Category: Journal Entry

A winery hike – Prospects for reviving social activity – The lightening of tension as the pandemic begins to recede – Evening statistics

A winery hike is surely one of the most pleasurable ways of enjoying a day of fine weather.  One hikes in the early part of the day, with a sufficient amount of exertion to stimulate the senses and sharpen the appetite while avoiding the dullness that comes with too much fatigue; and afterwards one stops by at a local winery to sip the wine, to dine on various contributions of food from the participants, and to converse at leisure.  My companions were the same three with whom I enjoyed the winery hike we took together in mid-July, along with PF and ML, long-term hiking companions whom I have not seen for months.  We went from Gathland along the Appalachian Trail to the White Rocks overlook and back, about 7 miles in length and about 1000 feet of elevation gain.  From there we drove a few miles to the Big Cork winery in Rohrersville, a beautiful place in the valley on the western side of the mountains, with views on one side of the vineyard on one side and on the other of the range adorned with the fire tower atop Lambs Knoll, just a short distance from the overlook that constituted our turning-point earlier.  We sat at a table on the outdoor terrace and feasted on wine purchased from the management and on viands provided by each of us:  various cheeses, luncheon meats, crackers, vegetable dips, hummus, grapes (of the variety known as “sweet sapphire,” which I had never tasted before, and which are exceptionally sweet and firm-textured), crystallized ginger, chocolate from New Zealand, brownies. 

And we chatted animatedly about several matters, especially about the vaccines.  ML has participated in administering vaccines and she spoke enthusiastically about the increased amount of doses that Northern Virginia now has as its disposal.  At the same time there are certain policies that puzzled us.  It appears that smoking and obesity are regarded as underlying conditions, at any rate in Virginia and North Carolina, so that people who smoke or who are overweight get priority for receiving the vaccine.  In effect they are being rewarded for practicing unhealthy lifestyles.  Quite of a number of people in our circle have obtained one or both doses or are scheduled to receive them, but some have been left out.  LH, for instance, is under 65, has no underlying conditions, and is not in a profession that requires continual encounters with the general public (she works for the Census and currently is doing most of her work online), so she does not qualify for Phase 1A or 1B.  It is possible that Northern Virginia will be able to move on from these two phases next month, but it is not certain.  We spoke also about public matters such as the unresolved issues concerning the AstraZeneca vaccine, the unruly behavior of the college students in the Miami Beach area during spring break, and the crisis of migrants illegally crossing over the border, and also of private matters such as the impending trips to King’s Canyon and to the French Alps (everyone present at the table was scheduled to be on at least one of these) and the possible dates for resuming hikes via a chartered bus for the Capital Hiking and Wanderbirds clubs.  It was a lovely day, just as cloudless as the two previous ones, in the mid-60s, with a cooling breeze; and we were in no hurry to disperse.  We must have spent two hours eating and sipping wine and chatting together. 

Episodes such as these have been very rare indeed over the past year, but it seems likely that they will become more frequent as the vaccine rollout accelerates. Already about one-quarter of the American population has received at least one dose. 

An additional feature of this gathering is that we could discuss the topics in question without the indignation or agitation that would have characterized almost any such discourse a few months earlier.  The new administration has ushered in a calmer mood nationwide.  It’s not that our little group consisted of dedicated Biden partisans by any means:  we were critical, for instance, of the manner in which he has been handling the influx of illegal and underage migrants at the border.  But the rollout of the vaccines has been proceeding, after some initial glitches, smoothly and efficiently.  Without shouting, without posturing, and without elaborate speeches, Biden has been issuing orders with confident authority and with no apparent need to frighten or intimidate anyone, and the work of the reversal of the pandemic is going on quicker and better than it could have done during the chaos of the previous administration.  As the numbers of the inoculated increase, people are in general becoming less jittery, less pre-occupied with news headlines, and more disposed to concentrate on personal affairs.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 124,276,570; # of deaths worldwide: 2,734,784; # of cases U.S.: 30,572,024; # of deaths; U.S.:  555,909.  Slowly our position relative to the other nations of the world is improving.  Today the proportion of national new cases to global ones was 10.4% and the proportion of national deaths to global ones was 8.6% — still on the high side, but much less grossly disproportionate than it has been in earlier months.

Another hike in the ACLT – COVID in the EU – The Kumbh Mela festival – Student break – New developments in Myanmar – Evening statistics

I joined several other hikers with AD and RH in the American Chestnut Land Trust today.  We went along the Prince Frederick to Bay Trail, going there-and-back in both directions.  The overlooks towards the end of the trail are untrammeled by foliage at this time of year and provide a clear view of Parker Creek draining into the Chesapeake Bay.  In contrast to the bare forest within the mountain area, wildflowers are beginning bloom on the ground – bloodroot in particular, with its oval white petals and yellow stamens.  The trail goes over a swamp, where we heard a chorus of frogs peeping; the male frogs, at this time of year, attempt to attract females by the strength and volume of their mating calls.  The hike was about 11 miles and perhaps 1500 feet of elevation gain; although the ACLT is located in the piedmont rather than in the mountains, it has numerous ascents that, while short, can be very steep.  It was another cloudless day, somewhat warmer than yesterday.  The hike was enjoyable but it was marred by an untoward incident:  on the portion of the trail headed towards Prince Frederick, RH slipped and turned his ankle.  At first we were worried that it had been materially injured, but eventually he found that he was able to support his weight on it and that in all probability it was only a sprain.  Nonetheless it was advisable that he walk as little as possible, so he turned back to wait at a gravel road that we had crossed about ¼ mile earlier, while AD and one of the others went back to the parking area to pick up a car and drive to the point where RH was waiting. 

The European nations are undergoing considerable difficulties as a result of the rollout of the vaccines, which has been a good deal less efficient there than here.   Germany is considering an extension of its partial lockdown into April, despite numerous mass protests in several cities.  There have been similar protests in other countries, including the Netherlands, Austria, Bulgaria, and Switzerland.  In Marseille, about 6,500 took part in a carnival parade, openly defying the restrictions that France imposed this weekend.  One consequence of these disturbances is an increased amount of tension between the U.K. and the EU.  AstraZeneca (which is an Anglo-Swedish firm) has delivered only 30% of the amount of doses promised for the first quarter, causing the government in Brussels to accuse the U.K. of operating its own de facto export ban to achieve its vaccine success, a claim furiously denied by the British government. 

India is also facing difficulties.  The Kumbh Mela festival, a huge Hindu religious event held four times every twelve years at four different locations, has been shortened from three months to 30 days.  Nonetheless millions of worshippers are flocking to Haridwar, the location for the festival this year, on a daily basis.  Most of them wear no facemasks and few of them observe social distancing.  Medical authorities are concerned that another super-spreader event may result.  India is already in the midst of its second wave of COVID infections.  In February the number of new daily infections had been reduced to less than 10,000; but currently the average amount is well over three times that amount.

For that matter, we ourselves are undergoing a similar trial, without the excuse of religious fervor to account for lack of restraint:  namely, the annual spring break for our college students.  Miami Beach has imposed a curfew to deal with uncontrollable crowds partying there.  At this point about 13% of the population has been vaccinated, but many seem to be assuming that the pandemic is now completely under control, which is very far from being the case.  Dr. Fauci has urged people to remain cautious and not to risk additional spikes in infections.  “Vaccines are coming on really well,” he said today in a press interview. “If we can just hang on a bit longer, the more people get vaccinated, the less likelihood that there is going to be a surge.”  The number of infected people has been reduced from its peak in January by over 25%, but there are still at least 7,000,000 million who are still active with the virus. 

The situation in Myanmar is worsening.  As the military junta attempts to tighten its grip on power, the Myanmar economy is slowing down with anti-coup strikes, supply chain interruptions, and power outages.  Many areas are now using a barter economy.  Khin Maung Latt, an official in Suu Kyi’s administration who worked as a campaign manager for one of the country’s two Muslim MPs, died last night in custody.  He was badly bruised on the head and body, a fairly clear indication that he had been tortured.  At least 50 people have been killed and over 1,700 are in detention.  Sanctions from various governments outside the nation appear to have had little effect on the junta’s resolution to stay in power.  Regrettably, the only country that could exercise any real influence on it is China.  We are obliged to put some trust in China’s cooperation in the matter, and yet that trust is so woefully misplaced.  A dictatorship in one country is not likely to sympathize with pleas to combat the dictatorship of another.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 123,843,833; # of deaths worldwide: 2,727,284; # of cases U.S.: 30,521,337; # of deaths; U.S.:  555,296.  

The link to the complete journal is:  https://betulacordifolia.com/?order=asc

The first day of spring – Hiking at Big Devils Stairs – The journal’s anniversary – A retrospective – Evening statistics

Today is the first day of spring.  Actually, as I noted earlier, spring has already begun in the DC metro area, at any rate in the lower elevations.  Every day sees new flowers budding and various wildlife creatures emerging from their hibernation.  In the higher elevations, such as the Blue Ridge Mountains, it is a different matter; the landscape is still bare and wintry. 

The hike today I took in Shenandoah National Park with AD and RH went from Little Hogback Overlook along the Appalachian Trail to the Bluff Trail up to its junction with the Marshall Trail, and then backtracked, with a detour down the Big Devils Stairs Trail to the viewpoint that overlooks the gorge of a headwater tributary of the Rush River.  The gorge at this point is so steep that it becomes in essence a slot canyon.  Its cliffs and rock wall consist of metabasalt (a metamorphic form of basalt with the addition of some quartz), and how the river was able to cut through this non-porous hard rock is something of a mystery.  We chose to go to the overlook at this time of year because it is best to attempt it before the foliage emerges, at which point the views of the gorge are obscured.  We lunched at the overlook and then backtracked along the Bluff Trail and Appalachian Trail to the parking area.  The hike was about 13 miles, with 2370 feet of elevation gain, but for the most part the ascents were gradual.  There were eight of us in all, plus two others who did a modified version of the hike, taking the Bluff Trail to the Big Devils Stairs Trail, the Big Devils Trail to the overlook, and then backtracking to the parking area; even that modified hike is at least 8 miles.  It was quite cold in the morning when we began, but it warmed up quickly, without a cloud in the sky.  It was a splendid group hike and, like everything that AD and RH superintend, thoroughly well-organized.

This day has another significance for me.  One year ago today I began writing this journal, anticipating that the virus would have a significant impact on the days to come and desiring to have some sort of record so that after the crisis ended and matters returned back to normal I could look upon these notes and say, “Yes, this is how things were during that time.” 

Some sort of retrospective seems in order.  There will be a kind of mirror-imaging in this entry.  My first entry began with a summation of the events leading up to the present and mused on how privations would increase in the future, noting the inroads that the pandemic had already made in our daily lives.  As I sum up the overall effect of the past year, today I concentrate on how the privations have been lifted and on the likelihood of our returning to normalcy soon.  And, as is appropriate for someone of my preferences, both entries contain a hike description.

I have already noted that grocery shopping (always a factor of importance in any long-term emergency) is almost completely restored to normal.  The only sign seen now from the impact of COVID is the wearing of facemasks by employees and customers alike.  No items are missing from the shelves, and people are no longer hoarding.  Bread-making activity, in all probability, has become less frequent; and yeast, which for several months was one of the most difficult items to obtain, is now available not only in individual packets but in 4-ounce jars. 

Personal health has remained unaffected, chiefly, as I believe, because I have managed to keep active during the entire period of the pandemic.  In this of course I have had certain advantages.  Unlike several countries in Europe, the U.S. never imposed any restrictions on how far one could venture out of doors for exercise.  Consequently I was able to extend my hiking over a fairly wide range, ultimately being able to traverse, in stages, the entire northern portion of the Appalachian Trail in Pennsylvania, journeying to trailheads well over a four-hour drive from my house. 

We are still wearing facemasks while walking out of doors along the streets.  In parts of the country facemasks out of doors have been abandoned altogether, and there are signs that, as a greater number of people become vaccinated, the same practice will prevail here.  The trends that have forced people to lead more isolated lives are beginning to relax, and it seems likely that social life will begin for move again.  I still keep a facemask in the car whenever I drive, even if my destination is a lonely trailhead.  It is always a possibility that I might encounter an emergency and be forced to enter a store for some unforeseen reason.  Again, if a serviceman is scheduled to show up at my house, I put on a mask before the time he is expected to arrive, so that I don’t have to make a mad dash for one before opening the door whenever he knocks.  Eventually such precautions will no longer be needed, but we are not at that stage yet.

Social life now resembles a tentative budding and germination analogous to the re-emerging plant life of early spring, primarily as a result of the rollout of the vaccines.  For instance, I will be receiving my second dose in a week, after which I will at long last be able to visit my aunt in New York and to properly celebrate her 90^th birthday, which occurred last July.  The cousin who lives in Chile is planning to visit her mother in May.  I will be able to visit the homes of people who have been vaccinated and be able to receive inoculated people in my own home.  I have already related how the Capital Hiking Club is planning to resume its hikes in a chartered bus, beginning in August.  The Wanderbirds will probably follow suit, although perhaps beginning hikes with bus rides at a later date. 

