Category: Journal Entry

Hiking in the ACLT – A relieved EPA employee – Biden’s acceptance speech – Trump’s lawsuits – Evening statistics

Another lovely day, which I spent hiking with AD and others in the American Chestnut Land Trust.  The sky was sapphirine blue, cloudless, with air like crystal; although much of the foliage has fallen, the trees still had remnants of leaves; the temperature was perfect, just below 70 degrees (it was somewhat cooler in the vicinity of the Chesapeake Bay than further inland closer to Washington), and with very low humidity.  The trails have been restored to an astonishing degree, considering that the Isaias storm deposited more than eight inches of rain in the area within a single day several weeks ago.  The raft has been recovered, has been cleaned, and has been fitted with new cables, so that it is in perfect working order. 

There were eight of us in all.  Among the hikers was GW, who works in the Environmental Protection Agency, and he was looking more cheerful and at ease than I have seen him for many a long day.  Donald Trump has been waging a steady internecine war with the EPA (as well as with many other Government agencies) ever since he assumed office, and it is a great relief to its workers that he will not be able to harass them any longer after January 20^th. 

Biden is not waiting to start reversing Trump’s policies.  He has already met with medical advisers to consult about the best methods of handling the virus.  They, as may be imagined, are only too delighted to work alongside a President who takes the coronavirus seriously.  He has also made an excellent acceptance speech, calm, rational, and conciliatory.  Instead of excoriating those who voted for Trump, he told them that he understands their disappointment but expressed hopes that they would work with him all the same, and this plea may actually have some effect.  In a bare two days he has managed to make a complete departure from the siege mentality that has been the predominate theme of our incumbent’s presidency since the beginning of his term. 

Trump has been mercifully silent during these two days, which must be a record for him. He continues to issue lawsuits, the majority of which have already been thrown out of court.  He doesn’t seem to realize that it is not sufficient merely to assert that the polls have been tampered with but has to produce evidence as well before any lawsuit has a chance of succeeding.  So far none has turned up, and it is unlikely that any will.  Even several of Trump’s followers are beginning to question the advisability of this proceeding.  Both Melania Trump and Jared Kushner have urged him to concede.  So in this matter he does not even have the whole-hearted support of his own family.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide 50,719,756; # of deaths worldwide: 1,261,676; # of cases U.S.: 10,287,328; # of deaths; U.S.: 243,756.  Today the death toll was a bare 500, so I suppose that’s an improvement.

The election results – Reaction in Washington – The President-Elect – The unreliable polls – Futility of Trump’s refusal to concede – The virus among the presidential staff – Hiking on the Potomac Heritage Trail and others – Evening statistics

So it is all over except the shouting, and we can expect plenty of that to come.  Joseph Biden has officially won the election.  Despite the disquieting signs of support for Trump that I discerned in the Allentown/Bethlehem area during my recent visit, Pennsylvania in the end provided a sufficient number of ballots to grant the state’s electoral college votes to Biden.  Donald Trump continues to protest the results and refuses to concede, which should come as a surprise to no one.  What is going on in the White House at the moment, I can only imagine.  His shrieks of outrage, his impassioned jeremiads, his bitter allotments of blame upon everyone except himself, the number of denunciations heaped upon his hapless staff, who shall describe or calculate?  I doubt whether even Shakespeare could do justice to such a scene.  If this episode is ever represented upon the stage, opera rather than drama seems the preferable medium.  One or two of the more tempestuous leitmotifs along the lines of Wagner or Richard Strauss might perhaps be sufficiently representative of our temperamental Commander-in-Chief.

In the meantime the entire city of Washington DC has been rejoicing at his fall all day long.  The mood of the capital is somewhat like that of Paris in 1794 after the execution of Robespierre.  People jumped up and down with excitement for hours on end on the plaza just north of the White House, waving flags and ringing bells, an outpouring of music issued from windows and balconies in Tenleytown and Shaw, drivers honked their horns all over the streets, while people in various neighborhoods such as Cleveland Park cheered them on.  In Bethesda people shouted with glee, banging on pots and pans, and in Alexandria whoops and shouts were heard all over the city.  Muriel Bowser (the DC mayor), and Governors Hogan and Northam have hastened to send in their congratulations to our President-Elect, and there is every reason to believe that they are sincere, so grateful as they must be to be rid of that incubus currently garrisoned in the White House.

It is indeed a startling change.  In place of a modern-day robber baron with the morals of a Caribbean buccaneer and the manners of a Mafioso boss, we can look forward to our national government passing into the hands to a man with agreeable mien, equitable temperament, and comparatively dignified presence.  Biden is not without intelligence as well; and although his intelligence resembles the sunrays of a cloudy winter day, which provide a muted light and little heat, it is infinitely preferable to the much stormier and more violent weather we have been enduring for the past four years. 

One side effect that has been produced by this election is the demonstration of the unreliability of our polls.  It is a matter that has to be faced:  their predictions have been mistaken to an uncommonly large degree.  It was just a few weeks ago that several were projecting a Biden win by a landslide.  While I was not quite so optimistic, I did expect the election to be less narrowly contested than it actually was, based on many of the polls I sampled on the Internet.  Nor has Trump’s effect been the disaster for Republicans that several predicted it would be.  The Republicans actually gained a few seats in the House and it seems probable that they will retain control of the Senate.  Undoubtedly the Democrats injured themselves by expressing support of the protesters in numerous cities earlier this year, and by their extremely lukewarm condemnation of the looting and rapine of the more violent factions – in some cases, such as that of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, expressing a heartless disregard for the victims of these acts of robbery and assault.  The Trump campaign actually made inroads in demographic groups that traditionally have been Democratic strongholds:  Latinos, African-Americans, and members of the LGBTQ community all voted Republican in greater numbers, proportionately, than in any previous election.  The Democratic party has been shifting to the extreme Left over the years, alienating many voters in the process, and Biden will have quite a challenge steering it to a more moderate course. 

But it is over, happily over; and even if Trump does not concede, he cannot forestall the inauguration by his refusal alone.  He has indeed initiated various lawsuits to challenge the results of several states, but if these are not successful (and the probabilities are that they will be resolved in Biden’s favor), he has no choice but to leave, whether he formally concedes or not.  The Secret Service personnel have already begun transferring their attention to Biden, sending agents in his vicinity for his protection and clearing airspace over Wilmington, where Biden currently resides.  Trump will have the option of departing of his own accord on January 20^th or being forcibly escorted out by the Secret Service. 

In other developments, Mark Meadows – he who said that the coronavirus could not possibly be contained – has, like the best philosophers, reinforced precept with example by testing positive for the virus himself yesterday.  He is one of over 120,000 new infections for the day, the record number to date.  Numerous others on Trump’s staff to have recently contracted the virus as a result of attending various White House events without a mask or any attempt made at social distancing:  White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany, senior adviser Hope Hicks, director of Oval Office operations Nick Luna, former counselor to the president Kellyanne Conway, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, and Trump campaign manager Bill Stepien.  The wages of sin may or may not be death; but there is no question that the wages of service under Donald Trump are infection and disease.

I was out yesterday hiking with RS.  We covered about 27 miles.  There was some bushwhacking at the beginning, where Broad Run passes under Rte. 7, but after that it was fairly straightforward going on the Potomac Heritage Trail through Bles Park and Edward’s Ferry.  The last part consisted of walking on various country roads towards the Freedom Center outside of Leesburg.  The Freedom Center deserves to be better known.  It is primarily designed to provide a recreational resource for religious Christian families, but its trails are open for everyone to explore.  They occupy a network among the 100 wooded acres of the property and are very well-maintained.  I returned so late that I was too tired to enter anything in the journal for the day; and unmotivated as well, since the election was still unresolved during the previous night.  I was supposed to hike again with RS today, but I felt slightly unwell in the morning and had to call it off.  Strangely enough, I began to feel better about the same time that the election was officially decided in Biden’s favor, although I actually did not learn about it until a couple of hours afterward.  One is tempted to see a bit of symbolism in such an event, but then again perhaps I’m being overly influenced by my former days as a literature major.

Yesterday’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide 49,665,365; # of deaths worldwide: 1,248,565; # of cases U.S.: 10,058,586; # of deaths; U.S.: 242,230.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide 50,242,017; # of deaths worldwide: 1,255,616; # of cases U.S.: 10,178,072; # of deaths; U.S.: 243,248.  Two gloomy milestones have been reached in the past two days:  our case count surpassed 10 million yesterday and the global case count surpassed 50 million today.  That is still well under 1% of the world’s total population, but it is a large number all the same and it is galling to reflect that such a great amount of it could have been averted by countries (including our own) that failed to take appropriate precautions until it was too late.  Our own incidence rate is much higher than the global average, at this point surpassing 3% of the national population. 

The election blues – Richard Nixon and Al Gore – Trump’s claim to fame – Evening statistics

“I’m very depressed about the election” – such is the gist of the remarks I’ve been hearing from several friends today, and it must be confessed that they are not without cause.  The current situation is certainly unpleasant.  There have been a couple of articles coming out that compare President Trump to Benedict Arnold, a comparison which I think is rather unfair – to Benedict Arnold, who actually accomplished some genuine military achievements before he made the decision to turn traitor.  President Trump is making no secret of his determination to subvert the democratic process, repeatedly seeking to halt the tallying of mail-in ballots in several states.  As one who has himself cast a mail-in ballot, I look upon such efforts with extreme disfavor, although, considering the man’s character (or lack thereof) without any surprise. 

There are two men of greatly different characters and political positions who made a conscious decision to avert scandal from the election process, not hesitating to place their country’s welfare over their own personal ambitions.  In 1960, many legislators and journalists maintained that John Kennedy benefitted from vote fraud, and Richard Nixon’s campaign staff urged him to challenge the validity of Kennedy’s victory in several states, Illinois, Texas, Missouri, and New Jersey in particular.  Nixon, however, refused to make such a challenge, conceding three days after the election, and he actively discouraged the journalist Earl Mazo from publishing a series of articles on vote fraud on the grounds that these would fuel a constitutional crisis.  In the 2000 election, similarly, the tally of the vote count in Florida fell into dispute and an attempt at a recount was foiled by a suit from George Bush that was upheld by the Supreme Court.  Al Gore disagreed with the Court’s decision, for obvious reasons, but once the decision was handed down he acquiesced rather than subject the nation to a long, painful legal debate that would have cast aspersions on the Presidential office:  “for the sake of our unity as a people and the strength of our democracy, I offer my concession.” 

By way of contrast, Trump makes no secret of his ambitions to foment a constitutional crisis and to undermine the strength of our democracy.  He has desired to make his mark in history, and so indeed he shall, being ranged with worthies such as Arnold, Aaron Burr, Jefferson Davis, Robert Hanssen, and Aldrich Ames. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide 49,008,293; # of deaths worldwide: 1,238,812; # of cases U.S.: 9,917,232; # of deaths; U.S.: 240,946. 

Trump squabbles about the election – Biden’s restraint – Hiking along the Potomac and through Loudoun County – Evening statistics

This election promised to be one of the most tumultuous our nation has ever seen, and it is living up to its promise.  At this point Biden has 264 electoral votes and Trump has 214.  A few states have not yet finalized their voting tallies; any one of these, if its voters decide in favor of Biden, could increase his total of electoral votes to 270 at a minimum, just the amount needed for him to declare victory.  As a matter of course, Trump declared victory for himself last night, with barely half of the confirmed electoral votes he needs to win, and has already initiated several lawsuits to inhibit tallying of the mail-in ballots.  The states, happily, are energetically resisting all attempts at intimidation.  The situation is complicated by the fact that, as a result of the precautions many have taken against the COVID tests, the number of mail-in ballots for this election is the largest by far in the nation’s history.  A veritable army of lawyers on both sides have been marshalled in readiness to litigate about the election’s results, and the outcome may not be resolved for weeks.  It is even possible that the election results will have to be referred to the Supreme Court.  Our system must repose some reliance on this judicial authority, and yet the trust in such a matter is so woefully misplaced.  A court containing three judges who are Trump nominees can hardly be impartial.

Biden has been temperate and sensible, refusing to be goaded by Trump’s provocations.  He has refrained from declaring victory until he obtains a confirmed majority of electoral college votes, has reiterated the right of voters who used the mail-in option to have their votes counted, and has expressed quiet confidence that he will eventually prevail.  Already, a bare 24 hours since the closing of the polls, he has demonstrated that he greatly excels his competitor in leadership abilities.

