What is “normal” body temperature? – Our misaligned social relations – A message of recovery – COVID and obesity – Evening statistics
I omitted in my last entry to mention two moments that stood out during CERT training yesterday. The first occurred when I had my temperature taken as part of check-in. The person reading the thermometer was startled by the results when he took my temperature, and he asked me whether I had done a round of vigorous exercise just before coming to the training area. I had to explain to him that my normal body temperature is typically about a degree below the standard 98.6 degrees.
I was sufficiently curious to see whether there were others in my situation. Apparently it is fairly typical; in fact, the 97.5 – 97.7 degree range may be the “new normal.” The 98.6-degree standard was determined in 1851, at which time a significant number of people suffered from untreated infections such as gum disease, tuberculosis, and syphilis, all of which could have caused persistent fevers. In addition, temperatures at that date were usually taken under the arm rather than by mouth, and thermometers then were probably not as accurate as those made today. The data thus may have been skewed when compared to that collected by modern measurement methods. In any case, body temperatures fluctuate a bit on any given day, and a discrepancy of a degree in either direction does not appear to be serious.
The other came when one of the trainers was talking about how it was important to be prepared when confronted by cultural differences when attempting to rescue people. As an example she mentioned that she had been in situations when a person in difficulties was reluctant to accept aid from her because she was black. I was shocked when I heard this, whereas her own attitude was essentially: “Hey, it happens, that’s one reason we go in teams.” But to me It reinforced the message that Martin Luther King once gave: when injustice is endemic in a society, the entire society suffers. Whenever a black person meets someone for the first time, he must undergo a moment of doubt as to whether this new acquaintance is going to accept him as a person rather than a representative of his race. As long as this impasse prevails, we’ll never make any real progress in social relations.
On a less depressing note, President Biden is directing all states to open coronavirus vaccine eligibility to all adults no later than May 1st, a step he will say could allow for small Independence Day gatherings on July 4th. This measure will represent the most aggressive step towards re-opening to date. Even so, the gatherings will be limited: barbecues in the backyard rather than massive crowds at a stadium watching fireworks. By the end of May the supply of vaccines should be sufficient to provide inoculation for every person who wants it. The timing of the distribution is another story, particularly in rural areas. I myself know several people who have been awaiting their turn to get vaccinated with no sign of being able to make an appointment for one for at least several weeks. The rollout in Virginia has certainly accelerated this week. All the same, of the 308,086 people who are currently registered in Fairfax County for the vaccine, 111,453 are still on the waitlist – and these all must receive their vaccines for completion of Phase 1b.
During the hike on Tuesday, one member of the group and I discussed the question of why the rate of infection and death from COVID is much less in countries such as India. We speculated about many possible explanations, but we overlooked the most obvious one. The World Obesity Federation recently issued a report showing a clear link between excess body weight, obesity in particular, and COVID-19 mortality. Being overweight was more predictive of severe COVID-19 illness than any factor with the exception of age. In countries where less than half the adult population was classified as overweight, the risk of death from the coronavirus was about one-tenth the level found in nations where more than half are overweight or obese. Mexico, for example, has an age distribution comparable to India’s. But only 3.9% of India’s adult population is categorized as obese, whereas Mexico’s obesity rate is 28.9%. The correlation between obesity and risk of COVID-related infection and death is borne out by a comparison of the two countries’ rates: India has little over half of the infections per capita than Mexico’s and well under one-tenth of the deaths.
The U.S., incidentally, has an obesity rate of 42.4%. The rate has been steadily rising; in 2008 the obesity rate was a comparatively modest 26%. As recently as 2012, no state had an adult obesity rate above 35%; in 2000 no state had an adult obesity rate above 25%.
Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 119,097,838; # of deaths worldwide: 2,640,870; # of cases U.S.: 29,922,897; # of deaths; U.S.: 543,599.