Entertainment is still in abeyance.  Some theaters and concert halls are attempting to obtain revenue through streaming performances.  I sympathize with their attempts, but I’m afraid that these are a poor substitute for live performances.  A few Broadway theaters are planning to open for various events next month, but no live productions are currently projected before autumn.  This means that everyone who obtains his or her livelihood through live performance will have been out of work for a year and a half, and how they will be able to sustain themselves over such a period I do not know.

Travel, on the other hand, is beginning to revive.  My projected visit to my aunt, as well as another trip planned in April to the Midwest, are typical of the plans of many who have received their vaccine and feel at liberty to move about after the danger of contracting the virus has become less acute.  The CDC, it is true, has recommended to hold back on travel for the time being.  But it seems likely that such recommendations will have little effect.  People are tired of being nailed down to a single location for months on end; and, with the protection that inoculation confers, the dangers of traveling seem less pressing.  At this point traveling for pleasure is mainly limited within the confines of the country.  But it is possible, even probable, that international travel will become feasible as well in the course of a few months.  Already I have two trips planned with a group of hiking friends:  one, in June, to King’s Canyon and Sequoia National Park, and the second, in September, to the French Alps.

Of course from a national point of view the two main events of the past year were the pandemic with its attendant ravages and the debacle of the national election – and the two are closely intertwined.  Had Donald Trump displayed the slightest sense of responsibility when the pandemic struck and had he encouraged the country to rally behind him in confronting it, he would have had a very good chance of winning the presidential election, in which case the sorry spectacle of his attempting a coup d’état by means of incessant lawsuits and the subsequent besiegement of the Capitol would never have taken place.  A leader who exerts a reassuring presence in the midst of a long-term national crisis is almost certain to secure the support of the electorate.  Even in the case of people whose mindsets are similar to my own – I would still have detested him for his blatant corruption, his nepotism, and his disastrous co-opting of various national agencies; I would still have voted for his opponent no matter who that opponent may have been – but I would not regard him, as I do now, as the president who presided over the most calamitous administration in the history of the nation.  (That dubious distinction would have been awarded instead either to James Buchanan or Woodrow Wilson.)   He would have gone down in history merely as a bad president, but not necessarily one of the worst.

Instead, for some inexplicable reason, from the onset he looked upon the entire pandemic crisis as a conspiracy to discredit him and hindered the efforts of everyone who had the appropriate medical knowledge or administrative powers to prevent the virus from spreading.  The steady decline in the number of COVID infections and deaths that we are currently experiencing cannot be credited to him; the merit of that belongs to Biden, who aggressively promoted the vaccines and supplied the states with resources to roll them out as rapidly as possible.  We still account for nearly 25% of all COVID infections worldwide and over 20% of all COVID-related deaths, although our population is a mere 4% of the population of the world; and this sorry result is the direct consequence of the misguided policies of Trump’s pitifully inept response to the pandemic when it first appeared.

At this point, incidentally, Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort has closed its dining room and suspended beach club services to guests due to a COVID-19 outbreak among  its staff.  “The mills of the gods grind slowly, but they grind exceedingly small.”

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 123,409,813; # of deaths worldwide: 2,721,187; # of cases U.S.: 30,479,489; # of deaths; U.S.:  554,859.  

The link to the complete journal is:  https://betulacordifolia.com/?order=asc

Volcanic eruption in Iceland – New CDC guidelines for schools – The Capital Hiking Club makes tentative plans – Evening statistics

A long-dormant volcano has erupted about 20 miles away from Reykjavik.  No evacuations are anticipated, since the nearest road is at least 1½ miles from the lava flow, but airplane was disrupted for temporarily on account of the ashes limiting visibility.  The volcano is on the Reykjanes peninsula, where unusual seismic activity has been detected for the past week.  No volcano in this range has erupted for over 800 years and Fagradalsfjall, the mountain in question, has been dormant for 6,000 years.  The lava flow is not expected to affect residents (although they have been cautioned not to travel closer to the area for viewing purposes) but in some neighborhoods closest to the eruption homeowners have been urged to close their windows in case fumes waft through. 

The CDC has relaxed its guidelines for schools, saying that students may now sit 3 feet apart from one another instead of 6 feet.  This recommendation will certainly make matters easier for schools from an administrative point of view.  The 6-foot standard used up to now has forced some schools to remove desks, stagger scheduling, and take other steps to keep children away from one another.  Many schools had already quietly disregarded the CDC guidelines long before this new standard was announced.  The CDC said 6 feet of distance should still be maintained in common areas, such as school lobbies, and when masks can’t be worn, such as when eating.  Students are still to be spaced 6 feet apart in events such as chorus practices, assemblies, and school sports , where many are singing, talking, or cheering simultaneously. 

In general, restrictions are beginning to lighten and people are looking forward to greater freedom of movement.  The Capital Hiking Club board had a meeting today (via Zoom), in which we discussed the possibility of resuming group hikes using  its chartered bus.  The tentative date for beginning these hikes is August 7^th.  Probably the number of people allowed on the bus would be well below its full capacity at first.  Riders would be required to be vaccinated beforehand and would wear masks during the bus trips.  No eating or drinking on the bus would be allowed.  As Director of Trails, I will be setting up a schedule of hikes for a three-month period up to November 6^th.  It is quite possible that the estimate of the date we can resume activity is over-optimistic and that the hikes in any schedule I devise will have to be moved forward for a number of weeks, but at any rate we now have a definite goal to strive for.  I will have a fairly free hand, since the club has not done any of its standard hikes for well over a year and there is no danger of repeating recent hikes.  The board decided that the hikes in this three-month period should be selected from the easier hikes because many in the group have not had much opportunity to get outside during the pandemic and may be out of condition.  In addition, I was asked to use hikes that will not entail a long ride to the trailhead.  But these conditions still leave a wide range of hikes to choose from and I should be able to set one up fairly easily.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 122,866,956; # of deaths worldwide: 2,712,449; # of cases U.S.: 30,423,624; # of deaths; U.S.:  553,931.  

A leisurely day – The migrants at the Mexican border – A killer’s apologist – Another bit of Trumpery – Yo-Yo Ma performs – Evening statistics

I was involved in several errands yesterday, as well as CERT training that ended at about 10:00 PM, so I had little time to follow the news.  Today was somewhat more leisurely, with no pressing errands and with extremely wet weather that discouraged outside activity.  Nonetheless I went out for a time:  walking in the rain when there is little wind and when one is equipped with an effective rain jacket, is not unpleasant.  The air was fresh and cool, but not chilly, and at times it seemed as if leaves and flowers were unfurling before my eyes.  The cherry trees are beginning to blossom and I have no doubt that in DC itself (which tends to be slightly warmer than its suburbs) they are already flowering.

The most pressing news of today is the number of illegal migrants coming over the border with Mexico.  Many of these are minors unaccompanied by parents or older relatives.  Biden has been slow in reacting to this matter and he has even imposed an unofficial gag order upon the Border Patrol as to the amount of information it can disclose to the media.  This response is unfortunate, for it is giving the Republicans fuel for their campaign to discredit him and to promote the Trump faction.  Already Biden’s approval rating has gone down as a result of his irresolution in dealing with the issue.  Several news outlets refer to those opposed to admitting the migrants as the “anti-immigration” party, but the label is an over-simplification.  One doesn’t have to be an opponent of immigration or a white supremacist to be concerned that a large number of people are entering the country without documentation of any kind.  And the dilatoriness of the administration in confronting this influx seems all but suicidal in light of the fact that we are in the midst of recovering from a pandemic.  The good effects of the aggressive policy of vaccination could be completely undone if thousands of people, almost certainly unvaccinated and all of them fleeing from a country whose medical care system is saturated with COVID cases (there are stories in Mexico of oxygen canisters being stolen from deliveries to hospitals, sometimes at gunpoint), enter the country without any sort of tracking.

From a passage in Jane Austen’s Pride and Prejudice concerning the attempt of Mrs. Philips, the sister of Mrs. Bennet, to assist the Bennet family when the youngest daughter elopes with the villainous Mr. Wickham:  she “visited them frequently, and always, as she said, with the idea of cheering and heartening them up, though as she never came without reporting some fresh instance of Wickham’s extravagance or irregularity, she seldom went away without leaving them more dispirited than she found them.”

The Atlanta police have recently been offering consolation in the style of Mrs. Philips.  Earlier this week Robert Long went on a shooting spree at three separate spas in the Atlanta area and killed eight people, the majority of whom were Asian women.  At a press conference Captain Jay Baker solemnly announced that the killings were motivated by the suspect’s sexual addiction rather than racial bias – as if that made any difference to the people who were killed or to their relatives – and rounded off this judicious assessment by saying that Long was having “a bad day.”  It isn’t exactly the same thing, I suppose, but it does appear to me that the eight people whom he slaughtered had undergone a little reverse in fortunes as well.

Donald Trump has proclaimed that the justices of the Supreme Court should be “ashamed” of not having ratified his claims that the presidential election was stolen from him. However, It seems that his influence has been waning since the day he stepped out of the Oval Office.  It could be, of course, that behind closed doors the Supreme Court justices are bewailing their error in sackcloth and ashes; but, externally at least, they appear to have suffered this rebuke with unruffled composure.  For that matter, in more than 60 post-election lawsuits, a total of 86 judges—including 38 Republican appointees and eight chosen by Trump himself—rejected all of the election challenges. Not a single Trump appointee on any court voted to support his fraud claims, not even the three whom Trump appointed to the Supreme Court.

Another regional area is undergoing a lockdown as a result of the suspension of the AstraZeneca vaccine and a growing number of cases.  Paris is now in the grip of a third wave of infections, with an incidence rate of 400 in every 100,000 inhabitants (well over 85000 total in the greater metro area and 43000 in the city alone).  President Macron has imposed a month-long lockdown in the area and in some arrondissements to the north of the city.  Barbers, clothing stores, and furniture shops are directed to close, although bookstores and others selling essential goods can stay open.  Schools will stay open and people will be allowed to exercise outdoors within a 10 km (6.2 miles) radius of their homes. Travel out of the worst-hit areas will not be permitted without a compelling reason.  At this point France will not undergo a nation-wide lockdown, although that measure has not been ruled out for the future.  But the current lockdown is far-ranging in its own right:  the greater metro area of Paris accounts for a fifth of the nation’s population and 30% of its economic activity.

In the midst of all of these stories of distress or chicanery, there is a more pleasant scene to dwell upon.  Those who received their vaccines today at the Berkshire Community College field house in Pittsfield, Massachusetts, were treated to an impromptu concert in the room where the post-vaccination waiting period was held.  The famed cellist Yo-Yo Ma brought his instrument with him and as he waited he played Schubert’s “Ave Maria” to his delighted listeners.  I met him many years ago, when my mother and her friend Eva Hornyak were running the University Community Concert series.  He was a promising young newcomer at the time (Eva Hornyak was the sister of Isaac Stern, the celebrated violinist, so she had extensive contacts in the musical community, and in addition was very shrewd in spotting upcoming young talent), but even during his earliest years his supreme musical gifts were apparent to the dullest comprehension.  And his personality, then as now, was modest and unassuming; it was a great pleasure to meet with him on a purely social level, independently of his music.

Yesterday’s statistics as of 10:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  121,805,497; # of deaths worldwide: 2,691,832; # of cases U.S.: 30,294,798; # of deaths; U.S.:  550,649.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 122,351,719; # of deaths worldwide: 2,702,255; # of cases U.S.: 30,357,206; # of deaths; U.S.:  552,303.  As a result of the third wave of the virus in the European Union nations and our own decelerating incidence rate, the U.S. has gone down on the list of nations with the highest death rates; it is now twelfth on the list instead of the tenth, as it was formerly. 

Hiking on Leading Ridge – The pandemic beginning to retreat as vaccinations increase – Controversy about the Astra-Zeneca vaccine – Evening statistics

Leading Ridge is the steepest ascent in Shenandoah National Park.  The ridge on which the trail rises meets the main ridgeline at a rather curious angle, but it is doubtful that hikers attempt the trail for viewing this configuration, particularly as there are no views at the summit.  The difficulty is the main attraction.  The trail ascends nearly 1700 feet in less than a mile, with an average grade of 31%.  In the past access to the trail was not always certain; one must pass through private property to reach the trailhead.  But in recent years the PATC has acquired an easement, and now the route to the trailhead is clearly indicated by a sign with the trail name (and also a warning not to stray from the trail onto private land) and by blazes. 

