This year compared to the last one – First Day hikes – Slight disappointment from the hiking log – The diminishing COVID mortality rate
The old year wanes, and while it might not have been the best of all possible years, it certainly was better than its predecessor. Flawed though Biden’s administration undeniably has been, it was a welcome change from the perpetual Sturm und Drang that characterized our 45th president’s relationships with his staff and with his compatriots in general; and while COVID remains a threat and a disruption, it is on a much more limited scale than that of 2021. It appears, moreover, that Trump’s influence is diminishing at long last, after the greatly anticipated “red wave” proved illusory and various political leaders belatedly realized that his continued association with the Republican Party played a significant role in this result.
Hiking has seen something of an upsurge during the pandemic. Plans are being made in every state for making “First Day Hikes” (free, guided hikes on January 1st) available at various locations. I myself will be taking part in a hike tomorrow, albeit not a guided one: merely a visit to Riverbend Park with various friends. Today also I went with the Wanderbirds to Jug Bay for a gentle, fairly flat hike of 8 miles. I was the sweep on this occasion and that was perhaps just as well: one of the hikers in the group had issues with going down a couple of the steeper descents, so I aided her by having her to walk behind me with her hands placed on my shoulders to give her support.
Alas, I fell just short of 2000 miles this year on the trails. I probably would have done more had it not been for the two storms in December, when hiking was not practicable during the days of unrelenting rain. Still I did complete 1958 miles for the year, as well as nearly 280,000 feet of cumulative elevation gain, and that at any rate is a respectable amount.
Normally the week between Christmas and New Year’s is fairly quiet, but this time it has been unexpectedly busy for me, with a birthday party for a friend in downtown DC this past Thursday and another party for this evening. In an effort to encourage those who celebrate the occasions at functions where the bottle is passed around fairly frequently not to use the roads afterwards, Washington DC is offering free Metro rides for people traveling after 8:00 PM. I will be in position to test how many take advantage of this arrangement, for I myself will be going downtown tonight, and – my sense of self-preservation being tolerably strong – I have no intention of driving the city streets during New Year’s Eve.
More than 100 million people in the U.S. have tested positive for COVID-19 and more than 1 million have died from it. But at this point nearly 229 million have been vaccinated, and the mortality rate has gone down precipitously in consequence. The cumulative mortality rate is currently about 1.1% in the U.S. However, over the past month the ratio of deaths to new cases is about 0.6%. In other words, the mortality rate is approaching containable levels, possibly to the extent of the state of emergency being rescinded by the CDC sometime after the winter season ends. COVID’s mortality rate still remains about three times as great as the influenza mortality rate, but that is a great improvement over what we endured in 2021.
And so, as we approach 2023, all is not quite rose color; but hopes are running high.
Today’s statistics as of 3:30 PM – # of cases worldwide: 664,738,010; # of deaths worldwide: 6,696,792; # of cases U.S.: 102,510,478; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,117,956.