while the vest may not “stop a bullet” from hitting the person wearing it, “it won’t let the bullet kill you.”  But Pete Doucy is certainly not the first to display the withering effect of Trump’s influence on filial solidarity; once again, Cruz sets the example, continually fawning upon the man who publicly and repeatedly slandered Cruz’s own father.

A panel of ancient petroglyphs in the Indian Head area of Big Bend National Park was irreparably damaged when vandals chose to scratch their names and the date across the prehistoric art, which dates between 3,000 and 8,500 years old.  This incident is far from unique; in Big Bend alone, archaeologists have seen over 50 instances of vandalism since 2015.  Nor is such behavior confined to the United States.  I vividly remember visiting Plovdiv in 2014, which contains, among its other numerous attractions, a site that displays evidence of habitation dating back to the 6th millennium BCE, when the first Neolithic settlements were established.  It was impressive to behold but also saddening, for parts of it were ineffably defaced by graffiti. 

I cannot forebear, nonetheless, from heaving a sigh of nostalgia for that loveliest of cities.  There are two things I wish to do if I get the opportunity to go to Bulgaria again:  climb up Vihren Peak a second time – and perhaps, with more favorable weather than we had during the last visit, include going along the knife-edge ridge of Koncheto – and spend some days in Plovdiv.  Our group stayed there for only a single day, which is far too short a time to savor all that it has to offer.  I hope the experts are correct when they assert that the virus will peak in a few weeks and then decline; perhaps international travel will eventually become easier than it is now. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 310,766,166; # of deaths worldwide: 5,511,726; # of cases U.S.: 62,526,210; # of deaths; U.S.: 861,277.

The “mild” status of the omicron variant challenged – Long overdue recognition of Edmonia Lewis – Evening statistics

Several physicians are challenging the judgment that the omicron variant is particularly mild.  According to Dr. Hesham A. Hassaballa, a Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine specialist with twenty years of clinical practice, “This wave is the worst one we’ve yet endured.  Almost half of all the beds in my hospital are occupied by COVID patients. More than half of my ICU is COVID patients, and all of them – every single one – is on a ventilator. We have surpassed our record numbers from last fall, and the end is not in sight at all. And, every hour, more and more COVID patients keep coming to our hospital.”  “For the overwhelming majority of those who are vaccinated,” he adds, “COVID is a mild illness.”  But the case is very different for those who have declined the vaccines.  Dr. Hassaballa’s ICU patients, for example, are for the most part well under 60 and every single one of them is unvaccinated.

It may seem strange that hospitals are being overwhelmed with patients when 86.4% of the adult population has received at least one dose.  This means, however, that there are still over 35 million adult Americans who are unvaccinated, and it is from this segment that the hospitalizations are for the most part recruited.    The weekly hospitalization rate for COVID for the population of New York City is nearly 1 in every 1,000 people.  But the weekly hospitalization rate for COVID among vaccinated people is 3 per 100,000. 

On a pleasanter subject, the U.S. Postal Service has honored the sculptor Edmonia Lewis by creating a commemorative stamp for her.  Lewis was unusual in many ways.  She was one of the first women and one of the first African-Americans to become an American artist of international stature.  She herself did not care to dwell upon this distinction:  “Some praise me because I am a colored girl, and I don’t want that kind of praise,” she said. “I had rather you would point out my defects, for that will teach me something.”  She need not have worried; her works would be admired even if the artist had been anonymous.  In particular, her skill in depicting folds of clothing in the medium of stone has to be seen to be believed.  She challenged the conventions of her art in several ways.  She spent several years in Rome, where many sculptors practiced their art; but the process was somewhat different for most of them than it was for sculptors of earlier periods.  Most of the so-called “sculptors” simply modeled the statues in clay or wax and then hired Roman stone masons to reproduce their works in marble.  Lewis, lacking the funds to hire such help, created most of her works on her own.  She became a master of sheer technical skill.  Her copy of Octavian (later Augustus Caesar) from an ancient Roman statue in the Vatican – it was a frequent subject for copy by many artists – is virtually indistinguishable from the original.  But in her own works she infused an emotional intensity that startled contemporary observers.  Her “Death of Cleopatra,” instead of using the decorous conventions of the time, shows the queen seated on her throne , lifeless, with arms splayed out and head twisted in unmistakable agony.  Alas, many of her works have not survived, as a result of her reputation becoming eclipsed after the Neoclassicism of which she was an adherent fell out of favor.  There is some satisfaction in reflecting that many of her most important surviving works are to be seen in this city, at the Smithsonian American Art Museum.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 307,788,077; # of deaths worldwide: 5,505,739; # of cases U.S.: 61,263,030; # of deaths; U.S.: 859,356.