 In the meantime I fled yet again from the turmoil of the election and spent the day hiking with RS to explore how to set up a route from the Potomac to the Occoquan.  We started from Harper’s Ferry at 7:00 AM, taking the Appalachian Trail to the Loudoun Height Trail, bushwhacked a bit to Rte. 340, and then went along the Virginia bank of the Potomac for several miles.  There is a rudimentary trail along the river, although it needs to be cleared of debris and overgrowth.  We then went south and west towards Lovettsville, using a combination of obscure woodland routes and country roads, and from there winding our way in the vicinity of Lucketts.  We finished at about 5:30, so we hiked 10 hours in all (with a half-hour lunch).  It’s difficult to say how much mileage we covered, but it was well over 30.  The climb to Loudoun Heights is about 500 feet, but there were many other ups and downs, probably between 2000 and 2500 feet total.  The views of the Potomac from the Virginia bank are panoramic in scope, and it is surprising that the trail along the bank is not better developed. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide 48,419,721; # of deaths worldwide: 1,230,753; # of cases U.S.: 9,801,355; # of deaths; U.S.: 239,829. 

Hiking in Shenandoah National Park – The mandarins of Imperial China – Their contempt for commerce – Their counterparts in modern U. S. – Trump’s appeal in the role of outsider – The claims of Trump vs. the sad reality – Evening statistics

The flight from election matters continued by my hiking with the Vigorous Hiking group in Shenandoah, up the Buck Ridge Trail, taking Hazel Mountain and White Rocks Trails to Sam’s Ridge, up Sam’s Ridge, and back via Hazel Mountain and Buck Hollow Trails, about 16.5 miles and an elevation gain of close to 4000 feet.  Both Buck Hollow and Sam’s Ridge are among the steepest climbs in Shenandoah, although each of them is less steep than Leading Ridge.  It was a beautiful autumn day, cool enough to make the long ascents pleasant, sunny and clear.  There were numerous stream crossings but only one required my using water shoes.  The others had several rocks that enabled us to cross the stream dry-shod.  The leaves are past their peak now and many trees are denuded altogether, but there were still many areas of colorful display.  Politics certainly obtruded as we chatted among ourselves, but even though our group contained persons with a varying assortment of viewpoints we could converse with civility and without animosity.

All in all the day was delightful; now I return back to sober reality.  The ballots are coming in and being tallied, and as that is happening I ponder on my conversation with JN, my Democratic friend who has a shame-faced semi-admiration for Donald Trump.  

Over the years we have been developing a professional class whom I privately term as “mandarins.”  The label is derived from the government of Imperial China, which was run by scholars who were trained in administration as students and chosen by competitive examination.  It sounds like an ideal system, in theory at any rate:  no noisy, messy, costly elections, for instance.  What the Chinese actually got in the way of government was far from ideal.  Setting aside the corruption inherent in such a system, the officials produced in this way may have excelled at taking examinations but were ignorant of many of the concerns of the countrymen they were supposed to govern, especially the commercial ones.  Indeed, the merchants occupied the lowest class in China, subservient to scholars, farmers, and artisans, in that order.  The scholars were positively encouraged to look down upon them.  Contact with nations whose merchants had greater latitude did not alter their views.  A fragment of a conversation between the Emperor and one of his advisers concerning the Western nations with whom they traded has survived:

EMPEROR – It is plain that these barbarians always look on trade as their chief occupation and are wanting in any high purpose or striving for territorial acquisition.

ADVISER:  At bottom they belong to the class of brutes.  It is impossible that they should have any high purpose.

Modernize the style of this exchange, and it could be duplicated on any American campus. 

This characteristic disdain for mercantile activity, incidentally, was to have dire consequences in the early 19^th century.  Unable to produce a reliable coinage – there was no standard in quality, the value fluctuated wildly, and the coins or bullion were heavy to carry around – the government left their merchants to devise a more effective substitute currency, and eventually one was found:  opium.  It became the only commodity for which merchants or indeed the general public were ready to offer cash or barter in steady rates.  It was also safer; the coinage betrayed itself by its weight, and the owner ran a risk of being robbed or murdered by boatmen whenever he carried any.  The result was that opium made the rounds throughout the entire country and gave rise to the drug addiction that decimated the Chinese populace and made the nation vulnerable to foreign invasion, which was not slow in coming.  And it may well be that our own current opioid crisis is, similarly, a symptom of deep-rooted weaknesses in our system, which contact with the pandemic is beginning to expose.

In recent years our politicians have been largely recruited from a similar system:  a production of men and women who are literate, without being competent technocrats or scientists or businessmen, greatly out of proportion to the abilities of the national economic system to employ them.  These academics are widely regarded by many of their countrymen as being out of touch with their basic concerns and ignorant of the economic factors that shape most of their lives.  Biden himself serves as an example.  His experience of life outside politics is minimal.  He served as a city councilman at the age of 27, became Delaware’s junior senator at the age of 30, and his entire career (outside of a few years after college when he was a lawyer) has been occupied by political office.  One of the reasons that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez enjoys so much popularity among her adherents is that she has undertaken working-class occupations in her early years, including those of bartender, waitress, house cleaner, and bus driver.  The overwhelming majority of her colleagues on either party would be hopelessly at a loss if directed to perform any of these.

Into this state of affairs comes Donald Trump, proudly boasting of himself as an outsider to such a system, a man who had devoted most of his life not to politics to business matters, such as running a company and erecting numerous businesses as a source of employment.  That is the main source of his appeal to many voters, particularly those in the working-class.  He is not a lawyer or a social worker or a professor or a member of a profession that is funded solely through taxation; he is “one of us.”

The problem, of course, is that Trump is quite a poor representative of the class of man he claims to embody – a corporate president, to be sure, but one who has declared bankruptcy on no less than six separate occasions; a man who has created businesses to employ people, but businesses that fail to provide anything useful and which eventually fall into desuetude.  In Atlantic City alone, he is responsible for:  1)  the Trump Taj Mahal, which shut down after a bare 26 years of operation upon its failure to reach a deal with its union workers, causing 3,000 people to lose their jobs; 2) the Trump Plaza Hotel and Casino, which closed permanently in 2014, putting 1,300 people out of work, and now slated for demolition; 3) the Trump Marina, which languished under his administration until it was bought by Landry’s in 2011 at about one-tenth of Trump’s initial asking price; 4) Trump’s World Fair, which Trump purchased in 1989, saw it transferred back to the mortgage owner in 1992, re-purchased in 1995, and had it permanently closed in 1999, after which it was torn down for demolition a year later.   

But whatever else may be said of Trump, he is artful in concealing his numerous failures.  His extravagantly gilded lifestyle may indeed be motivated, at least in part, by such a concern.  At any rate, he has managed to persuade untold numbers of men and women to be dependent on him to an extent – quite an astonishing one, considering his proven record of failure as a husband, a business associate, an employer, a creditor, or a friend. 

So there we stand at the crossroads.  Who shall prevail, the mandarin or the charlatan?  In a few hours the fate of the nation for the next four years will be decided. 

The COVID virus, of course, functions quite independently of any election. Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide 47,837,477; # of deaths worldwide: 1,219,704; # of cases U.S.: 9,691,088; # of deaths; U.S.: 238,637.  Of today’s increases, we account for 19.4% of the new cases globally and 14.6% of the new deaths.  Our rate of infection is now approaching 3% of the population.  Of the nations with a population of over 10,000,000, only Belgium and Czechia exceed us in case incidence rate.  We are ninth on the list of nations with the highest mortality rates, but two of the nations that exceed ours (San Marino and Andorra) are micro-states. 

More hiking in Pennsylvania – Support for Trump in Pennsylvania – Evening statistics

I did not quite complete my project of traversing all of the Appalachian Trail that goes through Pennsylvania, for reasons that will become apparent, but I am close to realizing it now.  Currently I have 5.5 miles left to cover, or an 11-mile there-and-back hike.  So it appears that my goal of completing this section of the AT by the end of the year is feasible. 

The hikes were as follows:

10/31, Rte. 309 to Dan’s Spring and back, 15 miles, 1600 feet.  There were not many views along this hike.  The best one was at Balanced Rock, but it was limited in comparison with the Pulpit and the Pinnacle.  Most of the trail was straightforward enough, but it had two long sections consisting of boulder fields.  The sky was overcast, although there were occasional glimmers of sunshine.  Although the peak foliage is gone now, the trees still have many colored leaves, mainly yellows from beech and hickory.  The skies cleared later on at night, when I was able to view the so-called “blue moon,” which indeed was unusually bright but did not have any bluish tints that I could discern. 

11/1, Rte. 309 to Ashfield Rd. and back, 16.5 miles 1000 feet.  The section between Rte. 309 and Lehigh Gap is considered the most scenic part of the AT in Pennsylvania, and I could readily understand why.  There seemed to be photo opportunities every mile or so.  None of the views were as extensive as the one at the Pinnacle, but the cumulative effect is impressive.  Nonetheless, this hike was an exasperating one in many ways.  To begin with, it contained no fewer than five groups of boulder fields, all of them extensive and two of them (at Bake Oven Knob and Knife Edge) potentially hazardous.  Then, too, I was unlucky in my weather.  Originally I had contemplated going all the way to Lehigh Gap, which would have added 11 miles to the total, but by the time I was approaching Ashfield it was obvious that such a plan was not feasible; the boulder fields delayed me so much that I would not have reached the car until well after nightfall.  As I turned back from Ashfield Rd., another argument for shortening the hike became apparent:  it began to rain.  It had been overcast all day, but rain had not been in the forecast when I last checked it.  Nonetheless, predicted or not, it was falling and I had to take care in backtracking, especially over the boulder fields in particular and Oven Knob and Knife Edge in particular.  Knife Edge must be admitted to possess an extremely appropriate name:  it is a rocky ledge that at one point has abrupt drop-offs on either end, so that anyone going over it must adhere to a route that is only a few feet in breadth.  I probably would have enjoyed the hike more if the weather had been a bit more favorable.  As it was, the rain came down steadily during nearly the entirety of my return, although it tapered off by the time I reached the last mile.  When I drove back to the hotel, I immediately took a long, hot bath, and afterwards reveled in the satisfaction of wearing clean, dry clothes.

On this hike my cell phone was particularly troublesome.  Apps kept turning on of their own accord with annoying frequency, including my camera app.  I had to delete 17 photos of the interior of my pocket.  I do not know why it is so difficult for cell phone manufacturers to realize that many people carry cell phones in their pockets and that it is desirable to make cell phone apps less responsive to the friction that occurs when its owner is walking.

11/2, Hawk Mountain Rd., there-and-backs to Balanced Rock and to the Furnace Creek trailhead, 16 miles, 2000 feet.  Even though it had only one view to speak of (at Dan’s Pulpit), this was the most enjoyable of the three hikes. I had intended to go from Hawk Mountain Rd. only as far as Dan’s Spring, but I overshot it:  the sign for the spring is placed on a tree at a 90-angle with anyone who passes by and it is so high up that it is easy to overlook.  I probably added a mile in each direction on that account.  It was a true autumnal day, sunny but brisk, somewhat breezy but not so as to become uncomfortable.  I started early and for the first half-hour I walked through a light snow shower, which was delightful.  The temperature was well above freezing, so that the snowflakes melted directly upon touching the ground, but they were beautiful as the alighted from the skies.  Also, the hike began with a straightforward climb to the top of Hawk Mountain, a welcome contrast to all of those boulder fields I had been enduring over the past two days.  The second part of the hike also involved a long but not especially steep ascent, the greater part of which took place on a fire road.

On the way back I met a man who helps to maintain the trail and we chatted briefly.  I mentioned that I had been pursuing the completion of the Pennsylvania section of the AT for some time on my own.  I had assumed that shuttles were no longer available on account of the COVID virus, but he assured that that is not the case.  That is encouraging news; for future projects of this nature I will investigate using shuttle services in order to complete the hike in one direction only.  I probably will do a there-and-back on the last remaining segment, however; it is only 5.5 miles and there is an alternate trail at the beginning of Lehigh Gap that loops with the AT and is said to be more scenic.  I would like to do the complete loop if I can.  It would mean a long day – nearly four hours of driving each way, and something over three hours for the hike itself.  Alternatively I could stay somewhere nearby overnight for a day. 

Having less than an hour to drive to the parking areas is certainly a great advantage.  I was able to arrive at the parking areas early and have as many hours of daylight at my disposal as possible, so that I did not feel pressed for time.  Also, it was a relief not to have to drive very far after the hike was completed.  The hotel at which I stayed was in Bethlehem, and it was quite serviceable, with clean, spacious rooms.  Curiously, it did not serve breakfast but it provided daily maid service – just the opposite approach of that of the inn at Jim Thorpe. 

I was somewhat disconcerted to see so many signs in support of Trump, including several billboards.  The Allentown/Bethlehem area may be in Pennsylvania but, after all, it is not rural.  I happened to speak on the phone on the night of the 31^st with JN, a friend who has been a life-long Democrat, and he took me by surprise by expressing reservations about Biden (his cognitive abilities in particular) and a reluctant admiration for Trump’s energy.  JN’s point of view is closer than mine to that of worker without a college education, and as I spoke with him I began to understand somewhat better why Trump appeals to some.  But this topic requires so much expansion that I must reserve it for another day – perhaps for tomorrow, since it seems appropriate for Election Day.