Only four of us from the Vigorous Hikers attempted it today.  The weather report in earlier days was somewhat discouraging, at times predicting a wintry mix of sleet and rain, as well as temperatures well below freezing.  But the reports this morning were less daunting and as matters turned out, we had no rain at all and temperatures in the mid-40s.  It was just as well that there were few participants; parking at the area where the trailhead can be reached is very limited.  The weather report must have discouraged others besides members of our own group, for we saw nobody on the trails at all.  To be sure, not many attempt Leading Ridge.  But we proceeded from there to complete a loop using the Hannah Run and Nicholson Hollow Trails, both of which are frequently used under more promising conditions.  The complete hike was 16 miles and somewhat over 4300 feet of ascent.  However, the ascents that we did after we completed Leading Ridge were much less arduous.  We finally descended along the Crusher Ridge Trail, which offered good views of the valley below through the trees.  This is one advantage of hiking in the winter:  when the leaves will unfurl later in the season, such views are obscured entirely.  Indeed, the hike was extremely enjoyable, despite the overcast skies and damp atmosphere.  Much of the hike along Hannah Run, Nicholson Hollow, and Crusher Ridge Trails took place alongside mountain brooks, the sound of whose gentle plashing is unusually soothing. 

There is more news about the vaccines, most of it reassuring.  More than 22 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines will be distributed in the next seven days, a new high that would send the daily average over 3 million vaccinations for the first time.  Mississippi, Alaska, and Arizona have now opened up vaccine eligibility for all state residents.  Over 110 million doses have already been administered, a significant amount for a country with a population of 332 million people.  The vaccines are starting to have an effect.  The seven-day rolling average for daily new cases in the U.S. decreased over the past two weeks from 67,570 on March 1 to 55,332 yesterday, while the average for daily deaths on those same dates dropped from 1,991 to 1,356. 

The controversy about the Astra-Zeneca vaccine, however, has slowed down the decline in cases and deaths in Europe.  It must be admitted that the nations who have placed this particular vaccine on hold have some cause.  Their reservations stem from the fact that a small number of people have developed blood clots after taking the vaccine.  The proponents of the vaccine claim that studies have shown no correlation between blood clots and the vaccine, and that the clots must therefore have been caused by something else.  But none of them have directly addressed the issue of what could have caused them.  Did the people who developed them have underlying conditions?  And why haven’t we seen such cases among recipients of the other vaccines?  Not only do these questions remain unanswered, but no one has even bothered to ask them.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  121,214,690; # of deaths worldwide: 2,681,564; # of cases U.S.: 30,189,911; # of deaths; U.S.:  549,195.

The advancing season – Unexpected benefits of the Pfizer vaccine – Lockdown in Norway – Problems with the AstraZeneca vaccine – Vaccine rollout in Brazil – Evening statistics

The temperatures are somewhat more seasonal today – but still in the mid 40s, which is not particularly chilly for the last week of winter.  Spring continues apace.  Magnolias are starting to bud and a few daffodils are in full flower.  The crocuses are already beginning to droop; theirs is a brief bloom.  Hyacinths are beginning to shoot up in my garden.  The surface serenity is to some extent reflected by the national headlines, which for the past several days have contained relatively little scandal or violence.  International news, as will be seen, is another matter.

There are promising reports of the Pfizer vaccine.  Even a single dose is 71.4% effective in preventing hospitalizations from the virus, so as I pass into the second week after receiving the vaccine my chances of getting severely ill from the COVID virus have been significantly reduced.  Also, the Israeli Ministry of Health confirmed that the Pfizer vaccine is effective in preventing inoculated persons from spreading the disease, even when they are asymptomatic.  That has always been a concern of mine:  that I might contract the disease without knowing it and then transmit the virus to my mother’s assisted living facility during a visit.  I can feel easier about my visits there now.   The vaccine has another characteristic which, however, does not affect me directly:  it may be less effective with obese people. 

Oslo will close all middle and high schools and limit visitors in private homes to two people until early April.  Norway has had a relatively low rate of infection but recently the rate has accelerated and medical experts say that the country is undergoing a third wave of the virus.  Stricter measures will be implemented for 52 municipalities surrounding the capital region, including the closure of non-essential shops and in-restaurant dining, although schools will remain open.

Part of Norway’s difficulties result from issues connected with the AstraZeneca vaccine.  This vaccine is not used here currently (its manufacturers are expected to apply for authorization in two or three weeks), but it is one of three that are being deployed throughout continental Europe.  Reports have indicated that they have led to dangerous blood clots in some recipients, although the company and European regulators claim that these are not a direct result of the vaccine.  The number of people who developed blood clots is small:  37 reports of blood clots out of more than 17 million people vaccinated in the 27-country European Union and Britain.  Nonetheless many countries have now placed the vaccine on hold, including Denmark, Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway, Iceland, Bulgaria, Germany, France, Italy and Spain.  Outside of the EU, Thailand and Congo are holding off on the AstraZeneca vaccine as well.

Health Minister Eduardo Pazuello said today that Brazil has ordered 100 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine and another 38 million of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, seeking to accelerate the hard-hit country’s lagging immunization campaign.  Only about 4.6% of the national population has received at least one vaccine dose.  Matters have not been helped by President Bolsanaro, who refuses to get vaccinated himself and encourages others to follow his example.  Brazil’s rate of infection is lower than ours, but it is still well over 5% of the population (and this data may be under-reported).  Its hospital system, however, is in much worse condition than ours.  ICU occupancy is above 80% in 21 of Brazil’s 26 states and above 90 % in 14 of these.  There are many reports of patients dying as they wait for beds to become available. 

Martial law has been declared in Yangon, the largest city of Myanmar.  The number of protesters who have been killed by the militia is now approaching 140.  At least 56 died this weekend, including 34 in the Yangon region.  The escalating violence has actually elicited a complaint from the Chinese Embassy – against the protesters.  In the course of the protests several factories for the garment industry, which is a major exporter for Myanmar, were torched by unknown perpetrators.  The majority of these factories are Chinese-run, so the concern of the Chinese ambassadors is understandable.  Property owned by their countrymen must be preserved at all costs; the fact that several dozen people are being slaughtered in as a result of a military coup is an accident for which they are not accountable. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:                 120,747,285; # of deaths worldwide: 2,671,183; # of cases U.S.: 30,135,857; # of deaths; U.S.:  547,963.  Even though the figures are still much too high, it is a pleasure to record the fact we have had less than 1,000 deaths per day for several days running.  Just a couple of months ago 3,000 deaths per day was not uncommon.  And we are accounting now for 13.5% of the new COVID cases and 12.3% of the deaths worldwide; our rates with respect to the world’s nations has been nearly halved.

On the Ridge to River Trail – Vaccination in Maryland and Virginia – Facemasks in Texas – Evening statistics

I met with AD and RH again today, along with three other hikers.  We started at the Cold Spring battlefield, taking the Ridge to River Trail to the junction with the Appalachian Trail.  On the AT we first did a there-and-back south to the Crescent Rock overlook and another one north to the sign designating the beginning of the “Roller Coaster”:  a 13.5-mile segment of the AT with many tightly-packed ascents and descents.  The Ridge to River Trail is about four miles each way and our two round trips on the AT added about 3 miles more, with a total of about 1900 feet of elevation gain.  The view from Crescent Rock looks down into the Shenandoah Valley, with a mixture of woods and cultivated fields.  Signal Knob, the outpost where the Confederate army conveyed information via semaphores to outposts further north, can be seen in the distance, at the end of the ridge in the background.  I have been on this part of the AT many times in the past, but I had never seen (or heard of, for that matter) either the Cold Spring battlefield or the Ridge to River Trail before.  We had a splendid day, somewhat warmer even than yesterday, but feeling less so on account of a steady breeze throughout most of the hike.  The wind accelerated later in the afternoon; during the drive back home one gust was strong enough to cause my car to swerve briefly. 

We conversed on several matters, especially during lunch and back at the cars when we ate snacks together:  the criteria used for determining security classifications of government data, the effect of obesity among our population upon national health, the tendency of physicians to be over-eager in prescribing novel medications and the meekness of patients in swallowing them (my companions even expressed a little surprise when I told them that my first response, whenever I am advised to take any medication, is:  “What are the potential side effects?”), and, above all, the rollout of the vaccines.  Maryland is currently in Phase 1C, which extends to adults age 65-74 and essential workers in lab services, agriculture, manufacturing, and the postal service.   Phase 2 will vaccinate people with underlying conditions who are aged 16-64, but the general populace will not be serviced until Phase 3 begins.  The phase definitions in Virginia are slightly different, but the essential situation is similar:  Virginians under the age of 65 and with no particular health issues must wait an indefinite period before they will be able to register for the vaccination.  However, Dr. Danny Avula, the coordinator of Virginia’s COVID-19 vaccine program, recently announced that the state will have no difficulty in meeting Biden’s call to make the vaccine available to people in all categories by May 1^st.  For both Maryland and Virginia, nearly 22% of the state population has received their first dose and well over 11% are fully vaccinated. 

Governor Abbott’s decision to end the mandate to wear face masks in Texas is already leading to confusion.  Although the mandate is lifted for the state, businesses still have the right to enforce their own facemask requirement on their property, and many have elected to keep such a requirement in place.  On Thursday Terry Lynn Wright entered a Bank of America in Galveston without a mask and refused to don one when requested by the bank management.  She was then asked to leave the building and refused this request as well.  The bank then called in the police – the first time that police have been called to intervene since the statewide mandate was lifted.  Ms. Wright, offended by this affront to her pride, proceeded to make a public display of herself that a better pride would have been ashamed to own.  The policeman told her to wear the mask in compliance with the rules of the bank management or to leave the building.  When she refused to do either, the officer took out handcuffs, at which point she pulled away and began to walk toward the door. The officer stopped her and forced her to the ground.  While being handcuffed, she complained that her foot was injured.  She was treated for minor injuries at a local hospital and then discharged, and was promptly arrested for criminal trespassing and resisting arrest.  Wright is certainly not unique in this queer type of stupidity with regard to facemasks, examples of which have been cited in several earlier journal entries; but Abbott’s decision to lift the mandate simply encourages this type of irresponsible behavior. Such an episode will not be unique; it is the first in what will surely be a long series of similar incidents.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  120,401,660; # of deaths worldwide: 2,664,662; # of cases U.S.: 30,081,296; # of deaths; U.S.:  547,220. 

Hiking on the Rocky Branch and Neighbor Mountain Trails – The status of COVID hospitalizations and deaths locally – Rudy Giuliani wins new nominations, but not the kind he desires – Evening statistics

The hike on which I accompanied AD and RH today was somewhat more well-defined than the one I attempted on Tuesday.  We started from Beahm’s Gap, first going down the Rocky Branch Trail to the end of the park and then backtracking and going to the junction with the Hull School Trail at the other end.  From there we ascended to the Byrd’s Nest shelter, where we had lunch, and continued along Neighbor Mountain Trail to the mountain summit.  Then we backtracked again to the junction with the Appalachian Trail and went a little over a mile on the AT back to Beahm’s Gap:  about 12 miles and 2700 feet of elevation gain.  The weather was perfect:  in the high fifties, with no wind or rain, not cold enough to chill and not warm enough to make one perspire overmuch on the steeper ascents.  I have not been on the Rocky Branch Trail for years, and even the Neighbor Mountain Trail was last visited three or four years ago, so these were practically like new trails for me.  And I don’t believe that I’ve ever been on the Neighbor Mountain Trail at this time of year.  When the foliage has not yet appeared, there are glimpses of the valley below on both sides of the trail.  The Rocky Branch Trail has fewer views to offer, but it skirts by an old cemetery (there are several of these in Shenandoah National Park, which was farmland at one time) and towards its terminus at the park boundary, where it borders private property, it features a pond that the landowner’s cattle use as a watering hole.  We were a group of six in all, and we went at a fairly good pace.  We left after 9:00 and returned well before 2:00.  At the summit of Neighbor Mountain we met two others who arrived at Beahm’s Gap rather later than we did and who took a modified version of the hike, going up Neighbor Mountain but omitting the there-and-back on the Rocky Branch Trail.  And of course, good Wanderbirds that we are, we concluded by drinking and snacking and conversing comfortably together.  How much these casual gatherings out of doors have sustained me over the past several months!  The tone of this journal would have been much gloomier without them.

The numbers for COVID hospitalizations in DC, Maryland, and Virginia have been declining, although we’re not out of the woods yet.  Maryland had 1,101 new cases today, the first time it has had more than 1,000 in a day since February 19^th.  However, the increase in hospitalizations (about 50) is still relatively low.  Virginia had more than 900 new cases today, but the weekly case average had decreased by 96.  DC reported 150 new coronavirus cases today, with two new deaths. This month, hospitalizations have dipped to 150 several times, which previously hadn’t been noted since November. In general, our region has fared better than the national average.  Maryland, Virginia, and DC rank, respectively, 44^th, 42^nd, and 45^th among states in infection rate and 32^nd, 37^th, and 28^th in mortality rate.  Probably DC would have fared even better if so many super-spreader events had not emanated from the White House.