A beautiful winter hike – Death of another anti-vaxxer – Misstatements from Supreme Court Justices – Preventative measures carried to an extreme – An unexpected discovery – Evening statistics

I led the Lake Fairfax Loop hike today for the Capital Hiking Club.  It was a wonderful day, perfect winter weather:  dry and clear, with sunlight radiating from a cloudless sky intensified by its reflection from the snow-covered earth.  It has been a long time since I’ve experienced such a hike, for the past two winters have not seen many snowfalls sufficient to coat the ground with a quantity of snow that did not all melt away in a day or so.  There was indeed less snow on the paths than I anticipated, but there was enough to provide detours around the icy patches.  The temperature when we began the hike was a little over 20 degrees, which precluded any possibility of mud.  Later on it warmed up – a bit more than I wanted, actually, for in the last few miles the trails became a little muddier than before; but not unduly so.  Only three people showed up, the others being, I suppose, daunted by the cold weather.  But it is easier to lead a small group than a large one, and they were all strong hikers, progressing at a good speed (though we stopped from time to time to take photos) and navigating the icier portions of the trails with sure-footed confidence.  The hike ended descending a meadow that sloped gently down to the main road of the park not far from the entrance, and what would have been a rather ordinary-looking field on warmer days provided a magnificent picture when covered with pristine snow whose glossiness almost dazzled the eyes.

Yet another prominent anti-vaxxer has passed away from COVID, after repeatedly denouncing the vaccines and throwing in for good measure that Dr. Fauci “needs to be hung from a rope.”  Cirsten Weldon used her online platform to urge not only her followers but perfect strangers whom she passed on the street not to take the vaccines and to ignore government restrictions. Her followers number in the thousands. Some time after posting the edifying footage of herself screaming in a frenzy at people lining up to receive booster shots, she contracted the disease and died in the hospital a few days after being placed on an oxygen mask.  One of her claims was that “only idiots would die from the virus”; and whether or not the hundreds of thousands in this country who have lost their lives to COVID were deficient in this respect, of her own idiocy there can be no doubt.

Weldon at least has the excuse that she is merely one of many merely spouting her own opinions as a private citizen and – not holding any high office – is under no particular obligation to do anything else, however misinformed her opinions might be.  The same, however, cannot be said of Supreme Court Associate Justice Neil Gorsach, who, after hearing oral arguments for and against President Joe Biden’s mandate that large companies require employees to be vaccinated against COVID-19 or be tested weekly for the novel coronavirus., asserted that influenza kills “hundreds of thousands” annually and yet there are no flu vaccine mandates.  In fact, the estimates for deaths from influenza in the country vary considerably, ranging from 12,000 to 52,000 at the utmost.  In the past year COVID has swept away nearly one half-million. 

He is not the only member of the Nine Wise Men who appears confused on the subject.  Sonia Sotomayor has also made hyperbolic claims, albeit in the opposite direction.  She claimed that “over 100,000 children” are hospitalized with COVID, “many on ventilators.”  According to the CDC, the seven-day average of pediatric hospitalizations was approximately 3,700 this week.  COVID is undeniably a scourge; but children, while not immune, are happily among those least at risk from the disease.

Needless to say, right-wing commentators are calling out Sotomayor’s gaffe while serenely ignoring Gorsach’s, and left-wing commentators are hooting at Gorsach and maintaining a discreet silence about Sotomayor.  So perhaps it is best for readers to get their information from me, whose surly disapproval, like rain, falls upon conservatives and liberals alike – at least when, as in the examples cited above, either is making such gross displays of misinformation without the slightest amount of data to back them up.

