Coronavirus predictions, then and now – The obliviousness of school administrators towards teachers – The hazards of being in groups, even out of doors – Hiking in Arlington – A limited degree of socializing – A virus-denier becomes infected – Evening statistics
In looking over my notes I find that Dr. Fauci stated at the end of March that our case count would run well over a million and that the death toll would be between 100,000 and 200,000. At the time such a prediction was considered alarmist. Now we would be thankful to settle for such comparatively modest figures. Our case count will be surpassing five million in a matter of days, and as for our death toll – we will be fortunate indeed if it does not exceed 200,000 by the time the pandemic is over; it is close to 150,000 already.
I spoke with RK last night. She is a teacher in a private school, and she was telling me the plans of the administration concerning how to conduct classrooms during the coming semester. They do not appear to have thought the matter through very thoroughly. They were proposing a system in which students would be staggered in groups who alternate between attending classes in person and logging in from their homes. They do not seem to realize what a burden such a policy would place on the teachers, who in effect would have to teach their lessons twice over. Nor have they taken into account that many teachers are at risk from the virus on account of underlying factors and that several are apprehensive about teaching in crowded classrooms. Unfortunately many schools, following the lead of our national administration, are assuming that the virus will have minimal effects on children and adolescents (which is not true – the median age of COVID-19 patients has lessened considerably over the past two months) and have totally forgotten that the teachers may be at risk.
A cautionary tale for those who, like me, have been spending a large part of their time out of doors during the pandemic: Kanakuk Kamps, a network of Christian camps in Missouri, took the warnings about the virus very seriously and put into place every imaginable safeguard. They ensured that every cabin was equipped with state-of-the-art filtration systems. Other precautions included documented health screenings; daily temperature checks; highly qualified doctors and nurses; hand sanitizer in all buildings; limited access to camp grounds for outsiders; elaborate quarantine protocols; rigorous cleaning; and stringent limits on touching – even a ban on campers exchanging high-fives and holding hands while saying grace. Before camp started, campers and employees also had been urged to self-isolate for two weeks. In short, they were not in the least careless or complacent; one would have said that they did everything right. Nonetheless over 80 campers at the camp near Branson tested positive for the virus within a few days of the beginning of the season, and in the end everyone had to be sent back home. As is typical of such stories, the speed and thoroughness with which the virus infected people is startling. Probably the main factor was the large number of people sharing sleeping and eating areas, but all the same it shows that associating with others in the open air is by no means risk-free.
Nonetheless I went out today in the company of seven other Wanderbirds members on a 6-mile loop led by GS from Glebe Park down to the Pimmit Run and Potomac Heritage Trails. It was good to see GS again after several months; I have known him for a long time and we have led many hikes together. Several other friends as well I have not seen since March at the latest. We wore face masks on the first part of the hike, which went along various streets through several of the older, more well-established neighborhoods in Arlington. People have been settled in this area for a long time (I should say relatively long – perhaps two hundred years or so; but that is a long time by American standards); trees have been allowed to grow in lands that were previously devoted to farming before they became more densely populated. As a result our route had a good deal of shade even before we reached the Pimmit Run Trail. Upon reaching the Potomac Heritage Trail we turned east, towards Roosevelt Island, but turning aside at the Gulf Branch. It was a fairly gentle hike, although not devoid of certain challenges (including a sharp, rocky descent past the Chain Bridge), and we stopped at one point for a brief dip in a water hole of Pimmit Run close to its confluence with the Potomac. The constant shade and continual breezes in the river valley ensured that we were comfortable throughout the hike, despite the high temperatures that prevailed in the less sheltered regions of the metro area.
We had what might be called a modified version of a Wanderbirds hike in the days before the pandemic began: the society of friends during the hike, followed by eating and conversing together when the loop was completed. I spoke with CB while we hiked together; he is a real estate attorney and he was telling me about some possible long-term consequences that the impact of the virus is likely to have, even after the restrictions are completely lifted. Tele-commuting will undoubtedly become much more prevalent, which is both good and bad: less traffic on the roads, but also less office camaraderie and socializing among office workers. Some administrative jobs will disappear, since there will be fewer offices to manage and many of the tasks an administrative assistant performs in an office can be done by the people working from their homes. The skies continue to be unusually clear for the season, with very little haze, and at the end of the hike we relaxed and ate lunch and chatted in the cool shade of the tall trees with their profuse foliage and shafts of brilliant sunlight streaming through the chinks between the leaves.
Yet another politician who denounced the virus as a hoax has learned of its harsh realities the hard way. Jason Rapert, a state senator from Arkansas, has characterized his fellow-legislators imposing restrictions as scare-mongers and has objected in particular to the attempts of enforcing the use of face masks, which he describes as “draconian”. He has tested positive for the virus and is now hospitalized with pneumonia. His attitude appears to have modified somewhat as a result of his experience. On his Twitter account he has posted expressions of gratitude towards well-wishers and, as a token of appreciation, included a photo of himself and his family – all of them wearing face masks.
Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 16,397,306; # of deaths worldwide: 651,580; # of cases U.S.: 4,366,681; # of deaths U.S.: 149,783. We actually have had a case increase of well under 60,000 today. And the daily death toll is 385 – which would have seemed a large amount some weeks ago, but comes as a welcome relief after several days of losses of over 1,000 per day.