The ultimate fate of Rudy Giuliani with respect to the suit from Dominion Voting Systems – which, if goes against him, could impoverish him for life – remains to be seen; but in the meantime he can console himself for having secured an unexpected new claim to fame.  The Golden Raspberries (affectionately known as “Razzies”) has announced its nominations for the worst film performers of the year, and Giuliani has been awarded two of them, both of which are based in his appearance in the latest Borat film:  first, as Worst Supporter Actor in his role of “Rudy Giuliani as Himself” and second, as Worst Screen Combo, in conjunction with Maria Bakalova, who played the interviewer whom he tried to grope.   In this second contest he is admittedly up against some stiff competition, seeing that the other nominees include “Robert Downey and His Utterly Unconvincing ‘Welsh’ accent” in the remake of Doolittle.  I have confidence, however, that Giuliani will receive the distinction that he fully deserves.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  120,035,427; # of deaths worldwide: 2,658,887; # of cases U.S.: 30,043,499; # of deaths; U.S.:  546,567. 

A quiet day – Don’t walk the roads in South Dakota – The situation in Myanmar worsens – Italy’s new lockdown – Vaccine rollouts – Evening statistics

It was an uneventful day, both at home and on the national front.  A few odds and ends are to be gleaned from the headlines.  The stimulus package has been passed and people should begin receiving checks, perhaps as early as this weekend.  President Biden came out strongly against attacks on Asian-Americans – which perhaps would not be worth remarking upon at all, were it not for the fact that such attacks were rather encouraged under the previous administration, as a follow-up of various xenophobic remarks from you-know-who.  Most of the highlights have been international.

The only exception concerns South Dakota Attorney General Jason Ravnsborg, who struck a pedestrian fatally with his car on the night of September 12^th.  The case has come to court at last, after a five-month investigation, where he pleaded not guilty.  Ravnsborg’s account was that he thought at first that he had struck a deer, and that he had searched the unlit area with a cellphone flashlight and didn’t realize he had killed a man until the following day.  This account would sound more plausible if it were not for the fact that that the man’s face had smashed through the windshield and his glasses had been found in Ravnsborg’s Ford Taurus after the crash.  But the investigation that followed came up with only three misdemeanor charges:  operating a vehicle while using a mobile electronic device, illegal lane change, and careless driving. The maximum penalty for each is 30 days in jail and a $500 fine, meaning he could serve, at most, 90 days behind bars for the crash.  South Dakota, it appears, does not have a negligent homicide law.  Governor Kristi Noem and various law enforcement groups have called for Ravnsborg’s resignation, but up to this point he has refused to step down.  Even if he emerges with no more than misdemeanor charges from the trial, his troubles are by no means at an end; the victim’s widow plans to file a civil suit against him, while South Dakota lawmakers are considering whether he should be impeached after the case concludes, regardless of its outcome. 

There is no word of where Suu Kyi is being held or how she is faring.  The U.S. has been trying to contact her and other officials in the NLD party who are currently in detention, but without success.  Two of them have already been killed.  More than 70 civilians are now dead and at least 2,000 more are in detention.  The U.S. has imposed export sanctions and is urging China to join in pressuring the military government to release its detainees.  The U.S. Secretary of State will be meeting with Chinese officials on the 18^th to discuss various issues and to take steps in thawing the relationship between the two nations; it is unclear whether the situation in Myanmar will be on the agenda.

Italy will be closing shops, restaurants, and schools in Rome and Milan, its most populous regions, as a result of a new surge of COVID infections.  Residents will be required to stay at home except for purposes of work, health, or other essential reasons.  These restrictions will last until Easter, and perhaps beyond.  It sounds extreme, but on the other hand cases have been surging over the past six weeks to the extent of 25,000 new cases per day.  To put that in perspective, the U.S. has lately been seeing about 50,000-70,000 new cases per day, with over five times as much population.  And Italy’s death from the COVID virus is significantly higher than ours, about 3.2%. 

Israel has inoculated more than 50% of its population.  Those who have been vaccinated (both doses) and those who had contracted COVID-19 but have recovered from it are given a “green pass,” which enables them to enter restaurants, gyms, theaters, and other places where people used to congregate in close physical proximity.  Already people are behaving as if the pandemic has been put behind them, dining together in groups and congregating in open air markets – although they are still wearing facemasks.  Israel is well ahead of other countries in this respect.  The United Arab Emirates has the next highest amount of its population inoculated, and plans to see about half its population receive both doses by the end of the month.  The U.K., Chile, Bahrain, and the U.S. are next on the list, with 36, 32, 31, and 29 doses per 100 people respectively.  Chile is aiming for a goal of at least 15 million people receiving at least one dose by the end of June (its total population is about 19 million).  After recording for months on end our nation’s dismal record in coping with the virus, it is a great relief to find that we are actually rolling out the vaccine more efficiently than the majority of other nations.  To my astonishment, we are averaging about three times as many doses per capita than Germany.  Wonders will never cease!

 Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  119,594,324; # of deaths worldwide: 2,650,731; # of cases U.S.: 29,991,077; # of deaths; U.S.:  545,383.  The figures for the U.S. are certainly undergoing a downward trend.  Today Americans accounted for 13.3% of the new cases and 14.6% of the deaths – still disproportionately high, but significantly lower than they were in January. 

What is “normal” body temperature? – Our misaligned social relations – A message of recovery – COVID and obesity – Evening statistics

I omitted in my last entry to mention two moments that stood out during CERT training yesterday.  The first occurred when I had my temperature taken as part of check-in.  The person reading the thermometer was startled by the results when he took my temperature, and he asked me whether I had done a round of vigorous exercise just before coming to the training area.  I had to explain to him that my normal body temperature is typically about a degree below the standard 98.6 degrees. 

I was sufficiently curious to see whether there were others in my situation.  Apparently it is fairly typical; in fact, the 97.5 – 97.7 degree range may be the “new normal.”  The 98.6-degree standard was determined in 1851, at which time a significant number of people suffered from untreated infections such as gum disease, tuberculosis, and syphilis, all of which could have caused persistent fevers.  In addition, temperatures at that date were usually taken under the arm rather than by mouth, and thermometers then were probably not as accurate as those made today.  The data thus may have been skewed when compared to that collected by modern measurement methods.  In any case, body temperatures fluctuate a bit on any given day, and a discrepancy of a degree in either direction does not appear to be serious. 

The other came when one of the trainers was talking about how it was important to be prepared when confronted by cultural differences when attempting to rescue people.  As an example she mentioned that she had been in situations when a person in difficulties was reluctant to accept aid from her because she was black.  I was shocked when I heard this, whereas her own attitude was essentially:  “Hey, it happens, that’s one reason we go in teams.”  But to me It reinforced the message that Martin Luther King once gave:  when injustice is endemic in a society, the entire society suffers.  Whenever a black person meets someone for the first time, he must undergo a moment of doubt as to whether this new acquaintance is going to accept him as a person rather than a representative of his race.  As long as this impasse prevails, we’ll never make any real progress in social relations.

On a less depressing note, President Biden is directing all states to open coronavirus vaccine eligibility to all adults no later than May 1st, a step he will say could allow for small Independence Day gatherings on July 4th.  This measure will represent the most aggressive step towards re-opening to date.  Even so, the gatherings will be limited:  barbecues in the backyard rather than massive crowds at a stadium watching fireworks.  By the end of May the supply of vaccines should be sufficient to provide inoculation for every person who wants it.  The timing of the distribution is another story, particularly in rural areas.  I myself know several people who have been awaiting their turn to get vaccinated with no sign of being able to make an appointment for one for at least several weeks.  The rollout in Virginia has certainly accelerated this week.  All the same, of the 308,086 people who are currently registered in Fairfax County for the vaccine, 111,453 are still on the waitlist – and these all must receive their vaccines for completion of Phase 1b.

During the hike on Tuesday, one member of the group and I discussed the question of why the rate of infection and death from COVID is much less in countries such as India.  We speculated about many possible explanations, but we overlooked the most obvious one.  The World Obesity Federation recently issued a report showing a clear link between excess body weight, obesity in particular, and COVID-19 mortality. Being overweight was more predictive of severe COVID-19 illness than any factor with the exception of age. In countries where less than half the adult population was classified as overweight, the risk of death from the coronavirus was about one-tenth the level found in nations where more than half are overweight or obese.  Mexico, for example, has an age distribution comparable to India’s.  But only 3.9% of India’s adult population is categorized as obese, whereas Mexico’s obesity rate is 28.9%.  The correlation between obesity and risk of COVID-related infection and death is borne out by a comparison of the two countries’ rates:  India has little over half of the infections per capita than Mexico’s and well under one-tenth of the deaths. 

The U.S., incidentally, has an obesity rate of 42.4%.  The rate has been steadily rising; in 2008 the obesity rate was a comparatively modest 26%.  As recently as 2012, no state had an adult obesity rate above 35%; in 2000 no state had an adult obesity rate above 25%. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  119,097,838; # of deaths worldwide: 2,640,870; # of cases U.S.: 29,922,897; # of deaths; U.S.:  543,599. 

An “epic” hike – The CHC considers resumption of bus rides – Merrick Garland confirmed as Attorney General – Evening statistics

GC, a friend with whom I have performed some of my most ambitious hikes, has particular criteria for a hike to deserve the epithet of “epic.”  It is not sufficient for a hike merely to be strenuous.  It must involve going off of defined trails, provide a measure of difficulty in finding the way to the destination, and offer a challenge in the ruggedness of the terrain.  The hike that I participated in yesterday amply fulfilled these conditions.

The hike consisted of two bushwhacks, one of which I had done several years ago, albeit in the direction that was the reverse of the one we used yesterday.  Still, it offered no surprises.  We descended down a trail that went outside of Shenandoah National Park to a country road until we reached the park boundary again.  From there we crossed a stream and bushwhacked upwards along the stream.  The object of the bushwhack is to see a waterfall that cannot be reached by the defined trails, and it is well worth seeing.  The water streams over a rock wall several dozen feet high, culminating in a limpid pool at the base.  The weather, moreover, provided the ideal conditions in which to view it; clear and warm, without being oppressive or humid.  After we left the falls the ascent became much steeper and the undergrowth was dense at times, which slowed our progress considerably.  But we were able to locate the trail that returned to Skyline Drive without too much difficulty.  The trail ended at an overlook, where we had lunch, and then we began the second part of the hike.

So far, this description does not sound especially toilsome.  And indeed the second part was deceptively easy in the beginning.  We descended about 3½ miles along a fire road to a stream crossing, and then we followed an old trail until it came to a point where it was no longer maintained.  Even so, the undergrowth was not difficult to get through and it was easy to follow for a time.  Eventually, however, it petered out and we had to struggle through, snaking our way through breaks in the rock wall of the river gorge and crossing the stream on occasion.  Eventually we came upon another trail that led to a junction with an old road and, after about a tenth of a mile further on, to the second waterfall.  This waterfall was a bit of a disappointment.  We could view it only from a distance, partly obscured by trees.  And here we made our great mistake.

Some of the group members wanted to view the waterfall at a better angle, so we left the trail and went upwards through an area that not only was steep but was covered with undergrowth.  As matters turned out, even as we got closer it was impossible to get a full view of the falls; we never could find an angle at which the trees did not get in the way. 

At this point we had to begin our return.  We had descended about two thousand feet and we knew that the way upward would be strenuous.  The old road that we had passed offered the most straightforward way of getting back up to one of the park trails.  But we had climbed a couple of hundred feet and had crossed a branch of the stream in pursuit of this elusive better view of the falls, and some were reluctant to reverse the effort we had made in arriving at our current position.  I was dubious about the proposal to continue going straight upwards, for the incline was very steep.  We had had dry weather for the past few days, but I was apprehensive the amount of rainfall in the previous week would make the soil underneath loose in places.  But complaint or argument would have been idle, for I could not possibly have found the return route on my own.  So we went on, and as we did so the footing became more and more insecure. 

Then one of the members in our group stepped in a spot where the earth gave way and he took a bad fall, causing his ankle to brush against a rock.  There had been other falls earlier in the hike – I took one myself at the end of a stream crossing, but it ended in nothing worse getting my shoes and socks and some portion of my trousers wet, not a significant issue when the atmosphere is warm enough to provide no danger of chilling or frostbite.  But this fall caused a serious injury.  At first we were apprehensive that the ankle had been broken, but after he attempted to get up on his feet and put his weight on it, he found that he was able to walk.   The ankle, however, was badly gashed and bled copiously.  We had to bind it up before we continued our journey.

