Hiking in the Harpers Ferry area, then and now – Indicators of the “endgame” of the pandemic – Evening statistics
I went with the Vigorous Hikers on a hike in the Harpers Ferry area that begins at Schoolhouse Ridge , goes through Harpers Ferry to Maryland Heights (via a back route From Sandy Hook Rd.) and the Stone Fort, then back through Harpers Ferry along the Appalachian Trail. We continued along the Lower Town Trail to the Harpers Ferry Visitor Center and back over Bolivar Heights to the parking area. This hike was notable for the number of times we switched from wearing microspikes to going without them and then wearing them again. Microspikes were advisable for many portions of the hike, particularly along the trail that descends from the Stone Fort. But there were also parts that involved walking on asphalt or stone slabs, where they were a hindrance. It was in the mid-to-high 30s today, and yet it felt colder than Sunday, especially in the afternoon, when a wind was blowing steadily.
The hike brought back memories of when the group went on it nearly two years ago, in late March, 2020. It was then the restrictions imposed by the pandemic were made unmistakably apparent. The trailhead is in West Virginia, and the hike took place at the time that various states were issuing warnings and prohibitions against inter-state travel. Since most of us were coming from either Maryland or Virginia, this condition aroused some concern: did traveling to the parking area fall under the ban? Various emails were sent about the subject among the club members, and in the end it was decided that local travel of this nature would not be penalized – an assumption that proved to be correct. Nonetheless, the uncertainty we felt on this point was an ominous sign of what the future was to bring.
There were no such apprehensions today as we meandered through the environs of that delightful city; and – what made the hike better still – we had the trails to ourselves. We saw hardly anyone else that day, even when we passed along the streets. We lunched at Maryland Heights, and it was the first time that I had seen it under such conditions, that is, without anyone outside of our own group. The combination of the unpromising weather and the ice that remained on the trails, probably, discouraged many from attempting the ascent, and as a result we could enjoy the bird’s-eye view of the city and of the confluence of the Potomac and Shenandoah Rivers without being distracted by the chatter of other onlookers.
In general, the mood of the group was optimistic, reflecting the opinion of various experts that we are now entering the “endgame” of the pandemic. There is a way to go, undoubtedly. We have not reached the peak of the omicron variant yet. Well over 2,000 Americans died from the virus today. There will probably be other variants to come. Indeed, a new one, dubbed the “stealth omicron” variant, has emerged and is being monitored by various health organizations. At present, however, the CDC says that it “remains a very low proportion of circulating viruses in the United States and globally.”
Nonetheless the average length of hospitalizations among COVID patients currently is shorter (31% shorter than those who were hospitalized in the previous winter and 27% shorter than those who were hospitalized from the delta variant), the percentage of COVID patients who have to be admitted to intensive care is down, and the percentage of those infected requiring hospital treatment is likewise declining. In a new commentary published in The Lancet, Christopher Murray, M.D., of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington in Seattle, estimated that 50 percent of the world would be infected by omicron by the end of March, which will change the way countries manage the virus. “After the omicron wave, COVID-19 will return, but the pandemic will not,” he wrote. “The era of extraordinary measures by government and societies to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission will be over.”
Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 358,940,558; # of deaths worldwide: 5,633,158; # of cases U.S.: 73,389,334; # of deaths; U.S.: 894,655.