Medical ignorance is apparently becoming a national hobby. Sarah Beam, a teacher in the Cypress-Fairbanks Independent School District, northwest of Houston, went to somewhat unusual lengths on Wednesday to protect herself from the virus. Her 13-year old son had recently tested positive for the virus.  She arrived at a COVID testing site to get tested herself shortly afterwards.  She told the district’s director of health services, who was gathering information from people waiting at the drive-thru site, that her son was in the trunk so that she didn’t get exposed to the virus while driving.  The horrified official directed her to open the trunk and place him on the back seat, while hastening to notify the police.  She has since been arrested on a charge of child endangerment.

Another somewhat unexpected passenger was found in a car trunk yesterday in Pennsylvania.  Officers with the Newberry Township Police Department in York County were making what they thought was a routine DUI stop and, as part of the procedure, requested the driver, an unidentified 19-year old woman, to open the trunk.  To their astonishment, they found a live deer inside.  The driver told the officers that she had hit the deer with her car and that she and her passenger placed it in the trunk, thinking it was dead.  Later they realized that in fact it was still alive, but kept on driving anyway.  The police directed the passenger to take the deer out and release it into the wild, while the driver was arrested on suspicion of being under the influence of alcohol or drugs.

When I compare the relatively even tenor of my own life with the zanier antics of some of my compatriots, there are times that I wonder whether they and I are living in alternate universes.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 305,872,815; # of deaths worldwide: 5,501,970; # of cases U.S.: 60,954,028; # of deaths; U.S.: 859,046.

A second snowfall – Encouraging prognostics from some quarters – A strange labor dispute – Evening statistics

We received an additional snowfall last night, but this one was only an inch or two.  As before, the day after the storm was beautifully clear, but very chilly, especially on account of a wind that was continually blowing.  Happily, however, there was no reprise of the massive traffic jam that occurred earlier this week.  Even the side streets were completely plowed by mid-morning.

According to at least one medical expert, the pandemic is already over.  Sir John Bell has said that the omicron variant is “not the same disease that we were seeing a year ago” and that the pandemic death rates are “now history.” Certainly it is true that, despite its high degree of transmissibility, the omicron variant has been less severe in its effects than its predecessors; for example, hospitalization stays now average about three days in length, far less than those of patients stricken by earlier variants.  Bell’s comments certainly cannot be dismissed lightly.  He is one of the foremost medical researchers in the U.K. and was awarded a Knight Grand Cross of the Order of the British Empire back in 2015 for his significant contributions to the industry of life sciences and medical science.  Still, our own country lost over 2,000 people yesterday as a result of the virus, and it will, I believe, take some time before the mortality rate goes down to a level that will justify downgrading the virus to the endemic status.  The U.S. has seen over a million new cases on some days, and three states have declared a state of emergency this week on account of the increased hospitalizations:  Maryland, Delaware, and Kansas. 

Another expert, an infectious disease modeler at Columbia University, has predicted that the omicron variant will peak about January 21^st.  It is encouraging news, although his surname is somewhat unfortunate for a reputable expert in medical matters:  his name is Jeffrey Shaman.

The Department of Labor is currently prosecuting a rather unusual case in Georgia against a firm called A OK Walker Autoworks, an automobile repair shop.  Andreas Flaten, an employee of the firm, complained that he had not been paid overtime that was due to him, a sum amounting to more than $900.  He awoke one morning in March, 2021, to find the sum dumped on his driveway, all in pennies – and coated in oil to boot.  The Department of Labor did not take this prank in a laughing spirit; it is suing Mike Walker, the firm’s owner, for “repeatedly and willfully” failing to pay time-and-a-half for overtime for numerous employees, relying instead on a flat rate of pay regardless of whether someone worked more than 40 hours in a week.  I was curious enough to take a look at the Google reviews for the company.  They are largely negative, with an average rating of 1.3 on a 1-to-5 scale.  One reviewer in particular left a rather provocative comment:  “Don’t be a weenie; go anywhere else. It’ll save you a pretty penny or two.” 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 303,550,670; # of deaths worldwide: 5,496,545; # of cases U.S.: 60,381,310; # of deaths; U.S.: 858,105.