It was clear that we could no longer go straight upward.  DG, the hike leader, set out on a new route that went parallel with the trail that we had used between the road and the waterfall.  Eventually the road would begin to ascend and the idea was that we would eventually be able to reach it.  Going through this area was sheer torment.  The footing undoubtedly was firmer and there no longer was much danger of sliding downwards, but there was no path of any description and everywhere we turned overhanging twigs and branches constantly impeded the way.  And when DG and I finally reached the old road, we made the belated discovery that none of the other members of the group were behind us.

Eventually RT, another member of the group who had taken a different route to the old road, rejoined us, but there were five other members that had to be accounted for.  DG retraced his steps and called and blew his whistle to signal them, but they were out of hearing.  By this time it was past five o’clock and we were forced to continue if we were to reach our cars by twilight.  There were several different possible scenarios to look forward to:

1. We could reach the parking area and meet the others there waiting for us.  They had gotten a significant head start on us because DG had searched for them for several minutes, so this outcome was not only possible, but likely.
2. We could reach the parking are only to find the cars of the others gone.  In that case we would have inferred that they reached the parking area and had taken off, after growing tired of waiting for us.
3. We could overtake them on the trail that led to the parking lot.  Since one of the five had been injured, they almost certainly were going at a slower pace than we three were.
4. We could arrive at the parking area and not find them there, with the cars parked in the position we had left them in the morning.  At that point we would have to notify the rangers that five hikers were missing.

We earnestly hoped that this last scenario would not be the one we would have to face.  The rangers would not have been pleased.  Searching for people who have become lost wandering on trails is always difficult and it becomes doubly so after nightfall; when the people to be rescued are known not to be on any recognized trail at all, the situation becomes nightmarish. 

Matters turned out reasonably well in the end.  We followed the old road, which had not been maintained and contained a few obstacles in the form of fallen tree limbs and patches of undergrowth, but which on the whole was relatively easy to follow.  From there we reached the trail that led back to Skyline Drive.  Within the last mile we came across four of the hikers who had separated from us.  The fifth had gone ahead to the parking area because they thought we had already arrived there and she was dispatched to tell us that they were safe.

That was not quite the end of the adventure.  The hiker who had fallen and been injured earlier had been weakened by loss of blood and dehydration, and his legs had cramped to the extent that he was having difficulty in moving.  When we joined up with the others he was resting on the ground and was uncertain whether he could manage the distance that remained (about half a mile, a formidable distance if you’re in a state in which it causes sharp pain for every step you take).  Fortunately, being subject to such cramps myself after over-exertion, I always carry salt tablets with me while hiking.  I provided a few of these to him and they were reasonably effective.  At length he was able to get to his feet and move again without pain.

The hike was over fifteen miles and involved more than 4200 feet of ascent.  It would have been a significant undertaking in the best of circumstances.  It was not surprising that we were all very tired by the end.  When I add that the return drive took about two hours, no one will astonished at the fact that by the time I reached home I was conscious of two imperative needs:  first, to prepare food and consume a much-needed dinner and second, to take a warm shower, as much to drive off the chill derived from being clad in clothes moist with perspiration as for cleansing purposes.  During these activities a third pressing need became apparent to me as well:  namely, to take to my bed and collapse in a kind of torpid stupor that might conceivably pass for slumber.

I was too tired to compose an entry for yesterday after these events, or even to obtain the daily statistics.  After a brief repose of 9 hours or so, however, my spirits and energy are restored and I am able to contemplate the hike I have described in a somewhat calmer state of mind.  It was not a wasted effort by any means.  The first waterfall of the hike was lovely; the streams that we paralleled contained many smaller cascades that sparkled and danced in the sunlight; the views from the Hazeltop Ridge overlook provided views of the distant peaks in the southern section of the park; the area enclosing the Conway River, the second of the two streams we explored, has a wild beauty of its own.  If it were not for the mistake we made in straying from the pre-prepared route, it would have been a strenuous but quite a rewarding hike.  As it was, it was an object lesson in what should be a fixed rule for any hiker:  never hesitate to backtrack if you have reason to believe that you have made a wrong turn along the way.

Among the emails awaiting me upon my return – which, however, I did not open until today, being too tired yesterday to use the workstation at all – was one from PF, the director of the Capital Hiking Club, asking board members to meet on a day in the coming week, with a view of discussing the resumption of the club’s hikes.  It is possible that setting up rides in chartered buses, as we have done in the past, may become feasible during the next few months.

Various errands claimed my attention today, and consequently I have not spent much time looking at the news.  There is, however, at least one noteworthy item:  Merrick Garland is now the Attorney General, five years after the motion spear-headed by Mitch McConnell prevented him from securing a place in the Supreme Court, determined that he would never obtain a prominent position in the national judicial system.  Latterly, however, McConnell has not been particularly successful in his resolutions, and on the current occasion he actually voted in Garland’s favor, perceiving that he would gain nothing by opposing the nomination. 

Today’s statistics as of 10:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  118,630,045; # of deaths worldwide: 2,631,996; # of cases U.S.: 29,862,124; # of deaths; U.S.:  542,191.  I cite the numbers from a later time than usual because I was occupied with CERT training tonight.

Guidelines for the vaccinated – First travel plans – The shift in emphasis in the entries – The last of Trump’s lawsuits against the election – Evening statistics

The CDC has released guidelines for Americans who are fully vaccinated.  They may get together with other fully vaccinated individuals in small groups inside their homes without masks or physical distancing. They can also visit with unvaccinated people from one other household who are at low risk for severe disease.  In addition, they will not have to quarantine or take a COVID test for traveling across state borders.  At this point about 18% of the population has been vaccinated, so it is still advisable to wear masks and practice social distancing in large gatherings, if only to protect others.

All of which means that, on a personal level, I will soon be able to visit the homes of friends who have been vaccinated and to invite them as guests.  The first such visit has already been planned.  The trip to New York to see my aunt and to celebrate her 90^th birthday, originally scheduled for July, 2020, will occur in April.  I will also be making arrangements later on for staying a night or so in the Monongahela Forest area to hike in West Virginia and in the area close to Buchanan to hike in central Virginia.  Perhaps, still later in the year, I will be able to stay in a convenient location to tackle the New Jersey portion of the Appalachian Trail as well.

The personal note is recurring in these memoirs, for two reasons.  The first is that, as the new guidelines suggest, things are starting to move again.  In future months my calendar will no longer consist solely of doctor or dentist appointments and visits from repairmen.  As more people in my circle receive the vaccine, parties will begin – small and tentative at first, no doubt, but by degrees getting back to normal.  I don’t intend to rush matters and, despite the recommendations of Governor Abbott of Texas, I have not jettisoned my facemasks.  But no longer will I feel obligated to confine my activities within the compass of a two- or three-hour radius from my home once I receive my second dose.

The other reason is that there is a good deal less to report on the national front.  By that I do not mean that business is at a standstill in the White House or that there is not the usual assortment of national and international situations that require careful handling – such as the recent coup in Myanmar, for instance.  But the extraordinary atmosphere of calm now prevailing in the nation’s capital may be gauged when I relate that during the past six weeks of the current administration, not one member of the White House staff has been abruptly sent packing, not one highly placed official has been caught in the middle of financial defalcations or of forcing his attentions on nubile young women, and, most remarkable of all, there has not been a single temperamental rant or any display of pitiably unjustified boasting on the part of our President.  It seems incredible.  Over the past four years it appeared almost a law of nature that every 5 days or thereabouts the news headlines would broadcast the unceremonious dismissal of a White House staff member, accompanied by maledictions stigmatizing him or her as incompetent, stupid, or crazy, perhaps for no worse offense than omitting the mandatory daily grovel; or an outbreak of churlish disparagement of a judge who asserted his judicial independence by favoring the law over the President’s wishes to cover up some murky financial skullduggery; or an ignominious squabble with a state governor of the opposing political party at the expense of the health and welfare of all of the state’s residents; or a speech gloating about his achievements with such an exaggerated degree of rhodomontade as to cause murmurs of alarm among members of his own party; or – but I omit the other (and numerous) categories of scandal that afflicted the previous administration, for fear of being tedious.  At all events, there is nothing of that nature to report now, which perhaps has the effect of making my daily entries less lively than before.

Trump has not quite eluded the headlines today, albeit not in the manner he desired:  the Supreme Court has rejected both his lawsuit to challenge the state’s election results by alleging Wisconsin officials imposed “unauthorized absentee voting practices” without the state legislature’s consent and the lawsuit brought by pro-Trump attorney Lin Wood against Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger and other election officials in the state, which tried to stop the Jan. 5 Senate runoff elections in the state.  These are the last two lawsuits remaining of the dozens Trump has lobbied in his attempt to remain in office after he was voted out, so he will have to rely on other means to win his way back to power.  As the events of January 6^th have shown, he is not particularly fastidious in choosing them.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  117,737,737; # of deaths worldwide: 2,611,556; # of cases U.S.: 29,693,959; # of deaths; U.S.:  537,827. 

First dose at last! – The vaccination procedure – Effects of the vaccine on short-term behavior and long-term travel plans – Evening statistics

I received the first dose of the Pfizer vaccine today.  The procedure was somewhat different than what I had imagined it to be.  When I took tests earlier to determine whether or not I was virus-free there generally was a bit of a wait.  People were tested one at a time and that circumstance made for a waiting line – not a particularly troublesome one, but there was a delay between checking in and getting the test.  On this occasion the bulk of the time was taken up by check-in to verify that I had a valid appointment and a 10-minute waiting time afterwards to ensure that I had no severe allergic reaction to the vaccine.  The vaccination itself was completed in a couple of minutes.  Once my appointment was verified I was directed to go to a large room containing several dozen stations, each of them manned by two nurses, one for administering the vaccine and one for entering data for the vaccination (name of patient, date of birth, time of vaccine, etc.) into the database.  Nurses, in my experience, have become increasingly adept at administering vaccination shots, but the nurse I met today was simply amazing.  I felt just the slightest possible touch on my arm and a faint tingle as the needle entered, so slight and so quickly injected that I couldn’t believe at first that she had completed the insertion.  Afterwards I was sent to a waiting room and directed to wait for ten minutes.  Then I left to return back home, where I immediately made an appointment for my second dose and scanned the vaccination card given to me at the time of the vaccine.  The Pfizer doses are administered at slightly briefer intervals than the Moderna one.  In this case it will be exactly three weeks:  my next appointment is for the 28^th.  I had no sense of fatigue or feverishness afterwards; only a slight soreness on my arm, so mild that there was no need to take aspirin or Tylenol (which was recommended if I were to feel significant pain). 

To what extent this experience is typical remains to be seen.  I know of others who have received their vaccinations under considerably more chaotic considerations.  My vaccination occurred at an INOVA hospital and medical research center, and the appointment was made through Fairfax County (as opposed to pharmacies such as CVS or Safeway), so those may be factors in the streamlining of the process I witnessed today.

Daily habits will not be much affected by the inoculation.  I will still be wearing a mask in public places such as grocery stores and in heavily frequented areas out of doors.  The Pfizer vaccine is the most affective of the three vaccines currently in circulation, but a 95% efficacy rate means that there is a 1-in-20 chance of getting infected even after the vaccination.  More importantly, it is quite possible to get exposed to the disease and to have all symptoms suppressed by the vaccine, in which case I could conceivably be a source of danger to others without knowing it if I go unmasked in public areas.  But visiting friends who have been inoculated will become much easier – it will no longer be necessary, for example, to hold all friendly calls out of doors. 

After I receive the second dose I will feel easier in my mind about traveling, so I hope to see my aunt next month and celebrate her 90^th birthday in person, which is long overdue; her birthday is in July.  Also I can stay overnight in places so that I can attempt certain hikes without driving three or four hours each way – for instance, the hike at Spruce Knob and Seneca Creek.  My goal of hiking the Appalachian Trail through New Jersey is more problematic; at this date; the state applies quarantine requirements for all out-of-state travelers, even if they have been vaccinated.  Pennsylvania has recently rescinded its quarantine requirements, so at the worst I could stay for a night or so in Delaware Water Gap while pursuing this project. 

More ambitious travel is planned for later in the year.  LM has organized two trips, one to King’s Canyon and Sequoia National Park in June (this trip was originally scheduled for 2020 and had to be abandoned on account of the travel restrictions) and one in the French Alps during September.  The John Muir Lodge and the Grant Cove Cabins, where we are supposed to be staying for the King’s Canyon/Sequoia trip, are scheduled to re-open on April 2^nd, so our group will be among its earliest visitors.  Each of us will bring a supply of masks, whether vaccinated or not; the masks are, thankfully, required in the airport and on the airplane.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  117,431,172; # of deaths worldwide: 2,604,787; # of cases U.S.: 29,693,959; # of deaths; U.S.:  537,827.  Less than 40,000 new cases today and a little over 700 deaths, the lowest amounts seen in days.  As Napoleon’s mother would say, “Pourvu que ça dure!”  (If only it lasts.)

