COVID’s fourth wave – Mask mandates begin to re-appear – Evening statistics
We have entered our fourth wave of the pandemic, according to the CDC. Cases of the virus have doubled in the past two weeks. The experience of the U.K., which has had a similar rate of vaccination, suggests that while infection rates will rise, hospitalizations and deaths will be considerably lower than those of the previous waves, since the vaccines have proven to be quite effective in containing the disease among the relatively small number who contract it even after the vaccines have been administered. But the wave will target the unvaccinated, including children, and if infection rates are high enough, also the most vulnerable of the vaccinated – the elderly and the immunocompromised.
What is maddening about this wave is that it was entirely preventable. Had vaccinations been administered at the rate they were being taken in April, probably more than 80% of adults would have been vaccinated by now. The issue is not lack of vaccines – we have an amount on hand sufficient to vaccinate nearly everyone at this point – but the refusal of people to take them. I do not know how Trump’s partisans are able to claim that the credit for introducing vaccines to the U.S. belongs to Trump and all the while strive their utmost to dissuade people from taking the vaccines; but the fact remains that they do, with an obsessiveness that borders on insanity. Well over 99% of the hospitalizations consist of the unvaccinated. Dr. Luis Ostrosky, chief of infectious diseases at UTHealth and an infectious disease specialist at Memorial Hermann-Texas Medical Center in Houston, said that “We’re going to be living in two pandemic worlds, the world that’s vaccinated and the world that’s unvaccinated.” Ostrosky added that all of his own COVID patients are unvaccinated and all of them regret not having taking the shots when they had the opportunity. But there is little use in shutting the barn door once the horse has bolted.
There are some alleviations to the current wave of infections. Nearly 80% of seniors have been fully vaccinated, and nearly 90% have received at least one dose. The most vulnerable segment of the population is thus well-protected. People who have caught COVID and who have since recovered are also likely to be at low risk for at least a year after their recovery. In the U.S. this number is between 29 and 30 million: close to 9% of the population. But about 35% of all people over 12 years of age remain unvaccinated. When children under the age of 12 are factored in, the figure is nearly 45%.
Los Angeles County will be re-implementing a mask mandate for indoor public spaces. As the fourth wave gains in intensity, other counties are likely to follow suit in the coming months as the summer ends. The coronavirus is a seasonal virus, which means, just as with the flu, people are more vulnerable to it in the fall and winter. For my own part, I intend to wear a facemask for indoor public areas as the colder weather sets in. The vaccines, while effective, are not perfect, and in addition it may be possible for me to infect others. In any case, the facemasks have shown themselves to be effective in screening out other airborne diseases besides COVID, such as influenza and streptococcus.
Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 190,257,164; # of deaths worldwide: 4,091,251; # of cases U.S.: 34,925,998; # of deaths; U.S.: 624,600.