In the meantime, however, let’s not forget about the COVID statistics.  The virus has been no means taken a holiday.

10/31 – # of cases worldwide 46,367,473; # of deaths worldwide: 1,199,727; # of cases U.S.: 9,402,590; # of deaths; U.S.: 236,072. 

11/1 – # of cases worldwide 46,804,423; # of deaths worldwide: 1,205,044; # of cases U.S.: 9,473,720; # of deaths; U.S.: 236,471. 

11/2 – # of cases worldwide 47,311,505; # of deaths worldwide: 1,210,990; # of cases; U.S: 9,567,007; # of deaths U.S.: 236,981. 

Plans for hiking in Pennsylvania – Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is not one to submit tamely – The claims of Donald Trump Jr. vs. reality – Evening statistics

The dreary weather of yesterday has been easing since the morning and during the afternoon it became reasonably sunny.  The forecasts for the mid-Atlantic generally are favorable now that the effects of Zeta have come and gone (and compared with the Gulf Coast area we got off lightly, with only a day of continual rain, and little wind to cause any damage), so I plan to take a brief jaunt over the weekend to further my goal of completing the Appalachian Trail in Pennsylvania by the end of the year.  I don’t know if I can do the complete all that remains but with luck I should be able to cover the distance between LeHigh Gap and Rte. 309 on Sunday (about 13½ miles each way, which should be feasible if I start sufficiently early and if the drive to and from the trailhead is less than an hour). 

I have been critical of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in the past, but in the current contretemps that has erupted about her I stand firmly in her support.  She has been assailed by various conservatives for publicly appearing in expensive clothes – specifically, for a photo on the cover of the Vanity Fair magazine.  There is nothing intrinsically wrong with a woman (or a man, for that matter) wishing to look well-groomed and fashionable, and many conservative figures have done so on numerous public appearances.  Melania, Ivanka, and Tiffany Trump have done precisely the same thing, without so much as a word of criticism directed at them.  At least AOC pays her tailoring bills, which is more than I can guarantee for any member of the President’s family, given the example that its amiable patriarch sets by consistently defaulting on his personal debts.  She has responded to these attacks with characteristic vigor:  e.g., “Listen, if Republicans want pointers on looking your best, I’m happy to share,” and, in a comeback to Laura Ingraham’s comment about wearing outfits costing $14,000 in order to curse out Trump, “100% worth it, would do it again.” 

The First Family has been making headlines on its own account, or at any rate one member has.  Donald Trump Jr., in the course of abusing Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and Attorney General Keith Ellison for limiting attendance at President Trump’s upcoming Minnesota rally to 250 people in order to comply with the COVID guidelines (he is inclined to issue gross insults towards anyone whose opinions differ from his own, a habit he has acquired from his father), claimed that deaths in the U.S. due to COVID-19 are down to almost nothing.  In fact, an average of close to one thousand daily is succumbing to the disease.  We are #10 in the list of nations ranked by mortality rate and two of the nations listed above us – San Marino and Andorra – are micro-states.  Donald Trump Jr. cannot possibly excel his father’s record for blatant falsehoods, but he’s certainly giving it the good old college try.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide 45,890,088; # of deaths worldwide: 1,193,200; # of cases U.S.: 9,314,309             ; # of deaths U.S.: 235,142.  Today’s case increase was nearly 100,000, and we have had yet another day of nearly 1,000 deaths.  Our death toll has doubled since the middle of June; at the rate it is increasing, it will double again in another four months.  So much for the claims about the virus being under control.  At one point it appeared that Brazil’s case count was catching up to ours and would exceed it, but that is no longer true; its case count is now less than 60% of our own. 

Late autumn as soup season – The Islamic attacks in France – Evening statistics

Another relatively brief entry today, partly on account of the rain, which prevented me from doing much of anything.   Late autumn is a good time to experiment with various soups, however, so I ventured on preparing potage St. Germain, or French pea soup.  And it turned out well, but I would not be able to serve it to my vegan friends or even to my vegetarian ones without some modification:  it includes butter, cream, and a touch of salt pork.  It has a better flavor than the standard split pea soup because it corporates fresh peas and mint leaves in addition to the split peas and the texture is lighter and richer.  I’ve seen versions of the recipe that do not use the salt port (the addition it  makes to the flavor is not very noticeable), so I probably can omit that ingredient when catering to vegetarians; making it suitable for vegans will require some more innovation.  Something would have to take the place of the butter and cream in order to duplicate the texture, but I don’t know what can be used as a substitute.  A few of my cousins are vegan, so I will consult them for suggestions.

As far as news is concerned, we are basically in a holding pattern until the election.  Most of the headlines are focusing on details of the campaigns from both candidates.  The main topic outside of the election is the recent spate of killings in the French city of Nice by Muslim extremists.  Except one has to wonder if they should be called extremists.  When Christian fundamentalists commit atrocities, church groups in general are swift to condemn them.  Representatives of mosques are much more reluctant to follow suit when fundamentalists of their own religion commit murder and rapine.  A considerable number of Muslims appear indeed to be supporting them.  The government of Turkey has called for a boycott of French goods after Emmanuel Macron, the French President, gave orders to crack down on the persons who aided the perpetrator of an earlier beheading of a school teacher, while Mahathir Mohamad, a former Prime Minister of Malaysia, has said that Muslims have a right “to kill millions of French people for the massacres of the past.”  The current administration of one Muslim country and a former Prime Minister of another:  that seems fairly mainstream to me.  I do not see that Muslims in general are rushing to denounce and to disassociate themselves from the more extreme actions of their fundamentalists.  Some have issued statements to the effect that such actions are a distortion of Islam; but as Irshad Manji, the most clear-sighted opponent of Islamic fundamentalist violence, has pointed out:  “we Muslims will repeat, ‘This is not Islam.’ But in any religion, beliefs are only theory. The behavior of believers is reality. (Qur’an 4:135)”

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide 45,298,412; # of deaths worldwide: 1,185,618 # of cases U.S.: 9,204,472; # of deaths U.S.: 234,100.  Today has also seen a record number of new cases (over 80,000), with nearly 1,000 additional deaths.  It would seem that we are now, like many European nations, in the so-called “second wave” of the virus, were it not for the fact that we never really came to the end of the first one.  What is certain is that the reduction of outdoor activity as a result of colder temperatures will continue to drive the infection rates upwards. Virginia appears to be a relatively good location to be living in at the moment; it is 32^nd in the list of states ranked by the virus’s incidence rate and 38^th in mortality rate. 

Philadephia:  a retrospective – The rally in Omaha – Evening statistics – The second wave in Europe

In Philadelphia rioting and looting has been ongoing for the second consecutive day following the shooting death of Walter Wallace, policemen have sustained numerous injuries, and residents have been placed under curfew – but I am neglecting my responsibilities.  I should be concentrating on new developments and not dwelling upon such trite tales.  To say that the residents of Philadelphia skulk about in fear and trepidation is like saying that grass is green and that rain is wet; they’ve been doing nothing else for years.  I mention the circumstance for old acquaintance sake, having had the misfortune to live in that gloomy, unwelcoming, violence-plagued, inhospitable city when I was a graduate student.  My movements during that period had to be very circumscribed indeed, not only on account of the hostility (none the less acute for being quite impersonal, being generated out of a love of malice for its own sake) that greeted me whenever I ventured on foot into any neighborhood, black or white, outside of the university campus, but also on account the drivers’ attitudes towards pedestrians, by far the worst of any city I have visited, including Beijing and Rome.  The Boston drivers, who have a reputation of making life miserable for those who walk the streets of their city, are models of courtesy in comparison.  Then there was the matter of the football games; whether the Eagles were victorious or defeated for the day, any game they played was a guarantee of a sleepless night, on account of the enthusiastic expressions of glee or disappointment on the part of their dedicated fanbase on the neighborhood streets, lasting well after 4:00 AM.   So great was my resentment at being forced to restrict my movements on a daily basis and so great was the loathing that I developed for the place, that it reached a point when I began to wonder whether, if I were to hear of a catastrophe that wreaked destruction upon the entire city, I would be able to display the proper amount of grief.  This animus has modified somewhat over the years.  The city is said to have improved since the time I resided there and on the brief visits that I have made on occasion I have seen for myself that the area around the university is much pleasanter than it was in former days – but the city appears to be regressing yet again, and on the whole I would be just as well satisfied not to see it any more. 

The rally for Trump in Nebraska was not without interest.  It took place at the Eppley Airfield in Omaha, with temperatures in the 30s.  Several were taken to the hospital after the event as a result of standing for hours in the freezing cold and some had to walk three miles to the shuttle buses after Trump ended his speech and departed.  This image of Trump’s supporters being left out in the cold is no very inapt emblem of his administrative approach in general, as Biden (among others) was swift to point out. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 44,738,099; # of deaths worldwide: 1,178,513; # of cases U.S.: 9,117,931; # of deaths U.S.: 233,123.  We have sustained nearly 80,000 new cases today, the highest daily total to date, and over 1,000 deaths; of the daily increase in deaths worldwide, we account for 14/6% of the total. 

Ours is not the only nation undergoing difficulties, of course.  Germany has now imposed a new lockdown that will last at least four weeks.  Restaurants, bars, cinemas, theaters and other leisure facilities have been shut down, although restaurants may provide takeout for their customers.  The country had nearly 15,000 new cases today and many more are predicted.  France is also imposing a lockdown; more than half of its intensive care units are occupied by COVID patients.  Belgium, the Netherlands, Spain, Britain and the Czech Republic have all seen a surge of new cases in the past 14 days.  The European region in general (which as defined by the WHO includes Russia, Turkey, Israel and Central Asia) is entrenched in the so-called “second wave”; it accounts for nearly half of the new COVID virus cases this week. 

Hiking in the area of Harper’s Ferry – Mileage for the year – Finding one’s “comfort zone” – The energy of Donald Trump – Unreliability of polls – Evening statistics

I went with the Vigorous Hikers on a hike similar to the one we did on March 31^st, starting at the School Ridge along Bakerton Road.  The difference is that the pedestrian bridge over the Potomac had been closed earlier as a result of a train accident that caused so much damage as to render the bridge unusable, whereas it is fixed now.  We were thus able to go today from School Ridge to the Maryland side of the Potomac and then ascend Maryland Heights via a little-used route that approaches the overlook from the south.  After that we went up to the Stone Fort and descended down to Harper’s Ferry, where we took the Appalachian Trail through the town, cut across to another trail alongside the Shenandoah that eventually led to the Visitor Center, and then back to our parking area via Bolivar Heights.  The forecast had been for a rather cloudy and cool day, but it was a beautiful day in our area, quite sunny and relatively warm.  The views from Maryland Heights in particular were exceptionally clear.  I have not seen the overlook with so few people before.  Normally it is fairly crowded, even on weekdays.  However, it is now fairly late in the season, and fewer people are hiking as a result. 

The hike was 15½ miles, bringing the total amount of mileage hiked on the trails for the year to over 1700.  At this rate it looks like I will be logging in about 2,000 miles by the end of the year.  I hiked just under 1750 miles last year, which gives some indication of the rate of increase in hiking that resulted from the impact of the virus placing restrictions on so many other activities.

The hike on March 31^st was the first one in which I participated after various lockdown restrictions were issued, and I felt rather nervous then about traveling across state lines to meet with others for the purposes of hiking together.  The restrictions for out of doors for recreational purposes were rather vague, and at that point in time – it seems so long ago now – no one was certain about how exactly the restrictions would be enforced.  Now any such restrictions have been removed and I’ve been hiking with others so often that it causes no uneasiness at this point.  Such activities may show a bit of over-confidence, but it seems that out-of-door activity with others is much less likely to lead to infection than indoor gatherings – though of course the potential for catching the virus in this way is always present.  As one member of the group said, “Everyone has to work out his own comfort zone.”  I wear a mask while walking on the streets and entering stores, such social gatherings that I have attended have been with only a few others (never any with more than eight people) and for the most part out of doors, and social activity in general has been greatly reduced.  On the other side, I still do my own shopping rather than relying on deliveries and I go out hiking with others periodically.  I suppose I am pretty much middle-of-the-road as far as taking precautions against the virus is concerned.

I’ve been fluctuating about the prospects of the election results.  Much as I hate to admit it, Donald Trump is certainly energetic.  Despite having been ill so recently, he has taken on a grueling campaign schedule, organizing rallies in state after state, and speaking well over an hour on end at every single one of them.  Perhaps I should not be surprised; he has a great deal at stake.  If he does not secure office again, several lawsuits are pending– including at least one for attempted rape (!) – and their adjudications await him.  Without his high position to protect him, he can anticipate the loss of a great deal of money and even a possible term in prison.  