The Fort Duncan hike – The effect of COVID on the entertainment industry – The malevolently uncanny power of Donald Trump – State restrictions being lifted, perhaps prematurely – Evening statistics

We had a splendid hike today, one of the most enjoyable I’ve experienced in a long time.  Starting from the NPS parking area close to Fort Duncan, we bushwhacked to the site of the fort, where the trench lines and the pits for storing ammunition are easy to discern.  From there we went down one ridge and over another, in the course of which we stopped at an overlook with extensive views of the Potomac River and the bank slightly north of Harper’s Ferry.  From there we descended to the C&O Canal, went along the canal path to the Maryland Heights Trail, went to the Maryland Heights overlook and back, and stopped for lunch close to the point where we descended.  Finally we went along the canal path in the opposite direction, went on the remains of an old road to go through the shaft of an abandoned iron mine, and bushwhacked back to the parking area.  The forest trees were fairly densely spaced and there were obstacles in the form of numerous tree limbs and branches on the ground, but there was relatively little undergrowth and few brambles; so that the bushwhacking portions were not unduly difficult.  Part of the enjoyment I received came from the fact that I’ve never done this hike before, and it is always pleasant to embark on a new hike; but the views of the Potomac flowing rapidly with its wavelets brushing against the banks, and the scrambling through the mine shaft, with its nearly perpendicular rock walls on either side, were especially satisfying.  There were twelve of us in all, a good number for a group that had to keep closely together so as not to get lost during the bushwhacks; and afterwards we partied as usual with drinks and snacks in the parking area.  The parking area is rather limited and we nearly filled it with our cars, but it is also rather difficult to find and it does not abut any recognized trailhead; so we occupied it in undisputed possession. 

Today is an anniversary of sorts.  Last year on this date I went with RK to the Harris Theater at George Mason University to attend a concert by the King Singers.  The memory is notable because I have not been able to attend any theater performance since that time.  I mention this not in the spirit of feeble complaint, but as an indication of the fact that even though we have recovered some of the ground lost since the onset of the pandemic, we have a long way to go.  From a strictly personal point of view, of course, the lack of opportunities to attend concerts and theater performances is merely an inconvenience.  But for many people it is a source of livelihood:  not only those whom we see on stage, such as actors, musicians, conductors, singers, and dancers, but also those who work behind the scenes, such as directors, producers, set designers, lighting crews, ticket office workers, and so on.  It has been a hard year for them indeed, with their main source of income having dried up and with no immediate relief in sight.  One friend of mine is a part-time clown, and before the pandemic started a substantial amount of his income came from performing at private parties.  That sort of activity is out of the question now.  Broadway has been closed since March 12, 2020.  There is talk of allowing the shows to reopen in May, but October seems to be a more probable date.  Live performers will thus be without visible means of support for more than a year and a half.  My brother is one of the more fortunate ones:  he is an animator, and most of the work he and his colleagues execute can be done comfortably via online meetings and at desktops from their homes. 

If I sometimes seem to be obsessed with our former president, I have my reasons.  The man himself at this point is of small account in his own right, but even in his defeat he manages to possess his strange power of depleting every vestige of manhood from his former associates. The latest example of this phenomenon is Mike Pence, who recently issued an op-ed criticizing the “irregularities” of the November election.  Pence, it may be remembered, was one of the targets of the Capitol rioters because he would not interfere with the electoral process, even to the extent of their uttering death threats against him.  After the riot occurred, those closest to him reported that he was deeply angered, particularly against Trump, who refused to call off the rioters’ actions and who spoke of him dismissively.  Yet all of that appears to be forgotten a bare two months after the event, as he aligns himself solidly with the very same people who attempted to lynch him.  If I lived in an earlier age, I probably would end up accusing Trump of witchcraft.  If he were at all charismatic or possessed a winning personality I could better understand the grip he exerts upon his followers, however mistaken I might believe them to be.  But his manners seem to me every bit as objectionable as his morals.  Can someone explain to me why so many respectable men and women treat him with the craven subservience of eunuchs in the court of an Oriental potentate?

More states are lifting restrictions, despite the warnings of health authorities such as Fauci.  Capacity limits on businesses in Arizona are abolished, although masks are still required. South Carolina’s mask mandate in government buildings has been lifted, although masking in restaurants is still required.   California will allow amusement parks, outdoor sports, and live events at stadiums to restart April 1, with reduced capacity and mandatory masks.  New York City now has limited indoor dining, while Connecticut’s capacity limits on restaurants, offices, and gyms will end this month. We seem to be repeating the mistake of the previous summer.  The virus had appeared to reach a plateau in June; and instead of consolidating and waiting for a definite reverse trend, governors across the nation eased restrictions, at which point the rate of infection promptly increased.  The recent figures are certainly encouraging, but they don’t seem to justify the optimism that some state governors are displaying.  For instance, over the past seven days the average number of new cases was about 61,000, the lowest amount since October.  But it is still the same as the rate of increase during the summer of 2020 at its peak.  Again, the number of new deaths has been falling steadily.  But it is still about 2,000 per day. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  117,067,001; # of deaths worldwide: 2,599,176; # of cases U.S.: 29,653,190; # of deaths; U.S.:  537,118.  The number of new cases here was 14% of the number of new cases worldwide, and the number of deaths was 19% of deaths worldwide, so I suppose that’s an improvement.

Appointment for the first vaccine dose – The vaccine boycotters – Calculating risks in a probabilistic world – A rioter from the Trump administration – Evening statistics

Today was occupied with many mundane errands, income taxes among them.  But I have at last obtained an appointment to receive the COVID vaccine.  The process for setting it up was somewhat convoluted.  Fairfax County sent a text to me, stating that I was eligible for an appointment and to check my Email for a notice with details on how to schedule an appointment.  I accordingly checked my Email and found no notice from the county at all.  So I called the number for contacting the county operations and eventually (the use of the adverb is justified, for the process over half-an-hour) spoke with a representative who told me to set up an online account with INOVA, from which I would be able to make the appointment.  This I have done, and indeed I was able to make an appointment for Sunday.  I do not see how setting up such an account can be done by those who are not what is called “computer-literate.”  Among other things, it required a scanned image of the fronts and backs of my medical insurance cards.  I have a printer/scanner at my home, so I could supply these without difficulty; but those who do not have the appropriate equipment would probably have to go to a store to scan the cards for them and then transfer them from either a disk or an Email attachment. 

I have written about how the demand for COVID vaccines has been far exceeding the supply (and indeed I know several in neither Phase 1A or 1B who are getting increasingly anxious about the length of time they will have to wait to receive one), but a significant amount of Americans claim that they will refuse the vaccine.  About 23% of Republicans said that they “definitely” will not receive one of the available vaccines and an additional 21% said that they “probably” would not get immunized.  Among the Democrats, by way of contrast, only 7% have said that they will not get vaccinated. 

These objectors cite safety concerns and it is true that there is some risk involved:  the vaccines are new, and we can’t be certain about how effective they will be in the long run.  All the same, this type of reaction demonstrates what my late father observed about the difficulties people have in coping with what he called the “probabilistic universe,” which he attributed to the average American student’s lack of mathematical training.  There are two separate issues here.  Some people have gone into anaphylaxis, which is a severe and potentially life-threatening condition.  Some have contracted the disease after receiving the vaccine – which is only to be expected, for there is no vaccine that has a 100% success rate.  The efficacy rate for the Pfizer, Moderna, and Janssen vaccines are 95%, 94%, and 85% respectively; in negative terms, about 5%, 6%, and 15% respectively may contract the disease after receiving the vaccine.  It is still a little early to get firm data about the risk of incurring anaphylaxis after receiving the vaccine, but so far the results indicate that it is about 4.7 cases per million doses for the Pfizer vaccine and 2.5 per million doses for the Moderna vaccine; in most cases, moreover, the people thus affected have had a medical history of severe allergies and, in some instances, previous episodes of anaphylaxis. 

The risks attendant on taking the vaccine, however, have to be weighed against the risk of being getting infected with the disease, which at this point has been contracted by nearly 9% of all Americans.  The death rate among those who contract the disease is currently about 1.8%, which works out to 1.6 deaths per every 1000 of the total population.  The rate of those who have sustained significant organ damage (to the lungs in particular) as a result of the virus is at this point unknown, but it is higher than the mortality rate.  No one can guarantee total safety or total immunity after taking the vaccine, but the risk of declining to receive it is significantly higher.  As the mathematicians would say, “QED.” 

The Justice Department has by now charged more than 300 people who participated in the January 6^th Capitol siege, but one in particular is noteworthy.  Federico Klein is the first official appointed directly by Trump to face the DOJ’s allegations.  Klein was seen on video assaulting police officers, attempting to take items from them, and assaulting them with a riot shield. The court documents allege he ‘violently shoved the shield into an officer’s body in an attempt to breach the police line.”  Klein was an employee of the Department of State and possessed a Top Secret clearance; he resigned on January 19^th, the day before Biden’s inauguration.  He is the first member of the Trump political administration to be charged in connection with the riot.  He occupied a fairly low-level position, but possibly this case may pave the way for the proverbial bigger and better things. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  116,650,517; # of deaths worldwide: 2,591,104; # of cases U.S.: 29,593,006; # of deaths; U.S.:  535,560. 

The approach of spring – Peace at the Capitol – Escalation of violence in Myanmar – The investigation of the election in Georgia – Evening statistics

Spring is coming early this year.  I went along the Burke Lake/Lake Mercer route, where I saw numerous crocuses and hellebore in full bloom.  Buds are beginning to form on the cherry trees.  I passed by several vernal ponds, where frogs were continually peeping.  The trees on Vesper Island in the center of Burke Lake were adorned with heron’s nests and in the thick of the woods starlings were flocking by the thousands, chattering at a volume that made the term “murmuration” something of an understatement. 

Sometimes the absence of news is a good deal better than the alternative.  The attempt on the Capitol anticipated today failed to materialize, either because it was called off or because the rumors about it were overblown.  The House of Representatives had already canceled their session today in advance, not wishing to undergo a repetition of the experience of January 6^th.  But the deployment of National Guard troops does not appear to overstep the bounds of common prudence.  It is just as well to err on the side of caution, especially after such a proof that QAnon members have given of their disdain for the law.

The death toll in Myanmar is rising.  At least 54 protesters have been shot by the militia.  The Commerce Department has imposed trade sanctions against the military government and the Federal Reserve of New York blocked an attempt by the country’s rulers to move $1 billion in funds.  The U.N. has condemned the violence as “unacceptable,” and their rebuke has been met with all of the success that U.N. resolutions against oppressive regimes generally have. 

The criminal investigation about Trump’s attempted interference with the election in Georgia has entered a new phase.  Two grand juries have convened today, and Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis already notified Georgia state officials in February, requesting them to preserve relevant documents.  Trump could potentially be charged with the solicitation of election fraud, conspiracy, and racketeering, all of which are felonies that incur significant amounts of time in prison.  This brings up an interesting question:  if she is able to obtain a verdict of “Guilty” from a grand jury, will any judge have the firmness to impose a jail sentence upon a former President of the United States?  

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  116,206,172; # of deaths worldwide: 2,580,784; # of cases U.S.: 29,525,224; # of deaths; U.S.:  531,652. 

The pandemic begins to wane – Precautions at the Capitol – CERT training – Evening statistics

More good news on the virus front:  hospitalizations have dropped by half in many states since the records set in January.  Only three states – Florida, New York, and Texas – have reported more than 5,000 cases yesterday.  During the month of January, 29 states had over 300 people hospitalized per million residents.  Now only four states – Georgia, New Jersey, New York, and D.C. – have between 200 and 300 people hospitalized per million residents, and all the others have less than 200.   The 54,248 new cases reported yesterday is the lowest number of new cases reported on a Tuesday since October 13^th.

Over 5,000 National Guard troops are being deployed around the Capitol.  The QAnon group has claimed that Trump will return to power on March 4^th, the original date for a presidential inauguration in the Constitution, prior to the ratification of the 20th Amendment in 1933 that changed it to Jan. 20^th.   It is only too probable that they will take action to make that prophecy become reality and attempt a second besiegement.  National Guard troops will remain in DC through at least March 12^th because of fears of extremist activity.