Winter snowfall – Traffic jam on I-95 – The first anniversary of the attempted coup – Trump as a “karma Houdini” – Evening statistics

We had the first snowfall of the season on Monday, and the first significant one (more than 8 inches in some areas) for at least two years.  I was more or less confined to the house on Monday, and although some of the roads were plowed yesterday, I judged it best not to drive anywhere when there was no necessity to do so.  Yesterday I went to Scott’s Run Nature Reserve to finish clearing out the Potomac Heritage Trail between the nature reserve and Scott’s Run itself.  Of the past three days, Tuesda saw the best weather, the atmosphere displaying the pristine quality that occurs once a storm passes through and clears the air.  More snow is expected tonight (Thursday).

Admittedly, my attitude towards the snow might have been different if I were still commuting or obligated to drive under such conditions instead of having the luxury of choosing to remain at home.  One man had a particularly grueling experience on Monday evening.  Upon returning from San Francisco to Dulles, he hired an Uber to get back to his residence in Richmond.  The car got stuck in a huge traffic jam created by the unplowed roads and the ride, which under ordinary circumstances would have been about two hours, amounted to more than nine.  Afterwards Uber charged him $600 over the original cost.  It is only just to record that after he protested and was able to get in contact with the company, it refunded the fee and stated that the amount would not be taken out of the driver’s earnings.  His experience was far from unique:  the traffic jam on I-95 stretched out over a distance of 50 miles and hundreds of drivers waited more than 24 hours before the roads could be cleared by the plows. 

For my own part, the snowfall has induced a certain lassitude – with regard to the journal, that is to say.  Otherwise I have been active enough:  shoveling the walks, shopping on foot (because I was running low on food Monday, and it seemed very inadvisable to drive as the snow was falling even for short distances), making more bread for the week, scouting hikes that I am to lead on the 8^th and the 11^th, and so on.  Part of the reason is that there has been little real news.  The status of our situation as far as the COVID virus is concerned is virtually unchanged.  Omicron continues to be the dominant variant, numerous anti-vaxxers have lost their lives on account of their obstinate refusal to take the vaccines, and various prominent Republicans (Ron Johnson, Rand Paul, Kevin McCarthy, among others) continue to display the ostrich instinct in denying the severity of a virus that has claimed well over 5 million lives worldwide, over 15% of them American – about four times of what the proportion would have been had deaths from COVID been distributed evenly among all the world nations.  One gets wearied of so much repetition.

 Today, however, has aroused me from my apathetic attitude towards writing, for it is an important occasion.  It is both Epiphany and what might be called, for our country at any rate, Anti-Epiphany:  in other words, today is the first anniversary of the assault upon the Capitol.  The aftermath possibly inspires even greater dismay than the original event.  About 70 of the rioters have received sentences, most of them quite trivial.  None of them has received more than five years of jail time.  One might excuse such misguided leniency on the grounds that they were for the most part merely pawns, but those who have orchestrated the event have not received any sentencing at all.  In particular, Donald Trump has emerged scot-free.  None of the lawsuits that threatened to accuse Trump of treason has materialized and politically the failed coup has cost him nothing:  if anything, his stranglehold on the Republican Party has intensified as a result.  If the presidential election were to be held this year, he would be certain to win the nomination.  There is a real possibility of his running for President again in 2024, and, what is worse, of winning the election.

It is true that various lawsuits have piled up against Donald Trump during the past few weeks, many of them initiated by police officers who were attacked in the January 6^th riot.  But it seems a waste of time to itemize them; at this point Trump is enmeshed in dozens of lawsuits by private parties, and none of them seem to be able to touch him.  Any financial penalty he undergoes will not even make a dent in holdings that amount to two-and-a-half.5 billion dollars.  The only penalty that would make any impression on him is time in prison, and our court system is too pusillanimous even to consider it.

His supporters, in the meantime, continually keep up the pose of being political outsiders even when they occupy some of the most prominent offices in the land:

 “The American people deserve an honest government, not a bunch of gaslighters,” Lauren Boebert wrote in a recent tweet.  Several months ago Brazilian President Bolsonaro participated in a protest march against the Brazilian national government – that is to say, against himself – and now Boebert is following his example by disparaging our own national government, seemingly unaware that she is one of its representatives.  

Yesterday’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 298,083,620; # of deaths worldwide: 5,481,639; # of cases U.S.: 58,765,219; # of deaths; U.S.: 853,561. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 300,638,492; # of deaths worldwide: 5,489,390; # of cases U.S.: 59,521,490; # of deaths; U.S.: 855,734. 