In the Icelandic saga of Njal, the eponymous character at one point notices a stranger in his household and he asks his wife who this new man is.  “He is one of your servants,” she replies, “I engaged him because he claimed to be ready with his hands.”  Njal guesses that his wife hired the man to do some unsavory task (specifically, to avenge the murder of one servant by stabbing the perpetrator), but his only comment is:  “His work will have vigor enough.  I’m not so sure of its value.”  That is perhaps as good a summation as any of my own opinion about our President’s recent activities.

Also, I have read a rather depressing interview with an experienced pollster who said, in effect, that the polls cannot be trusted.  When Hillary Clinton described those who voted for Trump in the 2016 election as “deplorables,” she unwittingly sowed the seeds of her own defeat.  Many people interviewed by poll-takers were reluctant to identify themselves with such a label, which had been taken up vigorously by several media outlets, and indicated that they would be voting for Clinton while resolving in secret to vote for her opponent.  As a result the poll results were misleading, giving Clinton a false level of confidence.  Biden, to be sure, is showing much less reliance on the polls than Clinton did and he does not personally denigrate those who vote for Trump; but his followers have no such restraint, and their frequent assertions that voters for Biden are better than voters for Trump both on moral and on intellectual grounds have resulted in the same evasive behavior by voters being interviewed by poll-takers. 

I admit to being somewhat perplexed myself by those who continue to support Trump, particularly in view of the daily statistics:

# of cases worldwide: 44,230,185; # of deaths worldwide: 1,171,188; # of cases U.S.: 9,034,338; # of deaths U.S.: 232,017.  Another day with over 70,000 new cases and nearly 1,000 deaths.  Our case count is now over 9 million, something over 20% of the COVID cases worldwide.  This figure is less disproportionate than it was some months ago, but it is still is a regrettable result for a country with 4% of the world’s population.  Our mortality rate is about 2.56%, slightly under that of 2.64% worldwide.  Even with our slightly lower mortality rate, our nation accounts for 19.8% of the deaths globally resulting from COVID. 

COVID in an assisted-living facility – Amy Barrett’s confirmation – Evening statistics

A brief entry today, with relatively little to record either about private life or the public sector.  I mainly went on various tasks today, shopping for various items, obtaining emissions testing for my car, and so on.  One of the errands was to visit my mother at the assisted-living facility.  Despite the efforts of the administrators running the facility, some isolated cases of the virus have broken out there.  All of the affected inmates have been placed under quarantine and restrictions on visits from outside have increased.  My mother’s caretaker assures me that my mother does not go out at all, while her caretaker goes out only for occasional errands such as picking up medicine at the pharmacy.  The opportunities for getting infected are thus relatively low, but it is disquieting.  Moving my mother elsewhere at this point is not feasible (she is wheelchair-bound and barely responds to outside stimuli of any kind) and all we can do is to wait it out.

The virus has made inroads in the public sector as well.  Mike Pence agreed not to preside over Amy Barrett’s confirmation hearing tonight because several members of his staff have tested positive for COVID and many attendees on both sides were concerned that his presence might expose them to greater risk of infection.  In the event, his vote was not needed.  The Vice President is expected to vote only if the Senate votes both pro and con are equal and a tie-breaking vote is required.  In this case 52 Senators voted in favor of Barrett, and thus she has been pushed through in what must go down as the swiftest Supreme Court Judge appointment in history, a bare 30 days after the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg and just a week before the election.  As many Democrats pointed out, the Republicans objected strongly to the nomination of Merrick Garland during Obama’s last year of administration, delaying matters for 293 days until the reins of power were held by Trump, enabling him to nominate Neil Gorsuch instead.  There thus is not even a pretense of evaluating a nominee upon his or her legal qualifications; ideology appears to be the only criterion that matters.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 43,762,880; # of deaths worldwide: 1,164,191; # of cases U.S.: 8,959,931; # of deaths U.S.: 231,028.  

A canceled hike – A defector from Trump’s policy towards the virus – Mark Meadows’ attitude of surrender – New restrictions in the U.K., Spain, and Italy – Evening statistics

I was supposed to hike with AD and a few others today, but the hike has been called off.  It was raining steadily when I arose this morning and it was supposed to continue to rain all day long.  The rain actually tapered off at times, but for the most part it was fairly dreary outside.  I was prepared to go through it and I have hiked in bad weather before, but it was a relief, all the same, to hear that everyone else decided to bow out.  Hiking in the rain simply isn’t much fun.  The last day of the hiking tour along the coast of Pembrokeshire a year ago our group had to go from Newport to St. Dogmael’s in a continual rain, with sharp winds in addition, over the course of 16 miles, and we were all very weary and dispirited by the end.  The hike that we had planned to do today – the loop from Elizabeth Furnace along Sherman Gap and Shawl Gap – could have been a hazardous undertaking under the circumstances.  The ascent up Sherman Gap in particular is steep and rocky, with numerous streamlets that cross the trail and that overflow very readily.  Even had we gone through with our plans to hike today, we certainly would have had to alter our route to something less risky in wet weather.

At least one prominent Trump supporter has become an advocate of wearing face masks, in defiance of his idol.  Chris Christie, the former governor of New Jersey, was hospitalized for COVID earlier this month, almost certainly as a result of attending an event at the White House.  He is now urging people to wear masks, saying that being without a mask such an event was a “serious failure” for him and that he is “lucky to be alive.”  He has not criticized Trump directly, but he has criticized Mike Pence for continuing to campaign after several of the latter’s senior staff (including Mark Short, Pence’s chief of staff) tested positive for the virus. 

Trump’s policy of ignoring the virus has worked against his own interests.  It is a statistical certainty that some of the members of Trump’s and Pence’s inmost circles currently affected by the virus will either die of it or be so severely ill as to be incapacitated for months.  Yet Donald Trump’s White House chief of staff Mark Meadows has now stated openly said that the coronavirus can’t be contained, ignoring the fact that many other countries have made at least an attempt to contain it and have a much lower casualty rate as a result.

The U.K. now has restrictions all across the country.  The default level is the so-called Tier 1:  no social gatherings indoors with more than six people, any consumption of food in restaurants and bars occurs only by customers who are seated, bars close between 10:00 PM and 5:00 AM, wedding ceremonies are limited to 15 attendees total, and funerals to 30 attendees.  For Tier 2 (which extends to parts of London and several areas in the Home Counties), the restrictions are greater:  no indoor social gatherings at all and no indoor sports or indoor gym exercise except among groups of immediate relatives.  For Tier 3 (much of Yorkshire and Lancashire), bars and pubs must operate as restaurants only and alcohol consumption can take place only at meals.  Travel in and out of such areas is strongly discouraged.  One friend of mine, who lives in Shropshire, was vacationing in Wales when the restrictions were announced; whereupon he hastened to return home, not wishing to take the chance of his area being upgraded to a travel-restricted area and thereby leaving him stranded.

Spain has declared a state of emergency and has imposed a daily curfew lasting from 11:00 PM to 6:00 AM.  Italy has also imposed new restrictions:  Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte ordered that gyms, swimming pools, theaters and cinemas shut down as of tomorrow and not re-open until Nov. 24^th. Both nations were among the hardest hit by the first wave of the pandemic, but for a while it seemed that the amount of contagion had fallen under control.  But new infections have recently been increasing at an alarming rate, and once again its death tolls have been soaring.  

The rise of cases in the U.S. over the past several tests has already been recorded, although there is one re-assuring note:  the percentage of tests that yield positive results has gone down.  The average rate is now a little over 6%, a substantial reduction over the 22% rate that was prevalent during the month of April. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 43,319,804; # of deaths worldwide: 1,158,770; # of cases U.S.: 8,888,328; # of deaths U.S.: 230,507.  For once, a daily death toll of less than 500, the first time in many days. 

Extension of Farmer’s Market schedule – How to handle Halloween? – Hesitation in taking a COVID vaccine when developed – The virus in Poland – The imminent demise of The Strand – Evening statistics

I went to the Farmer’s Market, the last one to be held this year, or so I thought.  In the past they began in May and ended in October.  However, as I found out, this year the season has been extended for three weeks in November, as part of the effort to ensure continual economic activity.  It certainly is convenient; it is very pleasant, for instance, to be able to buy pickling cucumbers (which are the ideal size for including in pack lunches to bring along on hikes) without worrying about their spoiling so rapidly in the manner that packaged cucumbers from the supermarket do.

There is some confusion as to what to do about Halloween this year.  Normally I have candy on hand for trick-or-treaters, but this year I’m reluctant to open the door to interact with numbers of parents and children, and for that matter parents are reluctant to go from door to door with their children.  The risk of infection is not great, but the general attitude seems to be:  why take unnecessary chances?  I suppose I can put out a bowlful of candy with a note asking those who venture out for the evening to take one portion only and leave some for the others, but that hasn’t worked out very well in previous years when I’ve not been at home on Halloween evenings, and there’s no reason to suppose that this year will be any different in that respect.  There generally is at least one teenager roaming on his own who will grab anything that he can get.

A recent survey in the U.K. the U.S., and Spain explored the issue of vaccine hesitancy.  This is not the same as anti-vaccination; people simply are reluctant to accept a new vaccine without any proven record of success.  I myself am among these.  Should a vaccine be completed and approved by the FDA, I will not be rushing to take it.  I will wait some months in order to obtain sampling data as to whether or not its side effects are potentially dangerous.  With an aggressive development schedule such as that for the COVID virus vaccine, such side effects are more likely to occur.  It seems that my attitude is far from unique; of those who responded to the survey, only 46.8% said that they would completely agree with FDA recommendations. 

Yet another national leader has become infected.  Poland’s President Andrzej Duda tested positive for the virus today; he says that he has no symptoms but has placed himself in quarantine.  As is the case with many other countries in Europe, the recent spikes in the virus after a relative flattening of the curve during the summer has strained Poland’s hospital system to the breaking point.  The government is preparing to open field hospitals but it is not sure where it will find the doctors and nurses to staff them.  It has also instituted new restrictions, although it has not gone so far as to impose a complete lockdown. 

Another economic casualty is looming as a result of the COVID virus.  The iconic Strand bookstore in New York, which is nearly a century old and has survived crises such as the Great Depression, World War II, and e-commerce challengers, may be defeated by the virus.  Revenues have declined by 70% this year and the owners have said that they have reached a point at which continuing to operate is no longer feasible.  Independent bookstores generally have undergone great economic stress even before the virus began.  Of the 48 bookstores that used to be neighborhood known as “Book Row,” only the Strand remains.  An online campaign has begun to save the bookstore; one can only hope that it will succeed.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 42,913,857; # of deaths worldwide: 1,154,282; # of cases U.S.: 8,824,114; # of deaths U.S.: 230,045.  India at one point was threatening to overtake our case count and become the country with the greatest number of COVID cases in absolute numbers (though still well below our incidence rate, on account of its much larger population), but that has changed in recent weeks.  Several days of increases well over 70,000 apiece have pushed us firmly into first place with no likelihood of being challenged for the title for some time to come.  Our case count now exceeds India’s by nearly 1,000,000.  Peru is the only nation with a population over 10,000,000 whose incidence rate exceeds our own. 

The last debate – Eric Trump defends his father “not wisely but too well” – Another hiking incident – Recollections of a well-known missing hiker case – Evening statistics

The debate of last night was not the fiasco I was anticipating.  The threat of the mute button appears to have affected both candidates – can we make this feature a permanent one for all future debates?  Trump in particular showed considerable restraint in comparison with his previous performance.  As for Biden – he will never be a great debater and his energy seemed to flag in the second hour, but he made his points with conviction and he managed to slip in some good one-liners, as evidenced in the following exchange about the coronavirus:

TRUMP:  We’re learning to live with it.

BIDEN:  We’re dying with it.

Kristen Welker must be commended; she refused to be bullied or to be deflected from her line of questioning.  At the same time, she did not draw attention to herself; she concentrated on delivering an actual debate between the two candidates and she was far more successful in this respect than the previous moderators.

Trump’s answers to her questions were what might be expected, although he did not make a spectacle of himself in the manner of the first debate.  Truth, as should be evident, is not a high priority for him.  Perhaps that is the case for any politician, but his disregard for it at times has to be heard to be believed.  He said, for instance, that we’re “rounding the corner” as far as the virus is concerned, quite a startling claim in view of the fact that cases are rising in 34 states, hospitalizations have increased in 37 states, and the average daily rate of increase in new infections has been about 59,000 ever since August.  What a good story Trump has to present to us – if only those pesky statistics didn’t get in the way.

At any rate it is over, thankfully over.  No one will change his mind about either candidate as a result, but at least we can end the cycle of debates on a much more sedate note than the one with which it began. One might even go so far as to say that last night’s debate added an element of respectability to the proceedings.  The first debate made us a global laughing-stock, so it is a relief to see our electioneering system redeemed to some extent by this one.