Recently I went through an online course of Community Emergency Response Team (CERT) training.  I got involved in this training because I contacted the Fairfax City government some months earlier to see if there was any way in which I could provide services for medical care professionals during the pandemic.  There was nothing specifically for volunteers with no previous training, but eventually the CERT training was recommended to me.  Tonight I attended the first live training session.  Five of these in all are given, held at weekly intervals, after completion of the online course.  For a subject that involves a good deal of physical activity, live classroom sessions make a great difference.  The focus of tonight’s session, for example, was on the response to fires.  I saw and physically handled several different fire extinguishers and put out a simulated fire with one of them.  (Note:  CERT responders are not fire-fighters and are not supposed to handle large-scale fires, but they can handle small ones that can be extinguished in five seconds or thereabouts.)  I have not used a fire extinguisher for years until tonight; now that I’ve had some brief hands-on experience with one, I feel a good deal more confident about handling an extinguisher if a real emergency should materialize.  The experience brought home forcibly to me how difficult it has been for students this past year who must rely primarily on online instruction without any live interaction with teachers or other students.

Today’s statistics as of 11:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  115,765,405; # of deaths worldwide: 2,571,756; # of cases U.S.: 29,456,377; # of deaths; U.S.:  531,652. 

On the Tuscarora Trail – When to end the journal – Biden’s efforts to supply and distribute vaccines – Governor Abbott ends COVID-related restrictions in Texas – Evening statistics

After the wretched weather of the past two days, today was cloudless, with little wind.  Although the temperature never rose above 40 degrees where I was hiking, it felt much warmer on account of the sunlight.  I went with the Vigorous Hikers along the Tuscarora Trail to a fire road, down the fire road to Back Creek Road, up the Lucas Woods Trail to the Tuscarora, and along the ridge back to the parking area on Capon Springs Road:  about 17 miles and 2500 feet of elevation gain.  The paths were reasonably clear, but a few spots on the Tuscarora were still covered with a layer of snow and/or ice, and caution was needed while walking on them.  The roadwalk along Back Creek Road turned out to be more interesting than I would have expected; it is a quite country road that passed by several farms, with horses and cattle (some of them longhorns) grazing in the pastures.  The section of the Tuscarora that we traversed offered views to the west into the valley on the West Virginia side of the trail and, at Eagle Rock, views of the Shenandoah Valley and the ridgeline of the Blue Ridge Mountains to the east.  Even in the clear sunlight that tops of the mountain in the Blue Ridge range had a dark purplish-blue color, from which it was easy to see how they acquired their name.

When we were having lunch together on the ridge DG mentioned the journal to me and asked, with curiosity, “When do you plan to stop?”  It’s a fair question, and I wish I had a clear answer.  Towards the end of the original “Journal of the Plague Year” by Daniel Defoe, the termination of the epidemic was summed up as follows:

“However, it pleased God, by the continuing of the winter weather, so to restore the health of the city that by February following we reckoned the distemper quite ceased, and then we were not so easily frighted again.”

It is not at all certain that we shall ever reckon this particular distemper “quite ceased.”  The likelihood, according to the medical experts, is that the virus will indeed subside as a result of vaccination on a large scale and at one point will diminish to such an extent that it is no longer a pandemic, but that it will not disappear entirely.  It will be a disease lurking in the background against which the populace at large will be obliged to take preventative measures continually, as is the case with many other diseases.  In all probability people will be getting an annual vaccination against COVID, as they do now for influenza.  So in order to have a complete record of the phases of the pandemic, I shall probably have to continue the journal until the third quarter of this year – that, at a guess, will be the time to claim that the account of the pandemic and its effects is at an end; and even that is only a very rough approximation.   

President Biden has said that we will have a sufficient supply of vaccines by the end of May to inoculate the entire US adult population.  He stressed, however, that a supply in itself is only part of the solution:   there must be a sufficient number of people to administer the vaccinations and a system in place for tracking the portion of the population that still requires inoculation.  He has brokered a deal for Merck to produce Johnson & Johnson’s single-dose Covid-19 vaccine to boost supply nationwide, although the two firms are rivals:  the same sort of collaboration, as he noted, that commercial firms displayed during World War II.  It is not the first time, and it probably won’t be the last, for me to note how gratifying it is at last to have a president who is taking active steps to combat the virus.

Some people appear to believe that the pandemic is over already.  Today Governor Abbott of Texas ended the statewide mandate to wear masks in public places and has opened up the state 100%.  Judges will no longer be able to impose penalties upon anyone who does not wear a mask and businesses may operate to full capacity, unless the individual county in which the business office resides has imposed restrictions of its own.  Even in such cases, businesses must be allowed to operate on at least 50% capacity.  The rollout of vaccines has certainly been efficient in the state.  During the course of today alone over 216,000 people received their inoculations – well over 1 in 150 of the state’s entire population, an impressive result for a single day.  Coronavirus patients now account for less than 15% of the hospitalizations.  Nonetheless not all health authorities are in agreement about ending the restrictions.  Various health officials in Dallas are still using the same protocols as before in city hospitals.  Eric Johnson and Betsy Price, mayors of Dallas and Fort Worth respectively, while acknowledging that they no longer have the power to enforce a mask mandate, are still urging citizens to continue the practices of wearing masks and social distancing.  Texas has, as a state, ranked very solidly in the middle with regard to both incidence rate and mortality rate; so it cannot be said that Governor Abbott is being unduly reckless.  Nonetheless I hope that other states where vaccine rollout has been less efficient do not follow its example – certainly not Virginia, which still has over 95,000 people to vaccinate before it can complete Phase 1B. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  115,279,384; # of deaths worldwide: 2,559,175; # of cases U.S.: 29,370,202; # of deaths; U.S.:  529,192. 

Accelerated pace of vaccine distribution in Fairfax County – Signs of the pro-Trump faction beginning a retrospective justification of the COVID response – Evening statistics

At long last Fairfax County has moved on from those who registered on January 18^th.  The total number of people who registered during the period January 19-22 is just under 42,000.  The vaccine distribution must be moving at a faster rate than earlier, for it was not long ago that it was reported that 37% of those who registered on the 18^th still remained to be scheduled.  Perhaps getting a vaccine sometime in March may be possible; at all events getting it by the end of April seems quite probable.  The county will be receiving shipments of the new vaccine this week, which should facilitate matters to an even greater extent. 

“Of course the crisis was awful, but on balance, overall, the United States handled it as well or better than many of the world’s most advanced countries.” 

This statement comes from the Washington Examiner.  Its analysis concentrated primarily on the rollout of the vaccines.  In that respect our nation probably has done as well as, or even better than, many EU nations.  But a significant period elapsed between the onset of the virus and the development of the vaccines.  During that time Americans accounted for 25% of the world’s COVID cases and over 20% of the deaths – a fairly disproportionate amount for a country with 4% of the world’s population.  Only the Czech Republic and a handful of micro-states have a higher incidence of the disease than we do, and the U.S. is 10^th on the list of countries with the highest death rates (and three of the countries with higher death rates are micro-states).  So I do not see how Byron York, the analyst who wrote the article, was able to arrive at this conclusion.

The article adds, further, that the “vast majority of Americans of all ages have been wearing face coverings since April,” implying that Biden’s contribution in this respect to enforce the measure is negligible.  This statement, however, glosses over the extraordinary virulence on the part of those who, encouraged by our former president, resisted facemask-wearing in this country, staging violent protests in places such as Lansing.  I do not believe the violence of their opposition has been equaled in any other nation.  Just this past Friday one John Shallerhorn tried to attend a basketball game at George Washington Carver High School in New Orleans without a mask.  He got into an argument with a school staffer about this issue.  At that point Martinus Mitchum, a Tulane police officer, intervened, trying to de-escalate the situation.  Shallerhorn responded by pulling out a gun and shooting Mitchum in the chest, wounding him fatally.  In how many other countries would a police officer be likely to lose his life for trying to enforce the wearing of a facemask at a public event?

It may be wondered why I expend so much attention to a single article; and it is, of course, not important in itself.  I believe, however, that it represents the beginning of a trend that will increase over the next several months, in which defenders of the pro-Trump faction will attempt to cover up the past with a patina of foresight and responsibility on the part of the administration, and thereby pave the way, as they hope, in influencing the 2022 elections to recover the ground they have lost this previous November.  

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  114,982,194; # of deaths worldwide: 2,549,635; # of cases U.S.: 29,311,446; # of deaths; U.S.:  527,171. 

Fairfax County vaccine status – Violence in Myanmar – Trump idol worship – Division among Republicans – Evening statistics

There is more news about vaccine distribution in Fairfax County.  Even though the scheduling of persons who registered on January 18^th for vaccination has continued for three weeks, over a third of them remain to be scheduled.  When this amount is add to the numbers of people who signed up on the 19^th, 20^th, and 21^st, there are about 50,000 who are to be scheduled before those who signed up on the 22^nd, as I did, will be able to make appointments.  Shipments for the new vaccine will begin tomorrow, which may accelerate the rate at which vaccines are being administered.

The tension in Myanmar has escalated and the long-feared violent outbreak has begun.   At least 18 people were killed and 30 more injured by police of the militia firing at protesters against the coup.  It is difficult to obtain details.  There are reports of firing into crowds at Yangon, Dawei, Mandalay, Myeik, Bago and Pokokku, as well as the use of tear gas, flash-bang and stun grenades, but these claims, although they sound plausible, have not been independently verified.  Kyaw Moe Tun, Myanmar’s UN ambassador, made an impassioned plea at the UN General Assembly for international action that would overturn the coup; not surprisingly, he has since been removed from his position.   One of the victims was Nyi Nyi Aung Htet Naing, Internet network engineer.  Only one day earlier, he posted a question on Facebook:  “How many dead bodies before the United Nations takes action?” He was one of five people killed today in Yangon.

The Conservative Political Action Conference was held this week in Florida.  One of the attendees, incidentally, was Ted Cruz.  One wonders whether he found as many diversions in Orlando as he had hoped to obtain in Cancun.  Among highlights of the CPAC was a fiberglass statue of Donald Trump, over six feet tall, dressed in a suit jacket, white shirt, red tie, American-flag shorts, sandals, and a magic wand (a reference to Obama’s disdainful remark that Trump didn’t have a magic wand to bring back manufacturing jobs to the United States).  It is painted in a gleaming garish gold hue, and onlookers were not slow to make analogies to this ingenious machine – art it is not – and the Golden Calf.  There are photos of people bowing before it – presumably tongue-in-cheek, but it is difficult to be certain.

Biden thus is the beneficiary of a schism that few presidents have enjoyed:  the party in opposition to his own is so deeply divided that members of its splinters are too busy abusing each other to pay much attention to him.  Consequently he is having a somewhat easier time in getting his resolutions passed than most presidents in their first few months.  The CPAC demonstrates clearly that Trump has by no means exhausted his appeal among the Republican Party.  Trump himself made a speech at the closing of the event today, in a manner one might expect:  repeating the claim about the election being rigged, calling out for the elimination of those who voted against him during the impeachment, and launching into multiple tirades about mail-in voting, voter ID laws, and the Supreme Court ruling rejecting his election challenges.  Just before this speech began, he won CPAC’s presidential straw poll with the support of 55 percent of the more than 1,000 conference attendees asked about who they support for the GOP’s 2024 bid.  There is a contingent within the party that is strongly resistant to Trump and is attempting to combat his influence, but its members are clearly a minority. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  114,674,302; # of deaths worldwide: 2,542,556; # of cases U.S.: 29,255,344; # of deaths; U.S.:  525,776. 

Hiking on the Appalachian Trail in the snow – The vaccination situation in Virginia – The new Janssen vaccine – Vote against the relief package – Long-term strategy of the Republicans – Evening statistics

I believe that this season has seen more use of my micro-spikes than any previous one.  Today I met with ten other Wanderbirds members to hike along the Appalachian Trail from Rte. 55 to the junction with the Trico Tower Trail and take a mile-long loop along that trail and a fire road before returning back:  about 10 miles in all and 2000 feet of elevation gain.  The length of the distance, however, should be calculated in what one member called “dog miles”:  after I completed the route I felt as tired as if I had gone 15 miles instead of 10.  At the beginning of the hike the snow on the ground had melted entirely, but as one went further up the residual snow became deeper and deeper.  Even slight ascents became arduous under such conditions.  The weather turned out better than expected, raining very little (just drizzle, in fact) during the first hour and clearing throughout the day, with sunshine in the afternoon.

As always, we took the opportunity to keep one another up-to-date with our current status in various matters.  I had conversations with several about vaccines, an increasing source of interest for most of us.  One in particular stands out for me.  LH and I are supposed to be on a trip organized by LM in June to hike in King’s Canyon and Sequoia.   I told her about my current situation:  that I had registered to be vaccinated on January 22^nd and that Fairfax County is still vaccinating only up to those who have registered on January 18^th – a state of affairs that has lasted for three weeks.  It is true that fewer people registered on the intervening days; but even if everyone who registered on January 18^th were vaccinated tomorrow, there would be at least 35,000 people who registered before I did.  I cannot see getting vaccinated any time before April.  LH, who is not in either the 1A or 1B category, is worried whether she can get vaccinated by the time of the trip.  It is a legitimate concern:  Virginia remains one of the least effective states in distributing the vaccine to its residents. 