The first hike of the year – Governor Hogan on Maryland’s health care – Twitter takes on Marjorie Taylor Greene – Plans of the investigating committee for the January 6^th riot – Evening statistics

I have begun my hiking log today for 2022.  The first hike of the year was something over 11 miles and about 2000 feet of elevation gain, quite a reasonable beginning.  We had a little rain off and on, but nothing approaching the downpour of yesterday, and to my surprise the trails were a great deal less muddy than I anticipated.  Until this past week the weather has been relatively dry and as a result the soil absorbed most of the water from the rainfall.  The hike took place at the Cool Spring battlefield, which has a network of trails, including a loop that begins and ends at a defunct golf course.  There are many views of the Shenandoah River in the final part of the hike.  Afterwards we partied a bit in the pavilion at the park there; we celebrated not only the new year but the birthday of one of the hikers in our group.

My observations about the depletion of our health care system were repeated in part by Governor Hogan of Maryland on CNN’s “State of the Union.”  He was speaking about the strain that the new surge in cases has placed on Maryland’s health care,  saying that although his administration has done all that it can to lure doctors and nurses to the hospitals, “you can’t really manufacture doctors and nurses that don’t exist.“  Maryland has one of the highest vaccination rates in the country, with 92% of all adults having received at least one dose – which means, in his own words, that “eight percent of the population who has not been vaccinated is responsible for 75 percent of all the people that are filling up our COVID beds in the hospital.”

Once again Twitter has intervened with people disseminating misinformation, although in the present case its target is a less prominent person than Donald Trump.  Marjorie Taylor Greene’s personal Twitter account has been closed out and she is permanently banned from the network.  In particular, Twitter has cited her fallacious claims about deaths caused by the vaccines, a conspiracy theory that has been debunked repeatedly; the Food and Drug Administration’s Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), which she uses as her authority, is open to public submission, and as a result the more than one million reports of injury or death among individuals who have received the COVID vaccines are largely unverified by the federal government.  It is true that only her personal account has been banned.  The one used by her congressional office, @RepMTG, is largely operated by staff and at this point is not affected.  Up to this point she has used the account mainly for noting her objections towards the COVID-related mandates; but if she decides to spread anti-vaccine propaganda on that account, it may be struck down as well. 

The House committee investigating the Jan. 6 insurrection is preparing to go public with its findings.  Its goal is not only to show the severity of the riot, but also to make a clear connection between the attack and Trump’s pressure on the states and Congress to overturn the 2020 presidential election.  There certainly has been no lack of material to support this contention.  The committee has already gone through 35,000 pages of records, including texts, emails and phone records from people close to Trump, in order to flesh out the details of the attack.  But it has no power to enforce accountability.  Congressional investigations are not criminal cases and lawmakers cannot dole out punishments.  Nonetheless, its members hope that they can present the public with a thorough accounting that captures what could have been, in Liz Cheney’s words, “an even more serious and deeper constitutional crisis.”  There is considerable time pressure on them to present the findings before the midterm elections, which the Republicans are expected to win.  If the Republicans obtain a majority in the two chambers, it can be said with a certain amount of assurance that the committee will be swiftly dismantled.

In connection with this episode in our national history, a noteworthy interchange between one of the rioters and the judge presiding over the case may be mentioned.  Anthony Mariotto, a Florida man who was sentenced to three years of probation and ordered to pay a $5,000 fine, expressed remorse for his actions that day, giving the following explanation: “I was hoping that they would just pause the election,” Mariotto said during his December sentencing. “I wish Joe Biden, President Biden, would have won by billions of votes. None of this would have happened.”  To which Judge Reggie Walton replied, “He won by 7 million.”

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 290,588,293; # of deaths worldwide: 5,460,216; # of cases U.S.: 56,142,175; # of deaths; U.S.: 847,408.  If we take the number of Americans who have contracted the virus and subtract from it the number who have died from it, the amount of living Americans who have contracted COVID is 16.6%, about one in six throughout the population. 