Whatever else may be said about Donald Trump, his children certainly have the quality of loyalty.  Whether they have the quality of intelligence as well is . . . debatable.  Here, for example, is Eric Trump, leaping to his father’s defense concerning the latter’s recent interview with Leslie Stahl:  “Who can blame my father for walking out on Leslie Stahl and 60 Minutes?  That show is simply a waste of half an hour.”  What am I missing here?  Has CBS revamped its schedule on a whim and changed “60 Minutes” to “30 Minutes”?

There is news of another hiking incident, this one concerning a missing hiker.  Such reports are a warning.  As the journal indicates, I hike a great deal, and I don’t always notify people in advance about the route I plan to take if I hike alone, even though I know that I should.  Sam Dubal, an assistant professor at the University of Washington, was reported missing on October 12^th after he didn’t return from a hiking trip in Mount Rainier National Park.  He had left on the 9^th and was supposed to return the following day.  He was 33 years old, in good physical condition, and an experienced hiker, but in the nine days that followed the report searches from rangers, volunteer hikers, and helicopter crews for him found nothing.  His relatives believe that he is still alive and are urging the park service to continue the search, but his chances for survival are minimal at best by this time.

In 2017, when I attended the Appalachian Trail Conference, one of the hikes I led took me past the location where Geraldine Largay had last been traced.  I admit that I was curious to see it, for her story had been repeated many times among the hiking community.  She was hiking the AT four years earlier, starting from Harper’s Ferry and intending to end at Katahdin, for the most part in company with another, more experienced hiker.  But her companion had to bail out in New Hampshire on account of a family emergency, at which point Largay continued on her own.  In central Maine she left the trail to relieve herself and then was unable to find the trail again.  The woods there are very dense and it is easy to get lost even if you step as little as fifty feet away from the trail.  When she realized that she was lost she went up to higher ground, presumably in the hope of getting a better cell phone signal, but also, unfortunately, venturing further from the trail.  Finally she set up camp in a location about 2 miles from the trail and waited in hopes that a search party would find her.  They never did, despite their best efforts.  It was only two years after her death, from exposure and starvation, that a logging company surveyor accidentally came across her campsite and her remains. 

I could hardly believe it when I passed the area in question.  I had imagined it, from the reports I read earlier, to be an almost impossibly remote place, miles away from any human habitation.  In fact, the trail at that point is close to a stream.  Had I been in such a situation, I would have aimed for the stream and followed its course.  In one direction the stream comes to the end of a forest road within 100 yards from her probable point of departure from the AT.  In the other direction it lets out onto a second woods road about 1½ miles away.  In either case I would have walked along the road until I found an occupied house or a car driver.  But of course it is easy to pass judgment.  She was alone, she was prone to anxiety attacks, the woods in that area are nearly impenetrable, and it is not easy to think clearly under such circumstances.  There are currently 23 people listed as missing on the National Parks website, which makes for grim reading.  In several cases the missing person left his or her car at a parking area and began hiking, never to be seen again afterwards.  Searchers are often hampered by not knowing in which direction the missing hiker went.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 42,459,408; # of deaths worldwide: 1,148,687; # of cases U.S.: 8,743,389; # of deaths U.S.:229,273.  Today we experienced an increase of 77,646 new cases, the highest daily increase to date.

Tragedy on a plane flight – Uncertainties of travel – Death of James Randi – Religion without magic – Mall shopping – New games with political motifs – The upcoming debate – Evening statistics

A recent episode shows how uncertain travel has become, especially when using transportation shared by others.  Yesterday a woman died from the COVID virus on a plane flight from Las Vegas to Dallas.  She fell unconscious on the flight and stopped breathing, and all attempts at resuscitation failed.  The autopsy revealed that she was COVID-infected.  She had underlying conditions – morbid obesity and asthma – and recently she had afflicted with shortness of breath, but in all probability she was unaware that she had become infected when she boarded the plane.  She was only 38 years old.  Not only is this story tragic in itself, but all of the other passengers are now in a state of suspense as to whether they might have contracted the virus from her. 

I myself had apprehensions traveling on Tuesday, concerning both the Metro and the flight to Bangor.  The Metro was much less full than it has been in the past, even on late mornings past the rush hour, and everyone wore masks.  The flight, similarly, was less than half full, everyone wore masks, and as the airline provided no food or drink service (there is no need for one, since the flight is about 90 minutes long at the most), no one removed his or her mask at any time.  Still, I’ve been in close proximity in an enclosed space with several people over a sustained period of time.  I plan to get tested to reassure myself that I haven’t become infected.  It seems likely that people will have to take such precautions every time they travel for some time to come.

James Randi died yesterday at 92.  Professional magicians are famously skeptical about anyone who makes claims of possessing supernatural or paranormal powers, but Randi was more active than most, devoting his life to exposing the frauds by which people such as faith healers, astrologers, mind readers, palm readers, tarot card readers, parapsychologists, etc., induced untold numbers of people to part with their money and sometimes with their health as well. 

I’ve never thought of myself as particularly pious, but I am gratified to come from a heritage that made a significant contribution to the world at large:  namely, the concept of a deity who cannot be constrained or conditioned by rites and ceremonies of magic.  The attitude is perhaps best defined by prophet Elijah, laughing at the priests of Baal as they recite their futile charms and incantations, and asking ironically whether Baal is failing to respond because he is out of town at the moment or perhaps taking a nap.  Regrettably, the idea of a deity uncontaminated by magic is one that humanity in general has been very reluctant to accept.  Judaism may have originated the concept, but as time wore on the mystical Gnostic element kept intruding , eventually resulting in the retreat into the Cabala – and a retreat is precisely what it was – and then of course the Hasidic movement made matters worse, blithely ascribing miracles to their favored rebbes and affording them a status that any priest of Baal might envy.  The record of Christianity is no better:  even though Christ himself displayed considerable irritation when people persisted in regarding him as a miracle-monger (see Matthew 16:1-4, for example), the Catholic Church elevates miracles to quasi-divine status – no one can be canonized, for instance, unless evidence of a miracle performed after his or her death is produced – and the Protestant sects have their emotionally overwrought faith-healers.  Nor do secularists do much better; there are legions of non-believers who nonetheless place their faith in astrology, cryptids, Tarot cards, dowsing rods, and who knows what else.  G. K. Chesterton said that they should not be called non-believers but should be labeled as all-believers.  Hardly any group, it seems, can do without some of variety of magic.

And yet how tawdry this impulse is, after all, reducing God to the level of a stage performer!  For those who wish to experience a miracle, I would say:  get outside for a moment and take a look at the variety of leaf colors in autumn or at various plants germinating in the spring; gently touch a baby’s cheek to appreciate its texture, at once soft and firm, like a ripe plum; listen to the chorus of birdsong in the morning; observe a cat walking along the narrow top of fence ten feet high with the ease and confidence we show on treading a sidewalk; go into the kitchen while a loaf of bread is baking and sniff to take in its aroma; plant a seed, a bulb, or a shoot in the earth and watch it transform itself into a flower, or an edible vegetable, or even an entire tree.  These are miracles worth having.  Because they occur every day we take them for granted, but none of our numerous laboratories can even come close to duplicating a single one of them.  This perhaps is the meaning of the verse about the kingdom of heaven belonging to little children:  to very young children almost everything they see and hear and touch is strange and wonderful, and in this attitude they display greater wisdom than their more blasé seniors.

RIP, James Randi.  You will be missed.  People like you are needed.  You may have considered yourself an atheist, but you came far closer to a genuinely religious life than any of the numerous faith healers and self-appointed priests, church-sponsored or secular, whom you helped to debunk.

On a more personal note, I went to the optometrist today to have my eyes dilated for the purposes of inspection for cataract and laser scars as a result of the retina re-attachment operation four years ago.  When it was over she told me not to go outside without sunglasses because the dilation would make my eyes sensitive to the glare of the sun for a few hours.  I had not brought sunglasses with me but I thought:  no problem – the optometrist’s office is within a mall, and surely I can pick up a pair at one of the stores.  And so it was that I discovered at first hand why department stores are going out of business.  The effects of the COVID virus, of course, have been severe upon the retail industry, but department stores have been dwindling in any case.  My present predicament highlighted one reason:  I had quite a difficult time finding what I wanted.  At both Macy’s and Lord & Taylor the sunglasses were placed adjacent to the counters displaying jewelry, and they were every bit as expensive as necklaces.  Had I bought one of them, I would have wound up paying considerably more for a pair without any vision correction than I did for the prescription glasses that I use for reading.  At last I found a selection of quite usable sunglasses at J. C. Penney’s for under $15.  But I’m afraid that in general the typical department store chain at this point is a jack-of-all-trades and master of none.  One can buy better and cheaper products at other stores that specialize in them, and the Internet has made searching for the items with the most affordable prices much easier (including, of course, those that can be ordered by mail).   Already Lord & Taylor’s is closing its doors, and others are certain to follow suit. 

While I was at the mall I amused myself by taking glimpses at a few other stores, although I am not a window shopper in general.  One store specialized in various games, especially in those that appeal to young children.  When I took a look I found, to my surprise, two new games inspired by Donald Trump.  One is a game called “No Trump,” in which each player draws a card in turn.  The card contains four intentionally outrageous quotations, and the player who draws it has to guess which one Trump did not originate.  The player who guesses the greatest number of “no-Trump” quotations wins.  The other operates in a similar manner – that is, of players drawing a card in turns – but in this case the card postulates a certain situation (such as Twitter banning misstatements about the coronavirus, for example) along with three possible reactions from Trump, and the player has to guess which one Trump is most likely to take.  Again, the player with the greatest number of correct guesses wins.  Should Trump be defeated in the upcoming election (as I earnestly hope he will), it will be a great benefit to the country at large, but it must be admitted that our political scene will become significantly less colorful as a result.

The last Presidential debate is scheduled for tonight, and I am bracing myself to watch as much of it as I can stand.  The people running the debate have said that they will cut of the microphone of either candidate who makes an unauthorized interruption..  But I have no doubt that my friend Donald is equal to the occasion.  Surely he can raise his voice and scream and shriek and shout and rant without the benefit of any microphone.  He has been a bit hoarse of late, to be sure; but if he is in need of assistance he should be able to turn to Kimberly Guilfoyle, his Daughter-in-Law Elect, for training in vocal projection.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 41,963,462; # of deaths worldwide: 1,142,085; # of cases U.S.: 8,657,940; # of deaths U.S.: 228,305.  Our figures with respect to the rest of the world have decreased to some extent.  We now account for a little over 20% of the cases worldwide and just under 20% of the deaths.  About 29% of the cases still active are American.  But this (comparative) improvement may not last long; today’s increase of new cases was over 70,000.

The saga of obtaining possession of the car left behind in Maine – The virus’s effects on American driving habits – The COVID virus increasing with renewed vigor, both here and abroad – Evening statistics

I’ve recovered the car at last!  It was something of an adventure, because I had to go to Maine to retrieve it.  Whenever there are many links in a chain of events, there are plenty of opportunities for things to go wrong, and in this case the links were numerous:  taking the Metro to Reagan National Airport, taking the plane from the airport to Bangor, walking from the airport to the bus terminal, taking the bus from Bangor to Medway, and walking from the bus stop in Medway to the hotel where I was staying for the night.   The bus terminal itself was closed, but I was able to pursue the necessary ticket in Medway.  My opinion of the inefficiency of Down-easters generally was intensified by this process; the two cashiers at the Medway stop (which is a gas station) seemed utterly confounded by the process of issuing tickets to the passengers.  To be sure, they were both new at the job, but they had still been there for a couple of weeks at least, and the bus stops there every day; they had adequate time to get used to the procedure by now. 

The walk from the bus stop to the hotel was only about 1/3 mile long, but it is difficult to feel confident walking in the dark to a destination you’ve never seen before.  But all went well.  I reached the hotel without any mishap and it turned out to be plain but comfortable.  I had expected something much worse, because when I made the reservation over the phone, the clerk I spoke with seemed not merely pleased to book a room for me, but incredulous as well.  The hotel is not much used by visitors interested in visiting Baxter State Park, the main attraction of the region, because it is several miles further away from the main park entrance than Millonocket, and most tourists accordingly stay there instead.  But the hotel in Medway was not at all deficient, though certainly not luxurious:  the room was spacious, the bed was comfortable, and both the room and the lobby were very clean.

Then in the morning I left the hotel after sampling what the managers called a “continental” breakfast (merely toast and coffee, but enough to start the day with) to walk four miles to the auto repair shop, where I picked up the car and drove back home – which is easier said than done, because the distance is about 750 miles and I did not arrive at my house until after 8:00 PM. 

A study has shown what anyone who has driven an automobile over the past few months has already known:  namely, that driving habits have altered as a result of the lowered amount of traffic, and not for the better.  The percentage of confirmed collisions occurring at speeds greater than 70 mph increased by 50%, speeding on both side streets and highways has also increased (including driving over 100 mph on highways), and as of June the rate of deaths per 100 million miles driven jumped by 34.4% compared to the previous year.  Not surprisingly, 26% of drivers surveyed reported they would not return to their previous commuting routine once normal activities resumed in their region.

