March 30, 2021

On the Bull Run/Occoquan Trail again – Does facemask wearing apply to the vaccinated? – The millennials compared with the baby boomers – Protestors at Salem, OR – Eric Trump in sorrow – Summer Zervos – Suez Canal unblocked – Tragedy continues in Myanmar – Evening statistics

(A somewhat longer entry than usual, since I was too tired to write one yesterday.)

I was on the Bull Run/Occoquan Trail again today, this time on the southern portion starting from Fountainhead.  I went with the Vigorous Hikers from the southern terminus to Kincheloe Soccer Park, where we had lunch and then turned back.  It was about 16 miles in all, with more than 2450 feet of elevation gain.  We went at a brisk but not a killing pace (about 3 MPH) and the weather couldn’t have been more cooperative:  cloudless sky, no wind, low humidity, temperatures approaching 70 degrees.  “It doesn’t get any better than this,” I remarked to MB as we were striding over the last mile of the hike, and she enthusiastically agreed.  During our return from the soccer field we met several members from the Wanderbirds group, who had started later.  At the trailhead itself we also met GP, the grand old man of hiking (as I call him), along with his wife BH.  I have already mentioned how, despite the fact that he celebrated his 90th birthday this past December, he is still ascending and descending on the mountain trails.  He is, as he once told me, resigned to the fact that he is slower now than he had been in his prime.  But to remain inactive, to sit at home all day – unthinkable!  If my years prove to be equal to his, I can only hope that my attitude will be as positive.

RB, one of the Wanderbirds members I met on the return, said that she had never been on the trail before.  That remark puzzled me at first, for the Wanderbirds schedule has long featured an annual hike on the Bull Run/Occoquan Trail.  Then the explanation dawned on me:  the longer hike always began at Bull Run Marina and the moderate hike began at Hemlock Overlook, both of them ending at Bull Run Regional Park (the northern terminus).  It was quite reasonable, therefore, that RB had never seen the segment between Fountainhead and Hemlock Overlook.  I was reminded of an incident that occurred during one of the previous Wanderbirds hikes on this trail.  The Wanderbirds always offered the option of completing the entire length of the trail, provided anyone who chose this option could do so without delaying the majority of the hikers as they gathered at the bus awaiting us at the end of the hike.  On one year, when I selected this option, I was the only one who did so – as I thought.  After I got off of the bus I decided to set myself a challenge and try to complete the trail in 4½ hours; the trail at the time was 18 miles in length (it has since been rerouted slightly, and is now somewhat longer).  Shortly after I left the bus, WG decided that she also would attempt this option.  Had I been aware of this in advance, I would have waited for her.  As it was, however, I thought that I was on my own and went on with all due speed to achieve my goal.  She tried to catch up, asking hikers going in the opposite direction if they had encountered me.  I was about 500 yards ahead, was the answer to the first inquiry; I was about 1000 yards ahead, was the answer to the second.  When she asked a third couple whether they had seen me, they responded, “Oh!  You must mean the Man with a Mission.”  I suppose my expression had an appearance of concentration as I pacing ahead.  At that point she gave up and went on in solitude.  So I was quite taken by surprise when I arrived at the bus and was asked whether I had seen her.  Happily, she came in not much later than I did. 

During this hike we discussed among us how the vaccine would impact social matters generally.  BF, who is a surgeon, said that he does not wear a facemask when he sees patients.  His argument is that seeing the doctor’s face instead of a facemask gives his patients more confidence and that, according to the CDC, vaccinated persons cannot transmit the disease to others.  I can understand his position with regard to meeting people on an individual basis; but for my part, I intend to go on wearing a facemask in public places.  I’m not entirely assured that vaccinated people do not transmit the virus, no matter what the CDC might say.  The tests for the vaccines, as far as I can make out, concentrated primarily on how effective they were for ensuring that the severity of the virus if caught would be at so low a level as not to require hospitalization.  Whether or not vaccinated people could unknowingly become infected with the disease and then transmit it to others was at best a secondary consideration.  In any case, people will not obey a mask mandate in which some people are required to wear a mask and others are not.  For that matter, the CDC has expressed concern in the manner that several states have abandoned the mask mandates, with some reason.  In recent days the deceleration of the rate of increase has come to a halt and there has even been a reversing trend; new COVID cases have gone up 15% in the past two weeks.