The first day of the new year – How the unvaccinated affect patients afflicted with any ailment – Exodus of public health officials – Evening statistics

 The first day of the year ended better than it began.  The hike in which I had originally been scheduled to participate was canceled because the leaders came into contact with someone who tested positive for COVID and they did not want to take the chance of infecting others.  It may have been possible to find another hike to join, but the weather for much of the day was a continual downpour and as a result I was not inclined to go out.  In the late afternoon, however, the rain had come to an end just as I was leaving the house to go to a New Year’s Day party.  The hosts were EF and MJ, whose penthouse apartment has an extensive outdoor terrace, and the weather for the evening was surprisingly warm and less damp than it had been earlier. Certain precautions were taken, of course.  All of the guests were vaccinated.  Each of us took a COVID test before the day of the party.  The guests wore masks while inside the living room, but we took them off once we went out on the terrace.  The guests were staggered, so that there would not be 30 people occupying the apartment all at the same time.  To some such measures might seem excessive and to others they may seem insufficient, but I believe it was quite reasonable to hold a social function on such terms. 

It is perhaps fanciful of me, but I have a strange conviction that this first day of 2022 is emblematic of the year to come:  that is, dark and depressing at the beginning, but giving way to milder conditions and a relaxation of the restrictions later on.

The family of Dale Weeks is blaming unvaccinated patients for indirectly causing his death.  Weeks was diagnosed with sepsis in November and was hoping to get treated for it before Thanksgiving.  He was initially taken to a small rural hospital for treatment but had to wait 15 days to be transferred over to a large hospital with better treatment options.  Hospital systems in Iowa , where he resided, have been overwhelmed by the high number of unvaccinated COVID-19 patients, causing a strain on all of their resources, even those for patients with unrelated ailments.  Jennifer Owenson, his daughter, said: “It was terribly frustrating being told, ‘There’s not a bed yet.’ All of us were talking multiple times a day, ‘Why can’t we get him a bed?’ There was this logjam to get him in anywhere.”   By the time he was able to have surgery, his condition started to deteriorate and he died on Nov. 28^th of complications by the operation.  His son Anthony Weeks said afterwards:  “The thing that bothers me the most is people’s selfish decision not to get vaccinated and the failure to see how this affects a greater group of people. That’s the part that’s really difficult to swallow.”

The effects of the self-centeredness of those who refuse the vaccines and who violently protest against them are not confined to hospitals.  In addition to losing health care workers, we are seeing a precipitous departure of public health officials as a direct consequence of their behavior.  Lee Norman, head of the Department of Health and Environment for Kansas, was told to resign by the state governor on account his daily briefings about the virus, which placed him in direct contradiction with the state’s GOP-controlled legislature.  Angie Hitson, director of the Health Department for Missouri’s Franklin County, stepped down after receiving repeated threats to herself and her family.  “The daily verbal assaults, threats of violence and even death threats directed at the department, my family and at me personally for following orders I was directed to follow, are not only unbearable, they are unacceptable,” she wrote in her resignation letter. “Resigning was not an easy decision for me, rather it was one I felt I had to make for my own safety and well-being.”  Nichole Quick, the chief health officer in Orange County, California, resigned in June 2020 after protesters displayed an edited photo of her with a Hitler mustache and swastikas, while another one of her critics publicly revealed her home address to any would-be assailant.  Other officials, in states like Montana, New York, Oklahoma and Texas, have left their jobs not only because of the persistent threats but a supine lack of support from lawmakers and other government leaders.  Lori Tremmel Freeman, CEO of the National Association of County and City Health Officials, has calculated that more than 500 public health officials have been pushed out or left their jobs since the early days of the pandemic.  They are not easily replaceable; those with the necessary qualifications for such positions are reluctant to assume them on account of the continual stream of threats and intimidation. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 289,662,341; # of deaths worldwide: 5,456,873; # of cases U.S.: 55,864,519; # of deaths; U.S.: 847,162. 

12/31/2021

End-of-year retrospective – Ted Cruz places Olympia about 9000 miles west of its actual location – The passing of an icon – Evening statistics

We are now seeing the end of the second year of the pandemic and it is natural to look back upon 2021 to review the events it has brought about.  The changes that have occurred over 2021 are much less striking than those of 2020 – naturally enough, for the pandemic has been the status quo for the entire year this time. But changes, though less noticeable, have nonetheless occurred:  the situation now is different from what it had been at the end of 2020.