There was plenty of news to listen to on the radio during the drive, and the main news is that the virus is expanding rapidly in North America, Europe, and Asia now that the warm weather is over in the Northern Hemisphere, especially as so many nations have abandoned their lockdown strategies.  There are new centers of a high concentration of virus infections in the Midwest, and in Wisconsin in particular; the massive motorcycle rally in Sturgis two months ago may have played a role in this.  It seems likely that Thanksgiving celebrations in general will be discouraged by officials in various states, because of the risk associated with large gatherings of people.  But the U.S., although it still is in the lead as far as the case count and the death toll are concerned, is far from unique.  The COVID virus is re-asserting itself globally, as a glance at three countries in particular will demonstrate.

The virus has been breaking out with renewed force all over Europe, but the Czech Republic especially has been overwhelmed.  It now has more new COVID cases than any other major country, totaling to nearly 15,000 in the past 24 hours.  In the first 17 days of October, more people have died of the virus than during the previous eight months of the epidemic combined.  Of course, it is not the only afflicted European nation; Belgium has issued a warning about expectations of a “tsunami” of new infections and Ireland has just imposed a new lockdown that is supposed to last six weeks. 

Most of the countries in South America, of course, have long been faring badly, chiefly on account of the sub-par medical systems and the irresponsible attitudes of their leaders – Brazil in particular.  Argentina, however, pursued a rigorous lockdown policy and appeared for several months to have the virus under control.  But in the past week or so the rate of virus infections has spiraled, causing its case count to surpass the 1,000,000 mark (the country with the smallest population to do so).  In the past 24 hours, there have been nearly 13,000 new infections.  Its death toll at present is proportionately just under that of the U. S.  For that matter, of the countries whose death toll in proportion to its population exceeds that of the U.S., no less than five of them – Peru, Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, and Ecuador – are South American, which is saying a great deal for a region with only 13 countries in all.  And the government of Argentina is, understandably, reluctant to impose another lockdown; its economy has suffered greatly as a result and many of its citizens have become impoverished on account of the shrinkage in labor.

The Mideast is another heavily affected region, of which Iran appears to have taken the lead.  It now has well over 500,000 cases and over 30,000 deaths.  These are the official figures; the actual numbers may be considerably higher.  Deputy Health Minister Iraj Harirch recently said Iran’s true death toll was probably twice the official count.  Hospitals in Iran are nearly at full capacity and will have greatly difficulties in absorbing any significant new influx of patients.  Its economy, like Argentina’s has suffered greatly as a result of the virus, and their difficulties have been compounded by the sanctions imposed upon it by the U.S. 

It was very strange to listen to reports of so much distress in various regions of our own country and of many others abroad while driving along highways that for the most part were bordered by woodlands displaying their full autumnal splendor.  The contrast between what I heard on the news and what I saw on the road could hardly be more striking.  Much of the drive went through areas that are all but uninhabited, going through miles of forest uncluttered by urban sprawl, and the scene that unfolded before my eyes for the greater portion of the day appeared quiet, peaceful, and serene. 

Yesterday’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 40,019,315 of deaths worldwide: 1,128,809; # of cases U.S.: 8,516,744; # of deaths U.S.: 226,052.  

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 41,459,816; # of deaths worldwide: 1,135,657; # of cases U.S.: 8,582,588; # of deaths U.S.: 227,369.

Donald Trump (unintentionally) praises Joe Biden – The Satmar congregation’s abortive wedding celebration – The Hasids’ undeserved reputation for tradition – Common traits of fundamentalist religious movements, Christian and Jewish alike – Evening statistics

I hesitate to write any more about Donald Trump when I’ve already urged so much against him.  I want this account to be a blog of life generally as it is while being affected by the ramifications of the COVID virus, not a political diatribe.  There are plenty of those directed at Trump as it is. 

But still . . .

What can he possibly be thinking at times?  In a recent attempt to belittle his opponent he made the dire claim that Biden would “listen to scientists” when making policies to combat the effects of the virus.  It’s as if he’s channeling the spirit of the prophet Balaam, intending to curse but uttering a blessing against his will.  He must know that one of the chief criticisms against him at this point is that he allowed the virus to spin out of control by ignoring the advice of the most prominent immunologists, and now he has tacitly admitted that his critics are correct.  Biden, of course, happily concurred with this statement, not bothering to conceal his delight at the praise his opponent inadvertently bestowed upon him. 

 I have written a great deal about the evangelical Christians, for the most part criticizing them severely, so it is only fair that I direct my attention to another group of fundamentalists:  namely, the Hasidic Jews.  The Satmar congregation had planned a celebration of their rabbi’s grandson that would, if it had gone through, have been attended by 10,000 people.  New York State Health Commissioner Howard Zucker lost no time in signing a Section 16 order barring the event.  Governor Cuomo had issued an executive order earlier this month that limits gatherings in houses of worship in New York City neighborhoods that have seen spikes in Covid-19 cases, including several with large Orthodox Jewish communities.  The order limits gatherings to no more than 25% capacity or a maximum of 10 people in red zone clusters, while those in the orange zone can operate at up to 33% capacity with a maximum of 25 people. Houses of worship in a yellow zone may operate at up to 50% capacity.  Clearly, an event with 10,000 attendees would greatly exceed this limit, no matter how large the house of worship might be.  Amazingly, the organizers backed down.  The Orthodox Jews – in New York, at any rate – have been just as recalcitrant in disregarding such regulations as their fundamentalist Christian counterparts, and as a result the counties in which they are concentrated have a COVID test positivity rate of 5.5%, more than five times the state’s average.

There is a widespread impression that the Hasidic Jews with their long sidelocks and uniform of gabardines are the “real” Jews, the ones with the strongest links to past traditions.  That impression is false:  Hasidic Judaism as we know it today is a recent development.  (In fairness it must be admitted the word “recent” when applied to a people with 3,000 years of recorded history may seem like a fairly long time to some.)  Israel ben Eliezer, the Baal Shem Tov and founder of the Hasidic movement, flourished in the first half of the 18^th century and he probably would have disapproved of some of the developments that occurred after his death – the institution of rabbinic dynasties, for example.  At all events, the Hasids are newcomers in the history of Judaism in the same way that Methodists are newcomers in the history of Christianity – and, interestingly, Israel ben Eliezer and John Wesley are near contemporaries.  It is doubtful that either one of them even heard of the other, but they were both strongly affected by the Romantic movement that was emerging during their lifetimes and incorporated many of the ideas from that movement into their systems of religious belief.  They certainly injected a new vitality into the religious institutions of their day, but they each represent as much a break from tradition as anything else.  Jews in earlier times, for example, did not have a distinctive dress, unless they were compelled to wear one by a hostile state; they probably were somewhat more relaxed about the dietary laws and restrictions on Sabbath activities; and the rabbis among them were expected to be self-supporting..

There is another trait that these religious movements have in common:  in the long run they created more obstacles than avenues to the betterment of the lives of ordinary people.  Initially they offered a vigorous reaction, indeed a rebuke, to the harsh insensitivity of pre-democratic Europe to the needs and claims of the common man.  But their glamorization of ignorance and superstition, their fostering of a tiny priestly upper class at the expense of everyone else in the congregations, and their hostility to developments in scientific advances condemned their followers to a backward, closed-in, marginal existence, frequently mired in impoverished circumstances with no hope of melioration.  We certainly see these trends in the fundamentalist religious movements today.

Having, as I do not doubt, condemned myself to eternal perdition in the eyes of any religious fundamentalist who chances to read this, I move on to the daily statistics as of 8:00 PM:

# of cases worldwide: 40,639,083; # of deaths worldwide: 1,122,932; # of cases U.S.: 8,456,653; # of deaths U.S.: 225,222. 

Returning to the Appalachian Trail in Pennsylvania – The oncoming debate – Evening statistics

I have not visited the section of the Appalachian Trail that runs through Pennsylvania for some time, primarily because I’ve been away on account of the recent trips to Maine and southwestern Virginia.  I decided to get to that area today, starting at Port Clinton.  Originally I intended to go to the Pinnacle and back, about 10 miles each way.  However, the AT from the Pinnacle goes roughly west both northbound and southbound, and I did not realize upon returning that I was on the northbound route until about a mile further.  However, on making inquiries I found that there was a side trail (the Furnace Creek Trail) that runs from one junction with the AT to another, rather like the Ribble Trail that I had done earlier this month.  I thus was able to make a loop that returned me to a point in the trail about 5½ miles from Port Clinton.  An additional advantage is that this route cut off some of the rockier section that I otherwise would have had to backtrack, including a descent from Pulpit Rock.  The route I ended up taking actually was slightly shorter than what I had planned (19 miles total instead of 20).  It had a fair amount of ups and downs, totaling to about 4000 feet of elevation gain, but none of the ascents were very long and there were only a few steep sections.  There were several people on the trail today, but I expected as much – not only on account of the weather (in the mid-sixties most of the day, sunny and clear and dry) and the state of the autumn foliage, but also because there are several campgrounds in the area.  In addition, the Pinnacle is a popular destination and so is Pulpit Rock, another overlook about 2¼ miles west of the Pinnacle itself.

I can thoroughly recommend this section of the trail.  There are some rocky areas and even a couple of boulder fields,, but I never encountered any of the difficulties I experienced on the area further south close to Swatara Gap.  At times the AT gives way to a fire road, so that it has alternating degrees of difficulty throughout and does not become a perpetual struggle to maintain balance.  Pulpit Rock is an enjoyable rock scramble, with lovely views at the top, including one of the Pinnacle to the side.  The rock pile appears to be formed by a glacier; in fact this is not the case, for the southernmost spot the ice flow reached was 45 miles further north on the Pocono Plateau. But the repetitive freeze-thaw cycles occurring a short distance from the glacier itself during the 10,000-year winter caused the ridge-crest rocks to fracture. These rock fragments broke away from the outcrops and slid down the slopes where they accumulated as large masses of talus (rock debris).  I quite enjoyed the ascent but I’m just as well satisfied to have gone back a different way, in the same manner that I did for the ascent from Lehigh Gap.  Rock scrambles of this nature are much more enjoyable going up than going down. 

But the Pinnacle itself is a wonderful sight, easily the most spectacular I’ve seen along the Pennsylvanian AT.  It has something of the scope and range of the views of McAfee Knob in Virginia, so eagerly sought out by professional photographers.  The views at McAfee Knob, of course, are more extensive, surveying numerous distinct mountain ranges, whereas the views from Pinnacle go down directly into Lehigh Valley defined by the surrounding ridges.  Tthe various rural communities at the base provide a vista of fields and farm buildings interspersed with the remains of the forest and with undulating hills that create miniature valleys of their own. 

There now remain 28 miles of the AT in Pennsylvania for me to cover.  Going along this distance there-and-back means, of course, 56 miles total.  I should be able to complete this amount in three long hikes or four hikes somewhat more moderate.  Another trip to a town convenient to the trailheads seems indicated.  I had no problems driving this morning to the trailhead but the drive back was troublesome – lots of traffic along I-270, expanding and contracting like an accordion for miles on end, and in any case the drive was more than three hours each way. 

Yesterday’s entry was very doleful in tone, and I can’t see from the news headlines that matters have changed very much in the course of a day, but it felt reassuring to know that the pleasures of fresh air, forest trails, autumn leaves, and mountain vistas are still within reach.

The third and last presidential debate is scheduled for Thursday.  It seems to me that Trump could borrow a line from Bette Davis’s Margo Channng in All About Eve:   “Fasten your seatbelts, it’s going to be a bumpy night.”

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 40,264,218; # of deaths worldwide: 1,118,167; # of cases U.S.: 8,387,798; # of deaths U.S.: 224,730. 

Autumnal splendor – Women leaving the workplace – Donald Trump’s methods of wooing voters – Trump admitting to the possibility of losing – Savannah Guthrie victrix – Evening statistics

Another lovely day, autumn scenery at its finest.   Everything looked serene today, the mellow October sunlight highlighting the rich assortment of colors from the leaves of maples, sycamores, elms, cherry trees, pear trees, hickories, oaks, birches, beeches – to name some of the bewildering variety of trees in the eastern American forest region, one of the most bio-diverse areas on the planet.  I am reminded of the passage in The Handmaid’s Tale when Offred, languishing in a state of semi-slavery, glances outside at night and notices the new moon:  “a wishing moon, a sliver of ancient rock, a goddess, a wink.  The moon is a stone and the sky is full of deadly hardware, but oh God, how beautiful anyway. “  And so I felt today.  Our country is undergoing continual trial and trouble from the pandemic, the levels of racial tension seem to have reached unprecedented heights, the election threatens to be one of the most violent in our history – but how beautiful it was outside anyway.

