Murmurings of transition from pandemic to endemic abroad – The current COVID situation in the U.S. – Possible beginning of a baby boom – Giuliani’s fortunes decline – Jude the Obscure – Evening statistics
At least three nations have announced their intentions of treating COVID as endemic, i.e., as a disease regularly recurring and exacting a certain toll periodically, but – as with such diseases as influenza and pneumonia – no longer entailing special preventative measures outside of vaccination. These three are Spain, Portugal, and the U.K. France is also loosening restrictions, albeit to a lesser degree. Stadiums and sports arenas will re-open on February 2nd and drinking and eating will be allowed in stadiums, cinemas and public transport and while standing at bars as of February 16th.
In Spain this step is understandable. It has one of the highest vaccination rates in the world (81% of the population fully vaccinated, of whom nearly half have received boosters as well). It has undergone severe restrictions up to this point. Its populace was ordered to stay home for more than three months. For weeks, they were not allowed outside even for exercise. Children were banned from playgrounds, and the economy virtually stopped. No wonder that the country is eager to move on to a less restrictive phase. Portugal’s vaccination rate is still higher: 89% of the population fully vaccinated. The only other nations with higher vaccination rates are the UAE and Brunei. France, similarly, also has a high vaccination rate (more than 90% of adults fully vaccinated) and has already implemented the use of a “vaccine pass” to access restaurants, cultural events and most public transportation.
The U.K., however, is a different matter. Its vaccination rate is lower than that of Austria, where unvaccinated people will soon be fined. Officially, the percentage of the British population that has developed antibodies against COVID-19 either from infection or vaccination is 95%, but it is difficult to be certain about the number who have become immune from infection. There are, after all, many instances of people becoming infected with COVID more than once. Currently the number of active cases is over 3½ million, about 5% of its population. It is true, however, that the number of severe cases has been declining; currently this number is well under 1,000.
It will take some time for the U.S. to consider such a transition. Anti-vaxxers have been allowed to run rampant in this country as in no other, and the results can be seen for themselves. Currently we account for over 40% of active cases and over 27% of severe cases worldwide. (And, it bears repeating, we account for only 4% of the world’s population.) About 7.7% of Americans are currently infected with COVID, about 1 in 13. Nearly 9 million workers have called out sick on account COVID during the first two weeks of 2022, a new record, and an extremely unenviable one.
Our more likely model will during the next several weeks could easily be Germany, where less than 73% of the population has received two doses and infection rates are hitting new records almost daily. It continues the restrictions posted as of December 21st: no gatherings of over 10 people, all of whom must be vaccinated or recovered; no entry to most public places for those who are neither vaccinated nor recovered; all clubs and discos closed; only vaccinated, recovered, or tested people allowed to enter their work offices or to take public transit. “We still have too many unvaccinated people, particularly among our older citizens,” Health Ministry spokesman Andreas Deffner said on January 17th.
However, not all of the news here is dreary. The omicron variant may already be peaking in certain regions, such as the Northeast states. And it appears that the birth rate, which has been declining steadily for several years and which has fallen precipitously since the onset of the pandemic, may receive a boost from a baby boom this year. Pregnancy test sales have increased by 13% since the end of 2020, members of the millennial generation are getting older and achieving financial security, and would-be parents who delayed conception at the onset of the pandemic are starting to feel more confident that it will be waning soon. In fact, the birth rate has already begun to rise: it increased by 3% this past June.
In other encouraging developments, Igor Fruman, an associate of Rudy Giuliani ‘s, has been sentenced to a year and a day in prison for helping to funnel foreign money to the campaigns of Republican officials. Lev Parnas, another Giuliani associate, has already been found in guilty in October of participating in similar schemes and is currently awaiting sentencing. All of which is satisfactory as far as it goes, but how long will it take our legal system to overtake Giuliani himself? He has undergone one small loss already: his honorary degree from the University of Rhode Island has been revoked. Perhaps this is an augury of greater things to come.
The weather has not been especially cheering for much of this week and as a result I have been indoors more than usual. Among other activities to divert myself I have re-read Thomas Hardy’s Jude the Obscure, whose critical reception was so hostile that Hardy in response ceased novel-writing altogether and which has since been acclaimed by many as his masterpiece. I’m afraid that Hardy’s contemporaneous critics were right. Quite simply, it is not a good novel. Perhaps in a later entry I will attempt to sort out my reaction to it in a more organized form; for now, suffice it to say that the novel is very clumsily constructed, its dialogue is so wooden as to cause the reader to wonder whether the speakers are marionettes instead of living, breathing people, and Sue Bridehead, the heroine, Is one of the most repellent young women in the entirety of British fiction. She is even worse than Angel Clare, the main male character of Tess of the d’Urbervilles – in which statement I realize that I am making a very large claim indeed, but I stand by it nonetheless.
Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 346,636,318; # of deaths worldwide: 5,602,769; # of cases U.S.: 71,317,077; # of deaths; U.S.: 887,561.