On a personal level, at least, my health has not changed.  As before, I have been staying active.  I have not hiked quite the same amount as I did last year, but the total is still over 2,000 miles for the year and the elevation gain of my hikes has been greater, exceeding 300,000 feet this year.  Body weight has remained more or less constant. 

During the initial months of the pandemic, masks were recommended for contact of any kind, either indoors or out.  But eventually the consensus emerged that the virus is much less transmissible out of doors.  Now, although I continue to don a mask whenever I enter a store or any other public building, I no longer wear one when going upon errands until I am obliged to enter an interior.  The exception occurs when I am in very crowded areas, but for the most part I have avoided these.

The advent of the vaccines has infused a greater degree of confidence in activities that involve contact with others.  Social life has certainly become more varied than it was last year.  This year it was possible to take airplane flights without too much risk, whereas all of my travel during 2020 was by car.  And there have been parties at people’s residences, including my own, as well as the gatherings among my hiking friends out of doors.  I was able to visit relatives more frequently, to enter museums, and, at one point, even to attend a concert.  Of course such activities are all predicated on the fact that the participants are vaccinated.  My relatives have all received the vaccines, while at the museums and restaurants and concert halls I have entered, no one was admitted until he or she gave proof of vaccination.  Travel plans for 2022 are more ambitious still, since they include several trips abroad.  Up to this point all travel I have taken during the pandemic has been domestic.    

This relatively relaxed state of affairs has enabled me to make some progress towards covering portions of the Appalachian Trail that have so far eluded my grasp.  During the beginning of the year it seemed inadvisable to stay at a hotel anywhere – the vaccines had not been distributed yet – and afterwards other travel interfered with the project.  But I was able to use a shuttle service for the first time when I hiked in New Jersey, and that facilitated matters considerably.  It is much easier to cover several miles on the trail when one does not have to go back the same distance all over again on foot from the end of a segment to the beginning.  I hope to complete the portions that remain for me in New Jersey and Virginia (20½ and 43 miles respectively) and to cover a fair amount of the trail in New York as well.  There are about 90 miles of the AT that go through New York.  There is actually one part that is possible for me to reach while staying with my aunt in Manhattan.  The Appalachian Trail has a train station in the vicinity of Poughkeepsie – the only train station on the entire trail – and it can be reached from Manhattan on weekends.  In addition, the long-deferred Appalachian Trail Vista, a gathering of trail hikers from across the country, is scheduled for beginning of August in New Paltz.  If I manage to complete the entirety of the trail in New York as well as the segments I’ve not yet done in New Jersey and Virginia, I will have covered, with the exception of about 55 miles in North Carolina, all of the AT from Georgia to the border between Connecticut and Massachusetts.  There remains the portion of the trail going through Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine, which is still several hundred miles, even taking into account that I’ve completed over 70 miles in Maine. 

It seems incredible that at the beginning of the pandemic the most pessimistic of the analysts predicted no more than one half-million deaths at the most.  There was even speculation that pandemic would begin to wane by the end of February of this year.  No one predicted the emergence of the delta variant, nor its severity.  Experts are now cautiously holding out hopes that the virus will no longer be a pandemic after this coming winter ends, but of course there is no telling whether yet another variant will emerge with a severity comparable to delta.  In this respect the omicron variant holds out hope, for its effects on the whole are much less severe than previous variants and if it becomes the dominant variant the mortality rate will diminish considerably.  To counter-balance this optimism, it must be borne in mind that the death toll to date is rapidly approaching 850,000 and days in which over 1,000 Americans succumb to the virus are not uncommon.  I hope I am wrong, but I think that the death toll will exceed one million over the next few months. 

We need a bit of comic relief amid such gloomy prognostics, and what better source can there be than our own home-grown politicians?  Ted Cruz has sallied forth to protest against the restrictions in “WA” against dancing during musical events, with the exception of weddings.  In his concern for protecting the rights of party-goers from those treacherous killjoy Democrats, Cruz overlooked the fact that “WA” does not in this instance signify the state of Washington but instead means “Western Australia.”  Onlookers may have already suspected that geography is not what bridge-players would call his “long suit” when earlier this year he rushed to aid his fellow-Texans during a state-wide power outage by means of a flight from Washington that mysteriously wound up in Cancun instead.

