Hiking on the Appalachian Trail in the snow – The vaccination situation in Virginia – The new Janssen vaccine – Vote against the relief package – Long-term strategy of the Republicans – Evening statistics
I believe that this season has seen more use of my micro-spikes than any previous one. Today I met with ten other Wanderbirds members to hike along the Appalachian Trail from Rte. 55 to the junction with the Trico Tower Trail and take a mile-long loop along that trail and a fire road before returning back: about 10 miles in all and 2000 feet of elevation gain. The length of the distance, however, should be calculated in what one member called “dog miles”: after I completed the route I felt as tired as if I had gone 15 miles instead of 10. At the beginning of the hike the snow on the ground had melted entirely, but as one went further up the residual snow became deeper and deeper. Even slight ascents became arduous under such conditions. The weather turned out better than expected, raining very little (just drizzle, in fact) during the first hour and clearing throughout the day, with sunshine in the afternoon.
As always, we took the opportunity to keep one another up-to-date with our current status in various matters. I had conversations with several about vaccines, an increasing source of interest for most of us. One in particular stands out for me. LH and I are supposed to be on a trip organized by LM in June to hike in King’s Canyon and Sequoia. I told her about my current situation: that I had registered to be vaccinated on January 22nd and that Fairfax County is still vaccinating only up to those who have registered on January 18th – a state of affairs that has lasted for three weeks. It is true that fewer people registered on the intervening days; but even if everyone who registered on January 18th were vaccinated tomorrow, there would be at least 35,000 people who registered before I did. I cannot see getting vaccinated any time before April. LH, who is not in either the 1A or 1B category, is worried whether she can get vaccinated by the time of the trip. It is a legitimate concern: Virginia remains one of the least effective states in distributing the vaccine to its residents.
There is, possibly, a mitigating factor. A new COVID vaccine has been approved by the FDA. The Janssen vaccine (manufactured by Jouhnson and Johnson) requires only a single dose and is easier to store than either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines. It is rated as 85% effective at preventing severe illness and 100% effective at preventing hospitalizations and deaths 28 days after individuals are vaccinated. The new vaccine was tested in countries known to have potentially more dangerous variants, including Brazil and South Africa. The data found the vaccine worked against all variants at preventing severe disease. Not all of the findings are rosy: there is not sufficient data to determine frequency of allergic reactions and it is not clear how long that the immunization it confers will last (this last caveat applies to the other vaccines as well). But at any rate it should aid in the distribution of vaccinations. Shipment of 3.9 million doses could begin as early as Monday, with about 800,000 of that expected to go directly to pharmacies.
The Republicans in the House have voted against the pandemic relief package that would send $1,400 checks to most Americans and hundreds of billions more to help open schools, revive struggling businesses, and provide financial support to state and local governments. It is difficult to understand what they expect to gain by this maneuver. They no longer hold a majority in either chamber and they must be aware that they cannot hope to pass or defeat any bill unaided by at least a handful of Democrats rallying to their side. They must know, also, that such a vote will make them extremely unpopular. There are even a significant number of prominent Republicans outside of the legislative branch who favor the bill: for example, Oklahoma City Mayor David Holt, who along with 31 other Republican mayors wrote a letter urging leaders in both parties to approve the package. The pandemic has necessitated cuts to the city’s fire and police departments, which is crippling civic services. And of course the average worker, whether Republican or Democrat, is likely to resent any factor that stands in the way of some much-needed relief from the tolls that the pandemic and its attendant restrictions have taken from him. It is somewhat curious watching a political party commit suicide.
The explanation given is that an analogous situation occurred in 2009, when Republicans voted against the massive stimulus package designed to protect millions of Americans from financial ruin. After (from the Republican point of view) a disastrous election in 2008, this step actually marked the beginning of their return to power. Their arguments that the stimulus package cost too much and accomplished too little fueled a significant part of their success in the 2010 elections. Evidently they are hoping for history to repeat itself, especially as Biden (who was Vice President at the time) played a major role in the 2009 stimulus package. But the analogy is a dubious one. The principal causes of the 2008 economic crisis, which the 2009 stimulus package was designed to correct, were risk-taking by banks and the bursting of the national housing bubble: factors that were easy to identify and that could be addressed in a relatively short time. The cause of our current economic troubles is the cumulative restrictions imposed by the virus, making it impossible for businesses that depend on physical contact between providers and customers – food stores, restaurants, bars, private schools, gyms, spas, transportation, travel services, etc. – to operate in the same manner that they used before the pandemic began. In all probability some of the modifications imposed by the virus will be long-lasting and several businesses will fall by the wayside as a result. The adjustment period to these new conditions may last for several months, possibly well beyond the period of campaigning for the 2022 elections. If that is the case, this vote cast by the Republican Representatives (and by the Republican Senators, who are expected to follow suit) will be held against them.
Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 114,365,469; # of deaths worldwide: 2,536,697; # of cases U.S.: 29,202,824; # of deaths; U.S.: 524,669.