My impression that matters are more difficult for generations younger than my own has been borne out by a recent report about the status of the older “millennials,” as they are called.  The eldest of these turn 40 this year.  Nearly 60% of them are homeowners, while 28% still rent, and the remaining 12% live with their parents or other family relatives.  Unsurprisingly, homeownership rates among black and Hispanic older millennials lag behind their white counterparts, as do rates among those who don’t have a college degree. Overall, homeownership rates among older millennials are lower than those of earlier generations.  This trend will affect the generations to come as well.  Children of homeowners are more likely to become homeowners themselves; with more people renting, it seems probable that a greater number of their descendants will become renters in turn.  Since rental payments are a good deal more volatile than fixed mortgage payments, we may see a situation thirty or forty years from now in which a large number of senior citizens face unstable conditions that render them uncertain from one year to the next whether they can afford to live in their current residence.  Savings rates, also, are lower among millennials – not because the millennials are reckless spenders, as the stereotype would lead us to believe, but because a significant number of them are saddled with student debt.  About 59% have saved $15,000 or more, and nearly 25% have saved $100,000 or more.  But the net worth of the average American millennial is less than $8,000.  Median household wealth was roughly 25% lower for those ages 20 to 35 in 2016 than it was for the same age group in 2007.  When adjustments for inflation are made, millennials earn 20% less than baby boomers did at their age. 

Antifa is currently holding a mass protest at the state Capitol in Salem, Oregon.  Those who have been driving by reported to police that their vehicles had been damaged by paint-filled balloons, rocks, and other hard objects being thrown at them as they passed.  Some pointed green lasers at the drivers.  About 200 protestors were equipped with riot gear, as well as handguns, bats, and various other weapons as they headed towards the Capitol.  Police issued a warning to the protestors for – try to take a guess.  Violation of gun laws?  Vandalism?  Assault?  Destruction of private property?  No – none of these.  The warning the protestors received was that they were attending an event without a permit.  So, obviously, if you want to smash other people’s cars, brandish handguns in public, and blind people with lasers, make sure that you first obtain permission from the state government for the occasion.

Eric Trump is heartbroken.  There is no reason to doubt it, for he said so himself.  The reason?  Well, long before he became President, Biden had established a pattern of commuting from Washington to Wilmington, Delaware (a trip that takes approximately 75 minutes by train or 2 hours by car) on weekends while serving in the Senate.  He continued this practice when he became Vice-President and now, having commuted to Wilmington three times in the past seven weeks, seems poised to do the same as President.  This circumstance has plunged Eric Trump into a state of existential despair, as he confided to an interviewer from Fox News.  But perhaps he can find solace in the fact that his own father visited a Trump Organization property, on an average, of once every 3.4 days of his four-year term. He went to one of his properties on 240 of the 418 weekend days of his presidency, i.e., 57% of his weekend days. And he played more than 250 rounds of golf in his term, about one round every 5.6 days.

If this circumstance distresses Eric to such a degree, one can imagine his reaction to the news that New York’s highest court ruled that Summer Zervos may be allowed to sue Donald Trump for defamation after he publicly called a liar for her allegations of sexual assault.  Zervos is a former contestant on “The Apprentice” who came forward with such claims during the 2016 presidential campaign.  Her suit could make no headway as long as Trump was a sitting president, but now that he is a private citizen Zervos will undoubtedly be added to the large number of litigants bringing lawsuits against him.

The Ever Given, the ship that clogged the Suez Canal, was unstuck at last yesterday.  The operation required some care. While the Ever Given was stuck, the rising and falling tides put stress on the vessel, which is 400 meters (a quarter mile) long, raising concerns it could crack.  Now other ships are able to pass through the canal again.  But there is a backlog of over 420 vessels waiting to go through at either end, and it will take at least ten days to clear it.  Dozens of others have taken the long alternate route around the Cape of Good Hope at Africa’s southern tip – a 5,000-kilometer (3,100-mile) detour that costs ships hundreds of thousands of dollars in fuel and in other expenses.

The death toll in Myanmar has now surpassed 520.  International pressure against the junta is finally mounting.  Saturday was the bloodiest day, resulting in 141 deaths; but the military has shot down protestors relentlessly on every day that followed.  Suu Kyi remains in detention at an undisclosed location.  Various other nations, including even China, have expressed concern.  The Biden administration has announced that the 2013 Trade and Investment Framework Agreement would remain suspended until democracy is restored.  The UN Security Council will meet tomorrow to discuss the matter and to determine methods of putting more pressure on the military government to restore the Suu Kyi administration that it has overturned.

Yesterday’s statistics as of 9:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  128,202,572; # of deaths worldwide: 803,547; # of cases U.S.: 31,028,438; # of deaths; U.S.:  563,168.