On the Austin Mountain and Furnace Mountain Trails – Carpooling – Hay bales – The recount in Arizona – Wuhan Institute – Millennials and home-owning – Reduction in incidence of other viruses – Evening statistics
One would expect a hike organized by the Vigorous Hikers, from the group’s very name, would not fail to produce an occasion for considerable exertion; and so it proved today, when we went up the Austin Mountain Trail, then down to the Doyles River Falls, up again via the Jones River Trail, ascending to Blackrock Mountain, and then returning via the Furnace Mountain Trail. A talus is the main feature of the side of Austin Mountain traversed by the Austin Mountain Trail, which crosses over it numerous times, offering the usual challenges to maintaining balance that walking on fields of scree generally involve; the ascent from the Doyle River to Skyline Drive via the Jones River Trail, though fairly moderate in grade most of the time, goes upwards continually for over 4 miles; and the Furnace Mountain Trail is nearly as rocky as the Austin Mountain Trail. The hike amounts to about 17 miles in length and slightly over 4100 feet in elevation gain. But there are suitable rewards for these efforts. We passed among several groves of mountain laurel in full bloom, and many clusters of columbine as well, there are numerous waterfalls along the descent to Doyle’s River, and the views from Blackrock are some of the best in Shenandoah National Park. When we reached Blackrock, of course, we climbed up the boulders to reach the summit and observe the views of Trayfoot Mountain to the west and Austin Mountain to the north, in addition to the Shenandoah Valley and the Massanutten Mountain beyond. Even though the weather became rather warm in the afternoon, a fresh breeze at the summit cooled us down after the effort of ascending the Jones River Trail.
This particular hike represented another landmark: carpooling for hikes has begun again and, as one of the other hikers volunteered to be the driver, I rode as a passenger on the trips to and from the trailhead – the first time I have done so for about 16 months. How good it felt to be spared the effort of driving after a hike of many miles!
During the drive we passed through the pretty little village of Port Republic, a river port at the confluence of the North and South Rivers, which converge to form the South Fork of the Shenandoah River. It was incorporated as a town in 1802 and was the site of many mills, on account of its proximity to water power. We also saw several hay bales, shaped into cylindrical forms and wrapped in plastic. I was curious enough to look up how such bales are created (and encouraged in such an effort by BR and EP, my fellow-hikers in the car). In earlier times, hay was stacked in a manner that made it waterproof. Eventually the hay would compress under its own weight and “cure” (dry out to such a degree that forestalls development of toxins that would otherwise be created by moist, wet hay). In modern forms a farm machine known as a baler is used to compress cut and raked crops into bales configured to dry. The most common type of bale today is the rounded bale, which are more moisture-resistant and allow the hay to be packed more compactly than square bales. Bales are often encased in wrappers (as was the case with the ones we saw today), which accelerate a fermentation process for better preservation of the hay from rot.
On the ride back we spoke of the recount of the electoral vote in Arizona. EP said that the recount uncovered evidence of 20,000 votes cast by illegal immigrants. I am not certain from which source she obtained this information. I could not find confirmation of it anywhere on the Internet. The audit is still pending and will continue for some time, possibly as late as the end of June. Donald Trump has indeed claimed that the entire database of votes in Maricopa County has been deleted; and he has further alleged that “seals were broken on the boxes that hold the votes, ballots are missing, and worse.” Maricopa County Stephen Richer, a Republican, responded afterwards by calling such claims “unhinged” and “insane lies.” Considering Trump’s track record on such matters (and indeed on all others), I allow that Richer has given a very rational account of the matter; and until someone produces solid evidence, as opposed to mere assertions, of outside interference, I must take such accusations on Trump’s part to be nothing more than examples of his folly, his vanity, and his pride.
We also discussed the possibility of the COVID virus originating from a laboratory in Wuhan rather than from animal-to-human transition, as was originally believed. This hypothesis is becoming increasingly more probable. Lab accidents occur fairly frequently. The Wuhan Institute studies coronaviruses in bats, and it is quite possible that it conducted “gain of function” research, in which diseases are deliberately made more virulent. Virologists have been using such methods for years, despite warnings by various safety experts that they are playing with fire. Moreover, the Institute may well have been conducting such research at the behest of the American medical establishment. Dr. Fauci has admitted that the National Institute of Health earmarked $600,000 for the Wuhan Institute over a five-year period to determine whether bat coronaviruses could be transmitted to humans. If the accusation of the COVID virus emerging from the lab is indeed proved, we can expect shockwaves reverberating for some time to come. The backlash that they will inspire may have the regrettable result of enabling Trump to regain the presidency; he has announced his intention to run for the office in 2024.
My belief that younger generations are contending with more economic difficulties than my own had to deal with received some corroboration today by a poll that suggests that nearly two-thirds of millennials regret having bought a home. High prices and tight inventory have created new affordability challenges for millennials, who have reached peak age for first-time homeownership. The estimates for the housing shortage range from 2.5 to 3.8 million, as a result of contractors under-building houses for about a dozen years, a lumber shortage, and the pandemic. As a result of the intense competition among would-be house-owners, many millennials acquire a home by paying well above market price. A significant number have bought what in my day was known as a “handyman’s special,” i.e., a house whose price was lowered on account of the numerous repairs that it required. Even those with extensive carpentering experience have been forced to pay out much more in fixing up their home than they anticipated. In the poll cited above, 20% of millennial home-owners said that they regretted buying a house on account of expensive maintenance costs, while 13% said that they overpaid for their homes. In addition, more millennials are saddled with crippling amounts of student debt, to the extent of making it impossible for them to obtain enough for a down payment.
Although the pandemic is waning – in the U.K. it is reported that the nation has passed a 24-hour period without a single COVID-related death – certain practices that were used to counter it should probably still be continued. The wearing of facemasks and the use of disinfecting sanitizers has dramatically reduced a large number of childhood ailments. Influenza cases diminished this past year by 99% in Europe, the U.S., and other parts of the Northern Hemisphere. The U.S. recorded just 1 influenza-related death of a child in the 2020/2021 winter season, as opposed to 199 during the preceding winter. Chickenpox cases in the U.S. fell by two-thirds, with similar results in Japan and Europe. The rotavirus, a common cause of diarrhea and vomiting among children, was down this past year by 99% in Japan and by 95% in Germany. The norovirus, another cause of nausea and diarrhea, was down by 94% in Germany this past year. As people weary of the pandemic no doubt many of the preventative measures will no longer be followed; but it still seems advisable to wear facemasks during the winter season, when viral infections are at their peak.
Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 171,899,564; # of deaths worldwide: 3,575,254; # of cases U.S.: 34,133,807; # of deaths; U.S.: 610,380.