There is, possibly, a mitigating factor.  A new COVID vaccine has been approved by the FDA.  The Janssen vaccine (manufactured by Jouhnson and Johnson) requires only a single dose and is easier to store than either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines.  It is rated as 85% effective at preventing severe illness and 100% effective at preventing hospitalizations and deaths 28 days after individuals are vaccinated.  The new vaccine was tested in countries known to have potentially more dangerous variants, including Brazil and South Africa. The data found the vaccine worked against all variants at preventing severe disease.  Not all of the findings are rosy:  there is not sufficient data to determine frequency of allergic reactions and it is not clear how long that the immunization it confers will last (this last caveat applies to the other vaccines as well).  But at any rate it should aid in the distribution of vaccinations.  Shipment of 3.9 million doses could begin as early as Monday, with about 800,000 of that expected to go directly to pharmacies.

The Republicans in the House have voted against the pandemic relief package that would send $1,400 checks to most Americans and hundreds of billions more to help open schools, revive struggling businesses, and provide financial support to state and local governments.  It is difficult to understand what they expect to gain by this maneuver.  They no longer hold a majority in either chamber and they must be aware that they cannot hope to pass or defeat any bill unaided by at least a handful of Democrats rallying to their side.  They must know, also, that such a vote will make them extremely unpopular.  There are even a significant number of prominent Republicans outside of the legislative branch who favor the bill:  for example, Oklahoma City Mayor David Holt, who along with 31 other Republican mayors wrote a letter urging leaders in both parties to approve the package. The pandemic has necessitated cuts to the city’s fire and police departments, which is crippling civic services.  And of course the average worker, whether Republican or Democrat, is likely to resent any factor that stands in the way of some much-needed relief from the tolls that the pandemic and its attendant restrictions have taken from him.  It is somewhat curious watching a political party commit suicide. 

The explanation given is that an analogous situation occurred in 2009, when Republicans voted against the massive stimulus package designed to protect millions of Americans from financial ruin.  After (from the Republican point of view) a disastrous election in 2008, this step actually marked the beginning of their return to power.  Their arguments that the stimulus package cost too much and accomplished too little fueled a significant part of their success in the 2010 elections.  Evidently they are hoping for history to repeat itself, especially as Biden (who was Vice President at the time) played a major role in the 2009 stimulus package.  But the analogy is a dubious one.  The principal causes of the 2008 economic crisis, which the 2009 stimulus package was designed to correct, were risk-taking by banks and the bursting of the national housing bubble: factors that were easy to identify and that could be addressed in a relatively short time.  The cause of our current economic troubles is the cumulative restrictions imposed by the virus, making it impossible for businesses that depend on physical contact between providers and customers – food stores, restaurants, bars, private schools, gyms, spas, transportation, travel services, etc. – to operate in the same manner that they used before the pandemic began.  In all probability some of the modifications imposed by the virus will be long-lasting and several businesses will fall by the wayside as a result.  The adjustment period to these new conditions may last for several months, possibly well beyond the period of campaigning for the 2022 elections.  If that is the case, this vote cast by the Republican Representatives (and by the Republican Senators, who are expected to follow suit) will be held against them.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  114,365,469; # of deaths worldwide: 2,536,697; # of cases U.S.: 29,202,824; # of deaths; U.S.:  524,669. 

Early crocus blooms – Historic Blenheim – The terror of Jersey Island – Progress in restraining malaria – Biden’s first airstrike – Evening statistics

Little purple crocuses with yellow stamens appeared on my lawn yesterday.  These are wild, not planted from store-bought bulbs, clustering within the roots of an oak tree that project above the ground.  The flowers are of the crocus tommasinianus species, sometimes known as the woodland crocus:  one of the earliest to bloom during the late winter/early spring season.  The plant originated in the Balkan area of Europe and I suppose it is technically an invasive species, but I am always glad to see this harbinger of spring.   After the series of snowfalls we have had a period of mild spring-like days; the moderation in temperatures in combination with the lengthening of the days triggers their emergence. 

A historic home in Fairfax has actually been in the headlines today – the headlines for the local area, at any rate.  Blenheim (pronounced BLEE-num, unlike its namesake in Oxfordshire), a 19^th-century brick farmhouse in the so-called Greek Revival style, was used during the Civil War as part of a hospital reserve system.  Many Union soldiers convalesced from wounds or diseases there, and over 100 of them wrote inscriptions on the walls during their stay, sometimes quite extensive ones.  I visited the house some years ago, at which time the curators were in the process of removing the paint and wallpaper that subsequent owners had used to cover up the graffiti.  At this point the graffiti are being revealed by use of special lighting techniques that can read them while still covered by paint or paper, without having to expose them to chemicals that might injure them and render them indecipherable.  Historians are using them to see what they might reveal about living conditions during the Civil War – treating them as a diary of the period, in fact.  So perhaps the idea that records such as this one during the COVID epidemic attracting the attention of future historians may not be so far-fetched after all.

A certain animal that has gone feral is terrorizing Jersey, of the Channel Islands:  not, as one might expect, pigs, or dogs, or goats, but . . . chickens. 

The chickens that have gone wild are, contrary to the usual stereotype, anything but cowardly.  Congregating in flocks of 100 or more does appear to given them a boost in self-confidence.  They crow lustily at 4:00 AM; they sally forth into gardens and gleefully trash them in their relentless quest for food; they march down the roads, serenely ignoring the automobiles on them, seemingly for the purpose of tying up traffic, they chase after joggers, giving the latter an impetus to increase their speed.  It seems probable that initially a few chickens were kept as pets and then abandoned, after which (since Jersey has no foxes or other natural predators) their population increased geometrically and they now number in the thousands.  Whoever came up with the concept of “free-range chicken” could not possibly have anticipated a situation like this one.

Not all of the news from the WHO is gloomy, even in the midst of a pandemic.  Today it announced that El Salvador has eliminated malaria, the 38^th country to do so and the first one in Central America.  Malaria has been eliminated in much of North America (including the Caribbean nations) outside of the Central American nations, most of Europe, a good number of the island nations in the Pacific, and a few South American, African, and Asian nations.  It is still a far-ranging and relentless disease; in 2018 it infected 228 million people and killed an estimated 405,000.  But if it can be eliminated in a country with a climate such as El Salvador’s (i.e., one that is hospitable to mosquitos that carry the disease) then there is hope that the world at large can become malaria-free eventually.  Similar developments have occurred in the past.  Just a couple of generations ago polio was a deadly scourge, and now it has been eliminated from all except a handful of small isolated areas. 

Biden has ordered airstrikes against multiple facilities at a Syrian-Iraqi border control point in southeastern Syria in retaliation for rocket attacks on U.S. targets in neighboring Iraq. The Pentagon identified the targets as a several Iranian-backed militant groups including Kataib Hezbollah and Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada.  Again, this policy runs contrary to what his opponents were predicting during the election:  he is not being unresponsive to provocations from Iran.  It will be perceived that these notes, in common with those from many observers, discuss Biden’s activities much more dispassionately than those of his predecessor.  Some of Biden’s actions I support; others I question; but in all cases I can understand the policy that drives them and I can believe that he is motivated by what he thinks to be best for the nation, as opposed to motives of sheer self-aggrandizement. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  113,962,373; # of deaths worldwide: 2,528,115; # of cases U.S.: 29,130,841; # of deaths; U.S.:  522,875. 

Delays in receiving the vaccine in Fairfax County – Mercia Bowser – Decline in COVID hospitalizations and deaths – The virus as a factor in the recent election – Counties begin to sue on account of lawsuits falsely claiming voter fraud – Evening statistics

Biden has said that the rollout of the vaccination is “weeks ahead of schedule.”  Perhaps that is true generally, but it is certainly not the case here.  The webpage that provides the status for Fairfax County says that they are making appointments for those who registered for the vaccine on January 18^th.  It has been in this status for more than two weeks.  I myself registered on January 22^nd.  At this rate I will not receive the vaccine until the end of April at the earliest. 

The virus appears to be on the decline but it is not to be underestimated.  Yesterday Mercia Bowser, sister of DC’s mayor, died from COVID-related complications at the age of 64.  She is one of many; over 1,000 people in DC have died from the disease, and national daily death tolls have been ranging between 1,500 and 3,000 for the past few weeks –less than they were in December and early January, but considerably greater than the daily death tolls of the previous summer months.  In the words of Dr. Rochelle Walensky, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: “It’s encouraging to see these trends coming down, but they’re coming down from an extraordinarily high place.”

Anita Dunn, a prominent Biden adviser, said that the coronavirus is the “best thing that could have happened” for Biden.  There is naturally some backlash after this incautious remark was disclosed, but it is the simple truth.  The statement is as much a reflection on Trump as on Biden.  If Trump had displayed even the smallest amount of responsibility when the pandemic started, Biden’s task of defeating Trump in the recent election would have been much more difficult.  If Trump had cooperated to some small degree with Fauci’s efforts to contain the virus, if he had not made outlandish claims endorsing quack medicines, if he had not attempted to portray the hospitalizations and deaths caused by COVID as part of a conspiracy to discredit him – if he had done any of these things, he not only would have spared the nation many casualties and much unnecessary suffering, but he would have made his own re-election much more likely. 

Dekalb County and Cobb County, both of Georgia, have filed suits to recoup legal fees from the lawsuit that made claims of voter fraud, on the grounds that the claims were unsubstantiated and that lawsuit was therefore frivolous.  The amounts that they are asking for are not enormous — $6,105 for Dekalb and $10,875 for Cobb – but it is yet another suit to add to the growing list of lawsuits that are besetting Trump since his presidency ended.  Other counties in Georgia are considering similar motions. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  113,530,027; # of deaths worldwide: 2,518,255; # of cases U.S.: 29,050,435; # of deaths; U.S.:  520,708. 

Sugarloaf Mountain in the snow – Indonesia mediates for Myanmar – A focused resolution – Evening statistics

A local author is writing, or I should rather say updating, a book on hikes in Western Maryland.  At her behest, several hikers in the region are scouting the hikes described in the book and suggesting revisions as needed.  It is a necessary task for any revision of a book describing regional hikes.  Trails get rerouted, as do the roads that are mentioned in the driving directions to the trailheads.  As part of this effort I went to Sugarloaf Mountain today to go over a circuit hike described in the book.  I honestly did not expect any surprises, since I had been there as recently as November; but I received one nonetheless.  The trail routes themselves have not changed, but on this occasion the residual snow and ice transformed what ordinarily would be a rather easy hike into quite a challenging one.  I was very tired by the time I had completed it, and it was only about 9 miles long.  On the other hand, the views from the summit and from White Rocks were splendid.  The view from the summit overlooks the unincorporated community of Dickerson and its power plant.  That, in itself, doesn’t sound very attractive, but in fact the community and the plant are on such a small scale that they actually emphasize the expansiveness of the view.  From White Rocks one looks westward over the Frederick Valley, the floodplain of the Monocacy River.   The road to the East View and West View parking lots was closed, and only a few cars were parked at the small parking area at the base when I arrived at 9:00 AM, so I had these views to myself when I arrived at the overlooks – the first time I have ever done so, for Sugarloaf is a popular local excursion and generally is rather crowded.  It was a beautiful day, close to 60 degrees on the mountain (and well over 60 when I came back to lower elevations), a welcome change after the wet weather and gray skies of the majority of the days these past three weeks.

Indonesia has taken the lead within the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) in efforts to resolve the crisis in Myanmar caused by the coup on February 1^st.  Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi met Myanmar’s military-appointed foreign minister, Wunna Maung Lwin, for talks in Bangkok yesterday.  The Myanmar democracy activists are suspicious of this intervention, not entirely without justification.  They fear that such efforts might confer legitimacy on the junta now in control.  Retno insists that she will hold communications with both sides and that the wellbeing of the people of Myanmar is the number one priority.  This last statement is of course rather vague, but Indonesian authorities are indicating that they will induce ASEAN to send monitors to ensure that the military government will adhere to its promise of holding free elections within a year.  It clearly is in the best interests of the current government in Myanmar to be in good standing with their neighbors and economic allies, which makes a peaceful outcome at any rate a possibility.  Still, people – and politicians in particular – do not always act in accordance with their best interests.  Sometimes love of power overrides every other consideration.  We have recently seen an example of that somewhat closer to home.

Speaking of which . . .

House Democrats have introduced a bill that bans former U.S. presidents who have been “twice impeached” from burial in Arlington National Cemetery.  I’m little surprised that they did not include a proviso that rules out “orange-haired former U.S. presidents who wear hideous neckties” from the privilege, just in case the proposed motion as it stands is not specific enough.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  113,081,640; # of deaths worldwide: 2,506,752; # of cases U.S.: 28,974,124; # of deaths; U.S.:  517,408.