Margaret Atwood’s book seems unhappily appropriate at the moment, because one of the effects of the COVID virus has been the reduction of women in the workforce in unprecedented numbers.  With hundreds of thousands of students being forced to obtain their schooling at home and numerous daycare centers going out of business, someone has to supervise the children during the day and that someone is usually the mother of the family.  Sometimes it is possible for a parent to conduct work online, but only about a third of our occupations can be pursued that way.  The others (healthcare, education, factory work, truck driving, cleaning services, utility services, among others) require the worker’s physical presence.  About 865,000 women have dropped out of the workforce, in contrast to 216,000 men.  It’s not only women who will be worse off for this development.  There is a strong correlation between companies hiring women executives and their profitability, resulting in 18% – 69% boosts for the Fortune 500 firms with the best records of promoting women.  It is going to take a long time for our economy to rebound, even after the virus is brought under control. 

Donald Trump certainly has an unusual approach towards attempts at winning people over to him.  When asked whether suburban women no longer liked him, he responded that they should like him because he’s in favor of law and order, and he reinforced this remark as follows:  “So can I ask you to do me a favor? Suburban women, will you please like me?  I saved your damn neighborhood.”  For some inscrutable reason, the suburban women here seem for the most part unmoved by such an appeal.  Perhaps they are more amenable to these tender persuasions in some other neighborhood.

It does appear that he is at last realizing that losing the election is a possibility.  “Could you imagine if I lose?” Trump said Friday evening at a campaign rally in Macon, GA. “My whole life, what am I going to do? I’m going to say, ‘I lost to the worst candidate in the history of politics.’ I’m not going to feel so good. Maybe I’ll have to leave the country. I don’t know.”  If it is any consolation to him, many believe that the distinction of being the worst candidate in the history of politics belongs to him rather than to his opponent.  As far as his leaving the country is concerned, there are two stumbling blocks to this dire threat:  first, he would be hard-pressed to find another country that would accept him (perhaps his buddy Vladimir Putin would take him in?) and second, that he may be somewhat restricted in his movements if he receives a jail sentence after the election for his financial defalcations. 

The NBC network is expressing profound gratitude towards Savannah Guthrie, the moderator of Trump’s town hall yesterday.  Previously NBC was accused, when it agreed to televise his town hall, of rewarding Trump for rejecting the debate commission’s plan to conduct the second debate virtually.  Whatever else might be said about the town hall, presenting Trump with the opportunity to confront Guthrie cannot possibly be described as a “reward.”  The Vox website, among others, said her quick line of questioning, pushbacks, and fact checks “probably made the White House wish they had just done the debate.”

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 39,937,065; # of deaths worldwide: 1,114,183; # of cases U.S.: 8,341,836; # of deaths U.S.: 224,278.  Towards the end of March Dr. Fauci predicted that our country would have between 100,000 and 200,000 deaths as a result of the COVID virus.  In retrospect this forecast seems touchingly modest.  We almost certainly will reach over 300,000 by the end of the year, and to a large extent this is due to the willfully oblivious policies of the administration.

Autumnal splendor – Women leaving the workplace – Donald Trump’s methods of wooing voters – Trump admitting to the possibility of losing – Savannah Guthrie victrix – Evening statistics

Another lovely day, autumn scenery at its finest.   Everything looked serene today, the mellow October sunlight highlighting the rich assortment of colors from the leaves of maples, sycamores, elms, cherry trees, pear trees, hickories, oaks, birches, beeches – to name some of the bewildering variety of trees in the eastern American forest region, one of the most bio-diverse areas on the planet.  I am reminded of the passage in The Handmaid’s Tale when Offred, languishing in a state of semi-slavery, glances outside at night and notices the new moon:  “a wishing moon, a sliver of ancient rock, a goddess, a wink.  The moon is a stone and the sky is full of deadly hardware, but oh God, how beautiful anyway. “  And so I felt today.  Our country is undergoing continual trial and trouble from the pandemic, the levels of racial tension seem to have reached unprecedented heights, the election threatens to be one of the most violent in our history – but how beautiful it was outside anyway.

Margaret Atwood’s book seems unhappily appropriate at the moment, because one of the effects of the COVID virus has been the reduction of women in the workforce in unprecedented numbers.  With hundreds of thousands of students being forced to obtain their schooling at home and numerous daycare centers going out of business, someone has to supervise the children during the day and that someone is usually the mother of the family.  Sometimes it is possible for a parent to conduct work online, but only about a third of our occupations can be pursued that way.  The others (healthcare, education, factory work, truck driving, cleaning services, utility services, among others) require the worker’s physical presence.  About 865,000 women have dropped out of the workforce, in contrast to 216,000 men.  It’s not only women who will be worse off for this development.  There is a strong correlation between companies hiring women executives and their profitability, resulting in 18% – 69% boosts for the Fortune 500 firms with the best records of promoting women.  It is going to take a long time for our economy to rebound, even after the virus is brought under control. 

Donald Trump certainly has an unusual approach towards attempts at winning people over to him.  When asked whether suburban women no longer liked him, he responded that they should like him because he’s in favor of law and order, and he reinforced this remark as follows:  “So can I ask you to do me a favor? Suburban women, will you please like me?  I saved your damn neighborhood.”  For some inscrutable reason, the suburban women here seem for the most part unmoved by such an appeal.  Perhaps they are more amenable to these tender persuasions in some other neighborhood.

It does appear that he is at last realizing that losing the election is a possibility.  “Could you imagine if I lose?” Trump said Friday evening at a campaign rally in Macon, GA. “My whole life, what am I going to do? I’m going to say, ‘I lost to the worst candidate in the history of politics.’ I’m not going to feel so good. Maybe I’ll have to leave the country. I don’t know.”  If it is any consolation to him, many believe that the distinction of being the worst candidate in the history of politics belongs to him rather than to his opponent.  As far as his leaving the country is concerned, there are two stumbling blocks to this dire threat:  first, he would be hard-pressed to find another country that would accept him (perhaps his buddy Vladimir Putin would take him in?) and second, that he may be somewhat restricted in his movements if he receives a jail sentence after the election for his financial defalcations. 

The NBC network is expressing profound gratitude towards Savannah Guthrie, the moderator of Trump’s town hall yesterday.  Previously NBC was accused, when it agreed to televise his town hall, of rewarding Trump for rejecting the debate commission’s plan to conduct the second debate virtually.  Whatever else might be said about the town hall, presenting Trump with the opportunity to confront Guthrie cannot possibly be described as a “reward.”  The Vox website, among others, said her quick line of questioning, pushbacks, and fact checks “probably made the White House wish they had just done the debate.”

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 39,937,065; # of deaths worldwide: 1,114,183; # of cases U.S.: 8,341,836; # of deaths U.S.: 224,278.  Towards the end of March Dr. Fauci predicted that our country would have between 100,000 and 200,000 deaths as a result of the COVID virus.  In retrospect this forecast seems touchingly modest.  We almost certainly will reach over 300,000 by the end of the year, and to a large extent this is due to the willfully oblivious policies of the administration.

Trump and Biden interviewed by AARP – The town halls for Biden and Trump – Evening statistics

I was out much of yesterday, enjoying the fine weather, and did not return home until fairly late.  Little of interest was to be found in the news and it did not appear worthwhile to compose a journal entry for the day.  Either that, or maybe I simply was too tired to write one after walking 20 miles.

This morning I read the latest issue of the AARP magazine, which included interviews with both presidential candidates.  The AARP editor noted that they each responded eagerly to the opportunity to be interviewed and that they treated the interviewers with great respect.  In all fairness Trump did not show to disadvantage in this setting.  He was able to sound fairly reasonable and balanced, at any rate in print.  On the subject of Social Security, for example; he denied that his plan to eliminate the payroll tax would deplete the funds for the program and he outlined methods in which Social Security would still be funded.  The actuaries disagree with him on this point, but that’s a detail.

I mention this, not because, as should be apparent, I wish Trump to succeed, but because I have several friends, ardent partisans of Biden, who continually exclaim about his opponent, “How can anyone vote for a man like this?”  And I’m afraid that when they do so, they are being naïve.  If anyone were to read the AARP interview without listening to him in person and was in ignorance of the headlines that occurred during his administration, he might conclude that Trump is in control of the national situation and is making far-sighted plans for ensuring the comfort and security of the nation’s senior citizens.  Donald Trump can sound plausible when he chooses.  There is nothing surprising in even quite intelligent people being duped by a clever fraud; and Trump can be clever on occasion, though he certainly is very unwise. 

Then, too, however one might feel about his style of delivery on the podium (which to me is about as alluring as a bedizened, obese drag queen), he does project an aura of confidence that Biden does not.  In watching Biden’s town hall last night my impressions of the former vice-president acquired over the past several months were reinforced:  he is earnest, well-intentioned, invariably courteous towards anyone who converses with him, devoid of the bombast that characterizes his opponent; but he is also long-winded and circuitous in his answers, and – as is the case with both of the vice-presidential candidates – he seems incapable of delivering an unequivocal “Yes” or “No.”   One can hardly fault him for not wishing to give hasty, ill-considered responses to the questions posed by the participants, but one wishes that he could speak more forcibly once in a while.  He did speak quite well about Trump’s inadequacies in handling the virus, it is true (not a difficult task), but he hedged on the issue of packing the Supreme Court and I doubt if his response to the question about his by-now notorious remark about African-Americans not supporting him being “ain’t black” brought much reassurance to black voters.

By all accounts, though, he did much better than Trump did when the latter had the effrontery to set up a hastily-arranged town hall meeting of his own at exactly the same time as Biden’s after he called off the second Presidential debate in panic at the prospect at going virtual.  It would appear that Savannah Guthrie, the moderator, was intent on getting a direct answer to the questions she was directed to ask and, to that end, pressed Trump on certain matters in a style to which he is not generally accustomed.  According to the transcripts, she managed to extort from him an admission that he is in debt to the tune over $421,000,000 to his creditors and that he supported a claim (quite baseless, needless to say) by QAnon that Biden arranged to have a Navy Seal team killed.  When he tried to backtrack on this latter issue, the following exchange ensued:

Trump:  That was a retweet!  People can judge for themselves!

Guthrie: “I don’t get that. You’re the president, not someone’s crazy uncle.”

As one might easily predict, Mary Trump was swift to post a tweet of her own shortly afterwards, suggesting that Guthrie could be mistaken on this last point.

If the intellectual level of Trump’s town hall was consistent throughout with this exchange, as I suspect it was, I think that I did well to watch the Biden town hall instead.

In recent weeks Trump has made several blunders like this ill-judged last-minute town hall, some of them so egregious as to lead a few acquaintances of mine to speculate whether he desires to lose the election in reality.  I have heard such a theory in the past, but I believe it to be the result of wishful thinking.  A criminal prosecution almost certainly awaits Trump the moment he ceases to be President, and he will cling onto the position as long as he is capable of doing so.  But such maneuvers on his part make me somewhat more hopeful about the results of the upcoming election.  I believe his flailing about in this manner is a sign that he is becoming more and more despondent about his chances of winning, and that our nation will be free of this incubus at long last.  It is now 18 days to the day of the election (actually 17 days, 13 hours, 3 minutes, and 37 seconds as of writing this sentence to the closing of the last polls in Hawaii; but who’s counting?) and there is not a single poll that shows Trump to be in the lead anywhere in the country.

Yesterday’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 39,150,748; # of deaths worldwide: 1,102,404; # of cases U.S.: 8,214,803; # of deaths U.S.: 222,698.  

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 39,544,938; # of deaths worldwide: 1,108,175; # of cases U.S.: 8,285,824; # of deaths U.S.: 223,612.   Our case count is showing an upward trend again; today’s increase was nearly 70,000.  But the COVID virus is increasing generally, and in Europe in particular; at this point we account for 20% of the deaths from the virus and 30% of the active cases – very greatly out of proportion to our population count, but still somewhat less so that these were a month earlier.

Some American politicians – Trump turns upon Barr – Celebrating a convalescence – Evening statistics

Although the news about the election remains comparatively restrained over the past few days, the activities of various politicians from municipal and judicial branches are not without interest.  Witness the following:

Ethan Berkowitz, the mayor of Anchorage, Alaska, resigned his position after he attempted to break off an illicit relationship with Maria Athens, the anchor at a Fox/ABC combined station in that city.  Ms. Athens took her revenge in a fairly dramatic fashion when he tried to terminate their relationship:  she publicly threatened to report that he had posted nude photos of himself on a website directed at an under-age audience.  Although he vehemently denied her allegations, he resigned a mere four days afterwards. 

In Buffalo, NY, Maria Grisanti was arrested following a dispute with her neighbors in which her shouts and threats were heard the length of the street.  Her husband, Mark Grisanti, came running up to the altercation, shirtless, as the police handcuffed her, shoving one of the officers and violently demanding leniency because he is on intimate terms with the mayor and has a daughter and son-in-law in the police force.  His abusive behavior towards the police resulted in his being handcuffed as well.  Such a display would appear to be typical behavior of a member of what is commonly called “trailer trash.”  But it is not.  Mark Grisanti is a justice of the New York State Supreme Court.