We have lost one of the great comedic stars of the age.  Betty White died at her home this evening, just 17 days short of her 100^th birthday.  The list of her seemingly endless number of roles in radio and television (she worked longer in television than anyone else in that medium, earning her an entry in the Guinness Book of Records in 2018) is currently being compiled in various obituaries and it is needless to repeat them here.  But there is one aspect of her career that cannot go unremarked in a journal that contains so many references to hiking.  During her childhood Betty White had aspirations of being a ranger in the U.S. Forest Service.  The Service at that time was not accepting women as rangers; had it done so, White’s life might have taken an entirely different turn.  It is pleasant to record that she did realize her wish eventually:  in November, 2010, she was named an honorary Forest Ranger for activities in various animal charities, including several for veterinary research help treat companion and service pets and wild animals. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 288,366,314; # of deaths worldwide: 5,452,655; # of cases U.S.: 55,609,910; # of deaths; U.S.: 846,902.

The quiet last week of the year – Uproar in Milton Keynes – Good news from Dr. Fauci – Marjorie Taylor Greene – Evening statistics

When I was still working, the last week of the year was always a rather uneventful time.  In some cases the firms I worked for directed its employees to take vacation days between Christmas and New Year’s, so that they could economize on heating and maintenance of the buildings in which their offices were located.  Later these vacation days became “floating holidays” that employees could take at any time of the year that they chose.  I never scheduled vacation days during the last week of the year after that.  It was pleasanter to take vacation days when most other people were not doing so, and when the offices were nearly empty I was able to complete various long-range tasks that I had earlier been forced to set aside during more hectic work seasons and now could attend to at leisure.

So I am used to not much happening between December 25^th and January 1^st.  Even now, despite having been retired for several years, it appears to me in the natural order of things that this is a “slow” time of year, allowing one to concentrate on matters of upkeep without the fear of interruption that occurs among the more active periods.  This year has been no exception, with little to distinguish one day from the next outside of the festivities during Christmas and New Year’s days themselves.  And the same appears to be true with regard to the nation at large.  Most of the headlines I’ve seen differ little from the ones I read two or three days ago.  Such developments that are new refer mainly to the effects of the pandemic.

It appears that we Americans are not alone in having a segment of the population with little learning and less sense, who somehow contrive to be priggish, self-righteous, and violent all in the same moment.  In Milton Keynes, a fairly large town in Buckinghamshire, a group of anti-vaxxers stormed a test-and-trace site of the National Health Service and, by way of protesting against the vaccines, stole test equipment, menaced the health care workers, and tossed a number of test samples into the trash, while loudly proclaiming their right to decline the vaccine and to infect the populace at large – no, on second thought I believe they omitted this last part.  And the British government appears to be as ineffective as our own in dealing with marauders of this stamp.  Many Members of Parliament have denounced the actions of the protestors, but no arrests have been made.  What is particularly mystifying about this failure to take punitive action is that at least two of the leaders of this foray are readily identifiable, being figures of some national prominence:  Jeff Wyatt, former deputy leader of the far-right For Britain Movement, and Piers Corbyn, brother of the former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn.

In a pleasanter vein, my impression that the Omicron variant will peak within a relatively short time has received confirmation from Dr. Fauci.  He has said that the likelihood is that the number of cases will continually rise until the end of January, at which point they will begin to decline.  Since omicron is becoming the dominant variant of the country, and indeed of the world, such a decline could signify the beginning of the end of the pandemic.  He is cautious, of course, and emphasizes that no guarantees can be made about such a matter, but it is some comfort to hear this note of optimism from so prominent a source.

Marjorie Taylor Greene continues to flout the mandate that requires members of Congress to wear facemasks.  It must be said that she has the courage of her convictions, for she earns about $174,000 in salary as a representative and she has already forfeited over $60,000 in fines for her disobedience.  She is doubtless anxious to preserve one of her most potent weapons to use in floor debates; for although her Medusa-like features do not quite have the power to turn onlookers into stone, they most certainly have an intimidating effect upon their beholders.

Yesterday’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 284,906,146; # of deaths worldwide: 5,438,607; # of cases U.S.: 54,656,866; # of deaths; U.S.: 844,383.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 286,766,334; # of deaths worldwide: 5,445,330; # of cases U.S.: 55,226,252; # of deaths; U.S.: 845,712.