July 24, 2021

On the Loudoun Heights Trail – No way to predict when COVID will become merely endemic – Backlash against Tennessee’s recall of vaccination outreach – Phil Valentine – Possible revival of mask mandates – Evening statistics

Today I went with AD and others on a hike starting from Keys Gap to the Loudoun Heights Trail down to Split Rock and back, about 12 miles and 1800 feet of elevation gain.  This segment of the AT is quite rocky in spots, but it is well-maintained, like most of the trail; and after the experience of attempting to grope along the Big Savage Hiking Trail a couple of days ago, it was such a relief to be walking on a well-defined path without any hesitation about whether or not I was going in the right direction.  As always, the view of Harpers Ferry from Split Rock was splendid, with even more variety than usual provided by the gaily-colored rafts floating in the confluence of the Shenandoah and Potomac Rivers. 

After the hike several of us discussed plans of the Wanderbirds about the circumstances in which proof of vaccination from participants in club hikes should be required.  The discussion was inconclusive on this matter, but at one point I asked EB, who is an epidemiologist, whether experts had any idea as to when COVID would cease to be classified as a pandemic and assume the status of an endemic disease such as flu or diphtheria.  Sadly, the answer was that there are still too many unknown factors to make any firm estimate.  The disease is raging more or less unchecked in many corners of the world, which means that new variants are continually emerging, and the efficacy of the vaccines against such variants is uncertain.  The increased communicability of the newer variants, such as the Delta variant, means that at this point in order to attain so-called herd immunity we would need about 85% of the population vaccinated instead of the previously recommended 70%.  That simply is not going to happen.  The anti-vaccine movement is too firmly entrenched.  At this stage, through extensive outreach from the Biden administration and through some of the state governments, we have just managed to scrape up a total of 60% of adults fully vaccinated, but that total is not likely to increase significantly in the future. 

As an example, the state of Tennessee may be cited.  It has already been related how the state’s Department of Health fired Michelle Fiscus, its top vaccination official, and abruptly halted its vaccination outreach to minors.  Dr. Lisa Piercey, the state’s Health Commissioner, would not discuss Fiscus’s ousting, but she said yesterday that there may be “fringe and nuanced” situations in which a COVID vaccine may need to be given to a minor without parental permission.  This statement contradicts a claim from Republican lawmakers, who said the health commissioner had previously agreed to stop such a practice.  As the tension mounted, Dr. Piercey perceived that the state was receiving a great deal of negative publicity on account of its high-handed maneuvering, and she evidently decided to rid her eyes of this abomination – so she promptly took a flight to vacation in Greece.

One Tennessee resident at least is belatedly regretting his decision not to receive the vaccine.  Phil Valentine, a conservative radio show host, is currently hospitalized in a critical care unit as a result of pneumonia brought on by the virus.  He needs breathing assistance, although he is not as yet on a ventilator.  His family issued a statement saying that he is now ruing his refusal to get the vaccine and that he intends to advocate the vaccine vigorously when he recovers and is able to get back on the air. 

The delta variant of the coronavirus now accounts for more than 83% of all COVID-19 infections in the country. The vaccines protect people at a high rate against serious illness or death from the variant; but they are not 100% effective and as community spread increases, so do the number of vaccinated Americans who test positive and transmit the virus to others.  The Biden administration is currently discussing with the CDC as to whether or not mask mandates should be re-instated as infections continue to rise.  While it is true that the CDC says that vaccinated persons can resume normal activities without wearing a mask or social distancing, unvaccinated Americans are also dropping their masks in the absence of mask mandates.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 194,362,619; # of deaths worldwide: 4,167,668; # of cases U.S.: 35,182,105; # of deaths; U.S.: 626,700.