These two stories have their comic aspect but the story concerning South Dakota’s Attorney General Jason Ravnsborg is anything but laughable.  He struck and killed a pedestrian while driving in the middle of the night of September 12^th.  When he realized that he had been in a collision, he called the 911 dispatcher, leading to the following dialog:

Caller: It sure hit me . . .smashed my windshield…

Dispatcher: Oh no. Okay, do you think it was a deer or something?

Caller: I have no idea…

Dispatcher: Okay…

Caller: Yeah . . . It could be . . . I mean…it was right in the roadway . . .

When it was discovered that the “deer” was in reality one Joseph Boever, who died from his injuries, an investigation was duly launched.  This revelation, incidentally, did not occur immediately after the crash but on the following morning, which meant that Boever’s body was lying beside the road for hours.  So far, the investigators are not inspiring much confidence.  Boever’s relatives have questioned how Ravnsborg could have mistaken a man for a deer, especially in a state where collisions with deer are a common hazard of driving on rural highways.  Ravnsborg was tested for alcohol – some fifteen hours after the event, at which point anyone who had been drinking,, even heavily, would not have any detectable alcohol in his system.  In all fairness it must be said that Ravnsborg’s voice was not slurred in the exchange with the dispatcher.  Kristi Noem, the state governor, has promised a transparent investigation; but she has refused to pressure Ravnsborg to take a leave of absence while the investigation is pending.. Boever’s family have expressed displeasure at the extremely slow pace of the investigation; a month has elapsed since the crash and no report has been issued.  In the words of Boever’s cousin Victor Nemec, “I believe this state is going to try to cover this up as much as possible.”

I have mentioned, in an earlier entry, how Jacinda Ardern, Prime Minister of New Zealand, waited patiently at a restaurant amid other patrons waiting for tables to become available and how she declined to receive priority above any of them.  In the same vein, Angela Merkel, of Germany, when asked by a reporter how it happened that she was wearing the same dress that she had donned for an interview with him twelve years earlier, replied that when she ran for office she had done so with the idea of being of service to her countrymen, rather than that of becoming a fashion model.  She also does her own grocery shopping and does not disdain to attend to various household chores.  But the aggressively egalitarian politicians – egalitarian in word, at least – of our happy democratic land have no patience with such antiquated notions from the effete nations of the Old World; the moment they obtain office they look upon themselves as uncrowned kings and would blush at the notion of being subject to the same laws that mere commoners are expected to obey.  Rvansborg, for instance, appears to feel not a twinge of guilt for the man he has killed; he has expressed no remorse, has not taken any leave of office during the investigation, has sent no condolences to the man’s family, and, from the way he described the accident to the emergency 911 team, seems to feel that the entire matter was Joseph Boever’s fault for having gotten in the way of his car.  How could Donald Trump, or anyone in his place for that matter, fail to renege on his taxes?  It would seem that cheating on an extensive scale and snubbing the law are virtual pre-requisites for the position.

Few, admittedly, are as blatant about it as he.  Trump has now announced that he is “not happy” with Attorney General Barr and has hinted that Barr will not serve a second term in that position.  And for what reason?  A very simple one:  Barr has not been able to provide him the support for his allegations of illegality by his political opponents, and time is running out for Trump to fling a spanner into the works of the upcoming election.  The investigation conducted by John Bash, a federal prosecutor handpicked by Barr, to determine whether Obama administration officials had mishandled classified intelligence relating to the Russia concluded that it was all a mare’s nest.  Similarly, John Durham has obstinately stood his ground and has refused to be pressured into delivering before November 3^rd a report that might have given Trump the opportunity to see Biden indicted.  (The operative word in that last sentence is “might”; it is quite possible that Durham will conclude that Biden is not guilty of anything in particular.)  Barr seems likely to follow the fate of so many who have associated with our President:  having abased himself and degraded his office in order to obtain Trump’s favors, he is to be discarded like the rind of an orange after it has been squeezed for its juice.  Why anyone consents to enter the employment of that man – I refer to Trump, of course – remains a mystery.  Surely by this time it must be common knowledge that the net result will be betrayal and abuse. 

I turn with relief from the miry slough of our political scene to something a great deal more pleasant.  Several members of the Vigorous Hikers visited BL today, who has had a difficult struggle over the past several months but who is now recovering very thoroughly, thanks to his powers of resilience.  From his appearance, indeed, I never would have guessed that he had been so ill.  His voice is firm and resonant, his eyes bright, his bearing upright.  He is no longer on dialysis, his chemo treatments have ended, and his hemoglobin count is returning to normal levels. We sat outside on his lawn (well apart from each other, of course) and snacked together and conversed about various matters, including the hikes planned under club auspices for November and December, and also possible hiking trips by sub-groups of various members for the coming year.  It was a lovely afternoon, warm and clear, as we sat on chairs upon a grassplot amid trees with sunlight slanting through their multi-colored leaves.  It is easy to forget, relying on the headlines and social media alone, that placid scenes of companionship like these are still possible amid the turmoil that is continually being reported. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 38,723,557; # of deaths worldwide: 1,096,187; # of cases U.S.: 8,147,358; # of deaths U.S.: 221,807.   While the numbers in the U.S. are not declining, Europe is not doing well either.  The COVID virus is regaining traction there, and in Italy in particular.  Today its case count increased by over 7,300, a record for new infections in a single day.  The total number of new infections for all of Europe is nearly 140,000. 

Activity along the Potomac Heritage Trail – The progressing change in leaf color – George Mason University – Possibility of a Biden landslide – Increasing signs of desperation in Trump’s campaign – Evening statistics

The Potomac Heritage Trail Association held a Zoom meeting today, which I attended.  It was heartening to hear that work on the PHT and on other trails in Fairfax, Arlington, Prince William, and Loudoun counties is being pursued, despite the restrictions imposed by the virus.  We discussed many areas of the trail that need attention, and in particular the segment of the PHT that runs between the Scott Nature Preserve and the junction with the Pimmit Run Trail.  The PHT runs parallel with the Potomac River there, and the river has several creeks draining into it, which sometimes form gorges of significant depth and which in any case have to be crossed.  Since I had completed the McLean loop just a couple of months ago, I was able to supply input about some of the more difficult of these:  Scott Run and Pimmit Run in particular.  Both of these had had rocks set in the streambed to aid people crossing on foot, but recent floods have swept the rocks away and it is now all but impossible to cross these dryshod.  We plan to go on a fact-finding hike in the near future; the date at this point has not yet been set.

After the meeting I went out to enjoy the day.  The dreary weather has passed and the skies are clear again, thereby allowing the foliage to be displayed in full glory.  The leaves are swiftly changing color now, and several of the Japanese maples are beginning to show their characteristic shade between red and orange.  The change in color is occurring somewhat later in the year than usual, on account of the length of this past summer, but now that we have been having a succession of warm days and cool nights, the leaf colors are not dulled, as at one point I feared they would be.  We should be reaching peak coloration in a couple of weeks.

During my walk I visited the George Mason University campus, which is not far from where I live.  It felt strangely deserted.  Normally the campus is swarming with pedestrians, but now many of the classes are being held virtually and the number of students who are physically present has dwindled considerably.  Even though in theory I applaud the decision to ensure the safety of students and teachers alike, the absence of people upon the usually bustling campus had a somewhat depressing effect.

There is not much to report about the upcoming election apart from the usual rhetoric on both sides; but the possibility of a Biden landslide is quietly emerging.  Even in the rural areas that I have recently visited in both Maine and southwestern Virginia I noticed the occasional signs posted for the Biden-Harris slate.  According to the polls, Biden is leading in most of the swing states:  7 points ahead in both Michigan and Pennsylvania, 4 points in Florida, 10 points in Wisconsin, and 8 points in Michigan.  Biden is trying to reinforce that lead by making vigorous attempts to woo the senior citizens; and since Trump declared his intention to raid the Social Security funds not too long ago, this strategy appears promising. 

Nonetheless the Democrats in general are displaying much less complacency than they did under similar circumstances four years ago – quite properly.  Donald Trump is now a desperate man, and desperate man require close monitoring.  He has just filed an emergency request with the Supreme Court to block the release of his tax returns, following a federal appeals court decision issued last week that Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus Vance can enforce a subpoena for his business and tax records.  He claimed before the 2016 election that he would release these returns, but has never done so; it has since been revealed that he paid a bare $750 in taxes during 2016 and 2017.  In short, little beyond his current position in power stands in the way of a criminal prosecution followed by a long, stiff jail sentence.  What maneuvers he will attempt between now and November 3^rd is anyone’s guess; but a wounded boar is among the most dangerous of animals and it is not to be supposed that he will do less than his utmost to disrupt the election, either by fair means or foul.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 38,347,804; # of deaths worldwide: 1,090,179; # of cases U.S.: 8,089,929; # of deaths U.S.: 220,827.  As noted earlier, our case incidence rate is nearly 2.5%, just under 1 in 40 for our population.  The worldwide case incidence rate is just under 0.5%, or about 1 in 200 for the global population.  The average American is thus five times as likely to contract the virus as the average inhabitant worldwide.

Apprehensions among the Democrats – Trump’s support among populist leaders – A day of relative calm – Evening statistics

Despite Biden’s lead in the polls, the Democrats are jittery about the election.  The defeat of Hillary Clinton in 2016 has left not a few psychic scars:  Hillary Clinton was also well ahead of her rival in the polls at this time before the election (by a smaller margin, it is true, but still a substantial one), and she and most of her supporters assumed that she would have no difficulty in defeating him.  For my part, I’d rather find the Democrats overly nervous rather than overly complacent.  My attitude is similar to that of Neera Tanden, president of the Center for American Progress, a liberal think-tank, who says that Trump being re-elected would be a “cataclysmic disaster,” in which sentiment I thoroughly concur. In four short years he has brought down our level of national government to that of a Latin-American country with a caudillo at its head – the only difference being that Trump, who in his youth obtained a draft deferment on account of bone spurs, has no pretensions whatever to military prowess.

“If I told you there was just a 25% chance your house would be bombed tomorrow,” Tanden added, “that wouldn’t be reassuring to you.”

Various national leaders who are dignified with the adjective “populist” – which does not, however, mean even for a moment that they are popular among their countrymen – are, on the other hand, worried about the prospect of Trump being defeated.  Isn’t it reassuring to know that Trump’s administration provides so much sympathy and support to worthies such as Matteo Salvini (Italy), Narendra Modi (India), Viktor Orban (Hungary), and of course everyone’s favorite commissar, Vladimir Putin?

Other than that, today was similar to yesterday:  not very eventful, and not a great deal that was newsworthy.  But the weather has moderated a bit, drizzling more than raining and the skies were somewhat less gloomy to look at – pale and blanched, indeed, but that is preferable to the dark, dingy color of the clouds on the preceding day.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 38,028,430; # of deaths worldwide: 1,085,091; # of cases U.S.: 8,037,193; # of deaths U.S.: 220,010.  We have surpassed the 8,000,000 milestone in our case count today.  It took a mere three weeks for our case count to increase by 1,000,000. 

A day without incident – Speculation about duration of the COVID virus – The saga of Brazil continues – Evening statistics

After the almost perfect weather of the preceding week, today was quite dreary and tomorrow promises to be more of the same – not merely raining, but so overcast that the sky was barely illuminated at all.  The headlines, such as they were, did not report much that is new and altogether it was a fairly uneventful day. 

“This blog of yours might turn out to be a life-time project,” RK remarked to me during our conservation a few days earlier.  I hope that she is not right, but it does seem that I’ve been overly optimistic in entitling my blog the Journal of the Plague Year.  Some epidemics have indeed lasted for about a year:  the Great Plague of London, the Great Plague of Vienna, the Manchurian Plague, the Asian flu epidemic, and so on.  Others have taken longer to run their course, sometimes much longer – the Black Death pandemic, for instance, which lasted for seven years.   It seems likely that the COVID virus will be expanding for some months to come at the very least.  We have completed our season of warm weather; the more comfortable temperatures we are now enjoying will in a few weeks be followed by colder days; and the virus flourishes in colder temperatures and in interior settings, where most of the people will be spending the majority of their time in winter and early spring.  The figure of 2.5% of the population that I mentioned earlier certainly represents an extensive amount of damage, but it falls far short of conferring herd immunity.

Oddly enough, the rate of infection appears to be slowing down in Brazil, where most of the people are no longer observing the rules of social distancing.  Experts fear that it will undergo its second wave of virus infections before the first is under control, but for the moment the majority of the Brazilians seem to be as insouciant in their attitude towards COVID as Jair Bolsonaro himself – whose popularity, incidentally, has reached record approval levels. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 37,732,511; # of deaths worldwide: 1,081,146; # of cases U.S.: 7,991,069; # of deaths U.S.: 219,695.